Quarterly Economic and Market Update
March 2024
Economic and Market Update
*Estimates for the current quarter/month, some data are lagged Sources: Meeder Public Funds and Bloomberg 3/31/2024
Item 3/31/2024 12/31/2023 Change
U.S. Payrolls Monthly Change 303,000 290,000 13,000
Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.7% 0.1%
Labor Force Participation 62.7% 62.5% 0.2%
Effective Fed Funds Rate 5.33% 5.33% 0.00%
2 Year T-Note 4.62% 4.25% 0.37%
3 Month T-Bill 5.37% 5.34% 0.03%
3 Year T-Note 4.41% 4.01% 0.40%
5 Year T-Note 4.21% 3.85% 0.37%
10 Year T-Note 4.20% 3.88% 0.32%
U.S. Fed Debt Avg Yield* 3.26% 3.17% 0.09%
30 Year Mortgage Rate 7.24% 5.83% 1.41%
1-5 Yr Agency Spread 0.04% 0.01% 0.03%
1-5 Yr A-AAA Corporate Spread 0.50% 0.57% (0.07%)
Dow Jones 39,807 37,690 5.6%
S&P 500 5,254 4,770 10.2%
Consumer Price Index YOY* 3.0% 3.4% (0.4%)
U.S. Avg Regular Unleaded $3.54 $3.11 $0.43
Retail Sales YOY* 2.8% 5.0% (2.2%)
Case-Shiller Home Prices YOY* 6.6% 6.2% 0.4%
Consumer Confidence 106.7 108.0 (1.3)
Gold (per ounce) $2,229.87 $2,062.98 $166.89
Dollar Index 104.55 101.33 3.21
2 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
3/31/2024
3/31/2024
2.5 1.6
0.7 2.3
1.3 2.9
2.2 2.0
2.3 3.2
4.6 3.3
2.1 2.5
0.6 2.2
3.4 4.6
2.6 -5.3
-28.0
34.8 4.2
5.2 6.2
3.3 7.0
-2.0
-0.6
2.7 2.6
2.2 2.1
4.9 3.4
2.0 1.4
1.2 1.5
-40
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024 Percent
U.S. GDP (Quarter over Quarter Annualized)*
Estimates
3 Economic and Market Update
* Real Rate (Inflation Adjusted)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3/31/2024
Estimate: Bloomberg's Survey of Economists
3/31/2024
8.7 8.0
4.1 4.7
-0.6
7.1 2.12.1
-0.7
6.9 2.62.6
6.1 4.4
5.8 6.5
6.6 2.7
4.9 3.1
0.2 3.3
5.3 5.6
-0.5
-0.2
5.4 4.6
5.5 3.2
-0.3
2.5 -1.8
4.6 7.2
4.2 3.53.5
4.2 3.7
1.9 -0.1
3.5 2.8
4.0 2.7
3.8 4.4
4.5 4.8
4.1 1.0
1.7 2.8
3.8 3.5
2.8 2.0
0.1 -2.6
2.7 1.6
2.3 2.1
2.5 2.9
1.8 2.5
3.0 2.5
-2.2
5.8 1.9
2.5 2.2
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 19501952195419561958196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024 Percent
U.S. Annual GDP *
1950s 4.2% 1960s 4.5% 1970s 3.3% 1980s 3.2% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 1.9% 2010s 2.3% 4 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12 Month Average Job Change 243,917
3/31/2024
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls Change
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 15.0
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Millions
U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls YOY Change
5 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3/31/2024
2 7
12 17
22 27
32 Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
Percent
Unemployment Rates
U.S.A Nevada California Idaho Washington Hawaii Oregon Utah 6 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3/31/2024
128
130
132
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
148
150
152
154
156
158
160
Mar-14
Oct-14
May-15
Dec-15
Jul-16
Feb-17Sep-17
Apr-18
Nov-18
Jun-19
Jan-20
Aug-20
Mar-21
Oct-21
May-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Feb-24
Millions
U.S. Number of Employed
Full-Time and Part-Time
60.0 60.5
61.0 61.5
62.0 62.5
63.0 63.5
Mar-14
Oct-14
May-15
Dec-15
Jul-16
Feb-17Sep-17
Apr-18
Nov-18
Jun-19
Jan-20
Aug-20
Mar-21
Oct-21
May-22
Dec-22
Jul-23
Feb-24
Percent
U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate
7 Economic and Market Update
Source: Department of Labor and Bloomberg
3/31/2024
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims is the actual number of people who have filed for Unemployment benefits for the first time. The following five eligibility criteria must be met in order to file for unemployment benefits: 1. Meet the requirements of time worked during a 1 year period (full time or not). 2. Become unemployed through no fault of your own (cannot be fired). 3. Must be able to work; no physical or mental holdbacks. 4. Must be available for work. 5. Must be actively seeking work.
