Prepared Expressly for…
June 2026
Strategy Research Institute
An Institute for CONSENSUS BUILDING
WWW.SRI-CONSULTING.ORG
800.224-7608
Research Design
Sample size: N=300
15.3% Opinion Leaders (N=46)
16.6% Young Adults (N=50)
11% chose to take survey in Spanish
Population surveyed: Registered Voters
Sampling Error: ±4.5 to 5.8%
Data Collection: May 28 thru June 10, 2026
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction Scores
Figure 1
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
San Pablo is a great
community…
I am happy to
be a resident
Question 1.0: San Pablo is a great
community; I am happy to be a
resident.
76 83
91 88 88 88 90 93
86 70
75 80
85 90
95 100
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Strongly Somewhat Unsure/ Somewhat Strongly Agree Ref Disagree
38 48
5 7
2 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
9%
Disagree
Opinion Leaders
87%
Agree
86%
Agree
Figure 2
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction (overall) with…
City-Sponsored
Services & Programs
Question 2.0: The City provides many
services to San Pablo residents,
including City street and park
maintenance, programs and services
for local youth and seniors, public
safety services (such as police
services), and many more. On whole,
how satisfied are you with the
services presently being provided by
and/or through the City?
14 65
5 11
5 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
79%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
74%
Satisfied
16%
Dissatisfied
Figure 3
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
City-Owned
Parks, Trails &
Rec Facilities
Question 2.1: How satisfied are you with the
City-owned parks, trails, and recreation
facilities available to the residents of San
Pablo; for example, the Wildcat Creek Trail,
which is part of the Bay Trail?
31 48
13 5 3
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
79%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
79%
Satisfied
8%
Dissatisfied
Figure 4
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
Level of
Public Safety
thru the City’s
Police Department
Question 2.2: How satisfied are you with the
level of public safety provided thru the
City’s Police Department?
33 51
4 7 5
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
84%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
74%
Satisfied
12%
Dissatisfied
Figure 5
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
Level of Street
Maintenance
Throughout the City
Question 2.3: How satisfied are you
with the level of street
maintenance throughout the
City of San Pablo?
16 47
11 15 11
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral / Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
63%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
52%
Satisfied
26%
Dissatisfied
Figure 6
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
City’s Efforts Towards
Preventing
Illegal Dumping
Question 2.4: How satisfied are you with
the City’s efforts towards preventing
illegal dumping?
12 40
14 24
10 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
52%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
43%
Satisfied
36%
Dissatisfied
Figure 7
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
Senior Services
Provided thru the City
Question 2.5: How satisfied are you with
senior services being provided thru the
City, such as the daily senior meal
program?
16 37 41
5 1
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
53%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
57%
Satisfied
6%
Dissatisfied
Figure 8
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
Youth Services
Provided thru the City
Question 2.6: How satisfied are you with
youth services being provided thru the
City, such as youth scholarship
programs, and much more?
12 45
33 9
1 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ c Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
10%
Dissatisfied
57%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
52%
Satisfied
Figure 9
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
Quality of Education
Through Public Schools
Question 2.7: How satisfied are you with the
quality of education being provided
through public schools to school age
children who reside in San Pablo?
14 37
26 17
6 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
51%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
52%
Satisfied
23%
Dissatisfied
Figure 10
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Satisfaction with…
City’s Effort Toward
Assisting the
Homeless
Question 2.8: How satisfied are you with
the City’s efforts toward assisting the
homeless?
6 34
23 27
10 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Extremely Somewhat Neutral/ Somewhat Extremely Satisfied Ref Dissatisfied
40%
Satisfied
Opinion Leaders
30%
Satisfied
37%
Dissatisfied
Aware of…
Overall
Financial Health
of the City
Question 4.0 Until the present
survey, were you aware of the
financial health of the City and
the set of financial challenges
facing City officials.
