62.2% - 77.9%
43.5% - 62.1%
0.0% - 43.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Sacramento, 2019; Dyett and Bhatia, 2023 Map 17: Communities of Color
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City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
74 Poverty is also associated with societal exclusion and mental illness, and low- income individuals and families are more likely to work or live in environments that expose them to pesticides, lead, and outdoor air pollution .178 During high heat events, concerns about utility costs may inhibit a low-income household’s ability to stay cool and receive necessary medical care .179 Lower income households are also more likely to suffer from chronic illnesses such as diabetes, heart disease, and stress.180 Moreover, studies have shown that lower -income residents tend to have less access to working home air conditioners, transportation, and cool environments (e.g., shopping mall, library) during prolonged heat events, leading to substantially higher risk of heat- related deaths.
Housing quality may also be a factor compounded with low income levels that affects disparities in heat-related mortality; those with lower income are more likely to live in overcrowded or substandard housing conditions where ventilation is inadequate.181 About 11 percent of Sacramento families (about 16 percent of all people) live in poverty .182 Some types of families are more likely to be in poverty than others. These include families headed by a single female, those whose heads are non-white, those whose heads have not attended college, and those that include multiple children.183
Map 19 reveals that poverty rates are particularly high in the neighborhoods of North Sacramento, Del Paso Heights, Village Green, South Hagginwood, and Woodlake, as well as in Southern Pacific Richards, Tokay Meadows, Avondale, Central Oak Park, Woodbine, Brentwood, an d South City Farms. A number of these neighborhoods are sparsely populated areas that contain or adjoin industrial land uses.
Unemployment and Occupation
Employment is considered a key social determinant of health because wages and benefits such as health insurance are an important factor in determining workers’ ability to pay for safe housing, nutritious food, and medical care.184 However, individuals who engage in certain occupations may also have elevated climate change vulnerability. Outdoor workers are often among the first to be exposed to the effects of climate change such as increased ambient temperature and degraded air quality.185 There is emerging evidence that extreme heat can increase the risk of on-the-job injuries 178 CalBrace, “Poverty Rate.”
179 Gronlund CJ, 2014..
180 CalBrace, “Poverty Rate.”
181 Glen P. Kenny et al., “Heat Stress in older individuals and patients with common chronic diseases,” Canadian Medical Association Journal, July 13, 2010, 182(10): 1053-1060, doi: 10.1503/cmaj.081050. 182 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1701, Table S1702 183 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1702 184 Constible J, Chang B, Morganelli C, Blandon N. “On the Front Lines: Climate Change Threatens the Health of America’s Workers.” Natural Resources Defense Council Jun 2020. July 31 2020:
https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/front-lines-climate-change-threatens-workers-report.pdf. 185 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016; CalBrace, “Outdoor Workers.” Nov 8 2019:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OHE/CDPH%20Document%20Library/CHVIs/BRACE_OutdoorsWorkers_Nar rative_790_12-5-2016.pdf.
by making workers irritable or confused or by interfering with balance, motor control, and vision.186
186 Constible J, et.al., 2020.
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FreeportBlvd
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Ave
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Ave
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I St
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29T
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Rd
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Gerber Rd
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Del Paso Rd
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Bradshaw Rd
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Laguna Blvd
Raley BlvdNatom
asBlvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
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Grant Line Rd
65T
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Big Horn Blvd
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Percent Below Poverty Level
34.7% - 57.9%
21.8% - 34.6%
10.6% - 21.7%
0.0% - 10.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Sacramento, 2019; Dyett and Bhatia, 2023 Map 19: Concentration of Poverty
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City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
76 Specific occupations that may experience heightened vulnerability include agricultural workers, groundskeepers, emergency responders, utility repair crews, and construction workers.187 Statistics show that t hese occupations tend to have a higher percentage of Blacks or African Americans, Hispanics or Latinos, and low -wage workers 188 than the population as a whole, many of whom enjoy little job security and do not receive health insurance or paid sick leave. 189 For some groups, such as migrant laborers and day laborers, occupational-related vulnerability may be compounded by additional sources of vulnerability such as lack of access to quality housing 190, low income, linguistic isolation, and legal precariousness that introduces barriers to the use of emergency and legal protective services .191 Fear of discrimination or deportation dissuades some immigrant workers from reporting unsafe conditions or injuries and illnesses sustained on the job .192 Additionally, immigrant workers may be unaware of their workplace rights or ineligible for workers’ compensation. Temporary and informally employed workers are more susceptible to occupational injuries and illnesses than are permanent employees because they often have less work experience, are unfamiliar with their workplaces, receive inadequate health and safety training, are assigned the most dangerous jobs, and may be fired or penalized for taking time off.193 In addition, outdoor workers are often among the first to be exposed to the effects of wildfires, such as degraded air quality.194
Housing Conditions
The availability of high -quality, stable, and affordable housing helps reduce exposure to extreme climate events and enables recovery. High housing costs may increase vulnerability by monopolizing financial resources, while lack of stable or high -quality housing may increase vulnerability by increasing exposure to environmental impacts.
The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines housing cost burdened households as those who pay more than 30 percent of their income on housing. Housi ng cost- burdened households may struggle to afford other necessities such as food, transportation, medical care195, and—in the case of extreme climate events—emergency supplies and the ability to access a safe area. About 40 percent of households in Sacramento are housing cost-burdened.196 In the absence of high -quality affordable housing options, the locations in which low -income households and individuals reside are often less resilient in the face of the impacts of weather a nd climate change 197 and may be farther from workplaces, shopping districts, and public transit — 187 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016.
188 Constible J, et.al., 2020.
189 Shonkoff SB, et.al., 2011; Constible J, et.al., 2020. 190 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016.
191 CalBrace, “Outdoor Workers.”
192 Constible J, et.al., 2020.
193 Constible J, et.al., 2020.
194 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016; CalBrace, “Outdoor Workers.” 195 “Rental Burdens: Rethinking Affordability Measures.” PD&R Edge Home. Nov 8 2019:
https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr_edge_featd_article_092214.html. 196 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S2503 197Thomas, K., et.al., 2018..
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
77 increasing the costs associated with transportation. Patterns of settlement in which lower- income households locate in especially vulnerable areas could be exacerbated in the future as the real estate market begins to take exposure to climate change affects into account when setting housing prices.198 As seen in Map 20, those neighborhoods where residents may experience particularly high housing cost burdens includ e North Sacramento, Del Paso Heights, South Hagginwood, Point West, Cal Expo, Southern Pacific/ Richards, Tokay Meadows, Weyand Industrial, North City Farms, Woodbine, Valley Hi/ North Laguna, and Central City.
A variety of housing types have been found to be correlated with higher sensitivity to climate change impacts. Poor quality home construction can also increase vulnerability to climate change impacts.199 Manufactured or mobile homes are especially vulnerable to storm and flooding damage.200 Similarly, rental housing, manufactured housing, and subsidized housing are often located in neighborhoods where there are higher concentrations of populations who are sensitive to heat.201 Thirty-one percent of Sacramento county’s subsidized housing units are located in high- heat census tracts, one of the highest rates of the state.202 Low-income households may struggle to afford to invest in home upgrades that reduce climate exposure. Additionally, in the aftermath of an extreme climate event, it can be especially dif ficult for low-income individuals to cover costs associated with home repairs or relocation203, potentially perpetuating the vulnerability of low-income and housing cost burdened households.
Whether a resident owns or rents their housing unit may also affect climate vulnerability. Renters may have less control than homeowners when it comes to making home upgrades to reduce climate exposure or increase resiliency. Across the Sacramento region, renters are less likely to have access to air conditioning; w hen they do use air conditioning, renters are more likely than homeowners to use window conditioning units, which are less effective at cooling and more energy -intensive, and thus more likely to place an energy burden on residents .204 Additionally, areas with high rates of homeownership are associated with stronger local social networks, greater community involvement, and longer resident tenure. In past studies, a neighborhood’s proportion of renter - occupied housing units was shown to be positively correlated with higher mortality rates among the elderly population during extreme heat events, perhaps reflecting a lack of stability, coping capacity, and strong community ties in these neighborhoods .205 About 5 0.2 percent (94,124) of 198 Deas M, etl.al., 2017.
199 Thomas, K., et.al., 2018.
200 Gamble JL, et.al., 2013..
201 Gabbe CJ, Pierce G. “Extreme Heat Vulnerability of Subsidized Housing Residents in California.” Housing Policy Debate. (Jul 2020). July 27 2020: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10511482.2020.1768574 202 Gabbe CJ and Pierce G., 2020.
203 Thomas, K., et.al., 2018.
204 Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, 2020. 205 Klein Rosenthal J, Kinney PL, Metzger KB. “Intra-urban vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York Coty, 1997-2006.” Health & Place (2014). May 11 2020:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1353829214001087.
Sacramento’s occupied housing units are renter- occupied.206 A s c a n b e s e e n i n Map 21, high concentrations of renter-occupied housing occur in downtown and the Natomas neighborhood. 206 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S2502 15T
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Bradshaw Rd
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Bond Rd
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Laguna Blvd
Raley BlvdNatom
asBlvd
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Calvine Rd
N Market Blvd
Grant Line Rd
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Housing Cost-Burdened* Households
*30% or more of Household Income
51.4% - 72.8%
40.0% - 51.3%
29.3% - 39.9%
20.1% - 29.2%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Sacramento, 2019; Dyett and Bhatia, 2023 Map 20: Housing Cost
Burdened Households
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10T
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TruxelRd
Hillsdale Blvd
Madison A ve
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
A St
Meadowview Rd
21StSt
Florin
PerkinsRd
W El Camino Ave
FreeportBlvd
N
orthgateBlvd
Sutterville Rd
Mack Rd
47Th Ave
Garfield
Ave
Kiefer Blvd
Eastern
Ave
Fruitridge Rd
StocktonBlvd
French Rd
N St
I St
P St
Arena Blvd
29T
h St
San Juan Rd
PowerInn
Rd
Sheldon Rd
W Elkhorn Blvd
El Centro Rd
Gerber Rd
Elder Creek Rd
HoweAve
Sims Rd
Del Paso Rd
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Bradshaw Rd
AuburnBlvd
Bond Rd
Arden Way
Laguna Blvd
Raley BlvdNatom
asBlvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
N Market Blvd
Grant Line Rd
65T
h Street Expy
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aterman Rd
Big Horn Blvd
CenterPkwy
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merceWay
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Percent Renter-Occupied Housing
71.9% - 100.0%
50.9% - 71.8%
34.2% - 50.8%
10.1% - 34.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Sacramento, 2019; Dyett and Bhatia, 2023 Map 21: Renter-Occupied
Housing Units
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City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
80 Homelessness
People experiencing homelessness may be especially vulnerable to climate change impacts.
Homeless individuals, who already experience elevated levels of exposure to environmental stressors such as high heat, poor air quality from wildfire smoke, and flooding, may lack a secure place to shelter in the event of a climate emergency and experience especially high levels of exposure to extreme weather. For example, there have been recent reports that homeless individuals in the Sacramento area are establishing shelters among the Delta’s levee networks. Human interference with the levee system may threaten the structural integrity of the levees .207 Meanwhile, individuals who take up residence among the levees are at particularly high risk for suffering flood -related damages.
The needs of homeless individuals may be overlooked in disaster planning initiatives, and they are often more difficult to contact via emergency alert systems.208 Additionally, homeless communities often lack the legal standing that would help ensure their legitimacy and protection in times of emergency.209
As of 2022, it was estimated that approximately 9,278 individuals experienced homelessness in Sacramento each night. About 85 percent of these individuals were single adults over the age of 25, 15 percent were in family units, and 8 percent were unaccompanied youth.210 Sacramento County’s 2019 Point- In-Time Count revealed there was a 67 percent increase in nighttime homelessness between 2019 and 2022. 211 The Point-In-Time Count also found that approximately 30 percent of individuals sleeping outside in Sacramento County are adults over the age of 55 . Black and American Indian or Alaska Native people are also significantly overrepresented in the homeless population, especially within unsheltered families.212
Linguistic Isolation
Linguistically isolated households are those in which there is no one aged 14 years or older who speaks English fluently. 213 Linguistic isolation may delay or prevent access to information such as
207 Heap, B. “’Could be catastrophic’: Homeless camps on Sacramento-area levees cause concern,” KCRA (May 10 2019). Nov 8 2019: https://www.kcra.com/article/could-be-catastrophic-homeless-camps-on-sacramento-area- levees-cause-concern/27440429#; CBS Sacramento, “Homeless People Damaging Flood Levees, Putting Thousands of Sacramento Homes In Danger.” (May 9 2019). Nov 8 2019:
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2019/05/09/homeless-digging-flood-levees/. 208 Thomas, K., et.al., 2018.
209 Thomas, K., et.al., 2018.
210 Baiocchi A, Curry S, Morris J, Newham J, Caler, K, et al. “Homelessness in Sacramento County: Results from the 2022 Point-in-Time Count.” (Sacramento, CA: Center for Health Practice, Policy & Research, California State University Sacramento and Sacramento Steps Forward, 2019). July 2022: http://sacramentostepsforward.org/wp- content/uploads/2022/06/PIT-Report-2022.pdf.
211 Baiocchi A, et al., 2022.
212 Baiocchi A, et al.., 2022.
213 CalBRACE, “Linguistic Isolation.” Nov 8 2019:
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OHE/CDPH%20Document%20Library/CHVIs/BRACE_LinguisticIsolation_Na rrative_11-15-2016.pdf.
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
81 public notices, job opportunities, and healthcare services. Linguistic isolation may hinder protective behaviors during extreme weather events or disasters by limiting access to or understanding of health and safety warnings and health inform ation214, such as the City’s own emergency response materials, the majority of which are only available in English. Studies have shown that people who live in linguistically isolated households are more likely to make heat -related calls to 911 during extreme heat events. In the aftermath of an extreme event, language barriers can present barriers to proper care and recovery services .215 Language barriers can be a contributor to vulnerability for new immigrants, older first- generation immigrants, asylum seeker s, and young children .216 Additionally, lack of familiarity with American government and planning processes may present barriers to engaging in planning processes and accessing key government-provided resources.217 Sacramento is a place of great linguistic d iversity. Approximately 36.1 percent of Sacramento residents speak a language other than English at home.218 Of those who speak a language other than English at home, 38.5 percent have limited English proficiency.219 About 17 percent speak Spanish at home 220, with other frequently spoken languages including Chinese (including Cantonese and Mandarin), Tagalog (including Filipino), and Vietnamese.
Within the City of Sacramento, neighborhoods where residents experience high rates of linguistic isolation show a significant amount of overlap with those neighborhoods that are high in poverty, residents with disabilities, and high -cost, reduced quality housing. As described above, a number of these neighborhoods are low -density, contain or are adjacent to industrial land uses, and relatively isolated from core City activities. However, many linguistically isolated residents are also located downtown in the City’s core. When compared with Map 18 (Racial Distribution) , Map 22 shows how this area corresponds to a high density of the City’s Asian population.
AT-RISK VULNERABLE POPULATIONS
This section discusses and maps the overlay of areas that are impacted by each of the climate change effects with the vulnerable populations described above.
