CITY COUNCIL / PLANNING COMMISSION
JOINT SPECIAL MEETING
June 21, 2022
WE PROVIDE EFFICIENT DELIVERY OF QUALITY PUBLIC SERVICES THAT ARE
ESSENTIAL TO THOSE WHO LIVE AND WORK IN SAN RAMON
David E. Hudson, Mayor • Sridhar Verose, Vice Mayor
Mark Armstrong, Councilmember • Scott Perkins, Councilmember • Sabina Zafar, Councilmember Jean Kuznik, Chairperson • Gary Alpert, Vice Chairperson Corie Edwards, Planning Commissioner • Rick Marks, Planning Commissioner • Eric Wallis, Planning Commissioner Agenda Questions: Please call the City Clerk (925) 973-2539 Documents received after publication of this Agenda and considered by the City Council in its deliberation will be available for inspection in the City Clerk’s Office at 7000 Bollinger Canyon Road, San Ramon during normal business hours and in the red binder at the Council meeting.
Council Chamber
7000 Bollinger Canyon Road
JOINT MEETING – 6:00 PM
MEETING PROCEDURES
Pursuant to AB 361, the City is authorized to hold public meetings via teleconferencing and to make public meetings accessible telephonically or otherwise electronically to all members of the public. This meeting will be conducted both in-person and remotely via Zoom. Please note that remote participation in the meeting is optional, and if there are technical or connection issues with Zoom, the joint City Council / Planning Commission meeting will continue.
It is recommended that anyone wishing to view and/or participate in the meeting virtually download the Zoom application, www.zoom.us, before the start of the meeting. Zoom participants will have the opportunity to speak during Public Comment.
If you would like to submit written public comment via email, please do so by 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 21, 2022, to [email protected]. Please include “Public Comment 6/21/2022” in the subject line. In the body of the email please include your name and the item you wish to comment on. Written comments submitted will be provided to the Council and Commission prior to the start of the meeting. Written public comment will not be read aloud during the meeting. If you wish to make your comments heard, you must participate in the Zoom meeting or attend the meeting in person.
There will be zero tolerance for any person addressing the Council and Commission making profane, offensive and disruptive remarks, or engaging in loud, boisterous, or other disorderly conduct, that disrupts the orderly conduct of the public meeting. 2 Joint City Council / Planning Commission Meeting – June 21, 2022 HOW TO VIEW OR PARTICIPATE IN THE MEETING:
1. In-Person – San Ramon City Hall, Council Chamber, 7000 Bollinger Canyon Road
2. To view or participate in the meeting through Zoom
Livestream online at: https://cityofsanramon.zoom.us/j/91904255202 Webinar ID: 919 0425 5202
Use the “Raise Your Hand” button to request to speak when Public Comment is being taken on the Agenda item. You will then be unmuted when it is your turn to make your comment for up to three minutes. After the allotted time, you will then be re-muted.
3. To view the meeting live online at: www.sanramon.ca.gov/YouTube
4. To listen or participate in the meeting by telephone, dial: +1 (669) 900-6833 Webinar ID: 919 0425 5202
Use *9 on your telephone to raise your hand and request to speak when Public Comment is being taken on the Agenda item. You will then be unmuted when it is your turn to make your comment for up to three minutes. After the allotted time, you will then be remuted. 3 Joint City Council / Planning Commission Meeting – June 21, 2022
1. CALL TO ORDER
2. PUBLIC HEARING
2.1 Joint City Council and Planning Commission Public Hearing: General Plan 2040 Update: Draft 2023 – 2031 Housing Element Comments and Mixed Use Density and Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Information (GPA 2021-0001)
3. ADJOURNMENT
I hereby certify the attached City Council agenda was posted 72 hours before the noted meeting.
Dated: June 17, 2022
4 Joint City Council / Planning Commission Meeting – June 21, 2022 The agenda with links to minutes and staff reports is available on the City’s website:
www.sanramon.ca.gov
* * * * *
This Agenda is posted in accordance with Government Code Section 54954.2(a).
To request a disability-related accommodation(s) to participate in the meeting, please contact the City Clerk 24 hours in advance of the meeting at 925-973-2539. * * * * *
Information for public participation at Council meetings, including the time limits for addressing the Council, is provided on the agenda.
If you have any questions, please contact the City Clerk prior to the meeting. * * * * *
Regular City Council meetings are broadcast on Contra Costa Television (CCTV) (Channel 27) on Wednesdays at 7:00 p.m. and Thursdays at 1:00 p.m. immediately following the meeting.
Regular City Council meetings are also broadcast on AT&T U-Verse (Channel 99).
Regular City Council meetings may also be viewed at
http://sanramonca.iqm2.com/citizens/default.aspx
CITY COUNCIL STAFF REPORT
DATE: June 21, 2022
TO: City Council/City Manager
FROM: Debbie Chamberlain, Community Development Director By: Lauren Barr, Division Manager
SUBJECT: Joint City Council and Planning Commission Public Hearing: General Plan 2040 Update: Draft 2023 – 2031 Housing Element Comments and Mixed Use Density and Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Information (GPA 2021-0001)
RECOMMENDED ACTION
Staff recommends that the City Council and Planning Commission receive the staff report, receive public comments, provide feedback to staff and the consultant on:
1. Draft of the 2023-2031 Housing Element in advance of formal submittal to the California Office of Housing and Community Development (HCD); and
2. Background information on Mixed Use Density and FAR information and examples.
BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION
Applicant: City of San Ramon
Property Owner: Various
Location: Citywide
BACKGROUND
Each local government in California is required to adopt a comprehensive, long-term General Plan for the physical development of the jurisdiction. A certified Housing Element is one of the mandatory elements of the General Plan. Housing Element law mandates that local governments update their Housing Element every eight years to demonstrate how the jurisdiction has adequately planned to meet the existing and projected housing needs of all economic segments of the community.
On December 16, 2021, the ABAG Executive Board adopted the Final Regional Housing Needs Allocation Plan: San Francisco Bay Area, 2023 – 2031. The plan allocates 5,111 housing units to the City of San Ramon. Table 1 shows the City’s final RHNA by household income category for
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the 2023 – 2031 planning period. The City must adopt a Housing Element by January 2023 demonstrating how it can accommodate its RHNA.
Table 1: San Ramon’s 2023 - 2031 Final RHNA Allocation
Very Low
Income Units
(< 50% of
AMI)
Low Income
Units
(50-80% of
AMI)
Moderate
Income Units
(80-120% of
AMI)
Above
Moderate
Income Units
(>120% of
AMI)
Total
Units
San Ramon 1,497 862 767 1,985 5,111
The Draft Housing Element includes programs and strategies on how the City can achieve the RHNA allocation as well as facilitate other local housing goals.
Noticing Requirements/Public Outreach
The City has implemented an extensive outreach and engagement program to inform the community and seek input regarding the Housing Element Update. In the summer of 2021, the City launched the General Plan, Housing Element, and Climate Action Plan Update. Between July 2021 and March 2022, the City held six study sessions/community workshops to discuss and receive input on the Update. Staff facilitated presentations with nine City Committees/Commissions to gather input on the Housing Element Update. In September 2021, in addition to Update information posted on the City’s website, the City created a dedicated webpage at www.plansanramon.com for the Housing Element and General Plan update that serves as a landing place for information. In October 2021, the City conducted an online survey to receive additional community feedback and created an interactive map for the community to identify additional housing. City staff has attended four community events with additional events scheduled through Summer 2022 to answer questions and provide information related to the Housing Element. The workshops, study sessions, and committee meetings provided an overview of the Housing Element, RHNA, Preliminary Sites Inventory, required policy and program topics, and provided an opportunity for the community to provide feedback. The community was notified of these engagement opportunities through the City’s social media, websites, push notifications, newsletters, the community reader board, and email. Additionally, Staff held stakeholder interview meetings with the property owners, housing groups, and community groups to seek input on the Housing Element Update.
The feedback and information received through these outreach efforts was used to help create the proposed policies and programs to address the housing needs. In accordance with State law, a public notice was published in the San Ramon Valley Times, posted at several locations throughout the City, mailed notices, and emails to interested parties. Additionally, the joint City Council/Planning Commission Agenda and the Staff Report for this public hearing was also made available on the City’s website.
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DISCUSSION
Draft 2023 – 2031 Housing Element Review and Public Comment On May 17, 2022, the City Council and Planning Commission held a Joint Public Hearing to solicit public comment on the Draft 2023-2031 Housing Element components, programs and inventory. Additional staff report information from the May 17, 2022 Public Hearing can be found at the following link:
http://sanramonca.iqm2.com/Citizens/Detail_LegiFile.aspx?Frame=&MeetingID=4443&MediaP osition=&ID=3621&CssClass=
The Draft 2023-2031 Housing Element was made available for the mandatory 30-day public review period from May 13, 2022 to June 12, 2022. During the 30-day public review of the Draft Housing Element, the City received oral and written comments from community members. The comments are summarized below, along with the City’s responses. Copies of the written communication have been provided as Attachment A.
Table A-2: Summary of Public Comments
Comment Theme City Responses
RHNA
The RHNA for San Ramon is high and
does not address local concerns.
Increased housing in the community can
deteriorate the quality of life.
The City recognizes meeting the RHNA is a
challenge. However, it is a State mandate, and the
City is obligated to comply. In identifying areas for
new residential development, the City has
undertaken extensive community and stakeholder
outreach to balance the need to comply with State
law and to address quality of life concerns.
Preservation of retail and employment-producing
uses is an important consideration when selecting
sites for the 6th cycle RHNA.
Providing affordable housing to address housing
cost burden and overcrowding is also strategy to
enhance the quality of life for lower income
residents.
Preservation of Retail
Housing Element should focus on MU
retail standards and viability of
residential and retail uses. Retail
services such as grocery stores are
essential to serving existing and new
residents.
New Housing
The need to construct additional units is
inevitable. However, housing should be
human-scale, and in walkable
neighborhoods. Eliminating minimum
parking requirements can help reduce
cost of housing.
Availability of Water
The City should not build more housing
until water rights can be secured.
The City will comply with the requirement of SB
1087 to prioritize the allocation of water to
affordable housing projects. In addition, the City
will coordinate with water service providers to
secure additional water and to implement water
conservation measures. The General Plan update
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will address water availability issues.
Affordable Housing
The City has a shortage of affordable
housing. The Housing Element is a vital
step for providing housing for the next
generation and creating a vibrant
downtown.
The City is committed to expanding affordable
housing opportunities in the community. The
Housing Element includes the following programs:
- Program 8: Inclusionary Housing and
Commercial Linkage Fee
- Program 9: San Ramon Below Market Rate
(BMR) Home Ownership Program
- Program 10: Affordable and Special Needs
Housing Development
- Program 11: Unit Size Diversity
Housing Programs
The Housing Element should include a
program to look at vacancy tax so
apartments do not sit unoccupied.
The City also needs more programs to
address affirmatively further fair
housing choice.
The City does not have a high vacancy rate. At this
point, a vacancy tax is not being considered.
Many housing programs, which may not be directly
considered as a fair housing program, have positive
impacts on affirmatively furthering fair housing
(AFFH). Each program includes a reference to
AFFH themes and targeted neighborhoods for
implementation, if appropriate.
Development Standards
Church of the Valley requested changes
in development standards.
This property will be eligible for a density bonus
and concessions in development standards in
exchange for affordable units.
Climate Action
The General Plan update, including the
Housing Element, should develop a plan
for green local fossil free businesses,
include policies for climate-friendly
measures. The Housing Element should
include sustainable action language,
reference to other parts of the General
Plan and the Climate Action Plan.
The General Plan update will include sustainable
goals, policies, and implementing actions to address
climate action requirements. The Housing Element
also includes programs to address energy
conservation:
- Program 1: Neighborhood Preservation
- Program 2: City Rehabilitation Grant
- Program 3: Green Building
- Program 12: Energy Conservation
The Draft HE submitted for HCD review will include the Housing Opportunity Sites identified in the draft document as well as responses to the comments received. Once HCD’s comments have been provided, the City will finalize the HE for certification by the State.
Ad Hoc Meeting on Mixed Use Land Use Policies and Standards On May 31, 2022, the General Plan Ad Hoc Committee, consisting of two members of the City Council and two members of the Planning Commission, held a meeting to begin discussions on
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Mixed Use Land Use Policies and Standards. Staff provided an overview of mixed use conditions within the City and existing General Plan policies related to mixed use. As part of the discussion, staff sought feedback on the application of alternative land uses and or minimum standards on portions of the existing mixed uses centers to preserve and balance commercial uses and residential uses. The Committee expressed the need for better definitions related to retail, service commercial and other commercial uses. They also placed an emphasis on the need to understand the findings and conclusions of the San Ramon Retail Development Opportunity Analysis prepared by the City consultants to better inform future policy direction. Additionally, there was a desire to illustrate how some of these development standards might work and what various densities might look like.
San Ramon Retail Development Analysis
The San Ramon Retail Development Opportunities Analysis (Attachment B) is intended to address market demand conditions and provides related policy/strategy recommendations to optimize future retail development opportunities in the City of San Ramon. This analysis is intended to look at regional, local and societal trends, and is intended to provide an update to a 2017 study prepared by BAE Urban Economics. This analysis is provided as an informational item for review at this time and can further inform future discussions and priorities for the Growth Management, Land Use, and Economic Elements moving forward.
Mixed Use and Land Use definitions.
The Committee expressed a need for better definitions of retail and other commercial uses.
Mixed use is defined as a mix of commercial and residential uses and does not specifically address retail sales or sales tax generation. An appropriate mix of commercial and residential uses on mixed uses sites is important to the land use discussion and requires additional clarification related to both types of commercial activities and the residential densities allowed.
The retail land use classifications are most closely associated with the sale of goods that generate sales tax. As discussed at the Ad Hoc meeting, the Zoning Ordinance does not specifically include a definition of retail use and relies on the land use tables to address what is allowed, conditionally allowed, or prohibited within mixed use and commercial districts.
The Committee is ultimately looking to clarify the policies around mixed use to address the ratio of residential and commercial uses as well as other tools to protect the City’s sales tax base and range of services for the community. Future discussion of these topics and information provided are anticipated as part of the next Mixed Use Ad Hoc Committee meeting.
Floor Area Ratio (FAR) and Density Examples
Density and FAR are key concepts in the future development of the City and have long lasting impacts on the character of the City as well as feasibility of future development proposals. In an effort to provide a better understanding of these concepts, staff has prepared additional explanations and examples of FAR and Density.
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Floor area ratio (FAR) is the measurement of a building's floor area in relation to the size of the lot that the building is located on. It is most often associated with commercial and mixed use development, but ultimately is an expression of development intensity regardless of how a site is configured and is considered an objective standard. FAR is expressed as a decimal number, and is derived by dividing the total area of the building by the total gross area of the parcel. The FAR accounts for the entire floor area of a building, not simply the building's footprint. Excluded from the square footage calculation are unoccupied areas such as basements, parking garages, stairs, and elevator shafts. A higher ratio typically indicates allowance of denser construction.
Figure 1: Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Examples
Density is most often used to characterize residential development intensity. Density is expressed as an allowed density range in residential units per acre and can be used to establish a minimum or maximum threshold for specific zoning or project areas. As a numeric standard Density is an objective standard. It should be noted that Density it is not a good tool for regulating physical form because unit sizes are not standard and vary based on the type of housing and market conditions. FAR deals with the physical volume of development, while Density is a function of housing unit capacity, which varies, based on unit type. Architectural treatments, and attention to massing can impact how density and FAR is perceived.
Figure 2: Density Examples
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Site Comparison Study
The Following is a site comparison study for various desnities and FAR as applied to the same Project site:
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Attachment C includes a series of other project examples, at various densities and FAR, to further illustrate the concepts. Given the potential impacts on development potential and residential unit yield, the Mixed Use Ad Hoc Committee will continue to discuss these issues in the context of the General Plan Update and future Zoning Ordinance updates.
NEXT STEPS
1. Draft 2023-2031 Housing Element to be submitted to HCD for their 90-day review consistent with State law.
2. Mixed Use Ad Hoc Meeting will provide additional feedback in response to the retail analysis and mixed use information at their next meeting.
ATTACHMENT
A: Draft HE Written Public Comments
B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis
C- Project Examples- Density and FAR
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April 21, 2022
Dear San Ramon City Council:
We are writing on behalf of YIMBY Law and Greenbelt Alliance regarding San Ramon’s 6th Cycle Housing Element Update. YIMBY Law is a legal nonprofit working to make housing in California more accessible and affordable through enforcement of state law. Greenbelt Alliance is an environmental nonprofit working to en‐ sure that the Bay Area’s lands and communities are resilient to a changing climate.
We are writing to remind you of San Ramon's obligation to include sufficient sites in your upcoming Housing Element to accommodate your Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) of 5,111 units.
In the Annual Progress Reports that San Ramon submitted to HCD, we observe the following trend of housing units permitted in the last four years:
Year Housing units permitted
2018 275
2019 252
2020 106
2021 289
Average, 2018-2021 230
To meet the 6th cycle RHNA target, the rate of new housing permits in San Ramon would need to increase from 230 units per year in 2018-2021 to 639 units per year in the next 8 years. This is a 177% increase from re‐ cent years. If the current pace were to continue, San Ramon would meet only 36% of its new housing target.
Based on these trends, it is unlikely that San Ramon’s existing realistic zoning capacity is sufficient to meet its 6th cycle RHNA target. According to HCD’s Housing Element Site Inventory Guidebook, housing elements must analyze the realistic capacity of their sites, which may include considerations of “[l]ocal or regional track records”, “past production trends”, and “the rate at which similar parcels were developed during the previous planning period”. A housing element that does not include a significant rezoning component is therefore un‐ likely to be compliant with state law.
We urge San Ramon to include a major rezoning component in its Housing Element—a rezoning large enough to close the gap between recent housing production trends and the RHNA target. The rezoning should be within existing communities and should comply with the city’s obligation to Affirmatively Further Fair Hous‐ ing. We also urge San Ramon to ease any other constraints, such as discretionary approval processes or impact fees, that may impede the rate of development on your city's housing sites.
Thank you,
Sid Kapur, East Bay YIMBY ([email protected])
Rafa Sonnenfeld, YIMBY Law ([email protected])
Zoe Siegel, Greenbelt Alliance ([email protected])
RECEIVED
APR 21 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
Subject: Public Comment 5/17/2022
From: Ralph Ballart <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 17, 2022 9:04 AM
To: City Clerk (Public) <[email protected]>
Subject: Public Comment 5/17/2022
Comment on the Housing Element
I first want to thank the Planning Commissioners for their hard work on the draft Housing Element. I attended the Ad-hoc Planning Committee meetings chaired by Eric Wallis and Rick Marks and was extremely impressed with their knowledge of San Ramon and their due diligence on the housing sites identified. I also wanted to thank city staff, especially Cindy Yee.