68%
NOT
Aware
3%
Extremely
Aware
1%
Unsure/
Ref
28%
Somewhat
Aware
Opinion
Leaders
83%
Not
Aware
Aware
31%
Figure 11
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Concerned About…
the Financial Health
of the City
Question 4.1 Whether or not you were
previously aware of the fiscal challenges
presently facing City officials, if you
learned about these challenges through a
trusted source, would that make you
highly concerned, somewhat concerned,
or not at all concerned about how this
set of challenges will impact the quality
of life for your family and all
San Pablo residents?
41%
Highly
Concerned
46%
Somewhat
Concerned6%
Unsure/
Ref
7%
Opinion
Leaders
100%
Concerned
NOT
Concerned
Concerned
87%
Figure 12
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Voter Support
for Increasing Sales Tax
Figure 13
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Support for…
Increase in
Sales Tax
Q5.2 To provide funding to maintain City
services, including crime prevention,
police protection, reducing illegal
dumping, workforce development and
job creation, senior meal programs,
youth scholarship programs, street
maintenance, assisting the homeless,
rent review (including mobile homes),
and other important general city
services, shall the measure enacting a
temporary
½-cent sales tax,
terminating 10 years after collection
begins, generating approximately
$2,000,000 annually, with citizen
oversight, mandated annual audits, and
all funds staying in San Pablo be
adopted?
17%
Definitely
NO
28%
Definitely
YES
34%
Probably
YES
13%
Unsure/Ref
8%
Probably
NO
Opinion Leaders
59.5%
Likely YES
Potential
YES
62%
100% Definitely +
100% Probably
45%
Likely YES
SRI’s Go, No-Go
100% Definitely +
50% Probably
Figure 14
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
You won’t Support ½-cent
for 10 years
Will You Support…
½-cent 1st 5 yrs &
¼-cent 2nd 5 yrs?
Question 6.0 Since you’re not willing to
support a temporary ½-cent increase in
the City’s sales tax for 10 years…would
you support increasing the local sales
tax by ½-cent for five years and reducing
it to ¼-cent for five additional years to
address the fiscal challenges presently
facing the City?
16%
Definitely
NO
41%
Definitely
YES
5.2 & 6
21%
Probably
YES
8%
Unsure/Ref
14%
Probably
NO
Opinion Leaders
57%
Likely Support
SRI’s Go, No-Go Model
Potential
YES
62%
100% Definitely +
100% Probably
Likely
YES
51.5%
SRI’s Go, No-Go
100% Definitely +
50% Probably
Likely Support
½ cent for 10 yrs
45%
(Version 2 of
Ballot Language)
Impact
of Arguments
(rank-ordered)
Figure 15
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
100% of Revenue
Generated
MUST Remain in
San Pablo
Question 7.6: By law, 100% of the revenue
generated through this Sales Tax MUST
remain in San Pablo and be used to
benefit San Pablo residents.
34 31
19 8 5 3
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 13%
Oppose
65%
Support
Opinion Leaders
61%
Support
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Figure 16
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Non-Residents Who
Shop In San Pablo
Will Also Pay
Question 7.2: One advantage of a sales tax is
it won’t be entirely funded by San Pablo
residents; non‐residents from outside the
City, who also purchase taxable goods
and services while visiting San Pablo (for
example, frequent restaurants, purchase
gas, shop at local stores, and-the-like)
will also pay sales tax; thus, everyone
pays their fair share.
29 27
17 6 12 9
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
18%
Oppose
56%
Support
Opinion Leaders
65%
Support
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Figure 17
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
An Independent
Citizen’s Oversight
Committee will Monitor
All Expenditures
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Question 7.7: An independent Citizens’
Oversight Committee will be appointed
to monitor ALL expenditures AND will
produce an annual report, which will be
shared with the community-at-large.
27 24 27
7 10 5
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 17%
Oppose
51%
Support
Opinion Leaders
52%
Support
Figure 18
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
City Will be Unable
to Invest in Parks,
Trails & Open Space
Question 7.9: Without these new sales
tax funds, the City won't be able to
invest in more parks, trails and open
space…as well as sustain youth
scholarship programs, recreation
programs, and senior meal programs.
19 27 25
9 5
15 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 14%
Oppose
46%
Support
Opinion Leaders
52%
Support
Figure 19
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
City Will NOT Be Able
to Keep Present
Public Safety Services
Question 7.1: Without these monies, the City
will NOT be able to keep the public safety
services presently being provided through
our San Pablo Police Department at their
present level.
