ATTACHMENT A-5
FISCAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
AND SUPPLEMENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
100, Bayview Circle Suite 100
Newport Beach, CA 92660
($30,000)
($20,000)
($10,000)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$42,551
($23,766)
$18,785
Total Recurring General Fund
Revenues
Total Recurring General Fund
Expenditures
Net Fiscal Impact
($10,000)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$59,344
($2,264)
$57,080
Total Recurring General Fund
Revenues
Total Recurring General Fund
Expenditures
Net Fiscal Impact
PROJECT SUMMARY
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
FISCAL IMPACT SUMMARY
FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY BUDGET SUMMARY
DEMOGRAPHICS
CASE STUDY REVENUES
CASE STUDY EXPENDITURES
MULTIPLIER REVENUES
MULTIPLIER EXPENDITURES
RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES1 AMOUNT % OF TOTAL AMOUNT % OF TOTAL SECURED PROPERTY TAX $16,294 38.3% $20,788 35.0%
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAX $1,629 3.8% $2,079 3.5%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX $296 0.7% $377 0.6%
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VEHICLE LICENSE FEE $6,941 16.3% $8,926 15.0% DIRECT AND INDIRECT SALES TAX $12,008 28.2% $26,536 44.7% TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX (TOT) $0 0.0% $0 0.0%
FRANCHISE FEES $1,534 3.6% $146 0.2%
LICENSES AND PERMITS $486 1.1% $46 0.1%
FINES AND FORFEITURES $112 0.3% $11 0.0%
CFD REVENUE $3,251 7.6% $434 0.7%
TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES $42,551 100.0% $59,344 100.0% RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES2 AMOUNT % OF TOTAL AMOUNT % OF TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS $3,786 15.9% $361 15.9%
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $1,197 5.0% $114 5.0%
PUBLIC SAFETY $12,773 53.7% $1,217 53.8%
CULTURE AND RECREATION $267 1.1% $25 1.1%
OTHER FINANCING USES $0 0.0% $0 0.0%
GENERAL GOVERNMENT $5,743 24.2% $547 24.2%
TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $23,766 100.0% $2,264 100.0%
NET FISCAL IMPACT
TOTAL ANNUAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND SURPLUS/(DEFICIT)
TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE/EXPENDITURE RATIO
NOTES:
1 Please see Exhibits 5-7 and 9 for the derivation of these calculations. 2 Please see Exhibits 8 and 10 for the derivation of these calculations. *All figures subject to rounding
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
EXHIBIT 1
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FISCAL IMPACT SUMMARY
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
$18,785
1.79 $57,080
26.21
TOTAL BUILDING BUILDING TOTAL BUILDING BUILDING TOTAL
GROSS SPACE SPACE ESTIMATED ESTIMATED SPACE SPACE ESTIMATED ESTIMATED LAND USE TYPE ACRES ACRES1 SF1 VALUE/BSF2 VALUE2 ACRES1 SF1 VALUE/BSF VALUE2 GRAND TOTAL 1.65 0.70 30,697 $10,753,950 0.18 7,800 $13,720,000
NON-RESIDENTIAL
MEDICAL OFFICE 0.41 17,697 $350 $6,193,950 [10]
GENERAL OFFICE 0.14 6,000 $300 $1,800,000
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 0.09 4,000 $450 $1,800,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 0.07 3,000 $320 $960,000
CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU 0.09 3,800 $2,500 $9,500,000 CAR WASH 0.07 3,000 $1,300 $3,900,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 0.02 1,000 $320 $320,000
NON-RESIDENTIAL SUBTOTAL 0.70 30,697 $10,753,950 0.18 7,800 $13,720,000 NOTES
1 Source: Sonda Advisory, "General Plan Amendment, San Marcos, CA. 2 Source: Sonda Advisory, "General Plan Amendment, San Marcos, CA. 3 Source: Sonda Advisory, "General Plan Amendment, San Marcos, CA. *All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 2
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
PROJECT SUMMARY
EXISTING LAND USE
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
NEW PROPOSED LAND USE
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND EMPLOYMENT (2022)