Almost 4 years ago my daughter was looking for a townhouse and with her, I experienced the trauma of a Bay area housing search. “The seller prefers an all-cash offer.” It was insane then and I could not have imagined how much worse it is now. Where are younger people supposed to live? Not everyone can work for Apple, Google or Facebook. Where are our schoolteachers and Safeway workers going to find housing? We are truly facing a crisis.
I fully support the San Ramon Housing Element as a vital step to providing housing for the next generation of San Ramon residents. It will lead to a vibrant downtown close to retail and transportation. And it will lead to the development of sites that now have lower economic value because of reduced demand for office space (e.g., BR 6) or are underutilized today. And you are doing this in a way that minimizes disruption to our existing neighborhoods. Thank you, San Ramon Planning Commission!
I know you will be under pressure to reduce the number of “very low-income sites.” For me, very low income describes my family when I was growing up. Maintaining housing for a full broad diversity of families is not only required by state law, it’s also the right thing to do.
Respectfully,
Ralph Ballart, 28 Cree Ct
RECEIVED
MAY 17 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: Christina Toy <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2022 2:53 PM
To: Planning Services (public)
Subject: Draft 2023-2031 Housing Element
Dear City of San Ramon Planning,
I have lived in San Ramon since 1972 at age 5. I have watched the growth of this town into a City. It scares me to see all the continued building of houses in this city. We already lost the Nob Hill Grocery Store to more housing and now more homes are going up in the middle of Bishop Ranch. Soon, we will only have houses and nowhere to buy our groceries. It makes me sad to see this suburb become such a large city with the main focus on houses.
I know this is just will go in one ear and out another but as a long term resident, I need to say my peace. I have watch more and more of my school mates and their parents move out of San Ramon to smaller communities, even out of state to get away from this growth.
Sincerely,
Christina Toy
RECEIVED
MAY 19 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: plansanramon <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, May 26, 2022 10:16 AM
To: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; Yee, Cindy; Chamberlain, Debbie; Barr, Lauren; Driscoll, Ryan
Subject: [#20220526171619] Comment from plansanramon Website San Ramon General Plan
Ticket: [#20220526171619]
Name: Erica Lane
e-mail: [email protected]
Housing Element Comment:
Please add a vacancy tax to the plan! That way apartments don’t sit empty.
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RECEIVED
MAY 26 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: Penny Wolfsohn <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, May 27, 2022 1:02 PM
To: Planning Services (public)
Subject: Housing density issues
It is absolutely critical that you consider the importance of providing water to any new housing that you have planned for. It’s one thing to look at the bottom line in terms of taxes and it’s another thing to be totally realistic about our demands for water that we do not have.
Please, please, please, no more housing until we find a way to get water to the housing that we have now.
I have written about this before but I’m asking you again and this time I’m saying “please think about water when you put new housing in” ; we don’t have enough water for the people that we have now; we don’t need more !!
Santa Rosa Resident in Sunny Glen Community.
Penny Wolfsohn
RECEIVED
MAY 27 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
Subject: Public Comment 05/31/2022
From: Robert Klingner <[email protected]>
Sent: Tuesday, May 31, 2022 3:25 PM
To: [email protected]
Cc: City Council <[email protected]>
Subject: Public Comment 05/31/2022
Robert Klingner
102 Claremont Crest Ct
San Ramon, CA 94583-1298
[email protected]
CITY OF SAN RAMON
GENERAL PLAN MIXED USE
AD HOC COMMITTEE AGENDA
May 31, 2022
Public Comment 5/31/2022
Today, I think the City of San Ramon is somewhat overwhelmed by businesses engaged in services including food, liquor, health and recreation. These services tend to dominate all the retail centers in the city.
The Ad Hoc Committee should recognize, that as changes occur to existing retail centers in the City of San Ramon, there is a need to attract new and different businesses, to enhance the city, and to prepare a better environment for residents through the year 2040.
Item #1: The City should consider an alternate land use designation Arts, Sciences, Technology for the non-HOS portion of the shopping centers.
Item #2: The City should establish a minimum FAR for commercial uses with a higher maximum FAR for a Mixed Use (MU) development.
Item #3: The City should remove Mixed Use (MU) land use designation on portions of Crow Canyon Commons Shopping Center.
RECEIVED
MAY 31 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 2 Respectfully,
Robert Klingner
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: plansanramon <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, June 3, 2022 4:26 PM
To: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; Cindy yee; Debbie Chamberlain; Lauren Barr; Ryan Driscoll Subject: [#20220603232556] Comment from plansanramon Website San Ramon General Plan
Ticket: [#20220603232556]
Name: Cheryl Daniels
e-mail: [email protected]
Housing Element Comment:
Hi, my name is Cheryl and I want to talk about how important this low income housing is. I need it desperately in San Ramon. Not everyone who lives here is a CEO! And the places that hire around here don’t pay enough to live here. I feel like it’s segregation in a different form. It really feels like the city of San Ramon doesn’t want me here. I’m not as bad off as some but I pay $2300 for an apartment and it’s too high! I could do $1800. When the average person making $19 a month can’t pay rent on top of all of their other bills its bull crap! People can’t afford it! This is why it’s so important so please prioritize us! We don’t have enough for groceries after rent and we need these apartments NOW! Not in 2031, but in 2023! I’m on a fixed income I can’t even look forward to going anywhere or buying anything around here because it all goes to rent. How come apartments can raise rent and make us homeless? Please do something soon! We need housing based on our W2!
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RECEIVED
JUN 03 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element)
RECEIVED
JUN 10 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 7000 Bollinger Canyon Rd.
San Ramon, CA 94583
June 9, 2022
Honorable Members of the San Ramon City Council and staff:
East Bay for Everyone writes to help ensure the draft Housing Element will meaningfully help those who need housing in San Ramon. Our comments focus on three issues:
1. Housing opportunity sites not realistically projecting production capacity or likelihood over 8 years, particularly by overstating owner interest/capacity/readiness;
2. Making only token gestures at the legal requirement of affirmatively furthering fair housing, mostly consisting of continuing existing programs and following state law; and
3. Only minimally addressing the constraint of off-street parking minimums, currently quite high.
We go into more detail below.
1. Housing opportunity sites not realistically projecting capacity or likelihood We appreciate that in the draft, San Ramon has tried to accommodate a significant buffer over its RHNA allocation. We also appreciate that a number of parcels are rezoned toward hitting that allocation. However, we do not believe it is realistic that San Ramon will get close to its allocation as its plan stands now. A broader rezoning across wider areas and more encouragement of missing middle / small-lot development in residential areas, accounting for the fact that most development happens outside of opportunity sites, would prevent San Ramon from falling short.
The vast majority of sites in the housing inventory are on non-vacant sites, with the majority of these assuming development at 75% of the maximum new zoned capacity. (Sometimes it is 60% when mixed-use with 40% commercial is predicted; occasionally, the net land area is marked down to assume only component parking is redeveloped.)
- This is unrealistically high because this 75% estimate is from an analysis of developed sites that achieved 80% of their maximum zoned capacity; 80% is an unrealistic number because it ignores the chance that a site does not get developed at all, which happened frequently in the 5th Cycle. Given a tiny minority of opportunity sites have actually been developed over the 2015 cycle (more have been approved, but few permitted), this 75% is certainly an overestimate.
East Bay for Everyone - [email protected]
RECEIVED
JUN 10 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) - The sites are almost all in mixed-use districts, so a number will likely be entirely commercial developments, further reducing production even when there is redevelopment. The city should apply, and HCD should expect, a more realistic calculation ofthe objective likelihood of residential development of non-vacant parcels, likely 10-20% even in boom times.
The sites in the housing inventory other than pipeline projects are divided into two categories, "carryover"(used in the last two housing elements) and "rezoned"(not so used). Although the city appears to plan to rezone the carryover sites for by-right development as legally required, it rather misses the point to include such sites by default when what distinguishes them is having been on the inventory and undeveloped for fourteen years
1 . Many of the sites have barriers to
development that have not been overcome, or their evidence of likelihood of development appears to be copied from the 2015 housing element, suggesting it is out of date. The city should conduct more analysis of the overall factors constraining development, and what the city can do to lessen those or other constraints.
Some examples of problems with carryover sites:
● 2400 Old Crow Canyon: the current church owner "previously expressed their willingness to redevelop the site so long as their meeting facility could be accommodated"; this same language accompanies its listing in the 2015 housing element, putting in question whether this willingness has been checked more recently, and even if it has, the need for a new meeting facility (presumably in the same neighborhood) is a significant constraint. Typically redeveloping churches does not happen unless the owner is actively interested, as opposed to merely open to the possibility. (One other church elsewhere is listed.) ● 2092 Omega is noted as having development potential limited by small parcel size which is being addressed by also rezoning adjacent sites (good); but other opportunity sites are just as small and this constraint is not being addressed - for example, 1947 San Ramon Valley, or 4750 Norris Canyon.
● 2233 San Ramon Valley Road: a proposal for a 200 home project was reviewed by the Planning Commission in 2017. Commissioners expressed concerns about setbacks and design elements, and directed the applicant to revise the proposal, but no further action was taken. We noted that staff have provided a more conservative estimate of the site’s capacity, at 87 units for the two sites. However staff must show greater evidence for likely redevelopment beyond the City’s review of a concept plan for mixed use development at the site.
75% of maximum zoned density being an overestimate is also shown by the history of sites where proposals are in process compared to what was or would have been estimated for them:
1 "The development of a sites inventory for the 6th cycle RHNA started with review of opportunity sites from the 4th and 5th cycle that remain available and appropriate for housing development. Sites carried over from these cycles are added to new sites identified for the 6th cycle." East Bay for Everyone - [email protected]
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) - 130 Market Place is credited for 72 units, but just had a mixed-use proposal submitted for
44. - The roller rink at 2701 Hooper was in the 2015 housing element at 3.4 acres and maximum density 50 du/a, so under this methodology would have yielded up to 136 units, but was approved in Dec. 2021 for only 63 units.
The iterations of the roller rink proposal also put into question the city's willingness to follow through on its housing element concepts. In 2017 the rink's owner proposed to build 227 units including 46 very-low-income restricted units, but that same year that area's maximum density was reduced from 50 to 35 du/a over the objections of the rink's owner, resulting in the project's demise. In 2020 a further Specific Plan update attempted to remove the area from the Residential Overlay entirely, making any housing development impossible. SB330 for the first time that year banned such anti-housing actions. Possibly if the city had been the final arbiter the parcel would have never seen a single unit of housing, and as is it still ended up a much smaller project than zoned for as an opportunity site. By-right multifamily zoning in broader areas - with reduced constraints, see section 3 on parking below - would be an assurance of more housing production in the future.
In the rezoned category, the inventory does contain text on why the non-vacant site should be considered developable, as required by law. But on close reading, that text often adds up to little evidence. It often notes developer interest in the Specific Plan area -- different from interest by the actual owner. The text then often generically describes nearby or adjacent parcels being developed, and occasionally judges the parcel to be underutilized, which again is different from owner interest. Even when there is owner interest, it appears to be an informal communication, and is likely not available in writing, much less having reached any actions like conceptual drawings.
Three parcel bundles with common ownership in the "rezoned" category account for a majority of the predicted units and their specifics illuminate how owner willingness has been materially exaggerated: parts of Bishop Ranch, a Toyota site, and a PG&E site.
Bishop Ranch (opportunity sites projecting 2,084 units over 5 parcels: 213-130-003 and 213-133-078, -067, -068, and -069) is a large corporate park, other parcels of which are already being redeveloped in the form of the CityWalk development, but that is a project of 4,500 units spread out over 25 years. Since all of Bishop Ranch appears from records to share the same owner, Sunset Development Company, it seems unrealistic they would take their already ambitious and major project and increase it by 40%, all added to the front end of their 25-year timeline. Finally, these parcels not already being in the CityWalk project is evidence they are less underutilized than those that were included, or otherwise less suitable. For example, the 213-130-003 parcel currently holds an urgent care center (of which there are only two in the area) and several medical offices, which likely pay high rent. We do not think this bundle of sites should be included in the Housing Element.
East Bay for Everyone - [email protected]
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Second, the Toyota site (1,066 units on 1 parcel, 213-133-051) is a good example of the city declaring owner interest with very little backing it up, raising questions of how many more sites have owner interest overstated. Although there is a "yes"in the "Property Owner Interest" column, the detailed discussion merely states "Recent discussions with property owner on long term opportunities on the property as part of the stakeholder interviews of the HE update," meaning the city is only confirming it discussed the issue, without being able to confirm any active interest from the owner at all. The draft also records feedback from one Josh Nycz of Toyota that there is "No discussion of expansion; no change of status" relating to their site (page H.A-13), reinforcing this conclusion. We do not think this site should be included in the Housing Element.
Third and finally, on a large site PG&E (429 units on 5 parcels, 213-011-002, -003, and 006, and 213-020-054 and -055) now uses for training, conferences, and lodging, the city suggests PG&E could consolidate operations to redevelop for 400+ units, but records no plans or interest on PG&E's part. Given PG&E's monopoly profits, it will have less incentive than other owners to redevelop underused sites, all else being equal. The city also estimates capacity at 60% of land area while saying that PG&E could keep existing buildings and just build on the remainder of the land - the parking lots - but the existing buildings are well-spread across the area; it would be highly constraining to build around them and leave them in place. We do not think this site should be included in the Housing Element.
2. Affirmatively furthering fair housing in the housing element reads like more status quo The measures taken in the housing element to fulfill the legal requirement to affirmatively further fair housing consist entirely of either continuing existing programs (inclusionary zoning; fair housing outreach) or implementing programs unambiguously required by state law - specifically, adopting an SB 9 ordinance. AFFH is supposed to counteract existing trends, not continue them.
We do not see any evidence that San Ramon is committed to doing more than "business as usual".
With the affordability crisis, landlords and realtors can allow prevailing prices to screen out non-affluent people automatically, and get nearly the same results as if they were taking the legal risk of discriminating by race, language, disability, nationality, or other protected factors. (We also note that San Ramon formally opposed SB 9's passage in the Legislature and is now citing it as a key action among its fair housing goals.) We are not confident that the city will implement SB 9 in good faith, or instead craft an ordinance to limit its use as some other cities have.
More direct action to further fair housing compared to the status quo would include targeting single-family-zoned areas for missing middle housing across the entire 2-10 unit range (as enabled by SB 10 without needing EIR update), creating opportunities for more people at lower to middle income levels to enjoy the high opportunities and amenities of the area without complicated subsidized projects and with involvement from smaller, local developers. Also, the bulk of new development should not be near polluted, dangerous traffic corridors or industrial East Bay for Everyone - [email protected]
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) areas, a common pitfall of city planning when an unspoken goal is to "protect" established neighborhoods.
3. Off-street parking minimums
The draft acknowledges that off-street parking is generally regarded as a constraint, and San Ramon's are quite high for multifamily housing: two spaces per two-bedroom unit, one per studio or one-bedroom, plus 0.25 guest spaces per unit of any type. It justifies this level only by saying the requirement is (or will be made) less than the applicable requirement for single-family housing; but the city provides no evidence that the single-family parking requirement is itself reasonable and non-constraining.
In structured parking attached to multifamily housing, off-street parking in California averages a cost of $36,000 per space, so every space required has a major impact on project feasibility. There is also strong new evidence that the provision of off-street parking makes households more likely to purchase cars when they otherwise would not, increasing congestion and thwarting climate goals. Off-street parking also increases the price of a home, since one pays for the parking bundled with the home. Lowering parking minimums will make housing more affordable.
Many families would jump at the opportunity to live in San Ramon if the only sacrifice were sticking to one car. Certainly San Ramon's transit means it will remain car-dependent for some time; but developers know this necessity and will provide some parking based on demand, while also properly taking the costs into account. Adding housing without extensive off-site parking will help increase demand for popular County Connection bus routes. Finally, it will increase the feasibility of existing owners converting their parking to housing - something the inventory explicitly hopes for, but does not demonstrate the legality of. San Ramon should further opportunities for housing by eliminating off-street minimums, or at a minimum decreasing them to 1 per unit across the board, with no guest parking requirements.
Thank you for your consideration.
Signed,
John Minot (co-executive), and
The 2500 members of East Bay for Everyone
East Bay for Everyone - [email protected]
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: SRV Climate Coalition <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2022 1:21 PM
To: Planning Services (public)
Cc: Dave Hudson; Sridhar Verose; Scott Perkins; Mark Armstrong; Sabina Zafar; Joe Gorton; Karen Smith
Subject: Public Comment for General Plan 2022
Attachments: ATTACHMENT for san ramon general plan june 2022.docx June 12, 2022
Honorable Mayor and Councilmembers,
Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Housing Element Update in the General Plan. We have reviewed the final draft of San Ramon’s General Plan, and we request that you please address certain aspects of the plan before moving forward. We have before us a great opportunity, as a community, to become a leader in the future of housing and the built environment, rather than a follower. With 60% of GHG arising from suburban areas, we ask you as our elected representatives of San Ramon, to address these policies and ensure we leave a sustainable future for the next generations to enjoy.
Numerous factors will affect residents, and we request that you balance services–with a higher population and the need for the services, i.e., supermarkets, drug stores, restaurants, and car repair. More new residents need local options, jobs near homes, and retail services. Please ensure Economic Development is added as a General Plan objective. Do we want San Ramon to be a Technology Hub, or do we want it to have it full of small businesses. If we want a balance, please develop a plan for green local fossil free businesses. Keep jobs local to reduce vehicle miles traveled. *Giving priority to low income families is a start…* Our organization, San Ramon Valley Climate Coalition, https://srvclimate.org/, established in 2021 has worked tirelessly to provide public input. Moreover, we are prepared to present to you with nearly 200 signatures from residents seeking policies to address the Climate Crisis.
Yet, we have been disregarded in the planning process and are not listed in the Outreach section of the plan. Nor have we been asked to participate and comment. We request you meet with us to ensure that the city's General Plan and future development, be conducted with not only climate‐friendly measures, but also through sincerity, transparency, and diligence. Declaring a Climate Emergency remains high on our list of actions for the City of San Ramon.
Further, although other climate action organizations are listed in the outreach report regarding the Housing Element, we fail to see sustainable action language, and reference to other important sections of the General Plan. The CAP should be integral to the process and RECEIVED JUN 12 2022
CITY OF SAN RAMON
PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 2 discussed in all of the General Plan elements, and yet it doesn’t even appear in the process until Phase 6, after the approval of the General Plan. What is the plan for integrating the CAP and the Housing Element and the overall General Plan and will there be a review process to allow for public involvement?
Please see the attachment for our request of actions to be added to San Ramon’s Housing Element and other sections of the General Plan. We look forward to hearing from you soon.
Once again, we ask that you meet with us to help ensure residents are engaged; and everything runs smoothly & through climate friendly means.
