CITY OF SAN MATEO
City Council Special Meeting
May 16, 2022
5:30 PM
City Hall Conference Room C
330 W. 20th Avenue
San Mateo CA 94403
COUNCIL MEMBERS
Rick Bonilla, Mayor
Diane Papan, Deputy Mayor
Joe Goethals
Amourence Lee
Eric Rodriguez
AGENDA
THIS MEETING IS BEING HELD PURSUANT TO THE GOVERNOR’S EXECUTIVE ORDERS WHICH SUSPEND CERTAIN REQUIREMENTS OF THE BROWN ACT.
THIS MEETING CAN BE ATTENDED IN PERSON OR REMOTE BY JOINING ZOOM – SEE CODES BELOW.
PUBLIC COMMENTS WILL BE ACCEPTED BOTH IN PERSON AND REMOTELY.
SEE END OF AGENDA FOR OPTIONS AND INSTRUCTIONS ON HOW TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MEETING.
To join via Zoom – click here: May 16, 2022 Zoom Meeting To join via telephone: (408) 638-0968
Webinar ID: 885 6682 8826 Passcode: 522999
CALL TO ORDER
Roll Call
STUDY SESSION
The public will have an opportunity to comment during the consideration of these items.
1. Potential Ballot Measures – Voter Opinion Survey Results Receive an informational report about the results of a voter opinion survey on the feasibility of two potential measures to either increase the City's sales tax rate or make changes to the City's existing real property transfer tax, and provide direction on whether to proceed with a measure on the November 2022 ballot.
2. OneShoreline – Update
Receive an update from OneShoreline on efforts addressing sea level rise in the area and provide feedback.
ADJOURNMENT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGENDAS: Agendas and material are posted on the City’s website on the Friday preceding each Council Meeting and can be viewed on the City's website at www.cityofsanmateo.org . Any supplemental material distributed to the Council after the posting of the agenda will be made part of the official record.
WATCHING A MEETING ON TV: City Council meetings are broadcast live on Comcast/channel 27, Wave/channel 26, or AT&T/channel 99.
For transmission problems during the broadcast, please call (650) 522-7099. For all other broadcast comments, call (650) 522-7040, Monday-Friday, 8 a.m. - 5 p.m.
WATCHING A MEETING ON A COMPUTER: There are three ways to stream. 1) Public Meeting Portal www.cityofsanmateo.org/publicmeetings 2) City YouTube channel and stream it on YouTube: http://youtube.com/CityofSanMateo 3) Watch TV live stream: https://www.cityofsanmateo.org/193/Channel-San-Mateo-Live-Stream (continue to next page for directions on Public Comments / Request to Speak) 1 of 61
PUBLIC COMMENTS/REQUEST TO SPEAK
Prior to the Meeting
Send comments to: [email protected] until 4 p.m. the day of the meeting.
During the meeting
By computer: Click the link at the top of the agenda and you’ll be added to the meeting. All attendees are muted by default. When the item of interest is open for consideration, select the “Raise Your Hand” icon and you will be called on at the appropriate time.
By telephone: Call (408) 638-0968 and enter the conference ID found at the top of the meeting agenda. When the item of interest is open for consideration, select *9 to raise your hand. When called upon, press *6 to unmute, state your name and provide your comments.
By Zoom: Click the link at the top of the agenda and you’ll be added to the meeting. All attendees are muted by default. When the item of interest is open for consideration, select the “Raise Your Hand” icon and you will be called on at the appropriate time.
In Person: At the meeting complete a “Request to Speak” form, submit a request at the speaker kiosk or scan the QR code.
ACCESSIBILITY: In compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, those with disabilities requiring special accommodations to participate in this meeting may contact the City Clerk’s Office at (650) 522-7040 or [email protected] . Notification 48 hours prior to the meeting will enable the City to make reasonable arrangements to ensure accessibility to this meeting. 2 of 61
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CITY OF SAN MATEO
Agenda Report
City Hall
330 W. 20th Avenue
San Mateo CA 94403
www.cityofsanmateo.org
Agenda Number: 1 Section Name: STUDY SESSION File ID: 22-6084 TO: City Council
FROM: Drew Corbett, City Manager
PREPARED BY: City Manager's Office
MEETING DATE: May 16, 2022
SUBJECT:
Potential Ballot Measures – Voter Opinion Survey Results RECOMMENDATION:
Receive an informational report about the results of a voter opinion survey on the feasibility of two potential measures to either increase the City's sales tax rate or make changes to the City's existing real property transfer tax, and provide direction on whether to proceed with a measure on the November 2022 ballot.
BACKGROUND:
On October 4, 2021 and April 18, 2022, the City Council directed staff to proceed with a voter opinion survey on potential revenue enhancement measures that could be placed on a future ballot to support a range of City services and programs.
The City hired the independent firm True North Research to conduct a statistically-significant survey on two potential general tax measures, the results of which will be presented during this meeting. A full report on the results is provided in Attachment 1.
The Council expressed an interest in understanding and comparing the feasibility of two different measures, therefore a split poll was conducted whereby half of the participants considered one option and the other half were presented with a second option. Staff from the Finance Department and City Manager’s Office worked closely with True North Research President Dr. Timothy McLarney in drafting the voter opinion survey.
Participants were asked about one of two potential options:
1) A ¼ (quarter) cent sales tax increase
2) Changing the City’s existing 0.5% real property transfer tax (RPTT) rate to a tiered system that included two options for properties sold or transferred for the following amounts:
a. No increase for properties under $2.5 million, a 0.25% increase for properties between $2.5 million to $5 million, a 0.5% percent increase for properties between $5 million to $10 million, and a 1% increase for properties over $10 million dollars.
b. No increase for properties under $3 million, a 0.25% percent increase for properties between $3 million to $5 million, a 0.5% percent increase for properties between $5 million to $10 million, and a 1% increase for properties over $10 million dollars.
Split Survey Results
The survey was conducted between April 25 and May 1, 2022, in English and Spanish to a random sampling of 678 registered voters who are likely to participate in the November 2022 election. The survey polled 339 of participants on the sales tax increase, and 339 participants on the RPTT. The statistical margin of error is +/- 3.7% for questions answered by all participants, and +/- 5.3% for questions specific to either the sales tax or real property transfer tax measure. The survey 3 of 61
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was designed to poll voters’ initial reaction to the two options, then provide information about the measure followed by an interim test, then present both negative and positive arguments, followed by a final test of the options.
Respondents’ initial reaction when only presented with the ballot language was 59% support for a 1/2% sales tax increase, and 51% support for switching RPTT to a tiered rate that includes the lowest tier set at $2.5 million. After learning more about the measures and being presented with both positive and negative arguments, support decreased for both measures. The final test indicates 54% support for a sales tax increase, and 49% support for switching RPTT to a tiered rate that includes the lowest tier set at $2.5 million. For those who did not support the RPTT, they were then asked if their opinion would change if the lowest tier was set at $3 million and support increased to 61%; however, this should be interpreted cautiously and most of the increase was soft support (meaning most of the responses were “probably yes” instead of “definitely yes.”)
Survey participants also provided input on what types of services and projects they felt most strongly about funding. The services and programs that participants felt most strongly about funding included: maintaining parks, open spaces and recreation facilities including courts, fields and playgrounds; maintaining local streets and infrastructure; providing quick responses to 911 emergencies; providing fire protection and paramedic services; and making improvements to roads, intersections, sidewalks and bike lanes to better manage congestion on city streets.
General Tax Revenue Enhancement Options
General tax measures require a simple majority of voter approval and must be placed on a ballot during a regular election, meaning the next opportunities are either November 2022 or November 2024. As a general tax, the revenue would not be tied to specific projects, however, it would go into the City’s General Fund, which is used to provide a range of services and improvements.
Note that a proposed statewide ballot measure entitled the “Taxpayer Protection and Government Accountability Act” would retroactively apply to taxes adopted after January 1, 2022 but before its effective date. Among other things, the measure would require specified ballot title and summary language for general taxes, and would prohibit an advisory measure indicating that the revenue from the general tax will, could, or should be used for a specific purpose from appearing on the same ballot. The measure would also prohibit Charter amendments that impose taxes.
Changes to Real Property Transfer Tax
As a charter city, San Mateo has an existing voter-approved real property transfer tax (RPTT) rate of 0.5% that applies to residential and commercial properties. This tax is only paid upon transfer or sale of a property, and in residential sales is customarily split between a buyer and seller.
Other charter cities in the Bay Area, including San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, Richmond, and San Jose have recently shifted from a flat rate to a tiered structure. If the City were to shift to the tiered structure, it could generate between approximately $5.6 million to $6.8 million in additional revenues per fiscal year based on the transactions that were subject to the City’s RPTT in 2020-21.
It is important to note that for properties at the lower tier, which constitute the majority of total sales, a new tiered system would not affect RPTT rates. According to the San Mateo County Association of Realtors, in 2021 in the City of San Mateo, the median sale price of a single-family home and of a condo was $1.84 million and $880,000, respectively.
During the April 18 meeting, the Council directed staff to survey on two scenarios for changes to the RPTT, which included setting the lowest tier at either $2.5 million or $3 million, as illustrated below, in millions:
Table 1: First RPTT tier up to $2.5 million
From To % of Total Tiered Rate Tiered Status Quo Difference $0 $2.5 million 89.2% 0.50% $7.3 $7.3 $0.0
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over $2.5 million $5 million 8.6% 0.75% $2.7 $1.8 $0.9
over $5 million $10 million 0.9% 1.00% $0.8 $0.4 $0.4
$10 million and above 0.5% 1.50% $7.2 $2.4 $4.8
Total (in millions) $18.0 $11.9 $6.1
Table 2: First RPTT tier up to $3.0 million
From To % of Total Tiered Rate Tiered Status Quo Difference $0 $3 million 94.4% 0.50% $8.2 $8.2 $0.0
over $3 million $5 million 4.0% 0.75% $1.4 $0.9 $0.5
over $5 million $10 million 0.9% 1.00% $0.8 $0.4 $0.4
$10 million and above 0.5% 1.50% $7.2 $2.4 $4.8
Total (in millions) $17.6 $11.9 $5.7
Sales Tax – 1/4% Cent Increase
The City’s 1/4% transactions and use tax was first approved by San Mateo voters in 2009 via Measure L, which was set to expire in March 2018. In November 2015, voters overwhelmingly approved Measure S, which extended the 1/4% transactions and use tax through March 2048. The table below lists every component that constitutes the total sales tax rate of 9.625% in the City of San Mateo.
Table 3: Sales Tax Components
Entity Description Tax Rate % Expiration Year Subject to 2% LimitState of California State Base Sales Tax 6.000 City of San Mateo Bradley-Burns 1.000 County of San Mateo Local Transportation Fund 0.250 State Base Sales Tax Rate 7.250 County of San Mateo Measure K 0.500 2043 YesSan Mateo County Transit District Measure A 0.500 2033 YesSan Mateo County Transportation Authority Measure A 0.500 N/A YesSan Mateo County Transit District Measure W 0.500 2049 NoCaltrain Measure RR 0.013 2050 NoCity of San Mateo Measure S 0.250 2048 Yes 9.625 1.750 Remaining add on % capacity 0.25Total Sales Tax RateTotal add on sales tax subject to the 2% limit State law imposes a 2% limit for add-on sales taxes above the State base sales tax rate, which leaves 0.25% in remaining add-on sales tax capacity. The table below also provides a comparison of sales tax rates for municipalities in San Mateo County:
Table 4: Sales Tax Rate Comparison
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9.875%
• Belmont
• Daly City
• East Palo Alto
• Redwood City
• South San Francisco
9.625%
• Burlingame
• San Mateo
9.375%
• Atherton
• Brisbane
• Colma
• Foster City
• Half Moon Bay
• Hillsborough
• Menlo Park
• Millbrae
• Pacifica
• Portola Valley
• San Carlos
• Woodside
Based on the latest projections for Measure S from the City’s sales tax consultant, a successful new 1/4% cent transactions and use tax ballot measure would generate approximately $6.5 million to $7.0 million in additional revenues per fiscal year.
