HTMA Downtown 2022 Update Initial Findings — Salinas City Council, September 13, 2022

M EMORANDUM
To: City of Salinas
From: David Zehnder and Kate O’Beirne
Subject: HTMA Downtown 2022 Update—Initial Findings—
August 2022; EPS #222102
Date: August 30, 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) was retained by the City of Salinas (City) to conduct a short-term update in advance of a more comprehensive update of the Housing
Target Market Analysis (HTMA) for Downtown Salinas.

The City is located in the Salinas Valley and is the most populated community in Monterey County (County). As such, it faces acute pressures for additional affordable housing in all its districts, including downtown. At the present time, inclusionary housing is exempted in this area to allow sufficient time for “early-adopters” to successfully respond to the combined market/regulatory environment.

A central objective of this update is to determine whether the time is right to impose inclusionary requirements of the City on Downtown projects, or to allow additional time for the above- referenced market response to occur. A key conclusion to this evaluation, discussed below, is that the inclusionary housing exemption should be extended and reconsidered
at the time of the Housing Element update.

As is well-known, the City is under pressure by the State to demonstrate its ability to facilitate affordable housing.

However, it is important to have an eye toward private sector feasibility as various regulations are considered for housing prototypes in the downtown environment.

The HTMA examines existing socioeconomic trends and
residential real estate market conditions to gain an
understanding of local dynamics that will influence demand and test the feasibility of residential development in the Downtown Study Area to help determine potential approaches to an implementation of inclusionary requirements Downtown.

Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 2
Initial key findings derived from EPS’s market study along with a detailed technical analysis table set are presented in the sections below. At the time the City begins its evaluation of the housing element and corresponding inclusionary policy, EPS will update these initial findings and continue to solicit input or requests for additional information to finalize a draft report. The intention is to allow an opportunity to compare notes and expectations with the City before finalizing this initial update. An expanded report would provide ample time and opportunity to more fully assess evolving market conditions, regulatory opportunities and constraints, and private sector feasibility responses.

Recommendations
Since about 2020, the housing development in Downtown Salinas has started to gain momentum following the completion of the initial HTMA in 2017. Recent residential development projects, such as the Bruhn and Rabobank buildings, which are currently under construction and together will provide an addition of about 70 units to the Downtown, and there are additional units in the pipeline.

The below examination of the existing conditions and pro forma analysis predicated on the larger city market, as well as discussions with local developers, indicate that at this time implementing inclusionary housing Downtown would constrain the current momentum of residential development in the Downtown as the early adopters establish proof of market in this nascent environment.

The City’s population increases have contributed to an undersupply of housing units reflected by rising housing costs and a continuous decline in residential vacancy rates since 2010, with a low rate of 3.3 percent currently for all unit types. The undersupply of housing most prominently affects underserved populations, including students, teachers, young families, low-income families and individuals, seniors, people with disabilities, and the unhoused population indicating the need for focused strategies to increase a variety of housing types at different levels of affordability. Providing affordable housing, whether subsidized by the government or affordable by design (e.g., housing that is affordable based on physical design, tenancy, or financing elements), is a necessity now with more than half of renters and more than a quarter of homeowners defined as housing cost burdened.

The initial feasibility analysis shows some positive indicators without costs associated with inclusionary requirements, especially for the development of micro rental units and missing middle ownership product, though our preliminary recommendation is to continue to provide exemptions for parking, outdoor space, and inclusionary requirements for residential development within the Central City Overlay as well as Adaptive Reuse. Extending these exemptions will continue to provide incentive to build in the Downtown, as discussions with developers revealed that these exemptions are a large factor in getting the residential Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 3
projects "to pencil". While providing inclusionary housing is extremely important at this time, the addition of all net new units to the Downtown can help alleviate some of the demand. The City should hold off on implementing inclusionary requirements until the examination of the housing element and inclusionary ordinance, which will then provide an opportunity to analyze the market, product types, and how the current policies affect development more closely.

Existing Socioeconomic Conditions
 The City has experienced significant growth in its population and household populations, with a slight decline in persons per household over the last 12 years. With its central location and role as County Seat, the City is the most populous city in the County, home to about 160,000 residents as of 2022. Over the past decade, the City added almost 9,500 residents and more than 2,880 households, comprising more than half of the County’s population growth (as of 2022) and almost 40 percent of household growth.

Persons per household in both the City and the County declined by about 1 percent. See Table 1-1.
 Household incomes have increased over the past decade. Median household income in the City increased by about 7.5 percent between 2010 and 2020, rising from $63,180 to $67,900 (in 2020 dollars). The increase in incomes is also reflected while looking at where City households lie in the income range categories. The fastest growing income range category was for households earning $200,000 or more annually with an absolute increase of over 1,905 households and the percentage of households earning $100,000 or more annually increased from 17 percent up to 30 percent. See Table 1-2.  Resident worker growth in Salinas was more than double the growth in jobs within Salinas. The City has almost 62,600 resident workers with an increase of over 10,000 workers between 2010 and 2019 compared to the City’s 58,800 jobs, which only grew by 4,600 over the same period. The top industry for both resident workers and jobs remains Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting. The top growth industry for resident workers was Health Care and Social Assistance, with the addition of 2,900 resident workers, matched as the top growth industry for jobs with an increase of 2,430 jobs.

While nearly 60 percent of employed residents commute outside of the City for work about 57 percent of local jobs are filled by workers that do not live in the City. Amongst the 58,800 jobs in the City, about 43 percent (25,350) are residents who both live and work in the City, and the remaining are in- commuters (33,380) traveling into the City for work from cities and CDPs such as Soledad, Prunedale, Seaside, Marina, San José, Greenfield, Monterey, and Hollister. See Tables 1-3, 1-4, and 1-5.

Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 4
 A little more than half of the households in Salinas are renter- occupied dwelling units but detached single dwelling units are the most occupied unit type. Approximately 52 percent of households in the City are renter-occupied following a similar pattern to the County’s 48 percent. Approximately 57 percent of all households live in detached single dwelling units and about 28 percent of those are renter-occupied. Single detached dwelling units comprise 30 percent of renter-occupied households, making single dwelling units the second most occupied unit type for renters following multifamily buildings with 5 or more units (44 percent). See Table 2-1.
 Almost half of the households in Salinas have 4 or more occupants, and overcrowding has increased by almost 20 percent over the last decade. In both renter- and owner-occupied households the highest proportion of households are those with 5 or more occupants, more than 50 percent of renter-households, and 42 percent of owner-occupied households have 4 or more occupants. An overcrowded household is defined by the U.S. Census as having 1 or more persons per room (excluding bathrooms and kitchens). The number of households considered overcrowded has increased in both renter- and owner-occupied households, by 28 percent and 11 percent, respectively for a combined increase of 20 percent. See Table 2-2 and Table 2-3.
 Most renter-occupied households in the County are considered rent- burdened. Of the renter-occupied households, about 55 percent are considered rent-burdened, which means that a household pays more than 30 percent of its income on housing costs. Of these rent-burdened households, about 26 percent are considered severely cost-burdened, which means they pay more than 50 percent of their income on rent. Approximately 33 percent of owner-occupied households are considered cost burdened. See Table 2-4 and Table 2-5.

Housing Market Trends
 The City’s housing inventory is comprised mainly of single-family detached units. The City’s housing inventory is estimated to include 55 percent single detached dwelling units and 26 percent multifamily projects with 5 or more units. The supply allocation by type has remained relatively static over the last decade. See Table 3-1.
 Salinas’ increase in housing supply has not kept pace with household growth leading to a decline in available units. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development estimates 1,136 net new housing units between 2010 and 2021, increasing the total supply by about 3 percent. With significant household growth over the same period of about 2,890 households, vacancy rates have decreased from around 5 to 6 percent to about 3 percent, Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 5
indicating a tight market with very little product available to existing or future residents looking to move, especially compared to the County’s vacancy rate of about 9 percent. See Tables 3-2 and 3-3.
 The housing market in Salinas has become much more expensive since the onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic. While Salinas falls in the middle of affordability within the County’s housing supply, home prices have increased 196 percent since 2012 (2022 average median sales price is $684,000) and rents by 57 percent since 2010 (2022 average asking rent is $1,760) as more people are seeking affordable housing markets and taking advantage of moving to more remote locations by being able to work from home. The housing market is tight with overall low vacancy and an average monthly inventory of for-sale units decreasing from over 1,200 available units to 370 units since 2012. See Tables 3-4, 3-5, and 3-6.
 Homeownership in the City is becoming less affordable as housing prices continue to increase, rental units generally present a more affordable option for residents. About 13 percent of City households have the financial capability (annual household incomes of $150,000 or more) to purchase a median-or-higher priced home in the City based on current housing prices ($683,800), whereas approximately 50 percent of households can afford (annual household incomes of $70,400) to rent an average-or- higher priced unit of $1,760. See Table 3-7 and Table 1-2.

For decades, California has faced a housing crisis related to its significant unhoused population and rising housing costs. For those living in poverty, high rental rates have translated into large proportions of their income allocated to housing costs, leaving little remaining for basic living expenses, let alone bolstering savings accounts to build wealth.
1 Rising home sales prices have
translated into larger down payment requirements, leading to homeownership challenges for households with median and higher incomes.2 These challenges point to a root problem of limited housing supply. Indeed, several recent reports have estimated an undersupply of housing in the State that ranges from about 3 million to 4 million units. This undersupply represents the amount of housing that was needed over the last several decades to maintain housing costs in

1 Kimberlin, Sara and Esi Hutchful, 2019. New Census Figures Show More Than 1 in 6 Californians Struggle to Afford Basic Necessities. California Budget and Policy Center. [online] Available at https://calbudgetcenter.org/resources/number-of-californians-living-in-poverty-has- been-declining-but-more-than-1-in-6-residents-still-struggle-to-afford-basic- necessities/#:~:text=Approximately%207.1%20million%20Californians%20lived,Supplemental% 20Poverty%20Measure%20(SPM) [Accessed January 2021].
2 Levin, Matt, 2021. Commentary: Five things I’ve learned covering California’s housing crisis that you should know. Cal Matters. [online] Available at https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/01/california-housing-crisis-lessons/ [Accessed January 2021].

Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 6
alignment with the rest of the country.3 4 With an overall housing shortage within the entire state and the above-referenced socioeconomic and residential market conditions within the City it is a critical time to address the potential inclusion of affordable housing for future development within Downtown Salinas. Below is a preliminary analysis to help start this conversation, which tests the feasibility of residential development in Downtown Salinas and the inclusion of affordable units.

Residential Feasibility Pro Forma
Analysis
Based on the socioeconomic and residential market assessments presented in the previous section, EPS performed a financial feasibility analysis to test the viability of different development prototypes. To gain an understanding of the relative financial viability of the various land use concepts evaluated, EPS used a measure of financial feasibility commonly referred to as a “residual land value analysis,” (RLV) which models the revenues achieved by operating or selling a particular building to arrive at an estimated building value, or “finished real estate value.” For residential ownership products, the finished real estate value is based on the estimated sales price of the unit. For rental residential products, finished real estate values are estimated using valuation techniques that consider annual net operating income. A prototype that would be considered feasible will have a RLV equal to about 20 to 30 percent of total asset value (finished lot plus structure).

This analysis assumes that the developer obtained the land at no cost.

Capitalization rates, revenue, and cost assumptions are based on current market conditions, but are subject to change with fluctuations in the market, such as the rising interest rates, which have been taken into consideration.

It is important to note that the feasibility findings presented in this section are preliminary and additional analysis will be needed to evaluate the financial viability of specific land use programs.

For purposes of the financial feasibility analysis and based on the residential real estate market dynamics, EPS evaluated the financial feasibility of the following land use prototypes.

3 Taylor, Mac, 2015. California’s High Housing Costs: Causes and Consequences. Legislative Analyst Office. [online] Available at https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2015/finance/housing- costs/housing-costs.pdf [Accessed January 2021].
4 Dillon, Liam, 2018. California lawmakers killed one of the biggest housing bills in the country.

Los Angeles Times. [online] Available at https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-big-housing- bill-dies-20180417-story.html [Accessed January 2021].

Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 7
Renter-Occupied Units
 Very High-Density Micro Apartment Units: a very high-density rental product at a density of approximately 180 dwelling units per acre with units averaging 270 square feet.
 High-Density Apartment Units: a traditional high density apartment complex project with a density of 60 units per acre.

Owner-Occupied Units
 High-Density Attached Units (Condominium): a traditional high density condominium project with a density of 60 units per acre.  Medium-Density Attached Units (Townhomes/Rowhouse): a medium density attached townhomes/row house project with a density of 30 units per acre.

Appendix A presents the assumptions of the financial model that evaluates the feasibility of each development prototype.

The financial feasibility outcomes from Tables 4-1, Table 4-2, and Table 4-3 are summarized below:
 Current construction costs are extremely high and are projected to continue to increase through 2022 for a total estimated 14.1 percent increase over 2021. Cost escalations are predicted to continue to increase in 2023 and 2024 but dropping down to lower rates around 2 to 4 percent. 5 6
 The exorbitant construction costs are hindering the feasibility of both the market rate rental and ownership RD-60 prototypes, both have a negative residual land value.
 Based on the RLV, micro-rental units show the best prospect of feasibility, though this is a somewhat new product type that has been untested in the Salinas market.
 Under certain circumstances, RD-30 ownership product may be viable.

This may require a low master developer land basis or other factors that

5 Fahey, Ashley, The National Observer: Real Estate Edition, “Report: Construction costs may escalate 14.1% this year, but relief expected soon,” August 25, 2022 [accessed online August 2022] https://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2022/08/25/construction-costs-increase- this-year.html.
6 EPS relied on a variety of sources to estimate approximate construction costs, including the Saylor 2020 Construction Cost Manuel, updated for inflation and adapted to the Monterey region, interviews of builders in the Monterey and Bay Area regions, and discussions with the City. See Appendix A Table A-2.

Memorandum: City of Salinas HTMA Downtown—Initial Findings August 2022
Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. (EPS) 8
reduce costs and improve revenue performance and could require a City write-down if sought in the near-term.
 Actual rents and home sales prices may outperform that evaluated here, which would improve feasibility outcomes substantially. This analysis calibrates rents and home sales prices to current income demographics, highlighting the challenges associated with delivering housing targeted at the “missing-middle” income segment.
 After folding in the existing inclusionary requirement options that are currently imposed on residential development outside of the City Center Overlay District per Municipal Code Ordinance Chapter 17 Article III. Section 17-8, the already negative residual land values are reduced further and the RD- 30 ownership product RLV becomes negative. The only exception is the micro unit prototype using the inclusionary fee option of providing 12 percent units as Section 8 and paying the housing impact fee.

Again, it is important to note that the general measures of financial feasibility offered in this report are intended to serve as an initial diagnostic comparing the relative viability of various residential prototypes to inform housing policy. This analysis is highly sensitive to assumptions made regarding achievable real estate values and development costs. It is possible that more fully developed concepts targeting specific niche markets could outperform the generic speculative concepts modeled here. Conversely, if development costs are substantially higher than estimated here, or sales prices and lease rates are substantially lower, the actual feasibility outlook could worsen.

Technical Analysis Organization
The technical analysis is presented in the following sections:

1. Table 1-1 through Table 1-6 present an analysis of existing conditions in the City and the County, including population, households, income, employment and jobs, jobs-housing balance, and commuting patterns.

2. Table 2-1 through Table 2-5 examine existing housing tenure by various demographic and socioeconomic variables, as well as an assessment of rent- and cost-burdened households.

3. Table 3-1 through Table 3-7 present a real estate market overview to provide context to current residential market conditions in the City.

4. Table 4-1 through Table 4-3 provide the static pro forma examining the feasibility of both renter- and owner-occupied prototypes in the City and the addition of inclusionary requirements.

List of Tables
Existing Conditions
Table 1-1 Population an d Household Trends .................................................. 9 Table 1-2 Household Income by Range ...................................................... 10 Table 1-3 City of Salinas Job Trends .......................................................... 11 Table 1-4 City of Salinas Re sident Worker Trends ........................................ 12 Table 1-5 Commuting Patterns .................................................................. 13 Table 1-6 Nonresident Worker Profile ......................................................... 14

Existing Housing Tenure
Table 2-1 Tenure by Units In Structure ...................................................... 15 Table 2-2 Household Size and Tenure ........................................................ 16 Table 2-3 Occupants per Room by Tenure .................................................. 17 Table 2-4 Overall Rent Burden .................................................................. 18 Table 2-5 Owner’s Costs as a Percentage of Household Income by Household Income .................................................................... 19

Real Estate Market Overview
Table 3-1 Units in Structure ...................................................................... 20 Table 3-2 Units Permit ted by Year ............................................................. 21 Table 3-3 Total Va cancy Rate ................................................................... 22 Table 3-4 Home Value Changes by County .................................................. 23 Table 3-5 For-Sale Housing Market Summary .............................................. 24 Table 3-6 Multifamily Hous ing Market Summary .......................................... 25 Table 3-7 Estimated Housing Unit Value Based on Income and Housing Costs in Monterey County .......................................................... 26

Static Pro Forma Feasibility
Table 4-1 Inclusionary Residential Development Static Pro Forma Summary .... 27 Table 4-2 Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Renter-Occupied Units (2 pages) ...... 28 Table 4-3 Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Owner-Occupied Units (2 pages) ...... 30 DRAFT
Table 1-1
City of Salinas
Downtown HTM
A
Population and Household Trends (2010-2022)
Item
Total
Population
Household
Population
Year-Over-Year
Population
Change Households
Year-Over-
Year
Household
Change
Persons
per
Household
[1]
Total
Population
Household
Population
Year-Over-
Year
Population
Change Households
Year-Over-
Year
Household
Change
Persons per
Household
[1]
Year
2010 150,441 147,976 - 40,387 -

3.66 415,057 393,814 - 124,899 -

3.15 2011 150,899 148,603 0.3% 40,417 0.1%

3.68 416,644 394,891 0.4% 124,984 0.1%

3.16 2012 153,286 151,057 1.6% 40,525 0.3%

3.73 422,621 400,631 1.4% 125,067 0.1%

3.20 2013 155,406 152,909 1.4% 40,495 (0.1%)

3.78 425,968 404,919 0.8% 124,695 (0.3%)

3.25 2014 156,532 154,055 0.7% 40,594 0.2%

3.80 427,733 407,663 0.4% 124,885 0.2%

3.26 2015 157,206 154,880 0.4% 40,641 0.1%

3.81 430,277 410,375 0.6% 125,204 0.3%

3.28 2016 158,973 156,750 1.1% 40,684 0.1%

3.85 435,185 414,591 1.1% 125,135 (0.1%)

3.31 2017 159,708 157,475 0.5% 40,665 (0.0%)

3.87 438,358 417,555 0.7% 125,358 0.2%

3.33 2018 159,846 157,605 0.1% 40,737 0.2%

3.87 438,639 418,163 0.1% 125,640 0.2%

3.33 2019 160,522 158,280 0.4% 40,777 0.1%

3.88 440,199 419,729 0.4% 126,116 0.4%

3.33 2020 161,577 159,198 0.7% 43,163 5.9%

3.69 440,393 420,316 0.0% 126,604 0.4%

3.32 2021 161,777 159,482 0.1% 43,084 (0.2%)

3.70 435,721 417,293 (1.1%) 131,316 3.7%

3.18 2022 159,932 157,569 (1.1%) 43,270 0.4%

3.64 433,716 413,361 (0.5%) 132,496 0.9% 3.12
Growth Estimates 2010-2022
Number 9,491 9,593 -- 2,883 -- (0.0) 18,659 19,547 -- 7,597 -- (0.0) % Change 6.3% 6.5% -- 7.1% -- (0.6%) 4.5% 5.0% -- 6.1% -- (1.1%) Avg. Annual Change 0.5% 0.5% -- 0.6% -- (0.1%) 0.4% 0.4% -- 0.5% -- (0.1%) Source: California Department of Finance Table E-5; EPS. [1] Includes household population only
.

