2025-01126 SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL Airport South Industrial Annexation (P21-017) (Noticed on 11072025; Published 11072025; Passed for Publication 10212025; Published 10242025) [Updated 11/18/2025 @4:41 PM] - Part 1A — Sacramento City Council, November 18, 2025 (part 5 of 7)

Safca O & M Assessment #1 Actual $391.20
Reclamation District #1000 M Actual $218.32
Safca Natomas Basin Dist Actual $129.84
Csa 1 Lights Sacunincorp Zone Actual $2.56
Total Of Special Assessments Actual $2,319.18

CHARACTERISTICS
Lot Frontage Heat Type
Lot Depth Heat Fuel Type
Lot Acres 31.64 Patio Type
Lot Sq Ft 1,378,238 Parking Spaces
Style Garage Type
Gross Area Garage Capacity
Building Sq Ft Garage Sq Ft
Above Gnd Sq Ft Roof Material
Ground Floor Area Construction
2nd Floor Area Exterior
Basement Sq. Ft. Floor Cover
Stories Foundation
Condition Pool
Quality Pool Size
Total Units Year Built
Total Rooms Effective Year Built
Bedrooms Other Impvs
Total Baths Other Rooms
Full Baths Equipment
Half Baths Condo Amenities
Fireplace Building Class
Fireplace Count Building Type
Water County Use Code Vacant-Agricultural
Sewer Universal Land Use Agricultural Land
Cooling Type # of Buildings

SELL SCORE
Rating Value As Of 2024-10-06 04:32:40
Sell Score

LISTING INFORMATION
Listing Number 17041396 Selling Date
Status Expired Selling Price
Status Change Date 12/31/2017 Listing Agent Name
Listing Date 07/01/2017 Listing Office Name SHERWOOD REALTY Listing Price $900,750 Selling Broker Name
Original Listing Price $949,200 Selling Agent Name
Pending Date Listing Cancellation Date
Listing Number
Status
Listing Date
Listing Price
Original Listing Price
Selling Date
Selling Price
Listing Expiration Date
Listing Cancellation Date

LAST MARKET SALE & SALES HISTORY
Recording Date 05/20/2019 Sale Type Full
Settle Date 05/14/2019 Deed Type Grant Deed
Sale Price $909,500 Owner Name Upper Westside LLC
Price Per Sq Ft Owner Name 2
Multi/Split Sale Multi Seller Name Bastiao Kathryn A Trust Document Number 1905200311
Title Company Stewart Title/Sacramento
Recording Date 05/20/2019 04/03/2019 08/09/2018 12/08/2017 08/30/2016 Property Details Courtesy of Patrick Soluri, MetroList Services, Inc Generated on: 10/11/24 The data within this report is compiled by CoreLogic from public and private sources. The data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed. The accuracy of the data contained herein can be independently verified by the recipient of this report with the applicable county or municipality.

Page 2 ends

Settle Date 05/14/2019 03/21/2019 07/24/2018 10/31/2017 08/16/2016 Sale Price $909,500
Nominal Y Y Y Y
Multi/Split Sale Type Multi Multi Multiple Multiple Multiple Owner Name Upper Westside LLC Bastiao Kathryn A Trus
t
Bastiao Kathryn A Trus
t
Reynoso Cynthia A Tru
st
Bastiao Kathryn A
Seller Name Bastiao Kathryn A Trus
t
Enos Ray Bastiao Kathryn A Reynoso Cynthia A Bastiao Elvira J 1997 Tr ust
Document Number 1905200311 1904030578 1808091393 1712080179 160830-1661 Deed Type Grant Deed Quit Claim Deed Grant Deed Grant Deed Correction Deed Title Company Stewart Title/Sacramen
to
Stewart Title/Sacramen
to
Attorney Only Attorney Only Attorney Only

Recording Date 08/30/2016 07/13/2016 07/13/2016
Settle Date 08/11/2016 06/15/2016 06/15/2016
Sale Price
Nominal Y Y Y
Multi/Split Sale Type Multiple Multiple Multiple
Owner Name Bastiao Kathryn A Bastiao Kathryn A Bastiao Kathryn A Seller Name Bastiao Manuel J Trust Bastiao Manuel J Trust Bastiao E J 1997 Trust Document Number 160830-1660 160713-804 160713-798
Deed Type Correction Deed Trustee Deed Trustee Deed
Title Company Attorney Only Attorney Only Attorney Only

MORTGAGE HISTORY
Mortgage Date
Mortgage Amount
Mortgage Lender
Borrower Name
Borrower Name 2
Mortgage Purpose
Mortgage Type
Interest Rate Type
Mortgage Int Rate
Mortgage Term
Mortgage Term Code

FORECLOSURE HISTORY
Document Type
Default Date
Foreclosure Filing Date
Recording Date
Document Number
Book Number
Page Number
Default Amount
Final Judgment Amount
Original Doc Date
Original Document Number
Original Book Page
Lien Type
Property Details Courtesy of Patrick Soluri, MetroList Services, Inc Generated on: 10/11/24 The data within this report is compiled by CoreLogic from public and private sources. The data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed. The accuracy of the data contained herein can be independently verified by the recipient of this report with the applicable county or municipality.

Page 3 ends

PROPERTY MAP
*Lot Dimensions are Estimated
Property Details Courtesy of Patrick Soluri, MetroList Services, Inc Generated on: 10/11/24 The data within this report is compiled by CoreLogic from public and private sources. The data is deemed reliable, but is not guaranteed. The accuracy of the data contained herein can be independently verified by the recipient of this report with the applicable county or municipality.

Page 4 ends

EXHIBIT 6

EXHIBIT 7
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UPPER WESTSIDE, LLC
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Limited Liability Company - CA
401 WATT AVE STE 4
SACRAMENTO, CA 95864
401 WATT AVE STE 4
SACRAMENTO,CA95864
05/31/2022
Individual

GARY G PERRY
401 WATT AVE STE 4
SACRAMENTO, CA 95864
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UPPER WESTSIDE, LLC
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UPPER WESTSIDE, LLC
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401 WATT AVE STE 4
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401 WATT AVE STE 4
SACRAMENTO,CA95864
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EXHIBIT 8
Planning and
Environmental
Review
Natomas Joint Vision Brief History
Brief Project History and Overview of the Natomas Joint Vision Competition to Collaboration
View Miscellaneous Background Information - Prepared 1-13-2011 City - County Memorandum of Understanding
Grand Park Specific Plan 
Upper Westside Specific Plan 
Proactively guide future urban growth for more efficient use of the land, while securing permanent preservation of open space/farmland at a mitigation ratio of at least one-to- one.

Home > Plans and Projects in Progress
The Natomas Joint Vision project has been withdrawn and individual landowners have moved forward with their own projects:

In the late 1990s Sacramento City and County were both pursuing projects that would urbanize a substantial portion of the Natomas Basin. Both jurisdictions decided, however, that it would be mutually beneficial to plan the area cooperatively. Starting in 2001, City and County staff met to discuss a process for planning the unincorporated Natomas area. This gave rise to the City/County Joint Vision for Natomas. The two jurisdictions coordinated and along with input from stakeholders created the basic principles for development in the area.

On December 10, 2002 the County Board of Supervisors and the Sacramento City Council each approved a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that outlined a joint vision for land use and revenue sharing principles for Natomas. The MOU recognized the City as the agent of development and the County as the agent of permanent open space, habitat, and farmland/ranchland preservation. View
City-County MOU
The MOU defined a set of guiding principles for the implementation of the following goals:

Project Phases

1. 2.

3. 4.

5. Important Links
Improve future air quality through efficient land use, which reduces automobile travel by accommodating future growth according to Smart Growth principles adopted by City Council (Smart Growth Principles/Resolution).

Provide for revenue sharing between the City and County to prevent competition for tax revenues and promote balanced regional planning.

Protect future airport operations. 
Natomas Owners Group: A private website provided by land owners in the Natomas area who are funding and participating in the Natomas Joint Vision process. This link is provided for public convenience and is neither maintained nor endorsed by Sacramento County. Note: The website is under construction.

Sacramento County Board of Supervisors General Website : Includes information on how to contact Board members

Local Agency Formation Commission General Website : Contains basic information on the annexation process and the function of LAFCo

The 2002 City-County Memorandum of Understanding and the Open Space Program (complete)
The Broad Visioning Process (complete)
An inclusive public stakeholder process to prepare (in progress) a. A conservation strategy amd initiate a new or amended habitat conservation plan (HCP)
b. CEQA documents
c. City and County General Plan amendments
d. A specific/master plan
e. Amendment of City's Sphere of Influence or County's Urban Services Boundary Annexation or amendment to County's Urban Policy Area and completion of a new or amended HCP
Implementation of development projects
Early Project History of Natomas Joint Vision
City - County Joint Planning Process -- 2008 - April 2009 --Broad Visioning Process
2006 - 2008 -- Open Space Program
Create a special and unique place
Assure quality and consistency in development projects Capitalize on existing assets - airports, freeways, rivers, farmland Locate and employ exemplary cases of urban design complementing (an enhancing) habitat preservation

Through the Broad Visioning Process, a unique image will be crafted that accentuates the Joint Vision Area’s distinctive features and geographic location to balance development and growth with conservation and livability. The intent is to move away from the status quo of planning for individual projects since analytic processes focused just on proposed projects are unlikely to reveal the full economic impacts or environmental costs of development.

The goals of the Broad Visioning Process are to:

The Broad Visioning process represents Phase 2 of the total five phases of the Natomas Joint Vision. City and County staff and representatives of Natomas landowners will lead the process and coordinate the necessary workshops. Technical consultants will be contracted to assist in conducting public outreach meetings, drafting conceptual land use diagrams, and developing an agriculture/open space/habitat strategy with a preliminary biological assessment.

The Open Space Program (OSP) was designed to identify mitigation and funding mechanisms to help guide the implementation of open space goals and policies adopted by the City and County in the December 2002 Natomas Joint Vision MOU. The OSP evaluated the habitat-open space-agricultural values of the Natomas Joint Vision area to establish objectivity for decision making. The City and County shared the cost of the OSP.

Four public workshops for the OSP were completed between June 2006 and February 2008. The Final Draft Open Space Program Report was presented to the Board of Supervisors on January 20, 2008 and the City Council on February 12, 2008. The policies and maps in the Report were not adopted by either the County Board of Supervisors or City Council. The Report was received and filed.

The OSP was initially requested by the City Council and County Board of Supervisors to delineate areas best suited for open space preservation and identify associated implementation strategies. Recognizing the complexities of the Joint Vision Area, City and County staff have Municipal Services Review, Sphere of Influence Amendment and Environmental Impact Report
Past Workshops, Hearing and Documents of Natomas Joint Vision Broad Visioning Process 2008-2009
since been directed to commence with a Broad Visioning Process to study the Area in a more comprehensive and inclusive manner.

The City was preparing a Municipal Services Review to provide a public service analysis for their proposed Sphere of Influence Amendment (SOI). This information combined with information from the Open Space Program will provide a framework for project description and any alternatives in the Sphere of Influence Environmental Impact Report.

The Environmental Impact Report (EIR) will assess the impacts of actions on biological resources related to the existing Natomas Basin Habitat Conservation Plan (NBHCP) and the effects of additional development for the development/preservation balance set out in the NBHCP. The EIR will be prepared for use by the City, County, and LAFCo in their evaluation of the effects of the City’s SOI and necessary text and map amendments to both the City and County General Plans. The EIR was being prepared jointly by LAFCo and the City as co-lead agencies with the County participating as a responsible agency.

The draft Municipal Services Review project framework report and Environmental Impact Report have been delayed pending the development of a more precise project description.

Workshop #1 - November 12, 2008
Workshop #2 - January 28, 2009
Workshop #3 - March 26, 2009
Workshop #4 Series - Workshops with Planning Commissions, Council and Board
Open Space Program 2006-2008
Workshop #1


Broad Visioning Workshop 2 Agenda
Broad Visioning Workshop 2 Presentation
Broad Visioning Workshop 2 Matrix










First Workshop Presentation
Public Comments and Questions
Joint Vision Flow Chart
Broad Visioning Workshop 1 Presentation
Natomas Joint Visioning Backgro und Report
Broad Visioning Workshop 3 Agenda
Broad Visioning Workshop 3 Presentation
Broad Visioning Workshop 4 Series Notice
Revised Background Report - April 2009
April 9, 2009, 5:30 p.m. - City Planning Commission
April 13, 2009, 5:30 p.m. - County Planning Commission
April 14, 2009, 6 p.m. - City Council
April 22, 2009, 2 p.m. - County Board of Supervisors
Staff report to County Board of Supervisors
Presentation to County Board of Supervisors
Workshop #2
Workshop #3
Workshop #4
Natomas Vision Plan - Board Initiation
Special Planning Area Proceedings Initiation
Related Amendment to the Sacramento County General Plan Second Workshop Introduction
Second Workshop Presentation
Third Workshop Presentation
Fourth W orkshop Presentation
Master Plan Initiation Staff Report (February 7, 2012) Master Plan Area Map
Land Use Policy LU-119 Consistency Analysis 
Staff Report: SPA Proceedings Initiation (January 13,2010) Addendum: SPA Proceedings Initiation 
On February 7, 2012, the Board of Supervisors initiated a Master Plan process, including the initiation of an amendment to the General Plan to move the Urban Services Boundary (USB) and Urban Policy Area (UPA) within the Plan Area with the boundary locations to be determined through the Master Plan process. The initiation process simply allows the planning and environmental processes to begin. Full analyses, including public input opportunities, will follow. Board materials are provided below:

On January 13, 2010 the Board of Supervisors initiated proceedings for a Special Planning Area zone (SPA). The Board materials for the SPA Proceedings Initiation hearing are provided below:

In November 2011, the Board of Supervisors approved the 2030 General Plan which included an overlay for the Plan area. The overlay reads as follows:
“Natomas Joint Vision Area. On December 10, 2002, the Sacramento City Council and Board adopted a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) outlining principles of land use and revenue sharing between the City and County of Sacramento for the Natomas area, setting the stage for what has come to be known as the “Natomas Joint Vision.” The “Natomas Joint Vision Study Area” overlay on the Land Use Diagram indicates the area addressed by this MOU. The cooperative effort addresses land use, economic development, and environmental opportunities Contacts
and challenges in Natomas. The result will be quality development balanced with permanent open space preservation systems. Additionally, SACOG’s Blueprint shows significant development in the Natomas Joint Vision Area. Because of the MOU, the Blueprint and the importance of the Natomas Joint Vision Area to the region, the County anticipates development in portions of the Natomas Basin within the timeframe of the General Plan. Subject to the preparation and certification of the appropriate environmental documentation, this development shall be accomplished either by an expansion of the USB, the City’s Sphere of Influence, or both. See related policy LU-114 and Implementation Measure C in the “Regional and Local Agency Coordination” section of this Element.”
Office of Planning and Environmental Review
Todd Smith, Principal Planner, (916) 874-6918, [email protected] Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCo)
Don Lockhart, Asst. E xecutive Officer, (916) 874-2937, [email protected]

CUSTOMERS PLANS, PROJECTS, PROGRAMS

EXHIBIT 9

COUNTY OF SACRAMENTO

CALIFORNIA
For the Agenda of:

February 26, 2019
Timed: 2:15 PM
To: Board of Supervisors
Through: Navdeep S. Gill, County Executive
From: Leighann Moffitt, Planning Director,
Office of Planning and Environmental Review
Subject: PLNP2018-00284. Initiation of the Upper Westside Specific Plan Process
District(s): Serna

RECOMMENDED ACTION
Adopt the attached Resolution to:

1. Initiate the Upper Westside Specific Plan process pursuant to the Board- adopted Master Plan Procedures and Preparation Guide and County Code

21.14.060. This includes potential future adoption of a Specific Plan and a General Plan Amendment to move the Urban Services Boundary and the Urban Policy Area within the Natomas Joint Vision Area of the Natomas Basin.

2. Approve the proposed Outreach Program with the expectation that it be enhanced to reach a diverse stakeholder group, provide equitable opportunities for input and to ensure transparency of process.

3. Determine that the scope of the Study Area for potential plan boundaries is appropriate, with the understanding that actual plan boundaries may be adjusted based on the results of the future technical studies, outreach and planning as part of the Master Planning process.

4. Direct the Planning Director to assemble and convene a Technical Advisory Committee consistent with the Board-adopted Master Plan Procedures and Preparation Guide and County Code Section 21.14.060 (F).

5. Authorize the Planning Director to sign the Funding Agreement (Attachment 1) between the County of Sacramento and the Owners’ Group.

PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

Page 2 ends

BACKGROUND
Project Location and General Summary
The Upper Westside Project (Project) is located in the unincorporated Sacramento County portion of the Natomas Basin (Attachment 2) and is a new growth Specific Plan area requested pursuant to Sacramento County’s Board-adopted Master Plan Procedures And Preparation Guide (Attachment 3). The Project applicants request initiation of a Master Planning process on approximately 2,000 acres to accommodate approximately 10,000 dwelling units and 5,000,000 square feet of commercial space (Attachment 4).

Initiation of the Master Plan will provide for the technical study of the process for, and feasibility of, allowing urbanization and the associated extension of infrastructure to the Project area. These efforts are substantial in nature and can take several years. The Project applicants envision creating a sustainable, economically beneficial, mixed-use, master-planned community directly adjacent to the existing communities of North Natomas and South Natomas. They seek to capitalize on existing infrastructure and the Project’s proximity to downtown Sacramento and West Sacramento while supporting the substantial public investment that has already occurred in the Natomas Basin.

Natomas Basin Introduction
The Natomas Basin is a low-lying region of approximately 53,000 acres in Sacramento and Sutter counties (Attachment 5). It is generally bounded by the Sacramento River to the west, the American and Sacramento Rivers to the south, the Natomas East Main Drainage Canal to the east and the Cross Canal to the north.

In the late 1800s and early 1900s, the Natomas basin was used for agricultural production on its rich, fertile soils formed by the annual flooding of the Sacramento and American Rivers. Formed in 1911, Reclamation District 1000 (RD1000) began construction of a perimeter levee system for Natomas in 1913 and completed it in 1915. Then RD1000 created a system of canals, ditches and drains to collect both stormwater and agricultural runoff which is pumped out of the Natomas Basin into the Sacramento River.

In the 1950s and 1960s urbanization of the Natomas Basin began, predominantly because of close proximity to downtown Sacramento and construction of the interstate highway system.

Approved and Proposed Developments
The City of Sacramento, Sutter County and Sacramento County have approved land use plans in the Natomas Basin and several new proposals are pending in Sacramento County (Attachment 6). These plans are listed in the Table on the next page.

PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

Page 3 ends

Table 1: Major Approved and Proposed Natomas Basin Developments Name Status Jurisdiction Acres Description/Notes
North
Natomas-
NBHCP
Permitted
Approved in
1994
City of Sac. 8,050 Urban community-
substantially built out.

Sutter Pointe-
NBHCP
Permitted
Approved in
2009
Sutter Co. 7,528 Urban community-
construction not
started.

Greenbriar Approved in
2008
City of Sac. 577 Urban community-
residential focused-
construction not
started.

Sac. Int.

Airport Master
Plan
Approved/
New Update
Pending
Sac Co. ~6,00
0 The Region’s
International Airport
Metro Air
Park- MAPHCP
Permitted
Approved in
1993
Sac. Co. 1,983 Industrial focused Air
Park – some
construction started
Grandpark Pending Sac. Co. 5,689 New Growth Master
Plan for urban
development.

Upper
Westside
Pending Sac. Co. 2,084 New Growth Master
Plan for urban
development.

Paso Verde K-
8 School
Pending Natomas
Unified
School
Dist.
34 New K-8 school in
unincorporated
Sacramento County to
serve existing
development in the
City of Sacramento.

PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

Page 4 ends

Natomas Basin Habitat Conservation Plan
The Natomas Basin Habitat Conservation Plan (NBHCP) provides the State and federal permitting pathway for City of Sacramento development in the Natomas Basin and for Sutter Pointe in Sutter County. Under the NBHCP, 15,517 acres are approved for development. Substantial buildout of the North Natomas area has occurred in the City of Sacramento and no buildout has yet occurred in Sutter County for the Sutter Point area.

Metro Air Park Habitat Conservation Plan
The Metro Air Park Habitat Conservation Plan (MAPHCP) provides the State and federal permitting pathway for the Metro Air Park project. Under the MAPHCP, 1,983 acres are approved for development. Substantial water, sewage and drainage infrastructure has been installed and an Amazon distribution center is constructed and operating. Other new projects are expected to break ground in the near future.

The Natomas Basin Conservancy
The Natomas Basin Conservancy (TNBC) is the Plan Operator for both the NBHCP and MAPHCP. As such, TNBC is responsible for the acquisition, operations and management of the required mitigation lands for both HCPs.

Combined, the NBHCP and MAPHCP must secure a minimum 8,750 acres of land in the basin for mitigation. There is an HCP requirement that at the end of the 50-year permitting period, there be one preserve block of at least 2,500 contiguous acres and that the remaining preserves be in blocks of at least 400 acres and be connected by water. The preserves must be 50% in rice cultivation, 25% in managed marsh habitat and 25% in upland Swainson’s hawk habitat. In addition to the mitigation lands, the HCPs are based on an assumption that in addition to the preserves with in-perpetuity easements, that an additional 15,095 acres of land will remain committed to agriculture in the basin and that 12,193 acres of exempt, already approved/entitled development exists. TNBC annually publishes a map of their acquired and managed lands in the basin (Attachment 7) Past Legal Challenges and Ruling Related to Habitat Conservation Plans Development in the Natomas Basin has been met with challenges from environmental groups due to the presence of numerous threatened, endangered or special status species. Two of the species of greatest concern are the giant garter snake and the Swainson’s hawk. There have been several lawsuits filed over past environmental approvals associated with the NBHCP and the MAPHCP. A final ruling by United States District Judge David F. Levi on September 7, 2005 (Attachment 8) declared the HCPs valid and cleared the way for development. The environmental groups unsuccessfully argued that because Sacramento County was not a signatory to the HCPs that the HCPs were flawed because they relied on land in unincorporated PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

Page 5 ends

Sacramento County for future mitigation. However, with respect to the issues of potential future growth in Sacramento County, Judge Levi ruled the following:

The NBHCP and BiOp [Biological Opinion (BiOp) utilized by the Secretary of the Interior and United States Fish and Wildlife Service] do assume that development in the basin will be limited to the 17,500 acres [15,517 acres under the NBHCP and 1,983 acres from the previously approved MAPHCP to total 17,500 acres cumulatively] in the permit areas and relies on that assumption in concluding that sufficient habitat will remain for the covered species. This assumption is based on the current land use plans of Sacramento County. The NBHCP, BiOp, and EIR/EIS also conclude that because any future development in the Basin not covered by the HCP and ITPs [Incidental Take Permit allowing for “take” of an endangered species] would likely result in injury to listed species, any future development in the Basin would require new federal approvals. Any such approvals would in turn require a new HCP and ITP for the particular project, and could also lead to revision of the existing NBHCP, were the additional development to exceed assumed limits.

Judge Levi went on to say,
The NBHCP anticipates that development by the City and Sutter will be limited to 15,517 acres – 8,050 acres within the City [of Sacramento] and 7,467 acres in Sutter County – and provides that approval of any development beyond this limit – whether by the City and Sutter or by other entities – will trigger reevaluation and possible amendment of the plan, and could result in suspension or revocation of the City and Sutter permits.

With regard to the City/County Natomas Joint Vision, which plaintiffs claimed would fatally undermine the NBHCP, Judge Levi ruled the following:

The Service, and the court, are entitled to assume at this point that future development will not be permitted if sufficient mitigation land is unavailable and the development will result in jeopardy.

The Judge footnoted the above sentence with the following:

The court notes, however, that the Service and those seeking an ITP in the future will face an uphill battle if they attempt to argue that additional development in the Basin beyond 17,500 acres will not result in jeopardy. The NBHCP, BiOp, EIR/EIS, and Findings and Recommendations are all predicated on the
PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

Page 6 ends

assumption that development in the Basin will be limited to 17,500 acres and that the remaining lands will remain in agricultural use.

Staff recognizes that any new development in the Natomas Basin above the 17,500 acres already approved and permitted by the Natomas Basin and Metro Air Park HCPs will require careful coordination and consideration of existing approved developments, their mitigation strategies, and the regional conservation context.

Flooding and Flood Protection
The original Natomas Basin levees were designed to handle the historical “flood of record” which was the 1907 and 1909 floods of the Sacramento River. In 1937, the system accommodated a large flood with only minor problems. In 1955, an even larger flood hit the Central Valley and the Natomas levees held, but minor damage to the levees occurred near the Sacramento/Sutter County line. As a result, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) raised the Natomas Cross Canal and Pleasant Grove Creek Canal levees by two to three feet in anticipation of even larger future events. The system remained in generally the same condition until 1986 when a new “flood of record” occurred causing significant seepage in Natomas levees; however, early emergency response by RD1000 and the USACE prevented the potentially catastrophic failure. As a result of the near failure, the levee system surrounding Natomas was de-certified and further development was halted.

The Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency (SAFCA) was formed in 1989 to address the vulnerability highlighted by the 1986 flood. The City of Sacramento, Sacramento County, Sutter County, American River Flood Control District, Sacramento County Water Agency, Sutter County Water Agency and RD1000 created SAFCA through a Joint Exercise of Powers Agreement to provide the Sacramento region with increased flood protection along the American and Sacramento rivers.

A system of repairs was initiated in the early 1990s on both the Sacramento River and Natomas East Main Drainage Canal. Work along the Sacramento River was completed by the USACE (Sacramento Urban Project) while the work on the Natomas East Main Drainage Canal was done by SAFCA (North Area Local Project). As a result, the levees were re-certified in 1997 and development began again.

In January 1997 a flood similar in size to the 1986 flood struck the area. The improved system held but a number of other levees in California failed.

Levee safety concerns began to emerge and following an analysis of the PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

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Natomas levees, they were again de-certified in 2003, stopping development for a second time.

To address the levee concerns within the Natomas Basin, SAFCA, the State of California, and the USACE have undertaken the Natomas Levee Improvement Program (NLIP) and the Natomas Basin Project (NBP) to enhance flood protection in the Natomas Basin and to bring the area up to a 200-year level of flood protection. According to the latest report from SAFCA (Attachment 9), the Natomas levee improvements will be completed by 2025. It is important to note that the SAFCA analysis is updated annually to determine if improvements are on track and sufficient funding is still available.

These ongoing improvements have resulted in re-mapping much of the Natomas Basin from Special Flood Hazard Area Zone A (a 100-year flood zone where no flood depths have been determined) to Zone A-99 on June 16, 2015. Zone A-99 means that while the levees still do not provide a 100- year level of flood protection, there is a project underway to improve to that level. This does not define the levees as safe; it simply rewards a community for making progress. Construction in Natomas, under Zone A-99, is allowed if the local jurisdiction finds the area to be “reasonably safe from flooding”, per Code of Federal Regulations 44CFR60.3(a)(3).

On May 19, 2015 the Board of Supervisors (Board) approved Resolution 2015-0392 (Attachment 10) making a “reasonably safe from flooding” finding for:
 Rebuilding fire damaged structures and those displaced by the levee projects
 Development and construction on entitled lots
 New entitlements within current zoning
New developments in Sacramento County, including the pending projects in Table 1, are not covered by the existing findings. Each would require either a new finding that they are “reasonably safe from flooding” or the completion of the levee improvements and re-mapping out of the A-99 zone.

Both the NLIP and NBP have required SAFCA to acquire land in the Natomas Basin both for the physical footprint of improvements and for mitigation of environmental impacts associated with the improvements. Current activity in the vicinity of the proposed Project involves the NBP Phase 4B project. At its November and December 2018 Board of Directors meetings, the SAFCA Board of Directors adopted several Resolutions of Necessity commencing land acquisition activities in the area. At the November 15, 2018 meeting, the SAFCA Board of Directors approved Resolution No. 2018-115 authorizing the SAFCA Executive Director to execute an agreement with the Natomas PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

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Basin Conservancy for exchange of real property. Several properties within the proposed Project boundary are identified by SAFCA as lands for potential acquisition, potential borrow sites, and HCP exchange properties (Attachment 11 – Item 9, Figure 3 from 11/15/18 SAFCA Board Report). The SAFCA real estate transactions have not been completed as of the writing of this report.

The Project area contains an internal floodplain, designated as Zone A, which receives water from Placer and Sutter counties by overland flow (Attachment 12). The levee improvements discussed above do not address this internal floodplain.

Natomas Joint Vision Memorandum of Understanding
In 2002 the City of Sacramento and Sacramento County entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) called the Natomas Joint Vision MOU (Attachment 13) that identified the principles for future growth, revenue sharing, and permanent open space preservation in unincorporated Sacramento County’s portion of the Natomas Basin. The principles for future growth addressed the following issues: cooperative land use planning, permanent open space protection, farmland preservation, airport protection, fiscal collaboration, and jurisdictional roles. Under the Natomas Joint Vision, the City of Sacramento was identified as the agent of development and Sacramento County was identified to be the agent of open space. However, in 2005, when the City of Sacramento did not advance any additional Natomas urbanization, Sacramento County, at the request of Natomas landowners, took a more active role in urbanization discussions.

Broad Visioning
In 2007 and 2008 Sacramento County, the City of Sacramento and major landowners had ongoing dialog about a “Broad Visioning Process”. This process included numerous workshops with the Board. On July 23, 2008 the Board provided direction for the “Broad Visioning Process” and directed County staff to begin the preparation of a conceptual land use plan, to work with landowners on a funding agreement, and to engage with biological experts and urban design specialists to implement a work plan. This process resulted in three potential Natomas development sketches (Attachment 14) which were presented at various County Planning Commission and Board meetings, as well as Sacramento City Council meetings. The work continued from 2009 through 2011, but in 2011 the focus shifted to completing the Sacramento County General Plan update. When the General Plan was adopted on November 9, 2011 it contained new growth criteria as well as Natomas-specific policies. Additionally, the Land Use Diagram was amended to include a “Natomas Joint Vision Study Area” overlay (Attachment 15).

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Natomas Joint Vision Area Master Plan
On February 7, 2012 the Board initiated a Master Plan process, called the Natomas Joint Vision Plan, for the entire Natomas Joint Vision Area to be funded by the Natomas Owners’ Group (Natomas Joint Vison Funding Agreement). However, as time passed, landowners within different geographic areas of the Natomas Joint Vision Area differed in their ability to continue funding the effort. On June 30, 2015, the original Natomas Joint Vision Funding Agreement was formally closed-out. The intent was to create two new funding agreements: one to cover general work for the whole Natomas Joint Vision Area and be funded by all interested parties; and the other to be specific to the North Precinct area for a more detailed urbanization study.

The Natomas Joint Vision Plan was heard by the Sacramento County Planning Commission on September 28, 2015 to initiate the environmental review process pursuant to the Board-adopted Master Plan Procedures and Preparation Guide. The project proposal at that time included expansion of the Urban Services Boundary (USB) to include four urban precincts, and expansion of the Urban Policy Area (UPA) boundary to include the North Precinct. However, discussions among the Natomas Joint Vision Plan participating property owners led to controversy over the reimbursement provisions of the then-pending new funding agreements. Subsequently, the North Precinct applicant revised the project application to include urbanization and movement of the USB and UPA for only the North Precinct, as there were no property owners funding the work program from the other precincts. The North Precinct funding agreement was adopted on November 17, 2015, with a retroactive effective date of July 1, 2015. A second funding agreement for planning the broader Natomas Joint Vision Area never went forward. On March 23, 2016 a revised project description was presented to the Board as a workshop prior to initiating environmental review for the North Precinct only.

The proposed Project for the Upper Westside, like the North Precinct (now known as the Grandpark project), is a continuation of the Natomas Joint Vision process, but with a separate owners’ group, funding agreement and Master Planning process. The previous Natomas Joint Vision work effort was funded by participating owners through a funding agreement that provided for reimbursement by subsequent developers. That funding agreement was replaced by the North Precinct funding agreement in 2015. It is unclear at this time whether the previous Natomas Joint Vision work effort provided substantial benefits to the Upper Westside applicant. However, staff acknowledges the potential for the Board to establish a reimbursement fee on a pro rata basis at a future time.

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Sacramento County General Plan
As discussed above, the Sacramento County General Plan land use diagram contains a “Natomas Joint Vision Study Area” overlay. The General Plan states the following with regard to the area:

On December 10, 2002, the Sacramento City Council and Board of Supervisors adopted a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) outlining principles of land use and revenue sharing between the City and County of Sacramento for the Natomas area, setting the stage for what has come to be known as the “Natomas Joint Vision.” The “Natomas Joint Vision Study Area” overlay on the Land Use Diagram indicates the area addressed by this MOU.