Budget Picture & Funding Needs
The City has taken significant steps to respond to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and implemented a fiscal sustainability plan to reduce expenditures. The City also received $19.27 million in one-time federal stimulus funds from the American Rescue Plan Act, the remainder of which was included in the current fiscal year budget.
As more fully described in the mid-year budget update on April 18, 2022, the City’s current 2021-22 fiscal year General Fund is expected to end with $160.2 million in revenues and $146.6 million in expenditures. While the City’s General Fund for the current fiscal year is expected to end with a surplus, the Long-term Financial Plan indicates the City will need to draw down on Rainy Day Reserves over the next 4 years. Over the next 10 years, the General Fund is projected to have enough resources to maintain core services at existing levels and for the Rainy Day Reserves to be restored to pre- pandemic levels by 2032.
Although the General Fund is expected to be able to maintain existing service levels, there are a number of capital improvements and priorities that will require significant additional resources. Below are preliminary estimates (not accounting for inflation) for several capital and priority projects that have been identified and for which there aren’t sufficient resources:
Recreation Facilities Strategic Plan – $90 million
Road maintenance to sufficiently fund paving program and prevent future failed streets – $1 to $2 million annually The following Council objectives will also require significant additional resources:
Marina Library structural issues
Meet the 100% trash reduction mandate
Implement a Green Fleet by 2030
Develop funding strategy for existing infrastructure plans Implement bicycle and pedestrian projects and programs that address safety and align with adopted City plans Questions for Council & Next Steps
Staff is seeking direction on whether to proceed with drafting a measure to be placed on the November 2022 ballot.
Should the Council wish to proceed, staff would return at a later date for formal action.
Questions for Council
Do you wish to place a revenue measure on the November 2022 ballot? If so, which option:
1) 1/4% sales tax increase
2) Change the existing RPTT to a tiered system with increases for either:
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a. Properties sold or transferred for over $2.5 million b. Properties sold or transferred for over $3 million
c. Evaluate a different tiered structure
BUDGET IMPACT:
Placing any measure on the ballot is expected to cost roughly $100,000, including the survey, related communications, and elections expenses.
If a 1/4% transactions and use tax were ultimately approved by the City Council and San Mateo voters, it would generate between $6.5 million to $7.0 million in additional General Fund revenue. If a RPTT tiered structure were ultimately approved, it would generate between $5.6 million to $6.8 million in additional General Fund revenue.
ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINATION:
This item is not a project subject to CEQA, because it can be seen with certainty that it will not cause a physical change in the environment. (Public Resources Code Section 21065.)
NOTICE PROVIDED
All meeting noticing requirements were met.
ATTACHMENTS
Att 1 - Voter Opinion Survey Report
STAFF CONTACT
Samantha Weigel, Communications Manager
[email protected]
(650) 522-7005
Rich Lee, Director, Finance
[email protected]
(650) 522-7102
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Table of Contents
iCity of San Mateo True North Research, Inc. © 2022
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T ABLE OF C ONTENTS
Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii List of Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Motivation for Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 testing Alternatives: Sales Tax & Real Property Transfer Tax. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Overview of Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Organization of Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Disclaimer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 About True North . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Just the Facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Importance of Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Projects & Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Negative Arguments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Importance of Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Question 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Initial Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Support by Measure Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Question 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Question 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Reasons for Not Supporting Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Questions 4/6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Projects & Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Question 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Service Ratings by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Positive Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Question 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Interim Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Question 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Question 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Support by Subgroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Question 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Negative Arguments by Initial Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Final Ballot Test . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Question 12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Question 13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Adjusted Real Property Transfer Tax Threshold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Question 14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Change in Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Fiscal Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Question 15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Background & Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Questionnaire Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 10 of 61
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Programming, Pre-Test & Translation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Sample. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Statistical Margin of Error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Recruiting & Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Rounding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Questionnaire & Toplines. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 11 of 61
List of Tables
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L IST OF T ABLES
Table 1 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Initia l Ballot Test: Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 2 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Initial Ballot Test: Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Table 3 Top Projects & Services by Position at Initia l Ballot Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 4 Top Positive Arguments by Position at Init ial Ballot Test: Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 5 Top Positive Arguments by Position at Initial Ballot Test: Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Table 6 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Inte rim Ballot Test: Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . 22 Table 7 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Interim Ballot Test: Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Table 8 Negative Arguments by Position at Initial Ballo t Test. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Table 9 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Final Ballot Test: Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Table 10 Demographic Breakdown of Support at Final Ballot Test: Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Table 11 Movement Between Initial & Final Ballot Test: Sales Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Table 12 Movement Between Initial & Final Ballot Test: Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . 30 Table 13 Demographics of Sample . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 12 of 61
List of Figures
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L IST OF F IGURES
Figure 1 Biggest Issue Facing City. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 2 Initial Ballot Test: Sales Tax & Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 3 Reasons for not Supporting Measure: Sales Tax & Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . 14 Figure 4 Projects & Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 5 Positive Arguments: Sales Tax. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 6 Positive Arguments: Real Property Transfer Ta x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Figure 7 Interim Ballot Test: Sales Tax & Real Property Transfer Tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 8 Negative Arguments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 9 Final Ballot Test: Sales Tax & Real Property Tr ansfer Tax. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Figure 10 Final Ballot Test if Only Applies to Properties Over $3 Million . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure 11 Fiscal Management Rating. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 12 Fiscal Management Rating by Age, Initial Ballot Test & Party . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 13 Maximum Margin of Error Due to Sampling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 13 of 61
Introduction
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I NTRODUCTION
Encompassing 15.9 square miles in the San Francisco Bay Area, the City of San Mateo was incor- porated in 1894 and is currently home to an estimated 105,661 residents. 1 One of only two charter cities in San Mateo County, the City is governed by a five-member City Council, while the City’s daily operations are managed by a dedicated team of employees that provide a full suite of services to residents and the local business community.
Over the past decade, the City of San Mateo’s revenues have not kept pace with the growing costs associated with providing municipal services and facilities. Although the City has been pro- active in responding to this challenge by redu cing costs where feasible and through effective financial management practices, the practical reality is that existing revenues simply do not sup- port the high quality services and facilities that residents have come to expect. The economic fallout of the pandemic’s arrival in 2020 served to deepen this disparity, with forecasts at the time anticipating a 90% reduction in the City’s transient occupancy tax (TOT) revenues, a 10% reduction in sales tax revenues, and an annual budget deficit of $7 million. Although the City’s Fiscal Sustainability Plan to reduce the cost of General Fund operations and one-time stimulus funds from the American Rescue Plan Act have the City on course to maintain existing service levels with a limited draw on the City’s Rainy Day Reserve over the next four years, this balance does not include funding for capital improvements and other projec ts of interest to residents and the City Council—such as improved road maintenance, maintenance of infrastructure, bicy- cle and pedestrian safety projects, and projects outlined in the Recreation Facilities Strategic Plan.
MOTIVATION FOR RESEARCH The primary purpose of this survey was to produce an unbiased, statistically reliable evaluation of voters' interest in supporting a local revenue mea- sure to help close the funding gap noted above. Additionally, should the City decide to move for- ward with a measure, the data can guide how best to structure a measure so it is consistent with the community's priorities and expressed needs. Specifically, the study was designed to:
• Gauge current support for enacting a local re venue measure to provide funding for general municipal services and facilities;
• Identify the types of services and projects that voters are most interested in funding, should the measure pass;
• Expose voters to arguments in favor of, an d against, the proposed measure to assess how information affects support for the measure; and
• Estimate support for the measure once voters are presented with the types of information they will likely be exposed to during an election cycle.
It is important to note at the outset that voters’ opinions about tax measures are often some- what fluid, especially when the amount of information they initially have about a measure is lim- ited. How voters think and feel about a measure today may not be the same way they think and feel once they have had a chance to hear more information about the measure during the elec- tion cycle. Accordingly, to accurately assess the feasibility of establishing a local revenue mea- sure to fund municipal services and facilities, it was important that in addition to measuring
1. United States Census 2020.
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Introduction
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current opinions about the measure, the survey expose respondents to the types of information voters are likely to encounter during an election cycle, including arguments in favor of (Question 8) and opposed to (Question 10) the measure, and gauge how this type of information ultimately impacts their voting decision.
TESTING ALTERNATIVES: SALES TAX & REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX One of the objectives of the study was to determin e how support for a local revenue measure may vary depending on the type of financial mechanism employed: sales tax or real property transfer tax. To reliably estimate support for both ty pes of measures, a split-sample methodology was employed such that a representative sample of 339 voters were administered a survey that focused on a sales tax, whereas a separate representative sample of 339 voters were asked ques- tions regarding a potential real property transfer tax. All respondents received generic questions that applied to both types of measures.
OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY For a full discussion of the research methods and tech- niques used in this study, turn to Methodology on page 33. In brief, the survey was administered to a random sample of 678 registered voters in the City of San Mateo who are likely to partici- pate in the November 2022 election, including a su bset of voters who are also likely to partici- pate in the lower turnout June 2022 primary election. The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (email, text, and telephone) and multiple data collection methods (telephone and online). Admini stered in English and Spanish between April 25 and May 1, 2022, the average interview lasted 17 minutes.
ORGANIZATION OF REPORT This report is designed to me et the needs of readers who prefer a summary of the findings as well as those who are interested in the details of the results.
For those who seek an overview of the findings, the sections titled Just the Facts and Conclusions are for you. They provide a summary of the most important factual findings of the survey in bul- let-point format and a discussion of their implications. For the interested reader, this section is followed by a more detailed question-by-question discussion of the resu lts from the survey by topic area (see Table of Contents), as well as a description of the methodology employed for col- lecting and analyzing the data. And, for the truly ambitious re ader, the questionnaire used for the interviews is contained at the back of this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 36) and a complete set of crosstabulations for the survey results is contained in Appendix A.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS True North thanks the City of San Mateo for the opportunity to assist the City in this important effort. The collective expertise, local knowledge, and insight pro- vided by City staff improved the overall quality of the research presented here.
DISCLAIMER The statements and conclu sions in this report are those of the authors (Dr. Timothy McLarney and Richard Sarles) at True North Research, Inc. and not necessarily those of the City of San Mateo. Any errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
ABOUT TRUE NORTH True North is a full-service survey research firm that is dedicated to providing public agencies with a clear understanding of the values, perceptions, priorities, and opinions of their residents and voters. Through designing and implementing scientific surveys, focus groups, and one-on-one interviews, as well as expert interpretation of the findings, True 15 of 61
Introduction
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North helps its clients to move with confidence when making strategic decisions in a variety of areas—such as planning, policy evaluation, performance management, establishing fiscal priori- ties, passing revenue measures, and developing effective public information campaigns.
During their careers, Dr. McLarney and Mr. Sarl es have designed and conducted over 1,200 sur- vey research studies for public agencies, includ ing more than 400 revenue measure feasibility studies. Of the measures that have gone to ballot based on Dr. McLarney’s recommendation, 95% have been successful. In total, the research that Dr. McLarney has conducted has led to over $34 billion in successful local revenue measures.
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Just the Facts
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J UST THE F ACTS
The following section is an outline of the main factual findings from the survey. For the reader’s convenience, we have organized th e findings according to the sect ion titles used in the body of this report. Thus, if you would like to learn more about a particular finding, simply turn to the appropriate report section.
IMPORTANCE OF ISSUES
• When asked in an open-ended ma nner to identify the most important issue facing San Mateo that they would like the City to address, 13% of respondents could not think of an important issue or indicated that there are currently no issues facing San Mateo—that everything is fine. Among those who mentioned a specific issue, the top responses were affordability of housing (25%), growth and development (21%), traffic congestion (16%), and crime/gangs/ drugs (11%).
INITIAL BALLOT TEST
• With only the information contained in the ballot statement, 59% of likely November 2022 voters indicated they would support a 1/4 cent sales tax to fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protection , paramedic, and 911 emergency response, police patrols and crime prevention, maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure, traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services. Approximately one- third of voters (32%) indicated they would oppose the sales tax, and 9% were unsure or unwilling to share their opinion.
