Quarterly Economic and Market Update
September 2022
Economic and Market Update
*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: FHN Main Street and Bloomberg 9/30/2022
Item 9/30/2022 6/30/2022 Change
U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 263,000 293,000 (30,000)
Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.6% (0.1%)
Labor Force Participation 62.3% 62.2% 0.1%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 3.08% 1.58% 1.50%
2 Year T-Note 4.28% 2.96% 1.32%
3 Month T-Bill 3.27% 1.67% 1.60%
3 Year T-Note 4.29% 3.01% 1.28%
5 Year T-Note 4.09% 3.04% 1.05%
10 Year T-Note 3.83% 3.02% 0.82%
U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 1.70% 1.61% 0.09%
30 Year Mortgage Rate 7.06% 5.83% 1.23%
1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.03% 0.03% 0.00%
1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.81% 0.80% 0.01%
Dow Jones 28,726 30,775 (6.7%)
S&P 500 3,586 3,785 (5.3%)
Consumer Price Index YOY* 8.3% 9.1% (0.8%)
U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $3.80 $4.84 ($1.04)
Retail Sales YOY* 8.3% 8.8% (0.5%)
Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 16.0% 18.7% (2.7%)
Consumer Confidence 103.2 98.7 4.5
Gold (per ounce) $1,660.61 $1,807.27 ($146.66)
Dollar Index 112.12 104.69 7.43
2 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 9/30/2022
9/30/2022
2.9 -1.4
5.2 4.7
1.8 3.3
2.3 1.3
0.6 2.4
1.2 2.4
2.0 1.7
2.0 3.4
4.1 2.82.8
2.9 0.7
2.2 2.7
3.6 1.8
-4.6
-29.9
35.3 3.9
6.3 7.0
2.7 7.0
-1.6
-0.6
1.4 1.0
0.8 0.9
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5 15
25 35
45 Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023 Percent
U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*
Estimates
3 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
9/30/2022
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 9/30/2022
8.7 8.0
4.1 4.7
-0.6
7.1 2.12.1
-0.7
6.9 2.62.6
6.1 4.4
5.8 6.5
6.6 2.7
4.9 3.1
0.2 3.3
5.3 5.6
-0.5
-0.2
5.4 4.6
5.5 3.2
-0.3
2.5 -1.8
4.6 7.2
4.2 3.53.5
4.2 3.7
1.9 -0.1
3.5 2.8
4.0 2.7
3.8 4.4
4.5 4.8
4.1 1.0
1.7 2.8
3.9 3.5
2.8 2.0
0.1 -2.6
2.7 1.5
2.3 1.8
2.3 2.7
1.7 2.2
2.9 2.3
-2.8
5.9 2.5
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 1950195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 Percent
U.S. Annual GDP *
1950s 4.2% 1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3% 1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.9% 2010s 2.3% 4 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Month Average Job Change 474,167
9/30/2022
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0
20.0 Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls YOY Change
5 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9/30/2022
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Percent
Unemployment Rates
U.S.A Nevada California Idaho Washington Hawaii Oregon Utah 6 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
9/30/2022
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
Mar-16
Oct-16
May-17
Dec-17
Jul-18
Feb-19Sep-19
Apr-20
Nov-20
Jun-21
Jan-22
Aug-22
Millions
U.S. Number of Employed
Full-Time and Part-Time
60.0 60.5
61.0 61.5
62.0 62.5
63.0 63.5
64.0 Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Aug-15
Mar-16
Oct-16
May-17
Dec-17
Jul-18
Feb-19Sep-19
Apr-20
Nov-20
Jun-21
Jan-22
Aug-22
Percent
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
7 Economic and Market Update
Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg
9/30/2022
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.
