(d) 1: City Council Focus Area Status Report:
Reducing Unsheltered Homelessness
Executing Work While Building the Infrastructure for LongTerm Impact Neighborhood Services and Education Committee
December 11, 2025
City of San José
City Manager’s Office
Lee Wilcox, Assistant City Manager, Reducing Unsheltered Homelessness Erik L. Soliván, Director, Housing
Jon Cicirelli, Director, Parks, Recreation, and Neighborhood Services 1 Focus Areas 2.0 – City Council Approved Evolution
Agenda
1 2
3 Execution as Learning – Focus Area Portfolio Update
What’s Next? Focus Areas and the Fiscal Year (FY) 2026-2027 Budget Process
2 We are cultivating an organizational mindset
of learning and continuous improvement that
will drive results for our community
While data support storytelling, numbers alone do not show progress and require context setting
Learning in public builds trust and accountability
Retrospection contributes to learning and understanding Progress requires humility, iteration, and commitment (and psychological safety for execution)
3 Focus Area 2.0 – City Council Approved Evolution
Philosophy Behind 2.0
We are cultivating an organizational mindset of
learning and continuous improvement…with
different types of questions
What are we seeing in our metrics to date? How are we making sense of what we’re seeing?
What are we learning?
What are we observing? What are we missing? What’s
getting in the way?
What kind of support would be helpful?
What will we adjust in the next cycle to have the most impact? 4 Focus Area 2.0 – City Council Approved Evolution
Philosophy Behind 2.0
Logic models are the backbone
of Focus Areas 2.0
They help us clarify how our work is
intended to create impact by clearly aligning
strategies with problems and articulating
testable assumptions that we can learn from
and adapt to.
5 Each near-term goal has
success measures that
help tell the story of
whether the change
initiatives within the goal
are making an impact;
they serve as feedback
loops. In addition to a
goal’s success
measure(s), individual
change initiatives have
operational measures to
track progress.
Indicators measure progress
towards long-term goals. Indicators
NearTerm
Goals
Near-term goals are things the City aims to get done over the next fiscal year to help reach bigger, long-term goals. They are clear, measurable, and realistic, and help guide the day-to-day work of City departments.
These goals include early signs of progress that show what’s working, what’s not, and where changes might be needed.
Change initiatives are chosen for each near-term goal based on a hypothesis for how they can help the City achieve the goal. Some may involve work the team has done successfully before but needs to be assessed, while others may be new ideas worth testing.
Metrics
Long-term goals focus on big-picture results that matter to residents (outcomes). These goals look at past outcomes to show how the city is doing over time. The progress is measured with clear indicators.
Long-Term
Goal
Problem
These are common, well-understood challenges that help explain what’s needed to reach long-term goals. Each problem connects clearly to a near-term goal and a project that you think can help fix it. 6 Focus Area 2.0 – City Council Approved Evolution
Logic Model Structure
Focus Area 2.0 – City Council Approved Evolution
Building the Infrastructure for Long-Term Impact (June – December 2025) Month (2025)
July -
September
Activities focused on people, processes, and technology to sustain new learning infrastructure September 30
Milestone Purpose
Council adoption of Model 2.0 Formalized governance and accountability structure
October -
November
Completion of retrospective trainings and dashboard buildouts • Provided retrospective trainings for execution leaders in each Focus Area; training on performance leadership
• Held first monthly retrospectives in each Focus Area
• Conducted user experience interviews for publish dashboards • Finalized data structure and collected data sets for dashboards Capacity building and operational
rollout
December Committee briefings and launch of first iteration of dynamic publish dashboards
Community learning
Completion of FY 2025-2026 logic models and retrospective training series • Conducted staff workshops and deep-dive consultations • Articulated Long-Term Goals, Problem Areas, Change Initiatives, and Near-Term Goals
• Established indicators and metrics to serve as feedback loops • Initiated implementation of select change initiatives Established foundations for shared
understanding and learning
Reducing Unsheltered
Homelessness Focus Area
8 Execution as Learning
Reducing Unsheltered Homelessness Focus Area
# of New Units Online
(705 by Calendar Year 2025)
Problem
Areas
Near-Term
Goals
(FY26)
Indicators
Long-Term Goal. Move toward functional zero in unsheltered homelessness by proactively and effectively managing the shelter system, increasing throughput into permanent housing, and improving data systems to guide investment.
