City of Piedmont
COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
DATE: June 1, 2026
TO: Mayor and Council
FROM: Rosanna Bayon Moore, City Administrator
SUBJECT: Informational Report Regarding MTC / ABAG Priority Sites Technical Assistance Grant and Transit Feasibility Study
RECOMMENDATION
Receive informational report regarding MTC / ABAG Priority Sites Technical Assistance Grant and resulting Transit Feasibility Study.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As part of the Association of Bay Area Governments and Metropolitan Transportation Commission (ABAG / MTC) Priority Sites Grant Program, Sam Tabibnia with Fehr & Peers transportation engineers and planners have prepared a Transit Feasibility Study for bus service to the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan area. The Transit Feasibility Study estimates the potential ridership and costs of providing expanded bus service. The purpose of this report is to brief the City Council on the results of the Priority Sites Grant Transit Feasibility Study. No action by the City Council is requested.
BACKGROUND
The Moraga Canyon area is not currently served directly by transit service. The nearest existing bus stop with regular bus service is located at the Oakland Avenue/Highland Avenue intersection, about 0.8 miles walking distance from the Moraga Canyon area (approximately a 15- to 20-minute walk). To support future transit service, the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan includes identification of a location for a new bus stop in the Specific Plan Area. Providing transit service, however, is not a policy requirement for development in the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan area.
On July 12, 2023, the City of Piedmont applied for Priority Development Area (PDA) designation for land in Moraga Canyon and along Grand Avenue. The application was accepted by ABAG / MTC, which made the sites eligible for technical assistance with a focus on implementation of the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan. The technical assistance has been provided in the form of consultant services, managed by Aaron Welch Planning (AWP) under contract with ABAG / MTC. Subconsultants to AWP and the grant included Fehr & Peers, as well as Economic Planning Systems and BKF Engineering. The Priority Sites technical assistance work began at the end of 2024 and includes the preparation of a transit feasibility study for the MCSP area.
ANALYSIS
Underlying much of the state and regional land use planning mandates in recent years is the concept of focusing future Bay Area development growth in urbanized locations and at densities that support transit ridership. The advantages of providing a reliable and affordable alternative transit service to residents, people employed in the community, and visitors are that for the rider, it is less expensive than travel by private vehicle. It helps avoid additional vehicle congestion, reduces the generation of vehicle-related greenhouse gases, and mitigates parking impacts of new developments. The provision of transit service, however, is costly and typically requires significant public subsidy. Most Bay Area transit providers are currently under severe financial strain, and their ability to expand service is limited.
To help inform potential service improvements, and the magnitude of potential costs to provide service, Fehr & Peers evaluated conditions, routes, and ridership in late 2025. The report considered three possible transit alternatives to expand bus service to Moraga Canyon, as shown in Table 1 below.
The three alternatives described in Table 1 and the Transit Feasibility Study (Attachment A) would improve transit access to the Moraga Canyon area, with different costs, service coverage, and operational complexity. The shuttle service provides the highest ridership and nearest access but at the highest overall cost. Extending existing AC Transit Line 88 offers a comparatively lowercost improvement with moderate walking distance.
Funding strategies for covering the costs of the expanded service were not part of the consultant’s scope of work. As a practical matter, given the current financial stress that most public transit Agenda Report Page 2
providers are facing, transit agencies themselves should not be expected to cover additional costs in the near future. In addition, the City’s current programmatic priorities and budget outlook do not support a new program of this nature. In the longer term, transportation systems are expected to rapidly evolve, with future autonomous vehicle transit potentially more cost effective due to reduced staff costs and smaller vehicles.
FISCAL IMPACT
This is an informational item. The technical assistance grant and preparation of the Transit Feasibility Study have no negative impact on the City’s budget.
By: Jeff Bond, Interim Planning and Building Director
Pierce Macdonald, Senior Planner
ATTACHMENTS
Attachment A Transit Feasibility Study, dated December 16, 2025 Agenda Report Page 3
2201 Broadway, Suite 602 Oakland, CA 94612
Memo
Date: December 16, 2025
To: Pierce McDonald, City of Piedmont
From: Sam Tabibnia, Fehr & Peers
Subject: Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study OK25-0596.01
This memorandum explores the feasibility of providing transit service to the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan area in the City of Piedmont to expand travel options besides private automobile for future residents of the Specific Plan areas as well as existing residents of the surrounding areas. The Specific Plan envisions the development of up to 200 residential dwelling units near the Moraga Avenue/Red Rock Road intersection.
