1 Revised Security Fund Analysis with Strategic Economics Home Sales Prices
Assumptions
Use homes sales prices from the Strategic Economics study done for the Point Molate Alliance and September 8, 2020
These home sales price assumptions are significantly lower than those assumed by BAE in their June 29, 2020 study and by Integra in their February 7, 2022 study Use the same fiscal model prepared by EPS and refined by BAE, but with the Strategic Economics homes sales prices
Keep the “Security Fund” proposed fiscal impact mitigation measure in the analysis Analyze 7 year, 15 year and 30 year build out scenarios ATTACHMENT 5
2 Comparing the Projected Homes Sales Price for Point Molate Consultant
EPS
Study/BAE
review
Strategic
Economics Integra
Date of study 6/29/20 9/8/20 2/7/22
Product Type
Single family 1,400,000 1,088,200 1,800,000 Low rise townhomes 1,175,000 652,700 1,300,000 Mid rise condo's 1,250,000 521,000 1,350,000 Low rise apartments 400,000 400,000 400,000 Mid rise apartments 450,000 450,000 450,000 ATTACHMENT 5
3 How the Fiscal Security Fund Works:
7 Year Build Out (SunCal scenario and Strategic Economics Home Sales Prices)
Cross‐over in FY 2030
207 units per year
Any negative fiscal impact is fully mitigated during build out, with potential release of the Fiscal Security Fund in FY 2030 Security Fund is used to pay back the General Fund for any negative fiscal impact $‐
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Millions
Ending Fund Balance (FY)
$‐
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Total Inflows Total Outflows
Millions
Fiscal Security Fund:
Cumulative Inflows vs. Outflows
Property Transfer Tax on SunCal DDA Payment and Inter‐Developer Land Sales CFD Special Fiscal Impact Tax on SunCal and Other Developer Property Initial Deposit from SunCal DDA Payment
Draws to Mitigate Adverse Fiscal Impact
ATTACHMENT 5
4 How the Fiscal Security Fund Works:
15 Year Build Out (more conservative scenario and Strategic Economics Home Sales Prices)
Cross‐over in FY 2039
97 units per year
Fiscal impact is fully mitigated during build out, with potential release of the Fiscal Security Fund in FY 2039 Security Fund is used to pay back General Fund for any negative fiscal impact $‐
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
Millions
Ending Fund Balance (FY)
$‐
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
Total Inflows Total Outflows
Millions
Fiscal Security Fund:
Cumulative Inflows vs. Outflows
Property Transfer Tax on SunCal DDA Payment and Inter‐Developer Land Sales CFD Special Fiscal Impact Tax on SunCal and Other Developer Property Initial Deposit from SunCal DDA Payment
Draws to Mitigate Adverse Fiscal Impact
ATTACHMENT 5
5 How the Fiscal Security Fund Works:
30 Year Build Out (very conservative scenario and Strategic Economics Home Sales Prices)
Cross‐over in FY 2050
48 units per year
Fiscal impact is not mitigated during build out, with potential release of the Fiscal Security Fund in FY 2039 Security Fund is fully depleted by FY 2034, resulting in negative impact to General Fund through FY 2049 $(25)
$(20)
$(15)
$(10)
$(5)
$‐
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Millions
Ending Fund Balance (FY)
$‐
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Total Inflows Total Outflows
Millions
Fiscal Security Fund:
Cumulative Inflows vs. Outflows
Property Transfer Tax on SunCal DDA Payment and Inter‐Developer Land Sales CFD Special Fiscal Impact Tax on SunCal and Other Developer Property Initial Deposit from SunCal DDA Payment
Draws to Mitigate Adverse Fiscal Impact
ATTACHMENT 5
6 Conclusion: The Combination of the Strategic Economics Homes Sales Prices and a 30 Year Build Out Results in Negative Fiscal Impact Use of Strategic Economics home sales prices with 7 year and 15 year build results in positive fiscal impact
Use of Strategic Economics home sales prices with a 30 year build out results in negative fiscal impact
ATTACHMENT 5