____________________________________________________________________________________
FOR CITY CLERK ONLY
Council Meeting:
Disposition:
Agenda Item No: 4.a
Meeting Date: June 1, 2026
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Department: City Manager, Sustainability Division
Prepared by: Kate Hagemann, Climate
Adaptation and Resilience Planner
City Manager Approval: ______________
TOPIC: SEA LEVEL RISE FEASIBILITY STUDY
SUBJECT: PRESENTATION ON THE SEA LEVEL RISE FEASIBILITY STUDY RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the City Council receive a presentation on the City’s Sea Level Rise Feasibility Study.
BACKGROUND:
Today, much of the eastern portion of San Rafael is lower than high tide. A large area of the City of San Rafael was built atop historic marshes and filled land, and it has subsequently subsided (or settled) over the past several decades. Many areas continue to settle. This phenomenon has created a “bowl-shaped” area that is at risk of flooding. This area is very densely populated and has a high concentration of jobs, transportation assets, and critical facilities. According to a national risk screening tool from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), southeast San Rafael (Census Tract 06041112202) is more at risk of flooding than 99.98% of other census tracts in the country.1
Much of the shoreline around this bowl-shaped area is privately owned and lacks cohesive, professionally designed flood defense infrastructure. Currently, there is no agency or entity responsible for managing coastal flood risks. During last winter’s high tides, there was temporary tidal flooding as water levels in the bay rose and saltwater flowed over private yards, under buildings, and into the streets.
Over the past several years, multiple studies have identified the risks from flooding and subsidence. The City has led many of these. Over the past three years, the City has formally collaborated with partners to both understand the risks and ways to respond. In 2022, the City and its partners were awarded grants from the State Coastal Conservancy and Marin Community Foundation to support adaptation planning.
The grant was developed collaboratively by City staff, the County of Marin, the Multicultural Center of Marin, and Canal Alliance. This collaborative team then partnered with the University of California, Berkeley, and received additional funding from the Governor’s Office of Land Use and Climate Innovation to bolster citizen science, community engagement, and technical work. More detailed information about the project, including the community engagement, can be found on the project web page. 1 FEMA Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool, National Risk Index. Accessed 5/11/2026. Available at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/0a317e8998534c30a9b2d3861c814d42/page/RAPT2025#data_s=id%3AdataSource_16-19b281a0327-layer-140%3A8134 SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 2
This project was heavily focused on equity and community engagement, with over 150 community presentations, events, focus groups, and other engagements delivered in English and Spanish. From these, several community priorities emerged, which were presented to the City Council on March 3, 2025.
Community members shared several short-term priorities, including environmental justice, protecting existing residents and businesses, emergency preparedness, and building and rebuilding in a safer way.
Several of these were subsequently woven into the City Council’s Three-Year Strategic Plan.
Another key component of the project was a technical feasibility study of the options available to reduce flooding risks. The City hired a broad team of experts, led by Moffatt & Nichol, to study the feasibility and the implications of different adaptation options. Their work built upon prior studies, including the most recent sea level rise study in the City’s General Plan 2040, the Resilient by Design competition, and the U.S. Army Corps’ flood risk management study from 1990, among others.
ANALYSIS:
The consultant team evaluated several potential responses to the increasing risks of flooding. Many of these were drawn partially from actions recommended in prior studies. The consultants evaluated potential responses (called “alternatives”) against nine criteria, including how well they would reduce flooding, permitting complexity, housing implications, and many other factors. The consultants presented their initial work in October 2024, which can be viewed here in English and here in Spanish. In January 2026, at the conclusion of their study, the consultants presented their findings, which can be viewed here in English and here in Spanish. A more detailed, technical report for engineers is also available.
This presentation to Council will briefly review the key findings from this study, including the main implications of the adaptation alternatives. Across all alternatives, there are meaningful feasibility challenges. A longer presentation will be scheduled for late summer, to allow more time for discussion.
Next Steps
Given the feasibility concerns identified in the study, meaningfully protecting San Rafael residents, businesses, and infrastructure from flood risks will require substantial funding, consensus-building, financing, and external partnerships. Staff will work with the Sea Level Rise Subcommittee to determine the best path forward for continued consultation with the Council. In the meantime, staff continues to advance actions that are within the City’s purview, including the Strategic Goals and Objectives. This includes continuing public outreach, exploring funding and financing opportunities, and exploring the implementation of the General Plan 2040 policies related to sea-level rise.
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
Over the past four years, over 150 engagements have been conducted. These include focus groups, surveys, block parties, field trips, open houses, workshops, regular meetings of the Steering Committee and Technical Advisory Committee, and engagement with the press. It is estimated that over 5,000 people have been engaged directly through these events, and hundreds of thousands through press coverage.
FISCAL IMPACT:
There is no immediate fiscal impact to receiving this report. However, in the future, physical flood protection measures are likely to require investments on a scale beyond currently available grant sources.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Staff recommends that the City Council receive a presentation on the City’s Sea Level Rise Feasibility Study.
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 3
ATTACHMENTS:
None