0.0 0.5
1.0 1.5
2.0 2.5
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 Millions
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
(4 Week Moving Average)
8 Economic and Market Update
*Real: Inflation Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board
9/30/2022
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Percent
U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
110
120
130
140
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Index Value
U.S. Consumer Confidence
9 Economic and Market Update
CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis 9/30/2022
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 9.0
10.0 Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Percent
CPI and CPIX YOY % Change
CPI CPIX
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Percent
PCE and PCEC YOY % Change
PCE PCEC
10 Economic and Market Update
Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors) Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
9/30/2022
0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
20 22
24 Apr-14
Sep-14Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Aug-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
May-21
Oct-21
Mar-22
YOY Percent
Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price Index
YOY % Increase
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 6.5
7.0 Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
New-Thousands
Existing-Millions
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing-Left
New-Right
11 Economic and Market Update
Source: U.S. Treasury
9/30/2022
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
$31
$32
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Trillions
U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding
1.3 1.5
1.7 1.9
2.1 2.3
2.5 2.7
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Percent
U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate
12 Economic and Market Update
Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the September 21, 2022 FOMC Meeting Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
4.00 4.50
5.00 Oct-2022
Nov-2022
Dec-2022
Jan-2023
Feb-2023
Mar-2023
Apr-2023
May-2023
Jun-2023
Jul-2023
Aug-2023
Sep-2023
Oct-2023
Nov-2023
Dec-2023
Jan-2024
Feb-2024
Mar-2024
Apr-2024
May-2024
Jun-2024
Jul-2024
Aug-2024
Sep-2024
Oct-2024
Nov-2024
Dec-2024
Jan-2025
Feb-2025
Mar-2025
Apr-2025
May-2025
Jun-2025
Jul-2025
Percent
Fed Funds Futures Fed's Anticipated Rates
Fed Funds Futures
13 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
Figures may not total due to rounding
3M
Maturity
2Y 4.28 2.96 1.32
1Y 3.99 2.78 1.21
6M 3.93 2.49 1.45
3.27 1.67 1.60
3.83 3.02 0.82
9/30/22 6/30/22 Change
9/30/2022
3Y 4.29 3.01 1.28
30Y 3.78 3.19 0.59
5Y 4.09 3.04 1.05
10Y
0.0 0.5
1.0 1.5
2.0 2.5
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
9/30/22
6/30/22
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
180
3M6M
1Y2Y
3Yr
5Y
10Y30Y
Basis Points
Basis Point Change
14 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y
1Y
3M
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y
5Y
2Y
15 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17
18 19
20 21
Jan-54Jan-56Jan-58Jan-60Jan-62Jan-64Jan-66Jan-68Jan-70Jan-72Jan-74Jan-76Jan-78Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22 Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate 5Yr
2Yr
Fed Funds
16 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
Global Treasury Rates
2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields
-0.05%
0.69%
1.75%
1.78%
2.03%
2.11%
2.87%
3.31%
3.79%
4.20%
4.28%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Australia
Canada
England
USA
0.06%
0.89%
1.96%
2.35%
2.55%
2.62%
3.33%
3.66%
3.89%
4.09%
4.38%
-1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Canada
Australia
Italy
USA
England
0.24%
1.19%
2.11%
2.72%
3.17%
3.17%
3.28%
3.83%
3.89%
4.08%
4.51%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Canada
Spain
USA
Australia
England
Italy
17 Economic and Market Update
ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) 1-5Yr Non-Callable Agency (GVPB) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC) Source: ICE BofAML Indices
9/30/2022
Current Spread is 3 Current Spread is 81
-20
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr Agency vs Treasury
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury
18 Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
9/30/2022
Current Spread is 82 Current Spread is 37
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22 Basis Points
Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
Aug-08Aug-09Aug-10Aug-11Aug-12Aug-13Aug-14Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22 Basis Points
Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury
19 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
-18.8
-11.2 -11.0 -10.6 -10.4 -10.3
-8.1
-6.2 -5.7 -5.4 -5.3 -5.2 -4.9 -4.7 -4.5
-2.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6
-0.1
0.2 7.8
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0 5
10 Percent
Selected Sector Quarterly Total Returns
20 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
9/30/2022
-31.8
-27.7 -27.5
-25.1 -24.9 -24.5
-18.8 -18.7
-15.6 -15.6 -15.5 -15.3 -14.5 -13.5 -11.8
-8.1
-5.6 -5.1
0.0 12.5
19.1 24.2
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
0 10
20 30
Percent
Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns
21 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FHN Main Street
9/30/2022
2.50 2.70
2.90 3.10
3.30 3.50
3.70 3.90
4.10 4.30
6/30/22
7/3/227/6/227/9/22
7/12/227/15/227/18/227/21/227/24/227/27/227/30/22
8/2/228/5/228/8/22
8/11/228/14/228/17/228/20/228/23/228/26/228/29/22
9/1/229/4/229/7/22
9/10/229/13/229/16/229/19/229/22/229/25/229/28/22
Percent
5 Year Treasury Note Yield
Bullard Says Fed Is Prepared
To Hold Interest Rates Higher
For Longer Should Inflation
Persist
Philly Fed Index
Drops to -12.3 US Job Growth
Surges
Strong Jobs Report Keeps
Fed Aggressive Against
Inflation
Fed Hikes Rates
by 0.75%
Treasury Two-Year
Yields Rise To Highest
Since 2007
Biden Announces
Student Loan Relief
CPI YoY Up 8.3% Versus
Expected 8.1%
Fed Hikes Rates by
0.75%
Fed Takes Hawkish
Stance to Curb
Inflation
22 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FHN Financial, FHN Main Street
9/30/2022
28,000
29,000
30,000
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
6/30/22
7/3/227/6/227/9/22
7/12/227/15/227/18/227/21/227/24/227/27/227/30/22
8/2/228/5/228/8/22
8/11/228/14/228/17/228/20/228/23/228/26/228/29/22
9/1/229/4/229/7/22
9/10/229/13/229/16/229/19/229/22/229/25/229/28/22
Dow Jones Industrial Average
US Stocks Advance With
Tech Shares Rally
June Retail Sales Beat
Expectations
Bullard And Waller
Downplay
Recession Fears Stocks Extend Drop
With Fed Vow To Curb
Inflation
Fed Chair Powell Says Rate
Hikes Will Continue In Fight
Against Inflation
Fed Chair Powell
Doesn't See Recession
As Likely
Big Tech Stocks Help
S&P 500 Close At Its
Highest Since May 4th
House Speaker Pelosi
Visits Taiwan Adding
Geopolitical Tension
S&P 500 Drops To TwoYear Low
CPI YoY Up 8.3% Versus
Expected 8.1%
23 Disclosure
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