Additionally, sudden climatic changes or natural disasters might lead, in the absence of alternatives, to migration choices which are forced rather than the result of a well-planned process.
Evidence of sudden disaster-induced displacement can be found after catastrophic Camp Fire in 2018. The wildfire destroyed over 18,000 structures and led to the temporary displacement of approximately 56,000 residents and the longer-term displacement of over 20,000 residents.
The majority of long-term displaced residents fled the Town of Paradise, where nearly 95% of the community’s structures were damaged and destroyed. The sudden influx of people across the region for an extended period of time put a strain on the resources of municipalities surrounding the burn scar. In 2019, the City of Chico estimated more than $500 million in impacts associated with sudden growth and pressure on local infrastructure. The impacts of the Camp Fire have substantially changed the dynamics of growth in the region, with some communities, like the City of Chico, experiencing more than a decade worth of growth in one year. Meanwhile, the Town of Paradise experienced a population loss of about 83% from 2018 to 2019 and Butte County saw a loss of more than 10,000 residents between 2019 and 2020. It will likely take at least two decades for the Town of Paradise to approach its former population, but the level of losses means the community will never be made whole. Many former residents of both Paradise and Butte County are likely to never return. Understanding how many of these residents may return in the future will require more extensive research and outreach, but interviews and surveys conducted as part of the Town of Paradise Recovery Plan revealed between that about 25% and 35% were looking to return in the future. 38 37 The climate crisis, migration, and refugees. John Podesta, The Brookings Institute (July 25, 2019). 38 The Impacts of Camp Fire Disaster on Housing Market Conditions and Housing Opportunities in the Tri -County Region. Peloton Research + Economics (September 1, 2020) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-10 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
12.2 HAZARD PROFILE
12.2.1 HISTORY
Cyber-Attack
The County has experienced a number of coordinated attacks over recent years. In 2015, one large County department was hit by the CryptoWall ransomware as a result of a user downloading an infected file. Over 1,500 shared files were encrypted, became unrecoverable, and had to be restored from backup.
Another ransomware incident occurred in 2020, when an attacker successfully broke into and planted the “CrySIS” ransomware variant on a file server in one of the County’s newly merged departments. A ransom note asking for $10,000 was left behind. The ransomware encrypted all shared files on the department’s file server, effectively destroying years of work. The technology for this new department has since been upgraded and brought up to County standards.
On a monthly basis, the County is hit by credential stealing attacks. In these attacks, an end- user surrenders their Office365 credentials to an attacker, usually through a phishing attack.
The attacker then logs into Office365 remotely, sets up automated Outlook rules so that the victim cannot see any replies to the emails sent from this account, and then proceeds to use the account to trick other County users into surrendering their credentials as well. The goal of the attacker in these cases is most likely financial gain through the sales of the credentials, spamming, and potential theft of information. This can be mitigated through the deployment of user-friendly two-factor authentication.
Targeted Violence
In the US, between 2000 to 2018 there were 277 active shooter incidents and 2,430 casualties, including 884 killed and 1,546 wounded.
39 In the neighboring jurisdiction of Santa Clara County, a mass shooting occurred at the Gilroy Garlic Festival in Gilroy, California, on July 28, 2019. The gunman killed himself and three others and wounded 17 people. The FBI opened a domestic terrorism investigation into the incident.
Terrorism
In May and June 2020 multiple attacks were made on federal and local law enforcement in Oakland and Ben Lomond, California. The actors were affiliated with the Boogaloo Movement, known for its extremist, anti-law enforcement views and ties to a movement that believes a second American Civil War is coming soon. The actors are accused of assassinating a Federal Protective Services Officer and injuring his partner on the night of May 29, after firing on them
39 Quick Look: 277 Active Shooter Incidents in the United States From 2000 to 2018 , Federal Bureau of Investigations Office of Partner Engagements
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-11 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
from a white van, in what is described as “an ambush.” The actors purposefully chose the night of massive protests to gain cover for the attacks.
On June 6, 2020, Santa Cruz deputies responded to a call about a suspicious van parked off the road. The caller saw guns and bomb-making materials inside the van, according to the sheriff’s department. The actor would later lob pipe bombs and open fire with assault weapons on law enforcement officers in Ben Lomond, killing one Santa Cruz deputy and injuring two other Santa Cruz deputies.
Mass Migration
An influx of agricultural workers to the Salinas and Pajaro Valleys occurs every year during peak growing season. For the three-year period 2014-16, the average monthly employment in the region reached 80,715 during July. The month of the lowest total, with 34,737 employed, was January, reflecting the seasonal pattern of agriculture sector jobs. The three-year annual average of monthly employment in the region increased from 49,035 during 2005-07 to 60,837 during 2014-16. Thus, annual average agricultural employment in the Salinas-Pajaro Valleys increased by a remarkable 24% during the past decade. 40 Monterey County has more farmworkers per acre than any other county in the nation; half of those laborers will come from outside the county. The seasonal increase of migratory agricultural workers during the peak of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic provided significant challenges for reducing the spread of COVID-19 and protecting vulnerable populations.
Monterey County receives 4.6 million visitors a year and hosts approximately 50 large events per year, therefore large population influxes of tourists and event attendees have historically happened regularly in the County.
12.2.2 LOCATION
Cyber-Attack
This hazard is not geographically based. Attacks can originate from any computer to affect any other computer in the world. If a system is connected to the Internet or operating on a wireless frequency, it is susceptible to exploitation. An international study released by Malwarebytes in 2016 found that 46% of all ransomware attacks originated from email. 41 Targets of cyber-attacks can be individual computers, networks, organizations, business sectors, or governments. Financial institutions and retailers are often targeted to extract personal and financial data that can be used to steal money from individuals and banks. The most affected sectors are finance, energy and utilities, and defense and aerospace, as well as communication, retail, and health care. Both public and private operations in Monterey County are threatened
40 Farmworker Housing Study and Action Plan for Salinas Valley and Pajaro Valley, California Institute for Rural Studies (April 2018)
41 Understanding the Depth of the Global Ransomware Problem, Malwarebytes (August 2016) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-12 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
on a near-daily basis by millions of currently existing cyber-attacks developed to automatically seek technological vulnerabilities.
Targeted Violence
Active shooter incidents typically occur at the following locations: areas of commerce - 43.7%; educational environments - 20.6%; government property - 9.4%; open spaces - 13.4%; residences - 4.3%; houses of worship - 4%; health care facilities - 4.3%; and other location -
0.4%. 42
Terrorism
Monterey County has identified numerous high-profile targets for potential terrorists. Large population centers, high visibility tourist attractions, and critical infrastructure accessible to the public present security challenges of an ongoing nature in the County.
Some key assets considered as locations for terrorist attacks in Monterey County include:
• Government Offices • Military Installations
• Emergency Services • Politically or symbolically significant sites • Transportation infrastructure • Energy, water, and related utility systems • Health care system • Telecommunications and information systems • Agricultural facilities • Mobile assets
• Recreational facilities • Events and attractions
Mass Migration
The mass migration of agricultural workers is likely to affect the Salinas and Pajaro Valleys and cities along the Highway 101 corridor.
Large events in Monterey County include the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Sea Otter Classic, the California International Air Show, the Big Sur International Marathon, the Big Sur Food & Wine Festival, the Firestone Grand Prix, the California Rodeo Salinas, the Sand City West End Celebration, the Artichoke Festival, the Monterey Jazz Festival, and the Concours D'Elegance.
Major tourist attractions are primarily located on the coast and on the densely populated Monterey Peninsula. In 2016, the Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau, surveyed approximately 1,300 visitors to the County, both at area lodging properties and specific tourism locations. Based on the 2016 Monterey County Visitor Profile Report Findings, 43major attractions include Cannery Row, Fisherman’s Wharf, the 17-Mile Drive, state parks and beaches, and the Monterey Bay Aquarium. Figure 12-1 shows the percentage visitors who indicated that they had visited or were planning to visit the listed Monterey County attractions.
42 Quick Look: 277 Active Shooter Incidents in the United States From 2000 to 2018 , Federal Bureau of Investigations Office of Partner Engagements
43 2016 Monterey County Visitor Profile Final Report of Findings, Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau (January 2017)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-13 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
Figure 12-1
Monterey County Attractions Visited
Figure 12-1: Monterey County Attractions Visited
Source: Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau
The most visited areas of the County are the Cities of Monterey, Pacific Grove, and Carmel-by- the-Sea, and the unincorporated area of Pebble Beach. Figure 12-2 shows the percentage visitors who indicated that they had visited or were planning to visit the listed area.
Figure 12-2
Monterey County Areas Visited
Figure 12-2: Monterey County Areas Visited
Source: Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-14 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
12.2.3 FREQUENCY
Cyber-Attack
Cyber-security threats are experienced on a daily basis, often without being noticed. Up-to-date virus protection software used in the public and private sector prevents most cyber-attacks from becoming successful, but regardless the number of security attacks is increasing. Nearly 80% of US companies have suffered a cyber-attack in the last year and more than half experienced a ransomware incident. 44
State and local governments often struggle with cybersecurity due to limited resources, are often under attack by cyber-criminals and ransomware operators. COVID-19 has increased these challenges. The combination of reduced tax revenues and the additional costs caused by the pandemic are likely to strain budgets reducing expenditures on cybersecurity. This risk is exacerbated by an increasingly decentralized staff. Many employees are still working from home and therefore using their home Wi-Fi network, which is likely less secure than government networks.
Targeted Violence
Studies indicate that the rate at which public mass active shooter incidents occur has tripled since 2011. Between 1982 and 2011, a mass active shooter incident occurred roughly once every 200 days. Between 2011 and 2014 that rate has accelerated greatly with at least one mass shooting occurring every 64 days in the United States. 45 Terrorism
The likelihood of a terrorist event varies with the method of attack, as follows:
• Chemical: The risk of a chemical event is present in the County. The petroleum and agricultural community use and store significant amounts of chemicals that could be used in destructive ways.
• Explosives: The elements necessary to construct a WMD explosive are readily available.
Agricultural communities maintain sufficient products for use in explosive devices. Pipe bomb and suspicious package events have occurred in Monterey County, though none have been specifically identified as a WMD.
• Radiological/Nuclear: The major transportation arteries for vehicles or rail that cross through or near the County contribute to the risk of a radiological event. Such products can pass through any of the regional transportation corridors. • Biological: Anthrax incidents that occurred in the US in October 2001 demonstrate the potential for spreading terror through biological weapons. An agent also could be introduced to livestock, causing harm to public health and the economy.
44 Understanding the Depth of the Global Ransomware Problem, Malwarebytes (August 2016) 45 Rate of Mass Shootings Has Tripled Since 2011, Harvard Research Shows , Amy P. Cohen, Deborah Azrael, and Matthew Miller (October 15, 2014)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-15 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
• Combined Hazards: WMD agents can be combined to have a greater total effect. Given the risks associated with chemical agents in Monterey County, the possibility of a combined event exists.
Mass Migration
Mass migration is possible anytime and is likely to occur every year. Mass migration of agricultural workers follows seasonal patterns each year. The peak average monthly employment occurs in July (80,715 average monthly employment from 2014-16) and is at its lowest in January (34,737 average monthly employment from 2014-16). 46 Tourist populations tend to visit the County during the summer months. Monterey County visitors spend an average of 3.6 days and 2.7 nights in the area. 47
12.2.4 SEVERITY
Cyber-Attack
There is no official index for measuring the severity of a cyber-attack. An international study released by Malwarebytes in 2016 found that cyber-ransom threats caused 34% of business victims to lose revenue and 20% had to stop business immediately. The study also reported that nearly 60% of all cyber-ransom attacks demanded over $1,000, over 20% asked for more than $10,000, and 1% asked for over $150,000. 48
Targeted Violence
The severity of targeted violence may vary from a few injured people to multiple injuries and fatalities. A Multiple Casualty Incident (MCI) is defined as any incident with three or more fatalities or critically injuries. MCIs may result from acts of violence such as shootings or hostage situations. Effects may include serious injuries, loss of life, and associated property damage. Because large numbers of patients may be involved, significant MCIs may tax local emergency medical and hospital resources, and therefore require a regional response. First responders, including fire, police, and emergency room staffs at local hospitals, follow established protocols for MCIs. Emergency response mutual aid is requested should local officials be unable to respond appropriately with available personnel and equipment.
Terrorism
The severity of a terrorist attack may vary from a few injured people to multiple injuries and fatalities. Terrorism can also cause the destruction of property, widespread illness and injury, the displacement of large numbers of people, and devastating economic loss.
46 Farmworker Housing Study and Action Plan for Salinas Valley and Pajaro Valley, California Institute for Rural Studies (April 2018)
47 2016 Monterey County Visitor Profile Final Report of Findings, Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau (January 2017)
48 Understanding the Depth of the Global Ransomware Problem, Malwarebytes (August 2016) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-16 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
Mass Migration
The severity of mass migration events varies by type of migration and the ability of the location of the migration to absorb the excess population. Mass migration can increase use of limited roadway infrastructure, reduce short-term housing inventory, and increase demand for public safety resources. Mass migration can affect the already limited housing inventory in the County and lead people to live in congested housing. California has severe housing challenges for both rental and homeownership in terms of both supply and affordability. The production of housing has not returned to the level required to meet the projected housing need. 49 The severity of incidents associated at a special event varies greatly but some special events present more risks than others (such as a political rally). It is not uncommon for people to be injured and killed as perpetrators, participants and/or innocent spectators.
12.2.5 WARNING TIME
Cyber-Attack
There is no warning time for cyber-attacks.
Targeted Violence
While active shooter situations are often unpredictable, paying careful attention to warning signs could go a long way in mitigating a potential incident. Some shooters demonstrate progressively escalating risk factors in their mindsets and behaviors that characterize them as violent prior to an attack. Recognizing these warning signs and reaching out for help could bring at-risk individuals to the attention of law enforcement sooner and prevent a future attack.
Potential warning signs
50 include:
• Increasingly erratic, unsafe, or aggressive behaviors. • Hostile behavior based on claims of injustice or perceived wrongdoing. • Drug and alcohol abuse.
• Claims of marginalization or distancing from friends and colleagues. • Changes in performance at work.
• Sudden and dramatic changes in home life or in personality. • Financial difficulties.
• Pending civil or criminal litigation.
• Observable grievances and making statements of retribution.
Terrorism
Warning time for a terrorist attack varies greatly. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC) monitor intelligence related to threats of terrorism.
49 California migration: The story of 40 million, CAL MATTERS (July 29, 2019) 50 Active Shooter Attacks: Security Awareness for Soft Targets and Crowded Places, Department of Homeland Security
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-17 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
Mass Migration
There is no warning time associated with mass migration events. Peak agriculture employment and the tourism season occur during the summer months so the summer season could be considered a time for higher alert to the risk of mass migration. Large events generally have dates identified months in advanced and involve pre-planning efforts, such as permit acquisition, so warning time for the event itself is generally extensive. There is usually no warning time for special events incidents unless a person calls in or posts a specific threat on social media. Then authorities may have a few hours warning time.
12.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
The following are the most likely secondary hazards associated with human-caused hazards:
Cyber-Attack
Computer security breaches associated with data and telecommunications losses can have significant economic impact. Ransomware attacks on local governments can have wide reaching impacts on services. In the short-term, it can impact emergency response; in the long-term, it can cause a large financial impact on a jurisdiction.
Targeted Violence
An active shooter incident or MCI can make the general public nervous about going out, so that more people stay at home.
Terrorism
The largest secondary impact caused by a terrorist event would be economic. Economic impacts from terrorism could be significant. The cost of a terrorist act would be felt in loss of life and property, disruption of business activity and long-term emotional impacts. Recovery would take significant resources and expense at the local level.
Mass Migration
Mass migration impacts to transportation infrastructure could cause roadway or railroad closures, which would have serious effects on the local economy and ability to provide services.
Loss of major travel routes would result in loss of commerce and could impact the ability to provide emergency services to citizens. The ability to receive fuel deliveries could be impacted.
Mass migration can also have impact on public health and lead to increased crime. The secondary impacts of special events incidents are possible copy-cats deploying the same tactics at an event in their area.
12.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
It is often quite difficult to quantify the potential losses from human-caused hazards. While the facilities themselves have a tangible dollar value, loss from a human-caused hazard often inflicts an even greater toll on a community, both economically and emotionally. The impact to COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-18 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
identified values will vary from event to event and depend on the type, location, and nature of a specific incident.
12.4.1 POPULATION
Cyber-Attack
The entire County’s population is exposed to cyber-attacks personally or at places of employment. All populations who directly use a computer or receive services from automated systems are exposed to cyber-terrorism. Because it is difficult to predict the particular target of cyber-terrorism, assessing vulnerability to the hazard is also difficult.
Although all individuals in the County are vulnerable to an attack, certain types of attacks would impact specific segments of the population. If the cyber-attack targeted the County’s power or utility grid, individuals with medical needs would be impacted the greatest. These populations are most vulnerable because many of the life-saving systems they rely on require power. Also, if an attack occurred during months of extreme hot weather, those 65 years of age and older would be vulnerable to the effects of the lack of climate control. These individuals might require an air-conditioned shelter operating on a back-up generator. If a cyber-attack targeted a facility storing or manufacturing hazardous materials, individuals living adjacent to these facilities would be vulnerable to the secondary effects, should the attack successfully cause a critical failure at that facility.
Targeted Violence
A targeted violence event could range from an individual attack to a coordinated attack by multiple agents upon multiple targets. Large-scale incidents have the potential to kill or injure many people in the immediate vicinity and may also affect people a relative distance from the initial event.
Terrorism
A terrorist event could range from an individual attack to a coordinated attack by multiple agents upon multiple targets. Large-scale incidents have the potential to kill or injure many people in the immediate vicinity and may also affect people a relative distance from the initial event. Variables affecting exposure for a WMD attack include the physical and chemical properties of the WMD, the ambient temperature, wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure, and humidity.
Mass Migration
The entire population of Monterey County could be impacted by a mass migration event, depending on the size and severity.
12.4.2 PROPERTY
Cyber-Attack
Structures are usually not impacted by cyber-attacks, but systems operated by electronics and computers are exposed. A catastrophic cyber-attack can have far-ranging effects on public and COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-19 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
private infrastructure systems. Cyber-attacks can cause physical damage if real assets or end consumers are affected by service disruption. This might occur if cyber-attacks target industries related to utilities, life support, transportation, human services, or telecommunications. In many cases, attacks on these systems initially will not be detected, and any malfunction will be thought to be system failure.
Targeted Violence
All structures in the County are physically vulnerable to a targeted violence event. The emphasis on accessibility, the opportunity for roof access, driveways underneath some structures, unmonitored areas, the proximity of many structures to transportation corridors and underground pipelines, and the potential for an active shooter to strike any structure randomly all have an impact on the vulnerability of structures. Schools, churches, large event venues, and workplaces are known locations of previous targeted violence incidents and are likely more vulnerable to attack.
Terrorism
All structures in the County are physically vulnerable to a terrorism event. The emphasis on accessibility, the opportunity for roof access, driveways underneath some structures, unmonitored areas, the proximity of many structures to transportation corridors and underground pipelines, and the potential for a terrorist to strike any structure randomly all have an impact on the vulnerability of structures.
Mass Migration
Structures are unlikely to be impacted by mass migration events but can restrict an already limited housing inventory in the County, both through increases in population and when housing is taken off the market for the purposes of vacation rental. Congested housing can lead structures to deteriorate faster. Increased use of facilities and visitor-serving amenities are also likely to deteriorate at faster rates when utilized by larger and larger populations.
12.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Cyber-Attack
All critical facilities and infrastructure that are operated by a computer system are exposed to cyber-attacks. Cyber-attacks may affect structures if any critical electronic systems suffer service disruption. For instance, a cyber-attack may cripple the electronic system that controls a cooling system or pressure system within critical infrastructure. This may result in physical damage to the structure from components overheating, or an explosion if pressure relief systems are rendered inoperable.
Targeted Violence
All critical facilities and infrastructure could be impacted by targeted violence.
Terrorism
Terrorism events can pose a serious long-term threat to critical facilities and infrastructure. The exposure and vulnerability of critical facilities and infrastructure to a terrorism event is based COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-20 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
on the two distinct but complementary approaches. First, any given place in the built environment has a certain level of inherent vulnerability that exists independent of any protective or mitigation actions that are applied to it. Second, the security, design, and other mitigation tools used to protect a place determine its tactical vulnerability. 51 The inherent vulnerability of critical infrastructure is based on:
• Visibility: How aware is the public of the existence of the facility, system, or location? • Utility: How valuable is the place in meeting the objective(s) of a potential terrorist? • Accessibility: How accessible is the place to the public? • Asset mobility: Is the asset's location fixed or mobile? If mobile, how often is it moved, relocated, or repositioned?
• Presence of hazardous materials: Are flammable, explosive, biological, chemical, and/or radiological materials present on site?
• Potential for collateral damage: What are the potential consequences for the surrounding area if the asset is attacked or damaged?
• Occupancy: What is the potential for mass casualties based on the maximum number of individuals on site at a given time?
The tactical vulnerability of each critical infrastructure is based on:
• Site Perimeter: Is the facility designed with security in mind—both site-specific and with regard to adjacent land uses? Are vehicle access and parking managed in a way that separates vehicles and structures?
• Building Envelope: Is the building’s envelope designed to be blast-resistant? Does it provide collective protection against chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants?
• Facility Interior: Does security screening cover all public and private areas? Are public and private activities separated? Are critical building systems and activities separated? Are utilities and HVAC systems protected and/or backed up with redundant systems? Are emergency power and telecommunications available? Are alarm systems operational? Is lighting sufficient? Are the building’s water supply and fire suppression systems adequate, code-compliant, and protected? Are on-site personnel trained appropriately? Are local first responders aware of the nature of the operations at the facility? Are systems and personnel in place to monitor and protect the facility? Mass Migration
All critical facilities and infrastructure have the potential to be impacted by mass migration events. In particular, water and road infrastructure capacity could quickly become overwhelmed.
51 FEMA 386-7, State and Local Mitigation Planning How-To Guide: Integrating Manmade Hazards COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-21 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
12.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
Cyber-Attack
While effects of cyber-threats on the natural environment are unlikely, they can occur. It would only be through a secondary effect that the environment could be affected by a cyber-attack.
Such effects may come from a system failure that, for example, allows a release of hazardous materials or improper disposal of waste or if a cyber-attack shut down a hydroelectric dam so that a river would be affected.
Targeted Violence
Targeted violence is unlikely to be associated with environmental impacts.
Terrorism
A terrorism event using a WMD can kill wildlife, destroy habitat, and contaminate critical resources in the food chain.
Mass Migration
Mass migration is unlikely to be associated with environmental impacts, though increased motorists on the road could lead to increases in pollution.
12.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Cyber-Attack
Economic impacts can be far-reaching if a cyber-attack or space weather event is prolonged for a week or longer. Cyber-attacks can have extensive fiscal impacts. Companies and government services can lose large sums of unrecoverable revenue from site downtime and possible compromise of sensitive confidential data. Cyber incidents could result in the theft or modification of important data—including personal, agency, or corporate information— and the sabotage of critical processes, including the provision of basic services by government or private-sector entities.
Targeted Violence
The economic impact price tag of potential losses from targeted violence could be huge if lives are lost, jobs are lost, and assets are damaged. Violence can cause fear in residents and visitors to go into public spaces in the County, which could affect the economy.
Terrorism
The economic impact price tag of potential losses from terrorism could be huge if lives are lost, jobs are lost, and assets are damaged. Terrorism can cause fear in residents and visitors to go into public spaces in the County, which could affect the economy.
Mass Migration
Monterey County’s economy is primarily based upon tourism in the coastal regions and agriculture in the Salinas Valley. In 2019, Monterey County agriculture accounted for a production value of over $4.4 billion. The Agricultural industry generates $11.7 billion in COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-22 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
economic output and one in five jobs in Monterey County directly attributable to the agricultural industry. 52 Tourism spending in the County annually is approximately $3.24 billion and supports 27,000 jobs and generates $153 million in local tax revenue. 53 Therefore, if mass migration risks impact either of these industries, economic impacts could be severe.
12.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
Cyber-Attack
The County will continue to be impacted and compelled to respond to cyber-attacks in the future. The nature of these attacks is projected to evolve in sophistication over time. The County and its incorporated jurisdictions are expected to remain vigilant in their efforts to prevent attacks from occurring or disrupting business operations. The reality remains that many computers and networks in organizations of all sizes and industries around the US will continue to suffer intrusion attempts on a daily basis from viruses and malware that are passed through websites and emails.
Targeted Violence
Future economic, cultural, and societal trends are likely to impact the frequency and magnitude of targeted violence incidents. Additionally, studies have linked high temperatures with increases in intense violence.
54 Increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence.
55 Terrorism
The agencies and organizations involved with terrorism in the County, specifically threat analyses and threat reduction, are examining the challenges presented by future development and expansion. Individually, and in collaboration with task forces and other facilities, plans are underway for continuation, changes and/or expansion of current initiatives. Buildings and other structures constructed to resist earthquakes and fires usually have qualities that also limit damage from blasts and resist fire spread and spread of noxious fumes in the event of a terrorist attack.
52 Economic Contributions of Monterey County Agriculture, Monterey County Agricultural Commissioner’s Office (June 2020)
53 2020-2021 Annual Report, Monterey County Convention & Visitors Bureau 54 Heat and Violence, Craig A. Anderson, Current Directions in Psychological Science (February 2001) 55 Climate Change and Collective Violence, Barry S. Levy, Victor W. Sidel, and Jonathan A. Patz, Annual Review of Public Health (March 2017)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 12-23 HUMAN-CAUSED HAZARDS
Mass Migration
Agricultural employment in the County has seen large increases in the past 10-years and could continue to see increases. Tourism in Monterey County is likely to expand and therefore, the risk of tourism associated with mass migration could increase.
Special event incidents occur when any large crowd of persons gather. For events having the potential for large crowds or mob activity, pre-planning and permits are issued, so potential disturbances are quelled through the presence of sufficient law enforcement personnel, pre- planning for crowd and traffic control.
Climate change is likely to exacerbate hazard risk and therefore, the risk of hazard-induced migration is likely to increase in the future. This dangerous situation for vulnerable communities is a perfect example of how the climate crisis magnifies and upholds existing inequities associated with racism, extreme income inequality, and other structural disparities.
As average temperatures rise and heat waves and wildfires get more frequent and severe, farmworkers will be at an ever-heightened risk of heat- and smoke-related illnesses. California as a whole is seeing this layering of crises unfold in real time, as the state battles COVID-19, wildfires of historic proportions, and scorching heat waves.
12.6 ISSUES
Issues associated with Human-Caused Hazards in Monterey County include:
• Continue regular and redundant emergency preparedness training for field level responders (police, fire, and public works) and public information staff in order to respond quickly in the event of a disaster associated.
• Continue to improve response times for public safety throughout the County so as to reduce exposure to human-caused incidents. Maintain appropriate staffing levels of public safety personnel to address vulnerabilities identified in this chapter. • Work with the private sector to enhance and create business continuity plans to be followed in the event of an emergency
• Participate in regional, state, and federal efforts to gather terrorism information at all levels and keep public safety officials briefed at all times regarding local threats. Further develop response capabilities based on emerging threats.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-1 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
13. PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
13.1 OVERVIEW
The US Center for Disease Control defines a disease outbreak as the occurrence of more cases of disease than normally expected within a specific place or group of people over a given period of time. An epidemic is the spread of an infectious disease beyond a local population, reaching people in a wider geographical area. Several factors determine whether an outbreak will become an epidemic including the ease with which the disease spreads from vectors, such as animals, to people and the ease with which it spreads from person to person.
A pandemic is an epidemic that occurs worldwide or over an exceptionally large area and affects a large number of people or animals. Pandemics can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area and cause significant economic, social, and political disruption. Evidence suggests that the likelihood of pandemics has increased over the past century because of increased global travel and integration, urbanization, changes in land use, and greater exploitation of the natural environment.
Pandemics are hazards that have a long duration. Though daily impacts may be low, cumulative impacts are likely to be overwhelming for both the health system and the community. During a moderate pandemic, Monterey County could see a sustained increase in intensive care unit admissions, in emergency department (ED) admissions, in patients needing to be placed in respiratory isolation, and in deaths. Capacity to provide medical care, including basic emergency medical system (EMS), hospital ED services, and isolation rooms, will be reduced. At the same time, a higher than usual absenteeism rate for all employees is expected.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-2 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
13.1.1 INFLUENZA
Epidemics of the flu typically occur in the fall and
winter. The flu can cause mild to severe illness, and
at times can lead to death. Anyone can get sick
with the flu, but some people are at a higher risk of
flu-related complications if they get sick. This
includes older and younger people and people with
certain chronic medical conditions.
Because flu seasons fluctuate in length and
severity, a single estimate cannot be used to
summarize influenza-associated deaths. The US
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
estimates that during the 2019–2020 flu season 38
million people fell ill, 18 million people went to a
health care provider, 400,000 were hospitalized,
and 22,000 died. Yearly vaccination is the primary
method for preventing influenza.
H1N1
In April 2009, the World Health Organization
(WHO) issued a health advisory on an outbreak of
influenza-like illness caused by a new subtype of
influenza A (A/H1N1) in Mexico and the United
States. The disease spread rapidly, and in June the
WHO declared an H1N1 pandemic, marking the
first global pandemic since the 1968 Hong Kong flu.
In October, the US declared H1N1 a national
emergency. In August 2010, the WHO declared an
end to the pandemic globally. H1N1 viruses and
seasonal influenza viruses are co-circulating in
many parts of the world. It is likely that the 2009
H1N1 virus will continue to spread for years to
come, like a regular seasonal influenza virus.
H5N1/H7N9
The highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus is
an influenza A subtype that occurs mainly in birds,
causing high mortality among birds and domestic
poultry. More than 700 human infections with
H5N1 viruses have been reported to WHO from
primarily 15 countries in Asia, Africa, the Pacific,
Historic Hazards
1918 Influenza Pandemic
The 1918 influenza pandemic was caused by
an H1N1 virus of avian origin. The pandemic
spread worldwide from 1918-1919. An
estimated 500 million people became
infected and 50 million died. An estimated
675,000 deaths occurred in the US.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-3 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Europe, and the Near East since November 2003. Indonesia, Vietnam, and Egypt have reported the highest number of human H5N1 cases to date. The first report of a human infection with H5N1 in the Americas was in Canada in January of 2014 and occurred in a traveler recently returning from China. Although human infections with this virus are rare, approximately 60% of the cases have died.
H5N1 virus infections of humans are rare, and most cases have been associated with direct poultry contact during poultry outbreaks. Rare cases of limited human-to-human spread of H5N1 virus may have occurred, but there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. Nonetheless, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change and mutate, scientists are concerned that H5N1 viruses one day could be able to infect humans more easily and spread more easily from one person to another, potentially causing another pandemic.
13.1.2 CORONAVIRUSES
Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses that cause diseases in animals and humans. They often circulate among camels, cats, and bats, and can sometimes evolve and infect people. In animals, coronaviruses can cause diarrhea in cows and pigs, and upper respiratory disease in chickens. In humans, the viruses can cause mild respiratory infections, like the common cold, but can lead to serious illnesses, like pneumonia. Coronaviruses are named for the crown-like spikes on their surface. Human coronaviruses were first identified in the mid-1960s. They are closely monitored by public health officials.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. Over the next few months, the illness spread to more than two dozen countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before the global outbreak was contained. According to the WHO, 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak and 774 died. In the United States, only 11 people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to parts of the world where SARS was present. SARS did not spread more widely in the United States.
Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world.
In general, SARS begins with a high fever, headache, an overall feeling of discomfort and body aches. Some people also have mild respiratory symptoms at the outset. About 10% to 20% of patients have diarrhea. After two to seven days, SARS patients may develop a dry cough. Most patients develop pneumonia. The main way that SARS seems to spread is by close person-to- person contact. The virus that causes SARS is thought to be transmitted most readily by respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Droplet spread can happen when droplets from the cough or sneeze of an infected person are propelled a short distance (generally up to 3 feet) through the air and deposited on the mucous membranes of the mouth, nose, or eyes of persons nearby. The virus also can spread when a person touches a surface or object contaminated with infectious droplets and then touches their mouth, nose, or COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-4 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
eyes. It is also possible that the SARS virus might spread more broadly through the air or by other ways that are not now known.
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is an illness caused by a coronavirus called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Most MERS patients developed severe respiratory illness with symptoms of fever, cough, and shortness of breath. About 3 or 4 out of every 10 patients reported with MERS have died.
Health officials first reported the disease in Saudi Arabia in September 2012. Through retrospective (backward-looking) investigations, they later identified that the first known cases of MERS occurred in Jordan in April 2012. So far, all cases of MERS have been linked through travel to, or residence in, countries in and near the Arabian Peninsula. The largest known outbreak of MERS outside the Arabian Peninsula occurred in the Republic of Korea in 2015. The outbreak was associated with a traveler returning from the Arabian Peninsula.
MERS-CoV has spread from ill people to others through close contact, such as caring for or living with an infected person. MERS can affect anyone, and MERS patients have ranged in age from younger than 1 to 99 years old. The CDC continues to closely monitor MERS globally and recognizes the potential for MERS-CoV to spread further and cause more cases globally and in the US.
Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first known case was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic.
Symptoms of COVID-19 are variable, but often include fever, cough, headache, fatigue, breathing difficulties, and loss of smell and taste. The incubation period for COVID-19 is thought to extend to 14 days, with a median time of 4-5 days from exposure to symptoms onset.
COVID-19 transmits when people breathe in air contaminated by droplets and small airborne particles containing the virus. This risk is highest when people are in close proximity, but they can be inhaled over longer distances, particularly indoors. Transmission can also occur if splashed or sprayed with contaminated fluids in the eyes, nose, or mouth, and, rarely, via contaminated surfaces. People remain contagious for up to 20 days and can spread the virus even if they do not develop symptoms. Age and existing comorbidities are a strong risk factor for severe illness, complications, and death. A large cohort that included more than 44,000 people with COVID-19 from China, showed that illness severity can range from mild to critical:
• Mild to moderate (mild symptoms up to mild pneumonia): 81% • Severe (dyspnea, hypoxia, or more than 50% lung involvement on imaging): 14% • Critical (respiratory failure, shock, or multiorgan system dysfunction): 5% COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-5 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
In this study, all deaths occurred among patients with critical illness, and the overall case fatality ratio (CFR) was 2.3%. The CFR among patients with critical disease was 49%. 56 Among US COVID-19 cases reported January 22–May 30, 2020, the proportion of people who were hospitalized was 14%, including 2% admitted to the intensive care unit. Overall, 5% of patients died. 57
Several COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and distributed in various countries, which have initiated mass vaccination campaigns. Other preventive measures include physical or social distancing, quarantining, ventilation of indoor spaces, covering coughs and sneezes, hand washing, and keeping unwashed hands away from the face. The use of face masks or coverings has been recommended in public settings to minimize the risk of transmissions. While work is underway to develop drugs that inhibit the virus, the primary treatment is symptomatic.
Management involves the treatment of symptoms, supportive care, isolation, and experimental measures. COVID-19 is the most recent (and still active in 2022) pandemic declared by the World Health Organization.
13.1.3 VIRAL HEMORRHAGIC FEVERS
Viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are a group of illnesses caused by several distinct families of viruses. VHFs represent a multisystem syndrome (multiple systems in the body are affected).
Characteristically, the overall vascular system is damaged and the body’s ability to regulate itself is impaired. These symptoms are often accompanied by hemorrhage (bleeding); however, the bleeding itself is rarely life-threatening. While some types of hemorrhagic fever viruses can cause relatively mild illnesses, many cause severe, life-threatening disease. The viruses that cause VHFs are distributed over much of the globe. However, because each virus is associated with one or more host species, the virus, and the disease it causes are usually seen only where the host species live.
Ebola
The 2014 Ebola virus outbreak was unprecedented in geographical reach and impact on health care systems across the globe. This was the largest and deadliest Ebola virus outbreak ever recorded. It was the first occurrence of the virus in the West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Mali, and Senegal. Ebola is more common in Central African countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan, where it was first discovered in 1976. It was also the first time that Ebola made it to the United States and Europe, prompting world-wide preparedness and response efforts.
56 Wu Z, McGoogan JM. Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID -19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72314 Cases from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. 2020 Feb 24;323(13):1239–42.
57 Stokes EK, Zambrano LD, Anderson KN, et al. Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States, January 22–May 30, 2020. MMWR. 2020 Jun 19;69:759–765.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-6 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
In August 2014, two US healthcare workers returned to the United States for treatment for Ebola. The case that most impacted the health care system in the United States was a patient diagnosed with Ebola in Dallas, Texas who died due to Ebola in October 2014. The nurse who provided care for him later tested positive for Ebola. This caused responses across the country from hospitals, emergency medical teams, fire departments and public health agencies to enhance isolation precautions, develop emergency policies, train with personal protective equipment, and conduct multi-agency emergency exercises in case the spread of Ebola became a pandemic.
Hantavirus
Hantavirus is a rodent-borne disease. It was discovered in 1993 in the southwestern US, and it has been determined that the disease had been present, but unrecognized, at least as early as 1959. It has now been identified in over half of the states of the US In 2013, seven cases of hantavirus occurred in Yosemite National Park. Hantavirus has also been detected in the Sierra Nevada region.
The hantavirus spreads when individuals touch or eat something contaminated with infected rodent urine, droppings, or saliva. It can also be transmitted through aerosolization, which occurs when dried materials contaminated by infected rodent droppings or saliva are disturbed and brought up into the air and inhaled.
Infected persons first develop symptoms one to five weeks after exposure. Early symptoms include fever, headache, and muscle aches, especially in the thighs, hips, back, and shoulders.
Other early symptoms include dizziness, chills, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and abdominal pain.
After two to seven days of these symptoms, patients develop breathing difficulties that range from cough and shortness of breath to severe respiratory failure. Approximately 40% of hantavirus patients die from the disease.
13.1.4 TICK & MOSQUITO BORNE ILLNESS
Ticks are small, insect-like creatures most often found in naturally vegetated areas. They feed by attaching to animals and humans, sticking their mouthparts into the skin, and sucking blood for up to several days. Ticks do not fall from trees, jump, or fly. Most species are found on wild grasses and low plants. Adult ticks wait at the ends of grass or other foliage for a host to brush by so they may attach. Sometimes ticks carry bacteria or viruses that can be transmitted to a person while the tick is attached and feeding. The following species of ticks are known to commonly bite humans:
• Western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus) • Brown dog tick (Rhipicephalus sanguineus) • American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis) • Ornithodoros hermsi • Pacific Coast tick (Dermacentor occidentalis) • Ornithodoros parkeri • Wood tick (Dermacentor andersoni) • Ornithodoros coriaceus COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-7 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Tularemia
Tularemia, named after Tulare County in California, where it was first described in 1911, is a tick-borne disease of animals and humans caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis.
Tularemia is similar to plague but is typically spread differently. Humans usually become infected with Tularemia by tick and deer fly bites, skin contact with infected animals, ingestion of contaminated water or meat, or inhalation of contaminated dusts or aerosols. Symptoms vary depending upon the route of infection.
Rabbits, hares, and rodents are especially susceptible and often die in large numbers during outbreaks. Although Tularemia can be life-threatening, most infections can be treated successfully with antibiotics. Steps to prevent Tularemia include use of insect repellent, wearing gloves when handling sick or dead animals, and not mowing over dead animals. In the United States, naturally occurring infections have been reported from all states except Hawaii.
Lyme Disease
Lyme disease, named after the city in Connecticut, where it was first identified in 1975, is a tick- borne disease caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, which normally lives in mice, squirrels, and other small animals. It is transmitted among these animals and to humans through the bites of certain species of ticks. In the northeastern and north-central United States, the black-legged tick (or deer tick, Ixodes scapularis) transmits Lyme disease. In the Pacific coastal United States, the disease is spread by the western black-legged tick (Ixodes pacificus). Other major tick species found in the United States have not been shown to transmit the disease.
Typical symptoms include fever, headache, fatigue, and a skin rash. If left untreated, infection can spread to joints, the heart, and the nervous system. Lyme disease is diagnosed based on symptoms, physical findings (e.g., rash), and the possibility of exposure to infected ticks.
Laboratory testing is helpful in later stages of the disease. Most cases of Lyme disease can be treated successfully with a few weeks of antibiotics. Steps to prevent Lyme disease include using insect repellent, removing ticks promptly, landscaping, and integrated pest management.
The ticks that transmit Lyme disease can occasionally transmit other tick-borne diseases as well.
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a potentially fatal tick-borne disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii. It is transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected American dog tick (Dermacentor variabilis), Rocky Mountain wood tick (Dermacentor andersoni), or brown dog tick (Rhipicephalus sanguineus).
Typical symptoms include fever, headache, abdominal pain, vomiting, and muscle pain. A rash may also develop, but is often absent in the first few days, and in some patients, never develops. Rocky Mountain spotted fever can be a severe or even fatal illness if not treated in the first few days of symptoms. It can be treated successfully with a few weeks of antibiotics.
Steps to prevent the disease include using insect repellent, removing ticks promptly, COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-8 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
landscaping, and integrated pest management. The ticks that transmit Rocky Mountain spotted fever can occasionally transmit other tick-borne diseases as well.
Malaria
Malaria is a sometimes-fatal mosquito-borne disease caused by a parasite that commonly infects the Anopheles mosquito, which feeds on humans. People who contract malaria are typically extremely sick with high fevers, chills, and flu-like illness. Although malaria can be fatal, illness and death can usually be prevented.
On average 1,500 cases of malaria are diagnosed in the United States each year. The vast majority are in travelers and immigrants returning from countries where malaria transmission occurs, many from sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In many temperate areas, such as western Europe and the United States, economic development and public health measures have succeeded in eliminating malaria. However, most of these areas have Anopheles mosquitoes that can transmit malaria, and reintroduction of the disease is a constant risk.
West Nile Virus
West Nile Virus is a potentially serious mosquito-borne that may affect residents in the County.
Experts believe West Nile Virus is established as a seasonal epidemic in North America that flares up in the summer and continues into the fall. Mosquitoes transmit the virus to birds, livestock, and humans. Between 1999 and 2019, a total of 51,801 cases of West Nile Virus disease in people was reported to CDC, 7,026 of which were in California.
According to the CDC, approximately 80% of people who are infected with West Nile Virus will show no symptoms. Up to 20% have symptoms such as fever, headache, and body aches, nausea, vomiting, and sometimes swollen lymph glands or a skin rash on the chest, stomach and back. Symptoms can last for as short as a few days, though even healthy people have become sick for several weeks. About 1% of people infected with West Nile Virus will develop severe illness, with symptoms that can include high fever, headache, neck stiffness, stupor, disorientation, coma, tremors, convulsions, muscle weakness, vision loss, numbness, and paralysis. These symptoms may last several weeks, and neurological effects may become permanent. There is no specific treatment for West Nile Virus infection. In more severe cases, people may need to go to the hospital where they can receive supportive treatment including intravenous fluids, help with breathing and nursing care.
