Appendix K-2
Local Transportation Analysis Report
3900 5th Avenue, Suite 310 San Diego, CA 92103 619-795-6086 www.CRAmobility.com
TO: Jonathan Quezada, MPA, EIT; City of San Marcos
FROM: Jonathan Sanchez, PE, TE, PTOE; CR Associates
Joseph Perez, EIT; CR Associates
DATE: February 24, 2023
RE: Gran Vista Multi-Family – Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Analysis Technical Memorandum This technical memorandum documents the results of the SB-743 compliant transportation impact analysis conducted for the proposed Gran Vista Multi-Family project (the “Proposed Project”). The analysis is based on the recently revised (January 2019) State California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines and the City of San Marcos Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) Guidelines dated November 16, 2020.
Project Description
The Proposed Project seeks to construct 120 multi-family dwelling units on a vacant property approximately 250 feet northwest of the West Mission Road and North Las Posas Road intersection in the City of San Marcos. The property is bordered by North Las Posas Road on the northeast side, West Mission Road on the southwest side, single family dwelling units on the northwest side, and a CVS pharmacy to the south. Per the City’s General Plan, the site is designated as a Commercial (C) land use.
The Proposed Project will share two existing driveways with the adjacent CVS pharmacy with one located off North Las Posas Road and the other off West Mission Road. The access off North Las Posas Road is via a signalized intersection at North Las Posas Road / Palm Road (Driveway 1), and the access off West Mission Road is via a side-street (the CVS driveway) stop controlled intersection that does not allow left-turn out movement (Driveway 2). The assumed opening year of the Proposed Project is 2024.
Figure 1 displays the Proposed Project regional location, while Figure 2 displays the project site plan.
·|}þ78
City of Vista
City of
Carlsbad
City of
Encinitas
City of
Escondido
City of
Escondido
County of
San Diego
County of
San Diego
County of
San Diego
County of
San Diego
County of
San Diego
City of
San Diego
City of
San Marcos
N
Fi gure 1
Project Regional Location
Gran Vista Multi-Family
V
MT Analysis
0 21 Miles
Project Site
^
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT
Analysis
F igure 2
Project Site Plan
W. Mission Rd
Las Posas Road Frontage/Paseos
•
• Paseo access and landscaped pedestrian pathways
•
Primary Community Entry
•
• Provides front doors facing entry for a
welcoming street scene
• Enhanced paving and landscaping to be
designed by landscape architect
• Centrally located near the primary entry to provide
a focal point for the community
•
• Located adjacent to a tot lot to promote family and
social gathering
• Underground vaults provide storm water treatment
Children’s Play Area
•
•
area to promote family and social gathering
(To Remain -
Not a Part)
Project Summary
Gross Area: 7.6 Acres
Total Units: 120 Homes
30 - Plan 2532: 1,213 Sq.Ft., 2 Bed, side-by-side garage 45 - Plan 1633: 1,505 Sq.Ft., 3 Bed, tandem garage
45 - Plan 1636: 1,802 Sq.Ft., 3 Bed, side-by-side garage Total Open Space:
17,550 Sq.Ft. of Private Open Space
44,548 Sq.Ft. of Open space with grades of 10% or more
92,645 Sq.Ft. of Common Recretaion Area
154,743 Sq.Ft. Total
Parking
240 Garage Spaces (Includes 45 Tandem)
20 Guest Spaces (Includes 2 ADA Spaces and 2 EV Spaces)
Notes:
1. APNs 219-121-15 & 16
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. Total building square footage: 185,205 SF
7. Required common open space: 24,431 SF
8. Required private open space: 6,000 SF
Secondary Community Entry
•
right-out only turning movements
• Enhanced by adjacent open space areas, special
paving and landscaping
Community Garden
• Raised planter beds with decompsed granite
•
• Tot lots with play equipment (three areas shown in red) provided throughout site area are located adjacent to barbecues and other • Outdoor excercise equipment (three areas shown in blue) provides an Dog Park
•
excercise and enjoy pets
• Fenced with tublar steel fencing to
provide an “open” appearance
•
and easy maitenance
•
gated entry, and other
Three-Story Townhomes
•
• Located near SPRINTER light rail line (nearest stop is 0.4 miles) to support • Withing walking dictance of retail, parks, schools and other everyday services •
Turf Play Area
•
• Can be used for badminton, pick-up soccer, Frisbee
and other informal games
• Underground vaults provide storm water treatment
Neighborhood Edge
• Buildings oriented to minimize windows
•
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 4
Project Trip Generation
Per the City’s TIAG, trip generation rates were derived from the SANDAG’s (not so) Brief Guide to Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Region (April 2002).Table 1 displays the projected daily, as well as AM and PM peak hour, project trip generation.
