Riverside County Transportation Commission
ZEB Implementation & Rollout Plan Project
1 Zero-Emission Transition Financial Analysis:
Riverside Connect
About CTE
WHO WE ARE
501(c)(3) nonprofit engineering and planning firm
OUR MISSION
Improve the health of our climate and communities by bringing people together to develop and commercialize clean, efficient, and sustainable transportation technologies
PORTFOLIO
$900 million
• Research, demonstration, deployment
• 100 Active Projects totaling over $400 million
OUR FOCUS
Zero-Emission Transportation Technologies
NATIONAL PRESENCE
Atlanta, Berkeley, Los Angeles, St. Paul
Introduction
Today’s Objective is to review the financial projections for ZEB technology transition scenarios including:
• Fleet Procurements and Capital Cost
• Fuel Costs
• Maintenance Costs
• Preliminary Infrastructure Projects & Costs
• Total Cost of Ownership
Zero Emission Buses —What’s
Different?
• Propulsion System
– Traction Motor
instead of engine
• Energy Storage System
– Battery instead of
fuel tank
– Hydrogen storage
tanks
• HVAC
– No “free” heat
– Electric heater
• Time to “Re-fuel”
– FCEB: 10 minutes
– BEB: ~3 hours
Fleet Capital Cost
Assessment
5 CARB Innovative Clean Transit
Regulation
• 100% ZEB Fleet by 2040 is not a mandate, but a goal
• There is only a purchasing rule:
6 Starting January 1 ZEB Percentage of
Total New Bus
Purchases
2026 25%
2027 25%
2028 25%
2029 100%
• Small CA Transit Agencies (<100 buses) are required to submit a board- approved ZEB Rollout Plan by July 1, 2023.
• Riverside Connect has 0 ZEB bonus credits.
Service Assessment & Feasibility
Assumptions
• Riverside Connect operates only demand response service. • All demand response service is performed by 25-26ft cutaways that will require midday or opportunity-charging at the depot.
– Electrified cutaway service implies required schedule modifications. – On-route charging (pantograph or inductive) has not yet been demonstrated for this vehicle size.
• This service is performed by a fleet of 25’ CNG cutaways. These are modeled as generic van-style cutaway ZEBs.
– These vehicles are most analogous to one another based on passenger loading and on-board energy.
7May 17, 2023
Fleet Assessment Overview &
Assumptions
• Procurements cycles are based on the FTA minimum service life terms of the vehicle types. – 25-26ft cutaways are replaced on a 7 year cycle per the service life of larger cutaways. • Vehicles prices for legacy fueled vehicles are based on agency reporting and ZEV pricing is based on the 2022 CA State Contract
– A 7.75% sales tax is included in the capital price of the vehicle. – An inflation rate of 2% is applied year over year for the whole transition period. • Riverside Connect proceeds with a zero-emission vehicle purchase per their planned procurement in 2023 and subsequently, procures ZEVs as required by the ICT procurement schedule. – 25% of total annual procurement number must be ZEV, if 25% of the total is less than .5, no ZEVs must be purchased. The first ZEB purchase is required in 2026. 8 Bus Procurement Timeline & Annual Costs
Baseline
9 Fleet Composition
Baseline
10 Bus Procurement Timeline & Annual Costs
BEB
11 Fleet Composition
BEB
12 Bus Procurement Timeline & Annual Costs
Mixed Fleet
13 Fleet Composition
Mixed Fleet
14 Bus Procurement Timeline & Annual Costs
FCEB
15 Fleet Composition
FCEB
16 Comparative Fleet Capital Costs
Entire Transition Period, All Scenarios
17 Fuel Cost Analysis
18 Fuel Cost Assumptions
19 Fuel Type Cost per unit Avg. Cost per Mile
for uniform propulsion fleet for
18-year period
Notes
CNG $1.57/GGE • $0.20/mile • Average of agency-reported fuel prices across the entire fleet
H2 $8.68/kg • $0.66/mile
• Average of 2022 prices for CA hydrogen fuel
for transit end-users contractual agreements.
Price contains station O&M costs.
Electricity Per SCE’s
TOU-EV-9 • $0.51/mile • See next slide
• Assumes no change to service provided and fleet mileage • All costs are based on 2021 dollars, with EIA inflation for transportation fuels projected through 2040
Assumptions for Electricity Costs
• Electricity costs based on SCE’s TOU-EV-9, provided that Riverside Public Utilities doesn’t have an EV-specific rate schedule (applicable to commercial/business customers) that would be applicable
– 20% of the agency’s DAR requirements can be satisfied with overnight depot charging – 80% of the agency’s DAR requirements can be satisfied with opportunity depot charging 20 *Commencing March 1, 2019, no Demand Charge shall apply to Customers receiving (T) service under this Schedule. **Phase-In of Demand Charge shall occur as determined and authorized by the (T) Commission in SCE’s next GRC Phase 2 application or any Commission proceeding | related to transportation electrification.
