San Rafael City Council
December 5, 2022

From: Brooks Nguyen <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2022 5:35 PM
To: [email protected]; Housing <[email protected]> Subject: Draft Housing Element
Dear Board of Supervisors and Planning Commission:

Thank you in advance for reading this letter. My name is Brooks Nguyen and I am a Trustee for the Miller Creek School District.

The school district has conducted 2 studies to prepare for the new housing, one on demographics and one on facilities, both reports are attached. The school district is experiencing a population growth.

With the new housing the school district will outgrow all of its existing facilities by 2030.

We welcome new housing and know that we are in a housing crisis. I request that an analysis on school facilities be considered and studied along with the other municipalities as part of the planning. The facility needs of the incoming students will far exceed the facilities that we currently have. Please help us and the students by studying the school infrastructure along with the housing development plans.

Thank you for your time!
Brooks Nguyen
[email protected]
Please consider the environment before printing this email.

The information contained in this correspondence is intended only for the individual or entity named above, and may contain information that is privileged and confidential. Dissemination, distribution or copying without the prior approval of the sender is strictly prohibited. If you think that you have received this message in error, please delete it and notify the sender.

Development Impact Report
Miller Creek School District
October 18, 2022
Prepared for:

Miller Creek School District
380 Nova Albion Way
San Rafael, CA 94903
415.492.3700
www.millercreeksd.org
Prepared by:

King Consulting
2901 35th St.

Sacramento, CA 95817
916.706.3538
www.kinginc.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................................................................................................3 Conclusion and Recommendations...........................................................................................................5 Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report 2022-23 ..........................................................6 SECTION A: INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................................7 SECTION B: DISTRICT AND COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS District Enrollment Trends.............................10 Historical Enrollments..........................................................................................................................10 Historical Enrollment by Socioeconomic Status..................................................................................14 Historical Enrollment by Ethnicity .......................................................................................................15 Historical Enrollment of English Language Learners...........................................................................15 Historical Enrollment of Special Education Students..........................................................................16 Private School Trends ..............................................................................................................................18 Community Demographics......................................................................................................................19 Population Trends (2020 Decennial Census).......................................................................................19 Household Characteristics (2020 American Community Survey)........................................................21 Home Ownership and Median Home Values (2020 American Community Survey)...........................22 SECTION C: STUDENT GENERATION RATES .................................................................................................24 Student Generation Rates: New Construction ....................................................................................24 SECTION D: RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT/LAND USE & PLANNING ...........................................................25 SECTION E: SPATIAL ANALYSIS.....................................................................................................................28 Student Data........................................................................................................................................30 Student Densities.................................................................................................................................32 Attendance Matrices...............................................................................................................................32 Elementary School Matrix ...................................................................................................................32 Non-Resident Student Trends .................................................................................................................33 Non-Resident Students Enrolled at MCSD...........................................................................................33 SECTION F: ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS.....................................................................................................33 Historical and Projected Birth Data .........................................................................................................34 Student Migration Rates..........................................................................................................................39 Enrollment Projections............................................................................................................................42 Moderate Enrollment Projections...........................................................................................................43 Low Enrollment Projections.....................................................................................................................44 High Enrollment Projection .....................................................................................................................46 Impact of Residential Development to Enrollment Projections..............................................................47 Enrollment Projections by School............................................................................................................47 SECTION G: FACILITY ANALYSIS....................................................................................................................49 SECTION H: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................52 SOURCES ......................................................................................................................................................53 Page | 3
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Development Impact Report for the Miller Creek School District (MCSD) was prepared by King Consulting to update the District’s demographic and enrollment trends, the capacity of its facilities, and the potential impact of current and upcoming residential development on the District. The report contains an array of detailed information that will be of use to District staff in many areas. This Executive Summary provides the most pertinent findings as they relate to the District’s near-term enrollment trends and facility planning.

After two years of decreasing enrollments during the COVID-19 pandemic, Miller Creek School District total enrollment increased in 2022-23. Previous enrollment decrease was driven by anomalous net loss of students during the pandemic in combination with some naturally smaller cohorts entering the District who correspond with years of fewer local births. In the current year, however, MCSD saw net growth of 3.6% among the student cohorts who would be expected to return from year-to-year. This is consistent with pre-pandemic trends and indicates previous patterns are reestablishing now that the disruption of a singular health event is increasingly done.

This is critical for future projected enrollments, as MCSD had previously shown more stable enrollment than many surrounding Marin County and Bay Area school districts. Now, absent any additional students generated from residential development, MCSD enrollment is projected to grow modestly between now and 2030. This is growth is largely due to additional Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students who will enroll as the TK program grows into a new grade level for 4 year old students by 2025-26, as well as by an increasing local birth rate. More births will lead to larger cohorts entering the District in the future, and as these larger cohorts replace smaller, outgoing cohorts, total enrollment will increase.

However, after a long period with little to no residential development, MCSD is set to experience a significant increase in new housing, which will lead to additional families and students residing in the District and needing to be accommodated by MCSD schools. In addition to two projects (Los Gamos Apartments and Northgate Town Square) that are either approved or actively pursuing an environmental impact report (EIR) approval, both the City of San Rafael and County of Marin have identified numerous housing opportunity sites within the District for their Housing Element updates. While these sites’ inclusion in the Housing Elements does not guarantee that housing will be built by 2030, it does mean that zoning or other regulations may be changed to remove impediments that might formerly have existed to prevent specific proposals for these sites.

King Consulting prepared a range of baseline enrollment projections to demonstrate a range of plausible trends based on recent data points in TK and kindergarten enrollment relative to local births, plus the percent increase/decrease in enrollment from year-to-year among returning student cohorts (cohort survival). For each of these baseline projections, another projection was prepared that includes some level of residential development to assess the impact of the development to the baseline projection.

The Low enrollment projection only adds the Los Gamos Apartments and Northgate Town Square projects, and assumes no other opportunity sites would be developed by 2030. The High projection includes all identified housing opportunity sites.

While either extreme is likely, it is useful for the District to see the impact from development that could happen in a particularly robust development economy in a recently rezoned landscape that removes previous impediments to development at desirable opportunity sites. Should the District be caught flat-footed by underestimating the impact of a robust development market, the impact and constraints to facilities planning would be pronounced.

However, the Moderate enrollment projection, using carefully weighted input variables, is more likely over time to reflect the balance of recent trends, and this projection is used for planning purposes. The development added to the Moderate projection assumes some, but not all of the housing opportunity sites will develop new units before 2030. Section D of this report details all identified potential housing and which projects are included in which projections.

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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022
Based on the MCSD District-wide Moderate baseline enrollment projection, the District’s enrollment will continue to recover from the artificially low enrollments during the pandemic years as on net more families move into than out of the District. Absent development, the District’s enrollment would be expected to increase around 4% from 2022-23 levels, as additional TK students and recent higher births elevate the size of incoming cohorts. However, when the moderate level of anticipated residential development and the additional new students it will bring to the District is added to the projection, total projected enrollment will instead increase by 29%. Even with only a portion of the housing opportunity sites developing on top of the current active proposals, the projected result is an increase to TK-8 th grade enrollment of more
than 500 students from the current year’s total.
• Total MCSD enrollment is projected to increase from 1,818 in the current year to 2,341 by 2030-31 (plus 523 students, or 29%)
• TK-5
th grade enrollment is projected to increase from 1,209 to 1,587 (plus 378, or 31%). • 6
th
-8
th grade enrollment is projected to increase from 609 to 754 (plus 145 or 24%).

MCSD’s target capacity across its elementary school sites is 1,336 students, meaning that enrollment is projected to exceed capacity at the elementary schools by 2026-27. Target capacity at the middle school is 635, which leads to projected enrollment exceeding capacity by 2025-26. Absent development, the District would not have this concern, so careful assessment and planning must be undertaken. In addition to the need for classroom space (whether by building new classrooms or building new support spaces to free up existing classrooms needed for critical student support functions), the District has numerous other concerns stemming from development:
• If development is concentrated in a few large projects, the District’s well balanced attendance boundaries may need to be adjusted to assign students to a site that is best able to accommodate them. • The District has previously conducted Safe Routes to School analysis, which has identified existing upgrades that would improve student safety and the ability to walk or bike to school for families. Additional development creates the potential for more demand for safer walking and biking routes, especially large, concentrated projects relatively near their assigned school such as the Northgate Town Square project and Vallecito Elementary. • Additional development will also create additional impacts to traffic. Of particular concern would be any development assigned to Lucas Valley Elementary School, as one main thoroughfare provides access to the school and additional trips from families dropping off and picking up children will create impacts that should be carefully assessed. Development on the east side of Highway 101 should also be monitored for traffic impacts along limited transportation routes to school sites.

It will be important for the District to continue to monitor residential development, as the precise mix of projects that are proposed and move forward before 2030 will largely influence the level of enrollment growth the District will experience over the projection period. The District should also continue to monitor birth data to compare with the estimates used to project kindergarten enrollment for years 2026-27 and beyond. Finally, as the transitional kindergarten program continues to expand, it will be important to assess enrollment trends as current projections are based on one year of data since TK was reinstated at MCSD schools.

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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022
Conclusion and Recommendations
After two years of decreasing enrollments, the Miller Creek School District appears set to begin what would be, absent new residential development, a period of stable to modestly increasing enrollments. However, additional residential development will, even with the Low projection, result in an increase in enrollment for MCSD.