The cooperative effort addresses land use, economic
development, and environmental opportunities and challenges in Natomas. The result will be quality development balanced with permanent open space preservation systems. Additionally, SACOG’s Blueprint shows significant development in the
Natomas Joint Vision Area. Because of the MOU, the Blueprint and the importance of the Natomas Joint Vision Area to the region, the County anticipates development in portions of the Natomas Basin within the timeframe of the General Plan. Subject to the preparation and certification of the appropriate environmental documentation, this development shall be
accomplished either by an expansion of the USB, the City’s Sphere of Influence, or both. See related policy LU-114 and Implementation Measure C in the “Regional and Local Agency Coordination” section of this Element.

Land Use Element Policy LU-114 states the following:

It is the policy of Sacramento County that development and open space preservation in the Natomas Joint Vision Overlay Area occur in a comprehensive, responsible and cohesive manner that best addresses land use, economic development and environmental opportunities and challenges in Natomas.

Implementation Measure C states the following:

Pursue comprehensive and collaborative planning in the Natomas Joint Vision Overlay Area; either through the continued participation in the Natomas Joint Vision MOU or, if determined appropriate, with the County serving as the lead agency for development and open space preservation.

The above description of the Natomas Joint Vision Study Area overlay, Policy LU-114 and Implementation Measure C make it clear that the Board was willing to consider Sacramento County serving as the agent of development PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

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in the Natomas Basin when they approved the General Plan in 2011. It is also clear that the Board recognized the need for close coordination and collaboration with surrounding jurisdictions, as well as the necessity of balancing open space preservation with development.

City of Sacramento General Plan Update
The City of Sacramento launched its 5-year general plan update in October 2018. Over the next 20 months City staff will conduct extensive public outreach meetings, with the first round beginning in early 2019. City staff has advised Sacramento County that as part of the update process, the City may revisit its vision for its five Special Study Areas, one of which includes the Natomas Joint Vision Study Area.

Significant Issues
The following list of issues, while not an exhaustive list of all items that will be addressed in the Master Planning process, does outline the significant issues that will need substantial additional work/study/coordination to develop a clear path forward beyond initiation:
 Project boundary
 Existing HCPs and State/federal permitting pathways, including out-of- Basin mitigation
 Agricultural viability and mitigation
 Drainage and flooding
 Water supply
 City/County coordination
 General Plan consistency
 Airport protection
 Climate change, climate adaptation, and resiliency
Sacramento County Interests
While pursuing master plan initiation in the Natomas Basin, the needs and concerns of all affected parties must remain in focus and be balanced. The County has an interest in assuring that the buildout of the approved development of Metro Air Park, the continued operation and expansion of Sacramento International Airport, the continued progress and clear permitting pathways for SAFCA and the USACE for improving the Natomas levees to 200-year protection, comprehensive open space planning, and the preservation of a viable agricultural economy remain part of the comprehensive planning for the Natomas Basin.

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It is staff’s qualitative assessment that Sacramento County’s current interests are much the same as when the Natomas Joint Vision MOU was adopted in December 2002. The issues and concerns regarding open space, economic development, and future growth outlined in the MOU are still relevant today. Sacramento County remains committed to sound planning principles that result in protection of the airport from urban encroachment and wildlife attractors, open space preservation to enhance quality of life, continuation of productive agriculture, and the creation of high-quality communities.

Since adoption of the Natomas Joint Vision MOU, additional issues such as climate change, sustainability and climate resiliency have emerged. A secure and sustainable water supply as well as protection from flooding, given the variabilities associated with climate change, will also need to be provided.

Sacramento County recognizes that any new development in the Natomas Basin above the 17,500 acres already approved and permitted by the Natomas Basin and Metro Air Park HCPs will have serious implications and requires careful coordination and consideration of existing approved developments, their mitigation strategies, and the regional conservation context.

The complexities and interrelationships noted above demonstrate the need for close coordination among stakeholders and regulators, and the need for the Planning Director to assemble and convene a Technical Advisory Committee consistent with the Master Plan Procedures And Preparation Guide and County Code Section 21.14.060.

The Technical Advisory Committee will provide feedback, peer review and guidance on topics across multiple disciplines throughout the master plan process. Preliminary technical studies examining cultural resources, biological constraints and mitigation strategies, property ownership and expected uses, provision of public services, flood protection and drainage strategies, and airport noise and safety will be needed to inform the feasibility of the land use plan as currently proposed and to aid in preparation of a stable project description. Once a stable project description is reasonably certain, the next step in the Master Planning process will be to return to the Board for review of the final Draft Master Plan and any related technical support documents in a workshop setting to determine that the project is adequate to begin initiation of environmental review pursuant to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). An Environmental Impact Report (EIR) will likely be the appropriate CEQA document for the proposed Project. Therefore, the next step after initiation of the environmental review process would be the development and release of a Notice of Preparation (NOP) of an EIR. A stable project description, supported by enough technical PLNP2018-00284. Initiation Of The Upper Westside Master Planning Process

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study to demonstrate a reasonable likelihood of project feasibility is paramount to a defensible and informative CEQA process.

Further and more detailed technical studies, such as a transportation impact analysis, an air quality analysis, a greenhouse gas and climate adaptation analysis, a noise study, a fiscal impact analysis, an aesthetic analysis, and a bird airstrike analysis are dependent on a stable project description and land use plan. These studies will be finalized as part of the environmental review process and must be adequate and complete before the publication of a Draft EIR can be scheduled.

Master Plan Initiation Process Analysis
Staff developed the recommendation to proceed with master plan initiation after careful research of the history of development in the Natomas Basin, review of the principles of the Natomas Joint Vision MOU, review of past litigation and rulings, and conversations with stakeholders. However, the two greatest influences and determining factors in the recommendation to initiate the Master Planning process are the Board-adopted General Plan and the Board-adopted Master Plan Procedures And Preparation Guide . These two documents clearly lay out the pathway to initiate the Master Plan process, which this staff report recommends. The General Plan addresses applications for new growth areas in Land Use Element Policy LU-119 which states:

The County shall only accept applications to expand the UPA or initiate an expansion of the UPA or any Master Plan processes outside of the existing UPA if the Board finds that the proposal meets the following:
• Parallel processes to expand UPA and prepare Master Plans:

Proposed additions to the UPA will only be considered when accompanied by a request to initiate a Master Plan process for all land encompassed by the proposed UPA expansion boundary. Likewise, requests to initiate a Master Plan process outside the UPA will only be considered when accompanied by a request to expand the UPA to include all land encompassed by the proposed Master Plan. • Project Justification Statement and Outreach Plan: Proposed UPA expansions/Master Plan processes must be accompanied by both a “Justification Statement” and an “Outreach Plan”. The Justification Statement shall be a comprehensive explanation of the proposed request and the development it would allow. It must include background information, reasoning, and the goal(s) and benefits of the proposed project. The Outreach Plan shall describe how the project proponent plans to inform and engage neighbors and members of the general public about the proposed UPA expansion and project.

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• Proximity to existing urbanized areas: Proposed UPA
expansions/Master Plan processes must have significant borders that are adjacent to the existing UPA or a city boundary. As a guideline, “significant borders” generally means that the length of the boundary between the existing UPA or city boundary and the proposed UPA expansion/Master Plan should be 25 percent of the length of the boundary of the UPA expansion area.
• Logical, comprehensive, and cohesive planning boundaries:

Proposed UPA expansions/Master Plan processes must consist of a contiguous set of parcels that have a regular outside boundary consistent with the logical planning boundary illustrations below [Note:

Diagrams omitted for clarity but may be viewed in the General Plan.].

All parcels within this boundary must be included in both the proposed UPA expansion and proposed Master Plan area.

Staff has determined that the project reasonably complies with Policy LU- 119, above. The Project proposes a parallel process to expand the UPA and prepare a Specific Plan. It also contains a justification statement and outreach plan. Staff, however, will be working with the applicant to enhance the outreach plan to reach more diverse stakeholder groups, provide equitable opportunities for input, and to ensure transparency of process. The Project is proximate to other urban areas and has reasonably logical boundaries, however, staff is reserving the ability to re-define the boundaries as the issues discussed above are studied and additional clarity emerges.

Initiation of the Master Plan will provide for the technical study of the process for, and feasibility of, allowing urbanization and the associated extension of infrastructure to the Project area. The funding agreement will assure that Sacramento County costs related to the process are reimbursed by the Owners’ Group. Numerous and complex areas of concern exist, as outlined above, and County staff will work to proactively address these concerns consistent with the general concepts of the Natomas Joint Vision MOU and principles of modern land use planning and growth management.

The General Plan and the Master Plan Procedures And Preparation Guide set a high bar of expectations and responsibilities on the applicants to demonstrate compliance with the growth management criteria and other policies of the General Plan. While Policy LU-119 addresses Master Plan initiation, there are other policies such as LU-120, LU-127 and LU-15 which will be utilized by County staff, later in the Master Plan process, to determine whether or not the Master Plan could be recommended for approval.

Initiation of the Master Plan process is only the first step and is not a guarantee of approval. The County strongly cautions that the applicants proceed at their own risk.

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FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The Master Plan process is funded entirely by the Owners’ Group as outlined in the attached Funding Agreement and associated estimated budget of $2,015,245 in County reimbursable work. The work plan includes participation from several County departments over multiple years.

Attachments:

RES – Resolution to Initiate the Upper West Side Specific Plan Process EXH A to RES - Upper Westside Boundaries
ATT 1 – Funding Agreement
ATT 2 – Project Location Map
ATT 3 – Master Plan Procedures and Preparation Guide
ATT 4 – Applicant’s Project Initiation Application Attachment ATT 5 – Natomas Basin Map
ATT 6 – Natomas Basin Existing and Proposed Development ATT 7 – The Natomas Basin Conservancy 2019 Map
ATT 8 – Judge David F. Levi September 7, 2005 Ruling
ATT 9 – SAFCA 2018 Progress Report
ATT 10 – Reasonably Safe Findings and Staff Report
ATT 11 – Land Diagram SAFCA Board of Directors Meeting Nov 2018 ATT 12 – Map of Internal Floodplain
ATT 13 – Natomas Vision MOU
ATT 14 – Broad Visioning Sketches
ATT 15 – County General Plan Natomas Joint Vision Study Area

EXHIBIT 10

N-038-60-19-53-R-038-2020 UWMP
3-1 City of Sacramento
2020 Urban Water Management Plan
June 2021

CHAPTER 3
System Description
This chapter provides a description of the City’s water system and service area. This includes a description of the water system facilities, climate, population, and housing within the City’s service area.

3.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION
The City is the capital of California and the seat of Sacramento County (County). The City is located in the Central Valley of California, which is surrounded by the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the east, coastal ranges to the west, Klamath Mountains to the North, and is oriented in a north-south direction. The City encompasses approximately 101 square miles (Dyett & Bhatia, 2019) and is located at the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers that meet on the western boundary of the City. The Sacramento River flows south from Lake Shasta, while the American River flows west from the Sierra Neva da Mountains. As shown on Figure 3-1, the City limits span the area north of the City of Elk Grove, west of the City of Rancho Cordova, ea st of the Sacramento River, and south of Placer and Sutter Counties.

Figure 3-1 also displays the retail water service area and sphere of influence (SOI).

The City was founded in 1849 with a population of 9,087 people, and in 1920, voters adopted a City Charter (municipal constitution) and a City Council -City Manager form of government; this form of government is still in use today. The City’ s current population is approximately 510,9311. The City’s Department of Utilities (DOU) is responsible for providing and maintaining water, sewer collection, storm drainage and flood control services for residents and businesses within the City’s water service area.

1 2020 data from State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and State, 2011 – 2020 with 2010 Census Benchmark. Sacramento, California, May 2020.

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2020 UWMP
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Chapter 3
System Description

N-038-60-19-53-R-038-2020 UWMP
3-3 City of Sacramento
2020 Urban Water Management Plan
June 2021

3.2 SERVICE AREA BOUNDARY
In this section, the City’s retail service area and the wholesale agencies receiving water supply from (or providing water to) the City are described.

3.2.1 Retail Service Area
The City’s retail water customers are located within the corporate limits of the City of Sacramento and foreseeable future expansions of the City limits. The City’s retail water service area covers an area of approximately 101 square miles (64,425 acres) 2. The City reporte d that it is approximately 99 percent metered as of December 31, 2020. The system is responsible for delivering treated water to residential, commercial, and irrigation customers in the City’s retail water service area. The City also ser ves a small number of customers outside the City limits in an adjacent, unincorporated portion of the County, but does not serve a small portion of residents inside the City limits who receive their water from SSWD. The population of these two areas are ro ughly equivalent. In addition, the Sacramento Power Authority’s (SPA’s) Cogeneration (Cogen) Facility is located outside of the City limit s and currently receives potable water from the City and recycled water through a partnership with the Regional Sanitation District.

Ground surface elevations generally range from about 5 feet above sea level east of the Sacramento River to approximately 75 feet above sea level in the northeast part of the service area. Soils within the City consist of unconsolidated clay, silt, and sand that resulted from floodplain deposits. The City is within the reclaimed flood plain of the Sacramento River.

The City ha s multiple surface water entitlements, consisting of five appropriative water right permits issued by the State Water Resources Control B oard (SWRCB), pre -1914 rights and a water rights settlement contract with the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR ). These water rights allow the City to divert water from the Sacramento and American Rivers. A description of the City’s surface water rights is included in Chapter 6.

The City’s authorized Place of Use (POU) for the Sacramento River includes all the land within the City limits. The POU for the American River supply includes the City limits and also defined areas adjacen t to the City that includes portions of service areas of other water purveyors. The City’s POU for each surface water source is shown on Figure 3-2.

2 Based on current City limits (as of June 2019) per 2040 General Plan Draft Technical Background Report dated September 2019.

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City of Sacramento
2020 UWMP
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Chapter 3
System Description

N-038-60-19-53-R-038-2020 UWMP
3-5 City of Sacramento
2020 Urban Water Management Plan
June 2021

3.2.2 Wholesale Service Area
Wholesale water service is where the City serves water from the City’s entitlements to other agencies.

The City’s water rights and supply facilities provide regiona l benefits by making water available for the benefit of areas within the POU for each surface water source. The City currently delivers wholesale water to four customers (SCWA, SSWD, Cal Am and the Natomas Unified School District) through several turnouts that border the City’s retail service area. The wholesale customers are shown on Figure 3-2 and described below. The total existing population served by the City’s wholesale customers is estimated to be 617,200.

In general, wheeling service is where the City diverts, treats, and conveys water to another agency using that agencies’ water supply en titlements. The City treats and wheels water to the Sacr amento County Water Agency Zone 40.

The City uses the same surface water treatment facilities, groundwater w ells, storage tanks, pumping facilities, and distribution/transmission pipelines described i n Section 3.3 and shown on Figure 3 -3 to deliver water to wholesale and wheeling customers.

3.2.2.1 Sacramento County Water Agency
SCWA was formed in 1952 by a special legislative act of the State of California and is governed by a Board of Directors. SCWA uses a combination of surface water, groundwater, and recycled water as its sources of water supply.

The City has two connections to serve SCWA. One connection located nea r Franklin Boulevard at the southern boundary of the City serves the Zone 40 service area. A second connection located in Bayou Road at the western edge of the City serves the Sacramento International Airport and Zone 50 Metro Air Park.

In addition to wholesale water service, the City wheels water for SCWA. The City treats and delivers SCWA water from the Sacramento River to serve a portion of SCWA’s Zone 40 service area. Wheeled water is diverted and conveyed through the City’s water system using SCWA’s water entitlements. Wheeled water volumes are not included as a demand in this UWMP.

Also, in 2020, the City received water from SCWA as part of a groundwater substitution transfer.

3.2.2.2 Sacramento Suburban Water District
SSWD is made up of four service areas within the County. SSWD uses a combination of surface water and groundwater as its sources of w ater supply. In 2004, the City entered into an agreement with SSWD to supply up to 20 million gallons per day (MGD) (22,400 AFY) of American River water supply plus up to 10 MGD of additional water. The amount of water available to SSWD is impacted by the hydrologic conditions in the American River and is reduced during dry conditions. SSWD has been receiving wholesale water from the City for its South Service Area (SSA) located within the American River POU since 2007.

Also, in 2018 and 2020, the City received water from SSWD as part of a groundwater substitution transfer.

The City has a total of seven interties with SSWD. One main intertie is used to convey water between the agencies; this main intertie is located near Howe Avenue and Northrop Drive at the eastern boundary of the City. The other interties are for emergency use only.

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Riverside
Reservoir
Alhambra
Reservoir
Shasta
Reservoir
E.A. Fairbairn WTP
Sacramento
River WTP
Figure 3-3
Water Treatment and
Distribution System
City of Sacramento
2020 UWMP
") Municipal Well -
Permitted
") Municipal Well -
Pending Permit
"5 Wholesale
Intertie
[PS
±
Bell Ave Booster
Pump Station
UT Storage Facility
TP T W
U
Water Treatment
Plant

TP T W W
U
Wastewater
Treatment Plant
Distribution
Pipeline
Transmission
Pipeline
Recycled Water
Pipeline
!(
SPA Cogen
Facility
Main Avenue
Pressure Zone
City of
Sacramento
Limits
WEST YOST - N:\Clients\038 Sac City\60-19-53 2019 Water MP\GIS\MXD\UWMP\Fig3-3_ExSystem.mxd - mmcwilliams - 5/7/2021 Notes:

1. Municipal wells with pending permit includes one well at the EAFWTP and two wells at the Shasta Storage facility.

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2020 Urban Water Management Plan
June 2021

3.2.2.3 California American Water Company
Cal Am is a wholly -owned subsidiary of the American Water Works Company. Cal Am was incorporated into American Water Works Company under California law in 1966. Three of the service areas lie within the American River POU: Arden, Parkway, and Suburban Rosemont. Cal Am uses a combination of groundwater and wholesale purchases as its water supply.

In 1997, the City entered into a wholesale agreement for the Parkway service area. In 2010, the agreement was modified to include both firm and non-firm capacity. The modified agreement includes a firm capacity of 2.3 MGD (2,580 AFY) and a non -firm capacity of 3.46 MGD (3,880 AFY) during off -peak periods (October 15th through May 14th), and can be delivered to any of the three services areas within the American River POU.

In 2019, Cal Am acquired the Fruitridge Vista Water Company (FVWC) which was formed in 1953 by the Cook family to serve water to homeowners in an unincorporated area south of the City in the County. The City had a wholesale agreement with FVWC wh ich has now been transferred to Cal Am -Fruitridge. The Cal Am-Fruitridge service area is considered substantially built out with approximately 95 percent of the service area developed. Cal Am-Fruitridge uses primarily groundwater for supply with wholesale water as a supplemental supply source. The City’s agreement with Cal Am-Fruitridge allows the purchase of 3.24 MGD (3,630 AFY) firm capacity which is subject to reductions under certain hydrologic conditions.

The City has five existing connections to serve Cal Am as follows:
• At the intersection of “A” Parkway and Franklin Boulevard to serve Cal Am’s Parkway service area
• At the terminal end of a 24-inch diameter transmission main in Folsom Boulevard to serve the Rosemont service area
• At 47th Avenue near the western boundary of the Cal Am-Fruitridge service area • Near the intersection of Fruitridge Boulevard and Sampson Avenue to serve the Cal Am-Fruitridge service area
• At the intersection of Howe Avenue and Alta Arden Expressway to serve Cal Am’s Arden service area

3.2.2.4 Natomas Unified School District
As of July 2019, the City entered into an agre ement with Natomas Unified School District to wholesale a small amount of water to serve the Paso Verde K-8 school located outside but adjacent to the City limits.

3.3 WATER SYSTEM DESCRIPTION
The City is responsible for delivering treated water to residential, commercial, and irrigation customers.

The City’s distribution system consists of two surface water treatment facilities, two pressure zones, groundwater wells , storage ta nks, pumping facilities, and distribution/transmission pipelines. Each of these components are discussed in more detail below, and the locations of the major facilities are shown on Figure 3-3.

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June 2021

3.3.1 Surface Water Supply and Treatment Facilities
The City treats surface water diverted from the Sacramento and American Rivers with two water treatment facilities: the Sacramento River Water Treatment Plant (SRWTP) and the E.A. Fairbairn Water Treatment Plant (EAFWTP). The locations of the water treatment plants are shown on Figure 3-3.

3.3.1.1 Sacramento River Water Treatment Plant
The SRWTP located just e ast of Interstate 5 and
south of R ichards Boulevard, treats water that is
pumped from the Sacramento River about one-half
mile downstream of the American River confluence
(Figure 3-3). The SRWTP began operation in 1924
with an initial capacity of 32 MGD. Expansions and
modifications completed by the City since the 1920’s
have increased the diversion capacity to 160 MGD
which is also the permitted capacity for the SRWTP.

The City is pe rmitted to operate the plant at
160 MGD in the summer months and 120 MGD in
the shoulder months. However, summer operations can be impacted by unusually low river levels which potentially reduce capacity of the plant to 135 MGD in the summer months. The City is currently evaluating further expansion of the SRWTP to increase the diversion and treatment capacity to 310 MGD.

3.3.1.2 E.A. Fairbairn Water Treatment Plant
The EAFWTP is located on the south bank of the
lower American River, approximately seve n miles
upstream from its confluence with the Sacramento
River (Figure 3-3). Construction of the EAFWTP was
completed in 1964 with various improvements
completed over the years . The plant was designed
to be expanded in stages to an ultimate treatment
capacity of 40 4 MGD. The EAFWTP is currently
rated at a diversion capacity of 200 MGD, with a
permitted treatment capacity of 160 MGD (80 MGD
for Basins 1 and 2, and 80 MGD for Basins 3 and 4).

However, the EAFWTP is unable to operate reliably
at capacity due to the poor condition of some of the plant facilities, and due to environmental agreements that frequently limit diversions during summer months, and other reduced rates during different parts of the year due to water rights agreements, as discussed in further detail in Chapter 6. Therefore, the current reliable capacity of the EAFWTP during peak demand periods is 80 MGD, with the ability to operate at up to 100 MGD, but only for short periods of time.

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June 2021

3.3.2 Groundwater Wells
The City currently has 26 permitted wells in the North American Subbasin and 2 permitted wells in the South American Subbasin; however, only 23 of these wells are operated on a regular basis to supply municipal water. The City’s well inventory also include s 22 operational irrigation/park su pply wells, and three recently completed, but as of yet not permitted wells, two at Shasta and one at EAFWTP. The total pumping capacity of the wells is about 23 MGD. Assuming that only 60 to 90 percent of the wells are available at any given time, the tot al pumping capacity is about 14 to 20 MGD. As of 2020, the average age of the City’s active potable wells is about 60 years old with the oldest well at 76 years old. Well locations are shown on Figure 3-3.

3.3.3 Storage Tanks
The City currently has seventeen storage facilities: twelve storage reservoirs are located throughout the City, and five finished water clearwells that are located at the water treatment plants (two at EAFWTP and three at SRWTP ). The cumulative distribution storage reservoir capacity is 49 million gallons (MG). The clearwell reservoirs located at EAFWTP and SRWTP have a combined capacity of approximately 45 MG.

The locations of the twelve storage tanks located throughout the City and the locations of the two water treatment plants are shown on Figure 3-3.

3.3.4 Pumping Facilities
The City currently operates eighteen (18) high lift service pumps at the SRWTP and EA FWTP and has capacity to add an additional six (6) high lift service pumps at the EAFWTP. The locations of the booster pump facilities are shown on Figure 3-3. All of the storage reservoirs have pump stations to deliver water to the residents and businesses as water demands vary. The City maintains one additional booster pump station to serve water in a small separated pressure zone in the northeast part of the City.

3.3.5 Distribution and Transmission Pipelines
The City maintains approximately 1,800 miles of tra nsmission and distribution sys tem mains ranging in size from 2 to 72 inches in diameter; only 415 miles are of pipeline sizes 12 inches in diameter or larger.

Approximately 70 percent of the City’s system consists of 6 -inch and 8-inch diameter pipelines. The City has one dedicated recycl ed water pipeline that delivers recycled water from the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant to the Sacramento Power Authority Cogeneration Facility, as shown on Figure 3-3 and further discussed in Chapter 6.

3.3.6 Pressure Zones
Two pressure zones e xist in the City. High service pumps at each of the treatment plants pump water directly into the distribution system, creating a pressure zone that encompasses the majority of the City.

The second pressure zone is a small area in the northeast portion of the City. On average the City maintains approximately 45 pounds per square inch (psi) throughout its system with a minimum pressure threshold of 30 psi.

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June 2021

3.4 SERVICE AREA CLIMATE
The climate of the City’s retail and wholesale ser vice areas are typical of the Sa cramento Valley. The winters are moist with mild temperatures, while the summers are hot and dry. As shown in Table 3-1, precipitation averages approximately 17 inches per year, while average temperatures range from a low of around 36 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) to a high of around 93°F. Average evapotranspiration (ETo) is based on data for Station 131 (Fair Oaks) obtained from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) website. Rainfall and temperature data is based on data for Sacramento Executive Airport Station obtained from the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) website. The histo rical climate characteristics affecting water management in the City’s service area are shown in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1. Monthly Average Climate Data Summary
Month
Standard Monthly
Average ETo, inches
Average Total
Precipitation,
inches(b)
Average Temperature,
degrees Fahrenheit
Maximum Minimum
January 1.12 3.56 53.5 37.8
February 1.78 3.07 59.9 41.0
March 3.24 2.44 64.6 43.1
April 4.52 1.17 71.4 45.9
May 6.35 0.5 79.9 50.7
June 7.44 0.18 87.2 55.4
July 7.91 0.03 92.7 58.2
August 7.03 0.06 91.5 57.8
September 5.14 0.25 87.7 55.8
October 3.36 0.93 77.7 50.2
November 1.61 2.04 63.7 42.6
December 1.04 3.02 53.8 35.8
Totals 50.54 17.24 73.6 48.1
Source: California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) data for Fair Oaks Station 131 (downloaded February 8, 2021).

Source: Western Regional Climate Center (www.wrcc.dri.edu) data for Sacramento Executive Airport Station 047630 (period of record: November 10, 1941 to June 9, 2016)

The American River Basin Study (ARBS) is a joint effort between the USBR and six local area non -federal cost partners including Placer County Water Agency (contracting lead), the cities of Folsom, Roseville, and Sacramento, El Dorado County Water Agency, and the Regional Water Authority to further refine the assessment of water supplies and demands in the American River Basin. The ARBS evalua tes several potential climate change scenarios which may impact the region’s water supplies and water demands.

Key ARBS findings with resp ect to climate change impacts to temperature, precipitation/snowpack, and runoff are as follows:
• Surface air temperatures are projected to increase steadily, with summer temperature increasing by approximately 7.2°F by the end of the 21st Century, and winter temperature increasing by 4.9°F. Projections of daily maximum and minimum temperatures suggest similar seasonal trends. Maximum temperatures are projected to increase more than minimum temperatures during all seasons, with the largest increase of 7.3°F during the summer months.

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• Annual precipitation projections show no change over the 21st Century. Approximately half of the projections indicate an increase in annual precipitation and half indicate a decrease, highlighting the large uncertainty in future precipitation over this region. Although lacking clear trend in projected annual precipitation, by the end of the 21st Century, average fall and spring precipitation is expected to decrease, with winter and summer precipitation increasing. Large variability is also expected in winter and fall precipitation. Snowpack will likely decline due to warming.
• Runoff is expected to increase during winter months. Projections indicate a pronounced shift in the distribution of runoff from May and June to earlier in the season (December to March), implying a shift in precipitation from snow to rainfall and/or earlier snowmelt. Peak runoff may shift by more than a month earlier by mid- to late-century. Spring runoff will decrease due to reduced winter snowpack.

Additional discussion on potential climate change impacts to the City’s water demands and water supplies is provided in Chapters 4, 6, and 7 of this plan.

3.5 SERVICE AREA POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS
The City’s water service population is described below, along with demographics that may affect water management and planning.

3.5.1 Retail Service Area Population
As described above, the City provides water service to most of the area within the City limits, except a small number of City reside nts who receive their water from SSWD . The City also serves a small number of customers outside of the City limits in an adjacent, unincorporated portion of the County. The population of these two areas are roughly equivalent. Because the retail service area boundary and the City boundary are contiguous by at least 95 percent, the City estimates its service area population using California Department of Finance (CDoF) data. The City’s current (2020) service area population is 510,931.

Land use planning within the City is undertaken by the City’s Community Development Department. The City adopted its 2035 General Plan in March 2015. The 2035 General Plan provi des a framework for the City’s vision and guiding principles for development within the City for a planning horizon to 2035.

Projections of future population within the City’s service area and sphere of influence for the years 2025 and 2035 are based on the 2035 General Plan. Projected population for 2040 was obtained from the City’s 2015 UWMP. The 2040 population is based on the continued g rowth rate from the 2035 General Plan population projections plus the Natomas Joint Vision Study Area. To obtain popul ation projections to 2045, an assumption of a continued growth rate within the current s ervice area and sphere of influence consistent with the 2035 General Plan and 2040 population projection was used. The areas outside of the City’s SOI are currently anticipated to be served by the County. Figure 3-1 shows the City’s SOI. The City’s current and projected service area populations are shown in Table 3-2.

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June 2021

Table 3-2. Retail Population – Current and Projected (DWR Table 3-1 Retail)

3.5.2 Wholesale Service Area Population
The City’s wholesale current and projected service area population through 2040 is from the City’s 2015 UWMP. The 2045 projected wholesale population was estimated by using the growth rate from the previous projections. The wholesale population nu mbers summarized in Table 3-3 represent the population for wholesale customer’s entire s ervice areas. Therefore, the information shown inc ludes population outside the American River POU.

Table 3-3. Wholesale Population – Current and Projected (DWR Table 3-1 Wholesale)

3.5.3 Retail Service Area Social, Economic, and Demographics The CWC now requires the inclusion of service area socioeconomic in formation as part of the system description in UWMPs. However, differences in household water use across sociodemographic groups in the City has not been studied. Therefore, the following social, economic, and demographic information is being provided to c omply with the new regulation. The information was derived from the US Census 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045(opt)
510,931 566,038 603,209 640,381 695,830 745,319
Population
Served
NOTES:
2020 data from State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State, 2011-2020 with 2010 Census Benchmark — Sacramento, California, May 2020.
2025 – 2035 projected population from the City’s 2035 General Plan. 2040 projected population is based on a continuous growth rate plus the Natomas Joint Vision Study Area.
2045 projected population estimated using growth rate of previous projections.

Opt, the abbreviation for optional, is used in this table and subsequent tables throughout this UWMP.
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045(opt)
617,200 669,000 725,200 787,100 828,500 887,600
Population
Served
NOTES: Projected wholesale population for 2020 through 2040 is from the City's 2015 UWMP. 2045 projected wholesale population estimated using growth rate of previous projections.

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June 2021

Bureau’s profile of Sacramento for 2014 -2018 and is assumed to sufficiently apply to the City’s water service area and the water service areas of its wholesale customers.3 • The average number of people per household in the five-year period analyzed was 2.66 • The median household income in Sacramento was $58,456, while 18.3 percent of all individuals and 24.6 percent of youth under the age of 18 lived in poverty • The average unemployment rate was 8 percent
• The owner-occupied housing unit rate was 48 percent, with a median home value of $313,400 • The median gross rent was $1,179 per month
• The median age was 34.4 years
• Of persons 25 years or older in Sacramento, 84.7 percent had earned at least a high school diploma or equivalent and 32.6 percent had earned a bachelor’s degree or higher • Of persons under 65 years of age, 8.3 percent had a disability • Of the non-institutionalized civilian population, 6.9 percent did not have health insurance • Almost 92 percent of households had a computer, and 83.2 percent had a broadband internet subscription
• By race/ethnicity, 47.2 percent of people were White, 13.4 percent were Black, 0.8 percent were American Indian or Alaska Native, 18.9 percent were Asian, 1.7 percent were Hawaiian Native or Pacific Islander, 11 percent were another race, and 7 percent were two or more races. Of the total population in Sacramento, 28.7 percent of people were Hispanic or Latino and 71.3 percent were non-Hispanic or non-Latino
• Of Sacramento residents, 22.6 percent were foreign born, and 38.2 percent of people age five years and older spoke a language other than English at home

3.6 LAND USES WITHIN SERVICE AREA
The Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) projects that the County, as a whole, will continue to experience growth in jobs, housing, and population.4 Land use that may impact water supply planning for the City’s service area are discussed below.

3.6.1 Land Uses Within Retail Service Area
Existing land use within the City of Sacramento is summarized in Table 3-4. Total land use within the City is 52,242 acres, excluding rights-of-way. The City is currently approximately 86 percent developed.

3 United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014-2018 ACS 5-Year Data Profile for Sacramento, CA. 4 Sacramento Area Council of Governments, November 2019. 2020 Metropolitan Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy. https://www.sacog.org/post/adopted-2020-mtpscs.

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Table 3-4. Existing Land Uses
Land Use Acres Percent of City Area
Residential 23,278 45
Commercial, Office, and Mixed Use 4,048 8
Industrial 4,800 9
Public/Institutional 4,380 8
Open Space/Recreational 5,806 11
Other(a) 2,932 5
Vacant 6,998 14
Total 52,242 100
Source: 2040 General Plan, Draft Technical Background Report (Table 2-7), September 2019. Totals exclude rights-of-way. (a) Other land uses include utilities, agricultural, miscellaneous, and parking.

