City of San Mateo
Attachment 2
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Scenario A
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions GENERAL FUND 2025-26
Est. 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36
REVENUES
Property Tax* (no VLF) $73.0 $74.9 $77.9 $81.0 $84.1 $87.4 $91.6 $96.1 $100.8 $105.7 $110.9 VLF Property Tax $14.3 $10.1 $14.9 $15.5 $18.8 $17.0 $20.7 $22.1 $17.5 $23.4 $24.8 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.4 Property Transfer Tax 10.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 TOT 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 35.4 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.4 39.3 40.1 Total Revenues 176.8 174.0 182.8 187.5 195.2 197.8 207.0 214.5 215.9 228.5 236.9
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 78.7 82.3 84.4 86.9 89.5 92.2 95.0 97.8 100.7 103.8 106.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 13.4 14.7 14.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.8 Non-Personnel Operating Expenses 42.6 44.7 41.5 42.6 43.7 44.4 45.5 46.8 48.0 49.3 50.6 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 38.8 40.7 42.5 42.3 44.2 44.0 45.8 46.8 47.5 48.5 49.7 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Operating Expenses 173.4 182.4 183.2 188.1 193.8 197.2 202.4 207.4 211.4 216.4 222.0 Transfers to CIP 8.9 4.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 Transfers Out - Debt Service & Other 1.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Expenditures 183.7 190.0 193.0 197.8 203.7 207.1 212.3 217.3 221.6 226.5 232.2 Surplus / (Deficit) (6.9) (16.0) (10.2) (10.3) (8.5) (9.2) (5.3) (2.7) (5.7) 1.9 4.7 General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 119.5 87.7 73.5 61.0 48.3 36.4 23.6 14.6 7.1 (2.4) (5.2) Transfer to Capital Invesment Reserve (25.0)
G
eneral Fund - Ending Fund Balance $87.7 $71.7 $63.4 $50.7 $39.8 $27.1 $18.2 $11.8 $1.4 ($0.5) ($0.4) Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed values grow 4% annually in first 5 years and 5% in second five years. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): City will receive 100% of VLF shortfall revenue.
City of San Mateo
Attachment 2
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Scenario B
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions GENERAL FUND 2025-26
Est. 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36
REVENUES
Property Tax* (no VLF) $73.0 $74.9 $77.9 $81.0 $84.1 $87.4 $91.6 $96.1 $100.8 $105.7 $110.9 VLF Property Tax $14.3 $10.1 $12.6 $13.0 $15.4 $13.4 $17.0 $17.4 $13.6 $18.7 $19.2 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.4 Property Transfer Tax 10.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 TOT 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 35.4 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.4 39.3 40.1 Total Revenues 176.8 174.0 180.5 185.0 191.8 194.3 203.3 209.9 212.0 223.8 231.2
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 78.7 82.3 84.4 86.9 89.5 92.2 95.0 97.8 100.7 103.8 106.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 13.4 14.7 14.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.8 Non-Personnel Operating Expenses 42.6 44.7 41.5 42.6 43.7 44.4 45.5 46.8 48.0 49.3 50.6 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 38.8 40.7 42.5 42.3 44.2 44.0 45.8 46.8 47.5 48.5 49.7 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Operating Expenses 173.4 182.4 183.2 188.1 193.8 197.2 202.4 207.4 211.4 216.4 222.0 Transfers to CIP 8.9 4.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 Transfers Out - Debt Service & Other 1.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Expenditures 183.7 190.0 193.0 197.8 203.7 207.1 212.3 217.3 221.6 226.5 232.2 Surplus / (Deficit) (6.9) (16.0) (12.5) (12.8) (11.9) (12.8) (9.0) (7.4) (9.6) (2.7) (1.0) General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 119.5 87.7 71.7 59.2 46.4 34.5 21.7 12.7 5.3 (4.3) (7.0) Transfer to Capital Invesment Reserve (25.0)
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eneral Fund - Ending Fund Balance $87.7 $71.7 $59.2 $46.4 $34.5 $21.7 $12.7 $5.3 ($4.3) ($7.0) ($8.0) Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed values grow 4% annually in first 5 years and 5% in second five years. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): City will receive 67% of VLF shortfall revenue.