MCSD does not have adequate capacity across all its school sites to accommodate its Moderate projected enrollment, with projected enrollment expected to exceed target capacity at elementary schools by 2026-27 and at the middle school by 2025-26. This need for classroom space (or new student support space that can free up existing classrooms needed to provide support) is in addition to pre-existing needs for modernized or refurbished facilities and a great supply of TK and kindergarten classrooms to accommodate the growing proportion of the youngest students that will exist at elementary schools by 2025-26.

The Miller Creek School District has undertaken this study to assist in proactive planning for current and future facility needs for its student population. Based on the analyses prepared for this study, the following steps are recommended for the Miller Creek School District to meet its future facility needs. However, it is important to note that these recommendations may be constrained by broader fiscal and policy issues.

1. It is recommended that the District continue to update this study annually to monitor the District’s enrollments, update birth and grade-to-grade migration trends, and incorporate new information on residential development.

2. Augment this report with a detailed assessment on the condition of school facilities.

3. Explore how partnering with Marin County and the City of San Rafael can assist with mitigating development impacts.

4. Continue to apply for State funding in order to ensure that the District is maximizing opportunities from Federal, State, and local sources to assist in the modernization or the construction of new facilities for housing current and future students.

5. Additional recommendations may be developed for the final version of this report in conjunction with District staff.

Page | 6
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report 2022-23 This report is divided into eight sections:

A. Introduction
B. District and Community Demographics
C. Student Generation Rates
D. Residential Development/Land Use & Planning
E. Spatial Analysis
F. Enrollment Projections
G. Facility Analysis
H. Conclusion and Recommendations

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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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SECTION A: INTRODUCTION
The Miller Creek School District is located in Marin County, California. The District serves the northern portion of the City of San Rafael as well as unincorporated areas within San Rafael’s sphere of influence to the north, most notably the Lucas Valley planning area as defined by the County. Figure 1 shows the extent of the MCSD boundary. The Miller Creek School District serves grades TK-8, with a preliminary 2022-23 enrollment total of 1,818 students. Table 1 shows enrollment totals for each Miller Creek school site. It is important to note that this enrollment total does not include Non-Public School (NPS) students, as these students are not housed in MCSD facilities. The Miller Creek School District currently operates three elementary school sites and one middle school site. Figure 2 depicts the locations of these school sites within the District.

Table 1. School Sites and 2022-23 Enrollments
Elementary Schools Grade Levels 2022-23 Enrollment
Lucas Valley K-5 354
Mary E Silveira TK-5 434
Vallecito TK-5 421
Subtotal 1,209
Middle School Grade Levels 2022-23 Enrollment
Miller Creek 6-8 609
Grand Total 1,818
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Figure 1. Miller Creek School District
Figure 2. MCSD School Sites
Page |
9 Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report October 2022
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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SECTION B: DISTRICT AND COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS
District Enrollment Trends
Historical Enrollments
Historical enrollment trends are based on certified State enrollment totals for each year, minus NPS students. Since 2014- 15, Miller Creek enrollment ranged between 1,976 and 2,018 students, with its highest enrollment occurring in 2019-20.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, District enrollment decreased over two years to 1,754 total students before increasing back to 1,821 in the current year.

Figure 3 illustrates the District's total enrollment pattern since 2013-14. Figure 4 provides current year enrollments by school, while Table 2 analyzes the District’s enrollment balance across all its elementary schools. The District’s largest elementary school, Mary E Silveira, is 7.7% larger than the average size of all District elementary schools, while the smallest, Lucas Valley, is 12.2% smaller than the average size. However, Lucas Valley is the only elementary school without Transitional Kindergarten (TK) students this year.

Figure 5 illustrates annual growth/decline in student enrollment and highlights the unprecedented enrollment decrease the District experienced during the pandemic and subsequent recovery of enrollment beginning in 2022-23. A closer examination of historical enrollments by grade level demonstrates that the initial decrease in enrollment at the start of the pandemic in 2020 occurred entirely at the elementary school grades, and that in the current year, elementary school enrollment increased much more than the District as a whole, since middle school enrollment decreased (Figure 6).

Table 3 provides historical enrollments by school since 2014-15.

Figure 3. Historical Enrollments
Source: California Department of Education and MCSD.

Figure 4. 2022-23 Enrollments by School
1,934 1,995 1,985 1,976 1,981 1,982 2,018
1,854
1,754 1,818
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
13-1414-1515-1616-1717-1818-1919-2020-2121-2222-23

ENROLLMENT

SCHOOL YEAR
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Source: California Department of Education and MCSD.

Table 2. MCSD Average Elementary School Site Enrollments Average Enrollment Smallest Enrollment (Deviation) Largest Enrollment (Deviation) 403 354 (-12.2%) 434 (+7.7%)
Figure 5. Annual Growth in Student Enrollment
Source: California Department of Education and MCSD.

Figure 6. Historical Enrollments by Grade Level
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Lucas Valley ES
Vallecito ES
Mary E. Silveira ES
Miller Creek MS
2020-21 ENROLLMENT
SCHOOL
61 -10 -9
5 1
36 -164
-100
64 -200
-150
-100
-50
0 50
100
2013>20142014>20152015>20162016>20172017>20182018>20192019>20202020>20212021>2022

STUDENT ENROLLMENT INCREASE/DECREASE FROM

PREVIOUS YEAR
YEAR
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Source: California Department of Education and MCSD.

Kindergarten enrollment peaked in 2014-15. While kindergarten enrollment has been lower than this peak level in recent years, these enrollments have not exhibited a pattern of consistent decrease from year to year (Figure 7). Even during the pandemic, kindergarten enrollment was not as low as it had been in some other previous years. However, as these incoming cohorts of kindergarten students tend to become smaller than in previous years, they result in decreasing elementary enrollments, as each smaller incoming kindergarten cohort directly replaces a larger cohort moving into middle school or aging out of MCSD into high school. However, the opposite is also true should kindergarten cohorts begin increasing in size and replacing smaller outgoing cohorts. With some of the recent smaller cohorts, the potential exists for increasing enrollments should recent birth increases translate to larger kindergarten cohorts in a few years.

Transitional kindergarten (TK) began as a program to accommodate students who could no longer enroll in kindergarten when the entry cutoff was changed from December 2 to September 1 so children always begin kindergarten at age 5. The District’s enrollment of transitional kindergarten students generally increased during the time it offered the program but beginning in 2020-21 MCSD ceased offering TK classes. However, beginning in the current year, with the expansion of the TK program to enroll all California 4-year-olds and a State mandate for school districts to offer TK, MCSD again has TK students at two of its three elementary school sites. By 2025-26, all four year students will be eligible for TK and the program will have effectively become a new grade level.

Figure 7. Kindergarten and TK Enrollment
1,306 1,316 1,298 1,302 1,349 1,335 1,328
1,162 1,109 1,209
628 679 687 674 632 647 690
692
645
609
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

ENROLLMENT

SCHOOL YEAR
TK-5 6-8
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Source: California Department of Education and MCSD.

Table 3. Historical Enrollments by School
Elementary Schools Grade Levels 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Lucas Valley K-5* 387 406 419 391 336 336 354
Mary E Silveira TK-5* 422 433 440 437 418 376 434
Vallecito TK-5* 493 510 476 500 408 397 421
Elementary School Totals 1,302 1,349 1,335 1,328 1,162 1,109 1,209 Middle School Grade Levels 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Miller Creek 6-8 674 632 647 690 692 645 609
Grand Total 1,976 1,981 1,982 2,018 1,854 1,754 1,818
*All MCSD elementary schools offered TK for at least some years from 2016-17 through 2019-20. 197
237
203
173
210
178
205
193
179 183
55 25
17 38
40 87
63 43
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23

ENROLLMENT

SCHOOL YEAR
Kindergarten Transitional Kindergarten
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Historical Enrollment by Socioeconomic Status
To analyze the District's socioeconomic profile, the consultant utilized participation in the Free or Reduced Price Meals (FRPM) program as a socioeconomic indicator. Table 4 provides the number and percent of MCSD students participating in the FRPM program from 2012-13 to 2021-22. MCSD historically has lower rates of FRPM enrollment than most school districts in California, even with rates increasing generally over the last few years. While the FRPM rate in MCSD reached a high of 16.1% in 2019-20, this is still well below the State-wide rate of 57.8% in the current year. Figure 8 graphically demonstrates the change by year.

Table 4. Historical Students Enrolled in Free or Reduced Price Meals School Year Students Enrolled in Free or Reduced Price Meals Percent FRPM 2012-13 218 11.7%
2013-14 270 13.9%
2014-15 249 12.5%
2015-16 233 11.7%
2016-17 217 10.9%
2017-18 284 14.3%
2018-19 286 14.4%
2019-20 326 16.1%
2020-21 266 14.3%
2021-22 264 15.0%
Figure 8. Historical Students Enrolled in Free or Reduced-Price Meals

11.7%

13.9%

12.5%

11.7%

10.9%

14.3% 14.4%

16.1%

14.3%

15.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 FRPM ENROLLMENT %

SCHOOL YEAR
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Historical Enrollment by Ethnicity
To analyze the District's race/ethnicity profile, the 2012-2021 CalPADS enrollments by race/ethnicity were consulted.

MCSD enrollments are made up of mostly White students, with 57.9% of current enrollment coming from this category, which represents a decrease over the last ten years from 69.5%. The next highest proportions of District enrollment come from Hispanic or Latino students (21.9%), students identifying as two or more races (10%), and Asian students (7.3%). While the proportion of students identifying as two or more races and Hispanic or Latino students has increased over time, the proportion of all other groups has decreased or remained at very low levels. Figure 9 below demonstrates the race/ethnicity trends of the District from 2012-13 to the 2021-22 school year.

