San Rafael City Council
September 8, 2026

____________________________________________________________________________________

FOR CITY CLERK ONLY
Council Meeting:

Disposition:

SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Department: City Manager, Sustainability Division
Prepared by: Cory Bytof
Sustainability Program Manager
City Manager Approval: ___
TOPIC: GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY REPORT
SUBJECT: SAN RAFAEL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY AND GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION STRATEGY ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2024
RECOMMENDATION:

Staff recommends that the City Council accept the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy Annual Report for 2024.

BACKGROUND:

Each year the Sustainability Division produces an annual greenhouse gas inventory and provides a report to the City Council as part of our Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy. This includes updates on greenhouse gas reductions compared to City and State targets, as well as City actions taken corresponding to the City’s Climate Change Action Plan. This staff report provides background, legislative context, updates on climate action measures, and documentation to demonstrate San Rafael’s commitment to maintaining and implementing the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy.

State of the Climate
Significant disruptions continue to occur with greater impact due to the changing climate. Wildfires, in many cases fueled by drought conditions, continue to be more widespread and destructive around the globe. Record heat and drought conditions have also caused rivers to go dry, causing disruption to major reservoirs like Lake Powell to hit the lowest level on record and prompting governments in Europe to take drastic measures such as blowing up riverbeds to open up channels. These disruptions not only cause water shortages but, in many cases, disrupt trade, energy generation, and river transport.

On the positive side, California has more utility-scale battery storage than any other state or country and could meet one quarter of the state’s peak demand on any given day. Solar and storage combined now comprise more than 60% of the power to cover peak load (the evening surge when people come home from work and use their appliances) during hot months, replacing gas. Renewables are leading the way, not just in California; they are setting records and taking over fossil fuels in many states and around the world, including Europe, Utah, New Mexico, among others. Hyper-locally, Central Marin Sanitary Agency’s on-site renewables power 100% of their operations and facilities via their bio-digesters, using local food waste and sewage to generate energy.

California Climate Goals
The State of California has responded to growing concerns about the effects of climate change by adopting a comprehensive approach to addressing emissions in the public and private sectors with the Agenda Item No: 4.a
Meeting Date: September 8, 2026
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 2
passage of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill (AB) 32). The AB 32 Scoping Plan was developed to identify strategies for meeting AB 32 goals and was adopted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in December 2008. Among many other strategies, it encouraged local governments to reduce emissions in their jurisdictions by 15% below 2005 baseline levels by 2020.

In 2016, the State Legislature passed Senate Bill 32, which set interim targets of 40% reductions below 1990 levels by 2030, and in 2022, it passed Assembly Bill 1279 (AB 1279), the California Climate Crisis Act, which commits California to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 85% below 1990 levels and achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. CARB’s 2022 Scoping Plan lays out a path to achieve the AB 1279 targets.

City’s Climate Change Action Plan
San Rafael’s original Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) was adopted by the City Council in 2009. In 2011, the City incorporated the CCAP measures into General Plan 2020 as a Sustainability Element. A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategy was also prepared to provide technical support to the Sustainability Element. In 2017, then Councilmember Kate Colin and the City Manager’s Office convened a 20-member community working group to update the CCAP to meet the new interim 2030 State greenhouse gas reduction targets referenced above. Over 350 San Rafael residents and business representatives gave input, which resulted in San Rafael’s Climate Change Action Plan 2030 (CCAP 2030), adopted by the City Council on May 19, 2019.

In September 2021, the City Council adopted a Climate Emergency Declaration and set a new long-term greenhouse gas reduction target for San Rafael, committing the City to carbon neutrality by 2045.

San Rafael’s CCAP 2030 was developed specifically to include strategies to address the three pillars of sustainable development: environment, equity, and economy. As such, it supports four of the City’s Priority Areas in the 2025-2028 Strategic Plan: A) Economic Development and Neighborhood Vitality, B) Mobility and Infrastructure, C) Sustainability and Resilience, and G) Equity, Access, Belonging, and Opportunity for All. Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Belonging.

The CCAP 2030 has also been integrated into General Plan 2040 and serves as the City’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy. The CCAP 2030 meets the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for a “qualified” greenhouse gas reduction strategy. It commits the City to track implementation measures and emissions reductions while providing a useful streamlining tool for reviewing development and building projects. The Strategy also enabled the City to adopt the FlexPath Reach Code in 2025, which allows the City to enforce more stringent energy codes for major remodels of single-family homes and duplexes.

Without the Strategy, the City would not have been allowed to enact reach codes until 2031 due to restrictions in State legislation passed last year. Among other things, that legislation, AB 130, removed local jurisdictions’ ability to adopt these stricter energy reach codes except in cases where they have adopted greenhouse gas reduction strategies.

Councilmember Llorens Gulati is the current Sustainability Liaison to the City Council. As the Council Liaison, Councilmember Llorens Gulati meets regularly with staff and the executive leadership of Sustainable San Rafael to plan and host quarterly public CCAP implementation forums. The Liaison’s role is important in helping staff prioritize requests from the public and in shaping projects and programs for City Council action.

Greenhouse Gas Inventory
The City measures progress toward GHG reduction goals through the completion of an annual community greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory report. These reports provide the City Council with an overview of community-wide emissions and the status of City actions accomplished in that same year.

