ATTACHMENT B8
FISCAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
100, Bayview Circle Suite 100
Newport Beach, CA 92660
($100,000)
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$456,934
($77,283)
$379,651
Total Recurring General Fund
Revenues
Total Recurring General Fund
Expenditures
Net Fiscal Impact
($200,000)
($100,000)
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$465,598
($187,061)
$278,537
Total Recurring General Fund
Revenues
Total Recurring General Fund
Expenditures
Net Fiscal Impact
PROJECT SUMMARY
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
FISCAL IMPACT SUMMARY
FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
CITY BUDGET SUMMARY
DEMOGRAPHICS
CASE STUDY REVENUES
CASE STUDY EXPENDITURES
MULTIPLIER REVENUES
MULTIPLIER EXPENDITURES
RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES1 AMOUNT % OF TOTAL AMOUNT % OF TOTAL SECURED PROPERTY TAX $85,077 18.6% $189,068 40.6%
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAX $8,508 1.9% $6,934 1.5%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX $1,544 0.3% $4,800 1.0%
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VEHICLE LICENSE FEE $31,537 6.9% $59,251 12.7% DIRECT AND INDIRECT SALES TAX $312,899 68.5% $150,198 32.3% FRANCHISE FEES $4,115 0.9% $9,995 2.1%
LICENSES AND PERMITS $1,333 0.3% $3,275 0.7%
FINES AND FORFEITURES $284 0.1% $741 0.2%
CFD REVENUE $11,637 2.5% $41,337 8.9%
TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES $456,934 100.0% $465,598 100.0% RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES2 AMOUNT % OF TOTAL AMOUNT % OF TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS $10,956 14.176% $26,520 14.177%
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $6,973 9.023% $16,900 9.034%
PUBLIC SAFETY $37,272 48.228% $90,091 48.161%
PARKS AND RECREATION $1,810 2.342% $4,428 2.367%
OTHER FINANCING USES $122 0.158% $350 0.187%
GENERAL GOVERNMENT $20,150 26.073% $48,772 26.073%
TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $77,283 100.0% $187,061 100.0%
NET FISCAL IMPACT
TOTAL ANNUAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND SURPLUS/(DEFICIT)
TOTAL ANNUAL REVENUE/EXPENDITURE RATIO
NOTES:
1 Please see Exhibits 5-7 and 9 for the derivation of these calculations. 2 Please see Exhibits 8 and 10 for the derivation of these calculations. *All figures subject to rounding
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
EXHIBIT 1
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FISCAL IMPACT SUMMARY
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
$379,651
5.91 $278,537
2.49
TOTAL BUILDING BUILDING TOTAL BUILDING BUILDING TOTAL BUILDING BUILDING ESTIMATED TOTAL
GROSS SPACE SPACE ESTIMATED ESTIMATED SPACE SPACE ESTIMATED ESTIMATED SPACE SPACE ESTIMATED AVERAGE ESTIMATED LAND USE TYPE ACRES ACRES1 SF1 VALUE/BSF2 VALUE2 ACRES1 SF1 VALUE/BSF2 VALUE2 ACRES1 UNITS1 SF1 VALUE/BSF VALUATION2,3 VALUE2 GRAND TOTAL 11.1 3.88 169,000 $332 $56,150,000 1.30 56,531 $450 $25,433,353 3.51 109 152,991 $487 $683,992 $74,558,430 NON-RESIDENTIAL 3.88 169,000 $56,150,000
COMMERCIAL RETAIL 2.96 129,000 $350 $45,150,000
TWO STORY OFFICE 0.92 40,000 $275 $11,000,000
694 PARKING SPACES / 5 LOADING SPACES
NON-RESIDENTIAL 1.30 56,531 $25,433,353
RESTAURANT 0.60 25,965 $475 $12,333,375
IN-LINE RETAIL 0.53 22,958 $441 $10,124,478
CREATIVE OFFICE 0.16 6,931 $400 $2,772,400
OFFICE 0.02 677 $300 $203,100
RESIDENTIAL 3.51 109 152,991 $74,558,430
TOWNHOME 3.35 102 145,827 $482 $689,175 $70,295,850
LIVE WORK UNITS 0.16 7 7,164 $595 $608,471 $4,262,580
NOTES
1 Source: City of San Marcos.
2 Source: Zonda Research, "Pricing and Absorption Study: Hall Land Company Study, San Marcos, CA. 3 "Estimated average sale price" refers to the Estimated closing price per Zonda assumptions. 4 Source: Zonda Research, "Pacific Specific Plan SP22-0001 Update January 2023". * Totals may not sum due to rounding
EXHIBIT 2
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
PROJECT SUMMARY
APPROVED PLAN
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
PROPOSED PLAN
POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND EMPLOYMENT (2022)
POPULATION1 93,585
EMPLOYMENT2 42,600
TOTAL PERSONS SERVED3 114,885
HOUSEHOLDS 1 19,659
MFR AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE1 2.46
NOTES
1 California Department of Finance, Housing and Population Information, January 1, 2022. 2 Source: Calif. Employment Development Dept. January 2022 EXHIBIT 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
CITY DEMOGRAPHICS
3 Assumes City population plus 50% of employees.
SF SF PERSONS
PER DIRECT PERSONS PER DIRECT PERSONS PER DIRECT PERSONS LAND USE TYPE BSF EMPLOYEE2 EMPLOYEES SERVED BSF EMPLOYEE2 EMPLOYEES SERVED BSF UNITS HOUSEHOLD1 RESIDENTS EMPLOYEES SERVED GRAND TOTAL 169,000 221 111 56,531 109 55 152,991 109 2.46 268 0 268 NON-RESIDENTIAL 169,000 221 111
COMMERCIAL RETAIL 129,000 1,221 106 53
TWO STORY OFFICE 40,000 347 115 58
694 PARKING SPACES / 5 LOADING SPACES
NON-RESIDENTIAL 56,531 109 55
RESTAURANT 25,965 384 68 34
IN-LINE RETAIL 22,958 1,221 19 10
CREATIVE OFFICE 6,931 347 20 10
OFFICE 677 347 2 1
RESIDENTIAL 152,991 109 268 0 268
TOWNHOME 145,827 102 2.46 251 0 251
LIVE WORK UNITS 7,164 7 2.46 17 0 17
NOTES
1 Source: Zonda Research.
2 Source: Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2018. 3 Source: Zonda Research,
*All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 4
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
APPROVED PLAN PROPOSED PLAN
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
ALL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $85,077 $189,068
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $8,508 $6,934
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $1,544 $4,800
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $31,537 $59,251
GRAND TOTAL ALL PROPERTY TAXES $126,666 $260,053
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $150,532
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $3,080
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $0 $4,101
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $0 $48,274
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES $0 $205,987
NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES
SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $85,077 $38,536
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $8,508 $3,854
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $1,544 $699
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $31,537 $10,977
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES $126,666 $54,066
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $56,150,000 $99,991,783
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 ($642,600)
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $56,150,000 $99,349,183
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $85,077 $150,532
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $74,558,430
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 ($642,600)
HOMEOWNER'S EXEMPTION (ANNUALLY) 1 $7,000
PERCENT OF SALE UNITS TAKING HOMEOWNER'S EXEMPTION1 90% ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $0 $73,915,830
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $111,996
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $56,150,000 $25,433,353
ESTIMATED EXEMPTIONS $0 $0
ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE $56,150,000 $25,433,353
ESTIMATED SECURED PROPERTY TAXES $85,077 $38,536
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $8,508 $6,934
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $0 $3,080
UNSECURED TAXES AS A % OF SECURED 2.75%
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED UNSECURED PROPERTY TAXES $8,508 $3,854
UNSECURED TAXES AS A % OF SECURED 10.00%
[1] Per the City of San Marcos Housing Needs Assessment 2019 only 9% of City's of housing stock is made up of condominiums/townhouses and mobile homes DTA estimates that 90% of these units will be owner occupied
UNSECURED PROPERTY TAX CALCULATION
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
PROPERTY TAX SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 5
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
SECURED PROPERTY TAX CALCULATION
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $1,544 $4,800
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $0 $4,101
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $74,558,430
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS50.00% RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TURNOVER RATE 10.00%
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TRANSFER TAXES $1,544 $699
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $56,150,000 $25,433,353
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS50.00% NON-RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TURNOVER RATE 5.00%
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $31,537 $59,251
RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $0 $48,274
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $0 $74,558,430
ESTIMATED EXISTING ASSESSED VALUE $0 $2,437,480
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67
NON-RESIDENTIAL
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF $31,537 $10,977
ESTIMATED BUILDOUT VALUE $56,150,000 $25,433,353
ESTIMATED EXISTING ASSESSED VALUE $9,034,081 $6,596,601 PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VEHICLE LICENSE FEE CALCULATION
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX CALCULATION
EXHIBIT 5 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
PROPERTY TAX ALLOCATION (AS A PORTION OF THE 1% GENERAL PROPERTY TAX LEVY) CITY OF SAN MARCOS3,4 8.832%
FIRE DISTRICT3,4 6.320%
TOTAL 15.151824%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX RATE AND ALLOCATION5
TRANSFER TAX AS A % OF ASSESSED VALUE 0.11%
PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX PASSED THROUGH TO CITY OF SAN MARCOS 50.00%
PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF ASSUMPTIONS
TOTAL CITY OF SAN MARCOS GROSS ASSESSED VALUE6 $7,756,621,947 TOTAL CITY PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU VLF REVENUES6 $5,191,930 PROPERTY TAX IN-LIEU OF VLF INCREASE PER $1,000 OF AV $0.67 NOTES
1 Estimate, subject to change.
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
3 Based on "General Fund" levy for Tax Rate Area (TRA) 131115. Data provided by the County of San Diego Auditor-Controller's Office. 4 Based on the average of the rates for TRA 13115.
5 Source: California Revenue & Taxation Code §11901, et seq.; San Marcos Municipal Code §3.12.020. *All figures subject to rounding
PROPERTY TAX AND PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX RATES AND ASSUMPTIONS EXHIBIT 5 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
ESTIMATED PROPERTY TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
6 Source: State Controller's Office Division of Accounting and Reporting, Revenue and Taxation Code Section 97.70 (c)(1)(B)(i) - Vehicle License Fee Adjustment Amounts. ]
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE PLAN PLAN
GRAND TOTAL $312,899 $150,198
RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES
DIRECT SALES TAX NA NA
INDIRECT SALES TAX - TAXABLE RESIDENT PURCHASES
TOWNHOME $0 $19,771
LIVE WORK UNITS $0 $991
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES $0 $20,762
NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES
DIRECT SALES TAX1
COMMERCIAL RETAIL $309,600 NA
TWO STORY OFFICE $0 NA
RESTAURANT $0 $72,702
IN-LINE RETAIL $0 $55,099
CREATIVE OFFICE $0 $0
OFFICE $0 $0
INDIRECT SALES TAX - TAXABLE EMPLOYEE PURCHASES $3,299 $1,635 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL SALES TAXES $312,899 $129,436
TAXABLE SALES PER SF1
COMMERCIAL RETAIL $300.00 $0.00
RESTAURANT $350.00
IN-LINE RETAIL $300.00
DISPLACED TAXABLE SALES2 20% 20%
1 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
EXHIBIT 6
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
DIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
SALES TAX SUMMARY
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
DISPOSABLE INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD (OWNER)
ESTIMATED AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME (ASSUMES 3:1 INCOME TO HOUSEHOLD PAYMENT RATIO) 1 RESIDENTIAL $138,092
MORTGAGE ASSUMPTIONS
RESIDENTIAL
AVERAGE PROJECTED SALES PRICE PER UNIT $689,175
AVERAGE MORTGAGE (20% DOWN PAYMENT) $551,340
ANNUAL MORTGAGE PAYMENT (4.5% FOR 30 YEARS) $33,523
ADDITIONAL ANNUAL PROPERTY TAXES & HOA $12,508
RETAIL TAXABLE EXPENDITURES (AS A % OF DISPOSABLE INCOME) RESIDENTIAL 28.0727%
RESIDENTIAL SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS (RENTAL)
DISPOSABLE INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD $90,620
RETAIL TAXABLE EXPENDITURES (AS A % OF DISPOSABLE INCOME) 31.254% EMPLOYEES (ANNUAL SPENDING PER EMPLOYEE)2 $5,945
RESIDENTIAL (ANNUAL SPENDING PER HOUSEHOLD) HOMEOWNER $19,383 RESIDENTIAL (ANNUAL SPENDING PER HOUSEHOLD) RENTAL $14,161 1 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
2 Based on typical DTA baseline assumptions.
RESIDENTIAL / NON-RESIDENTIAL INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS 2 EXHIBIT 6 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
RESIDENTIAL INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
SALES TAX % TO CITY1 1.00%
CITY RETAIL TAXABLE PURCHASE CAPTURE RATE2 50%
FY 2022-23 AD VALOREM PROPERTY TAX RATE (13115) 1.12602% PROPOSED SCHOOL CFD 0.00000%
CITY CFD SPECIAL TAXES $948.18
OTHER DIRECT ASSESSMENTS
VECTOR CONTROL $7.92
CWA WATER AVAILABILITY $10.00
MOSQUITO SURVEILLANCE $2.28
MWD WATER STANDBY CHARGE $11.50
SEWER SERVICE CHARGE $467.88
TOTAL ETR 1.336092%
NOTES
1 Estimate, subject to change.
2 Estimate, subject to change.
* All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 6 - CONTINUED
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
ESTIMATED SALES TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
SAMPLE PROPERTY TAX BILL
CITY INDIRECT SALES TAX ASSUMPTIONS
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE COMMERCIAL OFFICE COMMERCIAL OFFICE RESIDENTIAL PLAN PLAN TOTAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $11,637 $41,337
RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 109 $19,624
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) 109 $18,141
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $0 $37,766
NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 2.96 0.92 1.12 0.17 $6,047 $1,856
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) 2.96 0.92 1.12 0.17 $5,590 $1,715
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $11,637 $3,571
APPROVED PROPOSED
LAND USE TYPE COMMERCIAL OFFICE COMMERCIAL OFFICE RESIDENTIAL PLAN PLAN TOTAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $67,089 $88,028
RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 109 $26,988
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 109 NA
CFD 2011-012, 4 109 $38,598
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $0 $65,586
NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES1
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 2.96 0.92 1.12 0.17 $4,288 $1,434 CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 129,000 40,000 48,923 7,608 $62,800 $21,007 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL CFD SPECIAL TAXES $67,089 $22,441
LAND USE PER ACRE PER SF PER UNIT
RESIDENTIAL1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $180.04
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $166.43
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $247.60
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 4 $354.11
COMMERCIAL 1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $1,260.31
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $1,165.03
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $1,105.32
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 N/A
CFD 2011-012, 5 $0.3716
OFFICE 1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $2,520.62
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $2,330.07
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $1,105.32
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 $0.3716
INDUSTRIAL 1
CFD 98-01 IA 1 $954.24
CFD 2001-01 (FIRE) $882.10
CFD 98-02 (ZONES A - E)2 $735.96
CFD 98-02 (ZONE F)2, 3 NA
CFD 2011-012, 5 $0.8100
NOTES
1 Source: City of San Marcos. Assumes Senior Residential property is charged as Commercial property under the RMA. Subject to confirmation by the City. 2 Special assessments collected from the CFD are deposited into Special Funds, not the General Fund. Therefore, these CFD revenues are excluded from this analysis. 3 No special tax rate for Zone F has been established for the project. 4 "Townhome" Rate, per dwelling unit
5 "Retail" Rate, per building square foot
*All figures subject to rounding
APPROVED ACRES / SQ. FT. PROPOSED ACRES / SQ FT/ UNITS
APPROVED ACRES / SQ. FT. PROPOSED ACRES / SQ FT/ UNITS
FY 2022-23 SPECIAL TAX RATE
CFD SPECIAL TAX RATE ASSUMPTIONS
CFD SPECIAL TAX SUMMARY - NON-GENERAL FUND IMPACTS (EXCLUDED FROM ANALYSIS) EXHIBIT 7
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED CFD SPECIAL TAX REVENUES (CASE STUDY)
CFD SPECIAL TAX SUMMARY - GENERAL FUND IMPACTS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
APPROVED PROPOSED
PLAN PLAN
ESTIMATED RECURRING GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD EXPENDITURES1 $20,150 $48,772 TOTAL RECURRING CITY GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (EXCLUDING GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD)2 $56,935,367 TOTAL RECURRING CITY GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD3 $20,080,196 TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $77,015,563
RECURRING CITY GENERAL GOVERNMENT OVERHEAD (% OF TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES)3 35.27% MARGINAL INCREASE IN GENERAL GOVERNMENT COSTS 100%
NOTES
1 Based on total recurring project general fund expenditures (excluding general government overhead) from Exhibit 12. 2 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2022-23. *All figures subject to rounding
3 General Government Overhead Expenditures defined as costs for City Council, Administration, Housing and Neighborhood Services, City Attorney, City Clerk, Human Resources/Risk Management, Finance/Information Systems, and Real Property Services.
