Tracking Survey Results
For Potential Sales Tax
Measure
November 2026
Zack Reda, Sr Management Analyst, CMO
Dr. Timothy McLarney, President, True North Research
Barry Barnes, Partner, TeamCivX
June 15, 2026
Agenda
• Background
• Sales Tax Tracking Survey Results
• Community Engagement Efforts
• Next Steps
Background
Summer 2025
Budget adopted with $12-14 million deficit
General Fund 10-year forecast points to
structural deficit
August 2025
Council directs staff to explore revenue
measure
January 2026
First polling results presented
Council directs staff to continue exploring
potential sales tax measure
January - June 2026
Staff educate and inform, True North
Research conducts second poll
6/15/26
SALES TAX TRACKING SURVEY
CO NDUC TE D FO R THE
C I TY OF SAN M ATE O
P RE SE N TE D BY
T I MO THY M CL A RNE Y P H.D.
5 5
o Gauge support for local sales tax measure in the
current environment
o Identify how to create a measure consistent with
community priorities
o Gather information needed for communications &
outreach
PURPOSE OF STUDY
6 6
o How did we select voters to survey?
o Stratified & Clustered Random Sample of likely November 2026 voters using age, gender, partisanship, household party type, and sub -geographies o Ensures balanced, representative sample of likely voters o How did we recruit participation?
o Personalized email, text, and telephone calls
o PINs to restrict access and ensure one complete per respondent o How were voters able to share their opinions?
o Secure, PIN -protected website that scales to the device o Telephone (land line or mobile)
o English & Spanish
o May 11 to May 15, 2026
o What was the sample size?
o 689 completed interviews
o Overall margin of error of ± 3.7% @ 95% level of confidence
METHODOLOGY OF STUDY
7 7
QUALITY OF LIFE
Excellent
24.7 Good
59.9 Fair
11.5 Poor
2.0 Very poor
0.8 DK/NA
1.1 8
8 CHANGES TO IMPROVE CITY
13.2 12.8
9.5 8.9
6.6 6.4
6.3 6.1
5.6 5.3
4.9 4.4
4.3 4.2
3.8 3.7
2.9 2.8
2.7 2.2
2.2 2.0
1.8 1.7
1.7 1.5
1.9 5.4
4.9 0 5 10 15
Limit growth, preserve open space
Provide more affordable housing
Reduce traffic congestion
Not sure / Cannot think of anything specific
Improve, maintain roads
Provide more shopping, dining opportunities
Improve parking
Improve public transit
Improve pedestrian safety
No changes needed / Everything is fine
Improve, add parks, rec facilities
Provide more, safer bike lanes
Improve downtown area
Enforce traffic laws
Provide additional youth, family activities, events for different ages Improve planning, zoning
Reduce taxes, fees
Beautify, clean up City
Improve schools, education
Reduce cost of living
Improve walkability
Keep Hillsdale Mall
Improve public safety, police presence
Limit building heights
Fix El Camino Real
Provide more grocery store
Address rent control issues
Address homeless issues
Address empty buildings
% Respondents
9 9
OVERALL SATISFACTION
Very satisfied
26.2 Somewhat
satisfied
54.0 Somewhat
dissatisfied
12.1 Very
dissatisfied
2.8 Not sure
4.5 Prefer not to
answer
0.4 10
10 INITIAL BALLOT TEST
To prov ide funding for San Mate o city services, such as:
o Ke eping local stre ets, sidewalks, park s, infrastructure, and comm unity facili tie s safe, clean, and wel l -maintained
o Fi xi ng potholes
o Providing fire protection, parame dic, crime preve ntion, and 9 -1-1 em ergency response
o And improve ments to traffic safety/traffic manage ment Shall City of San Mateo’s ordinance establ ishi ng a one -quarter cent sale s tax be adopted, prov iding 7 mil lion dollars annual ly for ge ne ral government use until ended by voters, with independent audits and all funds locally - controll ed? If the e lecti on were held today, would y ou vote ye s or no on this me asure?