Sincerely,
The Board San Ramon Valley Climate Coalition
Sue Bock
Chris Bried
Chirag Kathrani
Sara Lashanlo
Dave Bhardwaj
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element)
ATTACHMENT
For San Ramon General Plan Review June 12, 2022
We request that these actions be added to the San Ramon’s General Plan:
Clarify the goals and intentions for the Built environment, Green Building Standards/Code and how these will be achieved. In each of these sections, please provide specific actions, deliverables and a target date:
o IP 11.5.4‐4 Enforce the State’s energy conservation standards for new residential construction and renovations to existing structures. o IP 11.5.4‐5 Encourage innovative designs to maximize passive energy efficiencies
o P 11.5.4‐4 Enforce the State’s energy conservation standards for new residential construction and renovations to existing structures. o IP 11.5.4‐5 Encourage innovative designs to maximize passive energy efficiencies.
Simply stating existing standards will be met isn’t enough. In each implementation element:
o Please reference the new Climate Action Plan.
o Please include specific measurables and dates for each of the Implementing element sections.
How will each IP be done and monitored?
o Please also remove words throughout the document such as “Encourage” or “Educate”. These are not actions.
o Further, the document currently references agreements with codes adopted in 2014. That was 8 years ago.
Are these current or perhaps obsolete? Certainly federal, state and local policies are, and should be far more aggressive.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Please include and address the definition of Equity. The state is urging that local Housing Elements work to actively reverse discriminatory practices. A Housing Element simply saying "we won't discriminate" is not sufficient. At a minimum, please follow the lead of the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors, and the City of Martinez who have this language in a Climate Emergency Resolution:
o BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that health, socio‐economic, and racial equity considerations should be included in policy making and climate solutions at all levels and across all sectors as the consequences of climate change have significant impacts on all San Ramon residents, especially the young, the elderly, low‐income or communities of color, and other vulnerable populations. o BE IT FURTHER RESOLVED that City of San Ramon should develop policies to require all new construction to be fully electric through the adoption of reach building codes
Phase 6 is the planned climate action update.
o When will meetings be planned for that? And how will this be referenced in the General Plan? At a minimum, please add an IP element clearing outlining the deliverable and date. 11.1 We’re glad to see the scope in the Draft housing element includes ‘Opportunities for energy conservation’
o Please also add “GHG reductions; KwH reductions, and opportunities for NetZero energy as well as Carbon offsets. and reducing VMTs” 11.1.2 Element 10 related to Housing and Yes Element 11 on Air quality and Greenhouse gas.
o Please include measurable goals and identify what department will monitor and report on these?
11.5.4‐1 Promote climate change goals through energy conserving practices in the location, construction, renovation, and maintenance of San Ramon’s housing units.
o What are the specific energy conserving practices and what is the measurable objective? Reduce by 20%? Reach 1990 levels?
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) It is preferred throughout the General Plan “encourage and promote” language be removed and replaced with “shall” and “should” and “require”
For multi unit family homes we support EV chargers 1 for each unit We would also like to request participation is an electric bike share program such as an example in this
link, https://mtc.ca.gov/operations/traveler‐services/bay‐wheels‐bike‐ share‐program
We support the following Green Building and Energy-Efficient Building Standards and Practices and Conservation Incentives for the Building Industry and Residents as stated by HCD.gov. Please include:
Develop energy conservation standards for street widths and drought tolerant landscaping of streets and parking lots to reduce heat loss and/or provide shade.
Orient housing developments, where possible, to take advantage of natural day lighting, and ensure at least one roof is “solar ready”. Promote permeable paving materials for cooling and water conservation Apply for or support applications for affordable housing funds from agencies that reward and incentivize good planning. Examples include the California’s Multifamily Housing Program (administered by HCD) and tax‐ credit programs (administered by the California Tax Credit Allocation Committee).
Promote location‐efficient mortgage and energy‐efficient mortgage programs. These programs provide homeowners with affordable mortgage assistance if they purchase a home in specified, location‐efficient areas or by meeting certain energy conservation standards.
Provide incentives to build housing that exceeds Title 24 requirements that was created in 1978, “Title 24 California Building Standards Code is a broad set of requirements for “energy conservation, green design, construction and maintenance, fire and life safety, and accessibility” that apply to the “structural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems” in a building.” Promote standards that promote passive solar heating, overhangs on south facing windows, and planting of deciduous trees on the west and south. Encourage installation of photovoltaic and “cool” roofs, solar water heating, and (where appropriate) wind turbines.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Incentivize use of recycled and rapidly renewable building materials and ensure effective demolition and construction recycling. Require use of Energy Star and Water Sense appliances and materials. Promote installation of efficient air conditioning and use of whole house fans and solar attic fans.
Encourage use of upgraded insulation, advanced air infiltration reduction practices (air sealing), and double‐pane windows.
Require use of energy‐efficient lighting (e.g. LED). Require use of low‐ or no volatile organic compound paint, wood finishes, and adhesives. Avoid products with added formaldehyde.
Promote use of mechanical ventilation systems, heat recovery ventilation units, and sealed‐combustion furnaces and water heaters. Require range hoods and bath fans to vent to outside and bath fans to be automatically controlled with a timer or humidistat.
Require recycling a specified percentage of construction wastes. Promote use of recycled content aggregate for driveways. Promote effective water management designs (e.g. use of water‐efficient landscaping and efficient irrigation systems that incorporate wastewater reuse and metering).
Require all new construction ban natural gas
Require all new construction to have “purple pipe” to allow for use of recycled or gray water.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) 1 Ryan Driscoll
From: CCC Climate Leaders <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2022 3:37 PM
To: Planning Services (public); Dave Hudson; Sridhar Verose; 'Scott Perkins Council Member'; Mark Armstrong; Sabina Zafar
Cc: 'Joe Gorton City'; Karen Smith; 'sue bock'; 'Zoe Siegel'; 'CCC Climate Leaders'; 'Karen Rosenberg'
Subject: Comments on the San Ramon Housing Element
Attachments: CCC GP_ Specific Policy Suggestions from EnviroStakeholders_06.22.2020.docx; 4CL Comments on San Ramon Housing GP Update_06.12.22.doc
June 12, 2022
Re: Draft Housing Element
Honorable Mayor and Town Councilmembers:
We have reviewed the San Ramon Draft Housing Element Here. And we have three main concerns.
1. Outreach and Process
2. Climate Crisis and Sustainability
3. Equity, Justice and affordability
please see our attached comments.
We join and concur on the comments from the San Ramon Valley Climate Coalition (SRVCC) and the letters presented to you previously from the other 17 Contra Costa County environmental organizations. See attached.
We implore the City of San Ramon to take bold measurable action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sequester carbon, address emergency planning and transition to an equitable carbon-free community.
Thank you for your consideration, and all that you do to make our communities a better place to live.
Lynda Deschambault
Lynda Deschambault
Environmental Scientist and Educator
Former USEPA Region 9
Former Mayor Moraga CA
Executive Director
www.cccclimateleaders.org
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PLANNING SERVICES
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) A project of Generation Green - a 501(c) 3 nonprofit organization Find Links to Other Local Government Policy Opportunities at: www.cccclimateleaders.org PO Box 6993 • Moraga, CA 94570 • Phone: (925) 631-0597 • [email protected] June 12, 2022
Re: Draft Housing Element
Honorable Mayor and Town Councilmembers:
We have reviewed the San Ramon Draft Housing Element Here. And we have three main concerns.
1. Outreach and Process
2. Climate Crisis and Sustainability
3. Equity, Justice and affordability
Outreach and Process: It is unclear if sufficient outreach has been conducted, and whether the process to allow for public input is sufficiently transparent. The planning commission reviewed the San Ramon housing element on March 22nd with a 2 page announcement issued on May 6th, for a joint PC/TC meeting on May 17th and another on June 21st. In the interim, a draft housing element is available for public review. Posted May 13th with comments due by today June 12th. Will resident’s comments be incorporated and a revised document be discussed at the June 21st meeting? A number of outreach events and surveys are referenced, but it is unclear what percentage of the population was engaged and/or responded, and what efforts were made to ensure disadvantaged communities participated and comments incorporated? Further, local environmental advocates such as the San Ramon Valley Climate Coalition (SRVCC) seem to have been left out. What effort will be made for the Jun 21st meeting to engage the community and what is the process to incorporate resiliency and emergency planning concerns? Climate Crisis and Sustainability How can San Ramon reduce vulnerability and the impact of the 5,111 new proposed homes, if the draft doesn’t mention the most essential hazard our cities are facing: The Climate Crisis? This should be clearly out lined and discussed in the scope and identified as an existing Condition and Hazard. We are happy to see that San Ramon does have a separate element in Chapter 12 of the city’s existing General Plan titled “Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas”. And it seems that there is an anticipated phase 6 “Climate Action Plan Update” to bring the 2011 San Ramon CAP up to date. Unfortunately, so far, we do not see mention of important mitigations necessary for the housing element. Could you please clarify the process and the opportunity for that important information to become part of the planning process and ultimately the General Plan update? https://plansanramon.com/
In Contra Costa County 10 other cities and the County, are currently going thru robust General Plan updates along with their required Housing Elements and climate planning requirements are involved in all chapters and throughout their General Plans! We recommend that San Ramon consider Phase 6 now, as part of the review and development of the Housing Element. To assist and to ensure adoption of robust language please review other city best practices. i.e. The City of Richmond’s General Plan 2030; http://www.ci.richmond.ca.us/2608/General-Plan2030; and associated climate action plan www.richmondcap.org. This is an excellent best practice example to consider. Others can be found at www.cccclimateleaders.org Equity, Justice and affordability: Given the current racial injustices happening around the world, putting people of color and low income at risk, we implore San Ramon to include a stand-alone Environmental Justice Element in the General Plan as required by the State of California, and discuss how this is incorporated into the housing element.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) A project of Generation Green - a 501(c) 3 nonprofit organization Find Links to Other Local Government Policy Opportunities at: www.cccclimateleaders.org PO Box 6993 • Moraga, CA 94570 • Phone: (925) 631-0597 • [email protected] We join and concur on the comments from the San Ramon Valley Climate Coalition (SRVCC) and the letters presented to you previously from the other 17 Contra Costa County environmental organizations. See attached.
We implore the City of San Ramon to take bold measurable action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sequester carbon, address emergency planning and transition to an equitable carbon-free community.
Thank you for your consideration, and all that you do to make our communities a better place to live.
Lynda Deschambault
Lynda Deschambault
Environmental Scientist and Educator
Former USEPA Region 9
Former Mayor Moraga CA
Executive Director
www.cccclimateleaders.org
Email: [email protected]
David E. Hudson Mayor [email protected]
Sridhar Verose Vice Mayor D.3 [email protected]
Scott Perkins Council Member [email protected] Mark Armstrong Council Member D2 [email protected] Sabina Zafar Council Member D4 [email protected]
Cc: Joe Gorton City [email protected]
Karen McHenry-Smith Executive Assistant [email protected]
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Contra Costa County General Plan Update:
Policy Suggestions from Environmental Advocates
In order for Contra Costa County to adapt and thrive in the face of the climate crisis, the General Plan needs to set goals that are not just incremental, but ambitious and transformative. Clear measurables must be included to support the following concepts from our original vision letter that we shared in the Fall of 2019. Building on our original vision, below are some specific policy language suggestions for each item outlined in our vision
1. Protect, restore and preserve our natural spaces and water: open space, hillsides, riparian habitats, vernal pools, waterways, shorelines, wetlands, sloughs, and green infrastructure.
● Preserve and protect hillsides and vistas. Identify and create an inventory of areas in the County with significant natural habitat, open space and recreation resources and promote conservation, preservation and environmental rehabilitation of these lands. Work with property owners to acquire or dedicate those lands that could be preserved as open space.
● Develop hillside development guidelines that will ensure construction activities retain natural vegetation and topography and minimize grading of hillside.
Minimize soil depletion and prevent erosion.
● Require all new construction to protect and restore natural features such as waterways, creeks & wetlands in urban areas as a means of connecting residents with nature and reversing damage to natural systems. Where feasible, restore creek corridors in urban areas. Creeks currently diverted in culverts or hardened channels should be restored to their natural state.
● Prohibit the use of invasive plant species such as broom and ivies, especially adjacent to wetlands, riparian areas, or other sensitive habitat. Require landscaping that incorporates native, drought-tolerant plants and sustainable maintenance practices and standards. Provide trees on residential & mixed-use streets. Ensure a 3 to 1 replacement of all trees removed. Plant trees to shade county buildings, businesses and residential homes to reduce energy use and sequester carbon. Require green infrastructure such as impervious surfaces to reduce stormwater runoff and provide swales and retention basins. ● Require new development and significant remodels to reduce the waste of potable water through the use of efficient technology, recycled water plumbing (purple pipe), and conservation efforts that minimize the County’s dependence on imported water and conserve groundwater resources.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Contra Costa General Plan Update: Policy Suggestions from Environmental Advocates 2 2. Plan for more equitable outcomes for residents, prioritizing the needs of disadvantaged and historically marginalized communities ● Develop a plan to transition from toxic industries to clean industries that offer good-wage jobs that are accessible by biking, walking and public transportation.
Include a local hiring incentive or requirement.
● Mitigate historic and current toxic uses adjacent to frontline communities through brownfield clean up, buffer zoning for open space in and around disadvantaged communities, and developing high-quality urban parks in disadvantaged communities
● Work with local Native American tribes to protect recorded and unrecorded cultural and sacred sites and to educate developers and the community at large about the connections between Native American history and the environmental features of our local landscape.
3. Take bold action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, sequester carbon, and transition to a carbon-free economy;
● Require implementation of a Climate Action and Resiliency Plan, that includes a baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory for both community wide and county operations, that is reviewed and adjusted on an annual basis to ensure GHG reduction goals are met or exceeded. The Inventory shall provide a business-as-usual forecast for GHG emissions for 2020 and 2030 and beyond if needed. The GHG emissions reduction target will align with Executive Order B 55 80, committing to net zero carbon by 2045 and will include commitment to SB100, 100% zero carbon energy by 2045.
● Establish a goal: “County leadership in addressing the climate crisis”. This goal will commit to 1) leadership in promoting new initiatives and innovative strategies that meet and exceed state requirements; 2) proactive education of residents and businesses about the importance of these actions; 3) Participation with other jurisdictions and organizations to develop effective regional solutions and regulation at regional, state and federal levels; 4) Collaboration with residents, businesses, public agencies and neighboring jurisdictions, in order to meet or exceed state requirements for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. ● Establish a goal: “Climate-Resilient Communities”. While the impacts of climate change on local communities are uncertain, to the extent possible, prepare to respond to and protect residents and businesses from increased risks of natural disasters and extreme weather events such as flooding or drought.
4. Strengthen community and natural environment resiliency through climate adaptation and emergency planning efforts
● Name and address climate action explicitly, and incorporate Climate Action Plan goals and strategies within the General Plan.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Contra Costa General Plan Update: Policy Suggestions from Environmental Advocates 3 ● Incorporate the climate adaptation and resilience strategies in the San Francisco Bay Shoreline Adaptation Atlas, into all relevant policies to protect environmental quality and public health and safety, with a focus on disadvantaged communities.
● Identify all infrastructure, particularly industrial infrastructure, at risk of floods, seismic/liquefaction risk and enhanced wildfire risk due to climate change.
Require needed safety upgrades identified in hazard mitigation assessment and emergency preparedness policies and procedures and hold public meetings to discuss these plans and ensure widespread understanding and confidence in these plans.
5. Protect and improve our agricultural lands and associated economy ● Implement the policy recommendations from "Recommendations on Reforming Agricultural Land Use Policies in Contra Costa County" document from Fall 2019.
● Preserve agricultural lands for sustained crop production, grazing and farming.
Encourage local organic food production on commercial farms and through micro farming in community gardens and private yards. Protect viable topsoils to ensure working landscapes. Incentivize regenerative farming practices. ● Adopt farmland mitigation programs aimed at preserving farmland while giving agricultural landowners the opportunity to recover equity in their property without developing it. These should be coordinated among localities so as to create a level playing field and prevent developers from playing one jurisdiction against its neighbors. LAFCOs can help do this by adopting their own policy of requiring cities to mitigate farmland loss as a condition of annexation. ● Encourage small-scale food production, such as community gardens and cooperative neighborhood growing efforts, on parcels within the city limits, provided that the operations do not conflict with existing adjacent urban uses.
Collaborate with water suppliers and wastewater treatment plant operators to increase the availability of treated or recycled water for agricultural purposes.
6. Ensure transit-oriented development, focus economic development near housing or transit, reduce vehicle miles traveled and promote equitable access to jobs and services, especially for disadvantaged communities
● Strengthen the urban limit line, and preserve lands along the line. ● Create a jurisdiction-wide program for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and vehicle miles traveled that incentivizes carbon sequestration, zero-emission buildings and vehicles, soil building agricultural activities, and natural based shoreline adaptation measures and social resilience;
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Contra Costa General Plan Update: Policy Suggestions from Environmental Advocates 4 ● Expand the green transportation network by encouraging the use of climatefriendly technology, planning growth around multiple modes of travel and reducing automobile reliance. In addition to promoting improved public transit, partner with private developers to undertake citywide improvements that make active modes of travel, such as walking and bicycling, more comfortable and preferable options. Establish an energy efficient fleet management and operation practices.
● Reduce energy consumption by promoting sustainable land uses and development patterns. Pursue infill development opportunities and encourage the construction of higher-density, mixed-use projects around existing public transit infrastructure, schools, parks, neighborhood-serving retail and other critical services. Incorporate ecologically sustainable practices and materials into new development, building retrofits and streetscape improvements. In areas that are already built-up include affordable and deeply affordable housing, as a means to reduce vehicle miles traveled and greenhouse gas emissions, and facilitate walking, bicycling, and transit use, including through mixed-use corridors and activity centers.
● Work with existing shuttle service providers to coordinate their services with other forms of transit, special events and work centers. Encourage home offices, live/work sites and satellite work centers in appropriate locations. Encourage telecommuting options through public outreach and with new and existing employers, as appropriate and modeled by County policies that encourage telecommuting whenever feasible.
● Coordinate with ride-sharing programs to provide up-to-date lists of potential riders and to educate the public on commuting options. Encourage the development of employer-funded vanpool and shuttle bus services to new employment centers. Encourage employer provision of information on alternative modes of transit. Encourage employers to offer flextime arrangements to their employees in order to reduce the percentage of trips made during peak hours.
7. Prioritize efficient land use and house every resident ethically and affordably through new housing production, tenant protection, and existing housing preservation
● We recognize that the housing element is not part of this current update and will have more comments when the housing element is updated in the future.
8. Ensure accountability to the goals and priorities laid out in the General Plan. ● Add a section to all staff reports that reviews impact on sustainability, resiliency, and equity; as well as fiscal impact.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element) Contra Costa General Plan Update: Policy Suggestions from Environmental Advocates 5 ● Mandate annual reporting on general plan progress be posted on the front page of the county website with a clear dashboard that indicates progress on implementation plans. And clear visuals of how the county is meeting its greenhouse gas reduction goals.
