May 7, 2025
RESOLUTION NO. 2025-282
RESOLUTION OF THE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL OF
THE CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO, CALIFORNIA,
APPROVING AND ADOPTING THE CITY OF SAN
BERNARDINO LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN
2024.
WHEREAS, The City of San Bernardino has contracted services with PlaceWorks/Atlas Planning Solutions to review and update the City’s existing Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP), and,
WHEREAS, the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan for the City of San Bernardino was developed in accordance with the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) and followed FEMA’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan guidance. This plan incorporates a process where hazards are identified and profiled, the people and facilities at risk are analyzed, and mitigation actions are developed to reduce or eliminate hazard risk. The implementation of these mitigation actions, which include both short and long-term strategies, involve planning, policy changes, programs, projects, and other activities, and,
WHEREAS, the preparation of the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan will assist the City with Assembly Bill 2140 (Government Code Sections 8685.9 and 65302.6) compliance, and, WHEREAS, The plan has been updated, reviewed, and deemed adoptable by the California Office of Emergency Services and Federal Emergency Management Agency.
BE IT RESOLVED BY THE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO AS FOLLOWS:
SECTION 1.The above recitals are true and correct and are incorporated herein by this reference.
SECTION 2. The Mayor and City Council of the City of San Bernardino California, hereby adopt the 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.
SECTION 3.That the City Council finds this Resolution is not subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) in that the activity is covered by the general rule that CEQA applies only to projects which have the potential for causing a significant effect on the environment. Where it can be seen with certainty, as in this case, that there is no possibility that the activity in question may have a significant effect on the environment, the activity is not subject to CEQA.
SECTION 4.Severability. If any provision of this Resolution or the application thereof to any person or circumstance is held invalid, such invalidity shall not affect other provisions or applications, and to this end the provisions of this Resolution are declared to be severable.
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Resolution No. 2025-282
Resolution No. 2025-282
May 7, 2025
SECTION 5. Effective Date. This Resolution shall become effective immediately.
APPROVED and ADOPTED by the City Council and signed by the Mayor and attested by the City Clerk this 7th day of May, 2025.
Helen Tran, Mayor
City of San Bernardino
Attest:
Telicia Lopez, Acting City Clerk
Approved as to form:
Sonia Carvalho, City Attorney
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Resolution No. 2025-282
Resolution No. 2025-282
May 7, 2025
CERTIFICATION
STATE OF CALIFORNIA)
COUNTY OF SAN BERNARDINO) ss
CITY OF SAN BERNARDINO)
I, Telicia Lopez, Acting City Clerk, hereby certify that the attached is a true copy of Resolution No. 2025-282, adopted at a regular meeting held on the 7 th day of May 2025 by the following vote:
Council Members: AYES NAYS ABSTAIN ABSENT
SANCHEZ _____ _____ _______ _______
IBARRA _____ _____ _______ _______
FIGUEROA _____ _____ _______ _______
SHORETT _____ _____ _______ _______
KNAUS _____ _____ _______ _______
FLORES _____ _____ _______ _______
ORTIZ _____ _____ _______ _______
WITNESS my hand and official seal of the City of San Bernardino this 8th Day of May, 2025.
Telicia Lopez, Acting City Clerk
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2024
Atlas Planning Solutions
Cal OES/FEMA Review Draft
8/1/2024
City of San Bernardino
Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1 – Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 Plan Purpose and Authority ................................................................................................. 1 Plan Organization and Use .................................................................................................. 3 Previous San Bernardino LHMP ............................................................................................ 3 Plan Goals ............................................................................................................................. 4 Planning Process .................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 2 – Community Profile ................................................................................. 11 Demographics .....................................................................................................................12 Economy and Commute Patterns .....................................................................................15 Development Trends ...........................................................................................................16 Major Community Elements ...............................................................................................18 Infrastructure Assessment ...................................................................................................20 Chapter 3 – Risk Assessment and Threat and Vulnerability Assessment ................ 25 Hazard Identification ..........................................................................................................25 Hazard Scoring and Prioritization .......................................................................................29 Threat Assessment Process ................................................................................................. 32 Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern .......................................................................32 Vulnerable Populations ......................................................................................................35 Other Assets .........................................................................................................................36 Disaster Declaration Connections .....................................................................................36 Hazard Profiles .....................................................................................................................37 Chapter 4 – Hazard Mitigation Strategy ................................................................... 99 Strategy Development Process..........................................................................................99 Use of Hazard and Threat Assessment...............................................................................99 Capabilities Assessment .....................................................................................................99 Hazard Mitigation Strategies and Actions ....................................................................... 107 National Flood Insurance Program .................................................................................. 111 Chapter 5 – Plan Maintenance ............................................................................... 123 Coordinating Body ............................................................................................................ 123 Plan Implementation ........................................................................................................ 123 Plan Maintenance Process ............................................................................................... 124
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Point of Contact ................................................................................................................ 126 Appendix A – HMPC Meeting Materials .......................................................................... A-1 Appendix B – Outreach and Engagement Materials .................................................... B-1 Appendix C – Resolution of Adoption ............................................................................ C-1 Appendix D – List of Key Facilities .................................................................................... D-1 Appendix E – Hazard Mitigation Implementation Handbook ....................................... E-1
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1 Chapter 1 – Introduction
Plan Purpose and Authority
Hazard events can lead to injuries or death, affect a community's overall health and safe ty, damage or destroy public and private property, harm ecosystems, and disrupt key services. Although the hazard event itself often gets the most attention, it is only one part of a larger emergency management cycle.
Emergency planners and responders
can take steps during the response,
recovery, mitigation, and
preparedness phases of the cycle to
minimize the harm caused by a
disaster. This Local Hazard
Mitigation Plan (LHMP) focuses on
optimizing the mitigation phase of
the cycle. Mitigation involves
making a community more resilient
to disasters so that when hazard
events do ultimately occur, the community suffers less damage and can recover more effectively. It differs from preparedness, which involves advanced planning for how best to respond when a disaster occurs or is imminent. For example, a policy to make homes structurally stronger so they suffer less damage during an earthquake is a mitigation action, while fully equipping shelters to accommodate people who l ose their homes in an earthquake is a preparedness action. Some activities may qualify as both.
Like other communities, the City of San Bernardino (City) could potentially suffer severe harm from hazard events. A lthough large disasters may cause widespread devastation, even smaller disasters can have substantial effects. The City cannot make itself completely immune to hazard events, but this LHMP can help make the community a safer place to live, work, and visit. This LHMP provides a comprehensive assessment of the threats that the City faces from natural and human -caused hazard events and a coordina ted strategy to reduce these threats. It identifies resources and information that can help community members, City staff, and local officials understand local threats and make informed decisions. The LHMP can also support increased coordination and collab oration between the City, other public agencies, local employers, service providers, community members, and other key stakeholders.
HAZARD EVENT:
an emergency due to a
natural or human-caused
event that has the potential
to cause harm.
HAZARD MITIGATION:
any sustained action taken
to reduce or eliminate long-
term risk to people and
property from natural or
human-caused hazards and
their effects.
RESILIENCE:
the capacity of any entity
(an individual, a community,
an organization, or a natural
system) to prepare for
disruptions, to recover from
shocks and stresses, and to
adapt and grow from a
disruptive experience.
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2 Federal Authority
The City is not required to prepare an LHMP, but state and federal regulations encourage it. The federal Robert T.
Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Act, amended by
the Disaster Management Act of 2000, creates a federal
framework for local hazard mitigation planning. It states that jurisdictions that wish to be eligible for federal hazard mitigation grant funding must prepare a hazard
mitigation plan that meets a certain set of guidelines and submit this plan to the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) for review and approval. The following
regulations and guidelines apply to this plan:
F
EDERAL LAWS
• Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency
Assistance Act (Stafford Act), as amended.
FEDERAL REGULATIONS
• 44 CFR Part 201 Mitigation Planning
• 44 CFR, Part 60, Subpart A, including § 60.3 Flood plain management criteria for flood-prone areas
• 44 CFR Part 77 Flood Mitigation Grants
• 44 CFR Part 206 Subpart N. Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
FEDERAL GUIDANCE
• FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide (FP 206-21-0002), effective May 2023.
State Authority
CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT CODE SECTIONS 8685.9 AND 65302.6
California Government Code Section 8685.9 (also known as Assembly Bill 2140) limits the State of California's share of disaster relief funds paid out to local governments to 75 percent of the funds not paid for by federal disaster relief efforts unless the jurisdiction has adopted a valid hazard mitigation plan consistent with the Disaster Management Act of 2000 and has incorporated the hazard mitigation plan into the jurisdiction's general plan. The State may cover more than 75 percent of the remaining dis aster relief costs in these cases.
All cities and counties in California must prepare a general plan, including a safety element that addresses various hazard conditions and other public safety issues. The safety element may be a stand-alone chapter or incorporated into another section, as the community wishes. California Government Code Section 65302.6 indicates t hat a community may adopt an LHMP into its safety element if the LHMP meets applicable state requirements. This allows communities to use the LHMP to satisfy state requirements for safety elements. As the General Plan is an overarching long -term plan for community growth and development, incorporating the LHMP into it creates a stronger mechanism for implementing the LHMP.
FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide
provides the official policy and interpretation of the
applicable statutes and mitigation planning
regulations in 44 Code of Federal Regulations
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3 CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 65302 (G)(4)
California Government Code Section 65302 (g)(4), also known as Senate Bill (SB) 379, requires that the safety element of a community 's general plan address the hazards created or exacerbated by climate change. The safety element must identify how climate change is expected to affect hazard conditions in the community and include measures to adapt and be more resilient to these anticipated changes.
Because the LHMP can be incorporated into the safety element, including these items in the LHMP can satisfy the state requirement. SB 379 requires that climate change be addressed in the safety element when the LHMP is updated after January 1, 2017, for co mmunities that already have an LHMP, or by January 1, 2022, for communities without an LHMP.
This LHMP is consistent with current standards and regulations outlined by the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) and FEMA. It uses the best available science, and its mitigation actions/strategies reflect best practices and community values. It meets the requirements of current state and federal guidelines and makes the City eligible for all appropriate benefits under state and federal law and practices. Note that while FEMA is responsible for reviewing and certifying this LHMP, and Cal OES is responsible for conducting a preliminary review, it does not grant FEMA or Cal OES any increased role in the governance of the City or authorize either agency to take any specific action in the community.
Plan Organization and Use
The San Bernardino LHMP is both a reference document and an action plan. It has information and resources to educate readers and decision -makers about hazard events and related issues and a comprehensive strategy that the City and community members can follow to improve its resilience. It is divided into the following chapters:
• Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter describes the background of the Plan, its goals and objectives, and the process used in its development.
• Chapter 2: Community Profile. This chapter discusses the history of San Bernardino, its physical setting and land uses, demographics, and other important community characteristics. • Chapter 3: Hazard Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment. This chapter identifies and describes the hazards that threaten San Bernardino and discusses past and future events and the effects of climate change. The chapter also describes the threat of each hazard on San Bernardino's key facilities and community members, including socially vulnerable individuals. • Chapter 4: Mitigation Strategy. This chapter lists the mitigation actions to reduce San Bernardino's vulnerability to hazard events and provides an overview of the community's existing capabilities to improve hazard resilience.
• Chapter 5: Plan Maintenance. This chapter summarizes the process for implementing, monitoring, and updating the LHMP and opportunities for continued public involvement.
Previous San Bernardino LHMP
The San Bernardino City Council adopted the 2016 San Bernardino LHMP on October 14, 2016. This plan expired on October 15, 2021. An active plan allows the City to maintain its eligibility for FEMA hazard mitigation grant funding sources, which occur annually through FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Programs budgeted by Congress or periodically as a part of a federally declared disaster.
Key updated elements from the previous San Bernardino LHMP include the following:
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4 • Updated Plan Goals
• Integration of the San Bernardino General Plan (once update is complete), 2021-2029 Housing Element, and Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment into the Community Profile, Hazards Assessment, and Vulnerability Assessment chapters of the plan • Expanded historic events discussions within the plan
• Updated Capabilities Assessment
• Updated Mitigation Actions and Strategies, which include progress on previous actions Plan Goals
This Plan was developed to broadly increase resilience in San Bernardino . The following goals are from the 2016 LHMP:
• Continue reducing fire hazards in the unincorporated areas of City of San Bernardino and its Special Districts.
• Minimize exposure to hazards and structural damage from geologic and seismic conditions.
General Plan, Section VIII, Safety Element (Goal 10. 7) • Provide adequate flood protection to minimize hazards and structural damage. (General Plan, Safety Element, Goal 10. 6)
In addition, the 2005 Safety Element included the following goals:
• Establish the appropriate infrastructure and facilities to protect the health, safety, and welfare of the City’s businesses, visitors, and residents;
• Enhance the City’s image by providing a safe place to live, work, and play; • Effectively respond to natural and human-caused hazards and disasters; and • Minimize any economic disruption and accelerate the City’s recovery following a disaster.
During the planning process, the Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee (HMPC), identified these new goals to replace the previous goals and ensure better consistency with the updated General Plan Safety Element currently being prepared by the City:
• Protect against threats from natural hazards to life, injury, and property damage for San Bernardino residents and visitors;
• Increase public awareness of potential hazard events; • Preserve critical services and functions by protecting key facilities and infrastructure; • Protect natural systems from current and future hazard conditions; • Coordinate mitigation activities among City departments, with neighboring jurisdictions, and with federal agencies, and;
• Prepare for long-term change in hazard conditions associated with climate change.
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5 Planning Process
State and federal guidance for LHMPs do es not require that jurisdictions follow a standardized planning process. FEMA encourages communities to create their own planning process that reflects local values, goals, and characteristics. FEMA does suggest a general planning process th at follows these general milestones:
For the City of San Bernardino, the planning process used to create this plan is described below.
Hazard Mitigation Planning Committee
The City established an HMPC. The HMPC is comprised of representatives from City departments who are key to hazard mitigation activities. Table 1-1 identifies the members who were invited and/or attended HMPC meetings.
Table 1-1: San Bernardino HMPC Members
Name Title Department
Edelia Eveland Assistant City Manager Administrative Services Samuel Marrinan Interim Building Official Community & Economic Development Dept – Building
Christian Marr Code Enforcement Manager Community & Economic Development Dept – Code
Enforcement
Nathan Freeman Former Director Community & Economic
Development Dept
David Murray Former Deputy City Planner Community and Economic Development – Planning
Barbara Whitehorn Finance Director Finance Dept
Daniel Hernandez Former Director of Public Works Public Works Department Susan Pan City Engineer Public Works - Engineering
Identify the
planning area
and the resources
it contains
Build the planning
team
Create an
outreach team
Identify the risks
and threats to the
community
Review the
community's
capabilities
Develop a hazard
mitigation
strategy
Review and
adopt the plan
Implement the
plan to create a
safe and resilient
community
Keep the plan
current
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6 Ernesto Salinas Public Works Supervisor Public Works Martin Serna San Bernardino City Fire Chief San Bernardino County Fire Protection District
Lt. Michele Mahan Administrative Services
Manager/EOC
Police
Sgt Steve Aranda Special Events/Fleet Police
Lydie Gutfeld Director Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
Miguel Gurrero Director of Water Department Water Department Frank Salazar Water Department
Aaron Pfannenstiel LHMP Project Manager Atlas Planning Solutions Crystal Stueve LHMP Planner Atlas Planning Solutions
Robbie Jackson LHMP Planner Atlas Planning Solutions
Tammy Seale Climate Change Specialist PlaceWorks
Jacqueline Protsman Climate Change Specialist PlaceWorks
The HMPC held three meetings throughout the plan development process to lay out the plan ’s methods and approach, draft, and review content, make revisions, and engage members of the public.
HMPC Meeting #1 (September 20, 2021 ): The HMPC members confirmed the project goals and responsibilities. They revised the community engagement and outreach strategy, confirmed, and prioritized the hazards to be included in the Plan, and identified critical facilities for the threat assessment.
HMPC Meeting #2 (March 2, 2023 ): Member s discussed the results of the hazards assessment and mapping that showed the areas facing an elevated risk. The HMPC also reviewed the hazard prioritization results.
HMPC Meeting #3 (March 23, 2023 ): The HMPC reviewed the risk assessment results to identify the populations and assets that may face greater harm in a hazard event. The HMPC also discussed potential hazard mitigation actions to address vulnerabilities.
Invitations to HMPC meetings, as well as agendas/materials, were provided via email. Appendix A contains copies of HMPC meeting materials, including meeting agendas, sign-in sheets, and other relevant materials distributed to attendees for these meetings.
Public Engagement
Under FEMA guidelines, local hazard mitigation planning processes should create opportunities for members of the public to be involved in plan development—at a minimum, during the initial drafting stage and plan approval. In 2021, the City embarked on a comprehensive General Plan Update called ‘SanBernardino2050.’ The City conducted various public engagement activities as part of this update process. As part of this update, the City conducted in-person public workshops and meetings, as well as virtual workshops and meetings. Several key activities pertaining to the LHMP include the following:
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7 SAN BERNARDINO 2050 FOCUS AREAS COMMUNITY WORKSHOPS
In March 2022, seven community workshops were held in
each of the Wards in San Bernardino to gain valuable feedback from residents, local leaders, and stakeholders on the future land use of the City. Over 150 individuals attended these workshops and participated in the mapping exercise. Results of the City’s community workshops can be accessed at:
https://futuresb2050.com/focus-area-public-input/
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
The City conducted a virtual stakeholder meeting with
representatives from stakeholders within the city .
Information regarding this opportunity to include key
members from within the community is in Appendix B.
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS OUTREACH
Vulnerable population outreach occurred throughout the public engagement process. Stakeholder engagement included invitations to vulnerable populations representatives such as the Mexican Consulate, DaVita Health Centers, the Inland Regional Center, the Salvation Army, and the Central City Lutheran Mission. Physical copies of the LHMP draft were provided at four community centers, two senior centers, and the Center for Individual Development (CID). The CID is a recreation center for people of all ages with physical, developmental, and mental disabilities.
P
UBLIC ENGAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES
In-person engagement allowed members of the public to learn about the hazards of concern identified by the HMPC during this update. City staff presented the LHMP information and survey at the monthly Coffee with a Cop meeting. Additionally, City staff held a Zoom meeting for San Barnardino residents.
Public Engagement Opportunity #1 – October 3, 2023 – Coffee with a Cop Public Engagement Opportunity #2 – October 10, 2023 – Zoom Meeting for Residents Appendix B includes a copy of the materials used to promote these engagement opportunities.
ONLINE ENGAGEMENT
The City recognized that not all community members are able to attend public meetings and conducted public engagement through social media and online platforms. To assist with engagement, the City set up a project website as a simple, one-stop location for community members to learn about the LHMP. The website included information about what an LHMP is and why the City prepared one. It had links to materials and Plan documents as they became available and allowed members of the public to receive notifications about upcoming events.
The City also promoted the planning process through the following online methods:
• San Bernardino's City Website
• Social Media (Facebook, Instagram)
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City of San Bernardino 2024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 8 ONLINE SURVEY
A central part of the engagement strategy was an online survey. This survey asked community members about their experience and familiarity with emergency conditions, their level of preparedness for future emergencies, and preferred actions for the City to take to increase resiliency. The survey was distributed to over 300 individuals from the City’s notification lists and had responses from 6 individuals. A summary of these responses is provided here:
• Nearly 60% of respondents live in San Bernardino, with an additional 17% that live and work in San Bernardino
.
• A
pproximately 80% of respondents have been impacted by a disaster in their current residence. • The top three hazards of concern for respondents were Earthquake/Geologic Hazards, Severe Weather, and Human-caused Hazards (Cyber Threat, Mass Casualty Incident/Terrorism, Civil U
nrest).
• Approximately 50% of respondents showed concern regarding climate change affecting future hazards.
A
ppendix B contains copies of all materials used for public outreach, including the full results of the community survey.
Public Review Draft
On April 22, 2024 , the City released a draft copy of the LHMP for public review and comment. The document was posted electronically on the City 's website as well as at the following library branch locations and community centers for community members to review a hard copy:
• Norman F. Feldheym Central Library
• Howard M. Rowe Branch Library
• Paul Villaseñor Branch Library
• Center for Individual Development
• Delmann Heights Community Center
• Fifth Street Senior Center
• Lytle Creek Community Center
• Verdemont Community Center
• Perris Hill Senior Center
• Rudy C. Hernandez Community Center
City of San Bernardino LHMP Webpage
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2 024 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
9 City of San Bernardino
Social med ia accounts and o ther online sources p rovided notifications about the public review draft.
Plan Revision and Adoption
The City received one public comment on the plan; however, the c omment d id n ot require edits o r modification s to th e plan content. Following public c omment, the City submitted the plan to Cal OES and FEMA. The City then made additional revisions t o in corporate c omments fr om state an d fe deral agencies, as appropriate, and submitted the final draft to City decision-makers. The City Council adopted the final LHMP on May 7th, 2025. Appendix C contains a copy of the
adoption resolution.
Plan Resources
The Ci ty used s everal d ifferent p lans, s tudies, t echnical reports, datasets, and other resources to prepare the hazard assessment, mapping, t hreat assessment, a nd o ther
components o f this P lan. Table 1 -2 provides s ome of t he primary resources the HMPC used to prepare this Plan.
Table 1-2: Key Resources for Plan Development
Section Key Resources Reviewed Data Incorporated from Resource Multiple • Cal-Adapt
• California Department of
Conservation
• California Geological Survey
• California Office of
Emergency Services
• California State Hazard
Mitigation Plan
• 2016 City of San Bernardino
Hazard Mitigation Plan
• Draft 2050 San Bernardino
Plan (General Plan)
• FEMA Local Hazard
Mitigation Plan Guidance
• National Oceanic and
Atmospheric
Administration
• National Weather Service
• US Geological Survey
• Science and background
information on different hazard
conditions
• Records of past disaster events
in and around San Bernardino
• Current and anticipated climate
conditions in and around San
Bernardino
• Projections of future seismic
conditions and events
Community Profile • 2020 US Census Bureau
Decennial Census
• Demographic information for
San Bernardino and San
Bernardino County
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2020 American Community
Survey
• Draft 2050 San Bernardino
Plan (General Plan)
• 2050 San Bernardino Plan
Background Reports
• California Energy
Commission
• History of the region
• Economic trends in San
Bernardino
• Commute patterns in San
Bernardino
• Local land-use patterns
• Background information on
utilities serving San Bernardino
Hazard Assessment
(Dam Failure)
• California Department of
Water Resources
• San Bernardino County
Flood Control District
• US Army Corps of Engineers
• Mapping of dam failure
inundation areas
• Profiles and conditions of dams
in and around San Bernardino
Hazard Assessment
(Flood Hazards)
• FEMA Map Service Center
• San Bernardino County
Flood Control District
• Records of past flood events in
and around San Bernardino
• Locations of flood-prone areas
in San Bernardino
Hazard Assessment
(Human-Caused
Hazards)
• Global Terrorism Database
• Cyber Security Index
• Historical records of terrorism
• Rate of Cyber Attacks over a
period of time
Hazard Assessment
(Hazardous Materials
Release)
• Department of Toxic
Substances and Control
• Environmental Protection
Agency
• Location and dates of past
hazardous materials release
• Effects of hazardous materials
release
Hazard Assessment
(Seismic Hazards)
• California Geological Survey
• United State Geological
S
urvey
• Science and background
information on seismic hazards
• Historical record of seismic
hazard events in and around
San Bernardino
Hazard Assessment
(Severe Weather
Hazards)
• Cal Adapt
• NOAA
• National Weather Service
• US Drought Monitor
• Historical drought information
• Current drought conditions
• Science and background
information on extrem
e
wea
ther events
• Historical Records of extreme
weather events in and around
San Bernardino
Hazard Assessment
(Wildfire)
• California Dept. of Forestry
and Fire Prevention
• Historical fire records
• Location of Fire Hazard zones in
and around San Bernardino
Note: Sections not individually identified in this table relied primarily on sources identified in multiple sections.
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11 Chapter 2 – Community Profile
The Community Profile section of the LHMP
summarizes San Bernardino, including information
about the community 's physical setting, history,
economy and demographics, current and future
land uses, and key infrastructure. The Community
Profile helps to establish the baseline conditions in
San Bernardino, which inform the development of
the hazard mitigation actions in Chapter 4.
Setting and Location
The City of San Bernardino is located in the Inland
Empire in Western San Bernardino County,
approximately 60 miles east of Los Angeles and 70
miles west of Palm Springs , at the base of the Sa n
Bernardino Mountains. The c ity is bordered by the
neighboring cities of Highland, Rialto, Fontana,
Redlands, Loma Linda, and Colton, as well as the San
Manuel Indian Reservation.
San Bernardino is unique among Southern
Californian cities because of its wealth of water,
which is mostly contained in underground aquifers.
A large part of the city is over the Bunker Hill Groundwater Basin, including downtown, accounting for a historically high water table in portions of the city, including at the former Urbita Springs, a lake that no longer exists and is now the site of the Inland Center Mall. Seccombe Lake, named after a former mayor, is a human-made lake at Sierra Way and 5th Street.
The City has several notable hills and mountains; among them are Perris Hill (named after Fred Perris, an early engineer and the namesake of Perris, California); Kendall Hill (near California State University); and Little Mountain, which rises among Shandin Hills (generally bounded by Sierra Way, 30th Street, Kendall Drive, and Interstate 215).
1 History
Paleo-Indian sites dating from circa 10,000 BC show that the City of San Bernardino area has been inhabited for at least 12,000 years. Artifacts in the nearby Calico area suggest much earlier human occupation, but this has not been confirmed. In the past t hree thousand years, various Native American tribes flourished in the area: the Gabrielenos occupied the West Valley; the Serranos lived in the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains; the Vanyumes lived along the Mojave River; the Mohave lived along the Colorado River; and the Chemehuevi occupied the Mojave Desert.
1 2016 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan
San Bernardino Quick Facts
Elevation:
1,053 ft above sea level
Area:
62.5 square miles
Incorporated:
1854
Government Type:
Council-Manager
Population (2020 Census estimate):
222,101
Nearest cities:
Muscoy, CA – 2.6 miles
Rialto, CA – 4.8 miles
Colton, CA – 5.9 miles
Highland, CA – 6.2 miles
Loma Linda, CA – 6.6 miles
Grand Terrace, CA – 7.1 miles
Bloomington, CA – 7.7 miles
Crestline, CA – 8.4 miles
Nearest city with population 200,000+*:
Fontana, CA (9.2 miles, pop. 212,809)
Nearest city with population 1,000,000+*:
Los Angeles, CA (60.0 miles, pop. 3.820 million)
* California Department of Finance
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12 The first European explorers to enter the area were Pedro Fages, Military Commander of California, in 1772 and Fr. Francisco Garces, a missionary priest, in 1774. On May 20, 1810, Franciscan missionary Francisco Dumatz of the San Gabriel Mission led his company into a valley. In observance of the feast day of St. Bernardine of Siena, Dumatz named the valley San Bernardino. This name was later given to the nearby mountain range and later the city and county. In 1842, the Lugo family was granted the Rancho San Bernardino, a holding of 37,700 acres encompassing the entire San Bernardino Valley. Captain Jefferson Hunt of the Mormon Battalion led a group of settlers into San Bernardino and founded a Mormon Colony. In 1851, the Mormon Colony purchased the Rancho f rom the Lugo family. On April 26, 1853, the City of San Bernardino was created from parts of Los Angeles, San Diego, and Mariposa Counties.
In 1854, the City of San Bernardino was incorporated as the county seat.
In 1857, three orange trees were planted on a farm in Old San Bernardino. By 1882, a rail carload of oranges and lemons grown in the East Valley was shipped to Denver, Colorado. As early as the 1840s, vineyards were planted in the Cucamonga area, and in the 1870 census , the City of San Bernardino was credited with producing 48,720 gallons of wine. In 1860, gold was discovered in Holcomb and Bear Valleys in the San Bernardino Mountains, and placer mining began in Lytle Creek. Silver was mined at Ivanpah in 1870, and the r ich silver mines of the Calico district were developed in the 1880s. Borax was first discovered in 1761 at Searles Dry Lake near Trona and transported out by twelve -, eighteen- or twenty- mule team wagons. All these mining operations received supplies and support from city businesses and used the city as a shipping point for their products. After World War II, the citrus industry slowly declined.
However, dairies relocated out of Los Angeles County and settled in the Chino Valley area, creating a robust dairy industry that included the City of San B ernardino. Elsewhere in the Valley region, suburbs grew as moderate-priced housing developments were built. By the late 1980s, the city ha d grown into a bedroom community and warehousing center for Southern California.
Demographics
The data used in this section comes from the most comprehensive American Community Survey (ACS 5- Year Estimates 2016-2020), administered by the United States Census Bureau (US Census) completed in 2020, the 2020 Decennial Census, and 2022 Census estimates. Based on these datasets, San Bernardino's 2020 population was estimated to be 222,101, with a median age of 32.4, which is 1.2 years younger than the rest of San Bernardino County (33.6 years old). Comparatively, the number of senior residents aged 65 and older is less than the rest of San Bernardino County, while San Bernardino County residents are slightly wealthier. In addition, a higher proportion of San Bernardino residents rent compared to San Bernardino County. Table 2 -1 shows the basic demographics for San Bernardino and San Bernardino County. According to the 2022 San Bernardino County Continuum of Care Homeless Count and Survey, the city has a homeless population of 1,350 people (992 unsheltered and 358 sheltered). The 2022 count shows a 28% increase in the homeless populatio n from 2020. It can be assessed that the number of homeless people in the city is likely to be higher than reported, as it is extremely difficult to count people living in cars, abandoned buildings, and other deserted places. Additionally, some of the homeless population may not wish to be found.
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13 Table 2-1: Basic Demographics, San Bernardino and San Bernardino County Demographics San
Bernardino
San Bernardino
County
Total Population 222,101 2,181,654
Percent of children who are less than 10 years old 14.9% 14.3% Percent of residents who are senior citizens (65+) 9.6% 12.1% Median Age 32.4 33.6
Total households 63,331 640,090
Median household income $65,311 $65,761
Percent of rental households 51.2% 39.9%
Note: Percentage values are rounded to the nearest tenth decimal.
Source: 2020 US Decennial Census, US Census ACS Survey 2016-2020
In terms of its racial and ethnic composition, San Bernardino is a racially diverse city, with 40% percent of all San Bernardino residents identifying as some other race alone. The second-largest population is white, with 24.2% percent of all residents identifying as such. This population makeup mirrors greater San Bernardino County due to a high proportion of white and some other race alone populations. Table 2-2 shows the racial and ethnic composition of all groups in San Bernardino and San Bernardino County.