These existing land uses are further described as follows:
• Residential land uses represent the largest land use category in the City limits, at 45 percent of total land use, with single family residential uses accounting for 84 percent of the residential land use.
• Commercial, office, and mixed uses are about 8 percent of the land within the City limits, with retail/commercial uses making up 4 percent. Commercial and office uses are typically along corridors, while office uses are often in office parks. • Industrial uses account for 9 percent of the total land use and are located throughout the City, often near transportation infrastructure, such as freeways and rail lines. • Public/Institutional uses account for 8 percent of the land use. These include State and local government uses in and around the Downtown area. Other public uses, such as schools, educational facilities, and other public and community facilities are distributed throughout the City.
• Open space and recreational uses, 11 percent of the land use total, includes public parks, paths and trails, sports facilities, and drainage and flood control areas. • Other land uses, approximately 5 percent of the total, include utilities, agricultural, miscellaneous, and parking.
• Vacant land accounts for approximately 14 percent of all land use.

The City is currently in the process of updating its General Plan which will help guide future growth in the City. The City is anticipating future growth to occur in 59 Opportunity Areas around the City and has estimated growth for these areas in terms of antic ipated new dwelling units and jobs. The City has projected the future growth to incl ude approximately 70,000 new dwelling units and approximately 77,000 new jobs. Approximately 92 percent of future dwelling unit growth and 89 percent of future jobs is expected to occur within the Opportunity Areas. The remaining 8 percent of future dwelling unit growth and 11 percent of future job growth is expected to occur throughout the City. Table 3 -5 provides a summary of the anticipated future growth in the City. Figure 3-4 shows the location of the 59 Opportunity Areas the City identified.

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Table 3-5. Anticipated Future Growth in Housing Units and Jobs Opportunity Area
Housing Units Jobs
Anticipated
Growth
Percent
Growth
Anticipated
Growth
Percent
Growth
47th 44 0.1 29 0.0
65th North 2,612 3.8 2,254 2.9
65th South 1,670 2.4 2,717 3.5
Arco Arena 1,918 2.8 3,056 4.0
Arden Fair 749 1.1 1,169 1.5
Arden/Del Paso 371 0.5 107 0.1
Broadway 866 1.3 365 0.5
Broadway East 143 0.2 117 0.2
C Street 200 0.3 221 0.3
Central Business District 7,271 10.6 6,787 8.9
Central City Corridors 5,399 7.9 1,352 1.8
City College(a) 128 0.2 23 0.0
Cosumnes River(a) 471 0.7 441 0.6
CSU-Sacramento Village 237 0.3 1,383 1.8
Del Paso 258 0.4 200 0.3
Delta Shores 5,222 7.6 1,418 1.9
Delta Shores Transit Center 370 0.5 687 0.9
Florin 1,124 1.6 368 0.5
Folsom East 579 0.8 180 0.2
Franklin 77 0.1 27 0.0
Freeport North 72 0.1 57 0.1
Freeport South 515 0.8 143 0.2
Fruitridge 30 0.0 -16 0.0
Globe Light Rail Transit 361 0.5 136 0.2
Granite Park 531 0.8 1,356 1.8
Greenbriar 2,766 4.0 829 1.1
Jackson(a) 1,155 1.7 538 0.7
Johnston East(a) 155 0.2 166 0.2
Johnston West(a) 56 0.1 150 0.2
Kaiser Med Center 0 0.0 500 0.7
Lemon Hill 517 0.8 100 0.1
Mack 215 0.3 450 0.6
Marconi 78 0.1 191 0.2
Marysville 184 0.3 183 0.2
McClellan Heights/Parker Homes 287 0.4 227 0.3
Meadowview 518 0.8 22 0.0
Methodist Med Center 80 0.1 910 1.2

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Table 3-5. Anticipated Future Growth in Housing Units and Jobs Opportunity Area
Housing Units Jobs
Anticipated
Growth
Percent
Growth
Anticipated
Growth
Percent
Growth
North City Farms(a) 34 0.0 28 0.0
North Natomas EC 1,758 2.6 2,583 3.4
North Northgate 535 0.8 93 0.1
Northgate 83 0.1 136 0.2
Panhandle 1,622 2.4 654 0.9
Point West 0 0.0 45 0.1
Power Inn/Army Depot 351 0.5 2,363 3.1
R Street Central City Housing 1,530 2.2 573 0.7
Raley(a) 0 0.0 1,357 1.8
Richards Boulevard 3,352 4.9 8,832 11.5
Riverfront 5,443 8.0 4,026 5.3
Robla 576 0.8 46 0.1
Royal Oaks 259 0.4 189 0.2
Southwest Natomas(a) 442 0.6 222 0.3
Stockton 888 1.3 106 0.1
Stockton North(a) 452 0.7 106 0.1
Stockton South(a) 217 0.3 235 0.3
Strawberry Manor 544 0.8 27 0.0
Swanston Station 64 0.1 56 0.1
Truxel(a) 534 0.8 569 0.7
UCD Med Center 254 0.4 4,678 6.1
UP Railyards 6,767 9.9 12,571 16.4
Opportunity Area Growth 62,935 92 68,338 89
Non-Opportunity Area Growth 5,470 8 8,261 11
Total Growth 68,405 100 76,600 100
(a) Not shown on Figure 3-4.

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0 2.51.25
Miles

CITY OF WEST

SACRAMENTO
47th
65th
South
65th
North
Arden
Del Paso
Power Inn/
Army Depot
C Street
City
College
Franklin
Granite
Park
Greenbriar
Kaiser
Med Center
Mack
Marconi
Methodist Med
Center
Northgate
Panhandle
Point West
R Street
Central
City Housing
Robla
Riverfront
Strawberry
Manor
UP Railyards
McClellan Heights
Parker Homes
Arco
Arena
North
Natomas EC
Royal OaksGlobe LRT
Del
Paso
Marysville
Swanston
Station
Arden
Fair
Richards Blvd
Central
City
Corridors
CBD
Broadway
Broadway
East
Stockton
UCD Med
Center
CSUS
Village
Folsom
East
Lemon Hill
Meadowview
Florin
Delta Shores
Transit
CenterDelta Shores
Fruitridge
Freeport North
and South
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§¨¦5
§¨¦80
§¨¦80
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CITY OF

ELK GROVE
Sa c r ame n to River Ame r i can
R
iver
Figure 3-4
Future Growth
Opportunity Areas
City of Sacramento
2020 UWMP
City Boundary
City of Sacramento
Limits
Opportunity Area
47th
65th North
65th South
Arco Arena
Arden Fair
Arden/Del Paso
Broadway
Broadway East
C Street
CBD
CSUS Village
Central City
Corridors
City College
Del Paso
Delta Shores
Delta Shores
Transit Center
Florin
Folsom East
Franklin
Freeport North and
South
Fruitridge
Globe LRT
Granite Park
Greenbriar
Kaiser Med Center
Lemon Hill
Mack
Marconi
Marysville
McClellan Heights
Parker Homes
Meadowview
Methodist Med
Center
North Natomas EC
Northgate
Panhandle
Point West
Power Inn/Army
Depot
R Street Central
City Housing
Richards Blvd
Riverfront
Robla
Royal Oaks
Stockton
Strawberry Manor
Swanston Station
UCD Med Center
UP Railyards
WEST YOST - N:\Clients\038 Sac City\60-19-53 2019 Water MP\GIS\MXD\UWMP\Fig3-4_FutureGrowth.mxd - mmcwilliams - 5/10/2021 Notes:

1. The following opportunity areas are not shown: City College, Consumnes River, Jackson, Johnston East, Johnston West, North City Farms, Raley, Southwest Natomas, Stockton North, Stockton South, and Truxel.

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3.6.2 Land Uses Within Wholesale Service Area
Land uses for the City’s wholesale customers are briefly described below. Projected population for the City’s existing and future wholesale customers are summarized in Table 3-3.

3.6.2.1 Sacramento County Water Agency
The SCWA Zone 40 service areas are pr edominantly residential with a small amount of commercial and institutional customers.

3.6.2.2 Sacramento Suburban Water District
The SSWD service area is projected to reach buildout by 2031.5 Based on SACOG data, SSWD projects that single family homes will grow at a faster rate than multi-family homes in its service area.

3.6.2.3 California American Water Company
Cal Am’s Arden, Parkway, and Fruitridge service areas are in the unincorporated region of the County, and SACOG projects most employment growth will be in the unincorporated areas of the County. A region that is expected to grow more intensely is Rancho Cordova; Cal Am’s Rosemont service area partially overlies the City of Rancho Cordova.6 The service area is mostly residential, with 88 percent of the customers being residential and 9 percent commercial. Cal Am’s Fruitridge service area is considered substantially built out with approximately 95 percent of the service area developed.

3.6.2.4 Natomas Unified School District
As of July 2019, the City entered into an agreemen t with Natomas Unified School District to wholesale a small amount of water to serve the Paso Verde K-8 school located outside but adjacent to the City limits.

5 Sacramento Suburban Water District, 2015 Urban Water Management Plan Draft (April 2016) 6 California American Water, Sacramento District 2010 Urban Water Management Plan (October 2011)

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CHAPTER 4
Water Use Characterization
This chapter describes and quantifies the City’s historical, current, and projected water uses to the extent that records are available. The terms “water use” and “water demand” are used interchangeably and refer to water conveyed by a distribution system and used by the City and its customers for any purpose.

4.1 NON-POTABLE VERSUS POTABLE WATER USE
Potable water is water that is safe to drink and which typically has had various levels of t reatment and disinfection.

Recycled water is municipal wastewater that has been treated to a specified quality to enab le it to be used again for non-potable uses. Recycled water is discussed in Chapter 6 (Section 6.5).

Raw water is untreated water that is used in its natural state or with minimal treatment . The City does not deliver raw water to any retail customers within its service area.

4.2 WATER USES BY SECTOR
This section describes the City’s retail water use by customer type, or sector, including historical, current, and the proje cted water uses through 2045. As of December 2020, 99 percent of the City’s water connections were metered.

The City delivers water to the following sectors: single family residential, multi -family residential, commercial (including industrial), institutional, landscape irrigation customers, and other. Water supplied to wholesale and wheeling cu stomers is discussed in Section 4.3. The remaining demand is distribution system losses. The City uses the following definitions for each sector, as outlined in the DWR Guidebook:
• Single Family residential: A single-family dwelling unit. A parcel with a free-standing building containing one dwelling unit that may include a detached secondary dwelling. • Multi-Family residential: Multiple dwelling units contained within one building or several buildings within one complex.
• Institutional (and Governmental): A water user dedicated to public service. This type of user includes, among other users, higher education institutions, schools, courts, churches, hospitals, government facilities, and nonprofit research institutions. • Commercial (and Industrial): The City reports commercial and industrial demand sectors as a single demand sector that includes water users that provide or distribute a product or service and water users that are primarily a manufacturer or processor of materials as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code sectors 31 to 33, inclusive, or an entity that is a water user primarily engaged in research and development. • Landscape: Water connections supplying water solely for landscape irrigation. Such landscapes may be associated with multi-family, commercial, industrial, or institutional/governmental sites, but are considered a separate water use sector if the connection is solely for landscape irrigation.
• Distribution System Losses: Distribution system water losses are the physical water losses from the water distribution system and the supplier’s storage facilities, up to the point of customer consumption.

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• Other: Demand that is not covered in the above demand sectors which include such volume as parcels recently recoded as vacant, metered construction water, or metered water utilized for water main cleaning.

4.2.1 Historical Retail Water Use
The estimated retail water use by sector fo r the City for 2016 through 2019 is summarized in Table 4-1.

Retail water use is estimated because the City was not fully metered for the years shown in Table 4-1. The retail water distribution system is also used to deliver supply t o the City’s wholesale customers. The wholesale customer water demand is included to accurately represent the water lo ss, which is total production minus total consumption, in the retail water distribution system.

Table 4-1. Historical Water Demand by Water Use Sector, AF Water Use Sector 2016 2017 2018 2019
Single Family 41,435 41,868 40,853 39,414
Multi-Family 13,825 12,892 12,171 13,470
Commercial (and Industrial) 16,751 17,949 17,889 16,572 Institutional (and Governmental) 4,029 4,464 4,668 5,478 Landscape 4,275 4,915 4,676 2,492
Other 79 127 235 492
Total Retail Demand 80,394 82,215 80,491 77,919
Wholesale Demand 958 2,460 1,027 8,465
Losses 5,803 9,147 11,379 10,998
Total 87,155 93,823 92,897 97,382

4.2.2 Current Retail Water Use
The City curre ntly serves 142,946 retail customer connections as of December 2020. The customer connection count does not include fire service connections. Actual retail water demand by sector in 2020 is reported in Table 4-2.

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Table 4-2. Retail Demands for Potable and Non-Potable Water – Actual (DWR Table 4-1 Retail)

4.2.3 Projected Retail Water Use
Demand projections provide the basis fo r sizing and phasing future water facilities to ensure adequate supply is available to all customers. The City’s on -going Water Master Pla n Update projected water demands through 2050 and is the basis for the projected water demands summarized in Table 4-3.

The City’s on -going Water Master Plan Update incorporated the most recent and accurate future development estimates and unit water use factors to develop the water demand projections. Unit water use factors were refined based on recent, post-drought water use trends and reflect current and on-going water use efficiencies and water conservation by the City’s water customers. I n addition, th e water demand projections take into account a future drought rebound factor since the 2012 to 2016 historical drought in California to provide conservative demand projections.

The water demand projections are lower compared to the water demand projections in the 2015 UWMP.

The 2015 UWMP used the City’s 2013 Water Master Plan as a basis for its demand projections. Since 2013, the City has implemented a variety of water conservation programs, which has helped reduce water use.

The City has also increased the number of water connections which are metered. In 2016, the City was estimated to be approximately 67 percent metered. As of December 2020, 99 percent of the City’s water connections were metered. Lastly, the projected new growth within the City’s service area (both in terms Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only Use Types that
will be recognized by the WUEdata
online submittal tool
Additional Description
(as needed)
Level of Treatment
When Delivered
Drop down list
Volume*
Single Family Drinking Water 44,419
Multi-Family Drinking Water 13,979
Commercial Includes Industrial Use Type Drinking Water 15,984 Institutional/Governmental Drinking Water 5,740
Landscape Drinking Water 2,905
Other Potable Drinking Water 650
Sales/Transfers/Exchanges
to other agencies To Wholesale Customers Drinking Water 3,607 Losses Drinking Water 13,197
100,483
2020 Actual
NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF).

TOTAL
Add additional rows as needed
* Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

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of number of planned new housing units and employment) is less than what was projected for the 20 13 Water Master Plan. All of these factors contribute to the lower projected water demand presented in Table 4-3.

Table 4-3. Retail Demands for Potable and Non-Potable Water – Projected (DWR Table 4-2 Retail)

4.2.3.1 30-Year Planning Horizon
As part of the City ’s on-going Water Master Plan Update, a 2050 demand scenario was developed to evaluate the sensitivity of sizing of the City’s distribution system infrastructure to future demand increases for development beyond that identified by the 2040 General Plan. Th is demand scenario includes increased demand within the City’s current SOI, and potential demand outside of the City’s SOI t hat is currently anticipated to be served by Sacramento County.

For the sensitivity analysis, demands within the retail service area were projected through 2050, assuming the same growth rate beyond 2040. Demands were also included for future developments in the former Natomas Joint Vision Area, including Grand Park Specific Plan and Upper Westside Specific Plan, based on preliminary e stimates provided by the County. As noted above, it is currently anticipated that areas outside of the City’s SOI will be served by the County, and the purpose of the analysis is solely to evaluate the sensitivity of sizing for future infrastructure, should the City need to serve areas that are currently not anticipated to be served. Table 4 -4 shows the projected 2050 retail wa ter use. The total projected retail water use is 155,000 AF, with an equivalent average daily use of 138 MGD.

Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only Use Types that will be recognized by the WUEdata online submittal tool
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
(opt)
Single Family 46,913 47,491 48,069 48,647 51,098
Multi-Family 15,334 16,085 16,837 17,588 18,474
Commercial Includes Industrial Use Type 17,871 19,068 20,266 21,464 22,545 Institutional/Governmental 6,094 6,200 6,306 6,412 6,736 Landscape 5,087 7,144 9,200 11,257 11,824
Other Potable 2,366 4,054 5,742 7,430 7,804
Losses 13,767 13,767 13,766 13,766 14,460
107,432 113,809 120,187 126,564 132,942
Additional Description (as
needed)
TOTAL
Add additional rows as needed
* Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF).

Projected Water Use*
Report To the Extent that Records are Available

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Table 4-4. Projected 2050 Retail Water Use
Parameter Projected Demand, AF
Projected Average Day
Demand, MGD
Existing Retail Use(a) 91,867 82.0
Drought Rebound Factor for Existing Use(a) 9,187 8.2
Increase for Future Retail Use 38,266 34.2
Natomas Joint Vision Area Future Demand(b) 15,900 14.2
Airport South Industrial Area 643 0.6
Total 2050 Projected Retail Use 155,219 138.6
(a) The City’s on-going Water Master Plan Update used 2018 data for the existing retail use and drought rebound factor. (b) Includes estimated use for the Grandpark Specific Plan and Upper Westside Specific Plan for purposes of a sensitivity analysis but recognizing that the Natomas Joint Vision Area would require annexation into the City prior to receiving any water supply and services from the City of Sacramento.

4.2.3.2 Characteristic Five-Year Retail Water Use
The estimated retail water use for the next five years, following 2020, is summarized in Table 4 -5.

Projected water demands for 2021 through 2024 were estimated as a linear interpolation between the 2020 consumption by use type, reported in Table 4 -2, and the 2025 projected water use, reported in Table 4-3. The characteristic five -year wat er use does not assume drought conditions and will be incorporated into the DRA, further discussed in Chapter 7.

Table 4-5. Projected Five-Year Water Use for Retail Customers, AF Water Use Sector 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Single Family 44,918 45,417 45,916 46,414 46,913
Multi-Family 14,250 14,521 14,792 15,063 15,334
Commercial
(and Industrial) 16,361 16,739 17,116 17,494 17,871
Institutional (and
Governmental) 5,811 5,882 5,952 6,023 6,094
Landscape 3,342 3,778 4,214 4,651 5,087
Other 994 1,337 1,680 2,023 2,366
Losses 13,311 13,425 13,539 13,653 13,767
Total 98,987 101,098 103,209 105,320 107,432

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4.3 WHOLESALE WATER USE
The City’s water rights and supply facilities provide regional benefits by making water available to areas adjacent to the City. The City currently provides wholesale and wheeling service to a number of neighboring agencies. In general, wholesale water service is where the City sells water collected under the City’s entitlements to other agencies. Wholesale water deliveries are discussed below. Wheeling service is where the City diverts, treats, and conveys water to another agency using that agencies’ entitlements. Wheeled water is not considered a City water demand because it does not reduce the amount of water entitled to the City, and therefore wheeled water use is not included as a demand in this UWMP.

The City has historically delivered and has agreements to provide more than 3,000 AFY to wholesale customers. Therefore, the City is required to report the demands for wholesale customers separately from their retail customers in accordance with the DWR Guidebook. The wholesale customers are described in Chapter 3.

4.3.1 Historical Wholesale Water Use
The City’s historical water wholesale deliveries for 2016 through 2019 are summarized in Table 4-6.

Table 4-6. Historical Water Deliveries by Wholesale Agency, AF Water Use Sector 2016 2017 2018 2019
SCWA – Airport 428 427 655 903
SCWA – Zone 50 Metro Air Park 0 357 0 0
SSWD 423 1,301 0 6,402
Cal Am Arden 0 0 0 0
Cal Am Fruitridge 0 2 1 1
Cal Am Parkway 57 369 0 668
Cal Am Rosemont 49 4 371 492
Total 958 2,460 1,027 8,465

4.3.2 Current Wholesale Water Use
The City’s actual water wholesale deliveries for 2020 are summarized in Table 4-7.

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Table 4-7. Wholesale Demands for Potable and Non-Potable Water – Actual (DWR Table 4-1 Wholesale)

4.3.3 Projected Wholesale Water Use
In the future, the City may expand it s role as a wholesaler for the benefit of other water purveyors and their customers in the region. Projected wholesale demands were develope d in the on -going Water Master Plan Update and are based on two future supply scenarios: 1) probable estimate of fut ure wholesale demands; and 2) maximum estimate that assumes all water agencies within the American River Place of Use Boundary receive wholesale water. The probable estimate is based on other agencies’ master plans, communications that other agencies have had with the City, or by judgment of the City staff, as reported in the City’s on -going Water Master Plan Update. As discussed in Chapter 3, the City currently provides wholesale and wheeling service to several neighboring water agencies. A brief description of the POU boundaries is presented in Chapter 3.

For the purposes of this 2020 UWMP, it is assumed that the existing wholesale customers will take the probable estimate by 2030 and assumed that all wholesale customers within the American River POU Boundary will take the maximum estimate by 2040. Projected wholesale demands past 2040 are not expected to change. The interim years ar e linearly interpolated. Table 4 -8 summarizes the projected wholesale customer water use through 2045.

Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only use types that will be
recognized by the WUE data online submittal
tool
Additional Description
(as needed)
Level of
Treatment When
Delivered
Drop down list
Volume*
Sales to other agencies SCWA - Airport Drinking Water 712 Sales to other agencies SCWA - Zone 50 Metro Air Park Drinking Water 90 Sales to other agencies SSWD - Arden Drinking Water 390 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Arden Drinking Water 0
Sales to other agencies Cal Am Fruitridge Drinking Water 267 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Parkway Drinking Water 1,127 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Rosemont Drinking Water 1,022 3,607
2020 Actual
NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF). The City did not deliver water to Natomas Unified School District in 2020.

TOTAL
Add additional rows as needed
* Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

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Table 4-8. Wholesale Demands for Potable and Raw Water – Projected (DWR Table 4-2 Wholesale)

4.3.3.1 Characteristic Five-Year Wholesale Water Use
The estimated water use for the next five years, following 2020, is summarized in Table 4-9 for the City’s existing wholesale customers. Pro jected wholesale water use for 2021 through 2024 was linearly interpolated between the 2020 actual use and the projected 2025 water use. The characteristic five-year water use does not assume drought conditions and will be incorporated into the DRA, furthe r discussed in Chapter 7.

Use Type
Drop down list
May select each use multiple times
These are the only Use Types that will be recognized
by the WUEdata online submittal tool.
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
(opt)
Sales to other agencies SCWA - Airport 1,056 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 Sales to other agencies SCWA - Zone 50 Metro Air
Park 2,545 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
Sales to other agencies SSWD - Arden 1,945 3,500 14,782 26,064 26,064 Sales to other agencies SSWD - Northridge 0 0 2,130 4,260 4,260 Sales to other agencies Golden State Water Company 0 0 518 1,037 1,037 Sales to other agencies Del Paso Manor Water District 0 0 672 1,344 1,344 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Arden 457 913 1,384 1,855 1,855 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Fruitridge 4,479 8,692 8,692 8,692 8,692 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Parkway 2,803 4,480 6,258 8,036 8,036 Sales to other agencies Cal Am Rosemont 3,591 6,160 8,163 10,166 10,166 Sales to other agencies SCWA - Arden Park 0 0 2,106 4,211 4,211 Sales to other agencies SCWA - Zone 41 CSA
Wholesale 4,800 9,600 10,122 10,644 10,644
Sales to other agencies SCWA - Zone 41 NSA, CSA, and
SSA 6,661 13,321 12,836 12,350 12,350
Sales to other agencies Tokay Park 0 0 47 95 95
Sales to other agencies Florin County Water District 0 0 919 1,837 1,837 Sales to other agencies Natomas Unified School
District 69 69 69 69 69
28,406 53,135 75,098 97,060 97,060
Add additional rows as needed
Additional Description
(as needed)
Projected Water Use *
Report To the Extent that Records are Available
NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF). Projected wholesale water use estimates were developed in the on-going Water Master Plan Update. 2030 wholesale projected water use is equal to the probable estimate (average likely water delivery in the on-going Water Master Plan Update) of future wholesale demands. 2040 and 2045 wholesale projected water use is equal to the maximum estimate assuming that all water agencies in the American River Place of Use Boundary receive wholesale water. Interim years (2025 and 2035) were linearly interpolated. The City estimates that it will deliver approximately 69 AF to Natomas Unified School District.

TOTAL
* Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

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Table 4-9. Projected Five-Year Water Use for Existing Wholesale Customers, AF Water Use Sector 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
SCWA – Airport 781 849 918 987 1,056
SCWA – Zone 50 Metro
Air Park 581 1,072 1,563 2,054 2,545
SSWD 701 1,012 1,323 1,634 1,945
Cal Am Arden 91 183 274 365 457
Cal Am Fruitridge 1,109 1,952 2,794 3,637 4,479
Cal Am Parkway 1,462 1,797 2,133 2,468 2,803
Cal Am Rosemont 1,536 2,050 2,563 3,077 3,591
SCWA – Zone 41 CSA
Wholesale 960 1,920 2,880 3,840 4,800
SCWA – Zone 41 NSA,
CSA, and SSA 1,332 2,664 3,996 5,328 6,661
Natomas Unified School
District 69 69 69 69 69
Total 8,622 13,568 18,514 23,460 28,406

4.4 TOTAL WATER USE
Projected t otal annual retail water use in five -year increments through the year 204 5 is shown in Table 4-10. Recycled water demand is addressed separately in Chapter 6 (Section 6.5).

Table 4-10. Projected Total Retail Water Use (Potable and Non-Potable) (DWR Table 4-3 Retail)

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
(opt)
Potable Water, Raw, Other
Non-potable
From Tables 4-1R and 4-2 R
100,483 107,432 113,809 120,187 126,564 132,942
Recycled Water Demand
From Table 6-4 29 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Optional Deduction of
Recycled Water Put Into
Long-Term Storage1
TOTAL WATER USE 100,512 108,432 114,809 121,187 127,564 133,942 NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF). Table references refer to DWR table numbers. 1 Long term storage means water placed into groundwater or surface storage that is not removed from storage in the same year. Supplier may deduct recycled water placed in long- term storage from their reported demand. This value is manually entered into Table 4-3.

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Projected total annual wholesale water use in five -year increments through the year 204 5 is shown in Table 4-11. As will be discussed in Section 6.5, recycled water is not planned to be treated or distributed by the City to wholesale customers.

Table 4-11. Projected Total Wholesale Water Use (Potable and Non-Potable) (DWR Table 4-3 Wholesale)

4.4.1 Total Water Use Beyond 2045
To meet the 20-year planning requirement for future water supply assessments (Senate Bill 610), the City has decided to include demand projections to the year 2050 in its 2020 UWMP. The City’s projected 2050 retail demands are 155,000 AF potable water and 1,000 AF recycled water for a total retail demand of 156,000 AF. The City’s projected 2050 wholesale water demand is 97,060 AF. The future projections are anticipated to evolve over time with the implementation of conservation measures and will be reevaluated when long-range planning documents are updated.

4.5 DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM WATER LOSSES
System losses are the difference between the actual volume of water treated and delivered into the distribution system and the actual metered consumption. Such apparent losses are always present in a water system due to pipe leaks, unauthorized connections or use, faulty meters, unmetered services such as fire protection and training, and system and street flushing.

The City uses the American Water Works Association (AWWA) method to annually evaluate its distribution system losses on a fiscal year basis. For the 2020 fiscal year, the City’s water losses were estimated to be approximately 10,097 AF. Copies of the City’s Water Audit worksheets from Fiscal Years 2016 to 2020 are provided in Appendix E.

Table 4-12 summarizes the system losses for the las t five fiscal years. The most recent 12 -month period began on July 1, 2019.
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
(opt)
Potable and Raw Water
From Tables 4-1W and 4-2W 3,607 28,406 53,135 75,098 97,060 97,060 Recycled Water Demand*
From Table 6-4W 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WATER DEMAND 3,607 28,406 53,135 75,098 97,060 97,060 NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF). Table references refer to DWR table numbers.

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Table 4-12. Retail Last Five Years of Water Loss Audit Reporting (DWR Table 4-4 Retail)

Losses from the City’s wholesale water distribution system are included in the retail wat er distribution system reporting. The City’s distribution system for retail and wholesale customers is a single system and not separated. Therefore, Table 4-13 assumes a wholesale loss of 0 AF to avoid over counting system losses.

In addition, the City’s wholesale customers will report their individual system water losses in their UWMPs.

Table 4-13. Wholesale Last Five Years of Water Loss Audit Reporting (DWR Table 4-4 Wholesale)

At the time of preparation of this UWMP, DWR and the State Water Board are in the process of adopting water loss standards. This is discussed further in Chapter 9.

Reporting Period Start Date
(mm/yyyy) Volume of Water Loss 1,2
07/2015 9,856
07/2016 6,801
07/2017 8,391
07/2018 9,160
07/2019 10,097
NOTES: Units are in acre-feet (AF). Water loss audits are prepared based on the fiscal year.
1 Taken from the field "Water Losses" (a combination of apparent losses and real losses) from the AWWA worksheet.
2 Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

Reporting Period Start Date
(mm/yyyy) Volume of Water Loss 1,2
- -
1 Taken from the field "Water Losses" (a combination of apparent losses and real losses) from the AWWA worksheet.
2 Units of measure (AF, CCF, MG) must remain consistent throughout the UWMP as reported in Table 2-3.

NOTES: Water loss audit reporting for the City's wholesale customers is included in the Retail Water Loss Audit reporting as the City's water distribution system for wholesale and retail customers is a single system.

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4.6 WATER USE FOR LOWER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
This UWMP considers current adopted codes, plans, and other policies or laws to estimate water savings projections as shown in Table 4-14. It also includes projected water use for low income households in the City’s service area.

A lower income household has an income below 80 percent of an area median income, adjusted for family size. Projected water demands for low-income, single-family, and multi-family residential water uses are included in the total water demands described in Section 4.2.

The City is a member of SACOG and participates in the Regional Housing Needs Plan (RHNP) which allocates participating cities and counties their “fair share” of the region’s projected housing needs. The RHNP is updated every five years and provides the housing units that a city or county must plan for within a 7.5-year time period. The SACOG 2021 – 2029 RHNP was adopted March 2020. This information is used by cities and counties to update their General Plan Housing Elements.

The City’s 2021 – 2029 Housing Element includes the number of existing lower income households. The Housing Element indicates approximately 50 percent of the City’s househ olds are Low Income (17 percent), Very-Low Income (14 percent), or Extremely-Low Income (19 percent)7. Assuming that gross per capita water demand is equal for all residential housing units regardless of income , an estimated 29,199 AF (50 percent) of the City’s residential water deliveries in 2020 (58,399 AF) were to lower income households. More refined estimates for the distribution of water among different customers demographics will be possible upon completion of the City’s water meter program. The City assumes that lower income households will continue to represent approximately 50 percent of the City’s total residential customers through 2040, but is subject to change as demographic changes occur.

Table 4-14. Retail Only Inclusion in Water Use Projections (DWR Table 4-5 Retail)

7 City of Sacramento. January 2021. 2021 – 2029 Housing Element An 8-Year Housing Strategy Appendix H-1 Are Future Water Savings Included in Projections?
(Refer to Appendix K of UWMP Guidebook)
Drop down list (y/n)
Yes
If "Yes" to above, state the section or page number, in the cell to the right, where citations of the codes, ordinances, or otherwise are utilized in demand projections are found.

California Code of Regulations,
Title 23 Waters, Division 2 DWR,
Chapter 2.7 Model Water Efficient
Landscape Ordinance (MWELO),
updated 2015. (a)
Are Lower Income Residential Demands Included In Projections? Drop down list (y/n) Yes
NOTES:
(a) MWELO applied only to irrigation demand projections.

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4.7 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
Climate change has the potential to alter local cli matic patterns and meteorology. The City adopted the Sacramento Climate Action Plan (CAP) in 2012 to identify how the City and the broader commun ity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The CAP identifies strategies and actions to adapt to the effects of climate change. Example of strategies and actions include planning for mixed -use developments that encourage walking and biking, use of pub lic transit, or water conservation measures. The CAP was incorporated into the City’s 2035 General Plan. The City’s 2040 General Plan is currently under development.

As part of the 2040 General Plan, the CAP will be updated to be a standalone document to p rovide framework for GHG reduction and establish the City as a leader of climate action.

In December 2019, the Sacramento City Council approved a Climate Emergency Declaration acknowledging the threat of climate change and the need for climate action. The declaration commits the City to build on existing climate commitments and to accelerate municipal and community carbon elimination in the short term, with maximum feasible efforts to implement carbon reduction actions towards eliminating emissions by 2030 as much as possible, recognizing the goal can only be achieved through collaboration with regional partners as well as appropriate financial and regulatory assistance from state and federal authorities.

In 2020, the City participated in the ARBS to identif y supply -demand imbalances and climate change adaptation strategies specific to the American River Basin (Basin ). The ARBS evaluated projected future climate conditions as summarized below:
• Increase in average winter and summer temperatures
• Change in precipitation patterns
• Decrease in snow water equivalent
• Increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increase in air temperatures • Change in watershed runoff patterns
Through proactive adaptation management actions, the ARBS highlights ways for the region to alleviate climate change impacts.