● Conduct annual outreach events to the communities identified as disadvantaged per SB1000 to update on progress and elicit community comment and guidance for future action.
● Provide for systematic reviews of General Plan progress and associated metrics that are transparent, engage the community, and demonstrate measurable equitable outcomes consistent with the Plan’s intent.
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Attachment: A: Draft HE Written Public Comments (3680 : Housing Element)
SAN RAMON: RETAIL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS
Prepared for: City of San Ramon, California
May 23, 2022
PREPARED BY:
THE NATELSON DALE GROUP, INC .
YORBA LINDA, CA • www.natelsondale.com
O: 714.692.9596 • F: 714.692.9597
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table of Contents
I. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1 II. Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................... 3 Comparison of 2017 and 2022 Study Findings.................................................................................................... 3 Recovery from the pandemic economy and longer-term prospects for new retail development..................... 3 SWOT summary................................................................................................................................................... 4 Policy/strategy framework for San Ramon’s retail future .................................................................................. 5 III. Retail Market Analysis............................................................................................................................... 13 Retail Market areas in general .......................................................................................................................... 13 Existing patterns of retail/food-service business sales volumes .................................................................. 14 Concentrations of regional-level shopping activity....................................................................................... 18 Evolving retail industry affects prospects for development......................................................................... 19 Varying projected growth patterns............................................................................................................... 20 Area around San Ramon ................................................................................................................................... 22 San Ramon..................................................................................................................................................... 22 Danville.......................................................................................................................................................... 23 Dublin ............................................................................................................................................................ 23 Pleasanton..................................................................................................................................................... 23 Livermore ...................................................................................................................................................... 24 Alamo ............................................................................................................................................................ 24 Major Trends and Concepts Considered in Retail Demand Analysis................................................................ 27 Overview of Forecasting Approach................................................................................................................... 29 Summary of Key Findings.................................................................................................................................. 29 Appendix A – Retail Demand Model (Baseline Scenario)
Appendix B – Retail Demand Model (Leakage-Recapture Scenario) Appendix C – Prospective Retail Tenants (preliminary illustrative list) Cover Photo Credits: "Bishop Ranch City Center Interior" by Wayne Hsieh – Own work. Licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0 via Flickr.com – https://flic.kr/p/2kQfjoh
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1 I. Introduction
This report addresses market demand conditions and related policy/strategy recommendations to optimize future retail development opportunities in the City of San Ramon.
Chapter 2 provides an Executive Summary of the study findings and preliminary recommendations. Chapter 3 and the report appendices provide the detail market conditions analysis and development demand projections. San Ramon’s retail development potentials are discussed in the context of the larger retail trade region of which San Ramon is a part. Retail opportunities are initially reviewed with respect to the entire Interstate 680 corridor from Pleasanton (and including Livermore) north to the Bay. Future retail development opportunities in San Ramon are described through a detailed retail demand and supply modeling process, and in terms of the potential effects of a mix of countervailing market factors, including the following:
• Global trends within the retail industry (a constraining influence) • San Ramon’s substantial existing “leakage” of resident retail demand (potentially a positive factor) • Modest projected population growth (generally a constraining factor) • Expected evolution of Bishop Ranch (potentially a positive factor) While retail development in and around San Ramon is relatively mature, office and industrial development is still evolving, and currently driven by firms, and also workers, moving eastward from the high-cost Silicon Valley area. This movement has been spurred on by the pandemic, which has consequently created a particularly dynamic market situation at present.
The retail market analysis is part of a larger market study (summarized as a separate report) that also addresses office, industrial and hotel land uses. To provide context for the retail study conclusions, the key findings of the overall market study are briefly summarized on Table I-1 on the next page.
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2 TABLE I-1. SUMMARY OF LONG-TERM DEMAND/DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN SAN RAMON Land Use
Existing Inventory/
Vacancy Rate
Potential Future Demand based on
Optimizing Opportunities
(Net New Space through 2040)
Nature of Projected Development
Opportunities
Retail 2.7 million SF
(5.5% vacant)
San Ramon
currently accounts
for 8.7% of the
total East Bay retail
inventory
1,100,000 square feet to
1,800,000 square feet
Range of estimated future demand
is based on considerations
described in the right-hand column.
• Incremental demand incidental to
population growth
• Potential recapture of a portion of San
Ramon’s existing/substantial leakage
• Creation of mixed-use village areas
(e.g., within Bishop Ranch) that can
remain viable in a “post brick-andmortar” retail world Office 9.5 million SF
(15.8% vacant)
San Ramon
currently accounts
for 12% of the total
East Bay office
inventory
Based on current market trends
(high office vacancy levels
throughout Bay Area,
slow/uncertain return of remote
workers to former workplaces, and
office rent levels that fall far short
of supporting the cost of new office
construction), foreseeable demand
for new office development is likely
to be minimal for at least 10 years
(especially for “speculative” office
spaced not tied to a specific large
tenant/user).
For long-term planning purposes,
San Ramon might expect to attract
500,000 to 750,000 square feet of
new office space by 2040.
• San Ramon’s potential for major office
development over the next 20 years
will likely require a “game changer”
such as the attraction of large anchor
tenants
• Related to the above, San Ramon can
potentially capitalize on the overall
decentralization of Bay Area
employment that may result as a longterm consequence of the pandemic • Given a likely densification of San
Ramon’s employment areas, future
office development will require less
land area per building square foot
Industrial 801,000 SF
(12.7% vacant)
San Ramon
currently accounts
for less than 0.5%
of the East Bay
industrial inventory
San Ramon is essentially a nonplayer in the large (and growing) East Bay industrial market, so
projecting future demand based on
past trends is highly speculative. For
long-term planning purposes, San
Ramon might expect to attract
250,000 to 500,000 square feet of
new industrial space by 2040.
• Within the overall envelop of industrial
buildings types, San Ramon should
target the flex/R&D sub-market
• Demand potential would be enhanced
by attracting major tech or life
sciences users (i.e., spillover from
Silicon Valley or spinoffs from
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory)
Hotel 1,147 rooms in
San Ramon
(74.1% occupancy
in 2019; 51.4% in
2021)
Demand for new hotel
development in San Ramon is
projected to reach 317 rooms by
2040. Most of this demand will be
absorbed by two recently approved
hotels (totaling 259 rooms).1
• Existing room inventory constant the
past 20 years in San Ramon – no new
facilities since 2002
• Approved (unbuilt) hotels will absorb
all anticipated demand through at
least 2030.
1 Recently approved (but unbuilt) hotels include 169-room hotel in City Center and 90-room hotel in San Ramon Village Specific Plan area.
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3 II. Executive Summary
This retail market study – prepared by The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (TNDG) – is being conducted as part of the City of San Ramon’s General Plan Update process. It is intended to provide an update to a 2017 study prepared by BAE Urban Economics.2 For brevity, the two reports are referenced as the “2017 BAE study” and the “2022 TNDG study.”
Key findings and recommendations from the study are summarized below and on Tables ES-1 through ES-7.
Comparison of 2017 and 2022 Study Findings: How have existing conditions and future projections changed?
As summarized on Table ES-1, key retail market conditions in 2017 and 2022 compare as follows:
• San Ramon’s retail inventory has grown from 2.3 million square feet to 2.7 million square feet, with this increase largely attributable to the development of the City Center project in 2018. • Rent growth has slightly outpaced inflation.
• The retail vacancy rate has increased from 2.8% to 5.5%, in large part due to the pandemic. • In 20193 total retail sales in San Ramon equated to a capture rate of 71% of resident retail demand; this capture rate compares to an estimated 65% in 20154 . The increase represents a significant
recapture of demand leakage based on the success of the new (2018) City Center project. • In 2015, total retail leakage (i.e., resident purchases lost to other cities) was estimated at $371 million (excluding Motor Vehicle and Gasoline sales); by 2019, the City’s capture of resident demand had improved, with total leakage decreasing to about $280 million. • The 2017 study projected future development opportunities by 2035 to range between 600,000 and
1.2 million square feet; the 2022 study shows stronger potential demand growth, ranging from 800,000 to 1.4 million square feet. It should be noted that these projections do not assume full recapture of San Ramon’s existing demand leakage (which would be unrealistic given competing retail centers in the larger regional trade area); the projections are primarily driven by expected population growth within the primary and second market areas considered in the analysis.
Tables ES-2 through ES-5 provide more detailed comparisons between the 2017 BAE study and the 2022 TNDG study (with the overall findings further broken down by major retail sales category).
Recovery from the pandemic economy and longer-term prospects for new retail development As is widely understood in the real estate and economic development professions, the retail industry was already undergoing dramatic changes – primarily induced by the ongoing growth in ecommerce – prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, as the “pandemic economy” unfolded, the shift from brick-and-mortar retail to online shopping accelerated significantly. In San Ramon, total taxable retail sales in 2020 were a full 15% lower than in 2019. At the time, much discussion and speculation focused on the potential for at least a portion of 2 City of San Ramon Retail Analysis Report dated January 27, 2017. 3 The 2022 study uses 2019 as the base year, in order avoid distortions associated with short-term impacts of the pandemic (COVID-19). 4 For both the 2017 and 2022 studies, the indicated capture rates exclude the Motor Vehicle and Gasoline sales categories (since these uses are not typically found in shopping center/storefront locations).
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4 these sales impacts to be permanent (on the premise that consumers would more fully incorporate the convenience of online shopping into their lifestyles). As it turned out, the retail industry (in most sales categories) rebounded strongly in the latter part of 2020 and into 2021. As shown on Table ES-6, taxable retail sales in San Ramon in 2021 had recovered to 94% of 2019 levels (even when adjusted for inflation); if the Motor Vehicle and Gasoline sales categories5 are excluded from the calculations, inflation-adjusted taxable sales in San Ramon in 2021 were actually slightly higher than in 2019.
While it is clear that ecommerce will have continuing impacts on traditional retail shopping, it is no longer a foregone conclusion that prospects for new shopping center development will remain permanently bleak. In addition to the encouraging rate of local recovery from the pandemic, the following indications (nationally)6 are positive for brick-and-mortar retail activity:
• Retail vacancy rates (nationally) are now at their lowest level for at least a decade, having steadily declined since 2012 (with a slight but temporary uptick during the pandemic). • Comparing Q1 2022 to Q1 2021, in-store purchases (nationally) grew at a higher rate (11.5%) than ecommerce sales (10.2%).
• In 2021, U.S. retail chains announced twice as many store openings as closings, reversing the trend of the prior several years.
• “Digital natives” (i.e., retailers that started with an online-only presence) are increasingly expanding into physical stores.
Notwithstanding the above indications of retail industry strength, it is important to note that TNDG’s projections of future development demand are intentionally conservative. As detailed in Chapter 3, the future year forecasts assume that San Ramon’s capture rates of resident (and regional) retail demand will remain well below the theoretical maximum of 100%. The conservative capture rate assumptions provide a “margin” in the analysis to allow for additional future incursions of ecommerce into physical retail sales. The conservative capture rates also reflect a regional retail environment in which other communities have already to some extent “staked their claim” to San Ramon’s resident demand – a pattern which is likely to be difficult to fully overcome. Moreover, as described in greater detail in the SWOT summary below, the reality of San Ramon’s limited supply of developable land places significant practical constraints on the amount of new retail space that the City can realistically expect to attract in the future.
SWOT summary
Table ES-7 compares the strength-weakness-opportunity-threat (SWOT) assessment from the 2017 BAE study to updated conditions documented by the 2022 TNDG study. Overall, most of the SWOT conditions identified by BAE remain applicable. The following points warrant special attention:
• San Ramon’s large daytime population of higher-income workers (as exemplified by Bishop Ranch) is a significant strength from a retail demand perspective. Aggressive economic development efforts by 5 It is appropriate to treat the Motor Vehicle and Gasoline sales categories separately since these types of businesses are not typically located in shopping centers or storefront retail space. 6 See https://nrf.com/blog/us-retailers-announced-many-store-openings-in-2021 and CBRE report “Retail Recovery Continues in Q1 (2022).”
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5 the City (to retain and attract key employment-generating industries) can help to maintain this competitive advantage.
• San Ramon’s limited supply of developable land is likely the single greatest constraint on future retail development in the City.
• In the absence of major greenfield development opportunities, maintaining the City’s retail/sales tax base will largely depend on strengthening the viability of existing retail centers. As older centers become less competitive, the City is likely to face increasing pressure to redevelop these properties with residential development (as is already reflected in the City’s draft 2023-2031 Housing Element).
Policy/strategy framework for San Ramon’s retail future The following points provide a broad framework for retaining and growing San Ramon’s retail sales tax base.
This framework will be more fully developed later in the General Plan Update (GPU) process.
1. Incentivize reinvestment in existing retail properties to maintain San Ramon’s retail footprint in response to market pressure to replace retail commercial space with residential development.
Whereas additional residential development would potentially enhance the City’s demand for retail facilities, the finite supply of commercial land in the City will require that the City carefully balance zoning policies to allow for appropriate housing development opportunities without creating a net loss in the City’s commercial development capacity. (Note: TNDG will be preparing a pro forma financial analysis later in the GPU process that will inform policy decisions around mixed-use development, development densities, development standards such as parking requirements, and potential City incentives. All of these factors can influence the viability of positioning residential development entitlements as an incentive for maintaining a significant retail footprint in a mixed-use setting.)
2. Invest in a sustained retail tenant recruitment/marketing campaign. Appendix C provides a preliminary/illustrative list of potential candidate tenants.
3. Continue City’s comprehensive/holistic approach to economic development, recognizing the potential value of promoting mixed-use “villages” that effectively integrate residential, retail/entertainment, and employment land uses.
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6 Table ES-1
Comparison of Key Findings
2017 and 2022 San Ramon Retail Studies
Variable 2017 BAE Study 2022 TNDG Study Comments
Total inventory of retail space (citywide) 2.3 million
square feet
(3Q 2016)
2.7 million
square feet
(3Q 2021)
Inventory expanded by development of City
Center project (in Bishop Ranch) in late 2018
Average asking rent per square foot $2.50
(3Q 2016)
$2.83
(3Q 2021)
Total rent growth of 13% has slightly
outpaced inflation (10%) for this 5-year
period
Overall retail vacancy rate 2.8%
(3Q 2016)
5.5%
(3Q 2021)
San Ramon vacancy rates generally mirror
East Bay trends for this period, with vacancies
increasing during the pandemic (but
stabilizing in 2021)
Total demand leakage
(2015 versus 2019, adjusted for inflation)
$371.3 million $280.5 million Development of City Center project resulted in re-capture of a significant portion of
previous leakage
Percentage capture of resident retail demand
(2015 versus 2019)
65% 71% Development of City Center project increased
San Ramon’s capture rate of resident retail
demand
Supportable square feet of new retail space
by 2035 (square feet) – LOW SCENARIO
600,000 800,000 San Ramon has increased its capture of
resident and regional retail spending; TNDG’s
analysis reflects these higher capture rates
(which are applied to future population
growth)
Supportable square feet of new retail space
by 2035 (square feet) – HIGH SCENARIO
1,200,000 1,400,000
Source: TNDG, BAE.
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7 Table ES-2
Analysis of Existing Capture of Resident Retail Demand
City of San Ramon
Resident Actual Existing (2019) Additional Space
Retail Sales Category Demand in 2019 Sales in 2019 Capture Rate Supportable (2) Shopper Goods/GAFO (1):
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $89,881,462 $21,707,211 24% 194,784 General Merchandise $157,306,791 $71,378,369 45% 245,510 Home Furnishings and Appliances $63,405,808 $33,878,947 53% 84,362 Specialty/Other $167,042,186 $88,321,130 53% 224,917
Subtotal $477,636,247 $215,285,658 45% 749,573
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $207,797,016 $208,933,243 101% (1,894) Food Service and Drinking $186,311,190 $132,720,996 71% 89,317 Subtotal $394,108,206 $341,654,239 87% 87,423
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Hardware/Building Materials $84,011,263 $118,315,224 141% 0 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $184,483,414 $39,258,757 21% N/A Gasoline Stations $112,826,181 $92,080,558 82% (3) N/A
Subtotal $381,320,858 $249,654,539 65% 0
Total $1,253,065,310 $806,594,436 64% 836,996
Total, excluding Motor Vehicles and Gasoline $955,755,715 $675,255,121 71% 836,996 (1) GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other. (2) Additional retail space that could theoretically be supported in San Ramon as of 2019 if all leakage of resident retail demand were fully recaptured. (3) Indicated capture rates are as of 2019; capture rate for Gasoline Sales will substantially increase with opening of Costco gas station in March 2022.
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8 Table ES-3
Square Feet of New Retail Space Supportable in San Ramon by 2035
EXCLUDING MOTOR VEHICLE AND GASOLINE SALES
TNDG Compared to BAE
Dollar Attraction (Leakage) Effective Capture Rates
Retail Sales Category 2015 (1) 2019 2015 2019
Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories ($92,472,255) ($68,174,251) 10% 24% General Merchandise ($138,128,725) ($85,928,421) 34% 45% Home Furnishings and Appliances ($24,376,863) ($29,526,861) 68% 53% Specialty/Other ($60,941,078) ($78,721,055) 62% 53%
Subtotal ($315,918,922) ($262,350,589) 42% 45%
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage ($13,134,216) $1,136,227 94% 101%
Food Service and Drinking ($71,454,706) ($53,590,194) 65% 71% Subtotal ($84,588,922) ($52,453,966) 80% 87%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Hardware/Building Materials $29,183,431 $34,303,961 131% 141% Subtotal $29,183,431 $34,303,961 131% 141%
Total ($371,324,412) ($280,500,594) 65% 71%
(1) From BAE study; dollar amounts have been adjusted to 2019 dollars for comparability.
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9 Table ES-4
Square Feet of New Retail Space Supportable by 2035
City of San Ramon
TNDG Compared to BAE
TNDG BAE
Retail Sales Category Low High Low High
Shopper Goods:
GAFO (1) 320,186 685,604 434,000 867,000
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 183,813 232,188 53,000 107,000
Food Service and Drinking 113,562 317,376 92,000 183,000 Subtotal 297,375 549,564 145,000 290,000
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Hardware/Building Materials 190,471 190,471 N/A N/A
Automotive Parts 9,772 9,772 N/A N/A
Gasoline Stations N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 200,243 200,243 N/A N/A
Total Retail Space 817,804 1,435,411 579,000 1,157,000
(1) GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other.
Source: TNDG and BAE.
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10 Table ES-5
Supportable Square Feet of New Retail Space
City of San Ramon
Baseline Scenario Leakage-Recapture Scenario
(Existing Capture Rates Maintained) (Increased Capture Rates) Retail Sales Category 2035 2040 2035 2040
Shopper Goods:
GAFO (1) 320,186 449,203 685,604 864,885
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 183,813 257,203 232,188 312,251
Food Service and Drinking 113,562 159,740 317,376 391,638 Subtotal 297,375 416,944 549,564 703,889
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Hardware/Building Materials 190,471 266,766 190,471 266,766 Automotive Parts 9,772 13,557 9,772 13,557
Gasoline Stations N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 200,243 280,323 200,243 280,323
Total Retail Space 817,804 1,146,470 1,435,411 1,849,097 (1) GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other.