Dengue Fever
Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by any of four closely related dengue viruses (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4). People get dengue from the bite of an infected mosquito. The mosquito becomes infected when it bites a person who has dengue virus in their blood. It takes a week or more for the dengue virus to replicate in the mosquito; then the mosquito can transmit the virus to another person when it bites. Dengue is transmitted by the yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). Dengue virus cannot be transmitted from person to person.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-9 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Generally, younger children and those with their first dengue infection have a milder illness than older children and adults. The main symptoms are high fever, severe headache, severe pain behind the eyes, joint pain, muscle and bone pain, rash, bruising, and sometimes mild bleeding from the nose or mouth. Severe dengue patients proceed to experience more bleeding, severe pain in the abdomen, respiratory distress, and fluid accumulation in the abdomen and around the lungs as the smallest blood vessels (capillaries) begin to leak. If not treated, severe dengue can result in death. There is no specific treatment for dengue infection.
Rest and fluids are generally sufficient for persons with dengue. Severe dengue may require hospitalization and intensive medical care.
Zika Virus
Zika is a mosquito-borne disease. The most common symptoms of Zika are fever, rash, joint pain, and conjunctivitis (red eyes). The illness is usually mild, with symptoms lasting for several days to a week after being bitten by an infected mosquito. People usually do not get sick enough to go to the hospital, and they rarely die of Zika. For this reason, many people might not realize they have been infected. However, Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause a serious birth defect called microcephaly, as well as other severe fetal brain defects. Once a person has been infected, he or she is likely to be protected from future infections.
Zika virus is transmitted by yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) and the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). An Aedes mosquito can only transmit Zika virus after it bites a person who has this virus in their blood. Zika virus is not spread through casual contact but can be spread by infected men to their sexual partners. There is a growing association between Zika and microcephaly (abnormally small head and brain) in newborns, as well as Zika and Guillain-Barré Syndrome, a disease affecting the nervous system. Studies are ongoing to further evaluate these associations.
13.1.5 VALLEY FEVER
Valley Fever, also called coccidioidomycosis, is an infection caused by the fungus Coccidioides.
The illness is caused by breathing in a fungus which lives naturally in the soil of nearby San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. People get sick by breathing in a form of the Valley Fever fungus called spores. Spores are too small to be seen. They can get into the air with dust when it is windy or when dirt is disturbed. In extremely rare cases, the fungal spores can enter the skin through a cut, wound, or splinter and cause a skin infection. Valley Fever cannot be spread from one person to another or from an animal to a person.
Most people who become infected with Valley Fever (60%) do not experience any symptoms and do not need treatment. Around 30 to 40% of people develop flu-like symptoms such as severe fatigue, cough, fever, heavy sweating at night, loss of appetite, muscle, and joint aches, and sometimes a rash. Approximately 5 to 10% of people who get Valley Fever will develop serious or long-term problems in their lungs. In an even smaller percentage of people (about 1%), the infection spreads from the lungs to other parts of the body, such as the central COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-10 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
nervous system (brain and spinal cord), skin, or bones and joints. This type of infection can be serious and is sometimes fatal.
Symptoms of valley fever may appear between 1 and 3 weeks after a person breathes in the fungal spores and usually last for a few weeks to a few months. Valley Fever is more common among older adults, though anyone of any age can contract it. Several groups of people are at higher risk for developing the severe forms of Valley Fever, including African Americans, Filipinos, women in the third trimester of pregnancy, and people with weak immune systems.
Valley Fever appears to be on the rise in recent years, with 2017 bringing the highest number of recorded cases on record to California. According to the CDC, while the reasons for the increased incidence in Valley Fever in 2016 are not known, climatic and environmental factors favorable to Valley Fever proliferation and airborne release might have contributed, including rainfall after several years of drought and soil disturbance resulting from construction. The UC Davis Valley Fever Center attributes the increase in cases to drought conditions and firefighting equipment stirring up fungus in the soil. A March 2013 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and referenced in the 2018 California State Hazard Mitigation Plan notes that more than 20,000 cases of Valley Fever are reported each year in the United States, but many more cases likely go undiagnosed. Some researchers estimate that each year the fungus infects more than 150,000 people, many of whom are sick without knowing the cause or have symptoms so mild they are not recognized.
13.1.6 POLICIES, PLANS, AND REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
United States Department of Health and Human Services
The US Department of Health and Human Services has statutory responsibility for preventing the introduction, transmission, and spread of communicable diseases in the United States. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is housed within the Department of Health and Human Services and is responsible for controlling the introduction and spread of infectious diseases. The CDC’s roles include:
• Instituting public education and awareness related to disease spread and prevention • Studying and tracking transmission rates, treatment options, and vaccines • Maintaining active surveillance of diseases through investigation and data collection, analysis, and distribution
• Developing and implementing operational programs and guidance relating to environmental health problems
• Conducting research aimed at developing and testing effective disease prevention, control, and health
• Implementing a program to sustain a strong national workforce in disease prevention and control, and conducts a national program for improving the performance of clinical laboratories
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-11 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
The Division of Global Migration and Quarantine works to control disease transmission internationally through the operation of Quarantine Stations at ports of entry, establishment of standards for medical examination of persons destined for the United States, and administration of interstate and foreign quarantine regulations, which govern the international and interstate movement of persons, animals, and cargo.
California Department of Public Health
The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) is responsible for protecting public health within the state of California. The CDPH consists of public health professions, researchers, scientists, doctors, nurses, and other staff members who aid in implementing the organizations programs and services. The essential functions of the CDPH are comprehensive in scope and include infectious disease control and prevention, food safety, environmental health, laboratory services, patient safety, emergency preparedness, chronic disease prevention and health promotion, family health, health equity and vital records and statistics.
Monterey County Health Department
The Monterey County Health Department exists to enhance, protect, and improve the health of the people in Monterey County. To accomplish this, the Department provides a wide variety of health-related services in the areas of public health, environmental health, behavioral health, and clinic services. The Public Health Bureau has programs that cover several essential public health services, including surveillance, disaster preparedness, diagnosing and addressing health problems, outreach, and education, and mobilizing community partnerships to identify and solve health problems. The Communicable Disease Prevention and Control Unit is responsible for preventing and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.
13.2 HAZARD PROFILE
The severity of human health hazards is dependent upon the hazard and the population exposed to it. As the population increases, so does the risk of exposure to public health hazards. The key to reducing the disease hazard is isolation so that the infected population does not continue to spread the hazard to the uninfected population. For disease health hazards, promoting education and personal preparedness will help to mitigate and reduce the severity of the hazard.
13.2.1 HISTORY
Table 13-1 lists communicable disease cases in Monterey County from 2009 to 2019 for select disease discussed in this plan.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-12 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Table 13-1: Selected Communicable Disease Cases in Monterey County (2009 -2019) Table 13-1
Selected Communicable Disease Cases in Monterey Country (2009-2019) Disease Year
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Dengue Fever 0 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 3 0 1 12
Hantavirus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lyme Disease 0 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 3 12
Malaria 2 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 13
Rickettsiosis 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 6
Tularemia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
Valley Fever 39 56 67 76 69 24 38 79 191 238 164 1,041
West Nile Virus 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 4
Zika Virus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 6
Source: California Department of Public Health- West Nile Virus Cases, 2006-present and Infectious Diseases by Disease, County, Year, and Sex There were two confirmed cases of SARS in California during the worldwide outbreak in 2002- 2003, neither of them in Monterey County. From 2011 through 2015, there were 16 cases of hantavirus in California, neither occurred in Monterey County.
An estimated 22,500 to 90,000 Monterey County residents become ill from influenza each flu season. Table 13-2 lists severe influenza cases by flu season for residents under 64 in Monterey County from 2013-2018.
Table 13-2: Severe Influenza Cases (A ge 64 and Younger) By Flu Season Table 13-2
Severe Influenza Cases in Monterey County (Age 64 and Younger) by Flu Season: 2013-2018 Flu Season ICU Admissions Fatalities
2013-2014 Flu Season 12 7
2014-2015 Flu Season 6 2
2015-2016 Flu Season 2 1
2016-2017 Flu Season 8 4
2017-2018 Flu Season* 6 7
*Data should be considered provisional
Source: Monterey County Health Department Epidemiology & Surveillance Unit, Influenza - Local Data, Current as of March 10, 2018
Pandemics
There have been six pandemics since 1900. The previous pandemics occurred in 1918-1920, 1957-1958, 1968- 1969, 1977-1978, 2009-2010, and 2019-present. 1918 Pandemic: The 1918-1920 Pandemic, commonly referred to as the Spanish Flu, was unusually severe, infecting close to one-third of the world’s population, or 500 million people.
The 1918 pandemic had an extensive mortality rate, killing as much as 1% of the world’s population, or 40 million people worldwide, including about 675,000 in the United States.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-13 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
1957-1958 (H2N2 Virus) Pandemic: In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.
1968 (H3N2 Virus) Pandemic: The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people. 2009 (H1N1 Virus) Pandemic: In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus, commonly known as swine flu emerged. It was detected first in the United States and spread quickly across the US and the world. This new H1N1 virus contained a unique combination of influenza genes not previously identified in animals or people. The H1N1 virus was quite different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the H1N1 virus, but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives. Since the H1N1 virus was different from circulating viruses, vaccination with seasonal flu vaccines offered little cross-protection against H1N1 virus infection
In April 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a health advisory on an outbreak of influenza-like illness caused by a new subtype of influenza A (A/H1N1) in Mexico and the United States. The disease spread rapidly, and in June the WHO declared an H1N1 pandemic. In October, the US declared H1N1 a national emergency.
From April 12, 2009, to April 10, 2010, the CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range:
43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the H1N1 virus. Additionally, the CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from H1N1. Globally, 80% of virus- related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age, which differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70% to 90% of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older. 58
58 2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-14 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
In Monterey County, the 2009 pandemic led to 16 ICU admissions and 3 fatalities. 59 In August 2010, the WHO declared an end to the pandemic globally. H1N1 viruses and seasonal influenza viruses are co-circulating in many parts of the world. It is likely that the 2009 H1N1 virus will continue to spread for years to come, like a regular seasonal influenza virus.
COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Pandemic: Currently, COVID-19, a contagious disease caused by a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is an ongoing pandemic, which has had a large effect worldwide and on Monterey County.
COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in January 2020 by the World Health Organization. On February 4, 2020, the US declared a public health emergency. On February 28, 2020, the first case of community spread was detected in California and by March 4, the first COVID-19 death in California occurred. Therefore, on March 4, 2020, Governor Newsom declared a State of Emergency and on March 6th, the Monterey County Board of Supervisors also proclaimed a state of emergency. On March 13th, the President of the US declared a National Emergency. Local emergencies were also proclaimed by all incorporated jurisdictions in Monterey County by the end of March 2020.
On March 13, 2020, 12 passengers from the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship were quarantined in Asilomar Hotel, Pacific Grove while undergoing testing. On March 17, the first two cases of COVID-19 in Monterey County were confirmed and the County of Monterey Health Officer issued a Shelter-in-Place Order. The first death due to complications from COVID-19 in Monterey County occurred on March 21.
As of October 9, 2021, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the United States has had a total of 44,217,318 total cases of COVID-19 and 711,020 deaths caused by COVID-19. 60 As of October 11, 2021, the State of California has had 4,553,194 confirmed cases of COVID-19, resulting in 69,741 deaths. The current daily average of new cases is 5,212 with 92 daily average deaths per day. Statewide, 71.4% of people have been fully vaccinated, and 9.9% of people have been partially vaccinated against COVID-19. 61 As of October 11, 2021, there have been 48,416 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 584 COVID- 19 deaths in Monterey County. Figure 13-1 shows cases of COVID-19 among Monterey County residents by date of report.
59 Influenza - Local Data, Monterey County Health Department 60 United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing (NAATs) by State, Territory, and Jurisdiction , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Accessed October 12, 2021 61 Tracking COVID-19 in California, State of California, Accessed October 12, 2021 COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-15 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Figure 13-1
COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Date
Figure 13-1: COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Date As seen in the Figure 13-1, Monterey County saw cases start to grow in the summer of 2020, with its first large spike in COVID-19 cases in August of 2020. The largest spike in cases occurred in December and January 2021, and began to decline in the Spring of 2021, with some growth in cases occurring again in July and August of 2021.
Table 13-3 lists COVID-19 cases by age group in Monterey County and Figure 13-2 shows COVID-19 cases by region of residence, as of October 11, 2021. 62 Table 13-3: COVID-19 Cases Among County Residents by Age Group Table 13-3
COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Age Group Age in Years Incident Cases Percent of Total Cases
0-17 6,851 14.15%
18-24 6,469 13.36%
25-34 9,800 20.23%
35-44 9,044 18.67%
45-54 7,361 15.20%
55-64 5,123 10.58%
65-74 2,300 4.75%
75-110 1,471 3.04%
Other 12 0.02%
62 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-NCoV) - Local Data, Monterey County
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-16 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Figure 13-2
COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Region of Residence
Figure 13-2: COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Region of Residence Table 13-4 lists severe cases of COVID-19 by age group based on the number of hospitalized individuals in Monterey County.
Table 13-4: Severe COVID-19 Cases Among Residents by Age Group Table 13-4
Severe COVID-19 Cases Among Monterey County Residents by Age Group Age in Years Hospitalized Individuals Proportion of Hospitalized Cases 0-17 49 2.71%
18-24 47 2.60%
25-34 180 9.94%
35-44 227 12.54%
45-54 322 17.79%
55-64 344 19.01%
65-74 309 17.07%
75-110 332 18.34%
Total 1810 100.00%
Table 13-5 lists COVID-19 fatalities by age group in Monterey County.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-17 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Table 13-5: COVID-19 Fatalities Among Residents by Age Group Table 13-5
COVID-19 Fatalities Among Monterey County Residents by Age Group Age in Years Number of Fatalities Proportion of Fatalities 0-34 13 2.22%
35-44 15 2.56%
45-54 49 8.36%
55-64 104 17.75%
65-74 126 21.50%
75+ 279 47.61%
Total 586 100.00%
13.2.2 LOCATION
All of the County is susceptible to the human health hazards discussed in this chapter. While some hazards, such as the West Nile Virus and Lyme Disease, can have a geographic presence within the County, other diseases can cause exposure to the County from outside the local region. Local residents who travel can become exposed to diseases while abroad and bring the diseases back with them, potentially placing the region at risk for exposure. COVID-19, for example, may be transported into the County, through residents and visitors who travel extensively. It is difficult to map the extent of human-health hazards compared to others, such as floods, wildfires, and dam failures.
13.2.3 FREQUENCY
Due to increased air travel and growing population, the probability of a communicable disease epidemic is a growing threat. Certain human health hazards, such as influenza, can be expected seasonally, with variations on specific strains year to year. Additionally, tick-borne diseases are likely to increase during spring and fall, when people participate in outdoor activities such as hiking.
The frequency of other health hazards is difficult to establish and depends largely on the unique circumstances surrounding a localized outbreak and its subsequent expansion into epidemics.
While the probability of a major infectious disease outbreak is relatively low, it can have catastrophic social and economic consequences.
Influenza: According to the CDC, influenza has a predictable pattern and a near certainty of occurrence. The CDC estimated that on average, about 8% of the US population gets sick from flu each season, with a range of between 3% and 11%, depending on the season. 63 COVID-19: A report released by the World Health Organization and the China Joint Commission found that transmission rates of COVID-19 vary based on location. In general, between 1% and
63 Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-18 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
5% of people in contact with a confirmed case of the virus subsequently, become a laboratory- confirmed case of COVID-19. 64
West Nile Virus: In California, mosquitoes are monitored and controlled primarily to reduce cases of West Nile Virus, malaria, encephalitis, dog heartworm, and sensitivity to bites. Human mosquito-borne diseases, including West Nile Virus, have declined significantly in California since the creation of mosquito and vector control agencies.
Lyme Disease: There have been 12 confirmed cases of Lyme disease in Monterey County between 2009-2019. Cases are expected to continue to develop, and instances may increase with warming temperatures due to climate change.
The frequency and probability of other diseases discussed in this profile are unpredictable and contingent on factors such as public awareness, treatment options, and vaccination rates.
13.2.4 SEVERITY
The severity of the human health hazard varies from individual to individual. Typically, young children and older adults are more susceptible to acquiring communicable diseases due to developing or diminishing immune systems or experiencing adverse effects from extreme weather conditions. These populations often experience the most severe of symptoms, as their immune systems are not capable of fighting off infection or efficiently regulating temperature.
In general, severity varies depending on the pathology of the disease, the health of the infected, and the availability of treatments for alleviating symptoms or curing the disease.
13.2.5 WARNING TIME
Warning time for public health risks varies from a few hours or days to a few months, depending on the illness and outbreak to the population.
13.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
Human health hazards are not like natural hazards that have measurable secondary impacts, such as earthquakes, floods, or wildfires. This is primarily due to the fact that human health hazards do not generally impact buildings and critical infrastructure as natural hazards do. The largest secondary impact caused by human health hazards would be economic. Large outbreaks of any human health hazard could reduce the workforce significantly, causing businesses and agencies to close or be greatly impacted.
Moreover, as the COVID-19 pandemic is revealed, a pandemic can add significant challenges to ongoing hazard mitigation efforts, not to mention confusing and complicating response efforts for other natural hazard events. This is an emerging issue, and developments result in guidance
64 Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-19 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
changes. Mitigating the impacts of the pandemic, in many instances, means mitigating the impact of a pandemic to other hazards that could occur simultaneously.
Another secondary impact could be stigmatization. The fear of the health hazard and fear of the unknown could lead to isolation, violence, and self-inflicted injury. Hospitals and healthcare providers could be overwhelmed with the “worried well” seeking care and comfort. Education and providing key and critical information can reduce and mitigate this secondary risk.
13.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
13.4.1 POPULATION
All citizens in the County could be susceptible to the human health hazards discussed in this chapter. A large outbreak or epidemic, a pandemic, or a use of biological agents as a weapon of mass destruction could have devastating effects on the population. While all of the population is at risk to the human health hazards discussed in this chapter, the young and the elderly, those with compromised immune systems, and those with special needs are most vulnerable.
The introduction of a disease such as the plague or influenza could rapidly impact those at risk.
13.4.2 PROPERTY
None of the health hazards discussed in this chapter would have significant impact on the structural environment or property.
13.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
None of the health hazards discussed in this chapter would have significant impact on the critical facilities or infrastructure of the County. However, health care facilities (including long- term care and clinics and even veterinary offices) are prepared for pandemic disease hazards.
Emergency management planning incorporates all disciplines responding to an event, (fire agencies, law enforcement, first responder ground and air ambulance agencies, public health, mental and spiritual health). Planning includes identifying shelters, alternate treatment facilities, isolation capacity, and methods to immediately expand physical and human resources.
13.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
None of the health hazards discussed in this chapter would have significant impact on the environment of the planning area. While many of the vectors of the health hazards discussed in this chapter (mosquitoes, rodents, fleas, ticks, and deer flies) rely on local or regional environments for their survival, the human health hazard that they carry or potentially transmit would have no significant impact on the environment.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 13-20 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
13.4.5 ECONOMY
The economic impact of a human health hazard could be localized to a single region or population or could be widespread. The impact could be significant, depending on the hazard, number of cases and the availability of resources to care for those affected by the hazard.
Other financial impacts could be absorbed or managed by the organization affected.
13.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
Unless a catastrophic incident occurs, it is estimated that the County’s population will continue to grow. When more people visit Monterey County or move into the area, the impacts from and the potential for a pandemic outbreak rises. Urban areas, in particular, will become more vulnerable as density increases and illnesses or contamination spread more rapidly. The potential for communicable diseases and vector-borne diseases in the County is not likely to lessen or prohibit growth or development.
13.6 ISSUES
Important issues associated with the human health hazards include the following:
• Prevention through vaccination and personal emergency and disaster preparation will help to reduce the impacts of human health hazards
• Medical and response personnel need to be integrated in a unified command to provide care when needed in response to human health hazards.
• Medical and response personnel must be adequately trained and supplied. • A system needs to be in place for informing the public with a unified message about a human health hazard.
• Health agencies and facilities require surge capacity management and adaptation to the rising number and needs of the region.
• Critical facilities may not have adequate fresh air/ ventilation to be appropriate for essential work during pandemic.
• Need for additional sheltering locations in event of pandemic social distancing needs paired with another hazard event (flood, wildfire, earthquake) • COVID-19 exists as a threat to the entire population of Monterey County.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-1 SEVERE WEATHER
14. SEVERE WEATHER
14.1 OVERVIEW
Severe weather refers to any dangerous meteorological phenomena with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. Severe weather can be categorized into two groups: general severe weather (systems that form over wide geographic areas) and localized severe weather (systems with a more limited geographic area). The most common severe weather events that impact Monterey County and that are profiled in this chapter are:
• Severe Winter Storms
• Extreme Cold and Freeze
• Windstorms
• Extreme Heat
Due to the size of the County and changes in elevation and climate, weather conditions can vary greatly. The proximity to the Pacific Ocean both moderates and exaggerates certain types of adverse weather. Winter storms impacting coastal portions of the County tend to be more extreme than in the inland portions. The ocean’s influence is also a significant factor in moderating extreme hot and cold temperatures, hailstorms, and other cold weather events.
These events are rare and short lived, causing little if any life-threatening situations and only occasional significant damage to property or agricultural concerns.
When reading this chapter, it is important to note that when the term “severe weather” is used, it is referring in aggregate to the sub-hazards profiled in this chapter. These hazards have been grouped because each hazard can impact and has impacted the entire County and has no
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-2 SEVERE WEATHER
clearly defined extent or location mapping. Since there is no clearly defined extent or location mapping available for these hazards, no geospatial analysis is available to support exposure or vulnerability analysis. Quantitative analysis is included from the FEMA National Risk Assessment, but the analyses for these hazards are mainly qualitative.
14.1.1 SEVERE WINTER STORMS
Most severe winter storms in Monterey County consist of heavy rain events, sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms, high winds, dense fog, hail, and freeze events. Heavy rain refers to events where the amount of rain exceeds normal levels. The amount of precipitation needed to qualify as heavy rain varies with location and season.
Monterey County’s weather is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and routine climate patterns such as El Niño. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a pattern found in the tropical Pacific when there are fluctuations in temperatures between the ocean and atmosphere. During El Niño, the surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are weaker than normal and the ocean surface is at above-average temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically develops over North America during the winter season causing the severe winter storms experienced by the County. This climate pattern occurs every few years and brings with it above-average rain and snow across the southern region of United States, especially in California.
A relatively common weather pattern that brings southwest winds and heavy rain to California is often referred to as an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow regions in the atmosphere that transport most of the water vapor carried away from the tropics. These columns of vapor move with the weather, carrying large amounts of water vapor and strong winds. When the atmospheric rivers make landfall, they often release this water vapor in the form of rain or snow, causing flooding and mudslides.
For more information on flooding events or landslides caused by heavy rain, refer to Flooding in Section 10 or Slope Failure in Section 15.
Hail is formed when water droplets freeze and thaw as they are thrown high into the upper atmosphere by the violent internal forces of thunderstorms. Hail is sometimes associated with severe storms within Monterey County. Hailstones are usually less than two inches in diameter and can fall at speeds of 120 miles per hour (mph). Severe hailstorms can be quite destructive, causing damage to roofs, buildings, automobiles, vegetation, and crops. Dense fog is also sometimes associated with severe storms in the County. Dense fog reduces visibility making driving more dangerous. The National Weather Service issues dense fog advisories when appropriate.
14.1.2 EXTREME COLD AND FREEZE
Extreme cold often accompanies a winter storm or is left in its wake. A freeze refers to a particularly cold spell of weather where the temperature drops below 32 degrees, most COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-3 SEVERE WEATHER
typically in the early morning hours. Usually, these cold spells will last only two or three days when the ocean influence will overcome the cold front and the early morning temperatures will return to the normal 45 to 55-degree range. Rainfall during these periods may result in snowfall in the higher elevations of the County. Prolonged exposure to cold can be life-threatening, particularly to infants and the elderly. Freezing temperatures can cause significant damage to the agricultural industry.
14.1.3 WINDSTORM
Windstorms are generally short-duration events involving straight-line winds or gusts of over 50 mph, strong enough to cause property damage. Windstorms are especially dangerous in areas with significant trees and areas with exposed property, poorly constructed buildings, manufactured housing units, major infrastructure, and above-ground utility lines. A windstorm can topple trees and power lines, cause damage to residential, commercial, and critical facilities, and leave debris in its wake.
Damaging winds are classified as those exceeding 60 mph and can reach up to 100 mph, producing a damage path extending for hundreds of miles. There are seven types of damaging winds:
• Straight-Line Winds: Any thunderstorm wind that is not associated with rotation; this term is used primarily to differentiate from tornado winds. Most thunderstorms produce some straight-line winds as a result of outflow generated by the downdraft. • Downdrafts: A small-scale column of air that rapidly sinks toward the ground. • Downbursts: A strong downdraft with horizontal dimensions larger than 2.5 miles resulting in an outward burst or damaging winds on or near the ground. Downburst winds may begin as a microburst and spread out over a wider area, sometimes producing damage similar to a strong tornado. Although usually associated with thunderstorms, downbursts can occur with showers too weak to produce thunder. • Microbursts: A small, concentrated downburst that produces an outward burst of damaging winds at the surface. Microbursts are generally less than 2.5 miles across and short-lived, lasting only 5-10 minutes, with maximum wind speeds up to 168 mph. There are both wet and dry microbursts. A wet microburst is accompanied by heavy precipitation. Dry microbursts, common in the high plains and the intermountain west, occur with little or no precipitation reaching the ground. • Gust Front: A gust front is the leading edge of rain-cooled air that clashes with warmer thunderstorm inflow. Gust fronts are characterized by a wind shift, temperature drop, and gusty winds out ahead of a thunderstorm. Sometimes the winds push up air above them, forming a shelf cloud or detached roll cloud.
• Derecho: A derecho is a widespread thunderstorm wind caused when new thunderstorms form along the leading edge of an outflow boundary (the boundary formed by horizontal spreading of thunderstorm cooled air). The word “derecho” is of COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-4 SEVERE WEATHER
Spanish origin and means “straight ahead.” Thunderstorms feed on the boundary and continue to reproduce. Derechos typically occur in summer when complexes of thunderstorms form over plains, producing heavy rain and severe wind. The damaging winds can last a long time and cover a large area.
• Bow Echo: A bow echo is a linear wind front bent outward in a bow shape. Damaging straight-line winds often occur near the center of a bow echo. Bow echoes can be 200 miles long, last for several hours, and produce extensive wind damage at the ground.
High winds can occur during a severe
thunderstorm, with a strong weather
system, or can flow down a mountain.
When winds are sustained at 40-50
mph, isolated wind damage is
possible. Widespread significant wind
damage can occur with higher wind
speeds. During strong thunderstorms,
straight line wind speeds can exceed
100 mph. High winds can blow objects
around and pose a significant threat to
public safety.
Windstorms can also be created by
thermally forced circulations during
the spring to summer months. Known
as sea breezes, these winds are
strongest when the land becomes
warmer than the adjacent ocean.
Driven by the differential heating of
land versus water, sea breeze
formation is conducive under synoptic
conditions that allow strong heating of
land areas. The wind direction
associated with the sea breeze is
directed inland along the surface
pressure gradient. Therefore, sea
breeze fronts generally push inland for
approximately 25 miles as the day
progresses. The sea breeze circulation
will intensify as the daytime solar
heating reaches its maximum before
diminishing and reversing to a land
breeze circulation as the land cools.
Mitigation Success Story
City of Salinas Free Tree Program
In February 2017, 60-mile per hour winds and heavy
rainfall brought down power lines and trees. Over
600 trees were lost in the storm, exacerbating a
long growing problem. The City had already lost
close to 350 trees, largely due to drought. The City
completed an Urban Forest Assessment and started
the "Free Tree--Adopt A Tree Program.” Residents
can apply to "Adopt-A-Tree" and the City will
purchase and plant a tree if the resident agrees to
water it until its established.
Planting trees is a great example of a multi-benefit
mitigation project. Trees contribute significantly to
environmental quality and human health and well-
being. The urban forest is a form of “green
infrastructure” that provides millions of dollars of
benefit at a very low cost. Trees reduce the impact
of weather and climate hazards. During storms,
trees absorb rainwater, reducing runoff and
preventing pollutants from entering waterways.
Large tree canopies create shade and conserve
energy, which reduces the impact of extreme heat
and helps meet climate change goals.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-5 SEVERE WEATHER
All of Monterey County is subject to strong southeasterly winds associated with powerful cold fronts. These winds, which are usually part of a strong Pacific storm, generally occur during the winter months, from November to February. As the wind passes through the narrowing Salinas valley, the wind velocity increases and moisture-holding capacity decreases. As such, this wind is relatively hot and dry in southern portions of the valley, such as Soledad. Sea breeze winds, with average winds speeds of 10–15 mph, can be expected annually from March through October.
14.1.4 EXTREME HEAT
Extreme heat is unexpected, unusual, or unseasonable hot temperature that can create dangerous situations. Heat waves are periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks.
According to information provided by FEMA, extreme heat is defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the average high temperature for the region and last for several weeks. Heat kills by taxing the human body beyond its abilities. In a normal year, about 175 Americans succumb to the demands of summer heat.
Ambient air temperature and relative humidity are components of heat conditions, together defining a heat index, as shown Figure 14-1. The Heat Index is a measure of how hot it really feels when relative humidity is factored in with the actual air temperature.
Figure 14-1
National Weather Service Heat Index
Figure 14-1: National Weather Service Heat Index
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-6 SEVERE WEATHER
14.2 HAZARD PROFILE
14.2.1 HISTORY
Severe Winter Storms and Extreme Freeze
Table 14-1 summaries severe winter storm and freeze events that have occurred in the County.
Table 14-1: Severe Winter Storms and Extreme Freeze Events (2010 -2020) Table 14-1
Severe Winter Storms and Extreme Freeze Events in Monterey County (2010-2020) Date Description
11/10/2020
A cold airmass brought below freezing temperatures. Overnight low temperature records were broken in King City. Warnings were issued for the Salinas Valley where lows dropped into the 20s.
3/17/2020
A storm brought several days of showers. Vehicles were reported as spinning out on US-101 S near King City due to accumulating hail on roadway.
2/3/2020-
2/5/2020
As a low-pressure system exited, skies began to clear, and wind sheltered locations saw a drop in overnight temperatures to below freezing.
Recorded temperatures reached as low as 18 degrees.
11/29/2019 An atmospheric river caused a closure of Hwy 1 at Paul's Slide. Parkfield recorded heavy rainfall.
10/31/2019
A dry airmass and lighter winds led to freezing temperatures in the interior valleys. A Freeze Warning was issued for the Salinas Valley and Interior Monterey County.
2/17/2019 Isolated thunderstorms developed late afternoon and produced hail and lightning over the region.
2/10/2019 A cold front moved through the region. Hail covered the greens at Pebble Beach suspending final rounds of the Pro Am.
2/5/2019-
2/6/2019
A very cold airmass brought snow to lower elevation peaks prompting a rare Winter Weather Advisory. Junipero Serra Peak received about 1 ft of snow and Cone Peak received about 8 in of snow.
1/1/2019-
1/2/2019
Cold overnight temperatures in the mid-30s to low 40s across Santa Clara County resulted in two fatalities. Widespread freezing temperatures were reported elsewhere across the region.
12/28/2018-
12/29/2018
A cold dry air mass caused temperatures to drop below freezing overnight. This prompted the issuance of a freeze warning. 11/29/2018 A cool unstable air mass caused scattered thunderstorms that produced lightning and small hail.
4/16/2018 A late season storm brought rain, winds, hail, thunder, and lightning to the region.
3/3/2018 A strong cold front brought widespread rainfall causing localized flooding, strong winds, and lighting.
1/22/2017 A storm brought rain, lightning, wind, hail, snow, and record-breaking surf.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-7 SEVERE WEATHER
Table 14-1
Severe Winter Storms and Extreme Freeze Events in Monterey County (2010-2020) Date Description
1/20/2017 A storm brought heavy rain, strong winds, and hail. 4/27/2016 Low level urban flooding due to heavy rain and hail were reported. 2/9/2015
A strong winter storm impacted California following up the driest January on record. The storm brought heavy rain, winds, and damage to trees and power lines along with some minor flooding. The County gauge on Three Peaks at Elevation 3362 feet measured a 72-hour rainfall total of 10.4 inches.
12/11/2014
An atmospheric river brought a storm with heavy rain and winds. Boats in Monterey Harbor had to be pumped out to avoid sinking. Rain overwhelmed a sewage plant in Castroville causing a spill. 11/30/2012
A series of significant winter storms brought strong and gusty winds, heavy rainfall, high surf. Minor urban and small stream flooding was observed across Monterey County due to the heavy rainfall. 1/1/2011
A storm system brought strong gusty winds and heavy rain. A large tree fell on an occupied vehicle causing the closure of State Route 183 in Monterey.
1/20/2010
The third in a series of storms brought strong winds and heavy rain. An intense hailstorm occurred near Ryan Ranch just southeast of Del Rey Oaks.
Source: NOAA Storm Events Database
Windstorm
A windstorm in October 2009 was the result of a strong low-pressure system caused an estimated $1 million in damage, mainly due to falling trees hitting cars and buildings in the affected area. A wind event from November 2011 caused damage and one fatality in Big Sur due to a falling tree. In addition to winter windstorms, every year, between the months of March and October, when the Pacific High attains its greatest strength, prevailing northwest sustained surface winds in Salinas Valley reach average speeds of 10 to 15 mph with associated wind gusts up to 45 mph.
The County has also recorded five tornadoes between 1950 and 2020. All five tornadoes occurred in the northeastern portion of Monterey County. The largest tornado, occurred in 1992, reaching a magnitude of F1 (maximum wind speeds of 73–112 mph) resulted in two injuries from flying glass.
Extreme Heat
In October 2012, an unseasonable heat wave gripped the Monterey area. Temperatures soared well into the 90s and 100s, which resulted in all-time record high temperatures for October, reaching 100 and 101 in Salinas. Farm workers who were picking in the fields near Salinas were negatively impacted by the excessive heat, which lead to a fatality of a farm worker on October COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-8 SEVERE WEATHER
2. In July of 2006, intense heat settled over the County with temperatures soaring to as high as 115°F. Temperatures exceeded 100°F for 15 consecutive days in July, with high temperatures soaring to over 110°F. Overnight lows stayed in the mid-60s for several nights.
14.2.2 LOCATION
All severe weather events profiled in this assessment have the potential to happen anywhere in the County. Maps of the average distribution of weather conditions were used to provide an indication of which areas may be more vulnerable to different severe weather hazards.
Severe Winter Storms
As seen in Figure 14-2, higher annual precipitation occurs along the Big Sur coast, in the Del Monte Forest, and in the hills above the Salinas Valley. These areas therefore may be more likely to experience heavy rain during a winter storm. Communities in low lying areas next to streams, lakes, or the ocean are likely more susceptible to flooding following heavy rain events.
Figure 14-2
30-Year Average Annual Precipitation in Monterey County
Figure 14-2: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation in Monterey County
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-9 SEVERE WEATHER
Extreme Cold and Freeze
Exposure to extremely cold temperatures varies depending on distance from the coast and elevation. Coastal temperatures are lower, while inland and higher elevation areas experience a greater range of temperatures. Historically extreme freeze events have been most frequently experienced in the mountains and interior valleys in the County, notably the Southern end of the Salinas Valley.
As seen in Figure 14-3, mountainous areas of the County, including the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges, areas along the Big Sur Coast, and the Southern portion of the Salinas Valley experience the coldest average temperatures. These areas therefore may be more likely to experience colder than average temperatures during extreme cold and freeze events.
Figure 14-3
30-Year Average Minimum Temperatures in Monterey County
Figure 14-3: 30-Year Average Minimum Temperatures in Monterey County Windstorm
The Monterey Bay acts as a funnel, channeling ocean air through the Salinas Valley. Warmer air from the southern end of the valley warms and rises, producing pressure that in its turn draws in cooler air from Monterey Bay. The wind created as a result is shifted from the broad expanse
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-10 SEVERE WEATHER
of the Bay through the narrower Salinas Valley. The geographical constriction produces a decrease in air pressure, which correspondingly increases the flow of cold ocean air across the valley.
As seen in Figure 14-4, the fastest wind speeds occur in the Salinas Valley. Portions of the Peninsula, Carmel Highlands, and Monterey Bay may also experience high winds. Wind events are likely to be most damaging in areas that are heavily wooded.
Figure 14-4
Land-Based Wind Speed (Meters/Second)
Figure 14-4: Land-Based Wind Speed (Meters/Second)
Extreme Heat
Proximity to extreme heat varies depending on distance from the coast and elevation. Coastal temperatures are lower, while inland and higher elevation areas experience a greater range of temperatures. The inland regions of the County have historically been the most likely to experience high heat conditions.
As seen in Figure 14-5, areas of South County, the lower Salinas Valley, and mountainous areas in the southern region of the County, including the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges are the
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-11 SEVERE WEATHER
most prone to high temperatures and are the area’s most likely to experience extreme heat or heat waves.
Figure 14-5
30-Year Average Maximum Temperatures in Monterey County
Figure 14-5: 30-Year Average Maximum Temperatures in Monterey County
14.2.3 FREQUENCY
Predicting the frequency of severe weather events in a constantly changing climate is a difficult task. The County can expect to experience exposure to and adverse impacts from some type of severe weather event at least annually. Severe storms and rainfall are limited almost entirely to the winter season (November - April), while extreme heat is mostly limited to summer months.
The FEMA National Risk Index calculates an annualized frequency value for certain natural hazards in Monterey County. The natural hazard annualized frequency was defined by FEMA as the expected frequency or probability of a hazard occurrence per year. Annualized frequency was derived either from the number of recorded hazard occurrences each year over a given period or the modeled probability of a hazard occurrence each year. Since most severe weather
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-12 SEVERE WEATHER
hazards have tracked actual hazard occurrences, annualized frequency was based on either the number of distinct hazard events that have occurred or the count of days on which a hazard has occurred.
Table 14-2 summarizes the annualized frequency values and hazard occurrence basis (event or event-day) provided by the FEMA National Risk Index for the severe weather hazards that were included in the Index.
Table 14-2: Annualized Frequency of Severe Weather Events in Monterey County Table 14-2
Annualized Frequency of Severe Weather Hazards in Monterey County Hazard Hazard Occurrence Basis Annualized Frequency
Hail Distinct Events 0.47 Events per Year
Heat Wave Event-Days 1.21 Event Days per Year
Lightning Distinct Events 0.36 Events per Year
Strong Wind Distinct Events 0.13 Events per Year
Tornado Distinct Events 1.22 Events per Year
Winter Weather Event-Days 0.07 Event Days per Year
Source: FEMA National Risk Index
14.2.4 SEVERITY
Severe Winter Storms
The most common problems associated with severe storms are immobility and loss of utilities.
Fatalities are uncommon but can occur. Roads may become impassable due to flooding, downed trees, or a landslide. Power lines may be downed due to high winds, and services such as water or phone may not be able to operate without power.
Heavy rain can have significant impacts, including flash flooding, mudslides, and landslides.
Stormwater runoff from heavy rains can also impair water quality by washing pollutants into water bodies. Thunderstorms carry the same risks as heavy rain events, and depending on the type of storm, they can also include tornados, lightning, and heavy winds, increasing risk of injury and property damage. Lightning strikes are a danger during thunderstorms and can cause death or injury to one or several persons. Long-term injuries from lightning strike can include memory and attention loss, chronic numbness, muscle spasm, stiffness, depression, hearing loss and sleep disturbance.
Extreme Cold and Freeze
Late or early freeze events can have a devastating effect on agriculture and the economy of the region. Crops can be damaged by below-freezing temperatures. Prolonged exposure to cold can cause frostbite or hypothermia and can be life-threatening. Infants and the elderly are most susceptible. Pipes may freeze and burst in homes or buildings that are poorly insulated or without heat.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-13 SEVERE WEATHER
Windstorms
Windstorms are a frequent problem in the County and have been known to cause damage to utilities. The predicted wind speed given in wind warnings issued by the National Weather Service is for a one-minute average; gusts may be 25 to 30% higher. Tornadoes are potentially the most dangerous of local storms, but they are not common. If a major tornado were to strike within the populated areas of the County, damage could be widespread. Businesses could be forced to close for an extended period or permanently, fatalities could be high, many people could be homeless for an extended period, and routine services such as telephone or power could be disrupted. Buildings may be damaged or destroyed.
Extreme Heat
Extreme heat is the primary weather-related cause of death in the US Extreme heat can kill by taxing the human body beyond its abilities. Since heat affects everybody differently and to better address heat risk the National Weather Service (NWS) developed an experimental HeatRisk
forecast, which provides one value each day that indicates the approximate level of heat risk concern for any location, along with identifying the groups who are most at risk.
The scale is summarized in Table 14-3.
Table 14-3: NWS Experimental HeatRisk Forecast Risk Levels Table 14-3
NWS Experimental HeatRisk Forecast Risk Levels
Category Level Meaning
Green 0 No Elevated Risk
Yellow 1 Low Risk for those extremely sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration
Orange 2 Moderate Risk for those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration
Red 3 High Risk for much of the population, especially those who are heat sensitive and those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration Magenta 4 Very High Risk for entire population due to long duration heat, with little to no relief overnight
Heat can cause a variety of health-related issues including:
• Heat Exhaustion: Heat exhaustion is a mild form of heat-related illness that can develop after several days of exposure to high temperatures and inadequate or unbalanced replacement of fluids. It is the body’s response to an excessive loss of the water and salt contained in sweat. Those most prone to heat exhaustion are elderly people, people with high blood pressure, and people working or exercising in a hot environment. • Heat Cramps: Heat cramps usually affect people who sweat a lot. Sweating depletes the body’s salt and moisture. The low salt level in the muscles can cause heat cramps. Heat cramps may also be a symptom of heat exhaustion.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-14 SEVERE WEATHER
• Heat Stroke: Heat stroke is a severe, dangerous form of heat-related illness. It occurs when the body’s temperature rises rapidly, the sweating mechanism fails, and the body is unable to cool down. Body temperature may rise to 106°F or higher within 10 to 15 minutes. Heat stroke can cause death or permanent disability.
14.2.5 WARNING TIME
Meteorologists can often predict the likelihood of a severe weather event. This can give several days of warning time. However, meteorologists cannot predict the exact time of onset or severity of the storm. Some storms may come on more quickly and have only a few hours of warning time. The Monterey Weather Forecast Office of the NWS monitors weather stations and issues watches and warnings when appropriate to alert government agencies and the public of possible or impending weather events. The watches and warnings are broadcast over NOAA weather radio and are forwarded to the local media for retransmission using the Emergency Alert System.
