10/23/2024
Dear Portola Valley Town Council members, Interim Town Manager, Finance Director, Town Attorney, Finance Committee, and other interested parties,
Below I've compared the revenue forecasts from our budgets (here) to the ‘Actual’/‘Unaudited’ projections from the fiscal forecast from Tony (here). (The breakdowns aren't exactly comparable, so I've kept them mostly separate, but the totals should be comparable.)
The most salient point is that we have forecast a revenue shortfall of $1.7M for FY22-23 + FY23-24.
This is following revenue coming in over expectations by $458k for FY20-21 + FY21-22. And note that this is purely about revenue, nothing to do with increased expenses for Sheriff, Housing and Safety Elements, etc.
Tony has said that staff are still working on updating revenue for the unaudited years, including in answer to Karen Vahtra's questions about several discrepancies such as fees dropping in 22-23 and property taxes dropping in 23-24 (here).
Important questions to ask at this point:
1. Is the revenue shortfall real? Or is it primarily due to journal entries that haven't been posted yet?
2. If the revenue shortfall is real, what is the reason? Which line items were off in the budgets?
3. What is the range of expectation for the 7/1/2024 General Fund balance? I think Tony has communicated that $1.58M is probably a lower bound. Might it increase to $3M or $4M? Regards,
Ronny Krashinsky
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