GHG emissions and reductions are calculated for various sectors, including energy, transportation, SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 3
waste, and water. This is done using a common protocol local governments use to show activity-based emissions, which primarily focus on the emissions created most directly within the geographical boundary of the City. Emissions data is typically not available for a year and a half; thus, inventories have a lag time. The last community inventory was conducted in 2025 for the 2023 calendar year. Local government emissions are included in the community inventory, though San Rafael’s local government emissions make up less than 1% of community-wide emissions.

The City partners with the Marin Climate and Energy Partnership (MCEP) to conduct the inventories and develop the reports. MCEP publishes all the results on the MCEP website, MarinClimate.org, and at MarinTracker.org so that community members can easily access the data using an interactive map. The last GHG inventory and workplan update was presented to Council on November 3, 2025.

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy
When the City adopted its first Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) in 2009, it submitted information to the Bay Area Air Quality Management District to demonstrate that it met the CEQA’s standards for a “qualified greenhouse gas reduction strategy”. These standards include the CCAP itself, measuring and tracking GHG emissions over time, establishing targets and verifiable measures to meet those targets, ensuring the targets meet or beat the statewide targets set by AB 32, and establishing a mechanism to monitor and update the strategy to meet the established goals. This strategy needs to be adopted by the governing body in a public process following environmental review. The City replicated this process in 2019 for CCAP 2030, and together with these annual reports and greenhouse gas inventories, comprises the full greenhouse gas reduction strategy.

ANALYSIS:

Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report
The 2024 Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report (Attachment 1) provides the City Council with an overview of community-wide emissions. The report provides a broad category of bestestimate community-wide emissions data for the calendar year 2024 based on publicly available data.

This data shows an overall reduction of approximately 36% of community-wide emissions since 2005 and 24% below 1990 levels. Table 1 below shows where the reductions came from.

Table 1: Change in Emissions by Sector, Community
SECTOR % CHANGE
SINCE 2005
Transportation -22%
Built Environment - Electricity -93%
Built Environment – Natural Gas -20%
Waste -40%
Water -100%
Off-Road -44%
Wastewater +12%
TOTAL -36%
Source: Data taken from Table 2, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2024 Changes from 2023 include slight reductions in emissions from transportation and natural gas use in buildings. These generally reflect the use of greener fuels, although there have also been slight reductions in consumption. For example, most emissions in San Rafael come from passenger vehicles.

About 9.2% of registered vehicles in San Rafael are now electric, and gas-powered vehicles are more fuel-efficient, resulting in fewer emissions overall. Similarly, electricity is getting less carbon-intensive, SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 4
and more of it is coming from renewable sources, resulting in fewer emissions in this sector year over year. Natural gas use is highly variable based on weather. Use went down in 2024, most likely due to it being a warmer year since less gas is typically used for heating in warmer years.

Local greenhouse gas inventories are in-boundary inventories, meaning they are an accounting of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from activities that physically occur within a specific, geographically defined area during a set time period. The value of an in-boundary, activity-based type of inventory is that it isolates emissions from local sources, providing a snapshot of sectors and activities that can be affected to some degree by local government actions and can most reliably be quantified and tracked on an annual basis. In addition, it allows for a rough aggregation of data to allow for county-wide, regional, state, and larger groupings of emissions calculations. This can be helpful in understanding Californiawide emissions or comparing them to those of the U.S. at large. One thing it does not do, however, is get at the larger set of emissions driven by consumption.

Consumption emissions include all the “upstream” or lifecycle emissions from the things individuals buy, including the mining, manufacturing, packaging, and transportation of products, which carry substantial embedded greenhouse gas emissions. A consumption-based inventory would show a very different picture of San Rafael’s emissions. It could easily triple emissions per capita due to the number of materials and products we consume, mainly from imported food and goods. In San Rafael, we have chosen to include consumption messaging – our “carbon footprint” – in our engagement rather than just rely on an in-boundary inventory. This is a primary focus of the Resilient Neighborhoods program, which works county-wide to educate residents about this and help them reduce their household carbon footprint.

In conclusion, there were slight reductions in community greenhouse gas emissions between 2023 and 2024. San Rafael met its interim goal of a 25% reduction in communitywide GHG emissions from the 2005 baseline by 2020, exceeding the State goal of 15% reduction by 2020. However, State targets set by SB 32 and the CCAP referenced above establish a new baseline of 1990 rather than 2005 for 2030 GHG reduction targets. Translating current reductions to a 1990 baseline means San Rafael had reduced emissions in 2024 by 24% since 1990. To meet the City’s 40% reduction target by 2030 and net-zero target by 2045, San Rafael will need to redouble efforts and continue to innovate, collaborate, and be at the forefront of local GHG reduction strategies. This could be made even more challenging due to projected increases in population and construction activity. The State and regional entities will be important partners if San Rafael and other municipalities are to meet their GHG reduction targets. Toward that end, the City has joined the Local Government Climate Alliance to work with other municipalities at the state level to influence key legislation related to energy and transportation, as these are the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions statewide.

