4/23/2024 Item # 2B
CENTA CLAPD
0000000000°
CI
The
Mission City
Santa Clara City Infrastructure
Poll of Likely November 2024
General Election Voters
Presented by:
Ben Tulchin, Corey O'Neil, Corey Teter, Kelsey Bullis,
Asha Gupta & Caroline Joseph
Tulchin Research
April 2024
RESEARCH
Better Data. Better Strategy.
"TULCHIN
April 2024
RESEARCH
Methodology
• Multi-modal citywide survey in Santa Clara, California. • Survey conducted among 400 likely November 2024 voters in the City of Santa Clara.
• Fielding conducted April 1-4, 2024.
• Survey offered in English, Chinese, Spanish and Vietnamese • The margin of error is ‡ 4.88% for the full 400 sample.
Slide 2
POST MEETING MATERIAL
1 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
MULCHIN April 2024
ESEARC
General Mood and
Sentiments
Slide 3
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Direction of Santa Clara: Voters Are Split on the Direction of the City Direction of Santa Clara
40% 42%
18%
Right Direction Wrong Track Don't know Slide 4
2 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Job Approval
Please indicate whether you feel each of the following is doing an excellent, good, fair, or poor job overall. *gorhony or santa clara. Is doing us the a of santa consis Excellent 6% 5%
48% 37%
Good 42% 32%
Fair 35% 33%
Poor 12% 20%
Don't Know 74% 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Slide 5
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
State of Public Infrastructure: Majority of Voters Sees Need for Additional Investment Do you feel that public infrastructure in Santa Clara is adequately maintained, or is there need for additional investment?
56%
33%
11%
Adequately maintained Need for additional investment Don't know Slide 6 3 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
TULCHIP April 2024
ESEARC
Majority Support for Design-Build City Charter Amendment Please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the following proposal:
Strongly support 21%
52%
Somewhat support 31%
Somewhat oppose 12%
22%
10% Support -
Strongly oppose Oppose
+31
Don't know 26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% slide ?
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Support for Santa Clara City
Infrastructure Funding
Slide 8
4 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Support for $298 Million Bond
Now I would like to read you a summary of a measure that may appear on the November 2024 ballot:
o ensure rapid 911 emergency response, upgrade aging fire stations, improve disaster preparedness (and) Safe Routes to Schools, assur afe, clean, well-maintained streets, neighborhoods, libraries, parks, recreation facilities; fix streets, potholes (and) underground storm drains t revent Bay pollution; shall the City of Santa Clara's measure to issue $298,000,000 in bonds, levying $16 per $100,000 of assessed valu enerating approximately $19,000,000 of funding annually while bonds are outstanding, with citizen oversight; no funds to increase salaries (o pensions, be adopted?
Would you vote yes or no on this measure? (IF CHOICE): And is that definitely YES/NO or probably YES/NO? (IF UNDECIDED) Which way would you lean?
Definitely Yes 24%
Without
With Lean
Lean
Probably Yes 30% 54% 59%
Lean Yes 4%
Lean No 2%
Probably No 13% With Lean
Without
Lean 29%
Definitely No 14% 27%
Don't Know 12%
Split Sample A 0% 20% 40% 60% Slide 9
Asked of hall the sample (n=2001
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Support for $598 Million Bond
Now I would like to read you a summary of a measure that may appear on the November 2024 ballot:
sale, durn, wel or emined site is, poise, uriord, israng , as es, rain dies y sparis, post as sa dres to Stone as res generating aproximatey 5:50003 and as any wine 10 is as 00 bonds e over 28 or so 0 or as so value, pensions, be adopted?
