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1 RiversideCA.gov
2023 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN
City Council
June 11, 2024
Riverside Public Utilities
RiversideCA.gov
2 An IRP is used to help guide our future decision-making process as RPU plans to meet its forecasted annual peak and energy demand while systematically reducing its GHG emissions, using a combination of current and new supply-side and demand-side resources.
A well-developed IRP will:
1. Analyze and evaluate both supply-side and demand-side resources
2. Identify one or more “least-cost, least-risk” sol ution(s) for meeting future load serving needs
3. Address all CA SB 350 requirements and CEC specified topics
4. Propose environmentally sound / financially sustainable procurement strategies WHAT IS AN INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN (IRP)?
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3 1. Senate Bill 350 requires that POUs develop IRPs to achieve their share of the electric sector’s GHG emissions reduction target. IRPs must be updated, approved, and adopted on at least a 5-year cycle.
2. IRPs must address multiple topics specified in the CEC’s POU IRP Submission and Review Guidelines
a) Demand (Load) Forecasts
b) Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management Programs
c) Future Resource Procurement Plans (including future Capacity requirements) d) Current & Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions
e) Distributed Energy Resources (including DER Impacts on the Distribution System) f) Transportation Electrification
g) Retail Rates
h) Localized Air Pollutants and Disadvantaged Communities SB 350 IRP MANDATE
RiversideCA.gov
4 1. Identify and assess a cost-effective means for RPU to meet the 60% RPS target by 2030 and successfully achieve a zero-carbon portfolio by 2040. (Note: RPU is already on track to exceed its 60% by 2030 RPS target three years ahead of schedule.)
2. Identify and assess a cost-effective means for RPU to reduce its GHG emissions, such that the utility can meet or exceed its specified share of the electric sector’s 2030 GHG emission target. (Note: RPU is already on track to get below its 2030 GHG emission target on a Retail Sales basis.)
3. Address and adequately satisfy all other CEC-required topics as specified in the CEC’s IRP Submission and Review Guidelines.
2023 RPU IRP: PRIMARY GOALS
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5 1. 19 Chapters, 3 Appendices,
~ 330 pages.
2. Responsive to all CEC
requirements.
3. Produced internally by
Power Resources staff.
4. Incorporates added
analyses & discussions
pertinent to RPU’s long-range
planning efforts.
IRP: DOCUMENT OVERVIEW & STRUCTURE
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: RPU System Load & Peak Demand Forecasts
Chapter 3: RPU Generation & Transmission Resources
Chapter 4: RPU Existing Electric System
Chapter 5: Important Legislative & Regulatory Mandates & CAISO Initiatives
Chapter 6: Demand Side Management: Energy Efficiency, Fuel Substitution, and DR Resources
Chapter 7: Market Fundamentals
Chapter 8: Intermediate Term (Five‐Year Forward) Power
Resource Forecasts
Chapter 9: GHG Emission Targets & Forecasts
Chapter 10: Future Resource Adequacy Capacity Needs
RiversideCA.gov
6 1. 19 Chapters, 3 Appendices,
~ 330 pages.
2. Responsive to all CEC
requirements.
3. Produced internally by
Power Resources staff.
4. Incorporates added
analyses & discussions
pertinent to RPU’s long-range
planning efforts.