• Although it would provide the sa me level of funding for the same types of general city ser- vices, initial support for the proposed real property transfer tax increase was considerably lower than that found for the sales tax. At the Initial Ballot Test, 51% of likely November 2022 voters stated that they would support the real property transfer tax, 41% were opposed, whereas 9% were unsure or unwilling to share their opinion. • Among those who were unsure or opposed to a measure at the Initial Ballot Test, the most common reasons for not supporting a measure we re the perception that taxes are already too high (46%), a concern that money has been or will be miss pent (28%), and a belief that the City already has enough money (12%) or that there are other ways municipal services can be funded (11%).
PROJECTS & SERVICES
• Of the services tested that could be funded by a general tax, voters prioritized using the funds to maintain parks, open spaces, and recr eation facilities including courts, fields and playgrounds (86% strongly or somewhat favor), maintain local streets and infrastructure (85%), provide quick responses to 911 emergenc ies (84%), provide fire protection and para- medic services (82%), and make improvements to roads, intersections, sidewalks, and bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets (82%). 17 of 61
Just the Facts
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POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
When presented with arguments in favor of the measures, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive:
• The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and make improvements to streets, sidewalks, st orm drains, and community facilities. The lon- ger we wait to make repairs and improvements, the more expensive it will be. • Fast emergency response times for 911 calls are critical for saving lives. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers , firefighters, dispatchers, and paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies.
• By keeping our city safe, clean, and well-maintained, this measure will help protect our prop- erty values and keep San Mateo a special place to live.
INTERIM BALLOT TEST
• After being presented with services that coul d be funded, as well as arguments in favor of the measure, overall support for the sales tax among likely November 2022 voters decreased slightly to 59%, with 32% of respondents opposed to the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 10% being unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. • After being presented with services that coul d be funded, as well as arguments in favor of the measure, support for the real property transfer tax among likely November 2022 voters ticked up to 55%, with 37% opposed and 8% unsure or unwilling to share their opinion.
NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
Of the arguments in opposition to the measures, voters found the following arguments to be the most persuasive:
• The City's latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing ser- vices at their current levels. We don't need to increase our taxes. • There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government can't be trusted with our tax dollars. • Local residents and businesses have been hit hard by the pandemic, inflation, and high gas prices. Many are struggling to stay afloat. Now is not the time to raise taxes.
FINAL BALLOT TEST
• After being presented with services that coul d be funded by the measure, as well as argu- ments in favor and against the measure, support for the sales tax was found among 54% of voters, with 36% opposed to the measure and 11% unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.
• After being presented with services that coul d be funded by the measure, as well as argu- ments in favor and against the measure, support for the real property transfer tax checked in at 49% at the Final Ballot Test, with 42% opposed to the measure and 9% unsure or unwill- ing to state their vote choice.
• Raising the sale/transfer amount threshold from $2,500,000 to $3,000,000 resulted in a 12% increase in suppo rt for the proposed real property transfer tax measure (61% total support), although most of the increase was soft support (probably yes). 18 of 61
Conclusions
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C ONCLUSIONS
The bulk of this report is devot ed to conveying the details of th e study findings. In this section, however, we attempt to ‘see the forest through the trees’ and note how the collective results of the survey answer the key questi ons that motivated the research . The following conclusions are based on True North’s interpretations of the survey results and the firm’s collective experience conducting revenue measure studies for public agencies throughout the State.
Is a revenue measure
feasible for the Novem-
ber 2022 ballot?
Voters value the services they receive from the City of San Mateo, although they see opportunities for the City to better address issues like housing affordability, traffic congestion, public safety, and maintenance of streets, infrastructure, parks, and public spaces. How these senti- ments translate into support for a local revenue measure to fund city ser- vices—and feasibility of the measure if placed on a future ballot— depends on the type of measure being considered.
Voters exhibited solid initial support for a 1/4 cent sales tax measure that would fund general services in San Mateo, such as fire protection, paramedic, and 911 emergency resp onse, police patrols and crime pre- vention, maintenance of streets, park s, open space, and infrastructure, traffic management, addressing home lessness, and other city services.
With just the information conveyed in the 75-word ballot statement, 59% of voters indicated they would support the sales tax. Although support for the measure waned somewhat in response to negative arguments, throughout the survey support remained at least 4 points above the sim- ple majority (50% +1) required for passage of a general sales tax.
The results of this survey indicate that a sales tax measure is feasible for the November 2022 ballot provided th at it is accompanied by robust community/opinion leader engage ment, education, and communication to raise awareness of the City’s service and facility challenges and build community consensus around a proposal (more on this below).
The survey results were less promising with respect to the feasibility of a real property transfer tax measure when applied to properties that sell or transfer for $2,500,000 or more. Although it woul d provide the same level of funding for the same types of general city services, initial sup- port for the proposed real property transfer tax increase (51%) was con- siderably lower than that found for th e sales tax, and just 1% above that required for passage of a general tax (50%+1). Support for the real prop- erty transfer tax also waned over the course of the survey in response to negative messaging, landing at 49% at the Final Ballot Test. That said, raising the sale/transfer amount threshold from $2,500,000 to $3,000,000 resulted in a 12% increase in support for the proposed mea- sure (61% total support) near the end of the interview, although most of the increase was soft support (probably yes).
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The feasibility of a real property transfer tax increase for the November ballot is contingent on a number of factors, including the sale/transfer threshold and the degree to which vo ters understand the particulars of the measure. To have a reasonable chance of passage, the tax should not apply to properties below $3,000,000 and community education/ engagement will be critical to avoid confusion about how the measure works and what it will help fund.
Which projects and ser-
vices do San Mateo vot-
ers view as priorities?
A general tax is “any tax imposed for general governmental purposes” 2 and is distinguished from a special tax in that the funds raised by a gen- eral tax are not earmarked for a spec ific purpose(s). Thus, a general tax provides a municipality with a great deal of flexibility with respect to what is funded by the measure on a year-to-year basis.
Although the San Mateo City Council would have the discretion to decide how to spend the revenues, the survey results indicate that voters are most interested in using the proceeds to fund public works and public safety. Specifically, voters most strongly favored using measure pro- ceeds to maintain parks, open spaces , and recreation facilities including courts, fields and playgrounds, maintain local streets and infrastructure, provide quick responses to 911 emergencies, provide fire protection and paramedic services, and make impro vements to roads, intersections, sidewalks, and bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets.
How might public infor-
mation/education affect
support for the pro-
posed measure?
As noted in the body of this report , individuals’ opinions about revenue measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of information presented to the public on a measure has been limited. Thus, in addition to measuring current support for a measure, one of the goals of this study was to explore how the introd uction of additional information about a measure may affect voters’ opinions about the proposal.
It is clear from the survey results that voters’ opinions about the pro- posed measures are somewhat sensitive to the nature, and amount, of information they have about the measure. Information about the specific services that could be funded by th e measure, as well as arguments in favor of the measure, were found by many voters to be compelling rea- sons to support the measure. However, voters also exhibited some sensi- tivity to opposition arguments, and there is a risk they could be swayed by divisive and hyper-partisan campaigning during the November elec- tion cycle. Accordingly, one of the keys to building and sustaining sup- port for a measure will be the presence of an effective, well-organized public outreach effort and a separate, independent campaign that focuses on the need for a measure as well as the many benefits that it will bring.
2. Section 1, Article XIIIC, California Constitution.
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How might changes to
the economic or politi-
cal climate alter support
for the measure?
A survey is a snapshot in time—which means the results of this study and the conclusions noted above mu st be viewed in light of the current economic and political climates. On the one hand, this should provide some reassurances to the City that a local revenue measure is feasible.
Even with concerns regarding the pa ndemic, inflation, high gas prices, and the trajectory of the economy, voters were generally supportive of the proposed sales tax measure on the natural.
On the other hand, the months leading up to the November 2022 elec- tion are likely to be punctuated with significant events on the public health, economic, and political fron ts. Exactly how these events unfold and may shape voters’ opinions remains to be seen. Should the economy and/or political climate improve, support for the measure could increase. Conversely, negative economic and/or political developments (including devolving into a hyper-pa rtisan environment), could dampen support for the measure below what was recorded in this study. 21 of 61
Importance of Issues
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I MPORTANCE OF I SSUES
The first substantive question of the survey aske d respondents to identify the biggest issue fac- ing San Mateo today that they would like the City to address. Question 2 was presented in an open-ended manner, allowing respondents the opportunity to mention any issue that came to mind without being prompted by or restricted to a particular list of issues. True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown in Figure 1.
Approximately 13% of respondents could not think of an important issue or indicated that there are currently no issues facing San Mateo—that everything is fine. Among those who mentioned a specific issue, the top responses were affordab ility of housing (25%), growth and development (21%), traffic congestion (16%), and crime/gangs/drugs (11%).3 Question 2 What would you say is the biggest issue facing San Mateo that you would like the City to address?
FIGURE 1 BIGGEST ISSUE FACING CITY
3. When compared to a similar study conducted for the City in 2020, the top three issues are the same in 2022, although the rank order is somewhat different with traffic congestion sliding from the top spot to third spot.
24.6 20.8
16.1 11.2
8.5 7.4
7.4 6.6
4.0 3.5
3.2 3.0
2.9 2.7
2.6 2.2
2.1 3.2
3.6 0 5 10 15 20 25
Affordability of housing
Growth, development
Traffic congestion
Crime, gangs, drugs
Not sure / Cannot think of anything
Parking
Infrastructure maintenance, repairs
Homelessness
No issues / Everything is fine
Downtown revitalization
City cleanliness, landscaping
Quality of education, schools
Improvement of future development, planning, zoning
Lack of variety of high-end restaurants, shops
Enforcement of traffic laws
Environmental issues
High taxes, fees
Lack of parks, rec centers, activities for all ages
High cost of living
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Initial Ballot Test
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I NITIAL B ALLOT T EST
As noted in the Introduction, the primary objective of this study was to estimate voter support for two potential ballot measures—a 1/4 cent sales tax to provide funding for general city ser- vices in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protection, paramedic, and 911 emergency response, police patrols and crime prevention , maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastruc- ture, traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services, and a real property transfer tax increase on properties that sell/transfer for more than $2,500,000 that would fund the same list of general city services. To this end, Questions 3 and 5 were designed to take an early assessment of support for the proposed measures.
The motivation for placing Questions 3 and 5 up-front in the survey is twofold. First, voter sup- port for a measure can often depend on the amou nt of information they have about a measure.
At this point in the survey, the respondent has not been provided information about the pro- posed measure beyond what is presented in the ballot language. This situation is analogous to a voter casting a ballot with limited knowledge about the measure, such as what might occur in the absence of an effective education campaign. Question 3 (and 5), also known as the Initial Bal- lot Test, is thus a good estimate of voter support for the proposed measure as it is today, on the natural. Because the Initial Ballot Test provides a gauge of natural support for a measure, it also serves a second purpose in that it provides a us eful baseline from which to judge the impact of various information items conveyed later in the survey on voter support for a measure.
SUPPORT BY MEASURE TYPE Figure 2 on the next page presents the results of the Initial Ballot Test for both the sales tax and real proper ty transfer tax measures. Overall, 59% of likely November 2022 voters indicated they would suppo rt a 1/4 cent sales tax to fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protection, param edic, and 911 emergency response, police patrols and crime prevention, maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure, traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services. Approxi- mately one-third of voters (32%) indicated they would oppose the sales tax, and 9% were unsure or unwilling to share their opinion. For general ta xes in California, the level of support recorded at the Initial Ballot Test for the sales tax measure is approximately 9 percentage points above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage.
Although it would provide the same level of fund ing for the same types of general city services, initial support for the proposed real property transfer tax increase was considerably lower than that found for the sales tax. At the Initial Ballot Test, 51% of likely November 2022 voters stated that they would support the real property tran sfer tax, 41% were opposed, whereas 9% were unsure or unwilling to share their opinion.