leand you ate yes or no on this measure? IF CHOICE) And is that definitely YESINO or probably YES/NO? (IF UNDECIDED) Which way would you Definitely Yes 24% Without
Lean With Lean
54% 59%
Probably Yes 30%
Lean Yes 5%
Lean No 5%
Without With Lean
Probably No 12%
Lean 31%
26%
Definitely No 114%
Don't Know 10%
Split Sample B 20% 60% Slide 10
Asked of hall the sample (n=200L 0% 40%
5 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
TULCHIN April 2024
ESEARCH
Comparison of Proposed Bond Measures
2020 $398mm Bond 2024 $298mm Bond 2024 $598mm Bond
58% 59% 59%
37%
29% 31%
12% 10%
5%
Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know
Total yes includes leaners Slide 11
"TULCHIN
April 2024
RESEARCH
Simulated Campaign: $298 Million Bond
Initial Vote Re-Vote After Positive Vote
Messages Shift
+30 +34
Definitely Yes 24% 37% 7 +13
W/O wio
Lean With Lean
54% 60% With
Probably Yes Lean 23%
30% 59% Lean -7
63%
Lean Yes 4% 3%
Lean No 2% 1%
With With
Probably No 13% Lean 10% Lean -3
W/O 29% W/o 29%
Lean Lean
27% 28%
Definitely No 14% 18% +4
Don't Know 12% 8% -4
0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Slide 12
6 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
TULCHIN April 2024
SEARCH
Simulated Campaign: $598 Million Bond
Initial Vote Re-Vote After Positive
Messages Vote
Shift
+28 +38
Definitely Yes 24% 33% +9
W/O W/O
Lean Lean With
54% With 59%
Lean Lean
Probably Yes 30% 26% 67% -4
69%
Lean Yes 5% 7% +2
Lean No 5% 3% -2
With With
Probably No 12% Lean 9% -3
W/O Lean
W/O 31% 29%
Lean Lean
26% 26%
Definitely No 14% 17% +3
Don't Know 10% 5% -5
0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Slide 13
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Components of the Bond
Slide 14
7 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
"TULCHIN April 2024
EARCH
Elements of the Bond: Tier 1
Here are some facts about the potential bond to improve infrastructure in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 to 10, please indicate how likely you are to support the measure based on each item, with a TEN meaning you are MUCH MORE LIKELY and a ONE meaning you are MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the measure based on each fact. You can indicate a number anywhere between 1 and 10. "The measure will.." (REPAIR STREETS) Repair streets throughout Santa Clara 7.73 38% (STORM DRAINS) Fix underground storm drains and pipes to prevent erosion 7.64 36% and sinkholes
(FIX STREETS/POTHOLES) Fix streets and potholes in the worst condition 7.53 28% (SAFER ROADS) Make roads safer for drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists 7.43 38% (911 COMMS) Upgrade 911 communications, police and fire facilities, and 7.42 35% enhance emergency preparedness to improve disaster response (KIDS/SAFE) Ensure kids have safe routes and intersections to get to school 7.42 35%
4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50
• Means rating on 1-10 scale Slide 15
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Elements of the Bond: Tier 2
Here are some facts about the potential bond to improve infrastructure in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 to 10, please indicate how likely you are to support the %10 measure based on each item, with a TEN meaning you are MUCH MORE LIKELY and a ONE meaning you are MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the measure Rating based on each fact. You can indicate a number anywhere between 1 and 10. "The measure will..." (BACK-UP GENERATORS) Invest in back-up generators for emergency 7.34 32% services for power outages during storms
(STORM DRAINAGE) Improve storm drainage and flood prevention 7.14 30% (FUTURE GENERATIONS) Preserve, maintain and update city parks for future 7.13 25% generations
(MAINTAIN COMMUNITY HUBS) Protect and maintain parks, playgrounds, 7.11 24% community centers and libraries
(SIDESHOWS) Prevent dangerous sideshows to improve safety 7.11 32% (MODERNIZE FIRE STATIONS) Modernize aging fire stations 7.08 25%
1.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50
• Means rating on 1-10 scale Slide 16
8 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
April 2024
ARCH
Elements of the Bond: Tier 3
Here are some facts about the potential bond to improve infrastructure in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 to 10, please indicate how likely you are to support the %10 measure based on each item, with a TEN meaning you are MUCH MORE LIKELY and a ONE meaning you are MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the measure Rating based on each fact. You can indicate a number anywhere between 1 and 10. "The measure will..." (UPGRADE COMMUNITY HUBS) Repair and upgrade parks, playgrounds, 6.99 23% community centers and libraries
(RESIDENT OVERSIGHT) Include an annual performance report and resident 6.94 26% oversight
(REPAIR FIRE STATIONS) Repair aging fire stations 6.92 23% (RETROFIT FIRE STATION) Retrofit the fire department's stations for 26%
6.89 earthquake safety
(CENTRAL PARK) Preserve, maintain and update Central Park for future generations 6.78 25%
(DISABILITIES) Make sidewalks, parks, and libraries more accessible to
6.74 25%
people with disabilities
4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50
• Means rating on 1-10 scale Slide 17
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Elements of the Bond: Tier 4
ere are some facts about the potential bond to improve infrastructure in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 to 10, please indicate how likely you are to support th %10 neasure based on each item, with a TEN meaning you are MUCH MORE LIKELY and a ONE meaning you are MUCH LESS LIKELY to support the measur Rating based on each fact. You can indicate a number anywhere between 1 and 10. "The measure will..."