The Moraga Canyon area is not currently served directly by bus transit service. The nearest bus stop with regular bus service located at the Oakland Avenue/Highland Avenue intersection, about 0.8 miles walking distance from the Moraga Canyon area.
Fehr & Peers evaluated the feasibility of three alternatives for providing transit service closer to the Moraga Canyon Specific Plan area. Table 1 summarizes these alternatives, along with the estimated daily ridership increase, net annual cost, and the annual cost per new rider.
Table 1. Alternatives Comparison
Alternative Nearest Bus Stop to
Moraga Canyon
Net Daily
Ridership
Increase
Net
Annual
Cost
Annual Cost
per New Rider
1. Extend AC Transit
Line 88 to Moraga
Avenue/Mesa
Avenue
Intersection
Moraga Avenue/
Mesa Avenue
intersection
(0.4-mile walk)
55 $276,000 $5,000
2. Extend AC Transit
Line P to Montclair
Moraga Avenue/Red
Rock Road
intersection
(adjacent)
60 $338,000 $5,600
3. New shuttle service
between Moraga
Canyon, Central
Piedmont, and
Broadway/Pleasant
Valley Avenue
Moraga Avenue/Red
Rock Road
intersection
(adjacent)
85 $437,000 $5,100
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 4
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 2 The three alternative describes above would improve transit access to the Moraga Canyon area, with different cost-effectiveness, service coverage, and operational complexity. The shuttle service provides the highest ridership and closest access but at the highest overall cost, while extending Line 88 offers a comparatively lower-cost improvement with moderate walking distance. These findings can inform future decisions regarding transit investments associated with the Specific Plan.
The remainder of this memorandum describes existing transit conditions and provides more detail on the three alternatives evaluated, including the estimated ridership and cost.
Existing Conditions
Figure 1 shows the existing transit service near the Moraga Canyon area. The following AC Transit lines provide the nearest regular transit service:
• Line 88 is a local route connecting Piedmont with Downtown Oakland and Downtown Berkeley. Within Piedmont, it operates on Highland Avenue, Highland Way, and Oakland Avenue. Line 88 operates 7 days per week. On weekdays, it operates from 5:10 AM to 12:50 AM with 20-minute headways before 9:30 PM and 30-minute headways after 9:30 PM. On Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, Line 88 operates from 6:00 AM to 1:00 AM with generally 30-minute headways. Within Piedmont, Line 88 has 14 stops and carries about 175 weekday riders (Fall 2024). The nearest Line 88 stop to the Moraga Canyon area is on Oakland Avenue just west of Highland Avenue, about 0.8 miles walking distance.
Figure 1: Existing Transit Service in Piedmont
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 5
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 3 • Line P provides Transbay service connecting the City of Piedmont to the Salesforce Transit Center in San Francisco. Within Piedmont, it operates on Highland Avenue, Highland Way, and Oakland Avenue. Line P only operates on weekdays with seven bus runs from Piedmont to San Francisco during the morning commute period (6:20 AM to 9:10 AM) and seven bus runs from San Francisco to Piedmont during the afternoon peak commute period (4:30 PM to 7:00 PM). Within Piedmont, Line P has 13 stops and carries about 129 weekday riders (Fall 2024). The nearest Line P stop to the Moraga Canyon area is on Oakland Avenue just west of Highland Avenue, about 0.8 miles walking distance.
In addition, the following two school service lines operate closer to the Moraga Canyon area. • Line 606 stops at the Highland Avenue/Moraga Avenue intersection, about 0.4 miles walking distance west of the Moraga Canyon area, and provides service through Piedmont and into Oakland to Head-Royce School.
• Line 696 has a stop at the Harbord Drive/Moraga Avenue intersection, about 0.5 miles walking distance east of the Moraga Canyon area, and provides service through Oakland between Montclair and Oakland Technical High School.
Although open to the public, these lines operate only on school days and during bell times and therefore provide limited utility for general travel.
