TO: HONORABLE MAYOR FROM: Jeff Provenzano
AND CITY COUNCIL
SUBJECT: See Below DATE: May 12. 2025
Approved Date
5/19/25
COUNCIL DISTRICT: 4
SUBJECT: San José Municipal Water System’s Water Supply Assessment for the 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Project
RECOMMENDATION
Approve the San José Municipal Water System’s Water Supply Assessment for the 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Project.
SUMMARY AND OUTCOME
City Council approval of the Water Supply Assessment (WSA) will fulfill the requirements of the California Water Code and the California Environmental Quality Act.
The WSA identifies the water supply sources available to meet the 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Project’s (Project) potable and recycled demands.
BACKGROUND
A WSA has been prepared for the proposed Project as required by State law. The Project site is located at the intersection of Cisco Way and River Oaks Parkway in the Municipal Water System’s (Muni Water) North San José/Alviso service area.
California Water Code Section 10910 (Senate Bill 610) requires that water retailers prepare a water supply assessment for certain types of proposed projects, including one that would demand an amount of water equal to or greater than that required by a 500- dwelling unit project. The Project meets the criteria for preparing a WSA as it includes 737 proposed dwelling units.
COUNCIL AGENDA: 6/3/25
FILE:
ITEM:
25-576
2.17 HONORABLE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL
May 12, 2025
Subject: San José Municipal Water System’s Water Supply Assessment for the 211- 281 River Oaks Parkway Project
The purpose of a WSA is to analyze and document sources of water supply, quantify water demands, evaluate drought impacts, and provide a comparison of water supply and demand so that a determination of water supply sufficiency can be made for large development projects in connection with City Council’s consideration of whether to approve the project. The WSA itself is not a project and is simply the initial step to determining whether a project is even possible on this site given the water supply.
Per Section 15155(b) of the California Environmental Quality Act Guidelines and Section 10910(g) of the California Water Code, the governing body of a public water system that will serve a “water demand project” must approve a water supply assessment at a regular or special meeting of the governing body. In its role as the governing body for Muni Water, the City Council is the appropriate decision-making body for approving the WSA prepared for the Project at a regular City Council meeting.
ANALYSIS
The WSA (Attachment) assesses whether Muni Water’s existing and future water supplies for the North San José/Alviso service area would be adequate to meet the Project’s projected water demands. Muni Water historically provided potable water to the site’s original commercial development, and will be supplying both potable and recycled water to the Project in the future.
The WSA projects the Project’s maximum water demands at approximately 99 acre-feet per year. Most of the project demand is associated with residential units and will be supplied by potable water. Recycled water is projected to be used for the landscaping demand.
The Project’s water demands for expected 2030 completion fall into growth forecasts for residential water use identified in Muni Water’s 2020 Urban Water Management Plan.
Additionally, the Project’s water supply needs are partially offset by the existing water supply capacity which was historically used to meet the site’s original commercial buildings.
As discussed in the WSA, potable water is provided to Muni Water’s North San José service area from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. In 2009, Muni Water entered into both a master Water Supply Agreement (the agreement common to all Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency agencies), and a Water Sales Contract (specific to Muni Water) with the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. The City currently has a contract for up to 5,041 acre-feet per year (4.5 million gallons per day); this contract is both temporary and interruptible. The Water Supply Agreement with San Francisco Public Utilities Commission was amended and restated in 2018 and 2021 and now will remain in place until June 30, 2034.
HONORABLE MAYOR AND CITY COUNCIL
May 12, 2025
Subject: San José Municipal Water System’s Water Supply Assessment for the 211- 281 River Oaks Parkway Project
EVALUATION AND FOLLOW-UP
No additional follow-up action with the City Council is expected at this time.
COORDINATION
This memorandum was coordinated with the City Attorney’s Office and the Department of Planning, Building, and Code Enforcement.
PUBLIC OUTREACH
This memorandum will be posted on the City’s Council Agenda website for the June 3, 2025 Council Meeting.
COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION/INPUT
The WSA was not coordinated with any City commissions.
CEQA
Statutorily Exempt, File No. PP17-001, Feasibility and Planning Studies; CEQA Guidelines Section 15262.
PUBLIC SUBSIDY REPORTING
This item does not include a public subsidy as defined in section 53083 or 53083.1 of the California Government Code or the City’s Open Government Resolution.
/s/
JEFF PROVENZANO
Director, Environmental Services
For questions, please contact Nicole Harvie, Principal Engineer, Environmental Services Department, at (408) 277-3671.