6.51 17%
(PLAY STRUCTURES) Build new children's play structures in parks and maintain the are et
6.44 25%
(TRAFIC SAFETY) Improve traffic flow while also reducing speeding to improve safety (FIRE TRAINING TOWER) Repair and update the fire training tower 6.36 16% (SWIM CENTER) Repair and re-open the International Swim Center 6.34 25% (REDUCE SPEEDING) Provide speed bumps and signage to reduce speeding 5.40 11% (COST $126) Cost the average taxpayer just $126 5.32 18% per year
(COST $246) Cost the average taxpayer just $246 per year 5.29 12% (DOG PARKS) Maintain and build more dog parks 4.48 8%
• Means rating on 1-10 scale 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 Slide 18 9 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
"TULCHIN April 2024
ESEARCH
Positive
Messaging
Slide 19
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Positive Messages: Tier 1
Here are statements SUPPORTERS have made about the potential bond measure to fund infrastructure improvements in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 %10 to 10, please indicate how convincing each is as a reason to support the measure, with a TEN meaning it is VERY CONVINCING and a ONE meaning it Rating is NOT AT ALL CONVINCING as a reason to support the measure. You can be anywhere in between...
SPLIT B- STREETS) This measure will provide critical funding for fixing potholes and for epairing, maintaining, and improving local roads, bridges, and streets in every community ir Santa Clara. It will focus on fixing streets in the worst condition and make roads and 6.87 31% sidewalks safer for drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists by including speed bumps, updated law enforcement technology, and improved signage to reduce speeding and prevent sideshows. (ACCOUNTABILITY) This measure includes strict provisions to ensure accountability for taxpayers. These include independent annual financial audits. a Citizens' Oversight Committee, and that a specific infrastructure trust fund be established to ensure all funds are 6.86 26% used only on local projects. Unlike other tax measures, these funds can only be spent on specific local projects and not on salaries, benefits or pensions, and resources cannot be moved or re-allocated to other projects by politicians. (FIRE) The Santa Clara Fire Department receives nearly 10,000 service calls a year-a 14% increase from a decade ago. This measure will fund critical updates and seismic retrofitting to City fire stations-some of which are over 50 years old-and ensure that the Fire Department 6.67 21% calls quickly to save lives.
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 Slide 20
• Means rating on 1-10 scale
10 Item # 2B
4/23/2024
"TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Positive Messages: Tier 2
Here are statements SUPPORTERS have made about the potential bond measure to fund infrastructure improvements in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 %10 to 10, please indicate how convincing each is as a reason to support the measure, with a TEN meaning it is VERY CONVINCING and a ONE meaning it Rating is NOT AT ALL CONVINCING as a reason to support the measure. You can be anywhere in between... (SPLIT B-AGING) Some of the City's buildings and facilities are over 50 years old and in desperate need of repair. To make sure essential services are protected, it's time to invest in 6.59 20% things like upgrading our fire stations, fixing our streets, and improving the City's aging infrastructure, which will benefit our city for the future and increase property values. (FLOOD) Our community has seen consecutive seasons with extreme weather that caused flooding and damage to our neighborhoods. This measure will improve our storm drainage 6.38 19% system so that we are better prepared when disaster strikes by investing in flood prevention and reducing pollution from run-off into the Bay.
(SPLIT A - SAFETY) This measure will make Santa Clara safer by improving our emergency preparedness and response rates, reduce traffic accidents that cause injury and death and update deteriorating buildings in need of rebuilding or retrofitting. It will invest in pedestrian 6.25 20% and bicycle safety and ensure kids and families have safe experiences in our parks, libraries, and facilities.