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 Millions
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
(4 Week Moving Average)
8 Economic and Market Update
*Real: Inflation Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Source: Conference Board
3/31/2024
-30
-20
-10
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Percent
U.S. Real* Retail Sales YOY % Change
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
110
120
130
140
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Index Value
U.S. Consumer Confidence
9 Economic and Market Update
CPIX: Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy PCEC: Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis 3/31/2024
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 9.0
10.0 Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Percent
CPI and CPIX YOY % Change
CPI CPIX
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 5.0
6.0 7.0
8.0 Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Percent
PCE and PCEC YOY % Change
PCE PCEC
10 Economic and Market Update
Sources: New (U.S. Census Bureau),Existing (National Assoc. of Realtors) Source: Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
3/31/2024
-4
-2
0 2
4 6
8 10
12 14
16 18
20 22
24 Oct-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17
Apr-18
Sep-18Feb-19
Jul-19
Dec-19
May-20
Oct-20
Mar-21
Aug-21
Jan-22
Jun-22
Nov-22
Apr-23
Sep-23
YOY Percent
Case-Shiller 20 City U.S. Home Price Index
YOY % Increase
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
6.0 6.5
7.0 Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
New-Thousands
Existing-Millions
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
Existing-Left
New-Right
11 Economic and Market Update
Source: U.S. Treasury
3/31/2024
$12
$13
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
$31
$32
$33
$34
$35
$36
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Trillions
U.S. Federal Debt Outstanding
1.3 1.8
2.3 2.8
3.3 3.8
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
Mar-24
Percent
U.S. Treasury Interest Bearing Debt Avg Rate
12 Economic and Market Update
Fed Funds Anticipated Rate from the January 31, 2024 FOMC Meeting Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
2.00 2.50
3.00 3.50
4.00 4.50
5.00 5.50
Mar-2024
Apr-2024
May-2024
Jun-2024
Jul-2024
Aug-2024
Sep-2024
Oct-2024
Nov-2024
Dec-2024
Jan-2025
Feb-2025
Mar-2025
Apr-2025
May-2025
Jun-2025
Jul-2025
Aug-2025
Sep-2025
Oct-2025
Nov-2025
Dec-2025
Jan-2026
Feb-2026
Mar-2026
Apr-2026
May-2026
Jun-2026
Jul-2026
Aug-2026
Sep-2026
Oct-2026
Nov-2026
Dec-2026
Jan-2027
Feb-2027
Mar-2027
Apr-2027
Percent
Fed Funds Futures Fed's Anticipated Rates
Fed Funds Futures
13 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
Figures may not total due to rounding
3M
Maturity
2Y 4.62 4.25 0.37
1Y 5.03 4.77 0.26
6M 5.32 5.26 0.07
5.37 5.34 0.03
4.20 3.88 0.32
3/29/24 12/29/23 Change
3/31/2024
3Y 4.41 4.01 0.40
30Y 4.34 4.03 0.32
5Y 4.21 3.85 0.37
10Y
3.0 3.5
4.0 4.5
5.0 5.5
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Yr 5Y 10Y 30Y
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Change
3/29/24
12/29/23
0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
40 45
3M6M
1Y2Y
3Yr
5Y
10Y30Y
Basis Points
Basis Point Change
14 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
5.50 5.75
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 3M and 1Y
1Y
3M
0.00 0.25
0.50 0.75
1.00 1.25
1.50 1.75
2.00 2.25
2.50 2.75
3.00 3.25
3.50 3.75
4.00 4.25
4.50 4.75
5.00 5.25
5.50 Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields: 2Y and 5Y
5Y
2Y
15 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
0 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17
18 19
20 21
Jan-54Jan-56Jan-58Jan-60Jan-62Jan-64Jan-66Jan-68Jan-70Jan-72Jan-74Jan-76Jan-78Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-24 Percent
U.S. Treasury Yields 2Yr and 5Yr - Fed Funds Target Rate 5Yr
2Yr
Fed Funds
16 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
Global Treasury Rates
2 Year Yields 5 Year Yields 10 Year Yields
0.19%
0.85%
2.72%
2.83%
2.85%
3.01%
3.42%
3.76%
4.16%
4.18%
4.62%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Portugal
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
Australia
England
Canada
USA
0.35%
0.69%
2.32%
2.58%
2.65%
2.83%
3.22%
3.53%
3.61%
3.82%
4.21%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