A higher percentage of San Bernardino residents have completed a high school diploma or equivalent when compared to the County. However, a smaller proportion of the population has attained bachelor's and professional degrees, 8% of the city's residents versus roughly 14 % of the County's residents. Table 2-3 shows all levels of educational attainment of residents 25 years of age or older in both San Bernardino and San Bernardino County.
San Bernardino has a wide range of non -English languages spoken at home among its residents, with varying proficiency levels. Generally, Spanish is the most spoken language at home other than English in San Bernardino, with approximately 32.2% who are not fluent in English and speak it less than "very well." This is approximately 1.5% lower than the countywide population of Spa nish language speakers. Asian and Pacific Islander languages are the third most -spoken languages in San Bernardino, with over half (65.7%) of these speakers unable to speak English fluently. This is higher than the rest of San Bernardino County, where approximately 46.8% of Asian and Pacific Islander language speakers cannot speak English fluently. Table 2-4 shows the most spoken languages in San Bernardino and the levels of fluency among speakers aged five and older in San Bernardino and San Bernardino County.
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14 Table 2-2: Racial and Ethnic Composition, San Bernardino and San Bernardino County Race or Ethnicity San Bernardino San Bernardino County
Population Percentage Population Percentage
White 53,786 24.2% 782,691 35.9%
Black 27,875 12.6% 184,558 8.6%
American Indian and Alaskan
Native
5,029 2.3% 41,663 1.9%
Asian 9,279 4.2% 182,287 8.4%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific
Islander
920 0.4% 7,461 0.3%
Some Other Race Alone 87,961 39.6% 621,140 28.5%
Two or more races 37,251 16.8% 361,854 16.6%
Lantinx (of any race) * 151,125 68.0% 1,224,685 56.1%
Total 222,101 100% 2,181,654 100%
* The US Census Bureau does not currently count persons who identify as Latinx as a separate racial or ethnic category. Persons who identify as Hispanic or Latinx are already included in the other racial or ethnic categories.
Note: Percentage values are rounded to the nearest tenth decimal.
Source: 2020 US Decennial Census, US Census ACS Survey 2016-2020
Table 2-3: Educational Attainment of Residents 25+ Years of Age Educational Attainment San Bernardino San Bernardino County Number Percentage Number Percentage
Less than 9th grade 15,969 12.3% 116,664 8.5%
9th grade to 12th grade (no
diploma)
22,804 17.6% 147,371 10.8%
High school graduate or
equivalent
38,706 29.9% 361,289 26.4%
Some college (no degree) 27,520 21.2% 332,044 24.3%
Associate’s degree 9,300 7.2% 118,673 8.7%
Bachelor's degree 10,530 8.1% 190,544 13.9%
Graduate or professional degree 4,785 3.7% 101,693 7.4% Total 129,614 100% 1,368,278 100%
Note: Percentage values are rounded to the nearest tenth decimal.
Source: 2020 US Decennial Census, US Census ACS Survey 2016-2020
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15 Table 2-4: English Proficiency and Languages Spoken at Home (2020) Languages San Bernardino San Bernardino County
Number of
Speakers
Speak English Less
Than "Very Well"
Number of
Speakers
Speak English Less
Than "Very Well"
English only 98,876 - 1,171,425 -
Spanish 101,159 32,559
(32.2%)
689,338 232,270
(33.7%)
Indo-European* 1,603 582
(36.3%)
27,134 7,379
(27.2%)
Asian and Pacific Islander* 4,759 3,125
(65.7%)
104,417 48,824
(46.8%)
All other languages 1,212 176
(14.5%)
17,498 6,487
(37.1%)
Total 207,609 36,442** 2,009,812 294,960**
*Census data does not break down the specific languages for languages spoken in these regions **Due to these figures only being a percentage of the overall number of speakers, they will not add up to 100%.
Note: Percentage values are rounded to the nearest tenth decimal.
Source: 2020 US Decennial Census, US Census ACS Survey 2016-2020
Economy and Commute Patterns
San Bernardino has a diverse economy of employers
from various sectors, including distribution,
retail/wholesale trade, administrative support,
construction, entertainment, health services, and
education. With a total employment base of 22,719
employees, the top employer in the city is the County of San Bernardino. The second -largest employer is Stater
Brothers, with 18,000 employees. The next top three
employers are San Bernardino City Unified School
District, Kaiser Permanente – Fontana Med, and
Arrowhead Regional Medical Center. Table 2-5 shows
the top five employers in San Bernardino in 2022.
As of 2020, 82,828 San Bernardino residents are employed, with approximately 17,837 (21.5%) working within the city. This local workforce accounts for 15.6% of the entire workforce , approximately 114,629 employees (2020), with the remaining workforce coming from surrounding cities throughout the region.
Table 2-6 shows the top five cities that contribute to San Bernardino's workforce, which accounts for over 33% of those employed within the city.
UPS air and ground sorting facility at San Bernardino
International Airport. Image from Connectcre.com
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16 Table 2-5: Top Employers in San Bernardino
Employer Number of Employees
County of San Bernardino 22,719
Stater Brothers 18,000
San Bernardino City Unified School District 6,400
Kaiser Permanente – Fontana Med 1,000 – 4,999
Arrowhead Regional Medical Center 1,000-4,999
*Per EDD, employment numbers are confidential; therefore, only the data for the range of numbers of employees is available.
Source: City of San Bernardino Annual Comprehensive Financial Report Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2022
Table 2-6: Top Five Cities-of-Origin for San Bernardino's Workforce (2020) Cities-of-Origin for San Bernardino's Workforce Number of Employees Percentage San Bernardino 17,837 15.6%
Fontana 5,796 5.1%
Riverside 4,896 4.3%
Highland 4,763 4.2%
Moreno Valley 4,444 3.9%
Total 37,736 33.1%
Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
While the majority of San Bernardino 's residents commute outside the c ity for work, most of those residents (41.0%) travel less than 10 miles to reach their place of employment. Approximately 17.8% of commuters traveled 50 miles or more, with most of those trips heading into the Los Angeles area. The city boasts convenient freeway, rail, and international air access to Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, and Riverside Counties. Table 2 -7 shows the outflow of workers from San Bernardino to other regional worksites.
Table 2-7: Work Commute Distances for San Bernardino's Residents (2020) Work Destinations for San Bernardino's Residents Number Percentage Less than 10 miles 33,964 41.0%
10 to 24 miles 21,332 25.8%
25 to 50 miles 12,816 15.5%
Greater than 50 miles 14,716 17.8%
Total 82,828 100%
Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Development Trends
San Bernardino is located within a dense part of San Bernardino County that has experienced significant growth and development over the past 30 years. The population of the City has grown by approximately 11,617 residents since 2010.
State Housing Law mandates the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) as part of the periodic update of General Plan housing elements. Through the RHNA process, a community decid es how to
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17 address existing and future housing needs resulting from population, employment , and household growth. 2
At the time of the writing of the LHMP, the City was in the process of a comprehensive update to the city’s General Plan called The San Bernardino 2050 Plan. This collection of documents will help guide the development and conservation of the City over the next 25 years. According to the San Bernardino 2050 Plan, the City is anticipating growth in both the number of residential units and the corresponding population.
San Bernardino’s RHNA allocation and housing goal for 2021 -2029 is 8,123 housing units. To accommodate the units, the City has identified sites on appropriately zoned land, projects in the entitlement and development process since July 2021, and future dev elopment of accessory dwellings.
The City can fully accommodate the RHNA allocation through the combined approaches, with a 22% buffer for lower-income units, a 73% buffer for moderate-income units, and an 8% buffer for above moderate- income units. Table 2-8 depicts this anticipated growth and development that will meet the City’s RHNA allocation requirements.
Table 2-8: 2021-2029 City of San Bernardino Regional Housing Needs Allocation Income Levels
Lower Moderate Above
Moderate
Total
RHNA Allocation 2,512 1,448 4,163 8,123
RHNA Credits (Projects and Vacant Sites)
Pipeline Projects towards RHNA 644 483 964 2,091
ADUS Permitted (2021-2023) 264 194 -- 458
ADU’s Projections (2024-2029) 690 510 -- 1,200
Existing Residential Vacant Land 0 753 3,388 4,141
Existing Residential Vacant Land
Total Remaining Need without
Rezones
914 -492 -189 --
Vacant Residential Land for Upzone 740 0 0 740
Surplus Sites for Rezone 308 0 97 405
Final Summary
Total Units towards RHNA 2,646 1,940 4,449 --
Count Over/Under RHNA 134 492 286 --
Source: Draft 2021-2029 Housing Element- City of San Bernardino
San Bernardino has a significant capacity for residential development . The City’s associated housing strategy can be divided into three strategies . Each strategy's time frame is related to market demand, infrastructure, and planning tools that need to be created to guide future residential development. These three strategies are
3:
2 What is RHNA? https://scag.ca.gov/rhna
3 Draft 2021-2029 San Bernardino Housing Element
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18 • Specific Plans Development. The City has several specific plans in northwest San Bernardino that provide significant growth opportunities. Presently, the City is not crediting development capacity in this area because these specific plans are anticipated to be revised following the comprehensive General Plan update. Therefore, this land use strategy is anticipated to be used for the 7th cycle RHNA.
• Corridor/TOD Mixed Use Sites. The General Plan update will target mixed uses along the City’s major corridors and within the City’s 13 transit villages that are oriented around the SBx transit line. While mixed-use is envisioned and is anticipated to occur in select areas, it is not anticipated to materialize communitywide for some time. Therefore, since mixed-use is an emerging concept in San Bernardino, this strategy is anticipated for the 7th cycle RHNA. • Infill Development Opportunities. The City’s housing element focuses on vacant sites within existing urban areas (e.g., “infill”) and is most feasible to develop during the 2021- 2029 planning period. The sites chosen are vacant, adequately served by infrastructure, and could immediately be developed. Infill potential also includes two specific plan areas—the Downtown (under development) and the Waterman+Baseline Specific Plan areas.
Figure 2-1 displays the areas of housing element sites.
Vulnerability and Risk Reduction
All new development occurring in the areas of change identified in Figure 2- 1 will provide hazard vulnerability and risk reduction for the city. This reduction will occur due to the anticipated improvements and investments implemented in the older parts of the City as a result of the San Bernardino 2050 Plan.
In addition, the new developments that will be built will comply with the most up-to-date building codes and use the latest techniques, further reducing vulnerabilities throughout the City.
Major Community Elements
San Bernardino International Airport
San Bernardino International Airport is a public airport approximately two miles from downtown San Bernardino in San Bernardino County, CA. Formed in 1992, the San Bernardino International Airport Authority (SBIAA) is a regional joint powers authority created by and through State Legislation to serve as the owner, developer, and operator of the aeronautical portions of the former Norton Air Force Base, now known as the San Bernardino International Airport. The airport covers approximately 1,329 acres and has one runway. The facility is a commercial, general aviation, and cargo airport and has a domestic terminal and an international travel terminal.4
4 https://www.sbdairport.com/facilities-amenities/airport-facts/
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19 Figure 2-1: Sites Identified to Accommodate the 6th Cycle RHNA, San Bernardino
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20 National Orange Show Event Center
The National Orange Show Event Center is a full-service event center that spans over 120 acres and offers 150,000 square feet of indoor exhibit space, a quarter-mile speedway, a state-of-the-art satellite wagering center, and can accommodate more than 40,000 attendees and park approximately 8,000 cars. The center’s mission is to promote and preserve the citrus industry; manage and operate year -round recreational and cultural facilities to attract special events focusing on education and family entertainment; and support the community through charitable programs, scholarships, and active community involvement.5
San Manuel Stadium
San Manuel Stadium has been the home of the Inland Empire 66ers minor league baseball team since its inception in 1996. The 66ers are a Class -A affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and have won five California League championships during their time at San Manuel Stadium. The stadium is located in downtown San Bernardino and can hold 8,000 people. In addition to baseball games, San Manuel hosts concerts, movies, and festivals.6
Open Space/Glen Helen Regional Park
The City of San Bernardino is home to thirty -three parks that span approximately five hundred acres of open space and developed land. Glen Helen Regional Park is a County-owned park located in northwest San Bernardino. The park offers 1,340 acres of recreational activities, two lakes for fishing, a swimming pool, and large group shelter picnic areas. Glen Helen Regional Park is also home to the Glen Helen Amphitheater, a 65,000-seat outdoor concert venue; the Glen Helen Raceway, an off-highway competitive event facility; and the annual Sheriff’s Rodeo.7
Infrastructure Assessment
Infrastructure plays a vital role in mitigating the effects of hazard events. When infrastructure fails, it can exacerbate the extent of certain hazards or create complications for rescue workers trying to reach victims. For example, because of strong winds or seismic activity, fallen utility poles can obstruct roadways and prevent emergency vehicles from reaching affected areas. The following are electrical, fossil fuel, hydrologic, and transportation infrastructure networks in San Bernardino.
Electricity
San Bernardino receives its electrical supply from Southern California Edison (SCE). Fifteen substations are located within the City, connecting 220kV and 66 kV powerlines that run east to west and north to south.
These lines bring power to San Bernardino and the surrounding cities and connect to other regional power sources. These connections help San Bernardino access auxiliary electricity sources should any of its immediate infrastructure fail. However, a larger and more regional failure of the power grid would likely disrupt power transmission to San Bernardino for an extended time until power can be restored.
5 https://www.nosevents.com/about/
6 https://www.vinverifications.com/san-manuel-stadium-in-san-bernardino/ 7 https://parks.sbcounty.gov/park/glen-helen-regional-park/
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21 Natural Gas
San Bernardino receives its natural gas from Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas). To ensure sufficient natural gas transmission throughout the region, SoCalGas owns and operates one transmission line that transects the city. The pipeline traverses the city from west to east along Mill Street, turns south on Tippecanoe Ave, and turns to the east again at E. San Bernardino Ave. If these lines are damaged, there is a potential to interrupt the flow and delivery of natural gas throughout the city.
Additionally, natural gas ignites very easily, and any rupture in a transmission line could cause additional damage to properties near the leak due to fire from the escaped natural gas. The presence of this infrastructure creates unique challenges for the city from an emergency management perspective.
Including hazards associated with damage to this infrastructure is an important element of an effective response to future incidents involving natural gas use and transmission.
Public Safety Power Shutoff
Under California law, the State's investor-owned utilities have general authority to shut off electric power to protect public safety. Utilities exercise this authority during severe wildfire threat conditions as a preventative measure of last resort through Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS).
The City began preparation for PSPS events by understanding the potential circuits that could be impacted ( Figure 2-2) and the city needs and special populations that may be affected by these events. These incidents typically occur during high fire threat conditions (i.e., dry conditions and strong winds) and may affect communities located far away from any actively occurring fires .
Although not all SCE circu its in the city have been de -energized during past PSPS events, the city must be prepared if a future PSPS event affects one of those circuits. Residents and businesses in these areas are sure to feel the impacts of these events if they do not have alternative options for electricity at their homes and places of business.
These events are a lso anticipated to affect City resources since some City facilities rely on electricity to function. As a result, the City has prioritized back up power generation at City facilities in these affected areas to ensure residents have a safe place to seek refuge, if needed, during these events.
City of San Bernardino Municipal Water Department
The City of San Bernardino Municipal Water District (SBMWD) has a service area of approximately 55 square miles and provides water service to customers within the City of San Bernardino, with a small percentage of out-of-city accounts. SBMWD relies solely on water extracted from the underlying aquifer, the Bunker Hill Groundwater Basin, to meet its demands. This water is distributed via SBMWD’s water distribution system consisting of pipelines, storage reservoirs, pumping stations, hydroelectric generating stations, manual and automatic control valves, fire hydrants, and water meters located throughout 23 individual pressure zones.
8 8 2019 San Bernardino Municipal Water Department Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.
Figure 2-2: SCE Public Safety Power Shutoff Circuits
surrounding the City
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22 The SBMWD provides water service to approximately 44,000 active service connections within its 55 - square-mile service area in San Bernardino and surrounding areas. The SBMWD operates and maintains 38 storage tanks, 53 water wells, and nearly 750 miles of water pipelines. In addition, the SBMWD has recently taken ownership of the City of San Bernardino’s wastewater collection system. The SBMWD has owned and operated the wastewater treatment system for over 60 years but didn’t own or operate the wastewater co llection system. The collection system was owned and operated by the City of San Bernardino Public Works Department. In 2017, the city turned over ownership, maintenance, and control of the collections system. The collection system had not been updated in many years. The SBMWD now operates 466 miles of wastewater pipelines and has 64,342 customer wastewater laterals within the city and county areas. The wastewater system treats, on average, 22 million gallons of wastewater daily.9 Transportation
Much of the transportation infrastructure in San Bernardino consists of roadways for automobiles, but there are many modes of travel into and out of the City. In total, freeways, buses/shuttles, local commuter trains, and air travel support mobility in and out of the City.
Freeways/highways, Interstate (I), I-10, I-15, I-215, State Route (SR) SR-18 (also referred to as N Waterman Ave) and SR-330 connect San Bernardino to the greater Southern California region. The interchanges from these freeways and highways connect to major thoroughfares within the City. Table 2 -9 identifies these major routes that connect to the City’s local transportation network.
Table 2-9: City of San Bernardino Transportation Infrastructure Freeways/Highways in
San Bernardino
Direction Exits Serving the City of San Bernardino
I-10 East-West
Exit ( 73A) Waterman Ave S , (73B) Waterman Ave N , (74) Anderson St, Tippecanoe Ave
I-210 East-West Exit ( 73) State St, University Pkwy; (75) H St.; (76) CA-18; Waterman Ave; (78) Del Rosa Ave; (79) Highland Ave
I-215 North-South Exit (41) Orange Show Rd., Autoplaza Drive; (42) Inland Center Drive, Colton; (43) W 2nd St., W 3rd St; (44A) CA 66; (44B) Baseline St.; (45A) CA 259; (46A) Highland Ave; CA 210 W; (48) University Pkwy; (50) Palm Ave, Kendall Dr; (54A) Devore Rd.
Source: iExitapp.com
Public transportation options within San Bernardino are provided by two public transit agencies that operate local bus and train service s, Omnitrans and Metrolink, which are all regulated by the San Bernardino County Transportation Authority (SBCTA ). Serving more than 2.1 million residents of San Bernardino County, the SBCTA is responsible for cooperative regional planning and furthering an efficient multi-modal transportation system countywide. The SBCTA administers Measure I, the half- cent transportation sales tax approved by county voters in 1989, and supports freeway construction projects,
9 Ibid.
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23 regional and local road improvements, train and bus transportation, railroad crossings, call boxes, ridesharing, congestion management efforts, and long-term planning studies. 10 Omnitrans provides fourteen routes
servicing local San Bernardino
neighborhoods, neighboring cities in
San Bernardino County, and one
express service route that connects
San Bernardino with Loma Linda.
The Metrolink provides local and
regional train service in San
Bernardino, out of three stations
within San Bernardino: San Bernardino
– Downtown (174 South E Street), San
Bernardino Depot (1170 W. 3
rd Street),
and San Bernardino – Tippecanoe
(1498 S Tippecanoe Ave). The San
Bernardino – Tippecanoe station
provides the Metrolink San Bernardino
Line, and the San Bernardino – Downtown and San Bernardino Depot Stations provide both the San Bernardino Line and the Inland Empire -Orange County Line. The Inland Empire -Orange County line provides service from San Bernardino to Oceanside.
10 San Bernardino County Transportation Authority
Metrolink’s San Bernardino Depot Station, located in the City of San Bernardino. Photo Courtesy of Metrolink
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25 Chapter 3 – Risk Assessment and Threat and Vulnerability Assessment
This chapter discusses the hazards that might reasonably occur in San Bernardino . It describes these hazards and how they are measured, where in San Bernardino they may occur, a history of these hazards in and around San Bernardino , and the future risk they pose. The discussion of future risks includes any changes to the frequency, intensity, and/or location of these hazards due to climate change. This chapter also discusses how the HMPC selected and prioritized the hazards in this Plan.
The threat assessment process looks at the potential harm of each hazard event discussed in each hazard profile.
Hazard Identification
FEMA guidance identifies several hazards that communities should evaluate for inclusion in a hazard mitigation plan. Communities may also consider additional hazards for their plans. The HMPC reviewed the previous hazards in the 2016 plan and discussed other potential hazards, excluding ones that do not pose a threat or are not a significant concern to San Bernardino. Table 3-1 lists the hazards considered and explains the reasoning for inclusion/exclusion. For context, this table also shows if a hazard is recommended for consideration by FEMA, is included in the 2018 California State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) and is included in the San Bernardino County Hazard Mitigation Plan (SBC HMP).
Table 3-1: Hazard Evaluation for San Bernardino LHMP
Hazard Recommended
for
Consideration
Included
in LHMP?
Reason for Inclusion or Exclusion
Agricultural Pests SHMP No While historically, agricultural activities have occurred within the City; these areas are moving out of the
community and being replaced by new residential,
commercial, and industrial developments. Without the
presence of these large agricultural areas in the
community, the HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern for the City.
Air Pollution SHMP No Air pollution is a state and regional issue addressed through plans and regulations administered by the South Coast Air Quality Management District and/or California Air Resources Board. Since the City does not regulate
these resources, the HMPC did not identify this as a
hazard of concern that could be addressed in this plan.
Aircraft Incident SHMP No San Bernardino International Airport is located within the City. This facility is operated under a Joint Powers
Agreement (JPA) that the City is party to; however, the JPA conducts all planning activities for the facility. Given the lack of control over this asset and the few past
incidents associated with aircraft incidents that have
occurred, the HMPC determined that this hazard should
not be included in the plan.
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26 Aquatic Invasive
Species
SHMP No There are no major riparian environments in San Bernardino where aquatic invasive species could
endanger the community.
Avalanche FEMA guidance
SHMP
No San Bernardino is not located within potential avalanche zones.
Civil Disturbance
or Riot
SHMP Yes The HMPC determined that civil disturbances of the degree that could endanger property or the life of
residents or visitors could occur, especially in locations of the City where large populations visit/congregate
(National Orange Show) or city-owned facilities (Police Department).
Climate Change SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes Climate change is discussed as a function of each relevant hazard and is mentioned throughout the Plan.
Coastal Flooding
and Storm
FEMA guidance
SHMP
No San Bernardino is not located along the coast of
California. Coastal flooding and storms are not
anticipated to impact the community.
Cyber Threats SHMP Yes With the increase in cyber threats occurring throughout California and the nation, the HMPC is concerned about
their effects on communications. This hazard is addressed as a function of communications failure.
Dam Failure FEMA guidance
SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes San Bernardino is located downstream of dams that could inundate the community. Due to the city’s location
downstream of these facilities, the HMPC identified dam failure as a hazard of concern.
Drought SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes The HMPC identified droughts as a recurring and
potentially severe hazard in San Bernardino.
Energy Shortage SHMP No While energy shortage can potentially occur in San Bernardino, the risk associated with this is similar to surrounding communities. While the loss of power could
occur, the bigger concern for the City is the effects this could have on the communications infrastructure
responsible for connecting the City in times of
emergency.
Epidemic,
Pandemic,
Vector-Borne
Disease
SHMP No San Bernardino is in San Bernardino County, which has experienced several health-related incidents in the past.
The City and the rest of the country have recently
responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has
impacted staff and resources. However, the HMPC felt
this issue did not need to be addressed within the LHMP.
Erosion FEMA guidance
SHMP
No Due to its relatively flat nature and lack of hills, the HMPC did not identify erosion as a hazard of concern for the City.
Expansive Soil FEMA guidance No The HMPC did not identify expansive soils as a hazard of concern. While they could exist, the City requires
compliance with the California Building Code, which is
intended to mitigate hazards associated with this
condition.
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27 Extreme Cold FEMA guidance
SHMP
No Temperatures in San Bernardino do not fall to a level that would be considered a danger to public safety. Due to
this, the HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of
concern.
Extreme Heat FEMA guidance
SHMP
Yes Extreme heat has occurred in San Bernardino and is
expected to be a future recurring issue. This issue was identified by the HMPC as a hazard of concern and
included in the Severe Weather profile.
Fault Rupture FEMA guidance
SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes There are known Alquist-Priolo fault zones located within San Bernardino. As a result, the HMPC identified this as a hazard of concern to the City.
Flooding FEMA guidance
SHMP
Yes Several watercourses transect the City and are identified within FEMA flood hazard zones. The presence of these
flood zones indicates the potential for future hazards. The HMPC identified flooding as a hazard of concern included in the Flooding profile.
Fracking SHMP No Fracking does not occur in San Bernardino.
Hail FEMA guidance No Hail that is severe enough to pose a threat to people and property is too rare in San Bernardino to be included.
Hazardous
Materials release
SHMP Yes The presence of uses for storing, manufacturing, disposing, and transporting hazardous materials was
identified as a concern for the HMPC. In addition, several major roadways, freeways, and rail lines transecting the City allow for transporting these materials that could
endanger the community if a release into the
environment were to occur.
Hurricane FEMA guidance
SHMP
No Hurricanes do not occur in San Bernardino.
Infrastructure
Failure
SHMP No Infrastructure failure can pose a threat to people and property in San Bernardino. A discussion of infrastructure failure is discussed as a function of other hazards.
Landslide
(Earthquake-
Induced)
FEMA guidance
SHMP
Yes Areas within the City of San Bernardino are considered to have a high potential for earthquake-induced landslides.
As a result, the HMPC felt including this hazard in the plan was essential.
Levee Failure SHMP No While levees are located within the City, they were not deemed a significant concern. These levees are owned
and managed by San Bernardino County, and the City
does not have the authority to address these facilities but coordinates with the County on issues and upgrades.
Based on this, the HMPC did not include Levee failure as a hazard of concern.
Lightning FEMA guidance No Although lightning occasionally occurs in San Bernardino, it does not pose a significant threat to people or
property.
Liquefaction FEMA guidance
SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes Portions of the city are located within potential
liquefaction areas, identifying a concern of the HMPC.
This hazard has been included as part of the Seismic
Hazards profile.
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28 Methane-
containing Soils
SBC HMP No The City does not have methane-containing soils that pose a threat to the public health and safety of residents and businesses. The HMPC did not identify this as a
hazard of concern to the City.
Natural Gas
Pipeline Hazards
SHMP No Natural gas pipelines traverse San Bernardino, posing a danger to people and property if they were to breach and release their contents. This condition is discussed in the Community Profile in Chapter 2 and is discussed in the
vulnerability assessment where applicable.
Oil Spills SHMP No There is no history of oil drilling and extraction within the City. Based on this, the HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern to the City.
Power Failure SHMP No While power loss events can occur in the City, the HMPC determined that this hazard shouldn't be addressed
within the LHMP and is better suited as a hazard
addressed in the City’s EOP.
Radiological
Accidents
SHMP No There are no known major sources of radiation in San Bernardino or the immediate surrounding area that could pose a serious threat to the community.
Sea-level Rise FEMA guidance
SHMP
No The City is not located along the coast or near any large bodies of seawater. The HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern for the City.
Seiche FEMA guidance
SHMP
No There are no major bodies of water in San Bernardino that could be subjected to seiche.
Seismic Shaking FEMA guidance
SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes San Bernardino is in a seismically active area where shaking can be severe enough to damage property or
cause loss of life. For this reason, the HMPC determined it should be addressed in this plan.
Severe Wind FEMA guidance Yes Severe Weather includes discussions regarding extreme heat, severe wind, and drought, which are the most
common weather-related hazards in San Bernardino.
Severe Weather
and Storms
FEMA guidance
SHMP
SBC HMP
Yes Severe Weather includes discussions regarding extreme heat, severe wind, and drought, which are the most
common weather-related hazards in San Bernardino.
Storm Surge FEMA guidance No San Bernardino is not a coastal community. The HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern to the City.
Subsidence FEMA guidance No Subsidence is not a significant concern identified by the HMPC.
Terrorism SHMP Yes The HMPC was concerned about terrorism incidents threatening public safety, given past events within the city. A discussion of this is in the Human-Caused Hazards profile.
Thunderstorm SHMP No Thunderstorms that cause damage and endanger public safety are rare in the Southern California region. The
HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern.
Tornadoes FEMA guidance
SHMP
No No tornadoes are known to have occurred in San
Bernardino. The HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern.
Transportation
Accidents
SHMP No While transportation accidents can occur within the City, this hazard was not identified as a key hazard of HPMC
concern.
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29 After hazard evaluation and the organizational changes made by the HMPC , this Plan discusses seven broad hazard types with their respective sub-categories:
Hazard Type Sub-Categories
Earthquake/Geologic Hazards Seismic Shaking
Fault Rupture
Liquefaction
Earthquake-Induced Landslide
Flooding Includes Dam Inundation
Severe Weather Severe Winds
Extreme Heat
Drought
Wildfire
Hazardous Materials Release
Human-Caused Hazards Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incident
Cyber Threat
Civil Unrest
Climate Change Discussed in all Hazard Categories
Hazard Scoring and Prioritization
Once the hazards for San Bernardino have been identified, the hazards are then given a priority ranking.
In the Hazard Assessment Matrix below, the "Red" zone represents the highest priority hazards, the "Yellow" zone represents middle priority, and the "Green" zone represents the lowest priority hazards. As shown in Hazard Assessment Matrix, the hazards considered the greatest threat to the City of San Bernardino are flood, earthquake/geologic hazards, wildfires, and cyber threat. The following hazard profiles and risk assessment describes these hazards in -depth, reviews the exposure of assets to these hazards, and estimates losses or assesses risk for significant events associated with these hazards.
Tree Mortality SHMP No The HMPC noted that the city has a significant number of trees; however, the City currently manages these
resources effectively and did not feel it was necessary to profile them as a hazard of concern.
Tsunami FEMA guidance
SHMP
No San Bernardino is not a coastal community. The HMPC
did not identify this as a hazard of concern to the City.
Urban Fire SHMP
SBC HMP
No The HMPC did not identify urban fires as a risk to
property and life in San Bernardino.
Volcano SHMP No There are no volcanoes near San Bernardino to reasonably pose a threat. The HMPC did not identify this as a hazard of concern to the City.
Wildfire FEMA guidance
SHMP
Yes The HMPC identified wildfire as a major threat to the developed and undeveloped areas of the City and is a
topic included in the document.
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30 San Bernardino Hazard Assessment Matrix
In addition to the simple prioritization exercise, the HMPC followed FEMA guidance for hazard mitigation plans and prioritized each of the hazards identified. In the initial step, it assigned a score of 1 to 4 for each of the hazards for the following criteria:
• Probability: The likelihood that the hazard will occur in San Bernardino in the future. • Location: The size of the area that the hazard would affect. • Maximum probable extent: The severity of the direct damage of the hazard to San Bernardino. • Secondary impacts: The severity of indirect damage of the hazard to San Bernardino.
