• Pomona Police Department • Revenue Projections August 18, 2025 ATTACHMENT NO. 3
PARKING CITATION REVENUE PROJECTIONS
Executive Summary
Based on Pomona’s recent issuance levels (11,500 citations in 2024; 5,700 citations Jan–Jun 2025) and a $56.50 fee per citation, we project gross citation revenue between ~$0.81M and ~$1.30M in Year 1, depending on ramp-up intensity, with steady gains in Year 2 as staffing remains consistent and routes mature. These projections reflect industry-observed uplifts when moving from under-resourced, police-managed programs to professionalized private enforcement with reliable staffing and data-driven deployment. Benchmarks from comparable cities show revenue increases ranging from 50% to well over 200% after outsourcing, largely attributable to consistent coverage and expanded enforcement windows.
Pomona baseline
• 2024 citations: 11,500
• Fee per citation: $56.50
• 2024 gross revenue baseline: $649,750 (11,500 × $56.50) Note: 2025 YTD (Jan–Jun) is 5,700 citations. Annualized, that’s ~11,400—consistent with 2024.
We therefore use 11,500 as the baseline for forward projections.
Three-year projections (gross, before
dismissals/appeals/collection leakage)
Assumptions (industry-informed):
• Conservative: +25% citations Year 1 (staffing consistency only), +10% Year 2 (route/beat optimization), flat Year 3.
• Base: +50% Year 1 (consistency + scheduling + beat design), +10% Year 2, flat Year 3. • Aggressive: +100% Year 1 (adds expanded hours/coverage and strong compliance initiatives), +10% Year 2, then −5% in Year 3 as compliance improves.
Recommendation
For budgeting, we recommend using the Base scenario for FY1 –FY3, with an 80% realization planning factor for net revenue. We’ll stand up a monthly dashboard to track citations per PEO, coverage hours by zone, payment rates, dismissals, and appeals so we can jointly true -up projections after Q1 and refine beats accordingly.
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Scenario Year Projected Citations Gross Revenue (@ $56.50) Conservative Y1 14,375 $812,188
Y2 15,813 $893,435
Y3 15,813 $893,435
Base Y1 17,250 $974,625
Y2 18,975 $1,072,088
Y3 18,975 $1,072,088
Aggressive Y1 23,000 $1,299,500
Y2 25,300 $1,429,450
Y3 24,035 $1,357,978
These are gross projections (issued × fee). Actual net depends on dismissal rates, collections performance, and amnesty/appeal outcomes. For planning, many cities assume 70–85% realization.
For example, the Base scenario at 80% realization yields: Y1 $779,700, Y2 $857,670, Y3 $857,670.
How LAZ will deliver the uplift - Summary of Approach
✓ Stable, fully staffed coverage to eliminate gaps that historically suppress citation volume (even modest per-officer productivity gains drive material revenue increases). ✓ Beat design & enforcement expansion aligned with violation heatmaps. ✓ Consistent officer productivity with route optimization and clear KPIs (issuance rate, coverage, citation ac curacy). Industry practice ties consistent enforcement to revenue stability.
✓ Citations integrity & community balance: calibrated warnings -to-citations policies during ramp-up, focusing on compliance rather than revenue as the end goal mitigating concerns seen in other jurisdictions.