Urban Heat
Urban heat island effects in Sacramento are most prevalent in North Sacramento, Fruitridge-Broadway, the South Area, parts of the Central City, and in industrialized areas (see Map 1). Populations vulnerable to urban heat include children (aged 14 and below), older adults (aged 65 and over), individuals with disabilities, low-income households, outdoor workers, cost-burdened households, households living in substandard housing conditions, linguistically isolated households, and communities of color.
214 CalBRACE, “Linguistic Isolation.”.
215 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016.
216 CalBRACE, “Linguistic Isolation.”.
217 Deas M, et.al., 2017..
218 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1601 219 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1601 220 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1601 15T
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Madison A ve
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Main Ave
A St
Meadowview Rd
21StSt
Florin
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W El Camino Ave
FreeportBlvd
N
orthgateBlvd
Sutterville Rd
Mack Rd
47Th Ave
Garfield
Ave
Kiefer Blvd
Eastern
Ave
Fruitridge Rd
StocktonBlvd
French Rd
N St
I St
P St
Arena Blvd
29T
h St
San Juan Rd
PowerInn
Rd
Sheldon Rd
W Elkhorn Blvd
El Centro Rd
Gerber Rd
Elder Creek Rd
HoweAve
Sims Rd
Del Paso Rd
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Bradshaw Rd
AuburnBlvd
Bond Rd
Arden Way
Laguna Blvd
Raley BlvdNatom
asBlvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
N Market Blvd
Grant Line Rd
65T
h Street Expy
W
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Big Horn Blvd
CenterPkwy
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Percent Linguistically Isolated Households
21.9% - 42.6%
13.3% - 21.8%
7.7% - 13.2%
3.1% - 7.6%
0.0% - 3.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Sacramento, 2019; Dyett and Bhatia, 2023 Map 22: Rate of Linguistic Isolation
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83 Map 23: Urban Heat Island and Disadvantaged Communities (DACs) illustrates an overlay of areas that are impacted by the urban heat island effect as well as house a high proportion of disadvantaged communities (DACs). DACs are define d as the areas in the top 25 percent of CalEnviroScreen scores, which take into account census tracts’ pollution burdens and population socioeconomic characteristics. Northeast and southeast Sacramento largely contain areas that are vulnerable to urban heat island effects and house DACs. While many of these areas represent industrial and large commercial areas, many adjacent neighborhoods were developed without street tree canopy, have large unshaded parking lots, and represent neighbor hoods with fewer trees on private property.
The City’s Urban Forest Plan will focus on high-risk neighborhoods that contain vulnerable populations that should be prioritized for urban heat island mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Flooding
As described in Chapter 2.1, flooding is the most common natural hazard event to occur within the city limits, and climate modeling suggests that climate change has increased the likelihood of a storm event capable of producing catastrophic flooding. The majority of the city lies within the 100-year Magpie Creek floodplain, the 100-year flood zone, or the 500-year flood zone.
The most flood- prone areas are designated as repetitive loss areas. Areas of repetitive flooding include South Natomas, Downtown East, Downtown West, Southeast Sacramento, and Sutterville/Meadowview as illustrated in Map 4: Repetitive Loss Areas and FEMA Flood Zones.
Numerous populations are particularly vulnerable to the effects of flooding and may require additional health interventions. As described above, groups who are at risk include older adults (aged 65 and over), individuals with disabilities, low-income households, cost-burdened and poor- quality households, linguistically isolated households, and communities of color.
Map 24: DACs in Repetitive Loss Areas (RLAs) and FEMA Flood Zones illustrates an overlay of areas that are impacted by flooding in Sacramento as well as house a high proportion of disadvantaged communities (DACs). Areas at particular risk include portions of RLAs 1, 3, and 4.
Specific neighborhoods in these high- risk areas include Northgate, Downtown, Southside Park, Richmond Grove, Alkali Flat, Mansion Flats, and Avondale.
Drought
A significant drought may raise food prices and food insecurity. The scarcity of water factors into the cos ts of food throughout the system. Food prices in grocery stores may increase during a drought which could make it too costly for low- income households to purchase fresh produce, meats, and poultry.
Unless groundwater resources are successfully managed, consistent droughts would likely result in significant groundwater depletion over time due to an increased reliance on the water source.
Groundwater currently comprises about one- third of the region’s water use; studies have shown that regional rates of grou ndwater extraction increase under drought conditions . T he City’s groundwater supplies are currently being managed sustainably and major overdrafts are not anticipated. However, climate change effects such as drought and shifting precipitation patterns could impact groundwater supply over the course of the century.
Disadvantaged Community
Sacramento City Limit
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and Disadvantaged Communities
Temperature (F)
High : 44.8
Low : -24.4
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1 23
4 5
Del Paso Blvd
Raley Blvd
Land
ParkDr
Grand Ave
N
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J St
Sheldon Rd
N
16Th
St
K St
Northgate
Blvd
39Th
St
43Rd Ave
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Arden Way
StocktonBlvd
Rush River Dr
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Q St
Richards Blvd
Marconi Ave
NatomasCentralD
r
Riverside Blvd
Bruceville
Rd
Elder Creek Rd
Frank
lin Blvd
Club Center Dr
RioLindaBlvd
Windbridge Dr
Jackson Rd
Valley Hi Dr
24ThSt
El Camino Ave
59Th
St
Havenside
D
r
La Riviera Dr
Fair Oaks Blvd
X St
American River Dr
Mc kinley Blvd
Elvas Ave
21S
t St
Fulton Av
e
PowerInnRd
Norwood Av
e
Ea
ste
rn Av
e
Grove Av
e
I Street Brg
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Freepo
rt Blvd
Danbrook D r
Broadway
19T
h St
W
att
Av
e
65ThSt
16T
h St
29T
h St
12T
h St
9T
h St
10T
h St
30T
h St
15T
h St
Al
ha
mbr
a Blvd
G
reenhavenDr
Florin Rd
H St
H
ovna nian Dr
TruxelRd
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
Etha
n W
ay
W El Camino Ave
CollegeTown Dr
Brookfield Dr
Regency ParkCir
Engle Rd
13Th St
Gloria Dr
47Th Ave
Seamas Ave
Cottage Way
Ha rvard
St
Pocket Rd
Roseville Rd
W
alnut
Av
e
AuburnBlvd
E Sto
ckto
n Blvd
L St
Tower Brg
Westlake Pkwy
Capitol Mall
Arena Blvd
Edison Ave
Kiefer Blvd
M
issionA
ve
Frenc
h
Rd
W St
Television Cir
C St
I St
P St
5ThSt
3R
d St
Bridgecross Dr
65Th
StreetExpy
San Juan Rd
Azevedo Dr
Alta Arden Expy
SWattAve
Northrop Ave
Howe Ave
Meadowview Rd
Silver Eagle Rd
Exposition Blvd
Del Paso Rd
Curtis Dr
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Elsie Ave
Fruitridge Rd
Munr
oe St
N Bend Dr
N12Th St
Gate
way Park Blvd
NatomasBlvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
46T
h St
W Elkhorn Blvd
N Market Blvd
Elkhorn Blvd
Gerber Rd
S Land
Park D
r
14T
h St
Florin
PerkinsRd
American River
E
CommerceWay
Folsom Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
Levee Rd
Hurley Way
35Th Ave
Arden Garden
N Park Dr
E Levee Rd
Laguna Blvd
Lone
Tree Rd
Metro Air PkwyPower Line Rd
ElCentro
Rd
Hedge Av
e
Garden Hwy
Map 24: Disadvantaged Communities
in Repetitive Loss Areas and FEMA
Flood Zones
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Repetetive Loss Area
Disadvantaged Community
Disadvantaged Community
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Flood Zone
100-yr Floodplain, Magpie Creek
100 Year Flood Zone
500 Year Flood Zone
Sacramento City Limit
Water0 1 2½ Mile
City of Sacramento
City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
86 Wildfire
While a wildfire may be unlikely to break out within Sacramento city limits, wildfires can have profound secondary impacts on the health of vulnerable populations. Wildfire smoke can cause adverse health effects including restricted breathing; eye irritati on; aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases including asthma, COPD, bronchitis, and pneumonia; and may increase cancer risk and impair immune function. Vulnerable populations include children (aged 14 and below), older adults (aged 65 and ov er), individuals with disabilities, low -income households, outdoor workers (such as construction workers), linguistically isolated households, and communities of color. Some studies have also found associations between low socioeconomic status and health effects related to wildfire smoke exposure.
While Sacramento itself may not be at a very high risk to wildfires within city limits, its secondary air quality impacts can have harmful health effects on the city’s vulnerable populations. Even though Sacramento and the State of California have a plethora of resources on wildfire emergency preparedness, it is essential to ensure that all community members are well-informed and well- equipped to respond to a climate-related event.
Climate Disaster Preparedness
If evacuation is necessary due to a climate disaster event, several barriers may prevent residents from evacuating. Some residents, such as the elderly, the hospitalized, prisoners 221, the low- income222, individuals with mobility issues, those who lack access to reliable transportation223, those whose do not receive language -appropriate warning and evacuation information, and those with pets,224 may not be able to evacuate in a timely manner even if they desire to do so. When a large- scale evacuation is taking place, the elderly may be left behind by caretakers and families, and their specific conditions and medical needs may be overlooked. Income influences the ability to evacuate by affecting ability to afford access to private transportation and services such as hotels.
Additionally, research has shown that residents of high- density areas may require additional assistance while evacuating.225
Even in the absence of an evacuation event, disruptions to the transportation network can occur as a result of localized flooding, and can disproportionately affect low-income individuals and older adults who may have limited mobility as well as those with limited English proficiency who may not understand noti ces communicated only in English . These disruptions also affect those who commute into or out of the city for work, who may suffer economic losses as a result .226 Car ownership is an important marker of social vulnerability to storms and floods. During a sudden flood event, households in or near a flood zone without a personal vehicle may be at greater risk of
221 Benevolenza MA, DeRigne L. “The impact of climate change and natural disasters on vulnerable populations: A systematic review of literature.” Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment (2019). Nov 8 2019:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10911359.2018.1527739?journalCode=whum20. 222 U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2016.
223 Nutters, H., 2012.
224 Porter K., et al., 2010.
225 Porter K., et al., 2010.
226 Maxwell, K., et.al., 2018.
TOC
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
87 harm because they have reduced capacity to evacuate.227 Approximately 8.3 percent of Sacramento’s households lack access to a household vehicle.228
3.2 Critical Facilities
A critical facility is any facility whose damage or disruption would result in severe consequences to public health and safety or interrupt essential services for the community. The following section details critical facilities in Sacramento and their essential services which can consist of water utilities, wastewater services, energy infrastructure, communication infrastructure, power generation facilities, levees, roads and bridges, and medical services.
WATER SUPPLY
Water supply is critical to many functions and systems within the city, such as for fire suppression and water for public health including hospital and medical uses, and limited wat er supply can increase competition between these essential needs.
The City provides domestic water service to the area within the city limits, as these limits change from time to time, and to several small areas within the County of Sacramento. A small area in the northeastern portion of the city (Swanston Estates) is served by the Sacramento Suburban Water District, although City and District staff have held discussions relative to the City taking this service area over at some point in the future. Areas adjacent to the city limits are served by the Natomas Central Mutual Water Company, Rio Linda Elverta Community Water District, Sacramento County Water Agency, Sacramento Suburban Water District, California- American Water Company, Tokay Park Water District, Elk Grove Water Service, and the Florin County Water District.
The City supplies domestic water from a combination of surface water and groundwater sources.
Two water treatment plants supply domestic water by diverting water from the American River and Sacramento River. In addition to the surface water diverted from the two rivers, the City operates groundwater supply wells. Emergency connections to adjacent water systems exist in various locations.
WASTEWATER
Three separate entities are involved in the collection, conveyance, treatment, and disposal of wastewater in the city. The City of Sacramento Department of Utilities (DOU) provides collection through its separated system and its combined system to about 65 percent of the population of Sacramento. The Sacramento Area Sewer District (formerly County Services District CSD -1) provides collection through its separated system to the remaining 35 percent of the population, primarily in the northwest and southeast sections of the city. The City’s separated system and Sacramento Area Sewer District’s system, as well as the dry-weather flow from the city’s combined system, and a majority of the wet weather flows from the city’s combined sewer system, drain into
227 Nutters, H., 2012.
228 2016-2020 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates Table S2504 City of Sacramento
City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
88 interceptors owned and operated by the Sacramento Regional County Sanitation District (Regional San) which in turn convey all flows to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (Sacramento Regional WWTP) also owned by Regional San. When a storm event results in combined sewer flows exceeding 60 million gallons per day, the City collects and treats the excess flows before discharging to the Sacramento River.229
The City collects fees for 54 sewer basins that serve the community plan areas of North Sacramento, and portions of Arden -Arcade, most of South Sacramento (e.g., Pocket, Airport, Meadowview, South Land Park), and most of East Sacramento. Fourteen of those basins are part of the combined sewer system. Four out of the other forty separated basins flow directly into the downtown area’s combined system, where the flow joins the combined flow before being conveyed to the Sacramento Regional WWTP. The other 50 separated basins flow into the Regional San interceptors which convey flows to the Sacramento Regional WWTP. Out of these 50 basins, 40 are pumped through their own individual pump stations, while the other 10 basins flow by gravity.
The older Central City area is served by the Combined Sewer System (CSS). The area served by the CSS constitutes approximately 7,545 acres or 12 percent of the total area within the current city limits. There are some local areas within this larger area that have separate sewer and storm drainage systems, but the bulk of the area is served by the combined system. Additionally, there are some peripheral areas that have separate sewer and storm drainage that contribute sewage to the CSS, including the four separated sewer basins described above.
FLOOD PREVENTION
The City of Sacramento is located in the heart of California’s Central Valley at the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers. The Central Valley is a flat alluvial plain approximately 50 miles wide and 400 miles long in central California. The northern part is the Sacramento Valley drained by the Sacramento River, and the southern part is the San Joaqu in Valley drained by the San Joaquin River. It is surrounded by the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the east, the Tehachapi Mountains to the south, Coastal Range to the west, and Cascade Range to the north. The topography of the area is relatively flat. There is a gradual slope rising from elevations as low as sea level in the southwestern portion of the Valley up to approximately 75 feet above sea level in the northeastern portion.
Given this geographic context, the City of Sacramento is susceptible to various types of flood events:
riverine, flash, and localized stormwater flooding; and levee and dam failure flooding. Regardless of the type of flood, the cause is most often the result of severe weather patterns and excessive rainfall, either in the flood area or upstream reach. Flooding is the most significant natural hazard that the City faces.
The majority of the city lies within areas with 0.2- to 1.0-percent annual probability of being flooded when compared to historic frequencies. Levee improvements are currently in progress. When these
229 City of Sacramento Department of Utilities, Where does it go? A Snapshot of the City’s Combined Sewer System, https://www.cityofsacramento.org/-/media/Corporate/Files/DOU/McKinley/How-it-works.pdf?la=en TOC
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
89 improvements are complete, the entire city will have at least 200- year riverine flood protection based on data available when the improvements were designed.
The Sacramento region’s extensive network of levees, dams, and weirs protect vast portions of the city, people, property, and its critical facilities from flooding. If a storm event larger than the design capacity of flood protection infrastructure was to occur and cause major flooding, significant numbers of people could be impacted, forced to evacuate, or be injured or killed.