The HMPC assigned a weighting value to each criterion, giving a higher weight to the criteria deemed more important, and multiplied the score for each criterion by weighing the factor to determine the overall score for each criterion. These weighting values were recommended by FEMA:
• Probability: 2.0
• Location: 0.8
• Maximum probable extent: 0.7
• Secondary impacts: 0.5
Table 3-2 shows the Criterion Scoring used to assign a score for each criterion.
After calculating the total impact score for each hazard (sum of the location, maximum probable extent, and the secondary impact). FEMA guidance recommends multiplying the total impact score by the overall probability to determine the final score for each hazard. A final score between 0 and 12 is considered a low-threat hazard, 12.1 to 42 is a medium-threat hazard, and a score above 42 is considered a high-threat hazard. This final score determines the prioritization of the hazards.
In compliance with the Disaster Mitigation Act (and as further specified by Interim Final Rule 44 CFR Section 206.401(c)(2)(i)), this LHMP addresses, in substantial detail, the primary hazards facing the City.
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31 Lower priority hazards are addressed at a lesser level of detail due to their relatively reduced impacts, as identified in the hazard assessment discussion.
Table 3-2: San Bernardino Hazard Prioritization Worksheet
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32 Threat Assessment Process
The threat assessment process analyzes the harm San Bernardino may experience from a hazard event but does not consider its likelihood, thus giving equal consideration to hazards that are more likely (e.g., earthquakes, flood) and less probable hazards (e.g., dam failure).
The threat assessment examines three aspects of each hazard: the physical threat to facilities, the social threat to vulnerable populations, and the threat to any other assets that may be affected.
Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern
Critical facilities (CF) consist of properties and structures that play important roles in government operations and the services they provide to the community. Examples of CFs include local government offices and yards, community centers, public safety buildings like police and fire stations, schools, and other properties a city has deemed essential for its operations. Critical Facilities may also serve dual roles if a city designates them as public assembly points during an emergency. Critical Facilities are often owned by the City, but some may also be owned and operated privately, such as some utilities and telecommunication infrastructure. Facilities of concern (FOC) are similar to critical facilities; however, the City may not own them , or their purpose and function are not as important to the function of the City after a disaster. These facilities are identified to ensure the City understands their potential vulnerability to the hazards of concern.
The HMPC identified a total of 207 facilities [23 CFs and 184 FOC] in San Bernardino that fall into 4 categories based on their function or characteristics. Table 3-3 shows the number of CFs and FOC in each category, the total estimated replacement value for these facilities, and examples of the type of facility in each category. Appendix D has a complete list of the CFs and FOC used in this analysis. Figure 3-1 shows the locations of the mapped CFs and FOC in San Bernardino.
The potential loss values identified in subsequent tables are based on the City’s total insured value using the City’s Insured Asset Inventory. It is intended to provide an estimate of the replacement cost if the property/ structure is completely or severe ly damaged. The actual costs of repair could be smaller or larger than the provided estimate. Since the data comes from the City’s Insured Asset Inventory, any facilities not owned by the City will not have a replacement value listed. Where this occurs, “N /A” has been used within the table.
Based on the available data provided by the City, a minimum of $281,121,833 worth of City-owned assets were analyzed. The total potential loss value of all City-owned and non-City-owned assets is much higher but is unknown due to data limitations.
The greatest potential for loss among City-owned assets comes from the Other Facilities category, which includes but is not limited to libraries, cultural centers, and federal and county government operations centers located throughout the city. The next critical facility category with the greatest potential for loss would be City Facilities, which includes Police and Fire Department facilities and equipment, while Park Facilities and Recreation Centers are the third highest potential loss among critical facilities.
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33 To better understand the magnitude of impacts, this plan identifies representative percentages of potential impact based on the total valuation of City assets. For planning purposes, we identified different tiers of impact that could occur. It is reasonable to assume that impacts would not exceed 50% of the total asset value city-wide during a single event. The following are parameters to help understand how much a proposed investment/improvement compares to the existing assets within the City:
• 1% Impact - $2,811,218
• 5% Impact – $14,056,091
• 10% Impact – $28,112,183
• 20% Impact - $56,224,366
• 50% Impact - $140,560,916
The possibility that all facilities will be completely damaged simultaneously is extremely rare. Based on the hazard, most impacts are anticipated to be isolated to certain locations. This estimate does not include the value of the City's underground infrastructure and surface drainage facilities.
Table 3-3: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern in San Bernardino Category Number of
Facilities
Examples Potential
Loss
Critical Concern
City Facilities 21 5 City Hall, Fire, Police $78,060,013 Schools 0 75 --- Unknown
Park Facilities,
Recreation Centers
0 39 Parks, Recreation Centers $41,139,096
Other Facilities 2 65 Libraries, Cultural Centers, Federal and County Government Operations**
$161,922,724
Total 23 184 $281,121,833
* Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** No potential loss estimates are available for federal and county facilities within the city. *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
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34 Figure 3-1: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern
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35 Vulnerable Populations
Factors such as age, physical and/or mental condition, socioeconomic status, access to key services, and many other factors affect the ability of people to prepare for and protect themselves and their property from a hazard event. Even though some hazard events may impact all parts of San Bernardino with equal severity, different people may experience the impacts differently. Higher- income households, for instance, are likely more able to afford the cost of retrofitting their homes to resist flooding or, alternatively, move to a location that is less prone to flooding than a lower-income household. As a result, the higher-income household is less likely to experience significant damage during a flood event than the lower-income household, even if the same amount of rain falls on both.
A social threat analysis examines how hazard events are likely to impact different demographic populations in San Bernardino and where these different demographic populations live in the city. This includes assessing whether the people in an area of an elevated hazard risk are more likely than the average person to be considere d a threatened population. The social threat analysis uses the following criteria to assess the threat to vulnerable populations:
Disability status: Persons with disabilities may often have reduced mobility and experience difficulties living independently. As a result, they may have little or no ability to prepare for and mitigate hazard conditions without assistance from others. Income levels: Lower-income households are less likely to have the financial resources to implement mitigation activities on their residences. They may also struggle with having the necessary time to find and access educational resources discussing hazard mitigation strategies. Furthermore, lower-income households are less likely to be able to move to safer areas that are less at risk of being impacted by a hazard. The national poverty limit standard for the U.S. for a four-person family is approximately an income of $30,000 or less. San Bernardino County's FY 2022 Low-Income Limit for a four-person family is $70,400.
11 Seniors (individuals at least 65 years of age): Seniors are more likely to have reduced mobility, physical and/or mental disabilities, and lower-income levels, all of which may decrease their ability to prepare for and mitigate a hazard event.
Table 3-4 shows the amount of people in San Bernardino who meet at least one of the criteria for threatened, vulnerable populations. For more detailed demographic information, please refer to Chapter
2. The social threat analysis also shows the threat other populations may encounter. For example, people experiencing homelessness or without access to lifelines (vehicles or communication networks) may experience greater hardship in evacuating or recovering from a disaster. Since data for these groups are not readily available, there is no definitive way to determine the amount of these people in areas of elevated risk, so this assessment will discuss how these other threatened groups may be affected on a general level.
11 U.S. Department of HUD 2022 Adjusted Home Income Limits.
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36 Table 3-4: San Bernardino Threatened-Population Metrics Threatened Population Metric Community-Wide Data
Population 222,116
Households 66,156
Median household income $52,321
Renter Households 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability 9.1% Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 9.4%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2020 Decennial Census, 2021 ACS 1-Year Estimates
Data Limitations and Notes on Vulnerability Tables
Due to data limitations, the data comparing the hazard zone population with the citywide population comes from two separate sources. The citywide data comes from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, and the hazard zone population data comes from ESRI’s Business Analyst reports. As a result, there may be minor discrepancies in comparing the two data sets. T he data that should be considered correct for this plan is the ACS data reported in Chapter 2.
Other Assets
In addition to the City’s designated inventory of CFs/FOC and vulnerable populations, hazard events could threaten other important assets to San Bernardino. These assets may include services, artistic or cultural landmarks, or local economic activities. The threat assessment describes the potential harm to these other assets based on available information.
Disaster Declaration Connections
Since the previous update the following major disasters, emergency declarations, and fire management events have been issued by the FEMA. Past events identified in this plan have been identified in connection with these events in the “Past Events” sections within each Hazard Profile. Table 3-5 identifies recent disaster declarations in San Bernardino County.
Table 3-5: Disaster Declaration - San Bernardino County (2019-2023) Year
Declaration
Number Declaration Title
Incident
Type
Affected
San
Bernardino
Activated EOC
/ Requested
PA
2023 DR-4699-CA
SEVERE WINTER STORMS,
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS,
FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND
MUDSLIDES Severe Storm Yes EOC Activated
2023 EM-3591-CA
SEVERE WINTER STORMS,
FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES Flood Yes EOC Activated
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37 2023 EM-3592-CA
SEVERE WINTER STORMS,
FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, AND
MUDSLIDES Flood Yes EOC Activated
2021 DR-4569-CA WILDFIRES Fire No N/A
2021 FM-5381-CA BLUE RIDGE FIRE Fire No N/A
2020 DR-4482-CA COVID-19 PANDEMIC Biological Yes No
2020 EM-3428-CA COVID-19 Biological Yes No
2020 FM-5350-CA EL DORADO FIRE Fire No N/A
2020 FM-5325-CA APPLE FIRE Fire No N/A
2020 FM-5301-CA HILLSIDE FIRE Fire Yes EOC Activated
2019 EM-3415-CA EARTHQUAKES Earthquake No N/A
Hazard Profiles
Earthquake / Geologic Hazards
Earthquake and geologic hazards of concern in San Bernardino include seismic shaking , fault rupture, liquefaction, and earthquake-induced landslides.
DESCRIPTION
An earthquake is a sudden slip on an active fault , and the resulting shaking and radiated seismic energy are caused by the slip (USGS, 2009). The majority of major active faults in the San Bernardino area are strike-slip faults. For this type of fault, during an earthquake event, one side of a fault line slides past the other. The rupture from this type of fault extends almost vertically into the ground.
Earthquakes are a significant concern to the City of San Bernardino . The area around San Bernardino is seismically active since it is situated on the boundary between two tectonic plates. Earthquakes can cause serious structural damage to buildings, overlying aqueducts, transportation facilities, and utilities and can lead to loss of life. In addition, earthquakes can cause collateral emergencies , including dam and levee failures, fires, and landslides.
SEISMIC SHAKING
Seismic shaking is the shaking felt on the surface caused by an earthquake. In most cases, earthquakes are not powerful enough to feel the shaking . However, powerful earthquakes can generate significant shaking, causing widespread destruction and property damage. As previously discussed, earthquakes are considered a major threat to the City of San Bernardino due to the proximity of several regional fault zones. Major fault zones in the region include the San Andreas Fault , which runs through the northeast portion of the city; the San Jacinto Fault, which runs through the eastern portion of the city; the Elsinore Fault, located approximately 25 miles south west of the city ; and the Cucamonga Fault , located approximately 10 miles northwest of the city. All of these faults are capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 or greater. A significant earthquake along one of the major faults could cause substantial casualties, extensive damage, and other threats to life and property. The shaking of the ground can also damage or destroy underground utilities or pipelines, potentially leading to a loss of power, conceivable fires should any natural gas pipelines be damaged, and possible release of hazardous materials and flooding if water lines are breached. These regional fault zones are displayed in Figure 3-2.
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38 FAULT RUPTURE
The shifting and movement of the Earth’s tectonic plates are responsible for seismic events. These tectonic plates can pull away from, move toward, or pass by each other. As they do, these plates sometimes lock together. This creates tension, and eventuall y, the built -up tension is released like a springboard, dissipating into the Earth’s crust.
The location where two tectonic plates join is called a plate boundary, which is considered a fault line.
Fault lines are sometimes visible on the Earth’s crust as sudden rifts or anomalies in the continuity of the landscape. California's major north-south fault line is the San Andreas Fault—where the North American and Pacific Plates meet. However, constant friction between the two plates over the millennia has caused the areas where the two plates intersect to become fragmented, creating new, smaller faults.
The area near a fault line is at risk of damage due to the potential for a fault rupture—the deformation or displacement of land on either side of the fault, which may move a few inches to several feet in opposite directions. Any buildings or infrastructur e situated around, on top of, or across a fault line could be severely damaged or destroyed. The direction of the fault rupture depends upon the fault type: dip -slip faults produce vertical shearing, strike -slip faults produce horizontal shearing, and oblique -slip faults produce both vertical and horizontal shearing. The fourth kind of fault , a “blind” thrust fault, produces virtually no visible land displacement.
Some faults have emerged recently in geologic history. Quaternary faults are faults that have developed any time between the Holocene Era and the present (within the last 1.8 million years). These faults are especially concerning since they are the most likely to be active and cause future earthquakes.
The Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act enables the California State Geologist to designate zones surrounding active faults as Alquist-Priolo Special Study Zones. These zones require additional study and analysis to determine the location of the fau lt and the limits of the area prohibited from surface construction on top of the known location of an active fault.
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39 LIQUEFACTION
Figure 3-2: Regional Faults and Fault Zones
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40 Liquefaction occurs when seismic energy shakes an area with low-density, fine-grain soil, like sand or silt, which is also saturated with water. When the shaking motion reaches these areas, it can cause these loosely packed soils to suddenly compact, making the saturated sediment behave more like a liquid than solid ground. During liquefaction events, the liquified soil can lose most of its stability, which can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure built upon it. In severe cases, some buildings may completely collapse. Pipelines or other utility lines running through a liquefaction zone can be breached during an event, potentially leading to flooding or releasing hazardous materials.
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Ground failure resulting from an earthquake can occur in the form of an Earthquake -Induced Landslide.
These failures typically happen in areas with steep slopes or unstable soil conditions. Landslides can impact structures, sever utility lines, block roadways, and impact people and properties in the failure path.
LOCATION AND EXTENT
SEISMIC SHAKING
The intensity of seismic shaking occurs in relation to the amount of energy discharged by the seismic event, which is dictated by the length and depth of the fault. The longer and nearer to the surface the fault rupture is , the greater the seismic shaking. In most cases, areas nearest to the fault rupture experience the greatest seismic shaking, while areas more distant experience less shaking. Seismic shaking can damage or destroy structures leading to partial or total collapse. The shaking of the ground c an also damage or destroy underground utilities or pipelines, potentially leading to the release of hazardous materials and flooding if water lines are breached.
Southern California is a highly seismic area because of the major faults that run through the region and the frequency of seismic events in the region. The intensity of seismic shaking is usually measured with the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale based on the amount of observed damage. Seismic shaking may also be measured using the more widely known moment magnitude scale (MMS, denoted as M w or
sometimes M), which measures the amount of energy the earthquake releases. The MMS begins at 1.0 and increases as more energy is released. This scale is based on a logarithmic scale, meaning that the difference in energy between two measurements is substantially greater than the difference between the measurements themselves. For example, a M
w 6.5 earthquake releases approximately 1.4 times as much energy as a Mw 6.4 earthquake and 1,000 times as much energy as a Mw 4.5 earthquake. The MMS replaces the Richter scale, which is similar but less reliable when measuring large earthquakes. Since the degree of shaking and consequential damage generally decreases as the seismic energy travels farther away from the event’s point of origin, different sections of a city or region can report different MMI measurements in different locations. Given San Bernardino’s size, it is likely that different sections of the city would report different MMI measurements. The MMI scale depicted in Table 3-6 uses Roman numerals on a 12-point scale to measure and describe the effects of the shaking event. Figure 3-3 shows seismic shaking potential within the city.
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41 Figure 3-3: Seismic Shaking Potential
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42 Table 3-6: Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale12
Intensity Description Description
I Instrumental Felt only by very few people under especially favorable conditions.
II Feeble Felt only by a few people at rest, especially on the upper floors of buildings.
III Slight Noticeable by people indoors, especially on upper floors, but not always recognized as an earthquake.
IV Moderate Felt by many indoors and by some outdoors. Sleeping people may be awakened.
Dishes, windows, and doors are disturbed.
V Slightly Strong Felt by nearly everyone, and many sleeping people are awakened. Some dishes and windows broken, and unstable objects overturned.
VI Strong Felt by everyone. Some heavy furniture is moved, and there is slight damage.
VII Very Strong Negligible damage in well -built buildings, slight to moderate damage in ordinary buildings, and considerable damage in poorly built buildings.
VIII Destructive Slight damage in well-built buildings, considerable damage and partial collapse in ordinary buildings, and great damage in poorly built buildings.
IX Ruinous Considerable damage to specially designed structures. Great damage and partial collapse in substantial buildings, and buildings are shifted off foundations.
X Disastrous Most foundations and buildings with masonry or frames and some well-built wood structures are destroyed. Rail lines are bent.
XI Very
Disastrous
Most or all masonry structures are destroyed, along with bridges. Rail lines are greatly bent.
XII Catastrophic Damage is total. The lines of sight are distorted, and objects are thrown into the air.
FAULT RUPTURE
The Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zoning Act enables the California State Geologist to designate zones surrounding active faults as Alquist -Priolo Special Study Zones (AP Zones), which is a special regulatory zone that requires additional study to determine the location of an active fault and define the limits where construction should be prohibited to reduce the placement of structures on top of an active fault.
Two major active faults are identified within San Bernardino. The first is the San Andreas Fault, a northwestward trending strike- slip fault that runs along the southern base of the San Bernardino Mountains, crosses through the Cajon Pass, and continues no rthwest along the San Gabriel Mountains.
The San Andreas Fault runs from Southern California to Northern California. The northern segment of this fault was responsible for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake that measured nearly 8.0 on the Richter scale and killed an estimated 3,000 people.13 The segment of this fault that runs through the city, located within a special study zone, is believed to generate events ranging from M6.7-8.0 and will impact the entire City and its SOI if a major earthquake occurs. The second fault is the San Jacinto Fault, a southeastward trending strike-slip fault. The San Jacinto Fault Zone is a major component of the San Andreas Fault System and is Southern California's most seismically active fault . This fault is found in the southwestern portion
12 United States Geological Survey. 2023. The Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/modified- mercalli-intensity-scale
13 “The Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake.” U.S. Geological Survey. Accessed April 27, 2023. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/events/1906calif/18april/.
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43 of the City. Its slip rate is typically between 7 and 17 mm/yr., with 100 -300 years between ruptures. The most recent rupture on the San Jacinto Fault was within the last few centuries.14 Figure 3-2 identifies the CGS-designated AP Zones for these two faults.
LIQUEFACTION
Soil must be saturated with water for liquefaction to
occur. Areas with high water tables generally have
saturated soil since the distance between the
shallowest aquifer and the surface is minimal. Areas
with alluvial soils—soft sands, silts, and clays—are also susceptible to liquefaction as these soils are fine grain and generally do not bond together well. Liquefaction
events do not have a scale of measurement; however,
other factors can be used to assess the extent of
damage associated with a liquefaction event, such as:
• Soil type
• Strength of shaking near liquefaction
• Size of the affected area
• Destruction due to liquefaction
According to the CGS, the city's downtown area is
located within the high liquefaction susceptibility zone, and almost the entire southern portion of the city is susceptible to liquefaction (Figure 3-4).
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Areas in the City are also at risk for earthquake -induced landslides. Figure 3 -5 depicts these risk areas, predominantly located in the City's northern portions against the mountain and foothills , and Shandin Hills, located near I-215 and Little Mountain Drive. While these areas are potentially prone to earthquake- induced landslides, other areas of the City may be prone to landslides resulting from erosion from precipitation events. Areas of high susceptibility are isolated to the northern portions of the City and SOI.
The severity of a landslide is often measured by the amount of material that slid (e.g., in cubic feet), but there is no standardized scale for measuring individual landslides.
14 “Quaternary Fault and Fold Database of the United States.” U.S. Geological Survey. Accessed April 27, 2023. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/cfusion/qfault/show_report_AB_archive.cfm?fault_id=125§ion_id=b.
Liquefaction caused by the 1964 Niigita, Japan earthquake caused these apartment blocks to experience severe
leaning. Image from the University of Washington.
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44 `
Figure 3-4: Liquefaction Zones within San Bernardino
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45 Figure 3-5: Landslide Susceptibility Zones within San Bernardino
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46 PAST EVENTS
SEISMIC SHAKING
While no significant earthquake has originated within San Bernardino within the last 100 years, the city has felt the shaking of regional earthquakes. The most recent major seismic shaking event near San Bernardino was the Ridgecrest Sequence of Earthquakes on July 4, 2019. The event was a sequence of multiple earthquakes registered as an M
w 6.4 followed by an Mw 7.1. 15 The event caused over 25 injuries, resulted in one death, and caused over $5 billion in damage. 16 The next most recent event occurred on January 17, 1994, in Northridge, registering as an Mw 6.7 17 , causing 57 deaths, more than 8,700 injuries, and approximately $20 billion in damage costs, plus an additional economic loss of $40+ billion.
On June 6, 1992, there were multiple large events in Big Bear and Landers, California, with a rating of Mw
6.5 and M w 7.3, respectively. These events resulted in 3 deaths, nearly 500 injuries, and approximately $1.52 billion in damages. 18
Many major faults are located throughout Southern California, including some well- known ones like the San Andreas and San Jacinto Fault Zones. Proximity to various active faults ensures that seismic hazards will continue to be a major concern for the c ity. Table 3-7 identifies the major earthquakes that have occurred within 100 miles of the City. While populations may have felt the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes within the c ity, these events were located over 100 miles away and thus were not added to Table 3-7.
Table 3-8 identifies earthquakes, Mw 4.0+, which have occurred in San Bernardino County. The LHMP Planning Team noted the following regional and local events for seismic activity in the City of San Bernardino. Although no significa nt damage within the city has resulted from earthquakes, it is only a matter of time before a sizeable damaging earthquake will strike the area.
Table 3-7: Significant Earthquakes (5.0+Mw) Within 100 Miles of San Bernardino Event Name Magnitude
9/12/1970 Mw 5.2 - Lytle Creek
2/28/1990 Mw 5.4 - Upland
4/22/1992 Mw 6.1 – Joshua Tree
6/28/1992 Mw 7.3 - Big Bear/Landers
1/17/1994 Mw 6.7 – Reseda
10/16/1999 Mw 7.1 - Hector Mine
7/29/2008 Mw 5.4 - Chino Hills
15 California Earthquake Authority. 2023. List of Notable and Major California Earthquakes. https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/California- Earthquake-Risk/California-Earthquake-History-Timeline
16 National Centers for Environmental Information. 2023. Global Significant Earthquake Database, 2120 B.C. to present. https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/earthqk.shtml
17 California Department of Conservation. N.d. Northridge Earthquake, January 17, 1994. https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/earthquakes/northridge 18 National Centers for Environmental Information. 2023. Global Significant Earthquake Database, 2120 B.C. to present. https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/earthqk.shtml
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47 Table 3-8: Earthquakes (Greater then 4.0+Mw) In San Bernardino County (Up to 2022)
Date Name Magnitude
9/14/2011 Calimesa Mw 4.1
1/15/2014 Fontana Mw 4.4
7/5/2014 Running Springs Mw 4.6
3/29/2014 Brea Mw 5.1
7/25/2015 Fontana Mw 4.2
9/16/2015 Big Bear Lake Mw 4.0
12/30/2015 Muscoy Mw 4.4
1/6/2016 Banning Mw 4.4
It should be noted that hundreds of smaller (<Mw 4.0) earthquakes within San Bernardino County were not listed.
FAULT RUPTURE
Seismic events involving fault rupture within the City have not occurred in the recent past. Of the two major faults transecting the City, the San Jacinto Fault has a historic rupture interval of approximately 100-300 years.
L
IQUEFACTION
There have been no instances of liquefaction within the City. However, an event could occur if soil conditions, shallow groundwater levels, and a strong seismic event coincide.
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDES
Prior landslide (erosion) events have occurred within the City. However, they have typically been associated with weather-related precipitation events.
R
ISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
SEISMIC SHAKING
San Bernardino is in a seismically active area with many faults in the surrounding area and region. There will be an ever-present danger posed by any seismic shaking, which could potentially cause damage to buildings and/or infrastructure. It is almost inevitable that an earthquake will occur along one of the adjacent or regional fault lines and cause a major seismic event. The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) was released in 2015 and is the most recent assessment of the probability of a major earthquake on various faults between 2015 to 2044. Table 3-9 shows the results for nearby and regional fault lines for San Bernardino.
In addition to UCERF3 forecasts, which project the odds of a major earthquake on local and regional faults, the U.S. Geological Survey forecasts the severity of seismic shaking in different locations for various plausible earthquake scenarios. Table 3-10 shows some of these scenarios' anticipated shaking in San Bernardino.
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48 The U.S. Geological Survey scenarios show that the largest magnitude events are anticipated to come from the San Jacinto and San Andreas faults . The overall magnitude of potential earthquake scenarios occurring along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults is higher than some of the other faults, and their proximity to San Bernardino means that the city would be subjected to high-intensity shaking from these earthquakes. As noted in Table 3-9, the likelihood of a powerful earthquake occurring along these faults within the next 25 years is low.
Table 3-9: Earthquake Probabilities for Key Faults near San Bernardino (2015-2044) Fault Distance (Miles)* Estimated Probabilities
6.7+ M* 7.0+ M* 7.5+ M* 8.0 M*
San Jacinto
(San
Bernardino)
2.36 4.24% 4.22% 4.18% 2.31%
San Jacinto
(Lytle Creek)
2.99 1.06% 1.06% 1.05% 0.49%
San Andreas 4.56 17.50% 14.75% 11.55% 3.97%
Fontana 8.50 0.23% Negligible Negligible Negligible
Cucamonga 10.62 1.49% 1.25% 0.74% 0.03%
Cleghorn 11.44 .60% .51% .31% .01%
San Gorgonio
Pass
15.26 1.50% 1.31% 1.30% .05%
San Gabriel 22.68 0.46% 0.42% 0.18% <0.01%
San Jose 23.76 .30% .20% .03% Negligible
Chino Alt 1 24.80 1.42% 0.15% 0.08% Negligible
Elsinore
(Glen Ivy)
25.42 3.17% 1.71% .91% <0.01%
Elsinore
(Temecula)
35.03 2.16% 1.75% 0.94% <0.01%
* Distance between San Bernardino City Hall and the nearest point of the fault. All distances are approximate. † Southern California segments only.
Note: UCERF3 results consist of two individual models (3.1 and 3.2), each of which provides rupture probabilities for each se gment of the fault. This table shows the maximum probability for a section of the fault in either model.
Source: Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. 2015. The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) . http://wgcep.org/UCERF3
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49 Table 3-10: Selected Shaking Scenarios for San Bernardino Fault Magnitude Distance to Epicenter
(Miles)*
MMI Range in San Bernardino
San Andreas 7.68 4.56 8.0 – 9.0
San Jacinto
(San Bernardino)
6.96 4.00 8.0 – 9.0
San Jacinto
(Lytle Creek)
6.72 8.00 8.0 – 9.0
Cucamonga 6.88 8.00 7.0 - 8.0
Fontana 6.75 8.00 7.0 - 8.0
Note: UCERF3 results consist of two individual models (3.1 and 3.2), each of which provides rupture probabilities for each segment of the fault. This table shows the maximum probability for a section of the fault in either model.
Source: USGS Earthquake Scenarios Catalog
FAULT RUPTURE
Given the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults within the City, it is likely that fault rupture could occur in the future. The San Andreas Fault has a decreasing probability range from 1 7.50% to 3. 97% for events increasing in magnitude from 6.7 to 8.0.
LIQUEFACTION
Since liquefaction events are triggered by seismic shaking, the probability of a liquefaction event occurring depends on an earthquake's likelihood. An earthquake could occur along the local faults running through San Bernardino County, which may lead to a liquefaction event. Refer to Table 3-9 for the probability of a major earthquake occurring in faults near San Bernardino. Like the San Andreas or San Jacinto, regional faults are more likely to experience a significant earthquake within the next quarter- century. Therefore, it is only possible to say that liquefaction could occur in the City, but it is impossible to say with certainty when and where it may occur.
E
ARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Landslides pose a threat to some city areas, especially in the foothills. Topography and terrain, soil type, precipitation, and seismic activity contribute to landslides' potential to occur. Destabilization of slopes and hills due to intense rainstorms also has the potential to cause future landslides. Overall, the probability of future occurrence within San Bernardino is considered occasional (1 -10% chance per year).19
CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
SEISMIC SHAKING
There is no direct link between climate change and seismic activity that could impact San Bernardino ; therefore, climate change is not expected to cause any changes to the frequency or intensity of seismic shaking. Some research indicates that climate change could result in “isostatic rebounds,” or a sudden
19 Masih, A. 2018. “An Enhanced Seismic Activity Observed Due to Climate Change: Preliminary Results from Alaska.” IOP Conference Series:
Earth and Environmental Science. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/167/1/012018/pdf
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50 upward movement of the crust because of reduced downward weight caused by glacier s.. 20 As glaciers
are known to melt when overall global temperatures increase, climate change could indirectly lead to increased seismicity in San Bernardino and the Southern California region.
F
AULT RUPTURE
Generally, there is no known direct connection between fault rupturing and climate change. Some evidence suggests that greater oceanic pressure on tectonic plates due to melting land ice could influence seismic events' behavior. 21 Still, little indicates that this would play a major factor in any seismic event, including fault rupture.
LIQUEFACTION
Climate change is anticipated to change the usual precipitation patterns in Southern California. Periods of both rain and drought are anticipated to become more intense and frequent. Therefore, more precipitation will likely occur during rainy periods, and drought is expected to last even longer. As a result, the groundwater aquifer beneath San Bernardino and San Bernardino County could rise during intense precipitation periods. Alternatively, a longer-lasting drought may lead to more groundwater withdrawal and could lower groundwater elevations. Consequently, depending on the circumstances, climate change could increase or decrease the future risk of liquefaction in San Bernardino.
E
ARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Due to the variety of factors that lead to landslides, climate change could indirectly affect landslides' conditions. More frequent and more intense rains may cause more moisture-induced landslides. Warmer temperatures and more frequent drought conditions may lead to more fires, destabilizing soils and making future landslide events more likely.
22 PHYSICAL THREAT
SEISMIC SHAKING
Many physical assets in the city are estimated to experience the same seismic shaking intensity, ranging from 85 to 95% g (shaking intensity in relation to the earth’s gravity). Therefore, all facilities could be damaged during a significant seismic event, which would be extremely costly for the City. If all facilities were damaged at the same time during a seismic shaking event, it can be assumed that the City would incur a percentage of the maximum potential loss of its physical assets. Assuming 20% of the City’s assets are impacted, this potential loss could amount to over $56 million. Underground physical assets, like pipelines or utilities, could be damaged if seismic shaking were strong enough to cause a rupture. In such a scenario, natural gas and wat er delivery service to San Bernardino homes and businesses would be incapacitated until repairs are completed. Table 3-11 displays these potential scenarios and losses that could be incurred should shaking reach the described threshold. Figure 3-3 displays the CFs and FOCs within the city’s seismic shaking potential hazard zones.