City of Salinas Monterey County
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Table 1-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTM
A
Household Income by Range (2020 Estimate)
Item 2010 [1] % 2020 % % Change 2010 [1] % 2020 % % Change Income Range
<$15,000 4,019 9.8% 2,643 6.4% (34.2%) 10,872 8.7% 8,265 6.5% (24.0%) $15,000 - $24,999 5,208 12.7% 3,262 7.9% (37.4%) 12,121 9.7% 9,409 7.4% (22.4%) $25,000 - $34,999 4,798 11.7% 3,015 7.3% (37.2%) 11,996 9.6% 10,045 7.9% (16.3%) $35,000 - $49,999 6,151 15.0% 5,286 12.8% (14.1%) 17,245 13.8% 15,131 11.9% (12.3%) $50,000 - $74,999 8,284 20.2% 8,383 20.3% 1.2% 24,118 19.3% 24,159 19.0% 0.2% $75,000 - $99,999 5,413 13.2% 6,483 15.7% 19.8% 16,870 13.5% 18,056 14.2% 7.0% $100,000 - $149,999 4,921 12.0% 6,814 16.5% 38.5% 18,495 14.8% 20,981 16.5% 13.4% $150,000 - $199,999 1,435 3.5% 2,726 6.6% 89.9% 6,498 5.2% 9,791 7.7% 50.7% $200,000+ 779 1.9% 2,684 6.5% 244.5% 6,623 5.3% 11,317 8.9% 70.9% Total 41,009 100.0% 41,296 100.0% 0.7% 124,963 - 127,155 100.0% 1.8% Median Household Income in 2020$ $63,178 $67,914 7.5% $73,701 $71,015 -3.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020, Table S1901; EPS.
[1] The median household income for 2010 has been escalated to 2020 dollars using the CPI rate of 24.3% between 2010 and 2020.

City of Salinas Monterey County
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Table 1-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
City of Salinas Job Trends (2010 and 2019)
Item No. % No. % Change
Industry Secto
r
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 13,113 24.2% 12,122 20.6% (991) (0.9%) Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 6 0.0% 0 0.0% (6) (100.0%) Utilities 171 0.3% 109 0.2% (62) (4.9%)
Construction 1,036 1.9% 1,542 2.6% 506 4.5%
Manufacturing 2,567 4.7% 1,921 3.3% (646) (3.2%)
Wholesale Trade 1,726 3.2% 2,741 4.7% 1,015 5.3%
Retail Trade 5,245 9.7% 6,474 11.0% 1,229 2.4%
Transportation and Warehousing 924 1.7% 1,102 1.9% 178 2.0% Information 615 1.1% 657 1.1% 42 0.7%
Finance and Insurance 1,119 2.1% 884 1.5% (235) (2.6%)
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 359 0.7% 366 0.6% 7 0.2% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,268 2.3% 1,339 2.3% 71 0.6% Management of Companies and Enterprises 628 1.2% 558 1.0% (70) (1.3%) Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 2,053 3.8% 2,574 4.4% 521 2.5% Educational Services 5,293 9.8% 6,240 10.6% 947 1.8%
Health Care and Social Assistance 6,435 11.9% 8,862 15.1% 2,427 3.6% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 409 0.8% 463 0.8% 54 1.4% Accommodation and Food Services 3,147 5.8% 4,254 7.2% 1,107 3.4% Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 2,784 5.1% 1,589 2.7% (1,195) (6.0%) Public Administration 5,204 9.6% 4,936 8.4% (268) (0.6%) Total 54,102 100.0% 58,733 100.0% 4,631 0.9%
worker trends
Source: US Census LEHD OnTheMap, 2019; EPS.

Industry Trends
City of Salinas
2010-2019
Average
Annual
Growth
2010 2019
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Table 1-4
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
City of Salinas Resident Worker Trends (2010 and 2019)
Item No. % No. % Change
Industry Secto
r
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 9,956 19.0% 10,200 16.3% 244 0.3% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 70 0.1% 57 0.1% (13) (2.3%) Utilities 214 0.4% 222 0.4% 8 0.4%
Construction 1,765 3.4% 3,304 5.3% 1,539 7.2%
Manufacturing 2,924 5.6% 3,348 5.3% 424 1.5%
Wholesale Trade 1,950 3.7% 2,535 4.1% 585 3.0%
Retail Trade 5,629 10.7% 6,457 10.3% 828 1.5%
Transportation and Warehousing 1,260 2.4% 1,718 2.7% 458 3.5% Information 627 1.2% 692 1.1% 65 1.1%
Finance and Insurance 995 1.9% 927 1.5% (68) (0.8%)
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 555 1.1% 651 1.0% 96 1.8% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,706 3.2% 2,013 3.2% 307 1.9% Management of Companies and Enterprises 611 1.2% 775 1.2% 164 2.7% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 2,460 4.7% 3,485 5.6% 1,025 3.9% Educational Services 4,462 8.5% 5,354 8.6% 892 2.0%
Health Care and Social Assistance 5,443 10.4% 8,347 13.3% 2,904 4.9% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 657 1.3% 829 1.3% 172 2.6% Accommodation and Food Services 4,507 8.6% 6,096 9.7% 1,589 3.4% Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 2,808 5.3% 1,837 2.9% (971) (4.6%) Public Administration 3,937 7.5% 3,735 6.0% (202) (0.6%) Total 52,536 100.0% 62,582 100.0% 10,046 2.0%
worker trends
Source: US Census LEHD OnTheMap, 2019; EPS.

Resident Worker Trends
City of Salinas
2010-2019
Average
Annual
Growth
2010 2019
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Table 1-5
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Commuting Patterns: City of Salinas (2019)
Item Count % of Total Count % of Total
Resident Workers
Residents both Living and Employed in the Study Area 22,143 42.1% 25,354 40.5% Residents Living in the Study Area but Employed Outside (Outflow) 30,393 57.9% 37,228 59.5% Subtotal Resident Workers 52,536 100.0% 62,582 100.0%
Employmen
t
Residents both Living and Employed in the Study Area 22,143 40.9% 25,354 43.2% Workers Employed in the Study Area but Living Outside 31,959 59.1% 33,379 56.8% Total Employment in Area (Inflow) 54,102 100.0% 58,733 100.0% Inflow/Outflow Ratio [1] 178.0% 157.8%
Source: U.S. Census OnTheMap 2019; U.S. Census ACS 5-Year Estimates Table S0801 2019; EPS. 2019
[1] The inflow/outflow ratio is the percentage of residents living in the specified area that travel outside of that area for work compared to the total employment for that specified area. 2010
City of Salinas
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Table 1-6
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Nonresident Worker Profile (2010 and 2019)
Item Nonres. Workers % of Total Nonres. Worker
s % of Total
Salinas Jobs Filled
by Nonresident Workers 54,102 100% 58,733 100%
Worker Ages
29 Years or Younger 12,959 24% 12,973 22%
30 Years to 54 Years 30,507 56% 31,402 53%
55 Years or Older 10,636 20% 14,358 24%
Total 54,102 100% 58,733 100%
Monthly Worker Earnings
$1,250 or Less 13,846 26% 12,295 21%
$1,251 to $3,333 20,791 38% 18,464 31%
$3,334 or More 19,465 36% 27,974 48%
Total 54,102 100% 58,733 100%
Worker Industry Class
"Goods Producing" [1] 16,722 31% 15,585 27%
"Trade, Transportation, and Utilities" [2] 8,066 15% 10,426 18% "All Other Services" [3] 29,314 54% 32,722 56%
Total 54,102 100% 58,733 100%
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Statistics for 2019; EPS. [3] Includes all other NAICS industry classes not listed above. [1] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (NAICS 11); Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (NAICS 21); Construction (NAICS 23); and Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) as industries in this industry class.
[2] BLS identifies Wholesale Trade (NAICS 42); Retail Trade (NAICS 44-45); Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48-49); and Utilities (NAICS 22) as industries in this industry class. 2010 2019
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Table 2-1
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Tenure by Units In Structure (2020)
Item
Owner-
Occupied
Renter
Occupied
Share
Renter
Occupied
Owner-
Occupied
Renter
Occupied
Share
Renter
Occupied
Unit Type
Detached Single-Family 17,213 6,513 27.5% 58,100 22,528 27.9% Attached Single-Family 857 1,813 67.9% 2,819 5,227 65.0% Duplex 31 918 96.7% 272 3,525 92.8% 3 to 4 unit building 323 2,256 87.5% 697 7,364 91.4% 5 + unit building 132 9,526 98.6% 811 20,975 96.3% Other 1,210 504 29.4% 3,647 2,038 35.8% Total 19,766 21,530 52.1% 66,346 61,657 48.2% Source: American Community Survey 2016-2020 5-Year Estimates, Table B25032; EPS.