As described above, the water demand projections included in this 2020 UWMP reflect current and on-going water use efficiencies and water conservation by the City’s water customers. The potential impacts of climate change of the City’s water supplies are described in Chapter 6.

The City is aware of additional climate change reports and studies that indicate the potential for noticeable impacts at a greater acceleration than may be described in the ARBS. This includes Calif ornia's Fourth Climate Assessment (2018), which states that impacts from climate change on water in reservoirs and groundwater in the Sacramento Valley are happening in the near term. The City continues to monitor a variety of sources addressing climate changes as it aligns its policies and water supply portfolio to adapt to the future.

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EXHIBIT 11
City of Sacramento
City Council - 2PM Report
915 I Street Sacramento, CA 95814
www.cityofsacramento.org
File ID: 2022-02041 12/6/2022 Consent Item 14.

Upper Westside Water Supply Assessment
File ID: 2022-02041
Location: Citywide
Recommendation: Pass a Motion to ratify a Water Supply Assessment (WSA) prepared for the Upper Westside project and direct that it be submitted to the County of Sacramento in accordance with Senate Bill 610 (Stats. 2001 chapter 643), referred to as SB610 or Cal. Water Code § 10910.

Contact: Brett Ewart, Supervising Engineer, (916) 808-1725, [email protected]; Sherill Huun, Engineering & Water Resources Division Manager, (916) 808-1455, [email protected]; Department of Utilities
Presenter: None
Attachments:
1-Description/Analysis
2-Water Supply Assessment
Description/Analysis
Issue Detail: Staff recommends Council ratify a WSA for the Upper Westside project, which is a potential development project in the unincorporated County of Sacramento. The proposed project lies within the boundary of water right entitlements maintained by the City of Sacramento.

California Water Code, § 10910 (g)(1) requires the governing body of the water system (City Council) to submit this assessment to the requesting party not later than 90 days from the date on which the request was received. Sacramento County has requested a water supply assessment be completed no later than December 31, 2022.

This action is limited to identifying that a legal source of water is available and does not approve development, dedicate infrastructure capacity, or obligate a water service from the City.

Staff have affirmed that the potential project area is within the legal boundaries of the City’s water

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File ID: 2022-02041 12/6/2022 Consent Item 14.
entitlements as contemplated within the currently adopted Urban Water Management Plan and adequate volume of water is present within those entitlements.

Policy Considerations: Not applicable.

Economic Impacts: None.

Environmental Considerations: The City action regarding the WSA is defined in Water Code section 10910. The County of Sacramento has determined that the Upper Westside project is subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and has requested the City to confirm the WSA.

The City is required to determine whether the projected water demand associated with a proposed project was included as part of the most recently adopted urban water management plan adopted pursuant to Part 2.6 (commencing with Section 10610). Water Code section 10910(c)(1). The action requested is an administrative activity that would not result in direct or indirect physical changes in the environment. The County has determined that an environmental impact report (EIR) will be prepared for the Upper Westside project; the EIR will identify and evaluate the potential effects of the Upper Westside project on the environment as provided for in CEQA.

Sustainability: Not applicable.

Commission/Committee Action: Not applicable.

Rationale for Recommendation: Presentation of a WSA is required by California Water Code, § 10910 (g)(1).

Financial Considerations: This has no impact to the General Fund.

Local Business Enterprise (LBE): Not applicable.

Background: The California Water Code (Water Code) requires coordination between land use lead agencies and public water purveyors. The purpose of this coordination is to ensure that prudent water supply planning has been conducted, and that planned water supplies are adequate to meet both existing demands and demands of planned development.

Water Code Sections 10910 - 10915 (inclusive) require land use lead agencies: 1) to identify the responsible public water purveyor for a proposed development project, and 2) to request a WSA from the responsible purveyor. The objective of a WSA is to demonstrate the sufficiency of a purveyor's water supplies to satisfy the water demands of a proposed development project while still meeting the current and projected water demands of existing customers. Water Code Sections 10910 - 10915 delineate specific information that must be included in a WSA.

The Upper Westside Specific Plan is located in unincorporated Natomas community of Sacramento

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File ID: 2022-02041 12/6/2022 Consent Item 14.

County between the Sacramento River and the I-5 freeway and North of the I-80. The Upper Westside Specific Plan area is bounded on three sides by the City of Sacramento. The area encompasses approximately 2,000 acres of proposed residential, commercial, schools, parks, urban farms/greenbelts and agricultural uses. The County of Sacramento is the land use lead agency and has identified (1) City of Sacramento (City) - Department of Utilities (DOU), (2) Sacramento County Water Agency (SCWA) and (3) Natomas Central Mutual Water Company (NCMWC) as three potential water purveyors. Each entity has been requested to prepare a WSA in accordance with Water Code Sections 10910 - 10915.

The City of Sacrmento processes WSAs upon request to determine if its planned water supplies are sufficient to meet the demands of new areas in addition to its existing and projected water supply obligations. The area addressed in this WSA lies within an area contemplated by the City’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan demand forecast and within the legal boundaries of the City’s water rights entitlements.

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File ID: 2022-02041 12/6/2022 Consent Item 14.

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File ID: 2022-02041 12/6/2022 Consent Item 14.

Figure 1 Upper Westside Specific Plan Area Location Map

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EXHIBIT 12
Aerosol Science and Technology, 45:1123-1134, 2011
Copyright © American Association for Aerosol Research
ISSN: 0278-6826 print/ 1521-7388 online
DOI: 10.1080/02786826.2011.582194
Very Fine and Ultrafine Metals and lschemic Heart Disease in the California Central Valley 1: 2003-2007
Thomas A. Cahill, 1,2 David E. Barnes,1 Nicholas J. Spada,1 Jonathan A. Lawton,1 and Thomas M. Cahi113
1DELTA Group, University of California, Davis, California, USA 2The Health Effects Task Force, Breathe California of Sacramento-Emigrant Trails, Sacramento, California, USA
3Division of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, Arizona State University West Campus, Phoenix, Arizona, USA
The enhancement of mortality associated with cardiovascular and specifically ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been observed in the southern California Central Valley since at least 1990, and it continues to be a major source of mortality. While there is a strong statistical association of IHD with wintertime PM2.5 mass, the causal agents are uncertain. Medical studies identify some po tential causal agents, such as very fine and ultrafine metals, but they have not been fully characterized in most Central Valley re gions. To provide improved information on specific and potentially causal agents, a five site aerosol sampling transect was conducted from Redding to Bakersfield during a 17-day period of strong stag nation, January 5-22, 2009. Mass and elemental components were measured every 3 h in eight particle size modes, ranging from 10 to 0.09 µ,m, while the ultrafine particles ( <0.09 µ,m) were col lected on Teflon filters. Ancillary studies were performed including direct upwind-downwind profiles across a heavily traveled sec ondary street near a stoplight. Very fine and ultrafine iron, nickel, copper, and zinc were identified as vehicular, with the most prob able sources being brake drums and pads and the lubrication oil additive zinc thiophosphate. High correlations, many with r2 > Received 7 August 2010; accepted 27 November 2010.

The authors first wish to gratefully acknowledge the support of the Resources Legacy Fund of Sacramento, California, for encouragement and financial support for this study.

The staff of all of the Air Resources Board (ARB) sampling sites were key to successful execution of the project.

The authors also wish to gratefully acknowledge the financial sup port of the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District under its CEO, Larry Greene.

The authors wish to acknowledge the input and oversight of the Health Effects Task Force (HETF) of Breathe California of Sacramento Emigrant under J ananne Sharpless, Chair; Betty Turner, consultant to the HETF, and especially members Ralph Propper and Earl Withy combe. Helpful suggestions and review were provided by William Wilson, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Address correspondence to Thomas A. Cahill, DELTA Group, Uni versity of California-Davis, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA.

E-mail: [email protected]

0.9, were found between these vehicular metals and IHD mortality, enhanced by the meteorology, terrain, and traffic patterns of the southern Central Valley. The braking systems of cars and trucks must now be considered along with direct exhaust emissions in estimating the health impacts from traffic.
[Supplementary materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Aerosol Science and Technology to view the free supplementary files.]

INTRODUCTION
The task of determining the causal factors that lie behind the statistically sound association of mortality with aerosols con tinues to labor under severe difficulties. Reliance on Federal Reference Method (FRM) methodologies, even if enhanced by periodic compositional analysis, does not provide enough in formation to allow health research scientists to identify causal factors (Lippmann 2009). Intensive research studies, which can provide such data, are so expensive as to limit their scope in space and time and thus pose problems with statistical signifi cance. An alternative is to identify regions with persistent and specific health impacts of suspected aerosol origins and then augment monitoring data and special studies to provide a suite of data from which causal factors may be identified. However, other factors such as meteorology, land use, and socioeconomic factors can often weaken the significance (Pope et al. 1995).

The California Central Valley, however, is a region of such ho mogeneity that such efforts there might be fruitful.

The southern part of the California Central Valley, the San Joaquin Valley, is the largest contiguous area of the United Sates in serious violation of both ozone (summer) and PM2.s (winter) ambient air quality standards. While the summer ozone levels are relatively uniform over the Central Valley, the winter PM 10 and PM2.5 concentrations vary strongly, from low in the northern Sacramento Valley to high in the southern San Joaquin Valley.

During individual winter stagnation episodes, the south to north 1123
Cahill -- 00000286
1124 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
(Bakersfield to Redding) mass ratio is up to a factor of 8 for PM10, and a factor of 5 for PM2.s.

In addition to improving monitoring data, a series of ex tensive research studies by and through the California Air Re sources Board (ARB), such as California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS 2001), Central Coast Ozone Study (CCOS), and Fresno Asthmatic Children's Environment Study (FACES), were initiated in 1999 through 2001 that greatly added to our knowledge of San Joaquin Valley aerosols. However, most field data were taken before the current understanding of aerosols and cardiovascular impacts was achieved (Devlin 2003, Lippmann 2009) and thus lack some critical measurements, es pecially ultrafine metals (Chow et al. 2006, 2007, 2008; Chen et al. 2007; Kleeman et al. 2009). One of the major results of these studies is an understanding that most of the PM2.s mass in the winter in the San Joaquin Valley is ammonium nitrate and wood smoke, neither of which are a known cardiovascular threat.

The mortality data in the entire Central Valley are relatively uniform for three of the four major causes of mortality, pul monary disease, stroke, and cancer, but the 4th and most impor tant, heart attacks from all causes, is higher by about 20% in the central and extreme southern California Central Valley [Cali fornia Department of Health Services (CA DHS) 2010] and es pecially in Bakersfield. For one specific and major component of heart disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), the incidence rises to about 35% (CA DHS 2010). In this research, we have measured some of the components of aerosols found by recent health studies most likely to be causal factors in this statistically strong association to cardiovascular disease, namely very fine and ultrafine metals, and size and compositionally-resolved or ganics (Cahill 2010), over the entire Central Valley, with the goal to enhance data from the earlier studies and provide additional material for future epidemiological analyses.

EXPERIMENTAL METHODS
Study Region Geography and Climatology
The Central Valley of California (Figure 1) has remarkable uniformity in terrain and meteorology. It is one of the richest agricultural areas in the world, with two major metropolitan areas, the Sacramento-Stockton and Fresno, with smaller cities of a few 100,000 to small towns spread throughout the Valley.

The Valley is a major transportation corridor for road and rail traffic but generally lacks strong industrial sources. There are active areas of oil extraction near and north of Bakersfield. The Central Valley offers an ideal situation to examine the effects of pollutants on health since many potential confounding factors, such as meteorology, land use patterns, socio-economic factors, and cigarette smoking, are very similar throughout the Valley (Cahill et al. 1998; note that the values in that report are slightly different in the present report since we have now available CORE Report #2 (1996), while the original report used CORE Report #1 (1994)).

Saa-am.mt.a
Valley
region
• N
1---1
100 lar.

FIG. 1. Map of the Central Valley of California. The northern part is referred to as the Sacramento Valley while the southern part is called the San Joaquin Valley. The areas within the dotted circumference vary in altitude from almost sea level in the Delta to a few hundred feet in elevation. The small arrows denote the typical winter wind patterns (Hayes et al. 1984 ). The cities marked were used in this study.

In summer, high temperatures in the Valley (mean daily high, July, 36°C ± 1 °C) lower the surface pressure and draw massive inputs of marine air into the Valley from the San Francisco Bay, bringing with it oceanic aerosols and typical urban pollutants enhanced by the major petrochemical industrial sites at the Car quinez Strait, between Sacramento and San Francisco. These winds often funnel south down the entire San Joaquin Valley, south of the strait, but less often funnel north up the entire Sacramento Valley, north of the strait. Rainfall in the Valley is rare during the period from May through October (Hayes et al. 1984).

In winter, the Central Valley air basin tends to become stag nant due to its flat valley floor and circumferential mountains, except at the Straits (Figure 1 ). There is slow drainage of cold air from the Sierra Nevada Mountains each night to the Valley floor (mean daily low, January, 3°C ± 1 °C). The air drains slowly, at the rate of about 50 km/day, from both the northern and southern ends of the valley towards the lowest point, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, southwest of Sacramento and directly east of the Carquinez Strait. This pattern results in persistent stagnation episodes that are periodically interrupted by synoptic storms.

Typical Pollution Patterns
The annual pattern of PM2.s mass reflects the effects of the winter stagnation, with elevated levels from about November through February (Figure 2). All valley sites have similar annual Cahill -- 00000287
METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 1 1125
90 ... 80
"' ~ 70 E
:S 60
:::i
~ 50
"' Q,
"' 40 E
~ 30
:: <.>
:i
20 10
0 ~il
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12
2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Monlh of lhe year 2002
FIG. 2. Annual pattern of PM2.s mass as seen at Fresno. patterns, high in winter and low in summer. The PM2.s peak seen in August was from a forest fire in Oregon. While the southern reaches of the Central Valley have serious violations of federal and state mass standards (ADAM 2010), other parts of the valley that share agriculturally based land uses and meteorology do not exhibit serious violations of these standards. For PM 10 mass, the ratio from Bakersfield in the south to Redding in the north can be as high as a factor of 9 in winter stagnation events, while for PM2.s, the ratio can be as high as a factor of 5 (ADAM 2010).

The pattern of winter air movement makes the high aerosol mass levels at Bakersfield difficult to explain, since the nighttime airflow into Bakersfield is from the mountains to the south, southeast, and east of the city. There is essentially no influence from the Los Angeles basin due to the blocking mountains. The air at Bakersfield then flows slowly north towards Fresno, which has generally lower PM2.s mass levels despite greater population and industry.

Epidemiological Data
Greatly improved data on mortality and morbidity became available circa 2001 from the California Department of Health Services (CA DHS 2010), which allow detailed analyses of death by hundreds of cause on an annual basis. These data show a persistent enhancement, 2003-2007, of IHD mortality of roughly 50% in the central region and at Bakersfield, at the extreme southern edge of the San Joaquin Valley, as compared with the northern valley (Figure 3).

Aerosol Sampling Methods
Aerosol samples were collected along a transect in the Cen tral Valley to investigate the causal factors behind the increased mortality due to IHD in the Central Valley of California. Since routine air quality measurements were available in this region, we collected and analyzed aerosols not routinely measured by existing monitoring programs that were known or suspected to be causal factors in cardiovascular disease. Further, we selected a period of stagnation that maximizes winter particulate mass 2!10
y= 00732x + 129.48
r2 = 0 2614
l
□------------------------(l 100 200 300 400 ~00 600 700 Distance from north end of Central Valley (km)
FIG. 3. IHD in the Central Valley of California, 2003-2007. Distances span from Redding in the north (0 km) through Chico (170 km), Sacramento (220 km), Fresno (400 km) to Bakersfield (680 km).
concentrations, avoiding the synoptic fronts and rain that pe riodically clean out the valley in winter. Using meteorological predictions, we simultaneously sampled continuously by size, time, and composition for 17 days starting on Jan 5, 2009, at five sites from the extreme north, Redding, to the extreme south, Bakersfield.

Rotating drum impactors (DELTA Group 8 DRUMs; Cahill
et al. 1985; Raabe et al. 1988) were used at all sites to provide continuous samples capable of 3-h data in eight impaction size modes from 10 to 0.09 µ,m diameter plus an integrating Teflon after filter. The impaction samples were collected onto Apiezon L greased Mylar stages (Wesolowski et al. 1977). Analyses were made for mass and elements from aluminum to molybdenum
plus lead by synchrotron-induced x-ray fluorescence (Bench et al. 2002). The quality assurance validations, including a year long inter-method comparison to ARB's FRM particular sam plers, are summarized in the supplemental information. For the ARB side-by-side over the entire year, agreement for PM2.s mass was better than ±10%, DRUM versus FRM, with the win ter agreement much better than that, a few percent, probably because of higher winter mass values. Note that 49 individual mass values from a DRUM with 3-h time resolution and 6 sub-

2.5-µ,m size cuts plus a <0.09 µ,m after-filter were required to match a single 24-h PM2.s mass value.

Aerosols destined for organic analyses were likewise col lected with DRUM samplers at the same time and locations as the elemental samplers. However, the organic samples were an alyzed averaging over the entire 17-day study, and the aerosols were collected onto fired aluminum substrates (Cahill 2010).

The study included three components, all conducted in win ter conditions and using the same equipment, including inte grating ultrafine Teflon filters: (1) an initial year-long study of the DRUM sampler side-by-side with the ARB's FRM at the Cahill -- 00000288
1126 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.

Sacramento test site at 13th and T Street to establish equiva lency of the sampling and analysis (Cahill and Barnes 2009), (2) a simultaneous transect across a heavily traveled secondary street to identify very fine and ultrafine aerosols from roadways, and (3) the main transect study in winter, 2009. Summaries of these studies are included in supplemental information.

For the transect study, samples were collected at five existing ARB and district monitoring sites covering the entire Central Valley (Figure 1 ):

Redding (roof of Health Department),
Chico (ARB Manzanita Avenue site),
Sacramento (ARB 13th and T Street site),
Fresno (ARB First Street site), and
Bakersfield (ARB California Street site).

Paired UC Davis DELTA Group 8 DRUM samplers were
used at all sites except Sacramento, which had to use a PM 2.s 3 DRUM for lack of equipment. One 8 DRUM was used at
each site for mass and elements (3-h time resolution), sampling onto lightly greased Mylar, and the other for organic matter (17- day average), sampling onto fired aluminum foils. All included identical Teflon ultrafine filters that integrated the entire 17-day period. The parameters measured at all sites include but are not limited to

1. time-averaged ultrafine particulate elemental composition, Al to Mo, plus lead, and mass, 0.09 > Dp > 0.0 µ,m aerody namic diameter,

2. time-dependent (3 h) mass and elements (see above) for the eight particle sizes 10.0-5.0, 2.5, 1.15, 0.75, 0.56, 0.34,

0.26-0.09 µ,m aerodynamic diameter,

3. time-averaged organic matter by size, 10.0-5.0, 2.5, 1.15,

0.75, 0.56, 0.34, 0.26---0.09 and <0.09 µ,m diameter, includ ing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), sugars (in cluding levoglucosan), fatty acids, and n-alkanes have been published (Cahill 2010).

RESULTS
Meteorology
After the sites were selected, deployment was delayed un til weather predictions indicated at least a 10-day period of low winds and stagnation, conditions that produce the highest PM2.s mass. The prediction was accurate and the meteorology was favorable and allowed us to extend the study to a 17-day period characterized by high mass values and persistent hazes (Table 1).

Aerosol Mass Values
PM10 mass values were available at all sites on January 19, while all sites except Redding had daily PM2.s mass values collected by the ARB and local agencies (ADAM 2010). The PM25 values were averaged over the entire 17-day study period ·--- P'M 10 mass. 1119 --+- Pll 211 man, 1119 -• · PM2_5 mass. study avg 100
90 1 80 E
.l:! 70 ..c ::,
u 60
iii so a.
.. 40 E
e 30 C)
e ,,
u 20 .,
i 10 II"
0 Redding
., .,
,.
r , , , , ,,
Chico Sai:ramento Fresno Bakersfield
Transect north to south
FIG. 4. PM2.s mass values were available every day, but only January 19th had PM10 mass at all valley sites. The high PM10 to PM2.s ratio on January 19 is unusual and unexplained.
and were typical of prior winter stagnation events (Table 2 and Figure 4 ). Looking in more detail, we can see that the north to south increase in average PM2.s mass is driven not as much by the increase in mass on a given day but the number of days that saw the high mass values.

Aerosol monitoring by state and local agencies with com positional data for PM2.s aerosols was only available at the Fresno site via the IMPROVE sampler (Malm et al. 1994 ).

The evolution of the aerosol event is shown in Figure 6, show ing that the study period would represent a winter day in vi olation of the PM2.s mass standard. The important role am monium nitrate plays during these aerosol episodes is clearly indicated.

Size-Resolved Mass and Inorganic Aerosols
For the period from January 5 through 22, over 6400 mea surements were made of mass and inorganic elements in nine size modes, measured every 3 h except for the integrating ul trafine filters. In addition, a simultaneous study (Cahill 2010) measured organic aerosols in four classes (alkanes, PAHs, .! It
l 10
1iH
il so
i 40
t ,e
~ 20
0 u 1tl
---- Bakersfield, - +- Fresno, _.,_ Sacramento, · • • Chico ' \
' , r
i o-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~...,....,
31 2 4 t 8: 11 12 14 16 18: 20 22 24 H
1 3 S 7 I 11 13 1 S 17 19 21 2S 25
January 2009
FIG. 5. PM2.s mass values before, during, and after the study period of January 5-22, 2009.

Cahill -- 00000289
METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 1 1127
TABLE 1
Summary of meteorological parameters during sample collection period of January 5-22, 2009. The values reported are the average over the entire aerosol sampling period except for rainfall, which includes the rain on the days of setup and take down, January 5 and 22
Parameter Redding
Average temperature (°C) 11.3
Average high (°C) 19.3
Average low (°C) 3.0
Relative humidity(%) 56.4
Average wind speed (m/s) 1.92
Rain (cm) 1.2
Number of rain events 4
Number of fog events 0
Average visibility (km) 14.6
sugars, and organic acids) in nine size modes at all sites. In this article, we focus on those particles that have the best support from the health literature as having the potential for causing or exacerbating IHD. Thus, we focus on only those insoluble par ticles in the very fine (0.26-0.09 µ,m) and ultrafine ( <0.09 µ,m) modes that are able to penetrate deeply into the lung and pass into the cardiovascular system. However, before we focus on these particles, we need to examine the overall aerosol behavior important to eventually isolate the sources of these particles.

Using the well-studied Fresno site, we can see that the size distribution roughly matches expectations with a few differences (Figure 7). In Figure 7, three points stand out. First, the DRUM sampler with its coated substrates operated well, with negligible soil mass penetrating into the accumulation mode as shown by the calcium results. Second, there is a distinct deviation in the size profile of iron, which shows an enhancement in the 1.15-2.5 µ,m size mode not seen in other soil elements. Third, potassium becomes enhanced in the finest modes, clearly from non-soil sources. It is also much finer in size than typical wood smoke, which almost always peaks in the 0.34-0.75 µ,m mode.

Examining the non-soil iron anomaly (Figure 8), the size and 3-h time data show enhancement in the 2.5-1.15 µ,m mode each night not seen in other soil elements and not seen at any other valley site. The very fine iron often tracks the fine iron, but sharp deviations occur, indicating complex source behavior.

Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield

9.6 9.0 9.4 10.6

15.5 16.1 15.4 16.5

3.7 1.7 3.2 4.4

71.6 73.4 71.8 66.4

1.27 0.47 0.62 1.17

2.2 2.5 1.2 0.1
3 3 2 2
2 11 2 2

12.3 7.1 6.9 6.6
Bakersfield lacks time information due to a system failure, and thus its behavior in time is unknown.

Further insight on zinc in Fresno can be obtained by examin ing zinc over most of a year (Cahill et al. 2003). The persistent presence of very fine zinc occurs throughout the entire year and becomes dominant in wintertime, closely associated with other vehicular aerosols. The zinc to very fine mass ratio was close to that seen in laboratory diesel tests (Zielinska et al. 2003).

Data on Very Fine and Ultrafine Aerosols
Very fine aerosols were collected on DRUM stage 8, 0.26 to

0.09 µ,m, and integrated over the 17-day study period to match the integrating ultrafine filters. Ultrafine aerosols were collected on the same 47-mm Teflon filters as the organic samples and av eraged over the same 17-day period. The filters were analyzed by scans of S-XRF every 0.5 mm across the filter diameter. All filters were uniform except for Chico, which had contamination on one edge. This was easily avoided by modifying the aver aging program. Two different averages were generated: one by summing the spectra, then analyzing and the other by averaging the typical eighteen individual elemental results.

In Table 3a, we show a summary time averaged DRUM very
fine data and, in Table 3b, the integrated ultrafine filter data for the study period.

TABLE 2
Mass values for PM10 on January 19 and PM2.s averaged from January 5 though January 22, 2009. The value of ~9 for PM2.s is estimated assuming the same PM10/PM2.s ratio as the other cities Site Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield
Size (µ,m) PM10 PM10 PM10 PM10 PM10
Mass (1/19) (µ,g/m3) 12 37 29 46 95
Size (µ,m) PM2.s PM2.s PM2.s PM2.s PM2.s
Mass average (µ,g/m3) ~9 27.3 30.2 40.9 51.0
Cahill -- 00000290
1128 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
.......- PM,, mus (IMPROVE!, ·.., · Organic carbon, . ..,.. • PM,_, mass (ARBI -• Ammonium nitrate -- Elemental c,nbon
60 ,---------------------------,
.! ,,,,✓----,
• 50 E I,-,-=-,
~~41 ,.,,~ ✓ \. .? 15 40 :,
(J
g_ 30
..
~ 20 ;;,
§ 10
i
/ '\ /
··········••r-••·······················\·~,...~··· . -: ,----•, ~ ., ' ✓~ ' ~
✓ ' ......
.... __ - ·-::-~ .... ·- ' ... .,,, - -- ..... ,._ __ ..... ~ ... --·-~---lt•-·-·-·-irr" .... --·~ ~ ..... - ~ 4 7 10 13 16 19 22
Jenuery 2009
FIG. 6. IMPROVE and ARB PM2.s data at the Fresno site during the study.

Note the dominance of ammonium nitrate in the mass maxima.

The values in bold represent vehicular sources identified in the next section of this article. The copper ultrafine values are suspect from contamination by copper containing filter holders.

Knorr is non-soil potassium, corrected by the Calcium content, and a standard IMPROVE tracer of wood smoke (Malm et al. 1994). MDL is minimum detectable limit. Uncertainties are nominally ±5%, and detailed quality assurance and uncertain ties are in the supplemental information.

The correlations of sulfur (ammonium sulfate) and selenium are driven by the oil extraction and refining near Bakersfield (Figure 10). But there are strong associations between many metals and IHD in both the very fine and ultrafine modes. Al though mass levels in the very fine and ultrafine modes are low, the concentration of metals was significant. Thus metals are a major contributor to particle numbers, many presumably in insoluble compounds. Examining spatial trends for very fine metals with known vehicular origins, we see at Bakersfield a clear north to south enhancement of many very fine metals that far exceeds the x 1.6 increase in PM2.s mass for the same period (Figure 9).
·•- Potauh.1m, • • • Calcium, -- Iron
,eo
.!l 5110 .,
E
14 400
::,
u
~ JGO
"' E
f 280
Cl!
'
0 C
"' 180 :z '-.
•·-· 0
<0.09 l.2i - 0.3 ◄ l.5i - 0.75 1.15 - 2:.5 5.0 to - 10
!Ul9 - l.2i 0.3 ◄ - 0.56 0.75 - 1.15 2.5 - 5.0
Particle aerodynamic diameter micrometers
FIG. 7. Size distribution for Fresno aerosols.
.. .. -;
E
u
:i:i ::,
" ... .

Q.
• E . ..

G
0 C
• :z
1200
1000
800
800
-400
200
._ 2.5 - 1.1~ iron, • • • 0.26 - 0.0& iron x 100
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1-4 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
January
FIG. 8. Fine and very fine nonsoil iron at Fresno. Recall that the study began directly after a rainfall event and had almost no winds to stir up dust. Thus we propose that most of the iron is roadway and vehicle derived.

The upward trend of sulfur must be interpreted in accord with the meteorology, which moves air from Bakersfield towards the Delta. Typical elements associated with vehicles include non soil iron, phosphorus, zinc, nickel, and copper. From the ratio present in the zinc thiophosphate in lubricating oil, there are clearly additional zinc sources present at all sites except perhaps Bakersfield.

In summary, there are significant contributions of metals in the very fine and ultrafine mode, many of which rise to their highest levels at Bakersfield (Figures 11 and 12) and correlate strongly with the IHD mortality data.

DISCUSSION
Sources of the Metals
The generation of metals in the ultrafine mode requires high temperatures and/or pressures. Thus, many sources of metals from vehicles, such as zinc from tire wear, are not candidates for sources ofultrafine aerosols. Two potential sources are engines, and especially diesel engines because of the high temperatures and pressures involved, and the braking systems in vehicles. .l! .

E 15
.!:!
..0 ::, u .. 10 .

0..
.
ti
15, 5
g . :z
Raddirtg Cllllico Sacreune..-0 Fre••o Bak.era1ield
Transect north to south
Nonsoil Iron
-,
Copper
•➔-1
Zmc
Phosphorus
-o~
FIG. 9. Very fine transition metals with known vehicular sources, zinc and phosphorus from zinc thiophosphate in lubricating oil, iron, copper, and zinc potentially from braking systems.

Cahill -- 00000291
METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 1 1129
TABLE 3a
Aerosol mass data from the study and their correlation to IHD mortality. Uncertainties are nominally ±5%, and detailed quality assurance and uncertainties are in the supporting materials. Concentration (ng/m3) of very fine (0.09 to 0.26 µ,m) aerosols Site Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield Correlation r2 to IHD Ammonium sulfate 45 82 75
Chlorine <0.4 2.5 1.8
Phosphorus <0.1 0.4 0.8
Potassium (non-soil) 18.0 54.1 10.9
Vanadium <0.1 0.03 0.04
Chromium <0.1 O.Ql 0.01
Iron (non-soil) 2.2 1.8 1.0
Nickel <0.03 0.03 0.07
Copper 0.7 0.6 0.16
Zinc 1.9 3.9 1.1
Arsenic 0.15 0.2 0.07
Selenium <0.1 <0.1 0.09
Bromine 0.5 0.7 1.3
Lead 0.1 0.4 0.4
While there is considerable information on the total par ticulate emissions from vehicles, the information on ultrafine metals from vehicular exhaust is limited (Kleeman et al. 2000; Zielinska et al. 2003, 2004). The Zielinska et al.'s (2003) study involved detailed analysis of diesel exhaust. As part of the study, we analyzed for 32 elements collected in 11 tests with a 14-stage nano-MOUDI (lowest stage 0.01 µ,m). Sulfur, phosphorus and the metals zinc, calcium, and, in one of the 11 tests, lead, all peaked generally in the 0.10-0.056 µ,m modes (Zielinska et al. 2003). In addition to elemental and organic carbon, the tracer elements were assigned to sources: sulfur was from the fuel 120 580 0.98

0.7 2.6 0.22

0.7 4.0 0.98
45 32.7 0.00

0.2 <0.1 0.04

0.6 0.2 0.04

2.3 15.5 0.95

0.05 0.16 0.95

0.27 1.1 0.47

4.9 12.5 0.88

0.54 1.07 0.87

0.10 0.24 0.95

1.1 4.2 0.98

0.55 2.0 0.97
(CA low sulfur), the zinc and phosphorus from the zinc thio phosphate stabilizer in the lubricating oil, and calcium from an antacid additive. No other transition metals were seen in statis tically significant amounts.

A second potential source of very fine and ultrafine metals is the braking systems of cars and trucks, since high tempera tures and/or pressures are involved in this process. The brake drums have evolved from the massive, heat-conductive struc tures and generally well cooled in the past and now are often made of "grey iron," roughly 90% iron with the admixture of a few percent carbon, plus copper, silicon, and other metals in TABLE 3b
Concentration (ng/m3) of ultrafine ( <0.09 µ,m) aerosols Site Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield Correlation r2 to IHD Ammonium sulfate 122 215 270 470 999 0.95
Chlorine 2.5 5.1 0.6 3.0 0.5 -0.38
Phosphorus 1.3 0.6 4.0 3.3 10.5 0.96
Potassium 40.7 138.1 76.9 176.1 70.9 -0.05
(non-soil)
Vanadium 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.21 0.02 0.00
Chromium 0.13 0.04 0.75 0.28 0.32 0.03
Iron (non-soil) 3.9 3.9 14.3 7.7 27.7 0.88
Nickel 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.70
Copper na na na na na na
Zinc 8.6 11.2 14.3 22.4 12.3 0.00
Arsenic 0.41 0.64 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.12
Selenium 0.47 0.64 0.62 1.1 0.9 0.05
Bromine 11.2 12.4 13.7 25.3 18.9 0.16
Lead 1.7 2.2 2.5 3.6 2.6 0.06
na: not available.