Workplan Update
Many of the primary goals for the Sustainability Division can be found in the City Council’s Three-Year Strategic Plan. Though 99% of the City’s GHG emissions come from the community, it’s important for the City to “walk the talk” and reduce its share of municipal emissions in facilities and operations. This past year, many of the efforts were geared toward municipal activities. Significant infrastructure projects occurred or were completed by the Department of Public Works, which will have significant long-term benefits for GHG reductions. Below are some of the major activities that have occurred since the last Greenhouse Gas Inventory was presented to the City Council in 2025. • Completed the 2nd Street bikeway
• Completed a final draft of an update to the Citywide Bicycle Pedestrian Plan • Completed pedestrian safety improvements along Lincoln Avenue • Installed eight variable-speed electric vehicle chargers at Public Works for the City fleet • Replaced four older gas vehicles with electric vehicles in the City fleet • Completed annual report to CalRecycle for the Short-Lived Climate Pollutant law SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 5
• Expanded free bulky item collection to all multifamily properties in San Rafael • Adopted an updated FlexPath reach code for major remodels for energy efficiency and electrification
• Developed draft Equitable Climate Action Assessment and Toolkit for use across departments • Secured a Bayfront Levee project readiness grant from Marin Community Foundation • Secured additional funding to extend the Climate Justice and Engagement Manager position by six months
• Were selected to participate in Climate Resilience District Incubator • Convened sustainability staff from across the county to work on implementing items in the Electric Vehicle Acceleration Strategy and vehicle miles traveled projects contained in the City’s Strategic Plan
Together, the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and this staff report with updates on activities included in San Rafael’s Climate Change Action Plan comprise the annual Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy update.

FISCAL IMPACT:

There is no direct fiscal impact to accepting the reports. Funding for implementation of programs is generally supported through existing budget resources as well as grants and utility-sponsored programs.

Where required, supplemental funding requests for supplemental General Fund support will be contingent on separate City Council action through the budget process.

RECOMMENDED ACTION:

Staff recommends that the City Council accept the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategy Annual Report for 2024.

ATTACHMENTS:
2024 Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Report

CITY OF SAN RAFAEL

COMMUNITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
INVENTORY FOR THE YEAR 2024
June 2026
Prepared by the
Marin Climate & Energy Partnership
Attachment 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
INTRODUCTION 2
PURPOSE OF INVENTORY 2
GENERAL METHODOLOGY 2
COMMUNITY INVENTORY 4
COMMUNITY INVENTORY SUMMARY 4
PER CAPITA EMISSIONS 6
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF EMISSIONS 7
BUILT ENVIRONMENT - ELECTRICITY 7
BUILT ENVIRONMENT - NATURAL GAS 7
TRANSPORTATION 8
WASTE DISPOSAL 9
WATER USE 10
WASTEWATER 11
APPENDIX A-1
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
San Rafael publishes annual community greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates through the Marin Climate & Energy Partnership (MCEP). Annual inventories help the City to more closely monitor its progress in meeting its goal to reduce community emissions by at least 40% below 1990 emissions by 2030. The City also publishes GHG emissions inventories for municipal operations approximately every five years. Municipal emissions accounted for less than 1% of community emissions when the municipal inventory was last conducted for the year 2022.

This report reviews emissions generated from the community from 2005 through 2024, the most recent year for which data is available. The inventory shows that emissions dropped from about 495,071 metric tons carbon dioxide equivalents (MTCO2e) in 2005 to 318,207 MTCO2e in 2024, which is equivalent to 36% below the 2005 baseline and 24% below 1990 levels. The community emissions trend and targets are shown below. San Rafael needs to reduce emissions by another 65,721 MTCO2e to meet the local and State target for 2030. San Rafael adopted a Climate Emergency Resolution in 2021 that establishes a goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045 or earlier, which aligns with the State of California’s long-term goal. This is expected to be accomplished by reducing GHG emissions approximately 85% below 1990 levels and employing sequestration and/or carbon capture strategies to offset the remaining emissions. San Rafael needs to reduce GHG emissions by another 255,085 MTCO2e to meet the GHG mitigation target for 2045, as shown in Figure 1.

FIGURE 1: SAN RAFAEL GHG EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION TARGETS Recognizing the need for a collaborative approach to greenhouse gas reductions, City and county leaders launched the Marin Climate and Energy Partnership (MCEP) in 2007. The City of San Rafael is a member of MCEP and works with representatives from the County of Marin and the other Marin cities and towns to address and streamline the implementation of a variety of greenhouse gas reduction measures. Funding for this inventory was provided by the Marin County Energy Watch Partnership, which administers public goods charges collected by PG&E. Community inventories are available on the MCEP website at marinclimate.org and are used to update the Marin Sustainability Tracker.
0 100,000
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MTCO2e THE TAKEAWAY:

COMMUNITY EMISSIONS ARE
DOWN 36% SINCE 2005 AND
24% SINCE 1990
2030 Goal
2045 Mitigation
Goal

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 2

INTRODUCTION

PURPOSE OF INVENTORY
The objective of this greenhouse gas emissions inventory is to identify the sources and quantify the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions generated by the activities of the San Rafael community in 2024. This inventory provides a comparison to 2005 and estimated 1990 emissions and identifies the sectors where significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions have occurred. In some instances, previous year emissions were updated with new data and/or recalculated to ensure the same methodology was employed for all inventory years. For this inventory, onroad transportation emissions were revised due to an update in the California Air Resources Board EMFAC model, and waste emissions were updated using results from a new Marin countywide waste characterization study.

GENERAL METHODOLOGY
This inventory uses the national standard for the accounting and reporting of community-wide greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, version 1.2 (July 2019). Quantification methodologies, emission factors, and activity and source data are detailed in the appendix.

Community emissions are categorized according to seven sectors:
 Built Environment - Electricity
 Built Environment – Natural Gas
 Transportation
 Off-Road Vehicles and Equipment
 Waste
 Water
 Wastewater

CALCULATING EMISSIONS
Emissions are quantified by multiplying the measurable activity data – e.g., kilowatt hours of electricity, therms of natural gas, gallons of diesel or gasoline, etc. – by emission factors specific to the greenhouse gas-generating source.