14.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
The most significant secondary hazards associated with severe local storms are floods, falling and downed trees, mudslides, landslides, and downed power lines. Rapidly melting snow combined with heavy rain can overwhelm both natural and man-made drainage systems, causing overflow and property destruction. Landslides occur when the soil on slopes become oversaturated and fail. As noted previously, for information on the impacts of hazards related to severe weather, refer to Flooding in Section 10, Slope Failure in Section 15, and Utility Interruption in Section 17.
14.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
A lack of clearly defined extent and location mapping for the severe weather hazards profiled in this chapter prevented a detailed analysis for exposure and vulnerability. However, it can be assumed that the entire County is exposed to some extent to the severe weather hazards profiled in this assessment. Certain areas are more exposed due to geographic location and local weather patterns.
The FEMA National Risk Index calculates exposure and annual expected loss of building value and population for some severe weather hazards in Monterey County. Though the entire County is considered vulnerable to these hazards, the FEMA data was used in this risk assessment to provide some scale for the potential risk and impacts.
14.4.1 POPULATION
Population exposed in Monterey County to severe weather based on the FEMA National Risk Index is summarized in Table 14-4.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-15 SEVERE WEATHER
Table 14-4: Population Exposed to Severe Weather Hazards in Monterey County Table 14-4
Population Exposed to Severe Weather Hazards in Monterey County Hazard Exposed Population
Hail 415,057
Heat Wave 413,337
Lightning 415,057
Strong Wind 415,057
Tornado 85
Winter Weather 12,879
Source: FEMA National Risk Index
Populations living at higher elevations with large stands of trees or power lines may be more susceptible to wind damage and black out, while populations in low-lying areas are at risk for possible flooding following severe winter storms.
Vulnerable populations are the elderly, low income or linguistically isolated populations, people with life-threatening illnesses, and residents living in areas that are isolated from major roads.
Power outages can be life threatening to those dependent on electricity for life support.
Isolation of these populations is a significant concern. These populations face isolation and exposure during severe weather events and could suffer more secondary effects of the hazard.
14.4.2 PROPERTY
All property is vulnerable during the severe weather events profiled in this chapter. Building value exposed and the expected annual loss of building value in Monterey County to severe weather based on the FEMA National Risk Index is summarized in Table 14-5.
Table 14-5: Exposed and Expected Annual Loss of Building Value to Severe Weather Table 14-5
Exposed and Expected Annual Loss of Building Value to Severe Weather Hazards Hazard Exposed Building Value Expected Annual Loss- Building Value Hail $41,169,506,000 $1
Heat Wave $40,973,571,144 $72
Lightning $41,169,506,000 $5,966
Strong Wind $41,169,506,000 $16,331
Tornado $8,429,968.67 $204,827
Winter Weather $2,219,002,076 $4,195
Source: FEMA National Risk Index
Properties in poor condition or in particularly vulnerable locations may be at risk of the most damage. Those in higher elevations and on ridges may be more prone to wind damage. Those that are located under or near overhead lines or near large trees may be vulnerable to falling ice or may be damaged in the event of a collapse. Extreme heat events are not known for COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-16 SEVERE WEATHER
causing direct damage to buildings, but may damage building systems such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems.
14.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
All critical facilities are likely exposed to all of the severe weather hazards profiled in this assessment. The most common problems associated with severe weather are loss of utilities.
Prolonged periods of extreme heat could result in power outages caused by increased demand for power for cooling. Downed power lines associated with wind and/or thunderstorm events can cause blackouts, leaving large areas isolated. Phone, water, and sewer systems may not function. Roads may become impassable due to secondary hazards such as mudslides and landslides.
14.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
The environment is highly exposed to severe weather events profiled in this assessment.
Natural habitats such as streams and trees are exposed to the elements during a severe storm and risk major damage and destruction. Prolonged rains can saturate soils and lead to slope failure. Flood events caused by severe weather or snowmelt can produce river channel migration or damage riparian habitat. Storm surges can erode beachfront bluffs and redistribute sediment loads. Vegetation can die as a result of prolonged periods of extreme heat.
14.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
Economic impact of a severe storm is typically short term. Lightning can cause power outages and fires. Hail can destroy exposed property; an example is car lots, where entire inventories can be damaged. Generally, long-term economic impacts center more around hazards that cascade from a severe thunderstorm, including wildfires ignited by lightning, and flooding. In general, all severe weather poses a risk to the agriculture economy in the County.
14.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
All future development will be affected by severe storms, extreme heat, and high winds. The ability to withstand impacts lies in sound land use practices and consistent enforcement of codes and regulations for new construction. New critical facilities, such as communication towers should be built to withstand heavy rain, wind, and hail damage. Future development projects should consider adverse weather hazards at the planning, engineering, and architectural design stage with the goal of reducing vulnerability. Stormwater master planning and site review should account for buildings to withstand adverse weather events considered for all new development. Thus, development trends in the County are not expected to increase overall vulnerability to the hazard but all development will be affected by adverse weather and storm events and population growth will increase potential exposure to hazards such as thunderstorms and dense fog.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 14-17 SEVERE WEATHER
14.6 ISSUES
Important issues associated with a severe weather in Monterey County include the following:
• Older building stock in the County is built to low code standards or none at all. These structures could be highly vulnerable to severe weather events such as windstorms. • Cities may need to open cooling centers during extreme heat events. • Redundancy of power supply must be evaluated.
• The capacity for backup power generation is limited.
• Dead or dying trees as a result of drought conditions are more susceptible to falling during severe storm events.
• Public education on dealing with the impacts of severe weather needs to continue to be provided so that citizens can be better informed and prepared for severe weather events. In particular, fog should be considered since fog may be downplayed despite its potential for transportation accidents.
• Debris management (downed trees, etc.) must be addressed, because debris can impact the severity of severe weather events, requires coordination efforts, and may require additional funding.
• The effects of climate change may result in an increase of heavy rain or more atmospheric storm events and will likely lead to increased temperatures and changes in overall precipitation amounts.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-1 SLOPE FAILURE
15. SLOPE FAILURE
15.1 OVERVIEW
The term “slope failure” describes a wide variety of processes that result in the downward and outward movement of slope-forming materials including rock, soil, artificial fill, or a combination of these. The materials may move by falling, toppling, sliding, spreading, or flowing. Slope failure can range from slow moving rotational slumps and earth flows, which can slowly distress structures but are less threatening to personal safety, to fast-moving rock avalanches and debris flows that are a serious threat to structures and have been responsible for most fatalities during landslide events.
Slope failure occurs when the strength of the soils forming the slope is exceeded by pressure, such as weight, gravity, or saturation. This can be initiated by storms, earthquakes, fires, or human modification of the land. Large debris can block transportation routes, dam creeks and drainages, and contaminate water supplies. When these hazards affect transportation routes, they are frequently expensive to clean-up and can have significant economic impacts.
15.1.1 TYPES OF SLOPE FAILURE
The various types of slope failure can be differentiated by the kinds of material involved and the mode of movement. The term encompasses five modes of slope movement: falls, topples, slides, spreads, and flows. These are further subdivided by the type of geologic material.
Falls: Falls are abrupt, downward movements of rock or earth, or both, that detach from steep slopes or cliffs. Falls are triggered by the undercutting of the slope by natural processes such as
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-2 SLOPE FAILURE
streams and rivers or differential weathering, human activities such as excavation during road building and/or maintenance, and earthquake shaking or other intense vibration. Steep or vertical slopes, particularly in coastal areas, and along rocky banks of rivers and streams are susceptible to falls.
Topple: A topple is the forward rotation out of a slope of a mass of soil or rock. Toppling is driven by gravity exerted by the weight of material upslope from the displaced mass or is due to cracks in the mass. Topples can consist of rock, debris, or earth materials.
Slides: A slide is a mass movement of soil or rock occurring where there is a distinct zone of weakness that separates the slide material from more stable underlying material. Slides can be triggered by intense and/or sustained rainfall or rapid snowmelt which can saturate slopes.
Rapid drops in river level following floods, ground-water levels rising because of filling reservoirs, or the rise in level of streams, lakes, and rivers, which cause erosion at the base of slopes. Slides can also be earthquake induced.
Spreads: Lateral spreads are distinctive because they usually occur on very gentle slopes or flat terrain. The dominant mode of movement is lateral extension accompanied by shear or tensile fractures. The failure is caused by liquefaction, the process whereby saturated, loose, cohesionless sediments (usually sands and silts) are transformed from a solid into a liquefied state. Failure is usually triggered by rapid ground motion, such as that experienced during an earthquake, but can also be artificially induced.
Flows: A form of rapid mass movement in which loose soil, rock and sometimes organic matter combine with water to form a slurry that flows downslope.
Debris flows, rockslides, and flood flows will be described in more detail in this plan as they the most likely to occur in Monterey County.
Debris Flows
Debris flows are common types of fast-moving landslides in Monterey County. These flows generally occur during periods of intense rainfall. They usually start on steep hillsides as shallow landslides that liquefy and accelerate to speeds that are typically about 10 mph, but can exceed 35 mph. The consistency of debris flows ranges from watery mud to thick, rocky mud that can carry large items such as boulders, trees, and cars. They are particularly dangerous to life and property because of their high speeds and the sheer destructive force of their flow.
Debris flow risk in the County is primarily associated with burn scars. Vegetation and soil changes after a fire increase the runoff and erosion in a watershed, and significantly increase the likelihood of debris flows. Debris flows can initiate during even moderate rainstorms over burn areas and often occur with little warning. Post-fire flow can alternate between flood and debris flow. It is important to distinguish between flood flows and debris flows as both are risks in the County. Distinguishing between debris flow and flood deposits can be difficult, but certain sedimentary structures and textures can give clues to the mechanism of deposition.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-3 SLOPE FAILURE
Debris flows are more dangerous and more destructive and dangerous than floods because they often have peak discharge levels that are 10-50 times greater. Flow height can be up to 5 times greater with flow velocity that is flow velocity same or greater. They also contain much higher levels of sediment content which can cause faster and more uncontrollable flows.
Flood Flows
A flood flow differs from a flood in that the amount of suspended sediment is sufficient to significantly change fluid properties and sediment transport mechanisms. Large volumes of sand are transported in dynamic suspension throughout the water column, although maintenance of high sediment loads depends on flow velocity and turbulence. Flows can be highly erosive.
Rockslides
A rockslide, common along the Big Sur coast, is a slow-moving or “creeping” landslide in weathered, fractured, or otherwise-weakened rock. Movement on deep-seated rockslides typically is only fractions of an inch per year; however, an increase in rainfall or slope instability can accelerate movement to several yards a minute or faster.
15.1.2 SLOPE FAILURE CAUSES
Mass movements are caused by a combination of geological and climate conditions, as well as encroaching urbanization. Vulnerable natural conditions related to the geology, topography, and vegetation are affected by residential, agricultural, commercial, and industrial development and the infrastructure that supports it. Relative susceptibility to landslides can be described according to the following geologic conditions:
• Low: Flatlands and low relief terrain, includes mainly Quaternary deposits. In steep terrain, includes mainly crystalline basement rock, volcanic rock, and Cretaceous sandstone.
• Moderate: Moderately steep terrain underlain by mainly unconsolidated and weakly cemented sandstone, shale, and Franciscan Complex.
• High: Steep terrain underlain by mainly unconsolidated and weakly cemented sandstone, shale, Franciscan Complex, and existing landslides.
The factors that can contribute to slope failure include: Change in slope of the terrain; Increased load on the land; Shocks, vibrations, and earthquakes; Change in water content; Groundwater movement; Frost action; Weathering of rocks and erosion; Removing or changing the type of vegetation covering slopes.
Landslides can be initiated in slopes already on the verge of movement by rainfall, snowmelt, changes in water level, stream erosion, changes in ground water, earthquakes, volcanic activity, disturbance by human activities, or any combination of these factors. Earthquake shaking and other factors can also induce landslides underwater. These landslides are called submarine landslides. Submarine landslides sometimes cause tsunamis that damage coastal areas.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-4 SLOPE FAILURE
15.2 HAZARD PROFILE
15.2.1 HISTORY
Big Sur Coastline
The Big Sur area is one of the most landslide-prone
stretches of the California coast, with over 1,500
mapped historic large landslides. Table 15-1
summarizes the most destructive landslides that have
occurred along the Big Sur coast.
Historically, landslide activity has increased during
severe El Niño years. During the 1972–1973 El Niño
season, a landslide along the Big Sur coast resulted in one death. Throughout the 1997–1998 El Niño season,
Highway 1 closed all along the Big Sur Coast due to
flooding and mudslides and about 40 different
sections of the highway were damaged.
In more recent year’s numerous landslide events have
been recorded in Big Sur, damaging structures, and
forcing the closure of Highway 1. 2017 saw record
damage along Highway 1. In February, a column of the
Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge was displaced by an active
landslide, which moved eight inches in one night and
destabilized the bridge. This section of Highway 1 was
closed for eight months and the new bridge cost
about $24 million.
In March of 2017, Paul’s Slide buried Highway 1 with
debris and left only 11 feet of roadway. Around 2
million cubic yards of material came down the hill. In
May, at Mud Creek, a deep-rooted debris flow caused
by the heavy winter rains, covered a quarter mile of
the Highway 1 in 6 million cubic yards of debris, close to 40 feet of debris slid down the hillside. Caltrans
rebuilt the highway atop the slide in a $54 million, 14- month project.
In 2021, an atmospheric river resulted in a post-fire debris flow washing out a 150-foot-long stretch of Highway 1 near Rat Creek below the Dolan Fire burn scar. Flows also damaged another 60 locations along the highway.
Mitigation Success Story
Rain Rocks Shed/Pitkin’s Curve Bridge
Landslides repeatedly damaged Highway 1
at Pitkins Curve and Rain Rocks.
The Rain Rocks Shed/Pitkin’s Curve Bridge is
an innovative mitigation strategy. The new
bridge and shed allow rocks to keep rolling.
This is a unique and sustainable solution to
what was once an ongoing problem. Though
the project cost $39 million, over the 50-year
lifespan the cost of maintaining the highway
with the new structures is estimated at $1.7
million, while it would have cost
about $112 million
to maintain the
highway without
the project.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-5 SLOPE FAILURE
Table 15-1: Historic Large Landslides Along Highway 1 on the Big Sur Coast Table 15-1
Historic Large Landslides Along Highway 1 on the Big Sur Coast, Monterey County Location Date Event Event Narrative Cost
Big Sur 3/1/1983 Landslide
A series of storms caused four major
slides between January and April. A slide
in March, near Julia Pfeiffer Burns State
Park, was at the time the largest slide to
affect Hwy 1.
$10 million
Gorda 1/2/1997 Landslide A landslide near Gorda, closed Hwy 1 for one month.
$5.5
million
Big Sur 2/6/1998 Mudslide
El Niño storms caused severe damage to
Hwy 1. About 40 sections of Hwy 1 were
affected by flooding and landslides.
$32 million
Gorda 2/14/2000 Landslide
Hwy 1 at Pitkin’s Curve was closed due
to a landslide that took out both lanes
and created 7,000 truckloads of debris. A
secondary landslide occurred during
repair in March.
$3.4
million
Big Sur 2/1/2001 Landslide
A landslide above Pitkin’s Curve
disrupted traffic for 2 months, requiring
removal of 1,400 truckloads of debris.
$1.5
million
Big Sur 11/1/2008 Landslide
Heavy rain following the Basin Complex
fire resulted in debris flows and flash
flooding. A foot bridge, 2 fishponds, and
2 residences were damaged by a 6-foot
debris flow.
Big Sur 4/7/2009 Debris
Flow
Heavy rain on the Basin-Complex burn
scar, caused flash flooding and debris
flows. At least 3 separate debris flows
were reported along Hwy 1. At Big Sur
Lodge, vehicles were stuck in mud, and
one was forced into a culvert and buried.
Big Sur 3/16/2011 Landslide
Heavy rain in Big Sur washed out a 40 ft
section of Hwy 1 section near the Bixby
Creek Bridge and Rocky Creek.
$2.5
million
Gorda 4/14/2011 Landslide
A rock and mudslide closed Hwy 1 near
Alder Creek. The initial small slide was
cleared, but the storms from March
provided the necessary moisture to
cause the hillside to fail weeks later,
producing another much debris flow
later in April.
$5 million
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-6 SLOPE FAILURE
Table 15-1
Historic Large Landslides Along Highway 1 on the Big Sur Coast, Monterey County Location Date Event Event Narrative Cost
Posts 12/22/2012 Debris
Flow
An atmospheric river caused several
slides, including one at Partington Creek
that blocked Hwy 1 and a private road.
32 homes were isolated, and 40 tourists
were stranded.
Posts 2/9/2017 Debris
Flow
A slide closed Hwy 1 and displaced a
column of the Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge,
moving 8 inches in one night and
destabilizing the bridge. Caltrans
determined it was unrepairable and
closed the road for 8 months to build a
new bridge.
$24 million
Lucia 3/11/2017 Landslide
Paul’s Slide buried Hwy 1 with 2 million
cubic yards of debris leaving only 11 ft of
roadway. 435 residents were caught
between the slide and the closure at
Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge.
Gorda 5/19/2017 Debris
Flow
A deep-rooted debris flow at Mud Creek,
covered a quarter mile of the Hwy 1 in 6
million cubic yards of debris.
$54 million
Lucia 1/27/2021 Debris
Flow
An atmospheric river washed out a 150-
foot-long stretch of Hwy 1 near Rat
Creek below the Dolan Fire burn scar.
Flows damaged another 60 locations
along the highway.
Sources: NOAA Storm Events Database; A History of Road Closures Along Highway 1, Big Sur Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties, California
Historic Slope Failure in Other Geographic Regions
Besides the Big Sur coastline other areas of the County are vulnerable to debris flows.
Throughout the 1997–1998 El Niño season, a series of debris slides failed along the northern flank of Saddle Mountain in Carmel Valley and impacted Saddle Mountain Recreation Area. A landslide in Las Lomas in rural north Monterey County caused several homes to be destroyed and resulted in a Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) project that involved buying out the affected homes and preserving the land where the slide occurred as perpetual open space.
The 2017 storms caused flooding and debris flows in Prunedale and Spreckels resulting in mud, and rocks covering various sections of roadway, including Crazy Horse Canyon Road, Live Oak Road, Garin Road, and Elkhorn Road. Highway 101 was blocked at Crazy Horse Canyon Road and Highway 68 was blocked with over 1 foot of mud at River Road. One heavy slide caused COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-7 SLOPE FAILURE
mud, about 3 feet deep, to block Moro Road. In 2019, heavy rainfall caused large rocks to block Carmel Valley Road at Laureles Grade. In 2021 an annual expected storm caused a large debris flow in the River Fire burn scar. The flow damaged 25 homes and caused one injury.
15.2.2 LOCATION
The best available predictor of where slides and earth flows might occur is the location of past movements. Past landslides can be recognized by their distinctive topographic shapes, which can remain in place for thousands of years. Most landslides recognizable in this fashion range from a few acres to several square miles. Most show no evidence of recent movement and are not currently active. A small proportion of them may become active in any given year, with movements concentrated within all or part of the landslide masses or around their edges.
Debris and sediment flows are a particular threat to life and property in mountainous areas of Monterey County. Areas of highest susceptibility to large landslides include Carmel Valley, the Arroyo Seco district, and the foothills of southern Salinas Valley. In this area, rocks have been weakened through faulting, fracturing, and uplift, and are vulnerable to earthquake or rain induced landslides.
Landslides are most common along the steep slopes of the Big Sur coast. Recurrent uplift, in combination with relentless erosion by ocean waves, creates extreme topography, making the area highly susceptible to landslides. Rocks that have been weakened through faulting and fracturing also help provide ideal conditions for large landslides. During the winter months, Big Sur receives both heavy rainfall (as much as 80 inches per year) and high wave energy. In summer and fall, occasional wildfires remove vegetation, making the areas slopes more vulnerable to erosion. All these factors produce chronic landslides, such as those that block, undermine, or damage the Coast Highway.
The potential for debris flows increases significantly in areas recently burned by large wildfires.
Wildfires can greatly reduce the amount of vegetation, which reduces the ability for the ground to absorb rainwater, allowing excessive water runoff that can include large amounts of debris.
An area of current particular concern is the burn scars of the 2020 Dolan, River, and Carmel fires. While post-fire assessment data and detailed mapping on vulnerability to debris flow is not available, structures located anywhere near the burn area should be considered potentially at risk during and following high intensity rainfall events until the vegetation is restored.
The California Geological Survey maps the relative likelihood of deep land sliding based on regional estimates of rock strength and steepness of slopes. On the most basic level, weak rocks and steep slopes are more likely to generate landslides. Their mapping uses detailed information on the location of past landslides, the location and relative strength of rock units, and steepness of slope.
This mapping shows the distribution of landslide hazards and provides an overview of where landslides are more likely. This mapping does not include information on landslide triggering COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-8 SLOPE FAILURE
events, such as rainstorms or earthquake shaking, nor does it address susceptibility to shallow landslides such as debris flows and is not appropriate for evaluation of landslide potential at any specific site.
Mapping of deep-seated landslide susceptibility in Monterey County based on data from the California Geological Survey 65 is shown in Figure 15-1.
Figure 15-1
Deep-Seated Landslide Susceptibility in Monterey County
Figure 15-1: Deep-Seated Landsilde Susceptibility in Monterey County Additionally, areas in the County are susceptible to earthquake induced landslides. Figure 15-2 shows earthquake induced landslide susceptibility in Monterey County.
65 CGS Map Sheet 58: Deep-Seated Landslide Susceptibility, California Geological Survey (May 2011)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-9 SLOPE FAILURE
Figure 15-2: Earthquake Induced Landslide Susceptibility COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-10 SLOPE FAILURE
15.2.3 FREQUENCY
Landslides are often triggered by other natural hazards such as earthquakes, heavy rain, floods, or wildfires, so landslide frequency is often related to the frequency of these other hazards. In Monterey County, landslides typically occur during and after severe storms, so the potential for landslides largely coincides with the potential for sequential severe storms that saturate steep, vulnerable soils. The FEMA National Risk Index estimates that the annualized frequency of landslide events in Monterey County is 0.43 distinct events per year.
In general Monterey County can expect to experience significant landslide events during strong El Niño years, large atmospheric rivers, or during a large earthquake event. In areas recently burned by wildfires, landslides may occur more frequently and are possible during annual rain events.
15.2.4 SEVERITY
Slope failures destroy property and infrastructure and can take the lives of people. When landslides occur — in response to such changes as increased water content, earthquake shaking, addition of load, or removal of downslope support — they deform and tilt the ground surface. The result can be destruction of foundations, offset of roads, breaking of underground pipes, or overriding of downslope property and structures.
Slope failure can pose a serious hazard to properties on or below hillsides. They can block access to roads, which can isolate residents and businesses and delay commercial, public, and private transportation. This can result in economic losses for businesses. Vegetation or poles on slopes can be knocked over, resulting in possible losses to power and communication lines.
Slope failures can also damage rivers or streams, potentially harming water quality, fisheries, and spawning habitat.
In Monterey County, landslides and mudslides are a common occurrence and have caused damage to homes, public facilities, roads, parks, and sewer lines. Landslides along the county’s coastline, in conjunction with wave action, have resulted in road failure, severe erosion, cliff failure, and loss of bluff top area that threatens development. In Big Sur, landslides have caused millions of dollars in damages and have led to closures of Highway 1, which can range from a few days to over a year.
15.2.5 WARNING TIME
The velocity of landslides ranges from a slow creep of inches per year to many feet per second, depending on slope angle, material, and water content. Some types of slope failure, occur slowly but can have significant property or health consequences. The identification of those hazards generally takes site-specific analysis to determine if the site soils and geology are susceptible to these hazards and what mitigation is most relevant and prudent for a site. For these types of hazards, warning time is long.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-11 SLOPE FAILURE
For other hazards, such as debris flows, rockfalls, and landslides, warning time is often very short and may not occur at all. Identifying areas where these events are known have occurred, or which have ideal characteristics for these hazards to occur, could help with hazard preparedness when triggering-type events like intense rainfall occur.
Some methods used to monitor landslides can provide an idea of the type of movement and the amount of time prior to failure. It is also possible to determine what areas are at risk during general time periods. Assessing the geology, vegetation, and amount of predicted precipitation for an area can help in these predictions. However, there is no practical warning system for individual landslides.
When wildfire-induced landslide threats exist a state team of foresters, hydrologists, and GIS specialists from CAL FIRE, engineering geologists from the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Regional Water Quality Control Boards (RWQCB), and civil engineers from the Department of Water Resources (DWR), can be assembled into a Watershed Emergency Response Team (WERT) to assess potential life-safety hazards from post-fire debris flows, hyper-concentrated flows, and flood flows on Local and State Responsibility Areas.
An Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds that identifies imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on federal land. The BAER identifies emergency stabilization measures that can be implemented before the first post-fire damaging events. BAER measures include actions such as: mulching, seeding, installation of erosion and water run-off control structures, temporary barriers to protect recovering areas, and the installation of warning signs.
The USGS also conducts post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires using geospatial data related to basin morphometry, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may occur in response to a storm. This identification and analysis will not reduce the warning time, but it will make proactive response to potential triggering events more effective.
15.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
There are some hazards that can trigger or exacerbate slope failure. Flooding, for example, can undercut the toe of a slope which can remove the support for the slope and cause a landslide.
Wildfires create long-term impacts by altering the soil structure, impeding its ability to absorb moisture, and destroying vegetation that binds the soil with roots and absorbs rainfall and runoff. Post-wildfire, even small rainfall events can cause devastating landslides. Areas that are mapped currently as low to moderate risk of these hazards may have high risk after a wildfire.
Landslides can cause several types of secondary effects, such as blocking access to roads, which can isolate residents and businesses and delay commercial, public, and private transportation.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-12 SLOPE FAILURE
This could result in economic losses for businesses. Other potential problems resulting from landslides are power and communication failures. Vegetation or poles on slopes can be knocked over, resulting in possible losses to power and communication lines. Landslides also have the potential of destabilizing the foundation of structures, which may result in monetary loss for residents. They also can damage rivers or streams, potentially harming water quality, fisheries, and spawning habitat.
15.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
Data developed for the Monterey County 2010 General Plan Update - Relative earthquake- induced landslide susceptibility of Monterey County (Lewis Rosenberg) - was used to assess earthquake induced slope failure risk in Monterey County.
Additionally, data from the FEMA National Risk Index was used to capture a wider swath of slope failure risk.
15.4.1 POPULATION
The FEMA National Risk Index estimates that a population of 79,208 people is exposed to landslide risk in Monterey County. As summarized in Table 15-2, close to 90,000 people are exposed to high or moderate earthquake induced landslide risk in Monterey County.
Table 15-2: Population Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk Table 15-2
Population Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk in Monterey County Supervisorial District High Moderate
District 1 0 0
District 2 10,603 20,284
District 3 3,940 4,109
District 4 307 760
District 5 18,752 28,902
Total 33,602 54,055
Increasing population and the fact that many homes are built on view property atop or below bluffs and on steep slopes subject to failure, increases the number of lives endangered by this hazard. Populations with access and functional needs as well as elderly populations and the young are more vulnerable to the landslide hazards as they may not be able to evacuate quickly enough to avoid the impacts of a landslide.
15.4.2 PROPERTY
The FEMA National Risk Index estimates that $10,420,650,330 of building value in Monterey County is exposed to landslide risk. On average, $16,721 in building value is exposed annually to landslide risk.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-13 SLOPE FAILURE
As summarized in Table 15-3, about 10,000 residential properties, around $9 billion in value, is exposed to high or moderate earthquake-induced landslide risk in Monterey County.
Table 15-3: Residential Property Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk Table 15-3
Residential Property Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk in Monterey County Supervisorial
District
High Moderate
# Value # Value
District 1 0 $0 0 $0
District 2 255 $121,610,859 2,985 $1,462,850,110
District 3 402 $111,813,559 587 $168,618,666
District 4 0 $837,871 129 $61,419,691
District 5 1,889 $2,237,652,534 4,665 $5,235,107,467
Total 2,546 $2,471,914,823 8,366 $6,927,995,934
As summarized in Table 15-4, close to 11,000 non-residential properties, around $3 billion in value, is exposed to high or moderate earthquake-induced landslide risk in Monterey County.
Table 15-4: Non-Residential Property Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk Table 15-4
Non-Residential Property Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk in Monterey County Supervisorial
District
High Moderate
# Value # Value
District 1 0 $0 0 $0
District 2 170 $42,267,723 1,604 $205,569,876
District 3 2,714 $882,625,037 3,298 $1,067,573,258
District 4 7 $0 38 $10,636,707
District 5 1,196 $472,577,390 2,039 $1,025,327,227
Total 4,087 $1,397,470,150 6,979 $2,309,107,068
15.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
A significant amount of linear infrastructure and critical lifelines are exposed to slope failure.
Access to major roads is crucial to life-safety, response, and recovery operations after a disaster event. Slope failure events can block egress and ingress on roads, causing isolation for neighborhoods, traffic problems, and delays for public and private transportation. This can result in economic losses for businesses. Slope failure can significantly impact bridges, by knocking out bridge abutments or significantly weaken the soil supporting them. Highly susceptible areas of the County include mountain and coastal roads and transportation infrastructure.
Power lines are generally elevated above steep slopes, but the towers supporting them can be subject to slope failure. A landslide could trigger failure of the soil underneath a tower, causing it to collapse and rip down the lines. Power and communication failures due to landslides can create problems for vulnerable populations and businesses COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-14 SLOPE FAILURE
Critical infrastructure determined to be exposed to earthquake-induced landslide risk is summarized in Table 15-5.
Table 15-5: Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk Table 15-5
Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Earthquake Induced Landslide Risk in Monterey County Critical Infrastructure Type High Moderate
Facilities
Emergency Response 2 1
Fire Station 2 3
Police Station 0 0
Medical Facilities 0 2
Military Facility 0 0
Large Public Facilities 0 0
Educational Facilities 0 2
Power Plant 0 0
Water & Wastewater Facilities 11 53
Stormwater Facilities 0 0
Government Facilities 6 9
Communication Facilities 142 205
Rain Gauges 2 3
Lighthouses 0 0
Dams 0 0
Hazardous Materials
Active or Idle Oil Well 268 822
Landfill 0 0
Underground Tank 0 2
Cal ARP Facility 0 0
Transportation
Airport 0 0
Bridge 8 9
Harbor 0 0
Highway/Freeway (Miles) 2 26
Driveway (Miles) 0 3
Major Road (Miles) 192 278
Local (Miles) 780 780
Railroad (Miles) 10 10
15.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
Landslides that fall into streams may significantly impact fish and wildlife habitat, as well as affecting water quality. Hillsides that provide wildlife habitat can be lost for prolonged periods of time due to landslides. Disposal of landslide debris into the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS) could damage critical marine habitats.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 15-15 SLOPE FAILURE
15.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
Millions of visitors travel annually along the Highway 1 in Big Sur, bringing many millions of dollars to the local economy. Maintaining safe access along the Highway is essential for both tourism and the livelihood of residents. Landslides in Big Sur frequently damage the popular and economically essential Highway 1 and can close the road for weeks or months at a time.
Maintenance of the highway is expensive and controversial.
15.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
Land use controls (such as prohibiting development on unstable soils or steep slopes) are the most cost-effective way to prevent loss of life and property. The planning partners are equipped to handle future growth within landslide hazard areas. Landslide risk areas are addressed in the safety elements of local general plans. The State of California has adopted the International Building Code (IBC) by reference in its California Building Standards Code. The IBC includes provisions for geotechnical analyses in steep slope areas that have soil types considered susceptible to landslide hazards. These provisions assure that new construction is built to standards that reduce the vulnerability to landslide risk.
15.6 ISSUES
Key issues related to slope failure in Monterey County include:
• There are existing homes in landslide risk areas throughout the County. The degree of vulnerability of these structures depends on the codes and standards the structures were constructed to. Information to this level of detail is not currently available. • The impact of landslides on tourism in Big Sur.
• Future development could lead to more homes in landslide risk areas. • Mapping and assessment of landslide hazards are constantly evolving. As new data and science become available, assessments of landslide risk should be reevaluated. • The impact of climate change on landslides is uncertain. If climate change impacts atmospheric conditions, then exposure to landslide risks is likely to increase. • Landslides may cause negative environmental consequences, including water quality degradation.
• The risk associated with the landslide hazard overlaps the risk associated with other hazards such as earthquake, flood, and wildfire. This provides an opportunity to seek mitigation alternatives with multiple objectives that can reduce risk for multiple hazards.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-1 TSUNAMI
16. TSUNAMI
16.1 OVERVIEW
A tsunami is a wave or series of waves, caused by a displacement of the ocean floor, generated by an earthquake, landslide, volcanic eruption, or even large meteor hitting the ocean. What typically happens is a large, submarine earthquake (magnitude 8 or higher) creates a significant upward movement of the sea floor resulting in a rise or mounding of water at the ocean surface. The mound of water moves away from this center in all directions as a tsunami. These events are also often referred to as tidal waves or seismic sea waves.
A tsunami wave is not a tall breaking wave or a tidal wave, although that term is a common misnomer for a tsunami. A tsunami actually resembles a flood or surge, consisting of several waves or surges. The first tsunami surge is often not the highest and the largest surge may occur hours after the first wave. It is not possible to predict how many surges or how much time will elapse between waves for a particular tsunami. This will become a major issue for public safety officials responding to a tsunami.
Visually, tsunamis differ from typical wind waves as well. A tsunami is virtually undetectable to the eye until it has nearly reached the shore. A tsunami looks more like a storm surge experienced in a large hurricane than it does a wind wave. Similar to a hurricane’s storm surge, a tsunami is capable of bringing in large amounts of water inland very quickly, and can inundate areas that are normally dry, even during highest tides. The surges are extremely strong, and the currents uproot and carry everything within its path. These debris filled surges are deadly and destructive to everything in their path.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-2 TSUNAMI
In deep ocean water, tsunamis may travel as fast as 600 miles per hour. As they approach the shore, waves may increase in size and can cause extensive damage to coastal structures. As a tsunami enters the shoaling waters near a coastline, its speed diminishes, its wavelength decreases, and its height increases greatly. The first wave usually is not the largest. Several larger and more destructive waves often follow the first one. As tsunamis reach the shoreline, they may take the form of a fast-rising tide, a cresting wave, or a bore (a large, turbulent wall- like wave). The bore phenomenon resembles a step-like change in the water level that advances rapidly (from 10 to 60 miles per hour).
The configuration of the coastline, the shape of the ocean floor, and the characteristics of advancing waves play important roles in the destructiveness of the waves. Offshore canyons can focus tsunami wave energy and islands can filter the energy. The orientation of the coastline determines whether the waves strike head-on or are refracted from other parts of the coastline. A wave may be small at one point on a coast and much larger at other points. Bays, sounds, inlets, rivers, streams, offshore canyons, islands, and flood control channels may cause various effects that alter the level of damage. It has been estimated, for example, that a tsunami wave entering a flood control channel could reach a mile or more inland, especially if it enters at high tide.
The first visible indication of an approaching tsunami may be recession of water caused by the trough preceding the advancing, large inbound wave crest. Rapid draw down can create strong currents in harbor inlets and channels that can severely damage coastal structures due to erosive scour around piers and pilings. As the water’s surface drops, piers can be damaged by boats or ships straining at or breaking their mooring lines. The vessels can overturn or sink due to strong currents, collisions with other objects, or impact with the harbor bottom.
Conversely, the first indication of a tsunami may be a rise in water level. The advancing tsunami may initially resemble a strong surge increasing the sea level like the rising tide, but the tsunami surge rises faster and does not stop at the shoreline. Even if the wave height appears to be small, 3 to 6 feet for example, the strength of the accompanying surge can be deadly. Waist- high surges can cause strong currents that float cars, small structures, and other debris. Boats and debris are often carried inland by the surge and left stranded when the water recedes.
At some locations, the advancing turbulent wave front will be the most destructive part of the wave. In other situations, the greatest damage will be caused by the outflow of water back to the sea between crests, sweeping all before it and undermining roads, buildings, bulkheads, and other structures. This outflow action can carry enormous amounts of highly damaging debris with it, resulting in further destruction. Ships and boats, unless moved away from shore, may be dashed against breakwaters, wharves, and other craft, or be washed ashore and left grounded after the withdrawal of the seawater.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-3 TSUNAMI
16.1.1 TSUNAMI TYPES
Tsunamis are typically classified as local or distant. Locally generated tsunamis have minimal warning times, leaving few options except to run to high ground. They may be accompanied by damage resulting from the triggering earthquake due to ground shaking, surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides. Distant tsunamis may travel for hours before striking a coastline, giving a community a chance to implement evacuation plans.
Local Source
Local tsunami sources, like large offshore faults and massive submarine landslides, can put adjacent coastal communities at the greatest risk because the public must respond quickly with little or no official guidance. The time between the earthquake that generates the tsunami and the first wave coming ashore can be as little as 10-20 minutes, certainly not enough time for a full response.
Distant Source
A tsunami caused by an exceptionally large earthquake elsewhere on the Pacific Rim could reach the California coast many hours (4-15) after the earthquake. Scientific equipment from across the globe is able to measure the earthquake, and the amplitude and speed of a resulting tsunami, thus adequate warning and response can be accomplished through proper planning and exercising.
16.2 HAZARD PROFILE
16.2.1 HISTORY
As shown in Table 16-1, ten observed tsunamis generated waves in Monterey County. Almost all of the tsunamis were produced by earthquakes and resulted in wave run-ups of 1 meter or less. In Monterey County, two earthquakes have caused recorded tsunami run-up heights that exceeded 1 meter. The 1960 Chilean Earthquake of estimated magnitude 9.5 (largest ever recorded) caused a 1.1-meter run-up-and killed one person, while the slightly smaller but nearer 1964 Alaska earthquake of magnitude 9.2 caused a 1.4-meter run up and significant boat damage at harbors in the Monterey Bay area.
In 1989, the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake, which was centered inland on the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz Mountains, triggered a small to moderate landslide offshore in Monterey Canyon. This caused a 1-foot tsunami measured at the tide gauge in Monterey. In 2011, a tsunami caused by an earthquake off the coast of Japan created large and rapid changes in water level (up to 6 feet) at Moss Landing, causing large volumes of water to rush in and out of the north and south harbor areas. This ebbing and flowing combined with large sediment transport resulted in shear stresses on dock structures in the harbor, causing approximately $1.5 million in damages to 220 timber dock piles.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-4 TSUNAMI
Table 16-1: Historic Monterey County Tsunami Events
Table 16-1
Historic Monterey County Tsunami Events
Date Origin Cause Location of
Effects
Wave
Run-Up Damage
04/01/1946 Aleutian
Islands
Earthquake
(M8.8)
Monterey,
Pacific Grove 3-5 feet Slight turbulence,
localized flooding
03/09/1957 Aleutian
Islands
Earthquake
(M8.6) Monterey 2 feet No damage
05/22/1960 Chile Earthquake
(M9.5)
Monterey,
Moss Landing,
Pacific Grove
2-4 feet Severe currents, seawall
submerged, no damage
03/28/1964 Alaska Earthquake
(M9.2)
Monterey,
Moss Landing,
Pacific Grove
5-8 feet
Strong currents, boats
damaged, minor
damage to utilities
10/18/1989 Northern
California
Earthquake
(M6.9)
Monterey,
Moss Landing 1-3 feet No damage
02/27/2010 Chile Earthquake
(M8.8) Monterey 1 foot No damage
03/11/2011 Japan Earthquake
(M9.0)
Monterey,
Moss Landing 2-6 feet
$1.5 million in damages
to dock piles in Moss
Landing Harbor
01/15/2022 Tonga Volcano
Monterey,
Moss Landing,
Pacific Grove
2-3 feet TBD
16.2.2 LOCATION
The entire coastal area of Monterey County is susceptible to a tsunami. The Big Sur coast is less susceptible to significant tsunami run-up due to the rugged and steep cliffs of the coastal mountains. However, the coastal low-lying areas and riverine valleys to the north are highly susceptible to tsunamis.
If a large enough earthquake occurs in the Monterey Bay and produces a tsunami it would reach the shore in a matter of minutes. The San Gregorio Fault, which runs more or less parallel to the coastline, is the likeliest point of origin for a near-shore tsunami event. Although not generally considered a fault capable of producing a “mega-earthquake” (>8.0), it is capable of a large enough earthquake that could trigger an offshore landslide in a submarine canyon in the Monterey Bay. If an event such as this were to occur, any potentially resulting tsunami would reach shore in less than 30 minutes, and possibly as little as 10 minutes.
A tsunami caused by an exceptionally large earthquake elsewhere on the Pacific Rim could reach the California coast many hours (4-15) after the earthquake. A thrust-type earthquake COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-5 TSUNAMI
(vertical displacement) is more likely to produce a tsunami than an earthquake from a lateral strike-slip fault, such as the San Andreas. Because of this, subduction zones, where dense oceanic crust burrows underneath less-dense continental crust, are more likely to produce a large tsunami.
Perhaps the most likely source for a significant tsunami exceeding 1 meter in run-up height would be from a rupture along the Cascadia Subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest, which evidence indicates has not had a major rupture since 1700 and could produce an earthquake in the Richter magnitude 9.0 range. The Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska are also capable of producing large offshore earthquakes that may produce large tsunamis.
Since large tsunamis are infrequent and the likelihood that the largest potential tsunamis have not yet occurred in Monterey County, the state tsunami program developed a suite of maximum credible tsunami scenarios as part of their tsunami inundation mapping project for local evacuation planning. The general tsunami wave heights (flow depths) for key locations from these scenarios are provided in Table 16-2, Table 16-3, and Table 16-4. 66 NOTE: The projections do not include any adjustments for ambient conditions, such as storm surge and tidal fluctuations, and model error (it is important to note this difference, as those numbers can increase the projected water height during an event).
