Item 17 2024-01550 Stockton Blvd Plan and Environmental Impact Report (LR24-001) [Noticed 10.11.2024] -- PART 1 — Sacramento City Council, October 22, 2024 (part 2 of 2)

Many residents in Colonial Heights area use this route for work, exiting San Francisco Blvd onto Stockton Blvd. Trying to turn right onto Stockton is difficult. Making a left turn is even more difficult. I can only imagine how much more difficult this will be with your new plan to have ONLY ONE LANE OF TRAFFIC available to commuters on Stockton Blvd in each direction, making it even more FRUSTRATING THAN IT IS NOW. To reiterate, I am wondering why the same plan as is proposed on the north side of Broadway cannot be implemented here as well. Your proposed plan will create a slower flow of traffic causing an added frustration to commuters south of Broadway. PLEASE RECONSIDER THIS PROPOSED PLAN to have ONLY TWO LANES for traffic, and to consider implementing the plan as indicated for the area north of Broadway. Email 10/26/2022 Mobility and Transportation A major challenge for people seeking housing and anti‐displacement support is a lack of a centralized group/website/resource center etc. where people can find all of the different services and resources in one place. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Community Engagement and Capacity Building Many people originally came to Stockton Blvd because of the lower cost of living relative to the rest of Sacramento; however, the area has been getting more expensive (see “Housing and Anti‐Displacement” themes below) Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Many people have deep roots in Stockton Blvd and have been living in the area for decades, raised their children in the area, etc. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Residents living in the are have immigrated from all over the world, including Latin America, Caribbean, Middle East, and Asia Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Large first or second generation population of residents. Families that moved here felt that they could build generational opportunities. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character The recurring theme in discussion was a preference for the area based on the cultural significance of the surrounding neighborhoods and businesses. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Little Saigon is a paragon for residents of the type of cultural identification, preservation and celebration that would like to continue to see supported. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Little Saigon came up (for obvious reasons) amongst most of the participants. Participants really liked the special designation of Little Saigon and wanted to see more visual representation to highlight the area, such as banners along the corridor, events like a night market and an arch over the blvd to welcome people to the area. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Participants have been waiting to see the Little Saigon Plaza turned into something advantageous for the community. The fact that it has remained vacant for so long is a sore point for residents. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Culture, Arts, and Community Character Safety concerns came up as the number one issue for residents. It’s top of mind and expansive in the types of safety concerns they had. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Environment, Public Health, and Safety Homelessness was also a large issue but folks were quick to suggest services instead of just sweeps. There was some cross‐over in responses between safety and homelessness. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Environment, Public Health, and Safety Prostitution was an issue that folks were concerned about that they wanted to see addressed with more services and enforcement. A lot of people didn’t understand why it was permitted or who was responsible for addressing it. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Environment, Public Health, and Safety Neighborhood beautification and updates, urban greening, and vacant lot development came up for residents. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Environment, Public Health, and Safety Cost of living has been rising dramatically in recent years, making it difficult for people to meet their basic needs Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Housing Living in the Stockton Blvd area has become more and more expensive, especially for those who moved to the area originally to experience a lower cost of living Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Housing The two most frequent themes that came up at La Superior were rental assistance and solutions for supporting unhoused members of the community. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Housing Comments Source Date Topic
Stockton Blvd has changed a lot over the years – there used to be a lot less businesses and a lot more vacant lots but more development has been coming to the area, which has brought more people to the area Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Inclusive Economic Development The shopping centers on the southern end of the corridor are a hub for community activity. The concentration of restaurants is a huge draw and they still want to see more, including various AAPI restaurants like Cambodian and Laotian. The grocery stores in particular are also a tremendous value because of the variety in the AAPI specialties. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Inclusive Economic Development Participants want to see more support for local businesses, both in terms of sustainability and in expanding the demographics of patrons to become more of a destination. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Inclusive Economic Development The La Superior store director shared that they have been sustaining their business independently – they have felt disconnected from the City and Stockton Blvd Partnership Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Inclusive Economic Development Cultural preservation, job growth, adult education/training, childcare, and more health centers rounded out the rest of the community’s suggestions on areas to address displacement of small business/residents in the community. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Inclusive Economic Development Mobility was another topic that came up with various areas of concern, such as shuttle service for the elderly, traffic improvements, more lighting, and more efforts to improve the ability of residents to walk around in their community. Some residents also said that they tended to shop or explore only areas near transit stops. Engagement Team Fall 2022 Outreach Summary 12/15/2022 Mobility and Transportation Inviting storefronts (visuals) Unknown Unknown Inclusive Economic Development Neighborhood Watch Program via Radio Operator Volunteers Email Unknown Environment, Public Health, and Safety Appendix B:

Economic Context
Report
B-1
Final Report
Stockton Boulevard
Specific Plan
Economic Context
Prepared for:

City of Sacramento
Prepared by:

Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS)
EPS #192166
February 9, 2021

Table of Contents

1. Introduction and Summary of Findings ...................................................... 1 Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Study Area ................................................... 1 Summary of Findings ..................................................................................... 6 Report Organization .................................................................................... 11

2. Study Area Profile .................................................................................. 13 Demographic Conditions .............................................................................. 13 Labor Force ................................................................................................ 26 Employment ............................................................................................... 30

3. Residential and Commercial Market Overview ............................................ 35 Residential Market Context ........................................................................... 35 Study Area Residential Market Conditions ....................................................... 36 Commercial Market Context .......................................................................... 49 Study Area Commercial Market Conditions ...................................................... 52 Conclusions ................................................................................................ 62

4. Future Growth and Market Demand .......................................................... 63 Residential Growth Projections ...................................................................... 63 Estimated Housing Demand .......................................................................... 65 Estimated Retail Demand ............................................................................. 68 List of Maps
Map 1-1 Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Defined Study Area .......................... 2 Map 1-2 Stockton Boulevard Study Area and Study Subareas ............................. 5 Map 2-1 Communities of Color Percentage of Total Population: Study Area ......... 17 Map 2-2 Median Household Income: City of Sacramento and Study Area ............ 23 Map 3-1 Median Housing Value: Owner-Occupied Household and Housing Tenure Majority: City of Sacramento and Study Area........................... 45 Map 3-2 Average Monthly Rent and Multi-Unit Dwellings as a Percentage of Total Dwelling Units: Study Area ...................................................... 48 List of Tables
Table 1-1 Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Study Area by Current Land Use Designation ....................................................................... 3 Table 2-1 Commute Patterns: Study Area and City of Sacramento ....................... 33 Table 3-1 Total Housing Units by Subarea ........................................................ 37 Table 3-2 Household Tenure Summary by Study Subarea .................................. 39 Table 3-3 Units in Housing Structures ............................................................. 41 Table 3-4 Median Home Sales Prices ............................................................... 44 Table 3-5 Median Rent Prices ......................................................................... 47 Table 4-1 Population and Household Estimates and Projections ........................... 64 Table 4-2 Households by Income Range: Study Area and City of Sacramento ....... 66 Table 4-3 New Study Area Household Demand by Income Level .......................... 67 Table 4-4 Study Area Demand from Incremental New Households ....................... 71 Table 4-5 Projected Supportable Retail Sales and Square Feet: Study Area ........... 72 List of Figures
Figure 2-1 Change in Population and Households and Persons per Household ......... 14 Figure 2-2 Race/Ethnicity Allocation: Study Area and City of Sacramento .............. 15 Figure 2-3 Median Age: Study Area and City of Sacramento ................................ 18 Figure 2-4 Age Range Distributrion Percentage Change ....................................... 19 Figure 2-5 Educational Attainment Study Area and City of Sacramento for the Population Aged 25+ ...................................................................... 20 Figure 2-6 Educational Attainment Study Subareas for the Population Aged 25+ ..................................................................................... 21 Figure 2-7 Higher Education Attainment Percentage Change for the Population Aged 25+ ...................................................................... 22 Figure 2-8 Study Area Household Income Distribution ........................................ 24 Figure 2-9 Study Area and City of Sacramento Household Income Distribution ....... 24 Figure 2-10 2018 Poverty Rate and Percentage Change in Poverty ......................... 25 Figure 2-11 Study Area Jobs by Industry ............................................................ 30 Figure 2-12 Study Area Employment Inflow-Outflow ............................................ 32 Figure 3-1 Housing Units by Year Built in the Study Area and Percentage of Total ... 37 Figure 3-2 Housing Tenure Percentage: City of Sacramento and Study Area .......... 40 Figure 3-3 Vacancy Rate Study Subarea and City of Sacramento .......................... 42 Figure 3-4 U.S. Unemployment Claims ............................................................. 50 Figure 3-5 City of Sacramento Highest At-Risk Jobs by Industry ........................... 50 Figure 3-6 Retail Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 54 Figure 3-7 Retail Total Vacant Inventory and Lease Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 55 Figure 3-8 Office Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 57 Figure 3-9 Office Total Vacant Inventory and Lease Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 58 Figure 3-10 Medical Office Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 60 Figure 3-11 Medical Office Total Vacant Inventory and Lease Rate Trends:

Study Area and City of Sacramento .................................................. 61

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Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
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1. Introduction and Summary of Findings
The City of Sacramento (City) initiated the process of preparing a specific plan and action plan for the Stockton Boulevard corridor and surrounding neighborhoods that will lead to an invested and vibrant Stockton Boulevard with equitable outcomes for existing residents and businesses. Through a comprehensive planning effort based on robust stakeholder involvement, appropriate technical analyses, and targeted economic development strategies, the Stockton Boulevard Plan (Plan) will provide residents and businesses with the opportunity to directly influence development and prioritize funding and resources to increase quality of life and improve social, financial, and health outcomes. The Stockton Boulevard corridor was specifically chosen based on myriad factors, including: numerous, currently vacant parcels along the corridor which present new development opportunities; the development of Aggie Square, a significant mixeduse project on the northern end of the corridor; its role as a major transportation corridor; and its location adjacent to several historically disinvested neighborhoods.

This report presents existing economic conditions and summarizes estimated real estate market demand for residential and nonresidential land uses in the broader Stockton Blvd Strategic Neighborhood Action Plan (SNAP) Study Area (see Map 1-1 for the boundaries of the SNAP Plan Area and Study Area). Key findings from this report, as well as findings from a forthcoming assessment of residential and nonresidential gentrification risk in the Study Area, stakeholder input, and other technical analyses will be used to inform actionbased strategies included as part of the Plan.

Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Study
Area
More than 100 years ago, Stockton Boulevard was constructed as the primary connector between the cities of Sacramento and Stockton, offering access for both automobiles and interurban train service, as well as local streetcar services to inner-ring neighborhoods (Colonial Heights and Colonial Acres).1 Train services ceased operations in the 1930s and streetcar services were stopped in the 1940s, likely based on declines in ridership. By the early 1960s, the construction of California State Highway 99 (Hwy 99) replaced Stockton Boulevard’s function as the primary regional transportation artery.2 1 Steinberg, Barbara, 2018. Falling in Love with Stockton Boulevard. Are You That Woman. [online] Available at: https://www.areyouthatwoman.com/2018/03/falling-in-love-withstockton-boulevard.html [Accessed January 2021]. 2 Ibid.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 2 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Map 1-1. Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Defined Study Area Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-23-2021_CLEAN.docx 3 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Today, Stockton Boulevard continues to serve as an important five-lane corridor, connecting downtown to south Sacramento and multiple diverse neighborhoods to the east and west of the corridor and accommodating one of Sacramento Regional Transit’s (RT) busiest bus routes.

Plan Area and Study Area Land Uses
The Stockton Boulevard Plan area comprises approximately 420 acres (424 parcels) with about 280 acres of commercially zoned property along a 4.8-mile segment of Stockton Boulevard within the City, spanning from Alhambra Boulevard to the north to the City’s southern boundary to the south. The Plan Area is estimated to include 60 vacant parcels totaling almost 49 acres, or 14 percent of the total acreage. See Table 1-1 for a summary of land uses in both the Plan Area and Study Area, which is described in more detail in the next section.

Table 1-1 Stockton Boulevard Plan Area and Study Area by Current Land Use Designation Item Parcels Acres Parcels Acres
Land Use
Residential 138 55.8 13.2% 24,854 4,240.2 73.4%
Commercial
Retail/Commercial 184 183.2 43.5% 573 335.2 5.8%
Office 43 68.7 16.3% 113 195.2 3.4%
Medical 12 31.1 7.4% 46 127.6 2.2%
Subtotal Commercial 239 283.0 67.2% 732 658.0 11.4%
Agriculture 0 0.0 0.0% 2 0.4 0.0%
Industrial 18 27.9 6.6% 110 192.8 3.3%
Public 10 40.7 9.7% 102 360.0 6.2%
Recreational 4 3.2 0.8% 9 7.5 0.1%
Other 15 10.8 2.6% 425 318.0 5.5%
Total 424 421.4 100.0% 26,234 5,776.9 100.0%
Source: Ascent Stockton Boulevard Plan Area; County of Sacramento; EPS. [1] Parcel and acreage information excludes Right-of-Way (ROW). [2]
Plan Area [1] [2] Study Area [1]
Land Use acreage in Plan Area includes an estimated 60 acres of vacant land with a range of residential and nonresidential zoning designations.
% of Total
Acreage
% of Total
Acreage
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 4 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx To evaluate the economic context of Stockton Boulevard and adjacent neighborhoods, the City and consultant team defined a Specific Plan Study Area (Study Area), which encompasses approximately 7,400 total acres comprising about 5,400 acres of land in the City and about 2,000 acres of land in Sacramento County (County), near the southern boundary of the Study Area.3 There are over 26,000 parcels in the Study Area consisting of about 5,800 acres (not including rights-of-way). The Study Area is bounded by U.S.

Highway 50 (Hwy 50) and the Sacramento RT Light Rail Gold Line to the north, Power Inn Road to the east, Morrison Creek to the south, and Highway 99 to the west. As of 2018, the Study Area contained over 86,000 residents (accounting for almost 17 percent of City residents), with almost 31,900 housing units (about 16 percent of the City’s housing supply), and 31,300 jobs (representing about 10 percent of total jobs in the City).

See Map 1-1 for the boundaries of both the Plan area and the defined Study Area.

The Study Area has been delineated into the following six Subareas to distinguish socioeconomic trends occurring within the Study Area: Elmhurst; Oak Park; Fruitridge Pocket; Tahoe & Colonial; Lemon Hill; and South of Fruitridge. See Map 1-2 for Subarea boundaries. All Subareas are within the City boundaries, except for Fruitridge Pocket and Lemon Hill, which both include portions of unincorporated Sacramento County. It is important to note these Subareas follow U.S. Census Tract boundaries rather than neighborhood boundaries and include multiple neighborhoods, as described below.4  The Elmhurst Subarea is bounded by Hwy 50 and the Light Rail Gold Line to the north, railroad tracks to the east, Broadway to the south, and Stockton Boulevard to the west. This Subarea is one of the smallest subareas with approximately 870 acres and contains neighborhoods in the northeastern portion of the Study Area and to the east of Stockton Boulevard, including Elmhurst, the east side of Med Center, Fairgrounds, the north portion of Tahoe Park, and a small portion of East Sacramento between the light rail tracks and Hwy 50. This Subarea contains the UC Davis Medical Center, the Shriners Hospital for Children, the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) headquarters, and the recently approved Aggie Square mixed-use innovation and research project, led by a public-private partnership consisting of UC Davis, Wexford Science & Technology, and GMH Capital Partners, and described in more detail later in this report.
 The Oak Park Subarea, considered one of the first suburbs of the City of Sacramento, is bounded by Hwy 50 to the north, Stockton Boulevard to the east, Fruitridge road to the south, and Highway 99 to the west. This Subarea includes the neighborhoods in the northwestern portion of the Study Area, including the west side of Med Center, North Oak Park, Central Oak Park, South Oak Park, and the easternmost portions of Curtis Park and North City Farms. This Subarea contains new 3 Note that the Study Area does not align with the northern and southern boundaries of the Plan Area because the Study Area uses Census Tract boundaries whereas the Plan Area uses parcel boundaries. See Map 1-2. 4 See Appendix C, Table C-1 for a list of Study Subarea by Census Tract.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 5 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Map 1-2. Stockton Boulevard Study Area and Study Subareas Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 6 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx development and redevelopment along Broadway, Pacific McGeorge School of Law, and a proposed 151-room hotel project located across from the UC Davis Medical Center.5
 The Fruitridge Pocket Subarea is the smallest Subarea with approximately 645 acres bounded by 12th Avenue to the north, Stockton Boulevard to the east, Fruitridge Road to the South and the City boundary to the west. This Subarea includes portions of unincorporated Sacramento County and the Lawrence Park neighborhood.
 The Tahoe & Colonial Subarea is the largest Subarea with approximately 1,795 acres bounded by Broadway and 14th Avenue to the north, Power Inn Road to the east, Fruitridge Road to the south, and Stockton Boulevard to the west. This Subarea comprises the neighborhoods of Tahoe Park, West Tahoe Park, Tahoe Park East, the west portion of Ramona Village, Colonial Heights, Tahoe Park South, Colonial Manor, Tallac Village, Colonial Village, and the northern portion of Fruitridge Manor.
 The Lemon Hill Subarea is mainly comprised of unincorporated Sacramento County with a small pocket in the City of Sacramento, that includes the Sacramento City Unified School District (SCUSD) Offices and the west side of the Little Saigon designation. This Subarea is bounded by Fruitridge Road to the North, Stockton Boulevard to the east, Morrison Creek to the south, and Highway 99 to the west with a small area to the west of Highway 99. The neighborhoods in this Subarea include Southwest, Daystar, Pacific Terrace, Cloverdale Village, Danielle Place, Rural California, El Paraiso Estates, and Fruitridge Vista.
 The South of Fruitridge Subarea is the second largest Subarea with 1,510 acres bounded by Fruitridge Road to the north, Power Inn Road to the east, Morrison Creek to the south with a small area south of the Creek, and Stockton Boulevard to the west. This Subarea contains the east side of the Little Saigon designation.

Neighborhoods in this Subarea include Fruitridge Manor, Avondale, Southeast Village, and Glen Elder.

Summary of Findings
Socioeconomic Conditions
 The percentage of residents within “Communities of Color” is shifting from the northern Subareas to southern and eastern Subareas in the Study Area.