Figure 9. Historical Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
Historical Enrollment of English Language Learners
CalPADS enrollments of English Language Learners (ELL) were also compiled and analyzed. Table 5 contains the number of MCSD students enrolled as ELL students from 2012-13 to 2021-22, as well as a breakdown by primary language spoken.

69.5% 68.6% 68.0% 67.4% 65.9% 64.8% 63.6% 59.5% 59.2% 57.9%

13.7% 13.3% 14.4% 13.8% 14.6% 15.4% 16.3%

19.2% 20.2% 21.9%

4.3% 5.0% 5.2% 6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 9.7% 9.5% 10.0%

8.9% 9.4% 9.3% 9.6% 9.4% 9.3% 8.7% 8.0% 7.7% 7.3%

1.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%
100.0%
2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-22

POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY

SCHOOL YEAR
White Hispanic or Latino Two or More Races
Asian African American Filipino
Not Reported Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaskan Native Page | 16
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022
MCSD enrollment has been made up of between 9% and 13.2% ELL students over the last decade. The composition of the ELL student population increasingly consists of mostly Spanish-speaking students, but there is still a variety of other languages represented. Among the other languages that have been the second most common in some year are Portuguese, Russian, and French. Figure 10 graphically depicts this trend over time.

Table 5. Historical Students Enrolled as English Language Learners School Year Total Students
Enrolled as ELL Spanish Speaking All Other Languages Percent ELL of Total Enrollment 2012-13 167 94 73 9.0%
2013-14 208 108 100 10.7%
2014-15 260 139 121 13.0%
2015-16 210 115 95 10.6%
2016-17 194 122 72 9.8%
2017-18 189 113 76 9.5%
2018-19 194 116 78 9.8%
2019-20 198 135 63 9.8%
2020-21 175 125 50 9.4%
2021-22 232 176 56 13.2%
Figure 10. Historical Students Enrolled as English Language Learners Historical Enrollment of Special Education Students
Data on students classified by the State as being enrolled in Special Education classes were also collected from CalPADS.

Table 6 provides the number of MCSD students enrolled in Special Education classes from 2011-12 to 2018-19, the most recent year for which State data is available. Special Education enrollment as a percentage of total enrollment had been decreasing steadily for several years before increasing in 2018-19. Figure 11 depicts these trends in a visual format. 0 50
100
150
200
250
300
2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-212021-22

ENROLLMENT

SCHOOL YEAR
Spanish All Other Total
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Table 6. Historical Students Enrolled in Special Education Classes School Year Total Special Education Students Percent Special Education 2011-12 214 11.9%
2012-13 225 12.1%
2013-14 253 13.1%
2014-15 250 12.5%
2015-16 235 11.8%
2016-17 226 11.4%
2017-18 223 11.2%
2018-19 237 12.0%
Figure 11. Historical Students Enrolled in Special Education Classes

11.9%

12.1%

13.1%

12.5%

11.8%

11.4% 11.2%

12.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%
2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-19 FRPM ENROLLMENT %

SCHOOL YEAR
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Private School Trends
While direct public-to-private and private-to-public student transfer data is not readily available, it is possible to compare historical enrollments to determine if there is a significant correlation between public school enrollments as compared to private school enrollments.

Private school enrollments for schools located within the District were collected from the California Department of Education for years 2012-13 to 2021-22. During this time, total private school enrollments increased from 909 to 925, or

1.8%. However, elementary grade enrollment across all the private schools in the District decreased by 6.1%, which coincides with enrollment growth at MCSD elementary schools. Private enrollment of grades 6-8 increased by 20.5% during the last decade. In 2020, unlike in some other areas of the State and Marin County, Miller Creek area private schools did not see a sudden gain in students. Figure 12 shows private school enrollment by grade level.

Figure 12. Private School Enrollments by Grade for Private Schools Located within MCSD Source: California Department of Education.
641 651 632 614 601 572 578 608
568 602
268 265 269 303 308
310 311
298
309
323
2012 - 132013 - 142014 - 152015 - 162016 - 172017 - 182018 - 192019 - 202020 - 212021 - 22

ENROLLMENT

SCHOOL YEAR
K-5 6-8
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Community Demographics
The Miller Creek School District serves the northern portion of the City of San Rafael, as well as nearby unincorporated areas of Marin County including the Lucas Valley planning area. This community demographic analysis will focus on the general population residing within the MCSD boundary as shown in Figure 1 in Section A of this document. Census data from 2000 and 2010 is from decennial Census counts, while 2020 data is from the most recent Decennial census if available, and otherwise is sourced from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) estimates.

Population Trends (2020 Decennial Census)
The MCSD boundary has a total population of approximately 22,468 according to 2020 Decennial United States Census. This represents growth of 5.5% since 2010 (Figure 13).

However, it is crucial to break this overall population down by age to better understand the community. While detailed age data is not yet available for the 2020 Decennial Census, there is a breakdown of the population over and under 18 years of age. As Figure 14 demonstrates, the District’s uder-18 population did not increase along with the adult population from 2000 to 2010, but this population did increase from 2010 to 2010. The ratio of each age category is again close in 2020 to what it had been in 2000. By ethnicity, the MCSD community is predominately White (66.9%), which is consistent with historical MCSD enrollment but is also diversifying among the District’s younger population cohorts (Figure 15).

Figure 13. Population Growth 2000-2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010, 2020).

Figure 14. Population Growth by Age, 2000-2020
20,635
21,296
22,468
0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000

TOTAL POPULATION
2000 2010 2020
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010, 2020).

Figure 15. Population by Race and Ethnicity
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2020.
4,110 4,147 4,456
16,525 17,149
18,012
2000 2010 2020

TOTAL POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
YEAR
Under 18 18+

70.1%

14.3%

9.1%

1.2%

5.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%
White Hispanic or Latino Asian Any Other Race Alone Two or More Races Page | 21
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
October 2022
Household Characteristics (2020 American Community Survey) Median household income is notably higher in MCSD compared to the State as a whole (Figure 16).

Figure 16. Median Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2019.

The percent of households with children under 18 remained steady over the previous 20 years. Meanwhile, the total number of persons per household increased slightly between 2000 in 2020, after dipping in 2010 (Figures 17-18).

Figure 17. Percent of Households with Individuals Under 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2020.

Figure 18. Number of Persons per Household
$70,519
$85,600
$118,854
$47,493
$60,883
$84,907
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
2000 2010 2020
Miller Creek SD California

26.8% 26.4% 26.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%
2000 2010 2020
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2020.

Home Ownership and Median Home Values (2020 American Community Survey) Home-ownership in the District (the percent of non-vacant housing units occupied by the owner) decreased during the study period, remaining high overall compared to many other areas of the State (Figure 19). The median home value in the District of owner-occupied housing units, according to Census estimates, is currently $936,200 (Figure 20).

Figure 19. Home Ownership Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2020.

Figure 20. Median Value of Owner-Occupied Units

2.35 2.19

2.34 2.14

2.39 2.21
2 2.05

2.1 2.15

2.2 2.25

2.3 2.35

2.4 2.45
Avg HH Size Owner Occupied Avg HH Size Renter Occupied
2000 2010 2020

72.2% 70.5%

68.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%
2000 2010 2019
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2020.

The percent of owner-occupied units decreased from 2000 to 2020, while the percent of renter-occupied housing units increased. The vacancy rate for all housing units in the District remains low at 1.6% after increasing during the recession of 2010.

Figure 21. Housing Units by Occupancy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2000, 2010), U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2020. $425,200
$774,200
$936,200
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
2000 2010 2020

70.7%

27.3%

2.1%

67.3%

28.1%

4.5%

67.0%

31.5%

1.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Vacant
2000 2010 2020
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SECTION C: STUDENT GENERATION RATES
Student Generation Rates: New Construction
Student generation rates are one of the critical components of facility planning. When analyzing the impacts of future residential development, student generation rates are used to project the number of students the District can expect from planned developments. The data is used to determine if and when new school facilities will be needed and to make critical facility decisions, such as potential school assignment adjustments or the addition of new classrooms to existing sites. The housing mix of the planned development, including detached units, attached units, apartments, and affordable units, is compared to similar recently constructed housing in the District to project how many students will reside in the new development. Then, the number of years a new development will take to be completed is calculated with the projected number of students from the various housing types. This determines how many students from each grade level will be generated over the build-out of the new community.

King Consulting utilized a real estate database to locate and survey recently constructed homes within the District. These properties were cross-referenced with the 2022-23 MCSD student list to determine the number of students generated per housing unit by grade level and by housing type. Some older multi-family units were surveyed, as family turnover is higher in rental units, and it is important to see the student generation effect of more established units. Little affordable housing has been constructed within the Miller Creek School District, so this analysis uses student generation rates from the adjacent San Rafael City Schools.

A total of 9 single-family detached, 60 single-family attached, 814 multi-family, and 220 affordable units were surveyed throughout the District. The K-8 District-wide student generation rates by typology are outlined in Table 7. Student generation rates are highest in affordable housing units. Single-family attached housing, which includes condominiums and townhomes, generates students at the lowest rate.

Table 7. Student Generation Rates: New Construction
Residence Type K-5 SGR 6-8 SGR Total SGR
Single-Family Detached 0.111 0.222 0.333
Single-Family Attached 0.083 0.033 0.117
Multi-Family 0.129 0.064 0.193
Affordable 0.282 0.182 0.464
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SECTION D: RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT/LAND USE & PLANNING
It is imperative to monitor residential development, as new development will generate additional students for the school district to house and will affect where and how school facilities will be constructed as well as the fate of older schools within the District. The Miller Creek School District serves the portions of the City of San Rafael and unincorporated Marin County. Planning documents at these entities were referenced to provide information regarding current and planned residential development.

