Sea Level Rise Adaptation
in San Francisco Bay
Richmond City Council
June 27, 2023
Jessica Fain, Director of Planning
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development
Commission
BCDC became the first coastal
management agency in the
nation in 1965
Photo credit: KQED Saving the Bay (2011)
The Bay in 1849
Bay fill in 1965
Projected 2020
(in 1965)
Sea level rise
1 foot by 2050
Sea level rise
6 feet by…
BCDC’s past and future
Background
2/3 of
California’s sea
level rise
impacts will be
felt in the Bay
Area
ALREADY SEEN: + 8 inches SLR
PROJECTED BY 2050: + 12 to 32 inches
END OF CENTURY: 10+ feet?
Photo: Levee Breach near Highway 37 (February 26, 2019) Photo courtesy of Ghilotti Construction Company
Bay Adapt
• Temporary Flooding
• Permanent Inundation
• Shoreline Erosion
• Groundwater Rise
No matter
where you live,
shoreline
flooding will
impact
everyone in the
Bay Area
What’s at risk?
(40-100 years)
Source: Adapting to Rising Tides Bay Area (2020)
Bay Adapt
5 6
7 A Rising Bay
A regional
problem
requires
regional
solutions (2)
Why?
• Flooding knows no boundaries
• Frontline communities: Most impacted and
fewest resources
• Near-term loss of wetlands
• Patchwork of protective actions
• Inconsistent application of science
• Competition not collaboration for limited funding
• No way to measure collective progress
Bay Adapt
What is Bay
Adapt?
A regional, consensus-driven strategy
that lays out the actions necessary to
adapt the Bay Area to rising sea level to
protect people and the natural and built
environment
Bay Adapt
Guiding Principles
Bay Adapt
Bay Adapt Joint Platform
Context
5 Categories
9 Actions
21 Tasks
1 Bay Strategy
Bay Adapt Joint Platform
Action 6: Figure out how to fund adaptation
Task 6.1: Expand understanding of the financial costs and revenues associated with regional adaptation.
Task 6.2: Establish a framework for funding plans and projects. Task 6.3: Help cities and counties expand ways to fund adaptation planning projects.
Context
Funding and Investment Framework
Sea Level Rise Funding
and Investment
Framework
Local Adaptation Projects and Study
Areas1
Local Adaptation Projects
Local Study Areas
192 projects in original inventory
132 projects updated with stakeholder input
Includes 47 new projects added
Potential Protective Infrastructure
Needs2
Placeholder Adaptation Needs
1 Includes projects identified in BCDC’s Shoreline Adaptation Project Map, a regional project inventory hosted through EcoAtlas: https://www.ecoatlas.org/groups/303 2 Placeholder needs determined by assuming the protection of the shoreline in place. 13 Funding
Adaptation Needs
$110 billion1
Estimated cost of sea level rise adaptation through 2050 (in Year of Expenditure dollars)
• $52 billion: Estimated cost for known or planned projects • $54 billion: Estimated placeholder cost for areas with adaptation needs
• $3 billion: Estimated additional sediment management needs3 1 In year of expenditure (YOE) dollars. 2 In 2022 dollars. 3Estimate developed by BCDC and SFEI analysis. 14 $230+billion2
Estimated value of a subset of assets at risk through 2050 The cost of inaction is far higher than the cost of adaptation; We stand to lose much more if we do not act
Cost of Inaction
What is the regional estimate to fund adaptation?
Adaptation Needs
Additional Findings
• Most planned projects are hybrid, representing a focus on multiple benefits.
• Alameda and Marin are estimated to have the highest
adaptation costs.
• Significant implementation gaps are present across the region; the largest gaps are in Alameda, Contra Costa,
and Marin2.
Escalated Regional Cost
by Project Type1
$110 billion (B)
1Values represented in Year of Expenditure dollars; Regional cost includes $3B in additional sediment need.
2Locally identified projects do not account for studies or plans without defined interventions.
Funding
Inventory
City of Richmond Highlights
What do these findings mean to your city’s planning?
Richmond Projects (by estimated cost)
ouR Home - Resilient By Design
Terminal One Development & Waterfront
Park
North Richmond Shoreline Living Levee
Point Molate Regional Shoreline -
Restoration and Public Access Project
Miller Knox Regional Shoreline - Lagoon
and Marsh Restoration
Lower Wildcat Creek
Contra Costa
County Total
$13b
North Richmond Living Levee
Ecotone Levees; Restoration
Estimated Median Cost:
$6.26 million (2022)
Status: Planning/Scoping
Forecasting Existing Public
Revenues
Updated Revenue Forecast (2022-2050)
Sea Level
Rise
Adaptation
Revenue
($ in billions
YOE)
Plan Bay Area 2050
Revenue Estimate
Framework
Revenue Estimate
$3.2 billion
$5.5 billion
US ACE
FEMA
Committed
Local Bonds
Measure AA
Other State & Federal
IIJA & IRA
’21, ‘22 CA Budget
17 Funding
Key Finding: Regional and/or local
measures will not be capable of closing
the funding gap. Additional funding from
federal and/or state sources will also be
necessary.
Parcel Tax
County & Regional
Ad Valorem Property Tax/GO Bond
Assessment District District-based (sub-local)
Case Studies
Next Steps
What’s Next After the Framework?
1. Prioritize sea level rise investments through upcoming regional planning efforts by MTC/ABAG and BCDC, determining which areas require early action.
2. Explore opportunities to advance resilience through planned housing and transportation ballot measures. To the extent possible, integrate policies and programs to support sea level rise adaptation.
3. Collect and maintain project data through supporting the development of BCDC’s Shoreline Adaptation Project Mapping Program.
4. Accelerate advocacy efforts. Use updated data to pursue a larger share of state and federal dollars to protect people, places, and the environment.
5. Define lead roles to fund plans and projects. There is no one clear agency tasked with securing and distributing funding, which means that this is not occurring in a timely and organized manner.
6. Support local and private efforts to develop funding and financing tools.
Bay Adapt What’s Next?
• Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan: Vision, Guidelines & Funding
• Community Capacity Building
• Permitting Improvements
• Coordination, Communication and Tracking
What’s Next
• Learn more and sign up for our newsletter at www.bayadapt.org • Be a champion for adaptation in your jurisdictions
• Tell us about plans and projects you want to develop or fund • Introduce us to CBOs who’d want to work with us
• Let us know if you’d like to host a presentation, workshop, field trip, or other event What’s Next
Stay Involved
Stay involved
www.bayadapt.org