City of Salinas Monterey County
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Table 2-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Household Size and Tenure (2010 and 2020)
Item Total % Total %
Renter-Occupied Households
1-person 4,267 19.8% 3,544 16.5% (16.94%)
2-person 3,699 17.2% 3,757 17.5% 1.57%
3-person 3,504 16.2% 3,341 15.5% (4.65%)
4-person 4,269 19.8% 4,569 21.2% 7.03%
5+ -person 5,828 27.0% 6,319 29.3% 8.42%
Total 21,567 100.0% 21,530 100.0% (0.17%)
Owner-Occupied
1-person 3,224 16.6% 3,060 15.5% (5.09%)
2-person 5,122 26.3% 5,008 25.3% (2.23%)
3-person 3,301 17.0% 3,346 16.9% 1.36%
4-person 3,517 18.1% 3,310 16.7% (5.89%)
5+ -person 4,278 22.0% 5,042 25.5% 17.86%
Total 19,442 100.0% 19,766 100.0% 1.67%
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B25009; EPS. 2010 2020 Change
(2010-2020)
City of Salinas
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Table 2-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Occupants per Room by Tenure: City of Salinas (2010 and 2020) Item Total % Total %
OCCUPANTS PER ROOM [1]
Renter-occupied
Less than 0.5 6,856 31.8% 6,038 28.0% (11.9%)

0.51 - 1.00 9,804 45.5% 9,559 44.4% (2.5%)

1.01 - 1.50 3,168 14.7% 4,249 19.7% 34.1%

1.51 - 2.00 1,392 6.5% 1,267 5.9% (9.0%)

2.01 or more 347 1.6% 417 1.9% 20.2%
Total 21,567 100% 21,530 100% (0.2%)
Subtotal Overcrowded 4,907 22.8% 5,933 27.6% 20.9% Owner-occupied
Less than 0.5 10,529 54.2% 10,297 52.1% (2.2%)

0.51 - 1.00 7,152 36.8% 7,287 36.9% 1.9%

1.01 - 1.50 1,273 6.5% 1,664 8.4% 30.7%

1.51 - 2.00 456 2.3% 260 1.3% (43.0%)

2.01 or more 32 0.2% 258 1.3% -
Total 19,442 100% 19,766 100% 1.7%
Subtotal Overcrowded 1,761 9.1% 2,182 11.0% 23.9% Total
Less than 0.5 17,385 80.6% 16,335 39.6% (6.0%)

0.51 - 1.00 16,956 78.6% 16,846 40.8% (0.6%)

1.01 - 1.50 4,441 20.6% 5,913 14.3% 33.1%

1.51 - 2.00 1,848 8.6% 1,527 3.7% (17.4%)

2.01 or more 379 1.8% 675 1.6% 78.1%
Total 41,009 190% 41,296 100.0% 0.7%
Subtotal Overcrowded 6,668 16.3% 8,115 19.7% 21.7% Source: American Community Survey Table 5-Year estimates Table B25014; EPS. 2010 2020 Change
(2010-2020)
[1] The US Census Bureau defines an overcrowded housing unit as having 1 or more persons per room (excluding bathrooms and kitchens). Units with more than 1.5 persons per room are considered severely overcrowded.

City of Salinas
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Table 2-4
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Overall Rent Burden (2020)
Item
Total Renter
Households
% of Total Renter
Households
Rent as a Percentage of
Household Income [1]
Less than 30% of Income 9,355 44.7%
30% to 50% of Income 6,098 29.2%
More than 50% of Income 5,465 26.1%
Total Renter Households 20,918 100.0%
City of Salinas
Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Table B25070; EPS.
[1] The US Department of Housing and Urban Development defines a household spending more than 30% of their income on housing as "rent burdened." Households spending more than 50% of their income on housing are considered "severely rent burdened." Approximately 612 households were not computed.

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Table 2-5
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Owner's Costs as a Percentage of Household Income by Household Income (2020) Item
Owner-Occupied
Households
Share within
Income Bracket
Share with
Mortage
Housing Cost Burden by Income Bracket [1]
Less than $20,000
Less than 30% 183 16.7% 3.8%
30% or more 911 83.3% 56.1%
Total 1,094 100.0% 47.3%
$20,000 to $49,999
Less than 30% 1,118 36.9% 10.3%
30% or more 1,909 63.1% 83.9%
Total 3,027 100.0% 56.7%
$50,000 to $74,999
Less than 30% 1,849 53.7% 43.6%
30% or more 1,597 46.3% 100.0%
Total 3,446 100.0% 69.8%
$75,000 or More
Less than 30% 8,971 84.7% 74.7%
30% or more 1,621 15.3% 100.0%
Total 10,592 100.0% 78.6%
Totals
Less than 30% 12,121 66.7% 63.0%
30% or more 6,038 33.3% 88.3%
Totals 18,159 100.0% 71.8%
Source: American Community Survey Year Estimates, Table B25101; EPS.

City of Salinas
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Table 3-1
City of Salinas
Downtown HTM
A
Units in Structure (2010 and 2022)
Item Units % of Total Units
% of
Total Total % Units
% of
Total Units
% of
Total Total %
Units in Structure [1]
Single Detached Units 23,540 55.2% 24,377 54.9% 837 3.6% 87,355 63.3% 90,834 63.2% 3,479 4.0% Single Attached Units 2,731 6.4% 2,799 6.3% 68 2.5% 8,902 6.5% 9,039 6.3% 137 1.5% 2-4 Units 4,165 9.8% 4,307 9.7% 142 3.4% 12,388 9.0% 12,830 8.9% 442 3.6% 5+ Units 10,864 25.5% 11,541 26.0% 677 6.2% 23,593 17.1% 25,122 17.5% 1,529 6.5% Mobile Homes 1,351 3.2% 1,381 3.1% 30 2.2% 5,672 4.1% 5,806 4.0% 134 2.4% Total Housing Units 42,651 100.0% 44,405 100.0% 1,754 4.1% 137,910 100.0% 143,631 100.0% 5,721 4.1% Average annual Units 146 3
Source: California Department of Finance Table E-5; EPS. [1] Per DOF, the 2010 and 2022 figures differ significantly because they are derived from different benchmarks. The 2010-2020 file is based on the 2010 Census benchmark and has not been resolved for errors. The 2020-2022 file is based on the 2020 Census benchmark. DOF cannot close the 2010-2020 decade series and resolve any errors until the Census Bureau releases their Detailed Demographic and Housing Characteristics file, estimated in mid-2023.

City of Salinas Monterey County
2010 2022 Change 2010 2022 Change
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Table 3-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Units Permitted by Year (2000-2021)
Item 1-Unit
2-Unit
3- and 4-
Unit 5-Unit
+ Total
Year
2000 579 4 18 50 651 2001 268 - - 160 428 2002 442 14 9 92 557 2003 257 - 14 273 544
2004 231 - 6 25 262
2005 224 - - 21 245
2006 119 - - - 119
2007 72 2 - 170 244
2008 24 2 8 58 92 2009 19 - - 18 37 2010 35 - 16 88 139
2011 7 - 8 10 25
2012 11 2 - - 13
2013 3 2 3 51 59
2014 30 - - 36 66 2015 46 2 - 46 94
2016 2 2 - 48 52
2017 26 - - - 26
2018 57 - - 106 163
2019 80 4 - 12 96
2020 96 - - 109 205
2021 64 4 - 130 198
Total 2000-2021 2,692 38 82 1,503 4,315 Average per Year (2000-2021) 128 2 4 72 205 Total 2010-2021 457 16 27 636 1,136 Average per Year (2010-2021) 42 1 2 58 103 City of Salinas
Source: United States Department of Housing and Urban Development State of the Cities Database; EPS.

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Table 3-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Total Vacancy Rate (2010-2022)
Item City of Salinas Monterey County
Year
2010 5.3% 9.4%
2011 5.3% 9.6%
2012 5.3% 9.6%
2013 5.5% 9.9%
2014 5.5% 10.0%
2015 5.5% 10.0%
2016 5.6% 10.3%
2017 5.6% 10.3%
2018 5.6% 10.5%
2019 5.7% 10.6%
2020 2.8% 10.7%
2021 3.3% 8.8%
2022 3.3% 8.7%
Source: California Department of Finance E-5; EPS.

Total Residential Vacancy Rate
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Table 3-4
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Home Value Changes by County (2012-2022)
Item City July 2012 July 2022
Percentage Change
(July 2012-July 2022)
Rank [2]
1 Soledad $179,274 $606,385 238%
2 King City $159,997 $506,613 217%
3 Salinas $256,349 $733,725 186%
4 Castroville $259,358 $709,994 174%
5 Monterey $534,783 $1,217,425 128%
6 Marina $334,200 $873,884 161%
7 Seaside $307,352 $798,493 160%
8 Del Rey Oaks $362,954 $921,085 154%
9 Pacific Grove $619,794 $1,491,032 141%
10 Carmel-by-the-Sea $1,142,538 $2,692,137 136%
Average $415,660 $1,055,077 154%
Source: Zillow, EPS.
[2] Rank based on percentage change in home value from 2012 to 2022.

Zillow
Home Value Index [1]
[1] The Zillow Home Value Index represents the typical value of a home or condominium, defined as a home with a value between the 33rd percentile and the 67th percentile.

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Table 3-5
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
For-Sale Housing Market Summary (2012-2022)
Item
Year
2012 [1] 1,214 - $231,336 - 183 23
2013 1,120 (7.7%) $290,813 25.7% 119 15
2014 917 (18.1%) $350,669 20.6% 190 26
2015 958 4.5% $381,208 8.7% 203 37
2016 989 3.2% $415,417 9.0% 242 57
2017 870 (12.0%) $448,229 7.9% 208 55
2018 899 3.3% $464,792 3.7% 193 51
2019 885 (1.6%) $506,250 8.9% 186 53
2020 796 (10.1%) $554,458 9.5% 138 46
2021 956 20.1% $642,363 15.9% 113 35
2022 [2] 368 (61.5%) $683,833 6.5% 90 32
Average/Total Change [3] 960 (21.3%) $451,761 195.6% 93 39 Source: RedFin; EPS.
[1] Data for 2012 starts in Feburary.
[2] Year-to-date for 2022 is through June 2022.
[3] Average and percentage change for the number of homes sold excludes 2022 as it is not a full year of data.

