Economic Development
Strategy:
Preliminary Findings
Presentation to City of San Leandro Finance Committee
January 31st, 2024
Economic Development Strategy Overview
2 Objectives Timeline
Late Spring 2024:
Revise strategy; meet with City Council; finalize economic development strategy Spring 2024:
Community Workshop #2 to provide feedback on draft strategy Early 2024:
Develop preliminary findings, recommendations, and draft strategy October 2023 through January 2024:
Data analysis Community Workshop #1 Stakeholder conversations • Improve economic
opportunity for all San
Leandro businesses
and residents
• Understand and
respond to the impacts
of COVID-19 and new
trends, issues, and
opportunities
• Promote high-quality
jobs
We Are Here
Longstanding assets underpin San Leandro’s
economic opportunities
• Goods movement:
• 880 corridor access
• Port of Oakland proximity
• Oakland International
Airport proximity
• Industrial land supply and
building inventory
• Commute / workforce /
retail accessibility:
• 880 and 580
• East 14th Street
• BART stations
3 Source: East Bay Forward, East Bay EDA, 2021.
4 San Leandro is a regional jobs
destination
Among workers at jobs in San Leandro in
2020:
• 12% lived in Oakland
• 11% lived in San Leandro
• 6% lived in Hayward
• 71% commuted from other locations
Jobs in San Leandro have nearly returned to prepandemic levels, but job growth lags the East Bay as a whole
5 Source: Lightcast, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023
Note: Does not correspond to San Leandro city limits. Based on three San Leandro zip codes—94577, 94578, and 94579. 55,088 56,088 56,328 56,536
52,672 53,517 55,157
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
Total San Leandro
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jobs
Total Jobs in San Leandro, 2016 to 2022
4.30% 4.28%
4.25% 4.26% 4.26% 4.24%
4.21% 4.15%
4.20%
4.25%
4.30%
4.35%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
SL Share of East Bay
Jobs
San Leandro Jobs as Share of East Bay Total, 2016 to 2022 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Health Care and Social Assistance
Construction
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Public Sector
Transportation and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation Services
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
All Other Industries
Share of Jobs by Major Industry Sector in San Leandro vs. East Bay, 2022 San Leandro East Bay
Economic strengths include industries tied to
industrial lands and household-serving uses
6 Source: Lightcast, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023
Heavily
Concentrated
In San
Leandro
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Health Care and Social
Assistance
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation and
Warehousing
Finance and Insurance
Accommodation and Food
Services
Administrative and Support
and Waste Management
and Remediation Services
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500
Projected East Bay Job Growth, 2022-2027
San Leandro Jobs in Sector, 2022
Concentrated in SL & Declining in EB
Concentrated in SL & Growing in EB
Not Concentrated in SL & Declining in EB
Not Concentrated in SL & Growing in EB
Many of San Leandro’s largest and relatively
concentrated industries are projected to add jobs
regionally
8 Fewer San Leandro Jobs More San Leandro Jobs
Projected
EB Job
Growth
Projected
EB Job
Decline
Source: Lightcast, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023
Note: Excludes sectors with less than 500 jobs in 2022. Concentrated indicates a Location Quotient in San Leandro of at least 1.0 vs. the East Bay.
Primary economic opportunities include “legacy”
industries and innovation-oriented businesses tied
to industrial lands
• Over the long term, San Leandro’s high-concentration and growing sectors are focused on health care, manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing
• “Manufacturing” includes advanced manufacturing processes and new R&D/prototyping work
• Modest but growing opportunities to attract biomedical businesses • San Leandro continues to have strengths in food and beverage manufacturing
9 An upcoming specialized analysis will
examine “creative economy” opportunities
• CVL Economics provides special expertise in assessing and building the creative economy in urban areas.
• CVL will scan potential opportunities to expand creative industries in San Leandro—including potential synergies with San Leandro’s workforce and available properties.
• Examples of creative industries include:
• Visual & performing arts,
• Digital arts,
• Film & music production,
• Industrial arts, craft metal & woodworking, etc.
10 Venture capital investments in San Leandro occur
in businesses connected to industrial lands
11 1
8 5
4 1
3 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
San Leandro: 2019-2023 Peer Cities - 2023
Distribution of Venture Capital Deals, by Industry
(4 years of data for San Leandro)
Software
Other Industries
Life Sciences
Hardware Tech
Food & Beverage
AI
Source: Crunchbase, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023
Note: Other Industries includes manufacturing, logistics, and consumer goods.