City of San Mateo
Attachment 2
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Scenario C
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions GENERAL FUND 2025-26
Est. 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36
REVENUES
Property Tax* (no VLF) $73.0 $74.9 $77.9 $81.0 $84.1 $87.4 $91.6 $96.1 $100.8 $105.7 $110.9 VLF Property Tax $14.3 $10.1 $7.8 $8.1 $8.4 $6.2 $9.5 $7.9 $5.8 $9.2 $7.6 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.4 Property Transfer Tax 10.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 TOT 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 35.4 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.4 39.3 40.1 Total Revenues 176.8 174.0 175.7 180.1 184.8 187.1 195.8 200.3 204.2 214.3 219.7
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 78.7 82.3 84.4 86.9 89.5 92.2 95.0 97.8 100.7 103.8 106.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 13.4 14.7 14.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.8 Non-Personnel Operating Expenses 42.6 44.7 41.5 42.6 43.7 44.4 45.5 46.8 48.0 49.3 50.6 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 38.8 40.7 42.5 42.3 44.2 44.0 45.8 46.8 47.5 48.5 49.7 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Operating Expenses 173.4 182.4 183.2 188.1 193.8 197.2 202.4 207.4 211.4 216.4 222.0 Transfers to CIP 8.9 4.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 Transfers Out - Debt Service & Other 1.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Expenditures 183.7 190.0 193.0 197.8 203.7 207.1 212.3 217.3 221.6 226.5 232.2 Surplus / (Deficit) (6.9) (16.0) (17.3) (17.7) (18.8) (20.0) (16.5) (16.9) (17.4) (12.2) (12.5) General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 119.5 87.7 71.7 54.4 36.7 17.9 (2.1) (18.7) (35.6) (53.0) (65.2) Transfer to Capital Invesment Reserve (25.0)
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eneral Fund - Ending Fund Balance $87.7 $71.7 $54.4 $36.7 $17.9 ($2.1) ($18.7) ($35.6) ($53.0) ($65.2) ($77.7) Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed values grow 4% annually in first 5 years and 5% in second five years. 0 City of San Mateo
Attachment 2
General Fund Ten-Year Forecast Scenario D
Note: Directional estimates are provided solely to facilitate budget planning discussions GENERAL FUND 2025-26
Est. 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2035-36
REVENUES
Property Tax* (no VLF) $73.0 $74.9 $77.9 $81.0 $84.1 $87.4 $91.6 $96.1 $100.8 $105.7 $110.9 VLF Property Tax $14.3 $10.1 $7.8 $8.1 $8.4 $6.2 $9.5 $7.9 $5.8 $9.2 $7.6 Sales Tax (including Measure S) 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.4 Property Transfer Tax 10.9 9.0 9.0 4.5 - - - - - - - TOT 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 Other Taxes 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 Charges for Services, Fees and Other 35.4 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.8 37.1 37.4 38.1 38.4 39.3 40.1 Total Revenues 176.8 174.0 175.7 175.6 175.8 178.1 186.8 191.3 195.2 205.3 210.7
EXPENDITURES
Personnel Costs 78.7 82.3 84.4 86.9 89.5 92.2 95.0 97.8 100.7 103.8 106.9 Pension Unfunded Liability 13.4 14.7 14.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 15.2 14.8 14.8 Non-Personnel Operating Expenses 42.6 44.7 41.5 42.6 43.7 44.4 45.5 46.8 48.0 49.3 50.6 SMC Fire and Legacy Costs 38.8 40.7 42.5 42.3 44.2 44.0 45.8 46.8 47.5 48.5 49.7 Debt Service and Other Transfer Out 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Operating Expenses 173.4 182.4 183.2 188.1 193.8 197.2 202.4 207.4 211.4 216.4 222.0 Transfers to CIP 8.9 4.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 Transfers Out - Debt Service & Other 1.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Expenditures 183.7 190.0 193.0 197.8 203.7 207.1 212.3 217.3 221.6 226.5 232.2 Surplus / (Deficit) (6.9) (16.0) (17.3) (22.2) (27.8) (29.0) (25.5) (25.9) (26.4) (21.2) (21.5) General Fund - Beginning Fund Balance 119.5 87.7 71.7 54.4 32.2 4.4 (24.6) (50.2) (76.1) (102.5) (123.7) Transfer to Capital Invesment Reserve (25.0)
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eneral Fund - Ending Fund Balance $87.7 $71.7 $54.4 $32.2 $4.4 ($24.6) ($50.2) ($76.1) ($102.5) ($123.7) ($145.2) Assumptions:
(1) Property assessed values grow 4% annually in first 5 years and 5% in second five years. (2) Property tax in-lieu of VLF (VLF): City will receive 0% of VLF shortfall revenue. (3) Real Property Transfer Tax: City receives 0% of RPTT starting two years after potential ballot measure approved.