Between 2010 and 2018, the percentage of the Study Area’s population that identifies as a race or ethnicity considered a “community of color” remained constant, around 5 Van de Meer, Ben, 2020. Hotel project near UC Davis Medical Center revised. Sacramento Business Journal [online] Available at
https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2020/10/13/hotel-project-near-uc-davismedical-center-revised.html [Accessed January 2021].) Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-23-2021_CLEAN.docx 7 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 70 percent of the Study Area’s total population, and slightly higher than the Citywide average which increased from 64 percent in 2010 to 68 percent in 2018.6 Notably, between 2010 and 2018, the percentage of the population that identifies as a “community of color” shifted from the northern Subareas, with percentage declines in Elmhurst and Oak Park to Subareas to the east and south, including Tahoe & Colonial, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge Subareas, which experienced percentage increases. The population that identifies as Black or African American has remained steady in the Study Area overall. However, the historically Black and African American community of Oak Park experienced significant declines for this population countered with large increases in the Black and African American population in the Fruitridge Pocket Subarea. See Map 2-1 for the percentage change in communities of color between 2010 and 2018.
• Socioeconomic trends suggest the Study Area’s population is becoming wealthier and more educated, although these trends are not universal across all Subareas. As of 2018, median household income in the Study Area remains well below the citywide average. However, the overall median household income in the Study Area was $44,700, an increase of 24 percent since 2010 compared to the City’s 16 percent increase during the same period. Notably, the Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial Subareas and the northern portion of Oak Park have a greater concentration of higher-earning households, with median household incomes around $60,000, exceeding the citywide average ($58,500). In contrast, households in the central and southern portions of the Oak Park Subarea and the Subareas of Fruitridge Pocket, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge have a much lower median income (about $37,000). Similarly, although the average level of educational attainment in the Study Area is lower than the City’s, there was a substantial shift between 2010 and 2018, with greater proportions of the Study Area’s residents possessing secondary and post-graduate education degrees. See Map 2-2 for 2018 median household income and Figure 2-7 for changes in educational attainment. • Poverty rates in the Study Area have significantly declined since 2010 although they remain higher than the Citywide average. As of 2018, about 27 percent of residents in the Study Area had incomes that fell below the national poverty level, down 16 percent from a poverty rate of 32.4 percent in 2010. In contrast, the Citywide poverty rate of 18.3 percent declined about 10 percent between 2010 and 2018. Nearly all Subareas in the Study Area experienced declines in the percentage of residents living under the poverty level, with the greatest declines occurring in the Oak Park Subarea (a 35.5 percent decrease) and Fruitridge Pocket Subarea (a nearly 22 percent decrease). The percentage of individuals living in poverty increased nominally in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea (an increase of 3 percent), and slightly more in the Lemon Hill Subarea (an increase of about 6 For the purpose of this analysis, “communities of color” include populations that identify as Black or African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, Hispanic or Latino, Some other Race, and Two or More Races in the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS).

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 8 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 7 percent). See Figure 2-10 for poverty rates and percentage change in poverty rate between 2010 and 2018.
 The Study Area is a strong employment node within the City with employment and growth concentrated in three primary industries: Health Care; Educational Services; and Utilities. As of 2018, the Study Area contained about 31,300 jobs representing about 10 percent of jobs in the City. Bolstered by key employers including the UC Davis Medical Center; Shriners Hospital for Children; the SCUSD offices; and the SMUD headquarters, employment in the Health Care and Social Assistance, Educational Services, and Utilities industries represents nearly 70 percent of all jobs in the Study Area. Between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area added close to 2,600 jobs, primarily in Health Care, Educational Services, and Utilities. One of the largest proposed projects in the Study Area, the Aggie Square mixed-use innovation and research project in the Elmhurst Subarea, is projected to add nearly 3,600 (direct or onsite) jobs to the Study Area at buildout.7 See Figure 2-11 and Appendix A for details regarding Study Area employment by industry.
 Despite the significant number of jobs in the Study Area, most Study Area residents commute to jobs outside of the Study Area. Ninety-six percent of the 36,500 employed residents commute outside of the Study Area for work. Conversely, over 95 percent of the nearly 31,300 employees who work in the Study Area commute in from elsewhere. Although the top industry of employed residents is the Health Care industry, and the northern Subareas of Oak Park and Tahoe & Colonial experienced recent labor force gains in this industry, most labor force growth between 2010 and 2018 occurred in the following industries, which are not the most prominent in the Study Area: Construction; Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Given the high proportion of local residents who commute out of the area for employment, future economic development efforts should be focused on creating local opportunities for Study Area residents, accounting for the industries, occupations, educational and skills training of existing residents. See Appendix A for details regarding Study Area resident employees by industry.

Housing Market Findings
 Residential sales prices are increasing in the Study Area at a higher rate than median household incomes, whereas median incomes are keeping pace with rental rates. As of 2018, the Study Area’s median home sales price was approximately $260,000, about 75 percent of City’s median home sales price. With the exception of the Elmhurst Subarea, which had a median home sales price about 7 EPS, 2020. Aggie Square Phase 1 and 2 Regional Economic Impact and City Fiscal Analysis. [online] Available at
https://sacramento.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=21&event_id=3821&meta_id=602 712 [Accessed January 2021].

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 9 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 125 percent higher than the Citywide average, all Subareas had a substantially lower median home sales price ranging from $234,500 in Fruitridge Pocket to $307,000 in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea. Between 2010 and 2018, median sales prices in the Study Area and the City have risen substantially over the past 8 years, with a much larger increase in the Study Area (nearly 120 percent increase) relative to the City (85 percent increase). Median home sale prices in the Study Area surpassed the growth of median household incomes in every Subarea, with greater disparities of growth in the Tahoe & Colonial, Oak Park, and Fruitridge Pocket Subareas. The Tahoe & Colonial and Oak Park Subareas experienced the greatest amount of growth, with median sales prices rising by 242 percent and 219 percent, respectively. The Elmhurst Subarea experienced the lowest growth increase, although still substantial at a nearly 95 percent increase, which exceeded Citywide median sales growth.  Residential rental rates have not risen as dramatically as home sales prices in the Study Area and remain lower than average rental rates Citywide. With the exception of the Lemon Hill Subarea, median household incomes in the Study Area are keeping pace with median residential rental rates. Rental rates in the Study Area increased 21 percent, while median household incomes grew by almost 24 percent. In comparison, residential rental rates Citywide increased by nearly 40 percent and median household income increased by only 16 percent. The Elmhurst, Oak Park, and South of Fruitridge Subareas experienced the largest income growth with median incomes surpassing rent growth by 13 to 17 percent, Tahoe & Colonial was smaller with a difference of 9 percent, where Fruitridge Pocket’s increase in rent and income equaled out, and Lemon Hill’s rent increase outpaced income growth.

Estimated Residential Growth and Demand
 The Study Area population is projected to grow by nearly 15 percent by 2040. As of 2020, the Study Area contained nearly 87,000 residents and almost 30,000 households. Based on Sacramento Area Council of Government (SACOG) projections, the Study Area is estimated to add almost 11,800 new residents and 4,040 new households by 2040. This level of growth translates into average, annual growth of about 590 residents and 200 households over the next 20 years.

In comparison, between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area grew by an average of 480 residents and 170 households per year. This growth is based on data from the American Community Survey (ACS) and SACOG, historical population and household trends and projected growth through 2040. For context, the Study Area is estimated to represent 12 percent of total Citywide population growth and 6 percent of household growth.
 Residential demand in the Study Area for affordable housing units outweigh the need for market rate units. In the Study Area there is a projected demand for an additional 4,240 housing units, or an average of 212 new housing units per year, between 2020 and 2040, as shown in Table 4-3 in Chapter 4. If projected demand Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 10 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx is fully realized, the Study Area would grow from a total of 31,900 units to 36,100 units by 2040, representing a 13 percent increase over this period. Applying 2018 income distribution percentages to future Study Area housing units establishes a projected demand for the addition of 1,130 market rate units (27 percent of total units demanded) and 3,110 affordable units (73 percent of total units demanded).

Affordable housing, as described in this Study, may comprise housing funded through Federal, State, and local housing programs and may also comprise housing that is affordable by design (i.e., based on size, type, construction materials, or other factor). Affordable housing is defined in this Study as ownership- and renter-occupied housing whose monthly cost does not exceed 35 percent of monthly gross household income, based on income standards for households of 3 which meet “low income” (or lower) income guidelines per the State of California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD).8 9 As of 2020, based on income limits for households of 3 in Sacramento County, housing with a value at or below $245,000 for owneroccupied homes and at or below $1,800 per month for renter-occupied homes are defined as affordable. Conversely, market rate homes comprise housing valued above $245,000 for owner-occupied homes and above $1,800 per month in rent for renteroccupied homes.

Commercial Market Findings
 Demand for commercial development will likely be limited to neighborhoodserving retail uses. Although the COVID-19 Pandemic (Pandemic) has had an impact on the retail sector, over the long term, new projected household growth is expected to generate additional demand for neighborhood-serving retail development. The Study Area has not experienced much nonresidential development, but the retail sector in the Study Area has experienced recent activity and has remained steady with low vacancy and competitive lease rates. There is limited demand for office space in the Study Area and demand for additional medical office space, if any, may be met with the addition of the proposed Aggie Square project, given its location adjacent to existing medical facilities and synergistic land uses.

Estimated Commercial Retail Demand
 Estimated Commercial retail demand from incremental new households in the Study area is enough to support a medium-sized neighborhood-oriented commercial center. The Study Area is estimated to capture newly created demand from residential growth in the Study Area. Incremental new Study Area household 8 The assumption that housing costs should represent approximately 35% of gross monthly household income is derived from the City’s Mixed Income Housing Income Ordinance, adopted in 2015 (Chapter 17.712 of the City Code).
9 This Study uses a household size of 3 to derive incomes based on the average persons per household in the Study Area of 2.9. See Figure 2-1 in Chapter 2.

The Study Area may be able to support additional retail space beyond what is estimated in this Study through the capture of additional sources of demand (i.e., existing retail leakage; employee spending; pass-by traffic from populations outside of the Study Area). It is anticipated that this retail demand analysis may be refined, as needed, following supplemental conversations regarding community preferences related to new retail outlets, and the feasibility of specific retail concepts and tenants.

Report Organization
This report is presented in the following chapters and technical appendices.

1. Introduction and Summary of Findings presents an overview of the report and key findings.

2. Study Area Profile presents an analysis of existing conditions in the Study Area, including population, households, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, income and poverty, employment and jobs, and jobs-housing balance and commuting patterns.

3. Residential and Commercial Market Overview provides a context to current residential and commercial market conditions in the nation, the City of Sacramento, and the Study Area.

4. Future Growth and Market Demand provides overview of projected growth and the potential resulting demand for additional housing and retail.

This report also contains technical appendices, Appendix A, Appendix B, and Appendix C, which provide supporting data regarding socio-economic trends in the Study Area.

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2. Study Area Profile
This chapter examines the trends and existing composition of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in the Study Area, in aggregate and by Subarea, relative to the City. The purpose of this demographic and socioeconomic profile is to develop an understanding of the dynamics and drivers likely to affect the type and magnitude of development in the Study Area. This chapter comprises the following key analytic elements:
 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics. Identifies trends in population and households, age, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, income and poverty, and jobs-housing balance and commuting patterns.
 Labor Force. Reflects trends in labor force and unemployment rates, including industry and employment characteristics and commuting patterns.  Employment. Presents information on the quantity and type of jobs in the Study Area.

Supporting data tables underlying figures presented in this chapter are included in Appendix A.

Demographic Conditions
Population and Households
In 2018, the Study Area included about 86,000 residents within 29,644 households, accounting for just under 20 percent of the City’s population.10 Between 2010 and 2018, the Study area added 3,800 residents and 1,400 households. Population growth in the Study Area during this time was primarily concentrated in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, with an increase of almost 1,900 residents, followed by the Oak Park and Lemon Hill Subareas, which added 1,120 residents and 720 residents, respectively. The Fruitridge Pocket and Elmhurst subareas experienced minimal growth, while the South of Fruitridge Subarea experienced a decline in both population and households. See Figure 2-1.

During this time, the population growth rate in the Study Area was substantially lower than the City’s, although growth in households was similar for both geographies.

Between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area experienced an increase in smaller households (a decline in average persons per household). In contrast, the City experienced an increase in larger households (an increase from an average of 2.68 to 2.78 persons per household), likely based on the type and size of residential development occurring in new 10 Please note that the term “household” denotes an occupied dwelling unit.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 14 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx growth areas of the City (e.g., Natomas). The Oak Park Subarea experienced the largest decline in household size, from 2.82 persons per household in 2010 to 2.58 persons per household in 2018. Conversely, the Elmhurst Subarea experienced a slight increase in average household size, growing from 1.90 to 2.10 persons per household.

Despite this increase, Elmhurst’s average household size remains significantly lower than the Citywide average and all other Study Subareas. Compared to the Citywide average household size, the northern Subareas of Elmhurst, Oak Park, and Tahoe & Colonial all have smaller households, on average, while the southern Subareas of Fruitridge Pocket, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge all have larger households, on average. See Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1. Change in Population and Households (2010-2018) and Persons per Household (PPH) (2018)
Source: U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates DP05 2010 and 2018; EPS.

Race/Ethnicity
In 2018, the Study Area’s population predominately identified as Hispanic or Latino (34 percent) followed by populations that identify as White (28 percent) and Asian (19 percent). These three populations also comprise the largest percentages within the City as a whole, although in a different order (White – 33 percent, Hispanic or Latino – 29 percent, and Asian – 19 percent). See Figure 2-2. The population that identifies as Black or African American has remained steady in the Study Area. However, in the Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 15 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Figure 2-2. Race/Ethnicity Allocation: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2018) Source: U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates DP05 2018; EPS. 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Elmhust Oak Park Fruitridge
Pocket
Tahoe &
Colonial
Lemon Hill South Of
Fruitridge
Study Area City of
Sacramento
Two or More Races
Some other race
Hispanic or Latino (of
any race)
Native Hawaiian and
Other Pacific Islander
Asian
American Indian and
Alaska Native
Black or African
American
White
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White and Asian populations represent the fastest growing categories in the Study Area over the 2010 to 2018 period, in particular in the two northern subareas of Elmhurst and Oak Park. The populations that identify as Some Other Race and as Two or More Races also represented a category showing growth within the Study Area, specifically in the Fruitridge Pocket, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge Subareas.

The percentage of the Study Area’s population that identifies as a race or ethnicity considered a “community of color” remained steady between 2010 and 2018, comprising approximately 70 percent of the total population, whereas, the City of Sacramento’s “community of color” population has been consistently lower than the Study Area (64 percent of the City’s total population in 2010 and 68 percent in 2018).11 As shown in Map 2-1 the percentage of the population that identifies as a “community of color” shifted from the northern Subareas, with percentage declines in Elmhurst and Oak Park between 2010 and 2018, to Subareas to the east and south, including Tahoe & Colonial, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge Subareas, which experienced percentage increases. 11 For the purpose of this analysis, “Communities of Color” include populations that identify as Black or African American, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, Hispanic or Latino, Some other Race, and Two or More Races in the ACS.

Figure 2-3. Median Age: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010 & 2018) Source: U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates DP05 2010 and 2018; EPS.

Between 2010 and 2018, both the Study Area and the City experienced large increases in residents aged 55 or older as the Baby Boomer generation ages.12 Notably, the percentage change in residents aged 55 or older citywide was more than twice the percentage change in the Study Area. During the same timeframe, the Study Area experienced increases in children under the age of 5, in contrast to City trends, and residents between the ages of 20-34, likely as a result of Millennial generation families moving to the area, especially in the Tahoe & Colonial and Fruitridge Pocket Subareas.13 Both the Study Area and the City experienced a decrease in residents aged 5-19 years 12 Baby boomers are the demographic cohort following the Silent Generation and preceding Generation X. The generation is generally defined as people born from 1946 to 1964, during the post–World War II baby boom.
13 Millennials, also known as Generation Y, are the demographic cohort following Generation X and preceding Generation Z. Researchers and popular media use the early 1980s as starting birth years and the mid-1990s to early 2000s as ending birth years, with 1981 to 1996 a widely accepted defining range for the generation.

29.3 28.6

38.6 30.9

30.0 38.8

31.9 33.1

34.2 29.4

37.5 32.8

32.3 39.8

33.8 34.4
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
South of Fruitridge
Lemon Hill
Tahoe & Colonial
Fruitridge Pocket
Oak Park
Elmhurst
Study Area
City of Sacramento
Median Age
2018
2010
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Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 19 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) and smaller increases of residents aged 35-54 years, suggesting a portion of families with older children moved out of the City. See Figure 2-4.

Figure 2-4. Age Range Distribution Percentage Change (2010-2018) Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates DP05 2010 and 2018; EPS.

Educational Attainment
Overall, the Study Area’s population has a lower educational attainment than the City’s population. As of 2018, about 25 percent of the Study Area’s residents had not achieved a high school degree or high school equivalency, compared to about 15 percent of the population in the City. Further, about 27 percent of Study Area residents had attained an Associate’s degree or higher compared to over 40 percent of City residents.

The low level of educational attainment diverges across Subareas. As of 2018, almost 50 percent of residents in the Elmhurst Subarea held a bachelor’s degree or higher, substantially higher than the other Subareas’ proportion of the population with this level of educational attainment, which ranges from 6 percent in Lemon Hill to 29 percent in Oak Park, as well as the City’s proportion of 33 percent. Notably, the percentage of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher in the northern portion of the Oak Park Subarea (a subset of this Subarea comprising the neighborhoods of Med Center and North Oak Park) is similar to Elmhurst’s with a jump from 29 percent in 2010 to 46

7.2%
‐12.8%

10.2%

8.2%

12.4%

14.7%
‐4.3%
‐0.7%

11.6%

0.8%

18.5%

31.4%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under 5
years
5 to 19
years
20 to 34
years
35 to 54
years
55 to 64
years
Over 65
years
Study Area
City of Sacramento
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Although the educational attainment in the Study Area is lower than the City’s, there was a substantial shift between 2010 and 2018, with greater proportions of the Study Area’s residents possessing secondary and post-graduate education degrees. These data suggest the socioeconomic composition of the Study Area is changing. There was a 53 percent increase in residents who had attained an Associate’s degree, a 27 percent increase in residents who had attained a Bachelor’s degree, and a 66 percent increase in residents who had attained a graduate or professional degree. See Figure 2-7.

Figure 2-5. Educational Attainment Study Area and City of Sacramento for the Population Aged 25+ (2018)
Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1501 2018; EPS. 14 Note that data pertaining to the North Oak Park/Med Center neighborhoods is not distinguished separately from the Oak Park Subarea in Figure 2-5 or Figure 2-6. The finding detailed here is based on data contained in Census Tract 6067001800, one of several census tracts aggregated in the Oak Park Subarea.

14.5%

11.0%

24.5% 22.6%

7.4%

12.9%

7.0% 8.3% 7.0%

20.9% 22.4%

8.8%

20.6%

12.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Less than 9th
grade
9th to 12th
grade, no
diploma
High school
graduate
(includes
equivalency)
Some college,
no degree
Associate's
degree
Bachelor's
degree
Graduate or
professional
degree
Study Area City of Sacramento
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 21 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Figure 2-6. Educational Attainment Study Subareas for the Population Aged 25+ (2018)
Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1501 2018; EPS.

Between 2010 and 2018, conclusions regarding educational attainment by Subarea include the following.
 In the Oak Park Subarea, the number of residents that had attained a bachelor’s degree increased by almost 800 (almost 70 percent) and the number of residents with a graduate or professional degree increased by almost 900 (a 200 percent increase).
 The number of residents with bachelor’s degrees increased in the Fruitridge Pocket Subarea by almost 280 (about a 200 percent increase).
 In the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, the number of residents with associate’s and graduate or professional degrees increased by about 500 for each degree level (61 percent and 44 percent increases, respectively).
 The South of Fruitridge Subarea saw increases of residents with associate’s and bachelor’s degrees by almost 500 (a 102 percent increase) and 400 (a 54 percent increase), respectively.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Elmhurst Oak Park Fruitridge Pocket Tahoe Park Lemon Hill South Of Fruitridge Less than 9th grade
9th to 12th grade, no
diploma
High school graduate
(includes equivalency)
Some college, no
degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or
professional degree
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 22 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 2-7. Higher Education Attainment Percentage Change for the Population Aged 25+ (2010-2018)
Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1501 2010 and 2018; EPS.

Median Household Income
Median household income in the Study Area is significantly lower compared to the median household income in the City. In 2018, the overall median household income in the Study Area was $44,700, about 30 percent lower than the median income for the City as a whole, which was $58,500. The distribution of household income across the Study Area is distinctive for each Subarea, as exhibited in A higher proportion of Study Area households (56 percent) earn incomes below $49,999 compared to the City (43 percent), conversely a higher proportion of City households (39 percent) earn incomes of $75,000 or more compared to the Study Area (26 percent). See Figure 2-9.