Question 3 Your household is within the City of San Mateo. Later this year , voters in the City may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. To provide funding for general city services in the Ci ty of San Mateo, such as fire protection, para- medic, and 911 emergency response; police patrols and crime prevention; maintenance of streets, parks, open space, an d infrastructure; traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services; shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 cent sales tax be adopted, provid- ing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until 23 of 61
Initial Ballot Test
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ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
Question 5 Your household is within the City of San Mateo. Later this year , voters in the City may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire pr otection; 911 emergency response; Crime prevention; and street mainte- nance; Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property tran sfer tax as follows: no increase for properties under 2.5 million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 million dollars to 5 mil- lion dollars, 1/2% for properties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general govern- ment use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 2 INITIAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX & REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS For the interested reader, Ta bles 1 and 2 on the following pages show how support at the Initial Ballot Test for the sales tax and real property transfer tax measures, respectively, varied by key demographic traits. The blue column (Approximate % of Universe) indicates the percentag e of the likely November 2022 voter universe that each sub- group category comprises. When compared with their respective counterparts, those who had lived in San Mateo between 10 and 14 years, rent ers, Democrats, likely June 2022 voters, and females were the most likely subgroups to support a local revenue measure—be it a sales tax or a real property transfer tax.
13.6 21.7 27.0
8.6 26.722.9
23.936.5
9.9 8.5
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
S ale s Tax Pro pe rty Transfe r Tax
Initial Ballot Test Version
% Respondents
Prefer not to
answer
Not sure
Definitely no
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely yes
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Initial Ballot Test
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TABLE 1 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes % Not sure
Overall 100.0 59.4 8.6
Less than 5 15.4 69.0 3.7
5 to 9 13.6 55.9 17.6
10 to14 12.0 75.2 4.8
15 or more 59.1 54.2 8.4
Yes 35.9 65.1 4.1
No 64.1 60.1 10.2
Yes 53.1 57.0 7.4
No 46.9 62.2 9.9
Excellent, good 44.0 70.4 5.0
Fair 35.9 58.3 8.1
Poor, very poor 20.1 33.6 3.3
Single dem 31.9 66.8 12.0
Dual dem 15.1 71.2 6.2
Single rep 6.5 47.0 0.0
Dual rep 4.0 27.3 23.5
Other 20.2 58.6 4.3
Mixed 22.4 52.0 8.4
18 to 29 9.4 59.1 5.4
30 to 39 15.5 55.7 21.7
40 to 49 20.2 74.5 3.8
50 to 64 27.3 51.1 10.8
65 or older 27.5 58.6 4.7
Since Nov '18 11.1 73.2 15.5
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 57.5 5.0
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 54.2 9.6
Before Jun '06 58.4 58.2 8.1
Democrat 55.3 68.7 9.4
Republican 15.2 37.0 6.9
Other / DTS 29.5 55.6 7.9
Yes 89.9 59.6 8.1
No 10.1 57.8 13.4
Yes 67.0 62.1 5.1
No 33.0 52.9 17.1
Yes, natural 95.0 59.3 8.3
Yes, GOTV 5.0 61.3 14.2
Male 47.3 56.8 6.2
Female 52.7 61.2 11.0Gender
Likely to Vote by Mail
Party
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Household Party Type
Age
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Registration Year
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
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Initial Ballot Test
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TABLE 2 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE Respondents who did not support the measures at the Initial Ballot Test were asked if there was a particular reason for their position.
Questions 4 and 6 were posed in an open-ended manner, allowing respondents to mention any reason that came to mind without being prompted by or restricted to a particular list of options.
True North later reviewed the verbatim responses and grouped them into the categories shown in Figure 3 on the next page.4
4. The distribution of reasons provided for not support ing the measure were similar for the sales tax and real property transfer tax, which allowed the responses to be combined into a single graphic.
Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes % Not sure
Overall 100.0 50.6 8.5
Less than 5 15.4 53.3 19.2
5 to 9 13.6 41.8 8.0
10 to14 12.0 68.7 6.7
15 or more 59.1 49.5 5.9
Yes 35.9 46.1 5.3
No 64.1 54.6 11.0
Yes 53.1 40.9 5.8
No 46.9 61.6 11.6
Excellent, good 44.0 72.7 8.9
Fair 35.9 46.5 8.9
Poor, very poor 20.1 20.2 8.9
Single dem 31.9 54.0 17.4
Dual dem 15.1 53.3 0.7
Single rep 6.5 19.0 15.8
Dual rep 4.0 23.3 0.0
Other 20.2 58.1 3.9
Mixed 22.4 49.6 3.9
18 to 29 9.4 56.2 0.0
30 to 39 15.5 45.9 13.9
40 to 49 20.2 45.5 5.1
50 to 64 27.3 56.8 5.6
65 or older 27.5 48.9 14.1
Since Nov '18 11.1 54.5 12.9
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 49.5 9.1
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 54.8 8.6
Before Jun '06 58.4 49.3 7.5
Democrat 55.3 56.7 11.6
Republican 15.2 30.1 8.1
Other / DTS 29.5 47.8 3.3
Yes 89.9 50.6 9.0
No 10.1 50.3 4.8
Yes 67.0 56.0 7.5
No 33.0 41.4 10.2
Yes, natural 95.0 50.9 8.4
Yes, GOTV 5.0 45.1 11.8
Male 47.3 45.5 6.7
Female 52.7 55.6 9.3Gender
Party
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
Household Party Type
Age
Registration Year
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
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Initial Ballot Test
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Overall, the most common reason for not supporting a revenue measure was the perception that taxes are already too high (46%), followed by a concern that money has been or will be misspent (28%), and a belief that the Ci ty already has enough money (12%) or that there are other ways municipal services can be funded (11%).
Questions 4/6 Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the measure I just described?
FIGURE 3 REASONS FOR NOT SUPPORTING MEASURE: SALES TAX & REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX
46.1 28.1
12.3 11.4
8.0 6.8
5.1 2.6
1.5 0.8
0.7 0.3
0.1 1.3
0.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Taxes, already too high
Money is misspent, mismanaged
City has enough money
Other ways to be funded
Need more information
Not sure / No particular reason
Do not trust City
Other higher priorities in community
Money will go to employee pensions, salaries
Not a homeowner, unsure of details
Mentioned past ballot measures
City is okay as-is, there are no issues
Tax should have a sunset
It will hurt small businesses
Measure too expensive
% Respondents Who Do Not Support Measure
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Projects & Services
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P ROJECTS & S ERVICES
The ballot language presented in Questions 3 and 5 indicated that the proposed measure would provide funding for general city services in the Ci ty of San Mateo such as fire protection, para- medic, and 911 emergency response, police patrols and crime prevention, maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructu re, traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services. The purpose of Question 7 was to provide respondents with a full range of services that may be funded by the proposed me asure, as well as identify which of these ser- vices voters most favored funding with the proceeds of the measure.
After reading each service, respondents were as ked if they would favor or oppose spending some of the money on that particular item a ssuming that the measure passed. Descriptions of the services tested, as well as voters’ responses, are shown in Figure 4 below. The order in which the services were presented to respondents was randomized to avoid a systematic position bias.
Question 7 The measure we've been discussing would provide funding for a variety of city ser- vices and projects. If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to:
_____, or do you not have an opinion?
FIGURE 4 PROJECTS & SERVICES
All services tested were favored by at least 60% of voters surveyed. That said, voters prioritized using funding from a measure to maintain parks, open spaces, and recreation facilities including courts, fields and playgrounds (86% strongly or somewhat favor), maintain local streets and infrastructure (85%), provide quick responses to 911 emergencies (84%), provide fire protection and paramedic services (82%), and make improvemen ts to roads, intersections, sidewalks, and bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets (82%).
53.8 56.9
55.4 51.2
55.2 50.8
40.5 46.3
33.1 32.5
32.3 28.5
28.1 31.0
26.9 26.7
36.4 25.7
34.7 27.9
0 1 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 1 0 0
Maintain parks, open spaces, and recreation facilities including courts, fields, and playgrounds
Maintain local streets and infrastructure
Prov ide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies
Provide fire protection and paramedic services
Make improvements to roads, intersections, sidewalks, bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets Provide police and crime prevention services
Keep public areas, buildings, and restrooms clean and free of graffiti
Address homelessness
Reduce stormwater pollution
M ake changes to reduce env ironmental impacts, such as installing EV charging stations, converting the City’s fleet to EVQ7eQ7dQ7bQ7aQ7gQ7cQ7fQ7hQ7i Q7j % Respondents
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
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Projects & Services
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SERVICE RATINGS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 3 presents the top five services (show- ing the percentage of respondents who strongly favor each) by position at the Initial Ballot Test.
Not surprisingly, individuals who initially oppos ed a measure were generally less likely to favor spending money on a given service when compar ed with supporters. Nevertheless, initial sup- porters, opponents, and the undecided did agree on three of the top five priorities for funding.
TABLE 3 TOP PROJECTS & SERVICES BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q3,5) Item Project or Improvement Summary
% Strongly
Favor
Q7d Maintain local streets and infrastructure 67
Q7g Make improvements to roads, intersections, sidewalks, bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets 66
Q7e Maintain parks, open spaces, and recreation facilities including courts, fields, and playgrounds 65
Q7b Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 64
Q7a Provide fire protection and paramedic services 61
Q7d Maintain local streets and infrastructure 44
Q7c Provide police and crime prevention services 44
Q7b Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 43
Q7g Make improvements to roads, intersections, sidewalks, bike lanes to better manage traffic congestion on city streets 41
Q7a Provide fire protection and paramedic services 37
Q7e Maintain parks, open spaces, and recreation facilities including courts, fields, and playgrounds 62
Q7b Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 56
Q7a Provide fire protection and paramedic services 52
Q7c Provide police and crime prevention services 49
Q7d Maintain local streets and infrastructure 48
Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n = 373)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 245)
Not Sure
(n = 58)
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Positive Arguments
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P OSITIVE A RGUMENTS
If the City chooses to place a measure on an up coming ballot, voters will be exposed to various arguments about the proposal in the ensuing months. Proponents of the measure will present arguments to try to persuade voters to support the measure, just as opponents may present arguments to achieve the opposite goal. For this study to be a reliable gauge of voter support for the proposed sales tax or real property transfer tax measure, it is important that the survey sim- ulate the type of discussion and debate that will occur prior to the vote taking place and identify how this information ultimately shapes voters’ opinions about the measure.
The objective of Question 8 was thus to present respondents with arguments in favor of the pro- posed measure and identify whether they felt the arguments were convincing reasons to support it. Arguments in opposition to the measure were also presented and are discussed later in this report (see Negative Arguments on page 24). Within each series, specific arguments were admin- istered in random order to avoid a systematic position bias. For the reader’s convenience, we show the results of arguments pr esented for the sales tax in Figure 5, and those for the real property transfer tax in Figure 6.
Question 8 What I'd like to do now is tell you what some people say about the measure we've been discussing. Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? FIGURE 5 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS: SALES TAX
Figure 5 presents the truncated positive arguments tested for the sales tax, as well as voters’ reactions to the arguments. The arguments are sorted from most convincing to least convincing based on the percentage of respondents who indicated that the argument was either a ‘very con-
31.9 30.3
26.2 27.7
24.7 20.3
21.7 16.6
36.9 36.8
37.4 34.1
32.2 36.0
29.9 34.4
0 1 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 1 0 0
Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make
improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State
There will be a clear system of accountability including annual independent audits to ensure that money is spent properly Measure will cost just 25 cents for every $100 purchased, food, medicine, many other essential items are excluded from the tax Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share
There are many projects, services residents have identified as priorities, but that don’t have a funding source; measure will provide funding to address these high priorities
Q8eQ8dQ8cQ8aQ8bQ8hQ8gQ8f
% Respondents: Sales Tax
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
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Positive Arguments
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vincing’ or ‘somewhat convincing’ reason to support the measure. Using this methodology, the most compelling positive arguments were: The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, and community facilities. The longer we wait to make repairs and improvements, the more expensive it will be (69% very or somewhat convincing), Fast emergency response times for 911 calls are critical for saving lives. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefight- ers, dispatchers, and par amedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies (67%), and By keeping our city safe, clean, and well-maintained, this measure will help protect our property values and keep San Mateo a special place to live (64%). Table 4 lists the top five most convincing positive arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited it as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test for the sales tax.