San Leandro data comes from five years of observations. Peer cities data are just 2023, and include Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and Newark • Total San Leandro venture
capital raised since 2019:
$69 million
• Most “hardware tech” deals
in San Leandro & Hayward
were for battery technology
• San Leandro far outperformed neighboring
areas in attracting food &
beverage investment
12 San Leandro residents can
readily access jobs
throughout the region
Among working San Leandro residents
in 2020:
• 18% worked in Oakland
• 15% worked in San Francisco
• 11% worked in San Leandro
• 56% worked in other locations
13 17% 11% 11% 11%
23%
17% 17% 16%
28%
23% 25% 24%
22%
28% 28% 28%
7%
15% 14% 15%
2% 3% 3% 4%
1% 3% 3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
San Leandro Alameda County East Bay Bay Area
Educational Attainment, Population Age 25+
Doctorate Degree
Professional School Degree
Master's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Some College
High School Graduate (Includes
Equivalency)
Workforce training and “career ladder” job
opportunities will be critical for San Leandro’s high
share of residents without any college education
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2021 5 Year Estimates; Strategic Economics, 2023. • San Leandro
incomes are also
lower than peers
• Most high-wage
job openings will
require at least a
Bachelor’s degree
Management, Business,
and Financial Operations
Occupations
Professional and Related
Occupations
Healthcare Support
Occupations
Food Preparation and
Serving Related
Occupations
Building and Grounds
Cleaning and Maintenance
Occupations
Personal Care and Service
Occupations
Sales and Related
Occupations
Office and Administrative
Support Occupations
Construction, Extraction,
and Maintenance
Occupations
Production Occupations
Transportation and Material
Moving Occupations
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Projected East Bay Job Openings, 2020
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
-2030
Share of San Leandro Resident Occupations, 2020
Workforce training and connections to resources
are required to enable resident access to high
quality job opportunities
14 Sources: ACS 5-Year, 2021; CA EDD, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023.
Note: Occupation sectors in red represent opportunities for connecting workforce training to local residents Sales tax revenues reflect the importance of both retail and industrial uses for San Leandro’s economic health
and tax base
15 Source: Avenu Insights, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023 Note: Includes the last two quarters of 2022 and the first two quarters of 2023.
Business to Business
22%
Transportation
20%
Construction
20%
Food Products
13%
General Retail & Misc.
25%
Sales Taxes Collected in San Leandro, FY22-23
San Leandro collects more than twice the total
sales tax per capita compared to Alameda County
16 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100
General Retail
Business To Business
Construction
Transportation
Food Products
Miscellaneous
Per Capita Sales Taxes, by Sales Tax Category,
August 2022 – August 2023
California
Alameda County
San Leandro
Source: Avenu Insights, 2024; Strategic Economics, 2024.
Compared to Alameda County, San
Leandro’s sales tax revenue per
capita is especially high in the
categories of:
• Construction
• General Retail
• Business to Business
Business to Business and Construction are
growing in sales, while retail remains strong
17 Source: Avenu Insights, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023 Annual Sales Tax Collections in San Leandro,
2018-2023
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
$9,000,000
Sales Taxes by Category
General Retail & Misc.