ATTACHMENT
Draft Water Supply Assessment
DRAFT
WATER SUPPLY ASSESSMENT
211 -281 RIVER OAKS PARKWAY
RESIDENTIAL PROJECT, SAN JO SÉ
April 2025
1301 Marina Village Parkway, Suite 320
Alameda, CA 94501
510.747.6920
www.toddgroundwater.com
Attachment - Draft Water Supply As sessment
Table of Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1
2. PROJECT WATER DEMAND ................................................................................................ 3
3. SAN JOSÉ MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEM DEMAND .............................................................. 5
4. SAN JOSÉ MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEM WATER SUPPLY .................................................... 7
5. COMPARISON OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND ........................................................................ 12
6. CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................. 13
7. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 14 List of Tables
Table 1. Estimation of Future Potable Water Demand, Project Table 2. Estimation of Landscaping Irrigation Demand, Project Table 3. Local Climate Data
Table 4. Current and Projected Population and Employment in SJMWS Service Area Table 5. Historical Water Demand by Water Use Sector (AFY) Table 6. Projected Water Demand by Water Use Sector (AFY) Table 7. Current Water Supply (AFY)
Table 8. Projected Water Supply (AFY)
Table 9. Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY) Table 10. Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY) Table 11. Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY) List of Figures
Figure 1. Project Location and Service Area Boundaries
Figure 2. 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Conceptual Site Plan Draft WSA – River Oaks Project i TODD GROUNDWATER
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 1 TODD GROUNDWATER
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
This Water Supply Assessment (WSA) was prepared for the 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Project (River Oaks or Project) in the City of San José on behalf of River Oaks Housing Partners, LLC. The Project will redevelop a vacant and underutilized site in the heart of a residential neighborhood. River Oaks proposes a mixture of residential housing options, including: 100 townhomes, 505 market-rate apartments, 130 affordable apartments, and two market-rate manager units for a total of 737 dwelling units situated on the 9.67 acre project site. (The actual site area is 9.82 acres, and the Project includes widening a road that will reduce the total lot area by 0.15 acres). The Project location is shown in Figure 1.
Affordable housing units would range in size from 360 to 1,037 square feet, market-rate from 536 to 1,290 square feet, and townhomes from 1,230 to 1,790 square feet. Affordable and market-rate housing would include a mix of studio, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom, and 3- bedroom units, while townhomes would be a composition of 2- and 3-bedroom units. Figure 2 shows the Project conceptual site plan.
This WSA provides technical support to the City of San José, the lead agency in complying with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and developing an Environmental Impact Report (EIR) for the Project. The WSA focuses on availability of sustainable water supply for the proposed Project. The Project is located within the San José Municipal Water System’s (SJMWS) Alviso and North San José service area.
1.2. BACKGROUND
The California Water Code section 10910 (also termed Senate Bill 610 or SB610) requires that a water supply assessment (WSA) be provided to cities and counties for projects (of a specified type and size) that are subject to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).
Under the California Water Code Section 10912, a residential or commercial “project” is any of the following:
• A proposed residential development of more than 500 dwelling units • A proposed shopping center or business establishment employing more than 1,000 persons or having more than 500,000 units square feet of floor space • A mixed-use project that includes one or more of the projects specified in Section 10912
• A project that would demand an amount of water equal to, or greater than, the amount of water required by a 500-dwelling unit project.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 2 TODD GROUNDWATER
The River Oaks Project includes 737 dwelling units, which meets the criteria of more than 500 dwelling units and thus requires preparation of a WSA.
The City of San José recognizes the River Oaks Project as subject to CEQA and SB610. Cities and counties are mandated to identify the public water system that might provide the Project’s water supply and then to request a WSA, which includes a discussion regarding whether the public water system’s total projected water supplies (available in normal, single dry, and multiple dry years during a 20-year projection) will meet the projected water demand associated with the proposed Project in addition to the public water system’s existing and planned future uses. The SJMWS is the public water provider for River Oaks and the water supply and demand information for the SJWMS is presented herein.
A foundational document for preparation of the WSA is the City of San José Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP). The 2020 UWMP, which was adopted in June 2021, is available and relevant data have been updated by the City where applicable. WSAs and UWMPs both require water supply reliability information to be provided for the water service area in five- year increments over a 20-year planning horizon.
1.3. PURPOSE
The purpose of this WSA is to document the City’s existing and future water supplies for its SJMWS service area and compare them to the area’s future water demand including that of the proposed Project. This comparison, conducted for both normal and drought conditions, is the basis for an assessment of water supply sufficiency in accordance with the requirements of California Water Code section 10910 (Senate Bill 610).
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 3 TODD GROUNDWATER
2. PROJECT WATER DEMAND
This section addresses water demands for the proposed land uses. The primary water uses for this project will be for domestic usage and irrigation. The Project includes three groups of buildings, with the following configurations:
• 100 townhomes, including:
o 50 two-bedroom units
o 50 three-bedroom units
• 505 market-rate apartments, including:
o 54 Studio units
o 325 one-bedroom units
o 101 two-bedroom units
o 25 three-bedroom units
• 130 affordable apartments
o 28 Studio units
o 32 one-bedroom units
o 35 two-bedroom units
o 35 three-bedroom units
The project has two additional market-rate two-bedroom manager units within the affordable apartment building. Additional amenities include a greenbelt, playgrounds, two leasing offices, and a fitness clubroom.