Most emission factors are the same from year to year. Emission factors for electricity, however, change from year to year due to the specific sources that are used to produce electricity. For example, electricity that is produced from coal generates more greenhouse gases than electricity that is generated from natural gas and therefore has a higher emission factor. Electricity that is produced solely from renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, has an emission factor of zero.

This inventory calculates individual greenhouse gases – i.e., carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – and converts each greenhouse gas emission to a standard metric, known as “carbon dioxide equivalents” or CO2e, to provide an apples-to-apples comparison among the various emissions. Table 1 shows the greenhouse gases identified in this inventory and their global warming potential (GWP), a measure of the amount of warming each gas causes when compared to a similar amount of carbon dioxide over 100 years. Methane, for example, is approximately 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide over 100 years; therefore, one metric ton of methane is San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 3
equivalent to 28 metric tons of carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gas emissions are reported in this inventory as metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents, or MTCO2e.

TABLE 1: GREENHOUSE GASES
Gas Chemical
Formula Emission Source Global Warming Potential
Carbon Dioxide CO2
Combustion of natural gas, gasoline,
diesel, and other fuels 1
Methane CH4
Combustion, anaerobic decomposition
of organic waste in landfills and
wastewater
28 Nitrous Oxide N2O Combustion, wastewater treatment 265 Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014), 100-year values

TYPES OF EMISSIONS
Emissions from each of the greenhouse gases can come in a number of forms:
 Stationary or mobile combustion resulting from the on-site combustion of fuels (natural gas, diesel, gasoline, etc.) to generate heat or electricity, or to power vehicles and equipment.  Purchased electricity resulting from the generation of power from utilities outside the jurisdictional boundary.
 Fugitive emissions resulting from the unintentional release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as methane from waste decomposition.
 Process emissions from physical or chemical processing of a material, such as wastewater treatment.

UNDERSTANDING TOTALS
The totals listed in the tables and discussed in the report are a summation of emissions using available estimation methods. Each inventoried sector may have additional emissions sources associated with it that were unaccounted for due to a lack of data or robust quantification methods. For example, greenhouse gas emissions associated with air travel and the production of goods outside the community’s boundary are not included in the inventory.

Additionally, the community inventory does not include refrigerants released into the atmosphere from the use of air conditioning in cars and buildings.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 4

COMMUNITY INVENTORY

COMMUNITY INVENTORY SUMMARY
In 2005, the activities taking place by the San Rafael community resulted in approximately 495,071 metric tons of CO2e.1 In 2024, those activities resulted in approximately 318,207 metric tons of CO2e, a reduction of 36% from 2005 levels, which is equivalent to 24% below 1990 levels.

The community inventory tracks emissions in seven sectors:
• The Built Environment – Electricity sector represents emissions generated from the use of electricity in San Rafael homes and commercial, industrial, and governmental buildings and facilities. • The Built Environment – Natural Gas sector represents emissions generated from the use of natural gas in San Rafael homes and commercial, industrial, and governmental buildings and facilities. Propane used as a primary heating source is also included, although it represents less than 1% of emissions in this sector. • The Transportation sector includes tailpipe emissions from passenger vehicle trips originating and ending in San Rafael, as well as a share of tailpipe emissions generated by medium and heavy-duty vehicles traveling on Marin County roads. The sector also includes emissions from Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit buses and the SMART train as these vehicles travel within San Rafael’s boundaries. Electricity used to power electric vehicles is embedded in electricity consumption reported in the Built Environment - Electricity sector.
• The Waste sector represents fugitive methane emissions that are generated over time as organic material decomposes in the landfill. Although most methane is captured or flared off at the landfill, approximately 25% escapes into the atmosphere.
• The Off-Road sector represents emissions from the combustion of gasoline and diesel fuel from the operation of off-road vehicles and equipment used for construction and landscape maintenance. • The Water sector represents emissions from energy used to pump, treat, and convey potable water from the water source to the San Rafael water users.
• The Wastewater sector represents stationary, process, and fugitive greenhouse gases that are created during the treatment of wastewater generated by the community. Emissions created from energy used to convey and treat wastewater are included in the Built Environment sectors.

