VMT Activity Data
Source: Fehr & Peers
2016 2019 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
daily VMT 2,408,283 2,516,684 2,805,753 2,933,217 3,145,658 3,348,275 3,579,727 3,827,179 annual VMT 879,625,366 919,218,798 1,024,801,283 1,071,357,646 1,148,951,585 1,222,957,444 1,307,495,381 1,397,877,073 % Change from 2019 11% 17% 25% 33% 42% 52%
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Water Activity Data
2019 2030
Total Demand 87,990.30 128,709.00
2010 2015 2019 2020 2025 2030
SCWA 37314
Surface Water 13060 44143 47846.2 48772 68700 69567
% of total 25% 57% 53% 52% 66% 62%
Ground Water 34125 28837 38143.4 40470 31324 39097
% of total 66% 37% 42% 43% 30% 35%
R
ecycled Water 4400 4400 4400 4400 4400 4400
% of total 9% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Total Supply 51585 77380 90389.6 93642 104424 113064
% change from 2030 50% 17% 4% 12% 8%
City Planning Area 13238 13238 26478 31830 33018 37314
Surface Water 3351 7552 14016 16578 21722 22958.88203
Ground Water 8757 4933 11174 13756 9904 12903
Recycled Water 1129 753 1289 1496 1391 1452
Total 13238 13238 26478 31830 33018 37314
GSWC
Surface Water 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000 15000
Ground Water 9,518 10,499 10751 10,814 10,829 10,829
Total Supply 24,518 25499 25751 25814 25829 25829
Cal-Am 14477
Ground Water 43600 33650 34074 34180 33550 33910
% of total 92% 67% 65% 65% 62% 60%
Wholesale Purchase 4020 16860 18028 18320 20830 22280
% of total 8% 33% 35% 35% 38% 40%
Total Supply 47620 50510 52102 52500 54380 56190
% change from 2030 6% 3% 1% 4% 3%
City Planning Area 12601 12601 13415 13852 13959 14477
Ground Water 11537 8395 8773 9018 8612 8737
Wholesale Purchase 1064 4206 4642 4834 5347 5740
Total 12601 12601 13415 13852 13959 14477
Source: City of Rancho Cordova Water Supply Evaluation
Microsoft Word - Rancho Water Supply Report 3.7.06.doc (cityofranchocordova.org) AF/year
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Summary of GHG Emissions (CO2e MT/yr) Associated with Process and Conveyance of Wastewater 2019 2030 (BAU NO LEG REDUCT) 2030 ( LEG REDUCT, RPS)
Community Process Emissions Conveyance Emissions TOTAL Community Community MT CO2e Process Emissions Conveyance Emissions Process Emissions Conveyance Emissions Indirect (electricity) 2,346 Indirect (electricity) 2,954 Indirect (electricity) 0 N20 effluent 3,203 N20 effluent 4,032 N20 effluent 4,032 N20 process 152 N20 process 152 N20 process 152
Biogas 173 Biogas 218 Biogas 218
Total 5,874 346 6,220 Total (MT CO2E) 7,356 4,359 11,715 Total (MT CO2E) 4,403 0 4,403 ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
WW Conveyance Emissions Summary 2030 (NO LEG REDUC) 2030 (W LEG REDUC) 2019 KWH MWh CO2e
Community 1,484,320 1484.32 346 MWH CO2e MWH CO2e
Community 18706.72 4358.94 18706.72085 0
Effluent/Person Served 0.030 MG/Person
Population Data
`
City 139,571 City's 2019 Service Population
County Employees Employee Data, Sac County. Todd Taylor SRCSD Service Population 1,400,000 Steve Nebozuk (SRCSD) phone conversation with Dimitri on 9/14/2016 Wastewater Conveyance Intensity Factor Calculation
Energy Data (pumping/conveyance)
Unit Data Year Source
SASD 3,388,861 KWH FY 2014/2015 Christoph Dobson and Wayne Zhuang, SASD on 9/14/2016 SRCSD 11,500,000 KWH 2013 Steve Nebozuk, SRCSD on 9/14/2016 TOTAL 14,888,861 KWH 2015 Used to represent 2015, best available data was used.
Effluent Data (represents all water treated within SRCSD service population) Unit Data Year Source
SRCSD 41,975 Million Gallons/Yr 2019 State of the District 2019 Report Adjusted 31,481 Million Gallons/Yr 2019
WW Conveyance Intensity Factor
354.71 Kwh/MGallon
Annual Growth Rates
Population
Employment
Salam Khan, SASD on 9/16/2016 indicated that City of Folsom, Sacramento, and W. Sac use energ to pump their WW to SRCSD. As such the KWH obtained from SRCSD service population was being underestimated when used in conjunction with the total effluent from the entire serice population. To adjust for this, the total effluent associated with Sacramento, W. Sac, and Folsom, was adjusted by 25% ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
SRWTP Existing Electricity Consumption
2019
Total 10,067,581 kwh/yr
Emissions Calculations
Annual electricity consumption 10,067,581 kW-hr/year
electricity conversion rate 1,000 KW-hr/MW-hr 2030
Annual electricity consumption 10,068 MW-hr/year
Electricity provider SMUD unitless NO LEG RED
W LEG
RED (RPS)
Utility's CO2-e emission factor 0.233 MT/MW-hr
Total Annual Community Indirect CO2e (metric tons) 2,954 - 2019 -
Total Annual Community Indirect CO2e (metric tons) 2,346 2030
Emissions Calculations
Annual electricity consumption 12,675,581 kW-hr/year
electricity conversion rate 1,000 KW-hr/MW-hr
Annual electricity consumption 12,676 MW-hr/year
Electricity provider SMUD unitless
Utility's CO2-e emission factor 0.000 MT/MW-hr
2030
Total Annual Community Indirect CO2e (metric tons) -
Supplemental Calculations
Unincorporated Sac County Per Capita Energy Use Calculation Source 100,985,526 Kwh/yr Steve Nebozuk (SRCSD) email to Dimitri Antoniou (Ascent) 8/10/2016 1,400,000 Service Population Steve Nebozuk (SRCSD) phone discussion with Dimitri Antoniou (Ascent) 8/10/2016 72 kwh/person 139,571 2019 City Service Population 10,067,581 2019 RC kWh 175,726 2030 City Service Population 12,675,581 2019 RC kWh ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Equation 10.3.2.2
2019 Inputs
Value Unit Description
139,571 people 2019 City Service Population
1.25 constant co-discharge waste into sewer
3.2 g N2O/person/year emission factor for nitrification/denitrification 273 GWP N2O
Annual N2O emissions (metric tons CO2e) 152
Annual N2O Municipal emissions (MT CO2e) 0.00
Conversion Factor
1g 0.000001 mt/g
2030
Inputs
Value Unit Description
139,571 people Population Annual N2O emissions (metric tons CO2e) 152
Process N2O Emissions from WWTP Without Nitrification/Denitrification ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
SRWTP Biogas (methane) Combustion
2019
DIRECT EMISSIONS-WWTP Process Emissions
Equation 10.2
Inputs
Term Value Unit Description
population 139,571 people 2019 City Service Population Digester Gas 1.00 ft^3/person/day cubic feet of digester gas produced per person per day Fraction Methane 0.650 constant fraction of methane in biogas Density Methane 662.000 g/m^3 density of methane Destruction Efficiency 0.99 constant methane destruction efficiency Conversion Factor 0.0283 constant conversion from ft^3 to m^3 Conversion Factor 365.25 constant conversion from days to year Conversion Factor 0.000001 constant conversion from g to metric tons GWP 27.9 constant global warming potential of methane for CO2e 2030 Community pop 175,726
2019 2030
Annual CO2e emissions (MT) 173 218 Source
California Air Resource Board, California Climate Action Registry, Local Governments for Sustainability, The Climate Registry (2010). Local Government Operations Protocol-For the quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions inventories. Version 1.1.
Stationary CH4 from Incomplete Combustion of Digester Gas ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
SRWTP N20 Effluent Emissions
2019
DIRECT EMISSIONS-WWTP Process Emissions
Equation 10.10
Inputs
Term Value Unit Description
City 139,571 people 2019 City Service Population constant 1.25 Constant co-discharge waste into sewer N load 0.026 kg N/person/day N per person served N uptake 0.050 kg N/kg BOD nitrogen uptake for cell growth in aerobic system N2O effluent Emission Factor 0.005 kg N2O N/kg sewage-N BOD Load 0.09 kg BOD/person/day
constant 1.57 Constant molecular weight ratio N2O to N2 constant 0 Constant fraction of nitrogen removed from nitrification/denitrification Conversion Factor 365 days/year
Coversion Factor 0.001 metric ton/kg
N20 Global Warming Potential 298 GWP
2030 Community pop 175,726
2019 2030
Annual Community CO2e emissions (MT) 3,203 4,032 Source
California Air Resource Board, California Climate Action Registry, Local Governments for Sustainability, The Climate Registry (2010). Local Government Operations Protocol-For the quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions inventories. Version 1.1.
Process N2O Emissions from Effluent Discharge1c
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Appendix C
Greenhouse Gas Forecast and
Reduction Target (Technical Memorandum)
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Memo
455 Capitol Mall, Unit 300
Sacramento, CA 95814
916.444.7301
Date: March 29, 2022 (original)
February 23, 2023 (revised)
To: Stefan Heisler and Darcy Goulart (City of Rancho Cordova) From: Alyssa Way, Andrew Martin, and Honey Walters (Ascent Environmental) Subject: City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets – Technical Memorandum
INTRODUCTION
In 2009, the County of Sacramento prepared a baseline inventory for the unincorporated county and the incorporated cities, including specifically a 2005 baseline year inventory for the City of Rancho Cordova (City). The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) 2020 Metropolitan Transportation Plan / Sustainable Communities Strategy (MTP/SCS) Draft Environmental Impact Report included a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory and forecast for 2016, 2030, 2040, and 2050 that included the City. Though the City was considered in both efforts, an updated communitywide GHG emissions inventory using the latest methodologies with a more recent 2019 baseline year has been prepared for the City’s Climate Action Plan (CAP). The next step in this update process is to forecast these GHG emissions for the 2030 target year and 2045 goal. This technical memorandum provides the results of these forecasts as well as associated methods, assumptions, emissions factors, and data sources.
The GHG emissions forecasts will provide a foundation for the forthcoming steps of the CAP development process, including the development of GHG emissions reduction targets and identification of measures the City can take to reduce GHG emissions from activities and sources located in Rancho Cordova.
ORGANIZATION OF THIS MEMORANDUM
This memorandum consists of two main parts:
Section 1: Summary of Inventory Results presents an overview of the updated GHG emissions inventory (baseline 2019).
Section 2: Emissions Forecasts summarizes the forecasted GHG emissions under “business-as-usual” (BAU) and legislative-adjusted BAU scenarios for years 2030 and 2045. A BAU scenario is one in which no GHG reductions from actions taken by local, regional, State, or federal agencies are included. A legislative-adjusted BAU scenario reflects GHG reductions from legislative or regulatory actions enacted by regional, State, and federal agencies, without considering any local (City) actions to reduce GHG emissions.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
1 SUMMARY OF INVENTORY RESULTS
1.1 2019 COMMUNITY INVENTORY RESULTS
Based on the modeling conducted, community activities in 2019 generated approximately 679,706 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e). Major emissions sectors included on-road transportation, residential and nonresidential building energy use, solid waste, water use, and wastewater generation. Table 1 and Figure 1 present the city’s 2019 GHG emissions inventory by sector. A description of each emissions sector, including key sources of emissions, is provided in the Inventory Technical Memorandum, dated March 29, 2022.
Table 1 2019 City of Rancho Cordova Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Sectors MTCO2e/year Percent of Total
On-Road Transportation 417,145 61%
Nonresidential Building Energy 118,801 17%
Residential Building Energy 95,575 14%
Solid Waste 22,397 3%
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 11,027 2%
Water Supply 9,071 1%
Wastewater Treatment 5,690 1%
Total 679,706 100%
Notes: MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year Source: Ascent Environmental 2022
Source: Ascent Environmental 2022
Figure 1 2019 City of Rancho Cordova Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory On-Road
Transportation, 61%
Nonresidential
Building Energy, 17%
Residential
Building Energy,
14%
Solid Waste, 3%
Off-Road Vehicles
and Equipment, 2%
Wastewater
Treatment, 1%
Water Supply, 1%
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FORECASTS TO 2030
2.1 COMMUNITY FORECAST RESULTS
The BAU GHG emissions forecasts provide an assessment of how emissions generated by community activities will change over time without further local, State, or federal action. In addition to accounting for the city’s growth under a BAU scenario, an adjusted BAU forecast was prepared, which includes adopted legislative and regulatory actions at the State and federal levels that would affect emissions without any local action, such as regulatory requirements to increase vehicle fuel efficiency and increase renewable energy sources in grid electricity portfolios. It is important to note that the legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecasts only include emissions reductions associated with implementation of adopted federal and State legislation and regulations and do not include goals established by executive orders or targets established by federal or State agencies outside of adopted legislation and regulations.
These forecasts provide the City with the information needed to focus efforts on emissions sectors and sources that have the greatest opportunities for GHG emissions reductions.
The BAU forecasts described in this section for 2030 and 2045 are aligned with statewide GHG reduction targets established in State law Senate Bill (SB) 32 and Assembly Bill (AB) 1279. The State GHG reduction targets are to reduce statewide emissions levels to:
40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (SB 32); and
net zero with at least an 85 percent reduction from 1990 levels for anthropogenic sources (AB 1279).
Estimated BAU emissions forecasts were based on population and employment from the SACOG Growth Forecast for the 2020 Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (MTP/SCS). The SACOG Growth Forecast provides population and employment for 2016 and 2040. These values were interpolated and extrapolated to identify values for 2019, 2030, and 2045. Population and employment are expected to increase by 62 and 36 percent from 2019 to 2045, respectively. These growth factors were used to forecast BAU emissions for most sectors.
Additional information regarding the growth factors used for each sector is included in the following sections. Fehr & Peers provided annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) projections for the years 2027, 2035, and 2040 based on origin- destination data provided by SACOG. Based on these data, annual VMT was interpolated for year 2030 and projected out for 2045. Annual VMT by 2045 is projected to increase by 42 percent from 2019. VMT projections were used to scale emissions from the on-road transportation sector. Table 2 shows projections growth in the city from 2019 to 2045.
Table 2 Rancho Cordova Demographic and Vehicle Miles Traveled Projections Forecast Factor 2019 2030 2045
Population 77,579 102,122 125,427
Employment 61,991 73,604 84,213
Annual VMT 919,218,798 1,071,357,646 1,307,495,381
Notes: VMT = vehicle miles traveled.
Source: SACOG Growth Forecast for the 2020 MTP/SCS; Fehr & Peers; adapted by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Table 3 shows baseline emissions in 2019 and a BAU emissions forecast for 2030, and 2045.
Table 3 2019 Rancho Cordova Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and BAU Forecast (MTCO2e/year) Sector 2019 2030 2045
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
On-Road Transportation 417,145 486,187 593,347
Nonresidential Building Energy 118,801 141,055 161,388 Residential Building Energy 95,575 125,811 154,521
Solid Waste 22,397 29,483 36,211
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 11,027 14,772 18,488
Water Supply 9,071 11,940 14,665
Wastewater Treatment 5,690 7,490 9,200
Total 679,706 816,738 987,820
Notes: Total may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecast prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Legislative-adjusted BAU emissions forecasts were prepared using the same demographic and VMT data that were used for the BAU forecasts, while accounting for regional, State, and federal legislative actions that would affect local emissions. These forecasts provide the City with a more robust understanding to assist with the prioritization of emissions reduction measures developed to meet the GHG targets. A summary of the legislative reductions applied is provided in Table 4.
Table 4 Legislative Reductions Summary
Source Legislative Reduction Description Sectors Applied Regional 2030 Zero Carbon Plan Establishes a target for SMUD to supply 100 percent renewable electricity by 2030.
Residential and
Nonresidential
Building Energy,
Water Supply
State
California’s Building Energy
Efficiency Standards (2019 Title
24, Part 6)
Requires all new buildings in California to comply with energy efficiency standards established by CEC. Accounts for the energy efficiency gains associated with lighting, heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating improvements, as well as onsite solar photovoltaic requirements for low-rise residential.
Residential and
Nonresidential
Building Energy
State Advanced Clean Car I Standards Establishes GHG emission reduction standards for model years 2017 through 2025 that are more stringent than federal CAFE standards.
On-Road
Transportation
State Truck and Bus Regulation Requires diesel trucks and buses that operate in California to be upgraded to reduce GHG emissions.
On-Road
Transportation
Federal
Fuel Efficiency Standards for
Medium- and Heavy-Duty
Vehicles
Establishes fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty engines and vehicles.
On-Road
Transportation
Federal EPA Off-Road Compression-
Ignition Engine Standards
Establishes standards for phasing of EPA diesel engine tiers for off - road compression-ignition equipment.
Off-Road Vehicles
and Equipment
Notes: CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy; CEC = California Energy Commission; EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; GHG = greenhouse gas; SMUD = Sacramento Municipal Utility District Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
The city’s legislative-adjusted BAU emissions would decrease by approximately 22 percent between 2019 and 2045, as shown below in Table 5 and Figure 2. Figure 2 also shows the emissions trend that would occur without ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
anticipated legislative reductions, accounting only for population, employment, and annual VMT increases. Without the legislative reductions (the BAU forecast), emissions would be 86 percent higher in 2045 compared to the legislative-adjusted BAU forecast. Emissions forecasts are detailed for each sector and discussed below beginning with Section 2.1.1.
Table 5 2019 Rancho Cordova Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Sector 2019 2030 2045
On-Road Transportation 417,145 387,784 384,651
Nonresidential Building Energy 118,801 23,605 25,335
Residential Building Energy 95,575 52,217 55,903
Solid Waste 22,397 29,483 36,211
Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment 11,027 14,772 18,488
Water Supply 9,071 0 0
Wastewater Treatment 5,690 7,490 9,200
Total 679,706 515,352 529,788
Notes: Total may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
Source: Ascent Environmental 2022
Figure 2 2019 Rancho Cordova Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory with BAU and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts
2.1.1 Building Energy
Emissions from future electricity, natural gas, and backup generator use for buildings were estimated by multiplying anticipated energy use with forecasted emissions factors. Future energy use was forecasted in three parts. First, energy use was scaled by population and employment growth factors detailed in Table 2. Second, electricity emissions factors were adjusted to reflect the Sacramento Metropolitan Utility District’s (SMUD) 2030 Zero Carbon Plan of 100 percent of electricity from zero carbon sources by 2030. Electricity emissions factors are anticipated to decline based on current regulations, while natural gas and diesel emissions factors are anticipated to be constant.
Third, energy intensity factors were adjusted to reflect increased stringency under California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards (California Code of Regulations Title 24 Part 6, hereafter referred to as “Title 24”). The 2019 Title 24 standards, which became effective in 2020, are expected to achieve decreases in electricity consumption in new construction. The assumptions for energy efficiency and future electricity emissions factors are described below. Table 6 summarizes the scaling factors and legislative reductions used to forecast building use by energy type. 0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
2019 2030 2045
GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
On-Road Transportation Nonresidential Building Energy Residential Building Energy Solid Waste Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Water Supply Wastewater Treatment BAU Emissions Leg-Adjusted BAU Emissions ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
Table 6 Building Energy Emissions Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Energy Type
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Electricity Scaled by population growth for residential building energy; scaled by employment
growth for nonresidential building energy.
Scheduled targets (i.e., 100 percent renewable by 2030) applied to SMUD’s emissions factors. Accounts for Title 24 energy efficiency gains in new construction based on the best available data for average building energy efficiency. Natural Gas Backup Generators Scaled by employment growth for
nonresidential building energy.
Accounts for Title 24 energy efficiency gains in new
nonresidential construction.
Notes: SMUD = Sacramento Metropolitan Utility District.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING ENERGY
Between 2019 and 2045, electricity and natural gas emissions from residential buildings would decrease by approximately 42 percent from 95,575 to 55,903 MTCO2e per year with legislative adjustments and overall population growth of 62 percent over the same time. While GHG emissions associated with residential electricity usage are anticipated to decline through 2045 and reflect SMUD’s goal for zero carbon electricity by 2030, emissions from residential natural gas consumption are expected to rise gradually. This increase is due to population growth in the city and reflects adopted legislation. Table 7 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the residential building energy sector by energy type for 2030 and 2045.
Table 7 2019 Residential Building Energy Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Emissions Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Energy Type 2019 2030 2045
Electricity 47,238 0 0
Natural Gas 48,336 52,217 55,903
Total 95,575 52,217 55,903
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING ENERGY
Between 2019 and 2045, electricity, natural gas, and back-up generator emissions from nonresidential buildings would decrease by 79 percent from 118,801 to 25,335 MTCO2e per year with legislative adjustments and overall employment growth of 36 percent over the same time. GHG emissions associated with nonresidential electricity usage are anticipated to decline through 2045 and reflect SMUD’s carbon neutrality goals and emissions from nonresidential natural gas consumption and backup generators are expected to rise gradually. Table 8 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions for the nonresidential building energy sector by energy type for 2030 and 2045.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
Table 8 2019 Nonresidential Building Energy Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Energy Type 2019 2030 2045
Electricity 97,089 0 0
Natural Gas 20,769 22,580 24,235
Backup Generators 943 1,025 1,101
Total 118,801 23,605 25,335
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Electricity Emissions Factors
Electricity emissions from the building sector are anticipated to decrease to zero by 2030 and beyond without additional City action, despite growth, due to State and regional measures already in place that affect the carbon intensity of grid electricity. SMUD’s emissions factor for CO2 in 2019 was provided by SMUD. Electricity emissions factors for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) 2018 Annual Output Emissions Rates (EPA 2020).
California utility providers, including SMUD, were scheduled to reach a 33 percent renewable electricity generation mix in 2020 and, pursuant to SB 100, are scheduled to achieve 60 percent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045. However, SMUD’s is scheduled to achieve 100 percent renewable by 2030 under the utility’s carbon neutrality goal. SMUD’s 2019 emissions factors is 232.1 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour (g CO2/kWh). The carbon-free electricity requirement results in a 2030 and 2045 emissions factor of zero g CO2/kWh.
CH4 and N2O electricity emissions factors in future years are assumed to follow the same trends as the CO2 emissions factors.
Natural Gas Emissions Factors
Natural gas emissions are based on emissions factors obtained from The Climate Registry’s (TCR’s) 2020 Default Emission Factors, which are estimated to be 5,306 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per therm (g CO2e/therm) for stationary combustion in buildings. Emissions factors associated with natural gas combustion are not anticipated to change over time, as there are no legislative actions that would reduce the energy intensity of natural gas.
Diesel Emissions Factors
Emissions from diesel fuel used to power backup generators are based on emissions factors from TCR, which are estimated to be 10,210 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per gallon (g CO2e/gal). Emissions factors associated with diesel combustion are not anticipated to change over time, as there are no legislative actions that would reduce the energy intensity of diesel.
Energy Efficiency
Title 24 standards apply to both new construction and existing buildings. The 2019 Title 24 standards went into effect January 2020. The California Energy Commission (CEC) estimates that new residential buildings built to the 2019 standards are 53 percent more efficient than residential buildings built to the previous standards (CEC 2018). CEC estimates that new nonresidential buildings built to the 2019 standards are 30 percent more efficient than nonresidential buildings built to the previous standards (CEC 2018).
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
In addition to the current iteration of Title 24, previous versions of the standards have also achieved energy efficiencies for residential and nonresidential buildings. Energy efficiency savings have been quantified by CEC and the collective effect of Title 24 was accounted for in the forecasted emissions. Based on these data, the analysis assumes that all new residential construction occurring between 2020 and 2045 would be 75 percent more energy efficient than buildings constructed under previous Title 24 standards, and nonresidential construction would be 53 percent more energy efficient compared to buildings constructed under previous Title 24 standards. This includes the energy efficiencies gained through the 2008, 2013, 2016, and 2019 versions of Title 24. Additional efficiencies to be achieved in future code cycles are yet unknown and therefore not factored into the forecast.
2.1.2 Transportation
ON-ROAD TRANSPORTATION
Between 2019 and 2045, annual legislative-adjusted BAU GHG emissions from on-road vehicles would decrease by approximately 8 percent from 417,147 to 384,651 MTCO2e per year based on future vehicle emission factors modeled in the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB’s) Emission Factor (EMFAC) 2017 model, despite an increase in VMT of 42 percent. VMT projections were provided by Fehr & Peers based on origin-destination data from SACOG. With respect to the legislative adjustments included in this forecast, State and federal regulations incorporated in the on- road vehicle sector include the Advanced Clean Car I (ACC) Standards, and fuel efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. These standards are included in EMFAC2021’s emissions factor estimates and forecasts. It should be noted that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard was excluded in EMFAC2021 forecasts because the emissions benefits originate from upstream fuel production and do not directly reduce vehicle tailpipe emissions that affect the city’s GHG emissions forecasts. Table 9 summarizes the scaling factor and legislative reductions used to forecast on-road transportation emissions.
Table 9 On-Road Transportation Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
On-Road Vehicles
Scaled by VMT estimates
provided by Fehr &
Peers.
EMFAC2021 forecasts vehicle fleet distributions by vehicle type and the emissions factors anticipated for each vehicle category based on both vehicle emissions testing and approved legislative reductions. EMFAC2021’s forecasts incorporate the effects of the ACC I Standards, and fuel efficiency standards for medium - and heavy-duty vehicles, as well as truck and bus regulations.
Notes: ACC I = Advanced Clean Cars I; CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy; EMFAC2021 = California Air Resources Board’s EMisson FACtor 2021 model.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Table 10 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from on-road transportation for 2030 and 2045.