2.1. EXISTING WATER USE
The proposed River Oaks site includes three existing vacant office buildings, parking, a courtyard, and landscaping. Although the existing use may include minor irrigation, water use over the past five years has been minimal and for this WSA, it is assumed to be 0 AFY.
Although the site has used a negligible amount of water in recent history, the original site was developed with five 2-inch water meters plus two 8-inch fire services to meet water needs for three commercial buildings totaling approximately 164,606 square feet, including landscape irrigation. The existing distribution system and water supply capacity historically developed to meet these commercial needs would be replaced by demands associated with the subject project.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 4 TODD GROUNDWATER
2.2. PROPOSED PROJECT WATER DEMAND
The proposed Project would require an estimated 95.7 acre-feet per year for indoor residential demand (Table 1) and an additional 3.2 acre-feet per year for landscaping demand (Table 2).
The Project site would be developed in three phases with construction beginning in the fourth quarter of 2026 and expected completion in 2030. For the purposes of this WSA, the Project construction is assumed to be completed by 2030 for comparison to the 2030 growth projections shown in the SJMWS 2020 UWMP.
The potable water demand was calculated using an estimated number of occupants per unit and an estimated per-capita indoor consumption. Number of occupants per unit is assumed to be 1 for studio apartments, and 2.98 for all other units, which is the 2019-2023 average persons per household for the City of San José (US Census Bureau, n.d.). The estimated per- capita water consumption is based on the California Water Code Standards for Indoor Residential Water Use for 2030 of 42 GPCD (Cal. Water Code §10609.4, 2024), based on the expected project completion in 2030.
The landscaping irrigation demand – assumed to be supplied by recycled water – was calculated using the Simplified Landscape Irrigation Demand Estimation (SLIDE) method (ASABE, 2017). The SLIDE equation is:
𝐿andscape Water Demand (𝑔al) = 𝐸To × 𝑃F × 𝐿A × 0.623
Where:
ETo is reference evapotranspiration in inches
PF is the plant factor
LA is the landscape area (in square-feet)
0.623 is the factor to convert inches of water to gallons
The parameters and results used in the SLIDE calculation are shown in Table 2.
2.3. FUTURE WATER CONSERVATION
River Oaks will utilize water-efficient plumbing fixtures and use native and adaptive species to reduce irrigation demand.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 5 TODD GROUNDWATER
3. SAN JOSE MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEM DEMAND
This section summarizes water demands for the SJMWS service area, the retailer for the proposed Project area. The first part describes the factors affecting total water demand, including climate, population, and employment, plus the mix of customer types, such as residential, commercial, and industrial. The second part documents water demands, not only under normal climatic conditions, but also during drought.
Figure 1 shows the SJMWS service areas and the Project location in the North San José portion of the SJMWS service area.
3.1. CLIMATE
Climate has a considerable influence on water demand on a seasonal and annual basis. This influence increases with the portion of water demand for outside uses, specifically landscape irrigation.
Table 3 summarizes representative climate data for the City, including average monthly and annual rainfall and evapotranspiration (ETO) from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS), Union City station (CIMIS, 2025). The City has a semi-arid, Mediterranean climate, characterized by dry summers and wet winters with year-round moderate-to-warm temperatures. Reflecting this pattern, water demand in the City is greater in the summer than in the winter.
As it would for the entire region, climate change may affect future water supply availability for the City by reducing water availability, changing local precipitation patterns, and increasing water demands. As discussed in greater detail below, the SJMWS largely relies on imported water sources plus some groundwater but is increasing its recycled water as a reliable supply source for non-potable uses and to help offset potable water use for non- potable demand.
3.2. POPULATION
City population, a key factor in water demand, is analyzed in the 2020 UWMP. Table 4 reproduces the UWMP population and employment values for the City’s entire water service area with projections to 2045.
3.3. CURRENT WATER USE SECTORS AND WATER DEMAND
Table 5 documents the historical water demand for the City’s entire service area by water use sectors for 2020 from the most recent UWMP. The water use sectors (customer types) Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 6 TODD GROUNDWATER
are listed on the left. Recycled water demand in 2020 was 4,097 AFY with recycled water used for non-potable irrigation and industrial uses (such as cooling towers).
3.4. PROJECTED WATER DEMAND
Table 6 summarizes the projected water demands for the SJMWS service area from 2025 to 2045. This table is from the SJMWS 2020 UWMP. The 21,643 AFY used in 2020 (Table 5) is expected to almost double to 40,965 AFY by 2045.