POPULATION1 93,585
EMPLOYMENT2 41,400
TOTAL PERSONS SERVED3 114,285
HOUSEHOLDS 32,000
SFR AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1 3.09
MFR AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE1 2.46
NOTES
1 CA Dept of Finance City/county Populaiton and Housing Estimates 01/1/22 2 Source: Nielsen Demographics 2022
EXHIBIT 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
CITY DEMOGRAPHICS
3 Assumes City population plus 50% of employees.
SF PERSONS SF PERSONS
BUILDING PER PER DIRECT PERSONS BUILDING PER PER DIRECT PERSONS LAND USE TYPE SPACE EMPLOYEE Units HOUSEHOLD1 RESIDENTS EMPLOYEES SERVED SPACE UNITS EMPLOYEE HOUSEHOLD1 RESIDENTS EMPLOYEES SERVED GRAND TOTAL 30,697 82 42 7,800 6 4
NON-RESIDENTIAL
MEDICAL OFFICE 17,697 347 51 26
GENERAL OFFICE 6,000 347 17 9
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 4,000 347 12 6
MIXED USE RETAIL 3,000 1,221 2 1
CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU 3,800 840 5 3
CAR WASH 3,000 0 0 0
MIXED USE RETAIL 1,000 1,221 1 1
NON-RESIDENTIAL SUBTOTAL 30,697 0 82 42 7,800 0 6 4
NOTES
1 United States Census Total Population in Occupied Housing Units and Tenure by Units in Structure 2022. 2 Source: Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2012. *All figures subject to rounding
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
EXHIBIT 4
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
ALL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $16,294 $20,788
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $1,629 $2,079
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $296 $377
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $6,941 $8,926
GRAND TOTAL ALL PROPERTY TAXES $25,160 $32,170
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $0
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $0
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $0 $0
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $0 $0
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES $0 $0
NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $16,294 $20,788
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $1,629 $2,079
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $296 $377
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $6,941 $8,926
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES $25,160 $32,170
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
PROPERTY TAX SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 5
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
EXHIBIT 5
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 $0
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $16,294 $20,788
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $0
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 $0
HOMEOWNER'S EXEMPTION (ANNUALLY) $7,000
PERCENT OF SALE UNITS TAKING HOMEOWNER'S EXEMPTION1 0%
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $0 $0
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $0
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 $0
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $16,294 $20,788
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $1,629 $2,079
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $0
UNSECURED TAXES AS A % OF SECURED2 2.75%
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $1,629 $2,079
UNSECURED TAXES AS A % OF SECURED2 10.00%
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAX CALCULATION
SECURED PROPERTY TAX CALCULATION
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $296 $377
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $0 $0
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $0
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS50.00% RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TURNOVER RATE 10.00%
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $296 $377
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS50.00% NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TURNOVER RATE 5.00%
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $6,941 $8,926
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $0 $0
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $0
ESTIMATED EXISTING ASSESSED VALUE $0 $0
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $6,941 $8,926
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $10,753,950 $13,720,000
ESTIMATED EXISTING ASSESSED VALUE $384,798 $384,798
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VEHICLE LICENSE FEE CALCULATION
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX CALCULATION
EXHIBIT 5 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
PROPERTY TAX ALLOCATION (AS A PORTION OF THE 1% GENERAL PROPERTY TAX LEVY)13115 CITY OF SAN MARCOS3,4 8.832%
FIRE DISTRICT3,4 6.320%
TOTAL 15.152%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX RATE AND ALLOCATION5
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS 50.00%
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF ASSUMPTIONS
TOTAL CITY OF SAN MARCOS GROSS ASSESSED VALUE6 $7,756,621,947 TOTAL CITY PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU VLF REVENUES6 $5,191,930 PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67 NOTES
1 Estimate, subject to change.
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
3 Based on "General Fund" levy for Tax Rate Area (TRA) 13115. Data provided by the County of San Diego Auditor-Controller's Office. 4 Based on the average of the rates for TRA 13115.
5 Source: California Revenue & Taxation Code §11901, et seq.; San Marcos Municipal Code §3.12.020. 6 Source: State Controller's Office Division of Accounting and Reporting, Revenue and Taxation Code Section 97.70 (c)(1)(B)(i) - Vehicle License Fee Adjustment Amounts.