Table 10 2019 On-Road Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
EMFAC Vehicle
Category EMFAC Vehicle Category Description 2019 2030 2045 LDA Passenger Cars 148,453 132,269 142,439
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
LDT2 Light-Duty Trucks (GVWR <6000 lb) 78,535 73,483 80,220 MDV Medium-Duty Trucks (GVWR 5751-8500 lb) 65,206 60,725 65,244 LDT1 Light-Duty Trucks (GVWR <6000 lb) 17,554 17,356 18,083 LHD1 Light-Heavy-Duty Trucks (GVWR 8501- 10000 lbs) 29,056 28,522 19,887 T7 Trucks Heavy-Heavy Duty Trucks 38,318 36,057 31,532 T6 Trucks Medium-Heavy Duty Trucks 23,818 23,123 14,868 LHD2 Light-Heavy-Duty Trucks (GVWR 10001- 14000 lb) 7,083 7,041 5,053 MCY Motorcycles 891 987 1,161
MH Motor Homes 1,826 2,033 2,440
UBUS Urban Buses 1,597 1,384 7
OBUS Other Buses 1,515 1,516 915
SBUS School Buses 897 935 667
All Other Buses All Other Buses 749 743 849
PTO Power Take Off 1,138 1,051 658
Motor Coach Motor Coach 511 561 630
Total - 417,145 387,784 384,651
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
OFF-ROAD VEHICLES AND EQUIPMENT
Between 2019 and 2045, emissions associated with off-road vehicles and equipment used in the city would increase by 69 percent from 12,470 to 21,074 MTCO2e per year, with legislative adjustments applied and overall growth in various demographics. Emissions were obtained from CARB’s OFFROAD2007 and OFFROAD2021 models. With respect to the legislative adjustments in the off-road vehicle sector, CARB’s latest off-road emissions model, OFFROAD2021, was used, which incorporates regulatory actions such as reformulated fuels and more stringent emission standards. However, some off-road vehicle and equipment sources that are included in the OFFROAD2007 model are excluded from OFFROAD2021. For these sectors, emissions were obtained from OFFROAD2007. In addition, OFFROAD2021 provides CO2 emissions but does not provide emissions from CH4 and N2O. Ratios of CH4 and N2O to CO2 reported in OFFROAD2007 were calculated and applied to CO2 data from OFFROAD2021 to calculate CH4 and N2O emissions, as recommended by CARB.
Sacramento County-level emissions from off-road vehicles and equipment were scaled using changes in city-specific demographic factors. Table 11 summarizes the scaling factors and legislative reductions used to forecast off-road vehicle and equipment emissions.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
Table 11 Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Construction and Mining Equipment Service Population
OFFROAD2007 and OFFROAD2021 emission
factor considerations include EPA off-road
compression-ignition engine standards
implementation schedule.
Entertainment Equipment Employment
Industrial Equipment Employment
Lawn and Garden Equipment Population
Light Commercial Equipment Employment
Portable Equipment Employment
Recreational Equipment Population
Transportation Refrigeration Units Service Population
Notes: EPA = U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; OFFROAD2007 = California Air Resources Board’s OFFROAD2007 model; OFFROAD2021 = California Air Resources Board’s OFFROAD2021 model.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Table 12 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the off-road vehicles and equipment sector for 2030 and 2045.
Table 12 2019 Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative- Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Source 2019 2030 2045
Construction and Mining Equipment 5,350 7,500 9,675
Entertainment Equipment 54 67 80
Industrial Equipment 1,426 1,787 2,129
Lawn and Garden Equipment 138 211 287
Light Commercial Equipment 839 1,052 1,253
Portable Equipment 2,478 3,105 3,699
Recreational Equipment 81 123 168
Transportation Refrigeration Units 661 927 1,196
Total 11,027 14,772 18,488
Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
2.1.3 Solid Waste
Between 2019 and 2045, solid waste emissions generated from community activities in the city would increase by approximately 62 percent from 22,397 to 36,211 MTCO2e, due to overall population growth of approximately 62 percent over the same period. Solid waste sector emissions include CH4 emissions from the decay of waste generated annually, which were scaled by population growth within the city between 2019 and 2045. There are no applicable legislative reductions to apply to this sector and future disposal rates, so legislative-adjusted BAU emissions are equivalent to BAU emissions. Table 13 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the solid waste sector for 2030 and 2045.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
Table 13 2019 Solid Waste Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Source 2019 2030 2045
Community-Generated Solid Waste 22,397 29,483 36,211 Notes: Totals may not sum exactly due to independent rounding. BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
2.1.4 Water Supply
Between 2019 and 2045, water supply emissions from community activities in the city would be reduced to zero by 2030 onward due to SMUD’s 2030 Zero Carbon Plan. Table 14 summarizes the scaling factor and legislative reduction used to forecast water supply emissions.
Table 14 Water Supply Forecast Methods and Legislative Reductions by Source Source
Forecast Methods
Scale Factor Applied Legislative Reductions
Water Consumption Population growth. Assumes electricity use for extraction, conveyance, distribution, and treatment follow the 2030 goal of carbon-free electricity.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
Table 15 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from the water supply sector for 2030 and 2045.
Table 15 2019 Water Supply Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Source 2019 2030 2045
Water Supply 9,070 0 0
Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
2.1.5 Wastewater Treatment
Between 2019 and 2045, wastewater treatment emissions from the community would increase by 62 percent from 5,690 to 9,200 MTCO2e per year, accounting for overall population growth of 62 percent over the same time.
Wastewater treatment-related emissions are generated from centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Table 16 shows the 2019 inventory and legislative-adjusted BAU forecasted emissions from wastewater treatment sources for 2030 and 2045.
Table 16 2019 Wastewater Treatment Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecasts (MTCO2e/year)
Source 2019 2030 2045
Centralized WWTPs 5,690 7,490 9,200
Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; MTCO2e/year = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.
Source: Forecasts prepared by Ascent Environmental in 2022.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
2.1.6 Discussion
As discussed above, the community legislative-adjusted BAU emissions would decrease by 22 percent between 2019 and 2045. This is a result of reductions that would be achieved from several regional, State, and federal legislative actions including:
100 percent of electricity from zero carbon sources by 2030; improved building energy efficiency through compliance with Title 24 standards (75 percent energy reduction for residential, 53 percent for nonresidential); and
reductions in on-road vehicle emissions factors forecasted in EMFAC2021 and off-road vehicle and equipment emissions factors forecasted in OFFROAD2021.
From 2030 to 2045, new legislative actions that would affect emissions are anticipated to be adopted by the State and federal government; however, because information regarding these regulatory changes is currently unavailable or not final, emissions reductions from future potential legislative actions are not quantified in this memorandum.
Without future legislative actions and despite growth in the city, emissions would decline from 2019 through 2045.
Additional reductions could occur in the future due to State and/or federal actions requiring improvements in vehicle and equipment fuel economy and increased share of electric vehicle and equipment options, which would be reflected in future updates to the EMFAC2021 and OFFROAD2021 models. Other previous legislative actions would also continue to apply in the future and ultimately outpace growth in population and employment. Where new State regulations or programs are imminent and reasonably foreseeable, they can be incorporated as complementary actions to locally based GHG reduction measures.
3 REDUCTION TARGETS
3.1 STATEWIDE GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION TARGETS AND
GOALS
As directed in AB 32, SB 32, and AB 1279, the State aims to reduce annual GHG emissions to:
1990 levels by 2020;
40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030; and
Net zero emissions with at least an 85 percent reduction from 1990 levels for anthropogenic sources Signed on September 16, 2022, AB 1279, the California Climate Crisis Act, established a statewide goal to achieve net zero emissions as soon as possible, and no later than 2045, and achieve net negative emissions thereafter, and to ensure that by 2045, statewide anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to at least 85 percent below 1990 levels..
The City aims to reduce its fair-share of communitywide emissions in proportion to the State’s targets and goals.
Community emissions levels from 1990 are not available, which is the case for most local jurisdictions in California.
Thus, community GHG reduction targets for the City’s CAP were developed relative to the 2019 community emissions inventory, consistent with guidance provided by CARB. The methodology used to calculate the City’s emissions reduction targets is described below.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
3.2 COMMUNITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS REDUCTION
TARGETS
Based on a review of the 2017 Scoping Plan and the 2022 Scoping Plan and an understanding of activities occurring within the city, the City has direct or indirect jurisdiction over activities that generate emissions and contribute to reductions in four of the eight emissions sectors included in the 2017 Scoping Plan and the 2022 Scoping Plan:
residential and commercial, electric power, recycling and waste, and transportation. The City has limited influence over high GWP gases, and industrial activities in the city are limited. Lastly, while facilities regulated under Cap-and- Trade do exist within city boundaries, the State is responsible for achieving emissions reductions from these sources, and the City has limited ability to influence Cap-and-Trade facilities’ GHG emissions. Therefore, by excluding these sectors under this approach, community GHG reduction targets have been established in proportion with statewide reductions for all sectors relevant to City jurisdiction to the extent feasible using available data. This target setting approach is consistent with the California Supreme Court decision in Center for Biological Diversity v. California Department of Fish and Wildlife and Newhall Land and Farming (2015) 62 Cal.4th 204, which determined that the approach of assessing a project’s consistency with statewide emissions reduction goals must include a “reasoned explanation based on substantial evidence” that links the project’s emission to the statewide GHG reduction goals.
The City kicked off the project in 2021 after which the City prepared GHG emissions inventories and forecasts and set GHG reduction targets. CARB’s 2017 Scoping Plan was the adopted statewide Plan at the time the targets were developed and hence was used for setting the City’s 2030 target and developing emissions reduction strategies and measures that meet the 2030 target. The City’s 2045 goal has been developed using the 2022 Scoping Plan (adopted in December 2022) in response to the statewide 2045 GHG reduction goal established in AB 1279. The following sections detail the methodology for setting the City’s 2030 target and 2045 goal:
2030 Emissions Reduction Target
The first step in determining community targets is to compare the State’s GHG inventories for 1990 and 2019 (i.e., the City’s baseline inventory year) for the four relevant sectors. According to the inventories available from CARB using the 2017 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from the relevant sectors were approximately 431 million MTCO2e (MMTCO2e) in 1990 and 418 MMTCO2e in 2019 (CARB 2021) (note: sector-specific emissions totals and reductions reflect rounding). Thus, 2019 statewide emissions were approximately 13 MMTCO2e (3 percent) lower than the 1990 level and the State’s 2020 GHG target (i.e., reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020).
According to the 2017 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from sectors relevant to the City’s inventory must be reduced to 311 MMTCO2e by 2020 for the State to achieve its 2020 target. CARB’s statewide inventory reports 2019 emissions levels of 278 MMTCO2e for these sectors, which demonstrates the achievement of the 2020 target.
According to the 2017 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from the sectors relevant to the City’s inventory must be reduced to 179 MMTCO2e by 2030 for the State to achieve its 2030 target. This represents an emissions reduction of approximately 99 MMTCO2e, or 36 percent, by 2030, relative to 2019 levels of 278 MMTCO2e. 2045 Emissions Reduction Goal
The first step in determining community targets is to compare the State’s GHG inventories for 1990 and 2019 (i.e., the City’s baseline inventory year) for the four relevant sectors. According to the inventories available from CARB using the 2022 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from the relevant sectors were approximately 438 million MTCO2e (MMTCO2e) in 1990 and 418 MMTCO2e in 2019 (CARB 2021) (note: sector-specific emissions totals and reductions reflect rounding). Thus, 2019 statewide emissions were approximately 20 MMTCO2e (5 percent) lower than the 1990 level and the State’s 2020 GHG target (i.e., reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020).
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
According to the 2022 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from sectors relevant to the City’s inventory must be reduced to 311 MMTCO2e by 2020 for the State to achieve its 2020 target. CARB’s statewide inventory reports 2019 emissions levels of 278 MMTCO2e for these sectors, which demonstrates the achievement of the 2020 target.
According to the 2022 Scoping Plan, statewide emissions from the sectors relevant to the City’s inventory must be reduced to 53 MMTCO2e by 2045 for the State to achieve its 2045 goal. This represents an emissions reduction of approximately 330 MMTCO2e, or 81 percent, by 2030, relative to 2019 levels of 278 MMTCO2e.
Consistent with State targets and goals and considering relevant emissions sectors, the City’s community GHG reduction targets are as follows:
2030 target: 36 percent below 2019 levels (438,283 MTCO2e); and 2045 target: 81 percent below 2019 levels (129,252 MTCO2e) Table 17 shows how the City’s targets were derived based on adjusted statewide GHG emissions data and projections and summarizes the City’s legislative-adjusted BAU forecasts and targets for 2030 and 2045.
Table 17 Rancho Cordova GHG Emissions Reduction Targets and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Summary Source 2019 2030 2045
2017 Scoping Plan Emissions Limit (MMTCO 2e) NA 259 NA
Adjusted 2017 Scoping Plan Emissions Limit 1 (MMTCO2e) NA 179 NA 2022 Scoping Plan Emissions Limit (MMTCO2e) NA NA 66
Adjusted 2022 Scoping Plan Emissions Limit 1 (MMTCO2e) NA NA 53 Statewide Target Percent Reduction from 2019 Levels NA 36% 85% Baseline Emissions and Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecast (MTCO2e) 679,706 515,352 529,788
Target Percent Reduction Below Baseline (%) NA 36% 81% Target Annual Emissions (MTCO2e) NA 438,283 129,252
Reduction Needed to Meet Target (MTCO 2e) NA 77,070 400,536 Notes: BAU = business-as-usual; GHG = greenhouse gases; MTCO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; MMTCO2e = million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; NA = not available; 2017 Scoping Plan = California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. 1 Excludes agriculture, high GWP, industrial, and cap-and-trade sectors because they are not relevant to the City’s inventory.
Source: CARB 2017; Ascent Environmental 2022.
Figure 3 below depicts the 2019 baseline and legislative-adjusted BAU GHG emissions forecasts by sector, as distinguished by the colored wedges. The sum of the wedges represents the anticipated annual GHG emissions each year. Each wedge shows how an emissions sector is expected to contribute to the community-wide GHG inventory over time. The black line indicates the City’s GHG reduction target for 2030 and 2045 relative to the City’s 2019 GHG inventory, consistent with guidance provided by CARB.
The City’s 2030 GHG reduction target would be 36 percent below 2019 levels (438,283 MTCO2e), and 81 percent below 2019 levels (129,252 MTCO2e) by 2045. The space between the trajectory of the black line and the top of the colored wedges represents the “gap” in emissions that will need to be addressed through local actions for the City to meet its future GHG reduction targets. These emissions reductions are in addition to anticipated reductions provided ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
by legislative actions at the State and federal levels. Supporting information and detailed calculation results are included in Attachment A.
Source: Ascent Environmental 2022
Figure 3 Rancho Cordova Legislative-Adjusted Business-as-Usual Forecast Emissions by Sector and 2030 Emission Reduction Target and 2045 Emission Reduction Goal
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2019 2030 2045
GHG Emissions (MTCO2e)
On-Road Transportation Nonresidential Building Energy Residential Building Energy Solid Waste Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Wastewater Treatment Water Supply Reduction Target and Goal
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan
GHG Emissions Forecasts and Reduction Targets
February 22, 2023
REFERENCES
California Air Resources Board. 2017. California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. Available:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf. Accessed March 2, 2022.
California Air Resources Board. 2022. California’s 2022 Climate Change Scoping Plan. Available:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-sp_1.pdf. ———. 2021. California GHG Emissions for 2000 to 2019 (2021 Edition). Available:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm. Accessed March 2, 2022.
California Energy Commission. 2018 (March). 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards Frequently Asked Questions.
Available: https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020- 03/Title_24_2019_Building_Standards_FAQ_ada.pdf. Accessed February 7, 2022.
CARB. See California Air Resources Board.
CEC. See California Energy Commission.
EPA. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Fehr & Peers. 2021. Review of Rancho Cordova VMT Data. Technical Memorandum.
TCR. See The Climate Registry.
The Climate Registry. 2020. 2020 Default Emission Factor Document. Available:
https://www.theclimateregistry.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/The-Climate-Registry-2020-Default- Emission-Factor-Document.pdf. Accessed February 7, 2022.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2020. Emissions & Generation Integrated Database (eGRID), Annual Output Emissions Rates. Available: https://www.epa.gov/egrid/download-data. Accessed February 7, 2022.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Appendix D
Greenhouse Gas Reduction
Target Worksheet
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
2045 Goal
California GHG Emissions Inventory (by scoping plan sector) Included Emissio 2019
Agriculture 31.8
Commercial and 43.8
Electric Power 58.8
High GWP 20.6
Industrial 88.2
Recycling and 8.9
Transportation 166.1
CARB Scoping Plan Emissions Targets by Sector
CARB GHG Inventory 2045 Target Ranges
Sectors 1990 2019 2022 Scoping Plan Scenario
Agriculture 26 32 14
Residential and Com 44 44 4
Electric Power 108 59 31
High GWP 3 21 9
Industrial 98 88 18
Recycling and Wast 7 9 8
Transportation 152 166 10
Cap-and-Trade Program 0
CDR -80
Natural and Workin -7 26 -30
Total 431 444 -15
Source: California PATHWAYS Model Outputs, Energy & Environmental Economics, May 02, 2022 Natural and Working Lands data for the California Air Resources Board's 2022 Scoping Plan Update, CARB, May 10th, 2022 Applicable Emission Sectors
Emission Sectors
Applicable to Rancho
Cordova?
Agriculture No
Residential and Com Yes
Electric Power Yes
High GWP No
Industrial No
Recycling and Wast Yes
Transportation Yes
Cap and Trade No
GHG Reduction Targets
Milestone Year
Statewide Existing and
Target Emissions
(MMTCO2e)
Target Percent
Reduction from 2019
Statewide Existing and Target
Emissions (MMTCO2e)
Target Percent Reduction
from 2019
1990 438 NA
2019 418 NA 278
2020 438 -5% 311 -12%
2045 66 85% 53 81%
Target Emissions Target Percent
Reduction from 2019
2019 679,706 --
2045 129,252 81%
Source: CARB 2021. California GHG Emissions for 2000 to 2019 (2021 Edition). https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm Rancho Cordova Target Emissions and Target Percent Reduction from 2019 Emissions Levels
Notes: CARB statewide inventory current through 2019. 2040 target interpolated between 2030 target and 2045 goal under AB32, SB32, and EO B-55-18.
Source: CARB 2021. California GHG Emissions for 2000 to 2019 (2021 Edition). https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm All Sectors Selected Sectors
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
2030 Target
California GHG Emissions Inventory (by scoping plan sector) Included Emis2019
Agriculture 31.8
Commercial
43.8 Electric Power 58.8
High GWP 20.6
Industrial 88.2
Recycling and 8.9
Transportation 166.1
CARB Scoping Plan Emissions Targets by Sector
CARB GHG Inventory 2030 Scoping Plan
Range
Sectors 1990 2019
Agriculture 26 32 24
Residential and 44 44 38
Electric Power 108 59 30
High GWP 3 21 8
Industrial 98 88 83
Recycling and W 7 9 8
Transportation 152 166 103
Cap-and-Trade n/a n/a -34
Natural and Wo -7
Total 431 418 260 Note: the Scoping Plan-reported emissions by sector reflect rounding.
Applicable Emission Sectors
Emission Secto
Applicable to Rancho
Cordova?
Agriculture No
Residential and Yes
Electric Power Yes
High GWP No
Industrial No
Recycling and W Yes
Transportation Yes
Cap and Trade No
GHG Reduction Targets
Selected Sectors
Milestone Year
Statewide Existing and
Target Emissions
(MMTCO2e)
Target Percent Reduction
from 2019
Statewide Existing
and Target
Emissions
(MMTCO2e)
Target Percent
Reduction from 2019
1990 431 NA
2019 418 NA 278
2020 431 -3% 311 -12%
2030 259 38% 179 36%
Target Emissions Target Percent Reduction
from 2019
2019 679,706 --
2030 438,283 36%
Rancho Cordova Target Emissions and Target Percent Reduction from 2019 Emissions Levels
Source: CARB 2021. California GHG Emissions for 2000 to 2019 (2021 Edition). https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory All Sectors
Source: CARB 2021. California GHG Emissions for 2000 to 2019 (2021 Edition). https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory Notes: CARB statewide inventory current through 2019. 2040 target interpolated between 2030 target and 2045 goal under AB32, SB32, and EO B-55-18.
Source: 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. Table 3.
https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Appendix E
Greenhouse Gas Reduction
Strategies and Measures Worksheet
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Summary Sheet
Summary of Getting To, From, and Around the City (On-road Transportation Sector) measures C
alculations sheets: Getting To, From, and Around the City (On-road Transportation Sector) Summary of Using Energy in Homes and Businesses (Building Energy Sector) measures Calculations sheets: Using Energy in Homes and Businesses (Building Energy Sector) Summary of Using Equipment for Landscaping and Construction (Off-Road Vehicle and Equipment Sector) measures Calculations sheets: Using Equipment for Landscaping and Construction (Off-Road Vehicle and Equipment Sector) Summary of Using Water and Disposing of Waste at Homes and Businesses (Water and Solid Waste Sectors) measures Calculations sheets: Using Water and Disposing of Waste at Homes and Businesses (Water and Solid Waste Sectors) Summary of Planting and Managing Trees (Carbon Sequestration Sector) measures Calculations sheets: Planting and Managing Trees (Carbon Sequestration Sector) Table of Contents
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Summary Sheet
Strategy Code and Title Measure Code Measure Title
GHG Reduction
Potential in 2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Transportation-1.1
Enforce the City’s Transportation Impact Guidelines, which require developers to include features in their projects that decrease the amount of driving alone and encourage people to make trips by walking, biking, or using public transit
6,669 17,134 8% 6%
Transportation-1.2 Reduce or eliminate requirements to provide a minimum number of off-street parking spaces in new development projects NA NA NA NA
Transportation-1.3 Improve street connectivity, for example by providing walkways at the ends of existing cul-de-sacs, or requiring walkable street systems in new developments NA NA NA NA Transportation-1.4 Limit the number of drive-through businesses NA NA NA NA Transportation-2.1 Update Bike and Pedestrian Master Plans to increase the number of low-stress bikeways and walkways that connect homes to destinations 11,536 12,755 14% 4% Transportation-2.2 Install roundabouts to control traffic at intersections, instead of stop signs or traffic signals NA NA NA NA Transportation-2.3 Provide temporary or permanent car-free zones or “slow streets” in specified areas, for example, individual blocks or residential streets NA NA NA NA
Transportation-2.4 Install measures to reduce vehicle speeds and calm traffic on city streets NA NA NA NA Transportation-3.1 Increase the frequency of SacRT bus, CordoVan service, and/or light rail service, or extend service to cover new areas or times of day
Transportation-3.2 Implement Transit-Supportive Roadway Treatments (for example, transit signal priority, bus-only signal phases, queue jumps, curb extensions to speed passenger loading, and dedicated bus lanes) Transportation-3.3 Provide discounted or fare-free transit service (could be universal or targeted to specific areas and/or populations, for example, youth under 18)
Transportation-3.4 Expand the SmaRT Ride area and convert the shuttles to electric shuttles Transportation-4.1
Implement a Commuter Trip Reduction Program (CTR) in which companies provide employees with services, infrastructure, and incentives for not driving alone to work and instead ridesharing, taking transit, biking, walking, or teleworking
3,845 6,803 5% 2%
Transportation-4.2 Implement an Electric Vehicle Carshare Program in which vehicles are available for users on-demand for short-term rentals NA NA NA NA
Transportation-4.3 Implement a bikeshare/scooter share program in which conventional or electric powered bikes or scooters are available to users on-demand for short-term rentals NA NA NA NA Transportation-4.4
Provide Community-Based Travel Planning (CBTP) to households in the city in which trained travel advisors visit households to provide them with customized information, incentives, and support to encourage use of transportation options other than driving alone
NA NA NA NA
Transportation-5.1 Install EV chargers in new residential, commercial, and industrial projects Transportation-5.2 Install publicly accessible EV chargers on existing private property Transportation-5.3 Install EV chargers on public property Transportation-5.4 Electrify loading docks and/or require idling-reduction systems NA NA NA NA Transportation-5.5 Limit new gasoline/diesel fueling stations NA NA NA NA Strategy Energy-1a. Increase energy
efficiency and electrification in existing
residential
buildings
Energy-1.1 Retrofit existing residential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce natural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking 9,667 29,002 12% 9% Strategy Energy-1b. Increase energy
efficiency and electrification in existing
nonresidential
buildings
Energy-1.2 Retrofit existing nonresidential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce natural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking. 2,077 9,969 3% 3% Strategy Energy-2a. Increase energy
efficiency and electrification in new
residential buildings
Energy-2.1 Require new residential development to be all-electric, zero net energy (ZNE) buildings (where the amount of energy used in a year equals the amount of energy generated on the site) 1,411 5,097 2% 2% Energy-2b Increase energy efficiency
and electrification in new
nonresidential
buildings
Energy-2.2 Require new nonresidential development to achieve energy efficiency above minimum State building code requirements (CAL Green Tier 2) 428 1,545 0% 1% Offroad-1.1
Replace existing gasoline and diesel-powered landscaping equipment with electric or zero emission alternatives
83 138 0% 0%
Offroad-1.2 Convert new landscaping equipment to electric or zero-emission alternatives 46 123 0% 0% Offroad-2.1 Increase electrification and use of alternative fuels in construction projects 1,681 9,248 2% 3% Offroad-2.2 Reduce construction vehicle idling NA NA NA NA Water-1.1 Reduce indoor water use in existing and new buildings 0 0 NA NA Water-1.2 Reduce outdoor water use for landscaping and irrigation in existing and new developments 0 0 NA NA Solid Waste-1.1 Increase recovery of edible food waste
Solid Waste-1.2 Eliminate disposal of organic waste in landfills (food waste, yard waste) Strategy Carbon Sequestration-1.
Remove emissions from the
atmosphere
Carbon Storage-1.1 Increase the number of trees in the city, through new plantings and management of existing trees 441 1,042 1% 0% Total Reductions from City Measures 79,628 307,625 Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecast Emissions (without CAP measures) 515,352 529,788 Target Percent Reduction below 2019 Levels 36% 81%
Target Annual Emissions 438,283 129,252 Reductions Needed to Achieve Target 77,070 400,536 Legislative-Adjusted BAU Forecast Emissions with CAP Measures 435,724 222,163 Gap Needed to Achieve Target* -2559 92,911 Percent of Target Achieved 103% 77%
10,204
26,997 171,334
Using Energy in Homes and Businesses (Building Energy Sector) Planting and Managing Trees (Carbon Sequestration Sector) Using Water and Disposing of Waste at Homes and Businesses (Water and Solid Waste Sectors) 11%32,590 11%
Strategy Water-1. Conserve water
5,768
Strategy Solid Waste-1. Avoid disposal
of organic waste in landfills 8,845
Strategy Offroad-2. Transition to
electric and zero emissions
technologies for construction
equipment
Strategy Offroad-1. Transition to
electric and zero emissions
technologies for landscaping
equipment
Using Equipment for Landscaping and Construction (Off-Road Vehicle and Equipment Sector) 34% 56%Strategy Transportation-5. Transition
to electric and zero emission vehicles
Strategy Transportation-3. Provide
transit options that are accessible,
reliable, and
convenient
Getting To, From, and Around the City (On-road Transportation Sector) City of Rancho Cordova
Communitywide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Measures Quantification Sheet Notes: NA = not applicable (non-quantified measure; supportive of quantified measures). * Negative numbers indicate target has been achieved with a surplus of emissions reductions; positive values indicate an emissions reduction gap still exists.
