Quarterly Economic and Market Update
March 2023
Economic and Market Update
*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: FHN Main Street and Bloomberg 3/31/2023
Item 3/31/2023 12/31/2022 Change
U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 236,000 239,000 (3,000)
Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
Labor Force Participation 62.6% 62.3% 0.3%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 4.83% 4.33% 0.50%
2 Year T-Note 4.03% 4.43% (0.40%)
3 Month T-Bill 4.75% 4.37% 0.38%
3 Year T-Note 3.79% 4.23% (0.44%)
5 Year T-Note 3.58% 4.01% (0.43%)
10 Year T-Note 3.47% 3.88% (0.41%)
U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 2.61% 2.32% 0.29%
30 Year Mortgage Rate 6.81% 5.83% 0.98%
1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.10% 0.08% 0.02%
1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.76% 0.68% 0.08%
Dow Jones 33,274 33,147 0.4%
S&P 500 4,109 3,840 7.0%
Consumer Price Index YOY* 5.8% 6.5% (0.7%)
U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $3.50 $3.21 $0.30
Retail Sales YOY* 4.2% 6.2% (2.0%)
Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 2.5% 4.6% (2.1%)
Consumer Confidence 102.9 106.0 (3.1)
Gold (per ounce) $1,969.28 $1,824.02 $145.26
Dollar Index 102.51 103.52 (1.02)
2 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 3/31/2023
3/31/2023
5.2 4.7
1.8 3.3
2.3 1.3
0.6 2.4
1.2 2.4
2.0 1.7
2.0 3.4
4.1 2.82.8
2.9 0.7
2.2 2.7
3.6 1.8
-4.6
-29.9
35.3 3.9
6.3 7.0
2.7 7.0
-1.6
-0.6
3.2 2.6
1.3 0.2
-0.5
0.4 -45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5 15
25 35
45 Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023 Percent
U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*
Estimates
3 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3/31/2023
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
As of: 3/31/2023
8.7 8.0
4.1 4.7
-0.6
7.1 2.12.1
-0.7
6.9 2.62.6
6.1 4.4
5.8 6.5
6.6 2.7
4.9 3.1
0.2 3.3
5.3 5.6
-0.5
-0.2
5.4 4.6
5.5 3.2
-0.3
2.5 -1.8
4.6 7.2
4.2 3.53.5
4.2 3.7
1.9 -0.1
3.5 2.8
4.0 2.7
3.8 4.4
4.5 4.8
4.1 1.0
1.7 2.8
3.9 3.5
2.8 2.0
0.1 -2.6
2.7 1.5
2.3 1.8
2.3 2.7
1.7 2.2
2.9 2.3
-2.8
5.9 2.1
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 1950195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 Percent
U.S. Annual GDP *
1950s 4.2% 1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3% 1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.9% 2010s 2.3% 4 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Month Average Job Change 345,417
3/31/2023
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0
20.0 Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls YOY Change
5 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3/31/2023
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Percent
Unemployment Rates
U.S.A Nevada California Idaho Washington Hawaii Oregon Utah 6 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3/31/2023
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-16Sep-16
Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Mar-20
Oct-20
May-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Feb-23
Millions
U.S. Number of Employed
Full-Time and Part-Time
60.0 60.5
61.0 61.5
62.0 62.5
63.0 63.5
64.0 Mar-13
Oct-13
May-14
Dec-14
Jul-15
Feb-16Sep-16
Apr-17
Nov-17
Jun-18
Jan-19
Aug-19
Mar-20
Oct-20
May-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Feb-23
Percent
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
7 Economic and Market Update
Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg
3/31/2023
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.
0.0 0.5
1.0 1.5
2.0 2.5
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Millions
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
(4 Week Moving Average)
8 Economic and Market Update
*Real: Inflation Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board
3/31/2023
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Percent
U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
110
120
130
140
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Index Value
U.S. Consumer Confidence
9 Economic and Market Update
CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis 3/31/2023
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 9.0
10.0 Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Percent
CPI and CPIX YOY % Change
CPI CPIX
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Percent
PCE and PCEC YOY % Change
PCE PCEC
10 Economic and Market Update
Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors) Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
3/31/2023
0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
20 22
24 Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17Feb-18
Jul-18
Dec-18
May-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Sep-22
YOY Percent
Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price Index
YOY % Increase
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 6.5
7.0 Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
New-Thousands
Existing-Millions
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing-Left
New-Right
11 Economic and Market Update
Source: U.S. Treasury
3/31/2023
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
$31
$32
$33
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Trillions
U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding
1.3 1.5
1.7 1.9
2.1 2.3
2.5 2.7
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate
12 Economic and Market Update
Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the September 21, 2022 FOMC Meeting Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
4.00 4.50
5.00 5.50
Mar-2023
Apr-2023
May-2023
Jun-2023
Jul-2023
Aug-2023
Sep-2023
Oct-2023
Nov-2023
Dec-2023
Jan-2024
Feb-2024
Mar-2024
Apr-2024
May-2024
Jun-2024
Jul-2024
Aug-2024
Sep-2024
Oct-2024
Nov-2024
Dec-2024
Jan-2025
Feb-2025
Mar-2025
Apr-2025
May-2025
Jun-2025
Jul-2025
Aug-2025
Sep-2025
Oct-2025
Nov-2025
Dec-2025
Jan-2026
Feb-2026
Mar-2026
Apr-2026
Percent