Table 16-2: Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results - North County Table 16-2
Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results- North County
Tsunami Source Travel
Time
Location- Near Shore Tsunami Heights
Feet Above Mean Sea Level
Pajaro
River
Moss
Landing
Salinas
River Marina Sand
City
Monterey Canyon Landslide 10-15 min 7 5 8 14 7
M9 Cascadia- Full Rupture 1hr 4 3 4
M9.2 Alaska 1964 EQ 5hr 10 7 7 6 10
M8.9 Central Aleutians I 5hr 7 5 7 6 6
M8.9 Central Aleutians II 5hr 4 3 4
M9.2 Central Aleutians III 5hr 12 10 12 12 12
M8.8 Kuril Islands II 9hr 3 3 3
M8.8 Kuril Islands III 9hr 3 3 4
M8.8 Kuril Islands IV 9hr 4 3 3
M8.8 Japan II 10hr 3 3 4
M.8.6 Marianas Trench 11hr 4 2 3 2 3
M9.5 Chile 1960 EQ 13hr 4 3 4
M9.4 Chile North 13hr 7 3 5
Maximum Runup- Local Source 8 6 9 15 8
Maximum Runup- Distant Source 13 11 12 13 13
66 Monterey County Tsunami Playbook
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-6 TSUNAMI
Table 16-3: Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results - Monterey Table 16-3
Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results- Monterey
Tsunami Source Travel
Time
Location- Near Shore Tsunami Heights
Feet Above Mean Sea Level
Monterey -
Marina
Monterey -
Aquarium
Monterey -
Point Pinos
Monterey Canyon Landslide 10-15 min 7 17 16
M9 Cascadia- Full Rupture 1hr 4 3 3
M9.2 Alaska 1964 EQ 5hr 10 8 7
M8.9 Central Aleutians I 5hr 6 5 4
M8.9 Central Aleutians II 5hr 3 3 3
M9.2 Central Aleutians III 5hr 12 9 7
M8.8 Kuril Islands II 9hr 2 2 2
M8.8 Kuril Islands III 9hr 4 3 3
M8.8 Kuril Islands IV 9hr 3 3 3
M8.8 Japan II 10hr 4 3 3
M.8.6 Marianas Trench 11hr 3 2 2
M9.5 Chile 1960 EQ 13hr 4 3 3
M9.4 Chile North 13hr 5 4 3
Maximum Runup- Local Source 8 18 17
Maximum Runup- Distant Source 13 10 8
Table 16-4: Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results - South County Table 16-4
Tsunami Source Scenario Model Results- South County
Tsunami Source Travel
Time
Location- Near Shore Tsunami Heights
Feet Above Mean Sea Level
Cypress Point Carmel Monastery Beach
Monterey Canyon Landslide 10-15 min 13 4 4
M9 Cascadia- Full Rupture 1hr 3 3 2
M9.2 Alaska 1964 EQ 5hr 7 8 7
M8.9 Central Aleutians I 5hr 5 6 5
M8.9 Central Aleutians II 5hr 3 3 3
M9.2 Central Aleutians III 5hr 9 10 9
M8.8 Kuril Islands II 9hr 2 2 2
M8.8 Kuril Islands III 9hr 3 3 3
M8.8 Kuril Islands IV 9hr 3 3 3
M8.8 Japan II 10hr 3 3 3
M.8.6 Marianas Trench 11hr 2 2 2
M9.5 Chile 1960 EQ 13hr 3 3 3
M9.4 Chile North 13hr 3 3 3
Maximum Runup- Local Source 14 4 4
Maximum Runup- Distant Source 10 12 11
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-7 TSUNAMI
16.2.3 FREQUENCY
The frequency of tsunamis is related to the frequency of the events that cause them, so it is similar to the frequency of seismic activity or landslides. As noted above, Monterey County has experienced 10 notable tsunamis over the past 100 years and has been impacted significantly by one. Although these numbers could be averaged to generate an expected occurrence rate, there have been as few as 1 and as many as 45 years in between events, and an averaged recurrence interval would not be meaningful. For the purposes of this plan, the probability that Monterey County will experience a tsunami has been estimated to be possible, averaging a 1- foot to 11-foot wave run-up for all coastal and low-lying areas within the county.
16.2.4 SEVERITY
Tsunamis are a threat to life and property to anyone living near the ocean, but the impact of a tsunami can vary widely. The tsunami’s size and speed, as well as the coastal area’s form and depth, affect the impact of a tsunami. A small tsunami may result in unusual tides or currents that can be dangerous to swimmers or cause damage to berthed boats. Powerful tsunamis, such as the one that struck Southeast Asia in December 2004, can level structures, and result in significant loss of human life. Tsunami waves can persist for many hours because of complex interactions with the coast. Large tsunamis cause strong rips and currents in oceans around the world for up to a few days after the initiating earthquake.
When they strike land, most tsunamis are less than 10 feet high, but in extreme cases, they can exceed 100 feet near their source. A tsunami may come onshore like a fast-rising flood or a wall of turbulent water, and a large tsunami can flood low-lying coastal areas more than a mile inland. Rushing water from waves, floods, and rivers is incredibly powerful. Just six inches of fast-moving water can knock adults off their feet, and twelve inches can carry away a small car.
Tsunamis can be particularly destructive because of their speed and volume. They are also dangerous as they return to the sea, carrying debris and people with them. Harbors in particular are vulnerable to damage from strong tsunami currents, potential damage includes:
• Sudden and significant water-level fluctuations can cause boats and docks to hit bottom (grounded) as water levels drop, and docks to overtop piles as water levels rise • Strong and unpredictable currents can occur, especially where there are narrow passages, channels, or harbor openings, or other natural or man-made structures that form constrictions
• Tsunami-induced bores, seiches, and amplified waves can cause swamping of boats and damage to docks
• Eddies/whirlpools can cause boats to break their moorings and float uncontrolled • Drag on deep draught boats can cause damaging forces to the docks they are moored to • Free floating boats, docks, and/or debris in the water can damage structures and infrastructures in the harbor
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-8 TSUNAMI
• Dangerous tsunami conditions which may potentially last tens of hours after first wave arrival, can cause problems for inexperienced and unprepared boaters who may try to move their boats within harbors, take their boats offshore, or reenter the harbor during a tsunami
• Sediment movement from both erosion and deposition can create hazards to navigation • Environmental issues with debris and contaminants in the water can slow/delay recovery efforts for long periods of time
Overall, the County could see moderate impacts from a tsunami originating in the Pacific Ocean. This could have severe impacts, and the resulting floodwater waves can carry damaging debris and inundate homes, businesses, and government buildings. Figure 16-1 shows the tsunami inundation zones in Monterey County, which demonstrates the extent of potential impacts from a tsunami.
Figure 16-1
Tsunami Hazard Areas in Monterey County
Figure 16-1: Tsunami Hazard Areas in Monterey County
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-9 TSUNAMI
16.2.5 WARNING TIME
There are two ways to identify if a tsunami may be coming: natural warning and official warning. Strong ground shaking, a loud ocean roar, or the water receding unusually far exposing the sea floor are all nature’s warnings that a tsunami may be coming. If any of these warning signs are observed, the public should immediately go to higher ground. A tsunami may arrive within minutes and may last for eight hours or longer. The public should be instructed to stay away from coastal areas until officials announce that it is safe to return.
Official warnings are issues by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC), which provides information about the tsunami in “bulletins” to the state and local jurisdictions. These bulletins include information about the tsunami source, typically an earthquake (location, depth, magnitude), and forecasts about the impending tsunami itself (alert level, first arrival, maximum amplitudes, or wave height). The National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) in Palmer, AK, is the primary warning center for the California coastline and issues four types of tsunami statements, these four levels of “alert” are (from least to greatest significance):
• Tsunami Information Statement: Issued to inform and update emergency managers and the public that an earthquake has occurred, or that a tsunami Watch, Advisory or Warning has been issued elsewhere in the ocean.
• Tsunami Watch: Issued to alert emergency managers and the public of an event which may later impact the Watch area. May be upgraded to an Advisory or Warning - or canceled - based on updated information and analysis.
• Tsunami Advisory: Issued due to the threat of a tsunami which may produce strong currents or waves dangerous to those in or near the water; typically called when forecasted tsunami amplitudes between 0.3m and 1m (1ft and 3ft) above existing tidal conditions are expected. Coastal communities are advised that beach and harbor areas could expect rapid, moderate tidal changes and strong currents. • Tsunami Warning: Issued when a tsunami with significant widespread inundation is imminent or expected; typically called when forecasted tsunami amplitudes are equal to or greater than 1m (3ft). Coastal communities are advised to evacuate people from low- lying areas identified as vulnerable to tsunamis.
It is important to note that Tsunami Advisories and Warnings are situations where coastal emergency managers and harbor masters are recommended to take action to protect lives and property, including limiting access to beaches or waterfront areas to full evacuation of the local official evacuation zone identified in their emergency response plans. While the potential for disaster exists with a Tsunami Watch, the situation is truly unknown at the time a watch is issued. The public is only asked to monitor the situation in case an advisory or warning may be issued at a later time.
The following actions and impacts are recommended based on the type of tsunami alert that is issued:
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-10 TSUNAMI
This official alert system is not considered to be effective for communities close to the tsunami source, because the first wave would arrive before the data can be processed and analyzed, and communications systems may be impacted by the precipitating event. In this case, strong ground shaking would provide the first warning of a potential tsunami and evacuations should begin immediately.
16.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
A tsunami is always a secondary hazard because it requires an earthquake or landslide to displace a vast volume of water. Secondary hazards can trigger tertiary hazards, for example in 2011 Japan experienced a triple disaster, a subduction zone earthquake with a magnitude of
9.0 that triggered the devastating tsunami which in turn caused a cooling system failure at the Fukushima Nuclear plant.
Additionally, evacuation routes could be blocked as a result of the source of the tsunami such as landslides, power lines, or other debris. People could be trapped in damaged buildings along the waterfront and not be able to evacuate before a tsunami arrives.
16.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
16.4.1 POPULATION
In Monterey County, as seen, in Table 16-5, close to 8,000 people are exposed to tsunami inundation areas.
Table 16-5: Population in Tsunami Inundation Zone
Table 16-5
Population in Tsunami Inundation Zone
Supervisorial District Population
District 1 0
District 2 3,725
District 3 0
District 4 122
District 5 3,740
Total 7,587
Warning Inundating wave possible Full evacuation suggested Advisory Strong currents likely Stay away from the shore Watch Danger levels not yet
known
Stay alert for more
information
Information Minor waves at most No action suggested
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-11 TSUNAMI
16.4.2 PROPERTY
As seen in Table 16-6, in Monterey County, about 850 residential properties, close to $2 billion in residential property value, is located in tsunami inundation areas.
Table 16-6: Residential Property in Tsunami Inundation Zone Table 16-6
Residential Property in Tsunami Inundation Zone
Supervisorial District Number of Properties Property Value District 1 0 $0
District 2 232 $151,714,929
District 3 0 $0
District 4 3 $735,480
District 5 610 $1,784,859,471
Total 845 1,937,309,880
Summarized in Table 16-7, about 3,500 non-residential properties, close to $1.5 billion in value is located in tsunami inundation areas.
Table 16-7: Non-Residential Property in Tsunami Inundation Zone Table 16-7
Non-Residential Property in Tsunami Inundation Zone
Supervisorial District Number of Properties Property Value District 1 0 $0
District 2 1,661 $255,042,798
District 3 0 $0
District 4 183 $219,994,034
District 5 1,718 $1,050,596,597
Total 3,562 $1,525,633,429
16.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Roads are the primary resource for evacuation to higher ground before and during a tsunami event. Roads also can serve as flood control facilities for low depth, low velocity floods by acting as levees or berms and diverting or containing flood flows. The major road in the County that intersect tsunami inundation areas is Highway 1. This is a major road that may be impacted by a tsunami, based on exposure; it is NOT an evacuation route for tsunami events. Evacuation routes are identified in emergency response plans in effect within the County. Bridges exposed to tsunami events can be extremely vulnerable to forces transmitted by wave run-up and by debris carried by the wave action. Additionally, a tsunami would impact and damage the infrastructure and equipment in the Monterey and Moss Landing Harbors.
Water and sewer systems can be affected by the flooding associated with tsunami events.
Floodwaters can back up drainage systems, causing localized flooding. Culverts can be blocked by debris from flood events, also causing localized urban flooding. Floodwaters can get into COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-12 TSUNAMI
drinking water supplies, causing contamination. Sewer systems can be backed up, causing waste to spill into homes, neighborhoods, rivers, and streams. Tsunami waves can knock down power lines and radio/cellular communication towers. Power generation facilities can be severely impacted by wave action and by inundation from floodwater.
Table 16-8 summarizes critical infrastructure in the mapped tsunami inundation zone in Monterey County.
Table 16-8: Critical Infrastructure in Tsunami Inundation Zone in Monterey County Table 16-8
Critical Infrastructure in Tsunami Inundation Zone in Monterey County Critical Infrastructure Type Tsunami Inundation Zone
Facilities
Emergency Response 0
Fire Station 0
Police Station 0
Medical Facilities 0
Military Facility 0
Large Public Facilities 0
Educational Facilities 2
Power Plant 0
Water & Wastewater Facilities 10
Stormwater Facilities 1
Government Facilities 0
Communication Facilities 7
Rain Gauges 2
Lighthouses 0
Dams 0
Hazardous Materials
Active or Idle Oil Well 3
Landfill 0
Underground Tank 0
Cal ARP Facility 0
Transportation
Airport 0
Bridge 7
Harbor 2
Highway/Freeway (Miles) 0
Driveway (Miles) 0
Major Road (Miles) 9
Local (Miles) 10
Railroad (Miles) 4
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 16-13 TSUNAMI
16.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
Inundation of water by tsunami and introduction of foreign debris could be hazardous to the environment. All wildlife inhabiting the inundation area is exposed. The vulnerability of aquatic habit and associated ecosystems would be highest in low-lying areas of the Monterey Bay coastline and the protected wetland habitats in the Elkhorn and Moro Cojo Slough. Tsunami waves can carry destructive debris and pollutants that can devastate the environment. Millions of dollars spent on habitat restoration and conservation in Monterey County could be wiped out by one significant tsunami. There are currently no tools available to measure these impacts.
However, the potential financial impact of a tsunami event on the environment could equal or exceed the impact on property. Community planners and emergency managers should take this into account when preparing for the tsunami hazard and considering future development.
16.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
A tsunami along the coast of Monterey could have an impact on the tourism industry, which is the second largest industry in the County. A tsunami could also impact coastal dependent industries such as harbors, marine sciences, and commercial fishing, as well as effect agricultural operations near the coast.
16.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
Future development is possible in tsunami inundation zones, but it is likely to be limited due to already regulated flood risk in the areas at risk to tsunami inundation.
16.6 ISSUES
Important issues associated with a tsunami in the County include the following:
• As tsunami warning technologies evolve, the tsunami warning capability within Monterey County will need to be enhanced to provide the highest degree of warning. • With the possibility of climate change, the issue of sea level rise may become an important consideration as tsunami inundation areas are identified through future studies.
• Lack of understanding of inundation areas has resulted in over self-evacuation; in past incidents people have self-evacuated to the City of Salinas. Further public information and socialization of tsunami risks may be required.
• Special attention will need to be focused on the vulnerable communities in the tsunami zone and on hazard mitigation through public education and outreach.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-1 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
17. UTILITY INTERRUPTION
17.1 OVERVIEW
Utility interruptions are electrical, natural gas, sewage, telecommunication, or water failures or interruptions that affect people.
Power Failure
A power failure is any interruption or loss of electrical service due to disruption of power generation or transmission caused by an accident, sabotage, natural hazards, equipment failure, or fuel shortage. These interruptions can last anywhere from a few seconds to several days. Power failures are considered significant only if the local emergency management organization is required to coordinate basic services such as the provision of food, water, and heating as a result. Power failures are common with severe weather and winter storm activity.
Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) is responsible for operating and maintaining the electrical transmission and distribution system in the County.
The scope and scale of electrical power disruption impacts will vary based on how widespread the disruption is, when and where it occurs, its duration, its cause, the characteristics of the affected population and region, and other concurrent emergencies. While the electric power industry does not have a universal agreement for classifying disruptions, it is important to recognize that different types of outages are possible, so that plans may be made to handle them effectively. Electric power disruptions can generally be grouped into two categories:
• Intentional Electrical Disruptions: Some disruptions are purposefully done to upgrade, fix, or protect electrical power systems and/or the surrounding area. Intentional power
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-2 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
disruptions can be scheduled or done without notice and can last several minutes to several days; when possible, the electrical service provider will give the Operational Area and its customers advance notice of the disruption. • Unintentional Electrical Disruptions: Unintentional disruptions are not done purposefully, range in duration and often occur without notice. These types of disruptions include:
o Accidents by the utility provider, contractor, or others o Malfunctions or equipment failures, due, for example, to age, improper operation, excessive operation, or manufacturing defect o Overloads on either the utility's equipment or a customer's equipment o Equipment that cannot operate within its design criteria (known as reduced capability)
o Tree contact
o Vandalism or intentional damage
o Disasters, such as extreme weather/winds, earthquakes, floods, and wildfires Load Shedding: Load Shedding occurs when the power system is under extreme stress, due to heavy demand and/or failure of critical components, the electrical service provider may interrupt or cut service (or load) to select customers to prevent the entire system from collapsing. This can be done with or without warning.
Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS): The State's investor-owned electric utilities, including Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), may shut off electric power, referred to as "de- energization" or Public Safety Power Shut-offs (PSPS), to protect public safety under California law, specifically California Public Utilities Code (PU Code) Sections 451 and 399.2(a). This is done to reduce the chance of fire ignition in high fire threat areas. PG&E has stated they may de-energize, or shutoff power, to electrical grids or blocks of areas in advance of or during periods of heightened risk of wildland fires. In these instances, power will remain out for as long as extreme and dangerous conditions pose a potential fire risk and until PG&E can inspect and repair power lines and equipment. Once the electrical service provider deems it is safe to do so, power will be systematically restored.
Water or Wastewater Disruption
Water or wastewater disruption is a secondary impact from a natural disaster or intentional act.
A breach in the pipelines that carry water through the County would have significant temporary impacts until alternative water sources are pumped and treated. Long-term disruption would have significant impacts on residences and businesses in the planning area if demand exceeds secondary supplies and water conservation measures do not provide enough relief to reduce demand to equal the secondary supplies.
Disruption of the County’s wastewater collection and wastewater treatment plants would have significant regional impacts. Such disruption could result if the system were to be overwhelmed by a significant storm or discharge of materials in such quantities that the treatment plant could not adequately treat the waste. Natural hazards such as earthquake or flood, major power COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-3 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
outages, or terrorism directed at the facilities and systems could disrupt the process of collecting and treating millions of gallons of sewage. Wastewater treatment plants may also have emergencies internal to the plant such as oxygen deficiencies that render them incapable of treating waste. The disruption of service may also have significant environmental impacts on the waterways adjacent to the treatment plants.
Data and Telecommunications Interruptions
The loss of data or telecommunications is often a secondary hazard to natural and other human-caused hazards. Data and telecommunications provide a primary method for service to the community by the government and the private sector. A loss of data and telecommunications could result in loss of emergency dispatch capabilities, emergency planning services, infrastructure monitoring capabilities, access to statistical data, and access to financial and personnel records.
Pipeline Interruptions
Pipelines are often considered the safest and most reliable way to transport natural gas, crude oil, liquid petroleum products, and chemical products, but there is still an inherent risk due to the nature of the hazardous materials. Failures of pipelines can occur when pipes corrode, are damaged during excavation, are incorrectly operated, or are damaged by other forces.
Intra-state liquid petroleum pipelines are regulated by the Office of the State Fire Marshal Pipeline Safety Division. Natural gas pipelines are regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission. Pipelines are also monitored by supervisory control and data acquisition systems that measure flow rate, temperature, and pressure. These systems transfer real-time data via satellite from the pipelines to a control center where valves, pumps, and motors are remotely operated. If tampering with the pipeline occurs, an alarm will sound. The ensuing valve reaction is instantaneous, with the system isolating any rupture and setting off a chain reaction that shuts down pipeline pumps and alerts pipeline operators within seconds.
Transmission pipelines and distribution pipelines provide different services. Transmission pipelines transport raw material for further refinement. These pipes are large and far reaching, operating under high pressure. Distribution pipelines provide processed materials to end users.
These are smaller in diameter, some as small as a half an inch, and operate under lower pressure. More serious accidents occur on distribution pipelines than on any other type due to their number, intricate networking, and location in highly populated areas.
17.1.1 SPACE WEATHER
All weather on Earth, from the surface of the planet into space, is influenced by the small changes the sun undergoes during its solar cycle. These variations are referred to as space weather. Sudden bursts of plasma and magnetic field structures from the sun’s atmosphere— called coronal mass ejections—together with sudden bursts of radiation, or solar flares, all cause weather effects on Earth. Extreme space weather can cause damage to critical infrastructure, especially the electric grid. It can produce electromagnetic fields that induce COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-4 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, and even causing wide-spread blackouts. In severe cases, it produces solar energetic particles, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning, intelligence gathering, and weather forecasting.
NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has developed space weather scales ranging from minor to extreme effects as a way to communicate to the general public the current and future space weather conditions and their possible effects on people and systems. Descriptions of three general NOAA classifications of space weather— geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms and radio blackouts—are included in Figure 17-1. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center studies have determined that different types of space weather may occur separately.
The most important impact the sun has on Earth is related to its brightness or irradiance. The sun produces energy in the form of photons of light. The variability of the sun’s output is wavelength dependent:
• Most of the energy from the sun is emitted in the visible wavelengths. The output from the sun in these wavelengths is nearly constant and changes by only 0.1% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle.
• At ultraviolet or UV wavelengths, solar irradiance is more variable, with changes up to 15% over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. This has a significant impact on the absorption of energy by ozone and in the stratosphere.
• At still shorter wavelengths, like extreme ultraviolet, solar irradiance changes by 30 to 300% over a period of minutes. These wavelengths are absorbed in the upper atmosphere, so they have minimal impact on the climate of Earth. • At the other end of the light spectrum, at infrared wavelengths, solar irradiance is very stable and only changes by a percent or less over the solar cycle.
Other types of space weather can impact the atmosphere. Energetic particles penetrating into the atmosphere can change chemical constituents. These changes in minor species such as nitrous oxide can have long lasting consequences in the upper and middle atmosphere; however, it has not been determined if these have a major impact on the Earth’s climate.
Space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, solar flare radio blackouts, solar radio bursts, and cosmic radiation) can impact aviation operations at the Monterey Airport.
Effects include degradation or loss of HF radio transmission and satellite navigation signals; navigation system disruptions; and avionics errors. Airport dispatchers use space weather forecasts for flight planning at high latitudes, especially for polar routes.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-5 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
Figure 17-1
Figure 17-1: NOAA Space Weather Scales
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-6 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
17.2 HAZARD PROFILE
17.2.1 HISTORY
The Monterey County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) was activated for a PSPS in 2019. On October 26-29, 2019, Pacific Gas and Electric Company de-energized areas of incorporated and unincorporated Monterey County resulting in prolonged complete loss of electricity due to a Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS). Those impacted included:
• Customers De-Energized: 10,607 Total Customers
• 279 Medical Baseline Customers
• 79 Critical Facilities, including the Salinas Valley State Prison During 2021, multiple utility interruptions occurred. The January 2021 atmospheric river event caused both telecommunications and power outages in the County. On August 5, 2021, the explosion of multiple transformers in the City of Soledad caused at one point in time, the loss of power to over 3,500 customers. On the same day, a car crash into a power pole caused outages in the City of Greenfield.
On August 15, 2021, over 2,500 customers in the Carmel Valley lost power due to unknown causes. From October 9-10, 2021, Pacific Gas and Electric Company de-energized areas of incorporated and unincorporated Monterey County resulting in prolonged complete loss of electricity due to a Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS). Around 850 customers lost power for some amount of time.
There have also been a number of telecommunications outages that have impacted County residents. In November of 2021, AT&T had a major fiber cut between Salinas and Gonzales,
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-7 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
which affected every AT&T provided service in South County, including the transport from cell sites to AT&T's backbone. AT&T's Big Sur cellular service was also affected since it connects at Greenfield.
17.2.2 LOCATION
Electrical generation, transmission, and distribution system are located throughout the County.
Previous significant Public Safety Power Shutoff events have impacted Unincorporated Monterey County: Aromas, Gabilan Foothills, Carmel Valley, Chualar; and Incorporated Cities of Monterey County: City of Gonzales, City of Soledad, City of Greenfield.
Space Weather
Different types of space weather can affect different technologies in the County. Solar flares can produce strong x-rays that degrade or block high-frequency radio waves used for radio communication during events known as radio blackout storms. Solar energetic particles can penetrate satellite electronics and cause electrical failure. These energetic particles also block radio communications at high latitudes during solar radiation storms. Coronal mass ejections can cause geomagnetic storms on Earth and induce extra currents in the ground that can degrade power grid operations and modify the signal from radio navigation systems (GPS), causing accuracy to be degraded.
17.2.3 FREQUENCY
The frequency of utility failure and power interruption is likely to remain constant, but the length of time a utility is shut down should lessen in the future as more redundancies are built into infrastructure and utilities. In addition, leak detection sensors alert utilities to faults and failures more quickly.
Space Weather
Space weather events occur daily, but do not always affect residents in the County. They are all monitored and reported by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
17.2.4 SEVERITY
The severity of utility failure and power interruptions varies too widely to be able to measure.
Electricity, for example, may be out for a few hours to several weeks, depending on the cause of the event.
Space Weather
The severity of space weather can be far-reaching, as virtually all infrastructure and services depend on the electric power grid. Ground currents induced during geomagnetic storms can melt copper windings of transformers, which are the primary components of power distribution systems. Power lines traversing the County can pick up the currents and spread the problem over the entire area.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-8 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
17.2.5 WARNING TIME
Utility failure and power interruptions occur at any time without warning. However, they usually are a secondary effect from a storm event, landslide, or human-caused issues.
Space Weather
Space weather prediction services in the United States are provided primarily by NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and the US Air Force’s Weather Agency, which work closely together to address the needs of civilian and military user communities. The Space Weather Prediction Center draws on a variety of data sources, both space and ground-based, to provide forecasts, watches, warnings, alerts, and summaries as well as operational space weather products to civilian and commercial users.
17.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
Utility losses can cause a reduction in employment and in wholesale and retail sales, require utility repairs, and increase medical risk. Local government may lose tax revenue, and the finances of private utility companies and the businesses that rely on them can be disrupted.
Space Weather
The most likely secondary impact of space weather on residents, businesses and visitors to the County is disruption of the electric power grid. Space weather can have an impact on advanced technologies, which has a direct impact on daily life.
17.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
17.4.1 POPULATION
All residents and visitors in the County are exposed to utility interruptions. This will continue as people are dependent on basic utility services such as electricity, water, wastewater, natural gas, etc. Utility disruptions can have both a direct impact on society and trigger or worsen disruptions to water, transportation, and other systems, that in turn may cause further societal impacts. Additional emergencies occurring during power disruptions can compound these effects and influence the timeline of restoration. Depending on the circumstances surrounding the incident, utility disruption can impact transportation/fuel, communications, housing, critical infrastructure, first response, and the economy.
Space Weather
Space weather exposure of the County’s population is minimal. The main exposure is of satellite operations, HF radio communications, and the power grid that people use.
17.4.2 PROPERTY
All property throughout the County is exposed to some type of utility infrastructure failure.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-9 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
Space Weather
It is unlikely that the impacts of space weather would have a negative impact on property and structures themselves, but a magnetic or black-out event caused by space weather, would affect public and private infrastructure systems.
17.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND I NFRASTRUCTURE
All critical facilities and infrastructure that are operated by electricity are exposed to utility interruption and a space weather phenomenon. Damage to critical facilities can disrupt health care, fire and police services and impair search and rescue and emergency medical care.
17.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
The environment is usually not exposed to utility interruption unless it is a spill that contaminates water or open land or creates a wildfire that burns acres.
Space Weather
Migratory animals are exposed to geomagnetic storms associated with space weather.
17.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
Utility losses could cause a reduction in employment and wholesale and retail sales, a need for utility repairs, and increased medical risks. Local governments might lose tax revenues, and the finances of private utility companies and the businesses that rely on them would be disrupted.
Utility interruption can also affect agricultural production, which can have a large economic effect on Monterey County.
FEMA has developed standard loss-of-use estimates in conjunction with its benefit-cost analysis methodologies to estimate the cost of lost utilities on a per-person, per-use basis, as summarized in Table 17-1.
Table 17-1: FEMA Standard Values for Loss of Services for Utilities and Roads/Bridges Table 17-1
FEMA Standard Value for Loss of Service for Utilities and Roads/Bridges Interruption Total Economic Impact
Complete Loss of Electric Power $126 per person per day Complete Loss of Potable Water Service $93 per person per day Complete Loss of Wastewater Service $41 per person per day Complete Loss of Road/Bridge Service $38.15 per vehicle per hour of vehicle delay; $0.55 per mile of vehicle delay (current mileage rate)
Source: FEMA BCA Reference Guide, June 2009, Appendix C FEMA Standard Values
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan PAGE | 17-10 UTILITY INTERRUPTION
17.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
The likelihood of utility interruption in the future will continue as development and population growth continue in the County. The majority of utilities in the County are privately owned, and market forces are, as a rule, insufficient to induce needed investments in protection. Private organizational strategies and policies will need to work together to ensure reliable and resilient services for the long term.
17.6 ISSUES
Key issues associated with utility interruptions in Monterey County include:
• Heat-related equipment failures and electrical infrastructure igniting wildfires h as resulted in unintentional and intentional rolling blackouts and power shutoffs throughout the County. Public Safety/ Utility Initiated Power Shut Offs to prevent wildfire ignition can have notably significant impacts due to the length of disruption time , limited efficacy of the strategy, and the effect on first responder capabilities. • The economic impact of utility interruptions on industry, particularly the agricultural industry is a large concern in the County. Loss of power for more than a few hours can result in large economic losses.
• More vulnerable populations in isolated areas or who rely on medical devices are at increased risk during prolonged power outages.
• Extreme and prolonged heatwaves across the state increase the demand for use of the aging electrical grid significantly depleting electricity reserves resulting in blackout s.
Heatwaves are expected to increase in intensity and magnitude due to climate change, which will likely exacerbate this problem.
• Monterey County has limited microgrids and reliance on the macro -grid makes the County vulnerable to rolling and prolonged power outages.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-1 WILDFIRE
18. WILDFIRE
18.1 OVERVIEW
A wildfire is any uncontrolled fire occurring on undeveloped land that requires fire suppression.
Wildfires can be caused by human activities (such as arson or campfires) or by natural events such as lightning. Wildfires are costly, putting lives and property at risk and compromising rivers and watersheds, open space, timber, range, recreational opportunities, wildlife habitats, historic and cultural areas assets, scenic assets, and local economies. Vulnerability to flooding increases due to the destruction of forest and ground cover within watersheds. The potential for significant damage to life and property increases in areas where development is adjacent to dense vegetation, known as wildland urban interface (WUI) areas.
Reported outcomes of wildfire typically include only those that are attributable to the physical fire itself; these outcomes largely occur during the fire event and within or near the wildfire perimeter. However, wildfires can also generate smoke plumes or increase the risk of post- wildfire landscape events such as erosion, debris flows, and flooding.
18.1.1 WILDFIRE PROTECTION RESPONSIBILITY AREAS
Local, state, tribal, and federal organizations all have legal and financial responsibility for wildfire protection. In many instances, two fire organizations have dual primary responsibility on the same parcel of land—one for wildfire protection and the other for structural fire protection. To address wildfire jurisdictional responsibilities, the California State Legislature outlined various wildfire responsibilities, described below, in Cal. Pub. Res.Code§4291.5 and Cal. Health & SafetyCode§13108.5. Figure 18-1 shows the Fire Protection Responsibility areas
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-2 WILDFIRE
(Federal Responsibility Areas, State Responsibility Areas, and Local Responsibility Areas) in Monterey County.
Federal Responsibility Area (FRA)
Federal Responsibility Areas (FRA) are fire-prone wildland areas that are owned or managed by a federal agency. Primary financial and rule-making jurisdictional authority rests with the federal land agency. In many instances, FRAs are interspersed with private land ownership or leases. Fire protection for developed private property is usually not the responsibility of the federal land management agency; structural protection responsibility is that of a local government agency.
The agencies that control federal lands within Monterey County include:
• US Forest Service: Los Padres National Forest
• National Park Service: Pinnacles National Park
• Dept. of Defense: Fort Hunter Liggett, Defense Language Institute, Presidio of Monterey • Bureau of Land Management: Various
• California National Guard: Camp Roberts
State Responsibility Area (SRA)
State Responsibility Areas (SRA) are lands in California where California Department of Forestry and Fire (CAL FIRE) has legal and financial responsibility for wildfire protection and administers fire hazard classifications and building standard regulations. SRAs include forested lands and land that is generally considered wildland. SRAs do not include incorporated cities or federal lands. CAL FIRE is responsible for carrying out the mandate for wildland fire protection within SRAs. The CAL FIRE San Benito-Monterey Unit (BEU) provides wildland fire protection to the 2.1 million acres of SRA land in the County.
The law also allows CAL FIRE to provide fire protection services to local communities under contract. When contracting to provide services, authority is delegated to CAL FIRE by the contracting agency. CAL FIRE will respond to reported fires and may provide EMS and other incident responses as contracted for. SRAs may overlap some or all of a special district’s jurisdiction, as is the case in unincorporated Monterey County.
CAL FIRE BEU has Cooperative Fire Protection Agreements with the Pebble Beach Community Services District, the Cypress Fire Protection District, the Carmel Highlands Fire Protection District, the Aromas Tri-County Fire Protection District, the South Monterey County Fire Protection District, and the Soledad Fire Department. They have Dispatch Agreements with the Cachagua Fire Protection District and the Mid Coast Volunteer Fire Brigade.
Local Responsibility Area (LRA)
Local Responsibility Areas (LRAs) include land in cities, cultivated agriculture lands, nonflammable areas in unincorporated areas, and lands that do not meet the criteria for SRA or FRA. LRA fire protection is typically provided by city fire departments, fire protection districts, COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-3 WILDFIRE
and counties, or by CAL FIRE under contract to local governments. LRAs may include flammable vegetation and wildland urban interface areas where the financial and jurisdictional responsibility for improvement and wildfire protection is that of a local government agency.
Figure 18-1
Fire Protection Responsibility Areas in Monterey County
Figure 18-1: Fire Protection Responsibility Areas in Monterey County
18.1.2 FIRE PROTECTION DISTIRCTS AND AGENCIES
The special districts providing fire protection services cover about 1,497 square miles, almost half of the 3,281 square miles of land area in Monterey County.
Table 18-1 summarizes the Fire Protection Districts and service areas of the Fire Protection Districts are mapped in Figure 18-2.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-4 WILDFIRE
Table 18-1: Fire Protection Districts in Monterey County Table 18-1
Fire Protection Districts in Monterey County
Fire Protection District
Estimated
Area (Square
Miles)
Estimated
Population
Responding
Agency
ISO Public
Protection
Classification
Aromas Tri-County Fire
Protection District 17.3 5,800 CAL FIRE BEU 4 / 4X
Big Sur Volunteer Fire
Brigade 254.0 4,350 Big Sur Fire 8 / 10
Cachagua Fire Protection
District 108.0 1,000 Cachagua
Fire 9 / 10
Carmel Highlands Fire
Protection District 9.3 1,075 CAL FIRE BEU 2 / 9
Cypress Fire Protection
District 11.4 7,600 CAL FIRE BEU 2 / 9
Gonzales Rural Fire
Protection District 58.4 650 Gonzales Fire 3 / 3X (5 in City) Greenfield Fire Protection
District 43.2 700 Greenfield
Fire 5 / 10
Mid-Coast Volunteer Fire
Brigade 41.0 270 Mid-Coast
Fire 5 / 7B
Mission Soledad Rural Fire
Protection District 59.6 1,150 CAL FIRE BEU 3 / 10 (4 in City) Monterey County Regional
Fire Protection District 399.6 38,350 Regional Fire 3 / 10 North County Fire
Protection District 122.9 42,000 North
County Fire 4 /10
Pebble Beach Community
Services District 8.3 4,100 CAL FIRE BEU 1
South Monterey County
Fire Protection District 637.2 4,600 CAL FIRE BEU 8 / 10
Aromas Tri-County Fire Protection District
The Aromas Tri-County Fire Protection District provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 5,800 people throughout forty square miles in the northeast corner of Monterey County and adjacent areas of San Benito and Santa Cruz Counties. Monterey County is the district’s principal county because it has the highest assessed value among the three counties within the district’s boundaries. The district provides services through a contract with CAL FIRE.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-5 WILDFIRE
Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade
The Big Sur Volunteer Fire Brigade provides services to the rural community of Big Sur. The Brigade is a 501(c)3 nonprofit and is not a public agency. The Brigade provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 4,350 people over an area of 254 square miles along the southern half of Monterey County coastline and to the inland to areas within the Los Padres National Forest. The Brigade is staffed by volunteers.
Cachagua Fire Protection District
The Cachagua Fire Protection District provides fire suppression and emergency medical services to the rural and mountainous areas at the eastern end of Carmel Valley, known as the Cachagua area. The district comprises approximately 108 square miles of territory and serves over 1,000 residents. The Fire Protection District is staffed by volunteers.
Carmel Highlands Fire Protection District
The Carmel Highlands Fire Protection District provides services through a contract with CAL FIRE. The district provides a high level of fire protection and emergency paramedic medical services to approximately 1,075 people throughout 9 square miles in the coastal area south of Carmel-by-the-Sea. The district works closely with two adjacent districts - the Cypress Fire Protection District and the Pebble Beach Community Services District - that are both also serviced by CAL FIRE. These three special districts operate what is essentially a seamless regional fire department. The residents of these three special districts benefit from a sharing of stations, apparatus, and staffing. The arrangement has been formed through cost sharing agreements, without the formality or bureaucracy of consolidation.
Cypress Fire Protection District
The Cypress Fire Protection District provides services through a contract with CAL FIRE. The district provides a high level of fire protection and emergency paramedic medical services to approximately 7,600 people throughout 11 square miles within the mouth of the Carmel Valley, and unincorporated portions of Carmel and Monterey. As mentioned above, the district works closely with the Carmel Highlands FPD and the Pebble Beach Community Services District, which are also staffed through CAL FIRE.
Gonzales Rural Fire Protection District
The Gonzales Rural Fire Protection District provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 650 people throughout 58 square miles in the rural area surrounding the City of Gonzales. The small size of the district does not allow it to economically maintain independent fire protection service, so the district has contracted with the City of Gonzales to provide fire protection and emergency medical services within District boundaries.
Greenfield Fire Protection District
The Greenfield Fire Protection District provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 700 people throughout 43 square miles in the rural area surrounding the City COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-6 WILDFIRE
of Greenfield. The district contracts with the City of Greenfield to receive fire protection and emergency medical services from the City Fire Department.
Mid-Coast Volunteer Fire Brigade
The Mid-Coast Volunteer Fire Brigade provides services to the rural communities of Garrapata, Palo Colorado, Rocky Creek, Bixby, and the coast from Garrapata State Park south to “South Forty” on Hurricane Point. The Brigade is a 501(c)3 nonprofit and is not a public agency. The Brigade provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 270 people over an area of 41 square miles along the middle of Monterey County’s coastline and to the inland rural areas. The Brigade is staffed by volunteers.
Mission Soledad Rural Fire Protection District
The Mission Soledad Rural Fire Protection District provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 1,150 people throughout 60 square miles in the rural area surrounding the City of Soledad. The district has provided services through a contract with the City of Soledad. The City of Soledad, in turn, contracts with CAL FIRE to provide services to the City and District.
Monterey County Regional Fire District
Monterey County Regional Fire District provides services from rural areas north of the City of Salinas south to the Federal Ventana Wilderness and the outskirts of the City of Gonzales, from the Cities of Marina, Seaside, and Monterey on the west to the San Benito County line in the east. The district provides a high level of fire protection and emergency paramedic medical services to approximately 38,350 people throughout its 400-square mile district. The district also provides ambulance service to Carmel Valley residents.
North County Fire Protection District of Monterey County North County Fire Protection District of Monterey County provides services to rural communities in northern Monterey County. The district provides fire protection and emergency medical services to approximately 42,000 people throughout 123 square miles.
Pebble Beach Community Services District
The Pebble Beach Community Services District provides a high level of fire protection and emergency paramedic medical services to approximately 4,100 people throughout 8 square miles to the north of the City of Carmel and to the west of Cities of Monterey and Pacific Grove.
The district provides services through a contract with CAL FIRE. As noted previously, the district works closely with the Carmel Highlands and Cypress Fire Protection Districts, which are also staffed through CAL FIRE.
South Monterey County Fire Protection District
The South Monterey County Fire Protection District provides fire protection and emergency medical services to a large unincorporated portion of the southern Salinas Valley, including Arroyo Seco, the San Antonio Valley, and the unincorporated area around King City. The district provides services to approximately 4,600 people throughout its 637-square mile district. South COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-7 WILDFIRE
Monterey County FPD serves the largest geographic area of any of the County’s fire protection districts. The district provides services through a contract with CAL FIRE.
Figure 18-2
Fire Protection Districts in Monterey County
Figure 18-2: Fire Protection Districts in Monterey County
18.1.3 THE FIRE EQUATION
The following three factors contribute significantly to wildland fire behavior and can be used to identify wildland fire hazard areas.
• Topography: As slope increases, the rate of fire spread increases. South-facing slopes are subject to more solar radiation, making them drier, which intensifies fire behavior. • Fuel: The type and condition of vegetation plays a significant role in the occurrence and spread of wildland fires. Certain types of plants are more susceptible to burning or will burn with greater intensity. Dense or overgrown vegetation increases the amount of combustible material available to fuel the fire. The ratio of living to dead plant matter and the fuel’s continuity, both horizontally and vertically are also important factors. The
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-8 WILDFIRE
risk of fire is increased significantly during periods of prolonged drought as the moisture content of both living and dead plant matter decreases. • Weather: The most variable factor affecting fire behavior is weather. Temperature, humidity, wind, and lightning can affect ignition and spread. High temperatures and low humidity can lead to extreme wildfire activity. By contrast, cooling and higher humidity often signal reduced wildfire occurrence and easier containment.
Vegetation Management and Fuel Reduction
Since fuel reduction is the one element of
the fire equation that can be impacted,
vegetation management and clearance
around structures is key to reducing risk. A
number of agencies in the County are
involved in various fuel reduction activities. A
variety of strategies and projects have been
deployed in an effort to reduce the threat of
wildfires.
CAL FIRE BEU administers a Vegetation
Management Program. The purpose of the
program is to reintroduce fire to the
landscape, restoring aspects of historic fire
regimes, and to reduce flammable
vegetation that may contribute to large,
damaging wildfires and high fire suppression
costs. The Vegetation Management Program
is a cost-sharing program that focuses on the
use of prescribed fire and mechanical means
for addressing wildland fire fuel hazards and
other resource management issues on State
Responsibility Area (SRA) lands. The program
allows private landowners to enter into a
contract with CAL FIRE to use prescribed fire
to accomplish a combination of fire
protection and resource management goals.
CAL FIRE also manages some significant
shaded fuel break projects at strategic, high-
risk locations.
Local fire agencies conduct property
inspections for defensible space, implement
community projects, and share public
Mitigation Success Story
Monterey Fire Defensible Space Inspection
In order to mitigate the threat of wildfires, the
City of Monterey Fire Department conducts
annual Defensible Space Inspections of all
residential parcels in its response area, which
includes the cities of Monterey, Pacific Grove,
Carmel-by-the-Sea, and Sand City, as well as
the Monterey Regional Airport. Tracking the
inspection status of each parcel was a
challenge.
In 2020, Monterey Fire collaborated with the
City to develop a collector app using GIS
technology. The app allows fire crews to
conduct inspections and record if a parcel is
compliant with defensible space requirements.
