Finance Committee
July 26, 2023

City of San Leandro
Finance Committee
Q1 Sales Tax Update
Thomas Adams July 26, 2023
2023 Q1 (Jan. – Mar. sales)
Sales Tax Performance
Top 25 Sales Tax Producers (annual thru Q1 2023)
(~ 47% of total sales tax from local businesses)
1 American Emperor NorCal Kenworth
Arco AM/PM Pacific Pride
Beacon Roofing Supply Peterson Power Systems
Chevron Peterson Tractor Company
Consolidated Electrical Distributors San Leandro Chrysler Jeep Dodge Ram Costco Wholesale San Leandro Honda
Edges Electrical Group San Leandro Hyundai/Kia
Enterprise Rent-a-Car Target Stores
F H Dailey Chevrolet The Ford Store
Ferguson Enterprises Trayer Engineering Corporation
Foundation Building Materials Walmart Stores
Home Depot Wine.Com
Independent Electrical Supply
City of San Leandro
Local Business Sales Tax Drivers
2 Primary Drivers
• Retail: 24%
• Business to Business: 22%
• Construction: 20%
• Transportation (Auto Sales & Gas Stations): 20%
• Food (Markets & Restaurants): 13%
Others
• Miscellaneous: 1%
San Leandro 1% Annual Sales Tax Performance –
Local Businesses and Net Pools
3 San Leandro - County Pool/Admin/Adjustments
4 Annual Net Pools Number
Quarterly Pools Number
San Leandro – Q1 Economic Performance
5 San Leandro – Sales Tax ‘Leakage’ Analysis
6 Sales Tax Future?
12 San Leandro 1% Sales Tax Forecast
7 San Leandro 1% Sales Tax Forecast
8 San Leandro 1/2% ‘Add-on’ Sales Tax Forecast
9 Sales Tax Forecast – Cloudy with Chance of Recession
10 • Economic conditions continue to show greater than usual uncertainty. • Greater uncertainty translates to greater potential variance for the forecast in upcoming years.
• Some of the areas of uncertainty include:
 How will gas prices adjust over the next several years?  How long/how much will inflation impact the economy?
 How will consumer behavior adjust to inflation & interest rates?  How will consumers balance taxable and non-taxable spending?  How will Fed interest rate adjustments affect economy?  How will California and Bay Area employment patterns look?  When will we achieve ‘new normal’ & what will it look like?  Does a recession/downturn loom somewhere on the horizon? 14 Thank you…Questions?