Transit Service Alternatives
A key constraint to extending fixed-route transit service to the Moraga Canyon area is the lack of suitable bus turnaround locations along Moraga Avenue between Highland Avenue and State Route
13. Forty-foot buses must either loop near Highland Avenue or continue east to Montclair to reverse direction.
This section describes the three alternatives under consideration in more detail. Appendix A provides the detailed calculations used to estimate ridership and cost for each of the alternatives.
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 6
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 4 Alternative 1 - Extend AC Transit Line 88 to Moraga Avenue/Mesa Avenue Intersection
Figure 2 shows the bus route under this alternative where the current AC Transit Line 88 would be extended to the Highland Avenue/Mesa Avenue Intersection. After completing the Highland AvenueHighland Way loop, buses would continue north on Highland Avenue, turn right on Moraga Avenue, and use Mesa Avenue and Park Way to loop back onto Highland Avenue, turn right onto Oakland Avenue, and continue the remainder of the line to Downtown Oakland and Downtown Berkeley.
This alternative would place the nearest bus stop to the Moraga Canyon area at the Moraga Avenue/ Mesa Avenue Intersection, about 0.4 miles walk from the Moraga Canyon area. The extension would add six new bus stops, increase the roundtrip travel distance by about 0.75 miles, and the travel time for each bus run by about four minutes, which represents an approximately three percent increase in typical travel time for each roundtrip bus run.
This alternative is estimated to generate approximately 55 new daily riders at an annual operating cost of $276,000, or approximately $5,000 per new rider per year.
Figure 2: Alternative 1 - Extend AC Transit Line 88 to
Moraga Avenue/Mesa Avenue Intersection
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 7
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 5 Alternative 2 - Extend AC Transit Line P to Montclair
Figure 3 shows the bus route under this alternative where the current AC Transit Transbay Line P would be extended to Montclair District in Oakland along Moraga Avenue. This alternative would eliminate the current Highland Avenue-Highland Way loop and instead direct buses to use Highland Avenue and Moraga Avenue to Thornhill Drive-Mountain Boulevard-La Salle Avenue-Moraga Avenue where buses can reverse direction and loop back to Highland Avenue and Oakland Avenue and continue to the Salesforce Transit Center in San Francisco.
This alternative would allow direct service to the Moraga Canyon area with bus stops in both directions of Moraga Avenue at Red Rock Road. This alternative would eliminate three existing bus stops and add 16 new bus stops, increase the roundtrip travel distance by about 4.1 miles, and the travel time for each bus run by about 21 minutes, which represents an approximately 50 percent increase in typical travel time for each one-way bus run to or from San Francisco.
This alternative is estimated to generate approximately 60 new daily bus riders at an annual cost of $338,000, or approximately $5,600 per new rider per year.
Figure 3: Alternative 2 - Extend AC Transit Line P to Montclair Attachment A Agenda Report Page 8
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 6 Alternative 3 – New Shuttle Service between Moraga Canyon, Central Piedmont, and Broadway/Pleasant Valley Avenue intersection Figure 4 shows the shuttle route proposed under this alternative. A 12-person shuttle would operate in a loop along Highland Avenue, Moraga Avenue, and Pleasant Valley Avenue to connect the Moraga Canyon area and Central Piedmont to the Safeway Shopping Center at the Broadway/Pleasant Valley Avenue intersection. The shuttle would also connect to the Broadway corridor, which is a short walk from the Safeway Shopping Center and served by frequent bus service to Downtown Oakland in the south and Rockridge commercial district and BART station in the north.
The shuttle would directly service the Moraga Canyon area with bus stops at the Moraga Avenue/Red Rock Road intersection.
This alternative assumes that one 12-person shuttle would operate on weekdays from 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM at approximately 35-minute headways. The shuttle would have 20 stops, a roundtrip travel distance of about 5.4 miles, with each loop estimated to take about 26 minutes.
The shuttle is estimated to have about 85 daily riders at an annual cost of $437,000 (assuming that it is operated by a third-party vendor), or approximately $5,100 per new rider per year. The proposed shuttle service is estimated to have minimal effect on existing bus ridership because it would provide service to an area currently not served by transit and not duplicate any existing bus service.