The results of the inspection are immediately
visible online in a public facing portal. As
follow-up inspections are completed, the
information can be quickly updated. Staff can
immediately see which parcels need follow-up
and the completion rate. A project that used
to take several months and often resulted in
some missed parcels, can now be completed in
a few weeks with a higher success rate.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-9 WILDFIRE
information on wildfire risk. Monterey County Public Works conducts roadside clearance operations with priority given to roadways considered to be primary evacuation routes.
Other agencies and organizations also take a role in vegetation management and fuel reduction. The Fire Safe Council of Monterey County is a non-profit organization committed to protecting lives and property from harm by wildfires, and to educating the public on wildfire dangers and how to reduce them. The Council coordinates projects and is a conduit for fuel reduction grants. They also coordinated the publication of the Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan.
The Resource Conservation District of Monterey County (RCDMC) administers a Fire and Fuels Mitigation Program. Through the program the RCDMC has assisted with grant funding and coordination for fuels projects, fire infrastructure and natural resources mapping, prescribed burning, and wildfire prevention outreach in Monterey County. The program also has been instrumental in assisting other local groups with work that includes promoting prescribed burning, mapping, and defensible space. Key projects include:
• Los Padres Strategic Community Fuel Break Collaborative Project • Prescribed burn association for Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties
18.1.4 DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS AND WILDFIRE HAZARD
It is important to differentiate wildland fires from fires that occur in the wildland urban interface (WUI). The WUI refers to the area where houses intermingle with undeveloped wildland vegetation. The potential for significant damage to life and property exists in the WUI where development is adjacent to vegetated areas. The impacts and strategies for prevention and mitigation differ significantly between wildland fires and fires in the WUI. For example, fuel loads for wildland fires consist primarily of vegetation, whereas WUI fires have fuel loads consisting of vegetation and houses.
WUI fires have become a defining challenge for California as development continues to expand into less densely populated regions, putting more homes and people at risk. CAL FIRE classifies development into two WUI classes, interface and intermix, each presenting unique fire protection problems and opportunities for risk mitigation. • Interface: Interface represents dense urban development adjacent to wildland. The definable boundary between houses and wildland provides a line of defense and focuses mitigation efforts along this boundary.
• Intermix: Intermix represents sparse development interspersed within a landscape that maintains much of the wildland characteristics. Intermix areas often require fire agencies to devote resources to protect individual houses. Mitigation includes prevention efforts, fire resistant building materials, and defensible space.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-10 WILDFIRE
18.2 HAZARD PROFILE
18.2.1 HISTORY
Fire history is an important component in understanding fire frequency, fire type, significant ignition sources, and vulnerable areas. The history of wildfires in the County is significant. Since 1911, there has been an average of 4 wildfires a year, with an average of 17,000 acres burning annually. Historic wildfires from 1911 to 2020 in Monterey County are mapped in Figure 18-3.
Figure 18-3
Historical Wildfires in Monterey County (1911-2020)
Figure 18-3: Historical Wildfires in Monterey County (1911-2020) The Marble-Cone Fire in August 1977 burned almost 178,000 acres of land, making it the largest wildfire in recorded California history at that time. Since the Marble-Cone Fire, Monterey County has had over 50 large wildfires, listed in Table 18-2.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-11 WILDFIRE
Table 18-2: Large Historical Wildfires in Monterey County (1977-2020) Table 18-2
Large (Over 900 Acre) Historical Wildfires in Monterey County (1977-2020) Year Fire Name Acres
Burned Cause Year Fire Name Acres
Burned Cause
2020 Carmel 6,905 Lightning 1996 Wild 25,620 Arson
2020 River 48,088 Vehicle 1994 Pinnacles 939 Unknown
2020 Dolan 124,924 Arson 1994 Basham 1,098 Unknown
2019 Lonoak 2,546 Powerline 1993 Metz 1,359 Unknown
2018 Turkey 2,225 Miscellaneous 1993 Rancho 5,415 Unknown 2017 Garza 48,887 Vehicle 1992 Unnamed 3,738 Miscellaneous 2017 Park 1,649 Equipment Use 1992 Seco 2,559 Miscellaneous 2017 Parkfield 1,816 Powerline 1992 Jolon 1,625 Arson
2016 Chimney 46,235 Vehicle 1989 Molera #2 2,745 Unknown 2016 Metz 3,876 Debris 1986 Bryant Canyon 2,428 Unknown 2016 Soberanes 132,127 Campfire 1986 Deer Valley
Ranch 1,073 Unknown
2016 Coleman 2,520 Debris 1986 Lowes 2,852 Unknown
2015 Tassajara 1,100 Arson 1986 River 5,469 Debris
2013 Pfeiffer 917 Powerline 1986 Bottcher 2,285 Campfire 2012 Turkey 2,700 Equipment Use 1985 Gorda-Rat 65,700 Lightning 2009 Bryson 2,257 Structure 1985 Wizard 5,215 Miscellaneous 2009 Gloria 6,436 Miscellaneous 1985 Unnamed 14,370 Unknown 2008 Chalk 11,200 Miscellaneous 1985 Seco 1,800 Arson
2008 Indians 81,378 Campfire 1985 Cherry 40,642 Arson
2008 Basin
Complex 162,818 Lightning 1985 Garlinger 1,078 Miscellaneous 2007 Tar 5,670 Unknown 1985 Piney Creek 1,563 Equipment Use 2006 Rico 14,507 Lightning 1981 Gonzales 4,850 Miscellaneous 2005 Johnson
Fire 1,393 Equipment Use 1980 Shirttail 2,045 Unknown
2000 Plaskett 2 5,856 Miscellaneous 1979 Nacimiento 5,371 Arson 2000 North
Fork 1,736 Equipment Use 1979 Freeman Flat 3,207 Unknown 2000 Unnamed 2,073 Non-Firefighter
Training 1979 Kaupp 1,609 Unknown
1999 Kirk 86,700 Lightning 1978 Turkey Flat 1,330 Unknown 1998 Unnamed 8,702 Non-Firefighter
Training 1978 Yost 1,619 Unknown
1996 Sur 4,410 Miscellaneous 1977 Marble-Cone 173,333 Lightning
In more recent years the frequency, intensity, and impact of large wildland fires in Monterey County have increased, specifically in the Los Padres National Forest. The Basin Complex Fire, a COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-12 WILDFIRE
massive wildfire near Big Sur in 2008, burned more than 162,000 acres, destroyed 58 structures, and damaged an additional 9 structures. This fire burned the majority of the Ventana Wilderness. State and federal officials spent more than $120 million to fight the fire, making it is the most expensive fire in California history up to that time, and the second most expensive in US history. The Indians Fire during this same event period burned an additional 81,000 acres, leaving 15 structures destroyed and one damaged. These combined events made 2008 the most destructive year in recorded history for fires in Monterey County.
In December 2013, the Pfeiffer Fire burned 917 acres near Big Sur and damaged or destroyed 38 structures, including 34 residential structures and 4 outbuildings. On July 22, 2016, the Soberanes Fire began as an illegal campfire located in Garrapata State Park in Monterey County. Fed by winds and dry, unmanaged vegetation resulting from several years of extreme drought, the fire quickly spread beyond the park to threaten lives, homes, property, and the environment. It was the costliest firefight in US history, costing a total of $260 million. 2020, was another record year for fires in Monterey County, with the River, Carmel, and Dolan burning 48,000, 6,905, and 124,924 acres, respectively. Shown in Figure 18-4, the most commonly known causes of fires in Monterey County since the year 2000, are powerlines (19%), other mechanical or electrical equipment (16%), vehicles (13%), miscellaneous (12%), and arson (7%). Sometimes the cause of a fire cannot be determined, and this represents another large category, with 11% of fires in the County having an unknown cause.
Figure 18-4
Causes of Wildfires in Monterey County (2000-2020)
Figure 18-4: Causes of Wildfires in Monterey County (2000-2020) Arson
7% Campfire
2%
Debris
6%
Equipment Use
16%
Non-Firefighter
Training
3%
Miscellaneous
12%Powerline
19%
Lightning
5%
Playing with
Fire
3%
Unknown
11%
Escaped
Perscribed
Burn
3%
Vehicle
13%
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-13 WILDFIRE
18.2.2 LOCATION
Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ) are areas mapped by CAL FIRE that designate zones (based on factors such as fuel, slope, and fire weather) with varying degrees of fire hazard (i.e., moderate, high, and very high). While FHSZ do not predict when or where a wildfire will occur, they do identify areas where wildfire hazards could be more severe and therefore are of greater concern. The FHSZ model inputs frequency of fire weather, ignition patterns, expected rate-of spread, and past fire history. It also accounts for flying ember production based on the area of influence where embers are likely to land and cause ignitions.
Fire Hazard Severity Zones in Monterey County are mapped in Figure 18-5 Figure 18-5
Fire Hazard Severity Zones in Monterey County
Figure 18-5: Fire Hazard Severity Zones in Monterey County
CAL FIRE also maps fire threat, which combines expected fire frequency with potential fire behavior. About 80% of land in Monterey County is categorized as high, very high, or extreme fire threat.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-14 WILDFIRE
Based on historical fire data, some portions of the County are more susceptible to wildfires, with some areas having burned 6-7 times during the recorded fire history period. The mountainous, highly combustible areas in and around the Los Padres National Forest are very susceptible to wildland fires. The communities along the Big Sur coast, including Big Sur, Post, Lucia, Gorda, and Plaskett, are also at great risk to wildland fires. Sudden Oak Death is present and expanding in this area and presents a serious and growing wildland fire danger.
Homes and property in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are likely areas of concern for future fires. Of the about 35,000 housing units located in the WUI, 38% are in an intermix zone and 62% are in an interface zone.
67 As both types of WUI account for significant area in Monterey County, mitigation strategies should address both zones.
The CAL FIRE BEU Unit Strategic Plan 68 has identified the following high risk fire areas in Monterey County:
• State Highway 68 Corridor between Salinas and Monterey Peninsula / Laureles Grade • Carmel Valley, Carmel Valley Village, and Cachagua
• Carmel Highlands / Palo Colorado Canyon
• Pine Canyon (King City)
• North Monterey County / Aromas
• Jacks Peak / Pebble Beach
18.2.3 FREQUENCY
The geography, weather patterns and vegetation in the County provide ideal conditions for recurring wildfires. As noted previously, there has been an average of 4 wildfires a year, with an average of 17,000 acres burning annually. In the past 20 years, close to 750 thousand acres of the County has burned. Therefore, Monterey County is likely to face a wildland fire threat each and every year and can expect a large wildland fire to occur every few years.
Fire frequency, defined as number of times burned between 1911 and 2021 is mapped in Figure 18-6. Areas in the Los Padres National Forest, along the Big Sur coast, and the Ventana Wilderness, are the most frequently burned areas in the County, burning in some areas more than 4-5 times in the last 100 years.
67 CAL FIRE, California’s Forests and Rangelands, 2017 Assessment 68 Unit Strategic Fire Plan San Benito-Monterey, June 2020 COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-15 WILDFIRE
Figure 18-6
Fire Frequency in Monterey County
Figure 18-6: Fire Frequency in Monterey County
18.2.4 SEVERITY
As outlined in the Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan 69 each area of the County is unique in the various aspects that impact fire behavior. Variations in type of vegetation, slope, and microclimate weather all play a role in fire spread potential. Density of structures, road access, water supply, and available timely fire suppression resources also impact the fire spread potential. The severity of the wildland fire hazard is determined by the relationship between three factors: fuel classification, topographic slope, and critical fire weather frequency.
Fuels
Hazardous levels of fire fuels can cause fire intensities to exceed firefighting tactical ability to contain and control them. Vegetation distribution throughout the county varies by location and topography, with dramatic differences observed between coastal, valley, and inland regions.
69 Fire Safe Council for Monterey County, Monterey County Community Wildfire Protection Plan , 2010
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-16 WILDFIRE
Dominant vegetative cover within Monterey County is herbaceous or grassland cover, distributed primarily in the low-lying valley areas along the Highway 101 corridor. While this fuel type can burn quickly under strong, dry wind patterns, it does not produce the high heat intensity and high flame lengths associated with chaparral fuel types. Other significant vegetative cover types include light brush, light grass/woodland, and hardwood litter, which are primarily associated with the steeper, upland areas in the southern, western, and northern portions of the County. Fire behavior in brush fuel types may produce flame lengths greater than 12 feet, and resistance to control may be high. Fire behavior in woodlands is variable, depending on surface fuel conditions and the presence of ladder fuels. However, crown fire is common if slope and wind conditions are favorable to allowing fire to enter the canopy.
In extreme warm/wet years, abundant precipitation and intense rainfall followed by high spring and summer temperatures rapidly dry the abundant fuels produced by the high precipitation.
Another concern within Monterey County is the presence of the Sudden Oak Death (SOD) pathogen and Pitch Canker disease. These infections can cause rapid tree mortality which can lead to a marked increase in surface fuel loads and subsequent fire behavior.
Topography
The topography of Monterey County is extremely variable, with elevations ranging from sea level to over 5,800 feet above mean sea level. Within the Salinas Valley, slopes are relatively flat across the valley floor, with elevations ranging from sea level to about 400 feet above mean sea level in the southern portions of the valley. More significant topographic variation is found in the eastern and western portions of the County, often characterized by steep slopes, deeply incised canyons, and narrow valleys. Slope measurements reach up to 175% gradients, most notably in the Los Padres National Forest located in the western portion of the County and the Gabilan Range located along the eastern County boundary. The regional topographic conditions within Monterey County have considerable effect on wildland fire behavior, as well as on the ability of firefighters to access and respond to wildfires. Steep slope and canyon alignments are conducive to channeling, deflecting, concentrating, or dispersing winds, and creating extremely erratic wildfire conditions, especially during wind driven fire events Weather
In Monterey County, the joining of marine and land air masses over uneven topography significantly compounds fire behavior. Erratic fire behavior due to rapidly shifting winds and humidity under "normal" conditions is common. During warmer and drier offshore wind flow regimes, which occur several times each year, wind patterns shift from onshore northwest to offshore east-northeast in the northern section of the County, and east-southeast in the southern portions of the County, often with above-average velocities. These conditions are associated with "Severe Fire Weather" and "Red Flag" fire warnings. Fire behavior under rare or extreme fire weather conditions constitute the greatest threat of destructive uncontrolled wildland fires, and historically are immune to planned tactical response and aggressive initial COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-17 WILDFIRE
attack. During extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel factors like age, density and moisture content may be overshadowed by weather factors such as high wind and low humidity.
18.2.5 WARNING TIME
Regardless of the circumstances that start a wildfire, warning time can be short since there is no way to predict when a wildfire might break out. Hazardous levels of fire fuels can cause fire intensities to exceed firefighting tactical ability to contain and control. High wind events that occur across much of California in autumn can create fires that are difficult to control, greatly increasing area burned and loss of life. Special attention should be paid to fires during severe wind events to improve warning time for those that might be affected or need to evacuate. Dry lightning may trigger wildfires as seen during the SCU Lightning Complex in 2020. Reliable NWS lightning warnings are available on average 24 to 48 hours prior to a significant electrical storm.
If a fire does break out and spreads rapidly, residents may need to evacuate within hours or minutes. A fire’s peak burning period generally is between 1 and 6 p.m. Once a fire has started, fire alerting is reasonably rapid in most cases. The rapid spread of cellular and two-way radio communications has contributed to a significant improvement in warning time.
In Monterey County, the safety of ingress and egress is not uniform in all areas. It is possible that some communities may become trapped without the option to evacuate, forcing them to shelter in place and defend themselves. Examples are the Big Sur coast, Palo Colorado, Partington Ridge, Los Burros Road, Cachagua, and White Rock.
18.3 SECONDARY HAZARDS
Wildfires can generate a range of secondary effects, which in some cases may cause more widespread and prolonged damage than the fire itself. The indirect effects of wildfires can be catastrophic.
18.3.1 WILDFIRE SMOKE
Smoke and air pollution from wildfires can be a health hazard, especially for sensitive populations including children, the elderly, and those with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Smoke generated by wildfire contains visible and invisible emissions comprising particulate matter such as soot and tar; gases such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen oxides; and toxics such as formaldehyde and benzene. Emissions from wildfires depend on the type of fuel, the moisture content of the fuel, the efficiency or temperature of combustion, and the weather. Wildfire may also threaten the health and safety of those fighting the fires. First responders are exposed to the dangers from the initial incident and after-effects from smoke inhalation and heat stroke.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-18 WILDFIRE
18.3.2 POST- FIRE INDUCED DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLOOD FLOWS Fires can have devastating effects on watersheds through loss of vegetation and soil erosion, which may impact the County by changing runoff patterns, increasing sedimentation, reducing natural and reservoir water storage capacity, and degrading water quality. Wildfires strip the land of vegetation and destroy forest resources. Exposed soils erode quickly and enhance siltation of rivers and streams, thereby enhancing flood potential, harming aquatic life, and degrading water quality. Wildfires can also bake soils, thus increasing the imperviousness of the ground. This increases the amount and speed of the runoff generated by storm events, further increasing the chance of flooding.
Lands stripped of vegetation are also subject to increased debris flow hazards. Slopes stripped of vegetation are exposed to greater amounts of runoff. This in turn can weaken soils and cause failures on slopes. The soils in a burn scar are highly erodible so flood waters can contain significant amounts of mud, boulders, and vegetation. For example, following the record fires in 2020, annual winter storms in 2021 caused flash floods and debris flows in the County. Fast moving mud and debris in the River Fire burn scar damaged 25 homes and injured 2 people. A large mudslide in the Dolan Fire burn scar took out a 150-foot section of Highway 1.
When wildfire-induced threats to life and safety are present, a state team of foresters, hydrologists, and geographic information systems specialists from CAL FIRE, engineering geologists from the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Regional Water Quality Control Boards (RWQCB), and civil engineers from the Department of Water Resources (DWR), can be assembled into a Watershed Emergency Response Team (WERT) to assess potential life-safety hazards from post-fire debris flows, hyper-concentrated flows, and flood flows.
An Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds that identifies imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources. The BAER identifies emergency stabilization measures that can be implemented before the first post-fire damaging events. BAER measures include actions such as: mulching, seeding, installation of run-off control structures, temporary barriers to protect recovering areas, and the installation of warning signs. The USGS also conducts post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires using geospatial data related to basin morphometry, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows that may occur in response to a storm.
18.4 RISK ASSESSMENT
For purposes of this analysis CAL FIRE Fire Threat data was used. Fire Threat combines expected fire frequency with potential fire behavior to create 4 threat classes, extreme, very high, high, and moderate. Wildland Fire Threat in Monterey County is mapped in Figure 18-7.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-19 WILDFIRE
Figure 18-7: Wildland Fire Threat
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-20 WILDFIRE
18.4.1 POPULATION
Wildfire is of greatest concern to populations residing in the moderate, high, and very high fire hazard threat zones. US Census data was used to estimate populations within the CAL FIRE identified fire threat zones.
As seen in Figure 18-8, 306,366 people, representing 74% of the population in Monterey County live in a very high, high, or moderate fire threat zone. 35,842 people, or 9% of the total population live in a very high fire threat zone. 83,044 people, or 20% of the total population live in a high fire threat zone. 187,480 people, or 45% of the total population live in a moderate fire threat zone.
Figure 18-8
Population Exposed to Wildfire Risk
Figure 18-8: Population Exposed to Wildfire Risk
Those who live in more rural intermix areas of the County, such as the Big Sur coast, Palo Colorado, Partington Ridge, Los Burros Road, Cachagua, and White Rock may be particularly vulnerable to a wildfire due to their isolated location. It is possible these communities could become trapped without the option to evacuate, forcing them to shelter in place.
Farmworkers are particularly vulnerable to wildfire impacts because of the potential degradation of transportation infrastructure, the increased exposure to wildfire smoke while working outdoors, and direct economic effects on the agricultural industry. Because many agricultural workers are migrant and/or cannot afford to live in the County due to the lack of affordable housing, they may not be fully captured in these population numbers. 9,913
6,568
1,923
17,438
3,787
30,114
10,518 10,448
28,177
17,041
46,732
36,688
29,422
57,597
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5
Monterey County Supervisorial District
Very High High Moderate
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-21 WILDFIRE
18.4.2 PROPERTY
As summarized in Table 18-3, in Monterey County, 35,252 residential properties are in either very high, high, or moderate fire risk zones. This accounts for about $33 billion in residential property value.
Table 18-3: Residential Property Exposed to Wildfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Table 18-3
Residential Property Exposed to Wildfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Supervisorial
District
Very High High Moderate
# Value # Value # Value
District 1 0 $0 23 $13,604,833 324 $202,243,637
District 2 676 $391,324,023 3,138 $1,584,293,526 5,380 $2,644,748,875 District 3 1,292 $415,516,076 1,599 $474,881,281 1,372 $426,980,382 District 4 12 $94,828,547 177 $336,350,806 1,140 $862,189,835 District 5 2,469 $2,833,126,759 5,144 $5,981,555,168 12,506 $16,833,680,153 Total 4,449 $3,734,795,405 10,081 $8,390,685,614 20,722 $20,969,842,882 As summarized in Table 18-4, In Monterey County, 33,344 non-residential properties are in either very high, high, or moderate fire risk zones. This is account for about $16 billion in non- residential property values.
Table 18-4: Non-Residential Property Exposed to Wil dfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Table 18-4
Non-Residential Property Exposed to Wildfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Supervisorial
District
Very High High Moderate
# Value # Value # Value
District 1 0 $0 21 $29,381,019 578 $425,871,786
District 2 492 $161,328,159 1,930 $429,905,806 3,634 $1,158,346,855 District 3 4,913 $2,049,593,977 5,675 $2,626,148,904 4,422 $3,128,901,995 District 4 37 $4,709,738 219 $175,659,923 1,135 $875,700,350 District 5 1,670 $454,937,569 3,581 $1,537,735,682 5,037 $2,981,931,211 Total 7,112 $2,670,569,443 11,426 $4,798,831,334 14,806 $8,570,752,197
18.4.3 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Critical facilities made of wood frame construction are especially vulnerable during wildfire events. In the event of a wildfire, there would likely be damage to infrastructure dependent on the severity of the wildfire and nature of the infrastructure. Most roads and railroads would sustain minimal to moderate damage except in the worst scenarios.
Power lines are the most at risk from wildfire since most transmission poles are made of wood and susceptible to burning. Fires can create conditions that block or prevent access and can isolate residents and emergency service providers. Wildfire typically does not have a major direct impact on bridges, but it can create conditions in which bridges are obstructed. Many COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-22 WILDFIRE
bridges in areas of high to moderate fire risk are important because they provide the only ingress and egress to large areas and in some cases to isolated neighborhoods.
Critical facilities of high concern and priority to protect from wildfires include communications infrastructure such as repeater sites, cell towers, radio towers, FAA communications, and the Big Sur Very High Frequency Omni-Directional Range (VOR). They are among the highest priorities to protect from wildfires.
Table 18-5 summarizes critical infrastructure in very high, high, or moderate fire risk zones.
Table 18-5: Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Wildfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Table 18-5
Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Wildfire Risk by Fire Hazard Threat Zone Critical Infrastructure Type Very High High Moderate
Facilities
Emergency Response 0 8 7
Fire Station 1 6 4
Police Station 0 0 0
Medical Facilities 0 2 7
Military Facility 0 0 2
Large Public Facilities 0 0 0
Educational Facilities 0 3 8
Power Plant 0 0 0
Water & Wastewater Facilities 23 46 103
Stormwater Facilities 0 0 2
Government Facilities 12 14 24
Communication Facilities 498 401 253
Rain Gauges 10 15 6
Lighthouses 0 0 0
Dams 0 0 0
Hazardous Materials
Active or Idle Oil Well 735 728 284
Landfill 0 0 0
Underground Tank 1 0 1
Cal ARP Facility 0 3 1
Transportation
Airport 0 4 2
Bridge 20 53 29
Harbor 0 0 0
Highway/Freeway (Miles) 47 93 160
Driveway (Miles) 0 2 3
Major Road (Miles) 335 456 543
Local (Miles) 1,008 1,311 1,331
Railroad (Miles) 23 37 56
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-23 WILDFIRE
18.4.4 ENVIRONMENT
Many ecosystems adapt to historical patterns of fire occurrence. These patterns, called “fire regimes,” include temporal attributes such as frequency and seasonality, spatial attributes such as size and spatial complexity, and magnitude attributes such as intensity and severity, each of which have ranges of natural variability. Ecosystem stability is threatened when any of the attributes for a given fire regime diverge from its range of natural variability. Severe environmental impacts associated with wildfires in Monterey County include:
• Soil Erosion—The protective covering provided by foliage and dead organic matter is removed, leaving the soil fully exposed to wind and water erosion. Accelerated soil erosion occurs, causing landslides and threatening aquatic habitats. • Soil Sterilization—Topsoil exposed to extreme heat can become water repellant, and soil nutrients may be lost. It can take decades or even centuries for ecosystems to recover from a fire. Some fires burn so hot that they can sterilize the soil. • Damaged Fisheries—Critical fisheries can suffer from increased water temperatures, sedimentation, and changes in water quality.
• Spread of Invasive Plant Species—Non-native woody plant species frequently invade burned areas. When weeds become established, they can dominate the plant cover over broad landscapes, and become difficult and costly to control. • Disease and Insect Infestations—Unless diseased or insect-infested trees are swiftly removed, infestations and disease can spread to healthy forests and private lands.
Timely active management actions are needed to remove diseased or infested trees. • Destroyed Endangered Species Habitat—Fire can have devastating consequences for endangered species.
18.4.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT
Local economic impacts from catastrophic wildfires include the cost of fire suppression, disruptions to consumption and production of local goods and services. Immediate effects may include decreased recreation/tourism and timber harvest, as well as disruptions from evacuations and transportation delays. Other effects include direct property losses (in the form of buildings, timber, livestock, and other capital), damage to human health, and possible changes in the long-term structure of the local economy.
The tourism sector is critical economic sector in Monterey County, which is especially vulnerable to increasing risks of forest fires. The Big Sur area is a popular attraction bordering the Los Padres National Forest which is highly prone to fire risk. Big Sur was heavily impacted during the Basin Complex Fires in 2008, the Pfeiffer Fire in December of 2013, the Soberanes Fire of 2016, and the Dolan Fire in 2020. Laguna Seca is a popular recreational facility playing host to several large events throughout the year is also in a fire risk area. Increased fire threats and active wildfire will make these tourist areas less attractive, which, in turn, could negatively COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 18-24 WILDFIRE
impact local businesses. These may include small, medium, and large-scale businesses such as hotels, restaurants, and transportation, which are important contributors to the local economy.
Agriculture, the other key economic sector in the County, is also vulnerable to wildfire risk.
Structures, irrigation systems, and equipment, crops, livestock, and stored commodities can be lost to wildfire. Fires can also affect soil quality, which can have a ripple effect lasting many, many years. Smoke also can have many negative impacts on crops. When less sunlight reaches crops, crops develop more slowly. Less sunlight can lead to higher disease loads. When ash coats leaves and fruit, crops have even less access to light. Some crops can absorb enough smoke to change the flavor. Fires also create a high-risk environment for agricultural workers and protecting workers can delay harvest, leading to destroying overly ripe crops. There is no well-established protocol to mitigate the occupational health and safety risks associated with wildfires, which can leave workers vulnerable. In addition to the dangers of an active fire, wildfire smoke, ash, and chemicals used to treat fires negatively affect air and water quality.
18.5 FUTURE TRENDS IN DEVELOPMENT
The expansion of the wildland urban interface can be managed with strong land use and building codes. Monterey County is well equipped with these tools and this planning process has assessed capabilities with regards to the tools. As the County experiences future growth, it is anticipated that the exposure to this hazard will remain as assessed over time due to these capabilities.
18.6 ISSUES
The major issues associated with wildfire in Monterey County include the following:
• Public education and outreach to people living in or near the fire hazard zones should include information about and assistance with mitigation activities such as defensible space, and advance identification of evacuation routes and safe zones. • Wildfires could cause landslides as a secondary natural hazard. • Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and severity of wildland fires in Monterey County.
• Future housing growth and development in the WUI should continue to be managed. • Limited water supply for firefighting in high-risk wildfire areas can limit response capabilities.
• Ingress and egress in interface and intermix areas can be limited due to a lack of road infrastructure.
• Wildfire poses a large threat to key economic sectors: Agriculture and Tourism. • Continuing and expanding hazardous fuels reduction programs. Fuel mitigation regulations hinder the ability of private property owner’s ability to reduce risk on their property.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-1 CLIMATE CHANGE
19. CLIMATE CHANGE
19.1 OVERVIEW
Climate is a description of long-term weather patterns. Climate change refers to any distinct change in measures of climate lasting for a long period of time, more specifically major changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns. Climate change may be limited to a specific region or may occur across the whole Earth. Climate change may result from:
• Natural factors, such as changes in the Sun’s energy or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun
• Natural processes within the climate system, such as changes in ocean circulation • Human activities that change the atmosphere’s make-up, and the land surface, such as burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, planting trees, or building developments in cities and suburb
The effects of climate change are varied and include warmer and more varied weather patterns, melting ice caps, and poor air quality, for example. Climate change will affect the people, property, economy, and ecosystems in Monterey County. The most important effect for the development of this plan is that climate change will have a measurable impact on the occurrence and severity of natural hazards. Increasing temperatures and rising sea-levels will have direct impacts on public health and infrastructure. Drought, coastal and inland flooding, and wildfire will continue to affect people’s livelihoods and local economies. Changing weather patterns and more extreme conditions will impact tourism and rural economies, along with changes to agriculture and crops, which are a critical backbone of Monterey County’s economic
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-2 CLIMATE CHANGE
success. There will also be negative impacts to our ecosystems, both on land and in the ocean, leading to local extinctions, migrations, and management challenges.
19.1.1 SEA LEVEL RISE
Another outcome of global climate change is sea-level rise. The sea level rose during the 20th century, and observations and projections suggest that it will rise at a higher rate during the 21st century. Rising seas increase the risk of coastal flooding, storm surge inundation, coastal erosion and shoreline retreat, and wetland loss. The cities and infrastructure that line many coasts are already vulnerable to damage from storms, which is likely to increase as sea level continues to rise and inundate areas further inland.
Globally, sea level is rising primarily because global temperatures are rising, causing ocean water to expand and land ice to melt. However, sea-level rise varies from place to place. Sea- level rise along the Pacific coast depends on the global mean sea-level rise and also on regional factors, such as ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns in the northern Pacific Ocean, gravitational and deformational effects of land ice mass changes, and tectonics along the coast.
The comparative importance of these factors determines whether local sea level is higher or lower than the global mean, and how fast it is changing which has enormous implications for coastal planning.
19.1.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND HAZARD MITIGATION
The 2018 California State Hazard Mitigation Plan states that California is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, including prolonged drought, increased coastal flooding and erosion, and tree mortality. The state has also seen increased average temperatures, more extreme heat days, fewer cold nights, a lengthening of the growing season, shifts in the water cycle with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and both snowmelt and rainwater running off sooner in the year. The intensity of extreme weather events is also increasing. Extreme weather events and resulting hazards, such as heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods are already being experienced.
An essential aspect of hazard mitigation is predicting the likelihood of hazard events. Typically, predictions are based on records of past events, which assumes that the likelihood of hazard events remains essentially unchanged over time. Thus, averages based on the past frequencies are used to estimate future frequencies. For hazards that are affected by climate conditions, the assumption that future behavior will be equivalent to past behavior is not valid if climate conditions are changing. Information about how climate patterns are changing can increase the reliability of future hazard projections. The risk, severity, and likelihood of many hazards in Monterey County are affected by climate patterns. For this reason, an understanding of climate change is essential to efforts to effective hazard mitigation.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-3 CLIMATE CHANGE
A Hazard Mitigation Framework for Climate Adaptation
A hazard mitigation framework for adaptation planning creates a beneficial risk management focus for climate adaptation. The complexity and cumulative nature of climate impacts in Monterey County requires a multi-hazard approach to climate change risk. Therefore, addressing climate change in the plan as a separate hazard that will increase the risk of other hazards in this plan was determined to be the most appropriate strategy. Examples of the cumulative impacts of climate change that could affect Monterey County include:
• Wildfires are likely to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and more frequent and severe wildfires will release more carbon into the atmosphere exacerbating climate change.
• Precipitation variability can increase the length of fire season and worsen floods and coastal storms.
• As sea levels rise more extreme storm events will cause increased flooding impacts and increase coastal erosion rates.
• Wildfires followed by storm events increase the risk of landslides. Increased erosional forces related to sea-level rise will affect sea cliffs, creating steeper slopes while undermining the base of sea cliffs, increasing the risk and magnitude of landslides. • Exposure to wildfires, wildfire smoke, and post-wildfire events such as erosion, debris flow, and flooding can affect a watershed’s functioning and its associated ecosystem services, including water quantity and water quality. Increased sedimentation in the watershed will increase flood risk.
• Sea level rise will cause wetlands to recede reducing critical ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, flood risk reduction, water filtration, erosion control, and groundwater recharge.
• Droughts will be more extreme and last longer due to climate change and this will have a large effect on water availability and agricultural production. Droughts increase the probability of wildfire occurrence and as fires burn more intensely, the chances heat destroys valuable topsoil increases, further affecting agriculture. Droughts decrease water availability when fire risk is highest, which could be an issue when fighting fires. • Drought can lead to groundwater overdraft, which causes land subsidence and increases the risk of seawater intrusion. Land subsidence increases sea level rise risk by creating more low-lying areas vulnerable to flooding and increasing the risk of groundwater daylighting, while seawater intrusion further reduces water supply. • Worsened hazards can affect multiple sectors of the local economy including recreation, tourism, agriculture, and forestry. Homes that are destroyed or in hazardous areas could lose value reducing homeowner’s ability to recover and effecting government revenue needed for recovery and adaptation.
In order to capture these cumulative effects and avoid maladaptation, the County decided to approach climate change resilience with a systematic multi-hazard approach.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-4 CLIMATE CHANGE
19.2 HAZARD PROFILE
19.2.1 HISTORY
Though climate change has not been proven solely
responsible for any disasters, past flooding,
wildfire, and drought disasters may have been
exacerbated by it. It is difficult to make direct
connections to individual disasters but increases in
both the magnitude and impact of hazards over the
last few years is likely linked to climate change.
The powerful El Niño of 2015-16 was one of the
three largest in the historical record and resulted in
winter wave energy over 25% larger than a typical
winter, driving unprecedented beach erosion that
was 45% higher than normal.
70 The impacts from
flooding and debris flows have also been
increasing. Storms in 2017 caused a record amount
of damage across the County. In 2021, storms
caused a mudslide in the burn scar left by the River
Fire that damaged 25 homes in Chualar. Flooding
also occurred near the Carmel Lagoon and the
Carmel River State Beach. The County has
experienced an increase in wildfires, with 2018,
2019 and 2020 growing the acreage of forest
burned due to extremely dry conditions. In 2020,
the River, Carmel, Dolan, and Coleman fires burned
a combined 180,000 acres.
Previous studies have indicated that important
areas and public infrastructure will be increasingly
at risk from climate change hazards. Additionally,
unlike earthquakes and floods that occur over a
finite time period, climate change is an ongoing
hazard. Many communities are already
experiencing the effects, while other effects may
not be seriously experienced for decades or may be
avoided altogether by mitigation actions taken
today.
70 California Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Central Coast Region Report Mitigation Success Story
City of Gonzales Growing Green
One of the best ways to reduce the impact
of future climate hazards is to make
progress on climate goals today. The City
of Gonzales was the first city in the County
with a certified climate action plan and has
already met its 2020 target for reducing
energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
Gonzales harnesses the wind and sun to
reduce its carbon footprint and
demonstrates how a community can use
its stewardship of the environment as a
way of encouraging economic vitality.
Solar panels power the community pool,
police headquarters, a wastewater
treatment plant, and water wells.
Work on the environment and economy
falls under the direction of the Gonzales
Grows Green (G3) initiative. Harnessing
the strong valley breeze that arises every
afternoon, the City partnered with Taylor
Farms to build a wind turbine on City
owned land. Nonprofit developer,
Foundation Windpower, built and financed
the project and another food processor,
Mann Packing/DelMonte Fresh, will use
energy from a second wind turbine when it
opens a new plant, creating 525 jobs.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-5 CLIMATE CHANGE
19.2.2 LOCATION
The effects of climate change are not limited by geographical borders. Monterey County, the State of California, the United States, and the rest of the world are all at risk of climate change.
As such, the entire County is at risk to the effects of climate change.
19.2.3 FREQUENCY
In terms of how likely and quickly impacts will occur, temperature related impacts are the most likely near-term climate change exposure facing the County and should be addressed and prioritized in future adaptation planning efforts. While sea-level rise has a high certainty rating and is already occurring, its onset is not expected to occur until closer to the end of the century in terms of changes in areas already vulnerable to flooding or causing permanent inundation in tidally influenced areas of the County. Addressing increases in flooding and wildfire risk have mid-term onsets and should be prioritized accordingly.
19.2.4 SEVERITY
The State of California has been taking action to address climate change for over 20 years, focusing on both greenhouse gas emissions reduction and adaptation. The California Adaptation Planning Guide (APG) provides guidance and support for communities addressing the unavoidable consequences of climate change. The California Fourth Climate Change Assessment
71 identifies the following climate change impacts of concern to the Central Coast:
• Maximum and minimum temperatures will continue to increase through the next century, with greater increases in inland areas. Precipitation is expected to increase slightly, but precipitation variability will increase substantially • Projected future droughts are likely to be a serious challenge to already stressed water supplies. Higher temperatures may result in increases in water demand for agriculture and landscaping. Reduced surface water will lead to increases in groundwater extractions that may result in increased seawater intrusion. Lower surface flows will lead to higher pollutant concentrations and will impact aquatic species. • Impacts to the region’s public health include increases in heat-related illnesses for agricultural workers, harmful particulate matter from wildfires, and an increase in ground-level ozone. Infectious/Vector-borne diseases include an increase in Valley Fever and Pacific Coast tick fever, and an increase in harmful algal blooms will have detrimental effects on animals and people exposed to toxins released from the algae. • Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate change, including amounts, forms, and distribution of precipitation, changes in temperatures, and increased frequency and intensity of climate extremes. The Salinas Valley is identified as one of the most vulnerable agricultural regions under climate change.
71 California Fourth Climate Change Assessment, Central Coast Region Report COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-6 CLIMATE CHANGE
• Periodic El Niño events dominate coastal hazards while atmospheric rivers, expected to increase, are the dominant drivers of locally extreme rainfall events. • Recently observed and projected acceleration in sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities. Future flooding is also a serious concern. • Estuarine systems will be affected by accelerated sea level rise, warming of water and air, ocean acidification, and changes in runoff. Some marshes may drown or become shallow mudflats, leading to a loss of the ecosystem services that marshes provide. • Many beaches will narrow considerably. As many as two-thirds will be completely lost over the next century, along with the ecosystems supported by those beaches. The landward erosion of beaches will be driven by accelerating sea level rise combined with a lack of ample sediment, effectively drowning the beaches between the rising ocean and the backing cliffs and/or urban hardscape.
• Frequent and sometimes large wildfires will continue to be a major disturbance and post-fire recovery time may be lengthened.
Some of these changes are direct or primary climatic changes, such as increased temperature, while others are indirect climatic changes or secondary impacts resulting from these direct changes, such as heat and air pollution. Some direct changes may interact with one another to create unique secondary impacts.
Climate change projections contain inherent uncertainty, largely derived from the fact that they depend on future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Generally, the uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions is addressed by the presentation of differing scenarios. Uncertainty in outcomes is generally addressed by averaging a variety of model outcomes.
Despite this uncertainty, climate change projections present valuable information to help guide decision-making for possible future conditions. Representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, are different scenarios for the future severity of climate change. The following sections summarize information developed for the County by Cal-Adapt, a resource for public information on how climate change might impact local communities, based on the most current data available. The projections are averaged across the countywide planning area and include information from two emissions scenarios, which were developed by the IPCC:
• Medium Emissions Scenario (RCP 4.5): Emissions peak around 2040 and then decline • High Emissions Scenario (RCP 8.5): Emissions continue to rise strongly through 2050 and plateau around 2100
Temperature
The historical (1961-1990) average maximum temperature in Monterey County was 70.1°F and the average minimum temperature was 41.5°F. While average temperatures may fluctuate from year-to-year, and may differ from one municipality to the next, the trend for the County indicates that average temperatures are increasing. By Mid-Century, average annual maximum temperatures are expected to increase 3.4°F – 4.2°F, depending on the emissions scenario. By COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-7 CLIMATE CHANGE
the end of the century, annual maximum temperatures could increase 4.5°F – 7.4°F. Predicted changes in annual average minimum and maximum temperatures in Monterey County is summarized in Table 19-1.
Table 19-1: Predicted Change in Annual Average Temperatures in Monterey County Table 19-1
Predicted Change in Annual Average Temperatures in Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Emissions Scenario
Average Minimum Temperatures Average Maximum Temperatures Change 30-Year
Average
30-Year
Range Change 30-Year
Average
30-Year
Range
Baseline (1961-1990)
Modeled Historical - 41.7 °F 41.0 - 42.3 °F - 70.0 °F 69.5 - 70.5 °F Mid-Century (2035-2064)
Medium Emissions (RCP 4.5) +3.1 °F 44.8 °F 43.1 - 46.2 °F +3.4 °F 73.4 °F 71.8 - 74.8 °F High Emissions (RCP 8.5) +3.9 °F 45.6 °F 43.9 - 47.1 °F +4.2 °F 74.2 °F 72.3 - 76.1 °F End-Century (2070-2099)
Low Emissions (RCP 4.5) +4.1 °F 45.8 °F 43.5 - 47.7 °F +4.5 °F 74.5 °F 72.4 - 76.9 °F High Emissions (RCP 8.5) +7.0 °F 48.7 °F 45.8 - 51.5 °F +7.4 °F 77.4 °F 74.6 - 81.4 °F
Figure 19-1 shows the projected increases in average temperatures in Monterey County under various climate change scenarios.
Figure 19-1
Projected Increase in Average Temperature in Monterey County
Figure 19-1: Projected Increase in Average Temperature in Monterey County 50 52
54 56
58 60
62 64
66 68Degrees Farenheit
Year
Historical
Average
Temperature
Medium
Emissions
Average
Temperature
High Emissions
Average
Temperature
Source: Cal-Adpat,
LOCA Downscaled
CMIP5 Climate
Projections, 4 priority
GCMs (HadGEM2-ES,
CNRM-CM5,
CanESM2, MIROC5)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-8 CLIMATE CHANGE
Extreme Heat
Extreme hot temperatures are likely to become more common. The extreme heat day temperature threshold for Monterey County is 92.5°F. The historical average (1961-1990) number of extreme heat days is 4 days. By Mid-Century, there are projected to be an annual average of 8-11 days with temperatures over the extreme heat day threshold. By the end of the century, there are projected to be an annual average of 12-24 days per year with temperatures over the extreme heat day threshold.