EXHIBIT 8
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES (CASE STUDY)
GENERAL GOVERNMENT ASSUMPTIONS
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES CALCULATION
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
APPROVED PROPOSED
REVENUE CATEGORY PLAN PLAN
FRANCHISE FEES $4,115 $9,995
LICENSES AND PERMITS $1,333 $3,275
FINES AND FORFEITURES $284 $741
TOTAL ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER REVENUES $5,732 $14,011
REVENUE CATEGORY MULTIPLIER1 BASIS
SALES TAX NA CASE STUDY
PROPERTY TAX NA CASE STUDY
FRANCHISE FEES $37.07 PERSONS SERVED
LICENSES AND PERMITS $12.01 PERSONS SERVED
FINES AND FORFEITURES $2.56 PERSONS SERVED
NOTES
1 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2022-23 *All figures subject to rounding
MULTIPLIER BASED REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS
EXHIBIT 9
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND REVENUES
MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND REVENUE SUMMARY
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
APPROVED PROPOSED
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY PLAN PLAN
PUBLIC WORKS $10,956 $26,520
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $6,973 $16,900
PUBLIC SAFETY $37,272 $90,091
PARKS AND RECREATION $1,810 $4,428
OTHER FINANCING USES $122 $350
TOTAL MULTIPLIER EXPENDITURES $57,133 $138,289
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY MULTIPLIER1 BASIS
PUBLIC WORKS $98.70 PERSONS SERVED
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $62.82 PERSONS SERVED
PUBLIC SAFETY $335.78 PERSONS SERVED
PARKS AND RECREATION $16.31 PERSONS SERVED
OTHER FINANCING USES $1.10 PERSONS SERVED
NOTES
1 Based on City of San Marcos Operating Budget, Fiscal Year 2022-23 *All figures subject to rounding
MULTIPLIER BASED EXPENDITURE ASSUMPTIONS
EXHIBIT 10
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
ESTIMATED MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES
MULTIPLIER BASED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
TOTAL REVENUE PROJECTION
REVENUE CATEGORY REVENUES TYPE METHOD DISCOUNT 1 MULTIPLIER
REVENUES INCLUDED IN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
SALES TAX $21,889,400 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
PROPERTY TAX $27,358,117 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
SPECIAL TAXES/ASSESSMENTS $6,337,000 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA TRANSIENT OCCUPANCY TAX $738,866 RECURRING CASE STUDY 0% NA FRANCHISE FEES $4,259,027 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $37.07 LICENSES AND PERMITS $1,379,350 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $12.01 FINES AND FORFEITURES $293,800 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $2.56 TOTAL INCLUDED GENERAL FUND REVENUES $62,255,560 $51.64 CHARGES FOR SERVICES 3
DEDUCTED FROM GENERAL GOV'T CHARGES $1,511,735 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM PUBLIC WORKS $1,079,532 NA NA NA NA
DEDUCTED FROM DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $728,914 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM PUBLIC SAFETY: BUILDING REGULATION CHARGES $5,575,806 NA NA NA NA DEDUCTED FROM PARKS AND RECREATION $2,580,842 NA NA NA NA TOTAL CHARGES FOR SERVICES $11,476,830
REVENUES EXCLUDED FROM FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
USE OF MONEY AND PROPERTY 4 $1,791,000 NA NA NA NA
MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES $214,560 NA NA NA NA
OTHER FINANCING SOURCES $6,479,300 NA NA NA NA
INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUES $7,194,643 NA NA NA NA
DEVELOPER FEES $11,500 NA NA NA NA
TOTAL EXCLUDED GENERAL FUND REVENUES $15,691,003
TOTAL GENERAL FUND REVENUES + CHARGES FOR SERVICES $89,423,393 TOTAL RECURRING GENERAL FUND REVENUES $62,255,560
NOTES
1 Certain revenues may not be be expected to increase one-to-one with the new development. 2 Source: FY 2022-23 Budget.
3 All Charges for Services are deducted from expenditures on Exhibit 12. 4 Interest income is modeled on a case study basis on Exhibit 8. *All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 11
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FY 2022-23 GENERAL FUND REVENUE SUMMARY
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
CHARGES FOR
TOTAL SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROJECTION
EXPENDITURE CATEGORY EXPENDITURES ADJUSTMENT TYPE METHOD1 DISCOUNT2 MULTIPLIER
EXPENDITURES INCLUDED IN FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
CITY COUNCIL $283,294 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
ADMINISTRATION $10,266,224 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT $335,896 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA CITY ATTORNEY $940,000 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
CITY CLERK $1,165,490 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA
HUMAN RESOURCES/ RISK MANAGEMENT $4,096,247 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA FINANCE/ INFORMATION SYSTEMS $4,363,173 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA REAL PROPERTY SERVICES` $141,607 RECURRING CASE STUDY NA NA TOTAL GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES $21,591,931 ($1,511,735) $20,080,196 $0.00
PUBLIC WORKS
OPERATIONS $10,259,077 $1,079,532 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $98.70 ENGINEERING $0 $0 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $0.00
STORMWATER PROGRAM MANAGEMENT $0 $0 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $0.00 TOTAL PUBLIC WORKS $10,259,077 ($1,079,532) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $9,179,545 PERSONS SERVED 0% $98.70
DEVELOPMENT SERVICES
ADMINISTRATION $1,494,468 ($122,656) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $11.94 PLANNING $1,484,910 ($121,872) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $11.86 BUILDING $1,491,629 ($122,423) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $11.92 ENGINEERING $2,386,017 ($195,829) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $19.06 WATERSHED PROGRAM MANAGEMENT $923,403 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $8.04 TOTAL DEVELOPMENT SERVICES $7,780,427 ($728,914)
$7,051,513 PERSONS SERVED 0% $62.82
PUBLIC SAFETY
FIRE DEPARTMENT $20,086,339 ($2,257,584) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $155.19 LAW ENFORCEMENT $23,374,137 ($2,627,113) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $180.59 TOTAL PUBLIC SAFETY $43,460,476 ($5,575,806)
$37,884,670 PERSONS SERVED 0% $335.78
PARKS AND RECREATION
COMMUNITY SERVICES $4,135,137 ($2,260,952) RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 0% $16.31 TOTAL PARKS AND RECREATION $4,135,137 ($2,580,842)
$1,554,295 PERSONS SERVED 0% $16.31
OTHER FINANCING USES
ANNUAL REPLACEMENT/REHAB TRANSFERS $1,265,345 RECURRING PERSONS SERVED 90% $1.10 TOTAL OTHER FINANCING SOURCES $1,265,345 $0
$1,265,345 PERSONS SERVED 90% $1.10
TOTAL INCLUDED EXPENDITURES $88,492,393 $77,015,563
EXPENDITURES EXCLUDED FROM FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
TRANSFERS OUT $931,000 NA NA NA NA
TOTAL EXCLUDED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $931,000
TOTAL GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES $89,423,393 $77,015,563 Ratio
26.07%
NOTES
1 Persons Served method assumes City population plus 50% of employees. 2 Certain expenditures may not be expected to increase one-to-one with the new development. * Source: FY 2022-23 Budget.
*All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 12
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
FY 2022-23 GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURE SUMMARY
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN PROJECT
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
$140,000,000
$160,000,000
$180,000,000
$200,000,000
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS - (APPROVED PLAN)
RECURRING JOBS
RECURRING IMPACTS
ONE-TIME JOBS
ONE TIME IMPACTS
JOB HOUSING BALANCE
SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 1A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY UNITS
- 0
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY1 EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT.2 SQ. FT.1
COMMERICAL RETAIL 0.82 129,000
OFFICE 2.88 40,000
169,000
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT
III. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES3 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES4 INDUCED EMPLOYEES4 TOTAL EMPLOYEES COMMERICAL RETAIL 106 8 14 128
OFFICE 115 28 26 169
TOTAL RECURRING EMPLOYMENT 221 36 40 297
NOTES:
4 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
1 Source: City of San Marcos.
2 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2012. 3 Based on multiplying Category SF by Employees/1,000 SF metric.
EXHIBIT 2A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
RECURRING ECONOMIC IMPACTS - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
% INCOME SPENT TOTAL RESIDENT
I. RESIDENTIAL SPENDING ASSUMPTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN CITY SPENDING / YR. - $0 28.07% $0
-
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL OUTPUT ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE OUTPUT / EMPLOYEE1 OUTPUT / YR.1 COMMERICAL RETAIL $67,385 $7,142,860
OFFICE $127,446 $14,656,251
RECURRING OUTPUT
III.CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 1 INDUCED OUTPUT 1 TOTAL OUTPUT COMMERICAL RETAIL $7,142,860 $1,329,047 $1,924,028 $10,395,935 OFFICE $14,656,251 $3,153,747 $3,982,902 $21,792,900
TOTAL RECURRING OUTPUT $21,799,110 $4,482,795 $5,906,930 $32,188,835 NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
EXHIBIT 3A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT -APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
-
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS SQ. FT.
COMMERICAL RETAIL 129,000
OFFICE 40,000
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT
IV. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDUCED EMPLOYEES 1 TOTAL EMPLOYEES COMMERICAL RETAIL 261 37 63 361
OFFICE 61 10 15 86
TOTAL ONE-TIME EMPLOYEES 322 47 78 447
NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures).
EXHIBIT 4A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ONE-TIME IMPACTS - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
ESTIMATED
I. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS UNITS COST PER SQ. FT. COST PER UNIT - 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS IMPROVEMENT VALUE1 CONSTRUCTION COST PER SQ. FT.
COMMERICAL RETAIL $38,377,500 $298
OFFICE $9,350,000 $234
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME OUTPUT
IV. CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 2 INDUCED OUTPUT 2 TOTAL OUTPUT COMMERICAL RETAIL $38,377,500 $6,624,908 $8,546,864 $53,549,272 OFFICE $9,350,000 $1,753,456 $2,051,594 $13,155,050
TOTAL ONE-TIME OUTPUT $47,727,500 $8,378,364 $10,598,458 $66,704,322 NOTES:
1 Assumes that improvement value is approximately 85% of total valuation. 2 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures). * All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 5A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. EXISTING DEMOGRAPHICS
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
HOUSING UNITS 1 32,000
EMPLOYEES 2 41,400
II. JOB IMPACTS 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
DIRECT IMPACT 221
ADDITIONAL INDIRECT 36
ADDITIONAL INDUCED 40
TOTAL 297
III. CUMULATIVE PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
EXISTING HOUSING UNITS PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 32,000 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.00%
EXISTING EMPLOYEES PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 41,697 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.72%
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
IV. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
EXISTING 1.29
EXISTING WITH PROJECT 1.30
PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.72%
NOTES:
1 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State (2022). * All figures subject to rounding
2 Source: California Employment Development Department ("EDD") - Labor Market Information Division. 3 Please see Exhibit B-1: Recurring Jobs.
EXHIBIT 6A
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
SUMMARY - APPROVED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
-
- 0
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT. SQ. FT.
COMMERICAL RETAIL 0.82 129,000
OFFICE 2.88 40,000
ECONOMIC IMPACTS CONCLUSIONS
RECURRING IMPACTS
III. JOB CREATION DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 221 76 297
IV. TOTAL OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $21,799,110 $10,389,725 $32,188,835
ONE-TIME IMPACTS
V. CONSTRUCTION JOBS DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 322 125 447
VI. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $47,727,500 $18,976,822 $66,704,322
OTHER IMPACTS
BALANCE BALANCE % INCREASE/
VII. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE EXISTING WITH PROJECT (DECREASE) CITYWIDE 1.29375 1.30303 0.72%
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS - (PROPOSED PLAN)
RECURRING JOBS
RECURRING IMPACTS
ONE-TIME JOBS
ONE TIME IMPACTS
JOB HOUSING BALANCE
SUMMARY
EXHIBIT 1b
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY UNITS
TOWNHOMES 102
LIVE WORK UNITS 7
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
LAND USE CATEGORY1 EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT.2 SQ. FT.1
RESTAURANT 2.60 25,965
IN-LINE RETAIL 0.82 22,958
CREATIVE OFFICE 2.88 6,931
OFFICE 2.88 677
56,531
RECURRING EMPLOYMENT
III. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES3 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES4 INDUCED EMPLOYEES4 TOTAL EMPLOYEES TOWNHOMES 0 0 0 0
LIVE WORK UNITS 0 0 0 0
RESTAURANT 68 4 7 79
IN-LINE RETAIL 19 1 3 23
CREATIVE OFFICE 20 5 5 30
OFFICE 2 0 0 2
TOTAL RECURRING EMPLOYMENT 109 10 15 134
NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: City of San Marcos.
2 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), 2012. 3 Based on multiplying Category SF by Employees/1,000 SF metric. 4 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
EXHIBIT 2b
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
RECURRING ECONOMIC IMPACTS - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
% INCOME SPENT TOTAL RESIDENT
I. RESIDENTIAL SPENDING ASSUMPTIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN CITY SPENDING / YR.
TOWNHOMES $138,092 28.07% $1,977,076
LIVE WORK UNITS $90,620 31.25% $99,129
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL OUTPUT ASSUMPTIONS AVERAGE OUTPUT / EMPLOYEE1 OUTPUT / YR.1 RESTAURANT $54,134 $3,681,086
IN-LINE RETAIL $67,385 $1,280,324
CREATIVE OFFICE $127,446 $2,548,913
OFFICE $127,446 $254,891
RECURRING OUTPUT
III.CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 1 INDUCED OUTPUT 1 TOTAL OUTPUT TOWNHOMES $1,977,076 $430,530 $70,837 $2,478,443
LIVE WORK UNITS $99,129 $21,586 $3,552 $124,267
RESTAURANT $3,681,086 $683,451 $997,261 $5,361,799
IN-LINE RETAIL $1,280,324 $238,225 $344,873 $1,863,422
CREATIVE OFFICE $2,548,913 $620,349 $652,629 $3,821,891 OFFICE $254,891 $62,035 $65,263 $382,189
TOTAL RECURRING OUTPUT $9,841,420 $2,056,177 $2,134,414 $14,032,011 NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers.
EXHIBIT 3b
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
TOWNHOMES 102
LIVE WORK UNITS 7
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS SQ. FT.
RESTAURANT 25,965
IN-LINE RETAIL 22,958
CREATIVE OFFICE 6,931
OFFICE 677
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME EMPLOYMENT
IV. CITY
DIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDIRECT EMPLOYEES 1 INDUCED EMPLOYEES 1 TOTAL EMPLOYEES TOWNHOMES 100 37 28 165
LIVE WORK UNITS 7 3 2 11
RESTAURANT 69 12 17 97
IN-LINE RETAIL 59 8 14 81
CREATIVE OFFICE 15 3 4 22
OFFICE 1 0 0 1
TOTAL ONE-TIME EMPLOYEES 251 63 65 379
NOTES:
* All figures subject to rounding
1 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures).