20 Ibid., 47.
21 Ibid., 47.
22 Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. n.d. Wildfires and Climate Change. https://www.c2es.org/content/wildfires -and-climate- change/#:~:text=Wildfire%20risk%20depends%20on%20a,shrubs%2C%20and%20other%20potential%20fuel.&text=Research%20shows%20t hat%20changes%20in,these%20increases%20in%20wildfire%20risk.
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51 Table 3-11: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Seismic Shake 0.85 to 0.95G)
Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 21 5 $78,060,013
Schools 0 75 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 39 $41,139,096
Other Facilities 2 65 $161,922,724
Total 23 184 $281,121,833
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
FAULT RUPTURE
The City has numerous faults that have been mapped and identified within the City. Table 3-12 identifies the CFs and FOC located within 500 feet of these mapped fault segments. Based on this table, potential losses associated with fault rupture could affect 7 FOC; the potential monetary loss could not be assessed as replacement values for the affected facilities w ere unavailable. Figure 3-2 displays the CFs and FOC within the city’s fault rupture hazard zones.
Table 3-12: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Fault Rupture) Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 0 1 -
Schools 0 1 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 4 -
Other Facilities 0 1 -
Total 0 7 -
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
LIQUEFACTION
Due to the City’s location near active faults capable of generating large earthquakes, the potential for CFs and FOC to be affected by liquefaction is a concern. Table 3-13 identifies the CFs and FOC in these areas, accounting for over $245 million in potential losses affecting 15 CFs and 105 FOC. Figure 3-4 shows the CF and FOC within the designated liquefaction zone.
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52 Table 3-13: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Liquefaction) Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 13 3 $78,060,013
Schools 0 34 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 23 $28,488,172
Other Facilities 2 45 $138,747,391
Total 15 105 $245,295,576
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Landslides pose a threat to several City facilities. Table 3-14 identifies the facilities in the mapped landslide hazard zone. Many of these areas are parks in the city's northern portion, characterized by steep slopes.
In total, landslides could cause over $3 million in losses based on the 1 CF and 3 FOC located in this zone.
Figure 3-5 shows CF and FOC within the earthquake-induced landslide zones.
Table 3-14: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Earthquake-Induced Landslide) Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 1 0 ?
Schools 0 0 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 1 $3,125,400
Other Facilities 0 2 ?
Total 1 3 $3,125,400
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
SOCIAL THREAT
The risk of a seismic event is a danger to all groups in San Bernardino though some are more threatened than others.
SEISMIC SHAKING
Seniors, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities are more threatened by seismic shaking since they may have limited mobility and may be unable to reach shelter in time. Even if these groups reach shelter
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53 in time, they may be trapped if furniture or building components have fallen around them. Renters and low-income people are also more threatened by seismic shaking since these groups may live in homes that are not properly retrofitted to survive the stresses of a seismic event. These groups may be un able to absorb the costs associated with repairing their homes or looking for new housing should their existing one be too damaged for occupancy. Table 3-15 displays the threatened populations in San Bernardino associated with the seismic shaking scenarios.
FAULT RUPTURE
Table 3-16 identifies the threatened populations within 500 feet of faults located within the City. These areas include over 14,000 residents with a median household income of almost $20,000 higher than the City average. These areas mirror the City in the percentage of persons living with a disability , the percentage of households living under the poverty limit, and households with one member aged 65+.
LIQUEFACTION
Approximately 30% of the City’s population is located within a designated liquefaction zone. Much of the liquefaction zone is located in the downtown and older part of the city. L ower-income residents and Table 3-15: Seismic Shaking Threatened Populations
Threatened Population Metric Seismic Shake
Threshold
0.85 to 0.95g
City of San
Bernardino
Population 221,116 221,116
Households 66,156 66,156
Median household income $52,321 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 15.2% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability 9.1% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 21.0% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 9.4% 9.4% Table 3-16: Fault Rupture Threatened Populations
Threatened Population Metric Fault
Rupture
City of San
Bernardino
Population 14,853 221,116
Households 4,838 66,156
Median household income $71,665 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 2,477 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability
9.1% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 21.0% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 9.4% 9.4%
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54 residents located in older construction areas may be impacted more due to the lack of financial resources needed to make repairs and/or the cost associated with retrofitting older buildings.
Table 3-17 compares the populations within the liquefaction hazard zones with citywide populations.
Households located in these areas have a median household income of approximately $5,000 lower than the Citywide median. Persons living with a disability is lower than the City average, and households with a member aged 65+ is lower than the City average.
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
As shown in Table 3-18, 33,278 people and 10,631 households live within the landslide hazard zone, which is approximately 15% of the city’s population. The median household income for this population is higher than the city overall, and the percentage of households living under the poverty limit for this population is lower. Households with at least one person living with a disability and the percentage of households with one member aged 65+ are lower than the City overall. Additionally, private schools, preschools, residential care, and skilled nursing facilities located in this area are at risk of being impacted.
Table 3-17: Liquefaction Threatened Populations
Threatened Population Metric Liquefaction City of San
Bernardino
Population 67,493 221,116
Households 19,437 66,156
Median household income $46,861 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 14.7% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability
2.62% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 20.9% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 2.71% 9.4% Table 3-18: Earthquake-Induced Landslide Threatened Populations Threatened Population Metric Landslide City of San
Bernardino
Population 33,278 221,116
Households 10,631 66,156
Median household income $63,376 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 16.3% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability
2.91% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 6.67% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 3.00% 9.4%
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55 OTHER THREATS
SEISMIC SHAKING
As early earthquake warning systems become operational soon, it can be expected that utilities will take advantage of these advanced warnings to shut off gas, water, and power transmission to control any potential leaks following the seismic shaking. Authorities may have enough time to halt the use of infrastructure or move workers to safe locations away from hazardous conditions. Workers could cease their activity and take shelter until they can be safely evacuated. Therefore, all services could be non- operational during the shaking event and remain inactive until authorities are confident it is safe to reactivate utilities and return employees to their workplaces. The length of this time would vary depending on the event's magnitude. A significant earthquake would likely put utilities out of commission and halt any employment activity in the city for a few hours or several days. The city and the region would experience reduced economic activity d uring the outage period , which would not be felt for weeks, months, or years later . Structures such as telephone poles or power transmission towers felled by the shaking could block roadways and prevent emergency response teams from reaching victims or evacuees who need assistance.
F
AULT RUPTURE
Seismic events that cause surface fault rupture tend to damage roads and structures in impact areas. The length of rupture is typically a component of the magnitude of the seismic event. The stronger the event, the greater distance that rupture can occur. Strong events can create a larger problem with other identified hazards, such as dam inundations and flooding.
L
IQUEFACTION
Services and mobility may be disrupted during and following a liquefaction event. Due to the liquefying soils, sidewalks, roadways, and pipelines may become fractured and disjointed. Roads and sidewalks may be usable in some form, but a severe liquefaction event may render them impassible until they are repaired. Broken gas and water pipelines would result in utility outages, with services delayed until this infrastructure is repaired/replaced. Damage to power lines is unlikely since they are not rigid stru ctures and can move if any transmission towers experience slight leaning. Homes and mid -rise office buildings may be damaged if the soils beneath lose strength rendering these locations unsafe for occupancy.
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
As earthquake-induced landslides typically occur in isolated areas of the city, effects on these areas may include damage to roadways, infrastructure (power poles and underground pipelines), and storm management infrastructure. This damage could result in a loss of utility services or an inability to access areas of the city.
CHANGES IN POPULATION AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT
SEISMIC SHAKING
Based on the current San Bernardino Housing Element, it is anticipated that population patterns will increase approximately 1.3% by 2030. This could indicate that land use and development policies would remain consistent with the most current regulations. However, if a strong seismic event were to impact the city, there is the potential that older structures of the city may be impacted more severely than newer structures and developments in the city.
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56 FAULT RUPTURE
Based on the current San Bernardino Housing Element, it is anticipated that population patterns will increase approximately 1.3% by 2030. This could indicate that land use and development policies would remain consistent with the most current regulations. Given the presence of multiple faults within the City, an increase in population and an increase in residential development will most likely increase the potential impacts from fault rupture in the City and to its residents, especially in the areas located near the Alquist- Priolo Special Study zones. New development and land use designations may be limited in these areas out of precaution, or subject to policies developed in City documents such as the LHMP, Land Use, Housing, and Safety Elements . The City’s development review process will identify steps to mitigate or prevent future liquefaction events.
LIQUEFACTION
Liquefaction is being monitored throughout hazard prone areas in the city, the impacts can cause damage to structures located within these zones. However, these zones are generally located in certain areas of the city, meaning that the damage potential is limited to these areas. Despite this potential, liquefaction is unlikely to cause significant changes in population patterns. However, land use designations and new development may be limited in these areas out of precaution, or subject to policies develop ed in City documents such as the LHMP, Land Use, Housing, and Safety Elements. The City’s development review process will identify steps to mitigate or prevent future liquefaction events.
EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED LANDSLIDE
Based on the current San Bernardino Housing Element, it is anticipated that population patterns will increase approximately 1.3% by 2030 . This increase is not expected to have a significant impact on San Bernardino’s vulnerability to landslides.
Land sliding is being monitored throughout the hazard prone areas in the city, the impacts can cause damage to structures located within these zones. However, these zones are generally located in certain areas of the city, meaning that the damage potential is limited to these areas. Despite this potential, landslides are unlikely to cause significant changes in population patterns. However, land use designations and new development may be limited in these areas out of precaution, or subject to any policies developed in City documents such as the LHMP, Land Use, Housing, and Safety Elements. The City ’s development review process will identify steps to mitigate or prevent future landslide events.
Flood (includes Dam Inundation)
DESCRIPTION
FLOODING
Floods are a common hazard in many parts of California, including San Bernardino . Ultimately, a flood occurs when there is too much water on the ground to be held within local water bodies, causing water to accumulate in naturally dry areas. They are often caused by heavy rainfall, though floods can also occur after a long period of moderate rainfall or if unusually warm weather causes mountain snow to melt faster than expected. Floods that develop quickly, known as flash floods, are especially dangerous because there may be little warning that one is occurring, but floods can also build over a more extended period.
A flood, as defined by FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) , is: “A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of two or more acres of normally dry land area or of two or more properties (at least one of which is the policyholder’s property) from:
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57 Overflow of inland or tidal waters, or
Unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source, or Mudflow, or
Collapse or subsidence of land along the shore of a lake or a similar body of water due to erosion or undermining caused by waves or currents of water exceeding anticipated cyclical levels.”
Floods can be slow or fast rising but generally develop over a period of hours or days. Mitigation includes any activities that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an emergency happening, or lessen the damaging effects of unavoidable emergencies. Investing in mitigation measures now, such as engaging in floodplain management activities, constructing barriers such as levees, and purchasing flood insurance , will help reduce the amount of structural damage and financial loss from other types of property damage should a flood or flash flood occur.
Floods are dangerous for several reasons. The floodwaters can be deep enough for people to drown and moving fast enough to sweep people away. The moving water can damage buildings with its force (in extreme cases, it may move entire structures) or carry large debris that damages objects with which it collides. When water gets into buildings, it can cause extensive damage to personal property, ruining building materials, furniture, electronics, and numerous other items. S tanding and moving water can be barriers to movement, isolating people and hindering evacuation, rescue, or relief efforts.
D
AM INUNDATION
Dam failure can result from several causes, such as earthquakes, rapidly rising floodwaters, and structural design flaws. These events can occur instantaneously or very gradually, depending on the source of the failure. Inundation associated with these events can cause loss of life, damage to property, other hazard- related events, and the displacement of persons residing in the inundation path. According to the California Division of Safety of Dams (DSOD), a dam falls under their jurisdiction if its height is greater than 6 feet and impounds more than 50 acre-feet of water or if its height is greater than 25 feet and impounds 15 acre-feet of water.
23 Based on these criteria, 1,537 dams fall under DSOD jurisdiction, 8 of which are located within the City of San Bernardino.
LOCATION AND EXTENT
FLOODING
Flood events are measured by their likelihood of occurrence. For instance, a 100-year flood is a flood that has a 1 in 100 (1.0 percent) chance of occurring in any given year. A 500-year flood is a flood that has a 1 in 500 (0.2 percent) chance of occurring in any given year. The 100-year flood has been designated as the benchmark for major flood events. Thus 100-year floods are referred to as “base floods.” Floodplains are areas that are prone to flooding and often experience frequent flooding. While it is possible for areas outside of these designated floodplains to experience flooding, the most likely locations to experience future flooding are low- lying areas near bodies of water. FEMA is the governmental body responsible for designating which areas of the United States can be classified as floodplains.
23 California Department of Water Resources. Jurisdictional Sized Dams. https://water.ca.gov/Programs/All- Programs/Division-of-Safety-of- Dams/Jurisdictional-Sized-Dams
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58 The three most common designations are:
Special Flood Hazard Area: The area within a 100-year floodplain. Moderate Flood Hazard Area: The area outside the 100-year floodplain but within the 500-year floodplain.
Minimum Flood Hazard Area: The area outside of the 500-year floodplain.
FEMA has multiple floodplain categories for each unique environment within these three designations .
Table 3 -19 shows these detailed floodplain categories. FEMA classifies San Bernardino under four floodplain categories: A, AE, AO, D, and X; the location of these floodplains can be seen on the FEMA Flood Hazard Zone Map depicted in Figure 3-6.
Flooding hazards can potentially impact a significant amount of the community; however, less than 10% of this area is subject to a 100-year event. Development within flood hazard areas is expected to comply with flood protection standards that reduce vulne rability to flood impacts and ensure safe use and occupation of structures.
Table 3-19: FEMA Floodplain Categories
Category Description
A Within a 100-year floodplain, but the water height of the 100-year flood is not known.
A1-30 or AE Within a 100-year floodplain and the water height of the 100-year flood is known.
AO Within a 100-year floodplain, and the water height of the 100-year flood is between one and three feet but not specifically known.
A99 Within a 100 -year floodplain ; protected by flood protection infrastructures such as dams or levees.
AH Within a 100 -year floodplain, the water height of the 100 -year flood is between one and three feet and is specifically known.
AR Within a 100-year floodplain, it is protected by flood protection infrastructure that is not currently effective but is being rebuilt to provide protection.
V Within a 100-year floodplain for coastal floods, but the water height of the flood is not known.
V1-30 or VE Within a 100-year floodplain for coastal floods and the water height of the flood is known.
VO Within a 100-year floodplain for shallow coastal floods with a height between one and three feet.
B Within a 500 -year floodplain, or within a 100 -year floodplain with a water height less than one foot (found on older maps).
C Outside of the 500-year floodplain (found on older maps).
X Outside of the 500-year floodplain (found on newer maps).
X500 Within a 500-year floodplain or within a 100-year floodplain with a water height less than one foot (found on newer maps).
D Within an area with a potential and undetermined flood hazard.
M Within an area at risk of mudslides from a 100-year flood event.
N Within an area at risk of mudslides from a 500-year flood event.
P Within an area at risk of mudslides from a potential and undetermined flood event.
E Within an area at risk of erosion from a 100-year flood event.
Source: 24 CFR, Section 64.3
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59 Figure 3-6: Flood Hazard Zones in San Bernardino
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60 The City has also identified several locations where flooding can occur during precipitation events. Table 3-20 identifies these locations, which include storm drains requiring cleanings weekly, storm drains considered problems during heavy rains, and storm drains that require sandbags to avoid water damage to adjacent properties or to divert water flows more effectively during a rain event.
DAM INUNDATION
The City of San Bernardino has eight catch -basins that can inundate areas of the City if a failure occurs.
The basins serve several purposes , with the primary function of slowing and controlling the water flow.
Without basins to capture these flows, the County’s flood control channels could be inundated with so much water they would not be able to function.24 Figure 3-8 identifies the inundation zones for the catch basins within the City, described in Table 3-21. Based on this mapping, Seven Oaks generates the largest inundation area, which inundates a portion of the City and the neighboring cities of Highland, Redlands, and Colton.
Table 3-21: Reservoir Capacity/Dam Inundation Areas
Catch Basin Name Reservoir Capacity
Cactus Basin #3 528 acre-feet
Devil Canyon 355 acre-feet
Devil’s Canyon Dike #1 79 acre-feet
Little Mountain 150 acre-feet
Mineral Hot Springs Lake 31 acre-feet
Perris Hill Reservoir 31 acre-feet
Seven Oaks 145,600 acre-feet
Small Canyon 20 acre-feet
Source: Dams Within Jurisdiction of the State of California, September 2019, California Department of Water Resources, Division of Safety of Dams.
24 The Rutherford Report, San Bernardino County. https://www.sbcounty.gov/uploads/bosd2/report/issues/2012_may/index.html Table 3-20: Flooding Hotspots in San Bernardino
Location Cleaned Once a
Week
Problem
Draining During
Heavy Rains
Problem Spot
Requiring
Sandbag
Delivery
40th Street and Sierra Way No Flooding No
40th Street and Mountain View Avenue No Flooding No
40th Street and Electric No Flooding No
Baseline Street and Waterman Ave No Flooding No
Foisy Street, north of Central Avenue No Flooding No
Washington Avenue and Pine Avenue No Flooding No
Irvington Avenue and Pine Avenue No Flooding No
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61 There are dams that provide flood protection and water storage north of the City . Failure of these dams would have a limited impact on the City, as depicted in Figure 3-8. The primary threat of inundation comes from the Seven Oaks Dam. The Seven Oaks Dam is a 550 -foot-high earth and rock -fill dam with a crest length of 2,890 feet. This dam is a part of the Santa Ana River Mainstem project and has a gross capacity of 145,000 acre-ft.25 Table 3-22 identifies the significance of these downstream classifications.
Table 3-22: California Department of Water Resources Division of Safety of Dams – Downstream Hazard Classifications
Downstream Hazard
Potential Classifications
Potential Downstream Impacts on Life and Property
Low No probable loss of human life and low economic and environmental losses.
Losses are expected to be principally limited to the owner’s property.
Significant No probable loss of human life, but it can cause economic loss, environmental damage, impacts to critical facilities, or other significant impacts.
High Expected to cause the loss of at least one human life.
Extremely High Expected to cause considerable loss of human life or would result in an inundation area with a population of 1,000 or more.
Figure 3-5:
Dam Inundation Zones in San Bernardino
25 San Bernardino County Public Works
Figure 3-7: Dam Safety Action Classification (DSAC) Rating System
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62 Figure 3-8: Dam Inundation Zones in San Bernardino
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63 PAST EVENTS
FLOODING
Table 3-23 identifies past events of flooding in the city.
Table 3-23: History of Flooding in San Bernardino
Date Description and Effect
1/14/1916-
1/21/1916
Severe rainstorms in Southern California , over 8.5” in San Bernardino County , led to regional flooding, including massive flooding in the city ’s eastern section . The Santa Ana River was reported to be two miles wide and twenty feet deep.
1/25/1956-
1/27/1956
A heavy storm in Southern California brought 7.06” of rain to San Bernardino. Around San Bernardino, local floods filled streets and channels and blocked many roadways. Mud and rocks covered some roads, causing damage.
2/27/1957 A storm brought heavy rains to San Bernardino. Burn areas from fires the previous November in the San Bernardino foothills led to severe debris flows and flash floods into Highland. A block of homes and most of the school grounds were inundated. City Creek ran black from ash and soot. 9/17/1963-
9/19/1963
Tropical Storm Jennifer-Katherine made landfall in northern Baja California. Up to 3.86 inches fell in San Bernardino, causing disastrous flooding and erosion in northern San Bernardino. 1/1980 The San Bernardino Mountains were subjected to high-intensity rainstorms, during which time an excess of one inch per hour of rain fell. May debris basins in the City of San Bernardino were filled with mud and debris, particularly Harrison Basin, which overflowed into a nearby neighborhood, destroying 25-30 homes and damaging 25 more.
10/7/1997 An unexpected storm struck over the Sand Creek and Little Sand Creek watersheds, causing flooding throughout portions of San Bernardino, Highland, and San Bernardino County Service Area 38.
2/1998 Approximately 14.59 inches of rain was recorded for the month of February at the Gilbert Street gauge in San Bernardino. On 2/23, the gauge recorded 3-10 inches for the day. 12/25/2003 Heavy rain fell over the mountains and foothills, causing flash flooding and debris to wash across several highways and roads throughout San Bernardino County. Debris flowed into Waterman Canyon, moving through Saint Sofia Camp, killing 14 people. The debris flow continued down Waterman Canyon, destroying two bridges and filling the basin north of San Bernardino. 10/13/2006 A thunderstorm brought 0.51” of rain in 5 minutes and 1.81” inches in 30 minutes to San Bernardino. Eighteen homes and businesses and two vehicles were damaged by flooding. Big sinkholes were left in the road. One swift water rescue occurred. Mud and debris were left on the roads.
8/1/2017 Numerous monsoon thunderstorms struck the valleys. Approximately 1.56 inches fell in Alpine in a short period. Flash flooding, downed trees, and power outages were reported in Corona, Perris, San Bernardino, Temecula, and Alpine.
12/23/2021 A series of storms paraded through the region, each bringing heavy rain. Two -day totals for this storm reached 6” in the mountains, but Lytle Creek alone achieved just over 8”. The northern Inland Empire got 2-5”, while most other lower elevation stations received 0.75-3”. 12/11/2022 An atmospheric river brought heavy rain to Southern California , ranging from 0.50 -2” in the lowlands, generally 2- 4” in the mountains, except Lytle Creek, with 5.03”. 12/31/2022-
1/1/2023
A potent storm moved in late on 12.31.2022 and continued into 1.1.2023. Many mountain locations recorded over 4” of precipitation, mostly rain. Lytle Creek recorded 5.85”.
Source: A History of Significant Weather Events in Southern California San Bernardino County Flood History
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64 DAM INUNDATION
Despite some significant flooding events in the late 1800s and early 1900s, including one in 1862 that wiped out the tiny Santa Ana River hamlet of Agua Mansa near present -day Colton, regional flood management and mitigation w eren’t given a great deal of consideration in San Bernardino County until the Great Flood of March 1938. That deluge claimed 14 lives, left hundreds homeless , and caused an estimated $12 million ($220 million in 2020 dollars) in property damage.
In 1939, the State Legislature passed the San Bernardino County Flood District Act, which empowered the County to develop regional flood protection facilities to protect life and property. Today, San Bernardino County Flood Control operates and maintains 14 dams, 119 basins, 82 levees, and more than 250 miles of flood control channels. The dams, levees, and channels are designed to convey runoff around homes and businesses in the valley safely. 26
RISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
FLOODING
There is no indication that the severe rainfall that leads to flooding will abate in the future, either in San Bernardino or the greater region of Southern California. While San Bernardino may experience prolonged periods of dry or wet years, flood events will likely continue to impact the city. For areas within the 100 - year and 500 -year flood hazard zones, the likelihood of flooding occurring annually is 1% and 0.2%, respectively.
Because the City is vulnerable to flooding during the winter storm , it actively participates in the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Through this program, “Special Flood Hazard Areas” within the city are identified and mapped on Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), identifying the areas that require flood insurance. FIRMs generally describe flooding in terms of a 100 - or 500 -year flood event, which translates into the probability (1.0% or 0.2%, respectively) that flooding could occur within the designated zone in any given year. In addition to the federal requirements within the NFIP, the City has adopted flood protection standards requiring minimum building elevation, flood-proofing, and anchoring of buildings in areas prone to flooding. Figure 3-6 identifies the FEMA Flood Hazard Zones mapped within the City.
Since its incorporation, San Bernardino has worked with San Bernardino County on flood management and mitigation projects. The City also takes steps on an annual basis to maintain and prepare for flood events, ensuring the existing infrastructure can effectively convey floodwaters. Flood events within the City can occur either due to large storms and flash flooding that overwhelms infrastructure or the failure of flood control facilities that inundate downstream communities.
D
AM INUNDATION
With the adoption of SB 92 in 2017, new dam safety requirements mandate that dam owners map the downstream inundation areas for dams governed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). In addition to the mapping, owners must prepare Dam Emergen cy Action Plans that identify the emergency management plans and procedures in place for these facilities. Figure 3- 8 identifies the inundation areas mapped for dams upstream from the City. For inundation to occur, as depicted in this map, it is assumed the reservoirs behind these dams are full, and failure occurs suddenly, releasing water
26 Ibid.
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65 in a relatively short amount of time. Failures typically occur from an earthquake, erosion, design flaw, or water overflow condition during intense storms.
CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
FLOODING
Climate change is expected to affect California’s precipitation patterns, likely influencing future flood events. A 2017 study found that the number of very intense precipitation days in California is projected to more than double by the end of the century, increasing 117 percent, making it likely that flood events will become more frequent27. More flood events could increase the frequency of maintenance and repair activities and require operational changes to City function. Much of the City’s infrastructure may require modification and retrofit to better accommodate changes anticipated from climate change. As a result, significant investment in future infrastructure may be necessary.
DAM INUNDATION
Overall, engineers say that most dams that were built decades ago in the United States are unsuited to a warmer world and stronger storms. 28 Some recent dam episodes have been shown to have a climate change link. In February 2017, at Oroville Dam in California, the tallest in the nation, heavy mountain runoff into the reservoir led to an emergency spillway near failure and severe damage to the main spillway. Nearly 200,000 people were evacuated as a precaution, and repairs cost more than $1 billion. A later study found that increased early-season Sierra Nevada runoff contributed to the dam’s high water levels. This early season runoff can be attributed to human-caused warming. 29 In addition to short -duration extreme precipitation, rainfall of longer duration but less intensity —an overall wetter climate, which climate models forecast for parts of the United States in the coming decades—can contribute to the risk. 30 Overall, the main consideration will be the weather patterns and how rainfall will affect the city and the county, as many of the catch basins and dams in the region connect multiple cities and counties.
P
HYSICAL THREAT
FLOODING
Portions of the city are located within the 100-year flood zone (1.0% Annual Chance of Flooding) and the 500-year flood zone (0.2% Annual Chance of Flooding). Any physical assets within these mapped boundaries can be inundated if enough precipitation falls, exceeding the storm drain infrastructure design capacity in these areas. Electronic or mechanical equipment on the ground could be impacted, causing it to fail. Table 3-24 identifies that no physical assets within the City are located in the 100-year flood zone but that there are physical assets within the City in the 500 -year flood zone, including 20 FOC. In total, these facilities are valued at over $10 million. Figure 3-6 depicts the locations of CFs and FOCs located in
27 Polade, S.D., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D.R., Dettinger, M.D., & Pierce, D.W. 2017. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro- climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Scientific Reports. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017- 11285-y
28 Fountain, H. 2020. “’Expect More’: Climate Change Raises Risk of Dam Failures.” New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/climate/dam-failure-michigan-climate change.html#:~:text=the%20main%20story,'Expect%20More'%3A%20Climate%20Change%20Raises%20Risk%20of%20Dam%20Failures,war mer%20world%20and%20stronger%20storms.&text=The%20dam%20that%20failed%20in,It%20was%20overwhelmed%20by%20water 29 Ibid.
30 Ibid.
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66 FEMA-designated flood zones, which include the 100 -Year Flood Hazard (blue), 500 -Year Flood Hazard (orange), and Areas with Reduced Flood Risk Due to Levee (yellow).
DAM INUNDATION
Various factors, such as the amount of water released, the distance between the dam failure site, and the topography of the surrounding land, will influence the extent to which physical assets in San Bernardino are threatened. The Seven Oaks Dam has large storage capacities that could cause widespread inundation in San Bernardino if the reservoir waters are released due to a dam breach. Table 3-25 identifies the physical assets in San Bernardino that are threatened by the potential failure of the Seven Oaks Dam.
Based on this analysis, dam inundation would affect 11 CFs and 46 FOCs within the city, with the potential to cause approximately $98 million in damages, based on available information. Figure 3-8 shows the location of the identified CFs and FOCs within these dam inundation zones.
Table 3-25: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Dam Inundation-Seven Oaks Dam) Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 10 2 $55,248,613
Schools 0 14 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 8 $21,596,372
Other Facilities 1 22 $21,592,820
Total 11 46 $98,437,805
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District Table 3-24: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern in FEMA Flood Zones Category
Number of Facilities
100 Year Floodplain Potential
Loss*
Number of Facilities
500 Year Floodplain Potential Loss*
Critical Concern Critical Concern
City Facilities 0 0 - 0 0 -
Schools 0 0 - 0 8 ?
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 0 - 0 8 $10,724,772 Other Facilities 0 0 - 0 4 ?
Total 0 0 - 0 20 $10,724,772
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
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67 SOCIAL THREAT
FLOODING
Floodwaters in both the 100-year and 500-year zones are anticipated to rise to a depth of no more than one foot above the base flood elevation. Flooding of this type would likely inundate curb cuts and sidewalks to some extent. People who walk or bike as their primary form of transportation may encounter difficulties if they do not have access to an alternative means of transportation. Seniors, persons with disabilities, and low-income persons are also likely to be impacted during these events. Table 3-26 shows the proportion of San Bernardino’s vulnerable populations facing a greater flood threa t. Based on the information in Table 3-26, the median household income in the 100 -year and 500 -year flood zones is higher than the citywide average. The threat of flood hazards is especially a concern for those living in the 500-year flood zone, as this affects approximately 30% of the city’s population.
Persons experiencing homelessness who are outside during flood conditions may experience property damage or cannot access shelter. Though floodwaters in San Bernardino are not expected to exceed a depth of one foot in many areas, six inches of floodwater may render any makeshift structures uninhabitable during a flood event. Possessions such as sleeping bags or electr onic devices may be damaged or swept away by these floodwaters.
DAM INUNDATION
Dam failure hazards in the city would impact various downstream properties and the residents that live there. Table 3-27 identifies these potential dam failure impacts caused by the Seven Oaks Dam. Failure of the Seven Oaks Dam would affect 17% of the population. Populations impacted by Seven Oaks Dam have a lower median household income than the citywide population; however, dam inundation would impact a much lower percentage of populations living with a disability and households with one member aged 65+ than the citywide population.