Map 2-2. The Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial Subareas and the northern portion of Oak Park (including Med Center and North Oak Park) both have a greater concentration of higher-earning households, with median household incomes around $60,000, nominally surpassing the median income of the City.15 The central and southern portions of Oak Park and the Subareas of Fruitridge Pocket, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge represent the two lowest median income categories within the City, with an average median income of about $37,000.
15 This data is shown by Census Tract in Map 2-2.

30.1% 34.7% 10.6%

60.9%

37.0%
102.1%

52.6%

29.1%

28.5%

68.2%
203.7%

4.6%
(34.9%)

53.6%

27.0%

18.5%

31.9%
200.6%
(9.5%)

43.6%

13.0%

63.5%

66.3%

35.7%
‐50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Elmhurst Oak Park Fruitridge
Pocket
Tahoe Park Lemon Hill South Of
Fruitridge
Study Area Sacramento
Higher Education Percentage Change
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Graduate or professional degree
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 24 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx A higher proportion of Study Area households (56 percent) earn incomes below $49,999 compared to the City (43 percent), conversely a higher proportion of City households (39 percent) earn incomes of $75,000 or more compared to the Study Area (26 percent).

See Figure 2-9.

Figure 2-8. Study Area Household Income Distribution (2018) Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1901 2018; EPS.

Figure 2- 9. Study Area and City of Sacramento Household Income Distribution (2018)
Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1901 2018; EPS.

16.7%

13.7%

10.0%

15.4%

17.6%

11.4%

9.9%

3.2%

2.2%

12.6%

9.4% 8.8%

12.3%

17.8%

12.5%

14.6%

6.2% 5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Less than
$15,000
$15,000 ‐
$24,999
$25,000 ‐
$34,999
$35,000 ‐
$49,999
$50,000 ‐
$74,999
$75,000 ‐
$99,999
$100,000 ‐
$149,999
$150,000 ‐
$199,999
$200,000 or
more
Study Area City of Sacramento
2018 Median HH Income
Study Area:
$44,700
City of Sacramento:
$58,500

44.9% 55.3% 67.8% 39.3% 72.1% 61.4%

12.3%

16.3%

21.2%

23.3%

14.8%

15.1%

42.9%

28.4%

11.0%

37.4%

13.1%

23.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Elmhurst Oak Park Fruitridge
Pocket
Tahoe Park Lemon Hill South Of
Fruitridge
$75,000 or
more
$50,000 ‐
$74,999
Less than
$49,999
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While all Subareas, except for the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, have a poverty rate that exceeds the Citywide rate of 18.3 percent, the Study Area has experienced a declining trend between 2012 and 2018 in the percentage of residents living in poverty.16 See Figure 2-10. As of 2018, about 27 percent of residents in the Study Area had incomes that fell below the national poverty level, down from a poverty rate of 32.4 percent in 2018, representing a 16 percent decline.

Nearly all Subareas in the Study Area experienced declines in the percentage of residents living under the poverty level, with the greatest declines occurring in the Oak Park and Fruitridge Pocket Subareas. The percentage of residents living in poverty in the Oak Park Subarea decreased from nearly 40 percent in 2012 to slightly over 25 percent in 2018 (a

35.5 percent decrease). In the Fruitridge Pocket Subarea, the percentage decreased from 42.6 percent in 2012 to about 33 percent in 2018 (a nearly 22 percent decrease).

The percentage of individuals living in poverty increased nominally in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, from 15.8 percent to 16.3 percent (an increase of 3 percent), and slightly more significantly in the Lemon Hill Subarea, from 34.4 percent to nearly 37 percent (an increase of about 7 percent).

Figure 2- 10. 2018 Poverty Rate and Percentage Change in Poverty (2012- 2018)
Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates S1501 2012 and 2018; EPS. 16 Refer to the Census website for information regarding how the Census measures poverty:
https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 26 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Labor Force
Labor Force (Employed Residents) by Industry
As of 2018, the Study Area comprised a labor force of
about 36,100 residents employed in a wide variety of
industries. The top industries employing residents of
the Study Area included: Health Care and Social
Assistance (about 4,700 employed residents); Retail
(about 4,100 employed residents); Accommodation &
Food Service (about 3,500 employed residents);
Construction (about 3,400 employed residents); and
Public
Administration (about 3,500 employed
residents). These top industries comprised
approximately 45 percent of employed
residents. See Table A-1 in Appendix A.

Between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area saw
a significant increase in its labor force across
nearly all industries, with the addition of 5,726
employed residents living in the area,
representing a nearly 20 percent increase,
relative to a total population percentage
increase of 3 percent. These data may indicate
a dramatic upward shift in the labor force
participation rate of Study Area residents. In
contrast, the City’s labor force increased by 11
percent corresponding with the City’s
population increase of 9 percent.

Over half of the growth between 2010 and
2018 in the Study Area’s labor force occurred
in five top industries, including: Construction;
Retail Trade; Accommodation and Food
Services; and Professional, Scientific &
Technical Services. Notably, the percentage
increase of employed residents in the Study
Area in these top industries were significantly
higher than percentage increases experienced
in the City during the same period.

T
Top Industries (2018)
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Service
Construction
Public Administration
Top Industry Gains (2010-2018)
Construction (+864)
Retail Trade (+843)
Accomm. and Food Services (+823)
Prof., Scientific, & Tech. Services
(+583)
Top Industry Declines (2010-2018)
Information (-181)
Utilities (-69)

STUDY AREA

EMPLOYED RESIDENTS

BY INDUSTRY
The labor force includes all
residents of an area age 16 and
older who are classified as both
employed and unemployed.

Conceptually, the labor force
level is the number of people
who are either working or
actively looking for work.

Within the Study Area, the Oak Park Subarea comprised the largest increase in employed residents, adding almost 2,100 residents to the labor force, followed by the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, adding nearly 2,000 residents to the labor force. See Table A-2 in Appendix A. Combined, these subareas comprised over 70 percent of the growth in the Study Area’s labor force. Remaining subareas all experienced minimal to moderate growth in the number of employed residents between 2010 and 2018. Within the Study Area, there have been notable shifts in the industries of employed residents, as summarized below.
 The Study Area’s largest industry of employed residents, Health Care and Social Assistance, experienced labor force gains in the Oak Park and Tahoe & Colonial subareas and labor force declines in the Elmhurst and Fruitridge Pocket subareas. In addition, the Oak Park subarea experienced a large increase of residents employed in the Professional Services industry. An increase of employed residents in these industries indicates the influence of the UC Davis Medical Center on labor force composition in the proximate Oak Park subarea.
 Gains in employed residents in the Retail industry were experienced across every subarea, with the largest total gains in the Oak Park and Lemon Hill subareas.  Increases in the labor force in the Construction industry were concentrated in Tahoe & Colonial, Lemon Hill, and Oak Park, with nominal growth in Elmhurst and declines in the South of Fruitridge Subarea.
 Labor force increases in the Accommodation industry were focused in the Tahoe & Colonial, Oak Park, and Lemon Hill subareas. Elmhurst experienced labor force declines in this industry.

Employed Residents by Occupation
In 2018, the top occupations for employed residents in the Study Area were distributed over five occupations: Office and Administrative Support Occupations; Sales and Related Occupations; Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations; Transportation and Material Moving Occupations; and Construction and Extraction. These five occupational fields represented approximately 45 percent of all employed resident occupations in the Study Area whereas, the City’s top occupations for employed residents were concentrated within only two fields: Office and Administrative Support Occupations and Sales and Related Occupations. See Table A-3 in Appendix A.

Aligned with educational attainment findings, a majority of the occupations of employed residents in the Study Area (over 60 percent) correspond with a low level of training; about one-tenth of occupations require a medium level of training and one-quarter Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 28 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx require a high level of training.17 In
comparison, the City’s labor force is
shifted more towards higher
educational attainment and training,
with about half of occupations
requiring medium to high levels of
training.

The largest gain in employed resident
occupations in the Study Area occurred
in Healthcare Support, Construction
and Extraction, and Transportation and
Material Moving. Combined, these
occupations accounted for 44 percent
of new resident occupations added
over the 2010-2018 period and the
increase in these occupations
maintains the prevalence of
occupations that require low and
medium levels of training in the Study
Area. The City also experienced strong
growth in the same three occupations
as the Study Area, as well as in Health
Diagnosing & Treating Practitioners
and Other Technology Occupations,
Educational Instruction and Library
Occupations, and Computer and
Mathematical Occupations, accounting
for 94 percent of the City’s increase in
employed resident occupations. These
additional occupations that
experienced more growth in the City compared to the Study Area all require high levels of training.

In the Study Area, the occupations which saw a combined decrease of close to 1,600 employed residents over the same period were: Office and Administrative Support Occupations; Personal Care and Service Occupations; and Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations. With the exception of Building and Grounds Cleaning and 17 Levels of training by occupations are based on information provided by O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations utilized by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low training level = some on-the-job training and high school-level education; Medium training level = considerable on-the-job training, vocational education, or Associate's degree; High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience.

T
Top Occupations (2018)
Office & Administrative Support Occupations
Sales & Related Occupations
Food Preparation & Serving Related
Occupations
Top Occupation Gains (2010-2018)
Healthcare Support Occupations (+1,196)
Construction & Extraction Occupations
(+686)
Transportation & Material Moving
Occupations (+633)
Top Occupation Declines (2010-2018)
Office & Administrative Support Occupations
(-639)
Personal Care & Service Occupations (-453)
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
Occupations (-447)

STUDY AREA

EMPLOYED RESIDENTS BY

OCCUPATION
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 29 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Maintenance Occupations, decreases in these occupations were also experienced in the City, but were proportionally more severe in the Study Area.

Within the Study Subareas, the largest growth of employed resident occupations occurred in the Oak Park Subarea in two high training level occupations including Management Occupations and Educational Instruction and Library Occupations, as well as the low training level occupation of Healthcare Support, altogether accounting for nearly half of the net gain in employed resident occupations in the Subarea. See Table A-4 in Appendix A. A factor in the strong overall growth is a likely result from new developments on and surrounding the Broadway Corridor.

Within the Study Area, there have been notable shifts in the occupations of employed residents, as summarized below.
 The Tahoe & Colonial Subarea incurred significant growth in employed residents in Healthcare Support occupations with the addition of 360 employed residents (an increase of 235 percent), Construction and Extraction occupations with the addition of 311 employed residents (an increase of 77 percent), and Sale and Related occupations with the addition of 293 employed residents (an increase of 51 percent), all requiring low levels of training.
 The Elmhurst Subarea experienced declines in 13 occupational categories, with six of those decreasing to zero employment (Community and Social Service, Health Technologists and Technicians, Healthcare Support Occupations, Firefighting, Prevention, & Other Protective Service Workers including Supervisors, Personal Care and Service, and Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupations). Of the Study Subareas, Elmhurst had the smallest amount of overall growth with the addition of 251 employed residents (an increase of about 11 percent). The largest growth occurred in occupations requiring high levels of training including Educational Instruction and Library occupations with the addition of 250 employed residents (an increase of 160 percent) and Business and Financial occupations with the addition of 205 employed residents (an increase of 263 percent).  South of Fruitridge had the smallest amount of growth proportionally with the addition of 525 employed residents (an increase of 7.6 percent). This Subarea incurred the greatest declines in the Study Area in Management occupations with a loss of 175 resident employees (a decrease of 52 percent) and in Construction and Extraction occupations with a loss of 178 resident employees (a decrease of 30 percent).

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 30 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Employment
Jobs by Industry
By 2018, the Study Area contained about 31,300 jobs,
with the Health Care and Social Assistance, Educational Services, and Utilities industries representing nearly 70 percent of jobs in the Study Area. During the period
between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area added close to
2,600 jobs representing an increase of 7percent. See
Figure 2-11 and Appendix A Table A-5. In
comparison, the City grew by a little more than 11
percent over the same period.

Figure 2- 11. Study Area Jobs by Industry (2010 and 2018) Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2018; EPS.

The Study Area saw strong growth in its most heavily concentrated industries relative to the City and County in 2018. These industries include:
 Health Care and Social Assistance. With a total of over 13,500 jobs representing over 40 percent of all jobs, the Study Area accounted for about 25 percent of all Healthcare and Social Assistance jobs in the City and about 12 percent of all jobs in the County, based on the presence of the UC Davis Medical Center and Shriners Hospital for Children in the Elmhurst Subarea. In the Study Area, Healthcare and Social Assistance jobs increased by about 47 percent with the addition of 4,300 jobs Jobs refers to the number
of job positions in a
specified geography where
a worker is employed with
positive earnings. This
includes part-time and fulltime positions and reflects positions, not people.
17 11
163
116
162
163
232
245
331
438
527
583
936
1,946
2,040
2,267
3,459
4,097
13,536
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services
Real Estate and Rental Leasing
Information
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Other Services (except Public Admin.)
Construction
Manufacturing
Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs
Accommodation and Food Services
Retail Trade
Government Enterprises
Utilities
Educational Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
2018
2010
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 31 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) between 2010 and 2018, and increases in each Subarea, with the Elmhurst Subarea accounting for almost half of the total increase in Study Area Healthcare and Social Assistance jobs. See Appendix A Table A-6. This contrasts with the approximately 50 percent decrease in the employed residents in the Healthcare and Social Assistance industry in the Elmhurst Subarea over the 2010 to 2018 period. Although the Study Area experienced a 10 percent increase in employed residents in this industry overall (about 390 new employed residents), the increases occurred in the Oak Park, Tahoe & Colonial, Lemon Hill, and South of Fruitridge Subareas.  Educational Services. The Study Area’s second-highest concentration of jobs is in Educational Services with a total of almost 4,100 jobs, representing 13 percent of total jobs as of 2018. Educational Services jobs in the Study Area accounted for about 20 percent of all Educational Services jobs in the City and nearly 8 percent of all jobs in the County, based on the presence of the SCUSD Office located in the Lemon Hill Subarea and Pacific McGeorge School of Law in the Oak Park Subarea.

Educational Services jobs saw an increase in the Lemon Hill Subarea with the addition of 82 jobs, an increase of about 4 percent. This contrasts with the over 50 percent decrease in Lemon Hill’s resident employees in the Educational Services industry, although the Study Area experienced an 8 percent increase in employed residents overall (about 208 new employed residents), most of which were in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea. While Educational Service jobs in Oak Park declined, it still represents the second largest industry in that Subarea.  Utilities Industry. With about 3,500 jobs as of 2018 representing about 11 percent of total jobs, Utilities jobs in the Study Area accounted for nearly 66 percent of all Utilities jobs in the City and 54 percent of the County, given the presence of the SMUD offices, a key employer in the Study Area located in the Elmhurst Subarea.

Utilities jobs in Elmhurst grew between 2010 and 2018 by 45 percent with the addition of 1,100 jobs. This contrasts with declines in employed residents in the Utilities both in the Elmhurst subarea and the Study Area overall, although the labor force in this industry has historically comprised a small share of overall labor force in the Study Area.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 32 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Jobs-Housing Balance and Commute Patterns
The Study Area possesses a balance of
jobs and housing of 1.1, which falls below
the commonly accepted ideal ratio of 1.5,
while the City has a higher jobs-housing
ratio of 1.7. See Table 2-1 and Figure
2-12.18
A high proportion (96 percent) of Study
Area residents commuted to jobs outside
of the Study Area. Many of these
residents have a short commute with 57
percent traveling fewer than 10 miles to
their jobs and commuting an average of
about 26 minutes, generally aligning with
the average commute time for residents
Citywide. Conversely, about 90 percent of
Study Area workers commute in from
outside of the Study Area. These
employees are similarly drawn from
relatively close by, with 58 percent commuting
less than 10 miles.
18 Please note that the totals presented in Figure 2-12 and Table 2-3 do not precisely align with employed resident and employment figures for the Study Area, as shown in Appendix A.

The data sources, although both published by the U.S. Census, were obtained from two different sources, the ACS and OnTheMap.

Figure 2-12. Study Area Employment InflowOutflow (2018) Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2018; EPS.

Study Area City of Sacramento
[1] Jobs-Housing balance and mean commute times derived from US Census American Community Survey data as of 2018.
[2] The inflow/outflow ratio is the percentage of residents living in the specified area that travel outside of that area for work compared to the total employment for that specified area.

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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 34 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx

3. Residential and Commercial Market
Overview
Residential Market Context
For decades, California has a faced a housing crisis related to its significant unhoused population and rising housing costs. For those living in poverty, high rental rates have translated into large proportions of their income allocated to housing costs, leaving little remaining for basic living expenses, let alone bolstering savings account to build wealth.19 In addition, low-income households, weighted towards Communities of Color, have faced displacement and gentrification pressure, fleeing urban core neighborhoods near transit and services, to cheaper suburban and exurban locales. Rising home sales prices have translated into larger down payment requirements leading to homeownership challenges for households with median and higher incomes.20 These challenges point to a root problem of limited housing supply. Indeed, several recent reports have estimated an undersupply of housing in the State of California (State) that ranges from about 3 million to 4 million units. This undersupply represents the amount of housing that was needed over the last several decades to maintain housing costs in alignment with the rest of the country.21 22
At the beginning of 2020, the Pandemic caused abrupt and severe economic impacts, including mass unemployment and major disruptions to retail and office markets, as discussed later in this chapter. The national and California housing markets declined briefly but have recovered and remained strong throughout the year, driven by historically low mortgage interest rates, the aforementioned low housing inventory, and 19 Kimberlin, Sara and Esi Hutchful, 2019. New Census Figures Show More Than 1 in 6 Californians Struggle to Afford Basic Necessities. California Budget and Policy Center. [online] Available at: https://calbudgetcenter.org/resources/number-of-californians-living-in-povertyhas-been-declining-but-more-than-1-in-6-residents-still-struggle-to-afford-basicnecessities/#:~:text=Approximately%207.1%20million%20Californians%20lived,Supplement al%20Poverty%20Measure%20(SPM) [Accessed January 2021]. 20 Levin, Matt, 2021. Commentary: Five things I’ve learned covering California’s housing crisis that you should know. Cal Matters. [online] Available at:
https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/01/california-housing-crisis-lessons/ [Accessed January 2021].
21 Taylor, Mac, 2015. California’s High Housing costs Causes and Consequences. Legislative Analyst Office. [online] Available at: https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2015/finance/housingcosts/housing-costs.pdf [Accessed January 2021]. 22 Dillon, Liam, 2018. California lawmakers killed one of the biggest housing bills in the country. Los Angeles Times. [online] Available at: https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-cabig-housing-bill-dies-20180417-story.html [Accessed January 2021].

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 36 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx increased residential turnover related to changing consumer preferences following workfrom-home directives for non-essential employees.

The Pandemic has accelerated Bay Area migration to the Sacramento Region, a trend that commenced during the Great Recession, as people sought to escape the high housing costs of the Bay Area for more affordable locales.23 This migration has created increased residential demand in Sacramento, which experienced a nearly 8 percent increase in average home prices over the past year, slightly higher than the State average, and is projected to be the fastest growing housing market in the U.S. in 2021.24 At the same time, the Pandemic has deepened socioeconomic inequalities across the nation. While many people have retained their jobs, increased savings and prioritized debt repayment because of economic uncertainties, and invested in a surging stock market, millions of Americans remain unemployed and face permanent job losses and housing and food insecurity.25 These trends may prompt many lower-income households to leave their current place of residence in search of areas with a lower cost of living or different employment opportunities. The Pandemic has certainly elevated the need for the creation of new affordable housing opportunities, as well as assistance programs and policies, in a state already grappling with an affordable housing crisis.

