City of San Pablo
Rent Control Initiative
Elections Code Section 9212 Report
July 13, 2026
About RSG
• 40+ years of experience in affordable housing and housing policy • Extensive experience developing, implementing, and administering rent stabilization and tenant protection programs throughout California
• Practical expertise in fiscal analyses, staffing and fee analysis, implementation planning, rental registries, petitions and hearings, and ongoing program administration • Brings direct operational experience supporting jurisdictions through every stage of program implementation
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 2 Background
• On December 15, 2025, proponents submitted the San Pablo Rent Stabilization and Tenant Protections Initiative to the City
• The Initiative proposes the adoption of a Rent Stabilization and Tenant Protections Ordinance governing rental housing in San Pablo
• On June 15, 2026, the City Council voted to direct the preparation of an independent report pursuant to California Elections Code Section 9212 • The City retained RSG to prepare the independent analysis presented today July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 3 Legal Requirements
Pursuant to California Elections Code Section 9212(a), the City Council may request a report evaluating one or more specified topics. For this report, RSG evaluated the following:
1. The fiscal impact of the proposed Initiative
2. Its effect on the internal consistency of the City's General Plan and the consistency between the General Plan and the Housing Element
3. Its effect on the use of land, the impact on the availability and location of housing, and the City's ability to meet its Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 4 Methodology
To evaluate the requirements of California Elections Code Section 9212(a), RSG conducted the following analyses:
• Fiscal Impacts: Estimated staffing, implementation, administration, and operating costs based on the proposed Ordinance, peer jurisdiction data, and RSG's experience implementing and administering rent stabilization programs • General Plan & Housing Element Consistency: Evaluated the proposed Ordinance for consistency with the City's General Plan and Housing Element • Housing, Land Use & RHNA: Analyzed local housing market conditions, demographics, and available academic literature to evaluate potential impacts on housing availability, land use, and the City's ability to meet Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) requirements
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 5 About the Proposed Initiative
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Policy Area Key Provisions
Rent Stabilization • Annual allowable increase: 60% of CPI (0% minimum; 3% maximum) • No rent banking
Eviction & Tenant Protections
• Just-cause eviction requirements
• Relocation assistance for qualifying no-fault evictions & temporary displacement • Ellis Act withdrawal regulations
• Tenant buyouts, rehabilitation-related Tenant Safety Plans, enhanced noticing Covered Housing
• Covers most rental housing and mobilehome spaces
• Establishes exemptions consistent with state law
• Coverage would expand if Costa-Hawkins is repealed
Additional Protections
• Right to organize
• Anti-harassment and anti-retaliation
• Utility billing limitations
Program Administration
• Program records, fee administration, and data management • Petition and hearing process
• Compliance and enforcement
6 Estimated Covered Units – Current Law
Housing Type Coverage Full or Partial Estimated Units
Renter-Occupied Single-Family Units Just Cause and Tenant Protections Partial 2,273 Renter-Occupied Multi-Family Units Built
After 2/1/1995 Just Cause and Tenant Protections Partial 837 Renter-Occupied Multi-Family Units Built
Prior to 2/1/1995
Just Cause and Tenant Protections + Rent
Stabilization Full 3,688
Mobilehomes / Mobilehome Spaces
Just Cause and Tenant Protections + Rent
Stabilization
(subject to state law)
Full 391
Total 7,189
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Key Considerations
• Estimates are based on the best available data, including California Department of Finance housing unit estimates and U.S. Census American Community Survey housing data
• Final program coverage would be confirmed during program implementation through a rental registry, informed by assessor records and verification of any applicable exemptions • Current law is estimated to result in approximately 4,079 fully covered units and 3,110 partially covered units 7 Potential Impact of Costa-Hawkins Repeal
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Housing Type With Costa-Hawkins Costa-Hawkins Repeal
Full Partial Full Partial
Single-Family N/A 2,273 1,961 312
Multi-Family 3,688 837 4,343 182
Mobilehome 391 N/A 391 N/A
Subtotal 4,079 3,110 6,695 494