PROPERTY TAX AND PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX RATES AND ASSUMPTIONS 1, 2 EXHIBIT 5 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $12,008 $26,536
RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES
DIRECT SALES TAX NA NA
INDIRECT SALES TAX - TAXABLE RESIDENT PURCHASES
0 $0 $0
0 $0 $0
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES $0 $0
NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES
DIRECT SALES TAX1
MIXED USE RETAIL $9,600
CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU $15,960
CAR WASH $7,200
MIXED USE RETAIL $3,200
INDIRECT SALES TAX - TAXABLE EMPLOYEE PURCHASES $2,408 $176 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES $12,008 $26,536
TAXABLE SALES PER SF1
MIXED USE RETAIL $400
CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU $525
CAR WASH $300
MIXED USE RETAIL $400
DISPLACED TAXABLE SALES2 20% 20%
1 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
EXHIBIT 6
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
DIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
SALES TAX SUMMARY
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
DISPOSABLE INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD 1 $78,797
DISPOSABLE STUDENT HOUSING $0.00
RETAIL TAXABLE EXPENDITURES (AS A % OF DISPOSABLE INCOME)31.254% EMPLOYEES (ANNUAL SPENDING PER EMPLOYEE)3 $5,872
LOCAL RESIDENTIAL SPENDING $12,314
1 Source US Census
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
NON-RESIDENTIAL INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
EXHIBIT 6 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
RESIDENTIAL INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
SALES TAX % TO CITY 1 1.00%
CITY RETAIL TAXABLE PURCHASE CAPTURE RATE 2 50%
FY 2021-22 AD VALOREM PROPERTY TAX RATE (13115) 1.11185% PROPOSED SCHOOL CFD 0.00000%
CITY CFD SPECIAL TAXES $1,090.62
OTHER DIRECT ASSESSMENTS
VECTOR CONTROL $7.92
CWA WATER AVAILABILITY $10.00
MOSQUITO SURVEILLANCE $2.28
MWD WATER STANDBY CHARGE $11.50
SEWER SERVICE CHARGE $467.88
TOTAL ETR 1.425705%
NOTES
1 Estimate, subject to change.
2 Estimate, subject to change.
3 Source: "Office-Worker Retail Spending in a Digital Age," ICSC (2012). Adjusted for inflation using the change in CPI for San Diego. 4 Source: San Marcos Municipal Code §3.20.090.
* All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 6 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
CITY INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
SAMPLE PROPERTY TAX BILL 3,4
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE Residential Office Commercial Residential Office Commercial PLAN PLAN TOTAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $3,251 $434
RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $0 $0
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $0 $0
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $0 $0
NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 0.64 0.07 0.18 $1,690 $226
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) 0.64 0.07 0.18 $1,562 $209
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $3,251 $434
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE Residential Office Commercial Residential Office Commercial PLAN PLAN TOTAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $12,186 $3,096
RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $0 $0.00
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA NA
CFD 2011-012, 4 $0 $0.00
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $0 $0
NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 0.64 0.07 0.18 $779 $198
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 0.64 0.07 0.18 NA NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 27,697 3,000 7,800 $11,407 $2,898
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $12,186 $3,096
CFD SPECIAL TAX RATE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE PER ACRE PER SF PER UNIT
RESIDENTIAL1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $180.04
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $166.43
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $247.60
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 4 $340.16
COMMERCIAL
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $1,260.31
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $1,165.03
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $1,105.32
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 $0.3716
OFFICE 1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $2,520.62
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $2,330.07
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $1,105.32
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 $0.3716
NOTES
1 Source: City of San Marcos.
2 Special assessments collected from the CFD are deposited into Special Funds, not the General Fund. Therefore, these CFD revenues are excluded from this analysis. 3 No special tax rate for Zone F has been established for the project. 5 "Retail" Rate, per building square foot
*All figures subject to rounding
FY 2021-22 SPECIAL TAX RATE
EXHIBIT 7
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED CFD SPECIAL TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
CFD SPECIAL TAX SUMMARY - GENERAL FUND IMPACTS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
CFD SPECIAL TAX SUMMARY - NON-GENERAL FUND IMPACTS (EXCLUDED FROM ANALYSIS) APPROVED ACRES / SQ. FT. PROPOSED ACRES / SQ. FT.
APPROVED ACRES / SQ. FT. PROPOSED ACRES / SQ. FT.