There has been very little recent large scale residential development within the District. However, the City of San Rafael recently approved a relatively large multi-family residential project (Los Gamos Apartments), and there is an active proposal preparing an environmental impact report (EIR) for a much larger project (Northgate Town Square). Additional projects have been proposed without as certain of timelines for approval and/or construction.

Both the City of San Rafael and Marin County are also in the process of updating their Housing Elements, which entails the identification of housing opportunity sites that could support development of additional housing units. Many of the opportunity sites identified in these documents are within the Miller Creek School District. While these sites’ inclusion in the Housing Elements does not guarantee that housing will be built by 2030, it does mean that zoning or other regulations may be changed to remove impediments that might formerly have existed to prevent specific proposals for these sites.

Table 8 details these projects. Each project’s name, number of proposed or potential units by type, and students that could be generated by 2030 are shown. The table also indicates a range of projections for each project. All identified development opportunity sites and current applications are included in the High projection. Only some of the opportunity sites and less certain proposals are included in the Moderate projection. The Low projection only includes the two projects with current approvals or EIR timelines. Additional details of how these projects and their impact to enrollment projections are conducted will be discussed in Section F.

Figure 22 displays the location of the projects, with coloring to indicate inclusion in the Low, Moderate, or High tier of projections.

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Table 8. City of San Rafael and Marin County Residential Projects Name Total
Units SFD SFA MF AFF Students by 2030
Added to Low Added to
Moderate
Added to
High
Los Gamos Apartments 192 169 23 43 X X X
Northgate Town
Square 1,320 1,224 96 202 X X X
Bank of America 50 50 23 X X
County Juvenile Hall 80 80 37 X X
LaPlaza Office Park 179 162 17 27 X X
Mitchell Vacant Office 20 20 4 X X
Nazareth House 97 88 9 14 X X
Northgate Office 75 75 35 X X
St. Vincent’s 680 240 440 284 X X
Talus LLC 28 28 9 X X
Carmelite Monastery 32 32 4 X
Las Gallinas Office 17 17 8 X
Lucas Valley Vacant 26 26 9 X
Margarita Plaza 93 84 9 14 X
Marinwood Plaza 100 100 46 X
Mitchell Offices 110 110 51 X
Northgate Walk 136 122 14 30 X
Professional Center
Office 30 30 14 X
Swim Club 20 18 2 3 X
Terra Linda Shopping
Center 90 90 42 X
Vacant Office 58 58 27 X
Wells Fargo 56 56 26 X
Total Added to Low 1,512 0 0 1,393 119 245
Total Added to
Moderate 2,721 268 250 1,413 790 678
Total Added to High 3,489 294 506 1,413 1,276 952
Figure 22. Miller Creek School District Residential Development Projects Page | 27
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SECTION E: SPATIAL ANALYSIS
The consultant utilized a computer mapping software, a Geographic Information System (GIS), to map and analyze the Miller Creek School District. A GIS is a collection of computer hardware, software, and geographic data that allows for the capture, storage, editing, analysis, and display of all forms of geographic information. Unlike a one-dimensional paper map, a GIS is dynamic in that it links location to information in various layers to spatially analyze complex relationships. For example, within a GIS you can efficiently analyze where students live vs. where students attend school.

Combining District-specific GIS data (students, attendance areas, land use data, etc.) with basemap data (roads, rivers, school sites, etc.) enables the District to understand data in news ways and enhance its decision-making processes. A map showing District elementary school boundaries is provided in Figure 23.

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Figure 23. MCSD Elementary School Boundaries
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Student Data
King Consulting mapped the 2022-23 student information database by a process called geocoding. The address of each individual MCSD student was matched in the MCSD GIS. This resulted in a point on the map for each student (Figure 24).

This map demonstrates the distribution of 2022-23 students (or lack thereof) in the various areas of the District.

It is useful to see the distribution of the students provided in the list throughout the District, as the proximity of students to schools with relatively more or less available capacity is a key area of interest for the District, especially in the context of potential residential development that might concentrate enrollment at one site and unbalance current attendance areas.

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Figure 24. 2022-23 Student Distribution
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Student Densities
Once the 2022-23 students were mapped, they were analyzed according to their attendance boundary:

1. The highest number of students reside in the Mary Silveira boundary.

2. The fewest number of students reside in the Lucas Valley boundary.

Attendance Matrices
An important factor in analyzing the MCSD student population is determining how each school is serving its neighborhood population. An attendance matrix is included to provide better understanding of where students reside versus where they attend school. The attendance matrix table compares the 2022-23 MCSD students by their school of residence versus their school of attendance1.
• Schools listed across the top of the table are schools of residence, and each column shows where the students who live in that boundary attend school.
• Schools listed down the left-hand side of the table are schools of attendance, and each row shows the boundary of residence for students who attend that school.

In-migration refers to students attending a school but not residing in its boundary. Out-migration refers to students leaving their school boundary to attend a different District school. Inter-district transfer students who live outside of MCSD are included in the analysis of in-migration. This detailed analysis demonstrates the District is experiencing some in-migration and out-migration across many of its school sites, particularly into Lucas Valley Elementary, where there are many fewer residents compared to the other elementary boundary areas.

Elementary School Matrix
Table 9 demonstrates the rates of elementary in-migration; from 6.9% at Vallecito Elementary School to 22.6% at Lucas Valley Elementary School (in other words, 22.6% of Lucas Valley enrollment is comprised of students not residing within the Lucas Valley boundary).

Likewise, the matrix also demonstrates the rates of elementary out-migration; from 4.9% at Lucas Valley Elementary School to 13.4% at Mary E. Silveira Elementary School (in other words, 13.4% of the elementary students residing in the Mary E.

Silveira elementary school boundary attend a school other than Mary E. Silveira).

Net migration is the difference between the number of students migrating into the school and the number of students migrating out of the school boundary. Net migration only counts students migrating into or out of one of the MCSD elementary schools without consideration of inter-district students and is meant to compare these schools to each other in terms of where MCSD students are choosing to attend. Given its high rate of in-migration and low rate of out-migration, Lucas Valley has positive net migration, while the other two schools have negative net migration.

Table 9. Elementary Attendance Matrix
Lucas
Valley
Mary E.

Silveira
Vallecito
Other
Districts
Total
Enrolled
Lucas Valley 274 41 35 4 354
1 These student totals were derived from the geocoded 2020-21 student list and therefore may not precisely match the 2020-21 MCSD enrollment data totals as reported to CDE.

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Mary E. Silveira 11 402 13 8 434
Vallecito 3 21 392 5 421
Total Residing 288 464 440 17 1,209
Outflow to other Attendance Areas 14 62 48
Inflow from other Attendance Areas 76 24 24
Inflow from Other Districts 4 8 5
% In-Migration 22.6% 7.4% 6.9%
% Out-Migration 4.9% 13.4% 10.9%
Net Migration between Attendance Areas 62 -38 -24
Non-Resident Student Trends
Non-Resident Students Enrolled at MCSD
MCSD students residing outside of the District were isolated and measured for purposes of evaluating the impact to District enrollments and District facilities. 27 students in the provided student list, representing 1.5% of all students, reside outside of the MCSD boundary. Figure 25 displays the city of residence according to the students’ provided residence address. Most of the District’s non-resident students come from Novato or portions of San Rafael served by San Rafael City Schools. It is also important to note that the District Board has currently suspended approval of any new transfers into the District.

Figure 25. 2022-23 Non-Resident Students Enrolled in MCSD by City of Residence SECTION F: ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
To effectively plan for facilities, boundary changes, or policy changes for student enrollments, school district administrators need a long term enrollment projection. King Consulting prepared enrollment projections for MCSD through the 2030-31 school year, utilizing the industry standard cohort “survival” methodology. While based on historical enrollments, the consultant adjusts the calculation for:

1. Historical and projected birth data (used to project trends in future kindergarten students);

2. The addition of students generated by residential development; 1 1
9 16
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Richmond
El Cerrito
San Rafael
Novato

NUMBER OF STUDENTS

CITY OF ADDRESS
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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3. Weighting or de-weighting anomalous years of student migration, such as that experienced by the District during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Given some continued uncertainty over COVID-19 and given that there is a wide range of development that might occur within the District before 2030, the enrollment projections prepared this year must account for a high degree of variance.

The specific assumptions that went into the Low, Moderate, and High enrollment projections based on these considerations will be explained in more detail later in this section.

Historical and Projected Birth Data
Close tracking of local births is crucial for projecting future kindergarten students. Births are the single best predictor of the number of future kindergarten students to be housed by the District. Birth data is collected for the Miller Creek School District by the California Department of Health Services using ZIP Codes2and is used to project future TK and kindergarten class sizes.

Since 2007, births in California have declined significantly (Figure 26). In 2021, Californians gave birth to 418,533 children, setting a record low since 1990 for the seventh straight year. The one-year decrease in births recorded in 2020 was the largest since 1995. Women in California continue to put off having children until later in life. Recent birth rates in California fell for mothers under 30 but rose for mothers 30 and older.

In Marin County, births declined in the late 1990s before increasing through the early 2000s (as also occurred throughout California). In 2007, County births totaled 2,818, which currently represents the last time births topped 2,800. From 2007 to 2020, Marin County births decreased by more than 26%, which slightly exceeded the rate of decline in births at the State level (Figure 27). However, in 2021 births in Marin County totaled 2,328, the highest total since 2014 and an increase of almost 12% over the total births in 2020.
2 The consultant utilized ZIP Code 94903.

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Figure 26. California Births: 1991-2021
Source: California Department of Public Health.