IRP: DOCUMENT OVERVIEW & STRUCTURE
Chapter 11: Modeling Assumptions for Current and Future Generation Resources
Chapter 12: Long Term Portfolio Analyses
Chapter 13: Distribution System Studies of Distributed Energy Resource Impacts
Chapter 14: Evaluating the Impact of Increasing Energy
Efficiency Program Targets
Chapter 15: Retail Rate Design
Chapter 16: Transportation Electrification
Chapter 17: Minimizing Localized Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Disadvantaged Communities
Chapter 18: Potential Future Studies
Chapter 19: Conclusion
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7 1. Background material & utility overview (Chs 2-4)
a) 2024-2045 energy & peak demand forecasts
b) Current generation and transmission re sources, & electric distribution system
2. Discuss critical legislative/regulatory mandates & CAISO stakeholder initiatives (Ch 5) a) CA Legislation & CARB/CEC/CPUC Regulatory Mandates
b) CAISO initiatives
3. Summarize and assess current EE/DSM programs (Ch 6 and Ch 14)
4. Quantify 5-7 year intermediate-term power resource forecasts (Chs 8 and 9) a) Primary resource portfolio metrics
b) Renewable energy forecasts and RPS mandates
c) GHG emission forecasts and mandates
d) Power resource budget forecasts
2023 IRP: ORGANIZATION
RiversideCA.gov
8 5. Quantify 20+ year long-term forecast (scenarios & impacts: Ch 7 and Chs 10-12) a) Projected load growth impacts and forward market prices b) Projected load-normalized portfolio cost (PC LN) impacts for future, low-carbon scenarios
c) Critical long-term budget impacts for the preferred scenarios d) Potential BESS replacement options for internal generation units
6. Assess DER impacts on RPU’s Distribution System (Ch 13) a) Individual analyses of 102 RPU circuits (feeders)
b) Simulated additions of EV loads and building electrification; simulated impacts of additional PV generation
c) Maximum DER loading established for each circuit, used to develop preliminary temporal and spatial DER impact assessments
2023 IRP: ORGANIZATION (CONT.)
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9 7. Examine & address additional CEC topics (Chs 15-17) and Potential Future Studies (Ch 18) a) RPU Rates
b) Transportation Electrification
c) Localized Air Pollution Impact s on Disadvantaged Communities d) Potential Future Studies
2023 IRP: ORGANIZATION (CONT.)
RiversideCA.gov
10 1. RPU is already on track to materially exceed its 60% by 2030 RPS target three years ahead of schedule (based on our current portfolio of assets).
2. RPU is already on track to get below its 2030 GHG emission target on a Retail Sales basis.
3. ~75% of load is naturally hedged via long-term contracts through 2027.
4. Sufficient carbon allowances to cove r all expected GHG emissions through 2030.
5. Post-COVID supply-chain issues and significantly increased costs for natural gas are driving up RPU’s power supply costs.
KEY FINDINGS: NEAR-TERM FORWARD FORECASTS
Most significant intermediate term risk(s): Costs for short-term (year-ahead) Resource Adequacy (RA) in the CAISO market have increased ~ 200% over the last three years.
RPU needs to acquire 2-3 longer-term RA contracts to mitigate this RA cost pressure on our power supply budget.
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11 1. RPU can meet current RPS
requirements through 2030
with its current portfolio of
renewable resources.
2. Beyond 2030, RPU will need
to procure new renewable
and/or carbon-free
resources to achieve 100%
renewable and carbon
neutrality milestone dates:
a. 2040 - Envision Riverside
2025 Strategic Plan
b. 2045 - SB 100
RPS PROGRESS
RiversideCA.gov
12 1. There are two types of GHG emissions discussed in this 2023 IRP:
a. 1 st Importer Emissions (RPU is directly responsible for these & must surrender CARB GHG auction instruments to abate)
b. Total Portfolio Emissions (estimated emissions for total Retail Sales, shown on Power Content Label)
2. Reducing RPU’s GHG emissions to achieve emission targets is a primary focus of this 2023 IRP
a. Two RPU GHG planning targets have been specified by CARB for RPU:
GHG EMISSION TARGETS
MT CO2-e
Emission ValueDescriptionGHG Planning Target
349,000Official RPU target38 MMT Sector Goal
275,000More aggressive GHG reduction scenario30 MMT Sector Goal 11 12
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13 1. RPU should get below its
official GHG target of 349,000
MT with its current resource
portfolio (on a Retail Sales
basis).
