Quarterly Economic and Market Update
December 2023
Economic and Market Update
*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: Meeder Public Funds and Bloomberg Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 4.9% 3.9% 1.0%
Consumer Confidence 102.0 104.3 (2.3)
Gold (per ounce) $2,062.98 $1,848.63 $214.35
Dollar Index 101.33 106.17 (4.84)
U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $3.11 $3.82 ($0.71)
Retail Sales YOY* 4.8% 4.0% 0.8%
S&P 500 4,770 4,288 11.2%
Consumer Price Index YOY* 3.0% 3.7% (0.7%)
1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.57% 0.73% (0.16%)
Dow Jones 37,690 33,508 12.5%
30 Year Mortgage Rate 6.99% 5.83% 1.16%
1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.01% 0.08% (0.07%)
10 Year T-Note 3.88% 4.57% (0.69%)
U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 3.21% 3.02% 0.20%
3 Year T-Note 4.01% 4.80% (0.79%)
5 Year T-Note 3.85% 4.61% (0.76%)
2 Year T-Note 4.25% 5.05% (0.80%)
3 Month T-Bill 5.34% 5.45% (0.11%)
Labor Force Participation 62.5% 62.8% (0.3%)
Effective Fed Funds Rate 5.33% 5.33% 0.00%
U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 216,000 262,000 (46,000)
Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.8% (0.1%)
12/31/2023
Item 12/31/2023 9/30/2023 Change
2 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
12/31/2023
12/31/2023
3.6 2.5
1.6 0.7
2.3 1.3
2.9 2.2
2.0 2.3
3.2 4.6
3.3 2.1
2.5 0.6
2.2 3.4
4.6 2.6
-5.3
-28.0
34.8 4.2
5.2 6.2
3.3 7.0
-2.0
-0.6
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
4.9 1.2
0.6 0.4
0.9 -40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024 Percent
U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*
Estimates
3 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12/31/2023
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
12/31/2023
8.7 8.0
4.1 4.7
-0.6
7.1 2.12.1
-0.7
6.9 2.62.6
6.1 4.4
5.8 6.5
6.6 2.7
4.9 3.1
0.2 3.3
5.3 5.6
-0.5
-0.2
5.4 4.6
5.5 3.2
-0.3
2.5 -1.8
4.6 7.2
4.2 3.53.5
4.2 3.7
1.9 -0.1
3.5 2.8
4.0 2.7
3.8 4.4
4.5 4.8
4.1 1.0
1.7 2.8
3.8 3.5
2.8 2.0
0.1 -2.6
2.7 1.6
2.3 2.1
2.5 2.9
1.8 2.5
3.0 2.5
-2.2
5.8 1.91.9
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 1950195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 Percent
U.S. Annual GDP *
1950s 4.2% 1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3% 1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.9% 2010s 2.3% 4 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Month Average Job Change 224,750
12/31/2023
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls YOY Change
5 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12/31/2023
2 7
12 17
22 27
32 Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Percent
Unemployment Rates
U.S.A Nevada California Idaho Washington Hawaii Oregon Utah 6 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12/31/2023
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
Dec-13
Jul-14
Feb-15Sep-15
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jun-17
Jan-18
Aug-18
Mar-19
Oct-19
May-20
Dec-20
Jul-21
Feb-22Sep-22
Apr-23
Nov-23
Millions
U.S. Number of Employed
Full-Time and Part-Time
60.0 60.5
61.0 61.5
62.0 62.5
63.0 63.5
Dec-13
Jul-14
Feb-15Sep-15
Apr-16
Nov-16
Jun-17
Jan-18
Aug-18
Mar-19
Oct-19
May-20
Dec-20
Jul-21
Feb-22Sep-22
Apr-23
Nov-23
Percent
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
7 Economic and Market Update
Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg
12/31/2023
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 Millions
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
(4 Week Moving Average)
8 Economic and Market Update
*Real: Inflation Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board
12/31/2023
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Percent
U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
110
120
130
140
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Index Value
U.S. Consumer Confidence
9 Economic and Market Update
CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis 12/31/2023
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 9.0
10.0 Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Percent
CPI and CPIX YOY % Change
CPI CPIX
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Percent
PCE and PCEC YOY % Change
PCE PCEC
10 Economic and Market Update
Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors) Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
12/31/2023
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
20 22
24 Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Aug-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
May-21
Oct-21
Mar-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Jun-23
YOY Percent
Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price Index
YOY % Increase
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 6.5
7.0 Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
New-Thousands
Existing-Millions
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing-Left
New-Right
11 Economic and Market Update
Source: U.S. Treasury
12/31/2023
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
$31
$32
$33
$34
$35
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Trillions
U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding
1.3 1.5
1.7 1.9
2.1 2.3
2.5 2.7
2.9 3.1
3.3 Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20
Dec-20
Jun-21
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate
12 Economic and Market Update
Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the September 20, 2023 FOMC Meeting Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
4.00 4.50
5.00 5.50
6.00 Dec-2023
Jan-2024
Feb-2024
Mar-2024
Apr-2024
May-2024
Jun-2024
Jul-2024
Aug-2024
Sep-2024
Oct-2024
Nov-2024
Dec-2024
Jan-2025
Feb-2025