EXHIBIT 4b
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
ONE-TIME IMPACTS - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
ESTIMATED
I. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS UNITS SQ. FT. PER DWELLING UNIT COST PER UNIT TOWNHOMES 102 1012 to 1721 $175,000
LIVE WORK UNITS 7 1,023 $175,000
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COST ASSUMPTIONS IMPROVEMENT VALUE1CONSTRUCTION COST PER SQ. FT.
RESTAURANT $10,483,369 $404
IN-LINE RETAIL $8,605,806 $375
CREATIVE OFFICE $2,356,540 $340
OFFICE $172,635 $255
III. PUBLIC FACILITIES TOTAL COST
PROJECT INFRASTRUCTURE NA
ONE-TIME OUTPUT
IV. CITY
DIRECT OUTPUT INDIRECT OUTPUT 2 INDUCED OUTPUT 2 TOTAL OUTPUT TOWNHOMES $17,850,000 $4,804,080 $3,772,527 $26,426,607 LIVE WORK UNITS $1,225,000 $329,692 $258,899 $1,813,591 RESTAURANT $10,483,369 $1,966,003 $2,300,280 $14,749,652 IN-LINE RETAIL $8,605,806 $1,485,576 $1,916,557 $12,007,939 CREATIVE OFFICE $2,356,540 $441,935 $517,076 $3,315,551 OFFICE $172,635 $32,375 $37,880 $242,890
TOTAL ONE-TIME OUTPUT $40,693,350 $9,059,660 $8,803,219 $58,556,229 NOTES:
1 Assumes that improvement value is approximately 85% of total valuation. 2 Source: San Marcos City IMPLAN multipliers (IMPLAN Sector 58: Construction of new non-residential structures). * All figures subject to rounding
EXHIBIT 5b
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. EXISTING DEMOGRAPHICS
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
HOUSING UNITS 1 32,000
EMPLOYEES 2 41,400
II. JOB IMPACTS 3
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
DIRECT IMPACT 109
ADDITIONAL INDIRECT 10
ADDITIONAL INDUCED 15
TOTAL 134
III. CUMULATIVE PROJECT DEMOGRAPHICS
EXISTING HOUSING UNITS PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 32,109 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.34%
EXISTING EMPLOYEES PLUS PROJECT - CITY OF SAN MARCOS 41,534 PERCENTAGE INCREASE 0.32%
JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
IV. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE
CITY OF SAN MARCOS
EXISTING 1.29
EXISTING WITH PROJECT 1.29
PERCENTAGE INCREASE -0.02%
NOTES:
1 Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State (2022). * All figures subject to rounding
2 Source: California Employment Development Department ("EDD") - Labor Market Information Division. 3 Please see Exhibit B-1: Recurring Jobs.
EXHIBIT 6B
MARCOS SPECIFIC PLAN
SUMMARY - PROPOSED PLAN
ASSUMPTIONS
I. RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS UNITS
TOWNHOMES 102
LIVE WORK UNITS 7
II. NON-RESIDENTIAL LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYEES/1,000 SQ. FT. SQ. FT.
RESTAURANT 2.60 25,965
IN-LINE RETAIL 0.82 22,958
CREATIVE OFFICE 2.88 6,931
OFFICE 2.88 677
ECONOMIC IMPACTS CONCLUSIONS
RECURRING IMPACTS
III. JOB CREATION DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 109 25 134
IV. TOTAL OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $9,841,420 $4,190,591 $14,032,011
ONE-TIME IMPACTS
V. CONSTRUCTION JOBS DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE 251 128 379
VI. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT DIRECT INDIRECT/INDUCED TOTAL
CITYWIDE $40,693,350 $17,862,879 $58,556,229
OTHER IMPACTS
BALANCE BALANCE % INCREASE/
VII. JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE EXISTING WITH PROJECT (DECREASE) CITYWIDE 1.294 1.294 -0.02%
Marcos Specific Plan – San Marcos, CA
DTA City of San Marcos
February 2023
Key Findings 4
Site Plan Analysis 9
Competitive Commercial Market Assessment 15
San Diego Light Industrial Market Overview 21
San Diego Office Market Overview 24
San Diego Retail Market Overview 27
Residential Mixed-Use Market Positioning 30
Competitive For-Sale Market Positioning 34
Competitive Rental Apartment Positioning 41
Location Analysis 48
Land Use & Zoning Analysis 57
Demographic Overview 69
Economic Overview 77
Appendix 84
3 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Background/Objectives, Key Contacts & Limiting Conditions
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES
The City of San Marcos (the “City”) requires a comparative analysis from a fiscal, economic, and market perspective for the approval of a change in General Plan use and zoning designations of the Subject Property located at the southwest corner of Grand Avenue and Linda Vista Drive in the 92078 zip code of the City of San Marcos. The site is currently vacant and is bifurcated by a creek into a West and East Parcel. Currently zoning is Commercial (C), and proposed zoning is Specific Plan Area (SPA). The proposed redevelopment entails 102 residential condominium units (presumed to be for-sale) on the West Parcel, with 63,746 square feet of Mixed-Use Commercial Retail and Office space on the East Parcel, as well as seven live-work residential for-sale units. The purpose of the amendment and rezone is to provide more practical development standards which conform to the intended land uses.
Your goal is to understand the market-based opportunity for this site, in light of today’s current and expected economic and housing market conditions.
Note: This report was completed following the global COVID-19 pandemic, during an aggressive Fed tightening schedule. The recommendations contained herein reflect the most recent data available, but are subject to change as the market evolves.
Client is responsible for representations about the development plans, marketing expectations and for disclosure of any significant information that might affect the ultimate realization of the projected results. There will usually be differences between projected and actual results because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and the difference may be material. We have no responsibility to update our report for events and circumstances occurring after the date of our report. Payment of any and all of our fees and expenses is not in any way contingent upon any factor other than our providing services related to this report.
LIMITING CONDITIONS
The following key team members participated on this analysis:
Tim Sullivan, Senior Managing Principal, oversees our Advisory practice. With over 39 years of experience, Mr. Sullivan is an expert in residential and mixed use feasibility studies, strategic planning and product development, and regularly conducts market analyses around the United States and internationally.
Alexis Wilmot, Senior Manager, managed the engagement on a day- to-day basis. Ms. Wilmot has over seven years of experience as a consultant in the real estate industry. She regularly analyzes residential and mixed-use developments around the country, with a focus on land uses in Southern California and San Diego specifically.
Additional support was provided as needed.
KEY CONTACTS
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
4 Key Findings
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
5 Opportunity Summary
Key Findings
As part of our due diligence for the Subject, we compared the existing land use (Commercial, referred to hereafter as the “Original”) and “Proposed” rezone land use (SPA) using a S.W.O.T analysis. The main advantage of the rezone over the Original Use is that the site provides new for-sale townhome product to undersupplied San Marcos, proximate to a full-scale Mixed-Use walkable retail and office complex which introduces creative office space rarely available in San Marcos.
Plan Element SWOT
Internal Factors
Strengths
Original Site Plan Commercial zoning is consistent with land uses immediately adjacent to the Subject The site is near a freeway exit making it ideal for commercial and office space for commuters Retail and office space occupancy is growing after losses from the pandemic Proposed Site Plan Proximity to Grand Plaza for nearby retail, services, and food Limited new apartment and for-sale townhome supply in San Marcos Limited new retail and restaurant space around the Subject site The proposed site offers a new concept of combined retail and residential space Weaknesses
Original Site Plan The current site and zoning does not maximize the potential of the area The site, although zoned Commercial, is in a more industrial area suggesting that retail and office space woould have to be carefully planned and curated as a recreatoinal expereince in order to succeed adjacent to current land uses The Office market is still recovering from the effects of COVID-19, and a limited set of office configurations are currently sought after Proposed Site Plan Could negatively impact traffic during peak hours with one main road leading to the residential neighborhood along W San Marcos Blvd The site's location next to the freeway could result in noise issues for the townhome residences High density product with higher bedroom count may result in tight floor plan layouts External Factors
Opportunities
Original Site Plan Commercial zone can expand with what is already west of the Subject North County is a booming commerical market and more businesses could move to the area as other San Diego areas become too expensive Proposed Site Plan No immediate residential competition in the area (most residential is north of Mission Rd or west of Santa Fe Rd) Very little creative office space in San Marcos, and the proposed creatiev office could successfully attract tenants at lucrative rents Higher interest rates are driving buyers to look for affordability and townhomes and provide a better price compared to single-family homes Smaller retail/restaurant spaces differ from the "big box" retailers currently in the area, and fit the trend of how retail is evolving in the future Threats
Original Site Plan Office vacancies are still high, albeit more favorable than San Diego as a whole While improving, office and retail space is still recovering from the pandemic with lots of office vacancies, and some empty store fronts in larger spaces.
Proposed Site Plan There is uncertainty in the housing market with rising interest rates and falling prices.
There are several "big box" retailers and restaurants already in the area with Grand Plaza just west of the site Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
6 Original vs Proposed Zoning & Land Use Comparison
Key Findings
A Proposed plan for development of the entire site as mixed-use residential yielding 102 townhome units on the West Parcel and a true Mixed-Use walkable Commercial retail and Office community on the East Parcel with 63,746 square feet of retail and office space, several open space communal pockets, and seven live-work units. As currently zoned, the site could be developed with two single level retail buildings totaling 129,000 square feet, and a two-story office building of 40,000 square feet. A two-story parking structure would be necessary to support these uses, entailing 280 spaces in 36,000 square feet.
The main advantages of the Proposed Use rezone and land use designation are:
The planned Residential Mixed-Use development will bring new attainably priced for-sale product to an area that is undersupplied. Townhomes provide a more affordable
solution to single-family homes, especially in the face of rising interest rates.
The townhome development will support the small-scale
retail spaces and services which differentiate from the big box retail experience and Grand Plaza. Small kiosks and pop-up retail spaces are becoming more popular to showcase online inventory.
The current use is slightly blighted and vacant, and has been for some time. The residents of San Marcos stand benefit from having this last key piece in the City’s central core finally be developed.
Residential Mixed Use anchored by retail and office creates a walkable community with a direct connection to recreation for prospective townhome residents and retail patrons alike.
Mixed-Use development at the Subject achieves a higher
estimated value than the Original scenario large scale retail and office, making the Proposed use a more viable
development alternative.
Original Use
Proposed Use
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
7 Zonda estimated possible values for the Original Scenario with large-scale retail and office with a two-story parking structure. Lease rates are based on the latest data collected in the City of San Marcos and surrounding CMA of East Carlsbad, Vista and Escondido.
Our valuation of the Subject includes both the NOI cap rate approach and a comparison of recent sales transactions. Zonda assumptions are supported by extensive market research and interviews with local retail brokers including VOIT, REIS, JLL, CBRE, Lee & Associates, Cushman and Wakefield, and Colliers. The resulting price cross-referencing both methods is between $56.15 and $56.88 million.
Methodology and Price Assessment Conclusions – Original Use Key Findings
Zonda used the following assumptions in our assessment:
• A commercial cap rate of 6.0% for retail and 6.5% for office space, as advised by interviews with local commercial brokers. • Retail in North County is currently reporting an average vacancy rate of 5.5%. However, large scale retail is reporting a higher vacancy rate, and Zonda therefore assumed 7.5% for the Original scenario in-line retail. • Office vacancy is significantly higher at 12+%.
• Operating expenses average roughly 24% of gross receipts for Commercial Retail and Office properties, based on feedback from local brokers, and recent landlord financial statements in this space.
Type
Building
Square
Feet GLA (SF)
Est.
Monthly
Lease Rate
Est. Annual
Lease Rate Per
SF (Net)
Gross Receipts Operating
Expense %
Operating
Expenses Net Operating
Income
Vacancy
Rate Vacancy Total Est. Annual
Revenues
Cap Rate
(%) Total Value $/SF
Commercial Retail 129,000 129,000 $2.55 $30.60 $3,947,400 -24% ($947,376) $3,000,024 -7.5% ($296,055) $2,703,969 6.00% $45,066,150 $349 2-Story Office 40,000 40,000 $2.50 $30.00 $1,200,000 -24% ($288,000) $912,000 -12.0% ($144,000) $768,000 6.50% $11,815,385 $295 Original Total 169,000 169,000 $2.54 $30.46 $5,147,400 -24% ($1,235,376) $3,912,024 $0 $3,912,024 $56,881,535 $337 *Assumes all real estate property taxes, insurance, management fees (on or off-site), repairs and maintenance, and utilities are paid by tenant under a Triple Net lease.
Net Operating Income / Cap Rate Valuation Approach
Type SF/Unit # GLA (SF) $/SF $/Unit Total
Commercial Retail 129,000 1 129,000 $350 $45,150,000 $45,150,000 2-Story Office 40,000 1 40,000 $275 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 Original Total 169,000 2 169,000 $332 56,150,000 $56,150,000 Sales Transaction Valuation Approach
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
8 A comparison of the Original versus Proposed use is based on due diligence which includes research of the latest lease rates, cap rates, net operating income and sales prices for all the Original and Proposed land uses. The Proposed mixed-use scenario yields a higher land value based on both an NOI and land sales comparison. The Proposed Use is therefore more feasible, exceeding estimated land value for the Original use by between $43.2 and $43.8 million (+/-$100 million versus $56.15 to $56.88 million.
Price Assessment Conclusions – Proposed vs Original Use Key Findings
For the Residential component, Zonda used a cap rate of 5.0%, a vacancy rate of 5%, based on the industry standard of stabilization at 90%, and optimum occupancy at or above 95%, and operating expenses for the Residential component if the for-sale townhomes were to be managed as a rental property is estimated at 30%. These are consistent with current industry benchmarks and interviews with local brokers.
Type
Building
Square
Feet GLA (SF)
Est.