Table 1 - Project Trip Generation
Land Use Units Trip
Rate ADT AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
% Trips Split In Out % Trips Split In Out
Multi-Family
(6-20
DU/acre)
120
DU 8/DU 960 8 77 2:8 15 62 10 96 7:3 67 29
Source: SANDAG (not so) Brief Guide of Vehicular Traffic Generation Rates for the San Diego Region, April 2002) Notes:
ADT = Average Daily Traffic
DU = Dwelling Unit
As shown in Table 1, the Proposed Project is anticipated to generate 960 daily trips, including 77 trips (15-in/62-out) during the AM peak hour and 96 (67-in/29-out) trips during the PM peak hour.
Analysis Methodology
On September 27, 2013, Governor Edmund G. Brown, Jr. signed SB-743 into law, starting a process that fundamentally changes the way transportation impact analysis is conducted under CEQA.
Related revisions to the State’s CEQA Guidelines include elimination of auto delay, level of service (LOS), and similar measurements of vehicular roadway capacity and traffic congestion as the basis for determining significant impacts, and replacement with Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) as the preferred CEQA transportation metric.
In December 2018, the California Resources Agency certified and adopted revised CEQA Guidelines, including the new section 15064.3. Under Section 15064.3, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which includes the amount and distance of automobile traffic attributable to a project, is identified as the “most appropriate measure of transportation impacts.” As of July 1, 2020, all CEQA lead agencies must analyze a project’s transportation impacts using VMT. On November 16, 2020, the City of San Marcos adopted its Transportation Impact Analysis Guidelines.
Screening Thresholds
Many agencies use these screening thresholds to quickly identify when a project should be expected to cause a less-than-significant impact without conducting a detailed study. The City of San Marcos TIA Guidelines suggest that a detailed transportation VMT analysis applies to all land development projects, except those that meet at least one of the screening criteria. Relevant screening criteria for the Proposed Project is described below:
Presumption of Less Than Significant Impact for Affordable Residential Development – Residential projects with 100 percent deed restricted affordable housing can be presumed to have a less-than-significant transportation impact and would not require a detailed VMT analysis. If a project contains less than 100 percent affordable housing, the portion that is Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 5
affordable should be screened out of requiring a detailed VMT analysis. Projects can only be s
creened out if they are located in parts of the city that have been identified by SANDAG and the City as Smart Growth Opportunity Areas. For mixed-use projects, this screening criteria should be applied to the residential component separately to determine if that portion of the project screens out of a detailed VMT analysis.
Local-Serving Retail - Retail projects that have 50,000 square feet gross floor area or less can be presumed to have a less than-significant transportation impact and would not require a detailed VMT analysis. For a mixed-use project, this screening criteria should be applied to the retail/commercial component separately to determine if that portion of the project screens out of a detailed VMT analysis.
Map-Based Screening for Residential and Office Projects – Residential and employment projects that are proposed in areas that generate VMT below adopted City thresholds can be presumed to have a less-than-significant transportation impact and would not require a detailed VMT analysis. This determination must be made using SANDAG’s online residential and employment VMT maps for existing year or model baseline year VMT (whichever is available at the time analysis is being conducted), which show census tracts in the city where the VMT is below the regional average. The following types of projects could be screened out using this approach:
o Residential projects proposed in census tracts with residential VMT per capita below the City’s threshold of exceeding 85 percent of the SANDAG regional average.
In order to utilize this screening approach, the project must incorporate similar land use characteristics to other projects in the census tract. For mixed-use projects, this screening criteria should be applied to the residential and employment components separately to determine if any portions of the project screen out of a detailed VMT analysis.
Based upon the screening criteria presented above, the Proposed Project would not be screened out from completing a detailed VMT analysis for the following reasons:
Screening Threshold for Small Projects – The Proposed Project generates more than 110 daily trips.
Map-Based Screening for Residential and Office Projects – The Proposed Project is located in an area that generates VMT per capita above the adopted City threshold as displayed in Figure 3.