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc.
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11 Table ES-6
Taxable Sales in 2019 and 2021
City of San Ramon
2019
2019 Taxable Sales 2021
Business Type Taxable Sales (in 2021 dollars) Taxable Sales 2021/2019 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $39,258,757 $41,217,277 $24,086,494 58% Home Furnishings and Appliance Stores $33,878,947 $35,569,082 $31,450,287 88% Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers $118,315,224 $124,217,670 $122,372,548 99% Food and Beverage Stores $63,313,104 $66,471,634 $69,102,521 104% Gasoline Stations $92,080,558 $96,674,223 $71,698,500 74% Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $21,707,211 $22,790,129 $39,032,059 171% General Merchandise Stores $54,906,438 $57,645,581 $56,686,176 98% Food Services and Drinking Places $132,720,996 $139,342,109 $128,326,268 92% Other Retail Group $73,600,942 $77,272,706 $81,153,993 105% Total Retail and Food Services $629,782,177 $661,200,410 $623,908,846 94% Total, excluding Motor Vehicle and Gasoline categories $498,442,862 $523,308,910 $528,123,852 101% Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration; TNDG.
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12 Table ES-7. Retail Market SWOT Conditions
2017 BAE Study compared to 2022 TNDG Study
SWOT Conclusions from 2017 BAE Report 2022 Update on SWOT Conditions
STRENGTHS
Strong household incomes and high education levels Still applies Large, diverse employment base Still applies in general; however, San Ramon’s position may be weakened over time due to potential long-term increase in remote work and repositioning of major office parks (e.g., Bishop Ranch) Forecasted population and employment growth Still applies; population growth may actually exceed earlier projections if rezoning occurs to accommodate higher housing density; employment growth will depend on aggressive economic development programming
WEAKNESSES
Location between two strong regional retail nodes Still applies; successful development (in 2018) of City Center retail project has mitigated this weakness to some degree
Sites are built out at key I-680 intersections Still applies; limited land/site availability remains a key constraint Retail base on west side of I-680 (relatively weak position vis-à-vis market demand sources)
Still applies
OPPORTUNITIES
City Center is a key (planned) project, providing specialty retail and entertainment uses
Project has been operational since late 2018; expected to be fully occupied by end of 2022; has successfully broadened San Ramon’s retail tenant mix and re-captured a significant portion of resident demand leakage; provides model for future mixed-use/village retail development in San Ramon
Repurposing underperforming centers to strengthen retail overall Still applies as an urgent priority to maintain retail competitiveness and sales tax base; City likely to face increasing pressure to rezone older retail properties for residential development
THREATS
Retail sector quickly evolving Still applies, although post-pandemic recovery has been strong and Long term retail consolidation a constraint on demand brick-and-mortar retail is making a comeback to some degree
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13 III. Retail Market Analysis
Retail Market areas in general
To add context to the discussion of retail opportunities and their respective market areas for San Ramon, TNDG first reviewed conditions in the entire Interstate 680 corridor from Pleasanton (and including Livermore) north to the Bay. This region is shown in Exhibit III-1 below. Material that follows in this section generally restricts the region under discussion to as far north as Pleasant Hill. The map also shows the pattern of projected change in population for the period of 2020 to 2030. Similar maps showing baseline population and employment levels and projected change in number of workers are attached at the end of this section (Exhibits III-3 through III-5).
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14 EXHIBIT III-1. PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE, 2020-2030 FOR I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Projections 2040 by Census Tract, 2019; TNDG.
Existing patterns of retail/food-service business sales volumes A historic view of retail/food service sales trends in the region is shown on Figure III-1, with per capita taxable sales figures adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars. The data clearly indicate that the combined East Bay counties of Alameda and Contra Costa outperform San Ramon in both growth of per capita taxable sales in real dollars over time and in amounts. Sales in the East Bay also appear to have been more vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic than sales in California as a whole. Interestingly, taxable sales per capita for the
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15 combined seven cities in the I-680 corridor (including San Ramon), as discussed below (e.g., Figures II-2 through II-6), exceeded those of the East Bay region by over 25% in 2020.
FIGURE III-1. ANNUAL TOTAL TAXABLE SALES PER CAPITA (ADJUSTED TO 2020 DOLLARS FOR INFLATION) Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, Taxable Sales, by City and County; TNDG.
Taxable sales trends by city are shown in Figure III-2. Note that these numbers represent total taxable sales for each city, adjusted for inflation as in the preceding chart to reflect 2020 dollars. The data highlight the unevenness of sales levels throughout the corridor, both in general and in terms of trends over time, where growth in sales has primarily occurred within Walnut Creek, Dublin, and Livermore. Indications that Livermore’s taxable sales far outperformed the other cities is likely attributable to the opening of the discount shopping center now known as San Francisco Premium Outlets in 2012. Sales at this center could also have been particularly vulnerable to declines due to the pandemic, which also clearly shows up within the chart, for all cities but especially for Livermore, given that purchases at those stores would have been relatively discretionary compared to household essentials. Interestingly, all of the cities that showed the highest levels of sales also showed the most drastic rates of decline during the pandemic. $0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
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$14,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
San Ramon East Bay California
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16 FIGURE III--2. TAXABLE SALES TRENDS IN REAL DOLLARS, I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, Taxable Sales, by City; TNDG.
Hotel and restaurant sales in the corridor communities are shown on Figure III-3, using Economic Census data from 2017. The figure also shows populations of the cities and gives a sense of the relative position of each city with respect to these sales-activity measures. In the chart, San Ramon has one of the highest populations among the cities, but also among the lowest sales in the restaurant categories. It is in the middle/high of the range for hotel sales, with Pleasanton clearly leading in that category. In proportion to their populations, Dublin, Pleasant Hill, and Walnut Creek surpassed the other communities in the restaurant categories (FullService Restaurants are shown as a subcategory of Restaurants and Other Eating Places). $0
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Walnut Creek Pleasant Hill Danville San Ramon
Dublin Pleasanton Livermore
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17 FIGURE III-3. HOTEL AND RESTAURANT SALES, 2017
Source: Economic Census, Accommodation and Food Services: Summary Statistics for the U.S., States, and Selected Geographies, 2017; TNDG.
Throughout the region, the cities (incorporated and unincorporated) also have very uneven patterns of retail activity among themselves, within the various retail categories (see Figure III-4). This means for one thing that local demand for various types of goods and services does not match the pattern of existing establishments in ways that would otherwise be expected in an unencumbered market. Residents and workers do not always have access to necessary and desired goods and services within usual and reasonable travel distances. In these circumstances, cross-shopping is also common among residents of neighboring communities. However, the situation is even more complicated because these charts do not reflect the considerable amount of sales occurring in unincorporated areas of the two counties, amounting to 22 and 36%, respectively, for Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.
Previous studies focused on San Ramon have identified a lack of commercially developable land in the City as one cause of this uneven pattern, at least with respect to San Ramon. 0 10,000
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Danville Dublin Livermore Pleasant
Hill
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Creek
Population
Sales in $1,000
Accommodation Restaurants and other eating places
Full-service restaurants Population (in HHs), 2017
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18 FIGURE III-4. PER CAPITA TAXABLE SALES BY CATEGORY, I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES, 2020 Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, Taxable Sales - Cities by Type of Business (Taxable Table 4); TNDG. https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/dataportal/catalog.htm?subcategory=Taxable%20Sales%20in%20California Concentrations of regional-level shopping activity
Northward from San Ramon, Walnut Creek has regional center stores that include:
• Nordstrom’s
• Macy’s
• Loft Clothing
• Apple Store
Pleasant Hill has a number of retailers associated with community-level or regional shopping, including:
• Kohl’s • Dick’s Sporting Goods
• Marshall’s • Big 5 Sporting Goods
• Ross Dress for Less • Bed, Bath, and Beyond
• Burlington • Target
South of San Ramon, Dublin has a strong representation among sporting goods stores, including:
• REI
• Big 5 Sporting Goods
• The Golf Mart
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
Building Material, Garden Equip.
Clothing & Clothing Accessories
Food and Beverage
Food Services and Drinking Places
Gasoline Stations
General Merchandise
Home Furnishings & Appliances
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Other Retail Group
Pleasant Hill Walnut Creek Danville Dublin San Ramon Pleasanton Livermore
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19 Other regional and community-level shopping outlets in Dublin include:
• Michaels • PetSmart
• Hobby Lobby • T.J. Maxx
• Tesla • Best Buy
• Target
Pleasanton has regional shopping outlets including the following stores at Stoneridge Mall, among others:
• Macy’s • H&M Clothing
• Express Clothing • J. Jill women’s clothing
• Clark’s Shoe Store • Forever 21
• Pottery Barn • American Eagle
• ZARA Clothing • Aerie Women’s clothing
• Torrid Clothing • The Lego Store Stoneridge
• Windsor women’s clothing • JCPenney
• Apple • Chico’s
Notably, there are redevelopment plans for Stoneridge that have been put forth and continue to evolve over the last several years, which include the designation of housing opportunity sites and redevelopment of major retailers’ stores, including Sears and Nordstrom’s, to uses including other retail, fitness, entertainment, and office.7 This kind of redevelopment planning and activity is in line with what would be expected for a welllocated traditional regional mall of this vintage (early 1980s).
In San Ramon, City Center at Bishop Ranch has some regional-level stores, including Pottery Barn and West Elm, and some clothing stores that are regional-destination in nature, such as Anthropologie, but the city is generally lacking in this type of retail compared to its neighbors.
Evolving retail industry affects prospects for development The increasing role of e-commerce (irrespective of the pandemic), lingering effects of the pandemic, and changing consumer preferences over time all challenge the existing viability and future prospects of retail activities, disproportionately among the various business categories as well as specific retailers. While these impacts tend to be universal across the country, the localized effects play out differently according to such factors as the age, configuration, tenant mix, and attractiveness of existing retail centers.
Recent e-commerce statistics shown on Table III-1 indicate that the overall e-commerce share of retail activity, nationally, is between 13 and 14% of sales, with a sizable proportion of the total in Non-Store Retailers,8 as would be expected.
7 JLL marketing brochure, 2021; Pleasanton Planning Commission Agenda Report, February 27, 2019. 8 Establishments in this subsector include mail-order houses, vending machine operators, home delivery sales, door-todoor sales, party plan sales, electronic shopping, and sales through portable stalls (BLS, Industries at a Glance).
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20 TABLE III-1. RETAIL SALES THROUGH E-COMMERCE COMPARED TO TOTALS 2021 Q1 Retail Sales (millions)
Kind of Business Total Store and
Non-store Sales
Total
E-Commerce
% of major
category
% of total
sales
Total Retail Trade $1,472,314 $196,808 13.4% 13.37%
Motor vehicle and parts $354,166 $14,725 4.2% 1.00%
Furniture, building materials, and electronics $183,240 $26,464 14.4% 1.80% Furniture and home furnishings $4,412 2.4% 0.30%
Electronics and appliances $15,988 8.7% 1.09%
Building materials, garden equipment and supplies $6,064 3.3% 0.41% Clothing and general merchandise $267,936 $31,046 11.6% 2.11% Clothing and clothing accessories $13,180 4.9% 0.90%
General merchandise $17,866 6.7% 1.21%
All other $497,325 $15,341 3.1% 1.04%
Food and beverage $6,913 1.4% 0.47%
Health and personal care $2,140 0.4% 0.15%
Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and
books
$2,878 0.6% 0.20%
Miscellaneous including gasoline stations $3,410 0.7% 0.23% Nonstore retailers $169,647 $109,232 64.4% 7.42%
Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau, Table 1. Supplemental Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Trade Sales - Total and E-commerce, 2021 Q1, 2; TNDG. E-commerce sales are defined by the Census Bureau as “sales of goods and services where the buyer places an order, or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated, over an Internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online.” Blank cells mean no data available.
Varying projected growth patterns
Market-area communities in Alameda County are expected to have considerably higher increases in population and employment (especially with respect to Dublin) over the next 10 years than San Ramon and other communities in Contra Costa County. Projected household growth is shown on Figure III-5 for the I-680 corridor cities. All other things being equal, this growth pattern would make Dublin, especially, and Livermore and Pleasanton more attractive than San Ramon to prospective retailers and shopping center developers.
Within the other Contra Costa County I-680 corridor communities, residential and job growth are projected to be generally modest with the exception of Walnut Creek.
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21 FIGURE III-5. PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD GROWTH THROUGH 2040 FOR I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Projections 2040 by Census Tract, 2019; TNDG. https://services3.arcgis.com/i2dkYWmb4wHvYPda/arcgis/rest/services/pba2040_projections_tract_hh_pop/FeatureServ er
0 5,000
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Dublin Danville Pleasant Hill
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22 Area around San Ramon
The cities of San Ramon, Danville, Dublin, and Pleasanton, along with the unincorporated community of Alamo, are addressed below. Exhibit III-2 shows the boundaries of these communities along with the location of some of their primary shopping centers.
EXHIBIT III-2. SAN RAMON AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; USGS GNIS; TNDG.
San Ramon
Previously identified retail challenges. Previous studies focused on San Ramon have identified clear evidence of retail leakage in numerous categories, including general merchandise, home furnishings, clothing, restaurants, and miscellaneous other retail, as well as motor vehicle dealers. This observation is also cursorily confirmed by reviewing the per capita sales numbers on Figure III-4, above. Part of this problem relates to the current attractiveness and adaptability of some existing centers in the City, including the tendency for center
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23 activities to convert from retail uses to service and other non-retail functions. An example of this is in evidence at a center which actually has imposed a separate type of challenge to the City: Blackhawk Plaza, a 250,000 square-foot lifestyle center located in the unincorporated Blackhawk community located less than 1 mile beyond the City boundaries, convenient to local residents but not part of the City’s retail inventory. The center appears to be undergoing a transition from retail to service functions, which would generally not enhance its status as a lifestyle center. In the process, it would also reduce opportunities for existing centers within the City to make this transition.
San Ramon is particularly lacking in auto-related sales. Because of the large sites typically required for automobile businesses, attempting to build this capacity in the City may not be a practical option. Even if it were, however, auto sales may be challenged in the near future for multiple reasons, including the growing popularity of electric vehicles, some of which may be sold in unconventional venues (and tend to require less scheduled service of the type typical in current dealerships), and the advent of autonomous vehicles, some of which may be deployed in fleets by large providers rather than owned privately.
Retail strength. San Ramon appears to be capturing patronage from outside the City for the category of Building Materials and Garden Equipment and Supplies (Figure III-4).
Competitive position based on projected growth. Modest growth is projected for San Ramon as well as Danville, to the north, while to the south Dublin is expected to add roughly 7,000 households in the next 10 years. Pleasanton and Livermore combined are expected to add an additional 6,000 households between 2020 and 2030. San Ramon businesses could capture some additional resident demand based on growth projected for unincorporated areas to the east (see also Exhibit III-1).
Competitive strength due to the presence of local jobs. San Ramon has a relatively high concentration of jobs in the City, as indicated by the ratio of the number of jobs to number of households: 1.92 in 2020, which is higher than the average for the I-680 corridor cities of 1.48. This relatively high number of jobs supplements the customer base for local businesses.
Danville
Retail strengths and weaknesses. Danville appears to be capturing patronage from outside the city for the category of General Merchandise Stores, and lags other cities in the Building Material category.
Dublin
Retail strengths and weaknesses. On a per-capita-sales basis, Dublin outperforms San Ramon in every retail category except Food and Beverage Stores. Auto sales are particularly strong there, although Walnut Creek is the leader for the region.
Competitive position based on projected growth. As noted above, Dublin is projected to increase population and employment to a considerably greater degree than its neighboring cities (both in absolute numbers and rate of growth).
Pleasanton
Competitive strength due to the presence of local jobs. Pleasanton has the most jobs of all the I-680 corridor cities, at 65,185, and also a considerably higher ratio of jobs to households, at 2.41 in 2020, than all of the
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24 other corridor communities. Job growth is projected to be relatively modest, at less than 3% over 10 years, a rate similar to projected job growth for San Ramon.
Retail strengths and weaknesses. On a per-capita-sales basis, Pleasanton outperforms San Ramon in every retail category except Building Materials. The relatively high levels of jobs in the city could explain some of this competitive advantage, but is unlikely to be a factor in certain categories, particularly Home Furnishings, Motor Vehicles, and Clothing.
Livermore
Retail strengths. Livermore exhibits strong sales in the General Merchandise category, and in Clothing Stores, all of which likely relate primarily to the presence of the San Francisco Premium Outlets shopping center – a large center of retail discount stores that appears to be successful but by its nature is not directly competitive to stores in San Ramon.
Alamo
General retail conditions. Taxable retail sales for this unincorporated community can be estimated by using data from the 2017 Census of Retail Trade which, when combined with other sales information for the communities within the I-680 corridor, indicate that the retail base in the community generally meets about 2/3rds of the community’s resident demand. This increment of unmet demand (equivalent to roughly 1,700 households) will likely be met in stores in neighboring communities, with Walnut Creek establishments having the primary advantage based on proximity. Some of this unmet demand could be captured by stores in San Ramon.
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25 EXHIBIT III-3. BASE EMPLOYMENT, 2020 FOR I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Projections 2040 by Census Tract, 2019; TNDG.
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26 EXHIBIT III-4. BASE POPULATION, 2020 FOR I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Projections 2040 by Census Tract, 2019; TNDG.
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27 EXHIBIT III-5. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, 2020-2030 FOR I-680 CORRIDOR COMMUNITIES Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Projections 2040 by Census Tract, 2019; TNDG.
Major Trends and Concepts Considered in Retail Demand Analysis Future retail development opportunities in San Ramon will be influenced by a mix of countervailing factors, including the following:
• Global trends within the retail industry (negative influence): Brick-and-mortar shopping facilities (and the major retail chains that have traditionally served as anchor tenants) have increasingly been impacted by the growth in e-commerce and this trend has been exacerbated by the Covid 19
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28 pandemic. Whereas this ongoing trend is generally expected to reduce the “footprint” of retail buildings (especially in communities such as San Ramon which have not established themselves as major regional shopping destinations), opportunities will still exist for specialized commercial districts focused on activities that are not directly competing with online shopping (e.g., “experiential retail”).
As older retail facilities are compelled to reposition themselves in the current market environment (potentially downsizing or converting to other land uses), future retail development can focus on these specialized shopping/dining/entertainment concepts.