APPROVED PROPOSED
PLAN PLAN
ESTIMATED RECURRING GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD EXPENDITURES1 $5,743 $547 TOTAL RECURRING CITY GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (EXCLUDING GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD)2 $49,104,019 TOTAL RECURRING CITY GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD3 $15,647,420 TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $64,751,439
RECURRING CITY GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD (% OF TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES)3 31.9% MARGINAL INCREASE IN GENERAL GOVERNMENT COSTS 100%
NOTES
1 Based on total recurring project general fund expenditures (excluding general government overhead) from Exhibit 12. 2 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2021-22. *All figures subject to rounding
3 General Government Overhead Expenditures defined as costs for City Council, Administration, Housing and Neighborhood Services, City Attorney, City Clerk, Human Resources/Risk Management, Finance/Information Systems, and Real Property Services.
EXHIBIT 8
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (CASE STUDY)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT ASSUMPTIONS
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES CALCULATION
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
APPROVED PROPOSED
REVENUE CATEGORY PLAN PLAN
FRANCHISE FEES $1,534 $146
LICENSES AND PERMITS $486 $46
FINES AND FORFEITURES $112 $11
TOTAL ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER REVENUES $2,132 $203
REVENUE CATEGORY MULTIPLIER1 BASIS
SALES TAX NA CASE STUDY
PROPERTY TAX NA CASE STUDY
FRANCHISE FEES $36.53 PERSONS SERVED
LICENSES AND PERMITS $11.56 PERSONS SERVED
FINES AND FORFEITURES $2.66 PERSONS SERVED
NOTES
1 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2021-22 *All figures subject to rounding
MULTIPLIER BASED REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
EXHIBIT 9
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND REVENUES
MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND REVENUE SUMMARY
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
APPROVED PROPOSED
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY PLAN PLAN
PUBLIC WORKS $3,786 $361
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $1,197 $114
PUBLIC SAFETY $12,773 $1,217
CULTURE AND RECREATION $267 $25
OTHER FINANCING USES $0 $0
TOTAL MULTIPLIER EXPENDITURES $18,023 $1,717
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY MULTIPLIER1 BASIS
PUBLIC WORKS $90.15 PERSONS SERVED
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $28.51 PERSONS SERVED
PUBLIC SAFETY $304.13 PERSONS SERVED
CULTURE AND RECREATION $6.35 PERSONS SERVED
OTHER FINANCING USES $0.00 PERSONS SERVED
NOTES
1 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2021-22 *All figures subject to rounding
MULTIPLIER BASED EXPENDITURE ASSUMPTIONS
EXHIBIT 10
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES
MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
TOTAL REVENUE PROJECTION
REVENUE CATEGORY REVENUES TYPE METHOD DISCOUNT 1 MULTIPLIER
REVENUES INCLUDED IN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
SALES TAX $16,958,574 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
PROPERTY TAX $24,945,761 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
SPECIAL TAXES/ASSESSMENTS $6,336,923 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX $698,568 RECURRING CASE STUDY 0% NA FRANCHISE FEES $4,175,107 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $36.53 LICENSES AND PERMITS $1,320,598 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $11.56 FINES AND FORFEITURES $304,400 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $2.66 TOTAL INCLUDED GENERAL FUND REVENUES $54,739,931 $50.75 CHARGES FOR SERVICES 3
DEDUCTED FROM GENERAL GOV'T CHARGES $1,324,358 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM PUBLIC WORKS $945,726 NA NA NA NA
DEDUCTED FROM DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $638,567 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM PUBLIC SAFETY: BUILDING REGULATION CHARGES$4,884,697 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM CULTURE AND RECREATION $2,260,952 NA NA NA NA TOTAL CHARGES FOR SERVICES $10,054,301
REVENUES EXCLUDED FROM FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
USE OF MONEY AND PROPERTY 4 $1,482,703 NA NA NA NA
MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES $180,650 NA NA NA NA
OTHER FINANCING SOURCES $5,970,160 NA NA NA NA
INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUES $723,774 NA NA NA NA
DEVELOPER FEES $21,700 NA NA NA NA
TOTAL EXCLUDED GENERAL FUND REVENUES $8,378,987
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUES + CHARGES FOR SERVICES $73,173,219 TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES $54,739,931