Study Area Residential Market Conditions
The following section examines the characteristics and trends of residential uses in the Study Area to establish the context for accommodating future residential development.

Housing Units
As of 2020, there were a total of 32,658 housing units in the Study Area with nearly half of the Study Area’s housing units located in the Tahoe & Colonial and Oak Park Subareas.

See Table 3-1.

Characteristics of the housing stock in each Subarea are indicative of its development period, as shown in Figure 3-1. As one of the first neighborhoods outside of the City’s urban core, the Oak Park Subarea has the oldest housing stock with close to a third of its 23 Murphy, Katy. Bay Area residents seek the California dream – in Sacramento. The Mercury News. [online] Available at: https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/18/bay-area-residentsseek-the-california-dream-in-sacramento/ [Accessed January 2021]. 24 Hamann, Emily. Sacramento foreast to be NO. 1 for housing market growth in 2021.

Sacramento Business Journal. [online]] Available at:
https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2020/12/07/realtor‐forecast‐sacramento‐ 2021.html [Accessed January 2021].
25 Eisen, Ben. Covid-19 Upended Americans’ Finances, Just Not in the Ways We Expected. The Wall Street Journal. [online] Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-upendedamericans-finances-just-not-in-the-ways-we-expected-11609081200?mod=e2fb [Accessed January 2021].

39.3%

6.7%

14.6%

24.4%

15.0%
Item 2000 2010 2020 Total %
Avg.

Annual
Change Total %
Avg.

Annual
Change
Study Subarea
Elmhurst 2,554 2,668 3,003 9.2% 449 17.6% 22 335 12.6% 34 Oak Park 6,368 6,419 7,089 21.7% 721 11.3% 36 670 10.4% 67 Fruitridge Pocket 2,784 2,789 2,880 8.8% 96 3.4% 5 91 3.3% 9 Tahoe & Colonial 7,820 7,427 7,613 23.3% (207) (2.6%) (10) 186 2.5% 19 Lemon Hill 5,802 5,819 6,037 18.5% 235 4.1% 12 218 3.7% 22 South of Fruitridge 5,421 5,929 6,036 18.5% 615 11.3% 31 107 1.8% 11 Total Study Area 30,749 31,051 32,658 100.0% 1,909 6.2% 95 1,607 5.2% 161 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010 Summary File 1. Esri forecasts for 2020 and 2025 converted Census 2000 data into 2010 geography; EPS. 2020 Units
as % of
Study Area
Housing Units
Change 2000-2020 Change 2010-2020
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 38 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx approximately 7,000 units built before 1940. The majority of the housing units in the other Subareas were built between 1940 to 1959 and very few new housing units (about 2,130 units, or 7 percent of total housing inventory) have been developed after the year 2000. Most newer housing units (units constructed after the year 2000) have been constructed in the South of Fruitridge Subarea (nearly 900 units) and Oak Park Subarea (about 800 units).

Much of the newer housing that developed in the South of Fruitridge Subarea has included both rental and ownership housing near Lemon Hill Avenue, east of Stockton Boulevard. A surge of new residential development in and near the Oak Park Subarea, commenced in 2003 with a commercial revitalization project called 40 Acres located on the southwest block of Broadway and 35th Street.26 Following the project’s success, and located kitty-corner to 40 acres, a local architect constructed 10 live-work lofts in 2008.27 Thereafter, bolstered by continued Study Area job growth driven by the Med Center facilities and SMUD headquarters, as well as consumer preferences for living in urban locations close to employment opportunities and services, several projects with a mix of residential and commercial uses were developed in the Oak Park and Elmhurst Subareas, as summarized below.
 Broadway Triangle is a mixed-use redevelopment project completed in 2014 comprising 29 units, 23 of them for sale and the rest for-rent lofts, along with 10,000 square feet of retail located in the Oak Park Subarea.
 Oak Park Creatives is 6-unit market rate single family project located on 2nd Avenue in the Oak Park Subarea, completed in 2017.
 The Alchemy Project includes 9 market rate single family homes around 1,400 square feet, located in the Oak Park Subarea, completed in 2018.  The Grounds at Tahoe Park, comprises 44 market rate single family homes located in the Elmhurst Subarea. The homes range in size from 1,700 – 2,500 square feet and is 95 percent sold.
 The Gio, completed in early 2020, is a market-rate, mixed use, "smart" project and includes 213 units, a parking garage, resident amenities including a rooftop pool and community room, and 4,300 square feet of ground floor retail. As of January 2021, this project has 91 percent occupancy. The high-end residential project is located in the Elmhurst Subarea and has primarily attracted nearby medical facility employees. 26 Johnson, Hillary Louise, 2017. The Place Maker. Sactown Magazine. [online] Available at:
https://www.sactownmag.com/the-place-maker/ [Accessed January 2021]. 27 Ibid.

The Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial Subareas diverge from the Study Area’s majority of renter-occupied households, each with approximately 62 percent of their households comprising owner-occupied dwelling units. See Figure 3-2.

Table 3-2. Household Tenure Summary by Study Subarea (2018) Item Total % of Total Total % of Total Total
% of Total in
Study Area
Study Subarea
Elmhurst 1,590 5.4% 961 3.2% 2,551 8.6%
Oak Park 2,139 7.2% 4,139 14.0% 6,278 21.2%
Fruitridge Pocket 895 3.0% 1,637 5.5% 2,532 8.5%
Tahoe & Colonial 4,547 15.3% 2,745 9.3% 7,292 24.6%
Lemon Hill 1,841 6.2% 3,590 12.1% 5,431 18.3%
South of Fruitridge 2,743 9.3% 2,817 9.5% 5,560 18.8%
Total Study Area 13,755 46.4% 15,889 53.6% 29,644 100.0% City of Sacramento 89,283 52.0% 82,321 48.0% 171,604 100.0% Source: U.S Census ACS 5-Year Estimates B25032 2018; EPS.

Total Occupied
Households
Owner-Occupied
Households
Renter-Occupied
Households
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 40 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 3-2. Housing Tenure Percentage: City of Sacramento and Study Area (2018)
Source: U.S Cenus ACS 5-Year Estimates B25032 2018; EPS.

37.7% 65.9% 64.7% 37.6% 66.1% 50.7% 53.6% 48.0%

62.3%

34.1% 35.3%

62.4%

33.9%

49.3% 46.4%

52.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Elmhurst Oak Park Fruitridge
Pocket
Tahoe &
Colonial
Lemon Hill South Of
Fruitridge
Study Area City of
Sacramento
Renter‐Occupied Owner‐Occupied
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 41 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Units in Structure
The Study Area is characterized by a predominance of single-family dwelling units. As of 2018, nearly 80 percent of all housing units were single-family units, relative to about 67 percent in the City overall. Conversely, about 19 percent of total housing units in the Study Area were multi-unit dwellings compared with 31 percent Citywide. See Table 3-3.

As of 2018, the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea had the largest concentration of single-unit dwellings, comprising about 95 percent of all housing in this subarea, whereas Lemon Hill’s single-unit dwellings comprise about 65 percent of its housing supply (less than the Citywide average). Multi-unit dwellings are most heavily concentrated in Lemon Hill and Oak Park, comprising 33 and 27 percent of each Subarea’s supply, respectively.

Structures with 5+ units reflect the majority of the supply of multi-unit dwellings in all of the Subareas, similar to the characteristics of multi-unit housing throughout the City.

Notably, the South of Fruitridge Subarea contains a concentration of manufactured homes, comprising nearly 9 percent of all units in this subarea.

Table 3-3. Units in Housing Structures (2018)
Item Total % Total % Total % Total % Total % Total
Study Subarea
Elmhurst 2,115 77% 94 3.4% 533 19.4% 627 22.9% 0 0.0% 2,742 Oak Park 5,073 72% 574 8.2% 1,344 19.1% 1,918 27.3% 28 0.4% 7,019 Fruitridge Pocket 2,358 84% 315 11.2% 91 3.2% 406 14.5% 44 1.6% 2,808 Tahoe & Colonial 7,228 95% 196 2.6% 112 1.5% 308 4.1% 64 0.8% 7,600 Lemon Hill 3,820 65% 661 11.3% 1,280 21.9% 1,941 33.3% 72 1.2% 5,833 South of Fruitridge 4,452 76% 260 4.4% 632 10.7% 892 15.2% 538 9.1% 5,882 Study Area 25,046 79% 2,100 6.6% 3,992 12.5% 6,092 19.1% 746 2.3% 31,884 City of Sacramento 131,223 67% 14,846 7.6% 46,671 23.8% 61,517 31.4% 3,009 1.5% 195,749 Source: U.S. Census 5-Year ACS Table B25032 2010 and 2018; EPS.

Housing Units (2018)
Single Dwelling Unit Total
Multi-Unit Dwellings
2 - 4 Units 5+ Units Mobile / RV
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Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 42 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Vacancy
As of 2018, the housing market in the Study Area was strong, with an overall vacancy rate of only 2.9 percent for both owner-and renter-occupied units, compared to an even stronger market Citywide, with a vacancy rate of less than 1.0 percent. See Figure 3-3.

As expected, the owner-occupied market in the Study Area had less movement than the rental market with very little vacancy (1.8 percent), though the rental market also had a low vacancy rate of about 4 percent. Typically, a healthy residential market has enough vacancy to allow for normal movement, with an industry standard of about 5-10 percent.

If an area’s vacancy falls below the 5-10 percent range the market is considered tight, which can make it difficult to find available, affordable housing.

Figure 3-3. Vacancy Rate Study Subarea and City of Sacramento (2010 and 2018)
Source: U.S Cenus ACS 5-Year Estimates Table B25032 2010 and 2018; EPS.

As of 2018, the Fruitridge Pocket Subarea had the highest vacancy rate with 6.1 percent vacancy in all units (based on a 7.8 percent vacancy rate in renter-occupied units and a

3.0 percent vacancy in owner-occupied units). In addition, the Fruitridge Pocket is the only Subarea that experienced an overall increase in vacancy between 2010 and 2018.

All other Subareas experienced decreased vacancy rates between 2010 and 2018, with the largest decrease occurring in the Lemon Hill and Oak Park Subareas, both dropping from about 9 percent down to about 3.5 percent vacancy.

4.2%

8.8%

4.2%

1.6%

8.9%

4.6%

5.4% 5.3%

1.8%

3.7%

6.1%

1.2%

3.6%

2.8% 2.9%

0.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Elmhurst Oak Park Fruitridge
Pocket
Tahoe &
Colonial
Lemon Hill South of
Fruitridge
Study Area City of
Sacramento
Vacancy Rate
2010 2018
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In 2018, the average median value for owner-occupied households in the Study Area was $235,640, approximately 33 percent lower than the median value for the City as a whole.28 The average median home value in the Study Subareas ranged from about $168,000 in Fruitridge Pocket to $353,000 in Elmhurst. The Subareas of Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial had higher median home values and higher percentages of owneroccupied units than the rest of the Study Area, as shown in Map 3-1. The Oak Park Subarea also had higher median home values than the southern Subareas although the Oak Park Subarea also has a smaller supply of owner-occupied households.

In the Elmhurst, Oak Park, and South of Fruitridge Subareas, the median value of homes increased slightly between 2010 and 2018 while the remaining Subareas including Fruitridge Pocket, Tahoe & Colonial, and Lemon Hill decreased.

Based on data from the Sacramento Association of Realtors, the median sales price for the Study Subareas in 2018 was about 30 percent higher than the median value from the ACS.29 As of 2018, the Study Area’s median home sales price was approximately $262,000, about 75 percent of City’s median home sales price as shown in Table 3-4.

With the exception of the Elmhurst Subarea, which had a median home sales price about 125 percent higher than the Citywide average, all Subareas had a substantially lower median home sales price ranging from $234,500 in Fruitridge Pocket to $307,000 in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea. Between 2010 and 2018, median sales prices in the Study Area and the City have risen substantially over the past 8 years, with a much larger increase in the Study Area (nearly 120 percent increase) relative to the City (85 percent increase).

The percentage change for average household income between the same time period is grossly mismatched with the increases in sales prices in both the Study Area and the City. Median home sale prices in the Study Area surpassed the growth of median household incomes in every Subarea, with greater disparities of growth in the Tahoe & Colonial, Oak Park, and Fruitridge Pocket Subareas. The Tahoe & Colonial and Oak Park Subareas experienced the greatest amount of growth, with median sales prices rising by 242 percent and 219 percent, respectively. The Elmhurst Subarea experienced the lowest growth increase, although still substantial at a nearly 95 percent increase, which exceeded Citywide median sales growth.
28 The median value per the ACS is based on the respondent’s estimate of how much the property would sell for it were for sale and the price asked for the property if vacant. 29 Actual home sale prices per the Sacramento Association of Realtors.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 44 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Table 3-4. Median Home Sales Prices (2010 in 2010$ and 2018 in 2018$) Item Zip Code(s) [1] 2010 in 2010$ 2018 in 2018$ [2]
Study Subarea
Elmhurst 95817, 95819 $222,000 $431,500 94.4% 39.8%
Oak Park 95817, 95820 $87,500 $278,700 218.5% 27.4%
Fruitridge Pocket 95820 $90,000 $234,500 160.6% 18.1%
Tahoe & Colonial 95820 $90,000 $307,900 242.1% 20.8%
Lemon Hill 95824, 95823 $110,000 $230,000 109.1% 11.3%
South of Fruitridge 95824, 95828 $117,000 $251,000 114.5% 19.7% Study Area $119,417 $262,000 119.4% 23.6%
City of Sacramento $186,916 $345,000 84.6% 16.3%
Source: Sacramento Association of Realtors; U.S. Census ACS Table S1903 2010 and 2018; EPS. [1]
[2] Sales data for 2018 were available by Census Tract. [3] Median household income derived from the US Census and reflects nominal dollars (not adjusted for inflation).

Sales data for 2010 by Census Tract was not accessible, EPS estimated median sales based on the median sales for the listed zip codes.

Median
Household
Income % Change
2010-2018 [3]
Median Home Sales Price
% Change
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Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 46 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Residential Rental Rates
Average residential rental rates between 2010 and 2018 in the Study Area increased at a slower rate than in the City as a whole. Study Area rent increased 21 percent to $1,041 per month compared to the City’s 39 percent surge and average rent of $1,211 per month. See Table 3-5. The Lemon Hill and Elmhurst Subareas experienced the largest rent increases within the Study Area with rents rising 29 percent and 23 percent, respectively (with average monthly rental rates of $860 and $1,092, respectively). As of 2018, the highest average rent in the Study Area occurred in the Elmhurst Subarea ($1,092 per month), although average rent was about 11 percent lower than average rent citywide. See 2 for average rents in the Study Area. The lowest average rent occurred in the Oak Park Subarea, reflecting a rate about 58 percent lower than the City’s average rent.

Comparing Map 3-1 and Map 3-2, the Subareas with a majority of owner-occupied dwelling units tend to have the highest average rents, including the Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial Subareas. These areas also have a lower percentage of multi-unit dwellings within their housing supply.

With the exception of findings for the Lemon Hill Subarea, median household incomes in the Study Area are keeping pace with median residential rental rates. See Table 3-5.

Rental rates in the Study Area increased 21 percent, while median household incomes grew by almost 24 percent. In comparison, residential rental rates Citywide increased by nearly 40 percent and median household income increased by only 16 percent. The Elmhurst, Oak Park, and South of Fruitridge Subareas experienced the larges income growth with median incomes surpassing rent growth by 13 to 17 percent, Tahoe & Colonial was smaller with a difference of 9 percent, where Fruitridge Pocket’s increase in rent and income equaled out, and Lemon Hill’s rent increase outpaced income.

Median Rent
% Change
Median
Household
Income % Change
2010-2018 [1]
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 48 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Map 3-2. Average Monthly Rent and Multi-Unit Dwellings as a Percentage of Total Dwelling Units: Study Area (2018)
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 49 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Commercial Market Context
As we prepare this analysis, the Pandemic has altered the business-as-usual model, with surges in unemployment, structural changes in spending activity, and increased uncertainty and stresses for businesses and communities. Nationwide, unemployment abruptly reached Depression Era levels in the early stages of the pandemic, see Figure 3-4. Though unemployment claims decreased after initial public health orders to limit the spread through stay-at-home orders, the quantity of continued claims remains higher than before the onset of the pandemic.

According to the Brookings Institute, the industries that are at highest risk from the Pandemic are retail, transportation, employment services, and leisure and hospitality.30 Assessing job industries by percentage in the City of Sacramento as of 2018, nearly 20 percent of jobs in the City of Sacramento are at the highest risk, as shown below in Figure 3-5, with 11 percent of jobs at risk in both Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Services industries and 2 percent of jobs in the Transportation and Warehousing and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industries. Bearing that in mind, there is no single industry that has been completely unaffected by the Pandemic.

The advent of numerous medical treatments to mitigate the impacts of the Pandemic are currently in motion, although the timeline for treatment administration, and thus, the length and severity of the pandemic, is still unknown. Given the uncertain timeline, the specific longer-term economic implications will depend on how the crisis and future fiscal response continues to unfold. The economic impacts may result in permanent shifts in the commercial sectors or may dissipate over the long-term. Additional context regarding specific commercial sectors is provided in the following sections. 30 Muro, Mark, Robert Maxim, and Jacob Whiton, 2020. The places a COVID-19 recession will likely hit hardest. The Brookings Institute. [online] Available at:
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/03/17/the-places-a-covid-19-recessionwill-likely-hit-hardest/ [Accessed November 2020].

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 50 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 3-5. City of Sacramento Highest At-Risk Jobs by Industry (2018) Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2018; EPS.
0 5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
0 1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Continued Claims
Initial Claims
Continued Claims Initial Claims
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; EPS.

Retail Trade, 11%
Transportation and
Warehousing, 2%
Arts, Entertainment, and
Recreation, 2%
Accommodation and
Food Services, 11%
All Other Jobs, 82%
High Risk Jobs, 18%
Figure 3-4. U.S. Unemployment Claims
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 51 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Retail
Beginning in 2009, the economic downturn, which spread across national and global markets, had a significant effect on the retail sector. At the national level, the combination of increased unemployment rates, reduced consumer credit, and an oversupply of retail space resulted in bankruptcies, store closures, and consolidations among a wide range of formerly successful retail chains that has continued through 2020.

Despite the volume of store closures, however, the dollar amount of retail spending continues to grow steadily, with the sector averaging about 5 percent growth in sales annually since 2010.31 At the same time, leading retail industry trends are impacting the size of brick-and-mortar retail space and reducing demand for new retail space nationally and locally. These trends include:
 The influx of online shopping (e-commerce);
 A change in spending patterns in the retail landscape, with consumers shifting from purchasing material items to spending more on experiential retail, such as restaurants, grooming services, and health and wellness services;32 and,  A shift in consumer preferences for retail center types from large, enclosed malls to “lifestyle centers,” mixed-use buildings in urban settings, and “main streets.”33 Overall, retail uses may experience potentially long-lasting effects of the Pandemic. The decline of brick-and-mortar retail has been accelerated by the current circumstances and demand for the most successful retail developments of the past decade, which have focused on providing experiential uses, have been impacted as a result of shelter in place orders. As consumers spend less and save more, demand for retail experiences as well as certain goods and services may decline in the short term. However, as medical treatments advance and restrictions are lifted, consumers will likely have pent-up demand for the retail formats that have been restricted (namely, food and beverage and entertainment). And, with its ethos of adaptation, the retail sector will likely innovate with new retail concepts and formats as it adapts to the Pandemic’s lingering impacts.