Cahill -- 00000292
1130 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
..... Potnslul'II, -- Sulfur (t'or amm.sulfat11. x 4.12t!} -- Chromium, ·-+ - Nickel, -- Lead, · ..__ Arsenic 300 4 --------------------~
2110
'.€ 200 ,,,
E
~ 1!10
g'
C
~ 100
CIO
0 L.__...J._ ___ -'---------'-----'-------'---'
R11ddlng Chico Sa~ra111•nto Fresno Bt1kersfi11ld
CA C•ntral Vall•y north to south transect
FIG. 10. Ultrafine potassium and sulfur.
smaller amounts, making them like brake pads an erodible sur face. Brake pads are far more complex in composition and are traditionally designed to erode.

Limited information is available on a complete inventory of vehicular expendables. An early one was developed as a part of the extensive California freeway lead and particulate studies in the 1970s. In Cahill and Feeney (1973), the UC Davis vehicle fleet was studied for all forms of expendables, including fuel, oil, brake wear, exhaust train erosion, tires, etc., by directly mea suring mass loss at replacement intervals. While many of the results are uncertain due to technological changes in the fuels and engines, measurements of brake drums and brake pads gave ~5 and 108 gm, respectively, at a replacement cycle of 58,400 km, or < 1 and 15 mg/km. However, these data were based on asbestos-containing brake pads and may not be reliable, which also impacts the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PARTS model estimate of 20.6 mg/km, based on 1985 data.

In terms of brake drums, changes in brake drums from iron to "grey iron" containing graphite could materially increase that source of particles from prior values. Even with the uncertain ties, it is clear that brakes contribute a significant component of typical vehicle total emission rates. However, averages are mis leading because braking is only used for limited times. Thus the emission rates at stoplights and especially extensive mountain 30 2(1
i
20 E
~ 1!!
"' 0
C:
"' 10 z
5 0
---- Phosphorus, ·-+-- Iron (nonsoll~ ......,_ Zinc
'
• f
~·~- ,' / --~ --.///
-----······----R•dding Chieo Sa~rn,tnto Fresno Bakersfield CA Central Valley north to south transect
FIG. 11. Typical vehicular ultrafine metals.
j
C>
E 3 u
:.0
::I
u
ii 2 a. .,
E
! OI
0 C .. z
0 Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield
CA Central Valley north to south transect
FIG. 12. Additional ultrafine elements.
down grades will be much higher than these values. It is worth noting that traditional dynamometer studies and roadside side studies near freeways are likely to miss brake wear as an emis sion source, thus these emissions may be largely unrecognized by the majority of vehicle emission and assessment studies.

Information on brake pad composition was reviewed by
Kennedy et al. (2002) and Chan and Stachowiak (2004). The lat ter report, "A multitude of different brake pads have sprung onto the market in the post-asbestos brake pad revolution, each with their own unique composition," often proprietary. Brake pads comprise four subcomponents: (1) frictional additives, abra sives, and lubricants; (2) fillers; (3) a binder; and (4) reinforcing fibers for strength. The brake pads are described as metallic, semimetallic, with organic components, and organic. Asbestos to be used mainly as a reinforcing fiber in brake pads, and after its removal, a variety of materials have been used, including iron fibers. Some of them include potentially hazardous materi als potassium titanate and sepiolite, a magnesium-silicon com pound, both of which have potential health hazards. Organic aramaid fibers (e.g., Kelvar) and ceramics such as alumina and carbides are becoming more popular as prices decline. Fillers include a wide variety of organic (cashew hulls, old tires) and inorganic materials (barium sulfate is popular). The frictional components include graphite and metal sulfides including cop per, antimony, tin, zirconium, and lead. Copper in particular has been identified as a problem in aquatic systems, and legislation to remove it from brake pads has been passed in the states of Washington and California.

While there is enormous variability in the data, as shown by the percentile distributions, the four main elements are iron, copper, zinc, and nickel (Table 4). In summary, there is a wide variety of very fine and ultrafine metals that may arise from brake drums and pads, but iron and copper are clearly two major components.

Information on ambient and near source very fine and ultra fine metals was derived from two additional studies in Sacra mento. The first was a complete analysis ofultrafine ( <0.09 µ,m) Cahill -- 00000293
METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 1 1131
TABLE 4
Summary of concentrations of elements in New Zealand
brake pads, from largest to smallest concentrations of
transition metals plus heavier elements. The distributions are shown to emphasize with wide variability between
manufacturers
Element (ppm) 10th percentile Median 90th percentile
Iron 11,700 18,300 190,000
Copper 29 5000* 116,000
Zinc 127 1630 37,400
Nickel 44 342 652
Manganese 143 315 1088
Lead 6 50 949
Barium 558 3195 6144
*Preferred interim median for copper due to high variability.

Barium (median = 3100 ppm) was not resolved in our data due to interferences.
aerosols over a 2-week period, November-December, 2007, as part of an 8-month DRUM to FRM intercomparison with the California ARB in central Sacramento at the 13th and T Street ARB site (Cahill and Barnes 2009, supplementary materials), and the second was a 2007 study directly measuring aerosols across a heavily traveled (65,000 v/day, 1.5% diesels) secondary street in Sacramento, Watt Avenue (Cahill et al. 2007, supple mentary materials).

One period in the Sacramento ARB intercomparison in
November and December was chosen for mass closure through addition of surrogate organic measurements (Cahill et al. 1989; Malm et al. 1994 ). As anticipated, most of the ultrafine mass is organic (Table 5). Note also that the only nondetermined major species, nitrate, could not have been a major factor in Sacra mento or the agreement would not have been as robust. Farther south in the San Joaquin Valley, nitrates are always a major fac tor. The presence of the fine transition metals in these quantities represents a very large number of particles. Note that the zinc value seen in Sacramento in 2007, 11.5 ng/m3, is similar to the transect zinc value in 2009, 14 ng/m3•
The second study was performed at Watt Avenue, the site of several studies on the impact of Watt Avenue on Arden Middle School (Cahill et al. 2007, supplementary materials). The Watt Avenue study utilized the same sampler as the ARB study, with two identical eight stage DRUM samplers with greased Mylar substrates and a47-mm stretched Teflon after filter for the <0.09 µ,m ultrafine mode. The school sampler was 15 m downwind from the nearest traffic lane on the roof of the one story building and 50 m south of a stoplight on Arden Way that backed traffic up to and south of the Arden Middle School site. Thus consid erable braking occurred directly upwind of the Arden Middle School sampler. The far upwind sampler was 500 m away in a residential neighborhood. Samples were collected continuously Phosphorus
--. nonsoil Iron
--· Copper
Zin<:
-♦•
Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield
FIG. 13. Very fine plus ultrafine aerosols with known vehicular sources. over 8 weeks in February and March, 2007. The results of these studies are shown in Table 5.

Through the direct upwind downwind measurements across
Watt Avenue, the source of the metals seen in downtown Sacra mento can also be shown to be largely derived from traffic sources despite the fact that the nearest freeway to the 13th and T Street site is over 1 km away.

Almost identical values of the same four elements are seen in Sacramento and especially in Bakersfield (Table 6 and Figure 13).

Since the ultrafine four elements, non-soil iron, nickel, cop per, and zinc, and a few others, are traffic related, we can ex amine the mass levels in the Central Valley to see how the levels correspond to traffic. Since the wind flows downslope across Bakersfield from the south, where 1-5 descends from the Grapevine and Hwy 58 descends from Tehachapi Pass, we used the sum of the cars plus 10 times the trucks, to roughly match to emission rates, and compared the ratio of traffic to PM2.s at the ends of the Valley and across the Chico and Fresno lateral transects for 1-5 plus Hwy. 99. For the valley ends, the traffic ra tio was 4.6 and the aerosol ratio 4.4, while for the central lateral transect, traffic was 2.1 and the aerosol was 1 .4. Therefore the PM2.s mass values in the study were similar to the local traffic volumes, and the ultrafine metals at Bakersfield are from the two major highways south of Bakersfield climbing and descending the mountain passes.

Support for this hypothesis comes from historical data taken in Bakersfield in winter, 1974-1976 (Cahill and Flocchini 1974; Flocchini et al. 1976). The historical data show that particulate pollution from cars was high in Bakersfield in the 1970s data.

Lead levels at Bakersfield, population circa 75,000 in 1975, in the average winter period were higher on average than in parts of the Los Angeles urban area. This is a clear indication that the local meteorology and geographical setting of Bakersfield results in it being highly impacted by vehicular sources, most likely vehicles on 1-5 and Hwy 58 as they climb out of or descend into the valley.

Cahill -- 00000294
1132 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.

TABLE 5
Measured and reconstructed ultrafine mass and elemental components in two studies in Sacramento, 2007. Watt 0.5 km is 500 m upwind; Watt 15 mis downwind. Sac Center is the ARB 13th and T Street site. There are no elemental carbon data or nitrate data, so the reconstructed mass is incomplete
Watt ave. upwind ( ~ 0.5 km)
Major components {-lglm3
Mass (gravimetric) Na
Mass (recon.) Na
Organics (H) Na
Sulfur (ammonium sulfate) 0.09
Chlorine (NaCl) 0.00
Soil 0.04
K non-soil (wood smoke) 0.04
Metals 0.01
Minor components ng/m3
Phosphorus 1.1
Vanadium 0.06
Chromium 2.2
Iron (non-soil) 5.2
Nickel 0.3
Copper 0.1
Zinc 1.2
Arsenic 0.16
Selenium 0.10
Bromine 0.8
Lead 0.5
Examining the current IHD mortality data from Figure 3, we observed that if we remove a totally arbitrary average back ground IHD mortality rate of 120 from the total rate ( about 2/3 of the valley average rate), and matching the Bakersfield result, the excess IHD mortality roughly scales with local truck traffic on the major freeways (CalTrans 2010) and the very fine-ultrafine iron (Figure 14).

The pattern reflects the pattern that the two major north-south freeways, 1-5 and Hwy 99, come close to each other only Watt ave. downwind (15 m) Sacramento center
{-lglm3 {-lglm3
Na 2.04
Na 2.15
na 1.72

0.18 0.34

0.00 0.04

0.08 0.048

0.14 0.053

0.09 0.035
ng/m3 ng/m3

1.0 2.4

0.18 0.15

1.3 0.45

34.9 17.0

16.3 3.5

9.8 8.3

17.3 11.5

0.46 0.6

0.13 0.3

1.1 3.7

2.3 4
at Sacramento-Stockton and Bakersfield. Note that car traf fic has a very different pattern because of the large auto mobile traffic on local Sacramento highways. When ultrafine aerosols alone are correlated with IHD mortality for the en tire Central Valley, the highest correlations are for phosphorus (r2 = 0.96) and iron (r2 = 0.88), both with known vehicular sources.

The association of IHD with toxic organic contaminants, specifically benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and coronene (Cahill 2010), TABLE 6
Very fine and ultrafine metals with known vehicular sources Site Redding Chico Sacramento Fresno Bakersfield
Class Very fine + ultrafine Very fine+ ultrafine Very fine + ultrafine Very fine + ultrafine Very fine+ ultrafine Size 0.26-0 f-lm 0 .26---0 f-lm 0.26-0 f-lm 0.26-0 f-lm 0.26-0 f-lm Species
Phosphorus 1.3 1.0 1.2 4.0 14.5
Iron 6.1 5.7 15.3 10.0 43.2
Nickel 0.9 0.13 0.67 0.35 1.8
Copper 4.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.6
Zinc 10.5 15.1 15.4 27.3 24.8
Cahill -- 00000295
METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 1 1133
-- AADTTruck trmnc m~or highways, ·• Iron (vf + uf) (nl)lm' '1000) CONCLUSIONS • .. Sc•l•d lechemle heart dlUHI mortality
!50,--------------------~
RtddinQ Chlto Sacramento Fruno B1ktrtfleld
Central Valley tan ■ ect north to aouth
FIG. 14. Association between local average annual daily truck (AADT) traffic on major freeways, scaled ischemic heart disease, and very fine plus ultrafine iron.
was examined but the pattern did not produce a fit to the IHD increase (Figure 15). The relatively high values of BaP at Chico in winter, observed for years in prior CARB toxics data reported in the ADAM database (ARB ADAM 2010), was traced to the burning of primarily pine wood.

Coronene is normally associated with the exhaust of auto mobiles, while BaP has known vehicular sources (diesels and cars) as well as wood smoke (Fujita et al. 2007; Riddle et al. 2007; Kleeman et al. 2009; Cahill 2010). The non-soil, nonwood smoke potassium was also observed by Gertler et al. (2003) in the Tuscarora Tunnel studies from light duty vehicles, but not from diesels. Thus, there appears to be a spark emission source of potassium and coronene in the very fine/ultrafine. A south valley enhancement was also seen in petroleum derived alka nes (Cahill 2010), which were present in the largest amounts in Fresno, lesser amounts in Bakersfield, and negligible elsewhere.

In summary, it does not appear that organic aerosols from wood smoke, diesels, and automobiles are a component in the IHD excess.
- • - B&nzo1alp)'l'1lno/3, -- Potassium (nonsoil} (ngtm• I. -+- Coronon& (x 2) ?01 ,----------------------,
' --~-----~---~-~---·
Redding Chico Sacram&nto Frnsno Bal(orsfi&ld
North to south transect
FIG. 15. Comparison ofultrafine BaP, potassium, and coronene.

Persistent enhancement of mortality associated with cardio- vascular and specifically IHD has been observed in the southern San Joaquin Valley since 1990, yet while there is a strong sta tistical association with mass, most of the mass is known to be relatively innocuous to the cardiovascular system. Most of the mass is ammonium nitrate, which is soluble in lung fluid. This makes ammonium nitrate unlikely as a source of cardiovascular disease. In order to examine potential causal agents, a profile was made of mass, inorganic, and organic components of mass in nine size modes, including ultrafines <0.09 µ,m, at five sites from Redding to Bakersfield during a 3-week period of strong stagnation, January 5-22, 2009. The strongest correaltions to IHD mortality were found in very fine (0.26-0.09 µ,m) to ul trafine metals, with most tied to vehicular sources. This result is supported by several independent lines of reasoning. First, there is an association with truck traffic and IHD throughout the Valley. Second, the four key transition elements, non-soil iron, nickel, copper, and zinc, are closely tied to vehicular sources through upwind-downwind measurements at Watt Avenue, a
secondary artery in suburban Sacramento. Third, the same four elements are found at the downtown ARB 13th and T Street site.

Fourth, there are known diesel sources of zinc and phosphorus, from zinc thiophosphate in lubricating oil, plus calcium as an antacid. No iron, nickel, or copper were seen in the diesel dy namometer tests, so these elements are not coming from engine wear. Conversely, brake pads include many elements, includ ing iron, nickel, copper, and zinc. The Watt Avenue data were taken just south of a stoplight, so braking was occurring. Heavy braking also occurs on the 1-5 "Grapevine" and Highway 58 downgrades, each more than a 1000 m descent, and both carry heavy truck traffic into Bakersfield, where the same elements are seen again correlating with increased rates of IHD.

Thus, in summary, we present here evidence that, while not conclusive, strongly supports the hypothesis that very fine and ultrafine transition metals are a causal factor in IHD in the Cen tral Valley of California. Removal of zinc thiophosphate from lubricating oil could greatly reduce the zinc concentration, while changes in brake drums and pads could reduce the non-soil iron, copper, zinc, and nickel concentrations in ambient air. After a 15-year fight that surfaced with concerns about the San Fran cisco Bay, on October 5, 2010, Governor Arnold Schwarzeneg ger signed SB346, which requires brake pad manufacturers to reduce the use of copper to not more than 5% by 2021 and no more than 0.5% by 2025. The reasons were based on the toxicity of copper in water run-off from roads and follows similar action by Washington State.

Finally, it is clear that the lack of correlation between PM2.s (or PM1.o) composition and very fine and ultrafine aerosol composition makes measurements of the composition of very fine and ultrafine particles critical for obtaining causal relations to health impacts, both for organic and inorganic species.

Cahill -- 00000296
1134 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.

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Zielinska, B., Goliff, W., McDaniel, M., Cahill, T., Kittelson, D., and Watts, W. (2003). Chemical Analyses of Collected Diesel Particulate Matter Sam ples in the E-43 Project. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, COLORADO.

Zielinska, B., Sagebiel, J., McDonald, J. D., Whitney, K., and Lawson, D.

R. (2004). Emission Rates and Comparative Chemical Composition from Selected in-use Diesel and Gasoline Fueled Vehicles. J. Air Waste Manage.

Assoc., 54:1138-1150.

Cahill -- 00000297

EXHIBIT 13
AR002810
Aerosol Science and Technology, 45:1135-1142, 2011
Copyright © American Association for Aerosol Research
ISSN: 0278-6826 print/ 1521-7388 online
DOI: 10.1080/02786826.2011.582196
Very Fine and Ultrafine Metals and lschemic Heart Disease in the California Central Valley 2: 197 4-1991
Thomas A. Cahill, 1,2 David E. Barnes,1 Earl Withycombe, 2 and Mitchell Watnik3 1DELTA Group, University of California, Davis, California, USA 2The Health Effects Task Force, Breathe California of Sacramento-Emigrant Trails, Sacramento, California, USA
3The Statistical Laboratory, University of California, Davis, California, USA The southern part of Central Valley of California in winter has long had high PM10 mass, which until about 1990 included sul fate, vanadium, and nickel from the burning of crude oil used to generate steam to enhance heavy petroleum recovery. In roughly 1990, natural gas became the major energy source used for steam generation. In 1989-1991, data were collected throughout Cali fornia on the mortality from strokes and ischemic heart disease (IHD). Although no spatial variability was seen for strokes, the southern San Joaquin Valley was found to have IHD mortality rates roughly 60% greater than the rest of the valley. PM10 was statistically identified as the major factor associated with the IHD mortality. However, when the rate of IHD was reexamined in the 2003-2007 period, a sharp reduction, about 30%, was seen in the relative rates for southern San Joaquin Valley as compared with the northern Sacramento Valley. We have measured very fine and ultrafine vanadium and nickel aerosols in a winter experiment in 2009, which shows an order of magnitude reduction in vanadium and nickel aerosols as compared with the pre-1990 data, which is a consequence of the switch from burning crude oil to natural gas to generate the steam. The inference of a causal relationship between the reduced vanadium and nickel and the improved IHD rate is supported by a growing body of laboratory and epidemio logical work on the toxicity of vanadium and nickel, including from oceangoing ships burning crude or residual oil.

Received 14 October 2010; accepted 27 November 2010.

The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the input and over sight of the project by the ALASET Health Effects Task Force under Jananne Sharpless, Chair, and Betty Turner, ALASET liaison, HETF members Tom Cahill, Mel Knight, Michael Lipsett, Ralph Propper, Marc Schenker, Steve Van den Eden, and Earl Withycombe, as well as the suggestions of William Wilson, US EPA. The authors also wish to gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District under its CEO, Norm Covell, and the Yolo-Solano AQMD, under its CEO, Larry Greene.

Finally, the authors wish to thank Ms. Jeanette Martin for her untiring assistance in designing and assembling the original report.

Address correspondence to Thomas A. Cahill, DELTA Group, Uni versity of California-Davis, One Sheids Ave., Davis, CA 95616, USA.

E-mail: [email protected]

INTRODUCTION
The Central Valley of California is well known for exhibiting in much of its area serious violations of federal PM10 , PM2.s, in winter, and ozone standards, in summer, matching or exceeding those seen for any commensurate area of the United States. Yet other parts of the valley share agriculturally based land uses and meteorology and do not exhibit serious violations of these stan dards. Although efforts continue to control particulate matter (PM) and ozone violations, this pollutant gradient offers an ideal situation to examine the effects of pollutants on health. Many of the confounding variables seen in comparison studies, such as meteorology, land use patterns, and cigarette smoking, are very similar throughout the Valley, and a wealth of data exists on the pollutants and their sources from district air monitoring and Air Resources Board (ARB) studies. The presence of detailed anal ysis of mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke during 1989-1991 reported by the Cardiovascular Disease Out reach and Epidemiology (CORE) Program (Kao et al. 1994) and the California Department of Health Services (CADHS 2010) provides a natural opportunity to compare the pollutant data and mortality data for the identical time ranges. While this ar ticle focuses on PM effects, the original report (Cahill et al. 1998) also examined the effects of ozone and carbon monoxide (CO) on IHD and stroke mortality; some of which are presented in this article for completeness. However, complexities in the spatial and temporal gradients of ozone require further inter pretation, and thus, they are not examined in any detail in this article.

BACKGROUND
The northwest-southeast trending 550 km by 100 km Cen
tral Valley of California is one of the richest agricultural ar eas in the world (Figure 1). In addition, there are two major metropolitan areas in the Valley, the Sacramento-Fresno regions each with about 1 million residents, and otherwise towns are generally medium (circa a few 100,000) to small and spread 1135
Cahill -- 00000277
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1136 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
1----1
1001:.m
FIG. 1. Map of the Central Valley of California. The northern part is referred to as the Sacramento Valley while the southern part is called the San Joaquin Valley. The areas within the dotted circumference vary in altitude from almost sea level in the Delta to a few I 00 m in elevation. The small arrows denote the typical winter wind patterns (Hayes et al. 1984).
throughout the Valley. The mean population density is about 60 people/km 2•
High summer temperatures in the Valley (mean daily high, July, 36°C ± 1 °C) lower the surface pressure and draw massive inputs of cool air into the Valley from the San Francisco Bay area, bringing with it oceanic aerosols and typical urban pollu tants enhanced by the major petrochemical industrial sites at the Carquinez Strait. These latter sources lie directly in the path for the cold, dense winds from the San Francisco Bay. These winds funnel down the entire San Joaquin Valley, south of the strait, but rarely penetrate north very far in the Sacramento Valley, north of the strait. Rainfall in the Valley is rare during the period from May through October.

In winter, there is slow drainage of cold air off the Sierra Nevada to the Valley floor (mean daily low, January, 3°C ± 1 °C) and then, at the rate of about 50 km/day, the air drains toward the lowest point, the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, directly east of the Carquinez Strait. Thus, little impact from the San Francisco Bay area is seen on most winter days in the Central Valley beyond the immediate Delta region. Winter rainstorms and strong northwest winds periodically clean out the Valley.

Thus, the Valley tends to fall into two distinct and very different conditions: hot, dry summers with strong diurnal winds, and cool, foggy winters with long periods of stagnation. This results in two very different aerosol types: summer and winter (Figure 2).

In Figure 2, 24 h, one day in six PM10 mass at the Fresno 1st Street "Super-site" is shown (ADAM 2010). The site is in a largely residential neighborhood roughly 1 km east of the 2 3 4 s 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month of th• Year 2002
FIG. 2. PM10 mass at the Fresno "Super-site", 2002.
nearest major freeway, well away from agricultural operations. It is thus a good representation of what the average Fresno resident inhales. The annual pattern of PM10 mass has been consistent in the valley for many years, but this data only really became available around 1997, hence why Figure 2 uses more recent data to demonstrate the traditional annual cycle of particulate mass.

The health effects data are derived from CORE (Kao et al. 1996) and CADHS (2010). CORE collected city (>20,000 in habitant) and countywide data on mortality from stroke and IHD; the latter is the largest source of mortality in the Califor nia Central Valley accounting for about one fourth of all deaths.

The CORE data were corrected for age, > 35 years, and reduced to incidence per 100,000 residents. The results were then pre sented as a ratio to the California average values the both males and females. Individual city data were weighted and averaged to obtain countywide averages in order to match the air pollution data.

The effect of race was examined over the entire California dataset. The data were available only in three classifications:
"White," "Black," and "Other," with "Other" in the Central Val ley being largely Latinos. No statistically significant difference was seen in the IHD rates for the dominant > 75 years age group, but a slight enhancement of the rates for Blacks was seen in the 64- to 75-year cohort. For all ages, the mortality/100,000, 95% confidence limit, was 196 ± 3 for white males, 212 ± 9 for black males, and 199 ± 4 for other males; the corresponding values for females were 127 ± 3, 166 ± 5, and 135 ± 3. The stroke deaths, on the contrary, while only roughly one third of the rate of IHD mortality, showed stroke rates roughly twice as high for the "Black" and "Other" cohorts than the "White" cohort. Consideration was given to cigarette-smoking patterns, but no significant difference was seen along the length of the Valley (Table 1).

Four metrics for air pollution were studied, each with very different cardiovascular impacts: ozone (top 30 h and hours above 0.09 ppm), annual average CO, and annual average PM10 .

The approximate cigarette-smoking patterns were calculated Cahill -- 00000278
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METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 2 1137
TABLE 1
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality versus air pollutants in the Central Valley of California, 1989-1991 IHD rate vs. Stroke rate vs.

County (north CA average CA average Ozone top 30
to south) (%) (%) h (ppm)
Shasta -14 +9 0.095
Butte -27 -3 0.078
Sutter -4 +26 0.090
Placer -17 -4
Sacramento -6 +2 0.107
Yolo +2 +13
San Joaquin +15 +17 0.096
Stanislaus -7 -3 0.102
Madera +11 -23
Fresno +3 -12 0.129
Kings +17 +20 0.106
Tulare +22 +8 0.093
Kern +33 -11 0.111
from cigarette sales data. Correlations were calculated for all parameters and are presented in Table 2 and Figures 3 and

4. At some sites, measurements were lacking. No data were deleted.

To further investigate the statistical robustness of these data, we used "proc glm" on SAS version 9.1 for the analyses. Be cause there are only 13 observations in total, we did not feel that imputation would prove fruitful. Therefore, we ran mul tiple regression models with "percentage change of IHD" and "percentage change of stroke" as the outcome variables. The possible explanatory variables were "number of hours of ozone above 0.09 ppm" ("ozone"), "annual average PM less than 10 /lm, measured in micrograms per cubic meter" ("PM10"), and "percentage rate of smoking" ("smoking"). We checked the assumption of normality of the errors by formally using the Shapiro-Wilk test and the assumption of homoskedasticity in formally using residual plots.

The overall stroke model was not significant (p = 0.1108). We did not proceed further for that outcome. However, the overall IHD model was significant (p = 0.0330). We used backward elimination as the model selection strategy, for example, that ofNeter et al. (1996). Ozone and smoking were eliminated-in that order-leaving PM10 as the sole significant explanatory variable (p = 0.0026). The resulting linear regression is given PM10 annual
Ozone hours CO annual average Smoking rate
>0.09 (h) average (ppm) (/lg/m 3) average(%)
20 0.54 30 22.4
6 0.93 38 22.4
4 44 22.8
125 30 22.8
153 1.29 44 23.4
16 30 22.4
36 1.13 51 22.8
119 0.75 48 22.0
30 53 22.0
369 0.87 77 22.0
21 61 22.5
192 0.88 67 22.5
605 0.80 68 22.5
by
estimated percentage change of IHD = -41.5 + 0.87 x PM10 , and the corresponding r-squared value is 0.576. It is noteworthy that Fresno appears to be an outlier. If this point is removed, the slope and r-squared values jump dramatically. We have no cause to remove that point and we therefore use the model, as indicated earlier, as our finding. However, the Fresno value includes semirural sampling sites at the urban fringe that are not present in other San Joaquin Valley cities, which had at that time only a single city center site.

However, the strong association between aerosol mass and IHD posed a problem. As additional data were developed in the Central Valley from the IMPROVE program (Malm et al. 1994) and from extensive California studies (CRPAQS 2001, Cahill et al. 2003), it became clear that the major aerosol species that dominated fine mass was ammonium nitrate, with much smaller contributions from organic matter, including a wood smoke component, and ammonium sulfate. These are
however water soluble and have not been closely linked to IHD in animal and laboratory studies. (Devlin 2003; Lippmann 2009).

TABLE 2
Correlation of air pollution to mortality by IHD and stroke in the Central valley of California, 1989-1991 Mortality
Correlation to IHD
Correlation to stroke
Ozone average top 30 h (ppm) Ozone number hours> 0.09 (ppm) r2 = 0.18
r2 = 0.21
r2 = 0.27
r2 =0.l9
CO (ppm)
r2 < 0.05
r2 < 0.05
r2 = 0.56
r2 < 0.05
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1138 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
■ IHD II Annual average PM10 mass
FIG. 3. Comparison of death rate from IHD, compared to the California av erage, and annual PM10 inhalable aerosol mass. Shasta County is at the very northern end of the California Central Valley, and Kern County is at the southern end.
200 ~--------------------~
:€ 150
Q.
"' 1:11
f : 100
..
i
~ 50
.. " . " •
o~---------------------~
60 70 80 !10 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Relative rate of IHD mortality to CA average 1%)
FIG. 4. IHD mortality rate relative to the California average versus PM10. The parameters are associated by a regression r2 = 0.56.
90 ,------------------------,
80 70
60 1 50
::i.40 ~ 30
20 10
0'--------='-------------------'
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 12
2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month of the Year 2002
FIG. 5. PM2.s mass at the Fresno "Super-site," 2002, the same period used in Figure 2.
--- 1989-1991 -- 2003-2007
FIG. 6. IHD in the California Central valley, 1989-1991 versus 2003-2007.

The 1989-1991 data are scaled to match the Shasta-Butte data, 2003-2007, as diagnostic protocols differed.

Reduction of I HD Rates: 2003-2007 Versus 1989-1991
Beginning around 1999, data on aerosol in the Central Valley were enhanced by the availability of PM2.s mass and chemical speciation at some San Joaquin Valley sites. In Figure 5, the same period for the Figure 2, one day in six PM 10 mass is shown for 24 h daily fine PM25 mass (ADAM 2010). The old federal 24-h PM2.s standard was 65 {lglm 3 and the current 24-h standard is 35 {lglm 3, which is routinely violated in winter. The annual average standard is 15 {lglm 3•
The question of IHD and aerosols was revisited for the period 2003-2007 (Cahill et al. 2010). From the recent data, it became 200
100
!iO
0 _.... <0.6 micron• -- 0.6-3.S micron•
~ Vanadium
I\
) N\_ f"-.
'-. V
1 3 15 7 9 11 13 16 17 19 21 23 26 27 29 31
2 4 11 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 211 28 30
_,,_.. -<0.6 micron• -+- 0.6-3.6 micron•
250 r-----------------------~
200
e: 1so
0 .::: 100
60 Nickel
1 3 5 7 II 11 13 16 17 111 21 23 26 27 29 31
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 11!1 18 .0 22 2A 2a 28 30
January 1976
FIG. 7. Vanadium and nickel aerosols in Bakersfield, January 1976.

Cahill -- 00000280
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METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 2 1139
ra Elemental carbon ■ Organic aerosols ■ Ammonium nitrate ~ Ammonium sulfate ■ Soil
30 25
20 \ 15
10 5
0 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
(a)
ail! PM 2_5 mass (gravimetric) ■ PM 2_5 mass (sum of speciu) 30 25
20 .., 15
i
:::t 10
5 0
11 11 11 12 12
November
12 12 12
December
(b)
1 1 1
January
1 1 2 2
February
2 FIG. 8. (a) and (b) showing PM2.s mass closure and major species. clear that a comparison of the IHD mortality, 1989-1991 versus 2003-2007, shows a major reduction, roughly 30%, that occurs in 2003-2007 for the counties north of Bakersfield (Figure 6).

The trend for the northern half of the Central Valley is similar, while Bakersfield in Kern County is only slightly reduced. Thus, the question arises as to the causes for the improvement in the IHD rate.

The compositional analysis of Central Valley aerosols dates back to the early 1970s, including an innovative program of UC Davis for the California Air Resources Board (CARB), 1973-1977 (Cahill et al. 1974; Flocchini et al. 1976; Barone et al. 1978; Motallebi et al. 1990a, 1990b). A total of 14,100 daily aerosol measurements were taken in three size modes (15-3.5 µ,m, 3.5-0.50 µ,m, and 0.50--0.0 µ,m) and analyzed for elemental content by particle-induced x-ray emission (PIXE) (Cahill 1995) at about fourteen separate sites, including the valley sites of Chico, Sacramento, Visalia, (100 km NNE of Bakersfield), and Bakersfield. Bakersfield had one of the highest levels of vanadium and nickel aerosols in California, but port areas (Oakland, Richmond, and Los Alamitos) were also high (Figure 7).

Neither vanadium nor nickel was seen in sizes above 3.5 µ,m diameter. The radically different vanadium/nickel ratios oc curred when winds came from the western (Taft, 40 km SW) or northern (Oil dale, 5 kmN) oil fields periods of stagnation, giving the highest pollution levels, favored sources in the much closer northern oil fields, some of which were within Bakersfield itself (Motallebi et al. 1990b ). In addition, there was an oil refinery in Oildale, with potentially different emissions than the crude oil burned for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Also it is notewor thy that while the vanadium and nickel concentrations can vary by over an order of magnitude, the lead levels were relatively Cahill -- 00000281
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1140 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
-- Sulfur 1!174 - Lead 1!174 Sulfur 200!1
Redding Chico Sacramento Vlsali:llfresno B11ker11fleld
Vanadium 1974 - • Nickel 1974 - Zinc 1974
711
!ill
◄ II
311
211
10 II
ReddiR<J Chico 811.aamenlo Vis11.lil!Jf'msno Bllkerslield North to south transect
FIG. 9. Lead and sulfur, 197 4-1976, versus sulfur, 2009, and vanadium, nickel, and zinc 1974-1976. Visalia lies between Bakersfield and Fresno. constant, indicating a continuous impact of traffic-derived aerosols at Bakersfield.