Table 3-26: Flood-Threatened Populations
Threatened Population Metric Flood
Hazards
(100 Years)
Flood
Hazards
(500 Years)
City of San
Bernardino
Population 8,564 67,216 221,116
Households 2,600 20,052 66,156
Median household income $58,516 $53,400 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 15.5% 15.3% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person
living with a disability
2.77% 2.72% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty
limit
6.34% 6.24% 21.0%
Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 2.84% 9.25% 9.4%
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68 OTHER THREATS
FLOODING
Flooding may temporarily stop any type of transportation in the City. Debris from floodwaters can block roadways, hinder vehicle access, and potentially affect emergency response services. Depending on the velocity, one foot of rushing water is enough to carry small vehicles . A severe flood may prevent people who own smaller vehicles from driving to work, reducing economic activity. Severe flooding that causes serious damage to homes and businesses may also reduce economic activity until repair work is completed.
D
AM INUNDATION
Dam failures are often triggered by other events (seismic shaking, intense rainstorms, etc.). Often when these events occur, there would almost certainly be service disruptions in San Bernardino. Floodwater would quickly inundate downstream portions of the City, disrupting utilities, such as water, power, and heating, and other services, such as communications or transportation infrastructure. Residents may find street lighting and traffic signals temporarily disabled if the inundation area interferes with the electronic systems that control them. The rapid inundation of water would sweep up any debris, which could block roads, impeding traffic flow. Water would likely inundate roadways and other low -lying, flat areas, such as parking lots, open spaces, and schoolyards. In severe scenarios, people’s mobility in these areas would likely be restricted or even impossible. Any unprotected or unhoused mechanical or electronic equipment that is not properly elevated would become waterlogged and inoperable until crews can conduct repairs or replacements, if necessary.
CHANGES IN POPULATION AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT
FLOODING
Based on the current San Bernardino Housing Element, population patterns are anticipated to increase by approximately 1.3% by 2030. Given the significant number of residents currently residing in FEMA flood zones, it is unlikely that flooding will significantly affect the City’s population patterns and growth.
However, flooding will likely continue to affect land use and development patterns (as a side effect of the development review process), as flood -related impacts have to be accounted for, mitigated, and minimized. However, land use designations and new dev elopment may be limited in these areas out of Table 3-27: Dam inundation Threatened Populations (Seven Oaks Dam) Threatened Population Metric Flood
Hazards
(100 Years)
City of San
Bernardino
Population 38,330 221,116
Households 12,097 66,156
Median household income $50,787 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 16.2% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability
2.87% 9.1%
Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 6.60% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 2.97% 9.4%
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69 precaution or subject to policies developed in City documents such as the LHMP, Land Use, Housing, and Safety Elements.
DAM FAILURE
Based on the current San Bernardino Housing Element, population patterns are anticipated to increase by approximately 1.3% by 2030. Given the significant number of residents currently residing in the Seven Oaks Dam inundation zone, it is un likely that the potential threat of dam failure will affect the City’s population patterns and growth. Those in the inundation zone may choose to move out of the city or out of the inundation area if the impacts of dam failure are great enough. Those renting homes within the city (approximately 52% of households within the city) have little control over the rebuilding process of a home that has been affected by inundation and, therefore, may be forced to move out of the inundation area or out of the city.
It is likely that flooding will continue to affect land use and development patterns (as a side effect of the development review process), as flood-related impacts from dam inundation have to be accounted for, mitigated, and minimized. However, land use designations and new development may be limited in these areas out of precaution or subject to policies developed in City documents such as the LHMP, Land Use, Housing, and Safety Elements.
Severe Weather (Severe Winds, Extreme Heat, Drought)
DESCRIPTION
SEVERE WINDS
Wind is simply the movement of air caused by differences in atmospheric pressure and temperature. High- pressure air will naturally move to areas of low pressure. Usually, the distance between these high - and low-pressure zones is far; however, these low- and high-pressure zones occasionally may be near one another. When this happens, air will flow dramatically, creating high -speed winds. The most common wind events in southern California are the “Santa Ana” winds. Figure 3 -9 depicts the typical conditions that occur in the fall and winter to create these events. When winds are fast enough, they can damage homes, public facilities, utilities, and other infrastructure. They can also uproot or topple mature trees, pick up debris, and send it careening through the air. This debris can injure or even kill bystanders who may find themselves stranded outside. High-speed winds can deposit this debris in the middle of rights - of-way, such as roads, freeways, and railways, blocking exit routes for would -be evacuees or impeding access to first responders trying to reach wounded people.
EXTREME HEAT
Extreme heat is a period when temperatures are abnormally high relative to the normal temperature range. There are generally three types of extreme heat events:
• Extreme Heat Days: a day during which the maximum temperature surpasses 98 percent of all historic high temperatures for the area, using the time between April and October from 1950 to 2005 as the baseline.
• Warm Nights: a day between April and October when the minimum temperature exceeds 98 percent of all historic minimum daytime temperatures observed between 1950 and 2005. • Extreme Heat Waves: a successive series of extreme heat days and warm nights where extreme temperatures do not abate; while no universally accepted minimum length of time for a heatwave
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70 event exists, Cal-Adapt considers four successive extreme heat days and warm nights to be the minimum threshold for an extreme heatwave.
DROUGHT
A drought is a long period with substantially less precipitation than usual. The primary direct impact of a drought is the reduction of available water supplies. This is particularly concerning in agricultural areas and natural environments but can also affect urban areas. Droughts can harm landscapes because plants do not get the water they need to survive. In severe cases, droughts may lead to a human health risk if available water supplies are insufficient to meet basic needs.
Indirectly, drought causes soils to dry out, making them harder and less able to absorb water. When precipitation returns, the soil absorbs less water, increasing runoff, which can lead to flooding. Dry soils are more susceptible to erosion, especially if plants have died or no longer provide stability due to loss of roots and soil composition changes. Drought causes many plants in natural areas to dry out, making them more susceptible to pests/diseases and increasing the risk of wildfires.
L
OCATION AND EXTENT
SEVERE WIND
In Southern California, the most common type of severe wind event is called the Santa Ana wind. High pressure over Nevada and Utah, often during the fall and winter months, forces air down from the high desert toward the ocean. As the winds descend, they heat up and increase in speed, sometimes carrying particulate matter and aggravating the respiratory health of those with allergies. San Bernardino is often affected by Santa Ana winds blowing through the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountain ranges via the Cajon Pass. Santa Ana winds contribute to the threat and spread of wildfires in California. Santa Ana winds can damage the electrical distribution infrastructure, creating wildfire ignitions due to arcing or downed power lines. Santa Ana winds can also result in rapid fire spread from ordinarily contained or Source: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-are-santa-ana-winds-2/343027 Figure 3-9: Santa Ana Winds
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71 small fires such as vehicle fires or fires caused by discarded smoking materials. Depending on the severity of the wind event, any part of the city can be affected by severe winds.
Generally, winds are measured using the Beaufort scale, developed in 1805, which categorizes wind events on a force scale from 0 to 12 using their speed and impacts. Any wind classified as force nine or above is generally considered a severe wind event. Table 3 -28 identifies the Beaufort scale, which classifies wind events in detail.
EXTREME HEAT
Extreme heat events will feel different from region to region since different areas have different historic high temperatures. For example, an extreme heat day on the coast will feel different than an extreme heat day in the High Desert. The reason for this is how humidity affects people's perceived heat. Humid conditions will make a day feel hotter than non-humid conditions, even though the temperature may be the same. The difference between the perceived and actual temperatures is known as the “heat index.” To illustrate the effect of the heat index, a 90-degree day with 50 percent humidity feels like 95°F, whereas a 90°F Day with 90 percent humidity feels like 122°F. Figure 3- 10 illustrates the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service Heat Index.
Extreme heat events are not limited to any part of the city. They occur with the same intensity and duration at the same time across all locations in San Bernardino. For San Bernardino, an extreme heat day involves a temperature that exceeds 10 1.2°F, and a warm night involves a temperature that exceeds
68.1°F. 31 These thresholds are based on a 2% probability event.
31 https://cal-adapt.org/tools/extreme-heat
Table 3-28: Beaufort Scale
Force Speed
(mph)
Description
0 0 to 1 Calm: Smoke rises vertically
1 1 to 3 Light air: The direction of the wind is shown by smoke drift but not wind vanes. 2 4 to 7 Light breeze: Wind is felt on the face, leaves rustle, and wind vanes are moved. 3 8 to 12 Gentle breeze: Leaves and small twigs are in motion, and light flags are extended. 4 13 to 18 Moderate breeze: Dust and loose paper become airborne, and small branches are moved. 5 19 to 24 Fresh breeze: Small trees begin to sway
6 25 to 31 Strong breeze: Large branches are in motion, and using an umbrella becomes difficult. 7 32 to 38 High wind: Whole trees are in motion and walking against the wind can be hard. 8 39 to 46 Strong wind: Walking is difficult, and twigs break off trees. 9 47 to 54 Severe wind: Slight structural damage.
10 55 to 63 Storm: Trees are uprooted and considerable damage to structures. 11 63 to 72 Violent storm: Widespread damage.
12 73 and
above
Hurricane: Devastating damage.
Source: https://www.weather.gov/mfl/beaufort
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72 DROUGHT
Droughts are somewhat frequent in California and typically occur when precipitation is limited for an extended period. Rain arrives in California via atmospheric rivers (channels of moist air located high in the atmosphere) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle (a regional meteorological phenomenon in the southern Pacific Ocean). This cycle typically gives rise to two distinct phases: El Niño, the warm and wet phase, and La Niña, the dry and cold phase. When California experiences a drought, it is typically the result of fewer atmospheric rivers or an active La Niña phase, resulting in lower-than-average precipitation levels. Drought may also occur when conditions in areas where water sources are located experience drought conditions, even though the local region does not. Table 3-29 identifies the drought classifications used by the US Drought Monitor program. This classification system synthesizes multiple different scales into a descriptive index.
Communities that rely on water supplies from other parts of the State versus communities that source their water supplies locally may experience drought differently. Currently, the San Bernardino Municipal Water Department relies solely on water extracted from the Bunker Hill Groundwater Basin to meet its demands.32
Droughts are regional events, so all parts of San Bernardino face the same drought risk . However, urban areas will likely experience different effects than open-space areas. It is also possible for communities to experience a “long -distance drought” since many urban areas in California receive water supplies from great distances. If these distant areas experience drought, it may cause water shortages in the urban areas that rely on them, even if these areas are experiencing normal precipitation levels.
32 City of San Bernardino Municipal Water Department 2019 LHMP Figure 3-10: NOAA’s National Weather Service Heat Index
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73 Table 3-29: US Drought Monitor Classification Scheme Category Description Possible Impacts
D0* Abnormally Dry Slower growth of crops and pastures
D1 Moderate Drought Some damage to crops and pastures. Water bodies and wells are low. Some water shortages may occur or may be imminent. Voluntary water use restrictions can be requested.
D2 Severe Drought Likely crop and pasture losses. Water shortages are common, and water restrictions can be imposed.
D3 Extreme Drought Major crop and pasture losses. Widespread water shortages and restrictions.
D4 Exceptional
Drought
Exceptional and widespread crop and pasture losses. Emergency water shortages develop.
Source: US Drought Monitor
* D0 areas are those under “drought watch” but not technically in a drought. They are potentially heading into drought conditions or recovering from drought but are not yet back to normal.
PAST EVENTS
SEVERE WIND
Severe wind incidents are a common occurrence in the c ity. Annually the c ity is subjected to Santa Ana Wind conditions that can cause significant damage to trees, buildings, and vehicles. While the effects of Santa Ana Winds are often overlooked, it should be noted that in 2003, two deaths in Southern California were directly related to the fierce condition. A falling tree struck one woman in San Diego. The second death occurred when a passenger in a vehicle was hit by a pickup truck cover launched by the Santa Ana Winds.
The following are significant events that have affected the city and region in the past:
• December 12-13, 1987 - Strong Santa Ana winds in San Bernardino, with gusts to 80 mph, causing downed tree limbs and damaged cars and homes.
• January 6-7, 2003 - Widespread regional Santa Ana winds in the region resulted in 2 dead, 11 injured, and widespread property damage, road closures, downed trees, crop damage, wildfires, and power outages.
• October 25-27, 2003 - Santa Ana winds exacerbated the Old Fire, which began in the San Bernardino Mountains and would consume 91,281 acres and kill six before it was extinguished. • December 3, 2006 – Gusts of over 75 mph occurred in San Bernardino and caused downed powerlines to spark a small fire.
• November 2014 - A Santa Ana wind event caused winds of approximately 50 mph, with damage reported throughout the region.
• August 16, 2016 - Winds fanned the Blue Cut Fire, which spread rapidly, forcing 84,000 mandatory evacuations and threatening 35,000 homes. For two days, numerous roads were closed, including I-15, in both directions. The fire destroyed 105 homes and 313 smaller structures and scorched 36,274 acres before being extinguished. • January 2017 - A series of three storms caused strong winds that knocked down hundreds of trees throughout the region, causing millions of dollars in damage. • February 25, 2021 - After several offshore wind events during February, a particularly strong Santa Ana blew. Gusts of 80 to 90 mph were measured in the foothills north of San Bernardino.
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74 EXTREME HEAT
Based on Cal Adapt’s historical information (1950 through 2005), the c ity experiences five extreme heat days per year. During this same period, the city averaged (1) 4-day heatwave every year. Climate modeling under RCP 4.5 (the medium emissions scenario) predicts that by 2035, the city will experience (4) 4-day heatwave events per year and (6) 4-day heatwave events per year by the end of the century (2070-2099).
Climate modeling under RCP 8.5 (the high emissions scenario) predicts that by 2035, the city will experience (6) 4-day heatwave events per year and (10) 4-day heatwave events per year by the end of the century (2070-2099). Over the past 16 years (2005-2021), the city has experienced an extreme heat event (101.2° F or higher) every year except 2007. In 2022, California experienced one of the worst heatwaves it has ever experienced. F rom September 1st through Se ptember 9 th, 2022 , temperature records for September were shattered across the western portion of the United States , including San Bernardino , where temperatures reached 108° F.
The County of San Bernardino has issued several high heat advisories between 2014 and 2020, as shown in Table 3-30.
Table 3-30: Extreme Weather Events, 2014 to 2020
DATE
September 4, 2020
July 24, 2018
July 6, 2018
August 25, 2017
July 21, 2016
October 9, 2015
August 12, 2015
June 18, 2015
September 11, 2014
May 12, 2014
DROUGHT
Like the rest of California, San Bernardino has experienced many drought events throughout its history.
Each event has been distinct, with varying lengths, severity, and frequency. One of the earliest recorded major droughts in state history is known as the “Great Drought,” which occurred in 1863 and 1864. This drought killed 46 percent of the cattle in the state and ultimately led to the decline of cattle ranching. The “Dustbowl Droughts,” lasting from 1928 to 1935, caused great impacts on the state’s agriculture. The effects of this drought were so severe that it sparked the movement to create some of California’s modern water irrigation infrastructure, such as the California Aqueduct. Another drought occurred in 1976 and
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75 1977, leading to nearly $1 billion in agricultural losses. Implementation of water-saving practices resulted from this drought, which is still in effect today across the state. Further water conservation practices were enacted during a drought lasting from 1987 to 1993, which caused an estimated $250 million in agricultural damages each year.
California experienced its most recent drought beginning in 2012 and lasting until 2017. All areas of the state were impacted, and by 2014 it was reported as the most severe drought in 1,200 years. Figure 3-11 illustrates the severity of the drought conditions experienced over the past 23 years.
By the summer of 2014, almost all of California was experiencing D2 (Severe Drought) conditions. San Bernardino, all of San Bernardino County, and more than 75 percent of California were reported as experiencing the most intense level of drought conditions, D4 (Exceptional Drought). By 2015, emergency water-saving mandates were enacted, requiring all jurisdictions to reduce water use by at least 25 percent. In late 2016 and early 2017, successive heavy rains helped end the drought conditions in the state. The following winter, in late 2017 and early 2018, rains did not return in the same quantity, and slight drought conditions returned across California. This moderate drought was again abated in late 2018 and early 2019 in the winter season when heavy rains ended any existing drought conditions.
In November 2022, the majority of the state was in D2 (Severe Drought) and D3 (Extreme Drought) conditions, with Central California falling into the D4 (Exceptional Drought) category. A series of atmospheric rivers that swept through California from December 2022 to March 2023, bringing more than 78 trillion gallons of water, eliminated the drought for most of the state. 33 As of February 2024, most of California is no longer in a drought. The majority of San Bernardino County is experiencing D0 (Abnormally Dry) and D1 (Moderate Drought) conditions. Figure 3-12 identifies current drought conditions as of February 27, 2024.
Figure 3-11: Drought History (2000-2023)
33 Rice, Doyle. “Trillions of Gallons Have Soaked California. Is This the State's Wettest Winter Ever?” USA Today, March 29, 202 3. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/03/29/californias-snow-rain-totals-explained/11525451002/.
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76 RISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
SEVERE WIND
Given San Bernardino’s history of severe wind events, it is very likely that wind events will continue to impact the city. The most probable source of these events in the future will likely originate from the Santa Ana winds or extreme storms. All expectations are that the probability they will occur again in the future is highly likely.
EXTREME HEAT
According to Cal- Adapt data, which relies on NOAA data sources, San Bernardino experiences extreme heat days. The city historically (1950 -2005) experiences, on average, four extreme heat days annually based on this historic al period. That number of days increased to 9 days annually from 2006 -2021.
According to Cal-Adapt’s projections, the city is projected to experience between 22 and 35 extreme heat days annually from 2050 to 2099 .34 As temperatures rise throughout California, the number of extreme heat days will also increase.
DROUGHT
Drought will continue to be a foreseeable event in the future of California, including San Bernardino.
Droughts in the area are expected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change. Droughts that result from infrastructure failure are equally impossible to predict since the circumstances that lead to infrastructure failure are unique to each situation.
C
LIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
SEVERE WIND
It is anticipated that the atmospheric rivers that deliver storms to Southern California may intensify because of climate change. While the average number of storms in Southern California will remain the same, storms are expected to increase by 10 to 20 pe rcent. 35 This increase in storm intensity may also bring more intense winds to the Southern California region, including San Bernardino.
Regarding Santa Ana winds, however, studies indicate that these events may be affected in varying ways.
According to one study that examined two global climate models, there is a projected increase in future Santa Ana events. However, other studies have found that the number of Santa Ana events may decrease by about 20% in the future.
36 Given the anticipated increases in temperatures throughout the region, future events are anticipated to become more severe in some cases, even if the total number of events decreases.
Regarding severe storms, c limate change is expected to alter rainfall patterns in Southern California, including San Bernardino. As the climate warms, rain events are predicted to become more intense. San Bernardino will likely experience more rain inundation events that lead to flooding and increase the potential threat of dam failure, tree mortality, and other potential hazards.
34 Cal Adapt, City of San Bernardino, https://cal-adapt.org/tools/extreme-heat 35 Atmospheric Rivers to Soak California as Climate Warms. https://www.livescience.com/49225-atmospheric-rivers-double-climate-change.html 36 Hall, Alex, Neil Berg, Katharine Reich. (University of California, Los Angeles). 2018. Los Angeles Summary Report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/Reg%20Report-%20SUM-CCCA4-2018- 007%20LosAngeles_ADA.pdf
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77 Figure 3-12: U.S. Drought Monitor – California
EXTREME HEAT
The primary effect of climate change is warmer average temperatures. The hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, with 2016 and 2020 being tied. 37 As climate change accelerates in the 21st century, it is anticipated that extreme heat events will become more frequent and intense in the c ity. With the projection that extreme heat days could increase between 22 and 35 days annually by 2100, the city can expect a shift in residential and business needs for cooling and addressing heat-related issues.
DROUGHT
Climate change is anticipated to abate drought in certain situations but, on the other hand, could also intensify and exacerbate it in other cases. In some cases, climate change-intensified weather patterns, like ENSO, may bring more rain to California and San Bernardino, which would abate drought conditions for the State’s affected parts. In other cases, climate change may also prolong the La Niña phase of ENSO, leading to longer dry periods with no precipitation in California.
37 Rebecca Hersher and Lauren Sommer. 2020. “2020 May be the Hottest Year on Record. Here’s the Damage it did.” NPR. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/18/943219856/2020-may-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-heres-the-damage-it-did
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78 Due to climate change, droughts are expected to become more frequent and intense in San Bernardino County and, more broadly, throughout California by mid-century. Scientific studies indicate:
• Climate change is projected to drive more frequent historically warm temperatures, reduced precipitation and snowpack, abnormally dry soils, and, in turn, drought conditions. • Modeling studies attribute more frequent coincident warm and dry years and more severe drought conditions in Southern California due to climate change. • The incidence of extremely dry years (those occurring in 1 out of every 100 years over the historical period) could triple by the end of the century. • The likelihood of long-duration droughts in San Bernardino County would increase significantly, with some studies showing a more than 80% chance of multidecadal drought by the end of the century.
38 Climate change is also expected to increase the average temperature and cause more frequent and prolonged heat waves in California and San Bernardino . During these events, water supplies may be diverted for cooling functions in the City. Hotter temperatures may also lead to increased surface water evaporation, which could contribute to greater water consumption. If a drought were to occur during a future heatwave, it could place water supplies under strain.
From a regional perspective, warmer overall temperatures in California are anticipated to reduce statewide water supplies. Much of California’s water comes from melted snow in the High Sierra, where mountain snowpack acts as a natural reservoir. As the ave rage temperature grows warmer with climate change, the amount of precipitation that falls as snow is expected to shift towards rain. Precipitation as rain will not flow into reservoirs and aqueducts the same way snowmelt does. The natural water reservoirs created by the snowpack stay intact as the initial snowpack runoff begins in the early spring and ends in early to late summer, depending on the level of the snowpack. 39 The runoff from the snowpack can be
managed due to the slow pace at which the snow melts; however, when rain occurs in place of snowfall, there is no significant way to collect the water and retain it because it falls much faster. As less snow falls, the amount of melted water from the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada will decrease, reducing the water flowing into the reservoirs and aqueducts that supply Southern California . If regional and local water agencies, such as the California State Water Project (supplemental source of water for the City) and the San Bernardino Municipal Water Department (which draws its water from the local Bunker Hill Basin), do not account for increased groundwater withdrawal, San Bernardino and the San Bernardino County region could experience greater dependence on imported water.
P
HYSICAL THREAT
SEVERE WIND
Intense winds likely present the greatest threat to physical structures, particularly from trees or branches that fall on buildings/vehicles , causing substantial damage. Older structures that have deferred maintenance or have not been retrofitted for high wind conditions may suffer greater damage than newer/updated structures. Utility lines and wooden utility poles face an elevated threat from wind, as do
38 San Bernardino County Vulnerability Assessment. https://wrcog.us/DocumentCenter/View/7477/San-Bernardino-County-Vulnerability- Assessment
39 NASA. “World of Change: Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada.” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of- change/SierraNevada#:~:text=The%20snowpack%20on%20the%20Sierra%20Nevada%20has%20generally%20peaked%20and,reservoirs%20whi le%20recharging%20the%20groundwater.
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79 buildings without reinforced roofs. Utility poles and trees often suffer impacts during high wind events after a significant rain event. During these events, saturated soils around the base of the tree/pole may be unable to withstand the strains placed on it by strong winds causing it to fall over.
Trees, tree branches, and other objects have the potential to fall on powerlines and other electrical infrastructure during a severe windstorm, causing power outages throughout the city. Another physical threat of severe wind is wildfire impacts and electric utilities’ current practice of conducting Public Safety Power Shutoff activities. During high wind events, these shutoffs may impact structures that rely on electricity for normal operations. See social threats for population impacts that may also occur because of these events.
E
XTREME HEAT
Extremely high temperatures can cause roads to deform and buckle as the pavement expands in the heat, especially in poorly maintained areas . Power lines and other electrical grid components become less effective in higher temperatures and may be damaged due to stress during extreme heat events. Urban heat islands occur when natural land cover is replaced with concentrations of pavement, build ings, or other surfaces that absorb and retain heat. Buildings with dark pavement will absorb more heat than surfaces with vegetation or lighter materials that are better at reflecting the sun’s energy. This urban heat island effect is strongest during the summer when solar radiation is strongest.
D
ROUGHT
Since the primary threat from drought is reduced water supply and availability, there are no foreseeable threats to any of the City’s physical assets. It is possible that any water delivery infrastructure not used or used less than usual may fall into some degree of disrepair if maintenance is deferred. Lower water pressures may cause some aged water pipes to release rust particles int o the water supply. Amenities within facilities, like water features and landscaping , could be affected by reduced watering. If dead or dying vegetation becomes a nuisance, the City may have to replace or retrofit locations affected.
S
OCIAL THREAT
SEVERE WIND
Severe wind events can harm people throughout San Bernardino but have a greater effect on the safety of people experiencing homelessness and those working outdoors. Severe wind events may impact populations that work outside or have respiratory illnesse s as they can generate dust and other contaminants that can affect the health of residents and workers. Lower-income residents, who may not have the financial resources to purchase homes (or are renting homes) that are not built or retrofitted to withstand powerful winds, could also have difficulty recovering from wind events.
E
XTREME HEAT
Whereas a heat event can be relatively harmless for those with a reliable means of staying hydrated and cool, the event can be deadly for others. Young children, the elderly, or people suffering from serious medical conditions are physiologically more vuln erable to heatstroke. Some senior citizens also take medicines that can make it harder for their bodies to maintain a safe internal temperature, creating an additional threat from extreme heat events. Young children may not be aware of the signs of dehydration or ways of protecting themselves from heatstroke.
Homeless people are at a high risk of health complications during heat waves, especially if they are unsheltered. According to San Bernardino County homeless counts, in 2022, there were approximately
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80 3,333 individuals experiencing homelessness in the county, with 71.7% percent unsheltered. 40 Of the 3,333 individuals experiencing homelessness within the county, approximately 1,350 individuals are experiencing homelessness within the city. This population is very vulnerable to heatstroke during a heatwave, especially if they cannot reach a cooling center.
Sudden spikes in heat can catch people by surprise. Stores can rapidly sell out of fans, air- conditioning units, or drinking water during a heatwave. Many lower-income households live in older, poorly insulated, and energy -inefficient housing and cannot af ford to run their air conditioning, which can be further compounded by the threat of power outages due to heat/rolling blackouts. During these events, extreme heat impacts may affect larger portions of the city and populations that would not be viewed as vulnerable under normal circumstances.
D
ROUGHT
Droughts are unlikely to cause serious social threats to households in San Bernardino, though residents and business owners in the city may experience financial impacts associated with water conservation efforts. Those with less access to financial resources, such as low-income households or seniors, could be harder hit if higher water rates or additional fees are imposed during a severe drought event.
OTHER THREATS
SEVERE WIND
Southern California and the City of San Bernardino suffer from seasonal Santa Ana Winds and will for the foreseeable future. Extreme wind events can worsen other risks, such as wildfires. It could affect the take- off and landing of small aircraft at nearby airports, leading to an increased risk of possible aircraft incidents.
E
XTREME HEAT
Extreme Heat for any length of time can also affect other hazards and risks within the city. For example, it can create a spike in electricity demand leading to power loss/failure, food insecurities, and a rise in vector-borne disease transmission. Coupled with extreme wind, it can cause or spread urban fires and jeopardize additional neighborhoods/communities.
D
ROUGHT
A typical drought is not anticipated to lead to any outages in service in San Bernardino . However, an exceptional drought may lead to restricted water use for residents or businesses in the City. Trees that are not adequately adapted to lower irrigation levels could perish, altering the City’s aesthetic appearance and long-term air quality. Any open spaces with extensive lawns may start to die, turning brown, which could discourage residents from using these parks and open spaces. In addition, long- term dro ught conditions can change and reduce soil’s ability to absorb water. When this occurs, water runoff from these areas may increase, which could cause downstream flooding and erosion in some areas.
CHANGES IN POPULATION AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT
SEVERE WIND
Severe windstorms occur periodically (primarily during the Fall months) and generally do not affect populations to the degree that they would need to migrate in and out of the city. The anticipated
40 San Bernardino County. 2022. Homeless Count and Subpopulation Survey. https://www.sbcounty.gov/uploads/sbchp/SBC-2022-Homeless- Count-Report.pdf
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81 population growth in San Bernardino, is not expected to have a significant impact on the City’s vulnerability to severe windstorms.
It is unlikely that severe wind will affect land use and development because the development review process will take steps to mitigate or minimize the impacts of severe wind. There is the potential that older structures in the city may be impacted more severely than newer structures in the city. Potential damage to overhead powerlines and mature trees, and older structures may not comply with current building codes.
EXTREME HEAT
There could be minor changes in population patterns due to extreme heat if people cannot continue to live in older structures with limited insulation and older cooling units. The anticipated population growth in San Bernardino is not expected to significantly impact the City’s vulnerability to extreme heat. It is unlikely that extreme heat will affect land use and development because the development review process will take steps to mitigate or minimize impacts . However, it is possible that additional inves tment will occur in older parts of the city to modify structures to handle these conditions.
D
ROUGHT
Droughts occur periodically (primarily during the Summer/Fall months) and generally do not affect populations to the degree that they would need to migrate in and out of the city The anticipated population growth in San Bernardino is unlikely to have any significant effect on population growth.
It is unlikely that drought will affect land use and development because the development review process will take steps to mitigate or minimize the impacts and vulnerability of drought in San Bernardino.
Wildfire
DESCRIPTION
Wildfires are fires that burn in largely undeveloped and natural areas and are a regular feature of ecosystems throughout California. These fires help to clear brush and debris from natural areas and are necessary for the health of many ecosystems and various species' life cycle s. However, since the early twentieth century, the common practice was to suppress naturally occurring fires in wildland areas, allowing dry plant matter and other fuels to build up.
At the same time, human activity has caused changes in the buffer zone between urbanized and undeveloped areas, known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI). The more natural setting of a WUI can make these zones highly desirable places to live. In many parts of California, the WUIs have become developed, albeit at lower densities than fully urbanized areas. However, this development activity has brought more people into wildfire-prone areas. The availability of fuel and increasing encroachment into the WUI, together with a changing climate, have made wildfires among California's most common and dangerous natural hazards.
Lightning, accidents, or arson can spark wildfires. The size and severity of any fire depend on fuel, weather conditions, and topography availability. However, wildfires in the WUI do not need to be large to be damaging. In Oakland, the 1991 Tunnel Fire wa s relatively small, only 1,600 acres, but was the third deadliest and third most destructive wildfire in California history. The flames from wildfires create severe risks to property and lives. Smoke and other particulate matter from wildfires pose a health risk, even to those not near the blaze. Burned areas can be more susceptible to flooding and landslides because
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82 wildfires destroy the vegetation that helps slow down water runoff and hold slopes together. The ground may repel water rather than absorb it when faced with ash deposits. Due to the change in the landscape structure after a fire, repelled water can carry debris into water reservoirs.