Strategy Transportation-2. Make
walking and biking safe and attractive
for people of all ages
and abilities
Strategy Transportation-1. Support
development of walkable,
interconnected neighborhoods,
villages, and districts
7% 3%
Strategy Transportation-4. Reduce
drive alone vehicle trips
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and Title Measure Code Measure Title
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Quantification Approach
Transportation-1.1
Enforce the City’s Transportation Impact Guidelines, which require developers to include features in their projects that decrease the amount of driving alone and encourage people to make trips by walking, biking, or using public transit 6,669 17,134 8% 6%
Assumes a 10% reduction in new passenger
VMT and 15% reduction in commercial VMT
by 2030, and a 15% reduction in both
passenger and commercial VMT by 2045. All
reductions from new VMT that would be
achieved from other measures are assumed
to be captured under this measure. "New
VMT" refers to forecasted VMT growth
between 2019 and the target years.
Transportation-1.2 Reduce or eliminate requirements to provide a minimum number of off-street parking spaces in new development projects NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-1.3 Improve street connectivity, for example by providing walkways at the ends of existing cul-de-sacs, or requiring walkable street systems in new developments NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-1.4 Limit the number of drive-through businesses NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-2.1 Update Bike and Pedestrian Master Plans to increase the number of low-stress bikeways and walkways that connect homes to destinations 11,536 12,755 14% 4% Assumes a 6% reduction in existing (2019) passenger VMT by 2030 and 7.5% by 2045.
Transportation-2.2
Install roundabouts to control traffic at intersections, instead of stop signs or traffic signals NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-2.3 Provide temporary or permanent car-free zones or “slow streets” in specified areas, for example, individual blocks or residential streets NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-2.4 Install measures to reduce vehicle speeds and calm traffic on city streets NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-3.1 Increase the frequency of SacRT bus, CordoVan service, and/or light rail service, or extend service to cover new areas or times of day
Transportation-3.2
Implement Transit-Supportive Roadway Treatments (for example, transit signal priority, bus-only signal phases, queue jumps, curb extensions to speed passenger loading, and dedicated bus lanes)
Transportation-3.3 Provide discounted or fare-free transit service (could be universal or targeted to specific areas and/or populations, for example, youth under 18)
Transportation-3.4 Expand the SmaRT Ride area and convert the shuttles to electric shuttles Transportation-4.1
Implement a Commuter Trip Reduction Program (CTR) in which companies provide employees with services, infrastructure, and incentives for not driving alone to work and instead ridesharing, taking transit, biking, walking, or teleworking 3,845 6,803 5% 2% Assumes a 2% reduction in existing (2019) passenger VMT by 2030 and 4% by 2045.
Transportation-4.2 Implement an Electric Vehicle Carshare Program in which vehicles are available for users on-demand for short-term rentals NA NA NA NA Reductions captured in EV measures (Transportation-5.1 - 5.3).
Transportation-4.3
Implement a bikeshare/scooter share program in which conventional or electric powered bikes or scooters are available to users on-demand for short-term rentals NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure (negligible reductions).
Transportation-4.4
Provide Community-Based Travel Planning (CBTP) to households in the city in which trained travel advisors visit households to provide them with customized information, incentives, and support to encourage use of transportation options other than driving alone
NA NA NA NA Reductions from this measure are reflected in Transportation-4.1
Transportation-5.1 Install EV chargers in new residential, commercial, and industrial projects Transportation-5.2 Install publicly accessible EV chargers on existing private property Transportation-5.3 Install EV chargers on public property Transportation-5.4 Electrify loading docks and/or require idling-reduction systems NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Transportation-5.5 Limit new gasoline/diesel fueling stations NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Assumes a 3% reduction in existing (2019)
passenger VMT by 2030 and 6% by 2045.
Grouped all measures together based on
CAPCOA transit-related measures (maximum
transit-related emissions reductions from
increased frequency, expanded coverage,
reduced fare, rapid transit -- 15% reduction).
Quantified using EMFAC projections and
statewide EV targets under the 2020 Mobile
Source Strategy and AB 2172.
34% 56%
Strategy Transportation-5.
Transition to electric and
zero emission vehicles
26,997 171,334
7% 3%
Strategy Transportation-4.
Reduce drive alone
vehicle trips
5,768 10,204
Getting To, From, and Around the City (On-road Transportation Sector) Strategy Transportation-1.
Support development of
walkable, interconnected
neighborhoods,
villages, and districts
Strategy Transportation-2.
Make walking and biking
safe and attractive for
people of all ages
and abilities
Strategy Transportation-3.
Provide transit options
that are accessible,
reliable, and
convenient
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Transportation-1.1
Enforce the City’s Transportation Impact Guidelines, which require developers to include features in their projects that decrease the amount of driving alone and encourage people to make trips by walking, biking, or using public transit 2019 2030 2045
10% reduction in new project-generated VMT from implementation of the City’s VMT Thresholds of Significance for Development Projects
Annual passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 705,862,131 822,688,562 1,004,017,191 New passenger VMT 116,826,431 298,155,061
Percent VMT reduction from SB 743 10% 15%
Reduced passenger VMT from SB 743 11,682,643 44,723,259 Passenger vehicle emissions factor (MTCO2e/mile) 0.000272 0.000241 GHG reductions from new passenger vehicles (MTCO2e) 3,182 10,775 Annual commercial vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 213,356,667 248,669,088 303,478,188 New commercial VMT 35,312,421 90,121,520
Percent VMT reduction from SB 743 15% 15%
Reduced commercial VMT from SB 743 5,296,863 13,518,228 Commercial vehicle emissions factor (MTCO2e/mile) 0.000658 0.000470 GHG reductions from new commercial vehicles (MTCO2e) 3,487 6,359 GHG Reductions from Transportation-1.1 (MTCO2e) 6,669 17,134 Sources:
City of Rancho Cordova Transportation Impact Guidelines ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Transportation-2.1
Update Bike and Pedestrian Master Plans to increase the number of low- stress bikeways and walkways that connect homes to destinations 2019 2030 2045
Increased active transportation
Annual existing passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 705,862,131 705,862,131 705,862,131 Percent reduction in existing citywide passenger VMT from comprehensive active transportation improvements [1] 6.0% 7.5%
Passenger VMT reduction 42,351,728 52,939,660
Passenger vehicle emissions factor (MTCO2e/mile) 0.000272 0.000241 GHG reductions from existing passenger vehicles (MTCO2e) 11,536 12,755 Sources:
Bicycle Master Plan (2016)
Develop continuous, convenient, and family friendly bikeway network.
Ensure new development extends the bicle network to all neighborhoods and attractors.
Ensure adequeate support facilities throughout Rancho Cordova's bicycle network.
Increase awareness of bicyclist safety and responsibility through education and enforcement of bicyclists and drivers.
Eliminate all traffic fatalities and reduce the number of bicycle related injuries by 50 percent by 2027.
Pursue innovative funding sources and partnership opportunities to enhance bicycle facilities, and provide education and encouragement opportunities.
Increase the percentage of all trips made by bicyclists from 1.1 percent to
2.2 percent in Rancho Cordova by 2021.
Establish Rancho Cordova as a destination for recreational bicycling through creation of a signature trail network and encouragement of bicycling and bicycling events.
Path Type Existing Proposed Total
Class I Paths 13.9 77 90.9
Class II Bike Lanes 14.7 12.5 27.2
Class III Bike Routes 2.4 3.2 5.6
Class III Bike Boulevards 0 14.5 14.5
Class IV Protected Bikeways 0 3.6 3.6
Total 31 110.8 141.8
https://www.cityofranchocordova.org/home/showpublisheddocument/114 16/635996042085130000
[1] CAPCOA. 2021. GHG Handbook. Available:
https://www.airquality.org/ClimateChange/Documents/Final%20Handbook_AB434.pdf.
T-18 Pedestrian Network Improvement, T-19 Bike Facility/Boulevard, and T-20 Expand Bikeway Network (maximum neighborhood design-related emissions reduction = 7.5% reduction) Table 4-1: Proposed Bikeway Network Mileage by Class
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Transportation-3.1, Transportation-3.2, Transportation-3.3, Transportation-3.4 Increase the frequency of SacRT bus, CordoVan service, and/or light rail service, or extend service to cover new areas or times of day. Implement Transit-Supportive Roadway Treatments (e.g., transit signal priority, bus-only signal phases, queue jumps, curb extensions to speed passenger loading, and dedicated bus lane). Provide discounted or fare-free bus service (could be citywide or targeted to specific areas and/or populations, e.g., youth under 18). Expand the SmaRT Ride area and convert the shuttles to electric shuttles
2019 2030 2045
Comprehensive transit system improvements
Annual existing passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 705,862,131 705,862,131 705,862,131 Percent reduction in existing citywide passenger VMT from comprehensive transit improvements [1] [2] [3] 3.0% 6.0% Passenger VMT reduction 21,175,864 42,351,728
Passenger vehicle emissions factor (MTCO2e/mile) 0.000272 0.000241 GHG reductions from existing passenger vehicles (MTCO2e) 5,768 10,204 Sources:
[1] Mozingo. 2021. Zero-Carbon Buildings in California: A Feasibility Study. The Center for Resource Efficient Communities and the Center for the Built Environment, UC Berkeley. (5.8% to 14.8% reduction)
[2] CAPCOA. 2021. GHG Handbook. Available: https://www.airquality.org/ClimateChange/Documents/Final%20Handbook_AB434.pdf.
T-25 Extend Coverage/Hours, T-26 Increase Frequency, T-27 Roadway Treatments, T-28 Rapid Transit, and T-29: Reduce Transit Fares (maximum transit-related emissions reduction = 15% reduction)
[3] Handy, S. et al. (2013). Impacts of Transit Service Strategies on Passenger Vehicle Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Policy Brief and Technical Background Document.
California Air Resources Board. Retrieved from: https://arb.ca.gov/cc/sb375/policies/policies.htm. (0.5% to 10.5% reduction) ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Transportation-4.1
Implement a Commuter Trip Reduction Program (CTR) in which companies provide employees with services, infrastructure, and incentives for not driving alone to work and instead ridesharing, taking transit, biking, walking, or teleworking
2019 2030 2045
Passenger VMT reductions from CTR Program
Annual existing passenger vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 705,862,131 705,862,131 705,862,131 Percent reduction in existing citywide passenger VMT from CTR Program (voluntary and mandatory programs estimated 4% and 26%) [1]
2.0% 4.0%
Passenger VMT reduction 14,117,243 28,234,485
Passenger vehicle emissions factor (MTCO2e/mile) 0.000272 0.000241 GHG reductions from existing passenger vehicles (MTCO2e) 3,845 6,803 Sources:
[1] CAPCOA. 2021. GHG Handbook. Available: https://www.airquality.org/ClimateChange/Documents/Final%20Handbook_AB434.pdf.
TR-5 Implement Voluntary CTR Program and TR-6 Implement Mandatory CTR Program. (Note: Scale of Application for these measure is Project/Site, with a reduction of 4-26%. Maximum reduction for Plan/Community is 2.3%.) ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Transportation-5.1, Transportation-5.2, Transportation-5.3 Install EV chargers in new residential, commercial, and industrial projects; Install publicly accessible EV chargers on existing private property; Install EV chargers on public property
2019 2030 2045
Statewide Light-Duty EV Forecasts and Targets
Statewide Light Duty Population [1] 26,905,738 27,823,204 30,102,489 Statewide Light Duty EV population [1] 301,382 1,413,449 2,333,152 Statewide Light Duty EV Population Target under EO N-79-20 (5 million baseline scenario, 8 million high scenario) [2] 5,000,000 25,587,116 Target Percent EVs in Passenger Vehicles Statewide 18% 85% Target Percent EVs in Passenger Vehicles for Rancho Cordova 18% 85% EMFAC2021 Forecasts
Light Duty eVMT in Sacramento County [1] 757,645,077 1,174,264,221 Light Duty VMT in Sacramento County [1] 13,097,501,302 14,315,240,607 Percent eVMT in Sacramento County 5.8% 8.2%
Forecasted eVMT in Rancho Cordova
Rancho Cordova Passenger VMT after reduction from other measures 733,361,084 835,768,059 Forecasted eVMT in Rancho Cordova 42,422,398 68,557,180 Target eVMT in Rancho Cordova 131,789,474 710,402,850
Additional eVMT needed to meet State Targets 89,367,076 641,845,670 Additional GHG emissions from EV charger use
Additional eVMT needed to meet State Targets 89,367,076 641,845,670 Average Efficiency of EV LDV (kWh/100-mi) [3] 34 34 Charged amount (kWh) 3,005,236,404 21,583,988,989
Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Additional GHG emissions from EVs (MTCO2e) - - Emissions from Equivalent Gasoline/Diesel Vehicles
Additional eVMT needed to meet State Targets 89,367,076 641,845,670 Avg emissions factor for non-electric light-duty vehicles (MTCO2e/mi) 0.000302089 0.000266939 Equivalent GHG emissions avoided from increased EV chargers (MTCO2e) 26,997 171,334 Sources:
Notes
16 public charging stations (https://chargehub.com/en/countries/united-states/california/rancho-cordova.html) 70 total stations (https://www.plugshare.com/directory/us/california/rancho-cordova) 2019 2030 2045
Rancho Cordova Passenger VMT 705,862,131 822,688,562 1,004,017,191 Sac County Passenger VMT (EMFAC) 11,549,499,458 13,097,501,302 14,315,240,607 Percent Rancho Cordova 6.11% 6.28% 7.01%
Sac County Increase in EV Population Needed 202,817 1,073,091 Rancho Cordova EV Population Needed 12,739 75,263 Rancho Cordova Existing EVs 500 500
Statewide Chargers Needed to Support 5mil ZEV by 2030 755,157 Statewide Chargers Needed to Support 8mil ZEV by 2030 1,228,880 Percent Difference 163%
Sacramento County Chargers Needed to Support 8mil ZEV by 2030 39,633 Sacramento County Chargers Needed to Support 5mil ZEV by 2030 24,355 Rancho Cordova Chargers Needed to Support 5mil ZEV by 2030 1,530 [2] Assembly Bill 2127 Electric Vehicle Charging InfrastructureAssessment (Staff Report). January 2021. [1] EMFAC 2021. (Note: EMFAC 2021 does not account for statewide EV targets under EO N-79-20.) [3] https://www.driveclean.ca.gov/pev/Charging.php
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and Title Measure
Code Measure Title
GHG Reduction
Potential in 2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Quantification Approach
Strategy Energy-1a. Increase energy efficiency
and electrification in existing residential
buildings
Energy-1.1
Retrofit existing residential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce natural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking
9,667 29,002 12% 9% Assumes a 20% reduction in existing residential natural gas by 2030 and 60% reduction by 2045.
Strategy Energy-1b. Increase energy efficiency
and electrification in existing nonresidential
buildings
Energy-1.2
Retrofit existing nonresidential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce natural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking.
2,077 9,969 3% 3% Assumes a 13% reduction in existing nonresidential natural gas by 2030 amd 48% reduction by 2045.
Strategy Energy-2a. Increase energy efficiency
and electrification in new residential buildings Energy-2.1 Require new residential development to be all-electric, zero net energy (ZNE) buildings (where the amount of energy used in a year equals the amount of energy generated on the site)
1,411 5,097 2% 2% Assumes a 100% reduction in new residential natural gas starting in 2026.
Energy-2b Increase energy efficiency and
electrification in new nonresidential buildings Energy-2.2 Require new nonresidential development to achieve energy efficiency above minimum State building code requirements (CAL Green Tier 2) 428 1,545 0% 1% CAL Green Tier 2: 30% reduction in new nonresidential energy use starting in 2026.
Using Energy in Homes and Businesses (Building Energy Sector) ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Energy-1.1
Retrofit existing residential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce natural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking 2019 2030 2045
Electrification in existing residential buildings
Existing residential buildings natural gas usage (therms) 9,082,624 9,082,624 9,082,624 Target electrification rate for existing residential buildings (natural gas) [1] 20% 60% Reduced natural gas usage (therms) 1,816,525 5,449,574
Natural gas emissions factor (MTCO2e/therm) 0.005322 0.005322 GHG reductions from existing residential buildings natural gas savings (MTCO2e) 9,667 29,002 Additional electricity use and emissions
Assumed average efficiency of natural gas heating [2] [3] 78% 78% Assumed average efficiency of electric heating [4] 100% 100% kWh per therm conversion 29.3 29.3
Total therms offset from natural gas heating use (therms) 1,816,525 9,082,624 Total electricity needed to offset natural gas heating (MWh) 41,515 207,574 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Additional GHG emissions from electricity use (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Energy-1.1 (MTCO2e) 9,667 29,002 Sources:
Total Housing Units 20,000
Percent retrofitted by 2030 4000
Percent retrofitted by 2045 12000
[2] https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/fupwg_may2014_new_gas_technologies.pdf [4] U.S. DOE. 2021. Electric Resistance Heating. Available: https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/home-heating-systems/electric-resistance- heating#:~:text=Electric%20resistance%20heating%20is%20100,the%20fuel's%20energy%20into%20electricity. [3] https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/a1602.pdf [1] Mozingo. 2021. Zero-Carbon Buildings in California: A Feasibility Study. Available:
https://crec.berkeley.edu/uploads/16RD004_CREC_ZCB_Final_Report_w__Appendices_(1).pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Energy-1.2
Retrofit existing nonresidential buildings to improve energy efficiency and reduce tural gas consumption for end uses like space and water heating, clothes drying, cooking. 2019 2030 2045
Electrification in existing nonresidential buildings
Existing nonresidential buildings natural gas usage (therms) 3,902,601 3,902,601 3,902,601 Target electrification rate for existing nonresidential buildings (natural gas) [1] 10% 48% Reduced natural gas usage (therms) 390,260 1,873,248
Natural gas emissions factor (MTCO2e/therm) 0.005322 0.005322 GHG reductions from existing nonresidential buildings natural gas savings (MTCO2e) 2,077 9,969 Additional electricity use and emissions
Assumed average efficiency of natural gas heating [2] [3] 78% 78% Assumed average efficiency of electric heating [4] 100% 100% kWh per therm conversion 29.3 29.3
Total therms offset from natural gas heating use (therms) 390,260 3,902,601 Total electricity needed to offset natural gas heating (MWh) 8,919 89,190 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Additional GHG emissions from electricity use (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Energy-1.2 (MTCO2e) 2,077 9,969 Sources:
[2] https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/fupwg_may2014_new_gas_technologies.pdf [3] https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/a1602.pdf [4] U.S. DOE. 2021. Electric Resistance Heating. Available: https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/home-heating-systems/electric-resistance- heating#:~:text=Electric%20resistance%20heating%20is%20100,the%20fuel's%20energy%20into%20electricity. [1] Mozingo. 2021. Zero-Carbon Buildings in California: A Feasibility Study. Available:
https://crec.berkeley.edu/uploads/16RD004_CREC_ZCB_Final_Report_w__Appendices_(1).pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Energy-2.1
Require new residential development to be all-electric, zero net energy (ZNE) buildings (where the amount of energy used in a year equals the amount of energy generated on the site)
2019 2026 2030 2045
All-electric new residential development
Annual residential natural gas usage with legislative reductions (therms) 9,082,624 9,546,705 9,811,893 10,504,366 New natural gas usage (therms) 464,081 729,269 1,421,742 Reduced residential natural gas usage from all-electric new residential development starting in 2026 (therms) 265,189 957,662
Natural gas emissions factor (MTCO2e/therm) 0.005322 0.005322 GHG reductions from new residential buildings natural gas savings (MTCO2e) 1,411 5,097 Additional electricity use and emissions
Assumed average efficiency of natural gas heating [1] [2] 78% 78% Assumed average efficiency of electric heating [3] 100% 100% kWh per therm conversion 29.3 29.3
Total therms offset from natural gas heating use (therms) 265,189 10,504,366 Total electricity needed to offset natural gas heating (MWh) 6,061 240,067 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Additional GHG emissions from electricity use (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Energy-2.1 (MTCO2e) 1,411 5,097 Sources:
[1] https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/fupwg_may2014_new_gas_technologies.pdf [2] https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/a1602.pdf [3] U.S. DOE. 2021. Electric Resistance Heating. Available: https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/home-heating-systems/electric-resistance- heating#:~:text=Electric%20resistance%20heating%20is%20100,the%20fuel's%20energy%20into%20electricity.
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Energy-2.2
Require new nonresidential development to achieve energy efficiency above minimum State building code requirements (CAL Green Tier 2) 2019 2026 2030 2045 Efficient new nonresidential development - CAL Green Tier 2 Annual nonresidential natural gas usage with legislative reductions (therms) 9,082,624 9,546,705 9,811,893 10 ,504,366 New natural gas usage (therms) 464,081 729,269 1,421,742 Annual nonresidential electricity usage with legislative reductions (kWh) 416,664,459 439,785,444 452,997,435 486,192,548 New electricity usage (kWh) 23,120,985 36,332,976 69,528,089 Annual nonresidential diesel usage with legislative reductions (gal) 92,209 97,326 100,250 107,596 New diesel usage (gal) 5,117 8,041 15,387
Reduction in new energy use from CAL Green Tier 2 compared to Title 24 30% 30% Reduced natural gas usage from new nonresidential development starting in 2026 (therms) 79,557 287,299 Reduced electricity usage from new nonresidential development starting in 2026 (therms) 1,981,799 6,961,066 Reduced diesel usage from new nonresidential development starting in 2026 (therms) 439 1,541 Natural gas emissions factor (MTCO2e/therm) 0.005322 0.005322 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Di
esel emissions factor (MTCO2e/gal) 0.010229 0.010229
GHG reductions from new nonresidential buildings energy savings (MTCO2e) 428 1,545 Additional electricity use and emissions
Assumed average efficiency of natural gas heating [1] [2] 78% 78% Assumed average efficiency of electric heating [3] 100% 100% kWh per therm conversion 29.3 29.3
Total therms offset from natural gas heating use (therms) 79,557 10,504,366 Total electricity needed to offset natural gas heating (MWh) 1,818 240,067 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Additional GHG emissions from electricity use (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Additional GHG emissions from electricity use (MTCO2e) (MTCO2e) 428 1,545 Sources:
[1] https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/05/f15/fupwg_may2014_new_gas_technologies.pdf [2] https://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/a1602.pdf [3] U.S. DOE. 2021. Electric Resistance Heating. Available: https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/home-heating-systems/electric-resistance- ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and Title Measure Code Measure Title
GHG Reduction
Potential in 2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Quantification Approach
Offroad-1.1
Replace existing gasoline and diesel-powered
landscaping equipment with electric or
zero emission alternatives
83 138 0% 0%
Assumes a 30% electrification rate of existing fossil
fuel landscaping equipment by 2030, and 100% by
2045. Assumes a 30% renewable diesel/alternative
fuels conversion rate by 2030.
Offroad-1.2 Convert new landscaping equipment to electric or zero-emission alternatives 46 123 0% 0% Assumes 100% of new landscaping equipment are
zero-emission by 2024. Consistent with CARB's
SORE regulations.
Offroad-2.1 Increase electrification and use of alternative fuels in construction projects 1,681 9,248 2% 3%
Assumes a 10% electrification rate of existing fossil
fuel construction equipment by 2030, and 50% by
2045. Assumes a 10% renewable diesel/alternative
fuels conversion rate by 2030, and 40% by 2045.
Assumes a 10% reduction in diesel generator use
by 2030 and a 60% reduction by 2045.
Offroad-2.2 Reduce construction vehicle idling NA NA NA NA Non-quantified measure.
Strategy Offroad-2. Transition to
electric and zero emissions
technologies for construction
equipment
Using Equipment for Landscaping and Construction (Off-Road Vehicle and Equipment Sector) Strategy Offroad-1. Transition to
electric and zero emissions
technologies for landscaping
equipment
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Offroad-1.1
Replace existing gasoline and diesel-powered landscaping equipment with electric or zero emission alternatives 2019 2030 2045
Electric landscaping equipment
Existing landscaping equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 138 138 138 Target electrification rate for existing landscaping equipment [1] 30% 100% Reduced landscaping emissions (MTCO2e) 41 138
GHG reductions from electric landscaping equipment (MTCO2e) 41 138 Renewable diesel or other alternative fuels landscaping equipment Existing landscaping equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 138 138 138 Target renewable diesel/alternative fuels rate for existing landscaping equipment [1] 30% 0% Reduced landscaping emissions (MTCO2e) 41 0
GHG reductions from renewable diesel landscaping equipment (MTCO2e) 41 - GHG Reductions from Offroad-1.1 (MTCO2e) 83 138 Sources:
[1] California Air Resources Board. 2021. 2021 SORE Rulemaking Staff Report. Available:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/regact/2021/sore21/isor.pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Offroad-1.2
Convert new landscaping equipment to electric or zero-emission altertives 2019 2023 2030 2045 Zero-emission new landscaping equipment starting in 2024 Landscaping equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 138 164 211 287 New landscaping equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 26 73 150
New landscaping equipment emissions starting in 2024 (MTCO2e) 46 123 Percent of new landscaping equipment that is zero-emission [1] 100% 100% Reduced landscaping emissions (MTCO2e) 46 123
GHG Reductions from Offroad-1.2 (MTCO2e) 46 123 Sources:
[1] California Air Resources Board. 2021. CARB approves updated regulations requiring most new small off-road engines be zero emission by 2024. Available:
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-approves-updated-regulations-requiring-most-new-small-road-engines-be-zero-emission-2024 ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Offroad-2.1
Increase electrification and use of altertive fuels in construction projects 2019 2030 2045
Electric construction equipment
Construction emissions (MTCO2e) 5,350 7,500 9,675
Target electrification rate for construction equipment 10% 50% Reduced construction equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 750 4,837 GHG reductions from electric construction equipment (MTCO2e) 750 4,837 Alternatively fueled construction equipment
Construction emissions (MTCO2e) 5,350 7,500 9,675
Target renewable diesel or other alternative fuels rate for construction equipment 10% 40% Reduced construction equipment emissions (MTCO2e) 750 3,870 GHG reductions from alternatively fueled construction equipment (MTCO2e) 750 3,870 Renewable diesel and other clean generator alternatives Dwelling Units 28,926 38,574 47,780
Employees 61,991 73,604 84,213
SQFT per employee (for average office space) 200 200 200 Total Commercial Office SQFT 12,398,275 14,720,777 16,842,698 CalEEMod Results for Construction-related generators used to construct new single family homes and commercial office space
CalEEMod Inputs 2019-2030 2030-2045
Single Family Homes (Dwelling Unit) 9,648 9,206
Office Park (sqft) 2,322,502 2,121,921
Adjusted down to account for 33 acre limitation in CalEEMod 2020.4.0 Single Family Homes (Dwelling Unit) 102 97
Office Park (sqft) 24,447 22,336
Adjustment Factor 95 95
Total Reported Construction Generator Emissions (MTCO2e) 209 142 Annual Reported Construction Generators Emissions (MTCO2e) 19 9 Readjusted Annual Construction Generator Emissions (MTCO2e) 1,808 901 Target reduction in diesel generator use from renewable diesel or other clean alternatives 10% 60% GHG reductions from renewable diesel or other clean generators (MTCO2e) 181 541 GHG Reductions from Offroad-2.1 (MTCO2e) 1,681 9,248 Sources:
[2] CARB OFFROAD 2021 (Sacramento County 2019)
[1] CAPCOA. 2021. GHG Handbook. Available: https://www.airquality.org/ClimateChange/Documents/Final%20Handbook_AB434.pdf.
