City of San Mateo
Attachment 1
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast
Scenario A - Middle Ground
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions *Revenue Assumptions on Property Tax:
(1) Property assessed values (AV) grow 4% annually.
(2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): Assuming the City will receive VLF revenue, but only at reduced levels. $80.6 $78.4 $83.7 $85.5 $88.8 $92.4 $96.0 $99.8 $103.7 $107.7 $111.9 $116.3 $120.9 -10
10 30
50 70
90 110
130
150
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund - Top 4 Tax Revenues
(in millions)
Property Tax* Sales Tax (including Measure S) Property Transfer Tax TOT 0 50
100
150
200
250
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund Revenues vs. Expenses
(in millions)
Operating Expenses (Baseline) Contribution to CIP Total Revenues $117.9
$109.9
$99.4
$90.4
$80.5
$70.8
$60.1
$50.4
$41.7
$35.5 $31.2 $30.2 $31.7
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund Balance Forecast
(in millions)
General Fund - Ending Fund Balance 25% Operating Reserve $-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25Millions
VLF Forecast
Middle-Ground Scenario: Reduced Revenue
VLF available VLF shortall backfilled by State VLF Middle-Ground Scenario VLF Best Scenario VLF Worst Scenario VLF entitlement
1 of 6
City of San Mateo
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Attachment 1
Scenario A - Middle Ground (continued)
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions 10-YEAR FORECAST
GENERAL FUND 2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
REVENUES
Property Tax* $80.6 $78.4 $83.7 $85.5 $88.8 $92.4 $96.0 $99.8 $103.7 $107.7 $111.9 $116.3 $120.9 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 29.6 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.2 Property Transfer Tax 7.4 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 TOT 6.1 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 29.7 30.8 30.7 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.3 36.3 37.3 38.4 39.5 40.6 Total Revenues 165.9 161.5 166.8 170.4 175.4 180.7 186.3 191.9 197.8 203.8 210.1 216.5 223.3
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 67.7 68.7 75.3 77.7 79.5 81.1 82.7 84.3 86.0 87.8 89.5 91.3 93.1 Non-Personnel Costs 34.8 37.7 39.9 40.4 42.2 43.8 45.5 46.9 48.5 50.0 51.7 53.3 55.1 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 32.8 34.3 36.1 37.7 39.0 40.3 42.0 43.1 44.3 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 11.7 11.4 13.0 13.3 14.3 15.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 16.8 16.7 15.8 15.5 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 4.6 4.1 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Operating Expenses (Baseline) 151.6 156.3 169.3 172.2 178.0 183.2 189.7 194.4 199.2 202.8 207.1 210.4 214.6 Contribution to CIP 7.9 13.2 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Total Expenditures 159.5 169.5 177.3 179.4 185.3 190.5 196.9 201.7 206.4 210.1 214.3 217.6 221.8 Surplus / (Deficit) 6.4 (8.0) (10.5) (9.0) (9.9) (9.7) (10.7) (9.7) (8.6) (6.2) (4.2) (1.1) 1.5 General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 111.5 117.9 109.9 99.4 90.4 80.5 70.8 60.1 50.4 41.7 35.5 31.2 30.2 General Fund - Ending Fund Balance $117.9 $109.9 $99.4 $90.4 $80.5 $70.8 $60.1 $50.4 $41.7 $35.5 $31.2 $30.2 $31.7 Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed values grow 4% annually.
(2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): City will receive VLF revenue, but only at reduced levels. 2 of 6
City of San Mateo
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Attachment 1
Scenario B - Optimistic
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions *Revenue Assumptions on Property Tax:
(1) Property assessed value (AV) annual growth will slow down in the next two years, then rebound to 6% annual growth thereafter. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): Assuming the State will backfill 100% of the VLF shortfall (with 2-year gap).
80.6 78.4 83.7 88.4 89.8 94.0
101.8
108.6
115.7 120.5 122.8 128.1
137.5
-10
10 30
50 70
90 110
130
150
General Fund - Top 4 Tax Revenues
(in millions)
Property Tax* Sales Tax (including Measure S) Property Transfer Tax TOT 0 50
100
150
200
250
General Fund Revenues vs. Expenses
(in million)
Operating Expenses (Baseline) Contribution to CIP General Fund Total Revenues $117.9
$109.9
$99.4
$93.2
$84.4
$76.3 $71.4 $70.4 $73.8
$80.3
$86.9
$97.7
$115.8
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
General Fund Balance Forecast
(in millions)
General Fund - Ending Fund Balance 25% Operating Reserve $12
$8
$12
$16
$11
$14
$16
$13 $13
$16
$18
$20 $20
$16 $16
$19
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25Millions
VLF Forecast
100% Backfilled by State (with 2-Year Gap)
VLF available VLF shortall backfilled by State VLF - Best Scenario VLF entitlement 3 of 6
City of San Mateo
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Attachment 1
Scenario B - Optimistic (continued)
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions 10-YEAR FORECAST
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
REVENUES
Property Tax* 80.6 78.4 83.7 88.4 89.8 94.0 101.8 108.6 115.7 120.5 122.8 128.1 137.5 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 29.6 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.2 Property Transfer Tax 7.4 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 TOT 6.1 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 29.7 30.8 30.7 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.3 36.3 37.3 38.4 39.5 40.6 General Fund Total Revenues 165.9 161.5 166.8 173.2 176.4 182.4 192.0 200.7 209.8 216.6 220.9 228.4 239.9