LOCATION AND EXTENT
Wildfires are not measured on a specific scale and are usually classified by size (e.g., acres burned) or impact (buildings destroyed or damaged, injuries or deaths, cost of damage, etc.). The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) classified the wildfire hazard on a three-tier scale of fire hazard severity zones (FHSZs): very high, high, and moderate. These zone classifications do not correspond to a specific risk or intensity of the fire but are qualitative terms that consider many factors.
Fire-prone areas are also classified by the agency responsible for fire protection. Federal Responsibility Area (FRA) falls to federal agencies such as the US Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the National Park Service. State R esponsibilities Area (SRA), which includes unincorporated land within counties with statewide watershed value, falls to the Cal Fire. Local Responsibility Area (LRA), which includes portions of incorporated cities with identified wildfire hazard zones, falls to local governments.
Due to the San Bernardino Mountains foothill topography, San Bernardino has a susceptibility to and a long history of dealing with wildfires. The community extends into the undeveloped hillside areas/mountains to the north of the city, adjacent to the San Bernardino National Forests. Wildfires present a significant threat to the City, and the County, as it is a region of relatively high temperatures, low humidity, and low precipitation during the summer. This long summer season is followed by a fall season famous for high velocity and arid winds originating from the desert (Santa Ana winds). Figure 3-13 identifies the historic wildfire perimeters between 1900 and 2020 in and around the city. In addition, Figure 3-14 identifies the fire hazard zones within the City and surrounding areas. The zones depicted include areas of the national forest (FRA), areas within unincorporated San Bernardino County (SRA), and the San Bernardino Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), which i ncludes the LRA within the jurisdictional boundaries of the San Bernardino County Fire Protection District.
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83 Figure 3-13: Historic Wildfire Perimeters
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84 Figure 3-14: Fire Hazard Severity Zones
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85 PAST EVENTS
Table 3-31 describes past wildfire events affecting San Bernardino.
RISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
The history of wildfires in San Bernardino County and San Bernardino and the presence of development within the City’s WUI, which includes very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZ), indicates that wildfire events are likely in the future. Since 19 80, three major wildfire events have affected the City. This risk is expected to remain highest in the undeveloped land in the foothills within both the City and the unincorporated areas of the Fire Protection District, as well as National Forest lands that border the City and SOI.
From 1956 to 2023 , 260 fire incidents in California resulted in a Major Disaster Declaration, Emergency Declaration, or Fire Management Assistance Declaration from FEMA. The most destructive and deadliest fire in the state’s history is the 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, which destroyed nearly 19,000 structures and killed 85 people. The year 2020 was also a highly destructive wildfire season, with five of the six largest fires in the state's history totaling nearly 2.5 million acres.
The fire risk assessment shows that the City's area with the highest risk level is in the north, along the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). New construction within WUI areas is required to comply with the California Building Code and the California Residential Code, including requirements for fire retardant or ignition-resistant construction materials at roofs, eaves, vents, exterior walls, exterior windows, doors, and decks. California Government Code Section 51182 also requires buildings within these areas to provide defensible space.
Table 3-31: Historic Wildfires in San Bernardino
Year Name Acres
Burned
Description
11/24/1980 Panorama
Fire
28,800
acres
That deadly blaze burned 23,800 acres, destroyed about 280 homes, and damaged 49 others. Some 60-plus other structures were also damaged or destroyed. Four civilian deaths and 77 injuries were attributed to the Panorama Fire. This fire started near the top of Waterman Canyon and was spread across the foothills by the merciless winds.
11/2/2003 Old Fire
(Grand
Prix)
91,281
acres
This Santa Ana wind-driven fire burned over 91,000 acres within San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties. In total, the fires destroyed 975 buildings and killed six people. The total cost associated with fire response and suppression activities totaled over $1.2 billion in 2003 dollars.
8/16/2016 Blue Cut
Fire
36,274
acres
The Blue Cut Fire began as a small brush fire in the Cajon Pass. IT immediately escalated to a large fire, consuming 18,000 acres in a matter of hours due to the dry hillsides, extreme heat temperatures that peaked at 102°F, and gusty winds of up to 45 mph. By the following morning, the fire had consumed 30,000 acres, peaking at 36,274 acres by the time it was contained one week later. The fire destroyed 105 homes and 213 other structures and ranks as the 20th most destructive wildfire in state history.
Source: City of San Bernardino. 2016 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan.
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86 CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
Climate change is expected to cause an increase in temperatures and more frequent and intense drought conditions. This increase will likely increase the amount of dry plant matter available for fuel, increasing wildfire risk statewide. In the foothills of the San Bernardino Mountains, which are already highly prone to wildfires, climate change is expected to increase the number of acres burned annually. However, increases in fuel supplies could cause wildfires to move faster or spread into more developed areas, increasing the future threat to San Bernardino.
PHYSICAL THREAT
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has mapped Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones (VHFHSZ) within the City’s Local Responsibility Area (LRA). The LRA is a government-designated area where a local agency, city, or county, NOT the Sta te, is responsible for fire protection. An SRA is the opposite, where the State has responsibility for wildland fire protection. Figure 3-14 identifies these zones and the City’s CFs and FOCs within the area. All structures within this fire zone are at an elevated risk of wildfire impacts.
All structures located within this zone are at an elevated risk of wildfire impacts. Table 3-32 identifies 0 CFs and 7 FOC within the wildfire hazard zone , resulting in a potential loss of approximately $5 million based on available replacement values. Additional losses associated with the schools in these areas could also occur.
While these areas have a high degree of vulnerability to wildfire, other areas of the City may also be susceptible to ember cast. These areas , typically referred to as the WUI (Wildland Urban Interface), are vulnerable if the right conditions exist. Typically, the WUI is impacted if adequate fuels are combined with dry conditions and strong winds. Sometimes , the ignition of a wildfire may occur if power lines around overgrown trees cause a spark and catch the tree on fire. These incidents are the main impetus for the recently established PSPS program throughout the State.
Table 3-32: Critical Facilities and Facilities of Concern (Wildfire) Category Number of Facilities Potential Loss**
Critical Concern
City Facilities 0 0 -
Schools 0 3 -
Park Facilities, Recreation Centers 0 4 $5,019,300
Other Facilities 0 0 -
Total 0 7 $5,019,300
*Potential loss data are estimates only, as replacement values for some facilities were not available. Actual losses may be greater than the estimate presented in this table.
** Based on the City of San Bernardino insured replacement values *** Fire Services to the City are provided by San Bernardino County Fire District
S
OCIAL THREAT
Outside of the property owners directly impacted by a wildfire event, wildfires can also impact seniors and persons with disabilities. These groups may have limited mobility, be immuno-compromised, and/or
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87 not receive notifications regarding current conditions and evacuation requirements. For example, a senior who lives alone may not be aware that a wildfire is burning close to their residence, and they have been ordered to evacuate if those notifications were sent in a manner that does not reach them. Persons with disabilities may require special mobility devices or caregiver assistance to go outside, which may not arrive as quickly as needed. Other groups with increased threat levels include people with low er incomes, renters, and the homeless. These groups may not have enough financial resources to rebuild or search for new homes after a fire. Table 3-33 identifies the populations threatened by wildfire. Based on this analysis, these residents have a median income that is approximately $5,700 higher than the city -wide figure and a lesser proportion of households with one member aged 65+ and persons living with a disability. Based on this, households in this part of the City would be considered more resilient to wildfire impacts, given the lower percentage living under the poverty limit and a significant increase in median household income compared to city-wide statistics.
The health effects associated with wildfires can also be very detrimental to a community. As wildfires in California become larger and more intense, there is a greater potential for smoke production. Chronic exposure to particulates generated during a wild fire can cause health outcomes ranging from eye and respiratory tract irritation to more serious disorders, including reduced lung function, bronchitis, asthma and heart failure exacerbation , and premature death. Children, pregnant women, and the elderly a re especially vulnerable to smoke exposure. Emissions from wildfires are known to cause increased visits to hospitals and clinics by those exposed to smoke.
A study of the 2003 wildfires in southern California concluded that wildfire -related particulate matter (PM) (2.5) led to increased respiratory hospital admissions, especially asthma, suggesting that better preventive measures are required to reduce morbidity among vulnerable populations . With the expectation that wildfire incidents will increase in size and severity in the future, it will be important to understand how the City can assist residents with poor air quality during wildfires occurring throughout the region.
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THER THREATS
Other threats associated with wildfires may involve the loss of electricity (PSPS) or other utilities, evacuation of areas potentially threatened, or the health effects of wildfires located near the City or Table 3-33: Wildfire Threatened Populations
Threatened Population Metric VHFHSZ City of San
Bernardino
Population 100,993 221,116
Households 31,737 66,156
Median household income $58,019 $52,321
Renter Occupied Households 16.1% 15.2%
Percentage of households with at least one person living with a disability 2.86% 9.1% Percentage of households living under the poverty limit 6.57% 21.0% Percentage of households with one member aged 65+ 2.95% 9.4%
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88 throughout the region. Loss of utility services can impact vulnerable populations to a greater degree if they rely on the service for medical reasons (oxygen, dialysis, etc.) or to ensure adequate heating/cooling occurs. Wildfire events generally occur when the weather is hot and dry. These weather conditions place a high demand on air conditioning, especially for those whose health conditions are worsened by extreme heat. During these conditions, the loss of power can place a greater strain on vulnerable residents, especially those who cannot supply their own backup power or afford to relocate during the power disruption.
CHANGES IN POPULATION PATTERNS AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT If a large wildfire were to occur, it is feasible that changes to population patterns could fluctuate. Future land use designations, redevelopment, or new development in these areas could be restricted or even prohibited, especially in the WUI and the VHFHSZs. The anticipated population growth in the City is not expected to significantly impact San Bernardino’s vulnerability to wildfire.
Hazardous Materials Release
DESCRIPTION
Hazardous materials release refers to a hazard event whereby harmful concentrations of hazardous or toxic substances are released into the environment. This occurs when storage containers of hazardous materials leak or fail. It can happen due to industrial accidents, vehicle crashes, as a direct result of other disasters (e.g., a flood or earthquake), or as a deliberate act.
The threat that hazardous materials pose to human health depends on the type of material, frequency, and duration of exposure, and whether chemicals are inhaled, penetrate the skin, or are ingested, among other factors. Exposure to hazardous materials can result in short - or long-term effects, including major damage to organs and systems in the body or
death. Hazardous waste is any material with
properties that make it dangerous or potentially
harmful to human health or the environment.
Hazardous materials can also cause health risks if
they contaminate soil, groundwater, and air,
potentially posing a threat long after the initial
release.
As part of this analysis, the City also identified the
potential environmental justice issues associated
with hazardous materials. The mapping prepared in
this analysis uses the CalEnviroScreen data set from
the California Environmental Protection Agency
Table 3-34: San Bernardino Spill Release
Reporting
Year Reported Releases
2010 74
2011 121
2012 250
2013 194
2014 56
2015 43
2016 74
2017 72
2018 80
2019 125
2020 101
2021 50
2022 74
2023 26
Annual Avg 95.71
Source: https://www.caloes.ca.gov/cal-oes-divisions/fire- rescue/hazardous-materials/spill-release-reporting
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89 (Cal EPA). 41 This dataset helps identify California communities most affected by many pollution sources and where people are often especially vulnerable to pollution. The dataset uses environmental, health, and socioeconomic information to produce scores for every census tract in the state that is mapped using a scale based on the location's pollution burden. The higher the percentage, the greater the burden and the higher the likelihood of environmental justice concerns.
LOCATION AND EXTENT
Hazardous materials and chemicals are used daily in households and businesses throughout San Bernardino. In addition to the locations of large industrial uses, sources of hazardous materials can originate from seemingly harmless places such as service stations, dry cleaners, medical centers, and almost any industrial business. Hazardous waste can take the f orm of liquids, solids, contained gases, or sludge and can be the by-products of manufacturing processes or simply discarded commercial products, like cleaning fluids and pesticides.
In severe situations, San Bernardino may also be at risk of hazardous materials release events regionally.
With the right prevailing wind conditions, airborne toxic material could spread to and impact various parts of the air basin, including the San Bernardino area.
PAST EVENTS
San Bernardino has experienced an average of 103 hazardous materials spills annually (2010 -2021), reported to the Cal OES Spill Release Reporting database. Most of these incidents involve sewage and petroleum products. Table 3-34 identifies the yearly releases reported to Cal OES during this period.
RISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
Most release events within San Bernardino have occurred due to human error, malfunctioning equipment, or deliberate acts. Given this, future events within the City are anticipated to include incidents like the past occurrences identified. Based on the historical average data provided by Cal OES in Table 3-34, the City can expect approximately eight reported spills per month.
CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
Climate-related natural hazard events, such as an intense flood, could cause hazardous material releases.
These releases could occur due to traffic accidents associated with inclement weather, flooded roadway conditions, or leakage from storage containers due to intense weather events. Climate- related hazards could also exacerbate the effects and impacts of such events. For example, heavier rains could lead to more runoff from contaminated sites. Extreme heat could affect the storage of hazardous materials and is also a concern for the combustibility of these materials. These issues should be monitored during the 5-year implementation period of this plan.
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HYSICAL THREAT
If released into the environment, hazardous materials can damage physical assets in San Bernardino .
Corrosive hazardous materials can damage the exteriors of buildings or structures. Flammable hazardous
41 California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment. 2018. CalEnviroScreen 3.0 (updated June 2018). https://oehha.ca.gov/calenviroscreen/report/calenviroscreen-30
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90 materials can be ignited and cause damage to nearby structures. Generally, sites closer to the origin of the release of the hazardous materials are more at risk than those further away.
SOCIAL THREAT
The threat of a hazardous materials release event affects those closest to a source of hazardous materials, including industrial sites, gas stations, gas transmission lines, or sewer mains. San Bernardino residents living next to major transportation infrastructure such as highways or major roadways also face a greater risk of being affected by a hazardous materials release if vehicles transporting these materials accidentally release their contents into the environment. Groups such as the elderly, low- income, and renters face a greater risk of exposure since they may not have the financial resources necessary to retrofit their homes against infiltration by hazardous materials or relocate to a home farther from the potential sources of hazardous materials.
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THER THREATS
Hazardous materials release could threaten the city and regional transportation networks. Portions of the local road or rail networks may be closed to prevent people from entering areas contaminated with hazardous materials to allow remediation and cleanup activities to occur. If a highly corrosive hazardous material is released, it could cause significant damage to the exteriors of homes or businesses in the area or require evacuation. A similar issue occurred recently in Perris, CA , where hundreds of residents were required to evacuate their homes and businesses due to a release event. The City may experience additional personnel-related costs to coordinate the evacuation of a large area.
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HANGES IN POPULATION AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT
A change in population pattern would only occur if a hazardous materials release was severe enough to require people to move. It is unlikely that hazardous materials release will affect land use and development because the development review process will take steps to mitigate or minimize impacts from a hazardous materials release event. Locations that store, produce, and dispose of hazardous materials are highly regulated within the city and monitored regularly. It is not anticipated that land use and development patterns will change through this process and the development review process . The anticipated population growth in the City is not expected to significantly impact San Bernardin o’s vulnerability to hazardous materials release.
Human-Caused Hazards (Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incident, Cyber Threat, Civil Unrest)
DESCRIPTION
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
Terrorism is the use or threat of force to achieve a particular social or political outcome. The goals of terrorism may sometimes be overturning a government, reversing a public policy, releasing political prisoners, and other such motives. Acts of terror may overlap with acts of war or hate crimes. Generally, terrorism involves an attempt to kill or seriously harm people or disrupt civil society by destroying property or infrastructure, attacking government operatio ns at all levels, interrupting essential public services, creating chaos, or a combination of some or all these goals. Firearms and explosives are the most common weapons used among terrorists. In extreme situations, terrorists may gain access to mass destruction weapons, including bioweapons, ch emical agents, radioactive materials, or high -yield explosives. It should be noted that these events are infrequent. While incidents of terror caused by foreign
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91 individuals or groups receive significant media and public attention, most acts of terror in the United States have been caused by domestic terrorists.
A mass casualty incident describes an incident within the United States where emergency medical services resources, such as personnel and equipment, are overwhelmed by the number and severity of casualties.
The more commonly recognized events of this type include building collapses, train and bus collisions, plane crashes, earthquakes, and other large -scale emergencies. The most common types are generally caused by terrorism, mass transportation accidents, or natural disasters. Events such as the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 , the September 11 attacks in 2001 , and the 201 7 Las Vegas Shooting are well- publicized examples of mass casualty incidents.
CYBER THREAT
Cyber threats are when an individual or a group threatens or attempts to disrupt the operations and functioning of computer systems belonging to private citizens, religious groups, educational institutions, government agencies, or businesses. These threats include online harassment, hacking, or in -person tampering with electronic equipment. Successful cyber threats can lead to service disruptions, infrastructure damage, and theft and may cause injury or death in severe instances.
CIVIL UNREST
Civil unrest is an event when the normal operations of the city are either threatened or temporarily interrupted by violent protests, riots, shootings, and armed standoffs. Civil unrest can occur at a single time or be a string of related events. Property damage to businesses, government facilities, or homes can occur during these events. In extreme situations, death and injury may result from civil unrest.
LOCATION AND EXTENT
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
Mass Casualty Incidents can occur anywhere, although public spaces and locations where many people congregate (parks, schools, places of worship, government facilities, shopping centers, and public gathering areas ) are most common. Critical locations in San Bernardino may be the San Bernardino International Airport, event centers (i.e., National Orange Show Event Center), government facilities (i.e., City Hall), universities and colleges (California State University San Bernardino), schools, medical facilities, parks, and large employers within the city.
Acts of terrorism may occur at the locations listed above; however, perpetrators may also choose high - value targets such as electric-generating facilities, water treatment plants, dams or reservoirs, railroads, highways, and other facilities that could impact governmental operations and services. Mass Casualty Incidents and acts of terrorism are typically measured by the fatalities, injuries, and destruction they cause, but there is no universally used scale for measuring these events.
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YBER THREAT
Since computers are so ubiquitous, a cyber threat could appear in virtually any part of the City. In extreme circumstances, a threat could impact the entire city. Cyber threats vary in their length and severity of impact. A minor threat could cause computer systems to slow down for a few minutes and not behave as responsively. On the other hand, a major cyber threat could cause a complete shutdown of critical systems, including those used by banks, healthcare insti tutions, universities, major businesses, an d city governments.
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92 Cyber threats are not measured on any scale, but they can be assessed by determining the following:
• The type of incident (website defacement, denial of service, unauthorized surveillance) • The use of malicious software
• The level of security countermeasures that failed to prevent the cyber threat • The duration of the cyber threat (a few hours, a few days, several weeks, etc.)42
Globally, cyber threats are increasing and becoming more sophisticated. The most common types of attacks include:
• Phishing
• Ransomware
• Intellectual Property Theft
• Spyware/Malware
• Unpatched Software
The Index of Cyber Security (Figure 3- 15) can be referenced to understand the status of cyber threats , which identifies the measure of perceived risk. Since 2015, this index has trended upward and appears to have doubled in this timeframe.
Figure 3-15: Index of Cyber Security
42 Mateski, M., C. Trevino, C. Veitch, J. Michalski, J. Harris, S. Maruoka, and J. Frye. 2012. “Cyber Threat Metrics.” Sandia National Laboratories. https://fas.org/irp/eprint/metrics.pdf.
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93 CIVIL UNREST
Civil unrest can arise at any time and place for various reasons. There are, however, some places where such events are more likely to emerge, including local, state, and federal government centers, jails, police stations, major businesses, university campuses, and places of public assembly. Many locations list ed in the Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incident description above would also be locations for these types of incidents.
No definitive scale for measuring civil unrest events exists, but several metrics may be used individually to determine a civil unrest event’s impact. These measures include:
• Number of facilities affected
• Number of fatalities
• Monetary loss
• Interruptions to communications infrastructure
• Number of people protesting
• Impacts to certain socioeconomic groups 43 44
PAST EVENTS
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
Unfortunately, the city has experienced a terrorism/mass casualty incident in the recent past. On December 2, 2015, two shooters (a married couple) entered the Inland Regional Center during a training event and began shooting. This incident resulted in 14 people killed and 22 injured. Authorities determined this was a deliberate act of terrorism.45
The following are other acts of terrorism/ mass casualty incident events that have occurred within San Bernardino County, California, and the Country:
• 1970 - Bombing of the Stanford Research Institute facility, which caused approximately $500,000 in property damage. No injuries or deaths occurred during this incident.46 • 1970 - Bombing of a Bank of America Branch, which caused approximately $500,000 in property damage. No injuries or deaths occurred during this incident.47 • April 1995 - Timothy McVeigh detonated a bomb outside the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, OK. The blast was so powerful that the Federal Building was destroyed, and more than 300 nearby buildings were damaged or destroyed. The bombing killed 168 people, including 19 children. Timothy McVeigh’s motive for bombing the Federal Building was to inspire a revolution against the federal government.
48 • September 11, 2001 -Terrorists hijacked four commercial airliners. The hijackers flew two planes into the Twin Towers at the World Trade Center in New York City and one into the Pentagon in
43 Renn, O., et al. 2011. “Social Unrest.” Organization for Economic Co-operation on Development. 14 January. https://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/46890018.pdf
44Cal OES (California Office of Emergency Services). 2018. 2018 State of California Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan. https://www.caloes.ca.gov/cal- oes-divisions/hazard-mitigation/hazard-mitigation-planning/state-hazard-mitigation-plan 45 Braziel, Rick, Frank Straub, George Watson, and Rod Hoops. “Bringing Calm to Chaos: A Critical Incident Review of the San Ber nardino Public Safety Response to the December 2, 2015, Terrorist Shooting Incident at the Inland Regional Center .” United States Department of Justice, 2016. https://cops.usdoj.gov/RIC/Publications/cops-w0808-pub.pdf. 46 Global Terrorism Database. 2020. “1970-10-18”. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=197010180001 47 Global Terrorism Database. 2020. “1970-10-26”. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/IncidentSummary.aspx?gtdid=197010260001 48 Federal Bureau of Investigation. Famous Cases and Criminals. https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/oklahoma-city-bombing
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94 Arlington, VA. The fourth plane crashed in a field in rural Pennsylvania. The attacks on 9/11 killed 2,976 people and injured thousands more. 49
• April 15, 2013 - Two bombs detonated near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. The explosion killed 3 spectators and wounded more than 264 other people. Police captured 19- year-old Dzhokhar Tsarnaev in connection with the bombing; the second suspect, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, died following a shootout with law enforcement. Investigators concluded that the Tsarnaev brothers planned and carried out the attack independently and were not connected to any specific terrorist group. 50
• 2014 - A teenager who had reportedly threatened terrorist action against the U.S. Open of Surfing event attendees was arrested. 51
• May 2015 - Two Anaheim-based men were arrested at a Transportation Security Administration checkpoint at the Los Angeles International Airport who had reportedly sworn allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). One of these men, Muhanad Badawi, was a student at Fullerton College. 52
• October 2017 - Stephen Paddock opened fire on the Route 91 Harvest Festival concert from an elevated position at the Mandalay Bay Hotel in Las Vegas. The attack resulted in 58 people killed and 851 injured. Paddock shot and killed himself before responding officers reached him. The FBI Behavioral Analysis Unit determined no clear motivation for the attack. Although this attack did not occur in California, many California residents were affected, as more than half of the 58 people killed were from California.
53 • May 2022 – Payton S. Gendron opened fire with an illegally modified semi-automatic rifle at the Tops grocery store in Buffalo, New York. Ten people were killed, and three were wounded in the attack. Gendron pleaded guilty to terrorism and murder charges in the attack and was sentenced to life without the chance of parole. According to a document written by Gendron, the shooting was racially motivated, and he chose the location because it was in a particular area of the city that had the highest percentage of African Americans.54
CYBER THREAT
The City of San Bernardino has not experienced any cyber incidents negatively impacting public services or safety. However, several jurisdictions in southern California and across the country have. Several recent incidents local to the City include:
• April 2023 – The San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department was hit with a cyberattack that likely started after someone clicked a malicious hyperlink. The Department recovered the data but shut down most of its systems, including email, internet , and many computers in its vehicles, out of precaution. County officials did not say if they paid a ransom for the data.55
49 Federal Bureau of Investigation. Famous Cases and Criminals. https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/911-investigation 50 History.com Editors. June 2019. Boston Marathon Bombing. https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/boston-marathon-bombings 51 Connelly, L., and S. Emery. 2014. “Teen Arrested for Terrorist Threats Toward US Open.” Orange County Register. July 26. 52 Winton, R. 2016. “Two O.C. Men Convicted of Conspiring to Fight with Islamic State.” Los Angeles Times. June 21. 53 Los Angeles Times Staff. “Las Vegas Shooting Victims: Portraits of the Fallen.” October 2017. https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-na-las- vegas-shoot
54 Morales, M., Levenson, E., and Sgueglia, K. “Buffalo Grocery Store Mass Shooter Pleads to Terrorism and Murder Charges in Racist Attack. ” CNN. November 2022. https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/28/us/buffalo-tops-grocery-shooting-payton-gendron-plea/index.html 55 McMillan, Rob. “San Bernardino County Sheriff's Department Shuts down Internet Systems Following Recent Cyberattack.” ABC7 Los Angeles, April 23, 2023. https://abc7.com/san-bernardino-cyberattack-ransomware-hyperlink/13176620/.
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95 • December 2019 - The Cucamonga Valley Water District disclosed a data breach between August 26, 2019, and October 14, 2019. The breach occurred on a server used to accept one-time credit card payments from customers.
• October 2019 – Hackers infected San Bernardino City Unified School District servers with ransomware. The ransomware attack locked faculty and staff out of their emails and forced classes to proceed without Wi-Fi and other technology-based tools. Officials did not disclose the demands of the attackers.
56 In addition, other recent, notable cybersecurity events in the US include the Colonial Pipeline incident, JBS (the world’s largest meatpacker), and the Washington DC Metropolitan Police Department. These attacks have resulted in the shutdown or delay in critical services and functions , increasing the cost of goods/services, financial losses, and operational delays.
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IVIL UNREST
The following is a list of recent civil disturbances/riots:
• May 31, 20 20 – What started as a protest over the death of George Floyd ended in rioting and looting that destroyed and vandalized businesses throughout the city. The gathering turned increasingly violent, and the San Bernardino Police Department announced a curfew that went into effect at 8 p.m. and lasted until sunrise the next day. 57 RISK OF FUTURE EVENTS
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
Given that mass casualty incidents and acts of terrorism stem from a variety of factors: economics, societal pressures, mental health, global geopolitics, warfare, religion, etc. —it is impossible to predict when an d where an incident could occur. It is anticipated that any future incidents would likely originate domestically and are less likely to attract the attention of international terrorist groups. Incidents of these types are more likely to be conducted by smaller organizations or individuals aligned with greater-known organizations, although the effects may be no less significant. Given the presence of this facility as well as a convention center, sports arena, large shopping center, numerous schools, and large employers within the city, the potential does exist for mass-casualty incidents/acts of terrorism.
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YBER THREAT
Due to the integrated nature of technology into the everyday lives of San Bernardino ’s residents, businesses, and government operations, it is possible that a cyber threat could emerge in the future. While no cyber threats are publicly known to have disrupted the City’s normal operations in the past, the likelihood of a cyber threat affec ting the residents, businesses, and/or governmental operations in the future is increasing.
56 Licas, Eric. “Hackers Hit San Bernardino School District with Ransomware Attack.” San Bernardino Sun. San Bernardino Sun, October 21, 2019. https://www.sbsun.com/2019/10/20/hackers-hit-san-bernardino-school-district-with-ransomware-attack/. 57 Atley, Richard K. De, and Joe Nelson. “San Bernardino Police Order Curfew after George Floyd Protest.” San Bernardino Sun. San Bernardino Sun, June 1, 2020. https://www.sbsun.com/2020/05/31/hundreds-march-through-downtown-san-bernardino-in-george-floyd-protest/.
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96 CIVIL UNREST
While civil disturbance events may be rare, there is still a possibility that they could occur in the future.
Given that several recent civil disturbance events have occurred in the city, it is safe to assess that similar events could emerge in the future.
For all of these hazards, the combined future probability is greater than 90% each year, mainly due in part to the threat of cyber intrusion. This occurs on an ongoing basis. However, recent civil disturbance incidents during the COVID pandemic highlight the prevalence of this thr eat to the City. While terrorist/mass-casualty incidents are considered a low probability threat, due to the 2015 mass casualty incident and the City having several locations that could be targeted for these types of activities, there is an increase in concern associated with this type of incident.
CLIMATE CHANGE CONSIDERATIONS
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
The link between mass casualty incidents/terrorism and climate change is not well understood. It has been suggested, however, that the impacts of a changing climate may exacerbate existing social, political, religious, and ethnic tensions. For example, lon ger, more intense droughts may restrict food supply or place limits on economic growth for cities, regions, or even whole countries. Nevertheless, the likelihood of climate change impacting mass casualty incidents/acts of terrorism in San Bernardino is negligible since these changes are more likely to impact developments on the national or international level.
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YBER THREAT
Climate change is not likely to impact cyber threats in the future within San Bernardino.
CIVIL UNREST
Climate change is not likely to impact future civil disturbances in San Bernardino.
PHYSICAL THREAT
TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
There is no way to predict which of San Bernardino’s facilities or assets may be impacted by an act of terrorism since the motivation behind the incident is often complex and not easily understood. Generally, these incidents occur at places of political, economic, or cultural importance. If the perpetrator's motives are to shut down city or regional government activity for a period, they may instead target pieces of infrastructure, like water systems, utility delivery systems, or transportation networks. The financial losses that may result from this type of incident would depend on the degree of destruction associated with the activity. If the incident involves the destruction of physical assets, the cost to the City or property owners in San Bernardino could be significant.
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YBER THREAT
Cyber threats would have a limited impact on physical assets. The extent of this impact would focus on City-owned computer and network infrastructure.
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IVIL UNREST
Like mass-casualty incidents, civil disturbance threats to physical assets are hard to predict. Typically, these incidents involve protests, marches, or celebrations that can become destructive or violent incidents (i.e., riots), causing property damage. Impacts associated with these incidents would likely initiate at the site of origin, which usually occurs at places of political, economic, or cultural importance.
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TERRORISM/MASS CASUALTY INCIDENT
Since mass casualty incidents/acts of terrorism could occur anywhere in San Bernardino, all groups are potentially threatened by the impacts of these incidents; however, the extent of the threat would depend upon the type and magnitude of the event. For example, an active shooter situation may be isolated to a single location, whereas a larger- scale incident may affect multiple locations. Some locations are more likely to be targeted than others, including but not limited to medical facilities, government b uildings, financial institutions, San Bernardino International Airport, and the National Orange Show Event Center.