Table 2 shows how emissions in each sector have changed since 2005. The greatest reductions have occurred in the Built Environment – Electricity sector (82,447 MTCO2e), followed by the Transportation sector (64,576 MTCO2e) and the Built Environment – Natural Gas sector (18,252 MTCO2e). The likely reasons for the largest emissions decreases are described in the remainder of this report.
1 Baseline and historical emissions are recalculated in the annual inventory to integrate new data and improved calculation methodologies and to ensure consistent comparison across each year. For this reason, emission levels may differ from levels reported in previous inventories.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 5
TABLE 2: EMISSIONS SUMMARY BY SECTOR (MTCO2E), 2005 THROUGH 2024 Year
Built Environment - ElectricityBuilt Environment– Natural Gas TransportationWasteWaterWastewaterOff-RoadTotal
%
Change
from
2005
%
Change
from
19902
1990 (est.)1 420,810
2005 88,767 92,247 288,169 19,075 2,371 484 3,958 495,071 0% 2006 83,610 95,425 287,706 18,913 2,074 485 3,862 492,074 -1% 2007 111,739 92,455 285,638 17,101 2,804 488 3,741 513,965 4% 2008 112,024 93,985 287,049 14,205 2,579 490 3,505 513,837 4% 2009 101,128 92,767 281,957 12,223 2,593 492 3,208 494,368 0% 2010 76,081 93,296 270,167 12,006 1,486 496 2,935 456,466 -8% 2011 71,056 96,073 266,207 11,718 1,053 498 2,845 449,450 -9% 2012 72,706 90,344 263,907 12,149 1,136 503 2,771 443,516 -10% 2013 68,716 89,797 259,250 12,303 1,323 506 2,717 434,611 -12% 2014 61,976 76,304 254,254 12,437 1,189 517 2,673 409,349 -17% 2015 61,260 77,920 249,625 12,887 933 491 2,615 405,730 -18% 2016 49,936 81,715 246,557 15,147 692 551 2,541 397,139 -20% 2017 26,412 85,650 244,529 15,852 202 541 2,458 375,645 -24% 2018 25,961 85,625 242,978 14,054 0 539 2,350 371,507 -25% 2019 25,813 86,037 242,181 13,397 0 538 2,235 370,200 -25% -12% 2020 18,412 79,679 242,185 12,732 0 553 2,236 355,796 -28% -15% 2021 14,955 80,158 238,658 10,505 0 551 2,260 347,087 -30% -18% 2022 12,913 79,615 236,530 10,082 0 544 2,290 341,974 -31% -19% 2023 6,206 83,307 228,405 11,418 0 541 2,308 332,185 -33% -21% 2024 6,319 73,995 223,593 11,526 0 540 2,234 318,207 -36% -24% Change
from 2005 -82,447 -18,252 -64,576 -7,549 -2,371 56 -1,724 -176,864 % Change
from 2005 -93% -20% -22% -40% -100% 12% -44% -36%
1 Per California Air Resources Board guidance, 1990 levels are estimated at 15% below 2005 levels. 2 In 2019, San Rafael adopted a Climate Action Plan that established a goal to reduce emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.

This column will track that progress over time.

Figure 2 shows the relative contribution of emissions from these sectors in 2024. Transportation emissions represent the largest share of communitywide emissions (70%), while the use of natural gas and propane in the Built Environment accounts for 23% of emissions.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 6
FIGURE 2: EMISSIONS BY SECTOR, 2024

PER CAPITA EMISSIONS
Per capita emissions can be a useful metric for measuring progress in reducing greenhouse gases and for comparing one community’s emissions with neighboring cities and against regional and national averages. That said, due to differences in emission inventory methods, it can be difficult to produce directly comparable per capita emissions numbers. Per capita emission rates may be compared among Marin jurisdictions, although some jurisdictions may have higher rates due to the presence of commercial and industrial uses.

Dividing the total communitywide GHG emissions by residents yields a result of 8.8 metric tons CO2e per capita in 2005. Per capita emissions decreased 40% between 2005 and 2024, falling to 5.3 metric tons per person. Figure 3 shows the trend in per capita emissions over time. It is important to understand that this number is not the same as the carbon footprint of the average individual living in San Rafael, which would include lifecycle emissions, emissions resulting from air travel, etc.

FIGURE 3: EMISSIONS PER CAPITA
Built Environment -
Electricity
2%
Built Environment -
Natural Gas
23%
Waste
4%
Water & Wastewater
<1%
Off-Road
1% Transportation
70%

8.8 8.7 9.1 9.0 8.6

7.9 7.7 7.6 7.4

6.9 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.2 6.2

5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.3

0.0 1.0

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10.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 MTCO2e Per Person
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 7

SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF EMISSIONS
The following sections provide a year-by-year analysis of the changes in source GHG emissions in the Built Environment, Transportation, Waste, and Water sectors. Whenever possible, each section discusses the change in emissions from previous years and the likely influence of state and local programs or policies and external factors on reducing emissions.

BUILT ENVIRONMENT - ELECTRICITY
Purchased electricity consumption in homes and businesses in San Rafael decreased 1% between 2023 and 2024 and 24% between 2005 and 2024. Greenhouse gas emissions from this electricity use decreased 93% since 2005, as shown in Figure 4. This is primarily due to the lower carbon intensity of electricity. In 2024, MCE Light Green electricity came primarily from renewable (69%) and large hydroelectric (31%) sources.2 Electricity produced by PG&E came from a mix of renewable (23%), large hydroelectric (12%), nuclear (63%), and natural gas (2%) energy sources.
3 In 2024, about 20% of MCE electricity purchased by San Rafael customers was 100% renewable Deep Green electricity, including electricity purchased by the City for facilities and operations. San Rafael’s Climate Action Plan target is to reduce electricity emissions 93% below the 2005 level by 2030, which was achieved in 2024 FIGURE 4: ELECTRICITY USE AND EMISSIONS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT - NATURAL GAS
Natural gas is used in residential, commercial, and industrial buildings to provide space and water heating and to power appliances. Use of natural gas is highly variable depending on the weather conditions. This variability has led natural gas consumption in San Rafael to fluctuate from year to year, from a high of 17.9 million therms in 2011 to a low of 13.7 million therms in 2024. Reduction in energy use may also be attributed to energy efficiency programs and rebates, local green building ordinances, and State building codes. 2 MCE 2024 Power Content Label, https://www.energy.ca.gov/filebrowser/download/7276. 3 PG&E 2024 Power Content Label, https://www.energy.ca.gov/filebrowser/download/7281. Nuclear and large hydro sources are considered GHG-free.
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San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 8
Natural gas consumption decreased 11% between 2023 and 2024 and was 20% below the 2005 level in 2024. As shown in Figure 5, this decrease can partially be explained by warmer temperatures, as measured in heating degree days.4 The Climate Action Plan target is to reduce natural gas consumption and emissions 28% below the 2005 level by 2030.