C-1-A Use Electric or Hybrid Powered Equipment and C-1-B Use Cleaner-Fuel Equipment ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and Title Measure Code Measure Title
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Quantification Approach
Solid Waste-1.1 Increase recovery of edible food waste
Solid Waste-1.2 Eliminate disposal of organic waste in
landfills (food waste, yard waste)
Using Water and Disposing of Waste at Homes and Businesses (Water and Solid Waste Sectors) 11% 11%
Assumes a 30% reduction in landfill disposed
waste compared to 2019 by 2030, and a 90%
reduction by 2045.
Strategy Solid Waste-1. Avoid
disposal of organic waste in
landfills
8,845 32,590
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Solid Waste-1.1, Solid Waste-1.2
Increase recovery of edible food waste; Elimite disposal of organic waste in landfills (food waste, yard waste) 2019 2030 2045
Achieve Zero Waste (i.e., 90% reduction below 2019 levels) by 2045 Solid waste emissions (MTCO2e) 22,397 29,483 36,211
Percent reduction in landfill disposed waste compared to 2019 30% 90% Reduced solid waste emissions (MTCO2e) 8,845 32,590
GHG Reductions from Solid Waste-1.1, Solid Waste-1.2 (MTCO2e) 8,845 32,590 Sources:
Senate Bill 1383
2030 2045
Tons of waste 78,276 96,139
Reduced tons of waste 23,483 86,525
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and
Title
Measure
Code Measure Title
GHG Reduction
Potential in
2030 (MTCO2e)
GHG Reduction
Potential in
2045 (MTCO2e)
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2045
Quantification Approach
Water-1.1 Reduce indoor water use in existing and new buildings 0 0 NA NA Annual reduction of 15,000 acre-feet (AF) of
indoor water usage by 2030 and 28,000 AF by
2045.
Water-1.2 Reduce outdoor water use for landscaping and irrigation in existing and new developments 0 0 NA NA Annual reduction of 15,000 AF of outdoor water usage by 2030 and 29,000 AF by 2045.
Using Water and Disposing of Waste at Homes and Businesses (Water and Solid Waste Sectors) Strategy Water-1.
Conserve water
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Water-1.1
Reduce indoor water use in existing and new buildings 2019 2030 2045 Water use reduction in existing buildings
Total existing water use (AF) 65,645 65,645 65,645
Total existing water-related electricity use (MWh) 38,926 38,926 38,926 Assumed percentage of indoor water use [1] [2] 60% 60% 60% Indoor water use in existing buildings (AF) 39,387 39,387 39,387 Indoor water-related electricity use in existing buildings (MWh) 23,355 23,355 23,355 Percent reduction in indoor water use in existing buildings [1] [2] [3] 25% 40% Reduction in indoor water use in existing buildings (AF) 9,847 15,755 Reduction in indoor water-related electricity use in existing buildings (MWh) 5,839 9,342 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Reduced indoor water emissions from existing buildings (MTCO2e) 0 0 Water use reduction in new buildings
Total water use (AF) 65,645 86,412 106,132
Total water-related electricity use (MWh) 38,926 51,240 62,934 Total water use in new buildings (AF) 20,767 40,487
Total water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 12,315 24,008 Assumed percentage of indoor water use [1] [2] 60% 60% 60% Indoor water use in new buildings (AF) 12,460 24,292
Indoor water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 7,389 14,405 Percent reduction in indoor water use in new buildings [1] [2] [3] [4] 40% 50% Reduction in indoor water use in new buildings (AF) 4,984 12,146 Reduction in indoor water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 2,956 7,202 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Reduced indoor water emissions from new buildings (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Water-1.1 (MTCO2e) 0 0
Sources:
[1] Pacific Institute and Natural Resources Defense Council. 2014. Urban Water Conservation and Efficiency Potential in California. Available:
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/ca-water-urban.pdf [3] CAPCOA. 2010. Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures. WUW-1. Available: http://www.capcoa.org/wp- content/uploads/downloads/2010/09/CAPCOA-Quantification-Report-9-14-Final.pdf WUW-1: 20% for residential and 31% for nonresidential low-flow fixtures. Assuming increase for ultra-low-flow, especially in new development [2] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2022. WaterSense - Statistics and Facts. Available: https://www.epa.gov/watersense/statistics-and-facts [4] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2017. Water-Smart Landscapes -Start with WaterSense. Available:
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2017-01/documents/ws-outdoor-water-efficient-landscaping.pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Water-1.2
Reduce outdoor water use for landscaping and irrigation in existing and new developments 2019 2030 2045
Outdoor water use reduction in existing buildings
Total existing water use (AF) 65,645 65,645 65,645
Total existing water-related electricity use (MWh) 38,926 38,926 38,926 Assumed percentage of outdoor water use [1] [2] 40% 40% 40% Outdoor water use in existing buildings (AF) 26,258 26,258 26,258 Outdoor water-related electricity use in existing buildings (MWh) 15,570 15,570 15,570 Percent reduction in outdoor water use in existing buildings [1] [2] [3] [4] 40% 60% Reduction in outdoor water use in existing buildings (AF) 10,503 15,755 Reduction in outdoor water-related electricity use in existing buildings (MWh) 6,228 9,342 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Reduced outdoor water emissions from existing buildings (MTCO2e) 0 0 Outdoor water use reduction in new buildings
Total water use (AF) 65,645 86,412 106,132
Total water-related electricity use (MWh) 38,926 51,240 62,934 Total water use in new buildings (AF) 20,767 40,487
Total water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 12,315 24,008 Assumed percentage of outdoor water use [1] [2] 40% 40% 40% Outdoor water use in new buildings (AF) 8,307 16,195
Outdoor water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 4,926 9,603 Percent reduction in outdoor water use in new buildings [1] [2] [3] [4] 50% 80% Reduction in outdoor water use in new buildings (AF) 4,153 12,956 Reduction in outdoor water-related electricity use in new buildings (MWh) 2,463 7,683 Electricity emissions factor (MTCO2e/MWh) 0 0
Reduced outdoor water emissions from new buildings (MTCO2e) 0 0 GHG Reductions from Water-1.2 (MTCO2e) 0 0
Sources:
[1] Pacific Institute and Natural Resources Defense Council. 2014. Urban Water Conservation and Efficiency Potential in California. Available:
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/ca-water-urban.pdf [2] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2022. WaterSense - Statistics and Facts. Available: https://www.epa.gov/watersense/statistics-and-facts [4] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2017. Water-Smart Landscapes -Start with WaterSense. Available:
https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2017-01/documents/ws-outdoor-water-efficient-landscaping.pdf [3] CAPCOA. 2010. Quantifying Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Measures. WUW-2 through WUW-6. Available: http://www.capcoa.org/wp- content/uploads/downloads/2010/09/CAPCOA-Quantification-Report-9-14-Final.pdf ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Strategy Code and Title Measure Code Measure Title
GHG Reduction
Potential in 2030
(MTCO2e)
GHG
Reduction
Potential in
2045
(MTCO2e)
Percent of Total
Reductions in
2030
Percent of
Total
Reductions in
2045
Strategy Carbon Sequestration-
1. Remove emissions from the
atmosphere
Carbon Storage-1.1
Increase the number of trees in the city, through new plantings and management of existing trees 441 1,042 1% 0% Assumed 750 new residential trees and 750 new City-managed trees planted every year. Used existing (2019) tree inventory and carbon sequestration data from the City's 2022 Urban Forest Master Plan.
Planting and Managing Trees (Carbon Sequestration Sector) ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Carbon Storage-1.1
Increase the number of trees in the city, through new plantings and management of existing trees 2019 2030 2045
Planting new trees
Existing trees [1] 3,910
Annual carbon sequestration from existing trees (metric tons carbon/year) [1] 29 Conversion factor for carbon to carbon dioxide (ratio of molecular weights = 44/12) 3.67 Annual carbon sequestration per tree (MTCO2e/tree/year) 0.02673 New residential trees per year [1] 750
New City-managed trees per year [1] 750
Total new trees [1] 16,500 39,000
Increased carbon sequestration from new trees (MTCO2e) 441 1,042 GHG Reductions from Carbon Storage-1.1 (MTCO2e) 441 1,042 Sources:
[1] City of Rancho Cordova. 2022. Rancho Cordova Urban Forest Master Plan. Available:
https://www.cityofranchocordova.org/home/showpublisheddocument/18231/637880482211700000 ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Appendix F
Vulnerability Assessment
(Technical Memorandum)
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
455 Capitol Mall, Suite 300
Sacramento, CA 95814
916.444.7301
Date: October 11, 2021
To: Stefan Heisler
From: Kai Lord-Farmer, Dan Krekelberg, and Honey Walters (Ascent Environmental) Subject: City of Rancho Cordova Climate Action Plan - Vulnerability Assessment 1 INTRODUCTION
Global climate change is projected to exacerbate the impacts of certain hazards that the City of Rancho Cordova (City) is already exposed to under current conditions. These hazards include indirect impacts from wildfires and effects on air quality, extreme heat, heat wave events, long-term drought, and flooding. While many of these hazards have existed historically for the City, the frequency and intensity of these hazards will increase as a result of global climate change. This Vulnerability Assessment (VA) serves to identify and analyze impacts of climate change that will most directly affect the City. The VA includes a climate change vulnerability assessment and serves to inform development of adaptation strategies by analyzing the City’s exposure to existing hazards, sensitivity to these hazards, potential climate-related impacts from these hazards, and the City’s existing capacity to prepare and adapt for these impacts, known as adaptive capacity.
1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
The effects of climate change are already being experienced today. The combustion of fossil fuels, among other human activities, since the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century has introduced greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere at an accelerated pace, intensifying the greenhouse effect and leading to a trend of warming of the Earth’s climate, known as global climate change or global warming. Climate change has more recently become a priority on an international, national, and local scale as recent climate data reveal more extreme weather patterns, increased average global temperatures, and the rapid melting of the Earth’s Artic and Antarctic poles and glaciers.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body charged with compiling and i
nterpreting the data surrounding climate change, estimates that global average temperatures will increase by 3.7 degrees Celsius (°C) (6.7 to 8.6 degrees Fahrenheit [°F]) by the end of the century unless additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions are made (IPCC 2014). A more recent IPCC report indicates that average global temperatures will likely increase by 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) between 2030 and 2052 if global GHG emissions continue their current rate (IPCC 2018). There is consensus among the scientific community that a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) rise in global temperatures will likely cause catastrophic environmental disasters in certain locations including extreme heat, sea-level rise, and more severe and damaging precipitation events. These changes to Earth’s climate would contribute to more frequent storms and flooding, the displacement of coastal and tropical populations, food and water insecurity, catastrophic wildfire events, economic hardships, loss of biological resources, increased spread of vector-borne diseases, and degraded ambient air quality (IPCC 2018).
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City of Rancho Cordova Vulnerability Assessment
In August 2021, IPCC released the Six Assessment report which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. In this report, the IPCC states that observed increases in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere since around the year 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities. As a result, Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850 (IPCC 2021). The findings of highlight key new insights into the importance of global climate tipping points, thresholds in the global climate (e.g., global temperatures) that, when exceeded, can lead to large changes in the state of the climate system with one impact rapidly leading to a series of cascading events.
The Six Assessment report contain the body’s strongest warnings yet on the causes and impacts of climate change.
Importantly, the report notes that, in terms of solutions, “We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviors at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments. We must redefine our way of life and consumption (IPCC 2021).”
Efforts that focus on reducing the sources of climate change are termed climate change mitigation, GHG mitigation, or climate action. Efforts to reduce harm from the effects of a changing climate, are referred to as climate adaptation and resilience. Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between these two approaches. State law requires communities to address climate change mitigation in local planning and environmental review processes and climate adaptation in local long-range planning processes, such as general plans (CalOES 2020). Included below is a summary of the State requirements to address climate adaptation as part of the local planning process. Senate Bill 379 – This bill requires all cities and counties to include climate adaptation and resiliency strategies in the next update of their General Plans beginning January 1, 2017. The update must include:
o A vulnerability assessment that identifies the risks that climate change poses to the local jurisdiction and the geographic areas at risk from climate change impacts; o A set of adaptation and resilience goals, policies, and objectives based on the information specified in the climate vulnerability assessment for the protection of the community; and o A set of feasible implementation measures designed to carry out the goals, policies, and objectives identified pursuant to the adaptation objectives
Assembly Bill 747 – Requires the safety elements for cities and counties to be reviewed and updated as necessary to identify evacuation routes and their capacity, safety, and viability under a range of emergency scenarios upon the next revision of a local hazard mitigation plan on or after January 1, 2022, or beginning on or before January 1, 2022 if a local jurisdiction has not adopted a local hazard mitigation plan. Senate Bill 99 - This bill requires cities and counties, upon the next revision of the housing element on or after January 1, 2020, to review and update the safety element to include information identifying residential developments in hazard areas that do not have at least 2 emergency evacuation routes. Senate Bill 1035 – This bill requires cities and counties to revise the safety element upon each revision of the housing element or local hazard mitigation plan, but not less than once every 8 years, to identify new information relating to flood and fire hazards and climate adaptation and resiliency strategies applicable to the city or county that was not available during the previous revision of the safety element.
ITEM 11.2.
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City of Rancho Cordova Vulnerability Assessment
Source: CalOES 2020, adapted by Ascent Environmental in 2021.
Figure 1 Relationship Between Climate Mitigation and Adaptation
1.2 GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS
This section provides a summary of the guidance documents and resources that were used to help develop the VA.
California Adaptation Planning Guide
The most recent version of the California Adaptation Planning Guide (APG) was released in March 2020. This guidance builds upon the first iteration of the APG released in 2012. The APG was developed by the California Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA). The APG provides guidance to local governments for adaptation and climate change resiliency planning. The APG includes a step-by-step process that communities may use to help plan for the impacts of climate change. The APG is designed to be flexible and guide communities through an adaptation planning process that is best suited for their needs (CalOES 2020).
California’s Fourth Climate Assessment
CNRA, the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research (OPR), and the California Energy Commission (CEC) prepared California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment (Climate Assessment) in 2018. The Climate Assessment was designed to address critical information gaps that decisionmakers at the State, regional, and local levels need to close to protect and build the resilience of people, infrastructure, natural systems, working lands, and waterways from climate- related impacts. The Climate Assessment also includes regional reports which analyze and discuss the impacts to ITEM 11.2.
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City of Rancho Cordova Vulnerability Assessment
specific regions in the state. The regional report for the City and County is the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Region Report (Regional Report). The Climate Assessment and Regional Report are referenced throughout this VA to provide information regarding regional climate change impacts.
Safeguarding California Plan
Alongside the update to the Climate Assessment, CNRA released the Safeguarding California Plan in 2018 which provides a roadmap for State government action to build climate resilience. The Safeguarding California Plan identifies actions the State government will take to protect communities, infrastructure, services, and the natural environment from climate change impacts and includes strategies for use as local examples for climate adaptation.
1.3 ADAPTATION PLANNING PROCESS
The APG provides guidance for communities throughout the state in planning for and adapting to the impacts of climate change. The APG includes a four-phase process, illustrated in Figure 2 which allows communities to assess their specific climate vulnerabilities and provides guidance on developing strategies to reduce climate change-related risks and prepare for current and future impacts of climate change.
Source: CalOES 2020, adapted by Ascent Environmental in 2021.
Figure 2 Adaptation Planning Process
Phase 1, “Explore, Define, and Initiate,” includes scoping and defining the adaptation planning effort. Phase 1 also involves identifying key roles and stakeholders in the local government and throughout the community to contribute to the planning process. Potential climate change effects and important physical, social, and natural assets in the community are identified for further analysis.
Phase 2, “Assess Vulnerability,” includes an analysis of potential climate change impacts and adaptive capacity to determine the vulnerability of populations, natural resources, and community assets. The vulnerability assessment is composed of four steps: exposure, sensitivity and potential impacts, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability scoring. Phase 2 also integrates stakeholder and public input to provide a comprehensive assessment of the community’s sensitivity to climate change and its ability to adapt.
PHASE 1
Explore, Define,
& Initiate
PHASE 2
Assess
Vulnerability
PHASE 3
Define
Adaptation
Framework &
Strategies
PHASE 4
Implement,
Monitor ,
Evaluate ,
& Adjust
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City of Rancho Cordova Vulnerability Assessment
Phase 3, “Define Adaptation Framework and Strategies,” focuses on creating an adaptation framework and developing adaptation strategies based on the results of the vulnerability assessment. Adaptation strategies identify how the community will address the potential for harm based on the community’s resources, goals, values, needs, and regional context. Community input is needed to prioritize adaptation strategies, identify co- benefits of strategies, and determine implementation steps. Phase 4, “Implement, Monitor, Evaluate, and Adjust,” the adaptation framework is implemented, consistently monitored, evaluated, and adjusted based on continual learning, feedback, or triggers. The adaptation planning process is intended to be cyclical in nature. Adaptation goals and strategieswill be included in the City’s CAP which will contain a chapter that enumerates implementation planning policies. This section of the CAP will guide the implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of the adaptation policies.
The ultimate goal of the adaptation planning process is to improve community resilience in the face of a changing climate.
A resilient community is one that is prepared for current and future hazardous conditions and experiences less harm when a disaster happens. Resilient communities can prepare for and recover from hazards with an understanding that the climate is going to continue to change in predictable and unforeseen ways. Ongoing learning and monitoring of strategy implementation allow for adjustments to be made in response to new information and opportunities. 2 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
This section provides a comprehensive assessment of the City’s vulnerabilities to climate change. It identifies and characterizes the climate-related hazards and other climate effects that are anticipated to affect the City. The vulnerability assessment follows the process outlined in Phase 2 of the APG and is composed of the following four steps:
Exposure: The purpose of this step is to understand existing hazards within the City and how changes in climate variables (e.g., average temperature, precipitation) are projected to affect these hazards. Existing hazards that can be worsened by the effects of climate change are identified and described, based on historical data from sources such as the City’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.
Sensitivity and Potential Impacts: This step identifies a list of population groups and community assets that are sensitive to localized climate impacts. Climate-related hazards (e.g., flooding, wildfire) are generally projected to increase in severity, with the potential for climate change to generate new impacts that communities have not experienced historically. Using historical data, research from regional and State reports on climate impacts, and input from stakeholders, this step seeks to understand how sensitive populations and assets may be affected by climate impacts. Each hazard included in the VA is analyzed and given a qualitative score based on the criteria listed below in Table 1.
Table 1 Potential Impact Scoring
Score Potential Impact
Low Impact is unlikely based on projected exposure; would result in minor consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
Medium Impact is somewhat likely based on projected exposure; would result in some consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
High Impact is highly likely based on projected exposure; would result in substantial consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
Source: CalOES 2020.
Adaptive Capacity: The City, partner agencies, and regional organizations (e.g., Sacramento County, Sacramento Area Council of Governments)have already taken steps to build resilience and protect sensitive populations and assets from existing hazards. A full summary of partner agencies and regional organizations and their climate adaptation- ITEM 11.2.
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City of Rancho Cordova Vulnerability Assessment
related work is included in Section 2.6 “Adaptive Capacity”. Thus, the purpose of this step is to identify the City’s and partner agencies’ current capacity to address future climate impacts, referred to as adaptive capacity. The ability of the City to adapt to each of the identified climate impacts is determined through a review of existing plans, policies, and programs, and through stakeholder engagement. Adaptive capacity ratings are described in Table 2.
Table 1 Potential Impact and Adaptive Capacity Scoring
Score Adaptive Capacity
Low The population or asset lacks capability to manage climate impact; major changes would be required.
Medium The population or asset has some capacity to manage climate impact; some changes would be required.
High The population or asset has high capacity to manage climate impact; minimal to no changes are required.
Source: CalOES 2020.
Vulnerability Scoring: This step determines the City’s priority climate vulnerabilities through a scoring process.
Vulnerability scores are based on several factors including the severity of projected climate impacts, how sensitive certain populations and assets are to anticipated climate impacts, and whether sufficient adaptive capacity exists to manage future climate impacts. Table 3 presents the rubric used to determine the overall vulnerability scores based on the ratings for potential impacts and adaptive capacity.
Table 3 Vulnerability Scoring
Vulnerability Score
Potential Impacts
High 3 4 5
Medium 2 3 4
Low 1 2 3
High Medium Low
Adaptive Capacity
Source: CalOES 2020.
The vulnerability assessment helps the City understand which climate vulnerabilities are most urgent and should be prioritized during the adaptation strategy development phase as well as during strategy implementation.
Climate Change Impact Modeling and Projections
According to the work of IPCC and research conducted by the State alongside partner agencies and organizations, climate change is already affecting and will continue to affect the physical environment throughout California, including the City. To identify the local impacts of climate change in California, the CEC, and the University of California, Berkeley Geospatial Innovation Facility developed the scenario planning tool Cal-Adapt. The Cal-Adapt tool uses global climate simulation model data downscaled to a local and regional resolution to identify localized impacts from various climate metrics. Developers of the Cal-Adapt tool selected four priority global climate models to include in projections provided in the tool. This analysis uses the average of these four models to identify changes in temperature and extreme heat events.
The projected effects of climate change over the next century will vary depending on global GHG emissions trends.
The Cal-Adapt tool includes global climate simulation model data from two emissions scenarios, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), that were used in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. The RCPs represent scenarios that estimate the level of global GHG emissions through 2099. The RCP scenarios used in the Cal- Adapt tool are the RCP 8.5 (High Emissions) scenario, which represents a business-as-usual future emissions scenario that would result in atmospheric CO
2 concentrations exceeding 900 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, and the RCP 4.5 (Medium Emissions) scenario, which represents a lower GHG emissions future and likely the best-case scenario for ITEM 11.2.
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climate impacts, under which GHG emissions would peak in 2040 and then decline through the rest of the century, resulting in a CO2 concentration of about 550 ppm by 2100. The RCP trends assumed in the analysis are illustrated in Figure 3. The emissions scenarios depend on global GHG emissions trends in the future and the efficacy of global GHG reduction strategies proposed by the international community. Because the efficacy of the GHG reduction strategies and the likelihood that a certain RCP scenario will occur are uncertain, a discussion of both emissions scenarios and their subsequent impacts are included in this analysis.
Notes: CO2= carbon dioxide; ppm = parts per million; PgC = one billion metric tons of carbon; RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway.
Source: Goosse et al. 2010.
Figure 3 Representative Concentration Pathway Used in Global Climate Modeling The State’s Adaptation Planning Guide 2.0 (CalOES 2020) provides guidance on choosing appropriate RCP scenarios to be included in the analysis. For analysis of impacts through 2050, the draft Adaptation Planning Guide 2.0 suggests using a conservative approach based on the High Emissions scenario, but notes that impacts by 2050 under the Medium and High Emissions scenarios will vary based on local context.
The Cal-Adapt tool provides data on projected changes in annual average temperature and changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events. This analysis uses Cal-Adapt data to evaluate increases in annual average maximum temperatures, as well as shifts in the duration and frequency of extreme heat events in the future. The analysis also identifies at what point over the next approximately 80 years (2021–2099) changes in temperature and extreme heat events will begin to occur and at what magnitude. This exposure analysis uses the following time periods to analyze changes in climate variables under the Medium Emissions scenario for the near-term and midterm periods and Medium and High Emissions scenarios for the long-term period. The time periods are established as 30- year time intervals to gather accurate data on average changes in the climate, which is typically measured over 30- ITEM 11.2.
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year time periods or longer. This results in overlap among some time periods. Due to annual fluctuations in climate variables, climate data on shorter time periods may be less accurate and not reflect long-term averages (NOAA 2018).
The three time periods are:
near-term (2021–2050),
midterm (2040–2070), and
long-term (2070–2099).
2.1 COMMUNITY OVERVIEW
The City covers approximately 34.8 square miles of land, the majority of which historically consisted of flat grassland and oak woodlands. The City is generally bordered by the American River to the north, Hazel Ave and the boundary of the 100-year floodplain for the Consumnes River on the east, Jackson Highway on the south, and Bradshaw Road on the west.
Population Overview
The U.S. Census bureau estimates the City’s population to be 75,086 persons as of July 2019 (U.S. Census Bureau 2021). Table 4 illustrates the City’s demographics by sex, race, and age according to the U.S. Census. As shown, the majority of residents identify as white with those identifying as Hispanic being the second largest demographic group. In terms of youth and elderly populations, 42 percent of City residents are either under 18 years or over 65 years old, populations at increased risk from climate-related hazards. The City is highly educated: 88 percent of the population over 25 years old has at least a high school degree, and 29 percent of the population over 25 years old has a bachelor’s degree or higher (U.S. Census Bureau 2021).
Table 4 City Demographics by Sex, Race, and Age
Demographic Characteristics City of Rancho Cordova Sacramento County Population 47,459 1,552,058
Male 48% 49%
Female 52% 51%
White alone 42% 44%
Hispanic or Latino 23% 39%
Asian alone 14% 16%
Two or more races 9% 6%
Black or African American alone 10% 9%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone 0.4% 0.4%
Persons under 18 years 28% 23%
Between 18 and 64 years 59% 62%
Persons 65 years and older 13% 14%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2021.
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2.2 TEMPERATURE AND EXTREME HEAT ANALYSIS
Existing and Future Temperatures and Extreme Heat
The City has a mediterranean climate characterized by mild winters and hot, dry summers. The wet season runs from October through April, though there is occasional light rainfall in the summer months. The annual temperature mean is 61.1 °F, with monthly means ranging from 45.8°F in December to 75.4 °F in July. Summer high temperatures are often moderated by the “delta breeze”: which comes through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta from the San Francisco Bay. The City experiences temperatures in excess of 100°F during the summer and fall months, reaching daily maximum temperatures of 105-115°F (Sacramento County 2021).