Change
Initiatives
1. Shelter System Capacity
& Operations
2. Sustainable Funding 3. Environmental Compliance
& Public Spaces
1.1. Bring all planned 705 shelter units
online by the end of Calendar Year
2025.
1.2. Standardize shelter system
operations, budgets, and performance
metrics across all 24 sites to decrease
costs by up to 20% by June 2026.
1.3. Improve outreach & engagement
tracking to increase placements into
shelter, housing, and services.
2.1. Sustain and stabilize
diversified funding sources to
reduce reliance on one-time or
annual allocations.
2.2. Implement CalAIM billing for
eligible services to sustain
operations & reduce reliance on
General Fund.
3.1. Maintain environmental compliance
in 26 miles of priority waterways &
corridors by maintaining No-Encampment
Zones (NEZs), limiting re-encampment
and displacement impacts.
3.2. Maintain NEZs in public spaces
around Emergency Interim Housing sites
to limit re-encampment & ensure site
accessibility.
• Expand County Partnership on
Service Delivery & System
Alignment.
• Expand County Partnership on
Service Delivery & System
Alignment.
• Expand County Partnership on Service
Delivery & System Alignment.
4. Data & Forecasting
Infrastructure
4.1. Improve homelessness
forecasting and reporting tools.
4.2. Strengthen HMIS data
exchange with County and
deploy new reporting tools.
• Homelessness Data
Consolidation Project.
• Homelessness Forecasting
Tool.
Cost Reduction
(up to 20% across 24 sites)
No-Encampment Zones Maintained
(26 miles; ≤ 65 re-encampments/quarter in
waterway NEZs; ≥ 80% of re-encampments
resolved within NEZs in 2 business days)
Forecasting Tool Updates
(quarterly, multi-department data)
Reducing Unsheltered Homelessness Focus Area
Status Snapshot
PROBLEM AREA PROBLEM STATEMENT # GOAL STATUS UPDATE
7 of 9 sites open (415 units). Cherry (128 units / 136 beds) will come online Dec 10, with Cerone (162 units / 200
beds) following later in 2025.
On
Track
Bring all planned 705 shelter and safe
parking units online by end of CY2025.
The City continues to face a 1.1
shortfall in units and spaces
despite recent expansion.
1. Shelter System
Capacity &
Operations
Working to transition 6 of 24 sites to new providers,
including contract renegotiations and staffing model
adjustments to better align staffing across systems.
On
Track
Standardize shelter system operations,
budgets, and performance metrics across
all 24 sites to decrease costs by up to
20% by June 2026.
1.2 Finalized Enhanced Engagement Program staffing model, started hiring 4.0 FTE to team, and completed a GIS/ESRI needs assessment with the goal of collecting more timely geospatial data.
On
Track
Improve outreach & engagement tracking
to increase placements into programs,
services, shelter, and housing.
1.3 CalAIM setup requires new infrastructure and funding-flow alignment across the County, City, and health partners.
Ongoing County funding uncertainty means we are not on
track to launch these services within the current
timeframe.
Off
Track
Sustain and stabilize funding sources for
shelter and interim housing operations by
reducing reliance on one-time allocations
and implementing CalAIM billing for
eligible services.
2.1 2.2
The City’s shelter system lacks
stable, long-term revenue
sources.
2. Unsustainable
Funding
125 abatements in NEZs, with the first 30 days used as an educational grace period, only 45 post-Day 31
abatements counted (≤65 target). All re-encampments
were resolved within two business days; no grace period going forward in established NEZs.
On
Track
Maintain compliance & public space
cleanliness in 26 miles of priority
waterways and maintain NEZs citywide
around EIH sites, limiting re-encampment
& displacement impacts.
3.1 3.2
Sustaining clean waterways and
establishing No-Encampment
Zones around Emergency Interim
Housing sites remains difficult
with limited shelter capacity.