TABLE 4 TOP POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q3) Item Positive Argument Summary: Sales Tax
% Very
Convincing
Q8e Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be 44 Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
41 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 40
Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live 35
Q8b There will be a clear system of accountability including annual independent audits to ensure that money is spent properly 34
Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
14 Q8e Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be 12 Q8b There will be a clear system of accountability including annual independent audits to ensure that money is spent properly 10
Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live 9
Q8g Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share 9 Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live 29
Q8e Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be 22 Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
16 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 16
Q8g Substantial amount of money raised by sales tax will come from people who visit community, but don’t live here; measure will make sure they pay their fair share 16 Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n =201)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 107)
Not Sure
(n =29)
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Positive Arguments
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The most compelling arguments on behalf of the real property transfer tax (see Figure 6) were the same as for the sales tax, al beit in a somewhat different order: Fast emergency response times for 911 calls are critical for saving lives. This measure will ensure that we have enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, and paramedics to respond quickly to 911 emergencies (67% very or somewhat convincing), The funding raised by this measure will allow the City to keep up with basic repairs and make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, and com- munity facilities. The longer we wait to make repairs and improvements, the more expensive it will be (67%), and By keeping our city safe, clean, and well-maintained, this measure will help protect our property values and keep San Mateo a special place to live (61%). Table 5 on the next page lists the top five arguments on behalf of the real property transfer tax according to respon- dents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test.
FIGURE 6 POSITIVE ARGUMENTS: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX
33.1 32.9
28.8 27.8
24.1 27.4
23.4 27.9
17.0 34.3
33.8 32.4
33.0 30.3
26.5 29.4
23.5 30.7
0 1 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 1 0 0
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make
improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be
By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State
This is a one-time tax that is applied only when a property is sold or transferred
Only most expensive properties in City will be impacted by measure; based on properties sold in 2021, 90% of properties would not experience a tax increase
There will be a clear system of accountability including annual independent audits to ensure that money is spent properly Measure increases tax rate only for properties worth more than $2.5M; it does not apply to properties worth less than that amount There are many projects, services residents have identified as priorities, but that don’t have a funding source; measure will provide funding to address these high priorities
Q8dQ8eQ8cQ8aQ8iQ8jQ8bQ8kQ8f
% Respondents: Real Property Transfer Tax
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
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Positive Arguments
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TABLE 5 TOP POSITIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5) Item Positive Argument Summary: Real Property Transfer Tax % Very
Convincing
Q8e Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be 54 Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
50 Q8j Only most expensive properties in City will be impacted by measure; based on properties sold in 2021, 90% of properties would not experience a tax increase 45 Q8k Measure increases tax rate only for properties worth more than $2.5M; it does not apply to properties worth less than that amount 44
Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 43
Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
14 Q8e Measure will allow City to keep up with repairs, make improvements to streets, sidewalks, storm drains, facilities; the longer we wait, the more expensive it will be 10 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 10
Q8k Measure increases tax rate only for properties worth more than $2.5M; it does not apply to properties worth less than that amount 10
Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live 9
Q8c By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect property values, keep San Mateo a special place to live 39
Q8d
Fast response for 9-1-1 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, dispatchers, paramedics to respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies
27 Q8a All money raised by measure will be used to fund essential services, facilities here in San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by State 23
Q8b There will be a clear system of accountability including annual independent audits to ensure that money is spent properly 22
Q8j Only most expensive properties in City will be impacted by measure; based on properties sold in 2021, 90% of properties would not experience a tax increase 22 Probably or
Definitely Yes
(n =172)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 137)
Not Sure
(n =29)
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Interim Ballot Test
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I NTERIM B ALLOT T EST
After informing respondents about the projects and services that could be funded by a measure, as well as exposing them to positive arguments they may encounter during the election cycle, the survey again presented voters with the ballot language used previously to gauge how their support for the proposed local sales tax and real property transfer tax measure may have changed.
Question 9 Sometimes people change their minds about a measure once they have more infor- mation about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it again. To provide funding for general ci ty services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protection, paramedic, and 911 emergency response; police patrols and crime prevention; maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure; traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services; shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled? If the elec- tion were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Question 10 Sometimes people change their minds about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again. To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protec- tion; 911 emergency response; Crime prevention; and street maintenance; Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property transfer ta x as follows: no increase for properties under
2.5 million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 million dollars to 5 million dollars, 1/2% for proper- ties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, provid- ing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 7 INTERIM BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX & REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX
15.3 19.9 21.5
8.9 25.2 27.0
33.3 28.4
11.7 6.9
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
S ale s Tax Pro pe rty Transfe r Tax
Interim Ballot Test Version
% Respondents
Prefer not to
answer
Not sure
Definitely no
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely yes
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Interim Ballot Test
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As shown in Figure 7 on the previous page, overall support for the sales tax measure among likely November 2022 voters decreased slightly to 59%, with 32% of respondents opposed to the measure at this point in the survey, and an additional 10% being unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Meanwhile, support for the real property transfer tax ticked up to 55%, with 37% opposed and 8% unsure or unwilling to share their opinion.
SUPPORT BY SUBGROUPS For the interested reader, Tables 6 and 7 display how support for the sales tax and real property transfer tax measures at this point in the survey varied by key demographic subgroups, as well as the percentage change in subgroup support when compared to the Initial Ballot Test. Positive differences appear in green, whereas negative differences appear in red.
TABLE 6 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INTERIM BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q3)
Overall 100.0 58.5 -1.0
Less than 5 15.4 68.6 -0.4
5 to 9 13.6 55.3 -0.6
10 to14 12.0 68.1 -7.1
15 or more 59.1 54.5 +0.3
Yes 35.9 66.3 +1.2
No 64.1 59.8 -0.3
Yes 53.1 54.4 -2.6
No 46.9 63.1 +0.8
Excellent, good 44.0 71.6 +1.2
Fair 35.9 55.8 -2.5
Poor, very poor 20.1 33.3 -0.3
Single dem 31.9 69.1 +2.3
Dual dem 15.1 73.9 +2.6
Single rep 6.5 34.1 -12.9
Dual rep 4.0 27.3 No change
Other 20.2 56.6 -1.9
Mixed 22.4 48.2 -3.8
18 to 29 9.4 54.2 -4.9
30 to 39 15.5 55.5 -0.2
40 to 49 20.2 70.7 -3.8
50 to 64 27.3 52.9 +1.7
65 or older 27.5 57.9 -0.7
Since Nov '18 11.1 69.4 -3.8
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 58.0 +0.5
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 63.0 +8.8
Before Jun '06 58.4 55.8 -2.3
Democrat 55.3 69.3 +0.6
Republican 15.2 31.9 -5.0
Other / DTS 29.5 54.0 -1.6
Yes 89.9 59.2 -0.4
No 10.1 51.2 -6.6
Yes 67.0 61.5 -0.7
No 33.0 51.1 -1.8
Yes, natural 95.0 57.9 -1.5
Yes, GOTV 5.0 69.7 +8.4
Male 47.3 54.7 -2.1
Female 52.7 62.2 +1.0
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Gender
Household Party Type
Age
Registration Year
Party
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
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TABLE 7 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT INTERIM BALLOT TEST: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5)
Overall 100.0 55.4 +4.8
Less than 5 15.4 62.7 +9.4
5 to 9 13.6 53.4 +11.6
10 to14 12.0 58.1 -10.6
15 or more 59.1 53.6 +4.1
Yes 35.9 48.1 +2.0
No 64.1 61.4 +6.7
Yes 53.1 45.5 +4.7
No 46.9 66.5 +4.9
Excellent, good 44.0 80.0 +7.2
Fair 35.9 51.6 +5.0
Poor, very poor 20.1 17.2 -3.1
Single dem 31.9 65.1 +11.1
Dual dem 15.1 57.6 +4.3
Single rep 6.5 28.0 +9.0
Dual rep 4.0 16.7 -6.6
Other 20.2 60.1 +2.1
Mixed 22.4 48.2 -1.3
18 to 29 9.4 63.4 +7.2
30 to 39 15.5 61.1 +15.2
40 to 49 20.2 48.9 +3.5
50 to 64 27.3 53.3 -3.5
65 or older 27.5 55.7 +6.8
Since Nov '18 11.1 60.4 +5.9
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 56.6 +7.1
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 60.5 +5.7
Before Jun '06 58.4 52.8 +3.5
Democrat 55.3 64.4 +7.7
Republican 15.2 31.1 +1.0
Other / DTS 29.5 49.0 +1.2
Yes 89.9 56.7 +6.1
No 10.1 44.7 -5.6
Yes 67.0 58.7 +2.7
No 33.0 49.7 +8.3
Yes, natural 95.0 56.0 +5.1
Yes, GOTV 5.0 43.5 -1.6
Male 47.3 52.1 +6.6
Female 52.7 59.3 +3.7
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Gender
Household Party Type
Age
Registration Year
Party
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
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Negative Arguments
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N EGATIVE A RGUMENTS
Whereas Question 8 presented respondents with arguments in favor of the measures, Question 11 presented respondents with arguments designed to elicit opposition to the measures. In the case of Question 11, however, respondents were asked whether they felt that the argument was a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to oppose the measure.
The arguments tested, as well as voters’ opinions about the arguments, are presented in Figure 8 for both measures.
Question 11 Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure say. Opponents of the mea- sure say: _____. Do you think this is a very co nvincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all con- vincing reason to OPPOSE the measure?
FIGURE 8 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
The most compelling negative arguments were: The City's latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing services at their current levels. We don't need to increase our taxes (70% very or somewhat convincing), There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means the City can divert the money to pet projects. The City government can't be trusted wi th our tax dollars (69%), and Local residents and businesses have been hit hard by the pandemic, inflation, and high gas pr ices. Many are struggling to stay afloat. Now is not the time to raise taxes (68%).
NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY INITIAL SUPPORT Table 8 on the next page ranks the negative arguments (showing the percentage of respondents who cited each as very convincing) according to respondents’ vote choice at the Initial Ballot Test.
37.5 38.7
40.9 36.8
36.8 32.3
30.1 27.3
30.7 28.5
0 1 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0 1 0 0
City’s latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing services at their current levels; we don’t need to increase taxes
There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects; City
government can’t be trusted with tax dollars
Local residents, businesses hav e been hit hard by pandemic, inflation, high gas prices; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes
Area is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing measure will make it even less affordable
This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date Q11eQ11cQ11aQ11dQ11b
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
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Negative Arguments
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TABLE 8 NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS BY POSITION AT INITIAL BALLOT TEST Position at
Initial Ballot
Test (Q3,5) Item Ne gative Argument Summary
% Very
Convincing
Q11a Local residents, businesses have been hit hard by pandemic, inflation, high gas prices; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 28 Q11c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 25 Q11b This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 25 Q11e City’s latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing services at their current levels; we don’t need to increase taxes 24 Q11d
Area is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixe 22 Q11e City’s latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing services at their current levels; we don’t need to increase taxes 61 Q11a Local residents, businesses have been hit hard by pandemic, inflation, high gas prices; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 60 Q11c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 59 Q11d Area is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing measure will make it even less affordable 59 Q11b This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 57 Q11a Local residents, businesses have been hit hard by pandemic, inflation, high gas prices; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes 44 Q11d Area is an expensive place to live, especially for young families, seniors, those on fixed incomes; passing measure will make it even less affordable 41 Q11c There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects; City government can’t be trusted with tax dollars 41 Q11b This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date 29 Q11e City’s latest budget estimate shows that it has enough money to continue providing services at their current levels; we don’t need to increase taxes 23 Not Sure
(n = 58)
Probably or
Definitely No
(n = 245)
Probably or
Definitely
Yes
(n = 373)
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Final Ballot Test
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F INAL B ALLOT T EST
Voters’ opinions about ballot measures are often not rigid, especially when the amount of infor- mation presented to the public on a measure ha s been limited. An important goal of the survey was thus to gauge how voters’ opinions about the proposed measures may be affected by the information they could encounter during the course of an election cycle. After providing respon- dents with the wording of the proposed measures, projects and services that could be funded by the measures, as well as arguments in favor and against the proposals, respondents were again asked whether they would vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the proposed sales tax and real property transfer tax measures.