Mar-2025
Apr-2025
May-2025
Jun-2025
Jul-2025
Aug-2025
Sep-2025
Oct-2025
Nov-2025
Dec-2025
Jan-2026
Feb-2026
Mar-2026
Apr-2026
May-2026
Jun-2026
Jul-2026
Aug-2026
Sep-2026
Oct-2026
Nov-2026
Dec-2026
Jan-2027
Percent
Fed Funds Futures Fed's Anticipated Rates
Fed Funds Futures
13 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
Figures may not total due to rounding
12/31/2023
3Y 4.01 4.80 -0.79
30Y 4.03 4.70 -0.67
5Y 3.85 4.61 -0.76
10Y
5.34 3.88 4.57 -0.69
12/29/23 9/29/23 Change
3M
Maturity
2Y 4.25 5.05 -0.80
1Y 4.77 5.46 -0.69
6M 5.26 5.55 -0.29
5.45 -0.11
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
12/29/23
9/29/23
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 3M6M
1Y2Y
3Yr
5Y
10Y30Y
Basis Points
Basis Point Change
14 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
5.50 5.75
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y
1Y
3M
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
5.50 Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y
5Y
2Y
15 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17
18 19
20 21
Jan-54Jan-56Jan-58Jan-60Jan-62Jan-64Jan-66Jan-68Jan-70Jan-72Jan-74Jan-76Jan-78Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-24 Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate 5Yr
2Yr
Fed Funds
16 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
Global Treasury Rates
2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields
0.04%
1.07%
2.39%
2.41%
2.93%
2.94%
2.98%
3.71%
3.89%
3.95%
4.25%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
Portugal
France
Spain
Italy
Australia
Canada
England
USA
0.20%
0.75%
1.94%
2.23%
2.26%
2.61%
3.06%
3.17%
3.45%
3.64%
3.85%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
Portugal
France
Spain
Italy
Canada
England
Australia
USA
0.61%
0.65%
2.02%
2.56%
2.63%
2.98%
3.11%
3.53%
3.69%
3.88%
3.96%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Canada
England
Italy
USA
Australia
17 Economic and Market Update
ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) 1-5Yr Non-Callable Agency (GVPB) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC) Source: ICE BofAML Indices
12/31/2023
Current Spread is 1 Current Spread is 57
-20
0 20
40 Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr Agency vs Treasury
0 50
100
150
200
250
Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury
18 Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
12/31/2023
Current Spread is 79 Current Spread is 96
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23 Basis Points
Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
Nov-09Nov-10Nov-11Nov-12Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23 Basis Points
Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury
19 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
-17.6
-5.4
-3.1
1.4 2.5
4.2 4.5
6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2
10.7 11.1 11.5 11.6 11.6
12.9 13.1
14.6 15.1
16.3 18.2
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0 5
10 15
20 25
Percent
Selected Sector Quarterly Total Returns
20 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
12/31/2023
-9.8
-4.9
2.8 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.7 6.4
9.0 9.3
11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0
16.0 16.1 16.4 18.4
26.2 54.9
(20)
(10)
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 Percent
Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns
21 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, Meeder Public Funds
12/31/2023
3.50 3.70
3.90 4.10
4.30 4.50
4.70 4.90
5.10 9/30/2310/3/2310/6/2310/9/23
10/12/2310/15/2310/18/2310/21/2310/24/2310/27/2310/30/23 11/2/2311/5/2311/8/23
11/11/2311/14/2311/17/2311/20/2311/23/2311/26/2311/29/23 12/2/2312/5/2312/8/23
12/11/2312/14/2312/17/2312/20/2312/23/2312/26/2312/29/23 Percent
5 Year Treasury Note Yield
Treasury Yields Rise
From Multimonth
Lows On Poor 7-Year
Auction
September Headline CPI Up
0.4% MoM, And Steady At
3.7% YoY Fed Members Are Reluctant To Declare End
Of Rate Increases, Yet Hawkish Fed
Minutes Fail To Boost Treasury Yields
Interest Rate Traders Price In
An Almost 84% Chance Of
25bps Cut In March
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
Drops Below 4% For First Time
Since August As Markets Price In
Fed Rate Cuts
Market Prices In A 96.8% Probability
That The Fed Will Leave Interest
Rates Unchanged At December 13
Meeting
Treasury Yields Fall
On Bets The Fed Is
Done Hiking
Treasury Yields Fall To FiveWeek Lows After Job Growth Slows More Than Expected
In October
Q3 GDP Up 4.9%,
Strongest Since
Q4 2021
US Hiring Surges In
September +336k,
Unemployment
Unchanged At 3.8%
22 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, Meeder Public Funds
12/31/2023
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
9/30/2310/3/2310/6/2310/9/23
10/12/2310/15/2310/18/2310/21/2310/24/2310/27/2310/30/23 11/2/2311/5/2311/8/23
11/11/2311/14/2311/17/2311/20/2311/23/2311/26/2311/29/23 12/2/2312/5/2312/8/23
12/11/2312/14/2312/17/2312/20/2312/23/2312/26/2312/29/23 Dow Jones Industrial Average
Stocks End 2023 Up 24% For
The Year As Resilient
Economy Energizes
Investors
Mike Johnson
Elected Speaker Of
The House After
22 Days
Fed Unanimously
Votes To Hold Rates
Steady
Dow And S&P Hit Highest Level
Since 2022 After November CPI
Comes In At 3.1% YoY
Global Stocks Record Best
Month In Three Years On
Interest Rate Cut Hopes
US Inflation Falls More
Than Expected To 3.2%
YoY In October
Stocks Fall As Fed Chair
Powell Says More Rate
Hikes Are Possible
Fed Decides To Hold
Interest Rates Steady
Core CPI Falls To
4.1% YoY
September Payrolls And Revisions
Exceed Expectations, +500k In Two
Months
Kevin McCarthy
Removed As
Speaker Of The
House
23 Disclosure
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