3. Environmental
Compliance &
Public Spaces
Data lakehouse, Salesforce integration, and HMIS
collaboration with the County are underway, but complex cross-jurisdiction systems may slow full use of these tools.
At-Risk
Improve homelessness forecasting and
strengthen HMIS data exchange with the
County.
4.1 4.2
The City lacks consistent and
reliable inflow-outflow data to
forecast homelessness.
4. Data &
Forecasting
Infrastructure
Problem Area 1:
Shelter System
Capacity &
Operations
What We’re
Learning
1. Rapid expansion of several new shelter sites
created significant operational limits and
coordination needs.*
2. Simultaneous work on coordinated entry reform
required deeper alignment with County and
providers.
3. Columbus Park activation highlighted the need for
real-time data sharing and daily tactical
coordination.
4. Managing expansion, transitions, and budget
pressures revealed complex interdependencies.
5. Key Insight: Major system changes cannot be
isolated: capacity, operations, and funding must be
aligned and governed together.
* For some sites, complex requirements with partner agencies (e.g., Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA)) have slowed activation timelines and require sustained coordination.
Problem Area 2:
Sustainable
Funding
What We’re
Learning
1. Budget reductions, contract realignment, and
subsidy layering efforts highlighted limits of Cityonly funding strategies.
2. Leveraging CalAIM requires coordinated service
delivery models tied to client acuity, not just contract changes.
3. Sustainable funding depends on shared
infrastructure: HMIS, service documentation, and
data integration with County systems.
4. Key Insight: Long-term financial sustainability
cannot be achieved without joint operational, data,
and funding alignment with the County.
Problem Area 3:
Environmental
Compliance
& Public Spaces
What We’re
Learning
1. Establishing 26 miles of No-Encampment Zones
exposed gaps in shelter capacity and system
readiness.
2. Abatements along the waterway triggered migration
to other parts of the city, requiring rapid shifts in
encampment management, outreach and
engagement strategies.
3. PRNS and Neighborhood Quality of Life teams face
pressure to monitor movement, sustain compliance,
and respond to re-encampments.
4. Key Insight: Enforcement alone cannot sustain
compliance: success depends on synchronized
outreach, ongoing monitoring, and coordinated
shelter placement.
Problem Area 4:
Data &
Forecasting
Infrastructure
What We’re
Learning
1. Forecasting efforts proved that accurate modeling
depends on consolidating departmental data into a
governed, shared environment.
2. Building the data lakehouse required deep
coordination on hosting, permissions, taxonomy,
and long-term maintenance.
3. ITD partnership and staff onboarding revealed the
level of technical capacity needed to sustain this
work.
4. Key Insight: Forecasting cannot advance without
strong data infrastructure and governance. The
foundation is as critical as the model itself.
What’s Next?
Focus Areas and the
FY 2026-2027 Budget
Process
15 What’s Next?
Focus Areas and the FY 2026-2027 Budget Process
January
Embedding Focus Area discussion into the Budget Process to ensure co-creation of strategies aimed to meet our Long-Term Goals Mayor’s March Message. Direction given through the Message will inform exploration/scoping of future focus area
work, that may include problem areas or
specific change initiatives for FY 2026-2027.
Any contemplated changes for the following
fiscal year should be explored in this context.
City Manager’s Proposed Budget. The Administration may propose change initiatives for FY 2026-2027, stemming from
learnings derived from current year’s
execution.
February March
April May June
June Budget Message. Through the adoption of the June Budget Message, the City Council will formally adopt
the Focus Area workplans for FY 2026-2027.
Priority Setting.
Staff will embed Focus Areas into the 2026-
2027 Preliminary General Fund Forecast and
Budget Priorities Study Session to cultivate a
discussion that supports the City Council
articulating its priorities (given budget
constraints and required reductions) in
advance of the Mayor’s March Message.
Budget Study Session. The Administration will embed Focus Area learnings into a Budget Study Session; this
will include recommended changes to the
following year’s Focus Area work.
Manager’s Budget Addendum (MBA). The Administration will publish an MBA that summarizes all feedback/ideas contemplated
through the budget process and establishes a
recommended path for FY 2026-2027.