Recent compositional analysis of the PM2.s aerosols in the southern San Joaquin Valley also became available through the IMPROVE site at Sequoia National Park (NP) starting in 1992 (Malm et al. 1994). The Sequoia NP Ash Mountain site was at low elevation, near 600 m, and thus received aerosols from the valley floor whenever the inversion lifted to that level.

IMPROVE had anticipated the value of PM2.s mass and full speciation, using quality assurance protocols of "integral redun dancy" to measure major parameters by two or more indepen dent methods. Sulfur from PIXE on Teflon in Channel A (Cahill 1995) is compared with sulfates after a denuder on Nylon filters in Channel B. Organic matter measured by combustion from tandem quartz filters in Channel C is compared to organic mat ter estimates by nonvolatile hydrogen of Teflon in Channel A (Cahill et al. 1989). Iron was measured by both PIXE and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) on the Teflon filters of Channel A. Thus, the gravimetric mass can be directly compared to the sum of all species (Figure 8b) and all major components (Figure 8a).

Figure 8 shows periodic incursions of high aerosol levels throughout the winter whenever the valley inversion rises to the altitude of Ash Mountain. Other than during these incursions, aerosol mass levels are very low, a few {lglm 3• By choosing an arbitrary concentration of 10 {lglm 3, we can be assured that we are seeing San Joaquin Valley aerosols diluted by the high inversion levels necessary for the Ash Mountain incursions.

Finally, the excellent agreement between the mass of aerosol measured gravimetrically and the sum of species for all three IMPROVE channels (Figure 8a) shows that we are not missing any major component of the PM2.s mass.

Figure 5 showed that the violations of the annual and 24-h PM25 standards in the San Joaquin Valley are driven by the winter aerosols. The high PM2.s values generally correspond to stable conditions with low inversions, and the clean periods to synoptic rainstorms passing through the Valley. Figure 8b shows that winter composition is dominated by fine Dp < 2.5 /lm nitrates with smaller contributions from organic matter, wood smoke and vehicular exhaust, and some sulfates (IMPROVE 2010). The IMPROVE data also include fine metals, thus aiding our intercomparisons.

Winter data from the earlier efforts (Cahill et al. 1974, 2003; Flocchini et al. 1976) can be roughly compared with the current work (Cahill et al. 2010) by summing the four finest DRUM stages to obtain <0.56 /lm particles (Table 3 and Figure 6).

Addressing the potential health impacts of these data, vana dium and nickel have the highest mortality risk coefficients of seventeen fine particulate matter (FPM) components (Lippmann et al. 2006). The elevated levels seen in 1974-1976 were sharply reduced as early as 1992-1993, using the vanadium and nickel levels in the southern San Joaquin Valley from the Sequoia IM PROVE site, although the Sequoia NP site's PM2.s data are not directly comparable to the valley floor's very fine ( <0.5 /lm) particle data. These data are shown in Figure 9. For compari son's sake, vanadium and nickel have current annual averages in FPM of 1.9 ng/m3 across sixty metropolitan areas (MSAs) (Lippmann et al. 2006).

Examining the potential sources for the very fine (in this case <0.5 /lm) particles (Table 3 and Figure 6), we see sulfur plus metals associated with crude oil combustion (vanadium and nickel), as well as lead and other vehicular metals. Kern County has very large reserves of crude oil, most of which lie just north and west of Bakersfield, although there was and is some oil extraction within the city itself. The Kern County oil fields have a heavy crude oil that requires EOR techniques such as steam injection to extract. Initially, the steam was generated by burning the crude oil itself, resulting in high pollution lev els. In 1979, violations of federal air quality standards required Kern County to apply strict controls on sulfur dioxide, nitro gen dioxide, and particulate emissions, which included metals vanadium and nickel. EOR by crude oil combustion dropped slowly, 1980-1990, and then dramatically with the increasing availability of natural gas, with an immediate improvement in air quality by the early 1990s (CA Almanac). Thus, the popula tion subject to IHD mortality in Bakersfield 1989-1991 had at least two decades of exposure to elevated high levels of very fine to ultrafine transition metals, specifically vanadium and nickel at 10-20 times the current US averages.

Laboratory data on the impact of vanadium and nickel
aerosols has become more extensive (Zhang et al. 2009).

Thus, we can hypothesize that the effective control of the Cahill -- 00000282
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METALS AND ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE 2 1141
TABLE 3
Comparison between January 1974-1976, averaged, and January 2009. The four finest DRUM stages of the 2009 data have been summed to be PM < 0.56 µ,m to better match the PM < 0.5 µ,m data of the earlier ARB/UCD aerosol network. The Sequoia NP and Fresno winter 2002-2003 data are of PM2.s
Valley transect 2009 [January 2009 (ng/m 3) <0.56 µ,m]
Redding
Chico
Sacramento
Fresno
Bakersfield
Fresno PM2.s (ng/m 3)
Winter 2002
Sequoia NP ( ~600 m), 10 episodes PM2.s > 10 µ,g/m 3
Sulfur

88.8 136.9
246.0
261.4
505.0
266.2
Vanadium

0.2 0.5

0.4 0.3

0.2 0.47
Nickel

1.0 0.4

0.1 0.5

2.3 Zinc

13.9 5.2

6.9 40.3

32.0 12.7
Lead

2.5 2.1

1.6 4.9

9.4 1.2
Winter
2002-2003 (ng/m 3) 194 0.2

0.22 0.1

0.1 4.7 1.0
Winter 1992-1993 (ng/m 3) 562 0.7 6.0 2.0
Valley transect 1974-1976 [January 1974-1976 (ng/m 3) average, <0.5 µ,m diameter] Redding na na na na na
Chico 170 7 10 483
Sacramento 375 0 1
8 38
18 720
Visalia 225 17 19 593
Bakersfield 1685 19 61 1714
Port of Los Angeles
August-September, 2008
crude-oil-derived metals in the late 1980s may be responsible for the decreased IHD death rate at sites north of Bakersfield in the 1990s and beyond. This hypothesis is supported by other studies, such as the sharp drop in mortality after a sharp drop in sulfur, vanadium, and nickel in Hong Kong when the sul fur levels in fuels were lowered by edict (Hedley et al. 2002; Lippmann et al. 2006). The presence of high levels of nickel in New York City from residual oil combustion in buildings is hypothesized to be a causal factor in the enhanced mortality Nlcktl 0.25-0.09
25 ,------------------------.

FIG. 10. Very fine (0.26 > Dp > 0.09 µ,m) vanadium and nickelin Wilmington, CA, downwind during daylight hours at the Port of Los Angeles. 2565 16 4 13 6
associated with PM2.s (Peltier et al. 2009; Peltier and Lippmann 2010).

The current data also have relevance to the emission of sulfur, vanadium, and nickel by oceangoing ships. Recent data in New York and New Jersey (Peltier et al. 2009), and the Port of Los Angeles (Cahill et al. 2009), show the impacts of oceangoing ships burning residual or bunker oil. In the Los Angeles study, the average concentrations of fine sulfur, vanadium, and nickel in the coastal town of Wilmington in August 2008 were 2565, 16, and 4.4 ng/m 3, respectively (Table 3). Southern winds bring aerosols from the Port of Los Angeles into Wilmington routinely during part of each day (Figure 10). Ultrafine particles were not collected in this study, so the actual values could have been significantly higher than these values. Thus, on the basis of the Bakersfield data, the enhanced rates of IHD are predicted in the area.

CONCLUSION
IHD mortality in the Central Valley of California, corrected for age, race, sex, and smoking, was almost 60% greater at the more polluted southern end of the Central Valley than the less polluted northern end in 1989-1991 despite similar meteorol ogy and land use patterns throughout the Valley. A significant association, r2 = 0.56, is seen between IHD mortality and PM10, but negligible correlation, r2 < 0.05, is seen with stroke mortal ity. When PM10 data are converted to an estimated PM2.s mass Cahill -- 00000283
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1142 T. A. CAHILL ET AL.
by using more recent measurements, these results are similar to other studies such as the "6 Cities" study (Dockery et al. 1993) in mortality increase per particulate mass; 1.9% mortality in crease per {lglm 3 of PM2.s for "6 Cities," while 1.8% mortality increase per {lglm 3 of estimated PM25 for this study, despite major differences in meteorology and pollutant mix. No associ ation was seen between CO and any health impact. Ozone was only weakly correlated with HID and stroke. However, strong east-west ozone gradients were not corrected for in this work, and thus, these results for ozone must be viewed as merely indicative of the possible impacts.

The sharp reduction seen, when the IHD data were reexam ined in the period 2003-2007, was coincident with a reduction in the high levels of vanadium ( 19 ng/m 3) and nickel (38 ng/m3) due to oil field operations from before 1974 to after 1990, when new protocols were adopted. The vanadium and nickel levels in 2009 were close to the national average values, both roughly

1.9 ng/m3• The relatively smaller reduction in IHD rate in Bak ersfield itself is associated with the continuing impacts of ve hicular very fine and ultrafine metals (Cahill et al. 2010, this issue).

REFERENCES
ADAM. (2010). ADAM California Environmental Protection Agency-Air Resources Board, ADAM Data Summaries. Retrieved from
www.arb.ca.gov/adam
Barone, J. B., Cahill, T. A., Eldred, R. A., Flocchini, R. G., Shadoan, D. J., and Dietz, T. M. (1978). A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Visibility Degradation at Four California Cities. Atmos. Environ., 12:2213-2221.

Cahill, T., Cliff, S. S., Jimenez-Cruz, M., and Perry, K. (2003). Aerosols by Size, Time, and Composition in Support of the Fresno Asthmatic Children's Environment Study, 2001. Final Report to the California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA.

Cahill, T. A. (1995). Compositional Analysis of Atmospheric Aerosols, in Particle-Induced X-Ray Emission Spectrometry (Chemical Analysis Series, Vol. 133), S. A. E. Johansson, J. L. Campbell, and K. G. Malmqvist, ed., John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, pp. 237-311.

Cahill, T. A., Barnes, D., and Smeltzer, K. (2009). Deposition of Coarse Toxic Particles in Wilmington, CA. Final Report for the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC), Sacramento, CA.

Cahill, T. A., Barnes, D. E., Spada, N. J., Lawton, J. A., and Cahill, T. M. (2010).

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Cahill, T. A., Eldred, R. A., Motallebi, N., and Malm, W.C. (1989). Indirect Measurement of Hydrocarbon Aerosols Across the United States by Non Sulfate Hydrogen-Remaining Gravimetric Mass Correlations. Aerosol Sci.

Tech., 10:421-429.

Cahill, T. A., and Flocchini, R. G. (1974). Regional Monitoring of Smog Aerosols, Annual Reports to the California Air Resources Board, Contract 2---006, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, Sacramento, CA.

California Department of Health Services. (2010). California Department of Health Services: Center for Health Statistics Office of Health Informa- tion and Research (OHIR). Retrieved from http://www.dhs.ca.gov/hisp/chs/ OHIR/vssdata/Tables.htm
CORE. (September 1994). Cardiovascular Disease Outreach and Epidemiology Program. The Local Burden of Cardiovascular Disease; Death from Heart Disease and Stroke in California Cities. Report No. 1. Kao, C., Gazzinaga, J. M., Cowling, D. W., Cohen, R. D., Fox, P., Kaplan, G. A. California De partment of Health Services and the University of California, San Francisco, CA.

California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study (CRPAQS). (2001).

California Regional Particulate Air Quality Study. Retrieved from http:/ /www.arb.ca. gov /airways
Devlin, R. (2003). What We Know and What We Think We Know About Health Effects of Fine Particles: Is It Enough? Annual Meeting. American Associ ation of Aerosol Research (AAAR), Charlotte, NC.

Dockery, D. W., Pope, C. A. III, Hu, X. P., Spengler, J. D., Ware, J. H., Fay, M. E., Ferris, B. G., and Speizer, F. E. (1993). An Association Between Air Pollution and Mortality in Six US Cities. N. Engl. J. Med., 329:1725-1759.

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Lancet, 360(9346):1646--1652.

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Epidemiol. Stud., 19:235-247.

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Cardiovascular Effects of Nickel in Ambient Air. Environ. Health Perspect. 1141(11):1662-1669.

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Spatial and Seasonal Trends in Particle Concentration and Optical Extinction in the United States. J. Geophys. Res., 99(Dl):1347-1370.

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Motallebi, N., Flocchini, R. G., Myrup, L. 0., and Cahill, T. A. (1990b). A Prin cipal Component Analysis of Visibility and Air Pollution in Six California Cities. Atmosfer., 3(2):127-141.

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Applied Linear Statistical Models (4th ed.). Irwin, Chicago, IL, p. 353.

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Cahill -- 00000284

EXHIBIT 14
Prenatal Air Pollution and Newborns' Predisposition to
Accelerated Biological Aging
Dries S. Martens, MSc, Bianca Cox, PhD , and Bram G. Janssen, PhD Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium Diana B. P. Clemente, MSc,
Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium; Instituto de Salud Global, Centre for Research in En
vironmental Epidemiology, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain Antonio Gasparrini, PhD,
Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, England; Department of Medical Statistics , LSHTM, London,
England
Charlotte Vanpoucke, MSc,
Belgian Interregional Environment Agency, Brussels, Belgium Wouter Lefebvre, PhD,
Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Mol, Belgium Harry A. Roels, PhD,
Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium; Louvain Centre for To
xicology and Applied Pharmacology, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium Michelle Plusquin, PhD, and
Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium Tim S. Nawrot, PhD
Corresponding Author: Tim S. Na wrot, PhD, Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium, ([email protected]).

Author Contributions: Mr Martens and Dr Nawrot had full access to all of the data in the study and tak e responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Study concept and design: Martens, Janssen, Nawrot.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: All authors.

Drafting of the manuscript: Martens, Cox, Nawrot.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Martens, Janssen, Clemente, Gasparrini, Vanpoucke, Lefebvre, Roels, Plusquin, Nawrot.

Statistical analysis: Martens, Cox, Gasparrini, Nawrot.

Obtained funding: Nawrot.

Administrative, technical, or material support: Martens, Janssen, Clemente, Lefebvre, Plusquin, Nawrot.

Study supervision: Nawrot.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.

Additional Contributions: We thank Benoit Nemery , MD, PhD (full professor of occupational & environmental medicine at the Department of Public Health and Primary care, Leuven University, Belgium), for his critical revision of the manuscript and Immaculata De Vivo, MPH, PhD (associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts), for providing help by the telomere assay. They did not receive any compensation for their contribution to this work.

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Author Man
uscript
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Published in final edited form as:

JAMA Pediatr. 2017 December 01; 171(12): 1160–1167. doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.3024.

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Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium; Department of Public Health & Primar
y Care, Leuven University, Leuven, Belgium
Abstract
Importance—Telomere length is a mark er of biological aging that may provide a cellular memory of exposures to oxidative stress and inflammation. Telomere length at birth has been related to life expectancy. An association between prenatal air pollution exposure and telomere length at birth could provide new insights in the environmental influence on molecular longevity.

Objective—To assess the association of prenatal e
xposure to particulate matter (PM) with
newborn telomere length as reflected by cord blood and placental telomere length.

Design, Setting, and Participants—In a prospectiv
e birth cohort (ENVIRONAGE
[Environmental Influence on Ageing in Early Life]), a total of 730 mother-newborn pairs were recruited in Flanders, Belgium between February 2010 and December 2014, all with a singleton full-term birth (≥37 weeks of gestation). For statistical analysis, participants with full data on both cord blood and placental telomere lengths were included, resulting in a final study sample size of 641.

Exposures—Maternal residential PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) exposure during pre
gnancy.

Main Outcomes and Measures—In the newborns, cord blood and placental tissue relati ve telomere length were measured. Maternal residential PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy was estimated using a high-resolution spatial-temporal interpolation method. In distributed lag models, both cord blood and placental telomere length were associated with a verage weekly exposures to
PM2.5 during pregnancy, allowing the identification of critical sensitive exposure windows.

Results—In 641 newborns, cord blood and placental telomere length were signif icantly and inversely associated with PM2.5 exposure during midgestation (weeks 12-25 for cord blood and weeks 15-27 for placenta). A 5-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 exposure during the entire pregnancy was associated with 8.8% (95% CI, −14.1% to −3.1%) shorter cord blood leuk ocyte telomeres and

13.2% (95% CI, −19.3% to −6.7%) shorter placental telomere length. These associations were controlled for date of delivery, gestational age, maternal body mass index, maternal age, paternal age, newborn sex, newborn ethnicity, season of delivery, parity, maternal smoking status, maternal educational level, pregnancy complications, and ambient temperature.

Conclusions and Relevance—Mothers who were exposed to higher le vels of PM2.5 gave
birth to newborns with shorter telomere length. The observ ed telomere loss in newborns by
prenatal air pollution exposure indicates less buffer for postnatal influences of factors decreasing telomere length during life. Therefore, improvements in air quality may promote molecular longevity from birth onward.

Telomeres are nucleoprotein structures that cap the end of chromosomes. They can consist of sev
eral thousands of tandem-repeated TTAGGG sequences.1,2 With each cellular division, telomeres shorten. T
elomere length (TL) has been associated with age-related diseases and mortality and is considered a marker of biological aging.3–8 Telomere length is also associated with environmental and lifestyle f
actors that influence the oxidative stress
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and inflammatory status in humans, such as smoking,9 obesity,10 Mediterranean diet,11 exposure to violence,12 and life stress,13 which underscores the vulnerability of telomeres to reactiv
e oxygen species (ROS). In a 2015 update of the Global Burden of Disease study, ambient particulate matter (PM) was ranked as the sixth most leading risk factor influencing public health worldwide.14 Increased oxidative stress and inflammation are proposed as underlying mechanisms through which PM may influence human health.15,16 Exposure to air pollution during in utero life may hav
e adverse effects on the fetus and neonate.17–19
The ability of PM air pollution to generate ROS has led to the hypothesis that telomere attrition is influenced by air pollution exposure.
20 Occupational and population-based
studies hav
e described both positive and negative associations between different types of air pollution and TL in adults.21–27 In general, long-term exposure to PM25 and black carbon (BC)24,26 are associated with shorter TL in adults. Because TL is highly variable at birth, 28,29 potential determinants, such as newborn sex,28 paternal age,28 maternal prepregnancy body mass index (BMI),
20 maternal stress,30 maternal educational level,31 maternal smoking during pregnanc
y,32 and maternal residential proximity to a major road,33 have recently been explored for explaining this phenomenon. In this regard, we hypothesized that exposure to PM air pollution during pregnancy may contribute to telomere setting at birth.

Because in utero life is believed to be a critical time window in the early programming of diseases later in life,
34 unravelling the connection between prenatal air pollution exposure and TL at birth may help to gain new insights in the causes of diseases linked with telomere biological characteristics. In this study, we assessed the association between prenatal exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) and TL at birth.

Methods
Study Population
From the ongoing population-based prospective Environmental Influence on Ageing in Early Life (ENVIR
ONAGE) birth cohort study, 730 mothers with a singleton full-term birth (≥37 weeks of gestation) were selected.35 These mother-newborn pairs were recruited between February 2010 and December 2014 from noon on Fridays to 7 AM Mondays. The study protocol was appro
ved by the ethical committees of Hasselt University and East-Limburg Hospital in Genk, Belgium, and has been carried out according to the Helsinki declaration. 36 The mother’s ability to fill out questionnaires in Dutch was a criterion for selection.

Owing to missing exposure data (n = 10), the unavailability of DNA or bad DNA quality for cord blood (n = 12) and placenta (n = 51), and too high a variability of TL measurement between triplicates of cord blood (n = 10) or placental tissue (n = 9), we obtained cord blood TL samples from 698 mother-newborn pairs and placental TL samples from 660. For statistical analysis, we used participants with full data on both cord blood and placental TLs, resulting in a final study sample size of 641.

Mean Relative TL Measurement
DNA was extracted from cord blood buffy coat and placental tissue (details on sample collection are provided in eMethods 1 in the Supplement). Mean relati ve TL was determined
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reaction (qPCR) protocol.38 For cord blood, the triplicates of the telomere runs showed a coeff
icient of variation (CV) of 0.68%, those of single-copy gene runs a CV of 0.41%, and those of T/S ratios a CV of 6.4%. For placental telomeres, the triplicates of the telomere runs showed a CV of 0.70%, those of the single-copy gene runs a CV of 0.45%, and those of T/S ratios a CV of 6.9%.

Exposure Assessment
Based on the mother's residential address, daily mean PM2.5 concentrations (in micrograms per cubic meter) were estimated using a high-resolution spatial-temporal interpolation method (kriging)39 in combination with a dispersion model.40,41 This interpolation method uses hourly measured PM2.5 pollution data collected at the official fixed-site monitoring stations (n = 34) and land-cov
er data obtained from satellite images.42 The model chain provides daily PM2.5 v
alues on a dense, irregular receptor grid by using data both from the Belgian telemetric air-quality netw
ork and emissions from point sources and line sources. In the Flemish region of Belgium, more than 80% (R2 = 0.8) of the temporal and spatial variability w
as explained by this interpolation tool.43 For each week of pregnancy from the date of conception onward, a mean PM2.5 concentration w as calculated using daily mean
PM2.5 concentrations at the mother’s residence. In case the mother had a gestation of less than 40 weeks, exposure w
as set at zero for the weeks after giving birth. The number of mothers who changed address during pregnancy (69 of 641 [10.7%]) was taken into account when calculating the weekly exposures. Weekly mean ambient temperatures were calculated based on the daily mean temperatures in degrees Celsius provided by the Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels, Belgium.

General Study Procedures
At the first antenatal visit (weeks 7-9 of pregnancy), maternal BMI was determined by calculating weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared. The date of conception w
as estimated on the basis of the first day of the mother’s last menstrual period combined with the first ultrasonographic examination. After delivery, mothers provided written informed consent and completed the study questionnaires in the post-delivery ward. We collected detailed information about the mothers, fathers, and newborns from questionnaires and medical records. Parity was categorized in mothers having their first newborn, having their second newborn, or having their third or more newborn. Maternal educational level was coded “low” when mothers did not obtain any diploma, “middle” when they obtained a high school diploma, and “high” when they obtained a college or university degree. Maternal smoking status was categorized as “never smoker,” “former smoker” when the mother had quit smoking before pregnancy, and “smoker” when smoking continued during pregnancy.

Newborns were classified as white European when 2 or more grandparents were Europeans, and non-European when at least 3 grandparents were of non-European origin. The presence of pregnancy complications was defined as the experience by the mother of 1 or more of the following conditions during pregnancy: gestational diabetes, hypertension, infectious disease, preeclampsia, vaginal bleeding, and hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. Perinatal measures, such as birth date, newborn sex, birth weight, and Apgar score were obtained after birth.

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Statistical Analysis
We used distributed lag models (DLMs) to model the association between log10-transformed TL and mean weekly PM2.5 exposures during gestational weeks 1 to 40. A distributed lag (nonlinear) model (DLNM) is defined through a “cross-basis” function, which allo ws the
simultaneous estimation of an (nonlinear) exposure-response association and nonlinear effects across lags, the latter termed lag-response association.44The exposure-response function was assumed to be linear and the lag structure was modeled using a natural cubic spline with 5
df, setting the knots at equally spaced values in the original lag scale (1-40 weeks). The number of knots was chosen based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC). 45 We also included a cross-basis for weekly mean temperature in the model. We used a natural cubic spline with 4 df for the temperature-TL function and a natural cubic spline with 5 df for the lag structure (with knots at equally spaced values in the original lag scale).

In addition, we accounted for a priori selected covariates that include known determinants of newborn or adult TL and variables with a potential link with PM2.5 and TL, such as date of deliv
ery, gestational age, maternal BMI, maternal age, paternal age, newborn's sex, ethnicity, season of delivery, parity, maternal smoking status, maternal educational level, and pregnancy complications. We calculated cumulative effect estimates for the 3 trimesters of pregnancy (weeks 1-13, weeks 14- 26, and weeks 27-40) and the overall (40-week) cumulative estimate. Final estimates are presented as percentage change (with 95% CI) in TL for a 5-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5. Details on secondary analyses (ie, average exposure models, effect modif
ication by sex, and nonlinear dose-response models) and sensitivity analyses are provided in eMethods 2 in the Supplement. All analyses were performed with the statistical software R, version 3.3.2 (R Project for Statistical Computing) using the dlnm package.
46 Results
Characteristics of the Study Population
Table 1 describes the general characteristics of the study population (n = 641). The newborns, among them 318 girls (49.6%), had a mean (SD) gestational age of 39.4 (1.0) weeks and a mean (SD) birth weight of 3451 (428) g. Most (n = 567, 88.5%) of the ne
wborns were Europeans of white ethnicity. The mean relative TL of newborns ranged from 0.51 to 1.75 in cord blood and from 0.52 to 1.89 for placental tissue. Associations of covariates with newborn TL are reported in eTable 1 in the Supplement. Mean (SD) maternal age was 29.1 (4.6) years, and mean (SD) maternal BMI was 24.3 (4.5). Among the mothers, 351 (54.8%) were primiparous and 224 (34.9%) secundiparous. Mean weekly PM2.5 exposure was 13.4 μg/m3 (5th-95th percentile, 4.3-32.5 μg/m3). eFigure 1 in the Supplement shows the contours of the annual PM2.5 e
xposure in the recruitment area and the
places of residence of the mothers during pregnanc
y.

Association Between Prenatal PM2.5 Exposure and Newborn TL Scatterplots showing newborn TL in association with average PM2.5 exposure during the entire pregnanc
y are shown in eFigure 2 in the Supplement. Lag-specific (weekly) DLM estimates of the association between PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy and TL at birth are presented in the Figure. Cord blood as well as placental TL were inv ersely associated with
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PM2.5 exposure during midgestation: significant estimates were observed for weeks 12 to 25 in cord blood (Figure, A), with the largest ne
gative association in week 19 and for weeks 15
to 27 in placenta (Figure, B), with the largest negative association in week 21. In contrast, a positive association between PM2.5 and cord blood TL was observed for exposure in weeks 32 to 34. The estimated ov
erall (weeks 1-40) change in TL for a 5-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 exposure was −8.8% (95% CI, −14.1 to −3.1%) for cord blood and −13.2% (95% CI, −19.3% to −6.7%) for placenta (Table 2). T
rimester-specific cumulative estimates were only
significant for the second trimester: −9.4% (95% CI, −13.1 to −5.6%) for cord blood and −7.1% (95% CI, −11.6% to −2.4%) for placental TL.

The existence of vulnerable exposure windows (ie, the hypothesis that exposure during some weeks of pregnanc
y is more critical than during others) was tested by comparing the main DLM model with a DLM model assuming a constant risk during the different weeks of pregnancy (likelihood ratio test on 4
df). The main DLM model provided a better fit than the
constant-risk model for cord blood (AIC, -1418.4 vs -1407.0, P = .001) but not for placental telomeres (AIC, -1173.2 vs -1177.4, P = .46). The DLM estimates are corroborated by results from the average exposure models (Table 2). For instance, the change in TL for a 5- μg/m3 increment in mean PM2.5 over the entire pregnancy was -8.4% (95% CI, -13.5% to -2.9%) in cord blood and -12.5% (95% CI, -18.4% to -6.2%) in placenta. We did not observ e
a significant modification in the association by newborn sex for cord and placental TL, and we observed a nonlinear dose-response correlation (eTables 2 and 3 in the Supplement, respectively). Assuming constant associations within the strata of lags 1 to 10, 11 to 20, 21 to 30, and 31 to 40 (eFigure 3 in the Supplement), evidence for the positive association between cord blood TL and PM2.5 toward the end of pregnancy is less evident. Cumulative estimates from sensitivity analyses were similar to those from the main model (T able 3).

Discussion
To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting an association between PM2.5 exposure during in utero life and newborn TL. After adjustment for se veral covariates and potential
confounders, maternal exposure to PM2.5 during pregnancy was associated with 8.8% shorter newborn cord blood and 13.2% shorter placental telomeres. By applying distrib uted
lag models based on weekly mean PM2.5 exposures, we identified specific vulnerable periods during pregnanc
y. Both cord blood and placental TLs were negatively associated with PM2.5 exposure during the second trimester of pregnancy. The finding that early-life TL might forecast life span, as observed in an animal-based study of zebra f inches,47 underlines
the importance of the identification of early-life TL determinants. In this re gard, our results
may have important health consequences later in life because a shorter TL at birth indicates less buffer capacity for postnatal influence of insults (eg, inflammation on TL). Particulate air pollution may generate ROS in a direct manner via the Fenton reaction operating at the particle surface,48 or in an indirect manner via altered mitochondrial and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-oxidase functions or via inflammatory cell activ ation.49
Telomeres contain a great amount of guanine bases, which are vulnerable to ROS. Reactive oxygen species can induce DNA breakage, leading to increased telomere shortening in addition to cellular replication.50 The major route for airborne particles to enter the maternal org
anism is via inhalation. Ultrafine particles (UFPs) with a diameter less than 0.1 μm (<100 Martens et al. Page 6
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nm) are able to cross the airway-blood barrier, may enter the bloodstream, and are transported to different body compartments.51–53 Whether particles can cross the placental barrier is still debated because of the rather limited evidence. Nevertheless, it has been shown recently that nanoparticles up to 240 nm can cross the human placental barrier and nanoparticles up to 500 nm may enter the fetal circulation in mice.54,55 An elevated oxidativ
e stress status in both mother and newborn may be a potential explanation for our findings concerning PM2.5 exposure observed in the present study. Earlier studies present positiv
e associations between air pollution exposure and placental tissue nitrosative stress56 and mitochondrial oxidative stress.57 We identified the mid-pregnancy period as a critical time window for the association of PM2.5 e
xposure with newborn TL. This finding is in
agreement with the dev
elopment of the placental barrier and maternal-fetal circulation. In the first months of pregnancy, the placental barrier remains thick with no perfusion but becomes thinner during the course of pregnancy concomitantly with increased fetal capillary development until week 10, which from then onward will facilitate an enhanced maternal- fetal exchange of nutrients and waste products.58 Exposure to PM2.5 late in pregnancy (from weeks 32-34) is associated with longer telomeres in cord blood, although evidence is not conclusi
ve. This finding may suggest the presence of a potential compensatory or overcompensatory mechanism in response to air pollution exposure in cord that is absent in placenta. Positive associations between leukocyte TL and recent exposure to air pollution have been observed previously in adults.21,22,25 An increase of telomerase activity in lymphocytes and a clonal e
xpansion of subpopulations of lymphocytes with longer
telomeres following acute exposure have been suggested as potential underlying mechanisms.21,59,60 Telomere length as assessed in the present study is a result of the combination between shortening and elongating processes prior to the telomere assessment time point. Ho
wever, owing to the cumulative burden of oxidative stress during the entire pregnancy, overall newborn TL was inversely associated with prenatal exposure to air pollution. The stronger overall influence of PM on placental telomeres compared with cord blood may be due to this potential compensatory mechanism in cord blood, as we observed both positive and negative estimates for PM2.5 exposure and cord blood TL during pregnanc
y, whereas all estimates were negative for placental TL.

Strengths and Limitations
Our study has several strengths. First, we have a large sample size of newborns with matching cord blood and placental tissue to study TL in relation to PM2.5 air pollution exposure. Second, we used high-resolution e
xposure estimates based on the home addresses
of the mothers, and we integrated daily concentrations to estimate weekly mean exposure during pregnancy. Compared with the more conventional approach of averaging exposures over relatively large time windows (trimesters or the entire pregnancy), the use of DLM allowed a more detailed investigation of prenatal exposure windows and enabled the identification of midpregnancy as a critical period for the association of PM2.5 with TL in cord blood as well as placenta. Third, our findings are generalizable because our study population is representati
ve of the gestational segment of the population at large.35 However owing to spatial variations in PM2.5 concentrations, differences in exposure may exist, as our population w
as recruited in a relatively small area. Our study should also be Martens et al. Page 7
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interpreted within the context of its potential limitations. Our results are based on exposure at the maternal residence, and potential misclassification may be present because we could not account for other e
xposure sources that contribute to personal exposure, such as exposure during a commute, at work, and elsewhere. However, proxies of exposure, such as residential proximity to major roads, have been shown recently to be associated with internal exposure to nanosized particles, reflecting exposure to black carbon.61 The assessment of TL at birth represents a specific snapshot in the gestational period. W e were not able to
evaluate telomere dynamics throughout the entire pregnancy period, and, in view of our results, the role of telomerase needs further evaluation. Parental TL may be a determinant of the initial telomere length setting of the next generation.28 Because parents exposed to PM2.5 may have shorter telomeres, the association between PM2.5 exposure and newborn TL may be mediated by parental TLs. Unfortunately, this mediation could not be e valuated in
the ENVIRONAGE study because data on parental TLs were not available.