Business to Business
Transportation
Construction
Food Products
• Largest growth sub-segments:
• Building materials
• Electronic equipment
• Heavy Industry
• Auto Sales
• Largest declining sub-segments:
• Apparel
• Light Industry
• Auto Parts
Broader retail market transformations favor food,
services, daily needs, and unique or boutique
stores
• San Leandro’s grocery and
restaurant sales are growing
at a faster pace than general
retail
• Reflects broader retail trends
favoring:
• Daily needs
• Services
• Dining and entertainment
• Unique/boutique stores
18 31%
15%
42%
38%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Sales Tax Growth in San Leandro by Category,
FY19-20 to FY22-23
Retail sales in the Alvarado and
Davis-Doolittle areas grew at the
fastest pace since 2019
19 Pre-COVID vs. Post-COVID Retail Sales Growth by Subarea 2019 to 2022 Retail Sales Growth
Source: Avenu Insights, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023 Note: Grey bar indicates COVID-19 Pandemic
Includes all industries except Business to Business; Building Materials - Wholesale; Government/Non-profit; and Vehicle Parts Manufacturing. 0 0.05
0.1 0.15
0.2 0.25
0.3 0.35
0.4 0.45
0.5 $0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
Annual Retail Sales Tax Collections, by
Subarea
Davis-Doolittle
Marina Blvd
Bayfair
Downtown
South
Alvarado
Fairway-Catalina
Remainder of City
The diversity of San Leandro’s residents
supports retail opportunities
20 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2000 2010 2021
Total Population
San Leandro Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 to 2021
Asian
Hispanic or Latino
White
African American or Black
Other
Sources: U.S. Decennial Census, 2021 5 Year Estimates; Strategic Economics, 2023. • San Leandro’s largest Asian
or Latino ethnic groups:
• Mexican
• Chinese
• Filipino
• Businesses serving these
communities are poised for
growth
• E.g., Marina Faire has
added several Asianoriented businesses as
part of their recent
remodel
Strong demand for industrial space is driving
development and reinvestment interest, but much of the
existing building stock is dated
21 - 1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Built
Before
1950
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Total Building Square Feet
Era-Built of Current San Leandro Properties
Inventory Square Feet by Decade Built by Property Type in San Leandro
Industrial Inventory SF Flex Inventory SF Office Inventory SF Retail Inventory SF Sources: CoStar, 2023; Strategic Economics, 2023.
• Modern industrial users
need buildings with 32’- 40’
clear heights (depending on
use) and ample power
capacity (4,000 amps)
• Industrial buildings are
attractive to a variety of
users because of their
flexibility
Future development
opportunity sites are likely to
be larger and underutilized
• Analysis includes identification of
opportunity site characteristics and
locations
• Industrial development activity primarily
occurs at sites:
• With prior uses that were older, vacant, and
underutilized (with relatively low floor area
ratios)
• That are relatively large (1.5+ acres minimum)
• High-profile projects are converting
retail/restaurants to other uses: Bayfair
Center & Shoreline
22 Note: Stars represent recently completed or in-progress development projects.
San Leandro Subareas with Development Activity
New development increases City revenue through
both property purchases and increased property
tax values
23 • Torani Development – 2000
Marina Blvd:
• $197k increase in annual
property tax revenue
• Mazda – 620 Marina Blvd:
• $67k increase in annual
property tax revenue
Top 5 Property Transfer Tax Revenues from
Property Sales Transactions, 2019-2023
Examples of Annual Property
Tax Increases:
Sources: City of San Leandro, 2023; Alameda County, 2024; Strategic Economics, 2023.
Note: City taxes from property transfers total $4.3 million. $1,776,500
$926,750
$610,830
$581,625
$495,000
$- $1,000,000 $2,000,000
500 Davis St.
902 Davis St.
Parcel at Bayfair Center
77 Estabrook St.
906 143rd Ave
Total City Tax from Property Transfer
Commercial
Multifamily
Our research and conclusions have also been
informed by extensive community engagement
• Community Workshop
• Five Focus Groups
• Small Businesses
• Industrial
• Youth & Entrepreneurship
• Large Retail
• Tech/Emerging Industries
• Five Interviews (In Progress)
24 Stakeholders identified several themes for
strengths and weaknesses
• Location
• 880, BART, 580, Port of Oakland, San
Mateo Bridge, airports, education
institutions, manufacturing centers
• Industrial land supply and flexible
building stock
• Business-friendly staff, reputation
• Food manufacturing, advanced mfg.
strengths
• Affordable small business, small
warehouse spaces
• Access to skilled workforce
25 • Homelessness
• Public safety
• Power accessibility for industrial
businesses
• Processing time for permits, new
developments
• Retail may be unattractive to
current residents
• Pedestrian safety
Strengths Weaknesses
Immediate next steps: “SWOT” summary and
strategies development
26 • Targeted industry sector support and
engagement
• Workforce development partnerships
• Subarea-tailored policies, programs, and actions
• Zoning and land use
• Public safety programs
• Infrastructure investments and funding
mechanisms
• Small business grant/loan programs
and technical assistance partnerships
Conclusion Examples Example Strategy Topics • Large/concentrated industries positioned for growth
• Emerging industries
• Workforce development opportunities in
growing occupations
• Community priorities and quality of life
• Real estate development conditions/trends
and opportunity sites
• Infrastructure to support businesses
• Small business needs
• Broader and local retail trends
• City process challenges
Questions
• Do you have any questions about the findings presented today? • Did any of the findings surprise you?
• What should be explored further?
27