Office
In 2019, the national office real estate market exhibited a full recovery from the Great Recession, with its lowest post-recession vacancy rate, which actually fell below the 20- year vacancy rate average, and rental rates were increasingly strong.34 The onset of the 31 U.S. Total Retail Sales (1999-2020). The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce. [online] Available at: https://www.marketplacepulse.com/stats/us-ecommerce/us-total-retailsales-113 [Accessed January 2021]. 32 Chen, Oliver, John Kernan and John Blackledge, 2017. Retail’s Disruption Yields Opportunities—Store Wars! Cowen and Company. [online] Available at:
https://www.cowen.com/insights/retaildisruption/ [Accessed December 2017]. 33 Ibid.
34 ULI Real Estate Economic Forecast, November 2020.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 52 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Pandemic at the beginning of 2020 drastically altered work routines with approximately 42 percent of the U.S. labor force now working from home.35 The effects of the Pandemic on the office market have not fully apparent since most office leases are multi-year contracts, though the long-term impacts to occupancy will gradually emerge.

The effects of the Pandemic also present challenges to potential opportunities for office development. Demand for office space may be reduced by the emergence of more viable remote working arrangements for many office workers. In addition, new office construction with improved technology for health safety may be advantaged over existing building stock with less of an ability to adapt.

Medical Office
With an aging population, over the past five years medical office has been booming on a national level with trends pointing to a shift from hospital visits to outpatient uses.

Healthcare providers are focusing on integrated services in a campus setting. During the Pandemic there has been an increase in virtual doctor appointments, though it is difficult to predict whether this trend will be permanent. Like office space, improvements in building design and technology are expected to emerge as best practices are established to limit the spread of infectious disease.

Study Area Commercial Market Conditions
The following section examines the characteristics and trends of commercial uses in the Study Area to establish the context for accommodating future commercial development.36 Retail
Historically, the retail market in the Study Area has performed slightly below the Citywide average, with slightly higher vacancy rates and consistently lower monthly lease rates. As of 2020, the Study Area’s nearly 2.7 million square feet of retail supply comprises about 7 percent of all retail square footage in the City, and its 378 retail buildings comprise about 10 percent of the City’s total building inventory. See Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7.

Between 2010 and 2020, the total retail square footage in the Study Area decreased by about 5,000 square feet with negative net absorption of about 3,000 square feet, indicating a minimal change in demand for retail space, despite the Study Area’s population growth during this period. During the same time frame vacancy rates 35 Wong, May, 2020. Stanford research provides a snapshot of a new working-from-home economy. Stanford News. [online] Available at
https://news.stanford.edu/2020/06/29/snapshot-new-working-home-economy/ [Accessed November 2020].
36 CoStar data relies on information from brokers and other real estate entities and may contain data inconsistencies. Note that all CoStar data reflects trends in both the Study Area and Plan Area, which do not align because the Study Area uses Census Tract boundaries whereas the Plan Area uses parcel boundaries.

Recent retail investment and activity in the Study Area include the following:
• Redevelopment of the north end of the Fruitridge Shopping Center located at the southeast corner of Stockton Boulevard and Fruitridge Road in the South of Fruitridge Subarea, includes development of a new 15,000-square-foot CVS Pharmacy, a 2,200-square-foot Starbucks with a drive-thru, and an additional 13,868- square-foot multi-tenant retail building. This project is estimated to be completed in 2021.
• Originally anchored by a now shuttered, K-Mart, Stockton Plaza, located in the Fruitridge Pocket Subarea, has slowly been refilling and redeveloping with the addition of a 22,000-square-foot Planet Fitness in 2015, a 20,000-square-foot Smart & Final in 2019, and other smaller retail shops. The addition of 26,000-square-foot Ross Dress for Less and a Dutch Bros. Coffee kiosk are planned for the center, timing is unknown.
• The Food Source discount grocery store located on the northwest corner of Stockton Boulevard and Broadway in the Oak Park Subarea shuttered in March 2020. • The Broadway corridor in the Oak Park Subarea has experienced a number of small retail and restaurant additions and changes since the onset of many redevelopment projects over the past, almost 20 year, including the 40 Acres project, home to Old Soul, Fixin’s Soul Kitchen, the Guild Theater, Underground Books, and a barber shop, and the Broadway Triangle District, a project that applied adaptive reuse to buildings on 5 block corners in to achieve a mix of retail and housing, including residential units called Triangle East and West, the Plant Foundry, the Pedroni Building retail strip, and myriad retail spaces in rehabbed flat iron buildings. Recent additions include Slim & Husky’s Pizza Beeria, Oak Park Brewing Co., Strapping Gift Shop, Faria Bakery, and A Community for Peace social justice crisis center, many of which are either black- or woman-owned/run.
37 CoStar lease rates are in current year dollars. NNN = Triple Net Rents, which means the tenant is required to pay property taxes, insurance, and maintenance in addition to their rent.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 54 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 3-6. Retail Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010-2020)

Source: CoStar; EPS.
(5,562)
45,798 11,342
(61,545)
64,444 60,796 26,570 24,612
(5,612) (37,104) (58,289)
(120,033)
102,134
(11,725)
(118,139)
108,507
(53,595)
33,416
1,210,036
947,244
21,622
(130,435) 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
(200,000)
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Net Absorption City of Sacramento Net Absorption Study Area Vacancy Rate City of Sacramento Vacancy Rate Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 55 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Figure 3-7. Retail Total Vacant Inventory and Lease Rate Trends: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010-2020)

Source: CoStar; EPS.
311,614 276,972 261,343 299,224 264,411 214,615 190,610 165,998 167,758 204,862 237,087 3,944,238 3,889,911 3,951,460 4,018,688
3,820,454
3,235,637
3,371,062
2,904,142
2,511,751 2,556,152
2,749,013
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
$1.45
$1.50
0 500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Vacant Available Square Feet City of Sacramento Vacant Available Square Feet Study Area Monthly NNN Lease Rate City of Sacramento Monthly NNN Lease Rate Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 56 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Office
With a predominance of residential, medical, and retail space, the Study Area does not play a strong role in the City’s office market. The Study Area currently contains about

1.6 million square feet of space, representing about 3 percent of the City’s total office square footage, and comprising older and relatively small office buildings. The Study Area’s office inventory has an average year built or renovation of 1969 and an average size of 21,500 square feet per building.

Office space inventory in both the Study Area and City increased slightly between 2010 and 2020, with the addition of 3 buildings in the Study Area totaling 34,100 square feet and 13 in the City totaling 451,300 square feet. Consistent with the type of office inventory in the Study Area, recent inventory additions include two buildings, both under 8,000 square feet located on the southeast corner of Stockton Blvd and 48th Ave. and a small 1,800-square foot office space in the new apartment building, The Gio. Vacancy rates in the Study Area dropped sharply from 11 percent to a little more than 1 percent over the 2010 to 2020 period, while the City’s vacancy rate decreased at a less drastic rate from 12 percent to 8 percent. Despite the decline in vacancy, the Study Area experienced negative net absorption of about 91,400 square feet, indicating a greater amount of space was vacated or placed on the market than leased up and that net demand for office space has declined relative to supply in the Study Area. See Figure 3-8 and Figure 3-9.

A 67,500-square-foot mixed use building located at 6760-6820 Stockton Boulevard was constructed on speculation in 2006 has never been occupied and remains completely vacant. The 4.5-acre project with potential for retail, office, medical, educational, or corporate uses is listed for sale with an additional 8.5 acres of land ready for construction.

Further indicating weak demand for office space in the Study Area, monthly lease rates decreased by about 29 percent in the Study Area down to $1.02 per square foot per month between 2010 and 2018.39 In contrast, the City saw office rents rise about 16 percent, commanding average lease rates (about $2.16 per square foot per month) that are more than double asking rates in the Study Area.
39 CoStar lease rates are in current year dollars.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 57 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Figure 3-8. Office Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010-2020) Source: CoStar; EPS.
(83,118) (45,517)
138,395
14,334 24,263 942 9,475
(6,991)
12,153 43,142
(8,867)
(542,065) (531,147)
256,475
36,076
553,629
434,077
494,556
88,944
474,729
406,921
(46,194)
‐1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
(700,000)
(500,000)
(300,000)
(100,000)
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Net Absorption City of Sacramento Net Absorption Study Area Vacancy Rate City of Sacramento Vacancy Rate Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 58 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 3-9. Office Total Vacant Inventory and Lease Rate Trends: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010-2020) Source: CoStar; EPS.
169,328 214,845 96,306 81,972 71,960 71,018 61,543 68,534 56,381 13,239 22,106 5,415,384
6,101,531 5,864,857 5,852,394
5,337,052
4,910,838
4,422,017 4,333,073
4,005,998
3,599,077 3,649,362
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
(800,000)
200,000
1,200,000
2,200,000
3,200,000
4,200,000
5,200,000
6,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Vacant Available Square Feet City of Sacramento Vacant Available Square Feet Study Area Monthly Base Rate City of Sacramento Monthly Base Rate Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 59 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Medical Office
In the early 1900s, the State purchased over 150 acres along Stockton Boulevard, just north of Broadway, as a permanent site to house the annual California State Fair.

Following the Fair’s relocation to its current Cal Expo site, the acreage, located in the Elmhurst Subarea was sold to the UC Davis Medical Center, which is today a 625-bed multispecialty academic medical center.40 In the late 1990s, the Shriners Hospital for Children opened an 80-bed regional pediatric medical center adjacent to the Medical Center, cementing the area as a major health care hub for the Sacramento Region and broader Northern California market.

In addition to these medical facilities, the Study Area provides a little over 11 percent of the City’s medical office supply with a total of 645,157 building square feet. The Study Area did not add medical office inventory during the period between 2010 and 2020 but experienced positive net absorption of over 165,000 square feet, including the addition of a large 141,200-square-foot Sutter Health medical office building built in 2010 and other small lease transactions under 3,000 square feet. See Figure 3-10 and Figure 3-11.

While the medical office space in the Study Area declined to zero vacancy, monthly lease rates decreased in the Study Area from $1.98 per square foot to $1.25 per square foot.41 In comparison, lease rates for medical office space in the City are substantially higher and remained nearly static, from $1.88 to $1.89.

The proposed Aggie Square project envisions 2.4 million-square feet of mixed use innovation and research center uses with various land use categories as shown in Appendix B, Table B-1. While the land use plan for Aggie Square does not specifically mention medical office space, its location adjacent to existing medical facilities and synergistic land uses could likely accommodate any projected additional demand in the Study Area.
40 UC Davis Health About Us. [online] Available at: https://health.ucdavis.edu/aboutus/ [Accessed January 2021].
41 CoStar lease rates are in current year dollars.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 60 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Figure 3-10. Medical Office Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate Trends: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2010- 2020)
Source: CoStar; EPS.
137,910
(3,932)
10,032
(11,585)
1,600
22,685
2,000 6,000
(800)
800 0
109,495 114,142
(16,636)
108,425
54,509
101,337
88,566
55,202
93,894
(48,083)
(55,562)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
(100,000)
(50,000)
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Net Absorption City of Sacramento Net Absorption Study Area Vacancy Rate City of Sacramento Vacancy Rate Note: This analysis does not include hospital space.

Source: CoStar; EPS.
26,800 30,732 20,700 32,285 30,685 8,000 6,000 0 800 0 0 976,480
866,338 876,777 913,096
852,730
751,393
682,827
627,625
533,731 515,814
571,376
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
0 200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Study Area Vacant Available Square Feet City of Sacramento Vacant Available Square Feet Study Area Monthly NNN Lease Rate City of Sacramento Monthly NNN Lease Rate Note: Lease rates for the Study Area in 2017 are unavailable from CoStar; value shown is equal to 2016 lease rates. This analysis does not include hospital space.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 62 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Conclusions
In the Study Area, residential and retail development are likely the leading development land uses types due to the inexhaustible need for housing, especially affordable housing, and supportive retail. In addition, there is not much demand for office space in the Study Area and the market for medical office space will likely be fulfilled with the addition of Aggie Square. The projected demand for housing units and retail space is discussed further in Chapter 4.

4. Future Growth and Market Demand
This Study estimates demand for housing and retail space based on projected household growth in the Study Area and household spending on retail goods and services. This chapter provides background information on historic, existing (as of 2020), and projected growth in the Study Area and the City based on growth projections published by SACOG.

This chapter also examines the current level of market demand within the Study Area and estimates how much demand may be expected from planned growth. The spatial location of existing demand and future growth is also presented.

Residential Growth Projections
Based on data from ACS and SACOG, historical population and household trends and projected growth through 2040 are shown in Table 4-1.42 The methodology used to estimate projected growth in the Study Area is described further later in this section.

As shown in Table 4-1 and described in Chapter 2, as of 2020, the Study Area contained nearly 87,000 residents and almost 30,000 households. Based on 2036 SACOG data, which was extrapolated to determine projected growth by 2040 for this analysis, the Study Area is estimated to add almost 11,800 new residents and 4,040 new households by 2040. This level of growth is estimated to increase the Study Area population and households by a little more than 13 percent to 98,650 residents and 33,830 households by 2040, and translates into average, annual growth of about 590 residents and 200 households over the next 20 years. In comparison, between 2010 and 2018, the Study Area grew by an average of 480 residents and 170 households per year.

For context, the City is projected to add 96,900 new residents and 62,280 new households by 2040, translating into average annual growth of 4,850 residents and 3,100 households. Between 2020 and 2040, the Study Area is estimated to represent 12 percent of total Citywide population growth and 6 percent of household growth. 42 SACOG “ZIP Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) and Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level Summary 2012 Estimate, 2020, and 2036 Projections; February 2016.” SACOG provides population, household, and employment data for years 2012, 2020, and 2036; SACOG data is not available beyond 2036 by TAZ. Thus, EPS used the average annual growth rate between 2012 and 2020 to interpolate the base year of 2018. EPS estimated growth through 2040, using the average annual growth rate from 2020 to 2036 from SACOG’s projections, with adjustments, as necessary, based on the land use programs of approved and planned development projects in the Study Area.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 64 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Table 4- 1. Population and Household Estimates and Projections (2010- 2040)
Growth Projection Methodology
SACOG’s current 2040 projections provide residential projections at the county and city level only, precluding the ability to estimate projected growth in the Study Area specifically. SACOG’s previous projection dataset, which included projections through 2036, are offered at a smaller geographical level, the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ), an aggregation of which aligns with the Study Area boundary.43 As such, EPS used SACOG’s TAZ-level growth rates between 2020 and 2036 to extrapolate projections for the Study 43 See Appendix C, Table C-2 for a list of Study Area TAZ and the SACOG projections.

Item Population Households Persons/HH Population Households Persons/HH Year
82,177 28,260 2.9 466,488 173,938 2.7
84,004 28,837 2.9 467,467 176,061 2.7
86,350 29,124 3.0 472,693 183,419 2.6
86,005 29,644 2.9 508,517 182,677 2.8
86,848 29,791 2.9 521,557 188,225 2.8
95,562 32,770 2.9 601,234 243,717 2.5
98,646 33,827 2.9 618,439 250,506 2.5
Growth (2020 - 2040)
Number 11,798 4,037 -- 96,882 62,281 --
% Change 13.6% 13.5% -- 18.6% 33.1% --
Avg. Annual Change 0.6% 0.6% -- 0.9% 1.4% --
Household Vacancy 5.0% 5.0%
Housing Units (2020-2040) Housing Units Housing Units
Total Projected Housing Units -- 4,238 -- -- 65,395 --
Average Annual Housing Units -- 212 -- -- 3,270 --
pop and hh
[1] SACOG's most recent projections are only available at city and county levels. [2]
[3]
[4]
2020
2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Table S0101; Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) MTP 2020/SCS 2016, 2035, and 2040; SACOG 2016 MTP/SCS Modeling Projections by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) for 2012, 2020 and 2036; EPS.

Population and household estimates for the City of Sacramento for 2010, 2012, and 2018 per ACS. Estimates and projections from 2016 to 2040 per SACOG MTP 2020/SCS 2016, 2035, and 2040. 2035
2040
Population and household estimates for the Study Area from 2010 to 2018 per ACS. Projections for 2020 to 2040 are based on ACS numbers escalated by SACOG average annual growth rates from the SACOG 2016 MTP/SCS Modeling Projections by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) for 2012, 2020 and 2036.

The average vacancy rate in the Study Area between 2010 and 2018 is 4.2% and 3.1% in the City of Sacramento. EPS assumes a 5.0% vacancy rate for future housing housing. 2016
Study Area [1] [2] City of Sacramento [3]
2010
2012
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 65 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Area through 2040. Citywide projections shown in Table 4-1 reflect growth projections derived from SACOG’s current 2040 dataset.

Estimated Housing Demand
The projected growth in households described in the previous section can be translated into projected demand for new housing units by applying a conservative vacancy rate to account for residential turnover. Despite historical low vacancy rates in the Study Area and City, this study applied an average vacancy rate of 5 percent, indicative of a healthy housing market, to determine residential demand for an additional 4,240 housing units, or an average of 212 new housing units per year, between 2020 and 2040. In comparison, there was an average of 95 units added per year in the Study Area between 2000 and 2020.

SACOG projections indicate the bulk of new population and household growth is expected to occur in the Tahoe & Colonial, Oak Park, and South of Fruitridge Subareas. This study also notes current pipeline projects in Appendix B, Table B-1 and Table B-2 located in the Study Subareas. This list includes recently completed projects (e.g., The Gio) and projects that have been proposed or are under review. To date, there are an estimated 1,558 additional units (excluding The Gio) proposed for development in the Study Area, including one known affordable housing project containing 116 units. While not explicitly included in the 2036 SACOG projections, these pipeline projects will fulfill a proportion of projected growth.

Market Rate Residential Demand
As shown in Table 4-2, as of 2018, about 27 percent of households in the Study Area achieved household income levels at or above what is defined as the “Median” Income in 2020 by the State of California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD), which is $77,650 for a household size of 3, but varies based on household size.44 44 HCD’s income limits define income levels based on an Area’s Median Income (AMI). In 2020, the AMI for Sacramento County for a family of 3 is $77,650. The income limits for households are defined as follows: “Extremely Low” is 30 percent or less of AMI; “Very Low” is between 30 percent and 50 percent of AMI, “Low” is between 50 percent and 80 percent of AMI; “Median” is between 80 percent and 100 percent of AMI; and “Moderate” is between 100 percent and 120 percent of AMI.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 66 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Table 4- 2. Households by Income Range: Study Area and City of Sacramento (2018) This analysis estimates demand for market rate housing from the number of projected incremental new households with an average annual income of $75,000 or more, based on the 2020 median income of $77,650. The percentage of household by income range is based on the 2018 ACS income level percentages, which were applied to projected incremental new housing units.

Applying the income distribution percentages to future Study Area housing units establishes a projected demand for the addition of 1,130 market rate units to be developed in the Study Area between 2020 and 2040, as shown on Table 4-3, equating to 27 percent of total housing units demanded in the Study Area.

The estimated minimum value in 2020 dollars of a market rate home is about $245,000 and minimum rent is $1,800 based on estimated housing costs based on the 2020 Income Limits AMI for Sacramento County shown in Appendix B, Table B-4 and Table B-5. This means that this Study estimates about 27 percent of projected households, households defined as “Median” and higher, earn enough money to buy a home with a purchase price of $245,000 or more or to pay monthly rent of $1,800 or more using 35 percent of their income or less.45 See Table B-4 and Table B-5 in Appendix B for more details regarding housing cost assumptions.
45 Per the City of Sacramento's Mixed Housing Income Ordinance in Municipal Code Chapter

17.712, qualification for affordable housing prices shall be based on no more than 35% of income being applied to housing expenses.