ENERGY SUPPLY
Climate change can disrupt energy supply and delivery via increased temperatures, changes in the hydrological cycle, wildfire, and heavy storms. Heat both increases demand for energy and reduces the efficiency of energy transmission, making the city more susceptible to interruptions. Changes in seasonal snowmelt reduce s the generating capacity of SMUD’s hydroelectric facilities. Both wildfire and heavy storms, including winds, can damage infrastructure , leading to electricity and telecommunications service outages.230 This may make it difficult or impossible for vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or persons with disabilities, to receive necessary medical care during a climate hazard event.
Energy production and distribution are threatened by heat and wildfires. Physical infrastructure such as power lines or pipes in the direct path of a fire can suffer extensive damage. Transmission capacity is affected by high heat, smoke, and particulate matter, and lines may be shut down as a firefighting measure. Wildfire in the Sierra Nevada may damage water and energy infrastructure upon which the Sacramento region relies.
High temperatures can impact key infrastructure including energy generation and distribution.
High temperatures decrease the efficiency of power lines while increasing the demand for energy- intensive uses such as air conditioning and cooling equipment. This results in a higher risk of energy blackouts and increases energy bills. These impacts can strain household budgets, increase exposure to heat, and negatively impact the provision of medical and social services.
The Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) is responsible for the acquisition, generation, transmission and distribution of electrical service to customers for the City of Sacramento. SMUD’s 900 square mile service territory also includes most of Sacramento County and a portion of Placer County. SMUD serves a population of approximately 1.5 million with a total annual retail load of approximately 12.565 million megawatt-hours. SMUD generates 1,771 megawatts (MW) of power and buys 1,483 MW of power to meet the region’s power demands. SMUD supplies power through a distribution grid that is a looped system, which provides for more reliable power.
230 Lane K, Charles-Guzman K, Wheeler K, Abid Z, Graber N, Matte T. “Health Effects of Coastal Storms and Flooding in Urban Areas: A Review and Vulnerability Assessment.” Journal of Environmental and Public Health May 30 2013.
May 11 2020: https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jeph/2013/913064/; Porter K., et al., 2010.
City of Sacramento
City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
90 TRANSPORTATION
Extremely high temperatures can cause physical damage to roadways, railways, and bridges, as well as reduce the comfort and feasibility of walking, biking, and taking public transit.
Roads and sidewalks absorb and radiate heat, subjecting those nearby, including people walking and those using transit, to increased heat burdens.
Sacramento Regional Transit (SacRT) powers their light rail system with overhead catenary systems lines, which can stretch with heat and may lead to severing of the connection with the rail car.
Wildfire affects transportation infrastructure by causing road and airport blockages, closures, and reducing road visibility. Transportation services such as electric rail lines and traffic signals may also be affected by the disruptions to power service described above. Transportation infrastructures such as roads and rail lines can also be damaged by wildfires that result in high heat. Flooding can also result in roadways under water, critical facilities washed out, and damage to traffic signals, signs, and bridges.
The State highway system will also be affected. Caltrans owns or controls 350,000 acres of right of way, maintains 15,133 centerline miles of highway and 13,063 miles of state highway, and inspects more than 12,200 local bridges statewide. Caltrans engages in a number of climate -related initiatives to protect these critical assets. It conducts climate change vulnerability assessments to identify segments of the State Highway System vulnerable to climate change impacts including precipitation, temperature, wildfire, storm surge, and sea level rise. The results of these assessments are used to guide analysis of at-risk assets and develop adaptation plans and evacuation routes.
MEDICAL FACILITIES
A number of climate change effects, including higher ambient temperature, reduced ambient air quality, flooding, and wildfire will increase demand for medical services, potentially straining the City’s medical services infrastructure. There are six hospitals within the Sacramento area that serve the region:
• Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center (6600 Bruceville Road); • Mercy General Hospital (4001 J Street);
• Methodist Hospital of Sacramento (7500 Hospital Drive); • Shriners Hospital for Children – Northern California (2425 Stockton Boulevard); • Sutter Medical Center, Sacramento (2825 Capitol Avenue); and • UC Davis Medical Center (2315 Stockton Boulevard).
All of these facilities are designed and equipped to handle multiple, simultaneous patients during everyday activities and emergency situations.
The Kaiser Permanente South Sacramento Medical Center and UC Davis Medical Center are certified trauma centers serving the Policy Area. These facilities provide an enhanced level of life-saving care TOC
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
91 to victims of traumatic injuries. These facilities are staffed 24 hours per day with physicians, nurses, and other health care professionals who have special training in treating critical injuries to the head, spine and vital organs. Kaiser Permanente’s hospital is a Level II Trauma Center. The UC Davis Medical Center is a Level I trauma center and a Level I pediatric trauma center.
Various groups offer health clinics designed to address the needs of specific underserved populations throughout the Sacramento area. Many of these clinics are operated in coordination with the UC Davis Medical Hospital, including the Joan Viteri Clinic, the Center for Aids Research and Education (CARES), the Paul Hom Asian Clinic, ClinicaTepati, Imani Clinic, and Shita Clinic.
The County also provides CIMSP services at the following public clinics:
• Primary Care Center (4600 Broadway)
• Del Paso Health Center (3950 Research Drive)
• Capitol Health Center (1500 C Street)
• Oak Park Clinic - Oak Park Neighborhood Multiservice Center Health Clinic (3425 Martin Luther King, Jr. Boulevard)
The Department of Health and Human Services also operates the Sacramento County Mental Health Treatment Center (SCMHTC), located on 2150 Stockton Boulevard. The Minor Emergency Response Team unit also provides crisis intervention and stabilization for children and youth who are experiencing a psychiatric emergency. Inpatient hospitalization is available as a last resort when other treatment options are unsuccessful.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICE
Many telecommunications components (landline, wireless, and internet) and are susceptible to damage in a severe storm and telecommunications networks are susceptible to being slowed or blocked when overloaded by call volume.
AT-RISK CRITICAL FACILITIES
Some climate hazards, such as floods, pose a direct physical threat to critical infrastructure and facilities, while others, like rising temperatures, are associated with multiple effects that will increase burden on or even threaten capacity of these critical facilities. Risk factors are more significant for key transportation, power, water, communication, and related health and safety systems that are central to the operation of the City. For instance, the majority of Sacramento’s urban center, as well as vital public utilities, are dependent on levee protection. 231 Damage or disruption from flooding due to levee failure may interfere with the operation of key transportation, power, communication, health, and safety systems. In addition, secondary hazards such as industrial facilities that store hazardous materials can be potentially harmful to the public and expose residents to significant health and safety risks if damaged during a climate hazard event.
231 Sacramento Municipal Utility District, 2018; Water Education Foundation, “Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Levees.” Nov 9 2019: https://www.watereducation.org/aquapedia/sacramento-san-joaquin-delta-levees.
City of Sacramento
City of Sacramento Climate Action and Adaptation Plan
92 Similarly, secondary climate change effects pose a threat to stormwater and wastewater systems, which can be overwhelmed and/or damaged by floods or storm events. A combined sewer overflow (CSO) can occur when a CSS becomes inundated and the volume of stormwater and wastewater exceeds its storage and treatment capacity. This, in turn, can cause untreated stormwater and wastewater to be discharged into nearby streams, rivers, and other water bodies, threatening public and ecosystem health. This occurred three times between 2004 and 2012.232 Maps 2 5, 2 6, 2 7, and 2 8 illustrate critical facilities overlayed with FEMA flood zones. Critical facilities featured in the maps include emergency evacuation shelters, industrial facilities, public safety facilities, and transportation facilities. According to the maps, the vast majority of critical facilities are located within a flood zone. Areas with a higher probability of annual flooding, like the 100-year flood zone, may be unsuitable locations for existing critical facilities and may require relocations in the future.
Areas designated as Disadvantaged Communities by SB 535 (Chapter 830, Statutes of 2012) are specifically targeted for investment of proceeds from the State’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (pursuant to AB 32 [2006]), which the State appropriates to improve infrastructure, public health, quality of life, and economic opportunity, while also reducing pollution that causes climate change.
Under SB 535, areas identified by CalEPA as Disadvantaged Communities —those that are disproportionately affected by environmental pollution and other hazards that can lead to negative health effects, exposure, or environmental degradation; or those with concentrations of people that are of low income, high unemployment, low levels of homeownership, high rent burden, sensitive populations, or low levels of educational attainment —represent opportunities to leverage funding for making improvements to existing critical facilities or providing new ones within the communities that need them most. Similarly, California Opportunity Zones, established in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, provide tax incentives for investment in designated census tracts.
California Opportunity Zones support new investments in environmental justice, su stainability, climate change, and affordable housing.
Sacramento’s designation in 2015 as a “promise zone” by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is the catalyst for service expansion in Sacramento’s most economically distressed neighborhoods. Through the Promise Zone Initiative, the federal government works with local leaders and organizations in high poverty communities to increase economic activity, improve educational opportunities, leverage private investment, reduce violent crime, enhance public health, and address other priorities identified by the community. Promise Zone funding has supported expanded access to critical facilities and services including a new hospital and a new community health clinic. Additionally, improvements in communitywide health and wellness and strengthened community capacity can help reduce the factors that make certain populations more vulnerable to climate-related risks. Sacramento’s Promise Zone encompasses 22 square miles from Del Paso Heights in the north to Oak Park and part of Fruitridge Manor neighborhood in the south.
Sacramento’s Disadvantaged Communities, Opportunity Zones, and federal Promise Zone are shown in Map 29.
232 City of Sacramento Department of Utilities, Where does it go? A Snapshot of the City’s Combined Sewer System.
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1 23
4 5
Del Paso Blvd
Raley Blvd
Land
ParkDr
Grand Ave
N
orthborough Dr
J St
Sheldon Rd
N
16Th
St
K St
NorthgateBlvd
39Th
St
43Rd Ave
N St
Sutterville Rd
Arden Way
StocktonBlvd
Rush River Dr
Cosumnes River Blvd
Q St
Richards Blvd
Marconi Ave
NatomasCentralDr
Riverside Blvd
Bruceville
Rd
Elder Creek RdFranklin Blvd
Club Center Dr
RioLindaBlvd
Windbridge Dr
Jackson Rd
Valley Hi Dr
24ThSt
El Camino Ave
59Th
St
HavensideD
r
La Riviera Dr
Fair Oaks Blvd
X St
American River Dr
Mck inley Blvd
Elvas Ave
21St St
Fulton Ave
PowerInnRd
Norwood Ave
Eastern Ave
Grove Ave
I Street Brg
CenterPkwy
Freeport Blvd
Danbrook D r
Broadway
19Th St
Watt Ave
65ThSt
16Th St
29Th St
12Th St
9Th St
10Th St
30Th St
15Th St
Alhambra Blvd
GreenhavenDr
Florin Rd
H St
Hovnanian Dr
TruxelRd
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
Ethan Way
W El Camino Ave
College Town Dr
Brookfield Dr
Regency ParkCir
Engle Rd
13Th St
Gloria Dr
47Th Ave
Seamas Ave
Cottage Way
Harvard
St
Pocket Rd
Roseville Rd
Walnut Ave
AuburnBlvd
E Stockton Blvd
L St
T ower Brg
Westlake Pkwy
Capitol Mall
Arena Blvd
Edison Ave
Kiefer Blvd
MissionAve
French Rd
W St
T elevision Cir C St
I St
P St
5ThSt
3Rd St
Bridgecross Dr
65Th
StreetExpy
San Juan Rd
Azevedo Dr
Alta Arden Expy
SWattAve
Northrop Ave
Howe Ave
Meadowview Rd
Silver Eagle Rd
Exposition Blvd
Del Paso Rd
Curtis Dr
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Elsie Ave
Fruitridge Rd
Munroe St
N Bend Dr
N12Th St
Gateway Park Blvd
Natomas
Blvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
46Th St
W Elkhorn Blvd
N Market Blvd
Elkhorn Blvd
Gerber Rd
S Land Park Dr
14Th St
Florin
PerkinsRd
American River
E
CommerceWay
Folsom Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
Levee Rd
Hurley Way
35Th Ave
Arden Garden
N Park Dr
E Levee Rd
Laguna Blvd
Lone Tree Rd
Metro Air Pkwy
Power Line Rd
ElCentro
Rd
Hedge Ave
Garden Hwy
Map 25: Emergency Evacuation
Shelters and FEMA Flood Zones
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Church
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School
Senior Citizen Center
Repetetive Loss Area
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control improvements)
500 Year Flood Zone
Sacramento City Limit
Water0 1 2½ Mile
1 23
4 5
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Land
ParkDr
Grand Ave
N
orthborough Dr
J St
Sheldon Rd
N
16Th
St
K St
NorthgateBlvd
39Th
St
43Rd Ave
N St
Sutterville Rd
Arden Way
StocktonBlvd
Rush River Dr
Cosumnes River Blvd
Q St
Richards Blvd
Marconi Ave
NatomasCentralDr
Riverside Blvd
Bruceville
Rd
Elder Creek RdFranklin Blvd
Club Center Dr
RioLindaBlvd
Windbridge Dr
Jackson Rd
Valley Hi Dr
24ThSt
El Camino Ave
59Th
St
HavensideD
r
La Riviera Dr
Fair Oaks Blvd
X St
American River Dr
Mck inley Blvd
Elvas Ave
21St St
Fulton Ave
PowerInnRd
Norwood Ave
Eastern Ave
Grove Ave
I Street Brg
CenterPkwy
Freeport Blvd
Danbrook D r
Broadway
19Th St
Watt Ave
65ThSt
16Th St
29Th St
12Th St
9Th St
10Th St
30Th St
15Th St
Alhambra Blvd
GreenhavenDr
Florin Rd
H St
Hovnanian Dr
TruxelRd
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
Ethan Way
W El Camino Ave
College Town Dr
Brookfield Dr
Regency ParkCir
Engle Rd
13Th St
Gloria Dr
47Th Ave
Seamas Ave
Cottage Way
Harvard
St
Pocket Rd
Roseville Rd
Walnut Ave
AuburnBlvd
E Stockton Blvd
L St
T ower Brg
Westlake Pkwy
Capitol Mall
Arena Blvd
Edison Ave
Kiefer Blvd
MissionAve
French Rd
W St
T elevision Cir C St
I St
P St
5ThSt
3Rd St
Bridgecross Dr
65Th
StreetExpy
San Juan Rd
Azevedo Dr
Alta Arden Expy
SWattAve
Northrop Ave
Howe Ave
Meadowview Rd
Silver Eagle Rd
Exposition Blvd
Del Paso Rd
Curtis Dr