NOTES
1 Certain revenues may not be be expected to increase one-to-one with the new development. 2 Source: FY 2021-22 Budget.
3 All charges for services are deducted from expenditure on Exhibit 11 4 Interest income is modeled on a case study basis on Exhibit 8. *All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 11
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FY 2021-22 GENERAL FUND REVENUE SUMMARY
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
CHARGES FOR
TOTAL SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROJECTION
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY EXPENDITURES ADJUSTMENT TYPE METHOD1 DISCOUNT2 MULTIPLIER
EXPENDITURES INCLUDED IN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
CITY COUNCIL $269,813 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
ADMINISTRATION $7,101,389 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT $259,992 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA CITY ATTORNEY $805,000 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
CITY CLERK $535,336 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
HUMAN RESOURCES/ RISK MANAGEMENT $3,902,745 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA FINANCE/ INFORMATION SYSTEMS $3,385,926 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA REAL PROPERTY SERVICES $711,577 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA TOTAL GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES $16,971,778 ($1,324,358) $15,647,420 $0.00
PUBLIC WORKS
OPERATIONS $8,948,363 ($748,373) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $71.75 ENGINEERING $1,604,466 ($134,185) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $12.87 STORMWATER PROGRAM MANAGEMENT $755,306 ($123,771) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $5.53 TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS $11,308,135 ($945,726)
$10,362,409 PERSONS SERVED 0% $90.15
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES
ADMINISTRATION $562,250 ($92,136) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $4.11 PLANNING $1,179,145 ($193,226) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $8.63 BUILDING $1,479,855 ($242,503) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $10.83 ENGINEERING $675,557 ($110,703) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $4.94 TOTAL DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $3,896,807 ($638,567)
$3,258,240 PERSONS SERVED 0% $28.51
PUBLIC SAFETY
FIRE DEPARTMENT $17,812,811 ($2,194,910) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $136.66 LAW ENFORCEMENT $21,828,991 ($2,689,787) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $167.47 TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY $39,641,802 ($4,884,697)
$34,757,105 PERSONS SERVED 0% $304.13
PARKS AND RECREATION
PARKS AND RECREATION $2,987,218 ($2,260,952) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $6.35 TOTAL CULTURE AND RECREATION $2,987,218 ($2,260,952)
$726,266 PERSONS SERVED 0% $6.35
OTHER FINANCING USES
ANNUAL REPLACEMENT/REHAB TRANSFERS $0 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 90% $0.00 TOTAL OTHER FINANCING SOURCES $0 $0
$0 PERSONS SERVED 90% $0.00
TOTAL INCLUDED EXPENDITURES $74,805,740 $64,751,439
EXPENDITURES EXCLUDED FROM FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
TRANSFERS OUT $843,000 NA NA NA NA
0 TOTAL EXCLUDED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $843,000
TOTAL GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $75,648,740 $64,751,439 Ratio
24.17%
NOTES
1 Persons Served method assumes City population plus 50% of employees. 2 Certain expenditures may not be expected to increase one-to-one with the new development. *All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 12
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FY 2021-22 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$20,000,000
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$20,000,000
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS - (APPROVED PLAN)
RECURRING JOBS
RECURRING IMPACTS
ONE-TIME JOBS
ONE TIME IMPACTS
JOB HOUSING BALANCE
SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 1
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY1 EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT.2 SQ. FT.1
MEDICAL OFFICE 2.88 17,697
GENERAL OFFICE 2.88 6,000
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 2.88 4,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 0.82 3,000
30,697
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT
III. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES3 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES4 INDUCED EMPLOYEES4 TOTAL EMPLOYEES MEDICAL OFFICE 51 7 13 71
GENERAL OFFICE 17 4 4 25
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 12 3 3 18
MIXED USE RETAIL 2 0 0 2
TOTAL RECURRING EMPLOYMENT 82 14 20 116
NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
4 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
1 Source: City of San Marcos.
2 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2012. 3 Based on multiplying Category SF by Employees/1,000 SF metric.