Item Households % Households %
Income Range
<$15,000 Extremely Low 4,947 16.7% 23,017 12.6%
$15,000 - $24,999 Extremely Low - Very Low 4,056 13.7% 17,172 9.4% $25,000 - $34,999 Extremely Low - Very Low 2,957 10.0% 16,076 8.8% $35,000 - $49,999 Very Low - Low 4,562 15.4% 22,469 12.3% $50,000 - $74,999 Very Low - Low 5,218 17.6% 32,517 17.8% $75,000 - $99,999 Low - Median - Moderate 3,365 11.4% 22,835 12.5% $100,000 - $149,999 Above Moderate 2,948 9.9% 26,671 14.6% $150,000 - $199,999 Above Moderate 952 3.2% 11,326 6.2% $200,000+ Above Moderate 640 2.2% 10,595 5.8%
Total 29,644 100.0% 182,677 100.0%
Median Household Income $44,694 - $58,456 -
household income
[1] EPS estimated the income range within the HCD 2020 income limits based on a household of 3 as shown in Table B-1.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS Table S1901 for 2019; United States Department of Housing and Urban Development FY 2020 Income Limits; State of California Department of Housing and Community Development, "State Income Limits for 2020"; EPS.

HCD Income Level [1]
Study Area City of Sacramento
2018 Households
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx 67 Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) Demand for 1,130 market rates units equals almost 80 percent of the proposed market rate residential units in the development pipeline summarized in Table B-2. That is, the estimated demand for 1,130 market rate units would be met if about 80 percent of the proposed, pipeline projects are approved and developed by 2040.

Table 4-3. New Study Area Household Demand by Income Level (2020- 2040)
Affordable Housing Demand
Also shown in Table 4-2, as of 2018, 73 percent of households in the Study Area fall within income levels defined by HCD as “Extremely Low”, “Very Low”, and “Low.” This means that 73 percent of households in the Study Area would be challenged to own a house that is priced at or above about $245,000 or pay more than about $1,800 per month for rent, which is the estimated calculation for a “Low” income household of 3.46 The median sale price of homes in the Study Area as of 2018 was $262,000 and median monthly rents were about $1,100, as discussed in Chapter 3. This means that if a household spent 35 percent of their income on housing costs for purchasing a home, based on housing costs shown in Table B-4 and Table B-5, more than the estimated 73 percent of households in the Study Area in 2018 would have not been able to purchase 46 See Table B-4 in Appendix B for estimated housing costs.

Item 2020- 2040 [1]
Formula A B = A * 2020 -2040 Units
Income Range
$0 to $24,999 Extremely Low - Very Low 30% 1,287
$25,000 to $34,999 Extremely Low - Very Low 10% 423
$35,000 to $49,999 Very Low - Low 15% 652
$50,000 to $74,999 Very Low - Low 18% 746
$75,000 to $99,999 Low - Median - Moderate 11% 481
$100,000 to $149,999 Above Moderate 10% 421
$150,000 to $199,999 Above Moderate 3% 136
$200,000 or more Above Moderate 2% 92
Total 100% 4,238
Residential Demand
Market Rate Median, Moderate, and Above Moderate 27% 1,130 Affordable Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low 73% 3,108
Total Housing Units 100% 4,238
proj HH
[1] See Table 4-1.

Study Area Households
HCD Income Level
Projected New
Housing Units
HH % by
Income
2018
Source: United States Department of Housing and Urban Development FY 2020 Income Limits; State of California Department of Housing and Community Development, "State Income Limits for 2020"; EPS.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 68 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx half of the existing housing supply in the Study Area or would have had to spend more than the estimated 35 percent of their income on housing costs. In addition, approximately 56 percent of households in the Study Area, households defined as “Extremely Low” and “Very Low”, would not earn enough to spend 35 percent or less on half of the existing housing and would have had to spend more than the estimated 35 percent on their rental costs as shown in Appendix B, Table B-4.

Applying the 2018 income distribution percentages to future Study Area housing units for households that would be defined as “Extremely Low”, “Very Low”, and “Low” establishes a projected demand for the addition about 3,110 affordable units to be developed in the Study Area between 2020 and 2040 as shown in Table 4-3. The only proposed project specifically designated as affordable in Table B-2 is the project located in the Lemon Hill Subarea with 116 total units. If approved and developed, this project would meet 4 percent of demand for affordable units in the Study Area.

Estimated Retail Demand
This section reviews retail spending in the Study Area to estimate supportable retail in the Study Area from projected Study Area household growth and applies a range of capture rates to estimate different potential supportable retail sales and associated square footage scenarios. The potential capture for new retail located in the Study Area from new households will be based on the estimated extent of household spending and the addition of neighborhood-serving retail that may locate in the Study Area. The potential capture also depends on competitive retail options located directly adjacent to the Study Area and elsewhere, as well as in the City.

Existing Retail Inventory
As discussed in Chapter 3, the Study Area has an estimated 2.7 million square feet of retail space as of 2020. Stockton Blvd, Broadway, and Fruitridge are the main commercial corridors in the Study Area, which include “main street-type” commercial concentrations and neighborhood- and community-serving retail centers. Prominent retail centers in the Study Area are detailed below.
• In the Elmhurst Subarea, there is a stand-alone Target store on 65th St and 4th Avenue.
• The Food Source discount grocery store located on the northwest corner of Stockton Boulevard and Broadway in the Oak Park Subarea shuttered in March 2020 and is currently vacant. This space is anticipated that it will soon be re-leased to another grocery tenant. This center also has a Walgreens and Chase Bank. • Tallac Village Shopping Center, on 14th Avenue in the Tahoe & Colonial Subarea, includes a smaller grocery store and smaller restaurants and service-oriented retail.

The following areas contain “main street-type” concentrations of retail in the Study Area:
 The section of Broadway in the Oak Park Subarea also discussed in Chapter 3, which includes redeveloped retail projects 40 Acres and the Broadway Triangle;  Along Broadway straddling the Elmhurst and Tahoe & Colonial Subareas, which includes a variety of restaurants and service-oriented retail;  On Stockton Blvd from about 10th Avenue to about 15th Avenue including smaller restaurants and retail.
 Franklin Blvd in the Oak Park Subarea from Fruitridge to 12th Ave, is a concentration of Hispanic-oriented retail and a strip of restaurants in the Curtis Park neighborhood.
 The Little Saigon District, which spans two miles along Stockton Blvd from Fruitridge to the southern City boundary includes a concentration of Vietnamese businesses as well as other retail in the Lemon Hill Subarea. This area includes, myriad restaurants and smaller retail stores, Rite Aid, the Fruitridge Shopping Center mentioned above, 4 larger ethnic supermarkets, a DD’s Discounts, and the Pacific Rim Plaza, also mentioned above.

Notable competitive retail outlets located adjacent to the Study Area include:
 Retail on the Folsom Blvd corridor near Alhambra Blvd and then from 47th Avenue to about Power Inn Rd. This stretch includes a mix of small retail and restaurants, grocery stores and big box stores such as Home Depot and Office Depot.

Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 70 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx  A continuation of retail along the Broadway corridor west of Hwy 99 includes Smart & Final, older restaurants and other small retail shops.
 The newly developed Crocker Village Shopping Center anchored by Safeway and Pet Supplies Plus.
 Florin Road, including the Florin Towne Center, anchored by Walmart, Dollar Tree, PetSmart, Burlington, and Autozone), Southgate Plaza (anchored by 99 Ranch and Ross), a FoodMaxx across from Southgate Plaza.

Projected Incremental New Retail Demand
The Study Area is estimated to capture newly created demand from residential growth in the Study Area.47 To quantify retail demand of new Study Area households, EPS developed an analytical model that relies on current Study Area household income and consumer spending patterns.48 Assumptions underlying each component of existing Study Area household demand can be found in Appendix B.49
Table 4-4 shows expenditure estimates per Study Area household. EPS estimates that, on average, Study Area households have a household income of approximately $44,694 and spend about 45 percent of their income on retail goods and services (approximately $20,000 per year).50
Study Area Capture of Study Area Demand
Through 2040, the Study Area is estimated to accommodate projected residential growth of about 4,040 new households, as described previously. For this analysis, an average of $17,300 per Study Area household is used to estimate total projected Study Area retail spending from new households.51 New households in the Study Area are estimated to add an additional $69.6 million in spending power by 2040 as shown in Table 4-4.

Existing and new retail development in the Study Area is estimated to capture a portion of this incremental new Study Area household spending.
47 To remain conservative, this Study does not estimate demand from the growth of Study Area employees with the assumption that demand for retail space already may be accounted for in household demand projections.
48 Consumer spending patterns exclude spending on e-commerce retail goods and services, which are, as a conservative assumption, not anticipated to contribute to demand for physical retail space.
49 Table B-6 estimates the household retail expenditures based on median household income.

Table B-7 estimates the percentage of spending at retail stores by retail category. 50 Includes retail spending on physical retail outlets only; excludes spending on e-commerce retail goods and services.
51 EPS eliminated household spending on gas stations and motor vehicles and parts dealers from the total spending calculated in Table B-6 as this analysis because part of the focus on this Project is to create a multi-modal, pedestrian and bicycle-friendly community with less orientation to the automobile that the area’s historical past.

Item
Formula A B = A * 4,037
Projected New Study Area Households [3] 4,037
Retail and Food Services
Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $1,557 $6,285,411 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $995 $4,015,237 Food and Beverage Stores $4,397 $17,747,234
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $1,513 $6,105,674 General Merchandise Stores $3,119 $12,591,070
Food Services and Drinking Places $3,920 $15,823,354
Other Retail $1,754 $7,079,530
Total $17,254 $69,647,509
Source: EPS.

NOTE: FIGURES MAY NOT TOTAL BECAUSE OF ROUNDING.
[1] See Table B-6.
[2]
[3] See Table 4-1.

Net New Study Area
Household Spending
(Demand)
(2020 - 2040) [2]
The demand from Market Area household growth is derived by multiplying total households by the amount of spending per household for each retail category.

Spending per HH
[1]
Final Report: Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan Economic Context February 9, 2021
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 72 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\192000\192166 Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan\Report\192166 Stockton Blvd SP Economic Context Final Report 02-09-2021_CLEAN.docx Table 4- 5. Projected Supportable Retail Sales and Square Feet: Study Area (2020-2040) in 2018$
The projected supportable retail space shown in this study is a conservative estimate based on data available at this time. Additional sources of demand could be achieved through capture of existing leakage (to the extent leakage exists), demand from employees that work in the Study Area, but do not reside in the Study Area, and pass-by traffic from populations outside of the Study Area. It is anticipated that this retail demand analysis may be refined, as needed, following supplemental conversations regarding community preferences related to new retail outlets, and the feasibility of specific retail concepts and tenants.

Item 25% 75% 25% 75%
Formula A = Table 4-4 B = A * 25% D = A * 75% E F = B * E H = D * E Retail and Food Services
Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $6,285,411 $1,571,353 $4,714,058 $573 2,741 8,224 Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $4,015,237 $1,003,809 $3,011,428 $389 2,583 7,749 Food and Beverage Stores $17,747,234 $4,436,809 $13,310,426 $565 7,855 23,566 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $6,105,674 $1,526,418 $4,579,255 $404 3,777 11,331 General Merchandise Stores $12,591,070 $3,147,767 $9,443,302 $393 8,006 24,019 Food Services and Drinking Places $15,823,354 $3,955,839 $11,867,516 $537 7,361 22,082 Other Retail $7,079,530 $1,769,882 $5,309,647 $228 7,753 23,258 Total $69,647,509 $17,411,877 $52,235,632 - 40,076 120,229 Source: EPS.
[1] See Table B-8 for total retail sales per square foot by retail category.

Range of Study Area
Captured Supportive Sales
from New Households
(2020 - 2040)
Range of
Supportive Retail
Square Footage in
the Study Area
(2020 - 2040)
Net New
Study Area
Household
Spending
(Demand)
(2020 - 2040) [2]
Estimated
Retail Sales
per Square
Foot [1]
APPENDICES:

Appendix A: Employment and Jobs
Appendix B: Future Demand: Housing and
Retail
Appendix C: Geographic Boundaries in the
Study Area

APPENDIX A:

Employment and Jobs
Table A-1 Employed Residents by Industry: Study Area,
City of Sacramento, and Sacramento County ........... A-1 Table A-2 Employed Residents by Industry:

Study Subareas (2 pages) .................................... A-2 Table A-3 Employed Residents by Occupation:

Study Area, City of Sacramento, and
Sacramento County (2 pages) ............................... A-4 Table A-4 Employed Residents by Occupation:

Study Subareas (3 pages) .................................... A-6 Table A-5 Jobs by Industry (2 pages) ................................... A-9 Table A-6 Jobs by Industry, Subareas (3 pages) .................. A-11

Table A-1
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Industry (2010 - 2018)
Industry (NAICS) [1] Total Share Total Share Total % City County Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) 292 1.0% 351 1.0% 59 20.2% 29.8% 6.4% 1,242 0.6% 1,177 0.6% (65) (5.2%) 3,365 0.5% 5,486 0.9% 2,121 63.0% Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21) 11 0.0% 38 0.1% 27 245.5% 35.5% 8.8% 84 0.0% 107 0.1% 23 27.4% 406 0.1% 432 0.1% 26 6.4% Utilities (22) 199 0.7% 130 0.4% (69) (34.7%) 7.3% 1.9% 1,792 0.9% 1,780 0.9% (12) (0.7%) 6,200 1.0% 7,018 1.1% 818 13.2% Construction (23) 2,583 8.5% 3,447 9.5% 864 33.4% 25.6% 7.9% 12,734 6.2% 13,446 6.6% 712 5.6% 46,938 7.5% 43,737 7.0% (3,201) (6.8%) Manufacturing (31-33) 2,172 7.1% 2,179 6.0% 7 0.3% 19.4% 5.7% 10,533 5.2% 11,238 5.5% 705 6.7% 36,492 5.8% 38,148 6.1% 1,656 4.5% Wholesale Trade (42) 730 2.4% 970 2.7% 240 32.9% 17.1% 5.7% 5,670 2.8% 5,664 2.8% (6) (0.1%) 18,389 2.9% 17,066 2.7% (1,323) (7.2%) Retail Trade (44-45) 3,229 10.6% 4,072 11.3% 843 26.1% 18.4% 5.4% 20,848 10.2% 22,115 10.8% 1,267 6.1% 69,779 11.1% 75,105 12.0% 5,326 7.6% Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 1,280 4.2% 1,409 3.9% 129 10.1% 13.7% 4.6% 8,218 4.0% 10,315 5.0% 2,097 25.5% 24,130 3.9% 30,687 4.9% 6,557 27.2% Information (51) 683 2.2% 502 1.4% (181) (26.5%) 12.6% 4.0% 5,831 2.9% 3,993 2.0% (1,838) (31.5%) 15,996 2.6% 12,415 2.0% (3,581) (22.4%) Finance and Insurance (52) 654 2.2% 1,124 3.1% 470 71.9% 11.5% 3.4% 9,731 4.8% 9,755 4.8% 24 0.2% 34,660 5.5% 33,141 5.3% (1,519) (4.4%) Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53) 415 1.4% 612 1.7% 197 47.5% 12.5% 4.0% 4,448 2.2% 4,899 2.4% 451 10.1% 14,846 2.4% 15,164 2.4% 318 2.1% Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54) 1,005 3.3% 1,588 4.4% 583 58.0% 9.8% 3.5% 14,408 7.0% 16,181 7.9% 1,773 12.3% 40,359 6.4% 45,698 7.3% 5,339 13.2% Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55) 34 0.1% 37 0.1% 3 8.8% 18.0% 8.3% 154 0.1% 205 0.1% 51 33.1% 547 0.1% 448 0.1% (99) (18.1%) Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56) 2,364 7.8% 2,664 7.4% 300 12.7% 22.8% 7.6% 10,676 5.2% 11,673 5.7% 997 9.3% 31,846 5.1% 34,865 5.6% 3,019 9.5% Educational Services (61) 2,453 8.1% 2,661 7.4% 208 8.5% 13.2% 4.8% 15,925 7.8% 20,111 9.8% 4,186 26.3% 48,593 7.8% 55,152 8.8% 6,559 13.5% Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 4,321 14.2% 4,707 13.0% 386 8.9% 14.7% 4.8% 26,819 13.1% 32,120 15.7% 5,301 19.8% 80,142 12.8% 98,273 15.7% 18,131 22.6% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71) 555 1.8% 1,020 2.8% 465 83.8% 18.5% 6.5% 4,281 2.1% 5,507 2.7% 1,226 28.6% 12,295 2.0% 15,661 2.5% 3,366 27.4% Accommodation and Food Services (72) 2,692 8.9% 3,515 9.7% 823 30.6% 19.8% 7.0% 15,418 7.5% 17,756 8.7% 2,338 15.2% 40,418 6.5% 49,870 8.0% 9,452 23.4% Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81) 1,738 5.7% 2,059 5.7% 321 18.5% 17.8% 5.9% 10,129 5.0% 11,596 5.7% 1,467 14.5% 30,891 4.9% 34,990 5.6% 4,099 13.3% Public Administration (9A-9B) 2,986 9.8% 3,037 8.4% 51 1.7% 11.2% 4.2% 25,573 12.5% 27,160 13.3% 1,587 6.2% 69,602 11.1% 72,663 11.6% 3,061 4.4% Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over 30,396 100.0% 36,122 100.0% 5,726 18.8% 204,514 100.0% 226,798 100.0% 22,284 10.9% 625,894 100.0% 686,019 100.0% 60,125 9.6% res industry
Source: US Census Bureau ACS, 2010 and 2018 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S2403); EPS. [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers.