Presumption of Less Than Significant Impact for Affordable Residential Development - The Proposed Project consists of 120 multi-family dwelling units which does not provide for any affordable housing.
Presumption of Less Than Significant Impact Near Transit Stations - Although the Proposed Project is within a high-quality transit area, it is inconsistent with the City’s current general plan.
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 6
Figure 3 - Project Location within SANDAG VMT Map
VMT Analysis
Analysis Metrics
Consistent with the City’s TIAG, the residential portion of the Proposed Project shall be analyzed by the following VMT metric:
VMT/Capita which includes, for all San Diego County residents, all vehicle-based resident travel grouped and summed to the home location of the individual. It includes all resident vehicle travel: home-based and non-home-based. The VMT for each individual is then summed for all individuals residing in a particular census tract and divided by the population of that census tract to arrive at Resident VMT/Capita. A significant impact will occur if the project generates VMT per resident greater than 85 percent of the regional average.
The regional average VMT was determined using the SANDAG Series 14 ABM2+/2021 RP Year 2016 Base model. Table 2 summarizes the VMT analysis results.
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 7
Table 2 - VMT Impact Analysis - Residential
Metric VMT per Resident
Regional Average 18.901
Significant Impact Threshold (85%) 16.072
Proposed Project 17.101
Significant Impact Yes
Source: CR Associates (2022)
Notes:
1 Source = SANDAG Series 14 ABM2+/2021 RP Year 2016 Base Model 2 Regional Average x 85%
As shown in Table 2, the Proposed Project is anticipated to generate a VMT per resident of 17.10 miles, which exceeds the significance threshold of 16.07 miles. Therefore, the Proposed Project would have a significant VMT impact and mitigation measures are required to reduce the VMT per resident.
VMT Mitigation
The proposed project’s VMT per Capita is not anticipated to fall under the significance threshold as the project site is located in a suburban area that includes single-family homes with higher automobile ownership as compared to the region. While the proposed project is located on an infill site and is consistent with Climate Action Plan and SANDAG’s Regional Plan, impacts related to VMT per Capita would not be reduced to 85% of the regional average. It is important to note that this impact is primarily a result of the geographic location of the proposed project in a suburban neighborhood, as trip characteristics of the surrounding residential land uses are used as a surrogate to estimate proposed project trip characteristics, regardless of the inherent differences between the land uses.
Nonetheless, the Proposed Project would have a significant VMT impact and mitigation measures are required to reduce the VMT per resident. The Proposed Project’s total VMT per Capita is 17.1 miles.
To mitigate the Proposed Project’s VMT to less than significant levels, mitigation measures would need to reduce the total VMT per Capita by 6.02% from 17.1 miles to 16.07 miles.
To reduce the average VMT per Capita, it is recommended that the Proposed Project implement a Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Program. A TDM program would facilitate increased opportunities for walking and bicycling, as well as provide the resources, means and incentives for ridesharing and carpooling. The SANDAG Mobility Management Guidebook/VMT Reduction Tool was taken into consideration initially, however, this tool does not provide strategies that are applicable to project. Therefore, the methods and strategies contained in the California Air Pollution Control Officers Association (CAPCOA) Handbook for Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions, Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities, and Advancing Health and Equity (CAPCOA Report).
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 8
Based on discussions with the project applicant, the Proposed project will implement the following mitigation measure:
1. Provide subsidized transit passes (10%) for 100% of all residents (CAPCOA T-9: Implement Subsidized or Discounted Transit Program = 0.10% VMT reduction).
See Attachment A for details on the VMT reduction calculations and excerpts from the CAPCOA Report.
Additionally, the CAPCOA Report provides for mitigation measures that are considered non- quantifiable for the Proposed Project due to the implementation requirements or measure description in relation to Proposed Project’s land use (i.e., a residential project rather than an employment project). The Proposed Project will implement the following non-quantifiable VMT reduction strategies to encourage alternative modes of transportation:
2. Creation and distribution of a “new resident” information packet addressing alternative modes of transportation (CAPCOA T-7: Implement Commute Trip Reduction Marketing).
3. Provide on-site bike parking (CAPCOA T-10: Provide End-of-Trip Bicycle Facilities).
See Attachment A for full list of VMT mitigation measures taken into consideration and determination of feasibility for the Proposed Project.
