MEMORANDUM
2025 CMUA Energy Efficiency Potential Forecasting Study 1 CONFIDENTIAL
MEMORANDUM
TO Riverside Public Utilities (Riverside)
FROM GDS Associates, Inc.
DATE March 13, 2025
RE 2025 CMUA Energy Efficiency Potential Forecasting Study
INTRODUCTION
This memo provides the Riverside Public Utilities (Riverside) results of the California Municipal Utilities Association (CMUA) Energy Efficiency (EE) Potential Forecasting Study conducted in 2025 by GDS Associates, Inc. (GDS). The results described here are specific to the Riverside service territory and account for unique characteristics of the service area, customer base, climate zone, economic conditions, and other relevant factors. This memo provides a summary of the EE Savings Forecast and Fuel Substitution/Electrification Efficiency program opportunity, as well as a description of the data provided in the detailed results spreadsheet file provided to the utility. Energy efficiency potential is followed by fuel substitution and electrification efficiency opportunities.
SUMMARY OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL
This potential study provides a roadmap for Riverside as they develop strategies and programs for energy efficiency.
The development of market potential estimates for a range of feasible measures is useful for program planning and modification purposes.
The Riverside energy efficiency program target for the next 10 years (sum of incremental annual, 2026 through 2035) is set at 80,107 MWh. This results in an average annual target of 0.36 percent of total projected energy sales. Figure 1 provides the market potential for the residential and non-residential sectors, as well as the total incremental potential as a percentage of total sales for the 10-year period of 2026 to 2035.
FIGURE 1. NET INCREMENTAL MARKET POTENTIAL BY SECTOR (MWH) AND PERCENT OF SALES
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.50%
0 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
% of Annual Sales
MWh
Residential NonResidential Total Incremental Potential as a % of Sales Table 1 below includes the specific inputs used to create Figure 1. The annual energy and demand impacts are provided.
The energy impacts are shown as a percentage of forecasted sector-level and total sales. Incremental annual savings range from 6,971 MWh to 9,244 MWh, which corresponds to 0.30% to 0.43% of the forecasted sales.
TABLE 1 NET INCREMENTAL MARKET POTENTIAL BY SECTOR – ENERGY AND DEMAND 110 Year Energy Goals (Incremental NNet MMWh)
AALL Sectors (MWh) 220266 220277 220288 220299 220330 220331 220332 220333 220334 220335 TTotal Market PPotential 8,936 9,244 8,203 8,413 8,109 8,339 7,423 7,366 6,971 7,103 RRes Market Potential 4,186 4,002 3,577 3,320 3,031 2,850 2,567 2,123 1,815 1,601 NNon--RRes Market Potential 4,751 5,242 4,626 5,093 5,078 5,489 4,856 5,243 5,156 5,502
TTotal PPotential as a % of
TTotal Sales 0.42% 0.43% 0.38% 0.38% 0.37% 0.37% 0.33% 0.32% 0.30% 0.30% RRes Potential as a % of
RRes Sales 0.60% 0.56% 0.50% 0.46% 0.41% 0.38% 0.34% 0.28% 0.24% 0.20% NNon--RRes Potential as a %
oof Non--RRes Sales 0.33% 0.36% 0.32% 0.35% 0.34% 0.36% 0.32% 0.34% 0.33% 0.35%
110 Year Demand Goals (Incremental kW)
AALL Sectors (kW) 220266 220277 220288 220299 220330 220331 220332 220333 220334 220335 TTotal Market Potential 2,955 2,983 2,733 2,714 2,548 2,579 2,279 2,166 1,887 1,809 RRes Market PPotential 1,674 1,605 1,475 1,376 1,229 1,206 1,055 897 665 545 NNon--RRes Market Potential 1,282 1,378 1,258 1,338 1,319 1,372 1,224 1,269 1,222 1,264
At a glance, Riverside’s results include:
A 2026-2035 average annual gross savings target of 0.44% of forecasted retail sales A 2026-2035 average annual net savings target of 0.36% of forecasted retail sales No claim of savings from codes and standards (C&S)
Detailed Results
GDS has provided Riverside with a detailed results file which includes the summary information described above, as well as additional detailed results. The results file includes the following information:
10-yr gross incremental and cumulative annual energy and demand savings 10-yr net incremental and cumulative annual energy and demand savings 20-yr cumulative annual technical, economic and market potential by sector – energy and demand 20-yr incremental annual market potential by sector – energy and demand 20-yr market potential by program
20-yr market potential by end-use
20-yr costs by program
Comprehensive measure mapping list
SUMMARY OF FUEL SUBSTITUTION AND ELECTRIFICATION EFFICIENCY The analysis of fuel substitution and electrification efficiency opportunities provides a roadmap for the Riverside as they develop strategies and programs to support fuel substitution and electrification efficiency. The development of program opportunity estimates account for converting fossil fuel heating (space heating and water heating), and cooking for a range of feasible measures associated with the eTRM fuel substitution measures. As the market for fuel substitution moves forward and the disposition of proposed CARB zero-emission rules for space heating and water heating become clearer, the results are useful for program planning and modification purposes. Fuel substitution and electrification are described separately, with a focus for fuel substitution on the 2026-2029 timeframe, prior to the modeling assumption of proposed CARB rules coming into effect in 2030.