The projected water demand is primarily based on population growth and land use projections, as indicated in the San José Envision General Plan (2010). It was assumed in the 2010 General Plan that the water demand would increase in proportion to population and employment. The 2020 UMWP has incorporated per capita water demand reduction due to conservation, particularly for residential customers. The potable demand for this project is within the increase projected by the General Plan and UWMP.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 7 TODD GROUNDWATER
4. SAN JOSE MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEM WATER SUPPLY
4.1. WATER SUPPLY
The water supply for the North San José/Alviso area currently is provided primarily by the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC) Hetch Hetchy water system, with local groundwater serving as a backup water supply. Recycled water has been used in the area since 1999. Proposed sources of water supply for the area include additional imported water from the Hetch Hetchy water system, groundwater from the Santa Clara Valley groundwater basin (which is managed by Valley Water in collaboration with local water agencies), and additional recycled water. In addition, water conservation is anticipated to reduce water demand from current projected amounts.
4.2. WHOLESALE WATER SUPPLY
4.2.1. SFPUC
North San José/Alviso is provided water from the SFPUC Hetch Hetchy pipeline by means of two turnouts. In 2009, SJMWS accepted both a master Water Supply Agreement (the agreement common to all Bay Area Water Supply and Conservation Agency (BAWSCA) agencies), and a Water Sales Contract (specific to SJMWS). The City of San José currently has a contract for up to 5,041 AFY (4.5 million gallons per day or MGD); this contract is both temporary and interruptible. The Water Supply Agreement with SFPUC was amended and restated in 2018 and 2021 and will remain in place until June 30, 2034.
The supply for the City of San José is interruptible but the supply cannot be interrupted until ten years after San José has received notice of SFPUC’s intention to reduce or interrupt deliveries. San José, SFPUC, and BAWSCA continue to work on long-term reliable water supply strategies to ensure sufficient and reliable water supply for the region.
As part of the Water Supply Agreement, SJMWS may purchase excess water, providing that the combined purchases of SJMWS and the City of Santa Clara do not exceed nine MGD.
SJMWS is committed to purchasing the maximum amount of water available and reducing its reliance on other sources due to the uncertainties regarding the availability and sustainability of the groundwater basin. Links to the most recent Water Supply Agreement and Water Sales Contract are included in the references.
4.3. GROUNDWATER SUPPLY (VALLEY WATER)
Groundwater has long been a source of supply for SJMWS. Groundwater is available from the Santa Clara subbasin, which is managed by Valley Water and other agencies. SJMWS Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 8 TODD GROUNDWATER
currently operates groundwater production wells in the Coyote Valley and Santa Clara Plain management areas, which together compose the larger Santa Clara subbasin. The locations of the subbasin boundaries are provided in Figure 1. The City of San José currently has four wells in the Project’s North San José service area, two of which are permitted for active use; additional City wells located in other service areas are not able to provide water supply to the Project’s service area.
4.3.1. Santa Clara Valley Groundwater Basin
Most SJMWS service areas, including North San José, Evergreen, and Edenvale, overlie the Santa Clara subbasin, part of the larger Santa Clara Valley Groundwater Basin, designated by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) with groundwater basin number 2-9.02 (DWR, 2004). The Santa Clara subbasin occupies a structural trough between the Diablo Range on the east and the Santa Cruz Mountains on the west. It extends from the northern border of Santa Clara County to Coyote Narrows. The Santa Clara valley is drained to the north by tributaries to San Francisco Bay including Coyote Creek and the Guadalupe River.
The principal water bearing formations of the Santa Clara subbasin are alluvial deposits of unconsolidated to semi-consolidated gravel, sand, silt, and clay (DWR, 2004; Valley Water, 2021). The permeability of the valley alluvium is generally high and most large production wells derive their water from it (DWR, 1975). The southern portion and margins of the subbasin are unconfined areas, characterized by permeable alluvial fan deposits. A confined zone is created by an extensive clay aquitard in the northern portion of the subbasin (SCVWD, 2001; Valley Water, 2021). This aquitard divides the water-bearing units into an upper zone and a lower zone; the latter is tapped by most of the local wells.
Groundwater in the Santa Clara subbasin is recharged through natural infiltration along stream channels and by direct percolation of precipitation. In addition, SCVWD maintains an active artificial recharge program. Groundwater flow generally is from the margins of the basin toward San Francisco Bay.
4.3.2. Water Resources Management
Valley Water is the groundwater management agency in Santa Clara County (as authorized by the California legislature under the Santa Clara Valley Water District Act) and has the primary responsibility for managing the Santa Clara Valley groundwater basin. Valley Water has worked for decades to minimize subsidence and protect groundwater resources through artificial recharge of the groundwater basin, water conservation, acquisition of surface water and imported water supplies, and prevention of water waste.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 9 TODD GROUNDWATER
The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), passed in 2014, required medium and high priory basins to establish Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSA) and to prepare Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) or Alternatives to GSPs (Alternative Plan).