City of Salinas
% Change
from Previous
Year
Average of the
Monthly Median
Sale Price
% Change from
Previous Year
Average
Days on
Market
Average
Monthly
Inventory
Homes
Sold
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Table 3-6
City of Salinas
Downtown HTM
A
Multifamily Housing Market Summary (2010-2022)
Item
Year
2010 172 2,743 - 0 $1,119 - 3.6% 475 9,830 - - $1,047 - 4.0% 2011 173 2,766 0.8% 23 $1,124 0.4% 4.2% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,056 0.9% 4.4% 2012 173 2,766 0.0% 0 $1,149 2.2% 3.8% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,078 2.1% 4.1% 2013 173 2,766 0.0% 0 $1,180 2.7% 3.5% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,107 2.7% 3.6% 2014 175 2,785 0.7% 19 $1,208 2.4% 3.2% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,151 4.0% 3.1% 2015 175 2,785 0.0% 0 $1,293 7.0% 2.2% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,275 10.8% 2.7% 2016 176 2,826 1.5% 41 $1,355 4.8% 2.8% 475 9,830 0.0% - $1,369 7.4% 2.8% 2017 175 2,796 (1.1%) (30) $1,419 4.7% 2.1% 476 9,878 0.5% 48 $1,471 7.5% 2.6% 2018 176 2,846 1.8% 50 $1,494 5.3% 2.2% 476 9,878 0.0% - $1,546 5.1% 2.2% 2019 176 2,846 0.0% 0 $1,517 1.5% 2.1% 476 9,878 0.0% - $1,586 2.6% 2.7% 2020 176 2,846 0.0% 0 $1,584 4.4% 1.7% 476 9,878 0.0% - $1,684 6.2% 2.4% 2021 176 2,846 0.0% 0 $1,823 15.1% 1.6% 476 9,878 0.0% - $1,892 12.4% 2.1% 2022 176 2,846 0.0% 0 $1,760 (3.5%) 1.9% 476 9,878 0.0% - $1,938 2.4% 2.6% Average/
Total Change 4 103 3.8% 8 $1,387 57.3% 2.7% 1 48 0.5% 4 $1,400 85.1% 3.0% Source: CoStar; EPS.

Downtown Study Area
Total
Buildings Total Units
% Change,
Total Units New Units
Monthly
Rent
% Change,
Rent Asked
Vacancy
Rate
City of Salinas Multifamily Housing
Total
Buildings Total Units
% Change,
Total Units New Units
Monthly
Rent
% Change,
Rent Asked
Vacancy
Rate
Prepared by EPS 8/26/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 25 DRAFT
Table 3-7
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Estimated Housing Unit Value Based on Income and Housing Costs in Monterey County (2022 in 2022$) Item Annual
Assumptions
Maximum Monthly Housing Cost as % of Income [3] 30.00% A Mortgage Term (In Years) [4] 30 B
Mortgage Interest Rate [5] 4.00% C
Down Payment as a % of Unit Value 12.00% D
Formula E F = A * E G = F / 12 H [6] J = I / (1 - D)
Income Level
Extremely Low $30,500 $9,150 $763 $489 $102,413 $116,378 Very Low Income $50,850 $15,255 $1,271 $814 $170,478 $193,726 Low Income $81,350 $24,405 $2,034 $1,304 $272,996 $310,223 Median Income $81,600 $24,480 $2,040 $1,307 $273,729 $311,056 Moderate Income $97,900 $29,370 $2,448 $1,569 $328,600 $373,410 Above Moderate Income $100K $100,000 $30,000 $2,500 $1,508 $315,720 $358,773 Above Moderate Income $150K $150,000 $45,000 $3,750 $2,261 $473,528 $538,100 Above Moderate Income $200K $200,000 $60,000 $5,000 $3,015 $631,441 $717,546 Source: Freddie Mac; EPS.
[1] EPS assumes a household size of 4, rounding the average persons per household for the City of Salinas. Refer to Table A-5 for income limits. [2] Refer to Table A-12 for detailed monthly costs calculation. [3]
Assumes affordable housing prices shall be based on no more than 30% of income being applied to housing expenses. [4] Based on a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage. [5]
[6] Estimated mortgage amounts works backwards using the monthly housing costs, see Table A-12 for details.

Interest rates are based on the average for 30-year fixed-rates from 2010 to 2020 per Freddie Mac.

Assumptions
Estimated Housing Costs
Monthly Costs
(Homeowner
Costs / Rent +
Utilites) [2]
Estimated Unit
Value
Loan
Amount
Monthly
Mortgage
Cost
I (see above assumptions B & C)
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Table 4-1
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Inclusionary Residential Development Static Pro Forma Summar y
Item Source Formula Option 1 Option 2 Option 1 Option 2 Option 1 Option 2 Option 1 Option 2 Revenue Assumptions per Unit
Market-Rate Sales Price/Capitalized Value Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 A Affordable Sales Price/Capitalized Value Table A-3 B $126,790 $73,452 $64,916 $34,367 $354,136 $340,675 $300,136 $258,936 Cost Assumptions Per Unit
Infrastructure Burden Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 $22,001 $22,001 $27,558 $27,558 $22,672 $22,672 $24,699 $24,699 Direct Building Construction Costs Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 $90,170 $90,170 $280,698 $280,698 $326,010 $326,010 $284,520 $284,520 Indirect Costs Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 $9,017 $9,017 $28,070 $28,070 $65,202 $65,202 $56,904 $56,904 Financing & Builder Profit Costs Table 4-2 and Table 4-3 $19,768 $19,768 $54,861 $54,861 $58,916 $58,916 $52,118 $52,118 Total Costs per Unit C $140,956 $140,956 $391,187 $391,187 $472,801 $472,801 $418,240 $418,240 Residual Land Value (RLV) per Unit
Market Rate D = A - C
Market Rate RLV as % of Total Market Rate Value [1] E = D / A Affordability Gap F = B - C ($14,167) ($67,504) ($326,271) ($356,820) ($118,664) ($132,126) ($118,104) ($159,304) Total Gap with Inclusionary Requirements G = D + F $19,513 ($33,824) ($335,258) ($365,807) ($203,865) ($217,327) ($84,904) ($126,104) RLV as % of Total Value with Inclusionary Requirements [1] H = G / A 11.2% (19.4%) (87.7%) (95.7%) (52.6%) (56.1%) (18.8%) (27.9%) Source: City of Salinas; EPS.
[1] A prototype that would be considered feasible will have a RLV equal to about 20% to 30% of total asset value (finished lot plus structure).

19.3% (2.4%) (22.0%) 7.4%
$33,200
$387,600 $451,440$174,636 $382,200
$33,680 ($8,987) ($85,201)
For-Sale Units + Inclusionary Options
Micro Units RD-180 RD-60 RD-60 (Condos) RD-30 (Townhomes/Rowhouses) Multifamily Renter-Occupied Units + Inclusionary Options Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 27 DRAFT

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Table 4-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Renter-Occupied Units
Item
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS [1]
Site Acres 1.00 - - - -
No. of Units 180 - 60 -
Weighted Avreage Unit Sq. Ft. 270 875
No. of Parking Spaces 0 - 0 -
Gross Building Sq. Ft. 60,750 - 65,625 -
Net Leasable/Saleable Sq. Ft. 48,600 - 52,500 -
REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS [2]
Residential Apartmen
t
Gross Potential Income per Year $2,245,320 7.1% $1,638,000 7.1% Less Vacancy 5.0% - - - -
Less Operating & Maintenance Expenses 25.0% - - - - Net Annual Income $1,571,724 5.0% $1,146,600 5.0%
Capitalized Value
Cap Rate 5.0% - - - -
Total Building Value $31,434,480 100.0% $22,932,000 100.0% Attached For-Sale Supported Price
Sales Price - -
Less Commissions - -
Net Total For-Sale Revenue per Unit - -
TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES PRICE/CAPTIALIZED VALUE $31,434,480 100.0% $22,932,000 100.0% PER UNIT $174,636 $382,200
Renter-Occupied Units
Renter-Occupied Units
General
Assumptions
% of
Total
% of
TotalMicro Units RD-60
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Page 2 of 2 ends

Table 4-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Renter-Occupied Units
Item
Renter-Occupied Units
Renter-Occupied Units
General
Assumptions
% of
Total
% of
TotalMicro Units RD-60
COST ASSUMPTIONS [2]
Direct Building Construction Costs
Site Work $435,600 - 1.7% - 1.9%
Building Construction Costs $15,795,000 62.3% $16,406,250 69.9% Total Direct Building Construction Costs $16,230,600 64.0% $16,841,850 71.8% Other Soft Costs
As a % of Direct Costs 10.0% - - - -
Total Other Soft Costs $1,623,060 6.4% $1,684,185 7.2%
Total Building & Development Impact Fees $3,960,173 15.6% $1,653,502 7.0% Financing
Interest (7.0%, 50% LTC, 50% Outstanding) $534,439 2.1% $494,399 2.1% Fees (2.0% of loan amount) $305,394 1.2% $282,514 1.2%
Total Financing Costs $839,833 3.3% $776,912 3.3%
Builder Fee
As a % of All Costs 12.0% - - - -
Total Builder Fee $2,718,440 10.7% $2,514,774 10.7%
TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS $25,372,106 100.0% $23,471,223 100.0% PER UNIT $140,95
6 $391,187
RESIDUAL LAND VALUE $6,062,374 - ($539,223) -
Per Acre $6,062,374 - ($539,223) -
Per Unit $33,680 ($8,987)
As a % of Value 19.3% - (2.4%) -
Source: EPS.
[1] See Table A-1.
[2] See Table A-2.