The Riverside fuel substitution opportunity identifies a market opportunity from 2026-2029 of 7,219 net equivalent MWh (eMWh).1 This result grows from 1,799 in 2026 to 1,812 in 2029. Electricity sales are expected to increase by 1,520 MWh due to in-program measures over the 2026-2029 timeframe. Figure 2 provides program opportunities related to eMWh, MWh load increases, the combined residential and non-residential sectors, as well as the total net eMWh savings. Fuel substitution savings beyond 2029 are solely based on cooking measures, which may be speculative and subject to change given program design decisions and priorities.
FIGURE 2. NET INCREMENTAL FUEL SUBSTITUTION PROGRAM OPPORTUNITY (MWH) AND SAVINGS
Table 3, below, includes the specific inputs used to create Figure 2. The annual energy and demand impacts are provided. The energy impacts are shown as a percentage of forecasted sector-level and total sales.
TABLE 2 10-YEAR FUEL SUBSTITUTION ENERGY RESULTS, ENERGY AND DEMAND ALL Sectors (eMWh
saved)
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Total Incremental
Program Opportunity
(eMWh saved)
2,180 2,182 2,186 2,191 66 80 93 100 101 95
Res Incremental Program
Opportunity 2,051 2,054 2,057 2,063 41 50 58 60 55 44
Non-Res Incremental
Program Opportunity 128 128 128 128 25 30 35 41 46 51
AALL Sectors (actual MWh
ggrowth)
Total Incremental
Program Opportunity
(MWh growth)
-380 -380 -380 -379 -27 -33 -38 -41 -41 -38
1 Fuel substitution savings are calculated by converting therm savings from gas to equivalent kWh (ekWh). Therm savings are multiplied by 29.3 to create ekWh and divided by 1,000 to create eMWh. The increased electricity from these loads is subtracted from the eMWh to a rrive at the net ekWh or net eMWh of savings.
-1,000
-500
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
MWh
Total Incremental Program Opportunity
(eMWh Saved)
Total Incremental Program Opportunity
(MWh Growth)
Total Incremental Program Opportunity
(net eMWh)
ALL Sectors (eMWh
saved)
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Res Incremental Program
Opportunity -357 -356 -356 -356 -17 -22 -25 -26 -24 -19 Non-Res Incremental
Program Opportunity -24 -24 -24 -24 -9 -11 -13 -15 -18 -19 AALL Sectors (net eMWh
ssavings)
Total Incremental
Program Opportunity (net
eMWh)
1,799 1,802 1,806 1,812 39 47 55 59 60 57
Res Incremental Program
Opportunity 1,695 1,697 1,701 1,707 23 29 33 34 31 25
Non-Res Incremental
Program Opportunity 105 105 105 105 15 18 22 25 28 31
Total Incremental
Program Opportunity as a
% of Total Sales
-0.018% -0.018% -0.018% -0.017% -0.001% -0.001% -0.002% -0.002% -0.002% -0.002% Res Incremental Program
Opportunity as a % of
Res Sales
-0.051% -0.050% -0.050% -0.049% -0.002% -0.003% -0.003% -0.003% -0.003% -0.002% Non-Res Incremental
Program Opportunity as a
% of Non-Res Sales
-0.002% -0.002% -0.002% -0.002% -0.001% -0.001% -0.001% -0.001% -0.001% -0.001%
ALL Sectors (kW) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Total Incremental Program
Opportunity -26 -26 -26 -26 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5
Res Incremental Program
Opportunity -23 -23 -23 -24 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0
Non-Res Incremental Program
Opportunity -3 -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4
The Riverside electrification efficiency opportunity identifies a market opportunity from 2030-2035 of 16,577 MWh in savings. This result is driven by the proposed CARB zero-emission rules and possible energy efficiency adoption level that could come through programs. These results are predicated on the proposed CARB rules, but indicate a significant program opportunity in the future should those rules come to pass. Figure 3 provides the program opportunity for energy savings relative to possible load growth driven by the proposed CARB rules and share of total energy sales after adding the impact of the proposed CARB rules to the baseline forecast. These savings and impacts are highly speculative and dependent on the implementation and timing of proposed CARB rules, as well as future program design decisions.