Conclusions
To our knowledge, this study is the first to report an association between prenatal exposure to PM2.5 air pollution and TL at birth, both in cord blood and placental tissue. We theorize that biological aging is associated with PM2.5 air pollution exposure, even before birth, which may underlie potential adverse health consequences later in life. This study adds to the gro
wing body of evidence that even relatively low levels of prenatal exposure to air pollution contributes to fetal programming at the molecular level and more precisely at the level of telomere biological features. Adequate reduction of environmental fine-particle air pollution levels may promote longevity as from birth onwards and may enhance overall quality of life. Prospective follow-up studies are needed to further elucidate the outcome of PM2.5-linked telomere shortening at birth in relation to pediatric and adult health and disease later in life.

Supplementary Material
Refer to Web version on PubMed Central for supplementary material.

Funding/Support
The ENVIR
ONAGE birth cohort is supported by grant ERC-StG310898 from the EU Program "Ideas" and by the grant FWO, G073315N from the Flemish Scientific Fund. Dr Cox is a postdoctoral fellow of the Flemish Scientific Fund supported by grant 12Q0517N. Dr Gasparrini's contribution was supported by grant MR/M022625/1 from the Medical Research Council UK.

Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, revie w, or approval of the manuscript; and
decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

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Key Points
Question
Is telomere length at birth (a marker of biological aging) influenced by exposure to particulate matter air pollution during in utero life?
Findings
In this birth cohort study of 641 mother-newborn pairs, mothers with higher residential exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm air pollution) ga
ve birth to newborns with significantly lower telomere length that could not be explained by other factors including socioeconomic class. For a 5-μg/m3 increase in residential PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy, cord blood telomeres were 9% shorter and placental telomeres 13% shorter.

Meaning
Impro
ved air quality may promote molecular longevity from birth onward.

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Figure. Cord Blood and Placental Telomere Length (TL) in Association With Week-Specific Prenatal PM2.5. Exposur
e During Pregnancy
Week-specific estimates provided as a percentage change in mean relative TL (with 95% CI) for a 5-μg/m3 increment of PM2.5 air pollution exposure. Models were adjusted for date of deliv
ery, gestational age, maternal body mass index, maternal age, paternal age, newborn sex, newborn ethnicity, season of delivery, parity, maternal smoking status, maternal educational level, pregnancy complications, and ambient temperature. PM2.5 indicates particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less.

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Martens et al. Page 14
T
able 1
Characteristics of 641 Mother-Newborn Pairs
Characteristic No. (%)
Newborns
Birth weight, mean (SD), g 3451 (428)
Females 318 (49.6)
White European 567 (88.5)
Gestational age, wk
37 33 (5.1)
38 87 (13.6)
39 196 (30.6)
40 242 (37.8)
41 83 (12.9)
Season of birth
Winter 163 (25.4)
Spring 140 (21.8)
Summer 153 (23.9)
Autumn 185 (28.9)
Apgar score 5 min after birth
7 11 (1.7)
8 45 (7.0)
9 187 (29.2)
10 398 (62.1)
Mothers
Age, mean (SD), y 29.1 (4.6)
BMI, mean (SD) 24.3 (4.5)
Educational level
a
Low 71 (11.1)
Middle 245 (38.2)
High 325 (50.7)
Smoking statusb
Never smoker 401 (62.6)
Former smoker 159 (24.8)
Current smoker 81 (12.6)
Pregnancy complicationsc 73 (11.4)
Cesarean delivery 24 (3.7)
Parity
1 351 (54.8)
2 224 (34.9)
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Characteristic No. (%)
≥3 66 (10.3)
W
eekly mean PM2.5 exposure, μg/m3d 13.4 (4.3 to 32.5) Weekly mean temperature, °Cd 10.7 (−0.2 to 19.4)
Fathers
Age, mean (SD), y 31.7 (5.3)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less.
aMaternal educational level was coded "low" when mothers did not obtain any diploma, "middle" when they obtained a high school diploma, and "high" when they obtained a colle
ge or university degree.
bMaternal smoking status was categorized as "never smoker," "former smoker" when quitted smoking before pregnancy, and "smoker" when smoking continued during pregnanc
y.
cPregnancy complications was defined as the experience by the mother of one or more of the following conditions during pregnancy: gestational diabetes, hypertension, infectious disease, pre-eclampsia, v aginal bleeding, and hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. dPresented as mean (5th to 95th percentile) and for the actual pregnancy duration.

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T
able 2
Association Between Newborn Telomere Length and Prenatal PM2.5 Exposurea Percentage Change (95% CI)
Exposure Window Distributed Lag Model Average Exposure Model Cord Blood (n = 641)
Overall (1-40 wk)b −8.8 (−14.1 to −3.1) −8.4 (−13.5 to −2.9) Trimester 1 −2.3 (−6.1 to 1.7) −0.8 (−4.7 to 3.2)
Trimester 2 −9.4 (−13.1 to −5.6) −9.8 (−13.3 to −6.2) Trimester 3 3.1 (−1.8 to 8.3) 2.6 (−1.4 to 6.8) Placental Tissue (n = 641)
Overall (1-40 wk)b −13.2 (−19.3 to −6.7) −12.5 (−18.4 to −6.2) Trimester 1 −1.4 (−6.0 to 3.5) −0.8 (−5.5 to 4.1)
Trimester 2 −7.1 (−11.6 to −2.4) −7.4 (−11.7 to −2.9) Trimester 3 −5.3 (−10.8 to 0.5) −4.5 (−9.0 to 0.2)
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less. aEstimates provided as a percentage change in mean relative telomere length for a 5-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5, estimated by distributed lag models using weekly mean exposures, and by mean PM2.5 during specif ic exposure windows (average exposure model).
bIn the average exposure models, the overall exposure window of 1 to 40 weeks is the actual pregnancy duration (ranging from 37-41 weeks).

Models were adjusted for date of deliv
ery, gestational age, maternal BMI, maternal age, paternal age, newborn sex, newborn ethnicity, season of delivery, parity, maternal smoking status, maternal educational level, pregnancy complications, and ambient temperature.

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T
able 3
Sensitivity Analysesa
Percentage Change (95% CI)
Model No. Cord Blood Telomere Length Placental Telomere Length Main model 641 −8.8 (−14.1 to −3.1) −13.2 (−19.3 to −6.7) Unconstrained lag structure 641 −8.4 (−14.0 to −2.5) −14.0 (−20.2 to −7.3) Additional adjustment for month of delivery 641 −9.2 (−14.6 to −3.4) −12.3 (−18.6 to −5.6) Excluding non-European mothers 567 −8.7 (−14.4 to −2.6) −11.9 (−18.6 to −4.8) Excluding mothers with low educational level 570 −10.0 (−15.4 to −4.1) −13.4 (−19.8 to −6.4) Excluding current and former smokers 401 −12.1 (−18.8 to −4.9) −16.2 (−23.5 to −8.2) Excluding mothers with pregnancy complications 568 −9.1 (−14.7 to −3.2) −14.3 (−20.7 to −7.4) Excluding cesarean deliveries 617 −8.7 (−14.1 to −2.9) −12.8 (−19.0 to −6.1) Excluding all of the above 281 −14.0 (−21.9 to −5.2) −13.3 (−22.3 to −3.2) Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; PM2.5, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less. aEstimates provided as a cumulative (weeks 1-40) percentage change in mean relative telomere length for a 5-μg/m3 increment in PM2.5. Models were adjusted for date of deliv
ery, gestational age, maternal BMI, maternal age, paternal age, newborn sex, newborn ethnicity, season of delivery, parity, maternal smoking status, maternal educational level, pregnancy complications, and ambient temperature. The season of delivery was removed from the model adjusting for month of delivery.

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EXHIBIT 15

UNCORRECTED PROOF

ARTICLE INFO
Articlehistory:

Received 17June
2016
Received in revised form 5 September
2016
Accepted 12 September 2016
Available online xxx
Keywords:

Aerosols
Highway
Size profiles
Lateral transects
Ultra fine metals

ABSTRACT
As one component ofa
study investigating the impact of vehicle emissions on near-road air quality, human exposures, and potential health effects, particles were measured from September 21 to October 30, 2010 on both sides of a major roadway (Interstate-96) in Detroit. Traffic moved freely on this 12 lane freeway with a mean velocity of 69 mi/hr. with little braking and acceleration. The UC Davis DELTA Group rotating drum (DRUM) impactors were used to collect parti- cles in 8 size ranges at sites nominally 100 m south, 10 m north, 100 m north, and 300 m north of the highway. Ultra-fine particles were continuously collected at the 10 m north and 100 m north sites. Samples were analyzed every 3 h for mass (soft beta ray transmission), 42 elements (synchrotron-induced x-ray fluorescence) and optical attenuation (350–800 nm spectroscopy). A three day period of steady southerly winds along the array allowed direct measurement of freeway emis- sion rates for coarse (10 > Dp > 1.0μm), PM2.5, very fine (0.26 > Dp > 0.09μm), and ultra-fine (Dp < 0.09μm) particles.

The PM2.5 mass concentrations were modeled using literature emission rates during the south to north wind periods, and averaged 1.6± 0.5 μg/m3, versus the measured value of 2.0± 0.7 μg/m3. Using European freeway emission rates from 2010, and modeling them at the I-96 site, we would predict roughly 3.1μg/m3 of PM2.5 particles, corrected from the 4.9 PM10 value by their measured road dust contributions. Using California car and truck emission rates of 1973, this value would have been about 16μg/m3, corrected down from the 19μg/m3 PM5.0 using measured roadway dust contributions.

This would have included 2.7μg/m3 of lead, versus the 0.0033μg/m3 measured. Very fine particles were distributed across the array with a relatively weak falloff versus distance. For the ultra-fine particles, emissions of soot and metals seen in vehicular braking studies correlated with traffic at the 10 m site, but only the soot was statistically significant at the 100 m north site. Otherwise, the 10 m north and 100 m north sites were essentially identical in mean concentration and highly correlated in time for most of the 5 week study. This result supports earlier publications showing the ability of very fine and ultra-fine particles to transport to sites well removed from the freeway sources. The concentrations of very fine and ultra-fine metals from brake wear and zinc in motor oil observed in Detroit have the potential of being a significant component in statistically established PM2.5 mortality rates. © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Atmospheric Environment
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com
Transition metals in coarse, fine,
very fine and ultra-fine particles from an interstate
highway transect near Detroit
Thomas A. Cahilla, ∗, David E. Barnesa, Jonathan A. Lawtona, Roger Millera, Nicholas Spadab, Robert D. Willisc, Sue Kimbroughd
a DELTAGroup,UniversityofCalifornia,Davis,CA95616,USA
b UniversityofHouston,Houston,TX,USA
c USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,NationalExposureResearchLaboratory,ResearchTrianglePark,NC27711,USA d USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,NationalRiskManagementResearchLaboratory,ResearchTrianglePark,NC27711,USA

1. Introduction
Enormous advances have been made in the past 40 years in reduc- ing particulate pollutants from highway vehicles, including the elim- ination of lead from gasoline. Additionally, important advances have been made in reducing emissions from diesel trucks by improved en- gine design, low-sulfur fuels, and especially diesel particulate filters.

However, studies show that highways continue to be a source of both coarse and fine particulate matter (PM) including known toxics such as diesel exhaust (Zhu et al., 2002; Karner et al., 2010; Cahill and Cahill, 2013). In addition, particles associated from vehicular wear such as from brake pads and drums are currently roughly equal to tailpipe emissions and are on track to exceed tail pipe emissions in the near future (Denier Van der Gon et al., 2013). Only limited data ∗ ∗Corresponding author.

Email address: [email protected] (T.A. Cahill)
are available on wear particles by size and composition, but a major source is known to be ultra-fine metals from abrasion of brake pads and drums (Cahill et al., 2014).

In vitro laboratory studies of nanoparticles raise concerns about the health impacts of highway emissions, especially very fine and ul- tra-fine metals due to their propensity for penetrating to the deepest portions of the lung and diffusing into the circulatory system (Lewis et al., 2005; Chen and Lippmann, 2009; Lippmann, 2009; Oberdorster et al., 2007; Denier Van der Gon et al., 2013). Additionally, epidemi- ological health studies continue to show that highway emissions are damaging to both pulmonary and cardiovascular systems of people living near highways (Cahill et al., 2011), with reduced lung function in children (Peters et al., 1999a,b); Gauderman et al., 2000; HEI, 2009; Lin and Peng, 2010; Karner et al., 2010). These data have been com- bined with data on the health impacts of roadway pollutants, including potential cancer impacts largely from diesel exhaust, and used to gen- erate estimated health impacts in models such as Emfac2007 (ARB, 2007).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.09.023
1352-2310/© 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cahill -- 00000324
AR002331
,: -· -- --

ELSEVIER

UNCORRECTED PROOF
2 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
A recent European survey noted that wear particles were approach- ing and would soon surpass exhaust particles near roadways, with un- certain health impacts. Their consensus statement concludes,“In light of the continuous increase of the relative contribution of non-exhaust emission to ambient PM, where it is becoming the dominant emission process for urban transport, it is more than timely to devote greater efforts to properly quantifying non-exhaust emissions and assessing health relevance.”(Denier Van der Gon et al., 2013).

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Uni- versity of Michigan conducted the Near-road Exposures to Urban Air Pollutants Study (NEXUS)– a research project to study the impact of vehicle emissions on near-road air quality, human exposures, and po- tential health effects. Components of NEXUS include but are not lim- ited to human exposures in near-road residences (Vette et al., 2013), studies of near roadway allergic impacts in mice (McGee et al., 2015).

The NEXUS aerosol component reported in this publication was de- signed and conducted to update our information on highway emissions and their potential human impact with a component on vehicular wear emissions.

1.1.Experimentalmethodologies

1.1.1.Samplingarray
Particles were measured from September 21 to October 30, 2010 on both sides of the Interstate 96 freeway 9 miles west of downtown Detroit. The I-96 monitoring location was established as part of a col- laborative research study conducted by the U.S. Environmental Pro- tection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation Fed- eral Highway Administration (FHWA) (US EPA, 2013). The test sec- tion was a 12-lane section of I-96 with an at-grade roadway config- uration aligned east to west. Obstructions from vegetation between the test array of four sites, which extended from 100 m south of the highway to 300 m north of the highway, were negligible, as seen in Fig. 1. As part of NEXUS, additional PM monitoring was conducted at these sites.

Particles were collected in 8 size ranges at sites 100 m south, 10 m north, 100 m north, and 300 m north of the highway, while ultra-fine particles were continuously collected at the 10 m north and 100 m north sites. (Table 1)All sampling sites were on the top of trailers or one-story buildings with minimal obstructions (approximately 4 m from ground to inlets). The exception was the 100 m south site that had heavy trees south of the site, which did not obstruct the air flow from the highway.

1.1.2.Weather
Wind direction and wind speed were measured continuously at the 100 m north site (Fig. 2). During most of the study winds were weak, and extensive periods of calms occurred, especially at night. Wind di- rections were most frequent from the northwest (315°) through north northeast (35°). Given the southeast to northwest orientation of the sampling array, an upwind/downwind analysis of I-96 traffic emis- sions is best conducted when winds are from the southeast to south- west sector.

Thus, in order to address the prime goal of the study, a small frac- tion of the entire five-week period was chosen for which there was a clean upwind-downwind profile along the array. Since the goal was to quantify aerosol transport downwind of the freeway, results were limited to periods when the upwind-downwind trajectory was within ±67° of the north-south axis across the east-west freeway with wind speeds >1 km/hr. Periods of extreme wind or rain events were ex- cluded as well as wind trajectories pointing back to strong upwind sources such as the Monroe coal-fired power plant.

In terms of duration, while any 3 h period provides a valid signa- ture in time, the ideal is several days in a row. The reasons include re- ducing the inherent 1½hr uncertainty in the elemental data set by the width of the x-ray analysis microprobe to roughly 30 min, which al Fig. 1. Monitoring sitetransect
array across I-96 west of Detroit established for the EPA/FHWA National Near Road Study and used as a component of the NEXUS study. I-96 runs east-west and Telegraph Road is the multi lane road running north-south to the west of the sampling sites.

Cahill -- 00000325
AR002332

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 3
Fig. 2. a) Wind directionand
rainfall, and b) wind speed, with the dotted box showing the periods with the wind from the south, 180° ±67°, measured at the 100 m north site. Data below the dashed line are calm periods with wind speed <1.0 km/hr. lows better accord with meteorology and traffic patterns. It also allows better sensitivity by summing the periods for averaging actions such as size profiles. Limiting the intensive to week days avoided the com- plexity of highly variable weekend conditions, especially in terms of the truck traffic.

1.2.Experimentaltechniques

1.2.1.Samplecollection
The primary aerosol collection instrument was the UC Davis DELTA Group rotating drum (DRUM) impactor (Cahill et al., 1985; Raabe et al., 1988; ) delivering aerosol samples in 8 size ranges: 10 to 5.0, 5.0 to 2.5, 2.5 to 1.15, 1.15 to 0.75, 0.75 to 0.56, 0.56 to 0.34,

0.34 to 0.26 and 0.29 to 0.09μm aerodynamic diameter. Samples were impacted at the rate of 4 mm/day onto 168 mm long, lightly greased Mylar foils, which were then transferred to plastic frames for analy- ses. Excellent agreement (r2 = 0.99, slope = 0.99± 0.011, and inter- cept = 14 ng/m3) was seen in a side by side comparison of the DRUM mass (summed over all stages including ultra-fines) versus a Califor- nia Air Resources Board PM2.5 Federal Reference Monitor (Cahill et al., 2014; Nichols, 2009, Supplemental Materials A).

For this study, a newly developed continuous ultra-fine stage was added at the 10 m north and 100 m north sites. These allow continu- ous collection of ultra-fine (<0.09μm) particles directly after the last stage of the DRUM and keyed to deliver a stretched Teflon filter strip exactly matching in time the rotating drum stages (Cahill and Barnes, 2009).

1.2.2.Sampleanalysis
Details of the accuracy and precision of the mass, optical, and elemental analyses of the DRUM are included in Supplemental Materials. The measurements were made in 3 h increments using 500 μm wide excitation sources, and included:
• Mass (soft beta ray transmission, Ni63 source, MDL = 0.7μg/m3). • Elements sodium through molybdenum, plus lead (Synchrotron-in- duced X-Ray Fluorescence (S-XRF), MDLs typically∼ 0.1 ng/m3). • Diesel soot (optical attenuation, 380–820 nm, 50 nm bites, Ocean Optics spectrophotometer).

Cahill -- 00000326
AR002333
- Wind direction at 100 m north • Rainfall (cm x 100)
vi ., ., c,
~ 200 - - --++-+-+-,1-H+---_.,.._---._..---+<,_.., ___ _.._. ___ --ll- ___ -lH+-H-> ------«---¥--'- - ----l-+ '----IH C:
,g
<J
~ a 100
0 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1
October , 2010
Wind speed, 100 m North
12 10
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2 0
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-•-~,-- ------ .... -- - -----------
29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
October, 201 O

UNCORRECTED PROOF
4 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx

1.3.Blackcarbondata
Measurements of black carbon were also collected at the I-96 sites based on optical absorption (880 nm) using a Magee Scientific rack mount aethalometer (US EPA, 2013) and were compared to the DRUM optical attenuation.

1.4.Trafficdata
Traffic volume during the study period showed a highly repro- ducible weekly pattern (Fig. 3). Weekday traffic averaged 175,000 cars and light trucks/day along with 12,000 heavy-duty trucks/day, or 6.6% trucks. Weekend traffic averaged 110,000 cars and light trucks/day, and about 3% trucks. Traffic data were collected as part of the EPA/FHWA study in 5 min increments individually for each of the 12 traffic lanes and for 6 classes of vehicle by length: 10 ft. (3 m), 30 ft. (9 m), 40 ft. (12 m), 50 ft. (15 m), 60 ft. (18 m), and 70 ft. (21 m) to 80 ft. (24.2 m), the maximum length allowed (US EPA, 2013). Traffic moved freely on the test section during the study, with a mean speed of 69± 3 miles/hr (110± 5 km/hr), with little braking activity. Below we plot the data reduced to one hour averages over all 12 lanes, using the 10 ft. (3 m) and 30 ft. (9 m) categories for cars and pickup trucks (light-duty vehicles or LDVs, mostly gasoline powered) and 40 ft. (12 m) to 70 ft. (24.2 m) for heavy trucks (mostly diesel).

The very strong morning and afternoon peaks seen in the light duty vehicle (LDV) data is much less pronounced in the truck data, which tends to be more uniform all day. Traffic data were not available be- fore Sep. 29.

1.5.Resultsofthe5-weekstudy
The meteorology encountered during most of the study resulted in aerosol concentrations that, even at the close-in 10 m north site, displayed little or no correlation with the local traffic volume (Fig. 3). In Figs. 4–10 below we show four examples of typically regional particles and three examples of particles likely to have local road- way influence. Regional particles include PM10 and PM2.5 mass, sil- icon (soil), sulfur (sulfates) and fine potassium (wood smoke). Par- ticles with known roadway sources include zinc in coarse mode Fig. 3. Traffic measuredon
I-96 west of Detroit on the EPA/FHWA National Near Road Study site. Heavy diesel truck numbers are scaled by a factor of 15 to facilitate comparison.

Weekends occurred on Sept. 25–26, Oct. 2–3, Oct. 9–10, Oct. 16–17, Oct. 23–24, and Oct. 30–31.

Fig. 4. PM10 and PM2.5 mass (withoutultra-fines
< 0.09μm), at the 10 m north site. Each data point represents a 3 h measurement. The notation“tm” denotes a 6 mm long integral blank for timing and background subtraction validation.

Cahill -- 00000327
AR002334
20 ~----------------------------~
~
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~
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~ Heavy diesels> 40 ft (x 15) - Cars and light trucks < 40 15 t------,-,----------++....--:----r--.-r+-11------ --!T-t-,------, § ~ 10 f--llH .... II-- -H----.im-lls-tl- - --...llHIIHll ~ - D-IIHl-1-111 - ~ -IHll-a..._ -----, ~~
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l~ 2D
16 10
6 0
29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1
October 2010
- FMIOnuss · - • - F'llll2.6 nuss
~ ~ ~ 25 ~ ~ 2 4 6 8 ~ fl ~ ~ ff ~ ~ ~ 25 ~ ~
~ Z 25 ~ ~ 1 3 6 7 9 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2D ~ ~ 25 ~ ~
S::fAe,, let O:tdJer

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 5
Fig. 5. Silicon from10
to 0.09μm derived from soil. The notation“tm” denotes a 6 mm long integral blank for timing and background.

Fig. 6. Sulfur (forsulfate,
x 3.0) at 10 m north.
(5.0–1.15 μm) from tire wear, zinc in the very fine mode (0.26 > Dp > 0.09μm) from motor oil combustion, and black carbon (diesel soot) (Malm et al., 1994; Supplemental Materials 1).

Zinc is seen routinely both in transects from the roadway and in the ambient atmosphere. Zinc at the 10 m north site was highly variable in concentration, with highest concentrations typically occurring when the site was upwind of I-96. Note that unlike the potassium in Fig. 7, there are strong sources of coarse zinc not associated with the very fine zinc. Since there were no known sources close to the NEXUS site, the calculated rate of settling favors regional industrial processes with stack emissions.

Optical absorption was measured by two very different techniques, namely light transmission through the DRUM Mylar foils using a multi-wavelength optical spectrometer (Fig. 9), and direct measure- ment of optical absorption (babs) from an aethalometer (Fig. 10; data provided by the EPA). The average babs in units of ng/m3 of Black Carbon (BC ≅ soot) for the entire period was 648 ng/m 3 at 100 m south, 1014 ng/m3 at 10 m north, 638 ng/m3 at 100 m north, 438 ng/m3 at 300 m north, showing the impact of soot from the freeway.

1.6.Resultsofthe3-dayintensive
The conclusion from the aethalometer data is that even close to the freeway, regional sources are a major factor compared to roadway par- ticles for much of the five week study. Thus, for the remainder of this report, we will focus on those periods during which the criteria for a clean upwind-downwind profile were achieved. The results of the transects can then be compared to the regional particles seen during the entire study, isolating roadway impacts.

In order to identify those periods that met these criteria, nonpara- metric trajectory analysis (NTA) was performed using the meteoro- logical data collected at the 100 m north site (Henry et al., 2011).

Cahill -- 00000328
AR002335
1000
900
C"l 800
-E 700
II)
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lU 500 c,
0 400
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300 ttl
z 200
100
0 800
700
C"l 600 -E
II)
500 E
ttl 400 C)
0 300 C
ttl 200 z
100
0 Detroit transect 1 0 m north
Silicon (for soil, - x 4)
- - 10 to 5 .0 - 2.5 to 1.15 - 0.75 to 0.56 - 0.34 to 0.26 - 5 .0 to 2.5 - 1.15 to 0.75 - 0.56 to 0.34 - 0.26 to 0.09 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 tm 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 tm 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 September October
Detroit transect 10 m north
Sulfur(for ammonium sulfate x 4.125)
- -10 to 5.0 - 2.5 to 1.15 - 0.75 to 0 .56 - 0.34 to 0.26 - 5.0to2 .5 - 1.15to0 .75 - 0.56to0 .34 - 0.26to0 .09
23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 tm 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 September October

UNCORRECTED PROOF
6 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Fig. 7. Potassium at10
m north, with coarse modes derived from soil and fine modes largely from wood smoke and industrial combustion processes.

Fig. 8. Zinc from 10μm
to 0.09μm at 10 m north.

Hourly averaged met data were aggregated into 3 h averages to bet- ter match the 3 h aerosol data. Fig. 11 shows the fraction of time in each 3 h period when the wind was blowing across I-96 from the south to the north. Upon early analysis of the data, an additional criterion was added, namely avoidance of sulfur (MDL = 5 ng/m3) and sele- nium-rich (Se and As, MDL = 0.1 ng/m3) particles transported by SSE winds that passed over the Ford Rouge River complex, other indus- trial sources, and the large Monroe coal fired power plant 34 miles (54 km) south (185°) of the array (Fig. 6). This eliminated the po- tential October 25 day, while October 23 and 24 were both weekend days and impacted by upwind aerosol sources. October 30 was also eliminated as a weekend day. Although October 8 and 20 met the trajectory criteria, both had extended periods of calm winds making clean upwind-downwind analysis uncertain. A final criterion for the upwind-downwind study was that the 10 m north site should be mini- mally impacted by Telegraph Road, a multi lane road west of the I-96 sites (Fig. 1). Fig. 12 shows the subset of trajectories for which the 10 m north site was downwind of I-96 and without significant influ- ence from Telegraph Road.

Although there was some influence of Telegraph Road traffic on Oct. 27 and 28 at the 10 m north site, the distance to Telegraph road was much farther than at the 100 m north site and a belt of trees in a residential neighborhood interfered with wind and aerosol transport. (Fig. 1). Also, Telegraph Road traffic volume was a tiny fraction of I-96 traffic volume. For these reasons, the impact should be small, confirmed by the low aethalometer soot readings (Fig. 13 below). The 300 m north site, on the other hand, is much closer to Telegraph Road and was probably significantly impacted by Telegraph Road traffic for much of the study period. The longest period during the NEXUS cam- paign that met all criteria for a north-south transect occurred from Oct 26 through Oct. 28, 24–3 h periods, shown in the dashed box in Fig.

11. Cahill -- 00000329
AR002336
150
C')
_g 100
"' E
!!!
0)
0 C: 50 RS
z
40 (')
-E 30
(I)
E
~ 20
C)
0 C:
~ 10
0 0
Detroit transect 10 m north
Potassium
- - 10 to 5.0 - 2.5 to 1.15 - 0 .75 to 0 .56 - 0.34 to 0 .26 - 5 .0 to 2 .5 - 1.15 to 0 .75 - 0 .56 to 0 .34 - 0 .26 to 0 .09 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 tm 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 tm 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 September October
Detroit transect 10 m north
Zinc
- -10 to 5.0 - 2.5 to 1.15 - 0.75 to 0.56 - 0.34 to 0.26 - 5.0 to 2.5 - 1.15 to 0.75 - 0.56 to 0.34 - 0.26 to 0.09 21 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 tm 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 September October

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 7
Fig. 9. Optical extinctionat
two wavelengths for very fine particles at the 10 m north site.

Fig. 10. Optical absorption(babs)
from an aethalometer at both 10 m north and 100 m south.

The wind speed for the 3-day intensive averaged 10.7± 3.0 km/ hr, and the average direction was SSW, 208± 43°. However, the 10 m north site was in the turbulent mixed zone of the northernmost lane of the freeway, as evidenced by the winds from passing trucks. Thus, this site was impacted by one lane of the freeway under most wind condi- tions, representing only a small fraction of all traffic volume on the 12 lane freeway.

1. Validation of the meteorological analysis
Validation of the Oct. 26–28 choice for the upwind-downwind study was obtained by correlation of soot and typical roadway parti- cles with the daily daytime traffic maxima as shown in Figs. 13 and

14. The days chosen for the intensive are in the dotted box area. Data are from the 10 m north site.

During the intensive period, the calcium (roadbed abrasion) and iron (vehicle “wear”) particles (Fig. 14a and b) are correlated with traffic volume (Fig. 14d), with daytime peaks and nighttime low val- ues, unlike during most of the prior sampling period. Both elements are strongly enhanced over Earth crustal average, calcium by a factor of 5, and iron by a factor of 10, suggesting resuspension of roadbed concrete erosion and vehicle“wear” particles by wind and vehicular turbulence. There was almost no braking of vehicles during the study, so concentrations of the very fine Fe, Ni, Cu and Zn particles charac- teristic of braking (Cahill et al., 2014) are limited.

Highway zinc coarse particles (Fig. 14c) are enhanced by the zinc in tires and brake wear, while fine and ultra-fine zinc are observed in both brake wear and the burning of the zinc thiophosphate stabilizer used in many motor and lubricating oils, including diesels (Zielinska et al., 2003).

2. Size profiles of the elements
Fig. 15a, b and c plot particle size distributions during the intensive for crustal species (a), transition metals and lead (b) and sulfur (c). The mean size distributions for crustal elements peak in the supra-micron particles, indicating a mechanical source, such as mechanical wear and resuspension of contaminated soils. Iron is very interesting, as it peaks in the 2.5–5.0μm mode but in concentrations far in excess of what would be expected in soil.

Cahill -- 00000330
AR002337
2 8 1.5
u
C:
~
o'i c.,
a
0 0.5
0 Very fine aerosols 0.26 > Dp > 0.09 micrometers
m Far red , 780 nm - Far blue, 380 nm
21 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 tm 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 Im 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2 September October
Aethalometer Data
- 10 m north D 100 m south

6.-------------------------------,
5 1--------- -+------------------ -,----,
~4---------~~--------------------, </I C:
~~ 3----------~---------~----------, J:l 8
~2---•~----~--~---,--~---~~-----~---,
28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 3
27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2
September October November

UNCORRECTED PROOF
8 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Fig. 11. Trajectory analysisfor
the 100 m north site isolating those periods when the northern sites were approximately downwind of I-96 and the 100 m south site was a clean upwind background site. The period chosen for the intensive is shown in the dashed box, October 26 through October 28.

Fig. 12. Trajectory analysisisolat
ing those periods when the 100 m south site was a clean upwind background for 100 m north. The 10 m north site had less Telegraph Road interfer- ence.

Size distributions for transition metals (Fig. 15b) also peak in the supra-micron range. Iron (brake drums and rust), copper (brake pads), zinc (stabilizing agent in lube oil, tire wear), and lead (“legacy lead” from past emissions) are known to be associated with traffic (Cahill et al., 2011). Note that in addition to a coarse mode (re-suspended road dust), zinc, lead and copper also exhibit an ultra-fine mode. Very fine and ultra-fine zinc is most likely associated with lubricating oil.

A very different profile is shown for sulfur (Fig. 15c). Typically the accumulation mode around 0.5μm represents regional ammonium sulfate, while very fine and ultra-fine sulfate has local combustion ori- gins, including from diesel combustion in trucks and cars.

3. Transects in the three day intensive: Coarse (5.0 > Dp > 2.5) parti- cles – experimental
For the time-resolved coarse particles, we used only part of the distribution since the time resolution of the coarsest DRUM stage, 10 to 5.0μm, was large enough to blur the day/night differences. (Supplemental Materials B).

Results of the highway transect (Fig. 16) show highest concentra- tions at the near freeway site at 10 m north, supporting traffic-derived sources. Concentrations fall off from the roadway to 100 m north, but concentrations of the coarsest particles increase again at 300 m north, especially for crustal species. The presence of the heavily traveled Telegraph Road approximately 380 m west of the 300 m site (Fig. 1) as well as local exposed soils near the site might be contributory fac- tors. In addition, the sampler inlet cut point may have been raised by an estimated 10% due to a non-standard, slightly wider inlet slot. This effect disappeared for the PM2.5 particles which are not influenced by coarse local soils.