EXHIBIT 2
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
RECURRING ECONOMIC IMPACTS - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
% INCOME SPENT TOTAL RESIDENT
I. RESIDENTIAL SPENDING ASSUMPTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN CITY SPENDING / YR. - $0.0 28.07% $0
- $0.0 28.07% $0.0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL OUTPUT ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE OUTPUT / EMPLOYEE1 OUTPUT / YR.1 MEDICAL OFFICE $110,513 $5,636,185
GENERAL OFFICE $127,446 $2,166,576
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS $127,446 $1,529,348
MIXED USE RETAIL $67,385 $134,771
RECURRING OUTPUT
III.CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 1 INDUCED OUTPUT 1 TOTAL OUTPUT MEDICAL OFFICE $5,636,185 $1,008,798 $1,791,854 $8,436,837 GENERAL OFFICE $2,166,576 $527,297 $554,734 $3,248,607
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS $1,529,348 $372,209 $391,577 $2,293,134 MIXED USE RETAIL $134,771 $25,076 $36,302 $196,150
TOTAL RECURRING OUTPUT $9,466,880 $1,933,381 $2,774,468 $14,174,729 NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
EXHIBIT 3
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS SQ. FT.
MEDICAL OFFICE 17,697
GENERAL OFFICE 6,000
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 4,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 3,000
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT
IV. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDUCED EMPLOYEES 1 TOTAL EMPLOYEES MEDICAL OFFICE 33 6 8 46
GENERAL OFFICE 10 2 2 14
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS 10 2 2 14
MIXED USE RETAIL 6 1 3 10
TOTAL ONE-TIME EMPLOYEES 59 11 15 84
NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures).
EXHIBIT 4
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ONE-TIME IMPACTS - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
ESTIMATED
I. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS UNITS COST PER SQ. FT. COST PER UNIT - 0 $0 $0
- 0 $0 $0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS IMPROVEMENT VALUE1 CONSTRUCTION COST PER SQ. FT.
MEDICAL OFFICE $5,264,858 $298
GENERAL OFFICE $1,530,000 $255
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS $1,530,000 $383
MIXED USE RETAIL $816,000 $272
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME OUTPUT
IV. CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 2 INDUCED OUTPUT 2 TOTAL OUTPUT MEDICAL OFFICE $5,264,858 $984,272 $1,100,557 $7,349,687 GENERAL OFFICE $1,530,000 $286,929 $335,715 $2,152,645
MIXED USE OFFICE CONDOS $1,530,000 $286,929 $335,715 $2,152,645 MIXED USE RETAIL $816,000 $140,862 $181,727 $1,138,589
TOTAL ONE-TIME OUTPUT $9,140,858 $1,698,992 $1,953,715 $12,793,565 NOTES:
1 Assumes that improvement value is approximately 85% of total valuation. 2 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures). * All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 5
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. EXISTING DEMOGRAPHICS
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
HOUSING UNITS 1 32,000
EMPLOYEES 2 41,400
II. JOB IMPACTS 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
DIRECT IMPACT 82
ADDITIONAL INDIRECT 14
ADDITIONAL INDUCED 20
TOTAL 116
III. CUMULATIVE PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
EXISTING HOUSING UNITS PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 32,000 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.00%
EXISTING EMPLOYEES PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 41,516 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.28%
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
IV. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
EXISTING 1.29
EXISTING WITH PROJECT 1.30
PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.28%
NOTES:
1 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State (2022). * All figures subject to rounding
2 Source: California Employment Development Department ("EDD") - Labor Market Information Division. 3 Please see Exhibit B-1: Recurring Jobs.
EXHIBIT 6
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
SUMMARY - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT. SQ. FT.
MEDICAL OFFICE 2.88 17,697
GENERAL OFFICE 2.88 6,000
ECONOMIC IMPACTS CONCLUSIONS
RECURRING IMPACTS
III. JOB CREATION DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 82 34 116
IV. TOTAL OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $9,466,880 $4,707,849 $14,174,729
ONE-TIME IMPACTS
V. CONSTRUCTION JOBS DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 59 26 84
VI. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $9,140,858 $3,652,708 $12,793,565
OTHER IMPACTS
BALANCE BALANCE % INCREASE/
VII. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE EXISTING WITH PROJECT (DECREASE) CITYWIDE 1.29375 1.29738 0.28%
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
STARBUCKS DRIVE-THRU RESTAURANT
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS - (PROPOSED PLAN)
RECURRING JOBS
RECURRING IMPACTS
ONE-TIME JOBS
ONE TIME IMPACTS
JOB HOUSING BALANCE
SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 1
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY1 EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT.2 SQ. FT.1
GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU 1.19 3,800
MIXED USE RETAIL 0.82 1,000
4,800
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT
III. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES3 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES4 INDUCED EMPLOYEES4 TOTAL EMPLOYEES GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU 5 0 1 6
MIXED USE RETAIL 1 0 0 1
TOTAL RECURRING EMPLOYMENT 6 0 1 7
NOTES:
2 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2012. 3 Based on multiplying Category SF by Employees/1,000 SF metric. 1 Source: City of San Marcos.