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Elsie Ave
Fruitridge Rd
Munroe St
N Bend Dr
N12Th St
Gateway Park Blvd
Natomas
Blvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
46Th St
W Elkhorn Blvd
N Market Blvd
Elkhorn Blvd
Gerber Rd
S Land Park Dr
14Th St
Florin
PerkinsRd
American River
E
CommerceWay
Folsom Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
Levee Rd
Hurley Way
35Th Ave
Arden Garden
N Park Dr
E Levee Rd
Laguna Blvd
Lone Tree Rd
Metro Air Pkwy
Power Line Rd
ElCentro
Rd
Hedge Ave
Garden Hwy
Map 26: Industrial
Facilities and FEMA
Flood Zones
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Water0 1 2½ Mile
TOC
1 23
4 5
Del Paso Blvd
Raley Blvd
Land
ParkDr
Grand Ave
N
orthborough Dr
J St
Sheldon Rd
N
16Th
St
K St
NorthgateBlvd
39Th
St
43Rd Ave
N St
Sutterville Rd
Arden Way
StocktonBlvd
Rush River Dr
Cosumnes River Blvd
Q St
Richards Blvd
Marconi Ave
NatomasCentralDr
Riverside Blvd
Bruceville
Rd
Elder Creek RdFranklin Blvd
Club Center Dr
RioLindaBlvd
Windbridge Dr
Jackson Rd
Valley Hi Dr
24ThSt
El Camino Ave
59Th
St
HavensideD
r
La Riviera Dr
Fair Oaks Blvd
X St
American River Dr
Mck inley Blvd
Elvas Ave
21St St
Fulton Ave
PowerInnRd
Norwood Ave
Eastern Ave
Grove Ave
I Street Brg
CenterPkwy
Freeport Blvd
Danbrook D r
Broadway
19Th St
Watt Ave
65ThSt
16Th St
29Th St
12Th St
9Th St
10Th St
30Th St
15Th St
Alhambra Blvd
GreenhavenDr
Florin Rd
H St
Hovnanian Dr
TruxelRd
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
Ethan Way
W El Camino Ave
College Town Dr
Brookfield Dr
Regency ParkCir
Engle Rd
13Th St
Gloria Dr
47Th Ave
Seamas Ave
Cottage Way
Harvard
St
Pocket Rd
Roseville Rd
Walnut Ave
AuburnBlvd
E Stockton Blvd
L St
T ower Brg
Westlake Pkwy
Capitol Mall
Arena Blvd
Edison Ave
Kiefer Blvd
MissionAve
French Rd
W St
T elevision Cir C St
I St
P St
5ThSt
3Rd St
Bridgecross Dr
65Th
StreetExpy
San Juan Rd
Azevedo Dr
Alta Arden Expy
SWattAve
Northrop Ave
Howe Ave
Meadowview Rd
Silver Eagle Rd
Exposition Blvd
Del Paso Rd
Curtis Dr
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Elsie Ave
Fruitridge Rd
Munroe St
N Bend Dr
N12Th St
Gateway Park Blvd
Natomas
Blvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
46Th St
W Elkhorn Blvd
N Market Blvd
Elkhorn Blvd
Gerber Rd
S Land Park Dr
14Th St
Florin
PerkinsRd
American River
E
CommerceWay
Folsom Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
Levee Rd
Hurley Way
35Th Ave
Arden Garden
N Park Dr
E Levee Rd
Laguna Blvd
Lone Tree Rd
Metro Air Pkwy
Power Line Rd
ElCentro
Rd
Hedge Ave
Garden Hwy
Map 27: Public
Safety Facilities and
FEMA Flood Zones
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control improvements)
500 Year Flood Zone
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Water0 1 2½ Mile
1 23
4 5
Del Paso Blvd
Raley Blvd
Land
ParkDr
Grand Ave
N
orthborough Dr
J St
Sheldon Rd
N
16Th
St
K St
NorthgateBlvd
39Th
St
43Rd Ave
N St
Sutterville Rd
Arden Way
StocktonBlvd
Rush River Dr
Cosumnes River Blvd
Q St
Richards Blvd
Marconi Ave
NatomasCentralDr
Riverside Blvd
Bruceville
Rd
Elder Creek RdFranklin Blvd
Club Center Dr
RioLindaBlvd
Windbridge Dr
Jackson Rd
Valley Hi Dr
24ThSt
El Camino Ave
59Th
St
HavensideD
r
La Riviera Dr
Fair Oaks Blvd
X St
American River Dr
Mck inley Blvd
Elvas Ave
21St St
Fulton Ave
PowerInnRd
Norwood Ave
Eastern Ave
Grove Ave
I Street Brg
CenterPkwy
Freeport Blvd
Danbrook D r
Broadway
19Th St
Watt Ave
65ThSt
16Th St
29Th St
12Th St
9Th St
10Th St
30Th St
15Th St
Alhambra Blvd
GreenhavenDr
Florin Rd
H St
Hovnanian Dr
TruxelRd
MarysvilleBlvd
Main Ave
Ethan Way
W El Camino Ave
College Town Dr
Brookfield Dr
Regency ParkCir
Engle Rd
13Th St
Gloria Dr
47Th Ave
Seamas Ave
Cottage Way
Harvard
St
Pocket Rd
Roseville Rd
Walnut Ave
AuburnBlvd
E Stockton Blvd
L St
T ower Brg
Westlake Pkwy
Capitol Mall
Arena Blvd
Edison Ave
Kiefer Blvd
MissionAve
French Rd
W St
T elevision Cir C St
I St
P St
5ThSt
3Rd St
Bridgecross Dr
65Th
StreetExpy
San Juan Rd
Azevedo Dr
Alta Arden Expy
SWattAve
Northrop Ave
Howe Ave
Meadowview Rd
Silver Eagle Rd
Exposition Blvd
Del Paso Rd
Curtis Dr
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Elsie Ave
Fruitridge Rd
Munroe St
N Bend Dr
N12Th St
Gateway Park Blvd
Natomas
Blvd
Bell Ave
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
46Th St
W Elkhorn Blvd
N Market Blvd
Elkhorn Blvd
Gerber Rd
S Land Park Dr
14Th St
Florin
PerkinsRd
American River
E
CommerceWay
Folsom Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
Levee Rd
Hurley Way
35Th Ave
Arden Garden
N Park Dr
E Levee Rd
Laguna Blvd
Lone Tree Rd
Metro Air Pkwy
Power Line Rd
ElCentro
Rd
Hedge Ave
Garden Hwy
Map 28: Transportation
Facilities and FEMA
Flood Zones
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500 Year Flood Zone
Sacramento City Limit
Water0 1 2½ Mile
TOC
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
97 Emergency Evacuation and Response
As the severity and frequency of floods across the Sacramento region and beyond, municipalities throughout the state will increasingly rely on emergency evacuation and response systems.
Municipalities can expect an increased demand for emergency response/staff and social services , the need for more cooling/clean air/evacuation centers, and the need for expanded roadway capacity in the event of an evacuation.
Sacramento may experience increased demand for its fire protection services. While the urban - wildland interface in the city is not extensiv e, there will likely be an added strain on local Sacramento firefighting resources as the fire department is called to respond to fires across the region and State. Wildfires also exacerbate the poor air quality conditions already experienced in California’s Central Valley. Smoke and other air pollutants generated by wildfires can lead to increased need for medical attention and services among affected vulnerable populations, such as those with pre-existing medical conditions like asthma or populations that spend a lot of time outdoors including outdoor workers and unsheltered homeless people.
Climate change is expected to bring more frequent and severe heat waves, flooding, and drought to the Sacramento region. Wildfires around the Sacr amento region can have significant air quality impacts within the city. This in turn requires more social and medical support services which include public cooling and clean air centers and evacuation centers. Additional social support infrastructure will require more public dollars from the City to operate, maintain, and properly engage with residents to advertise services. Public cooling centers are crucial facilities that provide cool shelter to prevent heat-related illness. Similarly, healthy air centers provide respite when there is poor ambient air quality, particularly when there are active wildfires nearby. Finally, pre - designated evacuation facilities are essential to ensure the safety of Sacramento’s population in an event of a flood or wildfire.
Increased levels of homelessness and higher housing costs have been reported following major California wildfires. Displaced residents from neighboring communities also have the potential to increase demand for social support services in Sacramento. Reductions in housing stock and increases in local demand may increase housing prices and exacerbate housing insecurity, evictions, and homelessness among lower income individuals and families.
The primary natural hazard that would cause the City to begin a large-scale evacuation is a flood.
Evacuation during a natural hazard event may result in the evacuation of hundreds or hundreds of thousands in Sacramento. Realtime information and GIS-operated mapping is posted to numerous public-facing s ites during large-scale evacuation events, following procedures established in the City’s Evacuation Plan (an annex of the City of Sacramento Emergency Operations Plan ). If available to public safety officials, evacuation information may be provided in multiple languages.
Emergency preparedness resources are available to the public both online and distributed during community events. The movement of evacuating vehicles during a large-scale evacuation requires extensive traffic control to maximize the use of roadway capacity and expedite safe escape from hazards. A transportation analysis identifies critical roadway segments and intersections that are not expected to flood and recommend specific traffic control measures and/or roadway modifications to help alleviate the anticipated problems in these areas. Special care should be given to transport vulnerable populations, such as the elderly or persons with access and functional needs.
Broadway
DonJulioBlvd
BrucevilleRd
Riverside Blvd
16T
h St
Alta Arden Expy
Richard s Blvd
59Th
St
Elk Grove Blvd
15T
h St
10T
h St 19T
h St
J St
3Rd
St
5T
h St
Madison A ve
Meadowview Rd
21StSt
El Camino Ave
Florin
PerkinsRd
X St
47Th Ave
W
att Ave
Garfield Ave
Sutterville Rd
W
alnut
Ave
Fulton Ave
GardenHwy
TruxelRd
FairO
aks Blvd
N
orwood Ave
French Rd
A St
L St I St
N St
P St 29T
h St
San Juan Rd
ElCentro
Rd
N
orthgate
Blvd
HoweAve
Eastern
Ave
Sims Rd
Marconi Ave
Del Paso Rd
Franklin
Blvd
Main Ave
W El Camino Ave
Sheldon Rd
Stockton
Blvd
AuburnBlvd
12T
h St
Arden Way
W Elkhorn Blvd
Kiefer Blvd
Laguna Blvd
Power Inn
Rd
Raley Blvd
Del Paso Blvd
N
atom
asBlvd
M
arysville
Blvd
Big Horn Blvd
FreeportBlvd
Bradshaw Rd
Calvine Rd
Mack Rd
Florin Rd
Folsom Blvd
Elk Grove Florin Rd
Arena Blvd
Bell Ave
HillsdaleBlvd
CenterPkwy
E
CommerceW
ay
65Th St
Roseville Rd
Elkhorn Blvd
D
wightRd
W
aterman Rd
Fruitridge Rd
N Market Blvd
Exposition Blvd
Bader Rd
65T
h Street Expy
Gerber Rd
Bond Rd
Jackson Rd
Grant Line Rd
Power Line Rd
Elder Creek Rd
Cosumnes River Blvd
Sacramento City Limit
Water
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Communities, Opportunity
and Promise Zones
0 1 2½ Miles
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
99 4 Adaptive Capacity
The chapter describes the climate change readiness landscape in California and addresses the vulnerabilities discussed in Chapter 3 by identifying responsible agencies at the federal, state, regional, and local levels and potential gaps in existing adaptation strategies. This chapter also includes a discussion of Sacramento’s capacity to adapt and respond to those risks caused by climate change in an effort to improve resilience.
4.1 Climate Change Readiness Landscape
STATE LEGISLATION AND GUIDANCE
The State of California has adopted several legislative actions to mitigate the onset of climate change and prepare for its impacts. Passed in 2016, SB 379 requires that, beginning January 1, 2017, all cities and counties in California include climate adaptation and resiliency strategies in the safety element of their general plan as part of the general plan revision process. The climate adaptation update must include community goals, policies, and objectives that are informed by a climate change vulnerability assessment ,233 as well as measures for addressing climate vulnerabilities. To assist with these requirements, the State of California has also established programs and guidance for climate change adaptation. These include the California Adaptation Planning Guide and Adaptation Clearinghouse,234 SB 246 (2015),235 and AB 1482 (2015).236 Collectively, these plans and policies identify the key climate impacts most likely to affect California, provide guidance on how to analyze climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation opportunities as part of the community planning process, and help local and regional governments and agencies collaborate to identify and implement equity-promoting adaptation strategies.
Additionally, in 2018 the State of California published the Fourth Climate Change Assessment, including the Sacramento Valley Regional Report .237 Primary climate impacts discussed in the report include warming air and water temperatures, more extreme heat waves, drier landscapes, less snow, variable precipitation and seasonal shifts, more intense droughts and floods, higher delta water levels, incr eased risk of wildfire, and loss of ecosystem habitat. The report concludes that public health challenges will arise in the form of an increased number of extremely hot days, the spread of infectious diseases, and reductions in air quality, with the young, elderly, and members
233 ResilientCA, SB 379. Oct 29 2019: https://resilientca.org/projects/bf4c7799-3157-4cf0-ba4d-894f1ddcdf7a/. 234 Adaptation Clearinghouse, California Climate Adaptation Planning Guide. June 2020: https://resilientca.org/apg/ 235 Adaptation Clearinghouse, California SB 246 – Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Program. Oct 29 2019:
https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/resources/california-sb-246-integrated-climate-adaptation-and-resiliency- program.html.
236 Adaptation Clearinghouse, California AB 1482: Climate adaptation strategy. Oct 29 2019:
https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/resources/california-ab-1482-climate-adaptation-strategy.html. 237 Benjamin Houlton and Jay Lund, California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment - Sacramento Summary Report (University of California, Davis: 2018). October 3 2022: https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019- 11/Reg_Report-SUM-CCCA4-2018-002_SacramentoValley_ADA.pdf.
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of disadvantaged communities most vulnerable. The report includes recommendations for reducing climate change risks, including developing climate -smart buildings and more accessible public cooling centers, fire reduction practices, enhanced emergency preparedness with a focus on disadvantaged communities, and land use planning practices that focus on extreme floods and drought.
REGIONAL AGENCY PLANS AND EFFORTS
Many agencies in the Sacramento region have already taken concrete steps toward addressing climate change vulnerability and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Key regional climate change plans, assessments, and programs are summarized below.
Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG)
• Sacramento Region Transportation Climate Adaptation Plan (2015). Highlights key climate change phenomena likely to influence the transportation system throughout the Sacramento region, as well as strategies and actions that Sacramento-area governments can take to ensure that transportation assets are adaptable. Transportation sectors and infrastructure types considered include roadways, railways, bridges, walking and biking, drainage, traffic flow, public transit, buildings and facilities, and traffic controls.238 • SACOG Vulnerability and Criticality Assessment (2020) . Establishes a better understanding of extreme weather and climate change threats to the region’s transportation system. Expected changes in wildfire, riverine flooding, sea level rise, storm surge in the Sacramento -San Joaquin River Delta, and extreme heat are identified as hazards that pose significant risks to portions of the regional transportation system.239 • SACOG Project-Level Adaptation Strategies Guidance Document (2020). Building on the findings of the Vulnerability and Criticality Assessment (above), this study examines risks facing individual transportation assets in greater detail and evaluates potential adaptation strategies at an asset-scale.240
County of Sacramento
• Sacramento County Climate Action Plan Strategy and Framework Document (2011).
Describes actions that the County has already taken or has planned to take in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. The Plan discusses climate
238 Sacramento Area Council of Governments, 2015.
239 Sacramento Area Council of Governments, Vulnerability and Criticality Assessment (June 2020). August 25 2022:
https://www.sacog.org/sites/main/files/sacog_vulnerability_and_criticality_assessment_report.pdf 240 Sacramento Area Council of Governments, Project-Level Adaptation Strategies Guidance Document (June 2020).