Monthly
Lease Rate
Est. Annual
Lease Rate Per
SF (Net)
Gross Receipts Operating
Expense %
Operating
Expenses Net Operating
Income
Vacancy
Rate Vacancy Total Est. Annual
Revenues
Cap Rate
(%) Total Value $/SF
Live-Work Units (7) 7,164 7,164 $3.56 $42.77 $306,388 -30% ($91,917) $214,472 -5.0% ($15,319) $199,152 4.50% $4,425,609 $618 Restaurant 25,965 25,965 $3.00 $36.00 $934,740 -24% ($224,338) $710,402 -7.5% ($70,106) $640,297 5.50% $11,641,762 $448 In-line Retail 22,958 22,958 $2.55 $30.60 $702,515 -24% ($168,604) $533,911 -5.5% ($38,638) $495,273 5.50% $9,004,962 $392 Creative Office 6,981 6,981 $3.00 $36.00 $251,316 -30% ($75,395) $175,921 -12.0% ($30,158) $145,763 7.00% $2,082,333 $298 Office 677 677 $3.00 $36.00 $24,372 -24% ($5,849) $18,523 -12.0% ($2,925) $15,598 6.50% $239,970 $354 East Parcel Total 63,745 63,745 $2.90 $34.82 $2,219,331 ($566,102) $1,653,229 ($157,146) $1,496,084 $27,394,637 $430 West Pcl For-Sale Rowhomes (102) 145,827 145,827 $2.88 $34.52 $5,034,221 -30% ($1,510,266) $3,523,955 -5.0% ($251,711) $3,272,244 4.50% $72,716,526 $499 Proposed Total 209,572 209,572 $2.88 $34.61 $7,253,552 ($2,076,368) $5,177,184 ($408,857) $4,768,327 $100,111,163 $478 Commercial Retail 129,000 129,000 $2.55 $30.60 $3,947,400 -24% ($947,376) $3,000,024 -7.5% ($296,055) $2,703,969 6.00% $45,066,150 $349 2-Story Office 40,000 40,000 $2.50 $30.00 $1,200,000 -24% ($288,000) $912,000 -12.0% ($144,000) $768,000 6.50% $11,815,385 $295 Original Total 169,000 169,000 $2.54 $30.46 $5,147,400 -24% ($1,235,376) $3,912,024 $0 $3,912,024 $56,881,535 $337 Net Operating Income / Cap Rate Valuation Approach
Type SF/Unit # GLA (SF) $/SF $/Unit Total # Units SF Rent $/SF Live-Work Units (7) 1,023 7 7,164 $595 $608,471 $4,259,297 1 1012 $3,625 $3.58 Restaurant 2,885 9 25,965 $473 $1,364,605 $12,281,445 6 1025 $3,650 $3.56 In-line Retail 1,044 22 22,958 $441 $460,204 $10,124,478 7 1023 $3,646 $3.56 Creative Office 1,396 5 6,981 $400 $558,480 $2,792,400 17 1067 $3,675 $3.44 Office 677 1 677 $300 $203,100 $203,100 17 1161 $3,765 $3.24 East Parcel Total 7,025 44 63,745 $455 $674,107 $29,660,720 24 1454 $4,060 $2.79 West Pcl For-Sale Rowhomes (102) 1,430 102 145,827 $482 $689,175 $70,295,850 17 1591 $4,170 $2.62 Proposed Total 8,455 146 209,572 $459 $684,634 $99,956,570 17 1694 $4,290 $2.53 Commercial Retail 129,000 1 129,000 $350 $45,150,000 $45,150,000 10 1721 $4,325 $2.51 2-Story Office 40,000 1 40,000 $275 $11,000,000 $11,000,000 102 1430 $4,029 $2.88 Original Total 169,000 2 169,000 $332 56,150,000 $56,150,000 Sales Transaction Valuation Approach 109 Units - Proposed Scenario Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
9 Site Plan Analysis
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
10 Aerial of Surrounding Uses
Site Plan Analysis
Surrounding uses include the Grand Plaza shopping mall on the west side of Via Vera Cruz and Industrial facilities. The Subject is currently a vacant lot on the northwest corner of Linda Vista Dr and Grand Ave with existing vegetation and concrete.
Grand Plaza
Industrial site
Industrial site
Industrial site
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
11 Possible Layout of Original Land Use
Site Plan Analysis
The alternative use for the site includes all commercial buildings. Should the site retain its current zoning (Commercial (C)), it will be comprised of retail, office, and parking. There will be two retail buildings, one 64,000 square feet on the east side of the site and one 65,000 square feet on the west side of the site for a total of 129,000 square feet of retail. There will also be one two-story, 40,000 square foot office building on the east side of the site, and one two-story, 36,000 square foot parking structure with 140 parking spaces per story (280 total). This fits the zoning requirements for a commercial plot this size (+/- 11 acres including the existing creek bisecting the property).
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
12 Proposed Site Plan – Level One
Site Plan Analysis
The Subject East Parcel totals 63,746 square feet with:
• 7,164 square feet of live-work space in the form of seven two-story units, • 102 townhome units, with an additional 4,094 square feet of private outdoor space, • 7,658 square feet of office space (one 677-square foot space is regular office and the balance is creative office), and • 48,923 total square feet of restaurant/retailspace with 42,269 enclosed square feet and 6,654 square feet of patio space.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
13 Proposed Site Plan – Level Two
Site Plan Analysis
The second story comprises the upper floor of the creative office spaces, a second-floor restaurant space, likely suited for fine dining, a second level retail kiosk, the second floors of the seven live work units, and the sole 677-square foot office space. The planned 278 parking spaces will be provided along the outer edge of the property.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
14 Proposed Site Plan – West Side
Site Plan Analysis
The west side of the property is proposed as 102 multi-family condominiums. There will be six unit types ranging from a two-bedroom, two-bathroom, one story, 1,067 square foot unit to a three-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath, three-story, 1,721 square foot unit, each with a two-car garage. There will be six building types, four-plex, five-plex, two seven-plex configurations, eight-plex, and ten-plex with two elevation types. Amenities will include a pool and spa, BBQ area, picnic area, and tot lot/play area, and 34 guest parking spots.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
15 Competitive Commercial
Market
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
16 The Original and Proposed site plans include office space as part of the commercial product. Recent office sales in North County San Diego are selling between $212 and $469 per
square foot with cap rates +/- 6.0%.
• Original 40,000 square foot, two-story Office: Zonda
assumed a sales price of $295 per square foot and a cap rate of 6.5%.
• Proposed 677 square foot single Office: a sales price of $354 per square foot and a 6.5% cap rate,
• Proposed 6,981 square feet of Creative Office Space: a sales price of $298 per square foot and a 7% cap rate.
This is on the higher end of the competitive market,
though most listings and current sales are for buildings built before 2010.
Office Sales
Competitive Commercial Market
Property Name
No. Address Acreage Year Built Type Square Feet Sale Price Price/ SF Cap Rate Sale Date 1 Rancho Santa Fe Rd Prof Bldg 0.48 1981 Multi Tenant 24,447 $5,090,843 $208 - 6/29/2021 365 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd 24,447 $5,090,843 $208
San Marcos, 92078
2 Via Vera Cruz Office Park 4.57 2008 Multi Tenant 32,687 $7,100,000 $217 -- 1/21/2020 334 Via Vera Cruz 32,687 $7,100,000 $217
San Marcos, 92078
3 Park Place North 0.92 2008 Multi Tenant 2,909 $875,000 $301 - Lisitng 950 Boardwalk Multi Tenant 2,917 $825,000 $283 Lisitng
San Marcos, 92078 5,826 1,700,000 292
4 San Marcos Plaza 2.48 1989/2022 Showroom/Prof office 2,570 $694,000 $270 340 Rancheros 2,578 $696,000 $270
San Marcos, 92069 2,438 $707,000 $290
1,507 $384,000 $255
1,469 $375,000 $255
1,666 $354,000 $212
2,255 $575,000 $255
1,991 $575,000 $289
4,198 $1,240,000 $295
0.11 1982 1,377 $351,000 $255 - Listing
22,049 5,951,000 270
5 Rancho Santa Fe Center 1.00 1989 General Office 17,737 $4,000,000 $226 - Listing 371-375 S RSF Rd 17,737 $4,000,000 $226
San Marcos, 92078
6 Park Place South 0.56 2008 General Office 2,081 $975,000 $469 - Listing 955 Boardwalk 2,660 $758,500 $285
San Marcos, 92078 4,741 $1,733,500 $366
7 Balfour Corporate Center 1.13 2005 Office 1,640 $517,000 $315 - Listing 5927 Balfour Ct 1,640 $517,000 $315
Calrsbad, 92009
8 Capital Waters - 2007 Office 2,886 $1,030,000 $357 6.35% 6/23/2021 6124 Innovation Way 2,886 $1,030,000 $357
Carlsbad, 92009
9 Palomar Airport 0.74 2005/2014 Office 1,522 $419,000 $275 6.00% 10/5/2020 2100 Palomar Airport Rd 1,522 $419,000 $275
Carlsbad, 92011
Min 1,377 $351,000 $212 6.00%
Max 22,049 $7,100,000 $469 6.35%
Median 2,570 $707,000 $283 6.18%
Average 12,384 $2,951,816 $272 6.18%
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
17 For the Original scenario, Zonda assumed a lease rate of $2.50 per square foot per month for the two-story office space. The recommended lease rate for the Proposed office and creative office space is higher, at $3.00 per square foot per month to adjust for smaller, specially curated spaces.
For the original and proposed regular office space, a 24% operative expense and 12% vacancy rate was assumed, and a 30% operative expense and 12% vacancy rate was assumed
for the creative office space. Leases for competitive products in North County are between $2.14 and $2.92 per square
foot per month for older buildings.
Office Leases
Competitive Commercial market
Building Name Total Building Asking Lease Rate Asking Lease Rate No. Address Status Class Built Leasable SF (Per SF Per Year) (Per SF Per Mo) Net Eff Lease Rate 1 Vera Cruz Office Park
334 Via Vera Cruz Leased B 1981 28,000 28,000 $25.71 $2.14 $19.25 $1.60 San Marcos, 92078 Total 28,000 $25.71 $2.14 $19.25 $1.60 2 Park Place
910 W San Marcos Blvd Leased B 1980 18,240 18,240 $32.27 $2.69 $24.16 $2.01 San Marcos, 92078 Total 18,240 $32.27 $2.69 $24.16 $2.01 3 RSF Rd Professoinal Building
365 S Rancho Santa Fe Leased B 1981 24,447 24,447 $26.86 $2.24 $20.11 $1.68 San Marcos, 92078 Total 24,447 $26.86 $2.24 $20.11 $1.68 4 North City West
111 Campus Waqy Leased A 2017 20,000 20,000 $28.69 $2.39 $21.48 $1.79 San Marcos, 92078 Total 20,000 $28.69 $2.39 $21.48 $1.79 5 Gateway at San Marcos
100 E San Marcos Blvd Leased A 2002 64,981 64,981 $32.91 $2.74 $24.64 $2.05 San Marcos, 92078 Total 64,981 $16.80 $2.74 $24.64 $2.05 6 Civic View Corporate Park
300 Rancheros Dr Leased A 2008 95,446 95,446 $34.98 $2.92 $26.19 $2.18 San Marcos, 92069 Total 95,446 $34.98 $2.92 $26.19 $2.18 7 North County Corporate Center
277 Rancheros Dr Leased B 2000 20,845 20,845 $32.90 $2.74 $24.63 $2.05 San Marcos, 92069 Total 20,845 $32.90 $2.74 $24.63 $2.05 8 Civic View Corporate Center Listing A 2008 95,531 9,336 $34.20 $2.85 300 Rancheros Drive
San Marcos, 92069 Total 9,336 $34.20 $2.85
9 330-340 Rancheros Dr Listing C 2006 4,795 2,147 $30.60 $2.55 San Marcos Plaza 1,324 $30.60 $2.55
San Marcos, CA 92069 1,324 $30.60 $2.55
Total 4,795 $30.60 $2.55
10 Palomar Crest Corporate Center Listing B 2017 81,810 3,603 $28.80 $2.40 2701 Loker Ave 5,897 $28.80 $2.40
Carlsbad, 92010 3,724 $28.80 $2.40
3,723 $28.80 $2.40
Total 16,947 $28.80 $2.40
11 Rancheros Commercial Park Listing A 1992 45,327 5,249 $27.00 $2.25 570 Rancheros Drive
San Marcos, 92069 Total 5,249 $27.00 $2.25
12 Creekside Market Place Listing B 2006 9,246 1,317 $27.00 $2.25 744 Grand Ave 2,141 $30.00 $2.50
San Marcos, 92078 1,532 $27.00 $2.25
2,141 $30.00 $2.50
Total 7,131 $28.50 $2.38
13 San Marcos Civic Center Listing A 2018 54,703 6,770 $31.80 $2.65 1 Civic Center Dr 3,400 $31.80 $2.65
San Marcos, 92078 Total 10,170 $31.80 $2.65
14 Balfour Corporate Center Listing B 2005 1,200 $29.40 $2.45 5927 Balfour Ct
Carlsbad, 92009 1,200 $29.40 $2.45
Min 4,795.00 1,200 $16.80 $2.14 $19.25 $1.60
Max 95,531 95,446 $34.98 $2.92 $26.19 $2.18
Median 28,000 8,234 $29.70 $2.50 $24.16 $2.01
Average 43,336 18,122 $29.68 $2.51 $22.92 $1.91
Available Space
Net Eff
Lease Rate
Min 4,795.00 1,200 $16.80 $2.14 $19.25 $1.60
Max 95,531 95,446 $34.98 $2.92 $26.19 $2.18
Median 28,000 8,234 $29.70 $2.50 $24.16 $2.01
Average 43,336 18,122 $29.68 $2.51 $22.92 $1.91
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
18 Coworking spaces or creative office space is not commonly found in San Marcos. Zonda identified just one comparable at North City, shown below both in lease and sale terms. Based on the creative office spaces which are much larger than those at North City, we assumed a far more conservative lease rate of $3.00 per square foot for the Proposed scenario, and a slightly more conservative sales price of $400 per square foot than the $444 per square foot shown below.
For the original and proposed regular office space, a 24% operative expense and 12% vacancy rate was assumed, and a 30% operative expense and 12% vacancy rate was assumed for the creative office space. Leases for competitive products in North County are between $2.14 and $2.92 per square foot per month for older buildings.
Office Coworking Space
Competitive Commercial market
Building Name Total Building Occupancy Vacancy Asking Lease Rate Sales Price No. Address Class Type Built Acreage Leasable SF Price Available Space Rate (%) Rate (%) (Per SF Per Mo.) Per SF 1 Union Cowork A MU Rtl/Office 2014 16,200 $7,200,000 60 $20.00 Net 251 North City Drive 484 $6.51 Net
San Marcos, 92078 120 $16.67 Net
60 $15.00 Net
Total 724 95.5% 4.5% $10.01
1 Union Cowork A MU Rtl/Office 2014 16,200 $7,200,000 16,200 $444.44 251 North City Drive
San Marcos, 92078
Total 16,200 100.0% $0.00 $444.44
Min 16,200 $7,200,000 60 95.5% 4.5% $6.51 $444.44
Max 16,200 $7,200,000 16,200 95.5% 100.0% $20.00 $444.44 Median 16,200 $7,200,000 484 95.5% 52.2% $15.00 $444.44 Average 16,200 $7,200,000 4,835 95.5% 52.2% $10.01 $444.44 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
19 The Proposed plan includes several retail and
maker spaces. Current retail sales in North
County are selling for $243 to $674 per square
foot, with newer properties generally selling
for higher prices.
• Zonda assumed under the Proposed
scenario, retail at the site would be worth
the average $441 per square foot and have
a cap rate of 6% (cap rates in the
competitive market range from 5.03% to
6.61%).
• The restaurant spaces would likely sell at a
higher value similar to the median of $473
per square foot.
• The large-scale in-line commercial retail
which could be supported under the
existing or Original scenario is estimated at
a lower value of $350 per square foot,
based on the Galleria Vera Cruz listing of
$351 per square foot.
Mixed-Use Retail/Restaurant Sales
Competitive Commercial Market
Property Name
No. Address Zoning Total SF Sale Date Year Built Cap Rate Leasable SF Sale Price Price/ SF 1 Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 27513 9/20/2021 2009 5.03% 27,513 $14,084,000 $512 700 Windy Point Dr
San Marcos, 92069
2 Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 18256 1/24/2022 2004 18,256 $12,311,000 $674 712 Center Drive
San Marcos, 92069
3 Lakeshore Learning Center Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 8060 1/24/2022 1991 16,954 $5,276,500 $311 702 Center Drive
San Marcos, 92069
4 Campus Pointe II Retail MU 12104 10/19/2019 2014 5.40% 12,104 $4,600,000 $380 801-803 S.Twin Oaks Valley Rd
San Marcos, 92069
5 Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 34937 1/18/2021 1974 34,937 $8,500,000 $243 333 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd
San Marcos, CA 92078
6 Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 35000 7/1/2021 1982 6.61% 11,110 $6,050,000 $545 920 W San Marcos Blvd
San Marcos, 92078
7 Galleria Vera Cruz Nhbd Retail/Restaurant 28451 Listing 1986 5.33% 28,451 $10,000,000 $351 1001-1003 W San Marcos Blvd
San Marcos, CA 92078
8 Slater's 50/50 Restaurant 7065 1.22 1999/2014 7,065 $3,400,000 $481 110 Knoll Rd
San Marcos, 92069
9 El Dorado II Restaurant/Café MU 2150 0.05 2022 2,150 $1,018,000 $473 309 Richmar Ave
San Marcos, 92069
Min: 2,150 0.04935721 1974 5.03% 2,150 $1,018,000 $243
Max: 35,000 44585 2022 6.61% 34,937 $14,084,000 $674
Median 18,256 44296 1997.5 5.37% 16,954 $6,050,000 $473 Average: 19,282 33247.41 1998 5.59% 17,616 $7,248,833 $441 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
20 Lease rates in this Submarket range from $1.85
to $3.50 per square foot for Retail/Restaurant
Mixed-Use. Zonda used the average rate of
$2.55 per square foot for the retail spaces, and
assumed a slightly higher lease rate of $3.00
[per square foot for the restaurant spaces at the
Proposed plan.