FIGURE 5: NATURAL GAS USE AND HEATING DEGREE DAYS

TRANSPORTATION
Transportation activities accounted for approximately 70% of San Rafael’s emissions in 2024. According to the transportation model and annual data the City uses to calculate passenger and commercial vehicle miles, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have essentially remained the same since 2005.

On-road transportation emissions have decreased 23% since 2005 due to more fuel-efficient and alternatively fueled cars(Figure 6). As shown in Figure 7, most transportation emissions come from passenger vehicles, which accounted for 72% of transportation emissions in 2024. Marin County continues to be a leader in zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) – second only to Santa Clara County – with 23,346 ZEVs in Marin at the end of 2024, or about 11% of registered automobiles. ZEVs include battery electric cars, plug-in hybrid electric cars, hydrogen fuel cell cars, and zero-emission motorcycles. San Rafael had 5,392 ZEVs by the end of 2024, or 9.2% of registered light-duty vehicles. San Rafael’s Climate Action Plan targets 25% of passenger vehicles registered in Marin and traveling in San Rafael to be ZEVs by 2030 and a 46% reduction in transportation emissions.

While it is difficult to pinpoint exactly how each land use and transportation policy affects emissions, the City has undertaken many efforts to reduce transportation emissions. The City encourages workforce housing and has made improvements to the transportation network to make it easier for residents to bicycle, walk, and take public 4 Heating Degree Days (HDD) are a measure of how much heating is necessary given the recorded temperatures for a particular weather station for a given time period. They are computed relative to a base of 65°F. HDD values for San Rafael (Richmond weather station) were accessed through the Energy Star Portfolio Manager Degree Days Calculator, https://portfoliomanager.energystar.gov/pm/degreeDaysCalculator. 0 500
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HDD
Therms
Natural Gas Heating Degree Days
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 9
transportation. The City has also promoted electric vehicle adoption by installing chargers and providing free electricity at select municipal EV charging stations.

FIGURE 6: ON-ROAD TRANSPORTATION VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED AND EMISSIONS FIGURE 7: TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS BY VEHICLE CATEGORY, 2024 Note: Public transportation includes emissions from Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit fixed-route buses and the SMART train.

WASTE DISPOSAL
Waste generated by the community increased 1% between 2023 and 2024 and was 20% below the 2005 level by 2024, as shown in Figure 8 (based on countywide disposal data). Total landfilled waste includes alternative daily cover.
5 Emissions from waste disposal decreased 40% due to the lower organic content of landfilled waste and 5 Alternative daily cover is material other than earthen material placed on the surface of the active face of a municipal solid waste landfill at the end of each operating day to control vectors, fires, odors, blowing litter, and scavenging. 0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0 100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
MTCO2e
VMT
VMT On-Road Emissions
Passenger Vehicles
72%
Commercial Vehicles
27%
Public Transportation
1%
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 10
material used for alternative daily cover (Figure 8). The City’s Climate Action Plan targets a 74% reduction in waste emissions by 2030.

FIGURE 8: DISPOSED WASTE

WATER USE
Per capita water use declined 27% since 2005, as shown in Figure 9, based on Marin Municipal Water District (Marin Water) district-wide data. Emissions, which are based on an estimate of energy used to pump, treat, and convey water from the water source to the City limits, dropped 100% between 2005 and 2024 due to the water agencies’ use of carbon-free electricity. Marin Water purchases MCE Deep Green for its electricity needs, and the Sonoma County Water Agency, which supplies approximately 25% of Marin Water’s water, uses renewable and carbon-free sources for its electricity. Total water consumption decreased 22% since 2005; the City’s Climate Action Plan targets a 26% reduction in water consumption by 2030.

Marin Water provides rebates and programs to reduce water use. Rebates are available to replace fixtures with highefficiency clothes washers and to purchase cisterns and rain barrels. Marin Water provides free home and landscape water-use evaluations as well as free high-efficiency showerheads and faucet aerators. The City of San Rafael actively promotes water conservation and Marin Water rebates and programs to residents and businesses. 0 5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
MTCO2e
Tons
Waste Waste Emissions
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 11
FIGURE 9: PER CAPITA WATER USE
FIGURE 10: WATER USE AND EMISSIONS

WASTEWATER
Greenhouse gas emissions are created during the treatment of wastewater generated by the community. These emissions have increased 12% since 2005 as San Rafael’s population has increased.

Emissions created from energy used to convey and treat wastewater are included in the Built Environment sectors.

The Central Marin Sanitation Agency (CMSA), located in San Rafael, has two anaerobic digestersthat process primary sludge, thickened waste-activated sludge, and organic waste to produce biogas. The biogas is used to generate heat and renewable electricity via the cogeneration system. CMSA normally produces 100% of the facility’s power needs, and, at times, exports renewable energy to the grid, which is procured by MCE.