August 25 2022: https://www.sacog.org/sites/main/files/sacog_project- level_climate_adaptation_strategies_for_transportation_guidance_report.pdf.
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actions in terms of five sectors: transportation and land use, energy, water, waste management and recycling, and agriculture and open space.241 • Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the Sacramento County Climate Action Plan: Communitywide Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (Communitywide CAP) (2017). Provides an overview of the primary and secondary threats associated with climate change and identifies the ones most likely to affect Sacramento County. The assessment identifies population subgroups, community functions, and structures that are most sensitive to each of the climate impacts.242 • Sacramento County Multi-Jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (2021).
The County’s 2021 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) updates 2016 LHMP and addresses hazards posed by climate change. The Plan identifies drought and water shortage, extreme heat, and wildfire as hazard sources that are highly influenced by climate change; dam failure, flooding, levee failure, and wildfires are identified as hazards of high significance (widespread potential impact). The LHMP recommends County- and City- level hazard mitigation actions to address these hazards.243 • Sacramento County Climate Action Plan (2022). The Sacramento County Climate Action Plan details specific measures that will be implemented in Sacramento County by 2030 to reduce communitywide GHG emissions and also includes an adaptation plan that recommends actions to reduce the community’s vulnerability to the anticipated impacts of climate change.244 The County’s CAP is based on the 2011 Framework Document (above).
Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District
• Community Wildfire Protection Plan (2014). Addresses wildfire risk within the district’s service territory by providing community education materials to reduce residential wildfire risk. 245
Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)
• Climate Readiness Assessment and Action Plan (2016). Highlights the key steps that SMUD has taken to respond to climate change threats, including a climate vulnerability
241 County of Sacramento, Climate Action Plan: Strategy and Framework Document (November 9, 2011). May 12 2020:
https://planning.saccounty.net/PlansandProjectsIn-
Progress/Documents/Climate%20Action%20Plan/CAP%20Strategy%20and%20Framework%20Document.PDF. 242 Ascent Environmental, 2017.
243 County of Sacramento, Sacramento County Multi-jurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (September 2021). August 25 2022:
https://waterresources.saccounty.gov/stormready/Documents/LHMP%202021/Executive%20Summary%20and%20T OC.pdf.
244 County of Sacramento, Climate Action Plan (February 2022), August 25 2022:
https://planning.saccounty.net/PlansandProjectsIn-
Progress/Documents/Climate%20Action%20Plan/Revised%20Final%20Draft%20CAP_February%202022.pdf 245 Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District, “Community Wildfire Protection Plan” (2014). August 25 2022:
https://metrofire.ca.gov/files/915bebc83/cwpp+brochure_front.pdf.
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assessment for SMUD’s critical assets such as power plants, substations, and transmission and distribution lines.246
• Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (2018). Identifies and introduces strategies for reducing environmental and man -made hazards that have the potential to impact SMUD’s customers and energy delivery infrastructure. The hazard mitigation plan discusses climate change hazards explicitly, as well as hazards associated with secondary climate change impacts such as fire and flooding.247
• Wildfire Mitigation Plan (2022). The 2022 wildfire mitigation plan (WMP) is the comprehensive update to the initial plan adopted in 2019 to construct, maintain, and operate SMUD’s electrical facilities to minimize the risk of wildfire posed by those facilities.
The plan includes vegetation management programs, inspection and maintenance programs, protocols for deactivating automatic reclosers and for de-energizing power lines in severe weather conditions. It also identifies priority customers, including first responders and local agencies, healthcare providers, water and telecommunication facilities, and groups that assist vulnerable populations.248 Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) • Sacramento Metropolitan Air District Climate Change Protection Program. Provides outreach and support for local, regional, state, and federal initiatives addressing climate change. Program efforts focus on reducing g reenhouse gas emissions and helping the Sacramento region prepare for the effects of climate change. SMAQMD assesses new construction and development projects for greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, provides financial assistance for resident s to replace wood burning stoves, and has partnered with ZipCar, Mutual Housing California, and the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency to bring electric vehicle car sharing to multifamily and low-income housing communities as part of the first low-income EV-share program in the State.249 Regional Water Management
Water Forum
The Water Forum was created in 1993 by the City and County of Sacramento in response to increasingly conflicting water demand and environmental needs. In 2000, stakeholders came together to sign the Water Forum Agreement, forming a partnership between local governments, water managers, business and agricultural leaders, citizen groups, and environmentalists collaborating to provide a reliable and safe water supply for the region’s economic health and planned development through the year 2030, in addition to p reserving the fishery, wildlife,
246 Sacramento Municipal Utility District, 2016.
247 Sacramento Municipal Utility District, 2018.
248 Sacramento Municipal Utility District, Wildfire Mitigation Plan (2022). August 25 2022: https://www.smud.org/- /media/Documents/In-Our-Community/Safety/Wildfire-Safety/2022-SMUD-Wildfire-Mitigation-Plan.ashx. 249 Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, “Keeping Cool in the Capital Region: Capital Region Urban Heat Island Mitigation Project,” (2020). October 3 2022: https://urbanheat-smaqmd.hub.arcgis.com/ TOC
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recreational, and aesthetic values of the lower American River. The Water Forum helps guide cohesive regional groundwater management across the North, Central, and South subbasins in the Sacramento area.250
There are seven elements of the Water Forum Agreement that are endorsed and implemented by signatories of the Water Forum Agreement: increased surface water diversions, actions to meet customers’ needs while reducing diversion impacts in drier years, support improved fi shery flow releases from Folsom Reservoir, habitat management, w ater conservation, the groundwater management, and the Water Forum Successor Effort.
Regional Water Authority
The Regional Water Authority (RWA) is a joint powers authority formed in June 2001, representing 24 water providers and agencies in the greater Sacramento region that seek to serve, represent, and align the interests of regional water providers and stakeholders to improve water supply reliability, availability, quality, and affordability.251 RWA’s Strategic Plan 2018+, published in 2013, established goals to guide effective regional water resources management, including developing a Regional Water Reliability Plan, implementing the American River Basin Integrated Regional Water Management Plan, increasing education and outreach, and expand ing regional water regulatory efforts to protect water supply reliability. 252 RWA has since had recent success including participating in the regional conjunctive use program that supports reduced diversions from the American River in dry years, undertaking preparation of the American River Basin Integrated Regional Water Management Plan, developing the Regional Water Efficiency Program, providing assistance for local water suppliers to implement the Water Forum Agreement, and funding water supply, water quality, and environmental restoration projects through more than $68 million of state and federal grant funds.253 Sacramento Groundwater Authority
The Sacramento Groundwater Authority (SGA) is a joint powers authority that manages the groundwater basin in Sacramento County north of the American River, encompassing the southern one-third of the North American Subbasin. SGA is an essential partner of the Water Forum Agreement of 2000, a key component of which is a regional program to manage and conjunctively use groundwater and surface water to help meet water needs through 2030, while reducing diversions from the lower American River during environmentally sensitive times such as droughts.
In 2021, SGA and other groundwater sustainability agencies of the North American Subbasin prepared a groundwater sustainability plan, pursuant to the State’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. Based on a water b udget of the Cosumnes -South American -North American
250 Water Forum, “About Us.” October 3 2022: https://www.waterforum.org/stakeholders/about-the-water-forum/ 251 Regional Water Authority, “About.” October 3 2022: https://rwah2o.org/about-rwa/ 252 Regional Water Authority, Strategic Plan 2018+ (2013). October 3 2022: https://rwah2o.org/wp- content/uploads/2016/02/RWA-Strategic-Plan-2018.pdf.
253 Regional Water Authority, “Regional Water Authority Success.” October 3 2022: https://rwah2o.org/about- rwa/regional-water-authority-success/
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subbasins, there is a current surplus of water, which is projected to continue into the future but in lesser amounts. However, future conditions modeled with a moderate climate change scenario estimate a future deficit of about 3,500 acre- feet per year. To address this deficit, the North American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan evaluated a conjunctive use project that has a net benefit of reducing groundwater pumping by 5,000 acre- feet per year, using primarily existing infrastructure and funding by public water suppliers. The planned Natomas Cross Canal project will also improve flood protection and provide habitat for aquatic species. There are five management actions in the plan: continue developing the Sacramento Regional Water Bank; improve well permitting programs throughout the subbasin to protect domestic wells, groundwater-dependent ecosystems, and interconnected surface water; proactively coordinate with land use agencies; improve data collection and communication with domestic and other shallow well owners; and continue monitoring and assessment of groundwater-dependent ecosystems.254 Sacramento Central Groundwater Authority
The Sacramento Central Groundwater Authority (SCGA) is one of six groundwater sustainability agencies that manages the long -term sustainable groundwater yield of the South American Subbasin in Sacramento County between the American and Cosumnes Rivers. In 2006, the SCGA developed the Central Sacramento County Groundwater Management Plan, which assesses water supply and demand, incorporating water conservation measures from the Water Forum Agreement to reduce demand, in addition to assessing risks to groundwater quality. 255 This plan establishes a groundwater extraction threshold of 273,000 acre- feet per year, sets minimum groundwater elevations within all areas of the subbasin consistent with the Water Forum, protects against potential subsidence and adverse impacts to surface water, and identifies water quality objectives for constituents of concern. As of 2018, SCGA continues to be under the groundwater yield threshold.256
The South American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan, published in October 2021, found that groundwater usage will continue to be sustainable over the next twenty years as long as planned recycled water, recharge, and other projects are implemented. These projects will raise groundwater levels above current levels, maintain storage volumes, and protect ecosystems, interconnected surface water, and shallow well users despite projected climate change conditions that will increase groundwater use. Implementing activities identified in the plan include: ongoing monitoring and annual reporting on conditions in the subbasin; public engagement and outreach; regional coordination; development and implementation of a shallow well protection and monitoring program; development of a regional water bank; coordination with land use and water supply
254 Sacramento Groundwater Authority, North American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan. December 2021:
https://www.sgah2o.org/programs/groundwater-management-program/groundwater-management-plan/ 255 Sacramento Central Groundwater Authority, Central Sacramento County Groundwater Management Plan (February 2006). October 3 2022: https://scgah2o.saccounty.gov/documents/CSCGMP_final.pdf 256 Sacramento Central Groundwater Authority, 2018 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act Annual Report – South American Subbasin (5-021.65) (March 2019). October 3 2022:
https://scgah2o.saccounty.gov/Documents/2018%20SCGA%20Annual%20Report%20South%20American%20Subba sin%205-021.65_20180329.pdf.
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agencies to promote consistency with the plan; coordination with regional agencies to develop updated climate change projections; and preparation of a five-year update to the plan (in 2027).257 Regional San
In 1973, the County and City of Sacramento joined forces with the City of Folsom to form Regional San, which assumed responsibility for regional wastewater conveyance and treatment. Regional San’s contributing agencies include the Sacramento Area Sewer District and the cities of Sacramento, Folsom, and West Sacramento. Located in Elk Grove, the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant (SRWTP) is connected to approximately 111 miles of interceptor pipelines. In 2021, the average effluent flow at the SRWTP was about 115 million gallons per day.258 The SRWTP is geographically located in an area with flood risk from high stages from Beach-Stone Lakes and Morrison Creek, and may be vulnerable to a Sacramento River levee failure near Freeport. In coordination with the Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency, Regional San constructed its own levee system in the late 1990’s as part of the south Sacramento County Streams Flood Control Project. The levee system is designed to protect the SRWTP from a 200- year flood event.
Regional San’s Harvest Water Program (formerly known as the South County Ag Program) is designed t o provide safe, reliable supply of tertiary -treated water for crop irrigation, reducing groundwater pumping, supporting habitat protection efforts, and providing near -term benefits to the Sacramento -San Joaqui n Delta. This program supports regional and State water supply reliability through groundwater storage and conjunctive use, with the potential to deliver up to 50,000 acre- feet per year of drought- resistant recycled water in lieu of pumping groundwater , resulting in an increase in groundwater storage by approximately 225,000 acre-feet within 10 years and up to 370,000 acre- feet over the course of the project. Such efforts will also serve to improve water quality by increasing in-stream flows in the Cosumnes River.259 Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA)
The Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA) was formed at the directive of the State Legislature in 1989 to address the Sacramento area’s vulnerability to catastrophic flooding. This vulnerability was exposed during the record flood of 1986 when Folsom Dam exceeded its normal flood control storage capacity and several area levees nearly collapsed under the strain of high water pressure on levees from the storm. Formed under a Joint Exercise of Powers Agreement, SAFCA’s board is comprised of the City of Sacramento, County of Sacramento, County of Sutter, American River Flood Control District and Reclamation District No. 1000.
SAFCA is responsible for the planning and implementation of major capital flood control improvements in the Sacramento area by providing the local cost-share to support construction of
257 South American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Agencies, South American Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan – Final, (October 29, 2021). October 3 2022:
http://www.sasbgroundwater.org/assets/pdf/resources/complete/FinalPDFs/SASbGSP_FrontEnd- ExecSumm_FINAL_10292021.pdf
258 Regional San, “About Us.” October 4 2022: https://www.regionalsan.com/about-us 259 Regional San, “Harvest Water.” October 4 2022: https://www.regionalsan.com/harvest-water City of Sacramento
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those projects. Day-to-day operations and maintenance of the flood control system is provided by various Local Maintaining Agencies (LMAs).
Central Valley Flood Protection Plan
The Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) is DWR’s flood risk management plan for the Central Valley, developed in accordance with the Central Valley Flood Protection Act of 2008.
Although flood management in the valley has improved considerably since 2008, climate change will exacerbate flood risk in the region. The 2022 CVFPP Update 260 evaluates progress made since major State bonds in 2007 and recommends future management actions, focusing on climate resilience, performance tracking, and alignment with other State efforts. The update continues to develop priorities to improve flood risk management in the Central Valley in the face of climate change, using new information, updated science, and innovative tools. 261
LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE READINESS
Greenhouse Gas Reduction Efforts
The City of Sacramento has a long -standing commitment to foster sustainability in government operations and community activities. Since adoption of the City’s first Sustainability Master Plan in 2007, the City has led by example with internal projects that reduce reliance on fossil fuels while reducing operating costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. General Plan policies commit the City to continue striving for ongoing reductions in municipal and community GHG emissions through regular reviews and updates of the City’s GHG emissions inventory at least once every five years to track Sacramento's progress towards its climate action goals. To date, GHG inventories have been completed for 2005, 2011, and 2016, as described further below.
In 2010, the City completed its first Climate Action Plan for Internal Operations (IO CAP) with strategies to reduce GHG emissions in City operations 22 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. In 2012, the City adopted its first community- wide Climate Action Plan (CAP), which in cluded a target and strategies to achieve a 15 percent reduction below 2005 levels by 2020 for all sources of GHG emissions within the community as a whole. The IO CAP was later updated in 2016. The 2016 inventory counted emissions produced from residentia l and commercial electricity and natural gas usage, transportation, water delivery, wastewater treatment, and solid waste within City limits.