Retail/Restaurant/Mixed-Use Leases
Competitive Commercial market
Building Name Total Building Occupancy Vacancy Asking Lease Rate No. Address Class Type Built Acreage Leasable SF Available Space Rate (%) Rate (%) (Per SF Per Mo.) Terms 1 San Marcos Food Court C Restaurant 2006 2.19 7,500 1,721 $3.00 NNN 1158 W San Marcos Blvd
San Marcos, 92078 Total 1,721 77.1% 23% $3.00
2 Galleria Vera Cruz C Inline Retail 1987 1.58 23,320 1,315 $1.90 NNN 1001 San Marcos Blvd
San Marcos, 92078 Total 1,315 94.4% 6% $1.90
3 Vons C Medical Office 1988 0.64 6,100 3,110 $2.50 NNN 671 S. Rancho Santa Fe Rd
San Marcos, 92078 Total 3,110 49.0% 51% $2.50
4 Park Place North C MU 2006 0.55 4,795 2,147 $2.55 NNN 950 Boardwalk 1,324 $2.55
San Marcos, CA 92078 1,324 $2.55
Total 4,795 0.0% 100.0% $2.55
5 ALDI - Rancho S.M. Village C Inline Retail 1988 0.64 21,687 3,110 $2.50 NNN 621-701 S. Rancho Santa Fe Rd
San Marcos, 92078 Total 3,110 85.7% 14% $2.50
6 Campus Pointe A Inline Retail 2010 0.55 4,795 1,103 $3.25 NNN 801 S Twin Oaks Valley Rd
San Marcos, CA 92078
Total 1,103 77.0% 23.0% $3.25
7 Creekside Marketplace C Inline Retail 1988 0.64 6,100 3,110 $2.50 NNN 640 Grand Ave
San Marcos, 92078 Total 3,110 49.0% 51% $2.50
8 West Vista Plaza B Inline Retail 1982 0.55 14,206 2,400 $3.50 NNN 567-575 W Vista Way 1,032 $2.50
Vista, CA 92083
Total 3,432 75.8% 24.2% $3.20
9 Arroyo Verde A Inline Retail 2022 4.85 27,200 22,000 $3.25 NNN NEC Oceanside & Rancho Del Oro
Oceanside, 92056 Total 22,000 19.1% 81% $3.25
10 Creekside at Promenade A MU Retail 2018 0.55 11,003 1,405 $1.85 NNN 6 Creekside Drive
San Marcos, CA 92078
Total 1,405 87.2% 12.8% $1.85
11 Galleria Vera Cruz C Inline Retail 1987 1.58 23,320 1,315 $1.90 NNN 1001 San Marcos Blvd
San Marcos, 92078 Total 1,315 94.4% 6% $1.90
Min 4,795 1,032 0.0% 5.6% $1.85
Max 23,320 22,000 94.4% 100.0% $3.50
Median 6,100 2,147 76.4% 23.6% $2.50
Average 11,405 3,887 63.2% 36.8% $2.55
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
21 San Diego Light Industrial
Market Overview
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
22 Demand:
Net absorption finished out the year strongly at just over 1,477 million square feet.
Vacancy:
The vacancy rate in Q4 2022 attained a record low of 2.3%, putting upward pressure on rents.
Lease Rates:
Asking lease rates remained stable at $1.28 per square foot per month.
San Diego County Industrial Market Summary
Life Sciences & Office Market Overview
Source: JLL
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
23 Demand:
Several new Industrial projects broke ground in North County as a result of demand for new large block space, accounting for the positive net absorption in San Marcos. The North County Submarket accounts for 30% of the total San Diego market.
Vacancy:
San Marcos vacancy rates for Industrial space are strong at 3.0% which is lower than the North County Submarket vacancy rate of 4.1%.
Lease Rates:
Industrial space lease rates in San Marcos are higher than North County Submarket overall, at $1.32 per square foot per month across all sub- types.
North County & San Marcos Industrial Market Summary
Industrial & Office Market Overview
Source: Voit
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
24 San Diego Office Market
Overview
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
25 Demand:
Net absorption in Q4 2022 was flat at 381,336 square feet compared to Q3, but grew almost double the 2021 volume.
Vacancy:
Total vacancy (including sublet space) in Q4 2022 increased to 12.1%, pushing concessions upwards. Landlords responded to heightened vacancy by converting office space into high-end R&D office space.
Lease Rates:
Asking lease rates remained relatively flat at $3.44 per square foot per month. Rents are 5.2% up year-over-year.
San Diego County Office Market Summary
Industrial & Office Market Overview
Source: JLL
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
26 Demand:
Until recently, sizeable office sublease spaces were being occupied by R&D/Life Sciences and Big Tech backfill. The recent slowdown in Life Sciences demand has halted acquisition of these existing buildings by lab developers. San Marcos represents roughly 12.3% of the North County Submarket, with flat absorption.
Vacancy:
San Marcos vacancy rates for Office space are currently 8.6%, but total vacancy which reflects sublease space as well is rather elevated at 11.3%.
On the positive side, occupancy in the Highway 78 Corridor of Carlsbad/Oceanside/San Marcos continues to strengthen quarter over quarter.
Lease Rates:
Office space lease rates in San Marcos are currently at $2.37 per square foot per month.
North County & San Marcos Office Market Summary
Industrial & Office Market Overview
Source: JLL
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
27 San Diego Retail Market
Overview
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
28 Inventory: North County comprises the largest share of the San Diego retail market with 21.88 million square feet, entailing 31.25% of the total 70 million square feet of space in the County. North County absorbed the largest share of new space, accounting for 358,000 square feet or
62.5% of all space year-to-date, with a further 27,200 square feet under construction. No other Submarkets have deliveries or space under construction. We can therefore conclude that the North County Submarket represents the most robust in terms of new retail growth.
Cap Rate: Cap Rates remained flats at 5.0% compared to the same time last year, and contracted slightly compared to 5.4% the previous quarter.
San Diego County Retail Market Summary
Industrial & Office Market Overview
Source: CBRE, Kidder Matthews
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
29 Vacancy: According to the Q4 2022 report by CBRE, the retail market in San Diego had an overall vacancy rate of 4.9%, with a slightly higher 5.5% in the North County Submarket. Vacancies have continued to fall quarter-over-quarter and are at a three-year low last experienced in Q3 2019.
Vacancies decreased in nearly all Submarkets as strong demand for quality spaces persists.
Lease Rates: Average asking lease rate for San Diego County is $2.36 per square foot, while North County rates are at a premium $2.47 per square foot. After climbing the entire year of 2022, leases rates fell to $2.36 NNN in Q4. Rents stayed consistent across most Submarkets but ticked upwards in North County.
Significant Local Transactions:
• Harbor Freight Tools just signed a lease for 15,000 square feet of space at 170 Knoll Road off San Marcos Blvd., just north of Highway 78. • The Mining Company Steakhouse signed a lease for 7,000 square feet at Creekside Marketplace off Twin Oaks Valley Rd in October 2022.
San Diego & North County Retail Market Summary
Industrial & Office Market Overview
Source: CBRE, Kidder Matthews
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
30 Residential Mixed-Use Market
Positioning: For Sale & Rental
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
31 Proposed Townhomes & Villas: For-Sale Product Market Rate Pricing Summary Residential Mixed-Use Analysis
Zonda’s recommended total prices average $683,992 ($497 per square foot) for the proposed 102 rowhomes and seven live work units.
Our February 2023 average base pricing is $689,175 for the three-story townhomes and $608,471 for the live work units.
Options/Upgrades: additional revenue in the form of options and upgrades spending is not reflected as Lennar (the intended developer) builds an “Everything’s Included” product.
Incentives: are not factored in as our pricing already errs on the conservative side.
Premiums: Based on the current market activity, we do not expect notable additional revenue in the form of unit premiums. ▬ Incentives ▬ ▬ Typical Spending ▬ Estimated Existing
# of Average Base Price Options/ Options / Lot Closing Closing Est.
Ref Project/Subdivision Type Configuration Units Unit Size Price Reduction Upgrades Upgrades Premiums Price $/SF Sales Rate A Townhomes West Pcl Townhomes Two Story 102 1,430 $689,175 $490 $0 $0 $0 $689,175 $482 3.00 B Live Work East Pcl Townhomes Two-Story 7 1,023 $608,471 $595 $0 $0 $0 $608,471 $595 1.00 Community Summary 109 1,404 $683,992 $497 $0 $0 $0 $683,992 $489 4.00 $500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Base Price
Unit Size
Townhomes West Pcl (Townhomes) - Two Story, 3.0 sls per mo Live Work East Pcl (Townhomes) - Two-Story, 1.0 sls per mo Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
32 Proposed: For-Sale Townhomes & Villas Market Rate Pricing Detail Residential Mixed-Use Analysis
Zonda’s recommended base prices range from $599,900 to $759,900. Monthly HOA and base property tax rate were estimated at $320 per month, and 1.25%, with a 6.0% mortgage interest rate and a 20% down payment.
Zonda used these values in our assessment of potential price as the proposed land use scenario. Our positioning rational versus the competitive for-sale residential market is explained in the following section.
Mo. ▬ Incentives ▬ ▬ Typical Spending ▬ Estimated Est. ▬ Pymt Impacting ▬ 80.0% 35.0% Subject Property Size Sales Base Base Options/ Options / Lot Closing Closing Mo. Base Addl 6.0% Qualifying Product Details Mix (SF) Bd/Ba Level Pkg Pace Price $/SF Upgrades Upgrades Premiums Price $/SF HOA Tax Taxes Mo.Pmt. Income A TOWNHOMES WEST PCL │ TBD │ MARCOS SPA │ SAN MARCOS
Product: Townhomes 17 1,067 2/2 1 2 3.0 $599,900 $562 $0 $0 $0 $599,900 $562 $320 1.25% 0.00% $3,822 $131,049 Configuration: Two Story 17 1,161 2/2 2 2 $629,900 $543 $0 $0 $0 $629,900 $543 $320 1.25% 0.00% $3,997 $137,054 Lot Dimension: Motorcourt 24 1,454 2/2.5 3 2T $695,900 $479 $0 $0 $0 $695,900 $479 $320 1.25% 0.00% $4,383 $150,264 Total Units: 102 17 1,591 3/3 3 2 $729,900 $459 $0 $0 $0 $729,900 $459 $320 1.25% 0.00% $4,581 $157,070 17 1,694 3/2.5 3 2 $745,900 $440 $0 $0 $0 $745,900 $440 $320 1.25% 0.00% $4,675 $160,273 10 1,721 3/3.5 3 2 $759,900 $442 $0 $0 $0 $759,900 $442 $320 1.25% 0.00% $4,756 $163,075 102 1,430 Total SF 3.0 $689,175 $490 $0 $0 $0 $689,175 $482 $320 1.25% 0.00% $4,343 $148,918 B LIVE WORK EAST PCL │ TBD │ MARCOS SPA │ SAN MARCOS
Product: Townhomes 1 1,012 2/2 2 2 1.0 $605,900 $599 $0 $0 $0 $605,900 $599 $320 1.25% 0.00% $3,857 $132,250 Configuration: Two-Story 6 1,025 2/2 2 2 $608,900 $594 $0 $0 $0 $608,900 $594 $320 1.20% 0.00% $3,849 $131,980 Lot Dimension: Green Court
Total Units: 7
7 1,023 Total SF 1.0 $608,471 $595 $0 $0 $0 $608,471 $595 $320 1.21% 0.00% $3,851 $132,019 145,827
7,164
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
33 Proposed: Market Rate Apartment Rental Summary
Residential Mixed-Use Analysis
Zonda’s recommended rents average $4,005 ($2.92 per square foot) across both products, with an average of $2.88 per saquare foot for the West Parcel townhomes, and $3.56 per square foot for the live works on the East Parcel. We researched comparable communities and average rents in the San Marcos region to recommend target rents. We also programmed a one-month concession during the lease-up period to attract renters, but this would only apply during lease up and is therefore not factored into our NOI calculations to determine possible land value as a mixed use development.
$3,000
$3,250
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
$4,250
$4,500
600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Average Rent
Unit Size (Square Feet)
West Parcel 102 Townhomes (2&3-Story)
DTA - City of San Marcos, 20/Mo.
East Parcel 7 Live-Work (2-Story) DTA - City
of San Marcos, 20/Mo.
Source: Meyers LLC
Building # of Est % of Average Base Average Rent Base Net Effective Average Net Effective Project Type Stories Units Total Units Unit Size Rent $/SF Rent $/SF Conc. Net Base $/SF Avg. Rent $/SF West Parcel 102 Townhomes Townhomes 2&3-Story 102 94% 1,430 $4,029 $2.88 $4,029 $2.88 $0 $4,029 $2.88 $4,029 $2.82 East Parcel 7 Live-Work Townhomes 2-Story 7 6% 1,023 $3,646 $3.56 $3,646 $3.56 $0 $3,646 $3.56 $3,646 $3.56 109 100% 1,404 $4,005 $2.92 $4,005 $2.92 $0 $4,005 $2.92 $4,005 $2.87Community Summary Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
34 Competitive For-Sale
Market Positioning
35 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Competitive Project Location Summary
Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
Zonda considered comparable townhome communities proximate to the Subject site, located in San Marcos, Vista and Escondido.
Silverado, Mission Villas 2, Amber at Sunrise, Jade at Sunrise, and Eclipse are all townhome communities. Their locations in relation to the Subject are shown below.
Jade at
Sunrise
Mission
Villas 2
Silverado
Eclipse
Contracts/ Avg. ▬ Incentive ▬ ▬ Typ. Spend. ▬ Est. Est. ▬ Pymt Imp. ▬ Total Sales L3M Unit Base Price Opt. / Opt. / Lot Closing Closing Closing $/ Mo. Mo.
Ref Community - Builder City/Master Plan* Config. Units Pace SP Size Price Reduc. Upgrd. Upgrd. Prem. Price $/SF Incentive HOA Tax Paymnt 1 Amber at Sunrise - Lennar Sunrise* ATT 100 - - 1,553 $640,400 $0 $0 $19,212 $3,202 $662,814 $427 -$3,000 $356 1.5% $4,177 2 Jade at Sunrise - Lennar Sunrise* ATT 92 8.68 9.00 1,687 $638,100 $0 $0 $19,143 $3,191 $660,434 $398 -$3,000 $356 1.5% $4,164 3 Mission Villas 2 - KB Home San Marcos 3-story BTB 67 5.88 7.33 1,374 $729,323 $0 $0 $21,880 $3,647 $754,850 $558 $0 $337 1.3% $4,554 4 Silverado - KB Home Vista 2-Story Row 62 4.63 3.33 1,835 $760,718 $0 $0 $22,822 $3,804 $787,343 $429 $0 $300 1.2% $4,664 5 Eclipse - California West Communities Escondido 3-story Row 113 6.57 6.67 1,383 $640,150 $0 $0 $19,205 $3,201 $662,555 $485 $0 $274 1.8% $4,266 Total Units - CMA: 87 Average: 6.44 6.58 1,566 $681,738 $0 $0 $20,452 $3,409 $705,599 $459 -$1,200 $325 1.4% $4,365 36 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Total Price Positioning vs Competitive Market
Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
$800,000
$850,000
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
Estimated Closing Price
Unit Size
Townhomes West Pcl (Townhomes) - Two Story, 3.0 sls per mo Live Work East Pcl (Townhomes) - Two-Story, 1.0 sls per mo Eclipse - Three-Story THs, California West, 4.6/0.7 sls per mo.