In 2023, the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District completed a Secondary Treatment Plant that expanded the treatment plant’s capacity and the recycled water facility’s capacity from 1.4 million to over 5 million gallons per day.
142 144 145 146
132 126 124 130
139
117 112
101 106 110 107
116
101 100 103 104
0 20
40 60
80 100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gallons Per Capita Per Day
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 MTCO2e
Million Gallons
Water Use Emissions
San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-1 APPENDIX: COMMUNITY INVENTORY
Community GHG Emissions Summary Table
Jurisdiction: City of San Rafael Inventory Year: 2024
Population: 59,917 (CA Department of Finance) Date Prepared: June 23, 2026 Number of Households: 23,573 (CA Department of Finance) Reporting Framework: Communitywide Activities ID
Emissions Type
Source
or
Activity
Included,
Required
Activities
Included,
Optional
Activities
Excluded
(IE, NA,
NO or NE) Notes
Emissions
(MTCO2e)

1.0 Built Environment

1.1 Use of fuel in residential and commercial stationary combustion equipment Both ● 73,995

1.2 Industrial stationary sources Source NE

1.3 Power generation in the community Source NO

1.4 Use of electricity in the community Activity ● Includes transmission and distribution losses 6,319

1.5 District heating/cooling facilities in the community Source NE

1.6 Use of district heating/cooling facilities in the community Activity NE

1.7 Industrial process emissions in the community Source NO

1.8 Refrigerant leakage in the community Source NE

2.0 Transportation and Other Mobile Sources

2.1 On-road passenger vehicles operating within the community boundary Source IE Obtained data for the preferred activity-based method instead

2.2 On-road passenger vehicles associated with community land uses Activity ● 161,147

2.3 On-road freight and service vehicles operating within the community boundary Source IE Obtained data for the preferred activity-based method instead

2.4 On-road freight and service vehicles associated with community land uses Activity ● 60,927

2.5 On-road transit vehicles associated with community land uses Activity ● Emissions calculated for transit
vehicles operating within the
community boundary
1,175

2.6 Transit rail vehicles operating within the community boundary Source ● 344 San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-2

2.7 Use of transit rail travel by the community Activity NE

2.8 Inter-city passenger rail vehicles operating within the community boundary Source NO

2.9 Freight rail vehicles operating within the community boundary Source NO

2.10 Marine vessels operating within the community boundary Source NE

2.11 Use of ferries by the community Activity NE

2.12 Off-road surface vehicles and other mobile equipment operating within the community boundary Source ● 2,234

2.13 Use of air travel by the community Activity NE

3.0 Solid Waste

3.1 Operation of solid waste disposal facilities in the community Source NE

3.2 Generation and disposal of solid waste by the community Activity ● Includes alternative daily cover 11,526

4.0 Water and Wastewater

4.1 Operation of water delivery facilities in the community Source IE Energy use is included in 1.1 and 1.4

4.2 Use of energy associated with the use of potable water by the community Activity ● 0

4.3 Use of energy associated with the generation of wastewater by the community Activity ● Energy use is included in 1.1 and 1.4

4.4 Process emissions from the operation of wastewater
treatment facilities located in the community Source NE Wastewater treatment facilities are
located in the community, but only
process emissions associated with the
generation of wastewater by the
community are reported in 4.5

4.5 Process emissions associated with the generation of wastewater by the community Activity ● 540

4.6 Use of septic systems in the community Source NE

5.0 Agriculture

5.1 Domesticated animal production Source NE

5.2 Manure decomposition and treatment Source NE

6.0 Upstream Impacts of Communitywide Activities

6.1 Upstream impacts of fuels used in stationary applications by the community Activity NE

6.2 Upstream and transmission and distribution (T&D) impacts of purchased electricity used by the community Activity IE Transmission and distribution losses are included in 1.4

6.3 Upstream impacts of fuels used by water and wastewater facilities for water used and wastewater generated within the community boundary
Activity IE

6.4 Upstream impacts of select materials (concrete, food, paper, carpets, etc.) used by the whole community. Activity NE San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-3 Legend
IE – Included Elsewhere: Emissions for this activity are estimated and presented in another category of the inventory. The category where these emissions are included should be noted in the explanation.

NE – Not Estimated: Emissions occur but have not been estimated or reported (e.g., data unavailable, effort required not justifiable).

NA – Not Applicable: The activity occurs but does not cause emissions; explanation should be provided.

NO – Not Occurring: The source or activity does not occur or exist within the community.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-4 Community Emissions Data Sources and Calculation Methodologies Sector/ID Emissions Source Source and/or Activity Data Emission Factor and Methodology

1.0 Built Environment

1.1 Stationary
Combustion
Stationary Combustion
(CO2, CH4 & N2O)
Known fuel use (meter readings by PG&E) and estimated fuel use (American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, and U.S.

Energy Information Administration Household Site Fuel
Consumption data).

Default CO2, CH4 & N2O emission factors by fuel type (U.S.

Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix C, Tables B.1 and B.3). U.S.

Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix C, Method BE.1.1 and BE.1.2.

1.4 Electricity Use
Electricity Use (CO2, CH4
& N2O)
Known electricity use (meter readings by PG&E and MCE) and estimated direct access electricity consumption.

Verified utility-specific emission factors (PG&E and MCE) and eGrid subregion default emission factors. U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix C, Method BE.2.1.

Electric Power
Transmission and
Distribution Losses
(CO2, CH4 & N2O)
Estimated electricity grid loss for the Western region from eGrid.

U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix C, Method BE.4.1.

2.0 Transportation and Other Mobile Sources

2.2 On-Road
Passenger
Vehicle
Operation
On-Road Mobile
Combustion (CO2)
Estimated passenger vehicle miles traveled associated with origin and destination land uses (Metropolitan Transportation Commission, CAPVMT Data Portal 2.0 (mtcanalytics.org)).

CO2 for on-road passenger vehicles quantified in the EMFAC2025 v.2.0.0 model. Passenger vehicle emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.1.A.