As discussed in California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Region Report, changes in temperature and extreme heat events in northern California are anticipated to affect the Sacramento Valley Region (boundary defined in the Regional Report) (OPR et al. 2018). Changes for the Sacramento Valley region include more warming in the summer than the winter (with July–September increases of 2.7°F–10.8°F) and greater warming inland than in coastal regions (by as much as 7.2°F) (Pierce et al. 2018). Table 5 provides a summary of the projected temperature increases over the century for the City.
Future Changes in Temperature and Extreme Heat
As shown in Table 5, both annual maximum and minimum are projected to increase throughout the 21st century. The average annual maximum temperature in the City is projected to increase approximately six percent from 74.2°F historically (1961-1990) to 78.3°F in the near-term and increase approximately eight percent to 79.8°F in the midterm.
The average annual maximum temperature is projected to increase eight to 12 percent to 80.2°F and 83.1°F in the late-century period under the medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively. The average annual minimum temperature in the City is projected to increase approximately five percent from 49.3°F historically (1961-1990) to
52.9°F in the near-term and increase approximately six percent to 54.1°F in the midterm. In the late-century period, average annual minimum temperature is projected to increase between seven and 11 percent to 54.3°F and 57.7°F under the medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively (CEC 2021a). Increased temperatures in the City will influence secondary climate effects, including extreme heat events, wildfire, and drought. Figure 4 below illustrate the changes in annual average maximum temperature in the City and the County, highlighting the variability in temperature increases across the County throughout the 21st century.
Table 5 Changes in Average Annual Temperature in the City of Rancho Cordova Geography Average Annual
Temperature
Historic Average
Annual Temperature
(1961-1990)
Near-Term
(2021-2050)
Midterm
(2040-2070)
Late-Century (2070-2099)
Medium
Emissions
High
Emissions
City of Rancho
Cordova
Maximum Temperature (°F) 74.2 78.3 79.8 80.2 83.1
Minimum Temperature (°F) 49.3 52.9 54.1 54.3 57.7
Notes: °F = degrees Fahrenheit.
Source: CEC 2021a.
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Near-Term (2021 – 2050) Midterm (2040 – 2070)
Medium Emissions - Late Term (2070 – 2099) High Emissions - Late Term (2070 – 2099)
Source: Data downloaded from CEC and DWR in 2019.
Figure 4 Sacramento County Annual Average Maximum Temperature through 2099 ITEM 11.2.
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Along with increases in annual average temperature, the City is anticipated to experience increases in the average number of extreme heat days per year, as well as increases in the frequency and duration of heat wave events. Based on the parameters set in Cal-Adapt and for the purposes of this analysis, an extreme heat day is defined as a day between April and October with a maximum temperature of 103.6°F or above. This threshold was chosen because it is the 98th percentile of historic maximum temperature for days in the historic period (1961–1990), meaning 98 percent of all recorded temperatures in this period were below 103.6°F. This is also the recommended threshold by the Extreme Heat tool in Cal-Adapt. For the purposes of this analysis, a heat wave event is defined as a series of 4 or more days above 103.6°F. Table 6 illustrates the projected changes in extreme heat events. In the historic period, the maximum duration of days above 103.6°F is 2.5 days, which does not qualify as a heat wave based on the heat wave threshold used. By the midterm period, the City will experience heat wave events that qualify based on the established threshold.
Table 6 Changes in Extreme Heat in the City of Rancho Cordova Extreme Heat Event Extreme Heat Event
Metric Historic (1961-1990) Near-Term
(2021-2050)
Midterm
(2040-2070)
Late-Century (2070-2099)
Medium
Emissions
High
Emissions
Extreme heat days Days above 103.6°F 4 19 32 29 48
Heat wave events 4-day period above
103.6°F 0.2 1.4 4.8 4.0 7.8
Heat wave duration Consecutive days above
103.6°F 2.5 6.3 7.2 8.5 14.2
Notes: °F = degrees Fahrenheit.
Source: CEC 2021a.
As shown in Table 6, while heat waves have historically been infrequent in the City, with a historical average of less than one heat wave annually, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of heat waves. Under the high emissions scenario, the City is projected to still experience 19 extreme heat days in the near-term and 32 extreme heat days annually in the mid-term. By the late-century, the City will experience 29 extreme heat days per year under the medium emissions scenario and 48 extreme heat days per year under the high emissions scenarios.
In terms of heat wave events, the City is projected to experience approximately 1.4 heat waves per year in the near-term and 4.8 heat wave events in the midterm. By the late-century, the City is projected to experience 4 heat waves per year under the medium emissions scenario and 7.8 heat waves per year under the high emissions scenarios. The average number of days in the longest stretch of consecutive extreme heat days per year is also projected to increase.
Historically, the longest stretch of consecutive extreme heat days lasted for an average duration of approximately two- and-a-half days. The longest stretch of consecutive extreme heat days is projected to increase significantly to 6.3 days in the near-term period and 7.2 days by the midterm period. By late-century, the duration is projected to increase to an maximum length of 8.5 days under the medium emissions scenario and 14.2 days under the high emissions scenario (CEC 2021b). The timing of extreme heat days is also projected to change over the 21st century with more extreme heat days and heat wave events occurring earlier in the year (April through May) and more severe events occurring in the historically hot months of September and October (CEC 2021b).
Extreme Heat Sensitivity and Impacts
This section provides an overview of the anticipated impacts on the City from the increases in temperature and extreme heat, discussed above, and subsequent secondary impacts. The impact discussion is organized around the three analysis time periods.
Based on the information included in the exposure analysis, the impact analysis is intended to identify and describe impacts on the City’s built environment, vulnerable populations, and community functions anticipated to result from temperature increases and increases in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events. To help better understand ITEM 11.2.
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how and when these impacts will occur, a series of threshold indicators are used to assess how various aspects of the City’s normal functions are affected when temperature-related thresholds are exceeded.
Existing Heat Sensitivities and Urban Heat Island Effect Although the City’s mediterranean climate includes high temperatures during summer and fall months, the City’s urban land use patterns can intensify periods of extreme heat through the “urban heat island” (UHI) effect. The UHI effect is generally understood as the phenomenon of urban areas being significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas because of human activity and land use patterns in the built environment. Several factors contribute to the effect, with the primary cause being changes in land surfaces (EPA 2008). The albedo of a surface is the measure of the surface’s ability to reflect or absorb solar radiation, with darker surfaces having a lower albedo and absorbing more solar radiation. As urban areas develop over time, resulting in the development of more land surfaces with low albedos (e.g., asphalt pavement, dark building surfaces), more solar radiation is absorbed in these materials causing increased ambient temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Another factor contributing to the UHI effect is the loss of evapotranspiration in urban areas. Evapotranspiration, the movement of water to the air from sources such as the soil, plants, and bodies of water, reduces ambient air temperatures (EPA 2008). As cities grow and often reduce the extent of available vegetation that contributes to evapotranspiration, UHI effects are exacerbated.
Additionally, waste heat from human activities involving machinery (e.g., vehicle traffic, using air conditioning, industrial activity) can also contribute to the UHI effect, with excess heat absorbed by surrounding surfaces (Sailor 2011; Zhu et al. 2017).
Sensitive Land Uses
Land use patterns and the design of the built environment in urban areas play a large role in an area’s exposure to the UHI effect (Stone and Rodgers 2001; Solecki et al. 2005). Urban land uses with large, paved areas, low albedo, and less vegetation (e.g., commercial, industrial uses) tend to be subject to the UHI effect and have higher nearby ambient temperatures. Conversely, land uses with smaller percentages of paved surfaces and abundant vegetation (e.g., parks) tend to have lower average temperatures compared to other portions of urban areas. A study looking at the relationship between land use patterns and the UHI effect in Toronto, Canada found a statistically significant difference between average maximum temperatures for commercial and resource/industrial land uses and other surrounding land uses. The study also found the average low temperatures for parks, recreational land, and water bodies to be lower than those for surrounding land uses, likely because of increased evapotranspiration (Rinner and Hussain 2011). Additionally, areas that have higher concentrations of commercial and industrial land uses clustered together can have increased ambient and surface temperatures, with temperatures increasing relative to the size of these areas (Rinner and Hussain 2011). Increased temperatures in areas with concentrations of commercial and industrial land uses can also result in secondary impacts, including increased cooling demand for buildings, pavement deterioration, decreased air quality, and reduced stormwater quality from above-average-temperature runoff entering natural waterways and nearby ecosystems (Rinner and Hussain 2011).
The California Environmental Protection Agency has developed a UHI index (UHII) to assess the severity of the UHI effect in various urban areas throughout the state. The scores are based on the temperature difference over time between urban census tracts and nearby upwind rural reference points to demonstrate the relative difference in temperature caused by the urban environment (CalEPA 2019). Figure 5 shows the UHII effect for the County by census tract.
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Source: CalEPA 2019.
Figure 5 Urban Heat Island Index for Sacramento County As shown in Figure 5, compared to other urban areas in County, census tracts in the City being affected by the UHI effect but not as severely as other areas in the County. As discussed above, a number of factors contribute to the UHI effect. Factors that could be contributing to the City’s relatively low UHII score include the presence of rural land uses surrounding the City, particularly to the south and east of the City’s more urban areas. As the City continues to grow, developing medium and high-density transit-oriented land use patterns will be an important part of helping the City achieve its greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets included in the City’s CAP. However, as this growth occurs, it is also important to consider how new development may contribute to the UHI effect and include strategies to mitigate the UHI effect from new development in the City.
Transportation System Heat Sensitivities
Transportation systems are designed and constructed to withstand certain variabilities in weather and temperature based on observations of historical weather trends for specific climate regions (Li et al. 2011). The performance of transportation assets may begin to decline when the severity of extreme heat periods exceeds historical ranges, for example, rail buckling at temperatures above 111°F. The characteristics of extreme heat events will affect different transportation assets differently. Provided below is a summary of the quantitative and qualitative thresholds used to assess the impacts of climate change on the City’s transportation system. These thresholds were applied to the specific geography of the City using Cal-Adapt data and are presented in Table 7.
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Pavement Deterioration
The effect of temperature on the performance and integrity of pavement depends on a variety of factors, including material type (asphalt versus concrete), the albedo of the material, details specific to the material mixing and placement, and soils and materials in the subbase of the roadway (Harvey et al. 2000). The performance of pavement also is dependent on the traffic volumes and types of vehicles using the roadway (Harvey et al. 2000). Based on the City’s Standard Construction Specifications, based on Sacramento County Standards (Sacramento County 2016), roadways in the City use a binder within the asphalt mix with a Performance Grade of 64-16 means that roadways using this binder can withstand 7 consecutive days of pavement temperatures up to 64°C (147°F), after which point the heat can result in rutting along high-volume roadways and cause considerable safety issues. Based on guidance in the FHWA’s Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (FHWA 2017), this pavement temperature threshold can be translated into an ambient air temperature of 111°F. The UHI effect can increase ambient temperatures between 1.8°F and 5.4°F in urban areas compared to surrounding rural areas. Because the Cal-Adapt tool does not account for the added effects of the UHI effect in its projections, this analysis is conservative in setting a threshold for pavement impacts.
As a result, the threshold used for widespread impacts on pavement in the City is a 7-day consecutive heat wave with a maximum daily temperature of 108°F. The analysis in roadways using this threshold is included below in Section 2.4.2.
Rail Buckling
During periods of extreme heat, rail lines can expand and result in “buckling” in which tracks come out of alignment, resulting in serious safety issue. However, the risk of buckling is managed by designing the rail neutral temperature at 95-110°F (35-45°C), with tracks designed and fit into infrastructure that assumes operations at those temperatures could occur (OFCM 2002, Transportation Research Board and National Research Council 2008). For this analysis, the threshold for increased risk from rail buckling is days in which the maximum daily temperature is 111°F or above.
Public Transportation Operations and Bridges
Research has found that when daily maximum temperatures reach 100°F, air conditioning units in buses are placed under increased stress and risk of failure (Cambridge Systematics 2015). For this analysis, the threshold for public transportation is days per year with maximum temperatures above 100°F.
Additionally, research indicates that bridges are at increased risk from thermal expansion during periods above 100°F.
While bridges are designed to expand during periods of extreme heat, projected increases in extreme heat events could go beyond design criteria, resulting in cracking and crushing of the roadway deck, as well as increased maintenance costs (Transportation Research Board and National Research Council 2008). The number of days above 100°F is also used as a threshold to determine impacts on bridges (Zimmerman 1996).
Heat Sensitive Populations
Certain vulnerable populations in urban areas are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat and related hazards.
Vulnerable populations include persons over the age of 65, infants and children, individuals with chronic health conditions (e.g., cardiovascular disease, asthma), low-income populations, athletes, and outdoor workers (CDC 2019).
Increased temperatures have been reported to cause heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat syncope, and heat cramps, with certain vulnerable populations at increased probability of experiencing these effects (Kovats and Hajat 2008). Extreme heat can also worsen air quality, quickening the production of ozone in areas with increased concentrations of ozone precursors (i.e., oxides of nitrogen [NO
X] and reactive organic gases [ROG]) (Knowlton et al. 2004). This is of particular concern to the City because the Sacramento Valley Air Basin has high concentrations of ROG and NOX emissions and is currently in nonattainment status for California ambient air quality standards for ozone (SMAQMD 2017).
Alongside populations with health sensitivities, residents with specific sociodemographic characteristics are at increased sensitivity to extreme heat events (CDC 2019). Research has found that low-income residents spend a larger proportion of their income on utilities, including electricity use for cooling, with these residents being disproportionally affected during extreme heat events (Voelkel et al. 2018). Additionally, research has found that low- income neighborhoods can often have less tree coverage and park space, further contributing to the disproportionate impact on low-income residents (Zhu and Zhang 2008). Unhoused individuals are also at increased risk from extreme heat events with, generally, less access to places to cool off and healthcare resources during these ITEM 11.2.
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events. Additionally, decreased access to transportation services can further increase exposure and health risks from extreme heat events for the unhoused community (Ramin and Svoboda 2009).
Unlike thresholds for transportation assets, heat-related thresholds for populations in an urban area vary widely and depend on a number of factors, including the sensitivity of specific populations to heat (e.g., elderly, children). For this analysis, the California Heat Assessment Tool (CHAT) was used to identify how Heat Health Events (HHE) would increase in the future. An HHE, for the purposes of the tool, is defined as any event that results in negative public health impacts, regardless of the absolute temperature. The tool includes unique HHE threshold for locations throughout the state, specific to the climate and the historical sensitivity of people in that area to past extreme heat events. For this analysis, the CHAT tool and the projected increase in HHEs in the City is used as the threshold for this sensitivity. The heat wave event threshold, defined as a 4-day consecutive period with daily maximum temperatures above 103.1°F, is also used to identify various impacts from heat wave events.
Buildings and Energy Use
Changes in annual average temperature and extreme heat events are likely to effect buildings primarily through changes in energy use as well as disproportionate impacts on individuals residing in units that do not have air conditioning. Cal-Adapt provides data on the shifts in Cooling Degree Days and Heating Degree Days, which are measurements used to assess the energy demand needed for cooling and heating buildings in different climate zones throughout California. A degree day does not equate to a single day of the year but rather compares the mean (the average of the high and low) outdoor temperatures recorded for a location to a standard temperature (i.e., 65°F).
For example, if the average temperature for a day is 80°F, the day has 15 Cooling Degree Days (80 – 65 = 15). Degree days are used in the State’s Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards to help design the energy demand needed for heating and cooling in the various climate zones throughout the state. To illustrate how climate change is likely to affect energy demand for heating and cooling in the future, Table 7 includes the relative shift in Cooling Degree Days and Heating Degree Days in the City through 2099.
Table 7 Summary of Potential Heat Impacts by Impact Area through 2099 Impact Area Impact Type Threshold Criterion Historic
(1961–1990)
Near Term
(2021–2050)
Midterm
(2040–2070)
Medium
Emissions
Long Term
(2070–2099)
High
Emissions
Long Term
(2070–2099)
Threshold Source
Built
Environment
impacts
Roadways and
pavement
7 consecutive days
above 108°F 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.5 DOT 2014
Rail buckling
Days per year with
maximum
temperature of 111°F
0 2 3 3 9 OFCM 2002
Bridges and bus
operations Days above 100°F 15 35 44 24 67
Zimmerman 1996,
Cambridge
Systematics 2015
Building Energy
Use
Percent increase in
Cooling Degree Days n/a 49% 48% 46% 74% CEC 2021b
Percent increase in
Heating Degree Days n/a -25% -44% -50% -81% CEC 2021b
Vulnerable
Population
impacts
Heat wave events 4-day period above
103.6°F 0.2 1.4 2.5 2.6 5.4 CEC 2021b
Heat wave
duration
Consecutive days
above 103.6°F 2.5 6.3 6.9 8.5 14.2 CEC 2021b
Heat Health
Events (HHE)
Range of potential
HHEs per year n/a 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.8 CEC 2018a
Note: NA = not available.
Source: See sources in “Threshold Source” column of table.
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Near Term (2021–2050)
As shown in Table 7, during the near-term period, extended periods (7 consecutive days) of temperatures reaching above 108° would be unlikely; therefore, there would not be widespread impacts from pavement deterioration in the City. The City has experienced buckling of sidewalks due to extreme heat conditions, prompting repairs to avoid tripping hazards. As extreme heat continues to increase in severity and frequency in the future, this impact is likely to increase as well. Increased risk to rail from extreme heat days will increase slightly, with only 3 days over 111°F.
However, there will be continued increases in risk from thermal expansion of bridges, with increases in days above 100°F from 15 historically to 44 during this period. An increase in the number of days above 100°F will also place increased stress on buses and their air conditioning systems, as well as result in potential declines in bus ridership because of the discomfort. During this period, the number of Cooling Degree Days will increase approximately 49 percent increase over historic levels, placing more demand on the electricity grid during heat wave events and increase electricity bills for residents. Conversely, the number of Heating Degree Days will decrease by approximately 25 percent and reduce energy demand for heating, resulting in cost savings for residents and businesses cooler months during those months. City staff have noted that extreme heat events have already begun to affect the homeless population in the City, prompting the need for cooling center to house the City’s homeless population and other vulnerable populations. As extreme heat events continue to increase in frequency and severity, these impacts are likely to become more pronounced and demand for cooling centers as well as emergency services will increase.
During the near-term period, the City will also experience approximately 2.9 HHEs per year, with increased risk to populations particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, as discussed above. The frequency of extreme heat events will increase to 1.4 on average per year with the maximum duration of events increasing to 6.3 days during this period.
These events will increase the risk of public health impacts on vulnerable populations and could result in increased burden on low-income residents because of the increased energy demand for cooling (Calkins et al. 2016).
Midterm (2040–2070)
During the midterm period, there would likely not be any extended periods (7 consecutive days) above 108°F during this period; therefore, there would not be widespread impacts from pavement deterioration in the City. Increased risk to rail from extreme heat days will be relatively minor, with only 2 days over 111°F. However, there will be noticeable increases in risk from thermal expansion of bridges, with increases in days above 100°F from 15 historically to 35 during this period. An increase in the number of days above 100°F will also place increased stress on buses and their air conditioning systems, as well as result in potential declines in bus ridership because of the discomfort. During this period, the number of Cooling Degree Days will increase approximately 49 percent increase over historic levels, placing more demand on the electricity grid during heat wave events and increase electricity bills for residents. Conversely, the number of Heating Degree Days will decrease by approximately 44 percent over historic levels and reduce energy demand for heating, resulting in cost savings for residents and businesses cooler months during those months.
During the near-term period, the City will also experience approximately 3.9 HHEs per year, with increased risk to populations particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. The frequency of extreme heat events will continue to increase to
2.5 on average per year with the maximum duration of events increasing to 6.9 days. These events will increase the risk of public health impacts on vulnerable populations and continue to disproportionately burden low-income residents because of the increased energy demand for cooling (Calkins et al. 2016).
Long Term (2070–2099)
During the long-term period, increases in the duration and frequency of heat wave events will place increased stress on transportation assets and could result in subsequent impacts on community functions. By this period, under the High Emissions scenario, there would be an average of 0.5 events per year with extended periods (7 consecutive days) above 108°F. There would be only 0.1 events per year under the Low Emissions scenario for this period. As discussed in Section 2.4.1, these events will result in much larger impacts on the performance of pavements in the City. Extensive rutting could occur, particularly on high-volume roadways, including Folsom Boulevard, Sunrise Boulevard, and International Drive, as well as on Caltrans facilities (i.e., SR-50).
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During this period, there would be significant risk to rail infrastructure from extreme heat days, with approximately 9 days over 111°F per year under the High Emissions scenario, likely affecting Regional Transit light rail service when these events do occur. Risk of impacts on bridges from thermal expansion will also increase considerably, with the number of days above 100°F per year increasing from 12 historically to 24 under the Low Emissions scenario and 67 days under the High Emissions scenario. During the long-term period, the City will experience between 4.2 and 4.8 HHEs depending on future emissions, with increased risk to vulnerable populations. The increased frequency of HHEs will likely place increased demand on emergency services and emergency care facilities and could result in economic consequences from impacts on public health and work productivity (Paterson et al. 2014). The frequency and duration of heat wave events will increase considerably during this period, with the maximum duration of events increasing to 14.2 days under the high emissions scenario. These events will increase public health impacts on vulnerable populations, with increased levels of risk for elderly and youth populations, as well as individuals with chronic health conditions (Voelkel et al. 2018).
By the end of the century, the number of Cooling Degree days will increase approximately 74 precent, under the high emissions scenario, resulting in more than 3 months of the year requiring increased energy demand for cooling. By this period, the number of Heating Degree Days will decrease by approximately 81 percent under the High Emissions scenario by 2099. Increases in energy demand for cooling during this period will also have larger impacts on the electricity grid, with increased stress on and risks to electricity generation facilities and transmission lines (DOE 2016).
Potential Impact Score
Based on this analysis, the potential impact score for Temperature and Extreme Heat is High.
2.3 PRECIPITATION AND FLOODING ANALYSIS
Existing and Future Flooding Conditions
Scientists, engineers, and planners all use a specific system to measure and plan for certain sizes of storm events and flood impacts associated with these events. These events are measured by the probability that they are likely to occur in a given year. The phrase “100-year storm,” for example, refers to a storm event with a 1-in-100 or one percent chance of occurring in any given year. The size and other aspects of these storms are identified to characterize the nature of the events based on historic data. The metrics are then used to plan and design stormwater management systems that can cope with storm events of these sizes. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses certain larger storm events (i.e., 100-, 500-year storms) to identify flood hazard areas in the United States. FEMA administers flood insurance based on location and extent of impacts from these storm events, which influences land use patterns and development in cities. The following metrics are used in this analysis to discuss storm events and are included in projections from the Cal-Adapt tool:
Intensity—The amount of rainfall that occurs over a certain period (e.g., 1 hour, 24 hours, 5 days) during storm events of different sizes (e.g., 100-year storm event, 2-year storm event) Duration—The longest stretch of consecutive days during a water year (October through September) with rainfall above a certain threshold
Count—The number of days during a water year (October through September) with rainfall over a certain period (e.g., 1 hour, 24 hours, 5 days) above a certain threshold Timing—The timing during the year in which rainfall events exceeding a certain threshold occur The City’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP), which was developed as an annex to the Sacramento County Local Hazard Mitigation Plan which is currently being updated with the public draft of the document available, includes summary of the existing natural and manmade hazards affecting the City have been analyzed to assess current risks levels for each hazard (Sacramento County 2021). The LHMP provides details on the planning process, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies for the City to address specific hazards including large flooding events and flood related hazards.
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Historically, flooding from large storm events is a significant problem in the County and the City. Historically, the City has been at risk to flooding primarily during the winter and spring months when river systems in the County swell with heavy rainfall and snowmelt runoff. The City also experiences flooding challenges in the Morrison Creek watershed as well as obstructions to peak storm flow management with the Folsom South Canal which runs north- south through the City.
Storm floodwaters are typically managed by the City’s stormwater management system, which is able to collect and divert stormwater runoff from smaller storm events. However, extended heavy rains result in floodwaters that exceed normal high-water boundaries and cause damage. Major surface waters in the vicinity of the City include the American River, Folsom Reservoir, and Lake Natomas to the north. Other surface waters within the City include the Folsom South Canal, Cordova Creek, Deer Creek, and the Morrison Creek Stream Group (Morrison, Laguna, Elder, Gerber, Unionhouse, Florin, Buffalo, and Frye Creek, as well as Rebel Hill Ditch) which generally flow in a southwesterly direction southeast of the City. The topography within the City includes gently rolling terrain, such as that found in the eastern Great Central Valley interrupted by numerous seasonal creeks and streams. These creeks and streams are largely ephemeral and intermittent, which is typical of areas that experience dry summers and cool, wet winters, as in this part of the Central Valley.
The County and City have a large number of large-scale flooding events resulting in Federal and State disaster declarations. Table 8 includes a list of state and federal disaster declarations for the County since 1950.
Table 8 Changes in Average Annual Precipitation and 5-Year Storm Event in Sacramento County Type of Hazard Event
Federal Declarations State Declarations
Count Years Count Years
Flood (including
heavy rains and
storms)
19 1950, 1955, 1958 (twice), 1963,
1969, 1982 (twice), 1983, 1986,
1995 (twice), 1996, 1997, 1998,
2008, 2017 (three times)
14 1955, 1958, 1964, 1969, 1983,
1986, 1995 (twice), 1997, 1998,
2006, 2017 (three times)
Source: Sacramento County 2021.
As shown in Figure 6, small portions of the City are located within the FEMA floodplains for the 100- and 500-year storm events. Figure 6 also includes areas within the 200-year flood zone which were mapped as part of the City’s GP updated process and used to comply with the requirements of Senate Bill (SB) 5, which requires cities in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley area to assess risk-levels and provide increased flood protection for properties in the 200-year floodplain. As shown in Figure 6, the northern boundary of the City is located along the American River, with this area of the City at the highest risk from flooding.
Based on information in the City’s LHMP, there are 58 properties located in the 100-year flood zone valued at a total of $21.6 million. As part SB 5, jurisdictions in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley are required to identify properties located in the the 100- and 200-year floodplains and implement development standards that prohibit new development in the 200-year floodplain unless the property achieves an Urban Level of Flood Protection (ULOP), defined in SB 5. To satisfy the requirements of ULOP, the City has developed a 200-yr floodplain map based on the proposed Folsom Dam improvements by the US Army Corps of Engineers. These improvements include the Joint Federal Project to improve the dam spillway and the future dam raise to increase flood storage. In conjunction with the new 200-yr map, the City has made changes to its General Plan and zoning code that will guide development within the 200-yr ULOP.