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Table 4-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Owner-Occupied Units
Item
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS [1]
Site Acres 1.0 - - - -
No. of Units 60 - 30 -
No. of Parking Spaces 0 - 0 -
Gross Building Sq. Ft. 76,500 - 40,500 -
Net Leasable/Saleable Sq. Ft. 61,200 - 32,400 -
REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS [2]
Attached Townhome For-Sale Supported Price
Total Sales Price $24,480,000 - $14,256,000 -
Less Marketing/Commissions 5.0%
Net Total For-Sale Revenue $23,256,000 100.0% $13,543,200 100.0%

TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES PRICE/CAPTIALIZED VALU
E $23,256,000 100.0% $13,543,200 100.0%
PER UNIT $387,600 $451,440
% of
Total
Attached Owner-Occupied Units
Owner-Occupied Units
General
Assumptions Condo RD-60
% of
Total
Townhome/
Rowhouse RD-30
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Table 4-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Feasibility Analysis Pro Forma: Owner-Occupied Units
Item
% of
Total
Attached Owner-Occupied Units
Owner-Occupied Units
General
Assumptions Condo RD-60
% of
Total
Townhome/
Rowhouse RD-30
COST ASSUMPTIONS [2]
Direct Building Construction Costs
Site Work $435,600 - 1.5% - 3.5%
Building Construction Costs $19,125,000 67.4% $8,100,000 64.6% Total Direct Building Construction Costs $19,560,600 69.0% $8,535,600 68.0% Other Soft Costs
As a % of Direct Costs 20.0% - - - -
Total Other Soft Costs $3,912,120 13.8% $1,707,120 13.6% Total Building & Development Impact Fees $1,360,346 4.8% $740,956 5.9% Financing
Interest (7.0%, 50% LTC, 50% Outstanding) $608,410 2.1% $269,100 2.1% Fees (2.0% of loan amount) $347,663 1.2% $153,771 1.2%
Total Financing Costs $956,073 3.4% $422,872 3.4%
Builder Fee
As a % of All Costs 10.0% - - - -
Total Builder Fee $2,578,914 9.1% $1,140,655 9.1%
TOTAL ESTIMATED COSTS $28,368,053 100.0% $12,547,202 100.0% PER UNIT $472,801 $418,24
0 RESIDUAL LAND VALUE ($5,112,053) - $995,998 -
Per Acre ($5,112,053) - $995,998 -
Per Unit ($85,201) $33,200
As a % of Value (22.0%) - 7.4% -
Source: EPS.
[1] See Table A-1.
[2] See Table A-2.

Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 31 APPENDIX A

Table A-1 Development Standards and Assumptions:

Market Rate .............................................................. 32 Table A-2 Development Cost an d Revenue Assumptions ................ 33 Table A-3 Inclusionary Residential Development
Prototype Detail ........................................................ 34 Table A-4 Estimated Rent and Housing Value Based on
Income and Housing Costs .......................................... 35 Table A-5 Monterey Count y Income Limits .................................. 36 Table A-6 Micro Unit Comparables .............................................. 37 Table A-7 Detailed Multifamily Market Analysis ............................. 38 Table A-8 Attached Ownership Comparable Properties .................. 39 Table A-9 New Home Asking Price Comparison ............................. 40 Table A-10 Estimated Monthly Housing Costs by Category in Monterey County ....................................................... 41

DRAFT
Table A-1
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Development Standards and Assumptions: Market Rate
Rate or Rate or Rate or Rate or
Item Percentage Amount Percentage Amount Percentage Amount Percentage Amount Site Area (Acres
) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Density (DU/Acre) [1] 180.0 60.0 60.0 30.0
Height Limit (in Feet) [1] 75 75 75 35
Height Limit (in Stories) 66 6 3
Market-Rate Units 100% 180 100% 60 100% 60 100% 30
Bedroom Mix % of Total % of Total % of Total % of Total Studio 80% 144 25% 15 10% 6 0% 0
1 Bedroom 20% 36 25% 15 30% 18 30% 9
2 Bedroom 0% 0 50% 30 60% 36 70% 21
Total 100% 180 100% 60 100% 60 100% 30
Bedroom Mix Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft. Sq. Ft.

Studio 250 36,000 550 8,250 600 3,600 600 0
1 Bedroom 350 12,600 750 11,250 800 14,400 800 7,200
2 Bedroom 0 0 1,100 33,000 1,200 43,200 1,200 25,200
Weighted Average/Net Total 270 48,600 875 52,500 1,020 61,200 1,080 32,400 Gross Building Sq. Ft. [2] - 60,750 - 65,625 - 76,500 - 40,500 Source: City of Salinas Municipal Code; EMC; EPS.
[1] Assumes Mixed Use in Central City Overlay District. [2] Applies a 80 percent efficiency factor to the net leasable square footage.

Owner-Occupied Attached
Townhome/Rowhouse RD-30
Development Assumptions:

Market Rate
Renter-Occupied Micro Units RD-180 Renter-Occupied RD-60 Owner-Occupied RD-60 Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 32 DRAFT
Table A-2
City of Salinas
Downtown HTM
A
Development Cost and Revenue Assumptions
Item Assumptions Micro RD-60 RD-60 Townhome RD-30
Market-Rate Revenue Assumptions
Residential Revenue [1] per leasable (monthly)/saleable sq. ft. - $3.85 $2.60 $400.00 $440.00 Cap Rates [2]
Residential 5.00% 5.00% - -
Hard Construction Cost Assumptions
Basic Site Work/Grading per land site sq. ft. $10.00 - - - - Building Construction Cost [3] per gross building sq. ft. $260.00 $250.00 $250.00 $200.00 [1]
[2] Cap rates based on data for Northern California per various soures such as CBRE and CoStar. [3] Hard construction costs based on discussions with developers and ar chitects and Saylor.com for 2020, adjusted using the index f or the City of Salinas/Monterey of 90% and escalated to 2022 dollars per the 2020 to 2022 ENR Construction Cost Index of 10.2%.

Multifamily rental rates based on data shown in Table A-6 and Table A-7 per CoStar and project websites. For-sale figures are b ased on a survey of comparable for-sale properties from RedFin as of August 2022, as shown in Table A-8, as well as new construction in Table A-9.

Source: RedFin; CoStar; CBRE Research United States Cap Rate Survey H2 2021, March 2022; Saylor; ENR; RS Means; CA Board of Eq ualization; Victoria Transport Policy Institute; WGI Parking Solutions; EPS.

Owner-Occupied
Cost and Revenue
Assumptions
General
Assumptions
Renter-Occupied
Multifamily Residential
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Table A-3
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Inclusionary Residential Development Prototype DetailItem Assumptions Unit Count 60
Unit Mix [1] % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value % Units Value Studio 1- 80% 17 - 80% 17 - 25% 2- 25% 2- - 10% 1- 10% 1- 0% - - 0% - - One Bedroom 2- 20% 5- 20% 4- 25% 2- 25% 2- - 30% 4- 30% 3- 30% 2- 30% 2- Two Bedroom/2 Bath 3- 0% - - 0% - - 50% 3- 50% 3- - 60% 7- 60% 5- 70% 4- 70% 3- - - 12% 22 - 12% 22 - 12% 7 - 12% 7 - - 20% 12 - 15% 9 - 20% 6 - 15% 5 - .
% % % %
Very Low Unit Mix Percentage
Studio $35,600 $12,474 - - - 80% 12 $149,688 - - - 25% 1 $12,474 $112,889 10% - - - - - 0% - $0 - - - One Bedroom $40,700 $12,474 - - - 20% 3 $37,422 - - - 25% 1 $12,474 $112,889 30% 1 $112,889 - - - 30% - $0 - - - Two Bedroom/2 Bath $45,800 $12,474 - - - 0% - $0 - - - 50% 2 $24,948 $135,378 60% 1 $135,378 - - - 70% 1 $135,378 - - - - - - - - 8% 15 $187,110 - - - 8% 4 $49,896 - 4% 2 $248,267 0% - - 4% 1 $135,378 0% - - Low Unit Mix Percentage
Studio $57,025 $12,474 - - - 80% 6 $74,844 - - - 25% 1 $12,474 $181,129 10% 1 $181,129 - - - 0% - $0 - - - One Bedroom $65,100 $12,474 - - - 20% 1 $12,474 - - - 25% 1 $12,474 $181,129 30% 2 $362,258 - - - 30% 1 $181,129 - - - Two Bedroom/2 Bath $73,250 $12,474 - - - 0% - $0 - - - 50% 1 $12,474 $216,517 60% 3 $649,550 - - - 70% 2 $433,034 - - - - - - - - 4% 7 $87,318 - - - 4% 3 $37,422 - 8% 6 $1,192,937 0% - - 8% 3 $614,162 0% - - Median Unit Mix Percentage
Studio $57,100 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $181,349 - - - 10% 1 $181,349 - - - 0% - - One Bedroom $65,300 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $181,349 - - - 30% 1 $181,349 - - - 30% 1 $181,349 Two Bedroom/2 Bath $73,450 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $217,178 - - - 60% 2 $434,356 - - - 70% 1 $273,645 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6% 4 $797,055 - - - 6% 2 $454,994 Moderate Unit Mix Percentage
Studio $68,550 $12,474 80% 17 $212,058 - - - 25% 2 $24,948 - - - $217,619 10% - - 10% 1 $217,619 0% - $0 0% - - One Bedroom $78,300 $12,474 20% 5 $62,370 - - - 25% 2 $24,948 - - - $217,619 30% 1 $217,619 30% 1 $217,619 30% - $0 30% 1 $217,619 Two Bedroom/2 Bath $88,100 $12,474 0% - $0 - - - 50% 3 $37,422 - - - $260,393 60% 1 $260,393 60% 2 $520,787 70% 1 $260,393 70% 1 $260,393 - - 12% 22 $274,428 - - - 12% 7 $87,318 - - - - 4% 2 $478,013 6% 4 $956,025 4% 1 $260,393 6% 2 $478,013 Work Force Unit Mix Percentage
Studio $95,178 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $311,215 10% - $0 10% - - 0% - $0 0% - - One Bedroom $105,754 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $311,215 30% 1 $311,215 30% - - 30% - $0 30% - - Two Bedroom/2 Bath $117,504 $12,474 - - - - - - - - - - - - $357,848 60% 1 $357,848 60% 1 $357,848 70% 1 $357,848 70% 1 $357,848 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4% 2 $669,063 3% 1 $357,848 4% 1 $357,848 3% 1 $357,848 Total Estimated Annual Revenue/Value - - 22 $274,428 - 22 $274,428 - 7 $87,318 - 7 $87,318 - - 12 $2,588,279 - 9 $2,110,928 - 6 $1,367,782 - 5 $1,290,855 Weighted Avg. Residential Per Unit $8,093 $4,897 $4,328 $2,291 $354,136 $340,675 $300,136 $258,936 Less Vacancy and Maintenance 25% $6,069 $3,673 $3,246 $1,718 NA NA NA NA Capitalization Rate 5.0% $121,390 $73,452 $64,916 $34,367 NA NA NA NA Housing Impact Fee $5,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Source: City of Salinas; State of California Department of Finance; State of California Housing and Community Development (HCD); EPS. [1] Household sizes per HCD determination of projects with federal assistance. [2] Household income per HCS 2021 Income limits.
[3] See Table A-4 for estimated unit values.