Figure 19-2 shows the projected increases in extreme heat days in Monterey County under various climate change scenarios.
Figure 19-2
Projected Increase in Extreme Heat Days in Monterey County
Figure 19-2: Projected Increase in Extreme Heat Days in Monterey County Precipitation
Projections of changes in precipitation are more nuanced than projected changes in temperature and have less separation between emissions scenarios. There is a projected increase of year-to-year variability with wetter days during periods of precipitation, but with fewer total days with precipitation. Average annual precipitation under RCP8.5 shows significant increases by 2100. Precipitation is generally expected to increase throughout Monterey County. Historical annual average precipitation in Monterey County is 19.3 inches and annual average precipitation is projected to increase by 1.8 to 5.1 inches annually.
While average precipitation is expected to increase by a relatively small amount, annual variability increases substantially by the end of the century. Projections suggest that extremely 0 5
10 15
20 25
30 35
40Number of Extreme Heat Days
Year
Modeled
Historical
Medium
Emissions
Scenario
High
Emissions
Scenario
Source: Cal-Adpat,
LOCA Downscaled
CMIP5 Climate
Projections, 4 priority
GCMs (HadGEM2-ES,
CNRM-CM5,
CanESM2, MIROC5)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-9 CLIMATE CHANGE
wet and dry years may become more severe, and that the wettest day of the year will become wetter relative to historical conditions.
Fog
A key feature of the Coastal regions of Monterey County is summertime coastal fog and low clouds. Low clouds reflect solar radiation, which cools the land surface. Fog droplets also add water to coastal systems. The landscape pattern of coastal fog and low clouds is remarkably stable. Low elevation sites and valleys that are open to northwest summer winds, such as Salinas Valley and Monterey Peninsula, average 15 hours/day of summertime fog and low cloud cover annually. Agriculture benefits when fog and low clouds reduce evapotranspiration rates, reducing crop demand for water and irrigation.
The future of coastal fog under climate change remains uncertain. Coastal fog formation and onshore transport are a result of complex feedbacks between ocean, air, and land systems and provide a unique focal point to better understand global to local climate change dynamics.
19.2.5 WARNING TIME
As this section has described, many existing hazards could be intensified as a result of climate change, decreasing warning times and exacerbating impacts. Warning times are discussed under the various other hazards. Other climate change impacts are more long-term; scientists have a high confidence in predicting the rise in global temperatures and have reached a consensus on the future impacts of climate change and the time frame in which they will occur.
19.3 RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Communities and governments worldwide are working to address, evaluate and prepare for climate change impacts that are likely to affect communities in coming decades. Generally, climate change discussions encompass two separate but inter-related considerations:
mitigation and adaptation. The term “mitigation” can be confusing because the term’s meaning changes across disciplines:
• Mitigation in emergency management - as generally addressed in this hazard mitigation plan - is typically defined as the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters.
• Mitigation in climate change discussions is defined as a human intervention to reduce impacts on the climate system. It includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhance greenhouse gas sinks.
In this chapter, mitigation is used as defined by the climate change community. In the other chapters of this plan, mitigation is primarily used in an emergency management context.
Adaptation refers to adjustments in natural or human systems in response to the actual or anticipated effects of climate change and associated impacts. These adjustments may moderate COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-10 CLIMATE CHANGE
harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Mitigation and adaptation are related, as the world’s ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will affect the degree of adaptation that will be necessary. Some initiatives and actions can both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support adaptation to likely future conditions.
Societies across the world are facing the need to adapt to changing conditions associated with natural disasters and climate change. Farmers are altering crops and agricultural methods to deal with changing rainfall and rising temperature; architects and engineers are redesigning buildings; planners are looking at managing water supplies to deal with droughts or flooding.
Adaptive capacity is the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change. Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents a practical means of coping with changes and uncertainties in climate, including variability and extremes.
Adaptive capacity goes beyond human systems, as some ecosystems are able to adapt to change and to buffer surrounding areas from the impacts of change. Forests can bind soils and hold large volumes of water during times of plenty, releasing it through the year; floodplains can absorb vast volumes of water during peak flows; coastal ecosystems can hold out against storms, attenuating waves and reducing erosion. Other ecosystem services, such as food provision, timber, materials, medicines, and recreation, can provide a buffer to societies in the face of changing conditions. Ecosystem-based adaptation is the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services as part of an overall strategy to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. This includes the sustainable management, conservation and restoration of specific ecosystems that provide key services.
Assessment of the current climate action planning efforts of the planning partners are included in the jurisdiction-specific annexes in Volume 2.
19.3.1 COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Adaptation and resilience are not the same thing, although they are related. As noted previously, adaptation refers to adjustments in natural or human systems in response to the actual or anticipated effects of climate change and associated impacts. Resilience is the capacity of any entity - an individual, a community, an organization, or a natural system - to prepare for disruptions, to recover from shocks and stresses, and to adapt and grow from a disruptive experience. A community’s resilience is determined by its ability to survive, adapt, and thrive no matter what acute shock or chronic stressor it experiences. Put simply, adaptation is an action or set of actions, and resilience describes a desired outcome.
Flooding, drought, and other climate-hazards increase risk to already vulnerable populations.
Becoming more resilient by anticipating and addressing community threats, holds the potential to save lives, to save billions in recovery dollars and economic losses, and encourages social equity and connectedness, fostering communities that grow and recover in ways that make them stronger than before.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-11 CLIMATE CHANGE
Monterey County is taking steps to prepare for the impacts of a changing climate and a series of adaptive steps can greatly contribute to resilience. In a resilient Monterey County:
• Built infrastructure systems can withstand changing conditions and shocks, including changes in climate conditions, while continuing to provide critical services. • People and communities can respond to changing average conditions, shocks, and stresses in a manner that minimizes risks to public health, safety, and economic disruption; and maximizes equity and protection of the most vulnerable so that they do not simply survive climate-related events but thrive after these events. • Natural systems can adjust and maintain functioning ecosystems in the face of change.
The Monterey County Community Resilience Plan
is a countywide framework outlining the
challenges and opportunities to building a more resilient Monterey County. Through the resilience assessment and community discussions, Monterey County has identified six strategies to build community resilience and address the unpredictable impacts of environmental, social, and economic shocks and stresses.
Strategy 1: Build Social Capital
Social capital encompasses the social networks, associations, and the trust that they generate among groups and individuals within the community. Social capital has the potential to contribute to resilience by enhancing sense of belonging and strengthening bonds between individuals and groups within communities. By building social capital and creating a strong sense of community, Monterey County can build a network of social support, which can help the community work together to be more prepared before, during, and after disasters. A socially connected community is more resilient and better able to withstand disasters and foster community recovery.
Strategy 2: Enhance Emergency Services Infrastructure
Emergency preparedness, response, and recovery, efforts can help protect the community from the impacts of disasters. Enhancing emergency services infrastructure can make it easier to withstand, respond to and recover from emergencies. Further, advanced planning for critical facilities and infrastructure, transportation, and communication systems can make response and recovery efforts easier. For communities to function and prosper, they need buildings and infrastructure systems that are operational. When buildings and infrastructure systems are damaged, social services frequently are interrupted, economic losses soar, and resources must be re-allocated to repair and rebuild. Continual improvements in preparedness in response to threats and disruptions will build a stronger and more resilient Monterey County.
Strategy 3: Move Toward Sustainability
Resilience and sustainability represent complementary values. Sustainability is the ability to continue important functions indefinitely without a decline in quality. Resilience is the ability to thrive in the face of change. Together, these two concepts identify a key social, economic, and environmental goal: to create systems that enhance, rather than degrade, the world around COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-12 CLIMATE CHANGE
them, and in turn that can withstand inevitable shocks from environmental and technological changes.
Strategy 4: Create Healthy Communities
Health, meaning physical, behavioral, social, and environmental health and wellbeing, is a big part of overall resilience. In many ways, health is a key foundation of resilience because almost everything done to prepare for disasters and protect infrastructure is ultimately in the interest of preserving human health and welfare. A resilient community has accessible health systems that are able to withstand disasters. The community can take collective action after an adverse event because it has developed resources that reduce the impact of major disturbances and help protect people’s health. Resilient communities promote individual and community physical, behavioral, and social health to strengthen their communities for daily, as well as extreme, challenges.
Strategy 5: Encourage Resilient Households
A resilient community has the capacity, resources, and tools necessary to prepare for, withstand, and respond to system shocks and unexpected events, and this can start at the household level. Preparing families and households to anticipate the impacts of natural hazards and disasters, will increase their ability to persevere through the event and get back to normal life as quickly as possible.
Strategy 6: Empower Social Mobility
A resilient community understands that hazards and disasters have disproportionately adverse impacts on vulnerable populations (including economically disadvantaged, racial and ethnic minorities, the uninsured, low-income children, and elderly residents, the homeless, and those with chronic health conditions) and works to understand and meet the needs of all.
19.4 RISK ASSESSMENT - SEA LEVEL RISE
This Plan highlights sea-level rise within the climate change section because this hazard has delineated hazard boundaries and quantifiable exposure and damage estimations directly related to climate change.
While flooding already poses a risk in Monterey County, rising seas will put new areas at risk and increase the likelihood and intensity of floods in areas already at risk. Rising sea levels will affect Monterey County in several ways including increased tidal inundation, coastal erosion, tsunami inundation, and seawater intrusion, as well as worsened storm surge leading to increased coastal and fluvial flooding. Coastal levees and flood control structures will be undersized to manage the combined influences of higher flow events and sea level rise. Erosion of barrier dunes will expose previously protected areas to flooding.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-13 CLIMATE CHANGE
U
nder medium to medium-hi
gh emissions scenario, projections indicate mean sea level along the coast of Monterey County could rise close to 5 feet by 2100. 72 The current sea level rise
projections for the Monterey Tide Gauge are summarized in Table 19-2.
Table 19-2: Monterey Tide Gauge Projected Sea Level Rise (in Feet) Table 19-2
Monterey Tide Gauge Projected Sea Level Rise (in feet)
Year Low Risk Aversion1* Medium-High Risk Aversion2* Extreme Risk Aversion** Upper Limit of Likely 1-in-200 Chance Single Scenario
2030 0.5 0.8 1.0
2040 0.8 1.2 1.7
2050 1.1 1.9 2.7
2060 1.4 2.6 3.8
2070 1.8 3.4 5.1
2080 2.3 4.4 6.6
2090 2.8 5.5 8.2
2100 3.3 6.9 10.1
1 ~17% probability sea level rise exceeds number listed 2 0.5% probability sea level rise exceeds number listed * Probabilistic Projections (in feet) (based on Kopp et al. 2014) ** H++ Scenario, no associated probability (Sweet et al. 2017)
While mean sea level will rise across the County, it is relative. Locational differences in elevation between the height of the sea surface and the height of the land surface will lead to a variation in the risks posed to communities and ecosystems from coastal flooding. Relative sea level rise across the County will be determined by vertical land motion, changes in the height of the geoid (the gravitationally determined surface of the ocean in the absence of tides and ocean currents), and changes in the height of the sea surface relative to the geoid. Additionally, land use patterns and development, flood control structures, habitat, and geomorphology vary greatly. Therefore, the change in relative sea level will vary across the County coastline.
Sea level rise risk exposure was calculated based on the NOAA Office for Coastal Management’s sea level rise projections.
73 Based on NOAA’s scenarios, Figure 19-3 shows the potential inundation coastal areas from projected 1 to 10 feet sea level rise above the current Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) condition.
Three sea level rise levels (25 cm, 75 cm, and 200 cm) were chosen to represent planning horizons based on Ocean Protection Council (OPC) Sea Level Rise Projections for the Monterey Tide Gauge. 25 cm of sea level rise represents near term (2030) risk, 75 cm represent mid-term (2060) risk, and 200 cm represent long-term (2100) risk. This assessment is based on current conditions and does consider any adaptation or mitigation measures that may be taken in the coming decades.
72 State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance, Ocean Protection Council (2018) 73 Sea Level Rise Viewer, NOAA Office for Coastal Management COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-14 CLIMATE CHANGE
Figure 19-3: Sea Level Rise Risk
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-15 CLIMATE CHANGE
19.4.1 POPULATION AND PROPERTY
Table 19-3, Table 19-4, and Table 19-5 summarize people and property that will be exposed to sea level rise risk in the Supervisorial District 2, 4, and 5, respectively. Districts 1 and 3 are not located on the coast and were not considered exposed to sea level rise risk.
Table 19-3: Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk in District 2 Table 19-3
Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise in Monterey County District 2 Sea Level Rise Amount Population Residential Property Non-Residential Property # Value # Value
1 ft Sea Level Rise (2030) 2,129 39 $12,796,994 1,342 $153,665,283 3 ft Sea Level Rise (2060) 2,570 54 $19,137,706 1,449 $212,686,695 7 ft Sea Level Rise (2100) 7,000 294 $140,045,288 1,757 $334,589,838 Table 19-4: Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk in District 4 Table 19-4
Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise in Monterey County District 4 Sea Level Rise Amount Population Residential Property Non-Residential Property # Value # Value
1 ft Sea Level Rise (2030) 85 1 $170,236 73 $172,367,581 3 ft Sea Level Rise (2060) 85 1 $170,236 78 $173,380,493 7 ft Sea Level Rise (2100) 127 4 $1,443,035 96 $199,664,235 Table 19-5: Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk in District 5 Table 19-5
Population and Property Exposed to Sea Level Rise in Monterey County District 5 Sea Level Rise Amount Population Residential Property Non-Residential Property # Value # Value
1 ft Sea Level Rise (2030) 1,056 165 $901,001,664 391 $463,086,630 3 ft Sea Level Rise (2060) 1,070 183 $1,044,954,182 418 $593,512,581 7 ft Sea Level Rise (2100) 1,830 218 $1,212,814,204 708 $747,868,671
It is also important to consider the combined effect of sea level rise with worsened storm surge.
During a 1% annual chance flood, 5 feet of sea level rise would leave around 14,000 people and $2.2 billion in property vulnerable to flooding in the County. 74 Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) expands and improves on earlier sea level rise studies by dynamically modeling storm and sea level rise scenarios across California, and incorporating fluvial discharge, ocean swell, storm surge, and sea level anomalies (as during El Niño). CoSMoS modeling indicates some areas will be increasingly vulnerable to the cumulative impacts of sea level rise.
74 California Climate Change Center, The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the California Coast (May 2009) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-16 CLIMATE CHANGE
For example, as seen in Figure 19-4, with 1.6 feet of sea level rise flood extent in the Moss Landing area will vary based on the storm magnitude.
Figure 19-4
1.6 Feet Sea Level Rise in the Moss Landing Area with Various Storm Scenarios (CoSMoS)
Figure 19-4: 1.6 Feet Sea Level Rise in Moss Landing with Various Storm Scenarios
19.4.2 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Some critical infrastructure and facilities are at increased risk of coastal flooding in the County due to sea level rise. Portions of Highway 1 in the northern end of the County will become increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise risk. Critical facilities and other important assets may be damaged by temporary inundation, resulting in loss of services such as power or wastewater treatment.
Table 19-6 summarizes critical infrastructure exposed to sea level rise risk.
Table 19-6: Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk Table 19-6
Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk
Critical Infrastructure Type 1 ft Sea Level Rise
(2030)
3 ft Sea Level Rise
(2060)
7 ft Sea Level Rise
(2100)
Facilities
Emergency Response 0 0 0
Fire Station 0 0 0
Police Station 0 0 0
Medical Facilities 0 0 0
Military Facility 0 0 0
Large Public Facilities 0 0 0
Educational Facilities 0 1 2
Power Plant 0 0 0
Water & Wastewater Facilities 1 1 11
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-17 CLIMATE CHANGE
Table 19-6
Critical Infrastructure Exposed to Sea Level Rise Risk
Critical Infrastructure Type 1 ft Sea Level Rise
(2030)
3 ft Sea Level Rise
(2060)
7 ft Sea Level Rise
(2100)
Stormwater Facilities 0 0 3
Government Facilities 0 0 0
Communication Facilities 4 7 17
Rain Gauges 0 1 0
Lighthouses 0 0 0
Dams 0 0 0
Hazardous Materials
Active or Idle Oil Well 2 3 4
Landfill 0 0 0
Underground Tank 0 0 0
Cal ARP Facility 0 0 0
Transportation
Airport 0 0 0
Bridge 8 0 9
Harbor 3 3 3
Highway/Freeway (Miles) 0.2 2 36
Driveway (Miles) 0 0 0
Major Road (Miles) 8 12 49
Local (Miles) 6 9 20
Railroad (Miles) 3 1 9
As noted previously, it is also important to consider the combined effect of sea level rise with worsened storm surge. During a 1% annual chance flood, 5 feet of sea level rise would leave around 141 miles of highways and roads, and 23 miles of railway vulnerable to flooding in the County. 75
19.4.3 ENVIRONMENT
Important coastal habitat may be lost as sea level rise permanently inundates areas, or it may be damaged due to extreme tide and storm surge events. Seawater intrusion into freshwater resources may occur, further altering habitat and ecosystems. Protective ecosystem services may be lost as land area and wetlands are permanently inundated.
Monterey County contains many important protected habitats, including the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, the largest marine protected area in the United States, as well as the Elkhorn Slough State National Estuarine Research Reserve, the Moss Landing State Wildlife Area, the Moro Cojo State Marine Reserve, and the Salinas River Dunes Natural Wildlife Refuge.
75 California Climate Change Center, The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the California Coast (May 2009) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-18 CLIMATE CHANGE
The Elkhorn Slough, a unique tidal salt marsh, provides critical habitats for many species, including a large variety of aquatic birds, marine invertebrates, and fish, as well as sea otters, sea lions, and harbor seals. Biodiversity in the Elkhorn Slough is among the highest in the US.
The Moro Cojo Slough and Old Salinas River also provide important habitats for threatened species. This is currently the third largest extent of estuarine marsh in the State, but around 85% is at risk of degradation and could become open water due to sea level rise. Researchers have estimated the slough and the adjacent Moss Landing Harbor area host roughly 5% of the statewide population of sea otters.
76 These areas likely will play an important role in the recovery of the California sea otter population and therefore conservation of this area is particularly important. Beach dunes provide important habitat for many native plants and animals, including the western snowy plover, western fence lizard, beach wild rye, and many more species. Loss of coastal dunes means loss of important habitat for species as well as loss of an important protective buffer.
19.4.4 ECONOMIC IMPACT
Sea level rise will impact the local economy. Tourism is a major economic driver in Monterey County, and future sea level rise could threaten popular beaches and recreational facilities. Sea level rise could affect vertical and lateral beach access points, which would prevent residents and visitors from accessing the beach and may increase the risk of injuries.
Beach tourism is important to the County’ economy and generates significant revenue as many visitors rent hotels or other accommodations, dine out or shop at area stores. Visitor-serving areas such as those on the Monterey Peninsula and in Big Sur include local businesses and hotels that benefit the local economy. These businesses depend on tourism, and cities and communities within the County benefit from sales tax revenues. Disruption of these areas due to impacts of sea level rise could decrease economic activity and affect the local economy.
Future sea level rise in the County may also negatively impact coastal businesses and households and decrease coastal real estate opportunities. Coastal businesses may relocate to other areas rather than face high costs from increased risk to storm surge and costs associated with managed retreat. Local tax revenue may decline as areas that were previously occupied by houses and businesses are permanently inundated.
Sea level rise is also likely to increase the risk of flooding in the lower Salinas Valley. This could lead to the flooding on large swaths of agricultural land and threaten a major economic driver.
Sea level rise in addition to coastal storms and erosion impacts could lead to severe flooding and inundation of economically important infrastructure such as harbors and buildings related to commercial and recreational fisheries.
76 Elkhorn Slough, Technical Report Series
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-19 CLIMATE CHANGE
19.5 RISK ASSESSMENT - HAZARDS OF CONCERN
This section discusses the increased risk posed by specific hazards previously profiled in this plan that were identified as likely to increase in impact due to climate changes. The following sections provide information on how each identified hazard of concern for this planning process may be impacted by climate change and how these impacts may alter current exposure and vulnerability to these hazards for the people, property, critical facilities, and the environment in Monterey County.
19.5.1 AGRICULTURAL EMERGENCIES
The Salinas Valley is identified as one of the most vulnerable agricultural regions under climate change. 77 The amounts, forms, and distribution of precipitation, as well as the increased frequency and intensity of climate extremes, will affect water availability as well as pests, crop yields, and the length of the growing season.
Many weeds, pests, and fungi thrive under warmer temperatures, wetter climates, and increased CO2 levels. The ranges and distribution of weeds and pests are likely to increase with climate change. This could cause new problems for farmers' crops previously unexposed to these species. Plant and livestock diseases are also affected by temperature related climate factors.
78 Warmer temperatures could allow some parasites and pathogens to survive more easily and increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens could thrive. 79 For any particular crop, the effect of increased temperature will depend on the crop’s optimal temperature for growth and reproduction. Many permanent crops are sensitive to small temperature changes during development stages and/or close to harvest. Threshold temperature impacts can affect dairy production and wine grape quality. For example, the yields for wine grapes and strawberries may be reduced due to warm winters. 80 Extreme events, especially floods and droughts, can harm crops and reduce yields. Dealing with drought could become a challenge in areas where rising summer temperatures cause soils to become drier. Heat could also directly threaten livestock. Heat stress affects animals both directly and indirectly. Over time, heat stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk production.
Climate change also has the potential to impact water availability. It may cause farmers to change the crops they plant, affecting water demand and the amount of water they apply.
Adaptation options to shift varieties or locations of production would require significant time
77 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in California Agriculture, California Energy Commission 78 Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources, US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (2008) 79 The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States, US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (2008) 80 Ch. 6: Agriculture. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment , US Global Change Research Program (2014)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-20 CLIMATE CHANGE
and capital investment. Climate change could also impact agriculture in the region by increasing the demand for irrigation to meet higher evaporative processes. Monterey County is highly reliant on groundwater for agricultural operations. As climate change exacerbates drought conditions overdraft of the aquifers is likely to increase. Seawater intrusion is already a major threat to groundwater supply, and this is likely to increase as sea levels rise.
19.5.2 COASTAL EROSION
Sea level rise is likely to increase rates of coastal erosion due to the increase in the frequency, severity, and duration of high tides and wind-driven waves associated with severe storms.
Higher sea level will expose beaches, cliffs, and coastal dunes to more persistent erosional forces. High tides may also coincide with heavy rain exacerbating coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and landslides, such as were experienced during the 1998 and 2016 El Nino storms. 81 Over the next 50 years, sea level rise is predicted to increase coastal erosion 20-25% over historic erosion rates and in the 50-100-year timeframe, erosion rates are projected to increase an additional 40-50% over historic rates. 82
To determine coastal erosion risk, USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center CoSMos shoreline change, and cliff retreat projection data was used. For cliff retreat modeling an end of century (2100) forced sea level rise amount of 200 cm was used. For shoreline change, winter erosion uncertainty modeling was used to capture the degree of uncertainty associated with future shoreline erosion. Hold the Line scenario modeling was chosen for both types of erosion.
Three sea level rise levels (25 cm, 75 cm, and 200 cm) to represent planning horizons based on OPC Sea Level Rise Projections for the Monterey Tide Gauge. 25 cm of sea level rise represents near term (2030) risk, 75 cm represent mid-term (2060) risk, and 200 cm represent long-term (2100) risk. Table 19-7 summarizes coastal erosion risk in Monterey County based on sea level rise scenario and erosion type.
Table 19-7: Population and Property Exposed to Coastal Erosion Risk Table 19-7
Population and Property Exposed to Coastal Erosion Risk in Monterey County Sea Level Rise Scenario/
Erosion Type Population Residential Property Non-Residential Property # Value # Value
Cliff Erosion
Sea Level Rise (25 cm) 1,027 206 $1,183,367,352 226 $221,988,454 Sea Level Rise (75 cm) 1,642 226 $1,244,106,508 227 $223,536,860 Sea Level Rise (200 cm) 1,932 253 $1,323,971,611 248 $240,099,182 Shoreline Erosion
Sea Level Rise (25 cm) 489 4 $3,099,857 24 $196,070,566 Sea Level Rise (75 cm) 213 4 $3,099,857 54 $196,070,566 Sea Level Rise (200 cm) 213 4 $3,099,857 49 $190,008,411
81 Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan 82 Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments, Coastal Regional Sediment Management Plan COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-21 CLIMATE CHANGE
19.5.3 DAM AND LEVEE FAILURE
On average, changes in California’s annual precipitation levels are not expected to be dramatic; however, small changes may have significant impacts for water resource systems, including dams and levees. Dams and levees are designed partly based on assumptions about a river’s flow behavior, expressed as hydrographs. Changes in weather patterns can have significant effects on the hydrograph used for the design of a dam or levee. If the hygrograph changes, it is conceivable that the dam or levee can lose some or all of its designed margin of safety, also known as freeboard. In the case of dams, if freeboard is reduced, dam operators may be forced to release increased volumes earlier in a storm cycle in order to maintain the required margins of safety. Such early releases of increased volumes can increase flood potential downstream.
For levees, a reduction in freeboard caused by a changing hydrograph means that a levee may no longer protect an area against the design-storm standard for which it was originally built (for example 1-%-annual chance). This means that risk to the area that a levee is protecting from inundation will increase. Levee accreditation may be rescinded, resulting in currently protected areas being mapped within a flood hazard area.
Dams are constructed with safety features known as “spillways.” Spillways are put in place on dams as a safety measure in the event of the reservoir filling too quickly. Spillway overflow events, often referred to as “design failures,” result in increased discharges downstream and increased flooding potential. Although climate change will not increase the probability of catastrophic dam failure, it may increase the probability of design failures.
Climate change could lead to increases in flood flows, which would result in that water infrastructure, such as dams, would need to manage flows for which they were not designed.
Climate change may result in the need for increased safety precautions to address higher winter runoff, frequent fluctuations of water levels, and increased potential for sedimentation and debris accumulation from changing erosion patterns and increases in wildfires. Climate change will likely impact the ability of dam operators to estimate extreme flood events.
19.5.4 DROUGHT
With a warmer climate, droughts could become more frequent, more severe, and longer lasting. While climate models tend to differ about future precipitation trends and their magnitudes in California, projections show an increase in extreme dry events and only modest changes in mean precipitation. When combined with increasing temperatures, even minor fluctuations will increase pressure on Monterey County’s water resources, which are already over-stretched by the demands of a growing agriculture economy and population. Existing local surface storage and groundwater recharge will become less reliable and more expensive.
Decreasing snowmelt and spring stream flows coupled with increasing demand for water resulting from both a growing population and hotter climate could lead to increasing water shortages.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-22 CLIMATE CHANGE
Some areas could experience longer, more intense droughts, resulting from higher summer temperatures and reduced precipitation. Reduction in precipitation coupled with heat stress could adversely impact crop production and dry out soils. Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces the amount of quality forage available to grazing livestock. For animals that rely on grain, changes in crop production due to drought could also become a problem. Drought is likely to lead to reduced water supplies, leaving less water available for irrigation when more is needed.
More extreme droughts and higher temperatures will also alter the natural recharge of groundwater and potentially exacerbate groundwater overdraft. Reduced groundwater storage limits the use of groundwater as a backup supply during drought. One of the most persistent water quality problems in the region, the intrusion of salt water into groundwater aquifers and wells, could potentially increase under climate change depending on the implementation of adaptation projects.
19.5.5 EARTHQUAKE
The impacts of global climate change on earthquake probability are unknown. Some scientists say that melting glaciers could induce tectonic activity. As ice melts and water runs off, tremendous amounts of weight are shifted on the earth’s crust. As newly freed crust returns to its original, pre-glacier shape, it could cause seismic plates to slip and stimulate volcanic activity, according to research into prehistoric earthquakes and volcanic activity. NASA and USGS scientists found that retreating glaciers in southern Alaska may be opening the way for future earthquakes. The study found that as glaciers melt, they lighten the load on the Earth's crust. Tectonic plates, which are mobile pieces of the Earth's crust, can then move more freely.
83 Secondary impacts of earthquakes could be magnified by climate change. Soils saturated by repetitive storms or heavy precipitation could experience liquefaction or an increased propensity for slides during seismic activity due to the increased saturation. Dams storing increased volumes of water due to changes in the hydrograph could fail during seismic events.
19.5.6 FLOODING
Scientist’s project greater storm intensity with climate change, resulting in more direct runoff and flooding. High frequency flood events in particular will likely increase with a changing climate. What is currently considered a 1-%-annual-chance flood may also strike more often, leaving many communities at greater risk. Extreme atmospheric river events, the dominant driver of locally extreme rainfall events and associated flooding, are expected to increase under projected climate change.
83 Retreating Glaciers Spur Alaskan Earthquakes, NASA (August 2004) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-23 CLIMATE CHANGE
The amount of snow is critical for water supply and environmental needs, but so is the timing of snowmelt runoff into rivers and streams. Rising snowlines caused by climate change will allow more mountain areas, such as the Sierra Nevada watersheds, to contribute to peak storm runoff. Changes in watershed vegetation and soil moisture conditions will likewise change runoff and recharge patterns. As stream flows and velocities change, erosion patterns will also change, altering channel shapes and depths, possibly increasing sedimentation behind dams, and affecting habitat and water quality. With potential increases in the frequency and intensity of wildfires due to climate change, there is potential for more floods following fire, which increase sediment loads and water quality impacts.
19.5.7 HUMAN CAUSED HAZARDS
Studies have linked high temperatures with increases in intense violence. 84 Increasing evidence
indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence.
85 Large-scale human migration due to resource scarcity, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and other factors is likely to increase with climate change. Populations in communities with worsening conditions may consider moving to better places, provided the costs of migration are affordable. However, sudden climatic changes or natural disasters might lead, in the absence of alternatives, to migration choices which are forced rather than the result of a well-planned process. The exact impact of climate induced migration is uncertain at this time.
More favorable areas are likely to see increases in population, while other areas see dramatic decreases.
19.5.8 PUBLIC HEALTH HAZARDS
Increased temperatures that manifest as heat waves directly harm human health through heat- related illnesses and the exacerbation of pre-existing conditions in vulnerable populations. Heat waves are defined as five days over 79°F to 85°F along the coast and 99°F to 101°F inland.
Coastal areas should expect one more heat wave per year by 2050 and four to eight more per year by 2100. Inland, three to four more heat waves are expected to 2050 and eight to ten more per year in 2100.
86 Some populations in Monterey County are especially vulnerable to the effects of more frequents extreme heat events. Heat waves and prolonged heat days in the
84 Heat and Violence, Craig A. Anderson, Current Directions in Psychological Science (February 2001) 85 Climate Change and Collective Violence, Barry S. Levy, Victor W. Sidel, and Jonathan A. Patz, Annual Review of Public Health (March 2017)
86 Climate Change and Health Profile Report: Monterey County, California Department of Public Health (February 2017)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-24 CLIMATE CHANGE
area would increase the exposure of thousands of outdoor workers to heat related illnesses, including vulnerable populations such as agricultural field workers.
Rising temperatures and more extreme drought events are increasingly associated with an uptick in vector-borne and infectious disease transmission. Climate is one of the factors that influence the distribution of diseases borne by vectors (such as fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes), which spread pathogens that cause illness. The geographic and seasonal distribution of vector populations, and the diseases they can carry, depends not only on climate but also on land use, socioeconomic and cultural factors, pest control, access to health care, and human responses to disease risk, among other factors. Daily, seasonal, or year-to-year climate variability can sometimes result in vector/pathogen adaptation and shifts or expansions in their geographic ranges. Such shifts can alter disease incidence depending on vector-host interaction, host immunity, and pathogen evolution. Additionally, lack of soil moisture due to drought and evaporation from high temperatures increases dust particle concentration, which sometimes house harmful fungal spores and viruses.
87 Cases of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease, are expected to rise with climate change. A newly identified vector-borne disease, Pacific Coast Tick Fever, is spread by Dermacentor occidentalis, which harbors Rickettsia philipii, the causative agent of the disease.
Although still an emerging illness, a few of the human cases originated in the Central Coast.
With Pacific Coast Tick Fever exhibiting a summer trend so far, climate change and increasing temperatures have the potential to extend transmittal season in the Central Coast.
West Nile Virus, a mosquito-borne illness has also made a presence in the Monterey County, though to a much smaller extent than other parts of California. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and a higher frequency of some extreme weather events associated with climate change will influence the distribution, abundance, and prevalence of infection in the mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus and other pathogens by altering habitat availability and mosquito and viral reproduction rates. Alterations in the distribution, abundance, and infection rate of mosquitoes will influence human exposure to bites from infected mosquitoes, which is expected to alter risk for human disease.
The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) has also identified the Central Coast, and Monterey County as a high-risk area for Valley Fever. The illness, transmitted by the Coccidioides immitis fungus, is found in disturbed, dry soil particles that are breathed in. Its symptoms include chest pain, exhaustion, fever, coughing, joint and muscle pain, and difficulty breathing, among other symptoms, and can persist for weeks or even months. In particular, the 2006 Santa Barbara fires, driven to a great extent by high winds, may have exposed some
87 The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment , US Global Change Research Program (2016)
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-25 CLIMATE CHANGE
firefighters to the illness while they engaged in soil disruption and removing vegetation to prevent wildfire spread.
Vector-borne pathogens are expected to emerge or reemerge due to the interactions of climate factors with many other drivers, such as changing land-use patterns. The impacts to human disease, however, will be limited by the adaptive capacity of human populations, such as vector control practices or personal protective measures.
19.5.9 SEVERE WEATHER
Climate change has already increased the number and strength of severe weather events and is likely to continue to increase in prolonged periods of excessively high temperatures, heat waves, extended frost, and severe winter storms. Extreme atmospheric river events, the dominant driver of locally extreme rainfall events and associated flooding, are expected to increase under projected climate change. Climate change impacts on other severe weather events such as thunderstorms and high winds are still not well understood.
19.5.10 SLOPE FAILURE
Climate change may impact storm patterns, increasing the probability of more frequent, intense storms with varying duration. Increase in global temperature is likely to affect the snowpack and its ability to hold and store water. Warming temperatures also could increase the occurrence and duration of droughts, which would increase the probability of wildfire, reducing the vegetation that helps to support steep slopes. All of these factors would increase the probability for landslide occurrences.
The entire County will continue to be at risk for large, intense fires and thus as precipitation extremes increase, the probability also increases that an intense rain event will follow soon after a fire. Many areas of the County not previously in high landslide risk areas, may become increasingly at risk of post-fire debris flows due to increasing wildfire risk.
19.5.11 TSUNAMI
The impacts of global climate change on tsunami probability are unknown. Some scientists say that melting glaciers could induce tectonic activity, inducing earthquakes. Other scientists have indicated that underwater avalanches (also caused by melting glaciers), may also result in tsunamis. Even if climate change does not increase the frequency with which tsunamis occur, it may result in more destructive waves. As sea levels continue to rise, tsunami inundation areas would likely reach further into communities than current mapping indicates.
19.5.12 WILDFIRE
Climate change has the potential to affect multiple elements of the wildfire system: fire behavior, ignitions, fire management, and vegetation fuels. Hot dry spells create the highest fire risk. Increased temperatures may intensify wildfire danger by warming and drying out vegetation. Prediction of fire severity and frequency change in Monterey County is challenging COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 19-26 CLIMATE CHANGE
given the uncertainty in climate predictions of precipitation and wind for the region and the high and complex sensitivity of fire regimes in Mediterranean type Ecosystems to precipitation and climatic water deficits. It is important to recognize, however, that the basic characterization of this system as one that is dominated by fire is unlikely to change, and it is highly likely that that Monterey County will continue to see large, severe fires. Consequently, growing populations and expansion into the WUI will increase vulnerability to fires and projected increases in precipitation intensity during storms may increase post-fire impacts.
Changes in climate patterns may impact the distribution and perseverance of insect outbreaks that create dead trees (increase fuel). When climate alters fuel loads and fuel moisture, forest susceptibility to wildfires changes. Climate change also may increase winds that spread fires.
Faster fires are harder to contain, and thus are more likely to expand into residential neighborhoods.
19.6 ISSUES
The major issues for climate change are the following:
• Planning for climate change related impacts can be difficult due to inherent uncertainties in projection methodologies.
• Average temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the County, which may lead to a host of primary and secondary impacts, such as an increased incidence of heat waves. Expected changes in precipitation patterns are still poorly understood and could have significant impacts on the water supply and flooding in the County. • Increased average temperatures along with changes in precipitation could affect groundwater supplies in the County
• Some impacts of climate change are poorly understood such as potential impacts on the frequency and severity of earthquakes, thunderstorms, and tsunamis. • Heavy rain events may result in inland stormwater flooding after stormwater management systems are overwhelmed.
• Permanent and temporary inundation resulting from sea level rise has the potential to impact significant portions of the population and assets in the County. • A warmer climate will have an impact on the agriculture industry requiring research to better understand future impacts.
• Sea level rise has the potential to have major impacts on tourism industry.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
PART | C
C
PART C: MITIGATION CAPABILITY
AND STRATEGY
THIS PART DESCRIBES THE OVERALL CAPABILITY TO IMPLEMENT HAZARD
MITIGATION ACTIVITIES AND PROVIDES A
VISION FOR FUTURE MITIGATION IN THE
COUNTY. IT CONSISTS OF THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS:
20. CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
21. MITIGATION STRATEGY
22. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PART | C
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-1 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
20. CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Thus far, the planning process has identified the hazards posing a threat to Monterey County and described, in general, the vulnerability of the County to these risks. The next step is to assess what loss prevention mechanisms are already in place, through the completion of a hazard mitigation Capability Assessment. The Capability Assessment helps determine the ability of a local jurisdiction to implement a comprehensive mitigation strategy, and to identify potential opportunities for establishing or enhancing specific mitigation policies, programs, or projects. As in any planning process, it is important to try to establish which goals and actions are feasible, based on an understanding of the organizational capacity of the agencies or departments tasked with their implementation.
The Capability Assessment is an important tool in determining which mitigation actions are practical and likely to be implemented over time based on a local government’s existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources available to support such implementation. The combination of the hazard Risk Assessment with the mitigation Capability Assessment results in the County’s net vulnerability to disasters, and more accurately focuses the goals, objectives, and proposed actions of this Plan. The Capability Assessment had three primary components:
1. An analysis of federal and state laws, ordinances, plans and programs that can support or impact hazard mitigation actions
2. An inventory of a jurisdiction’s plans, ordinances, programs, technical studies, or activities already in place and their relevancy to hazard mitigation
3. An analysis of a jurisdiction’s current capacity and resources to carry out relevant plans, ordinances, programs, or activities related to hazard mitigation
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-2 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
A careful examination of local capabilities will detect any existing gaps, shortfalls, or weaknesses associated with ongoing government activities that could hinder proposed mitigation activities and possibly even exacerbate hazard vulnerability. The Capability Assessment also highlights the positive mitigation measures already in place or being implemented at the local government level, which should be leveraged and continue to be supported and enhanced, if possible, through future mitigation efforts.
The Capability Assessment serves as a critical part of the planning process and helps identify and target meaningful mitigation actions for incorporation into the Mitigation Strategy. It helps establish both the countywide and jurisdiction-specific mitigation goals and ensures that those goals and the mitigation actions that follow are realistically achievable given current local conditions.
20.1 INCORPORATION OF EXISTING PLANS, STUDIES,
REPORTS, AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Existing laws, ordinances, plans and programs at the federal, state, and local level can support or impact hazard mitigation actions identified in this plan. Hazard mitigation plans are required to include a review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information as part of the planning process (44 CFR, Section 201.6(b)(3)). The following federal and state programs have been identified as programs that may interface with the actions identified in this plan. Each program enhances capabilities to implement mitigation actions or has a nexus with a mitigation action in this plan. Information presented in this section can be used in review local capabilities to implement the actions found in the jurisdictional annexes of Volume 2.
Each planning partner has individually reviewed existing local plans, studies, reports, and technical information in its jurisdictional annex. The Local process is described in Section 20.2 Local Capability Assessment and individual jurisdiction results are presented in Volume 2.
20.1.1 FEDERAL
Disaster Mitigation Act
The DMA is the current federal legislation addressing hazard mitigation planning. It emphasizes planning for disasters before they occur. It specifically addresses planning at the local level, requiring plans to be in place before Hazard Mitigation Assistance grant funds are available to communities. This plan is designed to meet the requirements of DMA, improving eligibility for future hazard mitigation funds.
National Incident Management System
The National Incident Management System (NIMS) is a systematic approach for government, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to work together to manage incidents involving hazards. The NIMS provides a flexible but standardized set of incident management COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-3 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
practices. Incidents typically begin and end locally, and they are managed at the lowest possible geographical, organizational, and jurisdictional level. In some cases, success depends on the involvement of multiple jurisdictions, levels of government, functional agencies, and emergency responder disciplines. These cases necessitate coordination across a spectrum of organizations.
Communities using NIMS follow a comprehensive national approach that improves the effectiveness of emergency management and response personnel across the full spectrum of potential hazards (including natural hazards, terrorist activities, and other human-caused disasters) regardless of size or complexity. Although participation is voluntary, Federal departments and agencies are required to make adoption of NIMS by local and state jurisdictions a condition to receive Federal Preparedness grants and awards.
Community Development Block Grant Disaster Resilience Program In response to disasters, Congress may appropriate additional funding for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development Community Development Block Grant programs to be distributed as Disaster Recovery grants (CDBG-DR). These grants can be used to rebuild affected areas and provide seed money to start the recovery process. CDBG-DR assistance may fund a broad range of recovery activities, helping communities that otherwise might not recover due to limited resources. CDBG-DR grants often supplement disaster programs of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Small Business Administration, and the US Army Corps.
Housing and Urban Development generally awards noncompetitive, nonrecurring CDBG-DR grants by a formula that considers disaster recovery needs unmet by other disaster assistance programs. CDGB-DR funding is a potential alternative source of funding for actions identified in this plan.
To be eligible for CDBG-DR funds, projects must meet the following criteria:
• Address a disaster-related impact (direct or indirect) in a presidentially declared county for the covered disaster
• Be a CDBG-eligible activity (according to regulations and waivers) • Meet a national objective. Incorporating preparedness and mitigation into these actions is encouraged, as the goal is to rebuild in ways that are safer and stronger.
Emergency Watershed Program
The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) administers the Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) Program, which responds to emergencies created by natural disasters. Eligibility for assistance is not dependent on a national emergency declaration. The program is designed to help people and conserve natural resources by relieving imminent hazards to life and property caused by floods, fires, windstorms, and other natural occurrences.
EWP is an emergency recovery program. This federal program could be a possible funding source for actions identified in this plan.