Santa Clara subbasin is a high priority basin that is not critically over drafted. SGMA listed Valley Water as one of 18 exclusive agencies to comply with SGMA; Valley Water is the sole GSA for the Santa Clara subbasin. Valley Water submitted their 2016 Groundwater Management Plan (GWMP) as their first Alternative Plan to DWR in 2016. In 2021, Valley Water submitted an updated GWMP to fulfill the periodic evaluation of the Alternative Plan under SGMA. The 2021 GWMP (Valley Water, 2021) contains detailed information about groundwater management, hydrogeological conceptual model of the basin, an update of basin conditions (including groundwater levels and water quality, conjunctive water management plans, basin management programs (including minimum thresholds), and detailed descriptions of their monitoring networks (Valley Water, 2021).
Valley Water is dedicated to providing a reliable water supply to the people and businesses of Santa Clara County. In order to meet these water needs in the future and manage potential risk; Valley Water maintains a flexible management of the water resources. The groundwater supply management program is intended to replenish the groundwater basin, sustain the basin’s water supplies, prevent groundwater overdraft (including saltwater intrusion and subsidence), and sustain storage reserves for use during dry periods. Valley Water operates artificial recharge systems to augment groundwater supply. Valley Water also conserves local surface water, provides imported water, operates water treatment plants, maintains water conveyance systems, supports water recycling, and encourages water conservation. Valley Water works to maintain each subbasin at “full” capacity, banking water locally to protect against drought or emergency water supply interruptions.
This strategy allows Valley Water to carry over surplus water in the subbasins from wet to dry periods.
4.3.3. Available Groundwater
The total available groundwater in a normal year, or sustainable yield, of the Santa Clara Subbasin is determined by Valley Water. While Valley Water is the Groundwater Sustainability Agency and responsible for overseeing the sustainable operation of the basin, they do not directly provide groundwater to retailers like SJMWS. Valley Water maintains local sources, recharge ponds, and imported water contracts as active tools in the operation of the basin (Valley Water, 2021).
SJMWS - North San José
The City of San José currently has four wells in North San José (the area of the proposed project). The wells, installed in 1981 and 1983, are 600 to 615 feet in depth with screens Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 10 TODD GROUNDWATER
generally between 200 and 615 feet in depth. The combined capacity of the four wells is reported at 6,500 gpm (City of San José, 2021). However, only two of the wells are active wells in routine use, while the other two are maintained and permitted as a backup, emergency supply source. No additional wells would be needed to meet the small potable demand for the proposed project.
No entitlement or water rights to groundwater are indicated because the Santa Clara Valley groundwater basin has not been adjudicated and groundwater entitlements or rights have not otherwise been defined.
4.4. RECYCLED WATER
The City of San José operates the South Bay Water Recycling (SBWR) system and distributes recycled water produced at the San José-Santa Clara Water Regional Wastewater Facility located in Alviso. The SBWR program delivers disinfected tertiary treated wastewater from the RWF through an extensive recycled water distribution system consisting of over 150 miles of pipeline. The recycled water is used for non-potable purposes such as agriculture; industrial cooling and processing; and irrigation of golf courses, parks, and schools. During the peak summer season, SBWR diverts between 15 and 20 MGD of recycled water for irrigation and industrial uses to over 900 customers throughout San José, Santa Clara, and Milpitas (City of San José, 2021). This WSA assumes that irrigation demands will be served by recycled water.
SJMWS currently has programs in place to encourage the use of more recycled water, including:
• Lower cost of recycled water than potable water.
• Regulatory approval for recycled water usage.
• Ordinances requiring the use of recycled water for irrigation where available. • Prohibition against the use of potable water for uses appropriate to recycled water. • Support for developers’ expansion of system to areas where recycled water is unavailable.
4.5. WATER SUPPLY IN NORMAL AND DROUGHT PERIODS
Table 7 summarizes current water supply sources by volume in 2020 and Table 8 shows projected water supply reported in five-year increments in order to provide a long-term overview. As indicated, SJMWS has multiple sources for water supply in the project service area, which include imported water from SFPUC and from Valley Water, groundwater from the Santa Clara Valley groundwater basin, and recycled water. In addition, water conservation is anticipated to reduce water demand from current projected amounts.
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 11 TODD GROUNDWATER
While Tables 7 and 8 document past, current and future water supply under normal conditions, Tables 9, 10 and 11 quantify the amount of potable water supply during normal and drought conditions, for current conditions and for projected conditions within the SJMWS service area. These tables were presented in the SJWMS 2020 UWMP to document the expected changes in potable supplies. Recycled water supplies are not included in these tables as no change is expected from normal conditions.