As illustrated in Figure 6, the 500-year floodplain also impacts the northern portions of the City along the American River with118 residential parcels located within this zone. The City has one critical facility located in the 100-year flood zone, six critical facilities in the 200-year flood zone, and 5 critical facilities in the 500-year flood zone. While portions of the City are within the 100- and 500-year flood zones, there have been no historical insurance claims for flood losses in the City (Sacramento County 2021).
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Source: Sacramento County 2021 and data provided by City of Rancho Cordova staff.
Figure 6 Flood Zones and Critical Facilities in the City of Rancho Cordova ITEM 11.2.
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As shown in Table 9, there are several areas in the City with various land uses in the 100- and 500-year flood zone. As discussed above, the presence of the Laguna West Levee System near the Laguna West neighborhood is protecting 2,073 parcels from the 100-year flood event. Parcels located in the 100-year flood zone are located in flood zone areas surrounding Laguna Creek and Deer Creek. Alongside an analysis of land uses at risk of flooding, the City’s LHMP also analyzed the number of essential service facilities, and at-risk populations that are located within the 100- and 500-year flood zones. Table 9 summarizes the number and type of critical facilities located within the 100- and 500-year flood zones.
Table 9 City of Rancho Cordova Properties by Land Use in FEMA Flood Zones Land Use 100-Year Flood Zone 500-Year Flood Zone
Residential 19 1,118
Retail/Commercial 0 3
Office 0 2
Industrial 0 0
Care/Health 0 0
Church/Welfare 0 2
Recreational 1 0
Miscellaneous 35 11
Public/Utilities 0 2
Vacant 3 2
Total 58 1,145
Note: FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Source: Sacramento County 2021.
Future Changes in Precipitation Patterns and Flooding
As discussed in the Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Report, changes in precipitation patterns in northern California are anticipated to affect the Sacramento Valley region as well as adjacent regional watersheds which affect the Sacramento Valley (OPR et al. 2018). Projected shifts include increases in the intensity of large storms events, which could compromise the performance of the Sacramento Valley and Central Valley flood management systems (Pierce et al. 2018). Based on California’s location next to the Pacific Ocean, the state is exposed to the atmospheric river phenomenon, a narrow corridor of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. California is subject to precipitation from an atmospheric river that transports water vapor from as far south as Hawaii to the state. The presence of the atmospheric river contributes to the frequency of “wet years” in the state, when there is an above- average number of atmospheric river storms and above-average annual precipitation. While research indicates that the frequency of large storms events does increase in these wet years, the most severe flooding from atmospheric rivers may not be in wet years (Swain et al. 2018). The largest flooding impacts are caused by persistent storm sequences on sub-seasonal timescales (i.e., short time periods, typically 2 weeks to 3 months), which bring a significant fraction of annual average precipitation over a brief period. These are storms events similar to the Great Flood events of 1861–1862 which caused widespread damage throughout northern California (Swain et al. 2016).
Based on current climate modeling, the frequency of these large storm sequences over short timeframes is projected to increase noticeably under the High Emissions scenario. It is estimated that a storm similar in magnitude to the Great Flood events is more likely than not to occur at least once between 2018 and 2060 (Swain et al. 2018). A storm of this size would likely compromise large portions of the flood control systems in the Sacramento and the Central Valleys (Swain et al. 2018).
Regional changes in precipitation over the century will subsequently result in local changes in both annual precipitation and changes in the characteristics of storm events in the City and the County more broadly. Table 10 includes the projected precipitation changes in the County through 2099. The precipitation changes included in Table 10 are illustrated in Figure 7.
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Table 10 Sacramento County Precipitation Change (Historic to 2099) Geographic Area Historic
(1961–1990)
Change in Annual Mean Precipitation (Inches)
Near Term
(2021–2050)
Midterm
(2040–2070)
Late-Century
Medium Emissions
(2070–2099)
High Emissions (
2070–2099)
Sacramento County 18.3 20.1 20.2 20.3 22.1
Percent Change from Historic Period NA 10% 10% 11% 21%
Note: NA = not available.
Source: CEC 2021a.
As shown in Table 10, annual precipitation in the County is estimated to increase between 11 and 21 percent by 2099 under the medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively. As noted in the Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Report, although annual precipitation is anticipated to increase in the region, California’s climate oscillates between extremely dry and extremely wet periods with annual precipitation varying widely from year to year.
Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these seasonal extremes with dry periods becoming dryer and wet periods becoming wetter (OPR et al. 2018). As a result, the frequency and severity of large storm events are anticipated to increase as well. These oscillations between extremely dry and extremely wet periods, which have occurred historically in the state, are anticipated to become more severe with rapid shifts from dry to wet periods known as “whiplash events” (Swain et al. 2016). As Swain et al. note in their research, the recent 2012–2016 drought followed by the 2016–2017 flood events throughout the state serve as a good example of the type of whiplash events that will occur more frequently over the next century. These types of events are estimated to increase by approximately 25 percent in northern California, with increases in frequency occurring largely after 2050 (Swain et al. 2016).
Although annual precipitation is anticipated to increase in the City over the coming decades, the majority of the increase in precipitation is likely to occur during extreme precipitation events (Swain et al. 2018). As a result, it is important to understand how these shifts in extreme precipitation events will affect the City and regional watersheds which affect the stormwater management system and larger waterways within the City, though they begin outside the City boundaries. The Cal-Adapt Extreme Precipitation Event tool provides information on how the characteristics of extreme precipitation events will change over the century, including the ability to analyze changes at the watershed level.
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Near-Term (2021 – 2050) Midterm (2040 – 2070)
Medium Emissions - Long Term (2070 – 2099) High Emissions - Long Term (2070 – 2099)
Source: Data downloaded from CEC and DWR in 2021.
Figure 7 Sacramento County Annual Average Precipitation through 2099 ITEM 11.2.
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The characteristics of extreme precipitation events are what are most commonly used to model and design urban stormwater management systems to ensure the system can withstand the rainfall and stormwater runoff that occurs during these events. For the purpose of this analysis, the specific storm events chosen are consistent with three size storm events used to design the City’s stormwater management system and are included in the Sacramento County Drainage Manual. These include the 2-, 10-, and 100-year storm events for rainfall over a 24-hour period. Table 11 summarize the changes in amount of rainfall projected to occur in American River watershed, the main watershed affecting the City for the 2-, 10-, and 100-year storm events through 2099 under the high emissions scenario.
Table 11 Changes in Rainfall During Extreme Precipitation Events Watershed Storm
Event Size
Historic
(1961–1990)
Change in 24-Hour Rainfall Period (Inches) for 100-Year Storm Event Midterm (2035–
2064)
Percent Change
(Historic to 2064)
Long-term (2070–
2099)
Percent Change
(Historic to 2099)
American
River
Watershed
100 7.1 4.8 -32% 6.3 -11%
10 3.5 2.9 -17% 3.5 0%
2 2.1 2.0 4% 2.3 9%
Notes: This table shows estimated intensity (Return Level) of Extreme Precipitation events, which are exceeded on average once every 2, 10, and 100 years (Return Period). Extreme Precipitation events, defined here, are days during a water year (October through September) with 1-day rainfall totals above an extreme threshold set for each of the watersheds, which is based on the lowest annual maximum storm intensity in historic records.
Source: CEC 2021a.
As shown in Table 11, by midcentury, the American River watershed is projected to experience decreases in rainfall during the 100- and 10-year storm event and a slight increase in the 2-year storm event. By late century, the watershed will experience an 11 percent decrease in the intensity of the 100-year storm event, no change in the 10- year storm event, and a more nine percent increase in the 2-year storm events. Climate change is also projected to increase frequency and maximum duration of larger precipitation events. For the American River watershed, there is projected to be slight increase in number of larger precipitation events from five events historically by the late- century period. The maximum durations of these events will also increase from two days historically to 2.3 days by the late-century period.
Future Flood Impacts
Stormwater Drainage System
In current practice, the stormwater management systems in urban areas are modeled to manage large storm events based on characteristics of rainfall specific to the region from observed historical data. These characteristics in the intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) of extreme precipitation events. These characteristics are described using IDF curves which are used to design various components of urban drainage systems including pipes, culverts, waterway channels, and detention ponds. Because climate change is anticipated to shift precipitation patterns during storm events, these changes could impact the performance of urban stormwater management systems (CEC 2018b).
Increases or changes in the IDF curve can impact the integrity of stormwater infrastructure, particularly natural and engineered slopes such as levees (CEC 2018b). Based on current design standards, the City’s drainage system has been designed based on the 2-, 10-, and 100-year storm events. Consistent with these standards, the primary sensitivity threshold for this precipitation and flooding impacts is the exceedance of the historic intensities of the 2-, 10-, and 100-year storm event for the 24-hour period. This threshold is developed from the understanding that the City’s current stormwater management and flood protection system is designed based on historic observations for the size of flood events. If these historic storm intensities are exceeded, this would likely begin to disrupt, deteriorate, damage, or generally affect the performance of the City’s stormwater management and flood protection systems (CEC 2018b). The analysis also considers the magnitude of the increase above the historic storm levels in the severity of the impacts that may occur.
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Based on projections included in the Table 11 above, the City is not projected to experience larger increase in the size of these storm events and, therefore, not likely experience widespread flooding impacts from frequent but smaller storm events in the future. The small increases in the frequency and maximum duration of storm events are also not likely to have an impact on the City’s stormwater management system.
Large Storm Events and Flood Protection
For this analysis the FEMA floodplain for the 100-year storm event is used as the sensitivity threshold for large storm events. Specifically, for future scenarios in which the intensity of the 100-year storm events is exceeded, parcels and roadways within these floodplains are seen to be at increased risk from large storm events. Based on information in Table 11, the City is not projected to experience increases in the intensity of the 100-year storm event and, therefore would likely not experience widespread flooding impacts from less frequent but larger storm events based on the Cal-Adapt data. However, as discussed above, California does experiment Atmospheric River events The presence of that contribute to the frequency of “wet years” in the state. While research indicates that the frequency of large storms events does increase in these wet years, the largest flooding impacts are caused by persistent storm sequences on sub-seasonal timescales (i.e., short time periods, typically 2 weeks to 3 months), which bring a significant fraction of annual average precipitation over a brief period (Swain et al. 2018). As noted in the Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Report, climate change is projected to increase the intensity of “wet years” when they do occur and would likely have significant impacts on the County as well as the City.
Levee System Impacts
Increases in precipitation and particularly in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitations due to climate change will have impacts on the integrity of levee systems (Jasim et al. 2017). Shifts in the IDF curve, particularly during multi-day events, can increase the risk of levee failure. A study which modeled the impacts of projected changes in IDF curves on the Elkhorn Levee in the County found that the probability of levee failure could increase between 3 and 12 percent during projected extreme precipitation events under the high emissions scenario when compared to the baseline scenario. Levee systems, particularly systems not maintained through the Federally protected levee system, are subject to other factors which can comprise their structural integrity including land subsidence and climatic conditions, which will be exacerbated by climate change (Jasim et al. 2017). The combination of land subsidence and specific climatic conditions including drought and severe flooding can further threaten the structural integrity of these aging levees (Robinson and Vahedifard 2016). There are currently two levees in the City which protect residential neighborhoods: Cordova Meadows Levee and Sunriver Levee. Based on the research referenced above, these levee systems will be at increased risk of failure due to increasingly intense storm events as well as increases in the frequency of these events.
Potential Impact Score
Based on this analysis, the potential impact score for Precipitation and Flooding is High.
2.4 DROUGHT AND WATER SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Existing and Future Drought Conditions
Long-term drought can have environmental, agricultural, health, economic, and social consequences. The County, along with larger areas of California, experiences periods of long-term drought that stress the ecosystem and water supplies; and subsequently, impact agriculture, public health, and the economy. The City relies on regional water supplies with the three primary water purveyors providing services within the City’s planning area: Sacramento County Water Agency; Golden State Water Company; and California-American Water Company. The City’s water supply is currently provided by a combination of ground and surface water resources. As discussed in the Natural Resources Chapter of the City’s General Plan, future water supplies will be provided from a variety of sources, including: water from the Central Valley Project; appropriate water supplies; water transfer supplies; groundwater; ITEM 11.2.
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recycled water; surface water from the American River; SMUD transfer water; and Aerojet replacement water due contamination of the portion of the City’s groundwater resources (City of Rancho Cordova 2006).
As noted in Appendix C – Water Supply Evaluation of the City’s General Plan (City of Rancho Cordova 2006), it is likely that adequate water supplies would be available to meet the City’s water demands associated with buildout of its current corporate limits. However, based on total known future supplies there would be a supply shortfall of approximately 51,089 acre feet per year to meet the City’s total planning area demands. This shortfall would occur if development exceeded the total amount associated with buildout of the City’s corporate boundaries. If water supplies are not available to meet buildout water demands, the City would either need to stop approving new growth within its jurisdiction, or collaborate with regional water purveyors to investigate potential future water supply options within the context of the regional water supply planning environment (City of Rancho Cordova 2006). Additionally, the Water Supply Evaluation conducted as part of the City’s General Plan does not consider future changes in water supply due to climate change. This analysis does not include a comprehensive assessment of the City’s water demand and available supply but rather focuses on how future changes in precipitation, temperature, and drought conditions in the County are likely to affect the City overall.
Future Changes in Precipitation Patterns and Flooding
The City and larger Sacramento region are expected to experience slight overall increases in average annual precipitation in the long-term. However, projections show the Sacramento region will experience increased variability and volatility in precipitation events, such as droughts. California has a highly variable climate that is susceptible to prolonged periods of drought, and recent research suggests that extended drought occurrence (a “mega-drought”) could become more pervasive in future decades (CEC 2021c). As discussed above in Section 2.3, precipitation patterns in California oscillate between extremely dry and wet periods. Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate these seasonal extremes with dry periods becoming dryer and wet periods becoming wetter (OPR et al. 2018). With the increased severity of oscillation between wet and dry periods and precipitation occurring over more intense but shorter periods in the year, this will reduce opportunities for groundwater recharge which ideally occurs during prolonged wet periods allowing for soil infiltration, deeper percolation, and the resulting groundwater recharge.
While a unique long-term drought scenario would likely affect the City’s overall water supply management practices, there is the potential for there still to be above average wet years within a long-term drought, as shown in Figure 8.
These above average wet years have the potential to replenish water supplies in the City’s reservoirs and help mitigate the impacts of long-term drought.
A substantial portion of the water resources supplied to the Sacramento region originates as rainfall and runoff from snowpack in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the surrounding foothills. Cal-Adapt uses data to model an extended drought scenario for all of California from 2051 to 2070. For this analysis, the extended drought scenario for El Dorado County rather than just the boundaries of the City, with tributaries in El Dorado County (i.e., the north fork and south fork of the American River) providing key water resources (e.g., Folsom Lake) to the Sacramento region.
Due to increases in climate variability and rising temperatures, the state has already seen signs of decreased snowmelt in Northern California. Annual snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is expected to decline by as much as 33 percent by mid-century and 66 percent by the end of the century, relative to historic baseline snowpack (OPR et al. 2018). Further, rising temperatures have caused snowpack to melt faster and earlier in the year. These changes in snowmelt timing and streamflow availability will challenge local and regional water supply availability (OPR et al. 2018). Inadequate rainfall and reduced snowpack will result in decreased runoff to the reservoirs that supply water to the City, which will lead to less available water and more frequent water shortages.
As shown in Figure 8, El Dorado County’s observed historical (1961-1990) average annual precipitation accumulation (i.e., rainfall and snowpack runoff) is 43.6 inches. Under the anticipated drought scenario between 2051 and 2070, the County’s average annual rainfall accumulation would decrease to 37 inches (CEC 2021c), resulting in an approximately 15 percent decrease in annual average rainfall over a 20-year period.
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Figure 8 El Dorado County Long-Term Drought Scenario (2051-2070) Source: CEC 2021c.
Drought Impacts
In the event of a severe and sustained drought lasting multiple years, water supplies provided to the City could be severely affected and result in the need for increased water conservation efforts to be implemented by jurisdictions in the Sacramento region. City residents may be encouraged to reduce household water demand, which may limit certain activities such as landscape irrigation. Each water purveyor that provides water resources to the City has an Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), which includes a Drought Contingency Plan with specific actions to reduce overall water use by customers. The California Public Utilities Commission sets the rates and service terms for water utilities every three years after an exhaustive review, as required by state law. As a result, a long-term drought scenario would likely not result in rapid or unforeseen increases water costs for residents and businesses.
Droughts create cascading effects on community functions that may worsen in the future. The associated risks include adverse impacts on timber harvesting, reduction in native habitat and overall ecological function, increased forest fuels for wildfire, and economic consequences associated with decreases in tourism and recreation. More intense future droughts affecting the region could result in decreasing recreation opportunities on and surrounding Folsom Lake. Decreased recreation could have a direct impact on City business revenue from pass through visitors.
Increased episodes of drought and increased water demand could result in water shortages for the region, endangering residents and ecological systems (e.g., flood control or sensitive habitat, recreational areas). Drought, as slow-moving disaster, can affect mental health if occurring over many years (Vins et al. 2015). While increasingly frequent and prolonged droughts directly affect residents, the built environment will not experience substantial direct impacts associated with this climate-related hazard.
A lack of soil moisture during long-term droughts can increase dust particle concentration, which can include harmful fungal spores and viruses, including Valley Fever (coccidioidomycosis) (OPR et al. 2018). The California Department of Public Health has highlighted the Sacramento Valley as a high-risk area for valley fever (OPR et a. 2018). Valley fever is found in disturbed, dry soil particles that must be inhaled. Symptoms of Valley Fever include chest pain, exhaustion, fever, coughing, joint and muscle pain, and difficulty breathing. Certain populations including pregnant women, the elderly, African, and Filipino Americans are particularly vulnerable to the severe cases of the disease (Brown et al. 2013).
Potential Impact Score
Based on this analysis, the potential impact score for Drought and Water Supply is Medium.
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2.5 WILDFIRE ANALYSIS
Existing and Future Wildfire Conditions
Wildfire behavior is dependent on several factors that, when identified and assessed, can help determine future wildfire characteristics. The three factors listed below contribute significantly to wildfire behavior and can be used to identify wildfire hazard areas:
Topography: An area’s terrain and land slopes affect its susceptibility to wildfire spread. Both fire intensity and rate of spread increase as slope increases because heat from a fire tends to rise through convection. The arrangement of vegetation throughout a hillside can also contribute to increased fire activity on slopes. Fuel: Fuel is the material that feeds a fire and is a key factor in wildfire behavior. Fuel is generally classified by type and by volume. Fuel sources are diverse and can include dead tree leaves, twigs, and branches of dead, standing trees; live trees; brush; and cured grasses. Buildings and other structures, such as homes and other associated combustibles, are also considered a fuel source. Weather: Components such as temperature, relative humidity, wind, and occurrence of lightning affect the potential for wildfire. High temperatures and low relative humidity dry out fuels that feed wildfires, creating a situation where fuel will ignite more readily and burn more intensely. Thus, during periods of drought, the threat of wildfire increases. Wind is one of the most significant weather factors in the spread of wildfires. The greater a wind, the faster a fire will spread and the more intense it will be.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) maps areas of significant fire hazards based on fuels, terrain, weather, and other relevant factors. These zones, referred to as Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ), are represented as Very High, High, or Moderate. The classification of a zone as a Moderate, High, or Very High FHSZ is based on a combination of how a fire would behave and the probability that flames and embers would threaten buildings. Wildfire risk is also determined by several factors, such as wind speeds, drought conditions, available wildfire fuel (i.e., dry vegetation), past wildfire suppression activity, and expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI) (i.e., places in and around forests, grasslands, shrub lands, and other natural areas) (Westerling 2018). Impacts from grass and brushfires in the City could result in evacuations of portions of the City as well as loss of property and impacts to critical facilities.
Based on data included in the City’s LHMP Annex shown in Figure 9, large portions of the eastern and southern portions of the City are located in areas designated as Moderate FHSZ. Given the City’s location and urban setting, there is relatively low risk of impacts from wildfires relative to areas northeast of the City in El Dorado and Amador County; however, the City is at increased threat of grass and brushfires. Although the majority of the City’s developed areas are at lower fire risk, the City does include a few key areas with increase fires risk in undeveloped recreation areas along the American River. As a recreation area, there are limited roadways within these areas, making fire equipment access difficult. While threatened by fire risk along the American River, residents are also at risk from health impacts from poor air quality associated with wildfire smoke. Poor air quality can be generated in the City from wildfires occurring throughout northern California as has been experienced in recent years.
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Source: Sacramento County 2021 and data provided by City staff.
Figure 9 Fire Hazard Severity Zones and Critical Facilities in the City of Rancho Cordova ITEM 11.2.
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Future Wildfire Risk
Increased Wildfire Risk in the Sacramento Valley
Climate change effects, including increased temperatures and changes to precipitation patterns, will exacerbate many of the factors that contribute to wildfire risk. Increased variability in precipitation may lead to wetter winters and increased vegetative growth in the spring, and longer and hotter summer periods will lead to the drying of vegetative growth and ultimately result in a greater amount of fuel for fires. This has already been seen across the state in recent years, with the area burned by wildfires increasing in parallel with rising air temperatures (OEHHA 2018). These factors, combined with intense wind conditions, cause fires to spread rapidly and irregularly, making it difficult to predict fires’ paths and effectively deploy fire suppression forces.
Relative humidity is also an important fire-related weather factor; as humidity levels drop, the dry air causes vegetation moisture levels to decrease, which consequently increases the likelihood that plant material will ignite and burn. With an increase in hotter and drier landscapes, humidity levels may continue to drop and result in higher fuel levels, increasing the risk of wildfire (Schwartz et al., 2015).
Cal-Adapt provides projections for future annual mean hectares burned within the Sacramento Valley region, as defined in the California Fourth Assessment Report, when wildfires do occur. Because the City is not directly threatened by large-scale wildfires but is likely to be impacted by regional effects such as wildfire smoke, this analysis focuses on the Sacramento Valley region. As shown in Table 12, the total area burned annually by wildfire within the Sacramento Valley region is expected increase from the historic (1961-1990) annual average of 20,956 hectares to 23,942 hectares in the near-term and increase further in the midterm to 28,759 hectares. In the long-term, average annual area burned in the region is projected to increase to 31,670 hectares and to 41,784 hectares under the low and high emissions scenarios, respectively (CEC 2021e).
Table 12 Changes in Annual Average Area Burned in the Sacramento Valley Region Average Annual Area Burned
Historic
Modeled
(1961-1990)
Near-Term
(2021-2050)
Midterm
(2035-2064)
Long-Term (2070-2099)
Low Emissions High Emissions
Average Annual Area Burned (hectares) 20,956 23,942 28,759 31,670 41,784 Notes: Observed historical average annual area burned data was not available from Cal-Adapt; the modeled historical average annual area burned data under the low emissions scenario was available and used as proxy data.
Source: CEC 2021e.
Wildfire Impact Analysis
Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns associated with climate change will lead to reduced moisture content in vegetation and soils during dry years. These conditions are expected to increase the amount of area burned by wildfires that will occur predominantly outside of the City boundaries but may have secondary impacts on the City from wildfire smoke, disruptions to transportation behavior, or the increased prevalence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS).
Regional wildfires threaten energy generation and transmission infrastructure and have the capacity to damage facilities, create maintenance costs, and reduce transmission line efficiency (CAL FIRE 2020). Grid-supplied as well as locally generated electricity, which is the primary source of power for residences in the City, is provided by the Sacramento Municipal Utilities District (SMUD). Regional communications infrastructure can also be affected by wildfires, which is often located in remote locations, such as mountaintops, resulting in significant threat from wildfire.
Regional wildfires may also generate impacts on transportation behavior in the City during emergency evacuation events. This could include potential route diversion and increases in traffic congestion due to road closures from wildfire impacts or post-wildfire runoff or landslide affected roadways. While fire causes relatively insignificant direct impact on roads and highways, cracking and degradation of pavement is not uncommon.
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Although the City is not at a high risk from the direct impacts of wildfires, the City’s location within the Sacramento Valley makes it susceptible to impacts of smoke from wildfires in the Sierra Nevada mountains and the coastal mountain ranges of northern California. Community public health factors that can increase the impacts of wildfire smoke include the prevalence of asthma in children and adults; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; hypertension; diabetes; obesity; and percent of population 65 years of age and older. Additionally, socioeconomic characteristics such as poverty rates, educational achievement, and unemployment rates have all been linked to the increased prevalence of underlying health conditions including depression, obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, making populations in the City with these characteristics more vulnerable to wildfire smoke impacts (Kivimäki et al. 2020).
Exposure to wildfire smoke, particularly exposure by vulnerable populations, can result in worsening of respiratory symptoms, increased rates of cardiorespiratory emergency visits, hospitalizations, and even death (Rappold et al. 2017). Increased annual average temperatures and the subsequent increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires in northern California are anticipated to result in impacts from wildfire smoke on the City’s population and vulnerable populations in particular (OPR et al. 2018).
Specific populations including linguistically isolated households, senior citizens, and individuals with disabilities or those experiencing homelessness are particularly vulnerable during evacuation events, if wildfire evacuations were to occur in the City. Impacts affecting these populations include inability to access or receive and/or understand warning messages and evacuation notices, limited ability to evacuate due to lack of mobility, limited situational understanding from cognitive conditions, and reliance on medication or treatment devices. Wildfires in the larger Sacramento region can also result in secondary impacts affecting populations. A major consequence of wildfires is post-fire flooding and debris flow. The risk of floods and debris flows after fires increases due to vegetation loss and soil exposure. These flows are a risk to life because they can occur with little warning and can exert great force on objects in their path.
Public Safety Power Shutoffs
Due to a number of recent large-scale wildfires in Northern California caused by electricity infrastructure exposed to extreme heat and high-winds, utilities have begun to implement PSPS to avoid wildfire risk. PSPS events can result in communities experiencing no electricity for multiple days and prevent individuals from using prescribed medications and treatments that rely on electricity or refrigeration. PSPS events can also result in impacts to commerce and economic losses, particularly for businesses that rely on refrigeration such as grocery stores. Hazards such as landslides, wildfires, and flooding can also affect underground natural gas pipelines, exposing and/or damaging these pipelines. The damage resulting from climate change-related hazards on electricity and natural gas infrastructure can have a greater impact on disadvantaged populations, particularly communities that are low-income or individuals who have limited mobility or lack the financial means to make repairs to their property.