Total Covered Units 7,189
Key Considerations
• If Costa-Hawkins were repealed, fully covered units are estimated to increase from approximately 4,079 to 6,695 • The increase in fully covered units would increase administrative responsibilities and overall program costs 8 Fiscal Impacts
(Elections Code Section 9212(a)(1))
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 9 Fiscal Analysis Methodology
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative The fiscal analysis draws upon:
• Administrative requirements established by the proposed Ordinance • Cost and staffing data from five comparable Bay Area rent stabilization programs • Estimated number and composition of covered rental units in San Pablo • Professional experience regarding anticipated staffing, workload, and service levels 10 Peer Jurisdiction Benchmarking
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Jurisdiction Covered Units Annual Budget
(2025-26)
FTE Cost per Unit FTE per Unit
Alameda 16,494 $2,484,082 7.5 $150.61 0.00045
Richmond 17,984 $3,594,258 15 $204.24 0.00085
Berkeley 27,500 $9,017,005 29 $327.89 0.00110
East Palo Alto 2,300 $815,055 2.0 $354.37 0.00087
Average — — — $259.28 0.00081
Key Considerations
• Peer jurisdictions administer programs of varying size and complexity, resulting in a range of staffing levels and annual operating costs
• These benchmarks were used to develop staffing and cost estimates for the proposed San Pablo Program 11 Estimated Administrative Resources
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Scenario Benchmark FTE Estimated Annual Cost –
Current Law
Estimated Annual Cost –
Costa Hawkins Repeal
Low Based on Alameda's staffing and
cost per covered unit 3.2 $1,082,735 $1,218,767
Average Based on the average staffing and
costs across peer jurisdictions 5.8 $1,863,964 $2,096,788 High Based on Berkeley's staffing and cost
per covered unit 7.9 $2,357,201 $2,652,809
Key Considerations
• The range reflects differences in program design, staffing models, and service levels among peer jurisdictions • Actual staffing and budget requirements will depend on the City's implementation decisions, the final number of covered units verified during program implementation, and the scope of administrative services provided 12 The following scenarios illustrate a range of potential staffing and annual operating costs based on peer jurisdiction benchmarks:
General Plan & Housing
Element Consistency
(Elections Code Section 9212(a)(2))
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 13 General Plan & Housing Element Consistency
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Key Finding
The proposed Ordinance is generally consistent with several goals and policies in the City's 2023–2031 Housing Element related to housing affordability, housing stability, fair housing, and community outreach
Supports Housing Element Goals
• Housing Goal #2: Promote housing affordability and housing security • Housing Goal #3: Advance fair housing and equal housing opportunity • Housing Goal #6: Strengthen the City's capacity to respond to housing needs through outreach and program implementation
14 Effect on Land Use, Housing
Availability & RHNA
(Elections Code Section 9212(a)(3))
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative 15 Effect on Land Use, Housing Availability &
RHNA
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative Key Findings
• The proposed Ordinance regulates certain aspects of the rental housing market but would not directly affect land use designations, zoning regulations, or development standards • The proposed Ordinance is intended to preserve the affordability and stability of the existing housing stock rather than create new housing units and, therefore, would not directly contribute toward achieving the City's Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) • Research on the relationship between rent stabilization and future housing production is mixed, and the extent of any indirect impacts cannot be determined with certainty Key Considerations
• Under current State law, newly constructed housing is generally exempt from local rent stabilization under the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act • If Costa-Hawkins were repealed or amended, newly constructed housing could become subject to rent stabilization after the proposed 10-year exemption period, which may affect future housing development. The extent of any impacts cannot be determined with certainty 16 Next Steps
July 13, 2026 Elections Code Report - Rent Control Initiative • Review and consider the independent report prepared pursuant to California Elections Code Section 9212
• Determine the appropriate next step for the proposed Initiative Council Options
• Adopt the proposed Initiative
• Submit the proposed Initiative to the voters
17 Questions?