Japan
Switzlnd
Germany
Portugal
France
Spain
Italy
Canada
Australia
England
USA
0.63%
0.71%
2.30%
2.81%
2.99%
3.16%
3.47%
3.68%
3.93%
3.96%
4.20%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Switzlnd
Japan
Germany
France
Portugal
Spain
Canada
Italy
England
Australia
USA
17 Economic and Market Update
ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) 1-5Yr Non-Callable Agency (GVPB) Corporate A-AAA Excluding Yankee (CVAC) Source: ICE BofAML Indices
3/31/2024
Current Spread is 4 Current Spread is 50
-20
0 20
40 Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-24 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr Agency vs Treasury
0 50
100
150
200
250
Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-24 Basis Points
Spread: 1-5Yr A-AAA Corporate vs Treasury
18 Economic and Market Update
*ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) *ICE BofAML Index (option adjusted spread vs. Treasury) AAA Rated ABS (R0A1) CMO Agency 0-3Yr PAC (CM1P)
Source: ICE BofAML Indices
3/31/2024
Current Spread is 64 Current Spread is 82
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-24 Basis Points
Spread: AAA Asset Backed vs Treasury
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-24 Basis Points
Spread: 0-3Yr Agency CMO vs Treasury
19 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
-3.7
-1.3 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1
0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4
4.7 4.7
6.0 6.0
7.6 8.6
9.9 10.4
18.1 (5)
0 5
10 15
20 Percent
Selected Sector Monthly Total Returns
20 Economic and Market Update
Source: Bloomberg
3/31/2024
-7.8
-1.6 -1.6
0.1 1.6 2.8
5.0 5.1
7.2 8.3 8.6 9.6 9.7
12.4 15.2 15.9 17.4 18.5
21.9 23.2
29.6 39.3
(20)
(10)
0 10
20 30
40 50
Percent
Selected Sector Year-Over-Year Total Returns
21 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, Meeder Public Funds
3/31/2024
3.70 3.80
3.90 4.00
4.10 4.20
4.30 4.40
12/31/23
1/3/241/6/241/9/24
1/12/241/15/241/18/241/21/241/24/241/27/241/30/24
2/2/242/5/242/8/24
2/11/242/14/242/17/242/20/242/23/242/26/242/29/24
3/3/243/6/243/9/24
3/12/243/15/243/18/243/21/243/24/243/27/243/30/24
Percent
5 Year Treasury Note Yield
Fed Chair Powell
Expects The Federal
Reserve To Cut Rates
This Year
Treasury Yields End Month
Higher As Investors Push Rate
Cut Forecasts Out To June
Weekly Initial Jobless-Benefit
Claims Fall To Five-Week Low,
Signaling That The Labor Market
Remains Strong
January CPI YoY At 3.1%,
Higher Than Expected
ISM Services Index Beats
Estimates, Further
Lowering Odds Of March
Rate Cut
Stronger-Than-Anticipated January
Employment Data Strengthens Case
For Fed To Defer Rate Cuts PIMCO Believes US Yields
May Fall Further As Fed Rate
Cut Likely In June
Dec Retail Sales
Unexpectedly
Jump 0.6%
Dec YoY CPI Higher
Than Expected At
3.4%
US Adds 216,000
New Jobs In Dec,
Beating
Expectations
February CPI YoY At
3.2%, Higher Than
Expected
The Fed Leaves Rates
Unchanged, but Leaves
Three Quarter-Point Rate
Cuts In Play For This Year
22 Economic and Market Update
Sources: Bloomberg, Meeder Public Funds
3/31/2024
37,000
37,500
38,000
38,500
39,000
39,500
40,000
12/31/23
1/3/241/6/241/9/24
1/12/241/15/241/18/241/21/241/24/241/27/241/30/24
2/2/242/5/242/8/24
2/11/242/14/242/17/242/20/242/23/242/26/242/29/24
3/3/243/6/243/9/24
3/12/243/15/243/18/243/21/243/24/243/27/243/30/24
Dow Jones Industrial Average
All Three Leading Stock Indexes
Finish At Record After Fed
Officials Sustain Their Outlook
For Interest Rate Cuts This Year
Stocks Rise Even
Though Inflation Is
Higher-ThanExpected
Stocks Increase After
Powell Lifts Hopes For
Rate Cuts
Record Jump In Nvidia Turbocharges Excitment About
Artificial Intelligence, And Powers Major Indexes On
Three Continents To All-Time Highs
Higher-Than-Expected
January Inflation Sends
Stocks Tumbling
Fed Chair Powell Indicates That
Central Bank Officials Aren't In A
Rush To Lower Interest Rates
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, And
Powell Pushes Back On March Cut
Strong Retail Sales Data Report
Causes Investors To Scale Back
Hopes For Sharp Rate Cuts
Stocks Finish Flat After Dec
CPI Shows Inflation Rose
More Than Expected
US Stocks Post Material Loss After
Fed Minutes Note "Unusually
Elevated Degree Of Uncertainty"
About Policy Path
23 Disclosure
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