Figure 27. Marin County Births: 1991-2021
Source: California Department of Public Health.
609,228
518,073
566,089
418,533
0 100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 BIRTHS
YEAR
2,967
2,865 2,818
2,403
2,070
2,328
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 BIRTHS
YEAR
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Births in the Miller Creek School District have been more stable overall in the last few decades. After recording a record low number of births in 2019 with 205, the District’s births reached its highest level since 1993 with 289 births in 2021 (Figure 28). Birth totals recorded by the California Department of Public Health through August 2022 indicate the District is on pace to record around 261 births in 2022, which indicates the trend of lower births from 2015 through 2020 may be reversing. It will be critically important to track local births in the coming years to confirm these trends.

Figure 28. MCSD Births: 1991-2021
Source: California Department of Public Health.

The number of children born to parents who live in MCSD is correlated with the size of the incoming kindergarten cohort five years later. Therefore, King Consulting uses recent birth data as the most important factor when projecting future kindergarten students for MCSD to house. Figure 29 demonstrates this relationship.

Figure 29. Births Compared to Kindergarten Enrollments (Lagged 5 Years) 263
290
261
276
269
205
235
289
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 BIRTHS
YEAR
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Source: California Department of Public Health and CDE.

There is rarely a one-to-one correspondence between births and subsequent kindergarten enrollments. Table 10 and Figure 30 demonstrate the MCSD birth-to-kindergarten ratios. The ratio provides the percentage of births that result in kindergarten enrollments in the District five years later. It is a net rate because children move both into and out of the District. The ratio of MCSD births to MCSD kindergarten enrollments has remained between 0.75 and 0.85 in most years since 2007-08, including each of the last four years. However, since a noted increase in this ration in 2014, it has been gradually trending lower, with future ratios likely to remain between 0.75 and 0.8. Currently, the birth-to-kindergarten ratio is 0.77, meaning that for every 100 births in 2017, approximately 77 children enrolled in MCSD kindergarten classes five years later (in 2022).

While the District experienced some other enrollment effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic, its kindergarten enrollment compared to births during the 2020-21 and 2021-22 school years were in line with other recent years. 263 254290 253 250264 263 263 242 243261 267 241 245257 256276 266 257 241251 247269 254 242 238 237
234
205
235
289
0 50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 BIRTHS
YEAR
Births Kindergarten Enrollment (Lagged 5 Years)
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Table 10. Birth-Kindergarten and Birth-Transitional Kindergarten Ratios Birth Year Births Increase Kindergarten Year Kindergarten Enrollment
Ratio of Births to
Kindergarten
Enrollment
2002 267 2.3% 2007-08 202 0.76
2003 241 -9.7% 2008-09 213 0.88
2004 245 1.7% 2009-10 194 0.79
2005 257 4.9% 2010-11 170 0.66
2006 256 -0.4% 2011-12 195 0.76
2007 276 7.8% 2012-13 212 0.77
2008 266 -3.6% 2013-14 194 0.73
2009 257 -3.4% 2014-15 237 0.92
2010 241 -6.2% 2015-16 203 0.84
2011 251 4.1% 2016-17 173 0.69
2012 247 -1.6% 2017-18 210 0.85
2013 269 8.9% 2018-19 178 0.66
2014 254 -5.6% 2019-20 205 0.81
2015 242 -4.7% 2020-21 193 0.80
2016 238 -1.7% 2021-22 179 0.75
2017 237 -0.4% 2022-23 182 0.77
2018 234 -1.3%
2019 205 -12.4%
2020 235 14.6%
2021 289 23.0%
Figure 30. Birth-Kindergarten Ratios

0.77 0.62

0.76 0.88

0.79 0.66

0.76 0.77

0.73 0.92

0.84 0.69

0.85 0.66

0.81 0.80

0.00 0.10

0.20 0.30

0.40 0.50

0.60 0.70

0.80 0.90

1.00 2005-062006-072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-21

BIRTH RATIOS

SCHOOL YEAR
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The projected birth-to-kindergarten ratios are multiplied by the number of births each year to project future kindergarten enrollments. King Consulting anticipates the birth to kindergarten ratio in the moderate enrollment projection will continue to align with recent trends and remain between 75% and 80% of the number of births. To project kindergarten classes beyond 2026, birth for 2022 through July were extrapolated to a full year total, and for subsequent years County and local births were analyzed using trend analysis to estimate future totals.

It is important to note that 2022-23 was the first year Miller Creek School District offered Transitional Kindergarten after a two year lapse. The ratio of TK enrollment to births from four years previous was 0.18. Future TK enrollment was estimated based on an assumption of growth consistent with expanded eligibility as the program grows to a full grade level by 2025-

26. After 2025-26, TK enrollment is projected to continue growing slightly to incrementally approach each cohort’s nextyear kindergarten enrollment.

Student Migration Rates
The methods of projecting student enrollment in grades 1st– 8 th involve the use of student migration rates. A migration rate is simply how a given cohort changes in size as it progresses to the next grade level.

1. Positive migration occurs when a District gains students from one grade into the next grade the following year. For example, a cohort of 100 1st grade students becomes a cohort of 125 2nd grade students the following year. In this case, 25 new students enrolled in the District who were not enrolled the prior year3. a. Positive migration could be indicative of numerous influences, including the in-migration of families with young children to the District, private to public school transfers, new residential construction, District policy changes, school closures in adjacent Districts, etc.

2. Negative migration occurs when a District loses students from one grade into the next grade the following year.

For example, a cohort of 100 1st grade students becomes a cohort of 75 2nd grade students the following year. In this case, 25 students who were present the prior year are not enrolled in the current year. a. These losses could be indicative of numerous influences including the closure of schools, District policy changes restricting inter-district transfer students, losses to private and charter schools or other Districts, out-migration of families due to economic decline, etc.

As an example, in 2021-22 the District’s cohort of 4
th graders contained 183 students. A year later, these students became a 5 th grade cohort of 190 students. Using this example, the rate of migration is calculated in the following way:
(190-183)/183 = +3.8%
This 3.8% increase is a measure of the likelihood that a 4 th grade cohort will become larger or smaller as it advances into 5th grade the following year. Migration rates are calculated for all grade levels by year and then analyzed by the current grade level configuration to find an average rate of change. Exceptionally high or low migration numbers are usually given lower weight in the calculations, and more recent data is typically given a higher weight. However, since some recent years were 3 These are net measurements.

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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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significantly affected by COVID-19 and migration was more negative than usual across all grade levels, weighting has been adjusted to emphasize pre-COVID years more heavily.

The charts presented in Figures 31-33 demonstrate the percent growth or decline experienced by MCSD cohorts who would be expected to return from one year to the next. In Figure 31, the rate of growth for all students in grades K-7 in one year as they matriculate into grades 1-8 the following year is shown. This chart demonstrates the aberrational nature of cohort growth into the 2020 and 2021 school years, as these highly negative rates of -4.6% and -3.1% are entirely out of line with the generally positive, or at least only slightly negative rates recorded throughout the rest of the decade. The current year’s cohort growth of all students in grades 1-7 was 3.6%, slightly lower than the growth recorded in 2019 before the pandemic but still higher than any other year in the previous decade.

Figure 31. Migration Grades K-7 > Grades 1-8

2.8%
-0.2%

1.4%

2.7%
-0.6%

4.2%
-4.6%
-3.1%

3.6%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%
2013>2014 2014>2015 2015>2016 2016>2017 2017>2018 2018>2019 2019>2020 2020>2021 2021>2022

PERCENT OF STUDENTS GAINED OR LOST
YEAR FROM>TO
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A closer examination of MCSD migration by grade level grouping provides additional insight. MCSD migration at the K-5th grade levels shows the same general pattern as the District-wide analysis, but the severity of the first year of COVID impact was even more pronounced, while the current year is exactly consistent with the last pre-pandemic year (Figure 32).

Figure 32. Migration Grades K-4 > Grades 1-5
At the middle school grades, the same general pattern is present, but there was only year outside of the pandemic when cohort growth was not positive (Figure 33).

Figure 33. Migration Grades 5-7 > 6-8

4.4%
-0.1%

0.9%

2.4%
-1.2%

3.9%
-5.1%
-3.0%

3.5%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%
2013>2014 2014>2015 2015>2016 2016>2017 2017>2018 2018>2019 2019>2020 2020>2021 2021>2022

PERCENT OF STUDENTS GAINED OR LOST
YEAR FROM>TO

0.6%
-0.4%

2.1%

3.1%

0.5%

4.5%
-4.0%
-3.3%

3.7%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%
2013>2014 2014>2015 2015>2016 2016>2017 2017>2018 2018>2019 2019>2020 2020>2021 2021>2022

PERCENT OF STUDENTS GAINED OR LOST
YEAR FROM>TO
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Enrollment Projections
The benefit of tracking district demographic trends is the ability to utilize the trend data to project future enrollment.

Predicting future enrollment is an important factor affecting many school processes: long‐range planning, budgeting, staffing, and anticipating future building and capital needs. King Consulting utilized several tools to project future enrollment, including the most major factors of cohort growth, birth rates, and anticipated or potential residential construction.

The cohort survival method is the standard demographic technique for projecting enrollments. This method was utilized to project enrollments for MCSD. Using this method, the current student body is advanced one grade for each year of the projection. For example, year 2022 first graders become year 2023 second graders, and the following year’s third graders, and so on. As a cohort moves through the grades, its total population will, as demonstrated previously in this section, most likely change.