The CAPCOA Report notes that when determining the overall VMT reduction associated with a project, the VMT reduction for each individual strategy should be dampened, that is adjusted to reflect the fact that some of the strategies may be redundant or applicable to the same populations.
The CAPCOA report provides the following dampening formula:
Overall % VMT Reduction = 1 – (1 - First Strategy) * (1 - Second Strategy) * (1 – Third Strategy) … The Proposed Project would have the following overall VMT reduction:
Overall VMT Reduction = 1 - (1 - 0.001)
Overall VMT Reduction = 0.10%
Table 3 summarizes the Proposed Project’s trip reductions and mitigation results.
Table 3 - Proposed Project VMT Mitigation
VMT /
Resident1
Threshold VMT /
Resident2
Mitigation Measures
(% Reduction)
VMT / Resident
Reduction
Net VMT /
Resident3 M?
17.1 16.07 CAPCOA T-9 (.10%) -0.10% 17.08 No
Source: CR Associates (2022)
Notes:
1 SANDAG Series 14 ABM2+/2021 RP Year 2016 Base Model (Figure 3) 2 Regional Average x 85%
3 [Net VMT per Resident] = [VMT per Resident] X [VMT per Resident Reduction] M? = Mitigated?
Gran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis Page 9
Based on the VMT reduction results, implementation of the TDM Program is anticipated to reduce the VMT per capita generated by 0.10 percent. Thus, with implementation of the TDM Program, the Proposed Project is anticipated to generate 17.08 VMT per Capita (17.1 VMT per Capita * (1 -
0.001)). The resulting 17.08 miles per resident exceeds the 16.07 miles threshold. Therefore, since the mitigation measures would not reduce the VMT per resident to less than significant levels, the impact is only partially mitigated, and the Proposed Project is considered to have a significant and partially mitigated impact.
G ran Vista Multi-Family
VMT Analysis
Attachment A - VMT Mitigation Reduction
Calculations and Full List of VMT Mitigation
Measures Taken into Consideration
VMT
Reduction =
Subsidy Amount /
Average Transit Fare
Elasticity (Transit
boardings with respect
to transit fare)
%
residents
eligible
% VMT
generated from
residents
Transit Mode
Share (Table T-
9.1)
% of Trips
otherwise made
by vehicle
Conversion
Factor
-0.102% = 10% -0.43 100% 100% 4.74% 50% 1
VMT Reduction Mitigation Measures
Mitigation Measure (from CAPCOA Report) Feasibility
TDM-T-7-Implement Commute Trip Reduction Marketing
Yes - However, not quantifiable for the Proposed Project due to the implementation requirements or measure description in relation to Proposed Project’s land use (i.e., a residential project rather than an employment project).
TDM-T-8-Provide Ridesharing Program No - Not financially feasible for project to host and implement a ridesharing program.
TDM-T-9-Implement Subsidized or Discounted Transit Program Yes - Providing 10% subsidized transit passes.
TDM-T-10-Provide End-of-Trip Bicycle Facilities
Yes - However, not quantifiable for the Proposed Project due to the implementation requirements or measure description in relation to Proposed Project’s land use (i.e., a residential project rather than an employment project).
TDM-T-14-Provide Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure No - Although project is providing EV ready infrastructure as well as several EV charging ready visitor guest parking, these only meet the City's minimum requirements. Additionally, EV charging infrastructure only reduces gas emissions and does not reduce VMT.
TDM-T-15-Limit Residential Parking Supply No - Not feasible to reduce parking for this residential project.
TDM-T-18-Provide Pedestrian Network Improvement
No - Although the project is providing pedestrian improvements within project site and project frontage, it is not financially feasible to provide pedestrian network improvements beyond the project site.
TDM-T-21-A-Implement Conventional Carshare Program No - Not financially feasible for project to implement a carshare program.
TDM-T-21-B-Implement Electric Carshare Program No - Not financially feasible for project to implement an electric carshare program.
TDM-T-22-A-Implement Pedal (Non-Electric) Bikeshare Program No - Not financially feasible for project to implement a pedal bikeshare program.
TDM-T-22-B-Implement Electric Bikeshare Program No - Not financially feasible for project to implement an electric bikeshare program.
TDM-T-22-C-Implement Scootershare Program No - Not financially feasible for project to implement a scootershare program.