Figure 4: Alternative 3 - New Shuttle Service
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 9
Moraga Canyon Specific Plan – Transit Feasibility Study | 7 Ridership and Cost Estimates
Appendix A presents the detailed ridership and cost estimates for the three alternatives described above. Ridership estimates were developed primarily based on existing transit ridership levels along the two current bus routes in the City of Piedmont, as well as the residential population along these routes. The analysis assumes that populations along the expanded bus routes in Piedmont and Oakland would generate transit trips at rates comparable to those along the existing bus services in Piedmont. Accordingly, the ridership estimates reflect the additional population served by the proposed service expansion, incorporating factors such as development density and accessibility to bus stops, and are further adjusted to account for transit service characteristics, including service headways. The Alternative 2 (Line P expansion) ridership estimate conservatively only accounts for the segment of the expanded service west of SR 13, because the segment east of SR 13 is already served by Transbay Line V.
The cost estimate for the two bus service expansion alternatives (Alternatives 1 and 2) were developed based on the incremental increase in the revenue service hours multiplied by AC Transit’s average hourly operating cost for local and Transbay service as documented in the MTC Transit 2050+ Report.
1 The cost estimate for the shuttle service alternative (Alternative 3) was estimated through discussions with a local private shuttle operator.
Attachments: Detailed Ridership and Cost Estimates
1 https://mtc.ca.gov/planning/long-range-planning/plan-bay-area-2050/transit-2050-plus Attachment A Agenda Report Page 10
P
Appendix A.
Detailed Ridership and
Cost Estimates
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 11
Alternative 1 - AC Transit Local Line 88 Extension to Moraga Ave Route
Local Line 88
1. Route Description
Existing Service
A. Service Times 5AM - 12AM Source: AC Transit for Line 88 B. Days of Operations M-F Source: AC Transit for Line 88 C. Daily Service Hours 19.0 Source: AC Transit for Line 88 D. Service Headway (min) 20.0 Source: AC Transit for Line 88 E. Operating Speed (mph) 12.0 Source: Estimated based on distance and schedule including stops F. Current Roundtrip Travel Time (min) 120.0 Source: AC Transit for Line 88 G. Total Daily Bus Roundtrips 57 (60*C)/D
Proposed Service
H. Roundtrip Extension Length (mi) 0.75 Source: Google Maps I. Route Removal (mi) 0 Source: Google Maps
J. Net Route Length Change (mi) 0.75 H + I
K. Increase in Runtime per Roundtrip (min) 4.0 J / (E*60) L. Increase in Revenue Hours (veh-hr) 3.8 G*K/60
2. Cost Estimate
M. Cost per Service Hour ($/veh-hr) $ 279.17 Source: (1) N. Cost per Day ($/veh-day) $ 1,060.85 L * N
O. Cost per Year ($/veh-yr) $ 275,800.00 N * 260 days
3. Ridership Estimate
P. Residential Households within 1/4 mile of Existi 2,360 Source: GIS Q. Households within 1/4 mile of Extended Service 550 Source: GIS R. New Households in Moraga Canyon 199 Source: Moraga Canyon Specific Plan S. Total Household Served by new service 749 Q + R
S. Daily Boardings along Current Route in Piedmon 175 Source: AC Transit, Fall 2024 Ridership T. Boarding per HH 0.074 S / P
U. Net New Boarding 56 T * S
V. Cost per rider $ 5,000.00 O / U
4. Ridership Estimate Check
Based on Elasticity in Change in Service
X. Low 0.6 Source: (2)
Y. High 1.0 Source: (2)
Z. Existing Route Length in Piedmont 1.9 Source: Google Maps AA. % Change in Route Length 39.9% J / Z
BB. Net New Boarding - low 42 S * X * AA
CC. Net New Boarding - high 70 S * Y * AA
Notes:
(1). Average AC Transit Operating cost per hour for local service as summarized for MTC Transit 2050+ (2). Richard Pratt and John Evans (2004), Bus Routing and Coverage: Traveler Response to Transport System Changes, Chapter 10; Report 95, Transit Cooperative Research Program; Transportation Research Board (www.trb.org); at http://gulliver.trb.org/publications/tcrp/tcrp_rpt_95c1 Description