Employed Residents by Industry
(2010 - 2018)
2010 2018 2010 2018 2010 2018
City of Sacramento Sacramento County
Change 2018 as % of Change Change
Study Area
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Table A-2
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Industry, Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Industry (NAICS) [1] Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) 66 2.8% 0 0.0% (66) (100.0%) 0 0.0% 30 0.4% 30 - 8 0.4% 120 4.6% 112 1400.0% Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 0 0.0% 5 0.1% 5 - 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - Utilities (22) 68 2.9% 34 1.3% (34) (50.0%) 26 0.5% 55 0.7% 29 111.5% 0 0.0% 11 0.4% 11 - Construction (23) 141 6.0% 158 6.1% 17 12.1% 462 8.5% 570 7.6% 108 23.4% 228 10.1% 439 16.7% 211 92.5% Manufacturing (31-33) 47 2.0% 143 5.5% 96 204.3% 345 6.3% 418 5.5% 73 21.2% 214 9.5% 112 4.3% (102) (47.7%) Wholesale Trade (42) 72 3.1% 73 2.8% 1 1.4% 146 2.7% 277 3.7% 131 89.7% 24 1.1% 107 4.1% 83 345.8% Retail Trade (44-45) 99 4.2% 232 8.9% 133 134.3% 452 8.3% 666 8.8% 214 47.3% 270 12.0% 318 12.1% 48 17.8% Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 56 2.4% 51 2.0% (5) (8.9%) 242 4.4% 190 2.5% (52) (21.5%) 41 1.8% 83 3.2% 42 102.4% Information (51) 32 1.4% 69 2.6% 37 115.6% 119 2.2% 120 1.6% 1 0.8% 0 0.0% 16 0.6% 16 - Finance and Insurance (52) 45 1.9% 114 4.4% 69 153.3% 192 3.5% 269 3.6% 77 40.1% 16 0.7% 24 0.9% 8 50.0% Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53) 13 0.6% 15 0.6% 2 15.4% 73 1.3% 121 1.6% 48 65.8% 0 0.0% 18 0.7% 18 - Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54) 198 8.4% 276 10.6% 78 39.4% 257 4.7% 548 7.3% 291 113.2% 24 1.1% 33 1.3% 9 37.5% Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 34 0.6% 16 0.2% (18) (52.9%) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56) 36 1.5% 67 2.6% 31 86.1% 274 5.0% 403 5.3% 129 47.1% 411 18.3% 310 11.8% (101) (24.6%) Educational Services (61) 341 14.5% 467 17.9% 126 37.0% 469 8.6% 553 7.3% 84 17.9% 154 6.9% 153 5.8% (1) (0.6%) Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 507 21.5% 251 9.6% (256) (50.5%) 883 16.2% 1,290 17.1% 407 46.1% 480 21.4% 298 11.3% (182) (37.9%) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71) 5 0.2% 79 3.0% 74 1480.0% 128 2.3% 271 3.6% 143 111.7% 46 2.0% 68 2.6% 22 47.8% Accommodation and Food Services (72) 183 7.8% 167 6.4% (16) (8.7%) 361 6.6% 592 7.8% 231 64.0% 86 3.8% 125 4.8% 39 45.3% Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81) 149 6.3% 81 3.1% (68) (45.6%) 390 7.1% 456 6.0% 66 16.9% 186 8.3% 160 6.1% (26) (14.0%) Public Administration (9A-9B) 296 12.6% 328 12.6% 32 10.8% 608 11.1% 695 9.2% 87 14.3% 60 2.7% 233 8.9% 173 288.3% Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over 2,354 100.0% 2,605 100.0% 251 10.7% 5,461 100.0% 7,545 100.0% 2,084 38.2% 2,248 100.0% 2,628 100.0% 380 16.9% Source: US Census Bureau ACS, 2010 and 2018 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S2403); EPS. [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers.

Employed Residents by Industry,
Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Elmhurst Oak Park
2010 2018 Change 2010 2018
Fruitridge Pocket
Change 2010 2018 Change
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Table A-2
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Industry, Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Industry (NAICS) [1] Total
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) 66
Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21) 0
Utilities (22) 68
Construction (23) 141
Manufacturing (31-33) 47
Wholesale Trade (42) 72
Retail Trade (44-45) 99
Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 56
Information (51) 32
Finance and Insurance (52) 45
Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53) 13
Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54) 198
Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55) 0
Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56) 36
Educational Services (61) 341
Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 507
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71) 5
Accommodation and Food Services (72) 183
Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81) 149
Public Administration (9A-9B) 296
Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over 2,354
Source: US Census Bureau ACS, 2010 and 2018 5-Year Estimates Subje [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers.
201
Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % 40 0.5% 27 0.3% (13) (32.5%) 108 1.8% 101 1.5% (7) (6.5%) 70 1.0% 73 1.0% 3 4.3% 0 0.0% 33 0.4% 33 - 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 11 0.2% 0 0.0% (11) (100.0%) 97 1.3% 15 0.2% (82) (84.5%) 0 0.0% 9 0.1% 9 - 8 0.1% 6 0.1% (2) (25.0%) 407 5.5% 789 8.4% 382 93.9% 599 10.0% 932 14.3% 333 55.6% 746 10.8% 559 7.5% (187) (25.1%) 320 4.3% 506 5.4% 186 58.1% 684 11.4% 418 6.4% (266) (38.9%) 562 8.1% 582 7.8% 20 3.6% 218 2.9% 187 2.0% (31) (14.2%) 143 2.4% 164 2.5% 21 14.7% 127 1.8% 162 2.2% 35 27.6% 809 10.9% 934 10.0% 125 15.5% 766 12.8% 965 14.8% 199 26.0% 833 12.1% 957 12.9% 124 14.9% 249 3.4% 459 4.9% 210 84.3% 350 5.8% 339 5.2% (11) (3.1%) 342 5.0% 287 3.9% (55) (16.1%) 139 1.9% 124 1.3% (15) (10.8%) 106 1.8% 81 1.2% (25) (23.6%) 287 4.2% 92 1.2% (195) (67.9%) 172 2.3% 380 4.1% 208 120.9% 84 1.4% 100 1.5% 16 19.0% 145 2.1% 237 3.2% 92 63.4% 243 3.3% 187 2.0% (56) (23.0%) 67 1.1% 138 2.1% 71 106.0% 19 0.3% 133 1.8% 114 600.0% 394 5.3% 338 3.6% (56) (14.2%) 68 1.1% 210 3.2% 142 208.8% 64 0.9% 183 2.5% 119 185.9% 0 0.0% 6 0.1% 6 - 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 0 0.0% 15 0.2% 15 - 442 6.0% 722 7.7% 280 63.3% 465 7.7% 631 9.7% 166 35.7% 736 10.7% 531 7.1% (205) (27.9%) 721 9.7% 992 10.6% 271 37.6% 376 6.3% 179 2.7% (197) (52.4%) 392 5.7% 317 4.3% (75) (19.1%) 918 12.4% 1,176 12.5% 258 28.1% 704 11.7% 721 11.0% 17 2.4% 829 12.0% 971 13.1% 142 17.1% 138 1.9% 190 2.0% 52 37.7% 131 2.2% 170 2.6% 39 29.8% 107 1.5% 242 3.3% 135 126.2% 567 7.6% 899 9.6% 332 58.6% 639 10.6% 808 12.4% 169 26.4% 856 12.4% 924 12.4% 68 7.9% 365 4.9% 428 4.6% 63 17.3% 290 4.8% 280 4.3% (10) (3.4%) 358 5.2% 654 8.8% 296 82.7% 1,184 16.0% 988 10.5% (196) (16.6%) 425 7.1% 288 4.4% (137) (32.2%) 413 6.0% 505 6.8% 92 22.3% 7,423 100.0% 9,380 100.0% 1,957 26.4% 6,005 100.0% 6,534 100.0% 529 8.8% 6,905 100.0% 7,430 100.0% 525 7.6% res industry sa
Employed Residents by Industry,
Subareas (2010 - 2018)
2018 Change 2010 2018 Change
South of Fruitridge
2010 2018 Change
Tahoe & Colonial Lemon Hill
2010
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Table A-3
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Occupation (2010 - 2018)
Occupation (SOC) Total Share Total Share Total % City County Total Share Total Share Total % Management Occupations (11-0000) High 1,674 5.5% 2,124 5.9% 450 26.9% 11.0% 3.3% 19,001 9.3% 19,372 8.5% 371 2.0% Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) High 1,443 4.7% 1,681 4.7% 238 16.5% 11.3% 3.8% 13,308 6.5% 14,815 6.5% 1,507 11.3% Computer and Mathematical Occupations (15-0000) High 585 1.9% 848 2.3% 263 45.0% 8.4% 2.9% 7,433 3.6% 10,118 4.5% 2,685 36.1% Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) High 181 0.6% 653 1.8% 472 260.8% 14.1% 4.7% 3,640 1.8% 4,633 2.0% 993 27.3% Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) High 354 1.2% 304 0.8% (50) (14.1%) 9.6% 4.3% 2,815 1.4% 3,179 1.4% 364 12.9% Community and Social Service Occupations (21-0000) High 595 2.0% 642 1.8% 47 7.9% 15.3% 5.1% 4,190 2.0% 4,200 1.9% 10 0.2% Legal Occupations (23-0000) High 338 1.1% 276 0.8% (62) (18.3%) 6.6% 3.2% 4,247 2.1% 4,198 1.9% (49) (1.2%) Educational Instruction, and Library Occupations (25-0000) High 1,274 4.2% 1,899 5.3% 625 49.1% 14.5% 5.2% 9,769 4.8% 13,133 5.8% 3,364 34.4% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) High 431 1.4% 875 2.4% 444 103.0% 17.4% 6.5% 4,472 2.2% 5,027 2.2% 555 12.4% Health Diagnosing & Treating Pract. and Other Tech. Occ. (29-1000) High 665 2.2% 1,087 3.0% 422 63.5% 12.9% 4.2% 5,727 2.8% 8,426 3.7% 2,699 47.1% Health Technologists and Technicians (29-2000) High 399 1.3% 561 1.6% 162 40.6% 15.3% 4.5% 2,666 1.3% 3,656 1.6% 990 37.1% Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) Low 771 2.5% 1,967 5.4% 1,196 155.1% 19.7% 6.7% 4,440 2.2% 9,971 4.4% 5,531 124.6% Firefighting, Prevention, & Other Protective Svc Workers Incl. Spvsrs (33-2000) Medium 391 1.3% 595 1.6% 204 52.2% 19.7% 6.5% 2,328 1.1% 3,021 1.3% 693 29.8% Law Enforcement Workers Including Supervisors (33-3000) Medium 85 0.3% 232 0.6% 147 172.9% 13.3% 3.8% 1,249 0.6% 1,743 0.8% 494 39.6% Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (35-0000) Low 2,384 7.8% 2,973 8.2% 589 24.7% 22.2% 7.5% 13,040 6.4% 13,379 5.9% 339 2.6% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (37-0000) Low 2,490 8.2% 2,043 5.7% (447) (18.0%) 23.2% 7.8% 8,665 4.2% 8,811 3.9% 146 1.7% Personal Care and Service Occupations (39-0000) Low 1,498 4.9% 1,045 2.9% (453) (30.2%) 14.7% 4.9% 9,239 4.5% 7,090 3.1% (2,149) (23.3%) Sales and Related Occupations (41-0000) Low 2,515 8.3% 3,094 8.6% 579 23.0% 14.6% 4.4% 20,776 10.2% 21,181 9.3% 405 1.9% Office and Administrative Support Occupations (43-0000) Low 4,886 16.1% 4,247 11.8% (639) (13.1%) 14.6% 4.8% 33,076 16.2% 29,169 12.9% (3,907) (11.8%) Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (45-0000) Low 143 0.5% 259 0.7% 116 81.1% 30.8% 8.3% 624 0.3% 841 0.4% 217 34.8% Construction and Extraction Occupations (47-0000) Medium 2,260 7.4% 2,946 8.2% 686 30.4% 28.7% 9.4% 9,669 4.7% 10,281 4.5% 612 6.3% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (49-0000) Medium 862 2.8% 1,087 3.0% 225 26.1% 19.8% 5.7% 5,329 2.6% 5,483 2.4% 154 2.9% Production Occupations (51-0000) Low 1,848 6.1% 1,727 4.8% (121) (6.5%) 22.1% 7.2% 7,493 3.7% 7,802 3.4% 309 4.1% Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (53-0000) Low 2,324 7.6% 2,957 8.2% 633 27.2% 17.1% 6.0% 11,318 5.5% 17,269 7.6% 5,951 52.6% Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over 30,396 100.0% 36,122 100.0% 5,726 18.8% 204,514 100.0% 226,798 100.0% 22,284 10.9% Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S2401); EPS. [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers. [2] Levels of training by occupations are based on information provided by O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations utilized by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low training level = some on-the-job training and high school-level education; Medium training level = considerable on-the-job training, vocational education, or Associate's degree; High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience.

Study Area
Training
Level [2]
Resident Employment
Composition by Occupation
(2010 - 2018)
Sacramento City
2010 2018 Change 2018 as % of 2010 2018 Change
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Table A-3
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Occupation (2010 - 2018)
Occupation (SOC)
Management Occupations (11-0000) High
Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) High Computer and Mathematical Occupations (15-0000) High
Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) High Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) High Community and Social Service Occupations (21-0000) High Legal Occupations (23-0000) High
Educational Instruction, and Library Occupations (25-0000) High Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) High Health Diagnosing & Treating Pract. and Other Tech. Occ. (29-1000) High Health Technologists and Technicians (29-2000) High
Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) Low
Firefighting, Prevention, & Other Protective Svc Workers Incl. Spvsrs (33-2000) Medium Law Enforcement Workers Including Supervisors (33-3000) Medium Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (35-0000) Low Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (37-0000) Low Personal Care and Service Occupations (39-0000) Low
Sales and Related Occupations (41-0000) Low
Office and Administrative Support Occupations (43-0000) Low Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (45-0000) Low Construction and Extraction Occupations (47-0000) Medium Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (49-0000) Medium Production Occupations (51-0000) Low
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (53-0000) Low Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers. [2] Levels of training by occupations are based on information provided by O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations utilized by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low training level = some on-the-job training and high school-level education; Medium training level = considerable on-the-job training, vocational education, or Associate's degree; High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience Training
Level [2] Total Share Total Share Total %
60,928 9.7% 63,484 9.3% 2,556 4.2%
38,719 6.2% 44,071 6.4% 5,352 13.8%
22,431 3.6% 29,261 4.3% 6,830 30.4%
13,154 2.1% 13,947 2.0% 793 6.0%

1.0% 7,152 6,229 1.0% 923 14.8%
10,998 1.8% 12,483 1.8% 1,485 13.5%

1.5% 8,645 9,284 1.3% (639) (6.9%)
30,727 4.9% 36,656 5.3% 5,929 19.3%
10,850 1.7% 13,459 2.0% 2,609 24.0%
19,130 3.1% 26,060 3.8% 6,930 36.2%

1.4% 12,346 9,005 1.8% 3,341 37.1%
13,712 2.2% 29,566 4.3% 15,854 115.6%

1.3% 9,138 8,422 1.3% 716 8.5%

1.0% 6,178 6,097 0.9% 81 1.3%
32,882 5.3% 39,438 5.7% 6,556 19.9%
24,225 3.9% 26,319 3.8% 2,094 8.6%
27,122 4.3% 21,538 3.1% (5,584) (20.6%)

11.1% 70,407 10.3% 774 69,633 1.1%
102,468 16.4% 88,793 12.9% (13,675) (13.3%)

0.3% 3,130 1,906 0.5% 1,224 64.2%
33,941 5.4% 31,435 4.6% (2,506) (7.4%)
18,626 3.0% 19,194 2.8% 568 3.0%
22,832 3.6% 23,949 3.5% 1,117 4.9%
32,573 5.2% 49,370 7.2% 16,797 51.6%
625,894 100.0% 686,019 100.0% 60,125 9.6%
occupation
Change
Resident Employment
Composition by Occupation
(2010 - 2018)
Sacramento County
2010 2018
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Table A-4
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Occupation, Subareas (2010 - 2018) Industry (NAICS) [1] Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Management Occupations (11-0000) High 423 18.0% 331 12.7% (92) (21.7%) 137 2.5% 506 6.7% 369 269.3% Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) High 78 3.3% 283 10.9% 205 262.8% 190 3.5% 389 5.2% 199 104.7% Computer and Mathematical Occupations (15-0000) High 61 2.6% 65 2.5% 4 6.6% 106 1.9% 282 3.7% 176 166.0% Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) High 33 1.4% 147 5.6% 114 345.5% 65 1.2% 188 2.5% 123 189.2% Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) High 119 5.1% 23 0.9% (96) (80.7%) 104 1.9% 99 1.3% (5) (4.8%) Community and Social Service Occupations (21-0000) High 62 2.6% - 0.0% (62) (100.0%) 143 2.6% 133 1.8% (10) (7.0%) Legal Occupations (23-0000) High 74 3.1% 84 3.2% 10 13.5% 105 1.9% 79 1.0% (26) (24.8%) Educational Instruction, and Library Occupations (25-0000) High 157 6.7% 407 15.6% 250 159.2% 208 3.8% 540 7.2% 332 159.6% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) High 93 4.0% 191 7.3% 98 105.4% 142 2.6% 264 3.5% 122 85.9% Health Diagnosing & Treating Pract. and Other Tech. Occ. (29-1000) High 196 8.3% 136 5.2% (60) (30.6%) 169 3.1% 369 4.9% 200 118.3% Health Technologists and Technicians (29-2000) High 40 1.7% - 0.0% (40) (100.0%) 87 1.6% 95 1.3% 8 9.2% Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) Low 34 1.4% - 0.0% (34) (100.0%) 106 1.9% 405 5.4% 299 282.1% Firefighting, Prevention, & Other Protective Svc Workers Incl. Spvsrs (33-2000) Medium 23 1.0% - 0.0% (23) (100.0%) 47 0.9% 53 0.7% 6 12.8% Law Enforcement Workers Including Supervisors (33-3000) Medium - 0.0% - 0.0% - - - 0.0% 41 0.5% 41 - Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (35-0000) Low 152 6.5% 129 5.0% (23) (15.1%) 358 6.6% 506 6.7% 148 41.3% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (37-0000) Low - 0.0% 76 2.9% 76 - 462 8.5% 349 4.6% (113) (24.5%) Personal Care and Service Occupations (39-0000) Low 51 2.2% - 0.0% (51) (100.0%) 331 6.1% 230 3.0% (101) (30.5%) Sales and Related Occupations (41-0000) Low 145 6.2% 193 7.4% 48 33.1% 520 9.5% 604 8.0% 84 16.2% Office and Administrative Support Occupations (43-0000) Low 394 16.7% 219 8.4% (175) (44.4%) 1,050 19.2% 979 13.0% (71) (6.8%) Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (45-0000) Low 9 0.4% - 0.0% (9) (100.0%) - 0.0% 26 0.3% 26 - Construction and Extraction Occupations (47-0000) Medium 73 3.1% 142 5.5% 69 94.5% 432 7.9% 519 6.9% 87 20.1% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (49-0000) Medium 61 2.6% 51 2.0% (10) (16.4%) 97 1.8% 194 2.6% 97 100.0% Production Occupations (51-0000) Low 42 1.8% 24 0.9% (18) (42.9%) 193 3.5% 171 2.3% (22) (11.4%) Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (53-0000) Low 34 1.4% 104 4.0% 70 205.9% 409 7.5% 524 6.9% 115 28.1% Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over 2,354 100.0% 2,605 100.0% 251 10.7% 5,461 100.0% 7,545 100.0% 2,084 38.2% Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S2401); EPS. [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers. [2] Levels of training by occupations are based on information provided by O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations utilized by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low training level = some on-the-job training and high school-level education; Medium training level = considerable on-the-job training, vocational education, or Associate's degree; High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience.

Resident Employment
Composition by Occupation,
Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Elmhurst Oak Park
Training
Level [2]
2010 2018 Change 2010 2018 Change
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Table A-4
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Employed Residents by Occupation, Subareas (2010 - 2018) Industry (NAICS) [1]
Management Occupations (11-0000) High
Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) High Computer and Mathematical Occupations (15-0000) High
Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) High Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) High Community and Social Service Occupations (21-0000) High Legal Occupations (23-0000) High
Educational Instruction, and Library Occupations (25-0000) High Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) High Health Diagnosing & Treating Pract. and Other Tech. Occ. (29-1000) High Health Technologists and Technicians (29-2000) High
Healthcare Support Occupations (31-0000) Low
Firefighting, Prevention, & Other Protective Svc Workers Incl. Spvsrs (33-2000) Medium Law Enforcement Workers Including Supervisors (33-3000) Medium Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (35-0000) Low Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (37-0000) Low Personal Care and Service Occupations (39-0000) Low
Sales and Related Occupations (41-0000) Low
Office and Administrative Support Occupations (43-0000) Low Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations (45-0000) Low Construction and Extraction Occupations (47-0000) Medium Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (49-0000) Medium Production Occupations (51-0000) Low
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (53-0000) Low Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and 2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables (TableID: S240 [1] Employment by industry includes jobs which pay wages or salaries, regardless of hours worked, and does not include those who are self-employed, working unpaid for a family business or farm, or private or household workers. [2] Levels of training by occupations are based on information provided by O*NET, a source on key characteristics of workers and occupations utilized by US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Low training level = some on-the-job training and high school-level education; Medium training level = considerable on-the-job training, vocational education, or Associate's degree; High training level = four-year degree or above plus work experience.