4. Transects in the three day intensive: Coarse
(10 μm > Dp > 1.15μm) particles– theoretical
I-96 traffic during the intensive was typical of the entire 5 week period (Fig. 2). For modeling purposes, traffic data for the intensive was broken into two periods: daytime (6 a.m. through 9 p.m.), and nighttime (9 p.m. through 6 a.m.). Daytime traffic averaged 10,479 Cahill -- 00000331
AR002338
1 "C
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~ 0 ,::,

0.6 a,
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29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2
30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 3
-
-
-
-
September October November
D Trajectories downwind of 1-96 but not downwind of Telegraph Road I
I
I
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t
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29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2
30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 3
-
September October November

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 9
Fig. 13. Aethalometer data on
optical absorption (∼soot) from the EPA/FHWA National Near Road Study. The days chosen for the intensive are in the shaded area. October 25 and earlier days were rejected because of substantial upwind aerosol pollution seen in Figs. 5–7. cars and light trucks/hr, and 824 heavy trucks/hr, while the numbers at night were 3874 and 187 vehicles/hr respectively.

For the theoretical analysis of the data, all coarse particles from 10 to 1.15μm were used so as to allow comparisons to other work.

We used a Sliding Box Model Estimate of the I-96 10 to 1.15μm mass emission rate for the 3-day intensive. The“sliding box model” (Cahill and Feeney, 1973, Feeney et al., 1975; Courtney et al., 1978) is a well-tested way to measure roadway emissions when one has ac- cess to both upwind and downwind information on pollutants, a flat terrain, and a lateral wind across the roadway. The dimensions of the box are set by the roadway width, including lateral turbulence, and the top of the mixed zone, set by vehicle height and velocity. The lat- ter is the greatest uncertainty, but extensive data on the height of the mixed zone were taken in Los Angles in 1973 and used in several stud- ies. The length of the box is arbitrary, and we use 1.6 km, which was needed since the project accepted winds at± 45° from normal and still had to meet the line source assumption even 300 m downwind.

The box so defined represents a volume into which pollutants are uni- formly mixed by vehicular turbulence. The box then slides laterally across the freeway while vehicles are emitting into the box. A new box takes its place upwind in a smooth transition and the process repeats.

The model was validated with data taken in 80 two-hr up- wind-downwind periods of lead transport from five freeway sites in 1972 (Cahill and Feeney, 1973; Feeney et al., 1975). Since accurate traffic data and meteorology were available and emissions of auto- motive lead were precisely known from the literature (Habibi, 1973), the sliding box model gave a roadway edge prediction at the at-grade freeway section of 4.0± 0.4 μg/m3 for 5000 vehicles/hr. The three day average measured at the at-grade site was in excellent agreement,

4.0 ± 0.15 μg/m3. The sliding box model was also successfully ap- plied in General Motors test facility studies of sulfur from catalytic converters (Courtney et al., 1978)
Sliding box model calculations were run separately for daytime, 6 a.m. to 9 p.m., and nighttime, 9 p.m. to 6 a.m., keyed to the traffic flow. Traffic flow, wind velocities were also separated in the analy- sis. It was assumed that trucks had 10 times the emission rates as cars (Gertler et al., 2003). Table 2 below shows the analysis for cars and trucks for calcium, and then the net result for calcium, iron, and zinc.

Coarse calcium and iron are enhanced by enrichment factors 5 and 10 times Earth crustal averages respectively (Fig. 14a and b), likely a consequence of the erosion of the concrete highway and iron-rich debris from vehicles. The transition and heavy metals, vanadium, copper, zinc, and lead, are enormously enhanced compared to Earth crustal averages and represent vehicular debris, including brake pads, brake drums and tire wear.

In this analysis, the unknown emission rates were calculated by matching the predicted concentrations to the measured concentrations at the 10 m north site after correcting for concentrations at the 100 m south site.

In Table 2, the emission rates in mg/km were fit to the NEXUS background corrected concentrations (μg/m3) at 10 m north (Fig. 14a–c). Matching the upwind-corrected data at the 10 m north site for freeway impact to the predicted concentrations, emission rates of 1.5 mg/km for calcium, 2.8 mg/km for iron, and 0.09 mg/km for zinc are calculated, with truck emission rates 10 times these values.

Direct comparisons are possible to similar analyses in Los An- geles in 1972 from an at-grade concrete freeway. The NEXUS free- way-sourced calcium level in the mixed zone, 0.24μg/m3, is about 1/ 5 of that seen in 1973, 1.13μg/m3. Note that the Los Angeles freeway had not seen rain in over 2 months, while rain fell about once/week in the NEXUS study. For iron, which has both a concrete component and one associated with vehicle wear, the NEXUS values are 0.52μg/m3, versus 1.43μg/m3 in Los Angeles. For zinc, the NEXUS level of 0.017 μg/m3 is far less than the 0.22μg/m3 seen in Los Angeles in 1973.

The California data (Cahill et al., 2003) for 15 > Dp > 5.0μm parti- cles from tire wear were run through the sliding box model of Table 2 and yielded 120 ng/m3 of zinc, about 10 times what was observed in NEXUS for < 5.0μm particles (Fig. 14c). However, the upper cut point for the Los Angeles particles was∼15 μm, which increased the numbers, while better high mileage tires and aerosol size differences reduce the NEXUS value.

A very similar protocol (upwind-downwind samplers, rotating drum impactors, x-ray analysis) was utilized in Switzerland (Bukowiecki et al., 2010) for an extensive series of measurements to separate vehicular wear from exhaust emissions. The Swiss results showed most vehicular wear particles in the 10 to 1μm range. The vehicular wear results were 50± 13 mg/km per vehicle for light duty Cahill -- 00000332
AR002339
4 3
"' ~
~ lJl 2
"' :J .0 0 .c
I-
24 Aethalometer Data
10 m north - - - 100 m north ~ 100 m south
25 26 27
October
28 29 30

UNCORRECTED PROOF
10 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Fig. 14. a, b, andc.

Typical roadway particles during the Oct. 26 through Oct 28 intensive (in shaded box). d. Traffic from Fig. 3 on the same time scales (trucks x 15). vehicles, 288± 72 mg/km for heavy duty vehicles, with 3% brake wear, 56% suspended/abraded road dust, and no evident tire wear.

This gives roughly 3.2 mg/km brake wear, assuming 6% trucks in their mix. If the NEXUS iron and zinc were all from brake wear, it would amount to roughly 5.2 mg/km, similar to the Swiss results.

This is an overestimate, since the NEXUS iron value should be re Cahill -- 00000333
AR002340
..,
900
800
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Calcium
-- 5.0 to 2 .5 - - 2.5 to 1 .15 -- 1.15 to 0.75 micrometers ~------------------~--------------------~------,
23 23
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26 Iron
-- 5.0 to 2 .5 · - - 2.5 to 1 .15
27 28
1 .15 to 0. 75 micrometers
I ✓
.l...l.lww 1..lal..l...l.L~ ' ' .I..J..,.I,,,~---- -~~~~~~ 25 27 29
26 28
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-- 5.0 to 2.5 - - 2.5 to 1.15 -- 1.15 to 0.75 micrometers ~------------------~--------------------~------~
~
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
October
c::J Truck traffic (scaled x 15) -- Car Traffic
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Octo ber

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 11
Fig. 15. Size distributions ofa)
crustal species; b) transition metals and lead; and c) sulfur at the 10 m north site during the NEXUS intensive. duced due to iron from vehicle debris and roadbed wear.

5. Transects in the three day intensive: Fine PM2.5 particles – experi- mental
Fig. 17a and b shows transects for fine crustal species and fine transition metals and lead, respectively, during the Oct. 26–28 inten- sive. Fine crustal species, like coarse, show a near-freeway enhance- ment, especially for iron, enhanced by a factor of 20 over typical soils. The fall-off versus distance is slower than with coarse species, with aluminum and silicon being essentially the same at the 10 m north and 100 m north sites The 300 m north site is almost identical to the 100 m south site, consistent with a regional background.

The data clearly show the impact of highway derived particles.

First, the aluminum and silicon have about the correct ratio for Earth's crustal averages, and therefore represent crustal materials either in the roadway aggregate or the surrounding soils. The parking Cahill -- 00000334
AR002341
300
('") 250
,€ 200 VJ
E
~ 150 o
0 100 c;
~
z 50
0 10
..,
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"iii
E 6
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Cl 4 0 c;
~
2 z
0 100
90 § 80
VJ 70
E 60
:! 50
g, 40
ij 30
z 20
10 0
10 m north, south winds Oct. 26 - Oct. 28
--- Silicon • .. Calcium · ... Iron -- Potassium
-.. - •""
< 0.09 0.25 to 0.34 0.56 to 0.75 1.15 to 2.5 5.0 to 10

0.09 to 0.26 0.34 to 0.56 0.75 to 1.15 2.5 to 5.0
Particle aerodynamic diameter (micrometers )
10 m north, south winds Oct. 26 - Oct. 28
- Copper -,...... Nickel ..... · Chromium ·- • Lead
Zinc -- Vanadium
/---
/
'
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/
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Particle aerodynamic diameter (micrometers )
10 m north, south winds Oct. 26 - Oct. 28
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I T
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.,
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Particle aerodynamic diameter (micrometers)

UNCORRECTED PROOF
12 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Fig. 16. Coarse aerosol transectduring
the Oct. 26–28 intensive: a) crustal species; b) transition metals and lead.

Table 1
Distance ofsamplers
from roadway median and nearest active traffic lane of the 10 lane freeway. We also include the relative roadway impacts on cancer from the widely used model Emfac2007 (ARB, 2007).

Site
Distance from
median
Distance from closest traffic
lane
Relative cancer
impact
100 m
south
92 m south 71 m south 0.13 upwind
10 m
north
26 m north 10 m north 1.00 downwind
100 m
north
142 m north 100 m north 0.25 downwind
300 m
north
332 m north 270 m north 0.10 downwind
area just upwind ofthe
100 m north site may also be a source of such
materials. Calcium, however, is enhanced by a factor of about 3 over Earth's crustal average, and is consistent with roadway abrasion from the concrete highway. Iron is enhanced by a factor of about 10, which is consistent with brake wear and resuspended rust in a region where road salting is a common source of vehicle degradation. Fine cop- per (Fig. 17b) also shows enhancement, possibly from brake pads. In summary, fine concentrations of these resuspended soil and vehicular wear particles are about½ of the observed mass, similar to European estimates that “wear” particles are about equal to tailpipe emissions (Denier Van der Gon et al., 2013).

All the non-crustal elements as well as zinc show a near freeway enhancement during the Oct. 26–28 intensive. All are strongly en- hanced over what would be expected from soil, suggesting roadway pollution. The iron is about 16×the copper, while the iron/copper ratio from braking is only about 3. Thus, most of the iron is not from brake drums and pads, but probably represents re-suspended rust particles from degraded cars and trucks. Recall that little vehicular braking oc- curred in this freeway section. The 300 m north site is almost identical to the 100 m south site, establishing a small regional background. The fall-off versus distance for zinc is much slower, and the upwind value elevated, showing regional fine zinc aerosol sources. The enhanced zinc at 10 m north may be due to the zinc thiophosphate oil additive.

6. Transects in the three day intensive: Fine PM2.5 particles – theoret- ical
In the sliding box model, we assumed an I-96 PM2.5 mass emis- sion rate (row labeled“Source PM2.5 mass” in Table 3) based on re- cently measured car and truck emission rates for PM2.5 in the eastern US (Gertler et al., 2003). The sliding box model was then used to cal- culate PM2.5 values downwind of the freeway which were compared to measured PM2.5 concentrations.

The results shown in Table 3 can be compared to the PM concen- trations measured at the 10 m north site which was just on the edge of the lateral turbulence zone. The 24 h average PM2.5 estimated for the 3 day intensive was 1.6± 0.5 μg/m3, versus the measured 2.0± 0.7 Cahill -- 00000335
AR002342

5.0 to 2.5 micron aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
100 m S 10m N 100 m N 300 mN
Transect south to north

5.0 to 2.5 micron aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
14 ~------------------~
M 12 1-------- -------------- --1
E vi 10 t------- - - -"c-------------1
E S f----- ~ ~~.----4,-----------~ (II ,_
~ 6 1----- - - --~--_,,_ ________ ___.
0 ~ 4 f--- r'Cf-- -:7' ....... .c-- ~ ~ ------=,._.-=----~ z 2
0 100 m S 10 m N 100 m N 300 m N
Transect south to north
Aluminum
-Silicon
-Calcium
-Iron
-
Zinc
-Copper
Lead
-Vanadium
-lron/30
·-. -

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 13
Table 2
Sliding boxmodel
of coarse (10 > Dp > 1.15μm) particles for daytime periods during the NEXUS 3 day intensive. LDV = Light duty vehicles, cars and light trucks (Class 1, 2); HDV = Heavy duty vehicles, trucks (Class 3–6).

Site I-96 Detroit I-96 Detroit I-96 Detroit I-96 Detroit I-96 Detroit Date October 26–28, 2010 Calcium Calcium Calcium Iron Zinc Time 15 h blocks Days 6–21 Days 6–21 Days 6–21 Days 6–31 Days 6–21 Vehicle type Classes LDV HDV Total cars and trucks Total cars and trucks Total cars and trucks Fit to data mg/km 1.5 15.0 1.5, 15 2.8, 28.3 0.09, 0.90 Box dimensions height m 5 5 5 5 5
width m 54 54 54 54 54
length m 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Box volume x 1000 m3 270 270 270 270 270
Traffic vehicles/hr 10,479 824 11,303 11,303 11,303
Speed mi/hr 69 69 69 69 69
Speed km/hr 110.4 110.4 110.4 110.4 110.4
vehicles in box # vehicles 95 7 102 102 102
Emissions mg/min 142 112 254 480 15.3
Concentration in box per minute μg/m3 0.53 0.41 0.94 1.78 0.057 Wind velocity m/second 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Sliding box translation Seconds 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.42 17.4 Sliding box translation Fraction of minute 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 Calculated concentration at 10 m north μ μg/m3 0.153 0.120 0.273 0.517 0.0164 Measured concentrations 10 m north μ μg/m3 0.242 ± ±0.050 0.516 ± ±0.05 0.0169 ± ±0.008 Los Angeles 1972

5.0–15 μm mg/mi 6.2, 62 8, 80 1.2, 12
Concentration in mixed zone μ μg/m3 1.13 1.43 0.22
Fig. 17. Fine aerosol transectduring
the Oct. 26–28 intensive: a) crustal species; b) transition metals and lead.

Cahill -- 00000336
AR002343
PM2.5 ( 2.5 to 0.09) aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
M 250 t--------.,...--------------,
_§
r,i 200 t------- - - --"<-------------,
E r: 150 t------------~---- ..,.._-------------1
Cl
0 ij 100 1---- ~ ___,,,.,,,.==-----="""'--= c-'ll l.:?' "--.::---------i z
100 m S 10 m N 100 m N 300m N
Transect south to north
PM 2.5 (2.5 to 0.09) aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
100 m S 10 m N 100 m N 300 m N
Transect south to north
Aluminum
~
Silicon
-Calcium
Iron
-
Zinc
-Copper
Lead
-Vanadium
-lron/30
- . -

UNCORRECTED PROOF
14 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016)xxx-xxx
Table 3
Sliding boxmodel
of the three day intensive, when meteorological and traffic conditions were suitable. Also shown are the Swiss data (2010) and Los Angeles data (1973) estimated from measured values.

Emission rate estimates Gertler et al., 2003
eastern US
Gertler et al., 2003,
eastern US
Gertler et al., 2003,
eastern US
Bukowiecki et al., 2010,
Swiss freeways
Cahill and Feeney, 1973,
LA freeways
Time 15 h
increment
Daytime 6 to 21 Daytime 6 to 21 24 h average 24 h average 24 h average Vehicle type Classes LDV HDV All vehicles All vehicles All vehicles Source PM2.5 mass mg/km 14 135 14/135 50/288 1056
Box dimensions height m 5 5 5 5 5
width m 54 54 54 54 54
length m 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Box volume x 1000 m3 270 270 270 270 270
Traffic vehicles/hr 10,479 824 7682 7682 7682
Speed km/hr 110 110 110 110 110
vehicles in box # vehicles 95 7 70 70 70
Emissions mg/min 1329 1008 1528 4538 17,636
Concentration in box per minute μg/m3 4.9 3.7 5.7 16.9 65.3 Wind velocity m/second 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Sliding box translation Seconds 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 Sliding box translation Fraction of
minute

0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
Calculated PM2.5 Concentration μg/m3 1.43, 1.08 0.53, 0.25 1.6 ± ±0.5 4.9 ± ±1.2 19.0 ± ±3 Size ranges μg/m3 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM2.5 PM10 PM5.0
Measured PM2.5 Concentrations
(some estimated)
μg/m3 2.0 ± ±0.7 3.1 ± ±1(est) 16 ± ±2 (est)
μg/m3. Notethat
the Gertler et al., 2003 emission values were for Cal-
ifornia cars and fuels.

Table 3 also includes estimates of the 10 m north concentrations based on the Swiss (Bukowiecki et al., 2010) and Los Angeles (Habibi, 1973; Cahill and Feeney, 1973) freeway emission rates. The Swiss study gave PM10 emission rates of 50± 13 mg/km for light duty vehicles, and 288± 72 mg/km for heavy duty vehicles. Apply- ing these emission rates to the NEXUS configuration, one would pre- dict about 4.9 μg/m3 PM10 mass at the freeway edge, slightly less than the 10μg/m3 to 19μg/m3 PM2.5 values reported as the traffic-im- pacted Central European average (Denier Van der Gon et al., 2013).

The Swiss data included about½ roadway crustal particles, which would likely reduce their 4.9μg/m3 PM10 values to around 3.1μg/m3 of PM2.5.

The right hand column of Table 3 is the predicted 24 h PM5.0 mass at the 10 m north site using the emission rates from the 1973 Los An- geles study (Habibi, 1973). The mean estimated PM2.5 mass concen- tration of 19μg/m3, would also have included 2.7μg/m3 of lead. Mak- ing the correction for presumed coarse roadway wear particles, the 1973 PM5.0 data would be reduced to roughly 16μg/m3 equivalent PM2.5 in the NEXUS configuration.

7. Transects in the three day intensive: Very fine
(0.26 μm > Dp > 0.09μm) particles
Very fine particles (Fig. 18) were less impacted by distance from the freeway compared to fine and coarse particles. These results rein- force the behavior seen in the Los Angeles I-710 studies (Fig. 19, Zhu et al., 2002) in which very fine and ultra-fine components extended both upwind and downwind from the array with little change in con- centration with distance from the freeway once one was farther away than about 150 m (see Fig.19 ).

1.7.Ultra-fineparticles
The development of a means to measure ultra-fine particles as a function of time allows for the first time the ability to match com- positionally-resolved ultra-fine particles to potential sources and me- teorology. Two such units were built and tested to run behind the DELTA 8 DRUM, which has a validated lower cut point of 0.09μm.

Thus, for this study, ultra-fine particles are particles having aerody- namic diameters <0.09μm. These two units were placed at the 10 m north site and the main site at 100 m north, and ran for 5 weeks to match the 8 DRUMs.

The ultra-fine data did not have an upwind site, but the agreement between the 10 m north and 100 m north sites is confirmation of a re- gional distribution. The major exception to this pattern was optical at- tenuation (Fig. 13), which in the 0.26 > Dp > 0.09μm size mode is al- most entirely soot, largely from diesel trucks. We did not measure soot in the DRUM ultra-fine mode.

An examination of the 3 day intensive period at 10 m north showed that, of the four elements known to be present in the ultra-fine size ranges from traffic, zinc and iron show some modest correlation with daytime traffic peaks (Fig. 21). Recall, however, that relatively little braking occurs on this stretch of I-96.

Ultra-fine particles at the 100 m north site showed essentially no correlation with daytime traffic, in accord with the factor of∼10 re- duction seen in previous studies (Cahill and Feeney, 1973; Zhu et al., 2002; Emfac2007). For diesel-generated ultra-fine sulfur, (Zielinska et al., 2004), the freeway contribution is largely lost in high levels of ul- tra-fine sulfur associated with upwind sources possibly including the Monroe coal-fired power plant.

2. Discussion
The particles in the NEXUS study ranged from coarse concrete erosion and resuspended roadway particles contaminated with tire and brake drum debris, to very fine and ultra-fine particles generated by traffic and diverse regional sources.

The behavior of the particles during the three day transect inten- sive was roughly as expected, with coarser particle concentrations de- clining rapidly downwind while fine and especially very fine particle concentrations dropped more slowly, as shown in Figs. 16–18.

The agreement between the predictions of the sliding box model and the observed near-roadway PM2.5 concentrations (Table 3) gives confidence that literature emission rates used in the model must be close to reality. The results also highlight the enormous improvement in vehicle tailpipe emissions in the past 40 years.

Cahill -- 00000337
AR002344

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 15
Fig. 18. Very fine aerosoltransect
during the Oct. 26–28 intensive. a) crustal species; b) transition metals and lead.

Fig. 19. Transect ofInterstate
710 in Los Angeles from Zhu et al. (2002). Superimposed are lead data from 1973 (Cahill and Feeney, 1973; Feeney et al., 1975). The arrow marks the distance of the 100 m north site from the I-96 median in the present study.

The situation with the ultra-fine particles, on the other hand, in- dicates a dominance of regional concentrations little affected by the nearby freeway traffic with the striking exception of optical absorp- tion (diesel soot) as seen in both optical spectroscopy from the DRUM finest stages and the aethalometer data (Fig. 13). The ul- tra-fine particles have elemental signatures consistent with brake wear and zinc in motor oil, but the concentrations are small, consistent with little braking on that section of I-96 during the 3 day intensive.

Cahill -- 00000338
AR002345
C")
_§
(/J
E ro ...

Cl
0 C: ro z
(")
E
-(/J
E ('ll
I..

Cl
0 C:
('ll
z
"' <I)
:,
cij
>
<I)
>
~
<ii
Cl'.'.

Very fine (0.26 to 0.09) aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
100 m S 10 m N 100 m N 300m N
Transect south to north
Very fine (0.26 to 0.09) aerosol transect during NEXUS
South winds Oct. 26 through Oct. 28
5 4
3 2
0 ... 'Ill -
... ,,. - ... .. ,.... ... .. ... - -----...
----
~
---
......_
=:::::-.
100 m S 10 m N 100 m N 300 m N
Transect south to north
Aluminum
~
Silicon
-Calcium
-Iron
-
Zinc
-Copper
-Lead
-Vanadium
-lron/30
-•-
- CO - Black Carbon - Number - Lead (1974)
1000
900
800 1----------- •1--,,..._ __ _. Location of 100 111 north 700 site from I-96 rnedian
600
500
400
300
· - .... ■ - ■ - • ■ 11111 ■ •
.. ,. .
200
100
0 -240 -160 -80 0 80 160 240 320 400
-200 -120 -40 40 120 200 280 360
Upwind Distance from Freeway 710 (m) Downwind

UNCORRECTED PROOF
16 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
Fig. 20. Ultra-fine sulfur,potassium,
and zinc at the 10 m N and 100 m N sites. The large ultra-fine sulfur peaks on October 24 through 25 were likely from the Monroe coal fired power plant. The Sept. 30 and Oct. 12 plumes were from a source to the north. Black lines above the dates in the zinc plot are weekends.

These three days were selected when there was minimal impact from Telegraph Avenue which had extensive stop and go periods. The ul- tra-fine data are a more extreme case of the behavior seen in the very fine particles, which had large regional sources and fell off slowly downwind.

The potential exposure and human health implications of these par- ticles can be estimated by comparison with recent work tying road- way-derived ultra-fine particles to ischemic heart disease in the Cal- ifornia Central Valley (Cahill et al., 2011). An increase in IHD mor- tality of∼30% at Bakersfield, CA, was associated with elevated lev- els of very fine and ultra-fine roadway-derived transition metal parti- cles, mostly from brake drums and pads (Table 4 below). However, the concentrations in Detroit were generally far lower than those mea- sured in Bakersfield.

As shown in Table 4, ultra-fine concentrations measured at the 10 m north and 100 m north sites are similar to those at Watt Avenue (Spring) in Sacramento, CA measured 20 m downwind of a 65,000 ve- hicles/day secondary street, at a stop light, during non-inversion con- ditions (Cahill et al., 2014). In both cases, little influence was seen from the nearby roadway, and the ultra-fine particles were regionally distributed. However, there was only very limited braking and accel- eration during the NEXUS intensive, thus limiting concentrations of brake wear particles. Nevertheless, if the observed ultra-fine metallic particles see in the NEXUS experiment extend over large numbers of people, it could potentially enhance the ischemic heart disease death rate in the same manner seen in Bakersfield, CA (Cahill et al., 2011).

3. Conclusions
Important differences in the behavior of particles of different sizes were observed during this study. For coarse species, the fall-off in concentration versus distance was rapid, roughly in accord with cur Cahill -- 00000339
AR002346
(")
E <ii
Ii c,
0 ~ z
400
300
200
100
NEXUS ultra fines
Sulfur 100 m N ~ Sulfur 1 0 m N
24 26 28 3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2 -- Potassium 100 m N C:=J Potassium 10 m N
22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2 12 10
-- Zinc 100 m N c:J Zinc 10 m N
24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1
23 25 27 29 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 2 September October

UNCORRECTED PROOF
Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx 17
Fig. 21. Ultra-fine nickel,copper,
iron and zinc at 10 m north during the 3 day intensive.

Table 4
Comparison ofultra-fine
(Dp < 0.09μm) traffic-derived particles measured in NEXUS versus Watt Ave. in suburban Sacramento, CA during spring non-inversion conditions (Cahill et al., 2014). NEXUS concentrations are 5-week averages. na = not available.

For comparison, winter values which are impacted by strong surfaced-based inversions in the California Central Valley are included. The sources of the high nickel values seen at Watt Avenue in winter were totally absent 500 m upwind, so they must be associated with Watt Avenue traffic. Such levels, however, have never been seen in our other stud- ies.

Ultra-fine elements (ng/m3) S P Fe (non-soil) Ni Cu Zn Pb Non-inversion conditions
Detroit
10 m n 68.1 10.5 3.4 0.5 1.9 3.2 2.9
100 m n 61.4 9.5 3.4 0.5 1.8 2.6 3.3
Watt Ave (Spring) 129 na 4.8 0.3 0.4 2.0 1.4
Strong inversions conditions
Watt Ave (Winter) 42.8 na 29.3 12.1 9.3 13.7 1.6
Sacramento (Winter) 52 4.0 14.3 0.6 na 14.3 2.5
Bakersfield (Winter) 242 10.5 27.7 1.6 na 12.3 2.6
rent models such as
Emfac2007. Concentrations were strongly af-
fected by meteorology such as wind velocity and rain fall. For the PM2.5 particles, the fall off versus distance was still close to the models, reaching a 90% reduction in freeway-derived particles in the 200–250 m range. Very fine particles, 0.26 > Dp > 0.09μm diameter, persisted all the way to the 300 m downwind site, with only a modest reduction in concentrations. Ultra-fine particles were only measured at two sites, 10 m north and 100 m north, and the concentrations at both sites were almost identical indicating a very slow fall off and/or strong upwind sources. The persistence of ultra-fine particles in urban areas away from freeways was also observed in the Los Angeles data (Zhu et al., 2002).

A 3-day period of southerly winds provided an opportunity to conduct an upwind-downwind highway transect to assess the impact of roadway emissions. For PM2.5, the transect yielded a measured near-roadway PM2.5 concentration of 2.0± 0.7 μg/m3 versus a value of 1.6 ± 0.5 μg/m3 predicted from recent California vehicle emis- sion rates and∼3 μg/m3 using current European freeway data. Thus, measured PM2.5 concentrations at the near-road site showed excel- lent agreement with predicted PM2.5 concentrations assuming recent published emission rates. By contrast, using 1973 emission rates one would predict roughly 16μg/m3 of PM2.5, thus illustrating the dra matic progress that hasbeen
made in reducing roadway emissions in
the US during the past four decades.

The NEXUS and European estimates of the contribution of brake drums were also similar, although numerous assumptions are needed to make the comparison. The European value is roughly 3.2 mg/km brake wear, assuming 6% trucks in their mix. The NEXUS iron val- ues were strongly enhanced over soil concentrations, indicating road- way sources including brake wear. The fine and very fine zinc parti- cles were too fine in size to be from tire erosion. With these assump- tions, the expected emission rate from brake wear is roughly 5.2 mg/ km, similar to the European values especially after some iron reduc- tion from vehicle debris and roadbed wear.

For ultra-fine particles, there was a dramatic increase in diesel soot, closely tied to traffic volumes, but only a modest increase in traf- fic-correlated zinc and other transition metals during the 3 day in- tensive. For the rest of the 5 week study, mean elemental concentra- tions were essentially identical at the 10 m and 100 m north sites and highly correlated in time. Further, this correlation existed independent of wind direction, including having both the 10 m north and 100 m north sites upwind of the freeway. From these results, we conclude that most of the time the freeway was a negligible enhancement of a regional ultra-fine background of transition metals.

The regional ultra-fine species closely resembled those seen in a recent study of stop-and-go traffic on a heavily traveled secondary road with heavy braking (Cahill et al., 2014). These particles are sim- ilar in composition to debris from brake pads, drums, and the zinc ad- ditive in motor oil (Cahill et al., 2011). These results reinforce the be- havior seen in the Los Angeles I-710 studies (Zhu et al., 2002) for ultra-fine particle number and black carbon, e.g., these components extended well upwind of the freeway and were soon reestablished at the same concentrations downwind beyond 150 m, thus showing a re- gional distribution of ultra-fines well away from the local freeway.

The NEXUS data also support the conclusions of Zhu et al. (2002) that little coagulation or particle size growth was seen in ultra-fines from freeways, as both Zhu's ultra-fine soot and particle number data were essentially identical versus distance with non-reactive CO.

The conclusion from this study is that for traffic on a freely flow- ing, high speed freeway with little braking and acceleration, almost all ultra-fine particles except for diesel soot, and most of the very fine particles, are generated from diverse vehicular and industrial sources Cahill -- 00000340
AR002347
Ultra fine aerosols < 0.09 mi crome ters
Nickel - Copper -- Zinc - lron/2
12 ,--------------- ------------------------------,
10 ..., 8 E .;
E
e 6
"' 0
C
"' z 4
2 0
23 noon 24 noon 25 noon 26 noon 27 noon 28 noon 29 noon October , 2010

UNCORRECTED PROOF
18 Atmospheric Environment xxx (2016) xxx-xxx
in the region and are not directly associated with local freeway traffic.

Uncited reference
Acknowledgements
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance in meteorolog- ical models of Ron Henry, as well as the detailed aethalometer, me- teorological and traffic data of the US EPA/FHWA study (US EPA, 2013). The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and collaborated in the research described here under contract EP-12-D-000219 to the University of California, Davis. It has been subjected to Agency re- view and approved for publication.

Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://dx. doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.09.023.

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Cahill -- 00000341
AR002348

April 2, 2025

SENT VIA EMAIL
([email protected]; [email protected])

Chair Lisa Kaplan and Members of the Commission
and Jose C. Henriquez, Executive Officer
Sacramento Local Agency Formation Commission
1112 I Street, Suite 100
Sacramento, California 95814

RE: April 2, 2025, Sacramento LAFCO Meeting, Agenda Item V-6 Comments on the Airport South Industrial Project and Its Final Environmental Impact Report

Dear Chair Kaplan, Members of the Commission, and Mr. Henriquez:

On behalf of Sierra Club, Environmental Council of Sacramento (“ECOS”) and Friends of Swainson’s Hawk, this letter provides comments regarding the Airport South Industrial Project (“Project”) and its Final Environmental Impact Report (“FEIR”).

We understand that the Sacramento County Local Agency Formation Commission (“LAFCO”) and the City of Sacramento (“City”) intend for this FEIR to inform the LAFCO Commission’s decision regarding whether to approve a requested Sphere of Influence amendment (“SOI Amendment”). After reviewing the FEIR, we conclude that the FEIR is woefully inadequate as a document to assist the Commission’s deliberation whether to approve the SOI Amendment.1

We also reviewed LAFCO’s staff report for its April 2, 2025 hearing regarding the SOI Amendment for the Project. Our comments regarding the staff report are included after our comments regarding the FEIR.

1 This letter also transmits comments on the FEIR’s inadequacy prepared by Shawn Smallwood (Exhibit 1), Dan Smith (Exhibit 2), and Ralph Propper and Earl Withycombe (Exhibit 3), which are incorporated by reference. A flash drive containing reference materials supporting comments on the DEIR and FEIR is being separately transmitted.

Chair Lisa Kaplan and Members of the Commission
Jose C. Henriquez, Executive Officer
Sacramento LAFCO
April 2, 2025

Page 2 of 21 ends

Sacramento City CouncilNovember 18, 2025

Sacramento City Council
November 18, 2025