2. RPU can get below the more
aggressive GHG target of
275,000 MT by adding one
additional renewable resource
by 2030 (as contemplated in
our 2023 IRP).
GHG PROGRESS
RiversideCA.gov
14 1. Proposed new renewable/carbon-free resource contracts for 2030-2045.
2. Resource 1a & 1b were analyzed/compared to determine which would be the most cost effective for RPU’s portfolio.
CARBON-FREE ENERGY PROCUREMENT STRATEGY
Annual MWhCODNew Renewable/Carbon-free Resources
367,92020301a. 50 MW Baseload Geothermal Resource (84% CF) 367,92020301b. 120 MW Solar PV (35% CF) + 50 MW / 200 MWh BESS 394,200
473,040
157,680
2034
2038
2043
2. Baseload Resource Tranche (90% CF)
• 50 MW
• 60 MW
• 20 MW
229,95020373. 75 MW Solar PV (35% CF)
229,95020414. 75 MW Solar PV (35% CF)
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15 • Additionally, another replacement option studied for RERC has it switching to run on biogas starting January 1, 2035, through its assumed retirement on December 31, 2039.
SPRINGS & RERC REPLACEMENT STRATEGY
CODResource DescriptionNew Resource
202818 MW / 72 MWh BESSSprings 4-hr BESS I
203018 MW / 72 MWh BESSSprings 4-hr BESS II
2035 or 2040100 MW / 400 MWh BESSRERC 4-hr BESS
2035 or 2040100 MW / 600 MWh BESSRERC 6-hr BESS
RiversideCA.gov
16 1. Under either Baseline (1a or 1b) Portfolio, RPU exceed s a 60% RPS through 2045 even if the Baseload Tranche (Resource 2) is carbon-free but not renewable.
2. Under either Baseline (1a or 1b) Portfolio, RPU achieves a carbon free portfolio by 2040 and maintains it through 2045.
FORECASTED FUTURE RPS & GHG LEVELS
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17 1. Geothermal vs Solar PV + Battery Energy Storage (BES): preference will depend on PPA price points – and possibly also BES MW capacity level.
2. Under mid-point pricing assumptions for all new resources, power supply costs increase by ~2% annually (through 2045).
3. Proposed resource portfolio satisfies all CA RPS mandates & CA/Riverside GHG targets; carbon-free portfolio achieved by 2040.
4. Springs units should be replaced with BES as soon as generation units reach end-of-life.
5. RERC units should also be replaced with BES when generation units reach end-of-life. However, all early (2035) replacement options result in higher power supply costs.
6. Future portfolio costs will be sensitive to new resource price points, regardless of the underlying technology.
KEY FINDINGS: LONG-TERM RESULTS
RiversideCA.gov
18 Staff completed a systemwide sensitivity study of DER impacts to the distribution grid by:
1. Establishing average hourly seasonal and diurnal loading profiles for all distribution circuits, along with their 80% confidence interval (P10- P90).
2. Comparing results from (1) and existing distribution infrastructure capacities against impacts of simulated additions of EV load, fuel switching (building electrification), and PV Generation.
3. Summarizing results from (2) using various sensitivity metrics.
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM STUDIES: DER IMPACTS
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19 1. Staff simulated additional
PV, EV, FS units required to
reach existing distribution
system capacity limits.
2. Results suggest RPU can
likely accommodate
substantial additions of
these resources on most of
its distribution grid.
However, some circuits
are already near their
limits.