Water supplies in a single dry year are shown in Table 10. During dry periods, a reduction of imported water volume from SFPUC is expected, based on their supply reliability analysis.
The relatively small differences between water supply and demand during a single dry year can reasonably be expected to be addressed through conservation measures. These measures are identified and discussed in SJMWS’ Water Shortage Contingency Plan (City of San José, 2021).
Table 11 shows the available potable water supplies for multiple dry years, similar to those that occurred from 1987 through 1992 and 2012 through 2015. As with the single dry year, SFPUC supplies would be reduced in line with the reliability analysis, 46 to 64 percent. Valley Water supplies, both imported water and groundwater, would also be reduced. However, Valley Water plans to manage the reductions through short term water conservation, use of reserves, and supplemental water sources.
In the first year of drought, Valley Water would rely on available reserves. In subsequent years, as reserves are depleted, Valley Water would need to rely on short-term water use reductions and supplemental supplies. SJMWS would coordinate regularly with Valley Water during any dry period to utilize supplies which are most readily available (City of San José, 2021).
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5. COMPARISON OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
The WSA must compare supply and demand for the groundwater basin where the Project is located. Tables 9, 10, and 11 show water supply projections for the SJMWS Service Area in five-year increments to 2045 for normal, single-dry, and multiple-dry years, respectively.
The tables exclude recycled water, which is drought resilient and 100 percent available in all years. Tables 9, 10, and 11 are based on the assumptions outlined in the UWMP and summarized in Section 4.5. While the demand is expected to be higher than the project supply, the small shortfalls will be resolved through water conservation and programs detailed in the Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP).
The project is part of the General Plan (City of San José, 2010) and the projected growth of multi-family residential demand that is shown in Table 6. Over the 2020 to 2030 period, SJMWS projects an increase in population of more than 35,000 residents (Table 4); an increase in water demand of 7,969 AFY (Tables 5 & 6); and an increase in supply of 7,969 AFY, including an increase in potable water of 6,610 AFY (Tables 7 & 8). Over the 2020 to 2045 period, population is projected to grow by over 90,000 residents (Table 4); water demand increases by 19,322 AFY (Tables 5 & 6); and water supply increases by 19,322 AFY (Tables 7 & 8), including an increase in potable water of 16,006 AFY.
Potable and recycled water supplies are sufficient to meet the Project’s estimated demand of 98.9 AFY, which is 0.33% of the projected SJMWS water demand for 2030 and 0.24% of projected SJMWS water demand for 2045. The proposed project will use water-efficient fixtures and appliances, and native and adapted plant species to minimize water demand, as such the demand is not expected to significantly vary between different water year types.
Based on the assumed number of residents per unit (1 for studios and 2.98 for all other units), the estimated population of the Project is 2,034 people. This increase in population falls within the projected 2030 population growth in the SJMWS 2020 UWMP (35,000 people). The Project is estimated to contribute 5.7% of the projected population growth by 2030. The estimated water demand of the Project is 1.2% of the projected 2030 water demand increase.
SJMWS has adequate resources to meet the water demands for its growing population and has taken measures to decrease its per capita water use. There are enough water resources for the proposed project for normal, single dry, and multiply dry years during the 20-year projection.
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6. CONCLUSIONS
Findings of this WSA are summarized below.
• The River Oaks Parkway Project is located in the City of San José. • The proposed development encompasses 9.67 acres of residential housing, with a mixture of affordable and market-rate apartments and townhomes. • A WSA as per SB610 is required because the project has more than 500 residences. • SJMWS, the Project water supply retailer, has a water supply portfolio including local groundwater, imported water from SFPUC and/or Valley Water, and recycled water.
• The Project is within the projected growth of the San José Envision General Plan (2010)
• Sufficient water supplies are available to serve the Project’s demands Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 14 TODD GROUNDWATER
7. REFERENCES
California Department of Water Resources (DWR), Santa Clara Valley Groundwater Basin, https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/Groundwater- Management/Bulletin-118/Files/2003-Basin-
Descriptions/2_009_02_SantaClaraSubbasin.pdf, February 2004.
California Department of Water Resources (DWR), 2018, 2018 Basin Prioritization, https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/Groundwater- Management/Basin-Prioritization/Files/2018-SGMA-Basin-Prioritization-Process-and- Results-Document_ay_19.pdf, 2018.
California Department of Water Resources (DWR), 2020, 2019 SWP Delivery Capability Report, https://www.ccwa.com/files/49ebfee1b/final_dcr_2019_wiletters+%281%29.pdf, August 2020.
California Department of Water Resources (DWR), Evaluation of groundwater Resources South San Francisco Bay Volume III Northern Santa Clara County Area: Bulletin 118-1, December 1975.
California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS), 2025, station 171 Union City http://www.cimis.water.ca.gov/, station 171 Union City, Last accessed: January 2025.