FIGURE 3. NET INCREMENTAL ELECTRIFICATION EFFICIENCY PROGRAM SAVINGS AND LOAD IMPACTS (MWH)
Table 4, below, includes the specific inputs used to create Figure 3. The annual energy and demand savings opportunities are provided, along with annual load growth factors.
At a glance, Riverside’s fuel substitution and electrification results include:
Growing net eMWh program savings opportunities through 2029, followed by a sharp decline to the modeled impact of proposed CARB rules.
Minor load growth from fuel substitution programs through 2029. A large growth in electrification efficiency opportunities from 2030-2035, with substantial opportunities to offset load growth.
DDetailed Results
GDS has provided Riverside with a detailed results file which includes the summary information described above, as well as additional detailed results. The results file includes the following information:
10-yr gross incremental and cumulative annual energy and demand impacts from fuel substitution and electrification efficiency
20-yr incremental annual market impacts by sector impacts from fuel substitution and electrification efficiency load and demand growth, as well as program impacts
0.00%
0.02%
0.04%
0.06%
0.08%
0.10%
0.12%
0.14%
0.16%
0.18%
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
MWh
Total Incremental Program Opportunity Savings
Total Load Increase After Electrification Efficiency Program Electrification Efficiency Share of Total Sales After Adding CARB-Driven Electrification to Baseline Forecast TABLE 3 10-YEAR ELECTRIFICATION EFFICIENCY ENERGY RESULTS, ENERGY AND DEMAND ALL Sectors (MWh) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Total Cumulative Increased Electricity 0 0 0 0 28,342 28,053 27,762 27,458 27,134 26,787 Res Cumulative Increased Electricity 0 0 0 0 16,072 16,027 15,975 15,908 15,821 15,718 Non-Res Cumulative Increased
Electricity 0 0 0 0 12,269 12,026 11,787 11,550 11,313 11,069
Total Cumulative Program Opportunity
Savings 0 0 0 0 1,842 2,210 2,579 2,947 3,315 3,684
Res Cumulative Program Opportunity
Savings 0 0 0 0 365 438 511 584 657 730
Non-Res Cumulative Program
Opportunity Savings 0 0 0 0 1,477 1,772 2,067 2,363 2,658 2,953
Total Load Increase After
Electrification Efficiency Program 0 0 0 0 26,500 25,842 25,183 24,511 23,819 23,103 Res Load Increase After Electrification
Efficiency Program 0 0 0 0 15,707 15,588 15,463 15,324 15,164 14,987 Non-Res Load Increase After
Electrification Efficiency Program 0 0 0 0 10,793 10,254 9,720 9,188 8,655 8,116
Total Cumulative Program Opportunity
as a % of Total Sales 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.08% 0.10% 0.11% 0.13% 0.14% 0.15% Res Cumulative Program Opportunity
as a % of Res Sales 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.06% 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% Non-Res Cumulative Program
Opportunity as a % of Non-Res Sales 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.12% 0.13% 0.15% 0.17% 0.18%
ALL Sectors (kW) 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Total Incremental
Program Opportunity 0 0 0 0 0 709 851 993 1,134 1,276
Res Incremental
Program Opportunity 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 12 14 15
Non-Res Incremental
Program Opportunity 0 0 0 0 0 701 841 981 1,121 1,261