• San Ramon’s substantial existing “leakage” of resident retail demand (potentially a positive factor):
As documented by TNDG’s retail demand model (see Appendix A), San Ramon currently retains very small portions of its resident demand in most retail sales categories. Moreover, the City attracts very little external demand from the larger region. Although demand “leakage” is generally considered undesirable from a city’s perspective (since it reflects a lack of local shopping/service amenities for residents and a loss of potential sales tax revenue for the municipality), it can in some ways be thought of as an “untapped potential” that creates opportunities for new development not dependent on future population growth. Whereas it is highly unlikely that San Ramon will ever achieve anything close to 100% capture of its resident demand (since well-established regionally shopping destinations in other communities will likely always attract some of San Ramon’s purchasing power), the magnitude of San Ramon’s existing leakage (especially in the sales categories typically associated with destinationoriented shopping) is so large that even a modest recapture of this demand would translate into significant amounts of supportable space. Broader economic trends in the region (e.g., the likely transition/downsizing of some retail centers in competitor cities and expected increase in remote workers) are likely to create a scenario in which more people are likely to shop closer to home, suggesting that a modest recapture of “leaked” resident demand is a feasible prospect for San Ramon. • Modest projected population growth (generally a constraining factor): San Ramon and the immediately surrounding unincorporated communities are largely built out, resulting in the expectation of relatively modest future population growth. For the primary retail trade area defined for this study (see map on Exhibit III-6), official population forecasts from ABAG suggest an average annual growth rate of about 0.6% over the next 20 years (or total growth of about 13% through 2040).
In percentage terms, this is not what would typically be considered “dynamic” growth. However, it still translates to about 12,000 new trade area residents which, over time, will create significant incremental demand for resident-serving retail facilities.9 • Expected evolution of Bishop Ranch (potentially a positive factor): Billed as “Northern California’s premiere business park,” Bishop Ranch is likely to continue to strongly influence San Ramon’s development/business image in the coming years. According to sources interviewed for this study, 9 It should be noted that the ABAG forecasts were formulated prior to the release of data from the 2020 Census. Recently released Census estimates indicate that the ABAG forecasts substantially under-predicted population growth in San Ramon. San Ramon’s population in 2020 was estimated by the Census at 84,605 persons, whereas the ABAG forecast projected a population of only 76,485 by 2020. To adjust for this undercounting, the population forecasts used for this analysis apply the ABAG growth rates to higher base-year (2020) population estimates derived from other data sources. In any event, the population forecasts in this study are likely to be somewhat conservative, especially given the potential for increasing residential development densities in San Ramon.
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29 Bishop Ranch is expected to intensify its current development model as a mixed-use complex, toward a higher-density “village” that would lend itself to an expanded range of high-caliber employment, residential, and “lifestyle” commercial activities. This “next generation” of Bishop Ranch will potentially create opportunities to continue to expand upon retail development concepts and tenant types not previously well represented in San Ramon (giving credence to the idea that recapture of at least a portion of historic demand leakage is a realistic possibility).
Overview of Forecasting Approach
Given that this market analysis is being conducted in support of the City’s General Plan update, it is appropriate for the projections to cover a long-term planning horizon and to reflect a forecasting methodology that is relatively aggressive (so as not to underestimate – from a land use planning perspective – the amounts of land San Ramon might ultimately need to devote to retail development). TNDG’s retail demand analysis, fully documented in Appendices A and B, considers a 20-year forecast period (through 2040) and incorporates the following major steps:
1. Define primary and second market areas (PMA and SMA) from which retail facilities in San Ramon can potentially attract market demand;
2. Estimate San Ramon’s existing capture/leakage rates of resident retail demand in each major retail sales category;
3. Forecast future development demand (expressed in square footages of supportable retail space) based on two scenarios:
a. A “baseline” scenario that calculates incremental demand based strictly on population growth (with San Ramon’s capture rates of potential demand projected to remain at the existing relatively low levels through 2040); and
b. A “leakage-recapture” scenario that calculates future retail demand based on incremental population growth and increased market shares (capture rates). As described below, even under the recapture scenario, capture rates are projected to remain well below the theoretical maximum of 100%. The assumption of capture rates well below 100% also incorporates the expectation that online sales will increasingly impact demand for brick-and-mortar retail facilities.
Summary of Key Findings
Exhibit III-6 and Tables III-2 through III-5 provide a succinct summary of TNDG’s retail demand analysis (see Appendices A and B for details).
Trade Area Definitions. For purposes of the demand analysis, TNDG has defined the following potential trade areas for San Ramon:
• Primary Market Area (PMA) – the City of San Ramon and the immediately adjacent unincorporated communities of Norris Canyon, Camino Tassajara, and Blackhawk
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30 • Secondary Market Area (SMA) – the Town of Danville As described elsewhere in this report, these trade areas reflect San Ramon’s geographic position within a larger regional trade area and the locations of major competitive retail facilities in neighboring communities.
Exhibit III-6 below provides a map of the PMA and SMA.
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31 EXHIBIT III
-6.DEFINED MARKET AREAS
Source: TNDG.
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32 Existing Retail Market Conditions. To put the future demand projections into perspective, Table III-2 highlights existing conditions for San Ramon’s existing commercial retail market. As of third quarter 2021, San Ramon had an estimated total inventory of approximately 2.7 million square feet of retail space, with a relatively healthy vacancy rate of 5.5%. For the 12-month period ended September 30, 2021, net absorption (i.e., the net change in occupied retail space) in San Ramon was 61,900 square feet. As a point of context, if that absorption rate were maintained over the 20-year forecast horizon of this study, it would translate into demand for approximately 1.2 million square feet of new retail space.
TABLE III-2. SNAPSHOT OF RETAIL MARKET CONDITIONS, CITY OF SAN RAMON, THIRD QUARTER 2021 Square Feet
Total Retail Space 2,700,000
12-Month Net Absorption 61,900
Vacancy Rate 5.5%
Source: CoStar/TRI Commercial.
The primary shopping centers in San Ramon are shown on Exhibit III- 7 and listed on Table III-3 (on the next two pages). Total area for these centers is just under 1.8 million SF. The total retail area of 2.7 million SF (Table III-2) includes other smaller centers and freestanding retail space.
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33 EXHIBIT III
-7.EXISTING SHOPPING CENTERS IN SAN RAMON
Source: TRI Commercial; Loopnet; TNDG.
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34 TABLE III-3. EXISTING SHOPPING CENTERS IN SAN RAMON
# Commercial Center Name Year Built RBA (1) Available
SF (2) Vacancy Anchor Tenants
1 Crow Canyon Commons 1980 245,518 18,462 7.5% Sprouts, Ace Hardware, Total Wine, Rite Aid, Big 5 Sporting Goods 2 The Shops at Bishop Ranch 2000 211,728 6,366 3.0% Whole Foods and Target 3 The Marketplace at San Ramon 1988 180,217 6,446 3.6% Trader Joe's and CVS 4 Diablo Plaza 1984-1986 170,835 11,501 6.7% Safeway and CVS 5 Country Club Village 1994 113,913 16,040 14.1% Walmart Neighborhood Market and CVS 6 Gateway Centre 1995 110,440 23,786 21.5% Lucky and Dollar Tree Store 7 The Plaza at Gale Ranch 2007 99,787 9,700 9.7% Safeway 8 San Ramon Courtyard Center 1997 69,000 9,372 13.6% The Bath Studio, Enterprise Rent-a-car, Crown Billiards 9 Twin Canyon Shopping Center 1980-1981 57,238 N/A N/A Vijetha Indian Supermarket/Swagruha Foods and Ace Auto Repair 10 Magnolia Square Shopping
Center 1989 41,913 2,467 5.9% Petco and Ulta Beauty
11 Orchard Supply Center 1989 39,213 N/A N/A Sports Basement 12 San Ramon Square 1979-1980 33,984 N/A N/A Namaste Plaza Indian Supermarket, Mountain Mike’s 13 Canyon Lakes Shopping Center 1989 28,700 N/A N/A Fusion Cash and Carry (Indian Grocery Store) 14 Bollinger Crossing 1997-1998 24,910 0 0.0% Clementine's 15 Norris Canyon Business Park 1989 24,646 12,645 51.3% Wallbeds N More, Erik's Deli, Regal Cinema 16 Point West Center 1990 17,417 N/A N/A
17 Crow Canyon Shopping Place 1981 15,404 N/A N/A
18 City Center Bishop Ranch 2018 285,525 0 0.0% The LOT City Center, Equinox, Pottery Barn, Williams Sonoma and West Elm
Totals / Vacancy 1,770,388
(1) Rentable Building Area (RBA) is compiled from 2017 BAE report. (2) Available Square Footage (SF) compiled from TRI Commercial and Loopnet data. (3) N/A = Not Available
Source: TRI Commercial; Loopnet; TNDG.
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35 Regional retail market conditions, for areas north and south of San Ramon, are summarized in Table III-4. The numbers provide additional context for the retail situation in San Ramon.
TABLE III-4. RETAIL MARKET SUMMARY, TRI-VALLEY AND CENTRAL CONTRA COSTA Market Indicator Tri-Valley
Central Contra
Costa
Total Retail 8,978,306 5,343,927
Vacancy 8.3% 4.8%
Market Rents $30.95 $32.14
Source: Colliers International, Retail Market Report, Spring 2020; CoStar, 12/13/2021 TRI Commercial (San Ramon figures).
San Ramon’s Existing Capture of Resident Retail Demand. Table III-5 summarizes San Ramon’s existing capture of resident retail demand.10 For each major retail sales category, the table compares theoretical demand (based on population and income levels in the PMA) to actual retail sales in San Ramon in 2019 (TNDG has chosen 2019 as the base year in order to avoid short-term market distortions that occurred in 2020 due to the pandemic). The analysis shows that, overall, San Ramon captures only about half (51%) of its theoretical resident demand (note that the capture/leakage calculations on Table III-5 are based solely on demand within the Primary Market Area and do not include demand associated the Secondary Market Area).
For individual sales categories, capture rates range from a low of 17% (i.e., 83% leakage) in the Motor Vehicles and Parts Dealers group to over 100% (suggesting some capture of external/SMA demand) in the Building Materials/Hardware category. San Ramon’s existing leakage represents “untapped” demand that could theoretically support additional retail space in the city. In total, San Ramon’s existing leakage equates to nearly
1.4 million square of supportable retail space as of the 2019 base year of this analysis. It should be emphasized that this is a highly theoretical number (since it is unlikely that San Ramon would ever achieve anything close to 100% capture of its resident retail demand), but it is useful for putting the future demand forecasts into perspective.
10 Note that the leakage analysis summarized on Table III-5 differs somewhat from the summary presented in Chapter 2.
The Chapter 2 summary strictly focused on demand associated with City residents; whereas Table III-5 reflects a larger primary market area that includes San Ramon plus adjacent unincorporated areas.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Retail Development Opportunities Analysis
City of San Ramon
36 TABLE III-5. ANALYSIS OF EXISTING CAPTURE OF RESIDENT RETAIL DEMAND, SAN RAMON PRIMARY MARKET AREA (PMA) Retail Sales Category
Theoretical
Demand in 2019
PMA (1)
Actual Sales in
2019
Effective
Existing
Capture
Rate
Additional Space
(Square Feet)
Supportable by
Leakage (2)
Shopper Goods/GAFO (3):
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $109,643,215 $21,707,211 20% 251,246 General Merchandise $203,623,113 $71,378,369 35% 377,842 Home Furnishings and Appliances $78,316,582 $33,878,947 43% 126,965 Specialty/Other $203,623,113 $88,321,130 43% 329,434
Subtotal $595,206,022 $215,285,658 36% 1,085,487
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $234,949,746 $208,933,243 89% 43,361
Food Service and Drinking $234,949,746 $132,720,996 56% 170,381 Subtotal $469,899,491 $341,654,239 73% 213,742
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl., Garden Equip. and
Supplies $109,643,215 $118,315,224 108% 0
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $234,949,746 $39,258,757 17% 88,061(4) Gasoline Stations $156,633,164 $92,080,558 59% N/A
Subtotal $501,226,124 $249,654,539 50% 88,061
Total $1,566,331,637 $806,594,436 51% 1,387,290
(1) Primary Market Area (PMA) includes the City of San Ramon and the unincorporated communities of Blackhawk, Camino Tassajara, and Norris Canyon.
(2) Square footages of additional retail space that could theoretically be supported in San Ramon as of 2019 if all leakage were fully recaptured.
(3) GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other. (4) Supportable square footage is for Auto Parts stores (not automobile dealerships).
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (See Appendix A)
Future Capture Rate Scenarios. Table III-6 shows the future capture rate assumptions that have been applied to the two forecasting scenarios.
For the baseline scenario, PMA capture rates for each retail sales category are projected to permanently remain at the existing relatively low levels implied by the leakage analysis. Under the baseline scenario, San Ramon is projected to capture no significant/net demand from the SMA (with the exception of the Building Materials/Hardware category in which San Ramon is currently estimated to capture the equivalent of 15% of SMA demand).
For the more aggressive leakage-recapture scenario, San Ramon’s capture rates of PMA demand are projected to modestly increase starting in 2030 (and remain at the higher levels through 2040). The leakage-recapture scenario assumes that San Ramon would achieve nominal (2%) capture rates of SMA demand in key shopping/dining categories. This scenario also includes a demand “bump” associated with San Ramon’s daytime employee population (see Tables B-12 and B-13 of Appendix B).
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Retail Development Opportunities Analysis
City of San Ramon
37 TABLE III-6. CAPTURE RATE SCENARIOS, SAN RAMON TRADE AREAS Retail Sales
Category
Baseline Scenario (1) (Existing Capture
Rates Maintained)
Leakage-Recapture Scenario (2)
(Increased Capture Rates 2030-2040)
PMA (3) SMA (4) PMA SMA
Shopper
Goods/GAFO
Clothing and
Clothing
Accessories
20% 0% 35% 2%
General
Merchandise 35% 0% 45% 2%
Home Furnishings
and Appliances
43% 0% 50% 2%
Specialty/Other 43% 0% 50% 2%
Convenience
Goods:
Food and Beverage 89% 0% 95% 0%
Food Service and
Drinking 56% 0% 85% 2%
Heavy Commercial
Goods:
Bldg. Matrl.,
Garden Equip. and
Supplies
100% 15% 100% 15%
Motor Vehicle and
Parts Dealers 17% 0% 17% 0%
Gasoline Stations 59% 0% 70% 0%
(1) Baseline scenario calculates incremental retail demand based strictly on projected population growth (capture rates remain at existing relatively low levels through 2040). (2) Leakage-recapture scenario calculates incremental retail demand based on population growth AND increased market shares (capture rates). Even under the recapture scenario, capture rates are well below the theoretical maximum of 100%. The assumption of capture rates well below 100% reflects the expectation that online sales will increasingly impact demand for brick-and-mortar retail facilities. (3) Primary Market Area (PMA) includes the City of San Ramon and the unincorporated communities of Blackhawk, Camino Tassajara, and Norris Canyon.
(4) Secondary Market Area (SMA) includes the Town of Danville.
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (See Appendix A).
Supportable Square Feet of New/Incremental Retail Space. Table III-7 summarizes TNDG’s 2030 and 2040 demand projections for the two forecast scenarios.
Under the more conservative baseline scenario, San Ramon could support 530,000 square feet of additional retail space by 2030 and 1.1 million square feet (cumulatively) by 2040. These numbers represent net increases over and above the city’s existing retail space inventory.
Under the leakage-recapture scenario, San Ramon could support 1.1 million square feet of additional retail space by 2030 and 1.8 million square feet (cumulatively) by 2040.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Retail Development Opportunities Analysis
City of San Ramon
38 TABLE III-7. SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET OF NEW/INCREMENTAL RETAIL SPACE, CITY OF SAN RAMON Retail Sales
Category
Baseline Scenario
(Existing Capture Rates Maintained)
Leakage-Recapture Scenario
(Increased Capture Rates 2030-2040)
2030 2040 2030 2040
Shopper Goods
GAFO (1) 207,376 449,203 528,811 864,885
Convenience
Goods:
Food and Beverage 119,641 257,203 162,181 312,251
Food Service and
Drinking 73,184 159,740 252,436 391,638
Subtotal 192,825 416,944 414,617 703,889
Heavy Commercial
Goods:
Bldg. Matrl.,
Garden Equip. and
Supplies
123,716 266,766 123,716 266,766
Automotive Parts* 6,463 13,557 6,463 13,557
Gasoline Stations N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 130,179 280,323 130,179 280,323
Total Retail Space 530,380 1,146,470 1,073,607 1,849,097 (1) GAFO = General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture and Other.
Source: The Natelson Dale Group, Inc. (See Appendix A).
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Appendix A
Retail Demand Model
(Baseline Scenario)
2.1.b
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-1
Population Estimates and Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Primary Market Area 93,281 94,140 95,007 98,555 99,463 100,787 103,807 106,990 Secondary Market Area 42,870 43,092 43,315 44,219 44,448 45,376 46,563 47,781 Total 136,151 137,232 138,322 142,774 143,911 146,163 150,369 154,771 Source: ESRI; ABAG; TNDG.
Table A-2
Per Capita Income Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
In constant dollars
2021
Money income
Primary Market Area $75,248
Secondary Market Area $89,632
Annual Increase Factor 2.00% 2019-2020 only
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Primary Market Area $72,377 $73,825 $75,248 $81,451 $83,080 $89,928 $99,288 $109,622 Secondary Market Area $86,213 $87,937 $89,632 $97,021 $98,961 $107,119 $118,268 $130,577 Source: ESRI; TNDG.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-3
Total Income and Potential Retail Sales Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Percent of Income Spent on Retail:
Primary Market Area 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% Secondary Market Area 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% Total Income:
Primary Market Area $6,751,429 $6,949,877 $7,149,087 $8,027,420 $8,263,373 $9,063,601 $10,306,759 $11,728,508 Secondary Market Area $3,695,941 $3,789,379 $3,882,410 $4,290,157 $4,398,617 $4,860,579 $5,506,844 $6,239,036 Total $10,447,371 $10,739,255 $11,031,497 $12,317,578 $12,661,991 $13,924,180 $15,813,602 $17,967,544 Potential Retail Sales:
Primary Market Area $1,566,332 $1,612,371 $1,658,588 $1,862,362 $1,917,103 $2,102,755 $2,391,168 $2,721,014 Secondary Market Area $820,499 $841,242 $861,895 $952,415 $976,493 $1,079,048 $1,222,519 $1,385,066 Total $2,386,831 $2,453,613 $2,520,483 $2,814,776 $2,893,596 $3,181,804 $3,613,687 $4,106,080 Source: TNDG.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-4
Distribution of Retail Sales by Retail Category
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
%Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% General Merchandise 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Specialty/Other 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Subtotal 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Food Service and Drinking 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Subtotal 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Gasoline Stations 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Subtotal 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TNDG, based on historic trends (2019 taxable sales) reported by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration for Contra Costa County and California.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-5
Projected Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail Category San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 General Merchandise 203,623 209,608 215,616 242,107 249,223 273,358 310,852 353,732 Home Furnishings and Appliances 78,317 80,619 82,929 93,118 95,855 105,138 119,558 136,051 Specialty/Other 203,623 209,608 215,616 242,107 249,223 273,358 310,852 353,732 Subtotal $595,206 $612,701 $630,263 $707,697 $728,499 $799,047 $908,644 $1,033,985 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $234,950 $241,856 $248,788 $279,354 $287,565 $315,413 $358,675 $408,152 Food Service and Drinking 234,950 241,856 248,788 279,354 287,565 315,413 358,675 408,152 Subtotal $469,899 $483,711 $497,576 $558,708 $575,131 $630,827 $717,350 $816,304 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 234,950 241,856 248,788 279,354 287,565 315,413 358,675 408,152 Gasoline Stations 156,633 161,237 165,859 186,236 191,710 210,276 239,117 272,101 Subtotal $501,226 $515,959 $530,748 $595,956 $613,473 $672,882 $765,174 $870,724 Total $1,566,332 $1,612,371 $1,658,588 $1,862,362 $1,917,103 $2,102,755 $2,391,168 $2,721,014 Source: TNDG.
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Packet Pg. 83
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-6
Projected Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail Category San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $57,435 $58,887 $60,333 $66,669 $68,355 $75,533 $85,576 $96,955 General Merchandise 106,665 109,361 112,046 123,814 126,944 140,276 158,928 180,059 Home Furnishings and Appliances 41,025 42,062 43,095 47,621 48,825 53,952 61,126 69,253 Specialty/Other 106,665 109,361 112,046 123,814 126,944 140,276 158,928 180,059 Subtotal $311,790 $319,672 $327,520 $361,918 $371,067 $410,038 $464,557 $526,325 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $123,075 $126,186 $129,284 $142,862 $146,474 $161,857 $183,378 $207,760 Food Service and Drinking 123,075 126,186 129,284 142,862 146,474 161,857 183,378 207,760 Subtotal $246,150 $252,373 $258,569 $285,724 $292,948 $323,715 $366,756 $415,520 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $57,435 $58,887 $60,333 $66,669 $68,355 $75,533 $85,576 $96,955 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 123,075 126,186 129,284 142,862 146,474 161,857 183,378 207,760 Gasoline Stations 82,050 84,124 86,190 95,241 97,649 107,905 122,252 138,507 Subtotal $262,560 $269,197 $275,806 $304,773 $312,478 $345,296 $391,206 $443,221 Total $820,499 $841,242 $861,895 $952,415 $976,493 $1,079,048 $1,222,519 $1,385,066 Source: TNDG.
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Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-7
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales Expressed in Percentages San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% General Merchandise 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% Specialty/Other 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% Food Service and Drinking 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% Gasoline Stations 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 85
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-8
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales Expressed in Percentages San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% General Merchandise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Specialty/Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Food Service and Drinking 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gasoline Stations 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: TNDG.
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Packet Pg. 86
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-9
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $26,073 $26,839 $29,439 $33,476 $38,094 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 84,737 87,228 95,675 108,798 123,806 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 40,041 41,218 45,209 51,410 58,502 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 104,106 107,166 117,544 133,666 152,105 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $254,957 $262,451 $287,867 $327,351 $372,507 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $248,625 $255,933 $280,718 $319,221 $363,255 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 156,438 161,037 176,631 200,858 228,565 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $405,064 $416,970 $457,349 $520,079 $591,820 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 109,879 113,109 124,063 141,079 160,540 Subtotal $241,998 $249,111 $256,252 $287,735 $296,192 $324,876 $369,435 $420,397 Total $797,106 $820,536 $844,055 $947,756 $975,614 $1,070,092 $1,216,865 $1,384,724 Source: TNDG.
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Packet Pg. 87
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-10
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 General Merchandise00000000
Home Furnishings and Appliances00000000
Specialty/Other00000000
Subtotal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Food Service and Drinking00000000
Subtotal $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $10,000 $10,253 $11,330 $12,836 $14,543 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers00000000
Gasoline Stations00000000
Subtotal $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $10,000 $10,253 $11,330 $12,836 $14,543 Total $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $10,000 $10,253 $11,330 $12,836 $14,543 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 88
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-11
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - All Market Areas Combined In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $26,073 $26,839 $29,439 $33,476 $38,094 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 84,737 87,228 95,675 108,798 123,806 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 40,041 41,218 45,209 51,410 58,502 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 104,106 107,166 117,544 133,666 152,105 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $254,957 $262,451 $287,867 $327,351 $372,507 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $248,625 $255,933 $280,718 $319,221 $363,255 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 156,438 161,037 176,631 200,858 228,565 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $405,064 $416,970 $457,349 $520,079 $591,820 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $121,699 $125,151 $140,366 $144,450 $158,523 $180,218 $205,014 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 109,879 113,109 124,063 141,079 160,540 Subtotal $250,613 $257,944 $265,302 $297,735 $306,446 $336,206 $382,272 $434,940 Total $805,721 $829,369 $853,105 $957,756 $985,867 $1,081,422 $1,229,702 $1,399,267 Source: TNDG.
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Packet Pg. 89
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-12
"Extra" Daytime Population with Employment Pattern
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Retail Category
Factor
Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 1.00
General Merchandise 1.00
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1.00
Specialty/Other 1.00
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 1.00
Food Services and Drinking 1.00
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 1.00
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 1.00
Gasoline Stations 1.00
Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 90
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-13
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Resident and Tourist/Visitor Demand Combined In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $26,073 $26,839 $29,439 $33,476 $38,094 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 84,737 87,228 95,675 108,798 123,806 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 40,041 41,218 45,209 51,410 58,502 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 104,106 107,166 117,544 133,666 152,105 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $254,957 $262,451 $287,867 $327,351 $372,507 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $248,625 $255,933 $280,718 $319,221 $363,255 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 156,438 161,037 176,631 200,858 228,565 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $405,064 $416,970 $457,349 $520,079 $591,820 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $121,699 $125,151 $140,366 $144,450 $158,523 $180,218 $205,014 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 109,879 113,109 124,063 141,079 160,540 Subtotal $250,613 $257,944 $265,302 $297,735 $306,446 $336,206 $382,272 $434,940 Total $805,721 $829,369 $853,105 $957,756 $985,867 $1,081,422 $1,229,702 $1,399,267 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 91
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-14
Comparison of Potential Retail Demand with Estimated Sales City of San Ramon
in thousands of constant dollars
(Using 2019 figures to avoid Covid distortions)
2019 Expected Percent
Retail Category 2019 Estimated Less Actual/
Demand Sales Actual Expected
Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $21,707 $221 99.0% General Merchandise $71,268 71,378 (110) 100.2%
Home Furnishings and Appliances $33,676 33,879 (203) 100.6% Specialty/Other $87,558 88,321 (763) 100.9%
Subtotal $214,431 $215,286 ($855) 100.4%
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $208,933 $172 99.9%
Food Service and Drinking $131,572 132,721 (1,149) 100.9% Subtotal $340,677 $341,654 ($977) 100.3%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $118,315 ($57) 100.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $39,941 39,259 683 98.3% Gasoline Stations $92,414 92,081 333 99.6%
Subtotal $250,613 $249,655 $959 99.6%
Total $805,721 $806,594 ($873) 100.1%
Source: CDTFA; TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 92
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-15
Net New Supportable Retail Sales (based on 2019 existing sales) City of San Ramon
in thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $221 $866 $1,513 $4,366 $5,132 $7,731 $11,769 $16,387 General Merchandise (110) 1,985 4,087 13,359 15,850 24,297 37,420 52,428 Home Furnishings and Appliances (203) 787 1,781 6,162 7,339 11,330 17,531 24,623 Specialty/Other (763) 1,810 4,394 15,785 18,845 29,223 45,345 63,784 Subtotal ($855) $5,448 $11,775 $39,672 $47,166 $72,582 $112,065 $157,221 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $172 $6,318 $12,488 $39,692 $47,000 $71,785 $110,288 $154,322 Food Service and Drinking (1,149) 2,718 6,600 23,717 28,316 43,910 68,137 95,844 Subtotal ($977) $9,037 $19,089 $63,409 $75,316 $115,695 $178,425 $250,166 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies ($57) $3,384 $6,836 $22,050 $26,135 $40,208 $61,903 $86,699 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 683 1,857 3,035 8,231 9,627 14,362 21,716 30,127 Gasoline Stations 333 3,049 5,776 17,799 21,028 31,982 48,998 68,459 Subtotal $959 $8,290 $15,647 $48,081 $56,791 $86,551 $132,617 $185,285 Total ($873) $22,774 $46,511 $151,162 $179,272 $274,828 $423,107 $592,673 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 93
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-16
Sales Per Square Foot Standards
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Expressed in Sales/Square Feet
Retail Category Sales/Square Feet
GAFO* $350
Food and Beverage $600
Food Service and Drinking $600
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $325
Automotive Parts $200
*GAFO: General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture/Appliances, Other/Specialty Source: Retail Maxim; Urban Land Institute (ULI); TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 94
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table A-17
Net Demand for Retail Space
City of San Ramon
Expressed in Square Feet
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
GAFO (2,442) 15,566 33,643 113,348 134,759 207,376 320,186 449,203 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 287 10,531 20,814 66,153 78,333 119,641 183,813 257,203 Food Service and Drinking (1,915) 4,530 11,001 39,529 47,193 73,184 113,562 159,740 Subtotal (1,629) 15,061 31,814 105,682 125,526 192,825 297,375 416,944 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies (175) 10,412 21,033 67,848 80,416 123,716 190,471 266,766 Automotive Parts* 307 836 1,366 3,704 4,332 6,463 9,772 13,557 Gasoline Stations N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 133 11,247 22,399 71,552 84,748 130,179 200,243 280,323 Total Retail Space (3,938) 41,874 87,857 290,582 345,033 530,380 817,804 1,146,470 *Assumes that automotive parts stores account for 9% of sales in overall Automotive group category (based on statewide average).
Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 95
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Appendix B
Retail Demand Model
(Leakage-Recapture Scenario)
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 96
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-1
Population Estimates and Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Primary Market Area 93,281 94,140 95,007 98,555 99,463 100,787 103,807 106,990 Secondary Market Area 42,870 43,092 43,315 44,219 44,448 45,376 46,563 47,781 Total 136,151 137,232 138,322 142,774 143,911 146,163 150,369 154,771 Source: ESRI; ABAG; TNDG.
Table B-2
Per Capita Income Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
In constant dollars
2021
Money income
Primary Market Area $75,248
Secondary Market Area $89,632
Annual Increase Factor 2.00% 2019-2020 only
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Primary Market Area $72,377 $73,825 $75,248 $81,451 $83,080 $89,928 $99,288 $109,622 Secondary Market Area $86,213 $87,937 $89,632 $97,021 $98,961 $107,119 $118,268 $130,577 Source: ESRI; TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 97
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-3
Total Income and Potential Retail Sales Projections
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Area 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040
Percent of Income Spent on Retail:
Primary Market Area 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% Secondary Market Area 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% Total Income:
Primary Market Area $6,751,429 $6,949,877 $7,149,087 $8,027,420 $8,263,373 $9,063,601 $10,306,759 $11,728,508 Secondary Market Area $3,695,941 $3,789,379 $3,882,410 $4,290,157 $4,398,617 $4,860,579 $5,506,844 $6,239,036 Total $10,447,371 $10,739,255 $11,031,497 $12,317,578 $12,661,991 $13,924,180 $15,813,602 $17,967,544 Potential Retail Sales:
Primary Market Area $1,566,332 $1,612,371 $1,658,588 $1,862,362 $1,917,103 $2,102,755 $2,391,168 $2,721,014 Secondary Market Area $820,499 $841,242 $861,895 $952,415 $976,493 $1,079,048 $1,222,519 $1,385,066 Total $2,386,831 $2,453,613 $2,520,483 $2,814,776 $2,893,596 $3,181,804 $3,613,687 $4,106,080 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 98
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-4
Distribution of Retail Sales by Retail Category
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
%Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution %Distribution Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% General Merchandise 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Specialty/Other 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% Subtotal 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Food Service and Drinking 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Subtotal 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Gasoline Stations 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Subtotal 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: TNDG, based on historic trends (2019 taxable sales) reported by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration for Contra Costa County and California.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 99
Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-5
Projected Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail Category San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 General Merchandise 203,623 209,608 215,616 242,107 249,223 273,358 310,852 353,732 Home Furnishings and Appliances 78,317 80,619 82,929 93,118 95,855 105,138 119,558 136,051 Specialty/Other 203,623 209,608 215,616 242,107 249,223 273,358 310,852 353,732 Subtotal $595,206 $612,701 $630,263 $707,697 $728,499 $799,047 $908,644 $1,033,985 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $234,950 $241,856 $248,788 $279,354 $287,565 $315,413 $358,675 $408,152 Food Service and Drinking 234,950 241,856 248,788 279,354 287,565 315,413 358,675 408,152 Subtotal $469,899 $483,711 $497,576 $558,708 $575,131 $630,827 $717,350 $816,304 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 234,950 241,856 248,788 279,354 287,565 315,413 358,675 408,152 Gasoline Stations 156,633 161,237 165,859 186,236 191,710 210,276 239,117 272,101 Subtotal $501,226 $515,959 $530,748 $595,956 $613,473 $672,882 $765,174 $870,724 Total $1,566,332 $1,612,371 $1,658,588 $1,862,362 $1,917,103 $2,102,755 $2,391,168 $2,721,014 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 100 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-6
Projected Demand for Retail Sales by Major Retail Category San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $57,435 $58,887 $60,333 $66,669 $68,355 $75,533 $85,576 $96,955 General Merchandise 106,665 109,361 112,046 123,814 126,944 140,276 158,928 180,059 Home Furnishings and Appliances 41,025 42,062 43,095 47,621 48,825 53,952 61,126 69,253 Specialty/Other 106,665 109,361 112,046 123,814 126,944 140,276 158,928 180,059 Subtotal $311,790 $319,672 $327,520 $361,918 $371,067 $410,038 $464,557 $526,325 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $123,075 $126,186 $129,284 $142,862 $146,474 $161,857 $183,378 $207,760 Food Service and Drinking 123,075 126,186 129,284 142,862 146,474 161,857 183,378 207,760 Subtotal $246,150 $252,373 $258,569 $285,724 $292,948 $323,715 $366,756 $415,520 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $57,435 $58,887 $60,333 $66,669 $68,355 $75,533 $85,576 $96,955 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 123,075 126,186 129,284 142,862 146,474 161,857 183,378 207,760 Gasoline Stations 82,050 84,124 86,190 95,241 97,649 107,905 122,252 138,507 Subtotal $262,560 $269,197 $275,806 $304,773 $312,478 $345,296 $391,206 $443,221 Total $820,499 $841,242 $861,895 $952,415 $976,493 $1,079,048 $1,222,519 $1,385,066 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 101 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-7
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales Expressed in Percentages San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% General Merchandise 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 45.0% 45.0% 45.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Specialty/Other 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 89.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Food Service and Drinking 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 85.0% 85.0% 85.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% Gasoline Stations 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 102 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-8
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales Expressed in Percentages San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% General Merchandise 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Home Furnishings and Appliances 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Specialty/Other 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Food Service and Drinking 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gasoline Stations 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 103 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-9
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Primary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $26,073 $26,839 $51,518 $58,584 $66,665 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 84,737 87,228 123,011 139,883 159,179 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 40,041 41,218 52,569 59,779 68,025 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 104,106 107,166 136,679 155,426 176,866 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $254,957 $262,451 $363,777 $413,672 $470,735 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $248,625 $255,933 $299,643 $340,741 $387,744 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 156,438 161,037 268,101 304,874 346,929 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $405,064 $416,970 $567,744 $645,615 $734,674 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $109,643 $112,866 $116,101 $130,365 $134,197 $147,193 $167,382 $190,471 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 109,879 113,109 147,193 167,382 190,471 Subtotal $241,998 $249,111 $256,252 $287,735 $296,192 $348,006 $395,738 $450,328 Total $797,106 $820,536 $844,055 $947,756 $975,614 $1,279,527 $1,455,026 $1,655,737 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 104 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-10
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Secondary Market Area
In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $0 $0 $0 $1,333 $1,367 $1,511 $1,712 $1,939 General Merchandise000 2,476 2,539 2,806 3,179 3,601
Home Furnishings and Appliances000 952 976 1,079 1,223 1,385 Specialty/Other000 2,476 2,539 2,806 3,179 3,601
Subtotal $0 $0 $0 $7,238 $7,421 $8,201 $9,291 $10,527
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Food Service and Drinking000 2,857 2,929 3,237 3,668 4,155 Subtotal $0 $0 $0 $2,857 $2,929 $3,237 $3,668 $4,155
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $10,000 $10,253 $11,330 $12,836 $14,543 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers00000000
Gasoline Stations00000000
Subtotal $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $10,000 $10,253 $11,330 $12,836 $14,543 Total $8,615 $8,833 $9,050 $20,096 $20,604 $22,768 $25,795 $29,225 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 105 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-11
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - All Market Areas Combined In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $27,406 $28,207 $53,028 $60,295 $68,604 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 87,214 89,767 125,817 143,062 162,780 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 40,993 42,194 53,648 61,002 69,410 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 106,582 109,705 139,485 158,604 180,467 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $262,196 $269,873 $371,977 $422,963 $481,262 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $248,625 $255,933 $299,643 $340,741 $387,744 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 159,296 163,966 271,338 308,541 351,084 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $407,921 $419,899 $570,981 $649,283 $738,829 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $121,699 $125,151 $140,366 $144,450 $158,523 $180,218 $205,014 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 109,879 113,109 147,193 167,382 190,471 Subtotal $250,613 $257,944 $265,302 $297,735 $306,446 $359,336 $408,575 $464,871 Total $805,721 $829,369 $853,105 $967,852 $996,218 $1,302,295 $1,480,821 $1,684,962 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 106 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-12
"Extra" Daytime Population with Employment Pattern
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Retail Category
Factor
Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories 1.07
General Merchandise 1.11
Home Furnishings and Appliances 1.05
Specialty/Other 1.06
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 1.02
Food Services and Drinking 1.05
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies 1.00
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 1.00
Gasoline Stations 1.10
Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 107 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-13
Potential Capture of Market Area Demand for Retail Sales San Ramon Retail Trade Area - Resident and Tourist/Visitor Demand Combined In thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $22,573 $23,220 $29,336 $30,192 $56,761 $64,540 $73,433 General Merchandise 71,268 73,363 75,466 97,141 99,985 140,138 159,346 181,309 Home Furnishings and Appliances 33,676 34,666 35,660 42,946 44,204 56,204 63,908 72,717 Specialty/Other 87,558 90,132 92,715 112,529 115,826 147,267 167,453 190,536 Subtotal $214,431 $220,734 $227,061 $281,952 $290,207 $400,370 $455,247 $517,995 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $215,252 $221,422 $254,101 $261,570 $306,242 $348,246 $396,284 Food Service and Drinking 131,572 135,439 139,321 166,836 171,728 284,183 323,147 367,704 Subtotal $340,677 $350,691 $360,743 $420,937 $433,298 $590,425 $671,393 $763,988 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $121,699 $125,151 $140,366 $144,450 $158,523 $180,218 $205,014 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 39,941 41,115 42,294 47,490 48,886 53,620 60,975 69,386 Gasoline Stations 92,414 95,130 97,857 120,323 123,860 161,183 183,291 208,575 Subtotal $250,613 $257,944 $265,302 $308,179 $317,196 $373,327 $424,484 $482,975 Total $805,721 $829,369 $853,105 $1,011,068 $1,040,701 $1,364,121 $1,551,124 $1,764,958 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 108 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-14
Comparison of Potential Retail Demand with Estimated Sales City of San Ramon
in thousands of constant dollars
(Using 2019 figures to avoid Covid distortions)
2019 Expected Percent
Retail Category 2019 Estimated Less Actual/
Demand Sales Actual Expected
Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $21,929 $21,707 $221 99.0% General Merchandise $71,268 71,378 (110) 100.2%
Home Furnishings and Appliances $33,676 33,879 (203) 100.6% Specialty/Other $87,558 88,321 (763) 100.9%
Subtotal $214,431 $215,286 ($855) 100.4%
Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $209,105 $208,933 $172 99.9%
Food Service and Drinking $131,572 132,721 (1,149) 100.9% Subtotal $340,677 $341,654 ($977) 100.3%
Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $118,258 $118,315 ($57) 100.0% Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $39,941 39,259 683 98.3% Gasoline Stations $92,414 92,081 333 99.6%
Subtotal $250,613 $249,655 $959 99.6%
Total $805,721 $806,594 ($873) 100.1%
Source: CDTFA; TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 109 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-15
Net New Supportable Retail Sales (based on 2019 existing sales) City of San Ramon
in thousands of constant dollars
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
Clothing and Clothing Accessories $221 $866 $1,513 $7,628 $8,485 $35,054 $42,832 $51,726 General Merchandise (110) 1,985 4,087 25,763 28,607 68,760 87,968 109,931 Home Furnishings and Appliances (203) 787 1,781 9,067 10,325 22,325 30,029 38,838 Specialty/Other (763) 1,810 4,394 24,208 27,505 58,946 79,132 102,215 Subtotal ($855) $5,448 $11,775 $66,666 $74,921 $185,084 $239,961 $302,710 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage $172 $6,318 $12,488 $45,168 $52,637 $97,309 $139,313 $187,351 Food Service and Drinking (1,149) 2,718 6,600 34,115 39,007 151,462 190,426 234,983 Subtotal ($977) $9,037 $19,089 $79,283 $91,643 $248,770 $329,738 $422,333 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies ($57) $3,384 $6,836 $22,050 $26,135 $40,208 $61,903 $86,699 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 683 1,857 3,035 8,231 9,627 14,362 21,716 30,127 Gasoline Stations 333 3,049 5,776 28,243 31,779 69,103 91,211 116,494 Subtotal $959 $8,290 $15,647 $58,525 $67,542 $123,672 $174,830 $233,321 Total ($873) $22,774 $46,511 $204,473 $234,106 $557,526 $744,529 $958,364 Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 110 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-16
Sales Per Square Foot Standards
San Ramon Retail Trade Area
Expressed in Sales/Square Feet
Retail Category Sales/Square Feet
GAFO* $350
Food and Beverage $600
Food Service and Drinking $600
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies $325
Automotive Parts $200
*GAFO: General Merchandise, Apparel, Furniture/Appliances, Other/Specialty Source: Retail Maxim; Urban Land Institute (ULI); TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 111 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Table B-17
Net Demand for Retail Space
City of San Ramon
Expressed in Square Feet
Retail Category 2019 2020 2021 2025 2026 2030 2035 2040 Shopper Goods:
GAFO (2,442) 15,566 33,643 190,474 214,061 528,811 685,604 864,885 Convenience Goods:
Food and Beverage 287 10,531 20,814 75,279 87,728 162,181 232,188 312,251 Food Service and Drinking (1,915) 4,530 11,001 56,859 65,011 252,436 317,376 391,638 Subtotal (1,629) 15,061 31,814 132,138 152,739 414,617 549,564 703,889 Heavy Commercial Goods:
Bldg. Matrl. and Garden Equip. and Supplies (175) 10,412 21,033 67,848 80,416 123,716 190,471 266,766 Automotive Parts* 307 836 1,366 3,704 4,332 6,463 9,772 13,557 Gasoline Stations N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Subtotal 133 11,247 22,399 71,552 84,748 130,179 200,243 280,323 Total Retail Space (3,938) 41,874 87,857 394,164 451,548 1,073,607 1,435,411 1,849,097 *Assumes that automotive parts stores account for 9% of sales in overall Automotive group category (based on statewide average).
Source: TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 112 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) 41 APPENDIX C
Prospective Retail Tenants
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 113 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Store Name Category
Existing San
Ramon
location?
(Y/N) East Bay Location(s) if not in San Ramon Nearest Location(s) if Not in East Bay American Eagle Outfitters Apparel and Accessories N Pleasanton, Livermore Ann Taylor Apparel and Accessories N Pleasanton
Athleta Apparel and Accessories Y
Bootbarn Apparel and Accessories N Livermore, Brentwood Fossil Apparel and Accessories N Livermore
Francesca's Apparel and Accessories N Pleasanton, Lafayette H&M Apparel and Accessories N Concord, Dublin, Hayward, Livermore Indochino Apparel and Accessories N San Francisco, San Jose, Roseville Justice Apparel and Accessories N Concord, Pleasanton
Lane Bryant Apparel and Accessories N Pleasanton, Fremont Lululemon Apparel and Accessories N Pleasanton, Walnut Creek, Berkeley Nine West Apparel and Accessories N Alameda
Off Broadway Apparel and Accessories N Sacramento
Old Navy Apparel and Accessories N San Leandro, Walnut Creek, Livermore PacSun Apparel and Accessories N Livermore
Rack Room Shoes Apparel and Accessories N Livermore
Skechers Apparel and Accessories N Livermore, San Leandro, Concord, Oakland Torrid Apparel and Accessories N Livermore, Hayward, Brentwood, Concord, Newark
Under Armour Apparel and Accessories N Livermore
WSS Shoes Apparel and Accessories N Oakland
AutoZone Automotive N Pleasanton
Les Schwab Tire Center Automotive N Livermore, Fremont, Concord, Brentwood, Oakley, Martinez
O'Reilly Auto Parts Automotive Y
Big Lots Discount/Dollar Stores N Dublin
Dollar General Discount/Dollar Stores N Concord, Brentwood Dollar Tree Discount/Dollar Stores Y
CVS Drug Store Y
Zpizza Tap Room Eating and Drinking N
Arby's Eating and Drinking N Tracy, San Jose, Fairfield Ben & Jerry's Eating and Drinking N Oakland, Berkeley
Blaze Pizza Eating and Drinking Y
Buffalo Wild Wings Eating and Drinking N Dublin, Livermore, Hayward, Union City, Concord, Brentwood, Fremont
Café Rio Mexican Grill Eating and Drinking N
Capriotti's Eating and Drinking N
All existing locations are in southern California
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 114 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Store Name Category
Existing San
Ramon
location?
(Y/N) East Bay Location(s) if not in San Ramon Nearest Location(s) if Not in East Bay Carino's Eating and Drinking N Fairfield
Carl's Jr. Eating and Drinking Y
Charley's Grilled Subs Eating and Drinking N Hayward, Concord, Antioch, Brentwood, Newark Chick-Fil-A Eating and Drinking N Pleasanton, Walnut Creek, Fremont, Livermore, Pittsburg
Coffee Bean & Tea Leaf Eating and Drinking N
Cracker Barrel Eating and Drinking N Sacramento
Dickey's Barbecue Pit Eating and Drinking N San Jose
Dunkin' Donuts Eating and Drinking N Walnut Creek, Concord, Oakland, Fremont, Pittsburg
Dutch Bros. Coffee Eating and Drinking N Brentwood, Oakley Einstein Bros Eating and Drinking N Hayward
Famous Dave's Eating and Drinking N Hayward, Alameda
Farmer Boys Eating and Drinking N
Firehouse Subs Eating and Drinking N Fremont, Alameda San Jose, Stockton, Vacaville, Novato Five Guys Burgers & Fries Eating and Drinking N Dublin, Danville, Pleasant Hill, Hayward, Pinole, Concord, Fremont, Alameda, Brentwood
Golden Corral Eating and Drinking N Concord
Great Steak Eating and Drinking N San Francisco, Daly City Hungry Howie's Eating and Drinking N
In-Out-Burger Eating and Drinking Y
It's a Grind Eating and Drinking N Oakland, San Leandro Jack in the Box Eating and Drinking N 22 locations in East Bay Jersey Mike's Subs Eating and Drinking N Dublin, Danville, Pleasanton, San Pablo Joe's Crab Shack Eating and Drinking N Sacramento
Johnny Rockets Eating and Drinking N Livermore, San Jose, Vallejo Juice it Up! Eating and Drinking N
Krispy Kreme Eating and Drinking N Union City, Brentwood, Concord, Fremont L&L Hawaiian Barbeque Eating and Drinking N Union City, Pleasanton, Hayward, Castro Valley, Antioch
Macaroni Grill Eating and Drinking N Milpitas, Roseville, Stockton Maggiano's Eating and Drinking N San Jose
Marie Calendar's Eating and Drinking N Sunnyvale
McCormick & Schmick's Eating and Drinking N San Francisco McDonald's Eating and Drinking Y
MOD Pizza Eating and Drinking Y
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
All existing locations are in southern California
All existing locations are in southern California
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 115 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Store Name Category
Existing San
Ramon
location?
(Y/N) East Bay Location(s) if not in San Ramon Nearest Location(s) if Not in East Bay Mooyah Burger & Fries Eating and Drinking N Walnut Creek Nektar Juice Bar Eating and Drinking N Redwood City, Stockton, Novato, Napa, Modesto Olive Garden Eating and Drinking N Hayward, Pittsburg, Fremont Ono Hawaiian Eating and Drinking N San Leandro, Hayward, Oakland, Fremont, Alameda,
Orange Julius Eating and Drinking Y
Panda Express Eating and Drinking Y
Panera Bread Eating and Drinking Y
Panini Kabob Grill Eating and Drinking N
Pei Wei Eating and Drinking N
Pieology Pizzeria Eating and Drinking N Dublin, Pleasant Hill, San Leandro, Fremont Pinkberry Eating and Drinking N Palo Alto, San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Santa Clara Pizza Factory Eating and Drinking N Oakland
Pizza Rev Eating and Drinking N Walnut Creek
Pizza Studio Eating and Drinking N
Port of Subs Eating and Drinking N Brentwood
Raising Cane's Eating and Drinking N Stockton, Manteca
Red Mango Eating and Drinking N
Robeks Eating and Drinking N Livermore
Rubio's Eating and Drinking N Pleasant Hill
Sbarro Eating and Drinking N
Silverlake Ramen Eating and Drinking N Concord
Smashburger Eating and Drinking N San Jose, San Francisco, Roseville, Sacramento Sonic Drive-in Eating and Drinking N Hayward, Pittsburg Starbucks Eating and Drinking Y
TCBY Eating and Drinking N Pleasanton
Texas Roadhouse Eating and Drinking N Union City
The Habit Burger Grill Eating and Drinking Y
Wendy's Eating and Drinking Y
Which Wich Eating and Drinking N
Wingstop Eating and Drinking Y
Anytime Fitness Fitness N Concord, Berkley
Bay Club Fitness N Walnut Creek, Fremont, Pleasanton
Equinox Fitness Fitness Y
Gold's Gym Fitness N
In-Shape Fitness N Antioch, Brentwood, Concord
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 116 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Store Name Category
Existing San
Ramon
location?
(Y/N) East Bay Location(s) if not in San Ramon Nearest Location(s) if Not in East Bay Planet Fitness Fitness N Walnut Creek, Hayward, Oakland, Antioch, Fremont, Pittsburg, Concord, San Pablo, Pinole
Powerhouse Gym Fitness N Redwood City
Retro Fitness Fitness N
World Gym Fitness N Tracy, Healdsburg
Ashley Furniture Furniture/Household N Concord, Dublin, Emeryville Bassett Furniture/Household N Dublin, Pleasant Hill
Bob's Discount Furniture Furniture/Household N Stockton Ethan Allen Furniture/Household N Dublin, Walnut Creek
Home Goods Furniture/Household Y
Kirkland's Home Furniture/Household N Livermore
Nitori Aki-home Furniture/Household N Cupertino
Burlington General Merchandise N Dublin, Union City
Costco General Merchandise N Danville, Livermore, Hayward, Concord, San Leandro, Antioch, Fremont
Nordstrom Rack General Merchandise N Dublin, Emeryville, Fremont, Pleasant Hill, San Leandro, Walnut Creek
Ross Dress for Less General Merchandise N Dublin, Livermore, Walnut Creek, San Leandro, Hayward, Concord, Oakland, Union City, Pleasant
Hill, Brentwood, Fremont, Newark, Pittsburg,
Alameda, Emeryville
Stein Mart General Merchandise N Walnut Creek
T. J. Max General Merchandise N Dublin, Livermore
Target General Merchandise Y
Wal-Mart General Merchandise Y
Ace Hardware Hardware and Home Improvement Y
Dunn-Edwards Hardware and Home Improvement N Hayward, Pleasant Hill Sherwin-Williams Hardware and Home Improvement Y
The Home Depot Hardware and Home Improvement Y
Sprint Service Y
Verizon Wireless Service Y
Bevmo! Specialty Y
Guitar Center Specialty N Dublin, Concord
Harbor Freight Tools Specialty N Hayward, Fremont, Antioch, Pleasant Hill, Pittsburg
Hobby Lobby Specialty N Dublin, Concord, Antioch
Marshalls Specialty N Danville, Dublin, San Leandro
Party City Specialty N Pleasanton, San Leandro, Brentwood, Fremont, Pleasant Hill, Alameda, Richmond
No existing locations within 50 miles of San Ramon
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 117 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) Store Name Category
Existing San
Ramon
location?
(Y/N) East Bay Location(s) if not in San Ramon Nearest Location(s) if Not in East Bay Petco Specialty Y
Petsmart Specialty N Dublin, San Leandro, Walnut Creek, Concord, Fremont, Pittsburg, Antioch
Sally Beauty Specialty Y
Sephora Specialty Y
Total Wine & More Specialty Y
Tractor Supply Specialty N Brentwood
ULTA Beauty Specialty Y
Five Below Specialty N Concord
Big 5 Sporting Goods Sporting Goods Y
Dick's Sporting Goods Sporting Goods N Dublin, Pleasant Hill, Fremont Hibbett Sports Sporting Goods N Antioch
Roger Dunn Golf Shops Sporting Goods N Dublin, Walnut Creek Aldi Super Market N Fresno
Cardenas/Mi Pueblo Super Market N Hayward, Oakland, Pittsburg Grocery Outlet Super Market N Pleasanton
Raley's/Bel Air Markets Super Market Y (Nob Hill Foods-subsidiary) Safeway/Albertsons Super Market Y (Safeway-not Albersons) Sprouts Farmers Markets Super Market Y
Walmart Neighborhood
Market
Super Market Y
WinCo Foods Super Market N Brentwood, Pittsburg
Sources: Retailers Expanding in California, HdL ECONSolutions, 2020; BAE; TNDG.
2.1.b
Packet Pg. 118 Attachment: B: San Ramon Retail Opportunities Analysis (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
1 Visualizing Floor Area Ratios (FAR) and
Dwelling Units Per Acre (DU/AC) June 15, 2022
• Residential is categorized by
allowed density range
(minimum and maximum)
measured in dwelling units
per acre (du/ac).
• Residential density is
calculated by dividing the
number of dwelling units on
the site (excluding accessory
dwelling units).
Density
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 119 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
2 Floor Area Ratio (FAR)
• The intensity of non-residential
development, which can be
regulated by total building size,
is measured by Floor Area Ratio
(FAR).
• The maximum FAR standard
limits the overall size of
development on a parcel.
• As an example, a maximum FAR
of 0.75 would allow 75,000
square feet of building floor
area on a 100,000-square foot
lot.
1380 North California
Walnut Creek
5.83 FAR | 108 DU/AC
Land: 30900 ft2
Building: 180000 ft2
Housing Units: 77
• Converted from McDonald’s
• Maximum Massing
(Horiz./Vert.)
• Mixed-Use (Office, Retail,
Apartments)
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 120 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
3 406 East Third
San Mateo
3.65 FAR | 20 DU/AC
Land: 10980 ft2
Building: 40152 ft2
Housing Units: 5
• Former KFC
• Maximum Massing
• Mixed-Use (Office, Apartments)
• Under Construction
Ice Blocks
Midtown Sacramento
2.18 FAR | 120 DU/AC
Land: 51401 ft2
Building: 112154 ft2
Housing Units: 142
• Former Industrial Area
• Varied Massing
• Mixed-Use (Office, Retail,
Apartments)
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 121 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
4 Adrian Court
Burlingame
1.81 FAR | 94 DU/AC
Land: 123274 ft2
Building: 222708 ft2
Housing Units: 265
• Former Storage Facility
• Varied Massing
• Mixed-Use (Retail, Apartments)
• Approved
Oceanview Village
San Francisco
1.27 FAR | 50 DU/AC
Land: ~321,200 ft2
Building: ~411,000ft2
Housing Units: 370
• Vertical massing
• Above traditional shopping
center
• Mixed Use (Residential, Retail)
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 122 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
5 Agrihood
Santa Clara
.95 FAR | 62 DU/AC
Land: 252648 ft2
Building: 241000 ft2
Housing Units: 361
• Former Vacant Lot
• Vertical Massing
• Mixed-Use (Open Space, Retail
Apartments)
Bella Terra Shopping Center
Huntington Beach
.47 FAR | 10 DU/AC (excluding Costco)
Land: 2107325 ft2
Building: ~1000000 ft2
Housing Units: 503
• Horizontal Massing
• Lower density
• Mixed-Use (Retail, Apartments)
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 123 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
6 Rose Garden Apartments
Danville
.42 FAR | 22 DU/AC
Land: 109335 ft2
Building: 46168 ft2
Housing Units: 55
• Horizontal, Townhome-style
massing
• Residential Only
Renwick Square Apartments
Elk Grove
.37 FAR | 26 DU/AC
Land: 249599 ft2
Building: 94585 ft2
Housing Units: 150
• Horizontal massing
• Senior apartments
• Previously vacant land
• Walkable to shopping center
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 124 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element) 6/15/2022
7 Broad Street Village
San Luis Obispo
.34 FAR | 8 DU/AC
Land: 423839 ft2
Building: ~144562 ft2
Housing Units: ~75
• Horizontal massing
• Fronts Highway with Retail and
Open Space
• Office and Residential in Back
2.1.c
Packet Pg. 125 Attachment: C- Project Examples- Density and FAR (3680 : Housing Element)