20 23 28
5 7
17 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 12%
Oppose
43%
Support
Opinion Leaders
43%
Support
Figure 20
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 20 22
28 5
14 11
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
19%
Oppose
42%
Support
Opinion Leaders
56%
Support
Question 7.3: Without these new sales
tax funds, the City will be unable to
pursue new economic or housing
development partnerships with the
private sector; thus, cutting off future
revenue and housing opportunities.
City will Not
be Able to Pursue
New Economic or Housing
Development Partnerships
Figure 21
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
City Will be Forced to
Cut Back on Services &
Programs
Question 7.11: Without these new sales
tax funds, the City will be forced to cut
back on the current level of services
and programs presently being provided
to local residents, thus, negatively
impacting the
quality of life for all
San Pablo residents.
21 21
30 9 8 11
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 7%
Oppose
42%
Support
Opinion Leaders
31%
Support
Figure 22
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
City Will Be Forced into
Deficit Spending
Question 7.5: Without the revenues from the
proposed funding Measure, the City will be
forced into “deficit spending”, which means
that the City will have to take money out of
its reserves, cut existing programs and
services, or layoff its City workforce to cover
annual operating costs, instead of using
these monies as intended
, for emergencies
and catastrophic events.
17 24 26
9 12 12
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 21%
Oppose
41%
Support
Opinion Leaders
39%
Support
Figure 23
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Taxes are Simply
TOO HIGH
Question 7.4: Taxes are simply too high.
San Pablo residents need tax relief.
23 17
28 10 10 12
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 20%
Oppose
40%
Support
Opinion Leaders
18% Support
30% Oppose
Figure 24
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
Pay Using
Existing Revenues
Even If Services have to be Reduced
Question 7.8: Rather than increasing local taxes,
City services and programs should be paid
from the City's current revenues and
reserves…even if City services have to be cut.
17 21
30 11 13 8
0 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 24%
Oppose
38%
Support
Opinion Leaders
35%
Support
Figure 25
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Arguments to
Support or Oppose…
City Will be Unable to
Keep Up with
Road Maintenance
Question 7.10: Without these funds, the
City will NOT be able to keep up with
road maintenance at its present level.
15 23
30 7 7
18 0
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
Percent
Much more Some more No effect/ Some more Much more Not Support Support Ref Oppose Oppose Believe 14%
Oppose
38%
Support
Opinion Leaders
31%
Support
Voter Support
After Arguments
(Counter Intuitive)
Figure 26
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Question 8.0 Now that you have heard
several arguments in SUPPORT of,
and in OPPOSITION to, the notion of
authorizing an increase in the local
Sales Tax in order to avoid having to
make serious cutbacks in services
presently being provided to San Pablo
residents, and assuming the amount
of increase does NOT exceed your
THRESHOLD of
willingness to pay;
would you vote YES or NO on such a
funding Measure?
19%
Definitely
NO
8%
Definitely
YES
34%
Probably
YES
18%
Unsure/Ref
Potential
YES
42%
100% Definitely +
100% Probably
Likely
YES
25%
SRI’s Go, No-Go
100% Definitely +
50% Probably
Opinion Leaders
27%
Likely Support
SRI’s Go, No-Go Model
21%
Probably
NO
Likely Support
Before
Arguments
(Version 2)
45%
Support for…
Increase in Sales Tax
AFTER ARGUMENTS
Determinants & Magnitude
of Voting Behavior
(more likely to vote YES or NO
for increase in the City’s Sales Tax)
(Rank-ordered)
Based on advanced statistical analysis
Figure 27
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Determinants &
Magnitude
of Voting Behavior
(More likely to vote
YES or NO for Increase in
the City’s Sales Tax)
Rank-ordered
(based on advanced
statistical analysis)
Q.5.2
Argument Make
More Likely to
Vote
YES/No
.50
p<001
Top 5 ARGUMENTS
.23
p<.03
Q7.6 100% of the revenue
stays in San Pablo to benefit
residents
.19
p<.10
.32
p<.05
Q7.5 City will be forced into
Deficit Spending, rather
than using reserves for
emergencies & catastrophic
events, as intended.