Question 12 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it one more time. To provide funding for general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire protection, paramedic, and 911 emergency response; police patrols and crime pre- vention; maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure; traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services; shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Question 13 Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a sum- mary of it one more time. To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as fire pro- tection; 911 emergency response; Crime prevention; and street maintenance; Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property transfer tax as follows: no increase for properties under
2.5 million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 million dollars to 5 million dollars, 1/2% for proper- ties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, provid- ing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 9 FINAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX & REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX
17.3 22.8 24.8
9.7 21.619.6
27.333.9
13.1 7.7
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
S ale s Tax Pro pe rty Transfe r Tax
Final Ballot Test Version
% Respondents
Prefer not to
answer
Not sure
Definitely no
Probably no
Probably yes
Definitely yes
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Final Ballot Test
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At this point in the survey, support for the sa les tax measure was found among 54% of voters, with 36% opposed to the measure and 11% unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice. Support for the real property transfer tax checked in at 49% at the Final Ballot Test, with 42% opposed to the measure and 9% unsure or unwilling to state their vote choice.
ADJUSTED REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX THRESHOLD Up to this point in the survey, respondents who received the real property transfer tax measure were asked their opin- ion about increasing the tax for properties that sold or transferred for $2,500,000 or more.
Respondents who were opposed to the measure (o r unsure) at the Final Ballot Test were subse- quently asked whether they would support the meas ure if the tax increase only applied to prop- erties worth more than $3,000,000. As shown in Figure 10, raising the sale/transfer amount threshold to $3,000,000 resulted in a 12% increase in support for the proposed measure (61% total support), although most of the increase was soft support (probably yes).
Question 14 What if the real property transfer tax increase only applied to properties worth more than 3 million dollars? In other words, if your property is worth less than 3 million dollars, there is no tax impact from this measure. Knowing this, if the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
FIGURE 10 FINAL BALLOT TEST IF ONLY APPLIES TO PROPERTIES OVER $3 MILLION Prefer not to
answer
1.6 Not sure
5.3 Definitely no
20.6 Probably no
11.9 Probably yes
7.2 Definitely yes
4.5 Def, prob yes at
Q13
48.9 40 of 61
Change in Support
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C HANGE IN S UPPORT
Tables 9 and 10 provide a closer look at how support for the proposed sales tax and real prop- erty transfer tax measures changed over the course of the interview by calculating the difference in support between the Initial, Interim, and Final Ballot Tests within various subgroups of voters.
The percentage of support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test is shown in the column with the heading % Probably or Definitely Yes. The columns to the right show the difference between the Final and the Initial, and the Final and Inte rim Ballot Tests. Positive differences appear in green, negative differences in red.
TABLE 9 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT FINAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX As expected, most groups responded to the nega tive arguments with a reduction in their sup- port for the sales tax and real property transf er tax measures when compared with the levels recorded at the Interim Ballot Test. For the sales tax, the general trend over the course of the entire survey (Initial to Final Ballot Test) was also negative, averaging -6 percentage points. Even Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q3)
Change From
Interim Ballot
Test (Q9)
Overall 100.0 53.5 -6.0 -5.0
Less than 5 15.4 65.0 -4.0 -3.6
5 to 9 13.6 53.7 -2.2 -1.6
10 to14 12.0 59.7 -15.4 -8.4
15 or more 59.1 49.2 -5.0 -5.3
Yes 35.9 57.2 -7.9 -9.1
No 64.1 56.1 -4.0 -3.7
Yes 53.1 51.3 -5.7 -3.1
No 46.9 55.9 -6.3 -7.2
Excellent, good 44.0 65.8 -4.6 -5.9
Fair 35.9 54.1 -4.2 -1.7
Poor, very poor 20.1 24.2 -9.4 -9.1
Single dem 31.9 66.7 -0.1 -2.4
Dual dem 15.1 63.5 -7.7 -10.3
Single rep 6.5 31.3 -15.6 -2.8
Dual rep 4.0 17.8 -9.5 -9.5
Other 20.2 48.5 -10.0 -8.1
Mixed 22.4 46.1 -6.0 -2.1
18 to 29 9.4 60.6 +1.5 +6.4
30 to 39 15.5 45.1 -10.6 -10.4
40 to 49 20.2 64.0 -10.5 -6.7
50 to 64 27.3 46.9 -4.3 -6.0
65 or older 27.5 53.9 -4.7 -4.0
Since Nov '18 11.1 68.8 -4.4 -0.6
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 54.2 -3.3 -3.8
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 43 .5 -10.7 -19.5
Before Jun '06 58.4 51.7 -6.4 -4.1
Democrat 55.3 66.3 -2.3 -3.0
Republican 15.2 28.1 -8.9 -3.8
Other / DTS 29.5 44.0 -11.6 -10.0
Yes 89.9 54.5 -5.1 -4.7
No 10.1 42.4 -15.4 -8.8
Yes 67.0 55.7 -6.4 -5.7
No 33.0 47.8 -5.1 -3.3
Yes, natural 95.0 53.1 -6.3 -4.8
Yes, GOTV 5.0 60.6 -0.7 -9.1
Male 47.3 49.3 -7.5 -5.4
Female 52.7 57.3 -3.9 -4.9
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
Household Party Type
Age
Registration Year
Party
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Gender
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Change in Support
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with this decline, however, support for the sales tax at the Final Ballot Test (54%) remained above the simply majority (50%+1) threshold required for passage.
Support for the real property transfer tax was more resilient, with support declining less than 2% between the Initial and Final Ballot Test. Nevertheless, with lower levels of support in general for the real property transfer tax, support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test (49%) was slightly below the simple majority threshold required for passage.
TABLE 10 DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF SUPPORT AT FINAL BALLOT TEST: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX Whereas tables 9 and 10 display change in support for the measures over the course of the inter- view at the subgroup level, tables 11 and 12 display the individual-level changes that occurred between the Initial and Final Ballot Tests for the respective measures. On the left side of the tables is shown each of the response options to the Initial Ballot Test and the percentage of respondents in each group. The cells in the bo dy of the tables depict movement within each response group (row) based on the information provided throughout the course of the survey as Approximate %
of Voter
Universe
% Probably or
Definitely Yes
Change From
Initial Ballot
Test (Q5)
Change From
Interim Ballot
Test (Q10)
Overall 100.0 48.9 -1.7 -6.4
Less than 5 15.4 55.7 +2.4 -7.0
5 to 9 13.6 45.6 +3.8 -7.8
10 to14 12.0 63.0 -5.6 +4.9
15 or more 59.1 45.9 -3.6 -7.6
Yes 35.9 40.3 -5.8 -7.8
No 64.1 55.3 +0.7 -6.0
Yes 53.1 39.5 -1.3 -6.0
No 46.9 59.5 -2.0 -7.0
Excellent, good 44.0 74.1 +1.3 -5.9
Fair 35.9 47.7 +1.2 -3.8
Poor, very poor 20.1 14.3 -5.9 -2.9
Single dem 31.9 59.4 +5.4 -5.7
Dual dem 15.1 48.2 -5.1 -9.4
Single rep 6.5 28.0 +9.0 No change
Dual rep 4.0 16.7 -6.6 No change
Other 20.2 52.9 -5.2 -7.2
Mixed 22.4 40.4 -9.1 -7.8
18 to 29 9.4 54.5 -1.7 -8.9
30 to 39 15.5 49.4 +3.5 -11.7
40 to 49 20.2 43.8 -1.7 -5.2
50 to 64 27.3 46.2 -10.6 -7.1
65 or older 27.5 53.5 +4.6 -2.1
Since Nov '18 11.1 51.5 -3.0 -8.9
Jun '12 to <Nov '18 19.8 58.7 +9.1 +2.0
Jun '06 to <Jun '12 10.8 45.9 -9.0 -14.7
Before Jun '06 58.4 45.4 -3.9 -7.4
Democrat 55.3 56.7 -0.0 -7.7
Republican 15.2 31.1 +1.0 No change
Other / DTS 29.5 42.3 -5.5 -6.7
Yes 89.9 49.7 -0.9 -7.1
No 10.1 43.1 -7.2 -1.6
Yes 67.0 51.9 -4.1 -6.8
No 33.0 44.0 +2.5 -5.8
Yes, natural 95.0 49.4 -1.4 -6.6
Yes, GOTV 5.0 39.4 -5.7 -4.1
Male 47.3 43.4 -2.1 -8.7
Female 52.7 55.2 -0.4 -4.1
Likely to Vote by Mail
Likely Jun 2022 Voter
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Gender
Household Party Type
Age
Registration Year
Party
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Homeowner on Voter File
Fiscal Management
Rating (Q15)
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Change in Support
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recorded by the Final Ballot Test. For example, in the first row of Table 11 we see that of the
22.9% of respondents who indicated that they wo uld definitely support the sales tax measure at the Initial Ballot Test, 15.9% also indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Final Ballot Test. Approximately 5.5% moved to th e probably support group, 0.6% moved to the probably oppose group, 0.2% moved to the defi nitely oppose group, and 0.7% percent stated they were now unsure of their vote choice.
To ease interpretation of the tables, the cells are color coded. Red shaded cells indicate declining support, green shaded cells indicate increasing support, whereas white cells indicate no move- ment. Moreover, within the cells, a white font indicates a fundamental change in the vote: from yes to no, no to yes, or not sure to either yes or no.
TABLE 11 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TEST: SALES TAX TABLE 12 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TEST: REAL PROPERTY TRANSFER TAX As one might expect, the information conveyed in the survey had the greatest impact on individ- uals who either weren’t sure about how they would vote at the Initial Ballot Test or were tentative in their vote choice (probably yes or probably no). Moreover, tables 11 and 12 make clear that although the information did impact some voters, it did not do so in a consistent way for all respondents. Some respondents found the informat ion conveyed during the course of the inter- view to be a reason to become more supportive of the measure, whereas others found the same information to be a reason to be less supportive.
Despite 16% of respondents making a fundamental5 shift in their opinion about the sales tax measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the sales tax mea- sure at the Final Ballot Test was approximately 6 percentage points lower than support at the Ini- tial Ballot Test. Similarly, although 20% of respondents made a fundamental shift in their opinion about the real property transfer tax measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test was just 2 percentage points lower than sup- port at the Initial Ballot Test.
5. That is, they changed from a position of support, opposition or undecided at the Initial Ballot Test to a differ- ent position at the Final Ballot Test.
Definitely
support
Probably
support
Probably
oppose
Definitely
oppose Not sure
Definitely support 22.9% 15.9% 5.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7%
Probably support 36.5% 3.6% 26.0% 2.8% 0.0% 4.1%
Probably oppose 9.9% 0.0% 1.1% 5.2% 2.9% 0.7%
Definitely oppose 21.7% 0.0% 0.1% 2.7% 18.1% 0.7%
Not sure 9.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.6% 4.3%
Initial Ballot Test (Q3)
Final Ballot Test (Q12)
Definitely
support
Probably
support
Probably
oppose
Definitely
oppose Not sure
Definitely support 26.7% 18.9% 5.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Probably support 23.9% 1.8% 16.4% 2.6% 0.3% 2.7%
Probably oppose 13.6% 0.2% 1.3% 8.2% 1.8% 2.1%
Definitely oppose 27.0% 0.5% 0.0% 4.0% 20.9% 1.7%
Not sure 8.9% 0.3% 3.8% 1.7% 0.9% 2.2%
Initial Ballot Test (Q5)
Final Ballot Test (Q13)
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Fiscal Management
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F ISCAL M ANAGEMENT
Near the end of the survey, respondents were as ked to rate the job the City of San Mateo has done in managing its financial resources. The vast majority of voters gave the City a positive or neutral mark, with 7% rating the City’s performance as excellent, 29% good, and 29% fair.
Approximately 16% rated the job the City has done in managing its finances as poor or very poor, while 20% confided they were not sure or preferred to not answer the question (Figure 11).
For the interested reader, Figure 12 shows how ratings of the City’s performance in managing its finances varied across key voter subgroups.