Annual Fuel Consumption
Baseline
21 Annual Fuel Consumption Costs
Baseline
22 • The average fuel cost per mile for all fuels utilized in the course of the transition period for this scenario is $0.21/mile.
Annual Fuel Consumption
BEB
23 Annual Fuel Consumption Costs
BEB
24 • The average fuel cost per mile for all fuels utilized in the course of the transition period for this scenario is $0.35/mile
Annual Fuel Consumption
Mixed Fleet
25 Annual Fuel Consumption Costs
Mixed Fleet
26 • The average fuel cost per mile for all fuels utilized in the course of the transition period for this scenario is $0.41/mile
Annual Fuel Consumption
FCEB
27 Annual Fuel Consumption Costs
FCEB
28 • The average fuel cost per mile for all fuels utilized in the course of the transition period for this scenario is $0.44/mile
Comparative Annual Fuel Costs
For Transitioned Fleet 2040, All Scenarios
29 Maintenance Cost
Analysis
30 Maintenance Cost Assumptions
Annual Vehicle Parts & Labor
• Basic calculation framework is established by NREL reports of per-mile costs for standard buses.
• Calculation items based on mileage-weighted averages from the NREL study data, adjusted to year 2021 dollars.
• Applied a common service life and curb weight for each operator for each class of vehicle.
• This maintenance assessment includes only vehicle maintenance costs for the transition. • Hydrogen and CNG infrastructure maintenance is included in the fuel price in the fuel assessment. • Charger maintenance is included in the infrastructure assessment. • Many other operational and administrative costs are not included. • Inflation is applied to the costs per mile at 3% per year per the CPI Index.
Maintenance Costs Composition
32May 17, 2023
NREL Category and ATA VMRS Items CNG Cost
per Mile
BEB Cost
per Mile
Exhaust System Repairs (43) $0.00706 $0.00000
Fuel System Repairs (44) $0.01909 $0.00000
Power Plant Repairs (45) $0.04035 $0.00694
Electric Propulsion Repairs (46) $0.00000 $0.03376
Air Intake System Repairs (41) $0.00507 $0.00013
Cooling System Repairs (42) $0.02025 $0.01631
Hydraulic System Repairs (65) $0.00017 $0.00000
General Air System Repairs (10) $0.00658 $0.00472
Transmission Repairs (27) $0.00532 $0.01045
HVAC System Repairs (01) $0.01559 $0.01495
Axle, Wheel, and Driveshaft Repairs (11, 18,
22, 24) $0.00964 $0.01157
Electrical System Repairs (30, 31, 32, 33) $0.04318 $0.04318 Lighting System Repairs (34) $0.00692 $0.00692
Tire Repairs (17) $0.02918 $0.02918
NREL Category (with ATA VMRS codes)
Adjusted Model
Formulation
Brake System Repairs (13)
CNGs at $0.0014 per curb
weight ton-mile (CWTM).
BEBs were assumed to be
45% of CNGs based on ICT
Appendix G
Preventive Maintenance Inspections (101)
$1425/$1500 per vehicle
(cutaway/standard) plus
$0.000072 per CWTM
Car, Body, and Accessory Systems Repairs (02,
50, 71)
Replaced by a new
'Combined Mechanical'
category
Frame, Steering, and Suspension Repairs (14,
15, 16)
Replaced by a new
'Combined Mechanical'
category
Combined Mechanical (02, 11, 18, 22, 24, 50,
71) $0.0072 per CWTM
Maintenance Cost Assumptions
Annual Vehicle Maintenance Parts & Labor
33May 17, 2023
Legacy Vehicle Type Maintenance Cost
(Per Mile)
Gas Cutaway $ 0.35
CNG Cutaway $ 0.35
30’/35’/40’ CNG Bus $ 0.38
Zero-Emission Vehicle Type Maintenance Cost (Per Mile)
Battery Electric Cutaway $ 0.32
30’/35’/40’ Battery Electric Bus $ 0.34
Fuel Cell Electric Cutaway $ 0.51
30’/35’/40’ Fuel Cell Electric Bus $ 0.56
Maintenance Cost Assumptions
Capital Expenditure in Maintenance Parts & Labor
34May 17, 2023
Vehicle Type Overhaul
(FC/Transmission) Cost
Per vehicle life
Battery Warranty Cost
Per vehicle life
CNG Cutaway $0 $0
30’/35’/40’ CNG Bus $30,000 $0
Battery Electric Cutaway $0 $24,000
30’/35’ 40’ Battery Electric Bus $0 $75,000
30’/35’/40’ Fuel Cell Electric Bus $40,000 $17,000
Fuel Cell Electric Cutaway $0 $10,000
Annual Maintenance Costs
Baseline
35 Capital expenditure for vehicle battery warranties and fuel cell (if applicable) & CNG overhauls for the course of the transition is approx. $72K and covers the cost of this maintenance practice for 85 vehicles.