City of San José, Envision San José 2040 General Plan Update WSA, September 2010.
City of San José, Urban Water Management Plan, June 2021.
San Francisco Public Utility Commission (SFPUC), Amended and Restated Water Supply Agreement between the City and County of San Francisco and Wholesale Customers in Alameda County, San Mateo County and Santa Clara County, https://records.sanjoseca.gov/Contracts/CON634897-002.pdf San Francisco Public Utility Commission (SFPUC), Water Sales Contract between City and County of San Francisco and City of San José,
https://records.sanjoseca.gov/Contracts/CON6348980.PDF
San José Municipal Water System, Urban Water Management Plan 2020, June 2021.
Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD), Santa Clara Valley Water District Groundwater Management Plan, July 2001.
Valley Water, Groundwater Management Plan for Santa Clara and Llagas Subbasins, 2021. https://s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/valleywater.org.us-west-1/s3fs- public/2021_GWMP.pdf
Draft WSA – River Oaks Project 15 TODD GROUNDWATER
California Water Code, §10609.4. (2025). Accessed: Feb 25, 2025, https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displayText.xhtml?lawCode=WAT&division=6 .&title=&part=2.55.&chapter=9.&article=
American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE). (2017). Determining Landscape Plant Water Demands. ASAE/ANSI S623.1.
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). QuickFacts: San Jose city, California. U.S. Census Bureau.
Accessed: Feb 25, 2025, from:
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/sanjosecitycalifornia State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State — January 1, 2021-2024. Sacramento, California, May 2024.
TABLES
Table 1. Estimation of Future Potable Water Demand, Project
Unit Type
Total Count1
Estimated
Indoor Water
Use (GPCD)2
Assumed
Number of
Residents3
Annual Indoor
Water
Demand (Gal)
Annual Indoor
Water
Demand (AFY)
Studio 82 42 1 1,257,060 3.9
One-Bedroom 357 42 2.98 16,308,974 50.1
Two-Bedroom 188 42 2.98 8,588,479 26.4
Three-Bedroom 110 42 2.98 5,025,174 15.4
TOTAL 737 31,179,687 95.7
Notes:
1. Source: Table 2-2 from River Oaks Gateway Project Draft EIR
2. Estimated GPCD based on California Water Code Urban Water Management Planning §10609.4 residential standards for 2030
3. Number of residents assumed based on average household occupants from CA State Dept of Finance Table E-5. For studio apartments, 1 occupant is assumed
Table 2. Estimation of Landscaping Irrigation Demand, Project
Parameter Unit Value
Average Annual ETo1 inches 45.40
Plant Factor2 unitless 0.50
Landscaping Area square-feet 74,127
Irrigation Demand gallons per year 1,048,872
Irrigation Demand acre-feet per year 3.2
Notes:
1. 2010-2024 average annual ETo for CIMIS station 171, Union City
2. Assumed plant factor is for trees, shrubs, and herbaceous perennials in arid conditions
Table 3. Local Climate Data
Month
Average Total
Monthly
Evapotranspiration
(2010-2024)
Average Total
Monthly
Precipitation (in)
(2010-2024)
Average Temperature
(F) (2010-2024)
Average Minimum
Temperature (F)
(2010-2024)
Average Maximum
Temperature (F)
(2010-2024)
January 1.4 3.1 48.8 39.7 59.7
February 2.0 2.3 50.8 40.6 62.1
March 3.2 2.8 53.6 43.9 64.1
April 4.6 1.4 56.6 47.2 67.4
May 5.4 0.5 58.9 50.6 69.6
June 6.2 0.1 62.9 54.0 74.7
July 6.4 0.0 64.8 56.4 76.4
August 5.6 0.0 65.2 56.9 77.0
September 4.4 0.1 64.5 54.9 77.3
October 3.2 0.8 61.0 49.9 74.4
November 1.7 1.6 53.0 42.6 65.1
December 1.3 3.8 48.8 39.6 59.3
Annual 45.4 16.6 57.4 48.0 68.9
Source: California Irrigation Management Information Systems (https://cimis.water.ca.gov/) from Station 171, Union City
Table 4. Current and Projected Population and Employment in SJMWS Service Area
Year 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Population 132,644 150,368 168,092 194,985 217,685 222,661 Jobs 90,001 94,006 95,626 100,473 111,355 118,367
Source: UWMP 2020 Tables 3-2, 3-3
Table 5. Historical Water Demand by Water Use Sector (AFY)
Water Use Sector
Actual 2020 Water Demand (AFY)
Level of Treatment
when delivered