On-Road Mobile
Combustion
(CH4 & N2O)
Estimated vehicle miles traveled associated with origin and destination land uses (Metropolitan Transportation
Commission, CAPVMT Data Portal 2.0 (mtcanalytics.org).

CH4 and N2O for on-road passenger vehicles quantified in the EMFAC2025 v.2.0.0 model. Passenger vehicle emissions
calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.1.A.

2.4 On-Road
Freight and
Service Truck
Freight
Operation
On-Road Mobile
Combustion (CO2)
Estimated commercial vehicle miles traveled within the
boundary (Metropolitan Transportation Commission utilizing Plan Bay Area 2050).

CO2 for on-road commercial vehicles quantified in the
EMFAC2025 v.2.0.0 model. Emissions allocated utilizing LEHD data according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.2.A.

On-Road Mobile
Combustion
(CH4 & N2O)
Estimated commercial vehicle miles traveled within the
boundary (Metropolitan Transportation Commission utilizing Plan Bay Area 2050).

CH4 and N2O for on-road commercial vehicles quantified in the EMFAC2025 v.2.0.0 model. Emissions allocated utilizing LEHD data according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.2.A.

2.5 On-Road
Transit
Operation
On-Road Mobile
Combustion (CO2)
Estimated vehicle miles traveled within the boundary (Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit) and estimated diesel fuel efficiency for the transit fleet (Golden Gate Transit). Fuel type provided by Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit.

Renewable diesel emission factor provided by NEXGEN. U.S.

Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.4.A.

On-Road Mobile
Combustion
(CH4 & N2O)
Estimated vehicle miles traveled within the boundary (Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit) and estimated diesel fuel Renewable diesel emission factor provided by NEXGEN. U.S.

Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.4.B.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-5 efficiency for the transit fleet (Golden Gate Transit). Fuel type provided by Marin Transit and Golden Gate Transit.

2.6 Passenger Rail
Mobile Combustion
(CO2, CH4 & N2O)
Estimated train-miles by multiplying the number of train cars per day (in both directions, according to the SMART published schedule) by the railway track mileage located within the community boundary (Marin Map). Average Diesel Multiple Unit fuel efficiency provided by SMART.

U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.5.

Emission factors from Equation TR.5.2.

2.12 Off-Road
Vehicles and
Equipment
Off-Road Mobile
Combustion (CO2)
Estimated fuel use from OFFROAD v.1.0.1 for Lawn and Garden and Construction equipment. All categories are allocated by share of countywide households.

CO2 emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v.

1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.8. Emission factors provided in Table TR.1.6.

Off-Road Mobile
Combustion
(CH4 & N2O)
Estimated fuel use from OFFROAD v.1.0.1 for Lawn and Garden and Construction equipment. All categories are allocated by share of countywide households.

CH4 and N2O emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix D, Method TR.8. Emission factors provided in the Local Government Operations Protocol Table G.11 and G.14.

3.0 Solid Waste

3.2 Solid Waste
Generation
and Disposal
Fugitive Emissions from
Landfilled Waste (CH4)
Estimated landfilled tons based on reporting to CalRecycle by Marin County Solid and Hazardous Waste JPA and allocated to jurisdiction based on the share of the countywide population.

Waste characterization based on the Statewide Waste
Characterization Study (2008, 2014, 2018, and 2021), Zero Waste Marin Waste Characterization Study (2025), and
Alternative Daily Cover by Jurisdiction of Origin and Material Type as reported to CalRecycle.

Emission factors calculated utilizing U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Report of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Version

1.1, July 2013, Appendix E, Method SW.4.

4.0 Water and Wastewater

4.2 Water Supply
&
Conveyance,
Treatment
and
Distribution
Electricity Use (CO2) Water consumption data provided by Marin Water. Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) delivery amount provided by
SCWA.

Verified utility-specific emission factors (PG&E, MCE, and SCWA).

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.14.

Electricity Use
(CH4 & N2O)
Water consumption data provided by Marin Water. Electricity consumption data provided by MMWD.
eGrid subregion default emission factors. Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.14.

4.5 Treatment of
Wastewater
Stationary Emissions
from Combustion of
Digester Gas
(CH4)
Known amount of digester gas produced per day and known percent of methane in digester gas provided by the Central Marin Sanitation Agency. Known amount of digester gas
produced per day (2016) and known percent of methane in digester gas (2017) provided by Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District.

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.1.a.

San Rafael Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Appendix A-6 Stationary Emissions
from Combustion of
Digester Gas
(N2O)
Known amount of digester gas produced per day and known percent of methane in digester gas provided by the Central Marin Sanitation Agency. Known amount of digester gas
produced per day (2016) and known percent of methane in digester gas (2017) provided by Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District.

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.2.a.

Process Emissions from
Wastewater Treatment
Plant without
Nitrification or
Denitrification
The estimated population served by the wastewater treatment plant is provided by the Central Marin Sanitation Agency.

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.8.

Process Emissions from
Wastewater Treatment
Plant with Nitrification or
Denitrification
Estimated population served by wastewater treatment plant provided by Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District (2010 data).

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.7.

Fugitive Emissions from
Effluent Discharge
(N2O)
The estimated population served by the wastewater treatment plant is provided by the Central Marin Sanitation Agency.

Assumed significant industrial or commercial input.

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.12(alt).

Fugitive Emissions from
Effluent Discharge
(N2O)
The estimated population served by the wastewater treatment plant is provided by the Las Gallinas Valley Sanitary District.

Assumed no significant industrial or commercial input.

Emissions calculated according to U.S. Community Protocol v. 1.1, Appendix F, Method WW.12.