DER IMPACTS: SUMMARY RESULTS
Additional
Units at 50%
Saturation
Sum.MW
(50%)
Additional Units
at 100%
Saturation
Sum.MW
(100%)kW AC
PV, EV, FS Metric of
Interest
14,25171.2628,502142.515.00Small Res PV System
8,90771.2617,814142.518.00Large Res PV System
71371.261,425142.51100.00Comm PV System
98,503187.16197,005374.311.90Level 1 EV Charger
16,274187.1632,549374.3111.50Level 2 EV Charger
17,988172.6935,976345.379.60Heat Pump
52,329172.69104,658345.373.30Oven
28,309172.6956,618345.376.10Dryer
38,374172.6976,749345.374.50Water Heater
7,348172.6914,697345.3723.50Whole House
RiversideCA.gov
20 DER IMPACTS: SPATIAL RESULTS
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21 1. Ch. 14: Evaluating the Impact of Increasing Energy Efficiency Program Targets
At current pricing levels, investing in additional renewable resources will be typically more cost effective than investing to expand Energy Efficiency programs, except possibly for certain targeted HVAC EE programs.
2. Ch. 15: Retail Rate Design
Our recently approved electric rates help RPU to continue to meet decarbonization goals, while providing financial and revenue stability.
3. Ch. 16: Transportation Electrification
TE has the potential to add significant load and result in additional carbon reduction credits, if local area adoption rates increase.
KEY FINDINGS, CHAPTERS 14-17
RiversideCA.gov
22 4. Ch. 17: Minimizing Local Air Pollutants and Green House Gas Emissions in Disadvantaged Communities
RPU continues to make significant progress minimizing pollutants and emissions; for example, the utility has invested significant efforts at RERC to minimize local air pollutants (35% below industry best practices).
RPU is also offering expanded services and assistance programs to our lower income customers, as part of our new rate plan.
KEY FINDINGS, CHAPTERS 14-17 CONT.
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23 1. By 2030, EV energy demand in Riverside is forecasted to be ~56,200 MWh for Light Duty and ~23,300 MWh for Medium/Heavy Duty EVs.
2. Overall increase to RPU’s annual load is about 2%. These represent baseline assumptions in our IRP load forecasts.
3. Annual emissions reductions in 2030 are almost 64,000 MT CO2e under our baseline assumption.
4. Emission reductions would become much more signific ant under alternative (higher penetration) scenarios.
KEY FINDINGS: TRANSPORTATION ELECTRIFICATION
RiversideCA.gov
24 1. The role of future generation techno logies in RPU’s resource planning efforts (e.g., the need to study and identify viable resources to satisfy the baseload carbon-free energy needs in 2034 and beyond, as described in Chapters 11 and 12).
2. Improved methodologies for performing more comprehensive distribution system ICA studies (e.g., the need to build on analyses described in Chapter 13 to enhance our distribution planning efforts).
3. Potential future DR and/or EE/DSM efforts (e.g., the need to study and identify savings potential with novel EE, DSM, and DER programs – especially programs that can reduce our peak summer loads).
4. The value and benefits of a more comprehensive and integrated future TE planning effort (e.g., the need to develop a comprehensive EV Transportation enhancement plan).
POTENTIAL FUTURE STUDIES
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25 1. Two community meetings held seeking input for future analysis:
a. Saturday, April 13: Main Library
b. Thursday, April 18: Casa Blanca Library
2. Draft 2023 Integrated Resources Plan posted on the RPU website for public review
3. Staff are taking input from the community on desired/preferred future studies
COMMUNITY MEETINGS
RiversideCA.gov
26 Goal 4.1: Rapidly decrease Riverside’s carbon footprint by acting urgently to reach a zero-carbon electric grid with the goal of reaching 100% zero-carbon electricity production by 2040 while continuing to ensure safe, reliable, and affordable energy for all residents.
Goal 4.6: Implement the requisite measures to achieve citywide carbon neutrality no later than 2040.
Cross-Cutting Threads
STRATEGIC PLAN ALIGNMENT
Community Trust
Equity
Fiscal Responsibility
Innovation
Sustainability & Resiliency
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27 That the City Council:
1. Approve and adopt the 2023 Integrated Resource Plan for Riverside Public Utilities; and
2. Direct staff to file the adopted 2023 Integrated Resource Plan and any applicable supporting material with the California Energy Commission within five (5) business days after adoption of the 2023 IRP.
RECOMMENDATIONS
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