Amber at Sunrise - Two-Story THs, Lennar, 4.2/4.0 sls per mo.
Jade at Sunrise - Three-Story THs, Lennar, 6.5/6.7 sls per mo.
Mission Villas 2 - Three-Story THs, KB Home, 3.8/1.7 sls per mo.
Silverado - Two-Story THs, KB Home, 2.8/2.0 sls per mo.
Metis - Poway Commons - Three-Story THs, Meridian, 0.5/1.0 sls per mo.
Source: Zonda
Proposed total pricing is sandwiched between Mission Villas 2 in North San Marcos and the two Sunrise communities in a less desirable location. Positioning is in line with townhomes selling at Silverado in Vista and Eclipse in Escondido. Mission Villas 2 and Eclipse are comparable to the townhome product plotted on the West Parcel, while the Live-Work units on the East Parcel should garner a small premium for situation amidst the bustle of the retail and creative office space. Amber and Jade at Sunrise are located in a challenging area of San Marcos, and therefore represent the lowest end of this attached Submarket. Jade is a two-story product, again providing a tradeoff between poorer location and lower density compared to the three-story Townhomes on the West Parcel. It should be noted that while higher Subject prices are possible, Zonda’s recommendations are intentionally conservative to hedge against future market fluctuations in response to inflation.
37 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Total Price Positioning vs Monthly Payment
Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
$3,500
$3,750
$4,000
$4,250
$4,500
$4,750
$5,000
$5,250
1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 Estimated Monthly Payment
Unit Size
Townhomes West Pcl (Townhomes) - Two Story, 3.0 sls per mo Live Work East Pcl (Townhomes) - Two-Story, 1.0 sls per mo Eclipse - Three-Story THs, California West, 4.6/0.7 sls per mo.
Amber at Sunrise - Two-Story THs, Lennar, 4.2/4.0 sls per mo.
Jade at Sunrise - Three-Story THs, Lennar, 6.5/6.7 sls per mo.
Mission Villas 2 - Three-Story THs, KB Home, 3.8/1.7 sls per mo.
Silverado - Two-Story THs, KB Home, 2.8/2.0 sls per mo.
Metis - Poway Commons - Three-Story THs, Meridian, 0.5/1.0 sls per mo.
Source: Zonda
The Subject is appropriately positioned in the midst of the market when compared to new home monthly payments at other competitive communities. Zonda assumed an HOA fee of roughly $320 at the Subject, along with a total property tax rate of 1.25%, but we have not confirmed this with the Builder. These numbers could be significantly higher, and we took this into consideration in our positioning, which leaves room for an increase in the actuals.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
38 Competitive For-Sale Market Detail
Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
▬ Incentives ▬ ▬ Typical Spending ▬ Estimated Est. ▬ Pymt Impacting ▬ 80.0% 35.0% Project Size Base Price Options/ Options / Lot Closing Closing Closing $/ Mo. Base Addl 5.5% Qualifying Project Detail (SF) Bd/Ba Level Pkg Price Reduction Upgrades Upgrades Premiums Price $/SF Incentive HOA Tax Taxes Mo.Pmt. Income 1 Amber at Sunrise │ Lennar │ Sunrise │ San Marcos │ Townhomes - ATT OR ATT Total Units/Remaining: 100 / 95 1,468 3/2.5 2 2 $620,900 $0 $0 $18,627 $3,105 $642,632 $438 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,066 $162,640 Contracts: 5 1,497 3/2.5 2 2 $628,900 $0 $0 $18,867 $3,145 $650,912 $435 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,112 $164,464 Sales Pace Overall: - 1,615 3/2.5 2 2 $650,900 $0 $0 $19,527 $3,255 $673,682 $417 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,237 $169,482 Sales Pace L3M: - 1,632 3/2.5 2 2 $660,900 $0 $0 $19,827 $3,305 $684,032 $419 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,294 $171,763 1,553 $640,400 $0 $0 $19,212 $3,202 $662,814 $427 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,177 $167,087 2 Jade at Sunrise │ Lennar │ Sunrise │ San Marcos │ Townhomes - ATT OR ATT │ Expected Sell-Out By 02/23 at 8.68 per mo.
Total Units/Remaining: 92 / 62 1,231 2/2.5 3 2 $559,900 $0 $0 $16,797 $2,800 $579,497 $471 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.4% $3,718 $148,727 Contracts: 30 1,501 3/3 3 2 $612,900 $0 $0 $18,387 $3,065 $634,352 $423 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,020 $160,815 Sales Pace Overall: 8.7 1,858 3/3.5 3 2 $655,900 $0 $0 $19,677 $3,280 $678,857 $365 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,266 $170,622 Sales Pace L3M: 9.0 1,911 4/3.5 3 2 $680,900 $0 $0 $20,427 $3,405 $704,732 $369 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,408 $176,324 1,934 4/3.5 3 2 $680,900 $0 $0 $20,427 $3,405 $704,732 $364 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,408 $176,324 1,687 $638,100 $0 $0 $19,143 $3,191 $660,434 $398 -$3,000 $356 1.2% 0.3% $4,164 $166,563 3 Mission Villas 2 │ KB Home │ San Marcos │ Townhomes - 3-story BTB │ Expected Sell-Out By 09/22 at 5.88 per mo.
Total Units/Remaining: 67 / 10 1,105 2/2.5 3 2 $647,990 $0 $0 $19,440 $3,240 $670,670 $607 $0 $337 1.1% 0.1% $4,093 $163,721 Contracts: 57 1,331 3/2.5 3 2 $741,990 $0 $0 $22,260 $3,710 $767,960 $577 $0 $337 1.1% 0.1% $4,626 $185,030 Sales Pace Overall: 5.9 1,685 3/3.5 3 2 $797,990 $0 $0 $23,940 $3,990 $825,920 $490 $0 $337 1.1% 0.1% $4,943 $197,724 Sales Pace L3M: 7.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1,374 $729,323 $0 $0 $21,880 $3,647 $754,850 $558 $0 $337 1.1% 0.1% $4,554 $182,158 4 Silverado │ KB Home │ Vista │ Townhomes - 2-Story Row │ Expected Sell-Out By 03/23 at 4.63 per mo.
Total Units/Remaining: 62 / 36 1,679 3/2.5 2 2 $699,990 $0 $0 $21,000 $3,500 $724,490 $432 $0 $300 1.2% 0.0% $4,315 $172,614 Contracts: 26 1,908 3/2.5 2 2 $786,845 $0 $0 $23,605 $3,934 $814,385 $427 $0 $300 1.2% 0.0% $4,814 $192,543 Sales Pace Overall: 4.6 1,918 3/2.5 2 2 $795,320 $0 $0 $23,860 $3,977 $823,156 $429 $0 $300 1.2% 0.0% $4,862 $194,488 Sales Pace L3M: 3.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
1,835 $760,718 $0 $0 $22,822 $3,804 $787,343 $429 $0 $300 1.2% 0.0% $4,664 $186,548 5 Eclipse │ California West Communities │ Escondido │ Townhomes - 3-story Row │ Expected Sell-Out By 04/23 at 6.57 per mo.
Total Units/Remaining: 113 / 56 1,140 2/2.5 3 2 $604,900 $0 $0 $18,147 $3,025 $626,072 $549 $0 $274 1.8% 0.0% $4,046 $161,859 Contracts: 57 1,290 2/2.5 3 2 $621,900 $0 $0 $18,657 $3,110 $643,667 $499 $0 $274 1.8% 0.0% $4,153 $166,100 Sales Pace Overall: 6.6 1,534 4/3.5 3 2 $647,900 $0 $0 $19,437 $3,240 $670,577 $437 $0 $274 1.8% 0.0% $4,315 $172,586 Sales Pace L3M: 6.7 1,568 3/2.5 3 2 $685,900 $0 $0 $20,577 $3,430 $709,907 $453 $0 $274 1.8% 0.0% $4,552 $182,066 1,383 $640,150 $0 $0 $19,205 $3,201 $662,555 $485 $0 $274 1.8% 0.0% $4,266 $170,653 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
39 Silverado – KB Home, San Marcos/Vista 92078
2-story row-town
Jade at Sunrise – Lennar, San Marcos 92078
3-story row-town
For-Sale Attached Competitors Located in San Marcos (92069, 92078) Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
Mission Villas 2 – KB Home, San Marcos 92069
3-story B2B towns
Amber at Sunrise – Lennar, San Marcos 92078
2-story row-town
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
40 Eclipse – California West Homes, Escondido 92025
3-story row-town
For-Sale Competitors Located in Escondido (92025, 92026) Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
The five afore-mentioned for-sale competitive communities were used to establish a potential value for the proposed land use as townhomes. The following section details the competitive trade market area used to establish value as the original land use designation.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
41 Competitive Rental
Apartment Positioning
42 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Competitive Project Location Summary
Competitive Rental Market Analysis
Zonda considered comparable apartment communities proximate to the Subject, located in San Marcos, Vista, and Carlsbad. All apartments were built after 2014, with Breeze Hill and Anden Townhomes being the newest built in 2019. Marisol Carlsbad located south of the Highway 78 is considered the upper end of this Submarket, and Anden Townhomes provides a perspective for three-bedroom unit rents.
Marc San Marcos
Marisol
Carlsbad
Breeze Hill
Block C
Anden TH
Skye
Management Company/ Unit Size Range Rent Range Rent/SF Avg. Eff. Rent Range Eff. Rent/SF # Community/Project Builder Story Total Occ. Min Max Avg Min Max Avg Min Max Avg Conc. Min Max Avg Min Avg Avg Traditional Apartment Competitors 231 1,081 1,287 1,169 $3,389 $3,890 $3,590 $2.86 $3.42 $3.09 $0 $3,389 $3,890 $3,590 $2.86 $3.38 $3.09 1 Marc San Marcos MG Properties Three 416 95.7% 1,025 1,357 1,179 $3,125 $3,570 $3,376 $2.63 $3.35 $2.90 $0 $3,125 $3,570 $3,376 $2.63 $3.35 $2.90 2 Block C MG Properties Five 198 95.5% 1,049 1,049 1,049 $3,341 $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 $3.20 $3.19 $0 $3,341 $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 $3.19 $3.19 3 Anden THs Greystar Three 118 94.1% 1,235 1,486 1,359 $3,883 $4,418 $4,171 $2.61 $3.58 $3.10 $0 $3,883 $4,418 $4,171 $2.61 $3.58 $3.10 4 Marisol Carlsbad Quarterra Three 278 91.7% 1,135 1,393 1,206 $3,877 $4,149 $3,994 $2.98 $3.53 $3.33 $0 $3,877 $4,149 $3,994 $2.98 $3.51 $3.33 5 Breeze Hill Sunrise Three 88 96.6% 1,036 1,036 1,036 $3,396 $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 $3.28 $3.28 $0 $3,396 $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 $3.28 $3.28 6 Skye Fairfield Three 290 93.1% 1,082 1,244 1,164 $3,130 $4,400 $3,494 $2.82 $3.54 $3.00 $0 $3,130 $4,400 $3,494 $2.82 $3.37 $3.00 43 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Zonda positioned possible rents at the Subject in line with the midst of the competitive market for units over 1,000 square feet in size.
Our proposed rents appear reasonable and fall within the rent ranges of comparable apartments in this Submarket. Note that these are theoretical rents, as the townhomes proposed are intended as for-sale. The rental analysis merely provides perspective on potential value of the residential component of Marcos Specific Plan Area from a NOI standpoint.
Total Rent Positioning vs Competitive Market
Competitive Rental Market Analysis
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
$3,800
$4,000
$4,200
$4,400
$4,600
800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 Average Rent/ Monthly Payment
Unit Size (Square Feet)
West Parcel 102 Townhomes (2&3-Story) DTA -
City of San Marcos, 20/Mo.
East Parcel 7 Live-Work (2-Story) DTA - City of San
Marcos, 20/Mo.
Marc San Marcos - 2017, Three-Story, 95.7% Occ.
Block C - 2016, Five-Story, 95.5% Occ.
Anden THs - 2019, Three-Story, 94.1% Occ.
Marisol Carlsbad - 2018, Three-Story, 91.7% Occ.
Breeze Hill - 2019, Three-Story, 96.6% Occ.
Skye - 2016, Three-Story, 93.1% Occ.
Source: Zonda Advisory; Individual Community Management Offices 44 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Competitive Rental Market Detail
Competitive Rental Market Analysis
Traditional Apartment Competitors Floorplan Summary
Project Size Pkg Current Rents Current Rent $/SF Rent Concessions Net Effective Net Effective $/SF Project Detail SF Bed Bath Level Pkg Type Low - High Avg. Low - High Avg. Direct Indirect Total Low - High Avg. Low - High Avg. 1 MARC SAN MARCOS │ MG PROPERTIES │ SAN MARCOS │ THREE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2017 % Leased/Occupancy: 95.7/95.7 1,025 3 2.0 1 1 O $3,429 - $3,429 $3,429 $3.35 - $3.35 $3.35 $0 $0 $0 $3,429 - $3,429 $3,429 $3.35 - $3.35 $3.35 Total Units/Leased: 416/398 1,155 2 3.0 2 1 O $3,125 - $3,135 $3,130 $2.71 - $2.71 $2.71 $0 $0 $0 $3,125 - $3,135 $3,130 $2.71 - $2.71 $2.71 Available Units: 18 1,357 2 2.0 2 1 O $3,570 - $3,570 $3,570 $2.63 - $2.63 $2.63 $0 $0 $0 $3,570 - $3,570 $3,570 $2.63 - $2.63 $2.63 Turnover/Monthly: -
Lease-Up Rate: -
1,179 $3,125 - $3,570 $3,376 $2.63 - $3.35 $2.86 $0 $0 $0 $3,125 - $3,570 $3,376 $2.63 - $3.35 $2.86 2 BLOCK C │ MG PROPERTIES │ SAN MARCOS │ FIVE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2016 % Leased/Occupancy: 95.5/95.5 1,049 2 2.5 2 1 O $3,341 - $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 - $3.20 $3.19 $0 $0 $0 $3,341 - $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 - $3.20 $3.19 Total Units/Leased: 198/189
Available Units: 9
Turnover/Monthly: -
Lease-Up Rate: -
1,049 $3,341 - $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 - $3.20 $3.19 $0 $0 $0 $3,341 - $3,356 $3,349 $3.18 - $3.20 $3.19 3 ANDEN THS │ GREYSTAR │ SAN MARCOS │ THREE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2019 % Leased/Occupancy: 94.1/94.1 1,235 2 2.5 3 2 DAG $4,418 - $4,418 $4,418 $3.58 - $3.58 $3.58 $0 $0 $0 $4,418 - $4,418 $4,418 $3.58 - $3.58 $3.58 Total Units/Leased: 118/111 1,357 3 3.0 3 3 DAG $4,213 - $4,213 $4,213 $3.10 - $3.10 $3.10 $0 $0 $0 $4,213 - $4,213 $4,213 $3.10 - $3.10 $3.10 Available Units: 7 1,486 3 3.0 3 4 DAG $3,883 - $3,883 $3,883 $2.61 - $2.61 $2.61 $0 $0 $0 $3,883 - $3,883 $3,883 $2.61 - $2.61 $2.61 Turnover/Monthly: -
Lease-Up Rate: -
1,359 $3,883 - $4,418 $4,171 $2.61 - $3.58 $3.07 $0 $0 $0 $3,883 - $4,418 $4,171 $2.61 - $3.58 $3.07 4 MARISOL CARLSBAD │ QUARTERRA │ CARLSBAD │ THREE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2018 % Leased/Occupancy: 91.7/91.7 1,135 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,957 - $4,007 $3,982 $3.49 - $3.53 $3.51 $0 $0 $0 $3,957 - $4,007 $3,982 $3.49 - $3.53 $3.51 Total Units/Leased: 278/255 1,142 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,942 - $3,942 $3,942 $3.45 - $3.45 $3.45 $0 $0 $0 $3,942 - $3,942 $3,942 $3.45 - $3.45 $3.45 Available Units: 23 1,152 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,877 - $3,927 $3,902 $3.37 - $3.41 $3.39 $0 $0 $0 $3,877 - $3,927 $3,902 $3.37 - $3.41 $3.39 Turnover/Monthly: - 1,393 3 2.0 1 1 O $4,149 - $4,149 $4,149 $2.98 - $2.98 $2.98 $0 $0 $0 $4,149 - $4,149 $4,149 $2.98 - $2.98 $2.98 Lease-Up Rate: -
1,206 $3,877 - $4,149 $3,994 $2.98 - $3.53 $3.31 $0 $0 $0 $3,877 - $4,149 $3,994 $2.98 - $3.53 $3.31 5 BREEZE HILL │ SUNRISE │ VISTA │ THREE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2019 % Leased/Occupancy: 96.6/96.6 1,036 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,396 - $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 - $3.28 $3.28 $0 $0 $0 $3,396 - $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 - $3.28 $3.28 Total Units/Leased: 88/85
Available Units: 3
Turnover/Monthly: -
Lease-Up Rate: -
1,036 $3,396 - $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 - $3.28 $3.28 $0 $0 $0 $3,396 - $3,396 $3,396 $3.28 - $3.28 $3.28 6 SKYE │ FAIRFIELD │ VISTA │ THREE-STORY │ YEAR BUILT - 2016 % Leased/Occupancy: 93.1/93.1 1,082 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,130 - $3,210 $3,170 $2.89 - $2.97 $2.93 $0 $0 $0 $3,130 - $3,210 $3,170 $2.89 - $2.97 $2.93 Total Units/Leased: 290/270 1,150 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,240 - $3,240 $3,240 $2.82 - $2.82 $2.82 $0 $0 $0 $3,240 - $3,240 $3,240 $2.82 - $2.82 $2.82 Available Units: 20 1,178 2 2.0 1 1 O $3,370 - $3,370 $3,370 $2.86 - $2.86 $2.86 $0 $0 $0 $3,370 - $3,370 $3,370 $2.86 - $2.86 $2.86 Turnover/Monthly: - 1,244 3 2.0 1 1 O $3,995 - $4,400 $4,198 $3.21 - $3.54 $3.37 $0 $0 $0 $3,995 - $4,400 $4,198 $3.21 - $3.54 $3.37 Lease-Up Rate: -
1,164 $3,130 - $4,400 $3,494 $2.82 - $3.54 $3.00 $0 $0 $0 $3,130 - $4,400 $3,494 $2.82 - $3.54 $3.00 45 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Anden TownhomesMarc San Marcos
Traditional Apartment Comparables
Competitive Rental Market Analysis
Block C
Breeze Hill
46 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
SkyeMarisol Carlsbad
Traditional Apartment Comparables
Competitive Rental Market Analysis
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
47 Anden is the only true townhome rental community built recently in San Marcos. Palomar Station has some
townhome units for rent, which are also reflected here.