Annual Maintenance Costs
BEB
36 Capital expenditure for vehicle battery warranties and fuel cell (if applicable) & CNG overhauls for the course of the transition is approx. $1.56M and covers the cost of this maintenance practice for 85 vehicles.
Annual Maintenance Costs
Mixed Fleet
37 Capital expenditure for vehicle battery warranties and fuel cell (if applicable) & CNG overhauls for the course of the transition is approx. $1.13M and covers the cost of this maintenance practice for 85 vehicles.
Annual Maintenance Costs
FCEB
38 Capital expenditure for vehicle battery warranties and fuel cell (if applicable) & CNG overhauls for the course of the transition is approx. $664K and covers the cost of this maintenance practice for 85 vehicles.
Comparative Annual Maintenance Costs
Entire Transition Period, All Scenarios
39 Preliminary Facilities
Cost Analysis
40 Facilities Concept Assumptions
● No land acquisition costs are included in the project costs. ● Infrastructure for baseline is not included since it is a continuation of today’s operations. ● Assume 100% of buses will operate, so every bus has a dispenser. ● Assumes 2 dispensers per 150 kW charger and a 2 bus to 1 charger ratio ● Only one transit bus can charge at a time.
● Two cutaways can charge simultaneously at one charger, each charging at 75kW. ● Depot & Station MW capacity is assumed to start at 0. ● On-Route chargers assume each charger can serve 4 buses per hour to allow for each bus to have 15 minutes on the charger in any given hour.
● Each on-route charger has just one dispenser (assumed to be pantograph- usable only by transit buses). ● Costs are applied in the year prior to non-ZEBs are replaced with ZEBs requiring the infrastructure to represent the actual year of expenditure for the RCTC implementation plan. 41 Facilities Cost Assumptions
● Construction projects are inflated 5.4% per year per Caltrans Construction Index (CCI). ● Hydrogen fueling projects are determined based on annual consumptions and known fueling technologies. All operators fueling solutions are decided based on fuel consumption need and approximately right-sized.
● Hydrogen infrastructure maintenance and operations is covered in the price of fuel in the fuel assessment.
● Charger maintenance is included as a $3,000/per charger per year inflated at 3% per year. ● Infrastructure project pricing is determined through averages of recent CTE deployment projects as well as transit client procurement and industry product insights (proprietary). ● IBI Group will explore site assessments and infrastructure recommendations for each operator’s selected transition scenario further in tasks 4.3 & 4.4.
42 Annual Infrastructure Timeline and Costs
BEB
43 Annual Infrastructure Timeline and Costs
Independent Hydrogen Infrastructure Serving Mixed Fleet 44 Annual Infrastructure Timeline and Costs
Shared Hydrogen Infrastructure Serving Fuel Cell Fleet
45 Comparative Infrastructure Costs
Entire Transition Period, All Scenarios
46 Total Cost of
Ownership Analysis
47 Comparative Total Cost of Ownership
Entire Transition Period, All Scenarios
48 Other Considerations
– These analyses are based on the Existing Conditions Report published in October 2022. – Transition plans are living documents that are meant to be revisited as the market matures. – There are operational costs and impacts that may increase the need for personnel such as ZE project managers, operations staff, trainings, grants managers, which are not included in this analysis.
– Scheduling changes are not included in this assessment. Operators can review operational modifications that may simplify their transitions to ZEV. – Prices used in the analysis are a snapshot of today’s market, while they are evidence-based predictions, the hydrogen market is nascent and will likely see large pricing drops with increased supply and commercialization.
Other Considerations Continued
– While shared infrastructure offers cost savings, there is potential for increased deadhead with shared infrastructure.
– EV Rate Schedules do have end dates projected, so electricity prices are likely to rise. – Selecting a single technology can increase operational simplicity and cost savings. – Selecting multiple technologies does make a fleet more resilient to grid-down or fuel supply shortage scenarios.
Next Steps
– Meeting with Riverside Staff – February 7
– Staff Recommendations
– ICT Rollout Plan Approval – June 20
– Implementation Plan with Selected Transition(s) for all operators – October 11