Enrollment projections were prepared by calculating births, birth-to-kindergarten ratios, birth-to-TK ratios, grade-to-grade migration rates, student generation rates, and potential residential development, along with special calculations to account for students who did not enroll in with MCSD during the pandemic but were present before and returned after. The addition of transitional kindergarten as the program expands into a new grade level by 2025-26 is also included in the enrollment projections. King Consulting calculates three distinct enrollment projections: a Low projection, a Moderate projection, and a High projection. Even outside of COVID-19 influences, there is enough variability in recent birth to kindergarten ratios and grade-to-grade migration rates to lead to a range of plausible outcomes for the District’s future enrollment over the next few years. On top of this, there is a range of certainty for residential development that may occur in the District by 2030. As previously detailed in Table 8, the Low projection includes only projects with current proposals that are highly likely to enter construction during the enrollment period, the Moderate projection also includes some housing opportunity sites, and the High projection includes all identified housing opportunity sites in the 2023-2030 housing cycle of the City of San Rafael and County of Marin.

By providing a range of baseline enrollment projections that account for the various highest and lowest input factors observed in the last few years, then adding to each baseline the impact caused by a range of assumptions around residential development activity, MCSD can plan for a range of valid possibilities that will be defined by the High and Low projections, especially in the short term when it is more likely that these more extreme factors would occur. Over the full planning period, it is recommended to use the Moderate projection, as the carefully weighted input variables are more likely to even out over time and most closely resemble the Moderate trajectory.

Individual school projections are based on the Moderate District-wide projection.

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Moderate Enrollment Projections
Table 11. MCSD Moderate Baseline Enrollment Projection
Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 53 78 106 105 110 124 133 140
K 193 179 183 181 159 182 224 202 194 202 201
1 202 194 188 187 186 163 186 229 207 198 206
2 202 194 196 185 184 183 160 183 225 203 195
3 199 200 197 195 184 183 182 159 182 224 202
4 163 183 212 195 193 182 181 180 157 180 222
5 203 159 190 213 195 193 182 182 180 158 181
6 232 200 179 199 223 205 203 191 191 189 166
7 232 228 202 178 198 221 203 201 190 189 187
8 228 217 228 197 173 193 216 198 196 185 184
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,209 1,178 1,192 1,221 1,245 1,270 1,299 1,347 6-8 692 645 609 574 594 619 622 591 577 563 537
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,782 1,772 1,811 1,842 1,836 1,847 1,862 1,885 Table 12. MCSD Moderate Enrollment Projection with Added Moderate Development Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 55 82 109 113 112 130 143 151
K 193 179 183 186 165 186 235 205 202 216 217
1 202 194 188 191 197 174 202 243 218 220 237
2 202 194 196 190 195 199 182 201 248 227 232
3 199 200 197 199 195 199 209 183 209 259 242
4 163 183 212 200 203 198 208 210 189 220 272
5 203 159 190 218 206 208 210 211 219 202 236
6 232 200 179 204 236 226 235 228 232 245 231
7 232 228 202 183 210 244 241 239 238 247 263
8 228 217 228 202 185 214 254 240 243 249 260
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,239 1,242 1,273 1,360 1,365 1,414 1,487 1,587 6-8 692 645 609 589 631 683 730 707 714 741 754
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,827 1,873 1,956 2,090 2,072 2,127 2,228 2,341 Based on the MCSD District-wide Moderate baseline enrollment projection, the District’s enrollment will continue to recover from the artificially low enrollments during the pandemic years as on net more families move into than out of the District. Absent development, the District’s enrollment would be expected to increase around 4% from 2022-23 levels, as additional TK students and recent higher births elevate the size of incoming cohorts. However, when the moderate level of Page | 44
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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anticipated residential development and the additional new students it will bring to the District is added to the projection, total projected enrollment will instead increase by 29%. Even with only a portion of the housing opportunity sites developing on top of the current active proposals, the projected result is an increase to TK-8 th grade enrollment of more
than 500 students from the current year’s total.
• Total MCSD enrollment is projected to increase from 1,818 in the current year to 2,341 by 2030-31 (plus 523 students, or 29%)
• TK-5
th grade enrollment is projected to increase from 1,209 to 1,587 (plus 378, or 31%). • 6
th
-8
th grade enrollment is projected to increase from 609 to 754 (plus 145 or 24%).

It will be important for the District to continue to monitor residential development, as the precise mix of projects that are proposed and move forward before 2030 will largely influence the level of enrollment growth the District will experience over the projection period. The District should also continue to monitor birth data to compare with the estimates used to project kindergarten enrollment for years 2026-27 and beyond. Finally, as the transitional kindergarten program continues to expand, it will be important to assess enrollment trends as current projections are based on one year of data since TK was reinstated at MCSD schools.

Low Enrollment Projections
Table 13. MCSD Low Baseline Enrollment Projection
Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 47 70 96 95 99 112 120 126
K 193 179 183 176 154 177 217 196 188 196 195
1 202 194 188 187 179 157 180 222 200 192 200
2 202 194 196 184 183 176 154 176 217 196 188
3 199 200 197 194 182 181 174 152 175 215 194
4 163 183 212 192 189 178 176 169 148 170 209
5 203 159 190 211 191 188 177 175 169 148 169
6 232 200 179 197 218 198 195 183 181 174 153
7 232 228 202 177 194 216 196 193 181 179 173
8 228 217 228 196 171 188 209 189 186 175 174
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,191 1,149 1,152 1,173 1,190 1,208 1,236 1,281 6-8 692 645 609 569 584 602 599 565 549 529 499
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,760 1,733 1,753 1,772 1,755 1,757 1,765 1,780 Page | 45
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Table 14. MCSD Low Enrollment Projection with Added Low Development Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 49 72 96 99 99 115 120 129
K 193 179 183 181 158 177 224 196 193 196 200
1 202 194 188 191 189 161 187 229 205 197 206
2 202 194 196 189 190 185 165 183 229 200 199
3 199 200 197 198 192 189 190 163 187 227 204
4 163 183 212 197 197 187 191 185 164 183 226
5 203 159 190 216 201 196 192 190 189 163 188
6 232 200 179 202 229 208 209 199 202 196 175
7 232 228 202 182 205 227 213 207 202 199 198
8 228 217 228 201 181 199 227 206 205 195 199
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,221 1,200 1,191 1,248 1,245 1,282 1,286 1,352 6-8 692 645 609 584 616 634 648 612 608 590 572
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,805 1,816 1,825 1,896 1,857 1,891 1,876 1,924 The MCSD District-wide Low enrollment projections assume lower grade-to-grade migration than the Moderate projection and smaller incoming kindergarten and TK cohorts. For the added development, only two currently proposed developments are included, with this assumption demonstrating impact if no other identified housing opportunities convert into active new housing during the current Housing Element cycle. Even with these assumptions, the Low projection with added development still shows growth of over 100 students for the Miller Creek School District by 2030. Students generated by new development in this projection accounts for all of the increased enrollment over current levels, as enrollment would be projected to decrease slightly absent development under the Low conditions.

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High Enrollment Projection
Table 15. MCSD High Baseline Enrollment Projection
Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 58 86 117 116 121 137 147 154
K 193 179 183 189 165 190 233 210 202 210 209
1 202 194 188 188 194 170 195 240 216 208 216
2 202 194 196 186 186 192 168 193 237 214 205
3 199 200 197 195 185 185 191 168 192 236 213
4 163 183 212 197 195 185 185 191 167 192 236
5 203 159 190 214 198 197 186 187 193 169 193
6 232 200 179 202 227 210 209 198 198 204 179
7 232 228 202 178 200 225 209 208 197 197 203
8 228 217 228 197 174 196 220 205 203 192 192
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,227 1,210 1,236 1,275 1,309 1,344 1,375 1,427 6-8 692 645 609 577 601 632 638 610 598 593 575
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,804 1,811 1,867 1,913 1,919 1,942 1,969 2,002 Table 16. MCSD High Enrollment Projection with Added High Enrollment Actual Projected
Grade 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 TK 0 0 43 60 90 124 126 130 145 158 171
K 193 179 183 194 171 200 247 222 213 225 231
1 202 194 188 192 205 186 219 266 240 235 253
2 202 194 196 191 196 214 198 229 273 252 254
3 199 200 197 199 196 206 227 208 239 287 274
4 163 183 212 202 206 206 220 239 218 254 309
5 203 159 190 219 209 218 222 234 251 235 278
6 232 200 179 207 240 238 250 252 262 285 276
7 232 228 202 183 212 255 256 267 265 280 312
8 228 217 228 202 186 224 268 267 275 279 300
TK-5 1,162 1,109 1,209 1,257 1,274 1,354 1,459 1,529 1,578 1,646 1,771 6-8 692 645 609 592 638 716 774 786 801 843 888
Total 1,854 1,754 1,818 1,849 1,912 2,070 2,233 2,315 2,380 2,489 2,659 The MCSD District-wide High enrollment projections assume higher grade-to-grade migration than the Moderate projection and larger incoming kindergarten and TK cohorts. All identified housing opportunities are added as development, demonstrating the impact should they all convert into active new housing during the current Housing Element cycle. While this housing outcome is unlikely, it is important that the District sees a projection of what enrollment would look like if the identified housing sites all develop as updated zoning will newly allow. Should the District be caught flat-footed by Page | 47
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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underestimating the impact of a robust development market, the impact and constraints to facilities planning would be pronounced.

With these assumptions, the High projection with added high development shows growth of over 800 students, or 46%, for the Miller Creek School District by 2030. Students generated by new development in this projection account for more than three quarters of the projected growth by 2030.