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 Slide 21
• Means rating on 1-10 scale
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Positive Messages: Tier 3
Here are statements SUPPORTERS have made about the potential bond measure to fund infrastructure improvements in Santa Clara. On a scale from 1 %10 to 10, please indicate how convincing each is as a reason to support the measure, with a TEN meaning it is VERY CONVINCING and a ONE meaning it Rating is NOT AT ALL CONVINCING as a reason to support the measure. You can be anywhere in between.. (SPLIT A - QUALITY OF LIFE) The City of Santa Clara is a great place for children, families, and seniors to live. This measure will improve the quality of life of Santa Clara residents by 6.25 14% updating old parks and creating new park facilities and open spaces, including gyms and the Swim Center. It will also ensure safer streets, libraries, and community centers so everyone can enjoy them now and in the future.
(SPLIT A - PARKS/KIDS) Santa Clara's parks, including Central Park and other facilities and playgrounds, are a centerpiece of our city and provide refuge for children, families, and seniors to gather and be outdoors. These parks provide important open spaces, play 6.22 18% structures for children, and facilities and community centers serving kids with programs and activities that improve their mental and physical health and keep them engaged and on the right track.
(SPLIT B - PARKS) Santa Clara's parks, including Central Park and other facilities and playgrounds are a centerpiece of our city and provide refuge for adults and children alike to gather and be outdoors. The parks provide important open spaces and outdoor amenities and 6.15 18% facilities and include dog parks, pickleball courts, gymnastics and other specific recreation amenities and programs that improve mental and physical health and keep people engaged in the community.
5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 Slide 22
• Means rating on 1-10 scale
11 4/23/2024 Item # 2B
TULCHIN April 2024
RESEARCH
Executive Summary
> A solid majority of voters think additional investment in the city's infrastructure is necessary. > From the outset, both bond measures - $598 million and $298 million - tested in this survey garner similar levels of overall support, with each registering right near the 55% Yes ACA1 threshold without leaners and close to 60% with leaners among likely voters. Furthermore, after voters receive additional information and hear positive nessages about the bond measures, support increases significantly to near the 2/3 threshold to pass a bond unde › The most popular areas for potential funding from these measures include "street repairs throughout the city" "repairs to stormwater drain infrastructure to prevent erosion and sinkholes" and "fixing potholes" The most effective messaging frames in favor of these measures are those that emphasize "STREET SAFETY." highlighting how the measures will provide "critical funding for fixing potholes and improving local roads, bridges, and streets."
• An "ACCOUNTABILITY" frame emphasizing the measures "strict provisions" such as "independent annual financial audits, a Citizens' Oversight Committee, and a "dedicated infrastructure trust fund to ensure responsible spending of taxpayer dollars" also resonates strongly.
Just over half of the electorate in Santa Clara supports amending the city charter to allow for design-build.
Slide 23
For More Information, Contact:
Ben Tulchin
Corey O'Neil
Corey Teter
Kelsey Bullis
Asha Gupta
Caroline Joseph
M (415) 613-5480
[email protected]
[email protected]
www.tulchinresearch.com
220 Sansome Street, Suite 1360
San Francisco, CA 94104
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter
www.twitter.com/TulchinResearch F www.facebook.com/TulchinR 12 April 23, 2024 Item #2.B
TeX Ballot Measure Planning
We are Here
Awareness Measure Independent
Feasibility 2 3
Building Development Campaign
Volunteer leaders
Voter Survey Non-Advocacy Ballot Resolution/
Election Timing Communication Ordinance Fundraising
Tax Rate Existing comms 75 words Website/Social
Informational mailers Endorsements
Political Landscape Projects & Programs
/ digital ads Grassroots
Ballot Argument &
Internal and external Signers
Lawn Signs
audiences
Official Vote Mailers
Seek feedback (>88 days before
Digital Ads
Refine proposal Election)
V Get Out the Vote
TEAMCIVY Community Nov 2024 election:
readiness?
Council Action by Summer 2024
© 2023
1 POST MEETING MATERIAL
1