Populations that frequently visit these areas may face a greater threat than the average person. Seniors, pregnant women, and persons with di sabilities, for instance, are more likely to frequently visit the local hospitals than other subpopulations in the city. If an incident occurs at the hospital or within the community (overwhelming hospital resources), these groups are expected to face an i ncreased impact from the incident.
An incident at a government building or financial institution may be more likely to threaten seniors or lower-income individuals relying on in-person transactions instead of online options. As such, their use of these in-person services may place them in harm’s way. An incident at San Bernardino City Hall or bank locations in the city can be expected to be more of a threat to these groups. Seniors and persons with limited income may be challenged if there is a need to shelter in place or evacuate during an incident requiring additional services, assistance, and/or medical treatment.
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YBER THREAT
Cyber threats may have an impact on residents and businesses throughout the City. While most cyber threats focus on large entities like major corporations and/or government agencies, all residents could become victims of cyber threats. If services affected by cyber incidents become delayed or are impacted, populations that rely on those services may be negatively impacted if no alternatives exist.
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IVIL UNREST
Since civil disturbance could occur anywhere in San Bernardino , all groups are potentially threatened by the impacts of these incidents. While most residents affected by a civil disturbance would be able to recover from the incident, residents on fixed incomes or living below the poverty limit may have difficulty doing so if damage to their residence or property were to occur.
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THER THREAT
CYBER THREATS
The greatest impact a cyber threat could present to the City itself would be a complete shutdown of city services and programs. Electricity, gas lines, and water could be shut off for extended periods if a cyber threat compromised the control systems. Additionally, control over streetlights, traffic lights, and railroad crossings could be lost. To the average citizen, personal information, identity, and financial records could be stolen. As society becomes more and more technologically ingrained/dependent, the ever -evolving category of cyber threats will continue to change and grow in possible impact.
CHANGES IN POPULATION PATTERNS AND LAND USE DEVELOPMENT The hazards identified under human -caused hazards will not affect population patterns or land use and development, as no connection can be drawn between these hazards and changes in population patterns or land use and development.
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99 Chapter 4 – Hazard Mitigation Strategy
Strategy Development Process
San Bernardino’s hazard mitigation strategy is a comprehensive set of actions intended to reduce hazard events' impacts. These hazard mitigation actions will help to protect the safety and well-being of residents and visitors, CFs and FOC, other buildings and structures, key services, the local economy, and other important community assets. Some actions will also help with emergency preparedness, allowing for a more effective community response to hazard events. Preparedness actions are not required for an LHMP, but they support and complement mitigation activities . The HMPC included them as part of the overall hazard mitigation strategy.
Use of Hazard and Threat Assessment
The HMPC relied in part on the hazard profiles and threat assessments in this Plan to develop the actions in the mitigation strategy. A comprehensive set of mitigation actions that respond to the relevant hazard situations and protect San Bernardino residents, businesses, and community assets were prepared. The HMPC ensured that the mitigation actions would help reduce damage from the most frequent types of hazard events, the most significant that may reasonably occur, and those with the greatest potential to harm the community. The HMPC also drafted mitigation actions that will help protect the community's most vulnerable members and local assets.
Capabilities Assessment
As part of the effort to draft mitigation actions, the City completed a capabilities assessment, which included a review of existing policies, personnel, and technical resources that can support hazard mitigation activities in San Bernardino. The hazard mitigation actions build off the existing success of these resources and leverage their capabilities to support improved resiliency in the community. The capabilities assessment looked at the following types of resources:
• Personnel resources: City employees and volunteers, and employees and volunteers at other agencies
• Plan resource: Advisory or enforceable plans adopted by the City or other agencies. • Policy resource: Policies adopted and implemented by the City or other agencies • Technical resource: Data and tools available to the City • Financial resource: Funding mechanisms available to the City that support mitigation activities
Capabilities Improvement/Expansion
The ability to expand current mitigation capabilities will generally be reliant upon the budgeting allocated for each department/program for that fiscal year. The level at which these programs may or may not be expanded upon will depend on the amount of funding received. FEMA has released a series of guides over the past few years highlighting some ways jurisdictions can expand mitigation. Some strategies for increasing current mitigation capabilities may include:
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1. The City should actively identify, adopt, and enforce the most current set of development codes and standards available. Strongly encouraging new developments to be constructed to higher standards than currently required increases community resilience.
2. Engaging parts of the community that may not be actively involved in mitigation efforts.
3. Expanding the number and types of organizations involved in mitigation planning and implementation increases efficiency and bandwidth.
4. Fostering new relationships to bring underrepresented populations and partners to the hazard mitigation planning process.
5. During the annual LHMP review, the HMPC should look for opportunities to fund and expand/enhance the effectiveness of current mitigation actions.
6. During annual budgeting processes, the City should identify new funding sources (bonds, grants, assessment districts, etc.) that can be used to support existing capabilities enhancements.
Tables 4-1a-d show the capabilities assessment for San Bernardino . Within each resource described , a section titled “Expansion and Improvement ” is provided, which help s the City recognize specific areas where each capability may be modified to align with mitigation priorities and actions to be taken in the future.
Table 4-1a: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Local Legal and Regulatory Capabilities
Resource Name Version/
Date
Hazards
Addressed
Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation)
San Bernardino
2050 (General
Plan) Safety
Element
2050 /
Pending
Adoption
All The 2050 Plan identifies potential hazards:
• Provides background on the history of hazards and the likelihood of future changes to these hazards.
• Provides policies that increase the resilience of residents, businesses, workers, and visitors.
• Provides policies to reduce the level of property loss due to a potential disaster.
• Provides a framework for emergency management.
Expansion and Improvement: The HMP will be informed by referencing the Safety Element of the General Plan. The City will adopt the approved HMP as part of the General Plan Safety Element to meet the requirements of AB 2140.
San Bernardino
2050 (General
Plan) Land Use
Element
2050 /
Pending
Adoption
Seismic, Fire,
Flood, Wind
The Land Use Element is a guide to the ultimate development pattern for the city, both within its incorporated boundaries and sphere of influence. The Land Use Element:
• Designates the distribution, location, and balance of land uses. • Describes the desired build-out of San Bernardino
• Describes building intensity standards for each land use. • Communicates population density.
• Ensures compatibility between land uses.
The draft Land Use Plan may be found at the following
link: https://futuresb2050.com/project-overview/proposed-land-use- plan/
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Table 4-1a: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Local Legal and Regulatory Capabilities
Resource Name Version/
Date
Hazards
Addressed
Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation)
Expansion and Improvement: Focus on balancing community needs and ensuring compatibility of uses and development patterns.
California
Standards
Building Code
2022 Seismic, Fire,
Flood, Wind
The California Building Standards Code is a compilation of three types of building standards from three different origins:
• Building standards that state agencies have adopted without change from building standards contained in national model codes;
• Building standards that have been adopted and adapted from national model codes to address California’s ever-changing conditions; and
• Building standards, authorized by the California legislature, constitute amendments not covered by national model codes that have been created and adopted to address California concerns.
Expansion and Improvement: Adherence to building codes, including local codes, regulates growth and controls land use patterns. As codes are updated, addressing known hazards lowers risk and potentially fewer losses.
San Bernardino
City Municipal
Code – Title 15
Building and
Construction
2022 All The purpose of the Building and Construction Code is to implement the San Bernardino City General Plan by classifying and regulating the uses of land and structures. It addresses earthquake and fire safety of structures, historic preservation, and compliance with California and Uniform Building Code regulations. The full code can be found at:
https://www.sbcity.org/city_hall/city_clerk/municipal_code
Expansion and Improvement: Building code policies should inform the HMP and the General Plan Land Use Element to guide developing structures that are compatible with and able to withstand hazards.
San Bernardino
City Municipal
Code – Title 19
Land
Use/Subdivision
Regulations
2022 All The purpose of this section of the Municipal Code is to promote public health, safety, and general welfare and preserve and enhance the aesthetic quality of the City by providing regulations to ensure an appropriate mix of land uses in an orderly manner.
Expansion and Improvement: Understanding land use policy and regulatory requirements is essential to developing mitigation strategies and activities. The land use components of the City Code will inform the development of the HMP mitigation actions.
City Emergency
Operations Plan
2015 All Explains how the City will respond to a major emergency or disaster and coordinate between the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) and field- level Incident Commanders; includes the hazards with a description of each; the concept of operations during a major emergency or disaster; the role of the EOC, and the coordination that occurs between the EOC and County’s departments and other local, state, and federal governments in times of disaster.
Expansion and Improvement: The hazards section of the Emergency Operations Plan (EOP) is informed by the HMP as the two are closely correlated.
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Table 4-1a: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Local Legal and Regulatory Capabilities
Resource Name Version/
Date
Hazards
Addressed
Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation)
National Flood
Insurance
Program
Current Flood NFIP makes federally backed flood insurance available to homeowners, renters, and business owners in participating communities. The City will continue participating in the NFIP program and make changes accordingly.
Expansion and Improvement: City websites and social media accounts will include information on the value of flood insurance for properties located in flood hazard areas and how to buy the insurance.
Regional
Greenhouse
Gas Reduction
Plan
2021 Climate
change,
Drought,
Excess Heat,
Wildland fire,
Flood, High
winds/Tornad
o/ Severe
storm
This is a Greenhouse Gas Reduction document for the County to help achieve its goals of reducing greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change impacts.
The plan may be found at the following link:
https://www.gosbcta.com/plan/regional-greenhouse-gas-reduction- plan/
Expansion and Improvement: The HMP and Regional Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan should be closely correlated. As the Climate Action Plan is updated, mitigation measures from the new HMP can be incorporated.
Table 4-1b: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Administrative and Technical Capabilities
Resource Name Lead Department Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) Planning Division Community and
Economic
Development
Department
Oversees the City Building Code, Zoning Code, General Plan, and Specific Plans. Able to apply for grants (Grant Writer).
Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to Community Development staff to maintain state-of-the-art knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements.
Code Enforcement
Division
Community and
Economic
Development
Department
Code Enforcement administers programs designed to protect the public’s safety, welfare, and property value through enforcement of San Bernardino City ordinances and State/Federal laws relating to land use, zoning, housing, public nuisances, and vehicle abatement within the unincorporated areas of the County.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to Code Enforcement staff to maintain state-of-the-art knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements.
Building and Safety
Division
Community and
Economic
Development
Department
Building and Safety’s primary responsibility is the enforcement of Building Standards. These standards include the California Building, Electrical, Plumbing, Mechanical, and Energy Codes and Disabled Access Regulations in Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide continued education opportunities to Building and Safety staff to maintain state-of-the-art knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements.
Public Safety Officers Police Department Preserves the quality of life throughout the community by enforcing the adopted local codes and ordinances that govern the proper use and maintenance of private properties.
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Table 4-1b: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Administrative and Technical Capabilities
Resource Name Lead Department Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) Expansion and Improvement: Provide training to Officers to better enable them to see potential hazards and take action to report them.
Floodplain Manager San Bernardino
County Director of
Public Works
The duties and responsibilities of the Floodplain Administrator shall include, but not be limited to:
• Permit review
• Flood hazard reduction
• NFIP program administration
• Construction inspections
Expansion and Improvement: The Floodplain Administrator supports compliance with NFIP requirements, advocates for appropriate development in flood hazard areas , and provides technical expertise on effective flood mitigation activities. This can support mitigation activities.
Planning Commission Community and
Economic
Development
This nine (9) member Commission, established under Municipal Code Chapter 2.22, is tasked with advising the Mayor, City Council, and City staff on the city's physical development, including zoning, building, land use, and related matters. The Planning Commission is responsible for reviewing proposed residential and commercial development projects, subdivisions, and land use requests on private property, to determine their compliance with applicable City regulations. The Commission has the authority to approve various development projects that comply with County requirements. In addition, the Commission makes recommendations to the City Council with respect to the City's General Plan, Zoning Code, Specific Plans, and other matters related to development within the County. The Commission may be responsible for implementing mitigation items pertaining to the Commission's scope.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for continued education to members of the Planning Commission to maintain state-of-the-art knowledge of new code and regulatory requirements.
Mountain Area
Safety Taskforce
(MAST)
California
Department of
Forestry
MAST is a coalition of local, state , and federal government agencies, private companies, and volunteer organizations in San Bernardino County concerned with public safety in the mountain areas of their respective jurisdictions.
Expansion and Improvement: Continue to map and monitor areas for recent wildfire events to know and understand where mudslides and landslides can occur.
City Attorney City Manager’s
Office
Reviews and approves resolutions and ordinances.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide opportunities for the City Attorney to review updates to regulatory information to provide expert review of County resolutions and ordinances that may address hazard mitigation.
Southern California
Association of
Governments (SCAG)
SCAG Functions as the Metropolitan Planning Organization for six counties: Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura, and Imperial. As the designated Metropolitan Planning Organization, the federal government mandates the Association of Governments to research and draw up plans for transportation, growth management, hazardous waste management, and air quality.
Expansion and Improvement: Attend SCAG meetings. Continue to participate in SCAG-sponsored programs. Routinely coordinate with SCAG staff to stay informed of current planning initiatives.
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Table 4-1b: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Administrative and Technical Capabilities
Resource Name Lead Department Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) GIS Information
Technology
Department
Provides complex mapping and data management of City facilities, land use , and potential hazards. Supports visualization of complex data sets using geo - location and data correlation.
Expansion and Improvement: Acquire and conduct training for GIS technicians on the latest versions of ArcGIS.
Inland Empire
Emergency
Communications
Services
County OES The Inland Valley Emergency Communications Service (IVECS) is the City's and other partnering agencies' amateur radio group. IVECS' mission is to support emergency communications between the community and government during incidents, events, or emergencies within the Inland Empire. IVECS service is authorized in Part 97.407 of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) rules and regulations governing amateur radio in the United States.
The primary mission and purpose of the IVECS is to support emergency communications during periods of local, regional, or national emergencies. By providing Fire and Police communication back-up with an amateur radio system, the integrity of public safety services is ensured.
Expansion and Improvement: Continue to recruit amateur radio operators.
Conduct preparedness exercises to provide proficiency in supporting emergency response.
Information
Technology
Information
Technology
Department
The role of the IT Department is to support the operational departments with reliable systems and information daily. The most critical support required of IT is network, communications, and applications support. The IT department provides short- and long-term direction in planning, researching, selecting, and deploying future technologies. IT strives to accommodate improved business process automation, self-service, and quality customer service through various hardware and software solutions.
Expansion and Improvement: Increase system redundancy and resiliency through improvements to technologies and connectivity.
Emergency
Management
Police Department Develops, coordinates, and manages programs that prevent, prepare for, respond to, recover from, and mitigate natural and human- caused disasters and emergencies.
Expansion and Improvement: Increase coordination and collaboration with other City departments, especially during annual budgeting.
Fire Department San Bernardino
County Fire
District
Effective July 1, 2016, Division 2 of the San Bernardino County Fire District provides fire protection and emergency medical response services.
Expansion and Improvement: Proactively identify opportunities to coordinate and collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions to increase City and region-wide capabilities.
Public Works Public Works
Department
The City of San Bernardino Public Works Department is responsible for maintaining and improving the City's vital infrastructure, including streets, sidewalks, parks, landscaping, sewers, storm drains, and public facilities.
Services are divided into four divisions : Engineering, Facilities and Fleet Maintenance, Integrated Solid Waste Management, and Operations and Maintenance. These services include maintenance of public buildings and facilities, landscaping and park upkeep, street and sidewalk maintenance and repair, storm drain and sewer servicing, and graffiti abatement.
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Table 4-1c: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Financial Resources
Financial Resource Administrator Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) General Fund Department Specific Program operations and specific projects. Consists of property tax, sales tax, transient occupancy tax, and franchise tax that can be used for general purposes.
Expansion and Improvement: Hazard mitigation projects may be considered during the annual budgeting process for funding from the general fund.
Enterprise Funds Fund specific The City operates a variety of Special Revenue Funds. Special Revenue Funds are used to account for revenue derived from specific taxes or other revenue sources that are restricted by law or administrative action to be expended for specified purposes.
Expansion and Improvement: Where permissible, Special Revenue Funds may be considered during the annual budgeting process for funding mitigation projects.
Community
Development Block
Grants (CDBG)
U.S. Department of
Housing and Urban
Development
The CDBG program provides funding for eligible senior activities such as in- home care, art classes, counseling, and home-delivered meals. HUD also provides Disaster Recovery Assistance in the form of flexible grants to help cities, counties, and States recover from Presidentially declared disasters, especially in low-income areas, subject to the availability of supplemental appropriations.
Expansion and Improvement: Where applicable, CDBG grants should be used to fund mitigation projects that enhance the resiliency of low-income and underserved communities.
Hazard Mitigation
Grant Program
(HMPG)
Emergency
Management
Provides support for pre-and post-disaster mitigation plans and projects.
Expansion and Improvement: Train staff on notice of intent (NOI) procedures and track opportunities on the Cal OES mitigation website to initiate applications for grant funding.
Building Resilient
Infrastructure and
Communities (BRIC)
Grant Funding Provides support for pre-disaster mitigation plans and projects.
Expansion and Improvement: Train staff on notice of intent (NOI) procedures and track opportunities on the Cal OES mitigation website to initiate applications for grant funding.
Flood Mitigation
Assistance grant
program (FMA)
Grant Funding Mitigates structures and infrastructure that have been repetitively flooded.
Expansion and Improvement: Train staff on notice of intent (NOI) procedures and track opportunities on the Cal OES mitigation website to initiate applications for grant funding.
Special Use Funds Program operations and specific projects. Consists of property tax, sales tax, transient occupancy tax, and franchise tax that can be used for general purposes.
Expansion and Improvement: Hazard mitigation projects may be considered during the annual budgeting process for funding from the general fund.
Table 4-1b: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Administrative and Technical Capabilities
Resource Name Lead Department Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) Expansion and Improvement: Improve the understanding of the role that daily activities play in hazard mitigation.
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Table 4-1d: City of San Bernardino Capabilities Assessment Education and Outreach Resources
Name Lead Organization Description (Effect on Hazard Mitigation) FEMA
https://www.ready.gov/
FEMA Provides free preparedness materials from FEMA’s online ordering platform. Contains a link to the FEMA readiness app.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide a link to the site on the County web page and Facebook account.
City of San Bernardino
Office of Emergency
Services Webpage
https://www.sbcity.org/
City_Hall/Police_Depart
ment/Emergency_Mana
gement
Police Department Responsible for the comprehensive development and implementation of the four phases of emergency management.
Expansion and Improvement: Expand and reorganize the website’s disaster preparedness links page.
San Bernardino County
Emergency/Disaster
Readiness web site
https://sbcfire.org/publi
ceducation/
San Bernardino County Fire
Protection District
The San Bernardino County Fire website has educational material on making an emergency plan, stocking supplies, staying informed, and getting involved.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide links to the County website on the County’s website. Post material on social media accounts that provide a link to the appropriate County website page.
Cal OES Family
Readiness Guide
https://www.caloes.ca.g
ov/wp-
content/uploads/Prepar
edness/Documents/Cal_
OES_Family_Readiness_
GuideENG.pdf
Cal OES The Guide provides a comprehensive toolkit for making a family emergency plan.
Expansion and Improvement: Provide a link to the Readiness Guide on the County website and Facebook account.
City Community
Emergency Response
Team (CERT)
Police Department The City of San Bernardino's Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Program educates people about disaster
preparedness for hazards that may impact their area and trains them in basic disaster response skills, such as fire safety, light search and rescue, team organization, and disaster medical operations.
Expansion and Improvement: Include material in CERT Newsletter that provides updates to progress in the mitigation action plan and contains links to the appropriate website page.
Telephone Emergency
Notification System
San Bernardino Sheriff’s
Department
San Bernardino County Sheriff and Fire Departments send high- speed mass notifications via telephone and text. This system can be targeted to specific geographic areas.
Expansion and Improvement: Continue to conduct outreach to expand the database and increase the percentage of residents who are subscribers.
City Website
https://www.sbcity.org/
IT Department Provide alert and warning information. Provide weather information and other public safety. Contains information on home and individual preparedness.
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And social media
accounts:
Facebook:
https://www.facebook.c
om/sbcitygov/
X (formerly known as
Twitter):
https://twitter.com/sbci
tygov
Instagram:
https://www.instagram.
com/sbcitygov/?hl=en
Expansion and Improvement: Link to FEMA, State and County websites, and social media accounts. Provide comprehensive personal/family preparedness information on these media.
Hazard Mitigation Strategies and Actions
Hazard Mitigation Goals
The goals identified in Chapter 1 help develop policies to protect community members, ecosystems, and other important assets from hazard events. These goals were developed to ensure consistency with the San Bernardino Plan 2050 Safety Element, which plays an important role in risk reduction within San Bernardino. These goals informed the development of mitigation actions and acted as checkpoints to help City staff determine implementation progress.
Evaluation of Potential Hazard Mitigation Actions
Based on the hazard profiles, threat assessment, capabilities assessment , community survey results , discussions among HMPC members, and existing best practices, a set of potential mitigation actions was developed and then evaluated based on the following criteria:
• FEMA requires local governments to evaluate potential mitigation actions' monetary and non- monetary costs and benefits. Although local governments are not required to assign specific dollar values to each action, they should identify the general size of costs and benefits. • The HMPC may elect to include measures with a high cost or low benefits, but such measures should be clearly beneficial to the community and appropriate use of local resources.
In addition, FEMA directs local governments to consider the following questions as part of the financial analysis:
• What is the frequency and severity of the hazard type to be addressed by the action, and how vulnerable is the community to this hazard?
• What impacts of the hazard will the action reduce or avoid? • What benefits will the action provide to the community?
The HMPC also chose to review and revise the potential hazard mitigation actions using a third set of criteria (Table 4-2), known as STAPLE/E (Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, and Environmental). The HMPC did not formally assess every potential mitigation action under all STAPLE/E criteria but used the criteria to guide and inform the discussion. A discussion also occurred regarding how the criteria might be used to evaluate grant applications the City may submit in the future as part of plan implementation.
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Table 4-2: STAPLE/E Criteria
Issues Criteria
Social • Is the action socially acceptable to community members? • Would the action mistreat some individuals?
• Is there a reasonable chance of the action causing a social disruption? Technical • Is the action likely to reduce the risk of the hazard occurring, or will it reduce the hazard's effects?
• Will the action create new hazards or make existing hazards worse? • Given the City and community members ' goals, is the action the most useful approach for the City to take?
Administrative • Does the City have the administrative capabilities to implement the action? • Can existing City staff lead and coordinate the measure's implementation, or can the City reasonably hire new staff for this role? • Does the City have enough staff, funding, technical support, and other resources to implement the action?
• Are there administrative barriers to implementing the action? Political • Is the action politically acceptable to City officials and other relevant jurisdictions and political entities?
• Do community members support the action?
Legal • Does the City have the legal authority to implement and enforce the action? • Are there potential legal barriers or consequences that could hinder or prevent the implementation of the action?
• Is there a reasonable chance that the implementation of the action would expose the City to legal liabilities?
• Could the action reasonably face other legal challenges? Economic • What are the monetary costs of the action, and do the costs exceed the monetary benefits?
• What are the start-up and maintenance costs of the action, including administrative costs?
• Has the funding for action implementation been secured, or is a potential funding source available?
• How will funding the action affect the City’s financial capabilities? • Could the implementation of the action reasonably burden the City’s economy or tax base?
• Could there reasonably be other budgetary and revenue impacts on the City?
Environmental • What are the potential environmental impacts of the action? • Will the action require environmental regulatory approvals? • Will the action comply with all applicable federal, state, regional, and local environmental regulations?
• Will the action reasonably affect any endangered, threatened, or otherwise sensitive species of concern?
COST ESTIMATES
To meet the cost estimation requirements of the hazard mitigation planning process, the HMPC identified relative cost estimates based on their understanding of the mitigation action intent and their experience
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developing identical or similar programs/implementing projects. Three cost categories based on the City’s typical cost criteria were used for budgeting purposes:
• Low cost ($): $49,999 or less
• Medium cost ($$): $50,000 to $999,999
• High cost ($$$): Greater than $1,000,000
Based on the criteria and evaluation processes used during Plan development, the HMPC prepared a prioritized list of mitigation actions to improve San Bernardino’s resilience to hazard events. Table 4-5 lists the mitigation actions, the prioritization of each action, and other details related to implementation. In addition to mitigation action and strategies, several preparedness activities were identified and denoted with the letter “P.”
2016 Mitigation Action Progress
A review of the mitigation actions from the 2016 San Bernardino LHMP has identified where the City has integrated these strategies into standard procedures and practices . For those actions that were not successfully implemented and remain relevant to the City , this Plan update incorporates these actions into the current mitigation action table, as displayed in Table 4-5 (shaded in blue). All actions from the 2016 LHMP were carried over to this plan.
2024 Hazard Mitigation Strategies and Actions
Table 4-5 identifies the 2024 mitigation strategies and actions proposed by the City as part of this LHMP update process. In addition to the list of actions, the table also identifies potential funding sources, responsible departments, relative cost estimates, timeframes, and priorities for these actions, which are described further below. In addition to mitigation action and strategies, several preparedness activities were identified and denoted with the letter “P.”
Potential Funding Sources
In addition, Table 4-5 lists the mitigation actions, prioritization of each action, and other details related to implementation, including potential FEMA funding sources such as:
Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC): A competitive FEMA grant program to support states, local communities, tribes, and territories.
Flood Mitigation Assistance Program (FMA): A competitive grant program that provides funding to states, local communities, federally recognized tribes, and territories. Funds can be used for projects that reduce or eliminate the risk of repetitive flood damage to buildings insured by the National Flood Insurance Program.
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) : Provides funding to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to rebuild in a way that reduces or mitigates future disaster losses in their communities. This grant funding is available after a presidentially declared disaster.
Other Grants: Other grants may include State of California grants associated with climate change, water infrastructure, homeland security, transportation, or other funding sources that periodically become available. The list below provides some common sources:
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1. Climate Adaptation Planning Sustainable Transportation Planning Grant Program - Department of Transportation
2. Sustainable Communities Competitive – Department of Transportation
3. CAL FIRE Wildfire Prevention Grants Program – Department of Forestry and Fire Protection
4. Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Program's Climate Adaptation Planning Grant – Office of Planning and Research
5. Small Community Drought Relief Program – Department of Water Resources
6. Addressing Climate Impacts – Department of Fish and Wildlife
7. Cleanup Loans and Environmental Assistance to Neighborhoods (CLEAN) Program – Department of Toxic Substances Control
8. Clean Water State Revolving Fund (CWSRF) Program Construction – State Water Resources Control Board
9. Drinking Water State Revolving Fund (DWSRF) Construction – State Water Resources Control Board
10. Water Recycling Funding Program (WRFP) Construction Grant – State Water Resources Control Board
11. Equitable Community Revitalization Grants (ECRG) – Department of Toxic Substances Control
12. Water Recycling Funding Program (WRFP) Planning Grant – State Water Resources Control Board
13. Infrastructure State Revolving Fund (ISRF) Program - Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank
TIMELINES
In addition, the timeframes identified in Table 4-5 may indicate a particular year to initiate the implementation of the action or , in some instances, use the terms “Ongoing” or “Annually .” For actions that use these terms, it is intended to identify that the action may add to existing capabilities and not have a particular start or end date or occur periodically . This is typically used for actions that include new policies, tasks, or standard operating procedures intended to mitigate future risks. • Ongoing (Annually): Actions that identify this timeframe are the types of actions that City staff would conduct on an annual basis.
• Ongoing (As Needed) : Actions that identify this timeframe include activities that City staff would conduct in response to a request by internal (City Departments) or external (Property Owners) forces. • Future Planning Process: Actions identified within this timeframe are considered low-priority actions that the City would like to continue to track but does not feel they would be able to implement in the current planning implementation timeframe.
For actions that use these terms, it is intended to identify that the action may add to existing capabilities and not have a particular start or end date or occur periodically. This is typically used for actions that include new policies, tasks, or standard operating procedures intended to mitigate future risks.
Prioritization
As part of the mitigation actions development and review, the HMPC also prioritized the actions. The prioritization efforts looked at the risks and threats from each hazard, financial costs and benefits, technical feasibility, and community values, among o thers. HMPC members were asked to identify their priority actions through a voting exercise. Items prioritized by at least three HMPC members are
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considered a high priority, and those prioritized by one or two members are considered a medium priority.
Actions not prioritized by any HMPC member are considered a low priority.
National Flood Insurance Program
San Bernardino participates in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), created by Congress in 1968 to provide flood insurance at subsidized rates to homeowners living in flood -prone areas. Individual communities have the option to participate in the NFIP, although property owners who live in nonparticipating communities with flood-prone areas will not be able to buy flood insurance through the program. Additionally, no nparticipating communities with mapped floodplain s cannot receive federal grants or loans for development activities in flood -prone areas and cannot receive federal disaster assistance to repair flood -damaged buildings in mapped floodplain s. San Bernardino has participated in NFIP since it was first deemed eligible. Table 4-3 provides the City’s NFIP information.
Table 4-3: City of San Bernardino NFIP Information
Initial Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) 6/28/1974
Initial Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) 7/16/1979
NFIP Participation Date 7/16/1979
Current Effective map Date 9/2/2016
Although participation is not a dedicated hazard mitigation action, San Bernardino will continue to participate in NFIP and comply with the program’s requirements through continued enforcement of the City’s Floodplain Management Regulations (Municipal Code Chapters 8.79: Floodplain Management and
19.16: FP (Flood Plain Overlay) Zone)). These regulations apply to all areas of special flood hazards, flood- related erosion hazards, and mudslide (i.e., mudflow) hazards within the City . These regulations aim to promote public health, safety, and general welfare and minimize public and private losses due to flood conditions. This chapter also includes methods of reducing flood losses, the basis for establishing flood hazard areas, development permit requirements, duties and responsibilities of the City’s Floodplain Administrator, the development standards that apply in flood-prone areas and required documentation and analysis for construction within these areas. As part of the City’s efforts to comply with NFIP, San Bernardino will make updates and revisions to the se regulations periodically to ensure they are most effective at minimizing the threat of harm from flood events. These updates and revisions may be promoted by changes in local demographics, shifts in land use, changes to flood regimes such as frequency and intensity of flood events, and other factors that may warrant municipal action. The City will also continue to incorporate any changes to the locations and designations of mapped floodplains into future planning documents, including future updates to this Plan. Table 4 -4 provides the City’s floodplain management regulations.