In March 2015, the City adopted the 2035 General Plan Update, which included new sustainability targets and an updated community -wide CAP integrated with the General Plan. The targets
260 California Department of Water Resources, Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 Update Public Draft (April 2022). October 3 2022: https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/Flood- Management/Flood-Planning-and-Studies/Central-Valley-Flood-Protection-Plan/Files/CVFPP- Updates/2022/2022updateCVFPP22_layout_v9_plus_Append_BC.pdf. 261 California Department of Water Resources, “Central Valley Flood Protection Plan.” October 3 2022:
https://water.ca.gov/Programs/Flood-Management/Flood-Planning-and-Studies/Central-Valley-Flood-Protection- Plan.
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included reducing GHG emissions from internal operations by 22 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 (consistent with the 2010 IO CAP target), along with a long-term objective of achieving GHG reductions of 83 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. Reduction targets were established in the 2035 General Plan Policy ER 6.1.6, which also calls for maintenance and implementation of the IO CAP.
Current Climate Action, Sustainability and Resilience Efforts The City of Sacramento already engages in a number of activities to reduce climate change vulnerability and promote adaptation across the city. These climate action efforts are in accordance with the City’s vision statement to become a national model of sustainable, equitable growth, and community development. Guiding principles to aid the City of Sacramento in becoming leader in the field include sustainable and responsible growth, resilience and climate action.
Key to these efforts is the Mayors’ Commission on Climate Change, which began in November 2018 as an effort between the City of Sacramento and City of West Sacramento to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, in line with State GHG reduction goals. The final report from the Commission was published in June 2020 and r ecommended climate actions address the climate risks that threaten public health and safety in the two cities, with a focus on equity as well as foundational principles and strategies including urgency, advocacy, accountability, education, and financial and economic sustainability.262
In 2019, the City of Sacramento adopted Resolution No. 2019- 0465, Declaring a Climate Emergency and Proposing Mobilization Efforts to Restore a Safe Climate Background. 263 In addition to recognizing the importance of the Mayors’ Commission on Climate Change, this resolution underlined the role that the 2040 General Plan Update and CAP would play in achieving the City’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2045 and emergency actions needed toward emissions elimination by 2030 as mandated by SB 32 (2016), the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2016. Building on the recommendations from the Mayors’ Commission on Climate Change, the City’s Climate Emergency Declaration, and the previous (2012) CAP, the findings from this Vulnerability Assessment have informed development of the Adaptation chapter of the CAAP and the goals, policies, and implementing actions of the Safety Element of the 2040 General Plan.
In addition to these recent and ongoing efforts, the following City departments and local agencies provide services that generally address the risks posed by climate change effects identified in Chapter 2:
262 Mayors’ Commission on Climate Change (Local Government Commission), Achieving Carbon Zero in Sacramento and West Sacramento: Final Report (June 2020). August 28 2022: http://www.cityofsacramento.org/- /media/Corporate/Files/CDD/Planning/Long-Range/Climate-Action-Plan/Mayors-Commission-on-Climate- Change-Final-Report.pdf?la=en
263 City of Sacramento, Resolution No. 2019-0465 “Declaring a Climate Emergency and Proposing Mobilization Efforts to Restore a Safe Climate Background, Adopted December 10, 2019. August 29 2022:
https://www.cityofsacramento.org/-/media/Corporate/Files/CMO/Climate-Change/R2019-0465-Declaring-a- Climate-Emergency-and-Proposing-Efforts-to-Restore-a-Safe-Climate-Background.pdf?la=en.
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• The City of Sacramento Community Development Department has adopted a number of tasks and responsib ilities related to climate change adaptation and hazard mitigation.
These include coordinating with relevant organizations and agencies to consider the impacts of urbanization and climate change on long -term natural hazards and safety, and engaging in land use planning and development.
• The City of Sacramento Department of Utilities engages in many activities related to flood management and response, including the development of the Flood Recovery Plan and providing public information about flood response p lanning. The Department has participated in efforts to map and assess vulnerability to sea level rise, study climate change effects on drinking water quality, address aquifer shortage, study groundwater recharge, and monitor and respond to algal blooms. Th e Department maintains floodplain development standards and has conducted drainage improvement projects to address the presence of repetitive loss properties. The Department also monitors upstream snowpack and river water supply and use. This information is used to determine when to draw from the Sacramento River, the American River, and/or groundwater wells. The Department is also active in the City’s response to drought. The Department’s Water Conservation Office provides residents and businesses with information and rebates on drought tolerant landscaping, irrigation upgrades, and leak repairs. The Department also engages in education and outreach activities.
• The Office of Emergency Management conducts emergency preparedness outreach to the public through community engagement events and online resources. The office has led the development of the Emergency Operations Plan, Recovery Plan, Joint Information Center Addendum to the Operational Area Joint Information System Plan, and proactive emergency planning and coordination for access and functional needs populations within the City of Sacramento. Other recent activities include the development of a new emergency operations center and conducting emergency and disaster preparedness exercises.
• The City of Sacramento Department of Public Works has many responsibilities, including the planning, building, and maintenance of most transportation infrastructure and street landscaping, providing recycling services, managing the City’s vehicle fleet and buildings, and leading the City’s electric vehicle initiatives. The Department builds walking and bicycling facilities and collaborates with transit providers to ensure that Sacramento’s transportation landscape is robust, accessible, and sustainable. The D epartment also manages the city’s urban forest through planting, protecting, and maintaining trees in the city right-of-way, parks and public spaces.
• The Sacramento City Fire Department implements a fire education and information program, participates in fuel reduction along the American River Parkway, and conducts outreach on the effects of smoke on air quality. Spare the Air Sacramento and the City of Sacramento Public Information Office engage in similar educational activities regarding the effects of smoke on air quality.
• The City of Sacramento Department of Youth, Parks, and Community Enrichment undertakes a variety of sustainability and resiliency efforts. The Department acquires new green space and manages parks and recreation programs, open space, community gardens, and multi-use trails. These natural features provide health and wellness opportunities for TOC
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residents and visitors, flood protection, natural resource protection and wildlife habitat, and offer respite from excess urban heat. The City provides connectivity between parks and the multi-use trail and off -street bikeway network. Public community gardens encourage community building and community stewardship of the City’s green infrastructure. New tree plantings in parks are focused on under- canopied areas of Sacramento to expand the urban tree canopy. The Department also manages community centers which act as resiliency hubs during extreme weather events and other emergencies.
Community Climate Programs and Projects
The Sacramento region is hom e to a number of organizations that are actively involved in addressing climate issues in Sacramento. These organizations include community -based groups, larger non -profit organizations with Sacramento offices, and regional coalitions . These organizations are involved in a range of climate -related efforts include tree planting, air quality monitoring and education, urban agriculture, research, and disaster preparedness and recovery.
Sacramento is also home to the Sacramento Community Emergency Response Team, an all-risk, all-hazard training program that educates volunteer community members about disaster preparedness and trains them in basic disaster response skills, in partnership with the City of Sacramento Fire Department.
4.2 Existing Adaptive Capacity
This section highlights the federal, State, regional, and local responsible agencies and ongoing actions that they are taking to help communities mitigate and adapt to each of the climate change effects identified in Chapter 2 in relationship with the vulnerabilities presented in Chapter 3.
EMERGENCY EVACUATION AND RESPONSE
Emergency management is an essential component of the City’s “whole- community” approach to emergency preparedness and response, including for climate-change-induced emergencies. Indeed, many risks and vulnerabilities are directly tied to the ability of service providers to adequately protect public safety and wellbeing in the face of an emergency event. The City of Sacramento has a comprehensive emergency management system that supplements the services and programs already set in place by the State. Together, these efforts build a strong foundation for the City’s existing adaptive capacity.
State
The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) manages more than 50,000 miles of State highway and freeway lanes and oversees programs for highway transportation, mass transportation, and transportation planning, among others. In 2021, Caltrans published the California Transportation Plan 2050 (CTP 2050), which recognizes the increasing risk that climate change poses on the State’s transportation system. In particular, the State recognizes that climate change preparedness will require resilient infrastructure, reliable emergency response systems, and clean transportation options. One of the main safety objectives of the plan is to improve emergency preparedness, response, and recovery on the transportation system as these incidents become more City of Sacramento
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frequent and severe. Enhancing transportation system resiliency is also tied with equity, and CTP 2050 utilizes vulnerability assessments to identify and manage the specific risks posed by climate change. It also calls for expanded funding for implementing State, local, and regional climate mitigation and adaptation plans; increasing multi -jurisdictional collaboration on resiliency and adaptation efforts; creating a statewide transportation risk management plan; and increasing access to data, technical tools, and information sharing to make communities stronger and more resilient to future disruptions.264
Originally developed in 2005 and last updated in 20 22, Caltrans’ Strategic Highway Safety Plan (SHSP) is a statewide, coordinated traffic safety plan that also addresses emergency response, which has been identified as one of 16 stakeholder-identified “challenge areas” where State resources and efforts will be focused. The Emergency Response strategy seeks to improve emergency response times and actions to address this challenge area. Past accomplishments toward this goal include increasing emergency medical services and fire personnel taking traffic incident management training and revising the California Emergency Medical Services Authority (EMSA) Manual #145 with the latest information. The SHSP also seeks to improve emergency response by leveraging co- benefits from actions addressing the emerging technologies challenge area. 265 In California, day-to-day emergency medical services system management is the responsibility of local and regional agencies. However, the State EMSA is charged with providing leadership in developing and implementing statewide emergency medical services systems and standards. EMSA also is responsible for promoting disaster medical preparedness and, when required, coordinating and supporting the state’s medical response to major disasters. Some of EMSA’s primary program responsibilities include emergency medical services systems planning and development, emergency medical services for children, emergency medical dispatcher standards and emergency medical services communications systems, and disaster medical services preparedness and response. 266 The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) res p o n d s t o a n d a i d s i n t h e recovery from emergencies within the State of California under the authority of the California Services Act, California Disaster Assistance Act, and the Stafford Act. Cal OES is responsible for managing disaster recovery and providing assistance to local governments, special districts, certain nonprofit organizations, individuals, and businesses and agricultural communities impacted by disasters. It provides technical support to reduce the costs and streamline the process of recovery efforts and serves as a liaison with local, State, and federal agencies, legislators, nonprofit organizations, and the general public. It develops and maintains state-level emergency plans, assists local governments in developing their own plans, and is also responsible for the design, installation, and repair of the statewide public safety radio communication system.
264 California Department of Transportation, California Transportation Plan 2050 (February 2021). August 31, 2022:
https://dot.ca.gov/-/media/dot-media/programs/transportation-planning/documents/ctp-2050-v3-a11y.pdf 265 California Department of Transportation, California Safe Roads: Strategic Highway Safety Plan. August 31, 2022:
https://dot.ca.gov/-/media/dot-media/programs/safety-programs/documents/shsp/2022-shsp-full-report-2020-2024- a11y.pdf.
266 California Emergency Medical Services Authority, “About the EMS Authority.” August 31, 2022:
https://emsa.ca.gov/about_emsa/#Dept_Description
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The California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA) contains the CalEPA Emergency Response Management Committee, which coordinates preparedness for and responses to environmental emergencies in California. CalEPA’s climate -related work includes analysis of the State’s cap-and-trade program, studying urban heat islands, and operating the CalEPA Environmental Justice Task F orce. The Environmental Justice Task Force coordinates the compliance and enforcement work of CalEPA’s boards, departments, and offices in areas of California that are burdened by multiple sources of pollution and are disproportionately vulnerable to its effects.
The California Department of Public Health contains the Emergency Preparedness Office, which maintains and manages the Medical and Health Coordination Center, distributes funds to local health departments for disaster planning, and operates the California Health Alert Network. The Department also manages the Climate Change & Health Equity Program, whose goal is to systematically integrate work from climate change planning and public health planning with policies and principles that promote equity. The Department w orks with local, State, and national partners to assure that climate change mitigation and adaptation activities have beneficial effects on health while not exacerbating preexisting health disparities.
Local
The City of Sacramento participates in the County’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) which serves to reduce or eliminate long -term risk to people and property form hazards. In addition to providing representation to the Sacramento County Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee, the City formulated their own internal planning team to support broader planning process requirements. The City participated in developing their community profile and hazard profile and vulnerability assessment to develop strategies. Key mitigation actions specifically designated to the City of Sacramento are to integrate the LMHP into the City’s General Plan, enhance community outreach and education around hazard preparation and mitigation, consider impacts of long-term natural hazard safety, maintain a critical facility database, evaluate and mitigate critical facility risks, retrofit repetitive loss properties and historical buildings, construct a new Emergency Operation Center (EOC), protect transportation infrastructure, develop regional emergency and disaster preparedness exercises, establish heating and cooling centers in high priority areas, and adopt floodplain development standards. LHMP suggests a variety of plans to develop and adopt that include a generation plan for pump stations, disaster housing plan, disaster resistant business plan, enhanced emergency plan for special needs populations, and a post-disaster action plan.
The City’s Office of Emergency Management (SacOEM) provides comprehensive emergency management services for the City of Sacramento, including coordin ation of City -wide preparedness, planning, response, recovery, and mitigation activities. It is the mission of SacOEM to prepare City government and the community for potential natural, human- caused, and technological emergencies. Programs facilitated by the Office include Flood Ready , which strives to build a flood resilient community through preparedness and mitigation. Resources provided to residents include floodplain information, flood warning systems, flood insurance information, and floodplain constr uction requirements. Similarly, the Sacramento Ready program, which was renewed in 2022, provides downloadable guides for quick evacuation, family disaster communications, and a personal safety plan. Residents can also sign up for Sacramento Alert, which City of Sacramento
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is an emergency alerts notification system to disseminate public safety information rapidly and efficiently.
SacOEM also manages the City’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC) which is staffed with City personnel who are trained to support first responders and community members in the event of a disaster. EOC also will assign paratransit and other transportation resources for the disabled or medically frail to the areas with greatest needs. In addition, EOC will designate task forces of buses, paratransit, and/or animal care vans as emergency vehicles able to enter evacuation zones.267 These programs in turn can help maximize roadway capacity.
The City’s 2023 Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) addresses planned response to emergency situations associated with natural disasters and human -caused incidents. The Plan outlines emergency management operations, including personnel and departments responsible for managing an incident in the city. Operations in response to a disaster include preparedness and monitoring ac tivity, alert and warning, proclaiming an emergency, city -wide coordination, and consideration of people with access and functional needs.
To facilitate the coordination and flow of mutual aid, the State has been divided into six OES Mutual Aid Regions (a nd three administrative regions). The City of Sacramento is in Mutual Aid Region IV. The City maintains an Automatic Aid agreement with Sacramento County and the City of West Sacramento. Under the automatic aid agreement, all emergency calls are routed through a central dispatch center and the nearest resource responds to the call. Statewide, California’s mutual aid system is designed to ensure that adequate resources, facilities, and other support are provided to jurisdictions whenever their own resources prove to be inadequate to cope with a given situation.
Local jurisdictions have the discretion to give and receive aid when needed, while state government is obligated to provide available resources to assist local jurisdictions in emergencies.
Sacramento’s emergency alert and assistance systems include the Emergency Alert System, fire and law enforcement vehicle loudspeakers, Reverse 9-1-1, Sacramento 2-1-1, and agency websites. The Emergency Alert System is designed to provide emergency information via ra dio and television.
The City of Sacramento’s Reverse 9-1- 1 system can send pre- recorded messages to individual households and businesses with phone numbers listed in the 9-1- 1 database. The Community Services Planning Council, a non -profit organization, op erates 2 -1-1 in Sacramento County.