Financial and technical assistance are available for the following activities:
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-4 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Removing debris from stream channels, road culverts, and bridges • Reshaping and protect eroded banks
• Correcting damaged drainage facilities
• Establishing cover on critically eroding lands
• Repairing levees and structures
• Repairing conservation practices
Emergency Relief for Federally Owned Roads Program
The US Forest Service’s Emergency Relief for Federally Owned Roads Program was established to assist federal agencies with repair or reconstruction of tribal transportation facilities, federal lands transportation facilities, and other federally owned roads that are open to public travel and have suffered serious damage by a natural disaster over a wide area or by a catastrophic failure. The program funds both emergency and permanent repairs. Eligible activities under this program meet some of the goals and objectives for this plan and the program is a possible funding source for actions identified in this plan.
National Flood Insurance Program
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) provides federally backed flood insurance in exchange for communities enacting floodplain regulations. Participation and good standing under NFIP are prerequisites to grant funding eligibility under the Robert T. Stafford Act.
Monterey County and all of the municipal planning partners participate in the NFIP and have adopted regulations that meet the NFIP requirements. At the time of the preparation of this plan, all participating jurisdictions were in good standing with NFIP requirements. Full compliance and good standing under the NFIP are application prerequisites for all FEMA grant programs for which participating jurisdictions are eligible under this plan.
Presidential Executive Orders 11988 and 13690
Executive Order 11988 requires federal agencies to avoid to the extent possible the long and short-term adverse impacts associated with the occupancy and modification of floodplains and to avoid direct and indirect support of floodplain development wherever there is a practicable alternative. It requires federal agencies to provide leadership and take action to reduce the risk of flood loss, minimize the impact of floods on human safety, health, and welfare, and restore and preserve the natural and beneficial values of floodplains. The requirements apply to the following activities:
• Acquiring, managing, and disposing of federal lands and facilities • Providing federally undertaken, financed, or assisted construction and improvements • Conducting federal activities and programs affecting land use, including but not limited to water and related land resources planning, regulation, and licensing.
Executive Order 13690 expands Executive Order 11988 and acknowledges that the impacts of flooding are anticipated to increase over time due to the effects of climate change and other threats. It mandates a federal flood risk management standard to increase resilience against COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-5 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
flooding and help preserve the natural values of floodplains. This standard expands management of flood issues from the current base flood level to a higher vertical elevation and corresponding horizontal floodplain. The goal is to address current and future flood risk and ensure that projects funded with taxpayer dollars last as long as intended.
All actions identified in this plan will seek full compliance with all applicable presidential executive orders.
The Clean Water Act
The federal Clean Water Act (CWA) employs regulatory and non-regulatory tools to reduce direct pollutant discharges into waterways, finance municipal wastewater treatment facilities, and manage polluted runoff. These tools are employed to achieve the broader goal of restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical, and biological integrity of the nation’s surface waters so that they can support “the protection and propagation of fish, shellfish, and wildlife and recreation in and on the water.”
Evolution of CWA programs over the last decade has included a shift from a program-by- program, source-by-source, and pollutant-by-pollutant approach to more holistic watershed- based strategies. Under the watershed approach, equal emphasis is placed on protecting healthy waters and restoring impaired ones. A full array of issues is addressed, not just those subject to CWA regulatory authority. Involvement of stakeholder groups in the development and implementation of strategies for achieving and maintaining water quality and other environmental goals is a hallmark of this approach.
The CWA is important to hazard mitigation in several ways. There are often permitting requirements for any construction within 200 feet of water of the United States, which may have implications for mitigation projects identified by a local jurisdiction. Additionally, CWA requirements apply to wetlands, which serve important functions related to preserving and protecting the natural and beneficial functions of floodplains and are linked with a community’s floodplain management program.
Finally, the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System is part of the CWA and addresses local stormwater management programs. Stormwater management plays a critical role in hazard mitigation by addressing urban drainage or localized flooding issues within jurisdictions.
FEMA hazard mitigation project grant applications require full compliance with applicable federal acts. Any action identified in this plan that falls within the scope of this act will need to meet its requirements.
Presidential Executive Order 11990
Executive Order 11990 requires federal agencies to provide leadership and take action to minimize the destruction, loss, or degradation of wetlands, and to preserve and enhance the natural and beneficial values of wetlands. The requirements apply to the following activities:
• Acquiring, managing, and disposing of federal lands and facilities COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-6 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Providing federally undertaken, financed, or assisted construction and improvements • Conducting federal activities and programs affecting land use, including but not limited to water and related land resources planning, regulation, and licensing.
All actions identified in this plan will seek full compliance with all applicable presidential executive orders.
Endangered Species Act
The federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) was enacted in 1973 to conserve species facing depletion or extinction and the ecosystems that support them. The act sets forth a process for determining which species are threatened and endangered and requires the conservation of the critical habitat in which those species live. The ESA provides broad protection for species of fish, wildlife and plants that are listed as threatened or endangered.
Provisions are made for listing species, as well as for recovery plans and the designation of critical habitat for listed species. The ESA outlines procedures for federal agencies to follow when taking actions that may jeopardize listed species and contains exceptions and exemptions. It is the enabling legislation for the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora. Criminal and civil penalties are provided for violations of the ESA and the Convention. Federal agencies must seek to conserve endangered and threatened species and use their authorities in furtherance of the ESA’s purposes.
The ESA defines three fundamental terms:
• Endangered means that a species of fish, animal or plant is “in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range.” (For salmon and other vertebrate species, this may include subspecies and distinct population segments.) • Threatened means that a species “is likely to become endangered within the foreseeable future.” Regulations may be less restrictive for threatened species than for endangered species.
• Critical habitat means “specific geographic areas that are essential for the conservation and management of a listed species, whether occupied by the species or not.” FEMA hazard mitigation project grant applications require full compliance with applicable federal acts. Any action identified in this plan that falls within the scope of this act will need to meet its requirements.
National Environmental Policy Act
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to consider the environmental impacts of proposed actions and reasonable alternatives to those actions, alongside technical and economic considerations. NEPA established the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), whose regulations (40 CFR Parts 1500-1508) set standards for NEPA compliance. Consideration and decision-making regarding environmental impacts must be documented in an environmental impact statement or environmental assessment.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-7 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Environmental impact assessment requires the evaluation of reasonable alternatives to a proposed action, solicitation of input from organizations and individuals that could be affected, and an unbiased presentation of direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts. FEMA hazard mitigation project grant applications require full compliance with applicable federal acts.
Any action identified in this plan that falls within the scope of this act will need to meet its requirements.
Americans with Disabilities Act
The Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) seeks to prevent discrimination against people with disabilities in employment, transportation, public accommodation, communications, and government activities. Title II of the ADA deals with compliance with the Act in emergency management and disaster-related programs, services, and activities. It applies to state and local governments as well as third parties, including religious entities and private nonprofit organizations.
The ADA has implications for sheltering requirements and public notifications. During an emergency alert, officials must use a combination of warning methods to ensure that all residents have all necessary information. Those with hearing impairments may not hear radio, television, sirens, or other audible alerts, while those with visual impairments may not see flashing lights or other visual alerts. Two technical documents for shelter operators address physical accessibility needs of people with disabilities, as well as medical needs and service animals. The ADA intersects with disaster preparedness programs in regard to transportation, social services, temporary housing, and rebuilding. Persons with disabilities may require additional assistance in evacuation and transit (e.g., vehicles with wheelchair lifts or paratransit buses).
Evacuation and other response plans should address the unique needs of residents. Local governments may be interested in implementing a special-needs registry to identify the home addresses, contact information, and needs for residents who may require more assistance.
FEMA hazard mitigation project grant applications require full compliance with applicable federal acts. Any action identified in this plan that falls within the scope of this act will need to meet its requirements.
Civil Rights Act of 1964
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or nation origin and requires equal access to public places and employment. The Act is relevant to emergency management and hazard mitigation in that it prohibits local governments from favoring the needs of one population group over another. Local government and emergency response must ensure the continued safety and well-being of all residents equally, to the extent possible. FEMA hazard mitigation project grant applications require full compliance with applicable federal acts. Any action identified in this plan that falls within the scope of this act will need to meet its requirements.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-8 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Army Corps of Engineers Programs
The US Army Corps of Engineers has several civil works authorities and programs related to flood risk and flood hazard management. The Floodplain Management Services program offers 100-% federally funded technical services such as development and interpretation of site- specific data related to the extent, duration, and frequency of flooding. Special studies may be conducted to help a community understand and respond to flood risk. These may include flood hazard evaluation, flood warning and preparedness, or flood modeling.
For more extensive studies, the Army Corps offers a cost-shared program called Planning Assistance to States and Tribes. Studies under this program generally range from $25,000 to $100,000 with the local jurisdiction providing 50% of the cost. The Army Corps has several cost- shared programs (typically 65% federal and 35% non-federal) aimed at developing, evaluating, and implementing structural and non-structural capital projects to address flood risks at specific locations or within a specific watershed, including:
• The Continuing Authorities Program for smaller-scale projects includes Section 205 for Flood Control, with a $7 million federal limit and Section 14 for Emergency Streambank Protection with a $1.5 million federal limit. These can be implemented without specific authorization from Congress.
• Larger scale studies, referred to as General Investigations, and projects for flood risk management, for ecosystem restoration or to address other water resource issues, can be pursued through a specific authorization from Congress and are cost-shared, typically at 65% federal and 35% nonfederal.
• Watershed management planning studies can be specifically authorized and are cost- shared at 50% federal and 50% non-federal.
The Army Corps also provides emergency response assistance during and following natural disasters. Public Law 84-99 enables the Corps to assist state and local authorities in flood fight activities and cost share in the repair of flood protective structures. The Flood Control and Coastal Emergency Act establishes an emergency fund for preparedness for emergency response to natural disasters; for flood fighting and rescue operations; for rehabilitation of flood control and hurricane protection structures. Funding for the Army Corps emergency response under this authority is provided by Congress through the annual Energy and Water Development Appropriation Act. Disaster preparedness activities include coordination, planning, training and conduct of response exercises with local, state, and federal agencies.
Under PL 84-99, the Army Corps can supplement state and local entities in flood fighting urban and other non-agricultural areas under certain conditions (Engineering Regulation 500-1-1 provides specific details). All flood fight efforts require a project cooperation agreement signed by the public sponsor and the sponsor must remove all flood fight material after the flood has receded. PL 84-99 also authorizes emergency water support and drought assistance in certain COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-9 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
situations and allows for “advance measures” assistance to prevent or reduce flood damage conditions of imminent threat of unusual flooding.
Under PL 84-99, an eligible flood protection system can be rehabilitated if damaged by a flood event. The flood system would be restored to its pre-disaster status at no cost to the federal system owner, and at 20% cost to the eligible non-federal system owner. All systems considered eligible for PL 84-99 rehabilitation assistance have to be in the Rehabilitation and Inspection Program prior to the flood event. Acceptable operation and maintenance by the public levee sponsor are verified by levee inspections conducted by the Corps on a regular basis. The Corps has the responsibility to coordinate levee repair issues with interested federal, state, and local agencies following natural disaster events where flood control works are damaged. All of these authorities and programs are available to the planning partners to support any intersecting mitigation actions.
20.1.2 STATE
Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act
The Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act was enacted in 1972 to mitigate the hazard of surface faulting to structures for human occupancy. The Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Acts main purpose is to prevent construction of buildings used for human occupancy on the surface trace of active faults. Before a new project is permitted, cities and counties require a geologic investigation to demonstrate that proposed buildings will not be constructed on active faults. The act addresses only the hazard of surface fault rupture and is not directed toward other earthquake hazards, such as liquefaction or seismically induced landslides.
The law requires the State of California Geologist to establish regulatory zones around the surface traces of active faults and to issue appropriate maps. The maps are distributed to all affected cities, counties, and state agencies for their use in planning and controlling new or renewed construction. Local agencies must regulate most development projects within the zones. Projects include all land divisions and most structures for human occupancy. All seismic hazard mitigation actions identified in this plan will seek full compliance with the Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act.
California General Planning Law
California state law requires that every county and city prepare and adopt a comprehensive long-range plan to serve as a guide for community development. The general plan expresses the community’s goals, visions, and policies relative to future land uses, both public and private. The general plan is mandated and prescribed by state law (Cal. Gov. Code §65300 et seq.) and forms the basis for most local government land use decision-making.
The plan must consist of an integrated and internally consistent set of goals, policies, and implementation measures. In addition, the plan must focus on issues of the greatest concern to the community and be written in a clear and concise manner. City and county actions, such as those relating to land use allocations, annexations, zoning, subdivision and design review, COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-10 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
redevelopment, and capital improvements, must be consistent with the plan. All municipal planning partners to this plan have general plans that are currently compliant with this law and have committed to integrating this mitigation plan with their general plans through provisions referenced below (AB-2140 and SB-379).
California Environmental Quality Act
The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) was passed in 1970, shortly after the federal government enacted the National Environmental Policy Act, to institute a statewide policy of environmental protection. CEQA requires state and local agencies in California to follow a protocol of analysis and public disclosure of the potential environmental impacts of development projects. CEQA makes environmental protection a mandatory part of every California state and local agency’s decision-making process.
CEQA establishes a statewide environmental policy and mandates actions all state and local agencies must take to advance the policy. Jurisdictions conduct analysis of the project to determine if there are potentially significant environmental impacts, identify mitigation measures, and possible project alternatives by preparing environmental reports for projects that requires CEQA review. This environmental review is required before an agency acts on any policy, program, or project.
Monterey County has determined that this plan update is categorically exempt from the formal CEQA protocol. The County will initiate the formal CEQA protocol on any project recommended in this plan that requires adherence to this protocol at the initiation of the project. Any project action identified in this plan will seek full CEQA compliance upon implementation.
California Disaster Assistance Act
The California Disaster Assistance Act (CDAA) authorizes the Director of the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) to administer a disaster assistance program that provides financial assistance from the state for costs incurred by local governments as a result of a disaster event. Funding for the repair, restoration, or replacement of public real property damaged or destroyed by a disaster is made available when the Director concurs with a local emergency proclamation requesting state disaster assistance.
The program also provides for the reimbursement of local government costs associated with certain emergency activities undertaken in response to a state of emergency proclaimed by the Governor. In addition, the program may provide matching fund assistance for cost sharing required under federal public assistance programs in response to a Presidential Major Disaster or Emergency Declaration. The implementing regulations for CDAA can be found in Title 19 of the California Code of Regulations, Chapter 6.
Assembly Bill 162: Flood Planning
This California State Assembly Bill passed in 2007 requires cities and counties to address flood- related matters in the land use, conservation, and safety and housing elements of their general plans. The land use element must identify and annually review the areas covered by the general COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-11 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
plan that are subject to flooding as identified in floodplain mapping by either FEMA or the state Department of Water Resources (DWR). During the next revision of the housing element on or after January 1, 2009, the conservation element of the general plan must identify rivers, creeks, streams, flood corridors, riparian habitat, and land that may accommodate floodwater for the purpose of groundwater recharge and stormwater management.
The safety element must identify information regarding flood hazards, including:
• Flood hazard zones
• Maps published by FEMA, DWR, the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Central Valley Flood Protection Board, and the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) • Historical data on flooding
• Existing and planned development in flood hazard zones The general plan must establish goals, policies, and objectives to protect from unreasonable flooding risks, including:
• Avoiding or minimizing the risks of flooding new development • Evaluating whether new development should be located in flood hazard zones • Identifying construction methods to minimize damage
AB 162 establishes goals, policies, and objectives to protect from unreasonable flooding risks. It establishes procedures for the determination of available land suitable for urban development, which may exclude lands where FEMA or DWR has concluded that the flood management infrastructure is not adequate to avoid the risk of flooding.
Assembly Bill 2140: General Plans—Safety Element
This bill provides that the state may allow for more than 75% of public assistance funding under the California Disaster Assistance Act only if the local agency is in a jurisdiction that has adopted a local hazard mitigation plan as part of the safety element of its general plan. The local hazard mitigation plan needs to include elements specified in this legislation. In addition, this bill requires Cal OES to give preference for federal mitigation funding to cities and counties that have adopted local hazard mitigation plans. The intent of the bill is to encourage cities and counties to create and adopt hazard mitigation plans.
Assembly Bill 70: Flood Liability
This bill provides that a city or county may be required to contribute a fair and reasonable share to compensate for property damage caused by a flood to the extent that it has increased the state’s exposure to liability for property damage by unreasonably approving new development in a previously undeveloped area that is protected by a state flood control project, unless the city or county meets specified requirements.
Assembly Bill 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act This bill identifies the following potential adverse impacts of global warming:
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-12 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Exacerbation of air quality problems
• Reduction in the quality and supply of water to the state from the Sierra snowpack • A rise in sea levels resulting in the displacement of thousands of coastal businesses and residences, damage to marine ecosystems and the natural environment • An increase in the incidences of infectious diseases, asthma, and other human health- related problems
AB 32 establishes a state goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 (a reduction of approximately 25% from forecast emission levels), with further reductions to follow. The law requires the state Air Resources Board to establish a program to track and report greenhouse gas emissions, approve a scoping plan for achieving the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective reductions from sources of greenhouse gas emissions, adopt early reduction measures to begin moving forward, and adopt, implement, and enforce regulations, including market mechanisms such as “cap and-trade” programs, to ensure that the required reductions occur. The Air Resources Board has adopted a statewide greenhouse gas emissions limit and an emissions inventory, along with requirements to measure, track, and report greenhouse gas emissions by the industries it determined to be significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions.
Senate Bill 97: Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Senate Bill 97, enacted in 2007, amends CEQA to clearly establish that greenhouse gas emissions and the effects of greenhouse gas emissions are appropriate subjects for CEQA analysis. It directs the Governor’s Office of Planning and Research to develop draft CEQA guidelines for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions or their effects by July 2009 and directs the California Natural Resources Agency to certify and adopt the CEQA Guidelines by January 1, 2010.
Senate Bill 1241: General Plans: Safety Element—Fire Hazard Impacts In 2012, Senate Bill 1241 was enacted, requiring that all future General Plans address fire risk in state responsibility areas and very high fire hazard severity zones in their safety element. In addition, the bill requires cities and counties to make certain findings regarding available fire protection and suppression services before approving a tentative map or parcel map.
Senate Bill 1000: General Plan Amendments—Safety and Environmental Justice Elements In 2016, Senate Bill 1000 amended California’s Planning and Zoning Law in two ways. The original law established requirements for initial revisions of general plan safety elements to address flooding, fire, and climate adaptation and resilience. It also required subsequent review and revision as necessary based on new information. Senate Bill 1000 specifies that the subsequent reviews and revision based on new information are required to address only flooding and fires (not climate adaptation and resilience).
Additionally, Senate Bill 1000 adds a requirement that, upon adoption or revision of any two other general plan elements on or after January 1, 2018, an environmental justice element be COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-13 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
adopted for the general plan or environmental justice goals, policies and objectives be incorporated into other elements of the plan.
Senate Bill 379: General Plans: Safety Element—Climate Adaptation Senate Bill 379 builds upon the flood planning inclusions into the safety and housing elements and the hazard mitigation planning safety element inclusions in general plans outlined in AB 162 and AB 2140, respectively. SB 379 focuses on a new requirement that cities and counties include climate adaptation and resiliency strategies in the safety element of their general plans beginning January 1, 2017. In addition, this bill requires general plans to include a set of goals, policies and objectives, and specified implementation measures based on the conclusions drawn from climate adaptation research and recommendations.
This update process for this hazard mitigation plan was conducted with the intention of full compliance with this bill. However, at the time of the update, there was no clear guidance from the state on what constitutes full compliance or what protocol is to be used to determine compliance. When such guidance has been established, the planning partners will submit this plan or its subsequent updates to the state for review and approval.
California State Building Code California Code of Regulations Title 24 (CCR Title 24), also known as the California Building Standards Code, is a compilation of building standards from three sources:
• Building standards that have been adopted by state agencies without change from building standards contained in national model codes
• Building standards that have been adopted and adapted from the national model code standards to meet California conditions
• Building standards authorized by the California legislature that constitute extensive additions not covered by the model codes adopted to address particular California concerns.
The state Building Standards Commission is authorized by California Building Standards Law (Health and Safety Code Sections 18901 through 18949.6) to administer the processes related to the adoption, approval, publication, and implementation of California’s building codes. These building codes serve as the basis for the design and construction of buildings in California. The national model code standards adopted into Title 24 apply to all occupancies in California, except for modifications adopted by state agencies and local governing bodies. Since 1989, the Building Standards Commission has published new editions of Title 24 every three years.
Standardized Emergency Management System
CCR Title 19 establishes the Standardized Emergency Management System (SEMS) to standardize the response to emergencies involving multiple jurisdictions. SEMS is intended to be flexible and adaptable to the needs of all emergency responders in California. It requires emergency response agencies to use basic principles and components of emergency COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-14 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
management. Local governments must use SEMS by December 1, 1996, to be eligible for state funding of response-related personnel costs under CCR Title 19 (Sections 2920, 2925 and 2930).
The roles and responsibilities of Individual agencies contained in existing laws, or the state emergency plan are not superseded by these regulations. This hazard mitigation plan is considered to be a support document for all phases of emergency management, including those associated with SEMS.
State of California State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) Under the DMA, California must adopt a federally approved state multi-hazard mitigation plan to be eligible for certain disaster assistance and mitigation funding. The intent of the State of California Hazard Mitigation Plan is to reduce or prevent injury and damage from hazards in the state through the following:
• Documenting statewide hazard mitigation planning in California • Describing strategies and priorities for future mitigation activities • Facilitating the integration of local and tribal hazard mitigation planning activities into statewide efforts
• Meeting state and federal statutory and regulatory requirements The plan is an annex to the State Emergency Plan, and it identifies past and present mitigation activities, current policies and programs, and mitigation strategies for the future. It also establishes hazard mitigation goals and objectives. The plan will be reviewed and updated annually to reflect changing conditions and new information, especially information on local planning activities. Under 44 CFR Section 201.6, local hazard mitigation plans must be consistent with their state’s hazard mitigation plan. In updating this plan, the Steering Committee reviewed the California State Hazard Mitigation Plan to identify key relevant state plan elements.
California Adaptation Planning Guide
The California Adaptation Planning Guide (APG), updated in 2020, is designed to support local government, regional organizations, and climate collaborative groups to integrate best practices and current science into their adaptation planning efforts. The APG provides helpful resources to local governments as they comply with state requirements for local adaptation planning and provides recommendations and advice on community-level climate change adaptation planning.
Safeguarding California Plan
The Safeguarding California Plan– California’s Climate Adaptation Strategy was updated in 2018. The update is the State’s roadmap for the strategies that will be used by state agencies to protect communities, infrastructure, services, and the natural environment from climate change impacts. This holistic strategy primarily covers state agencies’ programmatic and policy responses across different policy areas, but it also discusses the ongoing related work to with coordinated local and regional adaptation action and developments in climate impact science.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-15 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
California Coastal Act
The California Coastal Act is umbrella legislation designed to encourage each city or county lying wholly or partly within the coastal zone to create Local Coastal Programs (LCPs) to govern decisions that determine the short- and long-term conservation and use of coastal resources.
These LCPs can be thought of as the equivalent of General Plans for areas within the Coastal Zone. The specific contents of such plans are not specified by state law, but they must be certified by the Coastal Commission as consistent with policies of the Coastal Act (Public Resources Code, Division 20). Until the Coastal Commission certifies an LCP, the Commission makes the final decisions on all development within a jurisdiction (city or county) within the Coastal Zone. Once an LCP is certified for a jurisdiction, decisions are handled locally, but can be appealed to the Commission.
Section 30253(1) of the Coastal Act states that new development shall minimize risks to life and property in areas of high geologic, flood, and fire hazard. Development should be prevented or limited in high hazard areas whenever possible. However, where development cannot be prevented or limited, land use density, building value, and occupancy should be kept at a minimum. Additionally, the Coastal Act has provisions relating to geologic hazards but does not mention tsunamis specifically.
There are identified coastal zones in Monterey County and affected planning partners have developed local coastal plans to address them. Any mitigation project identified in this plan that intersects the mapped coastal zone will be consistent with the recommendations of the local coastal plan.
Governor’s Executive Order S-13-08
Governor’s Executive Order S-13-08 enhances the state’s management of climate impacts from sea level rise, increased temperatures, shifting precipitation and extreme weather events.
There are four key actions in the executive order:
• Initiate California’s first statewide climate change adaptation strategy to assess expected climate change impacts, identify where California is most vulnerable, and recommend adaptation policies. This effort will improve coordination within state government so that better planning can more effectively address climate impacts on human health, the environment, the state’s water supply and the economy. • Request that the National Academy of Science establish an expert panel to report on sea level rise impacts in California, to inform state planning and development efforts. • Issue interim guidance to state agencies for how to plan for sea level rise in designated coastal and floodplain areas for new projects.
• Initiate a report on critical infrastructure projects vulnerable to sea level rise.
Senate Bill 99 General Plans: Safety Element: Emergency Evacuation Routes SB 99 requires that, upon the next revision of the housing element on or after January 1, 2020, local governments to review and update the safety element of their General Plan to include COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-16 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
information identifying residential developments in hazard areas that do not have at least 2 emergency evacuation routes.
Assembly Bill 747 Planning and Zoning: General Plan: Safety Element AB 747 requires, that upon the next revision of a local hazard mitigation plan on or after January 1, 2022, the safety element to be reviewed and updated as necessary to identify evacuation routes and their capacity, safety, and viability under a range of emergency scenarios. The bill authorizes a city or county that has adopted a local hazard mitigation plan, emergency operations plan, or other document that fulfills commensurate goals and objectives to use that information in the safety element to comply with this requirement by summarizing and incorporating by reference that other plan or document in the safety element.
Strategic Fire Plan for California
The Strategic Fire Plan for California is the state's road map for reducing the risk of wildfire. The Fire Plan is a cooperative effort between the State Board of Forestry and Fire Protection and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The 2018 update reflects a focus on (1) fire prevention and suppression activities to protect lives, property, and ecosystem services, and (2) natural resource management to maintain the state’s forests as a resilient carbon sink to meet California’s climate change goals and to serve as important habitat for adaptation and mitigation. By placing the emphasis on what needs to be done long before a fire starts, the Strategic Fire Plan looks to reduce firefighting costs and property losses, increase firefighter safety, and contribute to overall ecosystem health.
Fire Hazard Planning: General Plan Technical Advice Series CA Governor's Office of Planning and Research (OPR) Fire Hazard Planning technical advisory provides guidance on those policies and programs and is also intended to assist city and county planners in discussions with professionals from fire hazard prevention and mitigation, disaster preparedness, and emergency response and recovery agencies as they work together to develop effective fire hazard policies for the general plan. The 2020 update includes specific land use strategies to reduce fire risk to buildings, infrastructure, and communities and was prepared in consultation with the Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, the State Board of Forestry and Fire Protection, and other fire and safety experts.
20.2 LOCAL CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
In order to facilitate the inventory and analysis of participating jurisdictions capabilities, several survey instruments were distributed and discussed with staff from each jurisdiction planning team during the jurisdiction-specific planning meetings. The surveys included a Safe Growth Survey, a National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Survey, and a Capability Assessment Survey, each of which was completed by the appropriate staff member as determined by Local Jurisdiction Leads. Each of these three survey instruments is described below and summarized, if possible, in aggregate.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-17 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Details are provided in each respective jurisdiction annex in Volume 2. Full copies of completed surveys are available upon request.
20.3 SAFE GROWTH SURVEY
The Safe Growth Survey is a survey instrument adapted from a technique 88 recommended by organizations such as the American Planning Association (APA) and FEMA. 89 The Safe Growth Survey helped evaluate the extent to which each local jurisdiction in Monterey County is positioned to grow safely relative to its natural hazards. The survey consists of nine distinct topic areas, including:
• Land Use • Public Safety • Capital Improvements
• Transportation • Zoning • Building Codes
• Environmental Management • Subdivision Regulations • Economic Development
The Safe Growth Survey was completed by appropriate planning, zoning, and/or community development staff for each participating municipal jurisdiction. This information is not provided for participating special districts since they do not regulate land use and development.
While a somewhat subjective exercise, the Safe Growth Survey was used to provide some quantitative measures of how adequately existing planning mechanisms and tools are being used to address the notion of safe growth. The goal of the survey was to further integrate the subject of hazard risk management into the dialogue of local planners. The survey assisted in gaining an understanding of how an individual jurisdiction’s various comprehensive plans, capital improvement plans, and zoning and subdivision ordinances may allow growth in hazardous areas. This understanding helps identify how these documents can be amended to guide growth to safe locations and assisted in identifying new mitigation actions as they relate to planning policies or programs already in place and to future growth and community development practices.
The Safe Growth Survey was used as part of the 2013-2014 MJHMP Plan update, which allowed the survey results to be compared over time, in order to measure progress. It is anticipated that the Safe Growth Survey will be used again during future plan updates to continue to measure progress over time.
Safe Growth Survey Results
The Safe Growth Survey included a number of statements for each topic area listed above.
Statements were answered on a scale from 1 to 5 based on the degree to which the respondent agreed or disagreed with the statement as it related to the respective jurisdiction’s current plans, policies, and programs for guiding future community growth and development. Scores
88 Safe Growth Audits, David R. Godschalk, FAICP (October 2009) 89 Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, Worksheet 4.2: Safe Growth Audit, FEMA (March 2013) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-18 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
for each statement were averaged by topic area to provide a topic area score and the topic area scores were averaged to provide an overall survey score.
Results were averaged for all participating jurisdictions and are presented in aggregate in Table 20-1. Individual jurisdiction results are presented in Volume 2 for each jurisdiction in their respective Annex, in the Land Use & Development Trends Section.
Table 20-1: Countywide Safe Growth Survey Results
Table 20-1
Countywide Safe Growth Survey Results
Topic Area 2021 2016
Land Use 3.67 3.79
Transportation 3.59 3.49
Environmental Management 4.13 3.76
Public Safety 3.56 3.77
Zoning Ordinance 3.48 3.53
Subdivision Regulations 2.90 3.12
Capital Improvement Program & Infrastructure Policies 3.28 2.97 Building Code 4.31 4.50
Economic Development 3.54 3.38
Average Survey Ratings 3.61 3.59
20.4 NFIP SURVEY
Per 44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(3)(ii), the Plan must address a jurisdiction's participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), and continued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate. It should be noted that Special Districts are not eligible for flood insurance under the NFIP. The NFIP contains specific regulatory measures that enable government officials to determine where and how growth occurs relative to identified flood hazards. In return for meeting minimum regulatory standards, communities may purchase flood insurance through the NFIP. Participation in the NFIP is voluntary but is promoted by FEMA as a critical means to make flood insurance available to community residents and to implement and sustain an effective, long-term hazard mitigation program aimed at reducing future flood losses.
The NFIP Survey was designed to help gather information from each jurisdiction on the current status of their participation in the NFIP, including existing floodplain management programs and continued compliance with federal requirements and standards. The NFIP Survey, adapted from the FEMA recommended tool, 90 asked the following questions in order to determine a community’s participation in and continued compliance with the NFIP:
• Please identify your jurisdiction's designated Floodplain Administrator.
90 Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, Worksheet 4.3: National Flood Insurance Program, FEMA (March 2013) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-19 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
• How many NFIP flood insurance policies are in effect in your jurisdiction and what is the total premium and coverage?
• How many loss claims have been made in your jurisdiction and what is the total amount of paid claims?
• Please list the regulations that were adopted to meet federal NFIP requirements, including the date and section number.
• What is the date of your jurisdiction's last NFIP Community Assistance Visit (CAV) of Community Assistance Contact (CAC)?
• Describe any local "higher standards" that exceed NFIP minimum requirements. • Describe any additional floodplain management provisions that are integrated into other plans or processes that the community uses to guide development. • Describe any other floodplain management activities your jurisdiction performs that go beyond FEMA minimum requirements.
• Please describe any existing impediments to running an effective NFIP program in your jurisdiction, if any.
• Please identify some specific actions that your jurisdiction can take related to continued compliance with the NFIP.
NFIP Survey Results
All municipal jurisdictions in Monterey County actively participate in, and are in good standing with, the NFIP. Each jurisdiction has adopted and enforces a local flood damage prevention ordinance in compliance with at least the minimum federal standards for new construction located in identified Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA). These standards require that all new buildings and substantial improvements to existing buildings will be protected from damage by the 1-%-annual-chance flood event, and that new floodplain development will not aggravate existing flood problems or increase damage to other properties.
Another key service provided by the NFIP is the mapping of identified flood hazard areas. Once prepared, the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) are used to assess flood hazard risk, regulate construction practices, and set flood insurance rates. FIRMs are an important source of information to educate residents, government officials, and the private sector about the likelihood of flooding in their community. All jurisdictions in Monterey County have coordinated with FEMA in the development and update of FIRMs to identify the regulatory Special Flood Hazard Areas for their jurisdictions.
Responses to the questions listed above and more information on the current administration of the NFIP in each jurisdiction is provided Volume 2, in respective jurisdiction annexes, in the Capability Assessment Section, under National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Compliance.
As previously included in the Flooding, Section 10, NFIP Participation in Monterey County is summarized in Table 20-2.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-20 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Table 20-2: NFIP Participation
Table 20-2
NFIP Participation
Jurisdiction
Community
Number
Policies in
Force
Total Coverage
Total Written Premium +
Federal Policy Fee
Carmel-By-The-Sea 060196 29 $9,940,000 $13,888
Del Rey Oaks 060197 19 $6,577,500 $50,436
Gonzales 060198 14 $5,474,500 $18,502
Greenfield 060446 3 $1,050,000 $1,260
King City 060199 17 $4,318,600 $28,721
Marina 060727 45 $13,664,400 $61,833
Monterey 060200 58 $19,847,400 $49,129
Monterey County 060195 1,277 $362,723,300 $1,732,791 Pacific Grove 060201 35 $11,144,000 $14,846
Salinas 060202 317 $95,459,500 $320,007
Sand City 060435 3 $1,400,000 $3,109
Seaside 060203 10 $2,789,000 $3,748
Soledad 060204 1 $350,000 $467
20.5 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT SURVEY
Hazard mitigation planning must include review and incorporation, if appropriate, of existing plans, studies, reports, and technical information (44 CFR, Section 201.6(b)(3)). Additionally, per 44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(3), the plan must include a mitigation strategy based on existing authorities, policies, programs, and resources, therefore each jurisdiction undertook a review of their current capabilities to implement hazard mitigation actions.
The Capability Assessment Survey requested information on a variety of “capability indicators” such as existing local plans, policies, programs, or ordinances that may reduce, or in some circumstances, increase the community’s hazard vulnerability. Other indicators included information related to each jurisdiction’s fiscal, administrative, and technical capabilities such as access to local budgetary and personnel resources necessary to implement hazard mitigation measures. Survey respondents were also asked to comment on existing activities or capabilities to conduct public education and outreach, as well as the current political climate in their jurisdiction to implement hazard mitigation actions.
The Survey was based on the FEMA recommended tool and included a summary of a jurisdiction’s overall capability in the following four different types of capabilities as defined by FEMA.
91 91 Local Mitigation Planning Handbook, Worksheet 4.1: Capability Assessment Worksheet, FEMA (March 2013) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-21 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
• Planning and Regulatory Capabilities: capabilities based on the jurisdiction’s implementation of ordinances, policies, local laws, and State statutes, and plans and programs that relate to guiding and managing growth and development. • Administrative and Technical Capabilities: capabilities associated with the jurisdiction’s staff and their skills and tools that can be used for mitigation planning and to implement specific mitigation actions.
• Fiscal Capabilities: refers to the fiscal resources that a jurisdiction has access to or is eligible to use to fund mitigation actions.
• Education and Outreach Capabilities: refers to education and outreach programs and methods already in place that could be used to implement mitigation activities and communicate hazard-related information.
At a minimum, survey results provide an extensive inventory of existing local plans, ordinances, programs, and resources in place or under development in addition to their overall effect on hazard loss reduction as perceived by local government staff. The Survey also required the respondent to conduct a self-assessment of their jurisdiction’s specific capabilities (on a scale of Degree of Capability from Limited to High).
The survey instrument thereby not only helps to accurately assess each jurisdiction’s degree of local capability, but also serves as a source of introspection for jurisdictions to assess their capability and recast identified gaps, weaknesses, or conflicts as opportunities to be addressed in the development of new mitigation actions.
For participating special districts, a slightly different capability assessment was used in order to capture capabilities more specific to their individual services. Special district capability assessments are included in the respective annexes.
For participating municipal jurisdictions, the documents and/or resources included and assessed under each of the capability categories is summarized in Table 20-3.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-22 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Table 20-3: Capability Assessment Survey - Documents and Resources Assessed Table 20-3
Capability Assessment Survey- Documents and Resources Assessed Planning and Regulatory Capability
Planning Documents
• General Plan • Emergency Operations Plan
• Capital Improvement Plan • Continuity of Operations Plan • Floodplain Management Plan • Community Wildfire Protection Plan • Open Space Management Plan • Evacuation Plan
• Stormwater Management Plan • Historic Preservation Plan • Coastal or Shoreline Management Plan • Transportation Plan • Local Coastal Program • Disaster Recovery Plan
• Climate Action/ Adaptation Plan • Economic Development Plan Code, Ordinance, or Requirements
• Floodplain Ordinance • Unified Development Ordinance
• Zoning Ordinance • Post-Disaster Redevelopment Ordinance • Subdivision Ordinance4 • Building Code
• Site Plan Review Requirements • Fire Prevention Code
Administrative and Technical Capability
• Planner(s) or engineer(s) with knowledge of land development and land management practices • Engineer(s) or professional(s) trained in construction practices related to buildings and/or infrastructure • Planner(s) or engineer(s) with an understanding of manmade or natural hazards • Building Inspector • Emergency Manager
• Floodplain Manager • Land Surveyors
• Resource development staff or grant writers • Public Information Officer • Scientist(s) familiar with the hazards of the
community
• Personnel skilled in Geographic Information
Systems (GIS)
• Staff with education or expertise to assess the
community’s vulnerability to hazards • Warning systems/services • Maintenance programs to reduce risk • Mutual Aid Agreements Fiscal Capabilities
Funds and Taxes Bonds and Grants Fees
• General Funds • General Obligation Bonds • Stormwater Utility Fees • Special Purpose Taxes • Special Tax and Revenue Bonds • Gas / Electric Utility Fees • Capital Improvements Project
Funding
• Community Development Block
Grants
• Water / Sewer Fees
• Development Impact Fees
Education and Outreach Capabilities
• Local citizen or non-profit groups focused on environmental protection, emergency preparedness, access, and functional needs populations, etc.
• Ongoing public education or information program (e.g., responsible water use, fire safety, household preparedness, environmental education)
• Natural disaster or safety related school programs
• Public-private partnership initiatives addressing disaster-related issues COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-23 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Additionally, classifications under various community mitigation programs were included. Other programs, such as the Community Rating System, Storm/Tsunami Ready, and Firewise USA, can enhance a jurisdiction’s ability to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to natural hazards. These programs indicate a jurisdiction’s desire to go beyond minimum requirements set forth by local, state, and federal regulations in order to create a more resilient community. These programs complement each other by focusing on communication, mitigation, and community preparedness to save lives and minimize the impact of natural hazards on a community. The programs reviewed here are applicable to municipal partners only, so they are not included in the capability assessments for special-purpose districts.
Community programs in the survey included:
• Community Rating System (CRS)
• ISO Public Protection Classification
• StormReady Certification
• TsunamiReady Certification
• Firewise Communities Certification
Capability Assessment Survey Results
Survey results are summarized in each individual Jurisdiction Annex in the Capability Assessment Section. Table 20-4 summarizes the communities who participate in various community mitigation programs.
Table 20-4: Jurisdictions Participating in Various Community Mitigation Programs
The overall self-assessment of capability classifications provided in Table 20-5 are designed to provide a general overview of capability assessment results and indicate each individual jurisdiction’s perceived local capability. More information on the specific capabilities that are unique to each jurisdiction is provided in each jurisdiction’s respective annex.
Table 20-4
Jurisdictions Participating in Various Community Mitigation Programs Community Ratings System (CRS) Participation
Monterey County Current CRS Class: 5
City of Salinas Current CRS Class: 7
Storm Ready Communities Tsunami Ready Communities
Monterey County Monterey County
Unincorporated Community of Pebble Beach Unincorporated Community of Pebble Beach City of Marina City of Carmel-by-the-Sea
City of Monterey City of Marina
City of Pacific Grove City of Monterey
City of Pacific Grove
Firewise Ready Communities
Unincorporated Community of Robles del Rio
Unincorporated Community of Rancho Tierra Grande
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 20-24 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Table 20-5: Participating Jurisdictions Self -Assessment of Capability Ratings Table 20-5
Participating Jurisdictions Self-Assessment of Capability Ratings Jurisdiction
Planning &
Regulatory
Capability
Administrative
& Technical
Capability
Financial
Capability
Education &
Outreach
Capability
Political
Capability
Overall
Capability
Monterey County High Moderate Limited Moderate Moderate Moderate City of Carmel-by-
the-Sea Moderate Moderate Limited Limited Limited Limited City of Del Rey Oaks Moderate High Limited Moderate Moderate Moderate City of Gonzales Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate City of Greenfield Moderate Limited Limited Moderate Moderate Moderate City of King Moderate Moderate Limited Limited Moderate Moderate City of Marina Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate City of Monterey High High High High High High
City of Pacific Grove High High Moderate High Moderate High City of Salinas High Moderate Limited Moderate Moderate Moderate City of Sand City Moderate Limited Limited Limited Moderate Limited City of Seaside High High Limited High Moderate Moderate City of Soledad Moderate Moderate Limited Moderate High Moderate Carmel Area
Wastewater District Moderate High High High High High
Monterey One Water High High Limited Moderate Limited Moderate Monterey Regional
Waste Management
District
Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate
Moss Landing Harbor
District Moderate Moderate Limited Limited Moderate Moderate
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-1 MITIGATION STRATEGY
21. MITIGATION STRATEGY
Hazard mitigation plans must identify goals for reducing long-term vulnerabilities to identified hazards (44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(3)(i)). The mitigation strategy section is a blueprint for Monterey County to follow to become less vulnerable to the negative effects of the hazards identified and addressed in this Plan. The Steering Committee established guiding principles and a set of goals for this plan, based on data from the risk assessments, stakeholder input, and the results of the public involvement strategy.
The intent of the mitigation strategy is to provide Monterey County with a vision and overall goals that will serve as guiding principles for future mitigation policy and project administration, along with an analysis of mitigation techniques deemed available to meet those goals and reduce the impact of identified hazards.
21.1 GUIDING PRINCIPLE
A guiding principle focuses the range of objectives and actions to be considered. The purpose of the guiding principle is to represent the overall intended outcome of the MJHMP. The guiding principle for this hazard mitigation plan is as follows:
Reduce the risk to life and property in Monterey County in an efficient and effective manner by decreasing the long-term vulnerability from hazards through coordinated planning, partnerships, capacity building, and implementation of effective risk reduction measures.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-2 MITIGATION STRATEGY
21.2 MITIGATION GOALS
Hazard mitigation plans must identify goals for reducing long-term vulnerabilities to identified hazards (44 C.F.R. § 201.6(c)(3)(i)). Mitigation goals represent broad statements that are achieved through the implementation of more specific mitigation actions. Each goal, purposefully broad in nature, serves to establish the parameters that were used to review and update existing mitigation actions and to aid in formulating new ones.