Impact of Residential Development to Enrollment Projections As previously demonstrated, planned residential development projects will add additional students for the District to house. Tables 17-19 break out the total number of projected students each year who are enrolled in the District and were generated from residential development. These totals are calculated by comparing each baseline enrollment projection (Low, Moderate, High) with its corresponding projection with added development. Please refer to Table 8 for a listing of which projects are included in each tier of development. Any additional development beyond what is shown in Table 8 would generate more students over and above the impact summarized in Tables 17-19.

Table 17. Additional Enrolled Students Due to Residential Development by Year, Moderate Grades 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31
K-5 30 64 81 140 120 144 188 240
6-8 15 37 64 108 116 137 178 216
Total 45 101 145 248 236 281 366 456
Table 18. Additional Enrolled Students Due to Residential Development by Year, Low Grades 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31
K-5 30 52 39 75 55 74 50 71
6-8 15 32 32 49 47 60 61 73
Total 45 84 71 124 102 134 111 144
Table 19. Additional Enrolled Students Due to Residential Development by Year, High Grades 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31
K-5 30 64 118 184 219 234 270 344
6-8 15 37 85 135 176 204 250 313
Total 45 101 203 319 395 438 520 657
In the Moderate enrollment projection, MCSD is projected to need to accommodate 456 additional students in 2030-31 who were generated from new (since 2023) residential development, and who would not be enrolled in the District absent that development. It will be crucial for the District to closely monitor its classroom capacity as new housing is proposed, approved, and built during the coming years.

Enrollment Projections by School
Table 20 provides enrollment projections by school. King Consulting prepared these individual school enrollment projections utilizing each school’s cohort migration trends and the percentage of kindergarten and TK students each school historically enrolls of the District-wide total. Since Lucas Valley Elementary does not currently serve TK, it is projected to add TK in an even three-way split with the other two sites beginning in 2024-25. The individual school enrollment projections assume that the rate of progression from one grade to the next will be consistent with the rates of progression Page | 48
Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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in previous years, barring obvious outliers that were appropriately weighted or removed. As they are based on the Moderate District-wide enrollment projection, the school projections assume that the same students generated by development will be added to each school depending on the attendance boundary for the project.

However, these forecasts do not take into consideration such factors as changing school programs, the availability of classrooms, the movement of students required to maintain the teacher/student ratio at all grade levels, or changes to the District’s process for assigning students to their preferred schools.

Table 20. Enrollment Projections by School, Moderate Projection Elementary Schools 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 Lucas Valley 354 371 360 391 391 391 398 407 421
Mary E Silveira 434 445 439 457 485 499 521 593 646
Vallecito 421 422 443 425 484 475 494 487 520
Middle School 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 Miller Creek 609 589 631 683 730 707 714 741 754
Grand Total 1,818 1,827 1,873 1,956 2,090 2,072 2,127 2,228 2,341 Page | 49
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SECTION G: FACILITY ANALYSIS
To determine the ability of the District's facilities to adequately serve enrollments, King Consulting obtained site maps with current utilization from the District to calculate a target facility capacity for each site. This section identifies the adequacy of the Miller Creek School District's existing facilities to accommodate the Moderate projected enrollment included added development.

Capacity is calculated based on each room’s utilization and loading assumptions based on information provided in the current District contract with the Miller Creek Educators Association. Table 21 summarizes the target loading that is used in the capacity calculations for various types of rooms across the District. Target elementary capacity is based on the largest class size that does not trigger any additional instructional assistant time. Special day classes (SDC) are loaded at the State standard for Severe special education students for target loading. It is assumed that each elementary campus will equally require a number of specialized spaces or pullout programs that are not loaded as capacity when they must be housed in a classroom-sized space due to a lack of dedicated support facilities: art, music, counseling, resource, intervention, childcare, and Imagine recreation.

Capacity at the middle school is calculated differently, as loading is more complex than a single teacher and class occupying a classroom for most of the day. Each classroom used for instruction, as well as instructional spaces for physical education classes, are assumed to be in use for five periods out of the seven period schedule. The target capacity would not require teachers to leave their classroom for prep periods, so each room can be used at its loading level for 5/7 of the day.

Table 21. MCSD Target and Maximum Loading Assumptions
Classroom Type Target Loading
TK/Kindergarten 24
Grades 1-3 24
Grades 4-5 25
Grades 6-8 25 (*5/7)
SDC/Special Education 9
Specialized Rooms 0
Table 22 identifies each site’s target capacity compared to its current-year enrollment and the highest and lowest projected enrollments (Moderate projection) through the 2030-31 school year.

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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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Table 22. Facility Capacities Compared to Current Residents and Enrollments School 2022-23
Enrollment Target Capacity Highest Projected Enrollment Lowest Projected
Enrollment
Lucas Valley 354 438 421 361
Mary E Silveira 434 461 647 439
Vallecito 421 437 520 422
Elementary School Totals 1,209 1,336 1,588 1,239
Miller Creek Middle School 609 635 754 589
As shown in Table 22, MCSD does not have adequate total capacity for projected enrollments across its elementary schools nor at the middle school. In addition, the District must consider how to house the additional transitional kindergarten students it will be required to serve as the program is expanded into an effective new grade level by 2025-26. At all three elementary school sites, future enrollment will consist proportionally of more transitional kindergarten and kindergarten students, which the State Department of Education prefers to be housed in larger rooms with internal restrooms. Every District site as currently constructed would need to house at least some TK and/or kindergarten students in smaller classrooms instead, as there are not enough specialized kindergarten classrooms to house these students in facilities that meet current CDE guidance. All TK and kindergarten students generated by residential development will add immediately to this need.

Figure 34 provides an illustration of Miller Creek School District’s Moderate projected enrollment compared to total capacity across its elementary schools. Based on this Moderate projection, as defined in Section F, MCSD’s overall target elementary capacity is not adequate to house its future enrollment beginning in 2026-27.

Figure 34. Elementary School Projected Enrollment vs. Capacities Figure 35 illustrates Miller Creek Middle School’s Moderate projected enrollment compared to total target capacity. Based on target utilization and loading, enrollment will exceed capacity by 2025-26.

Figure 35. Middle School Projected Enrollment vs. Capacities 1,209 1,239 1,242 1,273 1,360
1,365
1,414
1,487
1,587
Target Capacity: 1,336
0 200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31

ENROLLMENT/CAPACITY

SCHOOL YEAR
Moderate Projected Enrollment Target Capacity
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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609
589
631
683
730
707
714
741
754
Target Capacity: 635
0 100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31

ENROLLMENT/CAPACITY

SCHOOL YEAR
Moderate Projected Enrollment Target Capacity
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Miller Creek School District Development Impact Report
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SECTION H: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
After two years of decreasing enrollments, the Miller Creek School District appears set to begin what would be, absent new residential development, a period of stable to modestly increasing enrollments. However, additional residential development will, even with the Low projection, result in an increase in enrollment for MCSD.

MCSD does not have adequate capacity across all its school sites to accommodate its Moderate projected enrollment, with projected enrollment expected to exceed target capacity at elementary schools by 2026-27 and at the middle school by 2025-26. This need for classroom space (or new student support space that can free up existing classrooms needed to provide support) is in addition to pre-existing needs for modernized or refurbished facilities and a great supply of TK and kindergarten classrooms to accommodate the growing proportion of the youngest students that will exist at elementary schools by 2025-26.

The Miller Creek School District has undertaken this study to assist in proactive planning for current and future facility needs for its student population. Based on the analyses prepared for this study, the following steps are recommended for the Miller Creek School District to meet its future facility needs. However, it is important to note that these recommendations may be constrained by broader fiscal and policy issues.

1. It is recommended that the District continue to update this study annually to monitor the District’s enrollments, update birth and grade-to-grade migration trends, and incorporate new information on residential development.

2. Augment this report with a detailed assessment on the condition of school facilities.

3. Explore how partnering with Marin County and the City of San Rafael can assist with mitigating development impacts.

4. Continue to apply for State funding in order to ensure that the District is maximizing opportunities from Federal, State, and local sources to assist in the modernization or the construction of new facilities for housing current and future students.

5. Additional recommendations may be developed for the final version of this report in conjunction with District staff.

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SOURCES
California Basic Educational Data System. California Department of Education.

California Department of Health Services, Vital Statistics.

California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Division.

California Employment Development Department.

California State Allocation Board. Applicant Handbook, Leroy F. Greene State School Building Lease Purchase Law of 1976, revised 1986.

California State Department of Education. School Facilities Planning Division, School Site Analysis and Development, 2000.

California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit. Population and Housing Estimates for California Cities and Counties, Report E-5. Birth Rate Projections by County and Historical Birth Rates.

City of San Rafael.

CoreLogic. RealQuest.

County of Marin.

Henrio, Marie. Chief Business Official. Miller Creek School District.

King Consulting original research.

Rosales, Becky. Superintendent. Miller Creek School District.

United States Bureau of the Census.