Inclusionary Residential
Prototypes
180
Option 1
RD-60
Option 2
RD-60 (Condos)
60 Option 1 Option 2
Micro Units RD-180
Household
Size
Annual
Rent
Household
Income [2]
Assumptions
Multifamily Renter-Occupied Units
Option 2Option 1
For-Sale
Unit Value
For-Sale Units Inclusionary Options
RD-30 (Townhomes/Rowhouses)
Option 1 Option 2
30 Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 34 DRAFT
Table A-4
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Estimated Rent and Housing Value Based on Income and Housing Costs Item Annual
Assumptions
Maximum Monthly Housing Cost as % of Income [3] 30.00%
A
Mortgage Term (In Years) [4] 30 B
Mortgage Interest Rate [5] 4.00% C
Down Payment as a % of Unit Value 5.00% D
Formula E F = A * E G = F / 12 H J = I / (1 - D)
Income Level
Extremely Low $21,350 $6,405 $534 $308 $64,409 $67,799
Very Low Income $35,600 $10,680 $890 $512 $107,244 $112,889 Low Income $57,025 $17,108 $1,426 $822 $172,072 $181,129 Median Income $57,100 $17,130 $1,428 $823 $172,282 $181,349 Moderate Income $68,550 $20,565 $1,714 $987 $206,738 $217,619 Work Force $95,178 $28,553 $2,379 $1,412 $295,655 $311,215 Income Level
Extremely Low $24,400 $7,320 $610 $368 $76,977 $81,028
Very Low Income $40,700 $12,210 $1,018 $614 $128,609 $135,378 Low Income $65,100 $19,530 $1,628 $982 $205,691 $216,517 Median Income $65,300 $19,590 $1,633 $985 $206,319 $217,178 Moderate Income $78,300 $23,490 $1,958 $1,181 $247,374 $260,393 Work Force $105,754 $31,726 $2,644 $1,623 $339,956 $357,848 Income Level
Extremely Low $27,450 $8,235 $686 $428 $89,649 $94,368
Very Low Income $45,800 $13,740 $1,145 $715 $149,660 $157,537 Low Income $73,250 $21,975 $1,831 $1,143 $239,309 $251,905 Median Income $73,450 $22,035 $1,836 $1,146 $239,938 $252,566 Moderate Income $88,100 $26,430 $2,203 $1,375 $288,009 $303,168 Income Level
Extremely Low $30,500 $9,150 $763 $489 $102,427 $107,817 Very Low Income $50,850 $15,255 $1,271 $814 $170,501 $179,475 Low Income $81,350 $24,405 $2,034 $1,304 $273,033 $287,403 Median Income $81,600 $24,480 $2,040 $1,307 $273,766 $288,175 Moderate Income $97,900 $29,370 $2,448 $1,569 $328,645 $345,942 value
Source: Freddie Mac; EPS.
[1] Refer to Table A-5 for income limits.
[2] Refer to Table A-10 for detailed monthly costs calculation. [3]
EPS assumes affordable housing prices shall be based on no more than 30% of income being applied to housing expenses. [4] Based on a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage. [5] The 4.0% interest rate estimate is based on the average for 30-year fixed-rates from 2010 to 2020 per Freddie Mac. 2-Person Household
3-Person Household
4-Person Household
Annual
Income [1]
Monthly
Mortgage
Cost
Estimated Unit
Value
Estimated Housing Costs
Loan
Amount
Monthly Costs
(Homeowner
Costs / Rent +
Utilites) [2]
I (see above
assumptions B & C)
1-Person Household
Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 35 DRAFT
Table A-5
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Monterey County Income Limits (2022 in 2022$)
Income Level % of AMI 1 2 3 [1] 4
Extremely Low ≤ 30% AMI 30% $21,350 $24,400 $27,450 $30,500 Very Low Income >30% to ≤50% AMI 50% $35,600 $40,700 $45,800 $50,850 Low Income >50% to ≤80% AMI 80% $57,025 $65,100 $73,250 $81,350 Median Income >80% to ≤100% AMI 100% $57,100 $65,300 $73,450 $81,600 Moderate Income >100% AMI to ≤120% AMI 120% $68,550 $78,300 $88,100 $97,900 Work Force >120% AMI to ≤160% AMI 160% $95,178 $105,754 $117,504 $130,560 limits
[1] The average persons per household for the City of Salinas is 3.6 per the 2022 DOF.

Source: United States Department of Housing and Urban Development FY 2022 Income Limits; State of California Department of Housing and Community Development, "State Income Limits for 2022"; EPS.

Monterey County Income Limits
Based on HH Size:

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Table A-6
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Micro Unit Comparables
Averag
e Property Number of Average
Number Unit Size Size Parking Spaces Year Averag e Rent per Item Address of Units (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Acres DU/Acre Spaces per Unit Built Rent Sq. Ft.

Micro Unit Apartments
19J Sacramento 175 484 80,000 12,807 0.3 595.2 50 0.3 2019 $2,082 $4.30 Sonrisa [1] Sacramento 58 267 19,358 11,326 0.3 223.1 0 0.0 2023 $887 $3.32 259 Meridian Ave [1] San Jose 226 400 122,300 56,192 1.3 175.2 162 0.7 2024 $1,150 $2.88 388 Fulton San Francisco 69 488 50,750 12,520 0.3 240.1 0 0.0 2016 For-Sale NA Total/Average/Weighted Averag
e 528 425 68,102 23,211 0.5 328.1 53 0.4 2021 $1,280 $3.01 Source: CoStar; Sacramento Business Journal; project websites; The Sacramento Bee; City of San Jose; Mercury News; EPS. [1] These projects are 100% affordable.

Land Area
Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 37 DRAFT
Table A-7
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Detailed Multifamily Comparables Market Analysi
s
Average Property Number of Average
Number Unit Size Size Parking Spaces Yea r Average Rent per Property [1] Address of Units (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) (Sq. Ft.) Acres DU/Acre Spaces per Unit Built Rent Sq. Ft.