Question 15 In your opinion, has the City of San Mateo done an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job of managing its financial resources?
FIGURE 11 FISCAL MANAGEMENT RATING
FIGURE 12 FISCAL MANAGEMENT RATING BY AGE, INITIAL BALLOT TEST & PARTY Prefer not to
answer
1.1Not sure
18.7 Very poor
5.0 Poor
11.1 Fair
28.8 Good
28.5 Excellent
6.8 10.4 13.8
1.5 2.2
12.0 1.2 5.9
47.2 42.6
24.0 39.8
42.2 26.5
28.4 Excellent
8.8 7.3 7.0 7.8
Good
25.3 30.933.729.6
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 or older Def, prob yes
Def, prob
no
Not sure Democrat Republican Other / DTS
Age Initial Ballot Test Party
% Respondents Who Provided Opinion
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Background & Demographics
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B ACKGROUND & D EMOGRAPHICS
TABLE 13 DEMOGRAPHICS OF SAMPLE
In addition to questions dire ctly related to the proposed measure, the study collected basic demographic information about respondents and their households. Some of this infor- mation was gathered during the interview, although much of it was collected from the voter file. The profile of the likely November 2022 voter sample used for this study is shown in Table 13.
Total Respondents 678
Years in San Mateo (Q1)
Less than 5 15.3
5 to 9 13.5
10 to14 11.9
15 or more 58.9
Prefer not to answer 0.4
Fiscal Management Rating (Q15)
Excellent, good 35.3
Fair 28.8
Poor, very poor 16.1
DK/NA 19.8
Child in Hsld (Q16)
Yes 34.0
No 60.7
Prefer not to answer 5.3
Gender
Male 45.7
Female 50.8
Prefer not to answer 3.5
Age
18 to 29 9.4
30 to 39 15.5
40 to 49 20.2
50 to 64 27.3
65 or older 27.5
Party
Democrat 55.3
Republican 15.2
Other / DTS 29.5
Homeowner on Voter File
Yes 53.1
No 46.9
Registration Year
Since Nov 16 11.1
Jun 10 to <Nov 16 19.8
Jun 04 to <Jun 10 10.8
Before June 04 58.4
Household Party Type
Single dem 31.9
Dual dem 15.1
Single rep 6.5
Dual rep 4.0
Other 20.2
Mixed 22.4
Likely to Vote by Mail
Yes 67.0
No 33.0
Likely Nov 2022 Voter
Yes, natural 95.0
Yes, GOTV 5.0
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Methodology
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M ETHODOLOGY
The following sections outline the methodology used in the study, as well as the motivation for using certain techniques.
QUESTIONNAIRE DEVELOPMENT Dr. McLarney of True North Research worked closely with the City of San Mateo to develop a questionnaire that covered the topics of interest and avoided possible sources of system atic measurement error, incl uding position-order effects, wording effects, response-category effects, sc aling effects, and priming. Several questions included multiple individual items. Because asking items in a set order can lead to a systematic position bias in responses, items were asked in random order for each respondent.
Some of the questions asked in this study were presented only to a subset of respondents. For example, only individuals who di d not support the sales tax or were unsure at the Initial Ballot Test (Question 3) were asked if there was a particular reason they did not support or were unsure about the measure (Question 4). The question naire included with this report (see Questionnaire & Toplines on page 36) identifies the skip patterns that were used during the interview to ensure that each respondent received the appropriate questions.
PROGRAMMING, PRE-TEST & TRANSLATION Prior to fielding the survey, the ques- tionnaire was CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) programmed to assist interview- ers when conducting telephone interviews. Th e CATI program automatically navigates skip patterns, randomizes the appropriate question item s, and alerts the interviewer to certain types of keypunching mistakes should they occur. The survey was also pr ogrammed into a passcode- protected online survey application to allow online participation for sampled voters. The integ- rity of the questionnaire was pre-tested internally by True North and by dialing into voter house- holds in the City prior to formally beginning the survey. Once finalized, the questionnaire was professionally translated into Spanish to allow for data collection in English and Spanish.
SAMPLE The survey was administered to a stratified and clustered random sample of regis- tered voters in the City of San Mateo who are likely to participate in the November 2022 election, with a subset who are also likely to participat e in the lower turnout June 2022 primary election.
Consistent with the profile of this universe, the sample was stratified into clusters, each repre- senting a combination of age, gender, and household party type. Individuals were then randomly selected based on their profile into an appropriate cluster. This method ensures that if a person of a particular profile refuses to participate in th e study, they are replaced by an individual who shares their same profile.
To reliably estimate support for a sales tax measur e as well as a real prop erty transfer tax mea- sure, a split-sample methodology was employed su ch that 339 voters were administered a sur- vey that focused on a sales tax, whereas a separate 339 voters were asked questions regarding a real property transfer tax measure. All respon dents received generic questions that applied to both types of measures.
The split-sample approach is used because it is the most reliable method of estimating voter support for alternative ta x measures. Prior research (and actu al election results) have consis- tently shown that attempting to estimate support for multiple tax measures (e.g., sales tax and 46 of 61
Methodology
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real property transfer tax) with the same respondent during the course of an interview will lead to an artificially low estimate of support for whichever measure is introduced second—and it also has a tendency to cause confusion. To avoid these sources of measurement error, it is important that each respondent be asked their opinions regarding one of the alternatives, not both.
STATISTICAL MARGIN OF ERROR By using the probability-based sampling design noted above, True North ensured that the final sa mple was representative of voters in the City who are likely to participate in the November 2022 election. The results of the sample can thus be used to estimate the opinions of all voters likely to participat e in the November 2022 elec- tion. Because not all voters participated in the survey, however, the results have what is known as a statistical margin of error due to sampling. The margin of error refers to the difference between what was found in the survey of 678 vote rs for a particular question and what would have been found if all estimat ed 42,956 likely November 2022 voters in the City had been sur- veyed.
Figure 13 provides a graphic plot of the maximum margin of error in this study. The maximum margin of error for a dichotomous percentage re sult occurs when the answers are evenly split such that 50% provide one response and 50% prov ide the alternative response. For this survey, the maximum margin of error is ± 3.7% for questions answered by all 678 respondents, ± 5.3% for questions specific to a particular measure (sales tax or real property transfer tax).
FIGURE 13 MAXIMUM MARGIN OF ERROR DUE TO SAMPLING
Within this report, figures and tables show ho w responses to certain questions varied by sub- groups such as age, gender, and partisan affilia tion. Figure 13 is thus useful for understanding how the maximum margin of error for a percentage estimate will grow as the number of individ- uals asked a question (or in a particular subgro up) shrinks. Because the margin of error grows 678 Overall
± 3.7%
339 per Measure
± 5.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Sample Size (Number of Respondents)
Margin of Error
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Methodology
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exponentially as the sample size decreases, the reader should use caution when generalizing and interpreting the results for small subgroups.
RECRUITING & DATA COLLECTION The survey followed a mixed-method design that employed multiple recruiting methods (email, text, and telephone) and multiple data collection methods (telephone and online). Te lephone interviews averaged 17 minutes in length and were conducted during weekday evenings (5:30PM to 9PM) and on weekends (10AM to 5PM). It is stan- dard practice not to call during the day on we ekdays because most working adults are unavail- able and thus calling during those hours would likely bias the sample.
Voters recruited via email and text were assigned a unique passcode to ensure that only voters who received an invitation could access the online survey site, and that each voter could com- plete the survey only one time. During the data collection period, an email reminder notice was also sent to encourage participation among those who had yet to take the survey. A total of 678 surveys were completed in English and Spanish between April 25 and May 1, 2022.
DATA PROCESSING Data processing consisted of checking the data for errors or inconsis- tencies, coding and recoding responses, weighting, and preparing frequency analyses and cross- tabulations.
ROUNDING Numbers that end in 0.5 or higher are rounded up to the nearest whole num- ber, whereas numbers that end in 0.4 or lower are rounded down to the nearest whole number.
These same rounding rules are also applied, when needed, to arrive at numbers that include a decimal place in constructing figures and tables. Occasionally, these rounding rules lead to small discrepancies in the first decimal place when comparing tables and charts for a given question. 48 of 61
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City of San Mateo
Sales & Real Property Transfer Tax Survey
Final Toplines (n=678)
May 2022
Section 1: Introduction to Study
Hi, may I please speak to _____. My name is _____, and I’m calling on behalf of TNR, an independent public opinion research firm. We’re conducting a survey of voters about important issues in the City of San Mateo (Muh-TAY-o) and I’d like to get your opinions.
If needed: This is a survey about important issues in your community. I’m NOT trying to sell anything and I won’t ask for a donation. Your responses will be confidential.
If needed: The survey should take about 12 minutes to complete.
If needed: If now is not a convenient time, can you let me know a better time so I can call back?
If the person asks why you need to speak to the listed person or if they ask to participate instead, explain: For statistical purposes, at this time the survey must only be completed by this particular individual.
Section 2: Importance of Issues
Q1 To begin, how long have you lived in the City of San Mateo? 1 Less than 1 year 2%
2 1 to 4 years 13%
3 5 to 9 years 14%
4 10 to 14 years 12%
5 15 years or longer 59%
99 Not Sure/Prefer not to answer 0%
Q2 What would you say is the biggest issue facing San Mateo that you would like the City to address? Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below.
Affordability of housing 25%
Growth, development 21%
Traffic congestion 16%
Crime, gangs, drugs 11%
Not sure / Cannot think of anything 8%
Infrastructure maintenance, repairs 7%
Parking 7%
Homelessness 7%
Downtown revitalization 4%
No issues / Everything is fine 4%
City cleanliness, landscaping 3%
Quality of education, schools 3%
Enforcement of traffic laws 3%
High taxes, fees 3%
Environmental issues 3%
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Lack of variety of high-end restaurants, shops 3%
Improvement of future development,
planning, zoning 3%
High cost of living 2%
Lack of parks, rec centers, activities for all
ages 2%
Section 3: Initial Ballot Tests
Your household is within the City of San Mateo. Later this year, voters in the City may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure.
Split Sample. Only Sample A (Sales Tax) gets Q3 & Q4.
Q3
To provide funding for general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection, paramedic, and 9-1-1 emergency response /g120 Police patrols and crime prevention
/g120 Maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure /g120 Traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services
shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 (one-quarter) cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 23% Skip to Q7
2 Probably yes 36% Skip to Q7
3 Probably no 10% Ask Q4
4 Definitely no 22% Ask Q4
98 Not sure 9% Ask Q4
99 Prefer not to answer 0% Skip to Q7
Q4
Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the measure I just described? If yes, ask: Please briefly describe your reason. Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below.
Taxes, already too high 44%
Money is misspent, mismanaged 29%
City has enough money 11%
Need more information 8%
Other ways to be funded 7%
Not sure / No particular reason 7%
Do not trust City 6%
Money will go to employee pensions, salaries 2%
Other higher priorities in community 2%
City is okay as-is, there are no issues 1%
It will hurt small businesses 1%
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Split Sample. Only Sample B (Real Property Transfer Tax) gets Q5 & Q6.
Q5
To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection
/g120 9-1-1 emergency response
/g120 Crime prevention
/g120 And street maintenance
Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property transfer tax as follows: no increase for properties under 2.5 (two point five) million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 (two point five) million dollars to 5 million dollars, 1/2% for properties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 27% Skip to Q7
2 Probably yes 24% Skip to Q7
3 Probably no 14% Ask Q6
4 Definitely no 27% Ask Q6
98 Not sure 9% Ask Q6
99 Prefer not to answer 0% Skip to Q7
Q6
Is there a particular reason why you do not support or are unsure about the measure I just described? If yes, ask: Please briefly describe your reason. Verbatim responses recorded and later grouped into categories shown below.
Taxes, already too high 48%
Money is misspent, mismanaged 27%
Other ways to be funded 15%
City has enough money 13%
Need more information 8%
Not sure / No particular reason 7%
Do not trust City 4%
Other higher priorities in community 3%
Not a homeowner, unsure of details 2%
City is okay as-is, there are no issues 1%
Money will go to employee pensions, salaries 1%
Mentioned past ballot measures 1%
Tax should have a sunset 1%
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Section 4: Programs & Projects
Q7
The measure we’ve been discussing would provide funding for a variety of city services and projects.