Volume (AFY)
Single-Family Residential Drinking Water 7,920
Multi-Family Residential Drinking Water 2,694
Commercial Drinking Water 1,040
Industrial Drinking Water 1,837
Institutional/Government Drinking Water 176
Landscape Irrigation Drinking Water 2,873
System Losses/Fire Service 1,006
Recycled Water Non Potable Water 4,097
TOTAL 21,643
Source: 2020 UWMP Tables 4-1, 4-3
Table 6. Projected Water Demand by Water Use Sector (AFY)
Customer Type Projected Water Demand (AFY)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Potable Demand
Single-Family Residential 9,107 10,293 10,917 12,338 12,621 Multi-Family Residential 2,932 3,171 3,463 3,763 3,849
Commercial/Institutional 1,642 1,920 2,436 3,376 3,446
Industrial 2,562 3,197 4,086 5,546 5,665
Institutional/Governmental 208 239 286 356 365
Landscape Irrigation 3,401 3,930 4,586 5,584 5,712
Losses 1,228 1,406 1,569 1,852 1,894
Non-Potable Demand
Recycled Water 4,776 5,456 6,279 7,368 7,413
TOTAL 25,856 29,612 33,622 40,183 40,965
Source: 2020 UWMP Table 4-2 (with recycled water)
Table 7. Current Water Supply (AFY)
Supply Type
Existing Water Supply
(AFY)
2020
Groundwater 885
Imported - Valley Water 11,930
Imported SFPUC 4,731
Recycled Water 4,097
TOTAL 21,643
Source: 2020 UWMP Table 6-9
Table 8. Projected Water Supply (AFY)
Supply Type Projected Water Supply (AFY)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Potable Supply (Valley Water,
Groundwater, SFPUC)* 21,080 24,156 27,343 32,815 33,552 Recycled Water Supply - System wide* 4,776 5,456 6,279 7,368 7,413 TOTAL 25,856 29,612 33,622 40,183 40,965
Source: 2020 UWMP Table 6-10
Table 9. Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Normal Year
Supply totals 21,080 24,156 27,343 32,815 33,552
Demand totals 21,080 24,156 27,343 32,815 33,552
Difference 0 0 0 0 0
Notes: Table excludes recycled water which is 100% available in all years Source: 2020 UWMP Table 7-5
Table 10. Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Single Dry Year
Supply totals 19,265 22,330 25,505 30,977 31,257
Demand totals 21,080 24,156 27,342 32,814 33,553
Difference (1,815) (1,826) (1,837) (1,837) (2,296)
Notes: Table excludes recycled water which is 100% available in all years Source: 2020 UWMP Table 7-6
Difference is expected to be made up through the Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP)
Table 11. Multiple Dry Years Supply and Demand Comparison, Potable (AFY)
2025 2030 2035 2040
First Year
Supply Totals 19,265 22,330 25,505 30,977
Demand Totals 21,080 24,156 27,342 32,814
Difference (1,815) (1,826) (1,837) (1,837)
Second Year
Supply Totals 19,421 22,508 26,140 30,666
Demand Totals 21,695 24,793 28,437 32,962
Difference (2,274) (2,285) (2,297) (2,296)
Third Year
Supply Totals 20,036 23,145 27,235 30,813
Demand Totals 22,310 25,431 29,531 33,110
Difference (2,274) (2,286) (2,296) (2,297)
Fourth Year
Supply Totals 20,652 23,783 28,329 30,636
Demand totals 22,926 26,068 30,626 33,258
Difference (2,274) (2,285) (2,297) (2,622)
Fifth Year
Supply Totals 21,267 24,420 29,200 30,784
Demand Totals 23,541 26,705 31,720 33,405
Difference (2,274) (2,285) (2,520) (2,621)
Notes: Table excludes recycled water which is 100% available in all years Source: 2020 UWMP Table 7-7
Difference is expected to be made up through the Water Shortage Contingency Plan (WSCP)
FIGURES
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Alviso & North San Jose Service Areas
Evergreen Service Area
Edenvale and Coyote Valley Service Areas
TODD
GROUNDWATER
Figure 1
Project Location with
Municipal Water System
Service Areas
BUILDING FRONTGATE CALCULATION:
RIVER OAKS PARKWAY
BUILDING FRONTAGE WITHIN 5' FROM EASEMENT:
124'-0" + 387'-5" = 511'-5"
STREET FRONTAGE LENGTH= 627'-11"
BUILDING FRONTAGE PERCENTAGE= 511'-5'' / 627'-11" = 81%
CISCO WAY
BUILDING FRTONGATE WITHIN 5' FROM SETBACK:
19'-7" + 66'-9" + 19'-7" + 219'-10" = 325'-9"
STREET FRONTAGE LENGTH= 504'-5"
Source:
City of San Jose, 2024, Draft Environmental Impact Report for the 211-281 River Oaks Parkway Residential Project (Figure 2 -5) March 2025
TODD
GROUNDWATER
Figure 2
211-281 River Oaks Parkway
Conceptual Site Plan