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 67.7 68.7 75.3 77.7 79.5 81.1 82.7 84.3 86.0 87.8 89.5 91.3 93.1 Non-Personnel Costs 34.8 37.7 39.9 40.4 42.2 43.8 45.5 46.9 48.5 50.0 51.7 53.3 55.1 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 32.8 34.3 36.1 37.7 39.0 40.3 42.0 43.1 44.3 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 11.7 11.4 13.0 13.3 14.3 15.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 16.8 16.7 15.8 15.5 Debt Service and Other Transfers 4.6 4.1 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Operating Expenses (Baseline) 151.6 156.3 169.3 172.2 178.0 183.2 189.7 194.4 199.2 202.8 207.1 210.4 214.6 Contribution to CIP 7.9 13.2 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 General Fund Total Expenditures 159.5 169.5 177.3 179.4 185.3 190.5 196.9 201.7 206.4 210.1 214.3 217.6 221.8 Surplus / (Deficit) 6.4 (8.0) (10.5) (6.2) (8.9) (8.1) (4.9) (0.9) 3.4 6.5 6.6 10.8 18.1 General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 111.5 117.9 109.9 99.4 93.2 84.4 76.3 71.4 70.4 73.8 80.3 86.9 97.7 General Fund - Ending Fund Balance $117.9 $109.9 $99.4 $93.2 $84.4 $76.3 $71.4 $70.4 $73.8 $80.3 $86.9 $97.7 $115.8 Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed value annual growth will slow down in the next two years and rebound to 6% annual growth thereafter. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): Assuming the State will backfill 100% of the VLF shortfall (with 2-year gap). 4 of 6
City of San Mateo
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Attachment 1
Scenario C - Pessimistic
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions *Revenue Assumptions on Property Tax:
(1) Property assessed value (AV) annual growth will slow down in the next two years, then align with the long-term growth rate at 4% per year. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): Assuming the State will refuse to pay local VLF shortfall. $80.6 $78.4 $83.7 $80.4 $81.3 $82.3 $85.9 $88.5 $93.8 $95.2 $96.5 $96.8 $100.7 -10
10 30
50 70
90 110
130
150
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund - Top 4 Tax Revenues
(in millions)
Property Tax* Sales Tax (including Measure S) Property Transfer Tax TOT 0 50
100
150
200
250
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund Revenues vs. Expenses
(in millions)
Operating Expenses (Baseline) Contribution to CIP General Fund Total Revenues $117.9 $109.9
$99.4
$85.3
$67.9
$48.1
$27.3
$6.3
($12.2)
($31.0)
($50.7)
($71.2)
($89.9)
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
150
2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget
Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 General Fund Balance Forecast
(in millions)
$8
$12
$16
$11
$14
$9
$7
$5 $6 $5
$7
$5
$3
$- $-
$12 $13 $14
$15 $16 $16 $17 $18 $18 $19 $20 $21 $21 $22 $23 $24
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25Millions
VLF Forecast
State Refuses to Backfill VLF Shortfall
VLF available VLF shortall backfilled by State VLF - Worst Scenario VLF entitlement 5 of 6
City of San Mateo
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Attachment 1
Scenario C - Pessimistic (continued)
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions 10-YEAR FORECAST
GENERAL FUND 2022-23
Actuals
2023-24
Mid-Year
Estimates
2024-25
Baseline
Budget Est.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
REVENUES
Property Tax* $80.6 $78.4 $83.7 $80.4 $81.3 $82.3 $85.9 $88.5 $93.8 $95.2 $96.5 $96.8 $100.7 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 29.6 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.2 Property Transfer Tax 7.4 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 TOT 6.1 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12.4 10.1 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 29.7 30.8 30.7 31.5 32.4 33.3 34.3 35.3 36.3 37.3 38.4 39.5 40.6 General Fund Total Revenues 165.9 161.5 166.8 165.3 167.9 170.6 176.2 180.6 187.8 191.3 194.7 197.1 203.1
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 67.7 68.7 75.3 77.7 79.5 81.1 82.7 84.3 86.0 87.8 89.5 91.3 93.1 Non-Personnel Costs 34.8 37.7 39.9 40.4 42.2 43.8 45.5 46.9 48.5 50.0 51.7 53.3 55.1 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 32.8 34.3 36.1 37.7 39.0 40.3 42.0 43.1 44.3 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 11.7 11.4 13.0 13.3 14.3 15.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 16.8 16.7 15.8 15.5 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 4.6 4.1 5.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Operating Expenses (Baseline) 151.6 156.3 169.3 172.2 178.0 183.2 189.7 194.4 199.2 202.8 207.1 210.4 214.6 Contribution to CIP 7.9 13.2 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 General Fund Total Expenditures 159.5 169.5 177.3 179.4 185.3 190.5 196.9 201.7 206.4 210.1 214.3 217.6 221.8 Surplus / (Deficit) 6.4 (8.0) (10.5) (14.1) (17.4) (19.8) (20.7) (21.0) (18.6) (18.8) (19.6) (20.6) (18.7) General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 111.5 117.9 109.9 99.4 85.3 67.9 48.1 27.3 6.3 (12.2) (31.0) (50.7) (71.2) General Fund - Ending Fund Balance $117.9 $109.9 $99.4 $85.3 $67.9 $48.1 $27.3 $6.3 ($12.2) ($31.0) ($50.7) ($71.2) ($89.9) Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed value annual growth will slow donw in the next two years, then grow 4% annually. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): Assuming the State refuse to pay local VLF shortfall. 6 of 6