Apartment Complex
- 16 Natividad Rd 48 528 43,220 65,301 1.5 32.0 - - 1966 $1,226 $2.32 Tahitian Village Apartments 976 W Alisal St 35 691 31,584 46,801 1.1 32.6 35 1.0 1964 $1,473 $2.13 The Reef Apartments 333 W Laurel Dr 54 680 33,004 72,000 1.7 32.7 69 1.3 1964 $1,533 $2.25 Northridge Manor Apartments 105 N Prado St 32 700 22,400 42,253 1.0 33.0 42 1.3 1978 $1,515 $2.16 The Courtyard Apartments 22 Capitol St 40 710 28,400 52,799 1.2 33.0 40 1.0 1984 $1,846 $2.60 Maple Manor Apartments 300-320 Maple St 24 618 14,793 31,459 0.7 33.2 27 1.1 1966 $1,075 $1.74 East Park Apartments 904-908 Acosta Plz 36 720 25,920 47,149 1.1 33.3 58 1.6 1985 $1,934 $2.69 The Gables 2186-2198 Brutus Cir 60 816 58,952 78,538 1.8 33.3 120 2.0 1989 $1,717 $2.10 California Pride 454 California St 15 945 20,952 19,602 0.5 33.3 34 2.3 - $1,357 $1.44 93 North 93 Castro St 104 695 71,275 135,297 3.1 33.5 118 1.1 1986 $2,264 $3.26 The Park Terrace Apartments 619 E Romie Ln 52 613 30,170 67,514 1.5 33.6 - - 1963 $1,691 $2.76 Pointe at Northridge 424-436 Noice Dr 187 789 149,415 231,739 5.3 35.2 257 1.4 1979 $2,146 $2.72 Glenhaven Apartments 415 Williams Rd 22 932 15,936 27,007 0.6 35.5 30 1.4 1977 $1,328 $1.42 - 401 Monterey St 16 452 8,090 18,652 0.4 37.4 21 1.3 2019 $660 $1.46 - 270 Harvest St 26 800 24,794 30,100 0.7 37.6 30 1.2 1964 $1,440 $1.80 Pointe at Westlake 60 Stephanie Dr 139 593 100,650 157,761 3.6 38.4 18 0.1 1975 $1,765 $2.98 Sheridan Apartments 1450 N 1st St 116 749 93,760 130,680 3.0 38.7 166 1.4 2019 $2,248 $3.00 - 1009 Sieber Ave 18 792 14,604 19,936 0.5 39.3 26 1.4 1980 $1,176 $1.48 Park View Apartments 715 Elton Pl 28 575 22,282 27,417 0.6 44.5 30 1.1 1971 $1,135 $1.97 Nissen Village Apartments 75 Nissen Rd 70 530 38,336 67,082 1.5 45.5 70 1.0 1976 $1,450 $2.74 Kipling Manor Apartments 82-90 Kip Dr 92 791 132,016 71,918 1.7 55.7 117 1.3 1993 $1,615 $2.04 Park View Apartments 707 Elton Pl 54 660 41,895 39,653 0.9 59.3 30 0.6 1986 $1,982 $3.00 - 618 N Sanborn Rd 12 675 14,188 5,798 0.1 90.2 16 1.3 1979 $1,335 $1.98 Terrace View Apartments 787-791 Garner Ave 45 768 34,541 12,380 0.3 158.3 56 1.2 1989 $1,030 $1.34 Total/Average/Weighted Average 1,325 701 44,632 62,452 1.4 43.0 64 1.1 1981 $1,747 $2.49 Source: CoStar; EPS.
[1] Includes properties with 10 or more units, and excludes properties without a listed asking rent price.

Condominium
689 Las Casitas Dr 2002 1,513 - August-10-2022 $509,000 $336.42 705 Garner Ave #103 2004 988 - June-14-2022 $362,000 $366.40 711 Garner Ave #103 2004 988 - February-15-2022 $355,000 $359.31 18235 Caldwell St 2017 1,847 - January-27-2022 $725,000 $392.53 14814 Kit Carson Dr 2018 1,330 - Jan-00 $284,000 $213.53 17619 Reynolds St 2019 1,847 - April-15-2022 $796,000 $430.97 14881 Kit Carson Dr 2019 2,199 - May-4-2022 $800,000 $363.80 14746 Kit Carson Dr 2019 1,726 - March-24-2022 $750,000 $434.53 Total/Weighted Average 12,438 $620,616 $368.00
Townhome
1860 Cherokee Dr #2 1982 1,621 1,961 October-25-2021 $525,000 $323.87 1832 Cherokee Dr #4 1982 1,243 2,052 August-20-2021 $450,000 $362.03 1883 Cherokee Dr #3 1983 1,083 550 May-12-2022 $407,500 $376.27 142 Nissen Rd #1 1985 1,358 2,555 September-17-2021 $560,000 $412.37 120 Nissen Rd #4 1985 1,358 2,495 November-16-2021 $550,000 $405.01 102 Nissen Rd 1985 1,293 3,433 February-18-2022 $595,000 $460.17 2360 N Main St #1 1986 1,152 742 September-30-2021 $342,000 $296.88 949 Nantucket Blvd #18 1996 1,597 3,060 February-3-2022 $620,000 $388.23 17819 Banks St 2018 1,847 1,181 March-31-2022 $700,000 $378.99 16230 E Garrison 2019 2,199 1,462 September-10-2021 $750,000 $341.06 Total/Weighted Average 14,751 1,949 $573,160 $373.00
Source: The Gregory Group; EPS.

Attached Projects
Year Built
Unit
Sq. Ft. Date Sold Sale Price
Price per
Sq. Ft.

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Table A-9
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
New Home Asking Price Comparison
Starting
Asking Asking
Project Sales Sales Price
Project-Location Type Price Sq. Ft. per Sq. Ft. Bed Bath The Dunes - Marina, CA
Beach House
Plan 1 [1] SFR Detached $1,114,500 2,315 $481.43 3 2.5
Plan 2 [1] SFR Detached $1,249,000 2,401 $520.20 4 3.0
Plan 3 SFR Detached $1,233,000 2,432 $506.99 4 3.0
Average Beach House $1,198,833 2,383 $503.15 4 3.0
Sea House
Plan 1 SFR Attached $847,033 1,581 $535.76 2 2.5
Plan 2 [1] SFR Attached $865,440 1,735 $498.81 3 2.5
Plan 3 SFR Attached $912,651 1,969 $463.51 3 2.5
Plan 4 [1] SFR Attached $910,276 1,919 $474.35 3 2.5
Average Sea House $883,850 1,801 $490.76 3 2.5
Surf House
Plan 1 SFR Detached $995,378 2,012 $494.72 3 2.5
Plan 2 [1] SFR Detached $1,028,945 2,222 $463.07 3 2.5
Plan 3 [1] SFR Detached $1,061,452 2,280 $465.55 4 3.0
Average Surf House $1,028,592 2,171 $473.71 3 2.5
Average The Dunes $1,021,768 2,087 $489.68 3 2.5
Vintage Estates - Soledad, CA
Residence 1550 SFR Detached $581,990 1,550 $375.48 3 2.0 Residence 1803 SFR Detached $604,990 1,803 $335.55 3 2.5 Residence 1994 SFR Detached $619,990 1,994 $310.93 3 2.5 Residence 2131 SFR Detached $629,990 2,131 $295.63 3 2.5 Residence 2438 SFR Detached $662,990 2,438 $271.94 4 3.0 Average Vintage Estates $619,990 1,983 $312.62 3 2.5
The Enclave - Seaside, CA
Residence 1 SFR Detached $1,748,000 2,941 $594.36 4 4.5 Residence 2 SFR Detached $2,025,000 3,456 $585.94 4 4.5 Residence 3 SFR Detached Sold Out 3,456 NA 4 3.5
Residence 4 SFR Detached $2,202,500 3,724 $591.43 4 4.5 Residence 5 SFR Detached Sold Out 3,533 NA 4 3.5
Residence 6 SFR Detached $1,947,000 3,033 $641.94 3 3.5 Average The Enclave $1,980,625 3,357 $589.97 4 4.0
Roberts Ranch - Hollister, CA
Plan 1478 SFR Detached NA 1,478 NA 3 2.0
Plan 1896 [1] SFR Detached $815,000 1,896 $429.85 3 2.0 Plan 1967 SFR Detached $825,000 1,967 $419.42 4 2.0
Plan 2209 [1] SFR Detached NA 2,209 NA 3 2.0
Plan 2273 SFR Detached NA 2,273 NA 4 2.5
Plan 2321 SFR Detached NA 2,321 NA 4 2.5
Plan 2525 SFR Detached NA 2,525 NA 5 3.0
Plan 2775 SFR Detached NA 2,775 NA 5 3.0
Plan 3465 SFR Detached NA 3,465 NA 5 3.5
Average Roberts Ranch $820,000 2,323 $352.96 4 2.5
Montclair - Hollister, CA
Residence 1 SFR Detached $780,990 1,628 $479.72 3 2.0
Residence 2 SFR Detached $803,990 1,743 $461.27 3 2.5
Residence 3 SFR Detached $841,990 2,054 $409.93 4 2.5
Residence 4 SFR Detached $857,990 2,176 $394.30 4 2.5
Residence 5 SFR Detached $871,990 2,320 $375.86 4 3.0
Residence 6 SFR Detached $874,990 2,493 $350.98 4 3.0
Residence 7 SFR Detached $894,990 2,833 $315.92 5 3.0
Residence 8 SFR Detached $914,990 3,153 $290.20 5 3.5
Average Montclair $855,240 2,300 $371.84 4 3.0
new_sales
Source: Shea Homes; Legacy Homes; Mertiage Homes; KB Homes; EPS. [1] Model plan includes option for 1 more bedrooms.

Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 40 DRAFT
Table A-10
City of Salinas
Downtown HTMA
Estimated Monthly Housing Costs by Category in Monterey County (2022 in 2022$) Item Assumptions Total
Annual Property Taxes and Homeowners Insurance 2.00%
Mortgage Insurance as a % of Loan Amt. [1] 1.50%
Income Level Annual Income [2]
Extremely Low $21,350 $489 $128 $146 $763
Very Low Income $50,850 $814 $213 $244 $1,271
Low Income $81,350 $1,304 $341 $389 $2,034
Median Income $81,600 $1,307 $342 $391 $2,040
Moderate Income $97,900 $1,569 $411 $468 $2,448
Above Moderate Income $100K $100,000 $1,508 $395 $598 $2,500 Above Moderate Income $150K $150,000 $2,261 $592 $897 $3,750 Above Moderate Income $200K $200,000 $3,015 $789 $1,196 $5,000 Source: Realtor.com; Zillow; bankrate.com; wellsfargo.com; chase.com; nerwallet.com; EPS. [1]
[2] Refer to Table A-5 for income limits.

Estimated Monthly Cost
Mortgage
Payment
Mortgage
Insurance
Taxes and
Insurance
Mortgage insurance rate is based on an average of the estimated range from 0.55% to 2.25%. Rates are based on credit and down payment amounts.

Prepared by EPS 8/30/2022 Z:\Shared\Projects\SAC\222000\222102 Salinas Updated Housing Target Market Analysis\Model\222102_Salinas_DowntownHTMA_08-25-22 41

Salinas City CouncilSeptember 13, 2022

Salinas City Council
September 13, 2022