Production Cost Modeling Study: SunZia-Pattern Wind PPA Assumptions Year Annual RA Price
2026 $14.00
System RA Value Month 2027 $12.00
Capacity 125.0 MW 1 0.3404 0.1538 $4.02 2028 $11.50
RA Price See RA Price >> 2 0.3619 0.1538 $2.75 2029 $11.00 FRAC Capacity Obligation 3 0.3965 0.1538 $3.78 2030 $10.00 Capacity 125.0 MW 4 0.3526 0.3077 $3.22 2031 $9.75
FRAC Obligation 80% 5 0.2594 0.6154 $3.04 2032 $9.50
FRAC Annual Value Adder $1.00 /kW-month 6 0.2178 1.2308 $0.98 2033 $9.25 MIC Cost 7 0.213 2.4615 $1.35 2034 $9.00
MIC Price $3.00 /kW-month 8 0.2259 2.4615 $3.53 2035 $9.00 Optimal MIC Factor 0.28 (@ $3 MIC) 9 0.2786 2.4615 $2.42 2036 $9.00 Optimal MIC Amount 35.0 MW 10 0.3269 1.2308 $4.11 2037 $9.00 Renewable Energy Credits 11 0.3399 0.6154 $10.54 2038 $9.00 REC Value $20.00 /MWh 12 0.3428 0.1538 $7.40 2039 $9.00 2040 $9.00
Books Generic 2041 $9.00
Date Intervals Annual
Peak Period Label 7x24
Study Portfolios SunZia Wind Proforma Report_8-23-2023 - Wind Portfolio Shapes Items SunZia Wind 125MW (contract)
Stats MEAN Sum Column = 1 >>> 111111
Value Column Labels
Row Labels windGen - Generation - WWINDTOTALCOST - WwindGrossRevenue - GrWINDNETREVENUE - N System RA
Value
Annual FRAC
Cost MIC Cost Congestion Cost REC Value Total Net Value 2026-01 257,865 15,342,983 15,336,586 -6,397 $4,970,000 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,151,263 $5,157,305 $6,509,645 2027-01 369,450 21,982,251 21,211,928 -770,322 $4,453,846 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $7,066,639 2028-01 369,450 21,982,251 19,001,217 -2,981,034 $4,268,269 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $4,670,350 2029-01 369,450 21,982,251 17,665,090 -4,317,161 $4,082,692 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $3,148,646 2030-01 369,450 21,982,251 18,091,279 -3,890,973 $3,711,538 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $3,203,681 2031-01 369,450 21,982,251 18,688,153 -3,294,098 $3,618,750 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $3,707,767 2032-01 369,450 21,982,251 19,588,591 -2,393,661 $3,525,962 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $4,515,416 2033-01 369,450 21,982,251 20,858,040 -1,124,211 $3,433,173 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $5,692,077 2034-01 369,450 21,982,251 22,031,598 49,347 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $6,772,847 2035-01 369,450 21,982,251 23,445,113 1,462,863 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $8,186,362 2036-01 369,450 21,982,251 25,050,858 3,068,607 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $9,792,106 2037-01 369,450 21,982,251 25,694,654 3,712,403 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $10,435,903 2038-01 369,450 21,982,251 25,250,588 3,268,337 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $9,991,836 2039-01 369,450 21,982,251 24,631,874 2,649,623 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $9,373,122 2040-01 369,450 21,982,251 23,485,083 1,502,832 $3,340,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$1,545,877 $7,388,992 $8,226,331 2041-01 111,584 6,639,267 6,851,097 211,830 $145,385 -$1,200,000 -$1,260,000 -$394,614 $2,231,687 -$265,713 Total 5,541,744 329,733,764 326,881,749 -2,852,015 55,592,308 -19,200,000 -20,160,000 -23,188,155 110,834,879 $101,027,016 $/MWh $59.50 $58.99 ($0.51) $10.03 ($3.46) ($3.64) ($4.18) $20.00 $18.23 Fair Market Value ($/MWh): $77.73
ELCC AZ/NM
Wind Factors
(2023)
System RA
Seasonal Pricing
Ratio
Congestion
Price (PV to
RVSD)