Individuals can call into the system to request information on an emergency situation.
Evacuation procedures are most effective when residents are aware of the emergencies that are most likely to affect them and have ample time and support to prepare their own emergency plans. The City of Sacramento, in conjunction with Sacramento County, has a variety of systems and procedures in place to protect residents and visitors and to plan for, avoid, and respond to a hazard event. These include the provision of pre- disaster public awareness programs including a local emergency alert program, Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) program, and Crisis
267 City of Sacramento Office of Emergency Services, City of Sacramento Evacuation Plan for Floods and Other Emergencies (2008). August 26 2021: https://sacramentoready.saccounty.net/Documents/sac_018943.pdf.
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Action Team (CAT). Sacramen to County’s Office of Emergency Services maintains countywide emergency evacuation, operations plans, mass shelter, hazard mitigation, and severe weather plans and provides guidance to residents creating personal emergency preparedness plans. The City Manager’s Office of Emergency Management coordinates communication, planning, preparedness, response, and recovery pertaining to emergency events and manages the City’s Emergency Operations Center (EOC).
TEMPERATURE INCREASE
Increasing temperatures will result in more frequent and severe heat waves and warm nights that will be felt especially in urban heat islands. Given the high level of impact, vulnerable populations including children, older adults, individuals with disabilities, low-income households, outdoor workers, cost-burdened households, households living in substandard housing conditions, linguistically isolated households, and communities of color will be particularly at -risk. Critical facilities such as energy, transportation, and utility infrastructure as well as medical services may also be strained or physically damaged as a result of extreme heat.
General Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts
The County of Sacramento has engaged in a variety of climate -preparedness activities, some of which were in itiated in partnership with the City. The Sacramento County Office of Emergency Services provides emergency-related information to the public. The Department of Public Health provides community-wide information for how to stay safe during periods of extreme heat. This includes warning signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, how to protect against heat- related illness, descriptions of heat-related illness among older adults, and how to help someone with a heat-related illness. Through the Sacramento Ready Program, the County has also designated public cooling centers in the event of a heat emergency. The Sacramento County General Plan also contains policies to promote cool communities in order to reduce urban heat island effects. Some of these policies include streetscaping, preserving habitats and open space, restoring natural areas, and reducing urban sprawl.
The City of Sacramento is also in the process of preparing an Urban Forest Plan. This Plan will address the protection, maintenance, sustainability, and enhancement of Sacramento’s tree canopy.
The City’s longstanding emphasis on the importance of its beautiful tree canopy will aid its adaptation to the worsening effects of urban heat. In 2003, the City published parking lot tree shading and maintenance guidelines. These guidelines are meant to help achieve the City’s parking lot tree shading ordinance which requires that all new parking lots include tree plantings designed to result in 50 percent shading of parking lot surfaces within 15 years. Guidelines include information about tree planting practices, drainage and water quality options, irrigation plans, landscape plans, grading, and maintenance.
The Sacramento Tree Foundation is a community -based non -profit organization working to support a healthy tree canopy for Sacramento. Ongoing programs include the Shade Tree Program in partnership with SMUD, which provides free shade trees to residents and businesses, which can help cool buildings and reduce air -conditioning use in summer. All Sacramento County residents and SMUD customers can qualify for a free landscape assessment and up to 10 free shade trees. An additional program formed from the Foundation’s partnership with SMUD is Trees for City of Sacramento
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Community Spaces. This program provides free consultation and trees to qualifying public spaces, such as schools and parks. The Shady Eighty tool provided by the foundation is a tree guide to help residents choose the best trees for their yard. Users can input characteristics such as size, water needs, shape, growth rate, and flowers to determine the species that best work for their property.
Vulnerable Populations
The California Department of Community Services and Development (CSD) administers the federally funded Low- Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). This program provides two types of assistance: Home Energy Assistance and Energy Crisis Intervention. The first type of assistance is a direct payment to utility bills for qualified low- income households. The second type of assistance is available to low-income households that are in a crisis. CSD also offers free weatherization assistance, such as cooling system repairs to low -income households.268 These financial assistance programs can help vulnerable populations cool their households if they experience health hazards from urban heat.
In addition, the Sacramento County Department of Human Assistance (DHA) facilitates numerous programs to mitigate and adapt to the effects of urban heat. The severe weather sheltering program activates five cooling center locations for all community members during heat waves. Homeless outreach partners also issue motel vouchers to highly vulnerable unsheltered indivi duals.
Transportation will be provided to and from the hotel and individuals participating in the program are allowed to bring partners, pets, and belongings to respite facilities.
The Sacramento Municipal Utilities District (SMUD) provides utilities services within the City of Sacramento. SMUD has engaged in a number of climate readiness initiatives, including the creation of Climate Readiness Action Plan in 2016. The report lists several on -going or planned climate change-related initiatives that target increased resiliency to periods of drought and extreme weather events. Specific strategies related to urban heat include the Regional Urban Heat Island Initiative, SMUD Cool Roof Incentive, and the SMUD Shade Tree Program. SMUD’s Regional Urban Heat Island Initiative focuses on reducing urban heat island effects through the identification of areas prone to urban heat island development and projected impacts on electrical load and health. This work will enable mitigation measures to be more effectively targeted and used to their greatest effect. The Cool Roof Incentive offers rebates to residential customers who use cool roofing technologies. Under this program, a single family could earn a $300 rebate (or more) for incorporating a cool roof and save an estimated $50 per year on their annual cooling bill. However, program utilization has more than doubled in 2016 yet is still quite modest. SMUD also provides low-income assistance and non -profit discount through the Community Resource Project. The Energy Assistance Program Rate (EAPR) provides discounts on monthly bills. Customers with the lowest household income, based on the federal poverty level, will receive the largest discount.
Priority may be given to applicants based on the greatest need and income, vulnerable populations and households with young children. The Shade Tree Program started through a partnership between SMUD and the Sacramento Tree Foundation to provide more than 1,000,000 free shade trees to residents in the Sacramento area. This program encourages residents to strategically plant
268 City of Sacramento, City of Sacramento Housing Element Appendix H-6 Opportunities for Energy Conservation.
September 7 2021: https://www.cityofsacramento.org/-/media/Corporate/Files/CDD/Planning/Long- Range/Housing-Element/H6_Sac-HE_AdoptionDft_Energy-Conservation_Aug2021.pdf?la=en.
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vegetation around their homes to reduce energy consumption. Homeowners must agree to plan and care for the trees.
As part of the NASA DEVELOP program in Fall 2020, the City partnered with the NASA Langley Research Center to study the effects of urban development on urban heat islands in the City of Sacramento and the potential for urban interventions to reduce risks, particularly in areas with the greatest vulnerability. The study used satellite imagery and input from City staff and Dyett & Bhatia, the 2040 General Plan Update consultant, to model current and future (2040) conditions under different scenarios —including buildout of the General Plan —down to a neighborhood scale. In turn, the results of this study informed policy development for the Environmental Justice and Environmental Resources Element of the General Plan. Specifically, urban heat priority intervention areas have been identified to target resources where they will be most effective and benefit those who are most at risk.
The Healthy Sacramento Coalition was initiated in 2011 by the Sierra Health Foundation in an effort to develop and implement a chronic disease prevention plan for Sacramento County. The goals of the Healthy Sacramento Coalition were to reduce tobacco use, obesity, death and disability due to chronic disease, reduce health disparities, build a safe and healthy physical environment, and improve the social and emotional well -being of Sacramento County residents. In 2016, the Coalition broadened its focus to include the social determinants of health and refined its vision to address health inequities in Sacramento. In 2018, the Coalition released Advancing Health Equity and Inclusive Growth in the Sacramento Region, highlighting inequities in income, employment, and educational opportunities in Sacramento.
Critical Facilities
As technologies advance, so too do the State’s increasingly stringent building energy efficiency standards. The State of California’s Title 24 Building Standards Code includes requirements for energy efficiency standards for residential and nonresidential buildings , and any new critical facilities would be subject to these requirements as it would apply in the code, such as for emergency evacuation centers (e.g., schools, community centers, churches, etc.) and public safety facilities (i.e., police and fire stations). Part 6 covers topics that include thermal emittance, three- year aged reflectance, and Solar Reflectance Index (SRI) of roofing materials used in new constr uction and re-roofing projects. These requirements apply to nonresidential, high-rise residential, and low-rise residential buildings across California. In addition, roofing products used for meeting the Title 24, Part 6 requirements must be rated and labeled by the Cool Roof Rating Council (CRRC). 269 However, it is important to note that these cool roof requirements only apply to new construction, retrofits, or additions, rather than existing buildings.
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION
As described previously, flo oding is Sacramento’s most significant natural hazard, and climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of storm events that can induce flooding. Climate change is projected to lead to an increased percentage of precipitation in the American River
269 Cool Roof Rating Council, California Building Energy Efficiency Standards (Title 24, Part 6). September 7 2021:
https://coolroofs.org/resources/california-title-24.
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watershed falling as rain in the fall and early winter, increasing the likelihood of flood events in these months. This change in precipitation patterns is also expected to result in reduced snowpack, reduced summer river flows, and increased summer drought and reduced groundwater supply.
Drought and flooding conditions are high- priority impacts in Sacramento, and groups who are most at risk include older adults, individuals with disabilities, low- income households, cost - burdened households, linguistica lly isolated households, and communities of color. Critical facilities that are at risk include water supply, wet utilities and stormwater infrastructure, locations within flood hazard zones (Maps 24 through 27), and Sacramento’s urban forest, which has multiple benefits including cooling and urban heat island mitigation.
General Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides guidance, resources and support to prepare for, plan, and manage disasters. They share a wealth of federal resources to provide a national-level response, while implementing resources and programs designed to help local authorities respond to and mitigate the impacts of disasters, including the extreme weather events associated with climate change. FEMA conducts mapping of flood zones and administers the National Flood Insurance Program. The National Flood Insurance Program aims to reduce the socioeconomic impact of flooding on private and public structures through the provision of flood insurance and by encouraging communities to adopt and enforce floodplain management regulations. FEMA also provides general disaster response and hazard mitigation assistance through such entities as the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, the Flood Mitigation As sistance Program, and the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program.
Furthermore, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) may supplement state, tribal, territorial, and local governments with flood or coastal storm preparedness and response services and advanced planning measures designed to reduce the amount of damage caused by flooding. This assistance is in accordance with Public Law 84 -99. When flooding occurs, it is not just a local USACE district or office that responds but may include personnel and other resources across the nation.
The California Natural Resources Agency is responsible for California EcoRestore, an initiative implemented in coordination with State and federal agencies to advance the restoration of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The Agency leads and coordinates the administration’s climate adaptation policy and its natural resources climate policy and has helped guide the State’s efforts towards increasing the resilience of water systems. Adaptation strategies primarily include floodplain and tidal habitat restoration and enhancement projects.
The Delta Stewardship Council is responsible for adopting and implementing a comprehensive management plan for the Sacramento -San Joaquin Delta. The Delta Plan is intended to help State and local agencies provide a more reliable water supply while protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem. Policies and recommendations to meet these goals include the development of a Delta Science Plan, regional water self -reliance, water efficiency and management laws, water supply reliability guidelines, groundwater management plans, improved water conveyance infrastructure, expanded water storage, habitat and floodplain restoration projects, flood insurance requirements, and continued monitoring of existing conditions.
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In addition, the City of Sacramento partnered with Sacramento County, other incorporated nearby communities, and numerous special districts to update the countywide Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) in 2021. Flood, drought, earthquake, and severe weather are all addressed in the plan.
While climate hazards such as these cannot be prevented, an LHMP forms the foundation for a community's long-term strategy to reduce disaster losses by breaking the repeated cycle of disaster damage and reconstruction. The plan aims to mitigate these hazards, such as f loods, while providing the tools and information for residents to be able to better anticipate, adapt, and recover from such events.
The State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) engages in a number of climate change-related actions, including the expan sion of recycled water to increase drought resilience, adoption of regulations to increase the capture of urban stormwater, and efforts to reduce flood risk. SWRCB has been involved in the Central Valley Region Climate Change Work Plan. Key focus areas of this plan include addressing impacts due to drought and flooding, issues related to groundwater quality, and changes in surface water supply, with a focus on disadvantaged communities.
Vulnerable Populations
A number of federal agencies provide direct relief and recovery support for drought impacts, particularly geared to those working in the agricultural industry. Short- term drought relief and recovery programs include Disaster Assistance Programs, Environmental Quality Incentives Program, Emergency Watershed Protection Program, Rural Utilities Service Water and Environmental Programs, and Economic Injury Disaster Loans. Long -term drought relief and recovery programs include the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, Conservation Technical Assistance Program, Watersmart Drought Response Program, Watersmart Water and Energy Efficiency Grants, Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) Program, and the Watersense Program.
Critical Facilities
The California Department of Water Resources engages in flood management and flood emergency response programs. It developed the Flood Emergency Response Information Exchange to improve flood emergency preparedness, response, and recovery. The Department maintains levees and access roads under their jurisdiction through the Levee Repairs Program and has supported local efforts at reducing flood risks in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Deltas. The Department has been involved in the Bay Delta Conservation Plan, the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan, and the South Sacramento Streams Groups Projects. The Department also implements the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act and administers the California Statewide Groundwater Elevation Monitoring Program.
The Central Valley Flood Protection Board is the State regulatory agency responsible for ensuring that appropriate standards are met for the construction, maintenance, and protection of the flood control system. The Board issues encroachment permits, works with other agencies to improve flood protection structures, enforces removal of problematic encroachments, and monitors the Central Valley’s flood management system. In 2012, the Board adopted the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan. This Plan guides Califo rnia’s participation in managing flood risk along the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River systems. Primary goals of the Plan include identifying, City of Sacramento
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recommending, and implementing structural and nonstructural projects and actions that benefit flood-prone lands and formulating standards, criteria, and guidelines to facilitate implementation of flood protection interventions.
The County’s Department of Water Resources educates residents on flood risk and preparedness.
The County has also been involved in the South Sacramento Streams Groups projects to implement more than 265 acres of habitat enhancements and the flood control projects on Magpie Creek which includes the construction of a floodwall, levee, culvert, and acquisition and protection of a 72 -acre floodplain.
The Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA) provides regional flood control for the Sacramento Region. The overarching goal of their work includes strengthening the local levee system, improving the region’s ability to manage flood events via improved reservoir level management, and addressing erosion along the Sacramento River. Key programs under this Agency include:
• American River Common Features Project: USACE has begun construction for up to 11 miles of erosion protection along portions of both the north and south banks of the American River. Once completed, the cumulative flood control improvements will allow the levee system to safely handle sustained flows of up to 160,000 cubic feet per second in the event of an extreme flood event in the American River watershed. • Folsom Dam and Reservoir Joint Federal Program: To further increase flood control space in the reservoir, the USACE is raising the existing main dam and reservoir’s surrounding dikes by 3.5 feet. Construction began in 2019 and is nearly complete. • Natomas Basin Levee Improvement Program: By 2013, SAFCA and the state completed
18.3 of the 42 miles of levee improvements required to meet current flood control standards. In 2019, USACE began construction on the additional 24 miles of levee improvements necessary to provide a minimum 200- year level of flood protection to the Natomas Basin.