Goals discussed in this section describe what actions should occur. Specific, measurable mitigation actions explain how to accomplish the goals. The goals form the basis for the development of the Mitigation Action Strategy and specific mitigation projects. The effectiveness of a mitigation strategy is assessed by determining how well these goals are achieved. The consistent implementation of mitigation actions over time will ensure that these mitigation goals are achieved.
Mitigation goals for this Plan update include:
Goal #1 Minimize risk and vulnerability of Monterey County to hazards and protect lives and prevent losses to property, public health, economy, and the environment.
Goal #2
Increase the resilience of infrastructure and critical facilities and reduce long-term vulnerabilities of existing and future critical facilities, property, infrastructure, and high hazard potential dams due to natural hazards.
Goal #3 Build and support capacity to enable local government and the public to prepare for, respond to, and recover from the impact of natural hazards.
Goal #4 Encourage the development and implementation of long-term, cost-effective, and environmentally sound mitigation projects.
Goal #5 Promote and implement hazard mitigation policies and projects that are consistent with state, regional, and local climate action, and adaptation goals.
Goal #6 Inform the public on the risk from hazards of concern and increase awareness, preparation, mitigation, response, and recovery activities to promote public safety.
Goal #7
Enhance codes and their enforcement where feasible, so that new construction can withstand the impacts of known hazards and to lessen the impact of development on the environment’s ability to absorb the impact of natural hazards.
Goal #8 Consider the impacts of known hazards in all planning mechanisms that address current and future land uses within the County.
Goal #9 Establish a partnership among all levels of government and the business community to improve and implement methods to protect property.
Goal #10 Encourage hazard mitigation measures that promote and enhance natural processes and minimize adverse impacts on the ecosystem.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-3 MITIGATION STRATEGY
21.3 IDENTIFICATION OF MITIGATION ACTIONS
In formulating the mitigation strategy, a wide range of actions was considered in order to help achieve the established mitigation goals, in addition to addressing any specific hazard concerns.
These activities were discussed during the Planning Team meetings. In general, all activities considered by the Planning Team can be classified under one of the following five broad categories of mitigation techniques: local plans and regulations, structure and infrastructure projects, natural systems protection, education and outreach, and emergency preparedness and response. All of these categories are described in detail below.
Local Plans and Regulations
Mitigation actions that fall under this category include government authorities, policies, or codes that influence the way land and buildings are developed and built.
Examples of these types of actions include:
• Comprehensive and General Plans
• Climate Action and Adaptation Plans
• Land Use Ordinances and Subdivision Regulations
• Zoning and Building Code Updates
• Capital Improvement Plans, Stormwater Management Regulations, and Master Plans Structure and Infrastructure Projects
Mitigation actions that fall under this category involve modifying existing structures and infrastructure to protect them from a hazard or remove them from a hazard area. This could apply to public or private structures as well as critical facilities and infrastructure. This type of action also involves projects to construct manmade structures to reduce the impact of hazards.
Examples of these types of actions include:
• Elevation of Flood-Prone Structures
• Utility Undergrounding
• Structural Retrofits
• Stormwater System Upgrades
Natural Systems Protection
Mitigation actions that fall under this category minimize damage and losses and also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems.
Examples of these types of actions include:
• Stream Corridor and Wetland Restoration
• Sediment and Erosion Control
• Forest and Vegetation Management
• Conservation Easements and Open Space Preservation
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-4 MITIGATION STRATEGY
Education and Outreach
Mitigation actions that fall under this category inform and educate the public, elected officials, and property owners about hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Although this type of mitigation reduces risk less directly than structural projects or regulation, it is an important foundation. A greater understanding and awareness of hazards and risk among local officials, stakeholders, and the public is more likely to lead to direct actions.
Examples of these types of actions include:
• Risk Communication and Education Programs
• Real Estate Disclosures
• Participation in StormReady or Firewise Program
Emergency Preparedness and Response
Though emergency preparedness and response activities do not always fall under hazard mitigation, stakeholders in Monterey County believe this is an incredibly important category of strategies for reducing the risk to life and property posed by the hazards in the MJHMP.
Examples of these types of actions include:
• Warning Systems
• Emergency Operations Center Improvements
• Emergency Operations Plan Updates
• Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Programs
• Communications Enhancements
• Emergency Response Training and Exercises
• Evacuation Planning
• Sandbagging for Flood Protection
21.4 MITIGATION ACTION PRIORITIZATION
Multiple factors were considered to determine the mitigation priorities for the next five-year implementation period and which mitigation actions should be given highest priority for implementation. FEMA’s recommended prioritization criteria, STAPLEE, were used to assist in deciding why one recommended action might be more important, more effective, or more likely to be implemented than another.
STAPLEE stands for the following:
• Social: Does the measure treat people fairly? (e.g., different groups, different generations) Does it consider social equity, disadvantaged communities, or vulnerable populations?
• Technical: Will it work? (Is the action technically feasible? Does it solve the problem?) COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-5 MITIGATION STRATEGY
• Administrative: Is there capacity to implement and manage the project? Is there adequate staffing, funding, and other capabilities to implement the project? • Political: Who are the stakeholders? Did they get to participate? Will there be adequate political and public support for the project?
• Legal: Does the jurisdiction have the legal authority to implement the action? Is it legal? Are there liability implications?
• Economic: Is the action cost-beneficial? Is there funding available? Will the action contribute to the local economy?
• Environmental: Does the action comply with environmental regulations? Will there be negative environmental consequences from the action?
In accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act requirements, an emphasis was placed on the importance of a benefit-cost analysis in determining action priority (44 CFR, Section 201.6(c)(3)(iii)). The benefits of proposed actions were weighed against estimated costs as part of the prioritization process.
The benefit/cost analysis was not of the detailed variety required by FEMA for project grant eligibility under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) and Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) grant program. A less formal approach was used because some projects may not be implemented for up to 10 years, and associated costs and benefits could change dramatically in that time. Therefore, a review of the apparent benefits versus the apparent cost of each project was performed. Parameters were established for assigning subjective ratings (high, medium, and low) to the costs and benefits of these projects.
Cost ratings were defined as follows:
• High: Existing funding will not cover the cost of the project; implementation would require new revenue through an alternative source.
• Medium: The project could be implemented with existing funding but would require a re-apportionment of the budget or a budget amendment, or the cost of the project would have to be spread over multiple years.
• Low: The project could be funded under the existing budget. The project is part of or can be part of an ongoing existing program.
Benefit ratings were defined as follows:
• High: Project will provide an immediate reduction of risk exposure for life and property. • Medium: Project will have a long-term impact on the reduction of risk exposure for life and property, or project will provide an immediate reduction in the risk exposure for property.
• Low: Long-term benefits of the project are difficult to quantify in the short term.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-6 MITIGATION STRATEGY
Using this approach, projects with positive benefit versus cost ratios (such as high over high, high over medium, medium over low, etc.) are considered cost-beneficial and are prioritized accordingly.
21.4.1 MITIGATION ALTERNATIVES
In compliance with 44 CFR (Section 201.6(c)(3)(ii)): A section is included that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure
21.5 HAZARD PRIORITIZATION
As described previously, hazards were prioritized using a combination of historical data, local knowledge, and consensus opinions to produce a matrix that illustrates the degree of risk of each profiled hazard. Details on the creation of the matrix and the full results of the risk ranking process are included in Section 4.4, Hazard Prioritization and Risk Ranking.
Table 21-1 lists the highest-ranking hazards from the prioritization process.
Table 21-1: High and Substantial Hazards from Countywide Risk Prioritization Table 21-1
High and Substantial Hazards from Countywide Risk Prioritization Ranking Hazard Degree of Risk Score
(Out of 16) Degree of Risk
1 Drought & Water Shortage 12.3 High
2 Earthquake 11.9 Substantial
3 Pandemic 11.2 Substantial
4 Wildfire 10.8 Substantial
5 Epidemic 10.7 Substantial
6 Cyber-Attack 10.5 Substantial
7 Utility Interruption/ PSPS 10.2 Substantial
8 Localized Stormwater Flooding 10.2 Substantial
9 Severe Winter Storms 10.1 Substantial
21.5.1 COUNTYWIDE PROBLEM STATEMENTS
Problem Statements are statements of particular interest regarding primary hazards of concern, geographic areas of concern, or vulnerable community assets. As part of the planning process, the Steering Committee identified key vulnerabilities and hazards of concern applicable to the entire County. Hazard Problem Statements helped the Steering Committee identify common issues and weaknesses, determine appropriate mitigation strategies, and understand the realm of resources needed for mitigation.
The Countywide Hazard Problem Statements were based on the risk assessments, the risk prioritization process, the vulnerability analysis, and local knowledge, as well as the jurisdiction COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-7 MITIGATION STRATEGY
specific problem statements and community and stakeholder input. While only risks which ranked as High were prioritized for mitigation actions in individual annexes, for the purposes of the countywide plan, High and Substantial risk hazards were included in problem statements and countywide mitigation actions. For simplicity, the Hazard Problem Statement for Pandemic and Epidemic were combined. Countywide Hazard Problem Statements are identified below:
Drought & Water Shortage
In Monterey County, water supply is extremely limited during non-drought years. As such, droughts are a serious threat in the County and could have devastating impacts on the agricultural industry, a major economic driver and job provider. Additionally, prolonged periods of drought can reduce water available for residential users and increase water prices.
Governing authorities have been established to limit water use and protect water supply.
Procurement of water credits/rights may limit new development necessary to meet increasing housing demands. Periods of drought also lead to increased pumping of groundwater wells, which can exacerbate sea water intrusion into the aquifer, increase land subsidence risks, and effect water quality. Contamination of drinking water, though unlikely, could be catastrophic.
Drought conditions are likely to increase in future climate change scenarios.
Earthquake
Monterey County has several fault systems, including three major active faults: The San Andreas Fault, the Palo Colorado-San Gregorio Fault, and the Monterey Bay-Tularcitos Fault.
Due to the location of population centers and building history in the County, any large earthquake will likely have significant impacts on people, property, and critical infrastructure including water systems, telecommunications infrastructure, roads, bridges, healthcare systems, and utilities. Damages and debris could isolate large populations from these critical lifelines. Older unreinforced-masonry structures in the County are particularly vulnerable to earthquake risk. An earthquake can also produce cascading impacts due to urban conflagration, wildfires, seiches, landslides, tsunamis, dam failure, and levee failure.
Pandemic/ Epidemic
The whole population of Monterey County is vulnerable to disease. The impacts of the COVID- 19 Pandemic on the County have demonstrated the catastrophic risks that can be associated with large-scale disease outbreaks. Critical healthcare systems can become overwhelmed, limiting access to life-saving medical services. Continuity of government due to impacted workforces can result in limitations to essential government services. Disease outbreaks can place a disproportionate burden on the County’s most vulnerable populations. Additionally, due to the large number of transient populations, such as tourists and migrant farmworkers, eradication of any new disease outbreak can be difficult without significant impacts to industry and the local economy.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-8 MITIGATION STRATEGY
Wildfire
California, and subsequently Monterey County, is in cycle of extreme heat, drought, and fire, all amplified by climate change. Wildfires are a natural part of the California environment; however, fire behavior has increased in frequency, size, and impact from longer wildfire “seasons.” Deferred vegetation management and population sprawl in the wildland urban interface and intermix, have increased probability and impact of wildfires. Sudden oak death and invasive species have created unhealthy forests. Large wildfires, such as the 2020 Wildfires in Monterey County, can cause housing inventories to become significantly limited thus increasing the demand on the housing market; additionally, many property owners have been unable to obtain or retain fire insurance at an affordable price or at all. Pre-existing water supply challenges in the County can lead to limited water available for fire suppression.
Cyber-Attack
Nearly every aspect of life in Monterey County is dependent on systems and resources connected and managed through computer systems. Cyber-attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the ability of government, public and private entities to access banking, electricity, water, telecommunications, transportation, and other information systems necessary for survival. Due to the tightly coupled nature of technological system and critical lifelines, any failure of service continuity could cost lives.
Utility Interruption/ PSPS
Heat-related equipment failures and electrical infrastructure igniting wildfires has resulted in unintentional and intentional rolling blackouts and power shutoffs throughout the County.
Public Safety/ Utility Initiated Power Shut Offs to prevent wildfire ignition can have notably significant impacts due to the length of disruption time, limited efficacy of the strategy, and the effect on first responder capabilities. Extreme and prolonged heatwaves across the state increase the demand for use of the aging electrical grid, significantly depleting electricity reserves resulting in blackouts. Heatwaves are expected to increase in intensity and magnitude due to climate change, which will likely exacerbate this problem. Traditional energy sources increase climate change risk and are failing more consistently, but energy alternative technology cannot meet current nighttime demand.
Additionally, Monterey County has limited microgrids and reliance on the macro-grid makes the County vulnerable to rolling and prolonged power outages. Over the last decade Monterey County residents have begun adjusting to the increasing unreliability of macro utilities. Loss of power for more than a few hours can result in large economic losses, specifically related to food and agriculture. More vulnerable populations in isolated areas or who rely on medical devices are at increased risk during prolonged power outages.
Localized Stormwater Flooding
Localized flooding has the potential to significantly impact people, property, and critical infrastructure in the County. Undersized and aging drainage infrastructure, deferred maintenance, increased run-off due to drought conditions, the built environment, and trends in COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-9 MITIGATION STRATEGY
precipitation and weather can all increase the risk of localized stormwater flooding. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the intensity and magnitude of precipitation events, increasing the risk associated with localized stormwater flooding causing drainage infrastructure to be undersized in increasingly more common events.
Additionally, unhoused residents living in stormwater drainage areas can lead to increasing flood risk due to accumulated debris and trash, which can complicate both flood response and mitigation activities.
Severe Winter Storms
Severe winter storms have been increasing in intensity, magnitude, and severity in Monterey County and are associated with a variety of hazards in this Plan. Severe winter storms and heavy rain can have significant impacts including flash flooding, localized stormwater flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Secondary hazards can cause immobility and loss of utilities. Roads may become impassable due to flooding, downed trees, or landslides. Power lines may be downed due to high winds, and services such as water or telecommunications infrastructure may not be able to operate without power.
Stormwater runoff from heavy rains can also impair water quality by washing pollutants into water bodies. Severe winter storms can also cause large storm surge and wave action along the coastline, flooding low lying areas and causing dramatic erosion. Coastal bluff and cliff failure due to erosion can create hazardous conditions due to roadway collapse, undermined home foundations and damage to utilities. Additionally, future sea level rise scenarios are likely to exacerbate coastal and inland flood risks during winter storms.
Road Infrastructure
The occurrence of any hazard profiled in this Plan in combination with aging and limited road infrastructure can result in limited egress of evacuees and minimal ingress of first responders.
Roadways can be compromised in severe weather incidents, further limiting road capacity.
Road infrastructure is not developing at a rate commensurate with the rate that population and housing is expanding. Further, the topography of the County limits where new roads can be built.
21.6 MITIGATION ACTION PLAN
The mitigation strategy is the guidebook to future hazard mitigation administration, capturing the key outcomes of the planning process. The Hazard Mitigation Action Plan Matrix for each jurisdiction, included in each participating jurisdictions respective annex in Volume 2, lists each priority mitigation action, identifies a time frame, the responsible party, potential funding sources, and prioritization, which meet the requirements of FEMA and DMA 2000. It should be noted that each jurisdiction has also prioritized the countywide actions listed below within their respective mitigation action plans.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 21-10 MITIGATION STRATEGY
21.6.1 COUNTYWIDE MITIGATION ACTION PLAN
The Steering Committee reviewed the catalogs of hazard mitigation alternatives and selected area-wide actions to be included in a hazard mitigation action plan. The selection of area-wide actions was based on the risk assessment of identified hazards of concern and the defined hazard mitigation goals and objectives.
Table 21-2 summarizes Countywide mitigation actions by hazard.
Table 21-2: Countywide Mitigation Action Plan
Table 21-2
Countywide Mitigation Action Plan
Hazard Mitigation Action
Drought Provide public information on water conservation and assess the potential for community-wide water conservation programs.
Earthquake
Provide information on earthquake risk and preparedness to the public. Continue to adopt and implement current earthquake building standards and upgrade, remove, or replace unreinforced masonry buildings, as feasible.
Pandemic/ Epidemic
Provide unified information to the public regarding personal protective measures and mitigating strategies in accordance with CDC guidelines. Implement public health measures in government facilities.
Wildfire
Continue to collaborate across the operational area with all jurisdictions with fire protection and suppression responsibility on wildfire mitigation efforts.
Cyber-Attack
Seek to increase redundancy in IT infrastructure, implement protective cyber-security measures, and train staff on common cyber-attack methods.
Utility Interruption
Encourage the development of and use of microgrids and the hardening of utility of infrastructure, where possible. Provide backup generators for critical infrastructure and facilities.
Localized
Stormwater Flooding
Maintain good standing in the National Flood Insurance Program and encourage coordination on drainage system maintenance.
Severe Winter
Storms
Maintain StormReady and TsunamiReady certification, as
applicable.
Climate Change Support, encourage, and implement, when feasible, countywide climate action, adaptation, and resiliency initiatives.
All Hazards
Incorporate and make consistent other planning documents with appropriate goals, policies, and objectives to address hazards identified within the Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-1 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
22. PLAN IMPLEMENTATION AND
MAINTENANCE
22.1 PLAN ADOPTION
A hazard mitigation plan must document that it has been formally adopted by the governing bodies of the jurisdictions requesting federal approval of the plan (44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(5)).
For multi-jurisdictional plans, each jurisdiction requesting approval must document that it has been formally adopted. This plan will be submitted for a pre-adoption review to Cal OES and FEMA Region IX. Once pre-adoption approval has been provided, all planning partners will formally adopt the plan. DMA compliance and its benefits cannot be achieved until the plan is adopted. Copies of the resolutions adopting this plan for all planning partners can be found in Appendix 1.
22.2 PLAN MAINTENANCE
A hazard mitigation plan must present a plan maintenance process that includes the following (44 CFR Section 201.6(c)(4)):
• A section describing the method and schedule of monitoring, evaluating, and updating the mitigation plan over a 5-year cycle
• A process by which local governments incorporate the requirements of the mitigation plan into other planning mechanisms, such as comprehensive or capital improvement plans, when appropriate
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-2 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
• A discussion on how the community will continue public participation in the plan maintenance process.
This section details the formal process that will ensure that the Hazard Mitigation Plan remains an active and relevant document and that the planning partners maintain their eligibility for applicable funding sources. The plan maintenance process includes a schedule for monitoring and evaluating the plan annually and producing an updated plan every five years. This section also describes how public participation will be integrated throughout the plan maintenance and implementation process.
It also explains how the mitigation strategies outlined in this Plan will be incorporated into existing planning mechanisms and programs, such as comprehensive land-use planning processes, capital improvement planning, and building code enforcement and implementation.
The Plan’s format allows sections to be reviewed and updated when new data become available, resulting in a plan that will remain current and relevant.
22.2.1 PLAN IMPLEMENTATION
Each jurisdiction participating in this Plan is responsible for implementing specific mitigation actions as prescribed in their locally adopted Annex. In each Annex’s Mitigation Action Plan, every proposed action is assigned to a specific local department or agency in order to assign responsibility and accountability and increase the likelihood of subsequent implementation.
This approach enables individual jurisdictions to update their own unique mitigation action list as needed without altering the county level Plan. The separate adoption of locally specific actions also ensures that each jurisdiction is not held responsible for the monitoring and implementation of actions belonging to other jurisdictions involved in the planning process.
In addition to the assignment of a local lead department or agency, an implementation time period or a specific implementation date or window has been assigned to each mitigation action to help assess whether actions are being implemented in a timely fashion. The jurisdictions present within Monterey County will seek outside funding sources to implement mitigation projects in both the pre-disaster and post-disaster environments. When applicable, potential funding sources have been identified for proposed actions listed in the Mitigation Action Plans.
It will be the responsibility of each participating jurisdiction to determine additional implementation procedures beyond those listed within their Mitigation Action Plan. This includes integrating the requirements of the MJHMP into other local planning documents, processes, or mechanisms such as comprehensive or capital improvement plans, when appropriate. The members of the Steering Committee will remain charged with ensuring that the goals and strategies of new and updated local planning documents for their jurisdictions or agencies are consistent with the goals and actions of the MJHMP and will not contribute to increased hazard vulnerability in Monterey County.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-3 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
Although the development and maintenance of this stand-alone MJHMP is deemed by the Steering Committee to be the most effective and appropriate method to implement local hazard mitigation actions at this time, the planning team recognizes that resilient communities proactively protect themselves against hazards through the institution of mitigation principles into daily actions and policy decisions.
The planning team and the communities they represent will continue to create opportunities to weave the thread of hazard mitigation and the strategies and goals identified in this plan into all community and emergency planning processes.
22.2.2 INCORPORATION INTO OTHER PLANNING MECHANISMS
The information on hazard, risk, vulnerability, and mitigation contained in this Plan is based on the best science and technology available at the time this plan was prepared. The general plans of the planning partners are considered to be integral parts of this plan. The planning partners, through adoption of general plans and zoning ordinances, have planned for the impact of natural hazards. The plan development process provided them with the opportunity to review and expand on policies contained within these planning mechanisms. The planning partners used their general plans and the hazard mitigation plan as complementary documents that work together to achieve the goal of reducing risk exposure to the citizens of the planning area.
An update to a general plan may trigger an update to the hazard mitigation plan.
All municipal planning partners are committed to creating a linkage between the hazard mitigation plan and their individual general plans by identifying a mitigation action as such and giving that action a high priority. Additionally, all planning partners are committed to being in full compliance with California Assembly Bill 2140 and Senate Bill 379, which promote the integration of local hazard mitigation plans and general plans and mandate that these plans address climate change.
Moving forward, hazard mitigation strategies and goals should be incorporated into other community planning efforts. Examples may include but are not limited to:
• Emergency Operations Plans can address threat and hazard vulnerability and ensure jurisdictions strengthen their core capabilities to address the highest risks. • County and local general plans, especially the safety element, is an appropriate document to codify hazard mitigation goals and strategies. Other relevant policy areas with the general plan include land use, transportation, resource management and conservation, and recreation and open space.
• Climate Action and Adaptation plans should recognize that the long-term impacts of climate change can potentially affect hazards by increasing their severity.
Other planning processes and programs to be coordinated with the recommendations of the hazard mitigation plan could include the following:
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-4 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
• Debris management plans
• Recovery plans
• Capital improvement programs
• Municipal codes
• Community design guidelines
• Water-efficient landscape design guidelines
• Stormwater management programs
• Water system vulnerability assessments
• Community wildfire protection plans
• Comprehensive flood hazard management plans
• Resiliency plans
• Community Development Block Grant-Disaster Recovery action plans • Public information/education plans.
Some action items do not need to be implemented through regulation. Instead, these items can be implemented through the creation of new educational programs, continued interagency coordination, or improved public participation. As information becomes available from other planning mechanisms that can enhance this plan, that information will be incorporated via the update process.
More information on plan integration is included in each jurisdictions respective annex in Volume 2.
22.2.3 PLAN MONITORING AND EVALUATION
The agency with the overall responsibility for monitoring this Plan is the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services. Periodic revisions and updates of the MJHMP are required to ensure that the goals of the Plan are kept current, considering potential changes in hazard vulnerability and mitigation priorities. In addition, revisions may be necessary to ensure that the Plan is in full compliance with applicable federal and state regulations. Periodic evaluation of the Plan will also ensure that specific mitigation actions are being reviewed and carried out according to each jurisdiction’s individual Mitigation Action Plan.
The Steering Committee meets on an annual basis, or “as needed” determined by the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services, in order to maintain oversight of key elements of the plan maintenance strategy. The principal role of the Steering Committee in the plan maintenance strategy will be to review progress made on current plan goals, actions, and strategies, and identify any new opportunities for collaboration. The Committee will also provide a review forum for enhancements to be considered at the next update.
Future plan updates will be overseen by a steering committee similar to the one that participated in this update process, so keeping a steering committee intact will provide a head start on future updates.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-5 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
Annual Progress Report
As part of this monitoring, evaluation, and enhancement process, each participating jurisdiction will be expected to provide an annual status report and an update at annual Steering Committee meetings. Prior to annual meetings the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services will send out the Countywide Mitigation Goals and Action Plan, in addition to the respective jurisdictions Mitigation Action Plan. Annual progress reports will provide an opportunity for jurisdictions to review their respective Mitigation Action Plan and evaluate the Plan’s implementation effectiveness.
Completion of the progress report will be the responsibility of each participating jurisdiction, not the Steering Committee. The Steering Committee will serve as a resource to the planning partners as needed to review the progress report in an effort to identify issues needing to be addressed by future plan updates.
The planning team has created a template that shows the minimum level of detail that will be sought for preparing a progress report (see Appendix 2). The annual progress report will ensure that the plan is continuously maintained and updated to reflect changing conditions and needs within Monterey County. If determined appropriate or as requested, the annual report will be presented to local governing bodies of participating jurisdictions and/or to the public in order to report progress on the actions identified in the Plan.
Post-Disaster Mitigation Webinars
Following state or federally declared disasters in the Monterey County Operational Area, the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services will host, as a part of the recovery process, informational webinars on FEMA Post-Disaster Mitigation Funding opportunities. After-Action Reports will also include a discussion item on how to mitigate future incidents.
22.2.4 PLAN UPDATE
Local hazard mitigation plans must be reviewed, revised if appropriate, and resubmitted for approval in order to remain eligible for benefits under the DMA (44 CFR, Section 201.6(d)(3)).
The planning partners intend to update the hazard mitigation plan on a 5-year cycle from the date of initial plan adoption.
It will not be the intent of future updates to develop a completely new hazard mitigation plan for the planning area. The Plan will be reviewed by the planning team every five years to determine whether there have been any significant changes in Monterey County or the surrounding area that may, in turn, necessitate changes in the types of mitigation actions proposed. New development in identified hazard areas, an increased exposure to hazards, the increase or decrease in capability to address hazards, and changes to federal or state legislation are examples of factors that may affect the necessary content of the Plan.
The plan review provides community officials with an opportunity to evaluate those actions that have been successful and to explore the possibility of documenting potential losses avoided due to the implementation of specific mitigation measures. The plan review also COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-6 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
provides the opportunity to address mitigation actions that may not have been successfully implemented as assigned.
During the five-year plan review process, the following questions will be considered as criteria for assessing the effectiveness and appropriateness of the Plan:
• Do the goals address current and expected conditions? • Has the nature or magnitude of risks changed?
• Are the current resources appropriate for implementing the Plan? • Are there implementation problems, such as technical, political, legal, or coordination issues with other agencies?
• Have the outcomes occurred as expected?
• Did the jurisdictions, agencies, and other partners participate in the plan implementation process as proposed?
Following the five-year update, any revisions deemed necessary will be summarized and implemented according to the reporting procedures outlined herein. Upon completion of the review and update/amendment process, the MJHMP will be submitted to the State Hazard Mitigation Officer at the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) for final review and approval in coordination with the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Disaster Declaration
Following a disaster declaration, the Plan will be revised as necessary to reflect lessons learned, or to address specific issues and circumstances arising from the event. It will be the responsibility of the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services to convene the Steering Committee and ensure the appropriate stakeholders are invited to participate in the plan revision and update process following declared disaster events.
Reporting Procedures
The results of the five-year review will be summarized by the Planning Team in the relevant sections of the updated plan. This includes: a comprehensive description of the plan update process including an evaluation of plan effectiveness; any updates to the planning area profile; any notable revisions or updates to the risk assessment or capability assessment; updated mitigation goals and consideration of mitigation action alternatives; status updates on previously adopted mitigation action plans (including the identification of reasons for delays or obstacles to their implementation) as well as the identification of newly proposed mitigation actions; and revisions or updates to plan maintenance procedures.
Any necessary revisions or changes to the countywide Plan elements must follow the monitoring, evaluation, and enhancement procedures outlined herein. For changes and updates to the individual Mitigation Action Plans, appropriate local designees will assign responsibility for the completion of the task.
22.2.5 CONTINUED PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT
Public participation is an integral component of the mitigation planning process and will continue to be essential as this Plan evolves and is updated over time. The most appropriate COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE | 22-7 IMPLEMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE
and meaningful opportunities for the general public to be involved in the maintenance and implementation of the MJHMP is during the five-year plan review process as described earlier in this section. The participating jurisdictions of Monterey County have been diligent and successful in gaining widespread public involvement during the five-year plan review process through multiple methods. While the five-year plan review process represents the greatest opportunity for such involvement, other efforts to involve the public in the maintenance, evaluation, and revision process will continue to be made, as necessary.
Each participating jurisdiction has agreed to provide links to the hazard mitigation plan website on their individual jurisdictional websites to increase avenues of public access to the plan. The Monterey County Office of Emergency Services will maintain the hazard mitigation plan website, which will house the final plan and become the one-stop shop for information regarding the plan implementation. Copies of the plan will also be distributed to local libraries.
Additionally, as determined feasible, information on mitigation progress discussed at annual Steering Committee Meetings will be announced to the public.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
APPENDIX 1
PLAN ADOPTION RESOLUTIONS
FROM PLANNING PARTNERS
1Appendix 1
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan
APPENDIX 2
PLAN PROGRESS REPORT TEMPLATE
2Appendix 2
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Hazard Mitigation Plan Progress Report
PAGE | 1
PROGRESS REPORT TEMPLATE
Reporting Period: Click or tap to enter a date.
Background: Monterey County and participating local cities and special districts developed a hazard mitigation plan to reduce risk from all hazards by identifying resources, information, and strategies for risk reduction. The federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 requires state and local governments to develop hazard mitigation plans as a condition for federal disaster grant assistance. To prepare the plan, the participating planning partners organized resources, assessed risks from natural hazards, developed planning goals and objectives, reviewed mitigation alternatives, and developed an action plan to address probable impacts from natural hazards. By completing this process, participating jurisdictions are in compliance with the Disaster Mitigation Act, achieving eligibility for mitigation grant funding opportunities afforded under the Robert T. Stafford Act.
The plan can be viewed on-line at:
Purpose: The purpose of this report is to provide an annual update on the implementation of the action plan identified in the Hazard Mitigation Plan. The objective is to ensure that there is a continuing and responsive planning process that will keep the Hazard Mitigation Plan dynamic and responsive to the needs and capabilities of the planning partners. This report discusses the following:
• Natural hazard events that have occurred within the last year • Changes in risk exposure within the planning area
• Mitigation success stories
• Review of the action plan
• Changes in capabilities that could impact plan implementation • Recommendations for changes/enhancement.
Hazard Events within the Planning Area: During the reporting period, the following hazard events in the planning area that had a measurable impact on people or property occurred:
• Click or tap here to enter text.
• Click or tap here to enter text.
• Click or tap here to enter text.
Mitigation Success Stories: Insert brief overview of mitigation accomplishments during the reporting period.
Click or tap here to enter text.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Hazard Mitigation Plan Progress Report
PAGE | 2
Review of the Action Plan: Provide a description of the implementation of each action item in the action plan, including a statement on how the project was implemented or not implemented during the reporting period.
Address the following in the “status” column of the following table:
• Project Completed
• Action ongoing toward completion
• No progress at this time
In the “narrative update” column address the following questions” • Was any element of the action carried out during the reporting period? • If no action was completed, why?
• Is the timeline for implementation for the action still appropriate? • If the action was completed, does it need to be changed or removed from the action plan?
Mitigation Action Status
# Description Status Narrative Update
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Choose an item.
Reviewers of this report should refer to the Hazard Mitigation Plan for more detailed descriptions of each action and the prioritization process.
COUNTY OF MONTEREY Hazard Mitigation Plan Progress Report
PAGE | 3
Changes That May Impact Implementation of the Plan: Insert brief overview of any significant changes in the planning area that would have a profound impact on the implementation of the plan. Specify any changes in technical, regulatory, and financial capabilities identified during the plan’s development.
Click or tap here to enter text.
Recommendations for Changes or Enhancements: Note any recommendations for new projects or revised recommendations for future updates or revisions to the plan. • Click or tap here to enter text.
• Click or tap here to enter text.
• Click or tap here to enter text.
• Click or tap here to enter text.
Public review notice: The contents of this report are considered to be public knowledge and have been prepared for total public disclosure. Copies of the report have been provided to the governing boards of all planning partners and to local media outlets. The report is posted on the Monterey County Office of Emergency Services website.
Any questions or comments regarding the contents of this report should be directed to:
Name: Click or tap here to enter text.
Agency: Click or tap here to enter text.
Title: Click or tap here to enter text.
Email: Click or tap here to enter text.
Phone Number: Click or tap here to enter text.
APPENDIX 3
STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING
AGENDAS
1 MEETING INFORMATION
MEETING: Pre-Planning Meeting DATE: 5/22/19
LOCATION: 1441 Schilling Place, Salinas CA, Saffron Conference Room TIME: 9:00AM-11:00AM CONFERENCE CALL:
• Meeting link: https://monterey-county-oes.my.webex.com/monterey-county- oes.my/j.php?MTID=mcabf817afb7d21224a71a6b9bb19a830
• Phone: +1-510-338-9438
• Meeting number/ Access code: 625 637 402
• Password: ZbaMhUkm
• Host key: 131101
AGENDA
1. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS Gerry Malais, Monterey Co. OES 09:00
2. HAZARD MITIGATION OVERVIEW Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES 09:10 • Purpose: Review purpose and scope of hazard mitigation efforts. • Outcomes: Identify short and long-term outcomes of effective hazard mitigation planning efforts.
3. GRANT UPDATE Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES 09:20
• Purpose: Review grant application milestones; provide status update of grant application; discuss next steps if grant is obligated; review proposed reimbursement amount; review eligible activities; recommendations for tracking time and resources.
• Outcomes: All jurisdictions should begin tracking time and resources assigned to hazard mitigation planning activities.
4. PLAN UPDATE PROCESS Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES 09:30 • Purpose: Review Code of Federal Regulations; discuss the planning timeline, significant dates, and milestones.
• Outcomes: Consensus on planning timeline, milestones, and responsibilities.
2 5. PLANNING MEETINGS Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES 09:40 • Purpose: Discuss Steering Committee participants and meetings; discuss and plan jurisdiction specific meetings; and discuss technical expert/hazard specific meetings; review organization chart.
• Outcomes: Identify quantity of meetings, dates, times, and members of the Steering Committee, Jurisdiction Specific Planning Teams, and Technical / Hazard Specific planning meetings.
6. PUBLIC OUTREACH STRATEGY Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES Lubna Mohammad, Monterey Co. OES
09:50
• Purpose: Discuss public outreach requirements and proposed strategy; present public outreach toolkit; review hazard mitigation website and jurisdiction specific webpages.
• Outcomes: Identify quantity and scope of public outreach per jurisdiction; provide guidance on overall public outreach strategy.
7. GENERAL PLAN SAFETY ELEMENT Capt. Gene Potkey, CAL FIRE Capt. Kevin Lindo, CAL FIRE
10:15
• Purpose: Review General Plan Safety Element requirements for MJHMP update process; Discuss integration and adoption of MJHMP into General Plan Safety Element; Review fire hazard severity zones; subdivision map act; CEQA. • Outcomes: Identify requirements, deliverables and review process.
8. NEXT MEETING Kelsey Scanlon, Monterey Co. OES 10:55
• Next Meeting TBD - grant obligation pending
9. ADJOURN 11:00
1 MEETING INFORMATION
MEETING: Steering Committee Meeting #1 DATE: 01/22/20
LOCATION: 1322 Natividad Rd, Salinas CA TIME: 9:00AM-11:00AM CONFERENCE CALL:
• https://montereycty.zoom.us/j/256487941
• Dial: 1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
• Meeting ID: 256 487 941
AGENDA
1. Welcome and Introductions
2. Grant Update
3. Hazard Mitigation Overview
• Handout: Review FEMA Evaluation Of 2016 Plan
4. Workplan
• Handout: Progress Tracker
Activity Timeframe
Community & Public Outreach May 2019 – March 2021
Update Period January 2020 – August 2020
Plan Review & Revisions September 2020 – March 2021
Approval March 2021 – December 2021
Adoption December 2021 – December 2022
Closeout January 2022
5. Planning Meetings
a. Decision: Approve Workplan and Planning Process
Pre-Planning Meeting May 22, 2019
Initial Planning Meeting # 1 January 22, 2020
Planning Meeting #2 February 19, 2020
Planning Meeting #3 March 18, 2020
Planning Meeting #4 April 15, 2020
Planning Meeting #5 May 20, 2020
Final Planning Meeting #6 July 15, 2020
Final Planning Meeting #7 August 12, 2020
2 6. Roles, Responsibilities, Tasks
• 35 Tasks
• Handout: Planning Task List
7. Public Outreach Strategy
• Public Information Resources
• Handout: Review and Approve Public Outreach Strategy
• Review Public Forum Outcomes
• Public Outreach Action Items
8. Stakeholder Forum
• June 5, 2020
• Handout: 2016 Stakeholder List
9. Information Requirements
• Executive Summary Introduction
o Decision: Approve Organization of Plan
• Community Profile
• Hazard Analysis & Maps
o Decision: Inclusion of new hazards (Power Disruption, Acts of Violence/Terrorism, Train Derailment, Public Health)
• Vulnerability Analysis
• Capability Assessment
• Mitigation Strategy / Appendices
• Maintenance
10. Next Meeting
Next Meeting:
• Planning Meeting #2 | February 19, 2020 | 9:00am-11:00am | 1322 Natividad Rd, Salinas CA
Action Items:
• Kelsey to send out presentation, handouts and follow up material. • Publish 1 Press Release Announcing Update
• Identify Public Outreach Event
• Review Community Profile Chapter
• Submit updates by February 22, 2020 COB
11. Adjourn
1 MEETING INFORMATION
MEETING: Steering Committee Meeting #2 DATE: 02/19/20
LOCATION: 1322 Natividad Rd, Salinas CA TIME: 9:00AM-11:00AM CONFERENCE CALL:
• https://montereycty.zoom.us/j/656290816
• +1 669 900 6833
• Meeting ID: 656 290 816
AGENDA
1. Welcome and Introductions
2. Grant Update
3. Workplan
• Progress on Schedule
• Handout: Progress Tracker
Action Items:
• Jurisdictions to submit documentation of Jurisdiction Planning Meeting Activity Timeframe
Community & Public Outreach May 2019 – March 2021
Update Period January 2020 – August 2020
Plan Review & Revisions September 2020 – March 2021
Approval March 2021 – December 2021
Adoption December 2021 – December 2022
Closeout January 2022
4. 5. Public Outreach Strategy
Action Items:
• Kelsey to send Press Release and Social Media Language on 2/19/20 • The following jurisdictions still need to identify a date for a Public Forum or Governing Body Presentation: Carmel-by-The-Sea, Del Rey Oaks, Greenfield, King City, Marina, Monterey, Salinas, Sand City, Soledad.
6. Community Profile Review
• Draft attached for review.
• New to the Chapter:
o Cover page and format.
2 o Addition of Plan Requirements Boxes throughout the plan. o Addition of “References and Resources” Section in each chapter. o Update of census information; new census information (i.e. county-to-county commute, native language statistics, poverty, health).
o Addition of Disabilities, Access, and Functional Needs Demographic Information o Addition of Social Vulnerability Assessment of the community. o Addition of housing and infrastructure trends
o Addition of participating special districts in the “Community Descriptions” o Integration of Community priorities based on the results of the public outreach strategy. • Action Items:
o County to complete social vulnerability, disabilities, and community priorities sections.
o County to include language regarding multi-family use of single structures and occupancy of illegal structures.
o The following jurisdictions still need to submit changes: City of Gonzales, City of Greenfield, King City, Marina, Monterey County Water Resources Agency.
7. Information Requirements
• Decision: Modification of planning timeline. See Task List.
Action Items:
• Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 Capability Assessment Survey by May 13, 2020. • Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 Safe Growth Survey by May 13, 2020. • Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 NFIP Survey by May 13, 2020. • County to update and distribute Hazard Analysis Chapter for review at March meeting.
8. Next Steps
Next Meeting:
• Planning Meeting #3 | March 18, 2020| 9:00am-11:00am | 1322 Natividad Rd, Salinas CA
Pre-Planning Meeting May 22, 2019
Initial Planning Meeting # 1 January 22, 2020
Planning Meeting #2 February 19, 2020
Planning Meeting #3 March 18, 2020
Planning Meeting #4 April 15, 2020
Planning Meeting #5 May 20, 2020
Stakeholder Forum June 5, 2020
Final Planning Meeting #6 July 15, 2020
Final Planning Meeting #7 August 12, 2020
9. Adjourn
1 MEETING INFORMATION
MEETING: Steering Committee Meeting #8 DATE: April 15, 2021 LOCATION: Virtual or In-Person (1322 Natividad Rd, Salinas CA) TIME: 9:00-10:30AM CONFERENCE CALL Information:
• https://montereycty.zoom.us/j/97936426204?pwd=RytIeW44bXhRemRkWWNNMkNGMVF6Zz09 • Password: 311561
• 1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)
• Meeting ID: 979 3642 6204
AGENDA
1. Welcome and Introductions
2. Grant Update
3. Staffing Update
4. Updated Timeline
5. Public Meetings
Action Items: The following jurisdictions still need to identify a date for a Public Forum or Governing Body Presentation: Carmel-by-The-Sea, Del Rey Oaks, Marina, Salinas, Seaside, Soledad.
6. Jurisdiction Mitigation Strategies Listening Sessions Action Items:
• Send Date for Jurisdiction Stakeholder Listening Session • OES will send out agenda and calendar invite for meeting
7. Information Requirements
Action Items:
• Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 Capability Assessment Survey by • Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 Safe Growth Survey by • Jurisdictions to complete and submit 1 NFIP Survey by • Jurisdictions to review and update critical facilities list. • Jurisdictions to complete and submit land use and development trend information • County to update and distribute Hazard Analysis Chapter for review at May meeting • County to provide updated format of City Appendices at May meeting
2 8. Next Steps
Steering Committee: Pre-Planning Meeting / Public
Outreach Strategy Development
Complete May 22, 2019
Steering Committee: Initial Planning Meeting # 1 Complete January 22, 2020 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #2 Complete February 19, 2020 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #3 Cancelled March-20 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #4 Cancelled April-20 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #5 Cancelled May-20 Stakeholder Committee Meeting Cancelled June-20
Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #6 Complete July 15, 2020 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #7 Cancelled August-20 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #8 On Schedule April15, 2021 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #9 On Schedule May 20, 2021 Jurisdiction Mitigation Strategy Listening Sessions On Schedule June-August 21 Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #10 (FINAL
Before DC)
On Schedule September23, 2021
Steering Committee: Planning Meeting #11 (FINAL) On Schedule November11, 2021
9. Adjourn
PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK