____________________________________________________________________________________
FOR CITY CLERK ONLY
Council Meeting:
Disposition:
Agenda Item No: 3.c
Meeting Date: October 5, 2026
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT
Department: City Manager’s Office & Fire
Prepared by: Kate Hagemann, Climate
Adaptation and Resilience Planner
Quinn Gardner, Deputy Director of Emergency
Management
Angela Robinson Piñon, Assistant City Manager
City Manager Approval: ______________
TOPIC: FLOODING RISKS, PREPARING FOR EL NIÑO, AND EMERGENCY DECLARATION SUBJECT: PRESENTATION ON FLOOD RISK, PREPAREDNESS, AND SEA LEVEL RISE;
RESOLUTION PROCLAIMING THE EXISTENCE OF A LOCAL EMERGENCY IN THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL DUE TO THE PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM EL NIÑO DURING WINTER 2026-2027 AND AUTHORIZING NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR
AND RESPOND TO THE EMERGENCY, AND AUTHORIZING A SUPPLEMENTAL FY 2026-27 BUDGET APPROPRIATION OF $500,000 FROM THE GENERAL FUND
EMERGENCY RESERVE FOR STORM PREPARATION AND RESPONSE
RECOMMENDATION:
Staff recommends that the City Council:
1. Receive a presentation regarding existing flood risks and sea level rise in San Rafael and the City’s preparations for the approaching 2026–2027 El Niño winter season;
2. Adopt a resolution proclaiming the existence of a local emergency in the City of San Rafael due to the threatened conditions associated with the developing 2026–2027 El Niño event and authorizing necessary actions to prepare for and respond to severe winter weather; and
3. Authorize a supplemental fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve for necessary storm preparation and response activities.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
California is preparing for a strong El Niño during the 2026–2027 winter season, which could bring significant rainfall, flooding, high winds, and other storm-related impacts. In response to the Governor’s September 21, 2026, State of Emergency proclamation, City staff is taking proactive steps to prepare for potential impacts in San Rafael, including flooding in low-lying areas. Staff recommends that the City Council proclaim a local emergency to facilitate timely preparation and response and authorize $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve for necessary storm-related equipment, supplies, services, and other preparedness and response activities.
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 2
BACKGROUND:
Sea Level Rise and Flooding Risks
A large portion of San Rafael is at risk of flooding in any given year because much of the land has gradually subsided (or settled) and is now below the level of the Bay or just slightly above. Much of the shoreline around this subsided, bowl-shaped area is privately owned and lacks cohesive, professionally designed flood defense infrastructure. If the tide is high, rain is heavy, and/or infrastructure is compromised, then some level of flooding can be expected.
Although such a storm is rare, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has mapped areas vulnerable to flooding in a severe (1% chance) storm. This area encompasses much of San Rafael’s business centers, transportation assets, and neighborhoods. This area is very densely populated and, according to FEMA’s National Risk Index, southeast San Rafael (Census Tract 06041112202) is more at risk of flooding than 99.98% of other census tracts in the country.1
Over the past several years, multiple studies have identified the risks from flooding and subsidence. The City has led many studies and formally collaborated with partners to understand how to respond. More information about these projects can be found on the adaptation web page. Over the last several years, the City has hosted more than 100 community engagements that surfaced several community priorities, which it presented to the City Council on March 3, 2025. Community members’ short-term priorities included: emergency preparedness, building and rebuilding more safely, environmental justice, and protecting existing residents and businesses. Several of these were woven into the City Council’s ThreeYear Strategic Plan.
Another component of the project was a technical feasibility study of the options to reduce flooding risks.
The consultant team evaluated potential responses against nine criteria, including how well they would reduce flooding, costs, housing implications, and many other factors. Their final presentation can be viewed here in English and here in Spanish. A high-level summary of the feasibility of different options was presented to the City Council on June 1, 2026.
El Niño Events
Historically, El Niño events have significantly altered California weather; they deepen and shift the Pacific jet stream southward, increasing the likelihood of intense atmospheric rivers, high precipitation, elevated flood risk, and elevated landslide potential. With anticipated very strong El Niño conditions, flooding risk is higher this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, in its September 10, 2026, diagnostic report, found that the El Niño event is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–2027. In addition, the Climate Prediction Center projected a 75 percent chance that the event will reach historic strength during the October through December 2026 season, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, and exceeding the strength of all prior El Niño events in the historical record beginning in 1950. This reflects an increase from the 69 percent probability in the Climate Prediction Center’s August 13, 2026, diagnostic report, which is the figure cited in the Governor’s proclamation (Attachment 2).
1 FEMA Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool, National Risk Index. Accessed 5/11/2026. Available at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/0a317e8998534c30a9b2d3861c814d42/page/RAPT2025#data_s=id%3AdataSource_16-19b281a0327-layer-140%3A8134 SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 3
During last winter’s high tides, temporary tidal flooding occurred as water levels in the bay rose and saltwater flowed over private yards, under buildings, and into the streets. El Niño is currently causing a small temporary increase in water levels. High tides are again expected this winter around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and mid-January. It is possible that flooding could be more severe than what has been observed in previous years. When heavy rain coincides with high tides, there is an increased risk of flooding.
The risk associated with the upcoming winter is not limited to flooding. Severe storms may also result in downed trees, landslides, debris flows, road closures, power outages, damaged public facilities and infrastructure, and other conditions requiring an emergency response.
Governor’s State of Emergency Declaration for El Niño
On September 21, 2026, Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a statewide State of Emergency (Attachment 2) due to the developing El Niño event. The Governor’s proclamation cites forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicating a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026– 2027 and the potential for the event to reach historic strength.
The Governor’s proclamation recognizes the potential for severe storms, flooding, coastal flooding, erosion, mud and debris flows, landslides, high winds, power outages, road closures, and damage to public and private infrastructure. The proclamation further notes that elevated coastal water levels, when combined with high tides, large waves, and coastal storms, can increase the risk of coastal flooding and transportation and infrastructure impacts.
The State’s emergency declaration is intended to facilitate early preparation rather than waiting until significant storms occur. Among other actions, the proclamation directs state agencies to coordinate with local governments, pre-position personnel and flood-fighting resources, expedite certain permitting and technical assistance, and prepare equipment and supplies such as sandbags, plastic sheeting, rock materials, pumps, traffic-control devices, and emergency communications equipment.
ANALYSIS:
Informational Presentation Overview
This informational presentation will review flood risks, emergency preparedness work for this wet season, and a progress update on sea level rise work. Emergency preparedness has been and remains a high priority for the City, and staff will share updates on recent progress. Additionally, staff will present potential next steps on sea level rise adaptation work, including plans to participate in a Countywide Regional Shoreline Adaptation Plan.
City Preparations for El Niño and Potential Flooding
The City has already initiated preparedness activities for the 2026–2027 winter season, including enhanced interdepartmental coordination, weather monitoring, emergency communications planning, and coordination with local partners. Continued preparation will strengthen the City's ability to protect life and property, maintain essential services, mitigate storm-related impacts, and respond quickly to changing conditions. The City’s approach emphasizes actions that can be taken before storms arrive to reduce risks, improve response capacity, and protect residents, businesses, public infrastructure, and essential City services. Examples of preparations underway or planned include, but are not limited to:
• Inspecting and clearing storm drains;
• Staging and distribution of sandbags;
• Tabletop exercises to develop and train staff on emergency response; SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 4
• Reviewing emergency contracts and identifying contractors and equipment that may be needed on short notice;
• Coordinating Public Works, Fire, Police, Emergency Management, Parking, and other City operations;
• Coordinating with Marin County, neighboring jurisdictions, utilities, transportation agencies, and other regional and state partners;
• Reviewing Emergency Operations Center staffing and departmental emergency response procedures;
• Preparing public information regarding flood preparedness, sandbag locations, emergency alerts, road closures, evacuation preparedness, and other storm-related information; and • Conducting targeted outreach to populations and neighborhoods that may experience disproportionate impacts or barriers to receiving emergency information.
Resolution Proclaiming a Local Emergency Due to El Niño and Winter Storms The anticipated 2026–2027 El Niño and winter storm season could bring impacts beyond those experienced during last winter’s King Tides. Depending on the timing and severity of individual storm events, the City may experience repeated periods of heavy rainfall, flooding, erosion, transportation disruptions, power outages, damage to homes and critical infrastructure, and interruptions to essential services. Vulnerable residents and communities may experience disproportionate impacts from flooding, power outages, transportation disruptions, or interruptions to essential services.
Title 7 of the San Rafael Municipal Code (SRMC) establishes the City’s emergency services organization and authorizes responses to actual or threatened emergencies. Section 7.04.020 defines an emergency to include the actual or threatened existence of conditions of extreme peril to persons and property caused by conditions including floods, storms, and landslides when those conditions are or are likely to exceed the resources of the City and require assistance from other political subdivisions. The SRMC incorporates the definitions contained in the California Emergency Services Act.
Under Section 7.12.010, the City Manager serves as the City’s Director of Emergency Services. During a proclaimed emergency, the Director has authority under Section 7.12.020 to direct and coordinate the City’s emergency organization; obtain necessary supplies and equipment; requisition personnel and materials; and exercise other emergency powers authorized by law, City Council resolution, or the City’s Emergency Operations Plan. The accompanying resolution also vests these powers in the Assistant Director of Emergency Services. In addition, under Section 2.55.100 (B), emergency purchases and contracts may be exempt from competitive bidding under a declared emergency.
Although significant winter storms have not yet occurred, the threat presented by the developing El Niño is sufficiently imminent to warrant advance action. The Governor has similarly determined that conditions of extreme peril exist because of the developing event and has proclaimed a statewide emergency specifically to enable state and local agencies to prepare before severe storms arrive.
Staff therefore recommends that the City Council proclaim the existence of a local emergency based on the threatened conditions associated with the developing El Niño and authorize the City Manager, acting as Director of Emergency Services, to take actions reasonably necessary to prepare for and respond to the emergency, consistent with the SRMC, the City’s Emergency Operations Plan, applicable state law, and the accompanying resolution.
The proclamation supports the City's ability to rapidly identify, procure, stage, and pre-position equipment, supplies, materials, services, personnel, and other resources; enter into necessary agreements and contracts; coordinate preparedness and mitigation activities; and work with neighboring jurisdictions, regional agencies, Marin County, state and federal agencies, utility providers, transportation agencies, SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 5
and other public and private partners. These authorities will allow the City to respond more quickly as conditions develop and help protect life, property, critical infrastructure, and essential City services.
The resolution also exempts Public Works contracts and other City contracts related to preparation for and response to the El Niño event from otherwise applicable bidding requirements, pursuant to SRMC Section 11.50.080, as deemed necessary by the Director of Emergency Services.
The City will continue to monitor conditions and adjust preparedness and operational measures as conditions warrant. The local emergency will remain in effect subject to the review requirements of applicable State law and the SRMC, which require the City Council to review the need for continuing the local emergency at least once every 60 days until it is terminated. The City will terminate it at the earliest possible date when conditions warrant.
Emergency Reserve Funding
In June 2024, the City Council updated the City’s General Fund Reserve Policy. The Policy establishes a minimum General Fund Emergency and Cash Flow Reserve equal to 15 percent of General Fund operating expenditures, consisting of a 5 percent Economic Uncertainty Reserve and a 10 percent Emergency Reserve. The Emergency Reserve is specifically designated to mitigate costs associated with unforeseen emergencies and natural disasters.
The Policy provides that reserve funds may be expended when the City Council determines by resolution that their use is consistent with the purpose and intent of the reserve policy. It further states the Council’s intent that reserves generally be used for unanticipated, non-recurring needs rather than ongoing operating expenditures.
Staff recommends that the City Council authorize a supplemental FY2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve to support immediate preparedness and response activities associated with the 2026–2027 El Niño event. Potential expenditures could include, but would not necessarily be limited to:
• Temporary pumps, generators, hoses, barriers, sandbags, and other flood-control materials; • Emergency equipment rental;
• Emergency drainage, vegetation, debris removal, or maintenance work; • Temporary flood-control improvements;
• Emergency contractor services;
• Supplies and equipment necessary to protect City staff, facilities, and infrastructure; • Traffic-control and road-closure equipment;
• Emergency communications and public information;
• Staff overtime and other extraordinary personnel costs, where appropriate and eligible; • Emergency sheltering or other community-support activities, if necessary; and • Other unanticipated expenditures directly related to preparing for or responding to severe winter weather.
The requested authorization would allow the City to act quickly as conditions and forecasts evolve without returning to the City Council for individual expenditures within the $500,000 authorization. Staff would track expenditures separately to support financial reporting and any potential reimbursement requests from state or federal agencies.
The City of Sausalito recently authorized $250,000 in Emergency Reserve Policy funding for expedited flood improvements in the Gate 5 Road area as part of its preparations for anticipated El Niño and King Tide conditions, and other Marin County jurisdictions are expected to take similar action.
SAN RAFAEL CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT / Page: 6
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT:
Sea Level Rise and Flooding Risks
Over the past four years, more than 100 engagements on sea level rise have been conducted. It is estimated that over 5,000 people have been engaged directly through these events.
El Niño and Emergency Preparedness
The City will conduct proactive public outreach throughout the winter season to provide residents and businesses with timely information regarding storm preparedness, flood risks, emergency alerts, sandbag availability, road closures, and other emergency information.
Communications will be coordinated across City departments and, where appropriate, with Marin County and other regional partners. Consistent with the City’s language access practices, emergency preparedness and response information will be made available in Spanish, with particular attention to reaching residents who may face language, disability, transportation, technology, or other barriers to receiving emergency information.
Most recently, on September 26, 2026, City staff participated in the Canal Community Fair, sponsored by the Canal Alliance, which provided information about local community resources and emergency preparedness in the Canal neighborhood. The City will post information about additional events and engagement opportunities on its website and social media accounts.
FISCAL IMPACT:
Sea Level Rise and Flooding Risks
There is no immediate fiscal impact to receiving this report. However, future physical flood protection measures are likely to require investments on a scale beyond currently available grant sources.
El Niño Preparedness and Response
The recommended action would authorize a supplemental FY 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve for preparation and response activities associated with the 2026–2027 El Niño event.
The City’s General Fund Reserve Policy establishes the Emergency Reserve at 10 percent of General Fund operating expenditures. Specifically, it authorizes its use for unforeseen emergencies and natural disasters, subject to City Council approval by resolution. The current Emergency Reserve balance (as of June 30, 2026) is approximately $10.8 million. Consistent with the General Fund Reserve Policy, any funds drawn from the Emergency Reserve Fund would be required to be restored through the subsequent fiscal year’s budget process.
Only actual costs incurred would be charged against the authorization. Staff will separately account for eligible emergency-related expenditures and seek reimbursement from state, federal, or other sources to the extent such funding becomes available.
OPTIONS:
The City Council has the following options to consider:
1. Adopt the recommended actions. Receive the presentation, adopt the resolution proclaiming a local emergency and authorizing necessary preparedness and response actions, and authorize a supplemental FY 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve.
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2. Modify the recommended actions. Receive the presentation and adopt the resolution with modifications, including modifying the amount or permitted uses of Emergency Reserve funding.
3. Do not proclaim a local emergency at this time. Receive the presentation and direct staff to continue preparations using existing authority and appropriations and return to the City Council if conditions warrant additional action.
RECOMMENDED ACTION:
Staff recommends that the City Council:
1. Receive a presentation regarding existing flood risks and sea level rise in San Rafael and the City’s preparations for the approaching 2026–2027 El Niño winter season;
2. Adopt a resolution proclaiming the existence of a local emergency in the City of San Rafael due to the threatened conditions associated with the developing 2026–2027 El Niño event and authorizing necessary actions to prepare for and respond to severe winter weather; and
3. Authorize a supplemental fiscal year (FY) 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve for necessary storm preparation and response activities.
ATTACHMENTS:
1. Resolution
2. Governor’s State of Emergency Proclamation
RESOLUTION NO.
RESOLUTION OF THE CITY COUNCIL OF THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL PROCLAIMING THE
EXISTENCE OF A LOCAL EMERGENCY IN THE CITY OF SAN RAFAEL DUE TO THE PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM EL NIÑO DURING WINTER 2026-2027 AND AUTHORIZING NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREPARE FOR AND RESPOND TO THE EMERGENCY; AND AUTHORIZING A SUPPLEMENTAL FY 2026-27 BUDGET APPROPRIATION OF $500,000
FROM THE GENERAL FUND EMERGENCY RESERVE FOR STORM PREPARATION AND
RESPONSE
WHEREAS, in the past several years, California, including the City of San Rafael (“City”), has experienced increasingly severe and destructive storms, including atmospheric river events that have caused widespread flooding, mud and debris flows, landslides, high winds, power outages, road and highway closures, damage to homes and critical infrastructure, and disruption of essential services; and
WHEREAS, San Rafael has more than 16,000 residents who live in areas that abut either the San Francisco Bay or waterways that feed into the San Francisco Bay, and which are influenced by San Francisco Bay tides; and
WHEREAS, even without storms, the City experiences flooding in low-lying areas due to exceptionally high tides, which has resulted in the flooding of major roadways through the City; and
WHEREAS, California, including the City, is entering the 2026-2027 wet season amid ongoing development of a strong and likely historic El Niño, a climate pattern event in the Pacific Ocean; and
WHEREAS, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, in its September 10, 2026, diagnostic report, found that the El Niño event is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–2027; and
WHEREAS, the Climate Prediction Center projected a 75 percent chance that the event will reach historic strength during the October through December 2026 season, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, and exceeding the strength of all prior El Niño events in the historical record beginning in 1950; and
WHEREAS, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has found that atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific are consistent with a strengthening El Niño, including changes in equatorial winds and an eastward shift in enhanced convection and rainfall toward the central and eastern Pacific; and
WHEREAS, elevated baseline coastal water levels, combined with high tides and coastal storms, can increase risks of flooding, bayside erosion, transportation disruption, and damage to public and private infrastructure; and
WHEREAS, California has already begun to experience effects attributed to this El Niño event, with coastal water levels averaging a few inches above tidal predictions; and WHEREAS, historical experience demonstrates that very strong El Niño events can be associated with exceptionally wet and destructive winter conditions in California; and WHEREAS, the National Weather Service’s Bay Area office’s September 21, 2026, El Niño update indicated that the seasonal precipitation outlook for December-January-February is forecast to be above normal, which indicates it is slightly more likely that Marin will see higher than average levels of precipitation in the winter months; and WHEREAS, the City’s recent experience with atmospheric rivers, flooding, bayside erosion, inundation, and damage to transportation and stormwater infrastructure demonstrates the importance of procuring and positioning resources, clearing waterways, preparing the public, and taking additional actions to prepare before severe storms arrive; and WHEREAS, Government Code Section 8558(c)(1) defines a local emergency as the duly proclaimed existence of conditions of disaster or of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property within the territorial limits of a county, city and county, or city, caused by conditions such as flood, storm, or other conditions, which are or are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment, and facilities of that political subdivision and require the combined forces of other political subdivisions to combat; and
WHEREAS, on September 21, 2026, Governor Newsom found that pursuant to Government Code Section 8558(b), conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property exist due to the developing El Niño event, and that the developing El Niño event is likely to cause conditions that, by reason of their magnitude, are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment, and facilities of any single local government and require the combined forces of a mutual aid region or regions to appropriately respond; and WHEREAS, accordingly, on September 21, 2026, Governor Newsom proclaimed that a state of emergency (“Proclamation”) exists statewide due to the developing 2026-2027 El Niño event, based on the findings set forth in that declaration, that include, but are not limited to, that local governments, local water agencies, and local flood control authorities have requested action now to enable them to move quickly to begin preparations for preventing and responding to the impacts of potential flooding; and
WHEREAS, San Rafael Municipal Code Section 7.04.020(a) defines an “emergency” as an “actual or threatened existence of conditions of disaster or of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property within the City caused by such conditions as…flood, storm….which are or are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment, facilities, and related resources of this City, requiring the combined forces of other political subdivisions to combat”; and WHEREAS, to prepare for the upcoming El Niño event, the City must coordinate with other agencies, such as the County of Marin, utility providers, special districts, such as water and sanitary districts, and state/regional agencies, such as the California Department of Transportation and San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, and time is of the essence; and
WHEREAS, the City’s General Fund Reserve Policy establishes an Emergency Reserve for unforeseen emergencies and natural disasters and provides that the City Council may authorize expenditure of reserve funds by resolution when their use is consistent with the purpose and intent of the policy; and
WHEREAS, the City Council finds that expenditures necessary to prepare for and respond to the threatened impacts of the 2026–2027 El Niño event constitute an appropriate use of the General Fund Emergency Reserve; and
WHEREAS, staff recommends that the City Council authorize the appropriation and expenditure of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve to provide the City with the resources and flexibility necessary to undertake timely storm preparation and emergency response activities.
NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED, that the City Council hereby finds that, based on the accompanying staff report and staff presentation, the Governor’s Proclamation, and public comment received, the foregoing recitals are true and correct and proclaims that a local emergency exists as that term is defined in both state and local law due to the upcoming El Niño in 2026-2027 and its threatened extreme peril; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the City Manager, as Director of Emergency Services, and Assistant Director of Emergency Services are hereby vested with all powers and duties as set forth in San Rafael Municipal Code Sections 2.55.100.B and 7.12.020 as they relate to the City’s preparation and response to the upcoming El Niño event; and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that Public Works contracts and other City contracts that would otherwise be subject to bidding requirements related to the preparation and response to the upcoming El Niño event are hereby exempt from bidding requirements pursuant to San Rafael Municipal Code Section 11.50.080 and other contract requirements as deemed necessary by the Director of Emergency Services; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, the City Council hereby authorizes a supplemental FY 2026-27 budget appropriation of $500,000 from the General Fund Emergency Reserve for costs reasonably related to preparation for and response to the 2026–2027 El Niño event. Authorized expenditures may include, without limitation: emergency equipment, supplies, and materials; temporary pumps, generators, barriers, sandbags, hoses, and flood-control equipment; equipment rental; emergency contractor and professional services; drainage, debris-removal, vegetation-management, and infrastructure work; temporary flood-protection measures; trafficcontrol and road-closure equipment; emergency communications and public information; extraordinary personnel and overtime costs, as appropriate; emergency sheltering, evacuation, and community-support activities; and other necessary and reasonable expenditures directly related to preparation for, mitigation of, or response to the threatened emergency; and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, the City Manager is authorized and directed to make all budgetary and accounting adjustments necessary to implement this authorization and to establish appropriate procedures for separately tracking and documenting costs associated with the local emergency; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, City staff shall pursue reimbursement, grants, mutual aid reimbursement, disaster assistance, or other funding from the State of California, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Marin County, or other available sources for eligible costs incurred by the City; however, nothing in this resolution shall be construed as representing or guaranteeing that any City expenditure will qualify for reimbursement by another governmental agency; and
BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the City staff shall report on the status of this Citydeclared emergency at least once every 60 days, at a City Council meeting, during the duration of this emergency, until the local emergency is terminated; and BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED, that the City Council shall terminate the local emergency at the earliest possible date that conditions warrant, pursuant to Government Code Section 8630(d).
I, Lindsay Lara, Clerk of the City of San Rafael, hereby certify that the foregoing Resolution was duly and regularly introduced and adopted at a regular meeting of the San Rafael City Council held on Monday, the 5th day of October 2026, by the following vote:
AYES: Councilmembers:
NOES: Councilmembers:
ABSENT: Councilmembers:
Lindsay Lara, City Clerk
EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT
STATE OF CALIFORNIA
PROCLAMATION OF A STATE OF EMERGENCY
WHEREAS in the past several years, California has experienced increasingly severe and destructive storms, including atmospheric river events that have caused widespread flooding, mud and debris flows, landslides, high winds, power outages, road and highway closures, evacuation orders, damage to homes and critical infrastructure, and disruption of essential services; and WHEREAS climate change is intensifying these weather and hydrologic extremes in California, contributing to increasingly severe swings between drought and flooding, and heightening the risks that extreme storms pose to communities, infrastructure, natural resources, and the economy; and WHEREAS California is entering the 2026–2027 wet season amid the ongoing development of a strong and likely historic El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean; and
WHEREAS the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, in its August 13, 2026, diagnostic report, found that the El Niño event is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–2027; and
WHEREAS the Climate Prediction Center projected a 69 percent chance that the event will reach historic strength during the October through December 2026 season, defined as a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index, and exceeding the strength of all prior El Niño events in the historical record beginning in 1950; and
WHEREAS the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has found that atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific are consistent with a strengthening El Niño, including changes in equatorial winds and an eastward shift in enhanced convection and rainfall toward the central and eastern Pacific, making it more likely that at least some parts of California will experience stronger storms in coming months; and
WHEREAS elevated baseline coastal water levels, combined with high tides, large waves, high surf, and coastal storms, can increase risks of coastal flooding, beach erosion, bluff erosion, transportation disruption, and damage to public and private infrastructure; and
WHEREAS California has already begun to experience effects attributed to this El Niño event, including unusual precipitation and significant coastal flooding; and
WHEREAS historical experience demonstrates that very strong El Niño events do not produce uniform statewide outcomes, but can be associated with exceptionally wet and destructive winter conditions in California; and WHEREAS California’s recent experience with atmospheric rivers, debris flows following wildfires, flash flooding, coastal erosion, inundation, and damage to transportation and flood-control infrastructure demonstrates the importance of procuring and positioning resources, clearing waterways, and taking additional actions to prepare before severe storms arrive; and WHEREAS areas affected by recent wildfires are particularly susceptible to flash flooding, mud and debris flows, erosion, sediment transport, and road closures during high-intensity rainfall; and
WHEREAS in light of that experience, local governments, local water agencies, and local flood control authorities have requested action now to enable them to move quickly to begin preparations for preventing and responding to the impacts of potential flooding; and
WHEREAS low-income communities, farmworker families, rural residents, seniors, persons with disabilities, residents with limited transportation access, people experiencing homelessness, and communities in flood-prone, coastal, or post-fire areas may face disproportionate risks; and
WHEREAS the demonstrated potential for a very strong or historic-strength El Niño event to cause elevated coastal water levels and high-impact storms in California warrants early, coordinated, and targeted preparedness actions to protect Californians, critical infrastructure, agricultural lands, natural resources, and the State’s economy; and
WHEREAS under the provisions of Government Code section 8558(b), I find that conditions of extreme peril to the safety of persons and property exist due to the developing El Niño event; and
WHEREAS under the provisions of Government Code section 8558(b), I find that the developing El Niño event is likely to cause conditions that, by reason of their magnitude, are likely to be beyond the control of the services, personnel, equipment, and facilities of any single local government and require the combined forces of a mutual aid region or regions to appropriately respond; and
WHEREAS under the provisions of Government Code section 8625(c), I find that local authority is inadequate to cope with the magnitude of the extreme peril posed by the developing El Niño event; and
WHEREAS under the provisions of Government Code section 8571, I find that strict compliance with various statutes and regulations specified in this Proclamation would prevent, hinder, or delay the mitigation of the effects of the developing El Niño event.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, GAVIN NEWSOM, Governor of the State of California, in accordance with the authority vested in me by the State Constitution and statutes, including the California Emergency Services Act, and in particular, Government Code section 8625, HEREBY PROCLAIM A STATE OF EMERGENCY to exist statewide due to the developing 2026–2027 El Niño event.
IT IS HEREBY ORDERED THAT:
1. All agencies of the state government are to utilize and employ state personnel, equipment, and facilities for the performance of any and all activities consistent with the direction of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the State Emergency Plan. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services shall coordinate statewide preparedness activities for potential severe weather, flooding, coastal flooding, erosion, mud and debris flows, and related impacts associated with conditions resulting from the El Niño event, including atmospheric rivers and other severe storm systems. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services shall work with local and tribal governments to support emergency planning, resource coordination, and requests for state assistance. To protect their safety, all residents are to obey the direction of emergency officials with regard to this emergency.
2. As necessary to assist local governments and for the protection of public safety and the environment, state agencies shall enter into contracts to arrange for the procurement of materials, goods, and services necessary to quickly assist with the response to and recovery from the impacts of this emergency. Applicable provisions of the Government Code and the Public Contract Code, including but not limited to travel, advertising, and competitive bidding requirements, are suspended to the extent necessary to address the effects of this emergency.
3. The California Environmental Protection Agency and the California Natural Resources Agency, including boards, departments, and offices within those agencies, are directed to prioritize work to help local agencies prepare for anticipated impacts from the El Niño event. In particular, those state agencies are directed to prioritize permitting, consultation, and technical assistance to support local efforts to prevent or mitigate impacts from anticipated or potential flooding, landslides, and mud and debris flows, including local efforts to expedite levee and other flood management infrastructure repairs, vegetation management, debris removal, sediment management, bridge scour protection, and channel-capacity improvements. State agencies are directed to work with local agencies to issue any necessary permits or other approvals for such efforts as quickly as possible, including by identifying and invoking existing emergency authorities or other pathways for streamlined review.
On or before October 16, 2026, the Secretary for Environmental Protection and the Secretary of the Natural Resources Agency shall submit a joint recommendation to my office as to whether further action or emergency suspensions are necessary to support and expedite this work.
4. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services shall coordinate the State’s preparation for and response to the developing El Niño event, including by working with the Department of Water Resources and other appropriate government agencies to prepare to pre-position personnel, equipment, supplies, commodities, and other resources based on forecast conditions, local needs, and identified risks. In particular, this work shall draw on the Department of Water Resources’ guidance regarding floodrisk-reduction activities.
5. The Department of Water Resources shall take appropriate action to procure, maintain, stage, pre-position, distribute, and replenish flood-fight supplies, equipment (including, but not limited to, sandbags, riprap and other rock materials, plastic sheeting, and pumps), and other materials necessary to support statewide flood preparedness, response, and protective actions in connection with the El Niño event. The Department of Water Resources shall coordinate with appropriate government agencies to identify priority areas for flood-fight material staging and plans to make these materials available where they are needed, when they are needed.
6. The Department of Water Resources, through its Division of Safety of Dams, shall conduct outreach to owners of jurisdictional dams regarding potential severe conditions during the El Niño event and shall reiterate to dam owners their responsibilities to inspect, operate, maintain, repair, and safely manage their dams and appurtenant structures in accordance with applicable law, permit conditions, emergency action plans, and directives of the Division of Safety of Dams.
7. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, in coordination with the Department of Water Resources, shall conduct outreach to counties, cities, and relevant local agencies that are responsible for levees, floodcontrol facilities, and associated structures that may be vulnerable to impacts of the El Niño event to take appropriate actions to procure, maintain, stage, pre-position, distribute, and replenish flood-fight supplies, commodities, equipment, and materials necessary to support flood preparedness, response, and protective actions.
8. The Department of Water Resources, in coordination with the State Water Resources Control Board, shall conduct outreach and education to advance groundwater recharge projects and to use flood flows to recharge groundwater aquifers under existing law with the goal of reducing flood impacts and strengthening local water supplies.
9. Consistent with Paragraph 3 of this Proclamation, the Coastal Commission is directed to expedite review and action on proposed development by coastal communities to prepare for the impacts of this El Niño event.
Coastal communities are encouraged to submit permit applications, as appropriate, to facilitate timely Coastal Commission review, technical assistance, and other support for El Niño preparations. After an application is received, the Commission shall respond with notification of any incomplete items within five days. After an application is complete, it shall be scheduled for hearing at the next Commission meeting. For emergency permit requests, the Commission shall accept both written and oral requests to its district offices. When necessary to address an urgent need related to this emergency, the Commission shall take action on emergency permit requests as quickly as possible and within twentyfour hours of receipt.
10. The California Department of Transportation and California State Transportation Agency shall identify those state highways, bridges, culverts, drainage facilities, slopes, and other transportation infrastructure most at risk of flooding, erosion, debris flows, rockslides, mudslides, or other significant impacts from severe storms caused by the El Niño event, and transmit to the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services a prioritized list of projects to address such risks within 30 days of this Proclamation.
11. The California Department of Transportation shall develop plans to preposition personnel and materials (including directional signage, trafficcontrol devices, road-closure devices, warning signs, delineators, emergency communications equipment, and other resources) at or near locations that may be identified as at risk of severe impacts from the El Niño event. This shall include plans to prepare and pre-position snowremoval, snow-control, and ice-control equipment as appropriate, including snowplows, snow blowers, graders, loaders, chain-control equipment, salt, sand, and other materials necessary to maintain safe travel and restore access on state highways during the El Niño event.
12. The Adjutant General and the California Military Department shall, in coordination with the Director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, identify California National Guard personnel, equipment, and capabilities that may be available to support state and local emergency operations, if activated or tasked, in relation to this El Niño event. Such planning shall include readiness for high-water vehicle operations; aviation operations, including reconnaissance, search and rescue, transport, and heavy-lift support, as appropriate; engineering support; emergency communications; transportation and logistics; evacuation support; flood-fight activities; debris removal and route clearance; commodity distribution; shelter support; and other life-safety and emergency-support missions.
13.California Volunteers, in coordination with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and other appropriate agencies, shall prepare to mobilize volunteers and trained service members, consistent with their training, mission, safety requirements, and applicable law, to support state and local preparedness, response, and recovery activities in connection with the El Niño event.
14. The California Conservation Corps shall prepare to deploy Corpsmembers, consistent with its statutory mission, training, available resources, safety requirements, and applicable law, to support severe weather preparedness and response activities in connection with the El Niño event.
15. The California Energy Commission, the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety, and the State Water Resources Control Board and regional water quality control boards are directed, and the California Public Utilities Commission is requested, to coordinate, consistent with their respective authorities, with electrical, natural-gas, water, wastewater, telecommunications, transportation, and other critical-service providers to enhance readiness and support timely restoration of essential services following storm impacts.
16. The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, in consultation with relevant state agencies, shall expand accessible, multilingual public preparedness communications related to severe weather, flooding, emergency alerts, evacuation readiness, power outages, safe travel, disaster assistance, and household emergency planning.
17.Agencies under my direct authority shall cooperate in their response to this emergency. Other agencies are requested to assist in responding to this emergency, as appropriate.
18. The restrictions set forth in Penal Code section 396, which are automatically triggered upon proclamation of a state of emergency, are suspended, and no such restrictions are imposed, with respect to this El Niño event, at this time.
I FURTHER DIRECT that as soon as hereafter possible, this Proclamation be filed in the Office of the Secretary of State and that widespread publicity and notice be given of this Proclamation.
This Proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any rights or benefits, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity, against the State of California, its agencies, departments, entities, officers, employees, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF I have
hereunto set my hand and caused
the Great Seal of the State of
California to be affixed this 21st day
of September 2026.
_________________________
GAVIN NEWSOM
Governor of California
ATTEST:
_____________________________
SHIRLEY WEBER, PH. D
Secretary of State