11 11
INITIAL BALLOT TEST
Definitely yes
25.1 Probably yes
33.2 Probably no
14.2 Definitely no
18.6 Not sure
8.1 Prefer not to
answer
0.8 58%33%
12 12
PROJECTS & SERVICES
62.9 55.6
53.4 49.8
53.9 42.9
33.8 36.6
32.2 25.1
28.4 29.7
32.8 27.3
37.2 39.2
34.8 36.2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Keep streets, sidewalks, parks, infrastructure, community facilities safe, clean, well-maintained
Provide quick responses to 911 emergencies
Provide fire protection and paramedic services
Fix potholes
Improve traffic safety and reduce traffic congestion
Provide parks and recreation programs for all ages
Provide programs and services for seniors
Provide police and crime prevention services
Maintain adequate reserves to protect the City’s long-term financial health
% Respondents
Strongly favor Somewhat favor
13 13
POSITIVE ARGUMENTS
32.8 29.8
37.2 24.4
29.9 28.5
32.0 24.6
25.0 12.0
38.7 39.3
31.7 43.9
38.1 37.9
34.5 36.5
35.1 31.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
City maintains 200 mi of streets, 130 mi of storm drain pipes, 31 parks; measure provides funding we need to keep streets, infrastructure, parks in good condition
Fast response times for 911 critical for saving lives; measure will ensure enough police officers, firefighters, paramedics, police officers to respond quickly to 911 emergencies
All money raised by measure will be reinvested here in City of San Mateo; by law, it can’t be taken away by Federal Government, State or County By keeping city safe, clean, well-maintained, measure will help protect quality of life, keep San Mateo a special place to live Most facilities built 50+ yrs ago; have earthquake safety issues, outdated electrical, plumbing, and roof leaks that can cause water damage, mold; measure will help fix these problems
Most of sales tax generated locally goes to State, County; measure ensures higher percentage of sales tax dollars stay in City, we have local control over how those funds are spent
City of San Mateo has $350M in unfunded projects that need to be completed; longer we wait to fix streets, infrastructure, facilities, the more expensive it will become
In these uncertain times, we can’t rely on State or Federal government; measure provides stable, predictable funding for city services that is locally controlled
Measure includes a clear system of accountability incl independent audits, public disclosure of how all funds are spent
Measure makes good financial sense; much of money raised by sales tax comes from people who visit or pass through San Mateo, but don’t live here
% Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
14 14
INTERIM BALLOT TEST
Prefer not to
answer
1.6Not sure
9.2 Definitely no
17.5 Probably no
12.4 Probably yes
31.9 Definitely yes
27.5 59%30%
15 15
NEGATIVE ARGUMENTS
41.5 39.4
36.5 32.6
32.2 33.7
31.8 29.7
31.6 27.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Residents, local businesses have been hit hard by inflation, high interest rates, spiking fuel prices, cost of living increases; many are struggling to stay afloat; now is not the time to raise taxes
Community is already an expensive place to live, especially for young families, those on fixed incomes; passing this tax increase will make it even less affordable
Everyone is coming after us for tax increases, incl state, county taxes, school bonds, other taxes that will be on the ballot this yr; enough is enough; we can’t afford to keep raising taxes
There are no guarantees on how funds will be spent, which means City can divert money to pet projects without any say from voters; we can’t trust City with tax dollars
This tax will last forever; there is no expiration date % Respondents
Very convincing Somewhat convincing
16 16
FINAL BALLOT TEST
Definitely yes
22.1 Probably yes
32.3 Probably no
13.3 Definitely no
19.7 Not sure
9.8 Prefer not to
answer
2.7 54%
33%
17 17
Prefer not to
answer
2.4 Not sure
25.7 Definitely no
8.0 Probably no
12.4 Probably yes
35.7 Definitely yes
15.7 CHARTER AMENDMENT
18 18
KEY CONCLUSIONS
o Does a local sales tax measure still appear to be feasible for November 202 6? Yes , but it will require robust outreach & communications.
Positive Sign s
o Voters value the quality of life in San Mateo and the services they receive from the City, but also see room for improvements
o Sufficient natural support for measure to fund city services (58%) o Popular projects and services
o Positive arguments resonate
o All ballot tests are above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage of general tax, even after opposition arguments
Challenges & External Factors
o Receptiveness to potential opposition
o Challenging economic environment: war/fuel prices, tariffs, inflation, cost - of-living concerns, consumer sentiment at record low
o Challenging political climate: Hyper -partisanship, competing measures, and turnout?
Community Engagement Efforts to Date
19 • Two statistically reliable surveys Conducted via
phone, text message and web
• Two informational mailers Sent to all residents.
One additional postcard planned
• Community meetings More than a dozen
meetings completed so far with more scheduled
• Dedicated bilingual informational webpage Find
more information and upcoming meeting dates
at cityofsanmateo.org/ ballotmeasure
Voter Survey
Election Timing
Tax Rate
Political
Landscape
Non-Advocacy
Communication
Existing
Communications
Internal and External
Audiences
Seek Feedback
Refine Proposal
Community
Readiness?
Ballot Resolution
75 word question
Ballot Argument &
Signers
Official Council
Vote
(>88 days before
Election)
2026 Sales Tax Measure Planning
Council action summer
2026 for Nov 2026 election
We are Here
Immediate Next Steps
Continue educational outreach
Distribute final informational materials (mailer and
web)
Monitor County implementation of election-related
requirements (AB 1416)
July 20: Council consideration of submitting a
measure to the voters
Any future effort would be led by Independent
Campaign Committee