Other townhome rental offerings are owned by private
parties at lower rents. Zonda developed possible rents for the townhomes based on these two communities. There is
only one townhome floorplan currently available at Block C, which was also used in our rent positioning at the Subject.
Townhome Rental Competitors Located in San Marcos
Competitive For-Sale Market Analysis
Anden SF $/SF Rent
1235 $3.49 $4,315
1357 $2.64 $3,587
1357 $3.12 $4,236
1486 $2.63 $3,906
1519 $2.57 $3,900
Palomar Station TH
1623 $2.22 $3,603
1765 $2.09 $3,690
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Estimated Townhome Rent/SF
Subject
Anden
Palomar Station TH
$3,000
$3,200
$3,400
$3,600
$3,800
$4,000
$4,200
$4,400
$4,600
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Estimated Townhome Rents
Subject
Anden
Palomar Station TH
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
48 Location Analysis
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
49 Current Site Photos
Location Analysis
Current site from Linda Vista
Drive looking northeast
towards site
Industrial zones north of
Subject
Current site from La Mirada
Drive looking towards site
Current site from La
Mirada Drive looking west
50 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
The Subject is a +/- 11.9-acre vacant site located surrounded by high traffic industrial, commercial, and residential zones. Rezoning the site from Commercial (C) to Specific Plan Area (SPA) which would allow the development of the for-sale multi-family condominiums and 63,000 square feet of commercial space, including eight live-work units. Grand Plaza shopping mall is across Via Vera Cruz, just west of the site. It provides shopping, services, and food options within a short walk or drive.
Source: City of San Marcos – Creek District Specific Plan Aerial Location Map
Location Analysis
San Marcos View
Estates
Grand Plaza
Shopping Mall
Palomar
Estates
Rancho Vallecitos
Mobile Home Park
Lakeview
Mobile Estates
Bradley
Park
St. Mark
Golf Club
Restaurant Row
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
51 Employees by Zip Code Drive Time Map
Location Analysis
Collectively there are 35,974 employees in the two San Marcos zip codes, with 18,046 in the Subject zip code 92078. The greatest concentration of local residents commute to destinations along the Highway 78 Corridor, although some do travel as far as Temecula and Downtown San Diego for work.
15-minute
drive time
30-minute
drive time
45-minute
drive time
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
52 Local Resident Commute Patterns
Location Analysis
The City of San Marcos accounts for almost 10% of employment for local residents. The greatest concentration (22.6%) of local residents commute to San Diego for work, while a further 15.1% commute to Carlsbad. Vista and Escondido are also employment centers which account for +/- 5% of resident commuter destinations. A large share (45.7%) of local residents travel less than 10 miles to work, with am additional 23.7% travelling 10 to 24 miles each way per day. It should be noted that the City of San Diego also includes Rancho Bernardo south along the I-15, which is less than 10 miles away.
53 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
General Location:
• The Subject is ideally located for a for-sale and commercial office/retail development owing to the close proximity of supporting commercial uses in the immediate area.
• The Subject is located across the street from the Grand Plaza shopping center that includes retail, restaurants, Sprouts Farmers Market, • The site is proximate to the Palomar College Breeze Bus stops which provides access west to Oceanside and east to Escondido.
Existing Site Conditions and Zoning:
The Subject parcel is currently vacant with Commercial (C) zoning. The site is located less than one mile south of State Route 78 (SR-78) which will feed prospective renters and buyers toward the site. • Existing Improvements:
– Concrete sidewalk runs along Grand Ave.
– Entrances along Grand Ave or Linda Vista Dr can provide different entries to each individual product. – West, across Via Vera Cruz, from the site on N Las Posas Rd is the Grand Plaza shopping mall, retail, restaurants, and fast-food. – West and south of the site are industrial buildings while north of the site is CA-78. – West of the Subject along Linda Vista Dr. is Bradley Park, which has dedicated baseball and soccer areas, a park, walking paths, and sitting areas.
• Topography: The site is relatively flat, with only existing disturbed vegetation and concrete.
Source: City of San Marcos
Current Site Conditions
Location Analysis
54 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Power Inn Apartments│ Virtua Opportunity Zone Fund I, LLC │ 54 The Subject has excellent access to public transportation options including the Breeze Bus line, the Inland Rail Trail and Rail Sprinter lines.
Area Public Transit
Location Analysis
The nearest Breeze bus stop is the Palomar
College Transit Center and is located less than
one mile east of the Subject along W Mission
Rd. The Sprinter Rail Line runs along Mission
Rd., and the closest Sprinter Rail line stop is
also at the Palomar College Transit Center less
than one mile from the Subject.
55 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
The Sprinter light rail is a 22-mile rail system that connects Oceanside, Vista, San Marcos, and Escondido, serving 15 stations along the Highway 78 corridor. The nearest Sprinter stop is the Palomar College Station stop, located less than one mile to the west along Mission Road.
Source: North County Transit District
Sprinter Transit Map
Location Analysis
56 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Subject Close-Up
1.5-mile
Source: ESRI
The high surface street traffic counts in the City of San Marcos on Grand Ave and Via Vera Cruz will positively impact the success of the site as both a commercial center, residential condominiums, or both. The average daily traffic count along Linda Vista Drive and Grand Ave next to the Subject are 3,300 and 8,900, but ADTs along S Las Posas Rd reach over 28,000 and nearly 40,000 along W San Marcos Blvd, which is very high, and conducive to the Proposed site plans.
Average Daily Traffic Count
Location Analysis
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
57 Land Use & Zoning Analysis
58 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
The Subject is located in the City of San Marcos. The San Marcos General Plan is shown below with the Subject outlined in red. The zoning for the site is currently Commercial (C). The proposed rezone for the Subject is to Specific Plan Area (SPA).
Source: City of San Marcos
Land Use Map
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
59 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
The applicant is seeking a General Plan
Amendment and a Rezone for the site
which currently falls under Commercial
(C). Under the Original Use, the Subject
11.9-acre property at northwest corner of
Grand Ave and Linda Vista Dr. could support
40,000 square feet of office space, 129,000
square feet of retail space, and 676 parking
spaces. Rezoning the land to Specific Plan
Area (SPA) allows for the development of
Commercial, Residential and Mixed-Use,
and would support the proposed 102 multi-
family condominiums and 63,746 square
feet of commercial space including seven
live-work units.
Land Use Map Detail & Alternative Plan
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
Source: City of San Marcos
60 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
According to the zoning maps from the City of San Marcos, the Subject is zoned Commercial (C). Under the current zoning, industrial sites have a limit of 60 feet maximum building height. The Alternative or Original Scenario proposes two-story buildings while the condominiums are proposed as three story with one- and two-story commercial buildings.
Zoning Map Detail
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
61 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
The Proposed Use will include six residential for-sale condominium unit types across 15 buildings and 11 commercial programs including office and retail in 62 suites, which constitutes Mixed Use (MU-1).
Source: City of San Marcos
Permitted “SPA” Land Uses
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
Specific Plan Area (SPA) Zones allow
flexibility to developers regarding land
development, however there are
some regulations. SPA Zone Specific
Plans on properties with the General
Plan land use designation of “Mixed
Use” shall include a mixed-use
component. All other properties that
are designated with a “Special
Consideration” designation on the
General Plan Land Use map shall
include a development proposal that is
consistent with the General Plan land
use, which may include residential,
senior residential, commercial, or
industrial development. Permitted
Commercial Uses are discussed in
more detail on the following pages.
62 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marco Zoning Ordinance
Permitted Uses Under the “C” Land Use Designations
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
Properties with the General Plan land use designation of “Commercial” can include a mix of recreation/education/public assembly, office/professional/business support services, service uses, industrial/manufacturing/processing uses, recycling facilities, or transportation/communication/utility uses. Below are permitted land uses for the current zoning of Commercial zones. 63 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
Permitted Commercial Land Uses
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
The following charts represent the permitted uses for an Commercial zone in the City of San Marcos. The land uses Commercial (C), Neighborhood Commercial (NC), Office Professional (OP), and Senior Residential (SR) all fall under Commercial Zoning.
The original zoning at the site is Commercial (C) highlighted below. 64 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
Permitted Mixed-Use Development Standards
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
The following charts represent the development standards for a Mixed Use 1 (MU-1) zone in the City of San Marcos. The southern two parcels are currently zoned MU-1.
65 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
Permitted Mixed-Use Land Uses
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
The following charts represent the permitted uses for a Mixed Use 1 (MU-1) zone in the City of San Marcos. Along with 202 condominium units, the proposed redevelopment includes 10,400 square feet of ground floor commercial space, and a 1.5-acre park.
66 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
Permitted Mixed-Use Land Uses
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
Additional permitted land uses.
67 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Source: City of San Marcos
Open Space Required for Mixed-Use Zones
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
The following tables represent the required open space for a Mixed Use 1 (MU-1) zone in the City of San Marcos. The top table outlines the required common outdoor open space as a percentage of the project area while the bottom table outlines the required indoor/private open space.
68 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
Title Rate
COUNTY-PROPOSITION 13 1.00000
PALOMAR HEALTH 2005A - DEBT SERVICE 0.02100
UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS SFID #1-6/04/96, 2004-1 REF 0.01223 UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS-PROP K 11/02/2010, SER 2010A 0.00761 UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS-PROP K 11/02/2010, SER 2010B 0.00189 UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS-PROP K 11/02/2010, SER 2010C 0.01305 UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS-PROP K 11/02/2010, 2017 REF 0.01325 UNIF BOND SAN MARCOS-PROP K 11/02/2010, SER 2010D 0.01842 PALOMAR COMMUNITY COLL PROP M 11/07/06, SER 2006B 0.00371 PALOMAR COMMUNITY COLL PROP M 11/07/06, 2015 REF 0.00642 PALOMAR COMMUNITY COLL PROP M 11/07/06, SER 2006C 0.00712 PALOMAR COMMUNITY COLL PROP M 11/07/06, SER 2017D 0.00365 PALOMAR COMMUNITY COLL PROP M 11/07/06, 2017 REF 0.00000 MWD D/S REMAINDER OF SDCWA 15019999 0.00350
Total Tax Rate: 1.11185
Source: SanGIS, http://www2.sdcounty.ca.gov/pts/trasearch.asp The Subject parcel is assigned to the tax rate area (TRA) 13115. An analysis of the base tax rate and additional tax obligations brings the total tax rate to 1.11185%. The breakdown of the additional tax breakdowns are listed below. The TRA (13115) is shown below in yellow.
Tax Rate Area Map
Location, Land Use & Zoning Analysis
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
69 Demographic Overview
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
70 20-Minute Drive Time CMA
Demographic Overview
The following section focuses on demographics in the competitive market area (CMA) which is defined as a 20-Minute Drive time from the Subject, and includes the areas of San Marcos, Vista, Escondido, Oceanside, Carlsbad, Rancho Bernardo and Encinitas.
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
71 Median Household Income in the CMA
Demographic Overview
The Subject Zip code 92078 has a median income of about $110,000, with concentrations of higher incomes in the census tracts south of the Subject. Incomes by zip code are shown on the inset map below, and at a census tract level on the larger map. 20-minute
drive time
30-minute
drive time
45-minute
drive time
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
72 Average Net Worth in the CMA
Demographic Overview
Average net worth in the Subject zip code
92078 is a little over $1.45M and much
higher than neighboring San Marcos zip
code 92069 at about $1M. Net worth is a
strong indicator of area wealth as it adjusts
for retirees who may no longer be working
but are nevertheless affluent.
20-minute
drive time
30-minute
drive time
45-minute
drive time
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
73 Population, Household Profile and Age
Demographic Overview
The City of San Marcos has a population of just under 100,000 living in 31,000 households which tend to be larger in size at 3.0 people compared with 2.8 for the CMA and the Subject’s zip code 92078. Median age in San Marcos overall is slightly younger than the CMA, which mirrors the 92078-zip code.
Paste Paste
Paste Paste
Source: ESRI
38.0 34.8
37.5 33.0
34.0 35.0
36.0 37.0
38.0 39.0
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 Median Age (2022)
2.8 3.0
2.8 2.65
2.70 2.75
2.80 2.85
2.90 2.95
3.00 3.05
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 Avg. HH. Size (2022)
757,335
96,062 53,836
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
CMA - 20-Minute Drive
Time
City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078
Total Population (2022)
266,453
30,943 18,427
0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
CMA - 20-Minute Drive
Time
City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078
Total Households (2022)
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
74 Income, Net Worth, Occupation & Education
Demographic Overview
The Subject’s zip code 98078 has the highest income and net worth compared to the CMA and city of San Marcos. The CMA, City of San Marcos, and Zip Code 92078 all have under 60% educational attainment and more than 60% of residents working in white-collar jobs. The north San Marcos zip code has a lower proportion of high earning professionals than the south zip code.