Major wildfires often result in the damage to transportation infrastructure and/or closure of roadways. Combined with reduced visibility from wildfire smoke, this leads to a disruption in normal transportation networks and accessibility. Congestion that starts during a mass evacuation can lead to additional traffic management problems, which can result in delays to emergency response, evacuation, and logistical support.
Potential Impact Score
Based on this analysis, the potential impact score for Wildfire is Medium.
2.6 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
This section analyzes the City’s current capacity to address and adapt projected increase in severity and frequency of climate-related hazards. The City and regional agencies have established plans, policies, and programs that address climate change impacts. These efforts, however, do not comprehensively identify strategies that will be taken by local and regional governments to address the full scope and magnitude of potential climate impacts. Climate change will increase the frequency and severity of climate-related hazards in the future, requiring updates to emergency response, land use planning, and strategic partnerships. A summary of the regional and local planning efforts to adapt to climate change and climate-related hazards are presented below.
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Existing State and Regional Planning Efforts
California Department of Transportation
The Climate Change Branch in the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) Division of Transportation Planning is responsible for overseeing the development, coordination, and implementation of climate change policies in all aspects of the Department’s decision making. In 2013, Caltrans completed its first report intended to help reduce GHG emissions and adapt the State’s transportation system to prepare for the impacts of climate change (Caltrans 2013), which includes a series of strategies to reduce the risk from various climate change impacts, including increasingly intense precipitation events.
Strategies outlined in the report include using vegetation to prevent erosion along roadways, assessing and resizing culverts to accommodate increased precipitation, coordinating with local jurisdictions regarding route closures as well as pursing individual projects included in the Caltrans District Vulnerability Assess ments. In 2019, Caltrans completed the District 3 Vulnerability Assessment which provides an overview of potential climate impacts to the district’s portion of the State Highway System. The District 3 Vulnerability Assessment is part of a larger adaptation process undertaken by Caltrans to assess risk to Caltrans assets in the district and prioritize adaptation strategies from various climate impacts. The District 3 Vulnerability Assessment includes projected climate change exposure from precipitation change, flooding, temperature change, wildfire, storm surge, and sea level rise.
Sacramento Area Council of Governments
The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) is the Metropolitan Planning Organization for the six -county Sacramento region including the 22 cities within El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba Counties.
SACOG develops the region’s long-range transportation plan which guides transportation and land use planning in the region. In 2015, SACOG adopted the Sacramento Region Transportation Climate Adaptation Plan to address how potential climate change impacts affect the region’s transportation infrastructure. The plan highlights key impacts from climate change that could occur on the Sacramento region’s transportation system in the future as well as a guiding action plan for future adaptation planning and implementation.
Sacramento County
The County completed a vulnerability assessment in 2015 that assessed the projected changes associated with climate change in the County (including the City of Rancho Cordova), including impacts from changes in precipitation patterns and increased flooding. The assessment highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of the County to climate change including projected increases in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme storm events as well as projected regional temperature increases leading to earlier and more rapid melting of the Sierra Nevada snowpack and subsequent increases in flow rate of surface waters in the County (Sacramento County 2021).
The County is currently working to conduct a study looking at current and future precipitation trends in the County under the influence of climate change. This work will inform an update to the County’s Drainage Manual better prepare for future changes in precipitation. The County Drainage Manual is used by incorporated cities in the County to design and build drainage and stormwater infrastructure and inform development standards.
Sacramento Public Department of Health Services
As a division of the Sacramento County Department of Health Services, Sacramento County Public Health works to promote, protect, and ensure conditions for optimal health and public safety for residents and communities in the County. As part of its work in helping prevent health impacts from extreme heat, Sacramento County Public Health conducts community education related to public health and emergency preparedness. It also has developed plans with the Sacramento Office of Emergency Services on wildfire smoke and response plans. Sacramento County Public Health has also begun to research the impacts of climate change using available tools specific to extreme heat and public health.
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Sacramento Office of Emergency Services
The Sacramento County Office of Emergency Services (Sacramento OES) provides support and resources for emergency preparedness through its Sacramento Ready Program and operates the county’s Emergency Alerts Notification System. Sacramento, Yolo, and Placer County residents can use the Citizen Opt-In portal to receive critical and time-sensitive alerts regarding flooding, levee failures, severe weather, disaster events, unexpected road closures, missing persons, and evacuations of buildings or neighborhoods in specific geographic locations.
Sacramento OES coordinates with police and fire departments in the incorporated cities in the county for emergency planning and responses purposes. In regard to heat-related events, Sacramento OES focuses on the immediate effects of events; near-term risks from these events, particularly fires, droughts, and air pollution. Sacramento OES also maintains the County’s Emergency Operation Plan, which includes protocols for emergency operations during extreme heat events. Sacramento OES also develops and updates planning documents, including the County’s Evacuation Plan, Emergency Operations Plan, Mass Care and Shelter Plan, and the County’s LHMP and Annexes including the City. The City’s Annex in the LHMP includes climate change as a hazard and discusses how climate change will impact other hazards in the City, rating the likelihood of occurrence high and vulnerability to climate change as high.
Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District
The Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District (SMFD) provides fire protection services, fire suppression, inspection, plan checking, emergency transportation and medical services, public education, advanced life support, and rescue services to the City as well as the unincorporated portions of the Planning Area and southern the County. SMFD encompasses approximately 417 square miles in the southern portion of the County and includes both urban and rural areas. SMFD is the largest district in the County and the seventh largest local fire agency in the State of California. SMFD has 42 fire stations with approximately 673 paid personnel on its staff. The District includes 39 engine companies, 5 truck companies, 12 medic transportation units, 8 historical fire apparatus, 5 crash/rescue units, and various watercraft response units. In the City’s General Plan Planning Area, SMFD currently has seven fire stations.
Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District The Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) is the agency responsible for monitoring air pollution in the Sacramento Valley Air Basin and for developing and administering programs to reduce air pollution levels below the health-based standards established by the State and Federal governments. SMAQMD is working to develop a UHI model to help identify sensitivities in the district to extreme heat and climate change, as well as develop and model the effects of mitigation strategies (e.g., green roofs, cool pavements). SMAQMD is also working to develop an update to the California Emissions Estimator Model and hopes to include an element to the tool that provides quantification of the benefits of climate adaptation strategies. The agency also works to provide funding from Assembly Bill 617 for the Clean Cars for All program, which provides increased access to electric vehicles for low-income residents. As part of the Plan development process, representatives from SMAQMD participated in the Heat Working Group and provided input on the development of this white paper.
Sacramento Municipal Utility District
SMUD is a publicly owned utility that provides electricity to the County and small portions of Placer County. In regard to climate change, SMUD has developed a sustainable communities program focusing on disadvantaged communities, as well as its Climate Readiness Assessment and Action Plan (SMUD 2016), which is intended to help the utility to adapt to and address climate change through community engagement, enterprise programs, capital projects, and operational initiatives. SMUD also works with the Sacramento Tree Foundation to operate the Sacramento Shade Program, which provides landscape assessments and free shade trees to SMUD customers. SMUD also operates Living Future Project Accelerator, which emphasizes sustainable commercial and residential building practices, and is beginning to work toward a land-based carbon storage program.
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Sacramento Tree Foundation
The Sacramento Tree Foundation is a nonprofit organization that empowers people to plant, protect, and learn about trees in the Sacramento region. The organization has several programs that support its mission and provide services to cities and residents in the Sacramento region:
Sacramento Shade Program – This program, in partnership with SMUD, provides free landscape assessments and up to 10 free shade trees that provide a host of benefits to the residents and the surrounding neighborhoods. The organization’s work with SMUD emphasi zes planting locations and tree varieties that reflect SMUD’s goals for carbon sequestration.
NeighborWoods Program – This program provides support to communities throughout the Sacramento region by offering expertise, training, tools, and advice to plant and protect trees in their neighborhoods. Urban Wood Rescue Program - This program works to preserve useful life of the trees by providing logging and milling services for trees which have reached the end of their life. This lumber is then sold, providing a second life for the trees while capturing carbon sequestered during their lifetime.
The organization also conducts community outreach campaigns, utilizing door to door canvassing and community meetings to promote the benefits of the urban forest.
Existing Local Planning Efforts
City of Rancho Cordova
In 2006, the City adopted its first General Plan. The General Plan includes a Safety Element which includes goals, policies, and actions to address a set of safety issues in the City including traffic hazards, airport safety, neighborhood policing, and flooding. The following list of Goals and corresponding policies in the Safety Element help address and mitigate impacts from climate-related hazards.
GOAL S.2: Reduce the possibility of a flooding or drainage issue causing loss of life or damage to property. Policy S.2.1: Support and encourage efforts to limit and reduce the potential for community flooding from the Cosumnes or American Rivers.
Policy S.2.2: Manage the risk of flooding by discouraging new development located in an area that is likely to flood.
Policy S.2.3: Discourage the creation of new parcels when the presence of easements, floodplain, marsh, or riparian habitat, and/or other features would leave insufficient land to build and operate structures. This policy shall not apply to open space lots specifically created for dedication to the City or another appropriate party for habitat protection, flood control, drainage, or wetland maintenance. Policy S.2.4: Ensure that adequate drainage exists for both existing and new development.
GOAL S.9: Reduce the probability of fire damage to all the City’s structures. Policy S.9.1: Cooperate with the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District (SMFD) to reduce fire hazards, assist in fire suppression, and ensure efficient emergency medical response. Policy S.9.2: Provide infill development with adequate off-site improvements to meet onsite fire flow requirements.
Policy S.9.3: Consider establishing mitigation fees to fund adequate fire protection and emergency medical response facilities, if such fees are critical and necessary to meet the facility funding needs of SMFD and existing methods of financing are inadequate.
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The City also has regulations within the Municipal Code, specifically, Chapter 23.716 “Landscaping,” that provides guidance for landscaping and tree planting requirements for new development in the City. Title 19, “Trees,” of the Municipal Code provides regulations regarding the preservation of public trees of local importance and mitigation of tree loss.
The City adopted their Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) in 2018. The EOP describes how the jurisdiction will manage and coordinate resources and personnel responding to emergency situations. It detailed information covering Emergency Operations Center procedures, documentation and reference and support information and includes response protocols for a comprehensive set of emergency situations including climate-related hazard events including flooding, wildland fire, and extreme heat. The document is continually evolving as the City grows with recommendations for improvement solicited and carefully considered for future revisions.
City of Rancho Cordova Public Works Department
The City’s Public Works Department supports important activities and functions within the City, which have an impact on UHI, including designing, constructing, operating, and maintaining the City’s road network and drainage systems.
The Public Works Department is also responsible for the maintenance of roadways in the City as well as the the City’s Capital Improvements Program, which includes developing, upgrading and implementing the City’s Capital Improvements Program 5-Year Plan – a list of improvement projects for various components of City operations.
City of Rancho Cordova Police Department
The Rancho Cordova Police Department is contracted through the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Department to provide patrol, traffic enforcement, investigations, and administrative services to the City. Portions of the General Plan Planning Area outside the current City limits are within the Sacramento County Sheriff Department’s jurisdictional boundaries.
Summary of Adaptive Capacity
Table 13 evaluates the specific climate change effects covered under each of the plans and reports discussed above.
As shown in Table 13, multiple planning efforts have been made to address the climate change-related impacts that are expected to impact the City. Mitigation and adaptation measures for hazards including flooding, storms and extreme weather events, and wildfires and severe wind have been relatively well documented in assessments prepared previously. Other climate change hazards including impacts on human health, drought and available water supply, extreme heat and heat waves, landslides, and sea-level rise are noted in various regional planning efforts. However, these efforts do not analyze regional climate change effects consistently while developing adaptation strategies. Most of the policies provided in existing plans are broad-based strategies to reduce risk from climate change. Thus, it is important to note that specific and targeted policies should be developed to address the resilience of the most vulnerable populations and assets in the City.
Table 13 Adaptive Capacity in Existing Plans and Reports Plan or Report
Climate Change Hazard
Extreme Heat
Events
Extreme Precipitation
and Flooding
Drought and Water
Supply Wildfires
Sacramento County LHMP Annex
City’s General Plan
California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment Sacramento Valley Regional Report
Caltrans Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment District 3 City Water Purveyor’s Urban Water Management Plans
City’s Emergency Operations Plan
Source: Data compiled by Ascent Environmental in 2021.
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Adaptive Capacity Scoring by Hazard
Based on a combination of the adaptation initiatives outlined in these documents and additional adaptive efforts that have been pursued, the City’s adaptive capacity for each climate change effect can be rated Low, Medium, or High.
High adaptive capacity indicates that sufficient measures are already in place to address the points of sensitivity and impacts associated with climate change, while a low rating indicates a community is unprepared and requires major changes to address hazards (CalOES 2020).
Increased Temperatures and Extreme Heat
Adaptive Capacity Rating: Low
The City does not generate its own electricity and may not be in a position to protect vulnerable populations from the impacts that will be caused by rising temperatures and a drastic increase in the number of extreme heat events.
As rising temperatures and extreme heat lead to more frequent electricity outages, the lack of backup power sources for residents and business will expose more residents to risk of health impacts associated with extreme heat. While the LHMP does include extreme heat as a hazard, relevant information is limited. Impacts associated with increases in temperatures and extreme heat events are the largest potential impact for the City. This means that although the City may be adequately prepared to address extreme heat events currently, the vulnerabilities faced by the City including impacts to youth, seniors, and homeless populations as well as impacts on energy demand and services are likely to exceed to City’s current capacity.
For these reasons, the adaptive capacity ranking for increased temperatures and extreme heat is Low.
Increased Wildfire Risk
Adaptive Capacity Rating: High
The County, State and regional agencies, and other partners are implementing a diverse array of policies and programs that address the design of structures, fire safety, community preparedness, and emergency response, decreasing the City’s overall vulnerability to the threat of wildfire. However, as the threat of wildfire increases both locally and regionally, the City, in coordination with federal, state, and local agencies, will need to continue to adapt to projected impacts from wildfire. While the City is at relatively low risk from direct wildfire impacts, the affects from regional wildfires on the City through secondary impacts such as wildfire smoke and regional transportation route disruptions will continue to affect the City. Because these impacts have been increasing in intensity and severity in recent years and are somewhat novel, the City will need to make moderate changes to expand its capacity to address these types of impacts.
For these reasons, the adaptive capacity associated with wildfire is high.
Increased Extreme Precipitation and Flooding
Adaptive Capacity Rating: Medium
The City has adequately assessed its flood risk through the LHMP and other planning documents. The City and stakeholders have developed, adopted, and enforced several policies and programs that will serve to mitigate impacts from increasingly frequent floods in the future. While the City’s populations and assets are not severely threatened by floods as identified in the LHMP, the City, the County and other regional and local agencies can continue to implement policies and programs that reduce the risks associated with significant flooding events. As noted in Section 2.3, the risk of a large-scale storm event similar to the Great Flood events of 1861–1862 is more likely than not occur at least once by 2060. This means that although the City is adequately prepared to address flooding events currently, an event such as this would result in widescale impacts on the City and potentially affect Folsom Dam.
Therefore, the adaptive capacity associated with increased extreme precipitation and flooding is medium.
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Drought and Water Supply
Adaptive Capacity Rating: Medium
The City understands that a reliable water supply is essential. Each water purveyors that provide water resource so the City have UWMPs and Drought Contingency Plans, which will assist in building resilience to future drought conditions. The City is still somewhat vulnerable to these climate-related hazards, particularly in terms of the economic and related impacts (irrigation of recreation fields, constraints on future housing development) of generally dryer conditions, interannual precipitation variability, and reduced snowpack. These climate change effects will pose risks to tourism-related businesses that rely on pass-by visitors to Folsom Lake and the surrounding recreation areas when long-term droughts do occur.
Based on the reasons stated above, the adaptive capacity ranking for drought, water supply, and reduced snowpack is medium.
2.7 VULNERABILITY SCORING
The City’s vulnerability to each identified climate change impact is assessed based on the magnitude of risk posed to populations and assets, and any existing measures in place to mitigate these impacts. Potential impacts and adaptive capacity are rated on a qualitative scale from Low to High based on guidance from the APG. A description of each qualitative rating for both factors is provided in Table 14.
Table 14 Potential Impact and Adaptive Capacity Scoring Score Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity
Low Impact is unlikely based on projected exposure; would result in minor consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
The population or asset lacks capability to manage climate impact; major changes would be required.
Medium Impact is somewhat likely based on projected exposure; would result in some consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
The population or asset has some capacity to manage
climate impact; some changes would be required.
High Impact is highly likely based on projected exposure; would result in substantial consequences to public health, safety, and/or other metrics of concern.
The population or asset has high capacity to manage climate impact; minimal to no changes are required.
Source: CalOES 2020
After rating potential impacts and adaptive capacity, an overall vulnerability score is determined for each climate change impact. This scoring can help the City understand which effects pose the greatest threats and should be prioritized in future planning efforts. Table 15 presents the rubric used to determine the overall vulnerability scores based on the ratings for potential impacts and adaptive capacity.
Table 15 Vulnerability Scoring
Vulnerability Score
Potential Impacts
High 3 4 5
Medium 2 3 4
Low 1 2 3
High Medium Low
Adaptive Capacity
Source: CalOES 2020.
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Vulnerability scoring for each climate change effect identified and evaluated in Sections 2.2 through 2.6 is included in Table 16 below. The table shows that increased temperatures and extreme heat is assigned a vulnerability rating of 5 and therefore should be a high priority for the City. Impacts from increased precipitation and flooding was scored as a 4 while drought and water supply risks was assigned a vulnerability score of 3. These climate change effects are likely to have significant impacts on the City’s populations, built environment, and community functions in the near- term, and although a variety of adaptive efforts related to both climate change effects are in place and underway, the magnitude of the risks posed by these hazards contributes to high vulnerability in the City. Increased wildfire risk is characterized as having a vulnerability rating of 2. This climate change effect will likely have lower priority impacts on the City and is currently being addressed adequately based on existing conditions, but additional adaptation and resilience planning will be required in the future to mitigate impacts and protect the City.
Table 16 Vulnerability Scoring Summary
Vulnerability Score
Climate Change Effect
Vulnerability Score
Adaptive Capacity Potential Impact Vulnerability
Temperature and Extreme Heat Low High 5
Precipitation and Flooding Medium High 4
Drought and Water Supply Medium Medium 3
Wildfire High Medium 2
Source: CalOES 2020; adapted by Ascent Environmental in 2021.
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3 REFERENCES
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Calkins, M. M., T. B. Isaksen, B. A. Stubbs, M. G. Yost, and R. A. Fenske. 2016. Impacts of Extreme Heat on Emergency Medical Service Calls in King County, Washington, 2007–2012: Relative Risk and Time Series Analyses of Basic and Advanced Life Support. Environmental Health.
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CDPH. See California Department of Public Health.
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CDC. See Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
CEC. See California Energy Commission.
CEC and CNRA. See California Energy Commission and California Natural Resources Agency.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2019. Protecting Vulnerable Groups from Extreme Heat [website].
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CNRA. See California Natural Resources Agency.
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Goosse, H., P. Y. Barriet, M. F. Loutre, and V. Zunz. 2010. Introduction to Climate Dynamics and Climate Modeling.
Centre de Recherche sur la Terre et le Climat Georges Lemaître-UCLouvain.
Harvey, J., A. Chong, and J. Roesler. 2000. Climate Regions for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design in California and Expected Effects on Performance. University of California, Berkeley. Prepared for California Department of Transportation.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. Available:
https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf. Accessed February 11, 2021. ———. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5 Degrees Celsius: An IPCC Special Report. Available:
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Kinney. 2004. Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate. Environmental Health Perspectives 112(15):1557–1563.
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55. Li, Q., L. Mills, and S. McNeil. 2011 (September 25). The Implications of Climate Change on Pavement Performance and Design. Submitted to the University of Delaware University Transportation Center.
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NOAA. See National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research. 2002. Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report. FCM-R18-2002.
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Ramin, B., and Svoboda, T. 2009. Health of the homeless and climate change. Journal of Urban Health, 86(4), 654- 664.
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Robinson, J. D., and F. Vahedifard. 2016. Weakening Mechanisms Imposed on California’s Levees under Multiyear Extreme Drought. Climatic Change 137(1–2):1–14.
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Appendix G
List of Potential Funding Options
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Climate Action & Adaptation Plan Page G-1
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
Sacramento Municipal
Utility District (SMUD)
Residential Rebates
SMUD provides residential rebates and special promotions for energy efficient appliances and products including induction cooktops/ranges, heat pump water heater upgrades, ENERGY STAR® clothes washers and refrigerators, smart thermostats, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) replacement with a heat pump, smart lighting starter kits, energy savings kits, power strips, LED bulbs, faucet aerators, showerheads, water conservation kits, smart sprinkler controllers, and drip irrigation retrofit kits. SMUD also offers residents a discounted electric rate to support EV charging, funding for home EV charging equipment and installation, and a managed EV charging program to support vehicle charging when demand is low.
Building Energy
Sector; Water Sector;
On-Road
Transportation Sector
Sacramento Municipal
Utility District (SMUD)
Business Rebates
SMUD provides business rebates for lighting, refrigeration, and heating or cooling (HVAC) systems through several different rebate programs, including a program specific to multifamily residential properties. It also provides electric vehicle (EV) programs for commercial vehicles and EV charging, an electric forklift incentive pilot program, and SMUD eFuelSM Services to assess, design, construct and maintain electric vehicle chargers for commercial customers interested in business/fleet electric vehicles and charging, workplace employee charging or multi-family tenant charging.
Building Energy
Sector; On-Road
Transportation
Sector; Off Road
Vehicles and
Equipment Sector
DOE Energy Efficiency
and Conservation
Block Grant (EECBG)
Program
Part of the DOE’s State and Community Energy Program (SCEP), the EECBG program provides formula grants to local governments to implement strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions, decrease total energy use, and improve energy efficiency. The funds will consist a two- year budget period for local governments. Rancho Cordova’s allocation is $138,900.
Building Energy
Sector
California Energy
Commission 1 Percent
Interest Rate Loans
The California Energy Commission offers 1 percent loans for local jurisdictions to conduct projects with proven energy savings at municipal facilities.
Building Energy
Sector
California Lending for
Energy and
Environmental Needs
(CLEEN)
This funding source, as a program of California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank, provides direct public financing to municipalities, universities, schools, and hospitals to help meet the state’s goals for GHG reductions, water conservation, and environmental preservation.
Building Energy
Sector
California Energy
Commission Electric
Program Investment
Charge Program (EPIC)
The EPIC program provides more than $130 million annually in grants to both public agencies and private entities for the development and deployment of renewable energy, clean electric building and transportation, energy resilience, and advanced grid technologies in to accelerate the transformation of the electricity sector.
Building Energy
Sector
GRID Alternatives
GRID Alternatives is a nonprofit organization that provides no-cost solar installations to low-income residents and provides assistance for communities in developing multifamily and community-scale solar installations. The organization also provides hands-on job training for volunteers interested in employment in the solar industry.
Building Energy
Sector
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Rancho Cordova
Page G-2 Climate Action & Adaptation Plan
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
California Department
of Community Services
and Development,
Low-Income
Weatherization
Program
Administered by the California Department of Community Services and Development, the Low-Income Weatherization Program provides low- income households with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and energy efficiency upgrades at no cost to residents. The program is designed with the primary goal of reducing GHG emissions by saving energy and generating clean renewable energy while reducing energy costs for low- income single-family households and multi-family affordable housing.
Building Energy
Sector
Building Initiative for
Low-Emissions
Development (BUILD)
Program
The CA Energy Commission’s Building Initiative for Low-Emissions Development (BUILD) Program is designed to provide technical assistance and incentives for new all-electric low-income residential buildings that reduce GHG emissions.
Building Energy
Sector
Federal Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA) of
2022
The IRA invests nearly $400 billion in Energy Security and Climate Change programs over the next ten years. This includes rebates and tax credits for energy efficiency, renewable energy, and clean vehicle purchases, as well as funding for clean power infrastructure and climate resiliency.
Building Energy
Sector
HUD Community
Development Block
Grant (CDBG) Program
The HUD CDBG Program supports community development activities to build stronger and more resilient communities. Activities may address needs such as infrastructure, economic development projects, public facilities installation, community centers, housing rehabilitation, public services, clearance/acquisition, microenterprise assistance, code enforcement, and homeowner assistance.
Building Energy
Sector
Federal Infrastructure
Investment and
Jobs Act, aka
Bipartisan
Infrastructure Law
(BIL) or “Building a
Better America”
The U.S. Department of Transportation announced the availability of nearly $3 billion in competitive grant funding for surface transportation projects that were included in the infrastructure law. The grants can fund projects too large or complex for traditional funding programs like multijurisdictional and multimodal projects. The BIL also invests in clean energy by modernizing the power grid, weatherize and upgrade homes, schools, and businesses to make them cleaner and more affordable, and in the creation of new programs to support the development of clean energy technology. It will also invest in broadband infrastructure development to provide access to reliable high-speed internet.
On-road
Transportation
Sector; Building
Energy Sector
Rebuilding American
Infrastructure with
Sustainability and
Equity (RAISE) Grants
The U.S. Department of Transportation is offering $1.5 billion in grant funding through the RAISE discretionary grant program. The program uses a merit-based process to select projects that will build and repair critical pieces of freight and passenger transportation networks.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Caltrans Active
Transportation
Planning Program
This program provides competitive planning grants for jurisdictions working on planning projects to increase the proportion of trips accomplished by biking and walking and reduce community-wide vehicle miles traveled.
On-road
Transportation Sector
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Rancho Cordova
Climate Action & Adaptation Plan Page G-3
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
Caltrans
Transportation
Planning Grant
Program
The Transportation Planning Grant Program provides competitive planning grants to help local jurisdictions in a variety of transportation planning efforts including development and implementation of regional transportation plans. The program also helps address multimodal transportation deficiencies with a focus on transit and support planning actions that advance climate adaptation efforts for local transportation systems.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Caltrans Clean
California Local Grant
Program
The Clean California Local Grant Program provides competitive grants to projects that beautify and improve local roads, parks, pathways, and transit centers. Cycle 2 of grants includes up to $100 million in funding.
On-road
Transportation
Sector; Natural and
Urban landscapes
California Clean
Vehicle Rebate Project
(CVRP)
This California Air Resources Board program provides rebates for the purchase or lease of a new, eligible zero-emission or plug-in hybrid vehicle. As of February 28, 2023, increased rebate amounts have been updated to $7,500 for battery electric and fuel cell electric vehicles and $6,500 for plug-in hybrid vehicles.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Strategic Growth
Council Affordable
Housing and
Sustainable
Communities Program
This program, administered by the California Department of Housing and Community Development, funds land use, housing, transportation, and land preservation projects that support infill and compact development and reduce GHG emissions. Funds are available in the form of loans and/or grants in two kinds of project areas: Transit- Oriented Development Project Areas and Integrated Connectivity Project Areas.