Training
Level [2] Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % 72 3.2% 78 3.0% 6 8.3% 559 7.5% 850 9.1% 291 52.1%
79 3.5% 97 3.7% 18 22.8% 554 7.5% 456 4.9% (98) (17.7%) 8 0.4% 32 1.2% 24 300.0% 292 3.9% 256 2.7% (36) (12.3%) - 0.0% 21 0.8% 21 - 43 0.6% 177 1.9% 134 311.6%
- 0.0% 23 0.9% 23 - 131 1.8% 152 1.6% 21 16.0%
21 0.9% 75 2.9% 54 257.1% 245 3.3% 273 2.9% 28 11.4%
34 1.5% - 0.0% (34) (100.0%) 54 0.7% 101 1.1% 47 87.0%
36 1.6% 61 2.3% 25 69.4% 402 5.4% 555 5.9% 153 38.1%
12 0.5% 51 1.9% 39 325.0% 136 1.8% 189 2.0% 53 39.0%
21 0.9% 10 0.4% (11) (52.4%) 182 2.5% 423 4.5% 241 132.4% 12 0.5% 4 0.2% (8) (66.7%) 168 2.3% 201 2.1% 33 19.6%
111 4.9% 215 8.2% 104 93.7% 153 2.1% 513 5.5% 360 235.3% 9 0.4% 28 1.1% 19 211.1% 83 1.1% 256 2.7% 173 208.4%
4 0.2% - 0.0% (4) (100.0%) 63 0.8% 86 0.9% 23 36.5%
127 5.6% 171 6.5% 44 34.6% 475 6.4% 739 7.9% 264 55.6%
417 18.5% 278 10.6% (139) (33.3%) 445 6.0% 347 3.7% (98) (22.0%) 172 7.7% 44 1.7% (128) (74.4%) 227 3.1% 166 1.8% (61) (26.9%) 151 6.7% 137 5.2% (14) (9.3%) 580 7.8% 873 9.3% 293 50.5% 288 12.8% 333 12.7% 45 15.6% 1,414 19.0% 1,103 11.8% (311) (22.0%) - 0.0% 66 2.5% 66 - 10 0.1% - 0.0% (10) (100.0%)
237 10.5% 334 12.7% 97 40.9% 402 5.4% 713 7.6% 311 77.4% 88 3.9% 129 4.9% 41 46.6% 96 1.3% 106 1.1% 10 10.4%
211 9.4% 177 6.7% (34) (16.1%) 192 2.6% 274 2.9% 82 42.7% 138 6.1% 264 10.0% 126 91.3% 517 7.0% 571 6.1% 54 10.4% 2,248 100.0% 2,628 100.0% 380 16.9% 7,423 100.0% 9,380 100.0% 1,957 26.4% Resident Employment
Composition by Occupation,
Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Fruitridge Pocket Tahoe & Colonial
2010 2018 Change 2010 2018 Change
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Training
Level [2] Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % 147 2.4% 198 3.0% 51 34.7% 336 4.9% 161 2.2% (175) (52.1%) 261 4.3% 209 3.2% (52) (19.9%) 281 4.1% 247 3.3% (34) (12.1%) 56 0.9% 14 0.2% (42) (75.0%) 62 0.9% 199 2.7% 137 221.0% - 0.0% 65 1.0% 65 - 40 0.6% 55 0.7% 15 37.5%
- 0.0% - 0.0% - - - 0.0% 7 0.1% 7 -
87 1.4% 47 0.7% (40) (46.0%) 37 0.5% 114 1.5% 77 208.1% 55 0.9% - 0.0% (55) (100.0%) 16 0.2% 12 0.2% (4) (25.0%) 254 4.2% 118 1.8% (136) (53.5%) 217 3.1% 218 2.9% 1 0.5% 8 0.1% 138 2.1% 130 1625.0% 40 0.6% 42 0.6% 2 5.0%
45 0.7% 53 0.8% 8 17.8% 52 0.8% 96 1.3% 44 84.6%
45 0.7% 108 1.7% 63 140.0% 47 0.7% 153 2.1% 106 225.5%
167 2.8% 381 5.8% 214 128.1% 200 2.9% 453 6.1% 253 126.5% 87 1.4% 102 1.6% 15 17.2% 142 2.1% 156 2.1% 14 9.9%
18 0.3% 11 0.2% (7) (38.9%) - 0.0% 94 1.3% 94 -
501 8.3% 688 10.5% 187 37.3% 771 11.2% 740 10.0% (31) (4.0%) 566 9.4% 498 7.6% (68) (12.0%) 600 8.7% 495 6.7% (105) (17.5%) 361 6.0% 180 2.8% (181) (50.1%) 356 5.2% 425 5.7% 69 19.4% 471 7.8% 659 10.1% 188 39.9% 648 9.4% 628 8.5% (20) (3.1%) 773 12.9% 655 10.0% (118) (15.3%) 967 14.0% 958 12.9% (9) (0.9%) 52 0.9% 94 1.4% 42 80.8% 72 1.0% 73 1.0% 1 1.4%
512 8.5% 812 12.4% 300 58.6% 604 8.7% 426 5.7% (178) (29.5%) 190 3.2% 240 3.7% 50 26.3% 330 4.8% 367 4.9% 37 11.2%
760 12.7% 504 7.7% (256) (33.7%) 450 6.5% 577 7.8% 127 28.2% 589 9.8% 760 11.6% 171 29.0% 637 9.2% 734 9.9% 97 15.2% 6,005 100.0% 6,534 100.0% 529 8.8% 6,905 100.0% 7,430 100.0% 525 7.6% occupation sa
Resident Employment
Composition by Occupation,
Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Lemon Hill South of Fruitridge
2010 2018 Change 2010 2018 Change
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Table A-5
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Jobs by Industry (2010 - 2018)
Item Total
% of
Total Total
% of
Total Total % City County Total
% of
Total Total
% of
Total Total %
Employment By Industry (NAICS)
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) 29 0.1% 17 0.1% (12) (41.4%) 8.8% 0.7% 160 0.1% 194 0.1% 34 21.3% Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 0.0% 0.0% 11 0.0% 18 0.0% 7 63.6% Utilities (22) 2,382 8.2% 3,459 11.1% 1,077 45.2% 65.5% 54.0% 3,807 1.3% 5,284 1.7% 1,477 38.8% Construction (23) 447 1.5% 527 1.7% 80 17.9% 4.0% 1.4% 8,199 2.9% 13,054 4.1% 4,855 59.2% Manufacturing (31-33) 779 2.7% 583 1.9% (196) (25.2%) 6.5% 2.7% 8,027 2.8% 9,003 2.8% 976 12.2% Wholesale Trade (42) 260 0.9% 163 0.5% (97) (37.3%) 1.7% 0.9% 7,406 2.6% 9,719 3.1% 2,313 31.2% Retail Trade (44-45) 1,757 6.0% 2,040 6.5% 283 16.1% 10.6% 3.3% 16,759 5.9% 19,214 6.0% 2,455 14.6% Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 380 1.3% 331 1.1% (49) (12.9%) 4.4% 1.9% 7,141 2.5% 7,597 2.4% 456 6.4% Information (51) 389 1.3% 232 0.7% (157) (40.4%) 5.8% 2.4% 5,283 1.8% 4,024 1.3% (1,259) (23.8%) Finance and Insurance (52) 174 0.6% 116 0.4% (58) (33.3%) 1.8% 0.4% 5,834 2.0% 6,481 2.0% 647 11.1% Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53) 108 0.4% 163 0.5% 55 50.9% 4.5% 1.7% 3,180 1.1% 3,617 1.1% 437 13.7% Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54) 250 0.9% 162 0.5% (88) (35.2%) 0.9% 0.4% 16,333 5.7% 18,451 5.8% 2,118 13.0% Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55) 9 0.0% 11 0.0% 2 22.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2,239 0.8% 3,084 1.0% 845 37.7% Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56) 887 3.0% 936 3.0% 49 5.5% 3.8% 1.9% 13,899 4.9% 24,455 7.7% 10,556 75.9% Educational Services (61) 4,313 14.8% 4,097 13.1% (216) (5.0%) 20.4% 7.7% 17,289 6.0% 20,099 6.3% 2,810 16.3% Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 9,201 31.5% 13,536 43.3% 4,335 47.1% 24.7% 11.9% 34,293 12.0% 54,866 17.2% 20,573 60.0% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71) 155 0.5% 245 0.8% 90 58.1% 5.2% 2.5% 3,994 1.4% 4,706 1.5% 712 17.8% Accommodation and Food Services (72) 1,101 3.8% 1,946 6.2% 845 76.7% 7.7% 3.4% 18,869 6.6% 25,197 7.9% 6,328 33.5% Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81) 2,479 8.5% 438 1.4% (2,041) (82.3%) 4.1% 2.0% 17,076 6.0% 10,809 3.4% (6,267) (36.7%) Administrative Government (9A & 9B) 4,111 14.1% 2,267 7.2% (1,844) (44.9%) 2.9% 2.2% 96,111 33.6% 78,209 24.6% (17,902) (18.6%) Total Employment 29,211 100.0% 31,269 100.0% 2,058 7.0% 9.8% 285,910 100.0% 318,081 100.0% 32,171 11.3% Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2010, 2018; EPS.

Change
City of Sacramento
2010 2018 Change 2018 as % of 2010 2018
Area Jobs by Industry (2010 - 2018)
Study Area
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Table A-5
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Jobs by Industry (2010 - 2018)
Item
Employment By Industry (NAICS)
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11)
Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21)
Utilities (22)
Construction (23)
Manufacturing (31-33)
Wholesale Trade (42)
Retail Trade (44-45)
Transportation and Warehousing (48-49)
Information (51)
Finance and Insurance (52)
Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53)
Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54)
Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55)
Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56)
Educational Services (61)
Health Care and Social Assistance (62)
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71)
Accommodation and Food Services (72)
Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81)
Administrative Government (9A & 9B)
Total Employment
Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2010, 2018; EPS.

Total
% of
Total Total
% of
Total Total %
2,079 0.4% 2,446 0.4% 367 17.7%
192 0.0% 209 0.0% 17 8.9%
5,047 0.9% 6,402 0.9% 1,355 26.8%
23,293 4.0% 38,708 5.7% 15,415 66.2%
23,004 3.9% 21,203 3.1% (1,801) (7.8%)
15,648 2.7% 18,978 2.8% 3,330 21.3%
52,597 9.0% 61,566 9.1% 8,969 17.1%
12,245 2.1% 17,538 2.6% 5,293 43.2%
11,265 1.9% 9,488 1.4% (1,777) (15.8%)
25,280 4.3% 25,889 3.8% 609 2.4%
7,906 1.4% 9,677 1.4% 1,771 22.4%
37,310 6.4% 44,300 6.6% 6,990 18.7%
9,338 1.6% 10,157 1.5% 819 8.8%
34,808 6.0% 50,336 7.5% 15,528 44.6%
50,730 8.7% 52,988 7.9% 2,258 4.5%
69,149 11.9% 114,127 16.9% 44,978 65.0%
8,811 1.5% 9,860 1.5% 1,049 11.9%
42,014 7.2% 57,182 8.5% 15,168 36.1%
36,121 6.2% 22,271 3.3% (13,850) (38.3%)
116,579 20.0% 100,925 15.0% (15,654) (13.4%)
583,416 100.0% 674,250 100.0% 90,834 15.6%
jobs
2010 2018 Change
Sacramento County
Area Jobs by Industry (2010 - 2018)
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Table A-6
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Jobs by Industry, Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Industry (NAICS) [1] Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % Employment By Industry (NAICS)
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 29 0.9% 16 0.5% (13) (44.8%) Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - Utilities (22) 2,362 14.6% 3,459 19.9% 1,097 46.4% 1 0.0% 0 0.0% (1) (100.0%) Construction (23) 57 0.4% 195 1.1% 138 242.1% 85 2.6% 35 1.2% (50) (58.8%) Manufacturing (31-33) 118 0.7% 42 0.2% (76) (64.4%) 405 12.2% 298 10.1% (107) (26.4%) Wholesale Trade (42) 90 0.6% 3 0.0% (87) (96.7%) 48 1.4% 38 1.3% (10) (20.8%) Retail Trade (44-45) 144 0.9% 177 1.0% 33 22.9% 183 5.5% 290 9.8% 107 58.5% Transportation and Warehousing (48-49) 260 1.6% 196 1.1% (64) (24.6%) 8 0.2% 8 0.3% 0 0.0% Information (51) 171 1.1% 39 0.2% (132) (77.2%) 5 0.2% 8 0.3% 3 60.0% Finance and Insurance (52) 31 0.2% 0 0.0% (31) (100.0%) 40 1.2% 48 1.6% 8 20.0% Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53) 14 0.1% 18 0.1% 4 28.6% 14 0.4% 39 1.3% 25 178.6% Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54) 79 0.5% 10 0.1% (69) (87.3%) 49 1.5% 56 1.9% 7 14.3% Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55) 4 0.0% 0 0.0% (4) (100.0%) 1 0.0% 0 0.0% (1) (100.0%) Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56) 183 1.1% 180 1.0% (3) (1.6%) 141 4.2% 94 3.2% (47) (33.3%) Educational Services (61) 535 3.3% 601 3.5% 66 12.3% 689 20.8% 494 16.7% (195) (28.3%) Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 7,897 49.0% 9,992 57.5% 2,095 26.5% 540 16.3% 1,152 39.0% 612 113.3% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71) 1 0.0% 3 0.0% 2 200.0% 54 1.6% 0 0.0% (54) (100.0%) Accommodation and Food Services (72) 273 1.7% 349 2.0% 76 27.8% 84 2.5% 268 9.1% 184 219.0% Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81) 375 2.3% 16 0.1% (359) (95.7%) 460 13.9% 108 3.7% (352) (76.5%) Administrative Government (9A & 9B) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 - Total Employment 16,124 100.0% 17,368 100.0% 1,244 7.7% 3,320 100.0% 2,952 100.0% (368) (11.1%) Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2010, 2018; EPS.

Area Jobs by Industry, Subareas
(2010 - 2018)
Change 2010 2018 Change
Elmhurst Oak Park
2010 2018
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Table A-6
Stockton Boulevard Specific Plan
Social and Economic Context
Jobs by Industry, Subareas (2010 - 2018)
Industry (NAICS) [1]
Employment By Industry (NAICS)
Ag., Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (11)
Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extr. (21)
Utilities (22)
Construction (23)
Manufacturing (31-33)
Wholesale Trade (42)
Retail Trade (44-45)
Transportation and Warehousing (48-49)
Information (51)
Finance and Insurance (52)
Real Estate and Rental Leasing (53)
Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Services (54)
Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises (55)
Admin., Support & Waste Mgmt Svcs (56)
Educational Services (61)
Health Care and Social Assistance (62)
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (71)
Accommodation and Food Services (72)
Other Services (except Public Admin.) (81)
Administrative Government (9A & 9B)
Total Employment
Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2010, 2018; EPS.

Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 1 0.0% 1 -
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -
11 0.9% 0 0.0% (11) (100.0%) 3 0.1% 0 0.0% (3) (100.0%) 6 0.5% 17 1.2% 11 183.3% 229 9.0% 161 5.9% (68) (29.7%) 19 1.5% 15 1.1% (4) (21.1%) 223 8.7% 221 8.1% (2) (0.9%) 10 0.8% 3 0.2% (7) (70.0%) 66 2.6% 90 3.3% 24 36.4%
359 27.7% 299 21.3% (60) (16.7%) 144 5.6% 225 8.3% 81 56.3% 2 0.2% 0 0.0% (2) (100.0%) 60 2.3% 77 2.8% 17 28.3%
161 12.4% 167 11.9% 6 3.7% 39 1.5% 18 0.7% (21) (53.8%) 8 0.6% 18 1.3% 10 125.0% 16 0.6% 12 0.4% (4) (25.0%)
7 0.5% 19 1.4% 12 171.4% 14 0.5% 29 1.1% 15 107.1%
20 1.5% 0 0.0% (20) (100.0%) 73 2.9% 69 2.5% (4) (5.5%) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -3 0.1% 1 0.0% (2) (66.7%)
22 1.7% 11 0.8% (11) (50.0%) 360 14.1% 534 19.6% 174 48.3% 195 15.1% 152 10.8% (43) (22.1%) 448 17.5% 239 8.8% (209) (46.7%) 60 4.6% 386 27.5% 326 543.3% 386 15.1% 572 21.0% 186 48.2% 0 0.0% 1 0.1% 1 -0 0.0% 2 0.1% 2 -
175 13.5% 271 19.3% 96 54.9% 134 5.2% 266 9.8% 132 98.5% 227 17.5% 47 3.3% (180) (79.3%) 321 12.6% 47 1.7% (274) (85.4%) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -
1,294 100.0% 1,406 100.0% 112 8.7% 2,555 100.0% 2,720 100.0% 165 6.5% Area Jobs by Industry, Subareas
(2010 - 2018)
2010 2018 2018 Change
Fruitridge Pocket Tahoe Park
Change 2010
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Total Share Total Share Total % Total Share Total Share Total % 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -
2 0.1% 0 0.0% (2) (100.0%) 3 0.1% 0 0.0% (3) (100.0%)
44 1.2% 90 2.2% 46 104.5% 26 1.1% 29 1.1% 3 11.5%
4 0.1% 0 0.0% (4) (100.0%) 10 0.4% 7 0.3% (3) (30.0%)
22 0.6% 17 0.4% (5) (22.7%) 24 1.0% 12 0.4% (12) (50.0%) 403 11.2% 552 13.3% 149 37.0% 524 22.5% 497 18.6% (27) (5.2%) 39 1.1% 41 1.0% 2 5.1% 11 0.5% 9 0.3% (2) (18.2%)
9 0.3% 0 0.0% (9) (100.0%) 4 0.2% 0 0.0% (4) (100.0%)
34 0.9% 13 0.3% (21) (61.8%) 45 1.9% 25 0.9% (20) (44.4%) 20 0.6% 10 0.2% (10) (50.0%) 39 1.7% 48 1.8% 9 23.1%
17 0.5% 2 0.0% (15) (88.2%) 12 0.5% 25 0.9% 13 108.3%
0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -1 0.0% 10 0.4% 9 900.0%
123 3.4% 33 0.8% (90) (73.2%) 58 2.5% 84 3.1% 26 44.8%
2,137 59.5% 2,219 53.4% 82 3.8% 309 13.3% 392 14.7% 83 26.9% 101 2.8% 647 15.6% 546 540.6% 217 9.3% 787 29.5% 570 262.7% 100 2.8% 235 5.7% 135 135.0% 0 0.0% 4 0.1% 4 -
23 0.6% 164 3.9% 141 613.0% 412 17.7% 628 23.5% 216 52.4% 482 13.4% 106 2.6% (376) (78.0%) 614 26.4% 114 4.3% (500) (81.4%) 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 -
3,592 100.0% 4,152 100.0% 560 15.6% 2,326 100.0% 2,671 100.0% 345 14.8% jobs sa
Area Jobs by Industry, Subareas
(2010 - 2018)
2010 2018 Change 2010 2018
Lemon Hill South of Fruitridge
Change
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Sacramento City CouncilOctober 22, 2024

Sacramento City Council
October 22, 2024