Paste Paste
Paste Paste
Source: ESRI
$99K
$101K
$109K
$92,000
$94,000
$96,000
$98,000
$100,000
$102,000
$104,000
$106,000
$108,000
$110,000
$112,000
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 HH. Income (2022)
$221K $212K
$329K
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 Net Worth (2022)
52.5%
50.4%
59.1%
46.0%
48.0%
50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 Educational Attainment - Associate's or Higher (2022)
65.0% 64.0%
74.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time City of San Marcos Zip Code 92078 Occupation (2022)
White Collar Services Blue Collar
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
75 Demographic Tapestry Profile
Demographic Overview
CMA - 20-Minute Drive Time
Rank Cluster Lifestyle Group Household Type Diversity Index
Own vs.
Rent Preferred Housing Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH % Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH %
1 2B: Pleasantville Upscale Avenues 60 83% Single Family 42.3 2.9 $89,300 $314,900 $355,600 2.1% 41.3 3.1 $121,802 $445,634 $870,951 10.0% 2 1C: Boomburbs Affluent Estates Married Couples 62 84% Single Family 33.7 3.2 $111,200 $348,600 $353,200 1.9% 32.9 3.5 $151,673 $493,325 $865,073 7.2% 3 1E: Exurbanites Affluent Estates Married Couples 34 85% Single Family 50.4 2.5 $101,800 $483,900 $399,400 1.9% 49.2 2.7 $138,851 $684,796 $978,228 7.2% 4 2D: Enterprising Professional Upscale Avenues Married Couples 72 52% Multi-Units; Single Family 35.1 2.5 $81,500 $93,100 $342,400 1.5% 34.3 2.7 $111,163 $131,751 $838,621 6.3% 5 8C: Bright Young Professionals Middle Ground Married Couples 66 43% Single Family; Multi-Units 32.6 2.4 $53,900 $35,700 $193,900 2.3% 31.8 2.6 $73,518 $50,521 $474,908 5.5% 6 7B: Urban Villages Ethnic Enclaves Married Couples 86 70% Single Family 33.6 3.8 $58,900 $114,300 $279,400 1.0% 32.8 4.1 $80,337 $161,753 $684,319 5.2% 7 13C: NeWest Residents Next Wave Married Couples w/ Kids 87 17% Multi-Unit Rentals 27.2 3.3 $30,000 $11,000 $140,700 0.8% 26.6 3.6 $40,919 $15,567 $344,609 5.0% 8 13A: Diverse Convergence Next Wave Married Couples w/ Kids 89 28% High Density Apts; Single Family 32.6 3.0 $42,900 $15,100 $338,900 1.2% 31.8 3.3 $58,514 $21,369 $830,048 4.9% 9 2A: Urban Chic Upscale Avenues Married Couples 47 66% Single Family 42.9 2.4 $103,600 $272,500 $577,200 1.3% 41.9 2.6 $141,307 $385,631 $1,413,703 4.3% 10 9E: Retirement Communities Senior Styles Singles 48 45% Multi-Units; Single Family 52.8 1.9 $36,900 $43,500 $175,900 1.2% 51.6 2.0 $50,330 $61,559 $430,822 4.1% City of San Marcos
Rank Cluster Lifestyle Group Household Type Diversity Index
Own vs.
Rent Preferred Housing Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH % Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH %
1 1C: Boomburbs Affluent Estates Married Couples 62 84% Single Family 33.7 3.2 $111,200 $348,600 $353,200 1.9% 30.1 3.8 $154,418 $472,855 $822,572 24.2% 2 8C: Bright Young Professionals Middle Ground Married Couples 66 43% Single Family; Multi-Units 32.6 2.4 $53,900 $35,700 $193,900 2.3% 29.2 2.8 $74,848 $48,425 $451,576 9.3% 3 13C: NeWest Residents Next Wave Married Couples w/ Kids 87 17% Multi-Unit Rentals 27.2 3.3 $30,000 $11,000 $140,700 0.8% 24.3 3.9 $41,660 $14,921 $327,678 8.8% 4 4A: Workday Drive Family Landscapes Married Couples 49 85% Single Family 36.8 3.0 $88,600 $272,200 $259,400 3.1% 32.9 3.5 $123,035 $369,223 $604,120 8.5% 5 7B: Urban Villages Ethnic Enclaves Married Couples 86 70% Single Family 33.6 3.8 $58,900 $114,300 $279,400 1.0% 30.1 4.5 $81,792 $155,041 $650,698 6.8% 6 13A: Diverse Convergence Next Wave Married Couples w/ Kids 89 28% High Density Apts; Single Family 32.6 3.0 $42,900 $15,100 $338,900 1.2% 29.2 3.6 $59,573 $20,482 $789,269 6.5% 7 2B: Pleasantville Upscale Avenues Married Couples 60 83% Single Family 42.3 2.9 $89,300 $314,900 $355,600 2.1% 37.8 3.4 $124,007 $427,143 $828,162 6.4% 8 9D: Senior Escapes Senior Styles Married Couples w/No Kids 43 75% SF; Mobile Homes/Seasonal 53.4 2.2 $37,300 $102,000 $121,600 0.9% 47.8 2.6 $51,797 $138,357 $283,196 5.1% 9 9E: Retirement Communities Senior Styles Singles 48 45% Multi-Units; Single Family 52.8 1.9 $36,900 $43,500 $175,900 1.2% 47.2 2.2 $51,241 $59,005 $409,656 4.7% 10 4B: Home Improvement Family Landscapes Married Couples 64 80% Single Family 37.4 2.9 $69,600 $186,300 $199,000 1.7% 33.5 3.4 $96,650 $252,705 $463,454 4.7% Zip Code 92078
Rank Cluster Lifestyle Group Household Type Diversity Index
Own vs.
Rent Preferred Housing Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH % Age HH
Size HH Income Net Worth Home Value HH %
1 1C: Boomburbs Affluent Estates Married Couples 62 84% Single Family 33.7 3.2 $111,200 $348,600 $353,200 1.9% 32.5 3.5 $167,800 $734,789 $916,952 35.3% 2 9E: Retirement Communities Senior Styles Singles 48 45% Multi-Units; Single Family 52.8 1.9 $36,900 $43,500 $175,900 1.2% 50.9 2.0 $55,682 $91,691 $456,659 15.9% 3 8C: Bright Young Professionals Middle Ground Married Couples 66 43% Single Family; Multi-Units 32.6 2.4 $53,900 $35,700 $193,900 2.3% 31.4 2.6 $81,335 $75,249 $503,389 15.7% 4 4A: Workday Drive Family Landscapes Married Couples 49 85% Single Family 36.8 3.0 $88,600 $272,200 $259,400 3.1% 35.5 3.2 $133,697 $573,751 $673,435 9.5% 5 9C: The Elders Senior Styles Married Couples w/No Kids 21 82% SF; High-Rises; Mob. Hm/Seas. 72.0 1.7 $38,200 $209,800 $180,100 0.7% 69.4 1.8 $57,643 $442,222 $467,562 6.2% 6 7B: Urban Villages Ethnic Enclaves Married Couples 86 70% Single Family 33.6 3.8 $58,900 $114,300 $279,400 1.0% 32.4 4.1 $88,880 $240,925 $725,358 4.4% 7 9D: Senior Escapes Senior Styles Married Couples w/No Kids 43 75% SF; Mobile Homes/Seasonal 53.4 2.2 $37,300 $102,000 $121,600 0.9% 51.5 2.4 $56,285 $214,999 $315,689 3.8% 8 2B: Pleasantville Upscale Avenues Married Couples 60 83% Single Family 42.3 2.9 $89,300 $314,900 $355,600 2.1% 40.8 3.1 $134,753 $663,755 $923,183 3.7% 9 9B: Golden Years Senior Styles Singles 42 63% Single Family; Multi-Units 51.6 2.0 $64,000 $157,100 $326,100 1.3% 49.7 2.2 $96,575 $331,140 $846,597 3.5% 10 13C: NeWest Residents Next Wave Married Couples w/ Kids 87 17% Multi-Unit Rentals 27.2 3.3 $30,000 $11,000 $140,700 0.8% 26.2 3.6 $45,270 $23,186 $365,275 2.0% Source: ESRI
National Cluster Characteristics Locally Adjusted Characteristics National Cluster Characteristics Locally Adjusted Characteristics National Cluster Characteristics Locally Adjusted Characteristics Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
76 CMA Demographic Profile
Demographic Overview
The San Marcos area is characterized by a mix of lower and high-income households, ranging from young to old. Top Lifestyle Groups include affluent “Boomburbs,” Young Professional Couples, low-income New Wave Married Couples with Kids, Comfortable Families, above average earning Ethnic Families, and Retirees. The top ten Lifestyle Groups are shown below in order of income for the City of San Marcos, with Boomburbs as the highest earners ($155,000+) and NeWest Residents as the lowest earners ($40,000).
Workday Drive
Diverse Convergence
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
77 Economic Overview
Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
78 Population Growth
MSA Economic Trends
Population growth in the MSA is expected to remain at similar levels to 2019 and 2020 between 2023 and 2027 after declining in 2021 and 2022. Positive population growth bodes well for the development of new multifamily development, especially with the limited land availability.
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Annual Population Growth
Source: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Census Bureau (BOC)
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Total Population 3,209,768 3,248,877 3,280,850 3,306,089 3,321,237 3,333,861 3,338,330 3,347,473 3,325,636 3,318,081 3,329,088 3,338,108 3,343,704 3,348,311 3,352,300 Prior Year Change 35,433 39,109 31,973 25,239 15,148 12,624 4,469 9,143 (21,838) (7,554) 11,006 9,020 5,596 4,607 3,988 Annual % Change 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% -0.7% -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
79 Residential Building Permits
MSA Economic Trends
Building permits in the MSA are expected to continue to increase through 2025 and stay above the historical average of +/- 9,276 units through 2027. Increase building permits suggests more demand for new homes in the area. 0 2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Residential Building Permits
SFD Building Permits MF Building Permits Historical AverageSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Total Building Permits 8,264 6,875 9,883 10,791 10,441 9,834 8,216 9,472 10,048 9,917 11,042 11,794 12,173 12,056 11,382 Annual % Change 45.9% -16.8% 43.8% 9.2% -3.2% -5.8% -16.5% 15.3% 6.1% -1.3% 11.3% 6.8% 3.2% -1.0% -5.6% SFD Building Permits 2,565 2,487 3,222 2,351 4,056 3,489 3,019 2,900 3,227 3,545 3,783 4,359 4,991 5,192 5,017 Annual % Change 16.8% -3.0% 29.6% -27.0% 72.5% -14.0% -13.5% -3.9% 11.3% 9.9% 6.7% 15.2% 14.5% 4.0% -3.4% MF Building Permits 5,699 4,388 6,661 8,440 6,385 6,345 5,197 6,572 6,821 6,372 7,259 7,435 7,183 6,864 6,365 Annual % Change 64.3% -23.0% 51.8% 26.7% -24.3% -0.6% -18.1% 26.5% 3.8% -6.6% 13.9% 2.4% -3.4% -4.4% -7.3% Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
80 Employment
MSA Economic Trends
After 117,000 job losses in the MSA in 2020, unemployment started to recover in 2021 and fully recovered in 2022. Moody’s projects employment will grow at a lower rate from 2023 through 2027. Unemployment spiked to 9.3% in 2020 and is forecast to remain around
3.7% for the next five years.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0 50,000
100,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Unemployment Rate
Annual Non-Farm Employment Growth
Prior Year Change Unemployment RateSource: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Non-Farm Employment 1,316,200 1,344,933 1,384,833 1,422,617 1,452,292 1,482,208 1,503,083 1,385,808 1,437,600 1,513,270 1,532,780 1,549,363 1,566,672 1,573,865 1,579,769 Prior Year Change 33,400 28,733 39,900 37,783 29,675 29,917 20,875 (117,275) 51,792 75,670 19,510 16,583 17,309 7,193 5,904 Annual % Change 2.6% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4% -7.8% 3.7% 5.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% Unemployment Rate 7.9% 6.5% 5.2% 4.7% 4.1% 3.4% 3.3% 9.5% 6.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
81 Employment by Sector
MSA Economic Trends
Year over year, the San Diego MSA is seeing growth in seven out of ten job categories. Leisure & Hospitality, one of the hardest hit industries from the pandemic, has seen the strongest job growth with over 17,000 added jobs since January 2022, followed by Education & Health Services, and Government. Financial Activities saw the biggest decline, losing over 2,000 jobs, followed by Trade, Transportation, & Utilities, and Manufacturing, which both lost +/- 1,000 jobs between January 2022 and January 2023. -2,057
276
3,255
1,180
5,525 5,474
17,193
-993
2,748
-1,043
-5,000
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Financial
Activities
Information Professional &
Business Services
Construction &
Mining
Education &
Health Services
Government Leisure &
Hospitality
Manufacturing Other Services Trade, Transp.
and Utilities
Annual Non-Farm Employment Growth
Source: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Category Financial Activities Information
Professional &
Business
Services
Construction &
Mining
Education &
Health Services Government Leisure &
Hospitality Manufacturing Other Services Trade, Transp. and Utilities
Current Month (Jan-2023) 73,166 22,740 280,891 86,645 223,874 248,345 204,038 112,820 54,563 220,690 Current Month (Jan-2022) 75,223 22,465 277,636 85,464 218,349 242,870 186,845 113,813 51,815 221,732 12-Month Change -2,057 276 3,255 1,180 5,525 5,474 17,193 -993 2,748 -1,043 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
82 E/P Ratio
MSA Economic Trends
E/P Ratios in excess of 1.2 indicate a supply-constrained housing market with implied price growth. Moody’s Economy.com predicts an E/P ratio jump to decline to 0.5 by 2027. The E/P ratio in the San Diego MSA has not been at what is considered equilibrium (1.2) since 2007 and has been above two since 2021 (excluding 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic).
0.6 1.4
1.6 2.2
1.2 -1.4
-22.4
-2.5
1.9 5.8
4.0 4.2
4.0 3.5
2.8 3.0
2.5 -12.4
5.2 7.6
1.8 1.4
1.4 0.6
0.5 -25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0 5.0
10.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F EP Ratio
Source: Moody's Analytics; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Non-Farm Employment 1,316,200 1,344,933 1,384,833 1,422,617 1,452,292 1,482,208 1,503,083 1,385,808 1,437,600 1,513,270 1,532,780 1,549,363 1,566,672 1,573,865 1,579,769 Prior Year Change 33,400 28,733 39,900 37,783 29,675 29,917 20,875 (117,275) 51,792 75,670 19,510 16,583 17,309 7,193 5,904 Building Permits 8,264 6,875 9,883 10,791 10,441 9,834 8,216 9,472 10,048 9,917 11,042 11,794 12,173 12,056 11,382 Employment/Housing 4.0 4.2 4.0 3.5 2.8 3.0 2.5 -12.4 5.2 7.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.5 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
83 Affordability Index
MSA Economic Trends
The Affordability Index is expected to increase (ie: become slightly more affordable) over the next five years, implying lower priced homes in reaction to more new home building activity and high interest rates. Previously, affordability was forecasted to decrease because of the existing and new home market price rises, so new home prices. Affordability in the San Diego MSA, which has been less than (or equal to) 100 for the last twenty years meaning it has a history of being unaffordable, is expected to stay around 57 for the next five years. While this is more affordable than 2022, these numbers are still the lowest they have been since 2007. 67 54
49 47
52 78
95 86
95 100
85 82 79 82 79
74 81 83
76 53 51
57 61 60 59
0 25
50 75
100
125
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Affordability Index
Source: Moody's Analytics; National Association of Realtors (NAR) San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - Moody's Analytics Five-Year Forecast Category 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Affordability Index 85.2 81.9 78.9 81.8 79.1 73.8 81.2 83.4 75.6 53.1 51.3 57.3 60.5 59.8 59.4 Marcos Specific Plan – DTA City of San Marcos
84 Appendix
Thank you!
Zonda
4000 MacArthur, Suite 400
Newport Beach, CA 92660
(877) 966-3210