Reroute to also run north along Highland Ave from Oakland Ave, continue to Moraga Ave, and loop through to Mesa Av back to Highland Ave and Oakland Ave Attachment A Agenda Report Page 12
Alternative 2 - AC Transit Transbay Line P Extension to Montclair Route
Transbay Line P
1. Route Description
Existing Service
A. Service Times 6:20AM - 9:10AM &
4:30PM - 7:00PM
Source: AC Transit for Line P
B. Days of Operations M-F Source: AC Transit for Line P C. Daily Service Hours 5.5 Source: AC Transit for Line P D. Service Headway (min) 25.0 Source: AC Transit for Line P E. Operating Speed on Local Street (mph) 12.0 Source: Estimated based on distance and schedule including stops F. Current Roundtrip Travel Time (min) 68.0 Source: AC Transit for Line P G. Total Daily Bus Roundtrips 12 (60*C)/D
Proposed Service
H. Roundtrip Extension Length (mi) 4.5 Source: Google Maps I. Route Removal (mi) -0.4 Source: Google Maps
J. Net Route Length Change (mi) 4.1 H + I
K. Increase in Runtime per Roundtrip (min) 21.0 J / (E*60) L. Increase in Revenue Hours (veh-hr) 4.2 G*K/60
2. Cost Estimate
M. Cost per Service Hour ($/veh-hr) $ 309.12 Source: (1) N. Cost per Day ($/veh-day) $ 1,298.32 L * N
O. Cost per Year ($/veh-yr) $ 337,600.00 N * 260 days
3. Ridership Estimate
P. Residential Households within 1/4 mile of Existin 2,360 Source: GIS Q. Households within 1/4 mile of Extended Service 910 Source: GIS R. New Households in Moraga Canyon 199 Source: Moraga Canyon Specific Plan S. Total Household Served by new service 1,109 Q + R
S. Daily Boardings along Current Route in Piedmon 129 Source: AC Transit, Fall 2024 Ridership T. Boarding per HH 0.055 S / P
U. Net New Boarding 61 T * S
V. Cost per rider $ 5,600.00 O / U
Notes:
(1). Average AC Transit Operating cost per hour for Transbay service as summarized for MTC Transit 2050+ Description
Eliminate the Highland Ave-Highland Way loop and Reroute to run north along Highland Ave from Oakland Ave. Continue east on Moraga Ave and turn right on Thornhill Dr., Loop through Mountain Blvd and La Salle Ave to return back to Moraga Ave and Highland Avenue to Oakland Ave.
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 13
Alternative 3 - New Shuttle Service
Route
Shuttle Service
1. Route Description
A. Service Times 7AM - 7PM
B. Days of Operations M-F
C. Daily Service Hours 12.0
D. Service Headway (min) 35.0
E. Operating Speed (mph) 15.0 Source: Estimated based on distance and schedule including stops F. Roundtrip Travel Distance (mi) 5.4 Source: Google Maps G. Round Trip Travel Time (min) 26 F / (E/60) + 5 min
H. Total Daily Shuttle Roundtrips 20 (60*C)/D
I. Daily Roundtrips per Shuttle 20
J. Number of Shuttles 1 H / I
K. Miles per day 108 F * H
L. Vehicle Hours of Service (VHS) 12.0 C * J
2. Cost Estimate
M. Hourly Rate $140.00 Source: Discussions with Altrans, 2025 N. Daily Rate $1,680.00 M * C
O. Annual Cost $436,800.00 N * 260
3. Ridership Estimate
P. Households within 1/4 mile of Service 1,420 Source: GIS Q. New Households in Moraga Canyon 199 Source: Moraga Canyon Specific Plan R. Total households Served 1,619 P + Q
S. Boarding per HH 0.074 Same as Alt 1
T. Headway Elasticity 0.5 Source (1)
U. Base Hourly Service Rate 3 Base service rate (3 vehicles per hour) V. Proposed Hourly Service Rate 1.71 60 / D
W. Headway Elasticity Adjustment -57% - V / U
X. % change in Ridership -29% W * T
Y. Adjusted Boarding Rate 0.053 S * (1+X)
Z. Ridership 86 Y * R
Cost per rider $ 5,100.00 O / Z
Notes:
(1).
Description
Loop along Highland Avenue, Moraga Avenue, and Pleasant Valley Avenue. It would connect the Moraga Canyon area and Central Piedmont to the Safeway Shopping Center at the Broadway/Pleasant Valley Avenue intersection
Paul Redelmeier and Ahmed El-Geneidy (2024), “If You Cut It Will They Ride? Longitudinal Examination of the Elasticity of Public Transport Ridership in the Post-Pandemic Era,” Transportation Research Record, (https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981241240754).
Attachment A Agenda Report Page 14