On-road
Transportation Sector
SB 2 Planning Grant
Program
This planning grant program provides financial and technical assistance to local governments to update planning documents and zoning ordinances, including general plans, community plans, specific plans, sustainable communities strategies, and local coastal programs, to streamline housing production. The program does not use a competitive process to award funds. All localities that meet the eligibility requirements outlined in the grant application receive funding.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Volkswagen (VW)
Environmental
Mitigation Trust
The VW Environmental Mitigation Trust provides about $423 million for California to mitigate the excess nitrogen oxide emissions by funding specified eligible actions focused mostly on “scrap and replace” projects for the heavy-duty sector, including on-road freight trucks, transit and shuttle buses, school buses, forklifts and port cargo handling equipment, commercial marine vessels, and freight switcher locomotives.
On-road
Transportation
Sector; Off-Road
Vehicles and
Equipment Sector
California Air
Resources Board Carl
Moyer Memorial Air
Quality Standards
Attainment Program
The Carl Moyer Program provides grant funds towards the replacement of old, high-polluting vehicles, engines, and equipment, with new technologies that are cleaner than required or earlier than required by rules and regulations. The Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District implements this program in the Sacramento region.
On-road
Transportation
Sector; Off-Road
Vehicles and
Equipment Sector
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Rancho Cordova
Page G-4 Climate Action & Adaptation Plan
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
CalRecycle Food
Waste Prevention and
Rescue Grant Program
The purpose of this competitive grant program is to reduce overall GHG emissions by establishing new or expanding existing food waste prevention projects (source reduction or food rescue for people) in California to reduce the amount of food being disposed of in landfills.
Solid Waste Sector
CalRecycle Local
Enforcement Agency
Grant Program
CalRecycle administers a non-competitive grant program to assist local enforcement agencies with their solid waste facilities permit and inspection program.
Solid Waste Sector
California Department
of Water Resources
Water Grant and
Loans
The California Department of Water Resources provides a number of grant and loan programs that support integrated watershed management. These funds can be used to address issues such as groundwater sustainability, drought, and water supply reliability.
Programs include the Small Communities Drought Relief Program, the Riverine Stewardship Program, Delta Levees Special Flood Control Projects Program, and the LandFlex Program.
Water Sector
CivicSpark Program
The CivicSpark Program supports sustainability-focused research, planning, and implementation projects throughout California by providing public agencies and other organizations with high-quality capacity-building support. This 11-month AmeriCorps program employs highly motivated emerging sustainability professionals.
Green Economy;
Public Participation &
Engagement
Regional Early Action
Planning (REAP)
REAP allows councils of governments and other regional entities to collaborate on projects that have a broader regional impact on housing.
The grant funding helps regional entities and governments facilitate local housing production that will assist local governments in meeting their Regional Housing Need Allocation.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Sustainable
Transportation Equity
Project (STEP)
STEP is a new transportation equity pilot that aims to address community residents’ transportation needs, increase access to key destinations, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by funding planning, clean transportation, and supporting projects.
STEP’s overarching purpose is to increase transportation equity in disadvantaged and low-income communities throughout California via two types of grants: Planning and Capacity Building Grants and Implementation Grants. Within these two grant types, CARB currently has up to $22 million available.
On-road
Transportation Sector
Infrastructure State
Revolving Fund (ISRF)
The California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank provides loans to local governments for infrastructure and economic development. ISRF has financed projects that are vital to communities throughout the state such as city and county street highway improvements, wastewater treatment plant construction and upgrades, and educational and cultural facilities.
On-road
Transportation
Sector; Buildings and
Energy sector; Water
and Wastewater
Sector; Solid Waste
Sector
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Rancho Cordova
Climate Action & Adaptation Plan Page G-5
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
CAL FIRE’s Grant
Programs
CAL FIRE provides a number of grant programs such as the wildfire prevention grant program, the business and workforce development through wood products and bioenergy program, the California forest improvement program, the forest health program, the forest health research program, forest legacy program, and the urban and community forestry program. Funding and application dates can be found on their website https://www.fire.ca.gov/grants/. .
Adaptation
OPR Regional
Resilience Planning
and Implementation
Grant Program (RRGP)
The ICARP Regional Resilience Planning and Implementation Grant Program (Regional Resilience Grant Program, or RRGP) will fund local public entities, California Native American Tribes, and Community-Based Organizations that are planning and implementing projects that advance climate resilience and respond to the greatest climate risks in their regions. Over multiple funding rounds, the RRGP will invest $125 million into regions advancing resilience and responding to their regions’ greatest climate risks through three major activities: capacity building, planning (including identifying climate resilience priorities), and project implementation.
The first grant cycle will invest $21.3 million. At least $12.5 million of that total will be for regions planning for climate adaptation and developing action plans that prioritize projects or actions addressing the greatest climate risks facing a region, particularly in the most vulnerable communities. Grants will be made available both competitively and on a formula basis. Application period begins in Spring 2023.
Adaptation
SGC Transformative
Climate Communities
(TCC)
The Transformative Climate Communities (TCC) Program funds development and infrastructure projects that achieve major environmental, health, and economic benefits in California’s most disadvantaged communities. More info here:
Transformative Climate
Communities: Community-led transformation for a sustainable California
All sectors
SGC Community
Assistance for Climate
Equity (CACE)
The SGC’s CACE Program provides technical assistance and capacity building services to help under-resourced communities foster successful climate projects. Within CACE, the Boost Program supports under- resourced local governments in building capacity, optimizing existing resources, strengthening community partnerships, and transforming their approach to address and fund climate activities.
All sectors
SGC Community
Resilience Centers
(CRC) Grants Program
SGC’s CRC program will fund new construction and upgrades of neighborhood-level resilience centers to provide shelter and resources during climate and other emergencies. The program will also fund year- round services and ongoing programming that build overall community resilience. More info here:
Community Resilience Centers Program:
Strengthening community resilience in neighborhoods across California Adaptation
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
Rancho Cordova
Page G-6 Climate Action & Adaptation Plan
List of Potential Funding Options for CAAP Implementation Funding Option Description Potential CAAP
Implementation
Climate Resilience
Districts Act (Senate
Bill 852)
Senate Bill 852 (Dodd, 2022) established the “Climate Resilience District”. This is a new public financing tool available to cities, counties, and special districts to undertake projects and programs to address climate change including wildfire, sea level rise, extreme heat and cold, drought, flooding, and related issues. The districts can be formed by one or public agencies and, once created, can raise revenue through tax increment funding, voter-approved supplemental property taxes, property benefit assessments, or fees.
Adaptation
CA Climate & Energy
Collaborative (CCEC)
Funding Resources
The CCEC provides several helpful resources to support funding for implementation of local climate and energy initiatives. These include a “How to Guide: Ways to Get Funded” resource that outlines both internal and external funding best practices (see
Ways to get Funded –
California Climate and Energy Collaborative (eecoordinator.info), as well as a regularly-updated list of current and upcoming funding opportunities with links (see Funding Resources – California Climate and Energy Collaborative (eecoordinator.info).
California Grants
Portal
The California Grants Portal (a project by the California State Library) is a one-stop destination to find all grants and loans offered on a competitive or first-come basis by California state agencies. See: Home - California Grants Portal
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 5
1 CityOfRanchoCordova.org
Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
and Initial Study/Negative Declaration
August 21, 2023
Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
and Initial Study/Negative Declaration
August 21, 2023
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
2 Agenda for this Item
Goals for Tonight
1. Update City Council on amendments made to the CAAP since the draft presentation on May 1, 2023
2. Present the Initial Study/Negative Declaration (IS/ND) for adoption
3. Present the Final Draft Climate Action and Adaptation Plan (CAAP) for adoption
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
3 Background and Context
June, 2020 Local Early Action Planning Grant Discussion and Housing Workshop • Council expressed interest, and staff applied for grant funding, to prepare a Climate Action Plan March 1, 2021 Climate Action Plan Scoping Discussion
• Council directed staff to move forward with a CEQA Qualified Climate Action and Adaptation Plan July 1, 2021 Contract executed with Ascent Environmental, Inc. • Ascent selected through RFP, contract executed, and CAAP preparation began April 12, 2023 Draft CAAP presented to the Planning Commission • Staff received comments from the Planning Commission on the Draft CAAP May 1, 2023 Draft CAAP presented to the City Council
• Staff received comments from the City Council on the Draft CAAP August 21, 2023 Goals for Tonight
• Present updates made in the Final Draft CAAP
• Consider adoption of the Final Draft CAAP
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
4 City Objectives for the CAAP
• Reduce city’s fair-share of climate change-causing emissions • Increase resilience to existing and future climate hazards • Establish City-wide strategy and guide future decision making • Include elements required for a “CEQA qualified” plan in order to:
• Streamline the environmental process for new
development
• Standardize actions to reduce emissions across new
development
• Support affordable housing production to meet market
demand
• Attract and secure grant funds for CAAP activities and synergistic city objectives
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
5 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
Passenger Cars,
Trucks, SUVs,
Motorcycles
(81%)
Heavy Duty
Trucks, Buses
(19%)
On-Road
Transportation - 62%Nonresidential
Building Energy - 18%
Residential
Building Energy - 14%
Solid Waste - 3% Other* - 3%
*Other includes offroad
vehicles and equipment,
water supply, wastewater
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
6 Future Emissions 2030 Target and 2045 Goal
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2019 2030 2045
Annual GHG Emissions (MTCO2e per year)
On-Road Transportation Nonresidential Building Energy Residential Building Energy Solid Waste Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment Wastewater Treatment Water Supply Reduction Target and Goal
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
7 Measures to Reduce GHG Emissions
• Achieve 2030 target of 36% below 2019 levels
• Make substantial progress toward 2045 goal (81% below 1990 levels) by reducing GHGs 67% below 2019 levels
• Primary focus on transportation and building energy
measures as well as solid waste
• Transportation 69% of all reductions in 2030
• Building Energy 17% of all reductions in 2030
• Solid Waste 11% of all reductions in 2030
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
8 Updates Made to the Final Draft CAAP
• City Fleet transition to EVs can begin in the near term and continue as leased vehicles are retired
• Transition of gas to electric appliances point-of-sale requirement removed and replaced with a point-of-replacement alternative • Inclusion of alternative fuels, including hydrogen, added to the transportation strategies
• Highlighting local amenities such as the American River included in the narratives
• Enumeration of supporting actions for ease of reference ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
9 CAAP Implementation
• Annual or biannual implementation plan along with
budget process considering:
• current progress
• availability of grant funding
• city priorities
• partnerships with outside agencies
• Monitoring report every 2 years
• GHG Inventory and CAAP update every 5 years
• Costs to implement
• Private market and macro-economic trends
• Policies and ordinances
• Federal, state and local grants
• City programs and incentives
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
10 Grant Opportunities
• Federal nearly $100 billion through IRA and IIJA & ongoing programs • Environmental Protection Agency
• Department of Energy
• United States Department of Agriculture
• Department of Housing and Urban Development
• Others
• State ~$1 billion through GGRF and 2021 State Climate budget • California Climate Investments
• Office of Planning and Research
• Strategic Growth Council
• California Air Resources Board
• Local
•S M U D
• Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
11 CEQA Initial Study/Negative Declaration
• An Initial Study (IS) analyzing potential environmental impacts was conducted for the project and a Negative Declaration (ND) prepared pursuant to CEQA requirements • The IS shows that there is no substantial evi dence, in light of the whole record before the agency, that the project may have a significant effect on the environment • IS/ND was released for a 30-day public review period on June 2, 2023 • Four letters were received by staff in respons e to the IS/ND during the public review period • In response to these comments, no changes that materially affect the analysis or conclusions were made, therefore no recirculation is required pursuant to CEQA Guidelines Section 15088.5
• None of the comments received affect the adequacy of the IS/ND to address the proposed project
• Staff recommends adoption of the IS/ND to meet CEQA requirements ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
12 Staff Recommendation and Next Steps
Staff Recommendation
1. Adopt the resolution to adopt the Initial Study/Negative Declaration
2. Adopt the resolution to adopt the Climate Action and Adaptation Plan Next Steps
• If adopted, staff will develop an implementa tion strategy and begin to apply for available grant opportunities
• Staff will return to the City Council as needed to receive direction on implementation of CAAP measures
• Monitoring Reports will be prepared every 2 years
• GHG Inventory and Plan Update will be conducted every 5 years d
Are there any additional questions for staff?
ITEM 11.2.
ATTACHMENT 6
MEMORANDUM
City Council Staff Report - Page 1 of 6
ITEM 11.3.
DATE: August 21, 2023
TO: Honorable Mayor and Council Members
FROM: Albert Stricker, Public Works Director
Dalia Fadl, Principal Engineer
SUBJECT: AN ORDINANCE ADDING CHAPTER 16.96 FLOODPLAIN
MANAGEMENT ORDINANCE; AND AMENDING TITLE 3 REVENUE
AND TAXATION, CHAPTER 3.60 PURCHASING SYSTEM, CHAPTER
3.70 INFORMAL BIDDING PROCEDURES; TITLE 6 HEALTH AND
SANITATION, CHAPTER 6.20 SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT,
CHAPTER 6.21 BUSINESS AND MULTIFAMILY RECYCLING AND
ORGANICS RECYCLING; TITLE 10 VEHICLES AND TRAFFIC; TITLE 12 STREETS AND SIDEWALKS; TITLE 15 WATER AND SEWERS,
CHAPTER 15.10 STORM DRAINAGE FEE, CHAPTER 15.12
STORMWATER MANAGEMENT AND DISCHARGE CONTROL; TITLE
16 BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTION, CHAPTER 16.44 LAND
GRADING AND EROSION CONTROL, CHAPTER 16.84
DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEES TO FINANCE THE COST OF
TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
RECOMMENDATION
Waive the first reading and introduce the Ordinance.
RESULT OF RECOMMENDED ACTION
Approval of the Ordinance would amend Title 3 Revenue and Taxation, Title 6 Health and Sanitation, Title 10 Vehicles and Traffic, Title 12 Streets and Sidewalks, Title 15 Water and Sewer, and Title 16 Building and Construction. The Ordinance would also adopt Chapter 16.96 Floodplain Management Ordinance, which will allow the City to continue participating in the National Flood Insurance Program as required by FEMA and the State Department of Water Resources.
BACKGROUND
Periodically, amendments to the Municipal Code are necessary to provide clarification, to be consistent with customary practice or comply with changes in State and Federal laws. In the past, various titles of the code have routinely been amended for these reasons, and to align with the latest State and Federal regulations.
ANALYSIS
City Council Staff Report - Page 2 of 6
Attachment 4 includes all draft amendments, shown in track changes. Draft amendments are shown with track changes, with new draft language underlined and language proposed for removal with strikethroughs. Only those chapters and/or sections with proposed changes are included in the attached documents as excerpts from the Rancho Cordova Municipal Code. A summary of the changes is provided below. As a note, Attachment 2 includes all the amendments in a non-track change format. This is provided as an exhibit to the Ordinance.
Attachment 3 is the new Floodplain Management Ordinance (Chapter 16.96) required by FEMA to keep the City in compliance with the requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program.
Title 3 Revenues and Taxation
Chapter 3.60 Purchasing System
Currently the limitation for the purchasing agent ($100,000) is called out at the beginning of the chapter under 3.60.030(A). In the proposed amendment, subsequent sections addressing purchasing authority within the chapter are referenced to 3.60.030(A) rather than restating the amount.
Chapter 3.70 Informal Bidding Procedures
The City's Informal Bidding Procedures detail informal bidding thresholds for public projects.
The updates would clarify and revise language in Chapter 3.70 to align with the latest revisions to the state’s informal bidding thresholds.
Title 6 Health and Sanitation
Chapter 6.20 Solid Waste Management
The purpose of this chapter is to provide for the uniform regulation of residential and commercial solid waste collection, removal, and transportation within the geographical area of the city. The revisions would update Chapter 6.20 to align with the requirements of the Statewide mandatory Organic Recycling Program (SB 1383).
Chapter 6.21 Business and Multifamily Recycling and Organics Recycling The purpose of this chapter is to provide a mechanism to require the implementation of recycling programs and organics recycling programs for covered generators within the city. The revisions would update multiple sections of Chapter 6.21 to align with the requirements of the Statewide mandatory Organic Recycling Program (SB 1383).
Title 10 Vehicles and Traffic
The current language in this chapter sets forth various procedures and standards related to traffic, pedestrian and bike traffic, and speed limits within the city. The revisions would clarify and update language in Title 10. In addition, the list of one-way streets (Section 10.44) is not needed and has been deleted as part of this update.
Title 12 Streets and Sidewalks
The current language in this chapter sets forth various procedures and standards related to street and sidewalk improvements within the city. The revisions would clarify and update language in Title 12.
Title 15 Water and Sewers
City Council Staff Report - Page 3 of 6
Chapter 15.10 Storm Drainage Fee
The current language in this chapter sets forth the provisions and standards for the establishment and administration of fees related to the operation and maintenance of the city’s storm drainage system. The revisions would update Chapter 15.10 to replace references to the County of Sacramento, with the City of Rancho Cordova as the lead agency for operating and maintaining the city’s storm drainage system.
Chapter 15.12 Stormwater Management and Discharge Control The current language in this chapter sets forth the provisions for compliance with the city’s Municipal Stormwater Permit within the city. The revisions would update Chapter 15.12 to align with the requirements of the latest Municipal Stormwater Permit and the Federal Clean Water Act regulations, as required by the State of CA.
Title 16 Buildings and Construction
Chapter 16.44 Land Grading and Erosion Control
The current language in this chapter sets forth the provisions and standards for compliance with the grading and erosion and sediment control requirements within the city. The revisions would update Chapter 16.44 to clarify language and increase the fine for repeat offenders. The proposed fine is $100 per day for first violation, and $500 per day for second or subsequent violations.
Chapter 16.84 Development Impact Fees to Finance the Cost of Transportation Facilities The current language in this chapter sets forth the provisions and standards for the establishment and administration of the Transportation Impact Fee within the city. The revisions would update Chapter 16.84 to reference the latest nexus study and update fee categories.
Chapter 16.96 Floodplain Management (New Chapter)
A floodplain management ordinance is a set of regulations and guidelines implemented to mitigate the impact of flooding by restricting certain activities and requiring mitigation measures in flood-prone areas, aiming to protect public safety and reduce damage during flood events. If development within a floodplain is permitted, the ordinance requires mitigation such as technical studies, demonstration of no-net loss in flood storage, and minimum floor elevations.
The proposed floodplain ordinance only applies if a project is approved to be built in the floodplain.
The City of Rancho Cordova currently implements the Sacramento County Floodplain Management Ordinance. In a recent audit by the California Department of Water Resources, the state required that the city adopt its own ordinance to comply with State and Federal guidelines, and to continue to participate in the National Flood Insurance Program, which provides flood insurance within Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mapped floodplains.
Adoption of this chapter will replace the city's reliance on the County of Sacramento's Floodplain Ordinances and allow the City to continue participating in the National Flood Insurance Program. The ordinance does not significantly change the city’s processes in regulating floodplains and will not alter the current city review and approval processes for development in the floodplain. The proposed ordinance uses the latest language from California Department of Water Resources and FEMA.
Implementation of the floodplain ordinance will apply to all flood-prone areas in the city,
City Council Staff Report - Page 4 of 6
including FEMA floodplain areas. The majority of the FEMA floodplain areas within the city lie along the American River. The current effective FEMA base flood elevations in that area do not reflect good work done by the US Army Corps of Engineers in adding a spillway to Folsom Dam which significantly reduces high flows on the American River. Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA) submitted revised modeling information to FEMA requesting the adjustment of the base flood elevation to account for changes in operations at the Folsom Dam, and downstream levee certification efforts in the City and County of Sacramento. Once approved, the revised FEMA maps will show a reduction in the base flood elevation for floodplain areas within FEMA flood zones in the city. The approved, but not yet mapped American River base flood elevation will be several feet lower than what is currently mapped. It is anticipated that the FEMA maps will not reflect the revised flood elevations for a number of years. The city, as a co- applicant in this effort, is receiving periodic updates from FEMA.
The addition of the proposed floodplain management ordinance (chapter 16.96) will meet General Plan Policy S.2.1.2, which requires the city to participate in the National Flood Insurance Program by updating the floodplain management ordinance as necessary to help reduce future flood damage.
The proposed floodplain management ordinance does not supersede more restrictive General Plan policies. The ordinance specifically states in section 16.96.010-9 that "these regulations are not intended to repeal, abrogate or impair any existing ordinances including land development regulations, subdivision regulations, zoning ordinances, general plan policies, stormwater management regulations, or building codes, nor any existing easements, covenants, or deed restrictions. In the event of an overlap or conflict between these regulations and any other ordinance, code, regulation, easement, covenant, or deed restriction, the more restrictive shall govern". This would include, without limitations, other provisions of the General Plan that address development in the floodplain, such as Policy S.2.2 that discusses discouraging and precluding development in the floodplain, unless otherwise approved by the city's floodplain administrator based on site-specific mitigation. General Plan Policy S.2.2, and the subsequent action items are listed below for reference:
• Policy S.2.2 - Manage the risk of flooding by discouraging new development located in an area that is likely to flood.
o Action S.2.2.1 - Disapprove new projects that would result in new or increased flooding impacts on adjoining parcels or upstream and downstream areas, unless it can be shown that the existing drainage facilities are being improved to mitigate such impacts.
o Action S.2.2.2 - Preclude development within the 100-year floodplain, as determined by the most recent floodplain mapping available from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) or other acceptable source, unless otherwise approved by the City floodplain administrator based on site-specific mitigation.
o Action S.2.2.3 - On flood-prone parcels, locate development on portions of the site that are not subject to flooding, consistent with other policies of this General Plan or provide an approved grading plan showing no-net-loss of floodplain storage.
o Action S.2.2.4 - Require every residential lot to have buildable area sufficient to accommodate a residence and associated structures outside the 100-year and 200- year floodplain. Discourage the use of fill to create buildable area within the 100- year floodplain, except in extreme circumstances consistent with all other
City Council Staff Report - Page 5 of 6
applicable policies and regulations, and after review to determine potential impacts on wildlife, habitat, and flooding on other parcels. o Action S.2.2.5 - Require vehicular access to the buildable area of all parcels to be at or above the ten-year floodplain elevation.
o Action S.2.2.6 - Preclude the creation of lots whose access will be inundated by flows resulting from a ten-year or greater storm event. Bridges or similar structures may be used to provide access over creeks or inundated areas, subject to applicable local, state, and federal regulations. o Action S.2.2.7 - Discourage additional crossings of natural creeks in order to reduce potential flooding and access problems, except as needed to provide roadway and trail connections and preserve natural resource areas. o Action S.2.2.8 – Regulate new and modified bridge structures that will cause an increase in water surface elevations of the 100-year floodplain and 200-year floodplains.
Per FEMA, consequences of not adopting the new floodplain management ordinance include:
1. No resident will be able to purchase a flood insurance policy.
2. Existing flood insurance policies will not be renewed.
3. No Federal grants or loans for development may be made in identified flood hazard areas under programs administered by Federal agencies such as HUD, EPA, and SBA.
4. No Federal disaster assistance may be provided to repair insurable buildings located in identified flood hazard areas for damage caused by a flood.
5. No Federal mortgage insurance or loan guarantees may be provided in identified flood hazard areas.
On August 7th, 2023, the above information was presented to City Council, at which time staff heard public comments and received Council input. Staff performed additional analysis of CEQA exemptions and confirmed that the proposed ordinance is exempt from CEQA, for reasons including the following:
• Implementation of the ordinance would not differ substantially from implementation of the County ordinance, as currently applied. Therefore, it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that adoption of this ordinance will have a significant effect on the environment.
• This ordinance is also exempt from CEQA pursuant to CEQA Guidelines Sections 15307 and 15308.The proposed ordinance regulates development within the floodplain in order to promote public health, safety, and general welfare in conjunction with maintenance, preservation, and restoration of floodplains for local creeks and the American River.
In addition, City staff analyzed the proposed ordinance and added clarifications, including:
• Added the following to Chapter 16.96, Section 1 "Recitals": The City, FEMA, and the Central Valley Flood Protection Board have jurisdiction over projects along the American River Parkway. For proposed projects in this area, the most stringent floor elevation requirement applies.
• Revised Section Sec.16.96.030-2 by adding the underlined verbiage: The Floodplain Administrator is authorized to waive the submission of site plans, construction
City Council Staff Report - Page 6 of 6
documents, and other data that are required by these regulations but that are not required to be prepared by a qualified CA Licensed Land Surveyor or Civil Engineer, such as installation of a water heater, backyard awning, and other minor building improvements or permits, when it is found that the nature of the proposed development is such that the review of such submissions is not necessary to ascertain compliance with these regulations.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
CEQA requires analysis of agency approvals of discretionary “projects.” A “project,” under CEQA, is defined as “the whole of an action, which has a potential for resulting in either a direct physical change in the environment, or a reasonably foreseeable indirect physical change in the environment.” (CEQA Guidelines, § 15378.) As reflected in State CEQA Guideline 15061 (b) (3), an activity is not subject to CEQA, “where it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a significant effect on the environment…” The proposed amendments are not a “project” within the meaning of CEQA because the amendments seek to further regulate or clarify uses that are already present in the City or provide consistency with State law and no significant expansion of these activities can reasonably be anticipated to occur. Because no expansion of uses or activities is reasonably anticipated, no possibility exists that the ordinance will result in a significant effect on the environment. Thus, the proposed ordinance is not subject to the requirements of CEQA.
However, in the event that adoption of the ordinance is considered a CEQA project, it would nonetheless qualify for categorical exemptions as set forth below.
CEQA Guidelines Section 15061(b)(3) states that a project is exempt from CEQA “where it can be seen with certainty that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a significant effect on the environment.” The approval of the code amendments set forth in the proposed ordinance does not approve any physical development and it would not result in a direct or indirect physical changes in the environment. Any specific development projects that may result from these changes will be subject to environmental review. The proposed amendments are consistent with the City’s General Plan. For these reasons, the proposed amendments would not have the potential to result in individually or cumulatively significant effects on the environment and these Municipal Code amendments are exempt from review under CEQA and no further environmental review is necessary.
FISCAL IMPACT AND FUNDING SOURCE
There is no fiscal impact to the City's General Fund.
ATTACHMENT(S)
1. Ordinance
2. Exhibit A to the Ordinance - Revised Title 3,6,10,12,15,16
3. Exhibit B to the Ordinance -Floodplain Management Ordinance
4. Track Changes
5. Public Works Code Updates Presentation