Item No. 4.0.
Supplemental Material
Long-Term
Financial Plan
Introduction
Item No. 9.2.
Introduction
2 ❖ Russ Branson
▪ Founder of Russ Branson Consulting
▪ Former Director of Finance / ACM at City of Roseville ▪ Former consultant with PFM and EPS
❑ 36 Years in the governmental finance field
❑ Managed $500M budget for the City of Roseville
❑ Have worked with many Cities large and small on
budget forecasts and alternatives to address
financial issues
Agenda ▪ Baseline Forecast ▪ Recommendations
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Measure N
▪ In short, Measure N asked for: “ …the City of San Ramon [to] levy a one cent sales tax, providing approximately $16,000,000 annually for 10 years, subject to public review, annual audits, and all funds benefitting San Ramon”
▪ Continuation of the add-on sales tax after 10 years will require voter approval
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4 Baseline Budget
Forecast
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Baseline Forecast
▪ Projection of future budget positions based on maintaining the status quo Includes changes that are happening (e.g., reduction in intergovernmental revenue, franchise fees, existing labor agreements, etc.)
Does not include prospective budget changes (future economic changes, future labor agreements, different growth assumptions – up or down)
▪ Major recent changes impacting the Baseline Budget Forecast:
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6 - Measure N started in FY25
and sunsets in FY35
- End of State Retail Theft
Grant in FY28 (revenue is
$1.3M in FY27)
- Solid waste Franchise Fees
down by $1.9M in FY27
Revenues
- Health benefits artificially
low in FY25 and prior – up
$3.8M in FY27 over FY25
- PERS growth of 6% to 9%
per year in FY27-FY29 and
then flattening out
Expenses
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
$50,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Property Taxes (All Sources)
Revenue Growth |Property Taxes
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7 Revenue Growth |Sales Taxes
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8 $0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Sales Tax Revenues
Sales Measure N Sales Tax
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 State & Federal
Revenue Growth |State & Federal
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9 $0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 TOT
Revenue Growth |TOT (Hotel Tax)
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10 $0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Fees & Charges
Revenue Growth |Fees & Charges
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11 $0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Transfers
Revenue Growth |Transfers In
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12 $0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
$50,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Salaries and Overtime
Salaries & Wages Overtime
Expense Growth |Salaries & OT
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13 $0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Health and Other Benefits
Health Benefits Other Employee Benefits
Expense Growth |Employee Benefits
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14 $0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Retirement
Expense Growth |Retirement
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15 Expense Growth |Materials & Supplies
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16 $0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Materials and Supplies
Materials & Supplies Contract Services Maintenance
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
$9,000,000
$10,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Transfers Out
Expense Growth |Transfers Out
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17 $0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Capital and Vehicle Replacement
Capital Vehicle Replacement
Expense Growth |Capital
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18 Baseline Forecast
▪ The Baseline Forecast shows the City is able to maintain its budget reserves through FY28 ▪ With the end of the Measure N Sales Tax in April FY35, fund balances go negative in FY36 RBConsulting
19 -20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
($15,000,000)
($5,000,000)
$5,000,000
$15,000,000
$25,000,000
$35,000,000
$45,000,000
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 Baseline General Fund Budget Forecast
Reserve Net Revenue Reserve % Reserve Target
<---- Historical Forecast ----->
Recommendations
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20 Recommendations
1. Identify which services are supported by Measure N This will allow the City to:
▪ Communicate clearly with the public about loss of service if Measure N is not extended
2. Implement the Financial Resiliency Framework
▪ Identify additional revenue options
▪ Continue to reduce costs—where possible—without significant impact to the community
3. Annually review City’s position and impact of loss of Measure N in FY35
▪ LTFP will be updated
- Prior to budget development each year
- After budget adoption each year
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21 Questions?
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22