If the measure passes, would you favor or oppose using some of the money to: _____, or do you not have an opinion? Get answer, if favor or oppose, then ask: Would that be strongly (favor/oppose) or somewhat (favor/oppose)?
Randomize
Strongly
Favor
Somewhat
Favor
Somewhat
Oppose
Strongly
Oppose
Not sure
Prefer not
to answer
A Provide fire protection and paramedic
services 51% 31% 7% 5% 4% 3%
B Provide quick responses to 9-1-1 emergencies 55% 28% 5% 5% 4% 3% C Provide police and crime prevention services 51% 27% 6% 10% 3% 3% D Maintain local streets and infrastructure 57% 28% 4% 4% 3% 3% E
Maintain parks, open spaces, and recreation
facilities including courts, fields, and
playgrounds
54% 32% 4% 5% 2% 2%
F Keep public areas, buildings, and restrooms
clean and free of graffiti 41% 36% 9% 5% 6% 3%
G
Make improvements to roads, intersections,
sidewalks, and bike lanes to better manage
traffic congestion on city streets
55% 27% 7% 6% 3% 2%
H Address homelessness 46% 26% 10% 12% 4% 3%
I Reduce stormwater pollution 33% 35% 13% 8% 9% 3%
J
Make changes to reduce environmental
impacts, such as installing electric vehicle
charging stations and converting the City’s
fleet to electric vehicles
33% 28% 12% 18% 5% 3%
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Section 5: Positive Arguments
What I’d like to do now is tell you what some people say about the measure we’ve been discussing.
Q8 Supporters of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to SUPPORT the measure? Randomize
Very
Convincing
Somewhat
Convincing
Not At All
Convincing
Don’ t
Believe
Not sure
Prefer not to
answer
All respondents receive items A-F.
A
All money raised by the measure will be used
to fund essential services and facilities here
in San Mateo. By law, it can’t be taken away
by the State.
28% 34% 17% 14% 4% 4%
B
There will be a clear system of accountability
including annual independent audits to
ensure that the money is spent properly.
24% 31% 17% 21% 5% 3%
C
By keeping our city safe, clean, and well-
maintained, this measure will help protect our
property values and keep San Mateo a special
place to live.
28% 35% 21% 11% 3% 3%
D
Fast emergency response times for 9-1-1 calls
are critical for saving lives. This measure will
ensure that we have enough police officers,
firefighters, dispatchers, and paramedics to
respond quickly to 9-1-1 emergencies.
32% 36% 16% 10% 3% 3%
E
The funding raised by this measure will allow
the City to keep up with basic repairs and
make improvements to streets, sidewalks,
storm drains, and community facilities. The
longer we wait to make repairs and
improvements, the more expensive it will be.
32% 35% 16% 11% 2% 3%
F
There are many projects and services that
residents have identified as priorities for the
City’s future, but that don’t have a funding
source. This measure will provide the funding
needed to address these high priorities.
17% 33% 29% 15% 3% 3%
Only Sample A (Sales Tax) receives items G & H.
G
A substantial amount of the money raised by
the sales tax will come from people who visit
our community, but don’t live here. This
measure will make sure they pay their fair
share for the facilities and services they use
while in our city.
22% 30% 28% 11% 6% 4%
H
This measure will cost just 25 cents for every
100 dollars purchased – and food, medicine
and many other essential items are excluded
from the tax.
20% 36% 22% 13% 6% 4%
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Only Sample B (Real Property Transfer Tax) receives items I, J & K.
I This is a one-time tax that is applied only
when a property is sold or transferred. 24% 30% 20% 18% 4% 3% J
Only the most expensive properties in the
City will be impacted by this measure. Based
on the properties sold in 2021, 90% of
properties would not experience a tax
increase.
27% 27% 22% 17% 4% 3%
K
This measure increases the tax rate only for
properties worth more than 2.5 (two point
five) million dollars. It does not apply to
properties worth less than that amount.
28% 24% 28% 13% 4% 4%
Section 6: Interim Ballot Tests
Sometimes people change their minds about a measure once they have more information about it. Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it again.
Split Sample. Only Sample A (Sales Tax) gets Q9.
Q9
To provide funding for general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection, paramedic, and 9-1-1 emergency response /g120 Police patrols and crime prevention
/g120 Maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure /g120 Traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services
shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 (one-quarter) cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 25%
2 Probably yes 33%
3 Probably no 12%
4 Definitely no 20%
98 Not sure 9%
99 Prefer not to answer 1%
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Split Sample. Only Sample B (Real Property Transfer Tax) gets Q10.
Q10
To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection
/g120 9-1-1 emergency response
/g120 Crime prevention
/g120 And street maintenance
Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property transfer tax as follows: no increase for properties under 2.5 (two point five) million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 (two point five) million dollars to 5 million dollars, 1/2% for properties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 27%
2 Probably yes 28%
3 Probably no 15%
4 Definitely no 22%
98 Not sure 7%
99 Prefer not to answer 1%
Section 7: Negative Arguments
Next, let me tell you what opponents of the measure say.
Q11 Opponents of the measure say: _____. Do you think this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not at all convincing reason to OPPOSE the measure? Randomize
Very
Convincing
Somewhat
Convincing
Not At All
Convincing
Don’ t
Believe
Not sure
Prefer not to
answer
A
Local residents and businesses have been hit
hard by the pandemic, inflation, and high gas
prices. Many are struggling to stay afloat.
Now is not the time to raise taxes.
41% 27% 21% 5% 3% 2%
B This tax will last forever. There is no
expiration date. 37% 28% 20% 7% 5% 3%
C
There are no guarantees on how funds will be
spent, which means the City can divert the
money to pet projects. The City government
can’t be trusted with our tax dollars.
39% 30% 16% 8% 4% 3%
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D
Our area is an expensive place to live,
especially for young families, seniors, and
those on fixed incomes. Passing this measure
will make it even less affordable.
37% 31% 18% 9% 2% 2%
E
The City’s latest budget estimate shows that
it has enough money to continue providing
services at their current levels. We don’t need
to increase our taxes.
37% 32% 15% 7% 6% 2%
Section 8: Final Ballot Tests
Now that you have heard a bit more about the measure, let me read you a summary of it one more time.
Split Sample. Only Sample A (Sales Tax) gets Q12.
Q12
To provide funding for general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection, paramedic, and 9-1-1 emergency response /g120 Police patrols and crime prevention
/g120 Maintenance of streets, parks, open space, and infrastructure /g120 Traffic management, addressing homelessness, and other city services
shall an ordinance establishing a 1/4 (one-quarter) cent sales tax be adopted, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with independent audits and all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 20% Skip to Q15
2 Probably yes 34% Skip to Q15
3 Probably no 13% Skip to Q15
4 Definitely no 23% Skip to Q15
98 Not sure 10% Skip to Q15
99 Prefer not to answer 1% Skip to Q15
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Split Sample. Only Sample B (Real Property Transfer Tax) gets Q13 .
Q13
To fund general city services in the City of San Mateo, such as:
/g120 Fire protection
/g120 9-1-1 emergency response
/g120 Crime prevention
/g120 And street maintenance
Shall an ordinance be adopted increasing the real property transfer tax as follows: no increase for properties under 2.5 (two point five) million dollars, 1/4% for properties 2.5 (two point five) million dollars to 5 million dollars, 1/2% for properties 5 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1% for properties over 10 million dollars, providing approximately 6 million dollars annually for general government use in San Mateo until ended by voters, with all money locally controlled?
If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? 1 Definitely yes 22% Skip to Q15
2 Probably yes 27% Skip to Q15
3 Probably no 17% Ask Q14
4 Definitely no 25% Ask Q14
98 Not sure 8% Ask Q14
99 Prefer not to answer 1% Skip to Q15
Q14
What if the real property transfer tax increase only applied to properties worth more than 3 million dollars? In other words, if your property is worth less than 3 million dollars, there is no tax impact from this measure.
Knowing this, if the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? Get answer, then ask: Would that be definitely (yes/no) or probably (yes/no)? Def, prob yes @ Q13 49%
1 Definitely yes 4%
2 Probably yes 7%
3 Probably no 12%
4 Definitely no 21%
98 Not sure 5%
99 Prefer not to answer 2%
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Section 9: Background & Demographics
Thank you so much for your participation. I have just a few background questions for statistical purposes.
Q15 In your opinion, has the City of San Mateo done an excellent, good, fair, poor or very poor job of managing its financial resources?
1 Excellent 7%
2 Good 29%
3 Fair 29%
4 Poor 11%
5 Very poor 5%
98 Not sure 19%
99 Prefer not to answer 1%
Q16 Do you have children under the age of 18 living in your household? 1 Yes 34%
2 No 61%
99 Prefer not to answer 5%
Those are all of the questions that I have for you. Thanks so much for participating in this important survey.
Post-Interview & Sample Items
S1 Gender
1 Male 46%
2 Female 51%
99 Prefer not to answer 3%
S2 Party
1 Democrat 55%
2 Republican 15%
3 Other 5%
4 DTS 25%
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S3 Age on Voter File
1 18 to 29 9%
2 30 to 39 16%
3 40 to 49 20%
4 50 to 64 27%
5 65 or older 28%
S4 Registration Date
1 Since Nov 2018 11%
2 Jun 2012 to before Nov 2018 20%
3 Jun 2006 to before Jun 2012 11%
4 Before June 2006 58%
S5 Household Party Type
1 Single Dem 32%
2 Dual Dem 15%
3 Single Rep 6%
4 Dual Rep 4%
5 Single Other 16%
6 Dual Other 4%
7 Dem & Rep 3%
8 Dem & Other 13%
9 Rep & Other 5%
0 Mixed (Dem + Rep + Other) 2%
S6 Homeowner on Voter File
1 Yes 53%
2 No 47%
S7 Likely to Vote by Mail
1 Yes 90%
2 No 10%
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S8 Likely June 2022 Voter
1 Yes 67%
2 No 33%
S9 Likely November 2022 Voter
1 Yes, natural 95%
2 Yes, GOTV 5%
S10 Survey Language
1 English 96%
2 Spanish 4%
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CITY OF SAN MATEO
3 3
4 0
CITY OF SAN MATEO
Agenda Report
City Hall
330 W. 20th Avenue
San Mateo CA 94403
www.cityofsanmateo.org
Agenda Number: 2 Section Name: STUDY SESSION File ID: 22-6119-01 TO: City Council
FROM: Drew Corbett, City Manager
PREPARED BY: Public Works Department
MEETING DATE: May 16, 2022
SUBJECT:
OneShoreline – Update
RECOMMENDATION:
Receive an update from OneShoreline on efforts addressing sea level rise in the area and provide feedback.
BACKGROUND:
In 2018, the City was part of a Staff Advisory Team (SAT) organized by the City/County Association of Government’s Countywide Water Coordination Committee tasked with developing a Countywide agency focused on sea level rise. The effort led to the creation of the Flood and Sea Level Rise Resiliency Agency / OneShoreline in 2019. OneShoreline’s mission is to address sea level rise, flooding, coastal erosion, and large-scale stormwater improvements through integrated regional planning, design, permitting, project implementation, and long-term operations and maintenance. When created, OneShoreline was tasked to develop an Integrated Flood and Sea Level Rise Resiliency Investment Plan for the Bayshore and the Coastside to address short-term (2050) and long-term (2100) sea level rise, flooding, and coastal erosion. On April 1, 2019, the City committed to provide funding in the amount of $55,000 per year to OneShoreline for the first three years.
OneShoreline will provide an update and receive Council feedback and questions.
BUDGET IMPACT:
There is no budget impact associated with receiving this update.
ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINATION:
This item is not subject to CEQA because it is an organizational or administrative activity that will not result in a direct or indirect physical change in the environment. (CEQA Guidelines Section 15378(b)(5).)
NOTICE PROVIDED
All meeting noticing requirements were met.
ATTACHMENTS
None
STAFF CONTACT
Azalea Mitch, Director of Public Works
[email protected]
(650) 522-7303
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