EXHIBIT 2
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
RECURRING ECONOMIC IMPACTS - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
% INCOME SPENT TOTAL RESIDENT
I. RESIDENTIAL SPENDING ASSUMPTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN CITY SPENDING / YR. - $0 28.07% $0
- $0 28.07% $0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL OUTPUT ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE OUTPUT / EMPLOYEE1 OUTPUT / YR.1 CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU $75,033 $375,164
MIXED USE RETAIL $58,950 $58,950
RECURRING OUTPUT
III.CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 1 INDUCED OUTPUT 1 TOTAL OUTPUT CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU $375,164 $65,441 $116,887 $557,492 MIXED USE RETAIL $58,950 $10,993 $14,878 $84,821
EXHIBIT 3
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS SQ. FT.
GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU 3,800
CAR WASH 3,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 1,000
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT
IV. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDUCED EMPLOYEES 1 TOTAL EMPLOYEES GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU 53 2 0 55
CAR WASH 22 1 1 23
MIXED USE RETAIL 2 0 0 2
TOTAL ONE-TIME EMPLOYEES 77 2 1 80
EXHIBIT 4
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
ONE-TIME IMPACTS - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
ESTIMATED
I. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS UNITS COST PER SQ. FT. COST PER UNIT MIXED USE RESIDENTIAL 0 $0 $0
STUDENT HOUSING 0 $0 $0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS IMPROVEMENT VALUE1 CONSTRUCTION COST PER SQ. FT.
GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU $8,075,000 $2,125
CAR WASH $3,315,000 $1,105
MIXED USE RETAIL $272,000 $272
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME OUTPUT
IV. CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 2 INDUCED OUTPUT 2 TOTAL OUTPUT GAS STATION AND DRIVE THRU $8,075,000 $1,514,348 $1,771,831 $11,361,180 CAR WASH $3,315,000 $621,680 $727,383 $4,664,063
MIXED USE RETAIL $272,000 $46,954 $60,576 $379,530
TOTAL ONE-TIME OUTPUT $11,662,000 $2,182,982 $2,559,791 $16,404,773
EXHIBIT 5
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. EXISTING DEMOGRAPHICS
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
HOUSING UNITS 1 32,000
EMPLOYEES 2 41,400
II. JOB IMPACTS 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
DIRECT IMPACT 6
ADDITIONAL INDIRECT 0
ADDITIONAL INDUCED 1
TOTAL 7
III. CUMULATIVE PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
EXISTING HOUSING UNITS PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 32,000 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.00%
EXISTING EMPLOYEES PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 41,407 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.02%
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
IV. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
EXISTING 1.29
EXISTING WITH PROJECT 1.29
PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.02%
NOTES:
1 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State (2022). * All figures subject to rounding
2 Source: California Employment Development Department ("EDD") - Labor Market Information Division. 3 Please see Exhibit B-1: Recurring Jobs.
EXHIBIT 6
LOS POSAS - GENERAL PLAN AMENDMENT
SUMMARY - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
- 0
0 II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT. SQ. FT.
CONVENIENCE STORE AND DRIVE THRU 1.19 3,800
CAR WASH 0.82 3,000
MIXED USE RETAIL 0.00 1,000
ECONOMIC IMPACTS CONCLUSIONS
RECURRING IMPACTS
III. JOB CREATION DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 6 1 7
IV. TOTAL OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $434,114 $208,199 $642,313
ONE-TIME IMPACTS
V. CONSTRUCTION JOBS DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 77 3 80
VI. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $11,662,000 $4,742,773 $16,404,773
OTHER IMPACTS
BALANCE BALANCE % INCREASE/
VII. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE EXISTING WITH PROJECT (DECREASE) CITYWIDE 1.29 1.29 0.02%