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Table 4-4: City of San Bernardino Floodplain Management Regulations Adoption of Minimum Floodplain Management
Criteria, and Implementation and Enforcement of
Floodplain Management Regulations
Ord. MC-1551. Adopted December 7, 2020
Ord. MC-1393. Adopted December 2, 2013
Designee to Implement NFIP
8.79.030 - Designation of the Floodplain
Administrator. The City Engineer fulfills this
role.
Implementation of Substantial Improvement/
Substantial Damages Provisions
8.79.170 – Substantial Improvement and
Substantial Damage Determinations
Note: Ordinances are hyperlinked to Municipal Code Section The City of San Bernardino contains Special Flood Hazard Areas with 100 policies in force , with approximately $ 117,624 in premiums . Total insurance coverage for these policies amounts to $35,621,800. According to FEMA, a total of 140 closed paid losses have occurred, totaling $931,447; however, only two repetitive loss properties (one residential and one other-nonresidential) and no severe repetitive loss properties were identified by FEMA.
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Table 4-5: Mitigation Action Implementation Plan
(Mitigation Actions from the 2016 San Bernardino LHMP are highlighted in blue) Mitigation Action Potential Funding
Sources
Responsible
Department
Relative
Cost*
Time frame Priority
Preparedness Activities
P1 Conduct regular emergency preparedness drills and training exercises for City staff.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
Emergency Management
(EM)
$ Ongoing
(Annually)
High
P2 Continue to support the expansion of Red Cross Agreements with public agencies (City, School Districts) and private entities (Faith-Based Organizations, etc.) to ensure facilities can act as evacuation sites during major emergencies.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
P3 Continue working with local businesses and organizations to conduct regular workplace emergency preparedness training.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
P4 Expand participation in the San Bernardino Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ 2026 Low
P5 Develop means to evacuate community members who do not have access to private vehicles or are otherwise unable to drive.
General Fund,
Other Grants
EM $ 2026 Low
P6 Continue to ensure effective emergency notifications through multiple media formats—in at least English and Spanish—about pending, imminent, or ongoing emergency events. Ensure that information is accessible to people with access and functional needs.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
P7 Update the San Bernardino Emergency Operations Plan to identify backup power and communications locations for critical facilities.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ 2025
Medium
P8 Continuously update response procedures for first responder departments to properly address new hazard events as they emerge.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
P9 Ensure that the City has an adequate supply of sandbags for residents and businesses, including prefilled sandbags for individuals who cannot fill them on their own.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ 2025 Low
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P10 Continue conducting active shooter drills for City staff by Police Department and Fire District tactical teams.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
P11 Continue supporting community active shooter preparedness through quarterly Active Shooter educational workshops.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Quarterly)
Low
P12 Increase the number of City staff with CalOES Safety Assessment Program (SAP) credentials.
General Fund,
Homeland Security
Grants
EM $ 2026 Low
Multiple Hazards
1.01 Upgrade or install energy-efficient fixtures, appliances, and/or equipment within Critical Facilities to increase the longevity of the fuel supply for backup generators.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
Public Works (PW) $$$ 2025-2029 Medium
1.02 Repair, as feasible, all major deficiencies discovered by inspections to prevent collapse, failure, or damage of key infrastructure in the event of a natural disaster.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
PW $$$ Ongoing
(As needed)
High
1.03 Identify and upgrade City facilities that can serve as key cooling centers and evacuation and sheltering locations.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants
(BRIC), Other
Grants
Parks and Recreation (PR) $$$ 2025-2029 Medium
1.04 Conduct a feasibility assessment for installing solar and battery backup systems at key critical facilities within the City.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
PW $$ 2030 Low
1.05 Work closely with community groups to increase awareness of hazard events and resiliency opportunities among socially vulnerable community members.(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
Other Grants
Community and Economic
Development (CED), Police
Dept. (PD), Fire Dept. (FD),
PR
$ 2025 Low
1.06 Avoid building new City-owned key facilities in mapped hazard areas. If no feasible sites outside of mapped areas exist, ensure that such facilities are hardened against hazards beyond any minimum building
requirements/mitigation standards.(Hazards addressed: All) General Fund CED, PW $ 2025 Medium
1.07 Coordinate with regional social service agencies and nonprofit care providers to obtain temporary shelter for homeless persons in advance of potential hazard events.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
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1.08 Coordinate with Caltrans to monitor bridges within the City and develop recommendations for upgrade/retrofit when deemed necessary. Prioritize upgrades/retrofits on key evacuation routes.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
PW $$$ Ongoing
(Annually)
High
1.09 Closely monitor changes in the boundaries of mapped hazard areas resulting from land use changes, new or updated information, changes to state or federal hazard maps, or climate change, and adopt new mitigation actions or revise existing ones to ensure continued resiliency.
(Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund CED $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
1.10 Install and harden emergency backup power at critical facilities deemed necessary. Prioritize installations for facilities that serve as key cooling/warming and evacuation centers. (Hazards addressed: All) General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
PW $$$ 2027 High
1.11 Monitor funding sources for hazard mitigation activities. (Hazards addressed:
All)
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
City Manager (CM) $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
1.12 Integrate policy direction and other information from this Plan into other City documents, including the General Plan, Emergency Operations Plan, and Capital Improvements Program. (Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund CED, PW, EM $ 2025-2026 Medium
1.13 Identify updated equipment and training to enhance emergency services and increase the efficiency of emergency response and recovery activities.
General Fund,
Other Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
1.14 Integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation information and analysis into future LHMP updates and other City Plans, where practicable. (Hazards addressed: All)
General Fund CED $ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Low
Seismic/Geologic Hazards (Fault Rupture, Seismic Shaking, Landslides, Liquefaction)
2.01 Prepare a seismically vulnerable inventory of private and public buildings. General Fund, FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
CED, PW $$ 2025-2029 Medium
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2.02 Based on the technical report by URS Corp. supporting the EIR for the General Plan Update, include identified areas outside of the currently designated zone of liquefaction susceptibility within the Geologic Hazard Overlay District.
General Fund CED $ 2029 Low
2.03 Require development on hillsides to be sited in such a manner that minimizes the extent of topographic alteration required to minimize erosion, maintain slope stability, and reduce the potential for offsite sediment transport.
General Fund CED, PW $ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Medium
2.04 Monitor and track development applications that propose seismic improvements and ancillary issues to accommodate changes in the original use of the structure. (Hazards addressed: Seismic shaking, Fault Rupture) General Fund CED $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
2.05 Encourage community groups and industry representatives to conduct outreach about earthquake insurance to San Bernardino community members, including renters. (Hazards addressed: Seismic shaking, Fault Rupture)
General Fund CED, EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
2.06 Improve local understanding of the threat of a major earthquake by conducting a citywide scenario modeling potential loss of life and injuries, destroyed and damaged structures, and interruptions to key services. (Hazards addressed: Seismic shaking, Fault Rupture)
General Fund CED, EM $/$$ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
2.07 Retrofit key critical facilities with seismically rated and tinted window film treatments that ensure glass windows do not shatter and install tie-downs and straps for fixtures inside buildings. (Hazards addressed: Seismic shaking) General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP), Other
Grants
PW $$ 2029 Medium
2.08 Monitor groundwater elevations for areas of potential liquefaction to ensure shallow groundwater conditions do not increase seismic vulnerability. (Hazards addressed: Liquefaction)
General Fund,
Other Grants
Water Dept. (WD) $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
2.09 Reduce land use densities in areas of significant geologic hazard threat and identify retrofitting strategies for existing development in these hazard areas. (Hazards addressed: Seismic Hazards, Geologic Hazards)
General Fund CED $ Future
Planning
Process
Low
Wildfire
3.01 Incorporate the most up-to-date fire codes, regulations, and ordinances into the General Plan.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED $ 2025 Low
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3.02 Continue cooperating and coordinating Fire Hazard Mitigation efforts with all stakeholders in the Wildland Urban Interface areas of the city through participation in the Mountain Areas Safety Taskforce (MAST).
General Fund,
Other Grants
FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
3.03 Promote the proper maintenance and separation of power lines from buildings, trees, and other potential obstructions, in coordination with SoCal Edison.
General Fund CED, CM, PW $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
3.04 Increase education and knowledge regarding safety and efficient response to fallen power lines in coordination with SoCal Edison.
General Fund CM, EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
3.05 Coordinate programs with private entities to decrease highly flammable vegetation in the developed portions of the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) and replant with fire-resistant specimens.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
3.06 Evaluate a hillside weed abatement pilot program using goats or other livestock to reduce fuel loads in fire-prone areas.
General Fund,
Other Grants
FD $ 2029 Low
3.07 Prepare a Community Wildfire Protection Plan for areas within the City prone to wildfire hazards.
General Fund,
Other Grants
FD $ 2026 Medium
3.08 Work with property owners to manage dead vegetation on vacant properties, in flood control facility footprints, railroad rights-of-way, parks, and open spaces, especially during and after periods of extreme heat or prolonged drought.
General Fund CED, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
3.09 Increase communication, coordination, and collaboration between wildland/urban interface property owners, City planners, and fire prevention crews and officials to address risks, existing mitigation strategies, and federal assistance programs.
General Fund CED, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
3.10 Conduct a fire hazard prevention awareness campaign for residents in the WUI and surrounding areas.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CM, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
High
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3.11 Require all new development in the WUI and surrounding areas to use building materials and methods approved by CA Building Standards Commission and establish zones of defensible space around structures in these areas.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, FD $ 2025 High
3.12 Coordinate with the San Bernardino County Fire District for recommended landscaping vegetation lists and design recommendations that illustrate wildfire-resilient strategies.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
3.13 Develop an inventory of sprinklered structures in the City and a community risk profile.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, FD $$ 2028 Medium
Flooding (includes Dam Inundation)
4.01 Continue participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). General Fund, FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
CED $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
4.02 Periodically review and analyze the findings and recommendations from the Alluvial Fan Task Force reports and incorporate findings into the LHMP and other appropriate plans as funding permits.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
4.03 Amend the Flood Plain Safety Overlay District through automatic map updates (including revised FEMA floodplain data) as FEMA releases and publishes new data.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, IT $$ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Low
4.04 Construct flood control facilities identified in each flood control zone. General Fund, FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
PW, SB County Flood
Control
$$$ 2029 Low
4.05 Investigate using permeable paving and landscaped swales for new construction and replacement of City-owned hardscape areas.
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
CED, PW $$ 2029 Low
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4.06 Update the City’s Storm Drain Master Plan periodically (in conjunction with the LHMP and CIP) to incorporate new data (FEMA flood maps and information) and/or address emerging issues.
General Fund,
Other Grants
PW $$ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Medium
4.07 Analyze if new critical facilities can be built at least 1 foot higher than the anticipated 500-year flood elevation height to determine where feasible.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, PW $$ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Low
4.08 Coordinate with dam owners/operators, state, and federal agencies to collectively identify threats to the City and the region and identify ways to retrofit/strengthen the dams under their control.
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
EM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
4.09 Conduct frequent cleanings of storm drain intakes, especially before and during the rainy season.
General Fund,
Other Grants
PW $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
4.10 Monitor intersections that frequently flood during rain events and identify improvements to alleviate these conditions.
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
PW $$$ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
4.11 Track areas where ponding frequently occurs during heavy rainfall and install new drains or upgrade existing ones to reduce water ponding.
General Fund,
Other Grants
PW $$$ 2026 Medium
4.12 Identify potential flood improvements that reduce inundation from both storm flows and potential dam inundation effects.
General Fund,
FEMA Grants (BRIC,
HMGP, FMA), Other
Grants
PW $$ 2029 Medium
Severe Weather (Drought, Extreme Heat, Severe Wind)
5.01 Update Chapter 19.28 of the San Bernardino Municipal Code to reflect the latest advances in best practices in landscape design that reduce water use within the City and address wildfire susceptibility.
(Hazards addressed: Drought)
General Fund CED $ 2025, 2028,
2031
Low
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5.02 Develop a campaign to encourage water/energy efficiency, reduce consumption for existing development, and promote the expansion of electric vehicle-ready construction in new development.
(Hazards addressed: Drought, Extreme Heat)
General Fund CED, WD $ 2029 Low
5.03 Use drought-tolerant plants when installing new or retrofitting City-owned landscapes. Limit turf that is not drought tolerant to recreational fields and lawns, and only in instances where no feasible drought tolerant alternatives exist. (Hazards addressed: Drought)
General Fund,
Other Grants
PW $$ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
5.04 Implement an Urban Forest Master Plan to diversify tree age, increase resilience to drought and warmer temperatures, and expand shaded areas in the City to reduce urban heat island effects.
(Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat)
General Fund CED, PW $$$ 2029 Low
5.05 Create a Cooling Center Plan for the use of designated public facilities (libraries, community centers, etc.) as cooling centers for vulnerable populations during extreme weather events.
(Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat)
General Fund PR $$ 2026 Medium
5.06 During the design review process, promote passive cooling design (brise- soleil, long roof overhangs, locating windows away from southern facades, etc.) in new developments.
(Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat)
General Fund CED $ Future
Planning
Process
Low
5.07 Evaluate the long-term capacity of designated cooling centers and shelters in the City to provide sufficient relief from extreme heat. Assess the need to expand services as the frequency, length, and severity of future heat waves potentially change due to climate change. (Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat) General Fund PR, PW $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
5.08 Conduct outreach to residents and businesses prior to severe wind events (Santa Ana Winds) on proper tree maintenance and identification of potentially hazardous trees.
(Hazards addressed: Severe Wind)
General Fund CM $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
5.09 Where feasible, remove or trim trees susceptible to blowing over during a severe wind event and underground power lines.
(Hazards addressed: Severe Wind)
General Fund PW $$$ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Medium
5.10 Upgrade HVAC within City facilities to more efficient systems, including split or decentralized systems that allow for heating and cooling rooms/spaces. (Hazards addressed: Extreme heat)
General Fund PW $$$ 2029 Low
5.11 Increase the use and construction of shade structures within new developments, City facilities, parks, and trails to reduce urban heat island impacts. (Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat)
General Fund CED, PR, PW $$$ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Medium
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5.12 Promote early notifications to residents before a severe weather event, focusing on effective communication methods with vulnerable populations to better ensure they have adequate time to prepare. (Hazards addressed:
Severe Weather)
General Fund CM, EM, PR $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
5.13 Expand access to alternative energy technologies, energy efficiency improvements and appliances, and programs for vulnerable populations to reduce energy consumption and the need for City services during extreme heat conditions. (Hazards addressed: Extreme Heat)
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, PR $$ 2029 Low
Human-Caused Hazards (Cyber Threats, Terrorism/MCI, Civil Unrest)
6.01 Coordinate with the San Bernardino County Sheriff to monitor potential terrorism, mass casualty incidents, and/or civil unrest. (Hazards addressed: Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incidents/Civil Unrest) General Fund PD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
6.02 Disseminate information on cyber threats, potential terrorist activity, or civil unrest to City staff and continually follow up with information on further developments of the situation.
(Hazards addressed: Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incidents, Civil Unrest, Cyber Threats)
General Fund IT, PD $ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Low
6.03 Regularly update cyber security software and educate business owners and residents on current internet-based threats.
(Hazards addressed: Cyber Threats)
General Fund CM, IT, PD $$ Ongoing
(Annually)
High
6.04 Evaluate all critical facilities and facilities of concern for potential human- caused hazard vulnerabilities and integrate counterterrorism design elements and building materials, where feasible.
(Hazards addressed: Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incidents)
General Fund CED, PD, PW $$$ Ongoing
(Annually)
High
6.05 Coordinate and enhance datasets for schools, hospitals, and other critical facilities with the School District, Hospitals, and other key entities within the City to better respond to mass-casualty and terrorism incidents. (Hazards addressed: Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incidents)
General Fund CM, FD, IT, PD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Medium
6.06 Conduct proactive community policing during special events. Ensure that all staff involved in community policing are trained to engage with and respect community members while maintaining security. (Hazards addressed:
Terrorism/Mass Casualty Incidents)
General Fund PD $$ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
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Hazardous Materials Release
7.01 Discourage new sensitive land uses, including schools, parks, childcare centers, adult and senior assisted living facilities, and community centers, from locating near identified hazardous material facilities. Discourage or prohibit new hazardous material facilities from locating near sensitive land uses.
General Fund CED $ Ongoing
(As Needed)
High
7.02 Continuously inspect businesses and other properties storing hazardous materials and create an inventory of storage locations that require updates, maintenance, or renovation.
General Fund,
Other Grants
FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
7.03 Continue to work with solid waste service contractors to educate residents and businesses on the safe disposal of small quantities of hazardous materials.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CM, PW $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
7.04 Coordinate with hazardous materials generators/operators (So Cal Gas, Edison, etc.) regularly to understand changes to operations within the City.
General Fund,
Other Grants
EM, FD $ Ongoing
(Annually)
Low
7.05 Analyze the locations of railroad rights of way and adjacent land uses to determine key locations of concern if a train derailment occurs.
General Fund,
Other Grants
CED, EM, FD, PD, PW $ Ongoing
(As Needed)
Low
Relative Cost Categories:
$ Less than $49,000
$$ $50,000-$999,999
$$$ Greater than $1,000,000
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Chapter 5 – Plan Maintenance
For this LHMP to remain effective and useful to the community of San Bernardino , it must remain up to date. An updated version of the LHMP will continue to guide San Bernardino hazard mitigation activities and help keep the City eligible for state and federal hazard mitigation funding. The HMPC has structured this LHMP so individual sections can easily be updated as new information becomes available and as new needs arise, helping to keep this Plan current.
This chapter discusses updating this Plan to comply with applicable state and federal requirements. This chapter also describes how the City can incorporate the mitigation actions described in Chapter 4 into existing programs and planning mechanisms and how public participation will remain an important part of Plan monitoring and future update activities.
Coordinating Body
The HMPC will remain responsible for maintaining and updating the Plan, including evaluating the Plan effectiveness as needed. Members of the HMPC will also coordinate the implementation of the Plan through their respective positions. Table 1-1 in Chapter 1 contains a list of current members. In future years, staff and representatives (either current HMPC members or other individuals) from the following City Departments should be included in maintenance and update activities:
• Community and Economic Development
• Finance
• Human Resources
• Information Technology
• Library
• Parks, Recreation, and Community Services
• Police Department (Emergency Management)
• Public Works
• Water Department
The staff member currently serving as the HMPC leader (responsible for coordinating future updates) is in the Office of Emergency Management (within the Police Department). He/she will serve as the project manager during the update process or designate this role to another staff member. The HMPC leader or their designee will coordinate the maintenance of this Plan, lead the formal Plan review and evaluation activities, direct the Plan update, and assign tasks to other members of the HMPC to complete these activities. Such tasks may include collecting data, developing new mitigation actions, updating mitigation actions, making presentations to City staff and community groups, and revising sections of the Plan.
Plan Implementation
The effectiveness of the Plan depends on the successful implementation of the mitigation actions. This includes integrating mitigation actions into existing City plans, policies, programs, and other implementation mechanisms. The mitigation actions in this Plan are intended to reduce the damage from hazard events, help the City secure funding, and provide a framework for hazard mitigation activities.
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HMPC members prioritized the hazard mitigation actions in Table 4-5 in Chapter 4. These priorities will guide the implementation of these actions through new or existing City mechanisms as resources are available. The LHMP project manager is responsible for overseeing this Plan's implementation, promotion, and maintenance, as well as facilitating meetings and other coordinating activities related to Plan implementation and maintenance.
The key City Plans that should incorporate content from this LHMP include the following:
• The San Bernardino Plan 2050 - Safety Element – Content from the LHMP incorporated into the Safety Element will ensure the goals and policies of this plan are reinforced throughout future developments and projects proposed within the city.
• San Bernardino Emergency Operations Plan – This plan focuses on the effective preparedness and response to hazard events that occur within the city. Incorporating relevant content from this plan into the EOP ensures consistency regarding the hazards addressed in both plans. • San Bernardino Capital Improvements Program – This program identifies key infrastructure investments throughout the City that may include hazard mitigation elements. Incorporating this plan into the CIP may enhance infrastructure investment through additional funding and/or modification of improvements to include hazard mitigation elements.
This integration of the LHMP into The San Bernardino Plan 2050 Safety Element also allows the City to comply with AB 2140 requirements, as identified in Chapter 1 of this plan.
Plan Maintenance Process
The City’s plan maintenance process will rely on the San Bernardino Mitigation Implementation Handbook, located in Appendix E. The handbook is intended to function as a stand-alone document that gives a concise and accessible guide to jurisdiction staff for implementing and maintaining the Plan. A key component of the handbook is the specific mechanisms the jurisdiction can use to integrate this plan into other City planning mechanisms.
Plan Monitoring and Evaluation
When members of the HMPC are not updating the Plan, they should meet at least once a year to go over mitigation action implementation and evaluate the Plan’s effectiveness. These meetings should include the following:
• Discussion of the timing of mitigation action implementation • Mitigation action implementation evaluation and determination of success • Mitigation action prioritization revisions, if deemed necessary • Mitigation action integration into other mechanisms, as needed
The first of these meetings will be held in the 2025-2026 fiscal calendar year. To the extent possible, HMPC meetings should be scheduled at an appropriate time in the City’s annual budgeting process, which will help ensure that funding and staffing needs for mitigation actions are considered.
When the HMPC meets to evaluate the Plan, members should consider these questions:
• What hazard events, if any, have occurred in San Bernardino in the past year? What were the impacts of these events on the community? Were the impacts mitigated, and if so, how?
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• What mitigation actions have been successfully implemented? Have any mitigation actions been implemented but not successfully, and if so, why?
• What mitigation actions, if any, have been scheduled for implementation but have not yet been implemented?
• What is the schedule for implementing future mitigation actions? Is this schedule reasonable? Does the schedule need to be adjusted for future implementation, and are such adjustments appropriate and feasible?
• Have any new issues of concern arisen, including hazard events in other communities or regions that are not covered by existing mitigation actions?
• Are new data available that could inform updates to the Plan, including data relevant to the hazard profiles and threat assessments?
• Are there any new planning programs, funding sources, or other mechanisms that can support hazard mitigation activities in San Bernardino?
Plan Updates
The information in this Plan, including the hazard profiles, threat assessments, and mitigation actions, is based on the best available information, practices, technology, and methods available to the City and HMPC at the time this Plan was prepared. As factors change, including technologies, community demographics and characteristics, best practices, and hazard conditions, it is necessary to update the plan to remain relevant. Additionally, Title 44, Section 201.6(d)(3) of the Code of Federal Regulations requires that LHMPs be reviewed, revised, and resubmitted for approval every five years to remain eligible for federal benefits.
UPDATE METHOD AND SCHEDULE
The update process will begin no later than four years after this Plan is adopted, allowing a year for the update process before the Plan expires. Depending on the circumstances, the LHMP project manager or their designee may also choose to begin the update process sooner . Some reasons for accelerating the update process may include the following:
• A presidential disaster declaration for San Bernardino or an area that includes part or the entire city
• A hazard event that results in one or more fatalities in San Bernardino
The update process will add new and updated methods, demographic data, community information, hazard data and events, considerations for threat assessments, mitigation actions, and other information, as necessary. This helps keep the Plan relevant and curr ent. The HMPC will determine the best process for updating the Plan, which should include the following steps:
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UPDATE ADOPTION
The San Bernardino City Council is responsible for adopting this Plan and all future updates. As previously mentioned, adoption should occur every five years. To ensure the plan remains active, the City will begin the update process at least one year prior to expiration. If the City has a grant application that relies on the LHMP, an update to the plan will occur no later than 18 months before expiration. Adoption should take place after FEMA notifies the City that the Plan is Approved Pending Adoption. Once the City Council adopts the Plan following its approval by FEMA, the adopted plan should be transmitted to FEMA.
Continued Public Involvement
The City will continue to keep members of the public informed about the HMPC ’s actions to review and update the LHMP. The HMPC will develop a revised community engagement strategy that reflects the City’s updated needs and capabilities. The updated strategy should include a tentative schedule and plan for public meetings, recommendations for using the City website and social media accounts, and content for public outreach documentation. The HMPC will also distribute annual progress reports through City social media platforms and mailing lists used to engage community members. These outreach opportunities will describe the actions taken by the City and ways that residents and businesses can help further the City’s goals. These updates are anticipated to occur after the annual HMPC meeting is conducted by the City.
Point of Contact
The HMPC leader for San Bernardino is the primary point of contact for this Plan and future updates. At the time of writing, the HMPC leader is Michele Mahan (Lieutenant, Emergency Operations), available at [email protected] | (909) 384-5606.
Engage the HMPC (with at
least one member from each
City department).
Contact non-City
organizations (that
previously participated or are
interested stakeholders) to
participate in the update.
Review and update the
hazard mapping and threat
assessment for critical
facilities.
Revise the threat assessment
for populations and other
assets.
Determine what measures
have been completed,
changed, cancelled, or
postponed and review and
revise mitigation actions, as
needed.
Prepare an updated plan to
be distributed to
stakeholders and the public.
Conduct a public review
period of the Draft Plan
allowing residents and
interested stakeholders to
provide comment.
Following public review, send
a draft of the updated plan
to Cal OES and FEMA for
review and approval.
Adopt the final updated Plan
within one year of beginning
the update process and
within five years of the
adoption of the previous
Plan.
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U.S. Department of Homeland Security
FEMA Region 9
1111 Broadway, Suite 1200
Oakland, CA 94607-4052
www.fema.gov
October 4, 2024
Michele Mahan
Emergency Manager
City of San Bernardino
710 N. D Street
San Bernardino, CA 92410
Dear Michele Mahan:
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has completed its review of the City of San Bernardino Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 2024 and has determined that this plan is eligible for final approval pending its adoption by the City of San Bernardino.
Formal adoption documentation must be submitted to FEMA Region 9 within one calendar year of the date of this letter, or the entire plan must be updated and resubmitted for review. FEMA will approve the plan upon receipt of the documentation of formal adoption.
If you have any questions regarding the planning or review processes, please contact the FEMA Region 9 Hazard Mitigation Planning Team at [email protected].
Sincerely,
for Alison Kearns
Planning and Implementation Branch Chief
Mitigation Division
FEMA Region 9
Enclosure (1)
City of San Bernardino Plan Re view Tool, dated October 4, 2024
cc: Robyn Fennig, State Hazard Mitigation Officer, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services
Victoria LaMar-Haas, Hazard Mitigation Planning Chief, California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services
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CONSENT CALENDAR
City of San Bernardino
Request for Council Action
Date: May 7, 2025
To: Honorable Mayor and City Council Members
From: Bill Gallardo, Interim City Manager;
Lynn Merrill, Director of Public Works
Department: Public Works
Subject: Adopt Resolution Authorizing the Submittal of
Individual CalRecycle Payment Program Applications
and Related Authorizations for All Payment Programs
(All Wards)
Recommendation:
It is recommended that the Mayor and City Council of the City of San Bernardino, California adopt Resolution 2025-283:
1. Authorize the City Manager Authorize the City Manager, or their designee, to submit an application to CalRecycle for any and all payment programs offered.
2. Authorize the City Manager, or their designee, to act as Signature Authority to execute all documents necessary to implement and secure payment under such programs.
3. These authorizations remain effective until rescinded by the Signature Authority or the governing body.
Executive Summary:
California Department of Resources and Recycling (CalRecycle), offers various payment programs designed to support local and regional efforts to reduce waste, increase recycling, and create sustainability programs. The various payment programs offered by CalRecycle provide needed funding to jurisdictions to meet compliance obligations and promote environmental stewardship. To apply for CalReycle payment programs, jurisdictions are required to adopt a formal resolution by which the governing body grants permissions necessary to execute all documents and secure payment under such programs.
Background
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The California State Legislature passed key legislation on waste diversion, recycling, and air pollution reduction, authorizing the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) to create payment programs and allocate funding for related initiatives (e.g., AB 939, AB 2020, AB 341, SB 1383).
CalRecycle distributes these funds to local jurisdictions through payment programs.
The City of San Bernardino has effectively used funds from these programs previously to ensure compliance with state mandates, access program services, and provide residents with educational resources.
Discussion
The California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) offers various payment programs designed to support local and regional efforts in waste reduction, recycling, and reducing air pollutants. These programs provide vital funding to the City of San Bernardino for environmental, waste diversion, recycling, and sustainability initiatives. To apply for CalRecycle payment programs, local jurisdictions are required to adopt a formal resolution granting the necessary authorizations to execute all required documents and secure payment under these programs. It is recommended that the Mayor and City Council adopt Resolution No. 2025-XXX, authorizing the City Manager, or their designee, to submit applications for any and all CalRecycle payment programs, and to act as Signature Authority to execute necessary documents for program implementation and payment. These authorizations would remain in effect until rescinded by the Signature Authority or the governing body. This resolution will allow the City of San Bernardino to continue utilizing CalRecycle funding to support compliance with state mandates and advance the City's environmental initiatives.
2021-2025 Strategic Targets and Goals
This initiative is consistent with Key Strategic Target and Goal No. 1b: Improved Operational & Financial Capacity – Continue to seek opportunities to secure long-term revenue sources. Annual CalRecycle payment programs fund various costs associated with complying with State mandates and benefit the community with unique services specifically associated with waste, litter, recycling, and air pollution mitigation.
Fiscal Impact
There is no General Fund impact associated with this action.
Conclusion
It is recommended that the Mayor and City Council of the City of San Bernardino, California adopt Resolution 2025-283:
1. Authorize the City Manager, or their designee, to submit an application to CalRecycle for any and all payment programs offered.
2. Authorize the City Manager, or their designee, to act as Signature Authority to execute all documents necessary to implement and secure payment under such programs.
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3. These authorizations remain effective until rescinded by the Signature Authority or the governing body.
Attachments
Attachment 1 Resolution No. 2025-283
Ward:
All Wards
Synopsis of Previous Council Actions:
May 15, 2006 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2006-140, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the California Department of Conservation, Division of Recycling.
May 23, 2007 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2007-167, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the California Department of Conservation, Division of Recycling.
July 7, 2008 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2006-140, 21 Packet Pg. 1343 6795 Page 3 authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the California Department of Conservation, Division of Recycling.
May 4, 2009 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2009-113, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the California Department of Conservation, Division of Recycling.
June 6, 2011 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2011-131, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
January 23, 2012 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2012-017, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
April 21, 2014 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2014-106, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
June 18, 2015 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2015-126, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
June 6, 2016 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2016-113, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
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Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
July 5, 2017 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2017-127, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
July 6, 2018 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2018-191, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
July 17, 2019 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2019-173, authorizing submittal of Funding Request Form to the
Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery
(CalRecycle).
July 15, 2020 Mayor and City Council adopted Resolution No. 2020-174, authorizing submittal of applications for CalRecycle payment programs and approving related authorizations.
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Resolution No. 2025-283
Resolution No. 2025-282