Q7.2 Non‐residents will also pay
sales tax; thus, everyone pays
their fair share.
Q7.4 Taxes are simply too high,
San Pablo residents need
tax relief
.42
p<007
Q7.7 Oversight Committee will
monitor ALL expenditures
Figure 28
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Sources of Information
Regarding San Pablo
Question 9.0: Where do you go to secure
information about the City of San Pablo?
1st + 2nd Source
Q9.4 Socal Media Platforms
Q9.8 Television
Q9.6 Direct Mail
Q9.1 Visit City’s Web Site
Q9.3 Visit City Offices
Q9.7 Newspaper
Q9.2 Phone City Offices
Q9.9 Radio
Q9.5 Attend Pubic Informational
Meetngs
17 5
10 33
30 36
27 35
29 42
40 25
44 43
4 12
4 28
0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent
39 74
47 50
58 79
46 39
32 Recommendations
Are Straight-forward
Recommendations
2. 1/2-cent for 1st five yrs and
1/4-cent for 2nd five years (see Figure 30 for
proposed ballot language).
3. An intense Public Outreach effort is necessary.
3.1 It is essential to make San Pablo voters
AWARE of the fiscal challenges facing the City.
3.2 The message must stress the need to
MAINTAIN the present level of services
being provided thru the City; NOT threaten
cutbacks if funding Measure fails.
It’s a Go!1.
3.3 The message should place emphasis
on the determinants of voting
behavior identified in the Regression
Model (Figure 27); plus, the elements
of proposed Ballot Language in
Figure 13 (rank-ordered, based upon
past research).
4. Tracking poll end of August 2026.
5. Make adjustments based upon the
findings from the Tracking Poll.
Figure 29
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
Proposed Ballot Language
½-cent for 5 yrs; Reduced to ¼-cent for next 5 yrs.; then Terminated Figure 30
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026
To provide funding to maintain City services, including crime prevention, police protection, reducing illegal dumping, the City’s daily senior meal program, youth scholarship programs, assisting the homeless, street maintenance, and other general services, shall San Pablo enact a temporary ½-cent sales tax for 5 years, generating approximately $2,000,000 annually, then reduced to ¼-cent for 5 years, generating approximately $1,000,000 annually, then terminate; with all funds staying in San Pablo, citizen oversight, and mandated annual audits?
Thank You
I'll be pleased to
Take Questions Now
Demographic Profile
of Respondents
Figure 31
Voter Support for Increase in Sales Tax
June 2026Ethnicity
White/Caucasian 27%
Hispanic/Latino 39%
Black/African American 20%
Native American/
Native Alaskan/ 1%
Native Hawaiian & other
Pacific Islander 1%
Asian 2%
Other 1%
Reused 9%
Ideology
Liberal 21%
Progressive 13%
Moderate 30%
Conservative 18%
Refused 18%
Party ID
Democrat 50%
Republican 5%
Independent 19%
Other 11%
Refused 15%
Voting
Propensity
Low 9%
Moderate 19%
High 72%
Age
18 to 30 17%
31 to 40 21%
41 to 50 16%
51 to 65 17%
Over 65 years 19%
Refused 10%
Household Income
Under $25,000 7%
$25,001 to $50,000 15%
$50,001 to $75,000 26%
$75,001 to $100,000 12%
Over $100,000 16%
Refused 24%
Education
Less than High School 5%
High School/Trade School 15%
Some College 29%
College Graduate 37%
Graduate/Prof. School 9%
Refused 5%
# School Aged Children
None 58%
One 21%
Two 17%
Three or more 1%
Refused 3%
Gender
Male 43%
Female 57%
Home Ownership
Own 54%
Rent 41%
Refused 5%
Area of Residence
East I80/San Pablo Hills 11%
Old Town 12%
N San Pablo, Leroy Heights
Contra Costa College 39%
West I80, Casino Hospital
Area, City Hall 22%
Refused 16%