Strategic Plan
Board Study Session
November 1, 2022
• Impact of Demographic Study and Enrollment Projections on District Facilities • Overview of Campus Facilities and Use
• Identify Major Capital Improvement Needs
• Consider Timeline for Implementation of Improvements
• Next Steps
Los Gamos
Apartments
(192 units)
Northgate
Town Square
(1,320 units)

FACILITIES STRATEGIC PLAN

PROGRESS
• Site Visits of District Facilities:
• Lucas Valley
• Mary Silveira
• Vallecito
• Miller Creek
• District Office
• Santa Margarita
• Marin Waldorf
• Program Review with Principals of District Schools
• Review of As-Built drawings
• Incorporate findings and recommendations from
Demographics Report (King Consulting 10.11.22)
• 3 Workshops with District Staff to discuss campus
needs, impacts, and potential strategies for growth
accommodation

DEMOGRAPHICS REVIEW
LUCAS VALLEY SCHOOL: EXISTING CONDITIONS
MARY E. SILVEIRA SCHOOL: EXISTING CONDITIONS
VALLECITO SCHOOL: EXISTING CONDITIONS
MILLER CREEK MIDDLE SCHOOL: EXISTING CONDITIONS
DISTRICT EXPANSION: SUMMARY CHART
Grade Expansion
Option
Expansion Scenario
1 2 3 4 5
No Change of Use TK Campus New E.S. Convert E.S. to K-8 New K-8 TK
Expand 3 E.S. x x x x
New Campus x
K-5
Expand 3 E.S. x x
New Campus x x x
Rebalance Enrollment * x x x x
6-8
Expand M.S. x x x x *
Create TK/K-8 x
Notes
* Rebalance enrollment optional
** Costs for expansion only, modernization
of unrelated facilities excluded

1. Includes program
upgrades @ existing
school sites

1. Includes program
upgrades @ existing
school sites

2. No modifications to
District Offices

1. Excludes program
upgrades @
elementary schools

2. 400 students

3. TK inclusion option

1. Convert 1
elementary school
to TK/K-8

2. Limited middle
school curriculum
options

1. 400 students
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1: NO CHANGE OF USE
Lucas Valley Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 421
Current Capacity*: 431
Planned Capacity: 455
Additional Classrooms: 0
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 2
Mary E. Silveira Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 646
Current Capacity*: 461
Planned Capacity: 655
Additional Classrooms: 9
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 6
Vallecito Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 520
Current Capacity*: 437
Planned Capacity: 534
Additional Classrooms: 2
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 2
Miller Creek Middle School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 754
Current Capacity*: 635
Planned Capacity: 755
Additional Classrooms: 6
Additional Science Labs: 2
*Capacity & Enrollment Data from King Consulting
(Moderate Growth including Moderate Development
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1 (TK-5): LUCAS VALLEY 455 STUDENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 2 TK
Classrooms
• Path of Travel
Improvements
Program Scope:
• Modular Replacement-
• Student Support Building
(9000sf):
• 2 Flex Classrooms
• Intervention Area
• RSP Classroom
• Wellness
• Restrooms
• Staff Room
• Landscaping & Site Work
Lucas Valley Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 2 24 48
K 2 24 48
1-3 9 24 216
4-5 5 25 125
SDC 2 9 18
Total 20 455
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1 (TK-5): MARY E. SILVEIRA 646 STUDENTS Expansion Scope:
• Construct 4 TK/K
classrooms
• Convert 4 Classrooms to
TK/K & Wellness
• Demolish Restrooms @
Courtyard
• Convert 1 Classroom to
Administration
• Replace MPR
• Landscaping & Site Work
including Parking, Dropoff, & Grading
Expansion Scope:
• Relocate Day Care
Portable
• Remove all portable &
modular classrooms
• Construct 2 Story
Building (18,000sf):
9 Classrooms
2 Flex Classrooms
Intervention Area
RSP Classroom
Wellness
Restrooms
Mary E. Silveira Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 4 24 96
K 4 24 96
1-3 12 24 288
4-5 7 25 175
Total 27 655
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1 (TK-5): VALLECITO 534 STUDENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Reconfigure Lunch Prep
• Modernize Flex Room for
Music & After School
• Renovate Student
Services Wings
• Reconfigure Existing
Spaces for Support
Programs & Classrooms
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 2 TK/K
Classrooms
• Construct 2 Classrooms
Program Scope:
• Site Security- fencing
& gates (perimeter &
internal circulation)
Vallecito Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 2 24 48
K 2 24 48
1-3 12 24 288
4-5 6 25 150
Total 22 534
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1 (6-8): MILLER CREEK 755 STUDENTS

CLASSROOM ADDITIONS ONLY
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 6 Classrooms
• Expand covered lunch area
• ADA improvements (Band,
Library, Site)
• New Track
• Construct 2 Science Labs
Miller Creek Planned Capacity:

Room Utilization Factor: 5/7 (.71)
Music Room Utilization Factor: 2/7 (.21)
Lab/CR Ratio: .23
Use # Load Students
CR 23 25 411
Lab 7 25 125
Art/Specialty 8 25 143
Music 3 25 21
Gym 2 25 36
SDC 3 9 19
Total 46 755
EXPANSION SCENARIO 1 (6-8): MILLER CREEK 755 STUDENTS

CLASSROOM ADDITIONS & PROGRAM IMPROVEMENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 2 story
classroom building with
13 classrooms, 2 art
rooms, & 2 science labs
• Expand covered lunch
area
• New Track
• ADA improvements
(Band, Library, Site)
Miller Creek Planned Capacity:

Room Utilization Factor: 5/7 (.71)
Music Room Utilization Factor: 2/7 (.21)
Lab/CR Ratio: .23
Use # Load Students
CR 23 25 411
Lab 7 25 125
Art/Specialty 8 25 143
Music 3 25 21
Gym 2 25 36
SDC 3 9 19
Total 46 755
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2: EARLY CHILDHOOD CENTER & REBALANCE Lucas Valley Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 421
Current Capacity*: 431
Planned Capacity: 431
Additional Classrooms: 0
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 1
Mary E. Silveira Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 646
Current Capacity*: 461
Planned Capacity: 486
Additional Classrooms: 4
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 1
Vallecito Elementary School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 520
Current Capacity*: 437
Planned Capacity: 511
Additional Classrooms: 2
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 2
*Capacity & Enrollment Data from King Consulting
(Moderate Growth including Moderate Development
Miller Creek Middle School:

Projected Enrollment (2030/31)*: 754
Current Capacity*: 635
Planned Capacity: 755
Additional Classrooms: 6
Additional Science Labs: 2
TK Campus @ District Office:

Projected TK Enrollment (2030/31)*: 151
Current Capacity*: 0
Planned Capacity: 144
Additional Classrooms: 0
Additional TK/K Classrooms: 6
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (TK-5): TK CAMPUS @ DISTRICT OFFICE District Offices:
• Area to remain
TK Campus:
• Reconstruct Site &
Buildings (12,000sf)
• 6 TK Classrooms
• Offices
• Flex Space
• Restrooms
• Play Yard
• Field Area
• Parking/Drop-off
• Utilities
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (TK-5): LUCAS VALLEY 431 STUDENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 1 K
Classroom
• Path of Travel
Improvements
Program Scope:
• Modular Replacement-
• Student Support Building
(9000sf):
• 2 Flex
Classrooms
• Intervention Area
• RSP Classroom
• Wellness
• Restrooms
• Staff Room
• Landscaping & Site Work
Lucas Valley Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 0 24 0
K 3 24 72
1-3 9 24 216
4-5 5 25 125
SDC 2 9 18
Total 19 431
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (TK-5): MARY E. SILVEIRA 486 STUDENTS Expansion Scope:
• Convert 2 Classrooms to
1 TK/K Classroom
• Demolish Restrooms @
Courtyard
• Landscaping & Site Work
including Parking, Dropoff, & Grading
Expansion Scope:
• Remove all portable &
modular Classrooms
• Construct 2 Story
Building (12,000sf):
4 Classrooms
2 Flex Classrooms
Intervention Area
RSP Classroom
Wellness
Restrooms
Mary E. Silveira Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 0 24 0
K 3 24 72
1-3 11 24 264
4-5 6 25 150
Total 20 486
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (TK-5): VALLECITO 486 STUDENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Reconfigure Lunch Prep
• Modernize Flex Room for
Music & After School
• Renovate Student
Services Wings
• Reconfigure Existing
Spaces for Support
Programs & Classrooms
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 2 TK/K
Classrooms
Program Scope:
• Site Security- fencing
& gates (perimeter &
internal circulation)
Vallecito Planned Capacity
Use # Load Students
TK 0 24 0
K 3 24 72
1-3 11 24 264
4-5 7 25 175
Total 21 511
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (6-8): MILLER CREEK 755 STUDENTS

CLASSROOM ADDITIONS ONLY
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 6 Classrooms
• Expand covered lunch
area
• New Track
• Construct 2 Science
Labs
• ADA improvements
(Band, Library, Site)
Miller Creek Planned Capacity:

Room Utilization Factor: 5/7 (.71)
Music Room Utilization Factor: 2/7 (.21)
Lab/CR Ratio: .23
Use # Load Students
CR 23 25 411
Lab 7 25 125
Art/Specialty 8 25 143
Music 3 25 21
Gym 2 25 36
SDC 3 9 19
Total 46 755
EXPANSION SCENARIO 2 (6-8): MILLER CREEK 755 STUDENTS

CLASSROOM ADDITIONS & PROGRAM IMPROVEMENTS
Expansion Scope:
• Construct 2 story
classroom building with
13 classrooms, 2 art
rooms, & 2 science labs
• Expand covered lunch
area
• New Track
• ADA improvements
(Band, Library, Site)
Miller Creek Planned Capacity:

Room Utilization Factor: 5/7 (.71)
Music Room Utilization Factor: 2/7 (.21)
Lab/CR Ratio: .23
Use # Load Students
CR 23 25 411
Lab 7 25 125
Art/Specialty 8 25 143
Music 3 25 21
Gym 2 25 36
SDC 3 9 19
Total 46 755

TIMELINE FOR CONSTRUCTION IMPROVEMENTS

NEXT STEPS
Miller Creek Facilties Needs (2022 Costs):

EXPANSION: $105M - $122M
MODERNIZATION: $109M - $121M
TOTAL: $214M - $243M
Funding Sources:
• Local Bond Measure
• Developer Fees
• State Funds
Campus Master Plans
Budget Allocation
Project Prioritization