Fed Funds Futures Fed's Anticipated Rates
Fed Funds Futures
13 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
Figures may not total due to rounding
3M
Maturity
2Y 4.03 4.43 -0.40
1Y 4.62 4.71 -0.09
6M 4.88 4.76 0.12
4.75 4.37 0.38
3.47 3.88 -0.41
3/31/23 12/30/22 Change
3/31/2023
3Y 3.79 4.23 -0.44
30Y 3.65 3.97 -0.32
5Y 3.58 4.01 -0.43
10Y
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
3/31/23
12/30/22
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
3M6M
1Y2Y
3Yr
5Y
10Y30Y
Basis Points
Basis Point Change
14 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
5.50 Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y
1Y
3M
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y
5Y
2Y
15 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17
18 19
20 21
Jan-54Jan-56Jan-58Jan-60Jan-62Jan-64Jan-66Jan-68Jan-70Jan-72Jan-74Jan-76Jan-78Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22 Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate 5Yr
2Yr
Fed Funds
16 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
Global Treasury Rates
2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields
-0.06%
1.18%
2.67%
2.68%
2.79%
2.89%
2.95%
3.16%
3.43%
3.73%
4.03%
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
Portugal
France
Spain
Australia
Italy
England
Canada
USA
0.09%
1.16%
2.31%
2.65%
2.72%
2.93%
3.02%
3.05%
3.35%
3.57%
3.60%
-1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Canada
Australia
England
USA
Italy
0.33%
1.20%
2.29%
2.79%
2.90%
3.11%
3.30%
3.30%
3.47%
3.49%
4.09%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Canada
Portugal
Australia
Spain
USA
England
Italy
17 Economic and Market Update
ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) 1-5Yr Non-Callable Agency (GVPB) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC) Source: ICE BofAML Indices
3/31/2023
Current Spread is 10 Current Spread is 76
-20
0 20
40 60
80 Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr Agency vs Treasury
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury
18 Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
3/31/2023
Current Spread is 98 Current Spread is 89
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Basis Points
Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
Feb-09Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23 Basis Points
Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury
19 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
-6.3
-5.2
-2.8
0.3 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.2
5.4 7.4 7.5 8.0 9.0
20.7 (10)
(5)
0 5
10 15
20 25
Percent
Selected Sector Monthly Total Returns
20 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2023
-20.2
-17.8 -17.4
-14.4
-10.8 -10.4
-9.1 -8.9 -8.6 -7.8
-6.2 -5.8 -5.1 -4.6 -3.8
-2.1
-0.2 0.0
0.2 1.5 2.2
6.9 (25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0 5
10 Percent
Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns
21 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FHN Main Street
3/31/2023
3.30 3.50
3.70 3.90
4.10 4.30
4.50 12/31/22
1/3/231/6/231/9/23
1/12/231/15/231/18/231/21/231/24/231/27/231/30/23
2/2/232/5/232/8/23
2/11/232/14/232/17/232/20/232/23/232/26/23
3/1/233/4/233/7/23
3/10/233/13/233/16/233/19/233/22/233/25/233/28/233/31/23 Percent
5 Year Treasury Note Yield
Yields Continue To Fall As Three
US And One European Bank Fail
In One Week
Fed Hikes Rates
By 0.25%
US Wholesale Prices Slide
0.5% In Dec, And Retail
Sales Drop 1.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield
Settles At 3.74%, Logging
Biggest Weekly Increase
Since Dec 2022
CPI YoY At 6.4%,
Exceeding Estimated
6.2%
Dec CPI YoY At 6.5%,
Lowest Level In Over
A Year
Yields Tumble Across
The Curve As
Investors Rush To
Safer Assets After
SVB Collapse
Fed Officials Affirm Commitment
To Significantly Raise Rates In
2023
Gap Between 10-Year
And 2-Year Yield
Reaches Deepest Level
Since Oct 1981
Fed Hikes Rates
By 0.25%
22 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, FHN Financial, FHN Main Street
3/31/2023
31,500
32,000
32,500
33,000
33,500
34,000
34,500
12/31/22
1/3/231/6/231/9/23
1/12/231/15/231/18/231/21/231/24/231/27/231/30/23
2/2/232/5/232/8/23
2/11/232/14/232/17/232/20/232/23/232/26/23
3/1/233/4/233/7/23
3/10/233/13/233/16/233/19/233/22/233/25/233/28/233/31/23 Dow Jones Industrial Average
Fed Hikes
Rates By
0.25%
CPI YoY At 6.4%, Exceeding
Estimated 6.2%
Strong Labor Markets
Fuel Speculation That
Fed Will Continue To
Raise Rates
NY Fed Williams Says Central
Bank Needs To Keep
"Restrictive" Interest Rates
For A Few Years To Quell
Inflation
Tech Megacaps
Power Stock Market
Rebound
Weak US Retail Sales And
Industrial Production Data
Fuel Concerns About
Recession Risk
US Economy Adds
223k Jobs In Dec
While Hourly Pay
Rises By 0.3%
Home Depot Sharply Lowers
Fiscal-Year 2024 Earnings
Estimates; Walmart Slashes
Earnings Estimates Citing
"Pressure On The Consumer"
Dec CPI YoY At
6.5%, Lowest
Level In Over A
Year
Jan PCE Rises 4.7%
YoY, Overshooting
4.4% Expectation
US Stocks Slide As
SVB Crisis Rattles
Investors
Powell Tells Congress
The Central Bank Will
Need To Raise Rates
More Than Previously
Expected
Fed Hikes
Rates By
0.25%
Signs Of Cooling
Inflation Boost Hopes
The Fed Might Soon End
Aggressive Interest Rate
Hikes
23 Disclosure
This report represents the opinions of FHN Financial Main Street Advisors, LLC and should not be considered predictive of any future market performance. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, investment strategy, or investment product.
Although this information has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed.
This is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. All herein listed securities are subject to availability and change in price. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and changes in any assumptions may have a material effect on projected results. Ratings on all securities are subject to change.
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