• Sacramento Weir and Bypass Project: USACE and the State of California are planning to widen the Sacramento Weir and Bypass to allow more water to enter into the Bypass system during flood events, thereby reducing the water surface elevation in the Sacramento River.
This work includes widening the existing weir by 1,500 feet and constructing a new two - mile-long setback levee along the Sacramento Byp ass. The first phases of construction began in 2020.
The City of Sacramento strives to build a flood resistant and resilient community through preparedness and mitigation projects. One such project is the City’s Repetitive Loss Area Analysis (RLAA). This analysis identifies five regions of repetitive loss that are prone to experiencing numerous flood events. These regions include South Natomas, Downtown East, Downtown West, Southeast Sacramento, and Sutterville/Meadowview. In addition, the City has identified total of 49 repetitive loss buildings in these regions. However, 28 of these buildings have already been mitigated with measures introduced by the City. Mitigation recommendations typically include green infrastructure, grading improvements, pipe and drain improvements, construction of floodwalls, elevating buildings, combined sewer system improvements, and storm readiness outreach programs.
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In 2020, City of Sacramento adopted an Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP). The purpose of the UWMP is to help water suppliers assess the availability and reliability of their water supplies and current and projected water use to help ensure reliable water service under different conditions.
The Plan details water use baselines, targets, and 2020 compliance; a water supply analysis; a water service reliability and drought risk assessment, a water shortage contingency plan; and demand management measures to increase the city’s resilience to droughts.
In August 2022, the federal Bureau of Reclamation published the Ameri can River Basin Study, which covers major water uses (municipal, agricultural, hydropower, recreation, flood control, and fish/wildlife), surface water uses from the American and Sacramento rivers, groundwater uses from North and South American groundwater basins, key reclamation facilities (Folsom and Nimbus dams and Folsom South Canal), and key regional facilities (Middle Fork Project 184, Sly Park Unit, and Upper American River Project). The study highlighted the growing imbalance between water demands and water supplies due to continued economic development, regulatory updates, and effects from climate change. Notably, changing climate conditions complicate operation of Folsom Reservoir. Severe drought conditions in late 2015, for example, resulted in the reservoir’s lowest recorded water level (135,000 acre- feet), and only three months later in March 2016, several moderate El Nino storms necessitated releases for flood control management. Such rapid shifts underline the need for effective flood risk management strategies and potential upgrades to Folsom Dam infrastructure in response to anticipated climate changes.270
WILDFIRE
There is low risk of wildfire itself as a climate change effect in Sacramento, but its secondary impacts on air, water, and soil quality have more direct implications for the city’s residents. In particular, smoke from wildfires in upwind high -risk areas such as the Sierras will affect the entire city and exacerbate ambient air pollution levels, especially affecting vulnerable populations such as children, older adults, individuals with disabilities, low- income households, outdoor workers, linguistically isolated households, and communities of color. Critical facilities that may be affected include clean air/evacuation centers and transportation infrastructure essential to emergency evacuation/response.
General Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts
FEMA provides general disaster response that can aid in wildfire hazard mitigation and prevention through such entities as the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program, and the Fire Management Assistance Grant Program. These grant programs help states, tribes, and territories invest in measures that mitigate wildfire disasters and create safer and resilient communities.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) manages fire prevention and response for the State of California. CAL FIRE oversees enforcement of California’s forest protection regulations, implements fuel management projects, participates in forest conservation
270 Bureau of Reclamation, American River Basin Study: Interior Region 10 – California-Great Basin, U.S. Department of the Interior, August 2022: https://www.usbr.gov/watersmart/bsp/docs/arbs/ARBS-Study.pdf City of Sacramento
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and management, and provides training and educational programs. CAL FIRE also engages in general emergency response activities.
The California Public Utilities Commission enfo rces rules and regulations to ensure that energy infrastructure and utility companies run a safe and reliable electric or communication system. The Commission reviews the wildfire mitigation plans of utilities and transmission owners. The Commission also examines investor-owned utilities’ public safety power shutoff processes during severe wildfire threat conditions.
Vulnerable Populations
The SMAQMD engages in a number of initiatives for protecting air quality. In cooperation with the California Air Resources Board (CARB), SMAQMD implements AB 617 (2017) by targeting air quality improvement efforts in communities disproportionately impacted by air pollution. This means sustained involvement in community -level air monitoring, the creation of community - specific emissions reduction plans, review of pollution control technologies, and provision of air quality improvement incentive programs. In 2018, SMAQMD nominated 10 communities in Sacramento for consideration under AB 617, which is a community -focused program to more effectively reduce exposure to air pollution and preserve public health. CARB selected the South Sacramento-Florin community to be one of the first 10 communities in California to develop and implement a community air monitoring plan. Since July 2019, sensors have been monitoring real- time air quality throughout the South Sacramento-Florin community as well as in the northwestern portion of the Fruitridge -Broadway area. From August 2020 to November 2021, SMAQMD deployed more advanced monitoring to collect air quality information measuring more types of toxic air pollutants, and professional-grade air monitoring is planned for the third phase of the plan in the near future. 271 Although the focus of AB 617 is to improve air quality in vulnerable communities affected by air pollution primarily resulting from industrial uses and goods movement, the air monitoring network could also be leveraged to implement protections against pollution due to smoke from wildfires.
However, air quality improvement efforts are not exclusive to the South Sacramento -Florin community selected by CARB. L ocal organizations such as United Latinos in South Area are also actively involved in community-based air monitoring. In 2020, SMAQMD conducted an updated suitability analysis that recommended 3 additional general community areas for the State’s Community Air Protection Program: North Sacramento, Oak Park/Fruitridge, and Meadowview.
These places scored in the top fifth percentile (i.e., most burdened by air quality issues), indicating that there are populations throughout Sacramento who are vulnerable to air quality impacts exacerbated by wildfire.
Fire Protection
The City of Sacramento is served by the Sacramento Fire Department (SFD). The SFD is a full - service fire department, with the responsibility for responding to and mitigating incidents involving fires, medical emergencies, hazardous materials, technical and water rescue within its service area.
271 Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, “Community Air Monitoring.” (March 9, 2022). August 29 2022: https://www.airquality.org/air-quality-health/community-air-protection/community-air-monitoring TOC
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The department also provides a full range of support services including fire prevention, public education, fire investigation, and domestic preparedness planning and response. The SFD’s operational mission and objective is to save lives, conserve property, and minimize environmental impact. To help meet this objective, SFD also participates in an automatic aid agreement with neighboring fire jurisdictions, as well as state and federal agencies.
The SFD provides fire protection services to the entire city which includes approximately 99.2 square miles within the existing city limits, as well as two contract areas that include 47.1 square miles immediately adjacent to the city boundaries within the unincorporated county. Contracted areas within SFD’s jurisdiction include the Pacific/Fruitridge and Natomas Fire Protection Districts.
SFD Headquarters operates from the Public Safety Center, located at 5770 Freeport Boulevard. This facility is also the headquarters for the Sacramento Police Department. Twenty- four fire stations are strategically located throughout the city to provide assistance to area residents and businesses.
Although each fire station operates within a specific response district encompassing the immediate geographical area around the station, all of the Sacramento County fire agencies (Sacramento Fire Department, Sacramento Metro Fire District, Sacramento International Airport Fire, Cosumnes Fire District, and the Folsom Fire Department) share an automatic aid agreement, known as boundary dropping, which means that the closest fire unit responds regardless of jurisdiction.
Increased incidence of wildfire across the region may tax SFD in the future.
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5 Conclusions
Overall, there are a variety of hazards and risks that are experienced in Sacramento that are likely to increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change. These risks include urban heat, flooding, drought, wildfire, infrastructure damage, and emergency evacuation and response. Certain populations face unequal exposures to climate hazards or have a reduced capacity to respond, adapt, and recover from these events. Vulnerable populations that require special consideration and support in climate action and adaptation planning include children (aged 14 and below), older adults (aged 65 and over), individuals with disabilities, low-income households, outdoor workers, cost-burdened households, linguistically isolated households, and communities of color.
5.1 Risk Assessment Summary
The risk assessment approximates Sacramento’s level of vulnerability to climate change hazards as well as its adaptive capacity for vulnerable populations to be able to respond and recover from these events. Generally, risks with high levels of vulnerability and low levels of adaptive capacity should be prioritized in terms of the development new strategies, policies, and actions for adaptation interventions, starting with aiming to protect and improve the livelihoods of the most vulnerable communities.
By midcentury, Sacramento is projected to experience between 21 and 26 extreme heat days per year and as many as eight four-day heat waves per year. Based on analysis from this Vulnerability Assessment, vulnerable populations have a very high vulnerability t o urban heat, especially if they reside in urban heat islands, and have a low level of adaptive capacity. Interventions to mitigate urban heat island effects tend to take time and may be costly, which lowers the city’s adaptive capacity.
Therefore, the development of new strategies, policies, and actions for urban heat interventions should be prioritized.
Both people and infrastructure have a high vulnerability to flooding. Sacramento is already flood - prone and climate change will increase flood risk due to more frequent and severe storms. Moreover, the majority of the City’s critical infrastructure exists in flood zones. Due to the high level of significance for flooding, there are numerous interventions already in place at the federal, state, regional, and local levels to protect the city from floods, including an extensive system of dams, levees, storm drains and pumps that protect the city and thus increase its adaptive capacity. However, as climate change increases flood risk, flood protection will need to be adaptively managed and improved.
Sacramento’s vulnerability to drought and water shortage is high, and there is an increased likelihood of future occurrence with climate change. Adaptive capacity is moderate due to existing and planned infrastructure and management practices. Drought can potentially impact the entire city, including the urban forest, which is needed to mitigate extreme heat and urban heat island impacts.
Sacramento has a moderate vulnerability to wildfire impacts. While major wildfire is not likely to directly impact the city, air pollution associated with wildfires can significantly reduce outdoor air quality and impact the health of vulnerable populations, who may have a very low adaptive capacity.
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6 Understanding Cal-Adapt and Key Scenario
Assumptions
Material in this section is adapted from technical support information provided by Cal-Adapt and available on the Cal-Adapt website (www.cal-adapt.org).
Understanding Climate Projections
The data presented in Cal -Adapt tools are projections of future climate. They are not weather predictions and should not be treated as such. Weather is the behavior of the atmosphere over short periods, such as days and weeks. Climate is the long -term behavior of the atmosphere, and it is almost always expressed in averages – for example, average annual temperature, average monthly rainfall, or average water equivalent of mountain snowpack at a given time of year.
Climate projections cannot predict what will happen on a given date in the future. But they can provide information about what to expect from the future climate in general. Climate projections can also predict how much more often (or less often) extreme events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall are likely to occur in the future. Howeve r, they cannot predict when those events will actually occur.
How Climate Projections Are Produced
Climate scientists create projections of future climate using powerful tools called global climate models. Global climate models are complex pieces of comput er software that crunch through thousands of mathematical equations representing the scientific theory of how the climate system works. They can be used to simulate climate over past periods or to run experiments, in which scientists impose certain conditions on the model to see how the climate system responds. A future climate projection is the product of global climate model experiments in which scientists impose upon the model some scenario of the future atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.
When climate scientists run a climate model, they divide the area of study into a grid, and the model performs calculations for each individual cell within the grid. The output from those calculations can then be visualized on a map.
The grid cells in most g lobal climate models are very large —from 100 to 600 square kilometers.
This coarse resolution is sufficient when scientists are studying climate on the global scale, but it is not very useful when trying to understand climate change on smaller scales. Present-day climate varies greatly from region to region in California, and so future climate will vary accordingly. But that detail is lost in the global climate models, in which all of California may be represented by just a few grid cells. To be able to plan for the future, higher-resolution projections of future climate are needed. Climate scientists can create these high-resolution projections by using various techniques to "downscale" global climate model output to finer spatial scales. The data in Cal- Adapt is taken from a selection of global climate models, and downscaled to about seven-kilometer resolution.
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Cal-Adapt allows users to visualize climate changes under any of ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) selected by California’s Climate Action Team for performance in California. Four of these models, HadGEM2 -ES (Warm/Dry), CNRM -CM5 (Cooler/Wetter), CanE SM2 (Average), and MIROC5 (Compliment), are designed as priority models. These GCMs are part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 5 and were developed to support the work of the United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Modeled data available on Cal-Adapt represent statistically downscaled GCMs using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method by Scripps Institution of Oceanography as part of State of California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.
About the Greenhouse Gas Scenarios
The main driver of human -caused climate change is emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are so called because they trap heat in the atmosphere, causing it to warm over time. Atmospheric warming in turn leads to other changes throughout the earth system. How much the climate changes in the future depends in large part on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted now and in the future. However, since emissions of greenhouse gases depend on a variety of different social, political, and economic factors, it is difficult to predict how they will change. However, scientists can formulate educated guesses about how greenhouse gas emissions might change and use those scenarios to create future climate projections.
Each tool in Cal- Adapt shows outcomes for two different greenhouse gas scenarios: a high- emissions scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise over the 21st century, and a low-emissions scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions level off around the middle of the 21st century and by the end of the century are lower than 1990 levels.
To address the uncertainty in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, Cal-Adapt allows users to visualize climate projections based on either of two possible emissions scenarios used in California’s Fourth Climate Assessment, originally appearing in the Fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Fourth Climate Assessment uses so -called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which encapsulate different possible future greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. RCP 4.5 is a “medium” emissions scenario that models a future where societies attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while RCP 8.5 is a higher baseline emissions scenario. Key assumptions underlying the RCP 8.5 scenario include rising emissions through 2050, which plateau around 2100. RCP 8.5 is commonly understood as a business -as-usual (BAU) scenario that would result in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations exceeding 900 parts per million by 2100 and a temperature increase of four to seven degrees Celsius (°C). RCP 4.5 is a scenario where TOC
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GHG emissions rise until mid -21st century and then decline, resulting in a CO 2 concentration of about 550 ppm by 2100272 and a temperature increase of two to four °C.273 Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Projections
As with any statement about the future, there is no way to be certain that climate projections are accurate. One source of uncertainty in future climate projections is human greenhouse gas emissions. Projected climate data may not prove to be accurate if the actual emissions pathway differs from the scenarios used to make the projections.
Another source of uncertainty in climate projections is the fact that different climate models —the tools used to simulate the climate system and produce future climate data—may produce different outcomes. There are more than 30 global climate models developed by climate modeling centers around the world, and they have different ways of representing aspects of the climate system. In addition, some aspects of the climate system are less well understood than others. Climate scientists are constantly working to improve their theories of the climate system and its representation in climate models. In the meantime, one way to account for model differences is to look at projections from as many different models as possible to get a range of possible outcomes. Scientists can then take the average of the values across the different models, and this average value is a more likely outcome than the value from any single model. The default visualizations in Cal -Adapt are based on the average values from a variety of models.
272 Bedsworth, L., Cayan D., Franco G., Fisher L., Ziaja S. (California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission). 2018.
Statewide Summary Report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Publication number: SUM-CCCA4- 2018-013.
273 Pierce D. W., Kalansky J.F., Cayan D.R., (Scripps Institution of Oceanography). 2018. Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment. California Fourth Climate Change Assessment, California Energy Commission. Publication Number: CNRA-CEC-2018-006.
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Sacramento, CA 95814
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