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1 Caltrain
Overview and
Budget
Santa Clara June 9, 2026
Caltrain Connects
• 77 miles connecting San
Francisco, San Mateo, and
Santa Clara counties
• 31 stations across 20
communities
• Over 160 years of continuous
rail service
• 82% favorability rating voters
• 91% favorability with riders
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2 Item 2A
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2 Caltrain is Part of Everyday Life
• Helps millions of people get
to work, school, and events
• Reduces traffic on major
highways like US-101
• Connects communities
across the Peninsula
• Supports access to jobs
and opportunities
Every Day, Caltrain provides regional benefits
*Based on Caltrain’s average weekday ridership for Tuesdays. **Caltrans most recent AADT available for 2023. ***2025 Triennial Survey.
Less Traffic:
Removes the equivalent of ~3
freeway lanes of traffic at peak
times * US-101 traffic is 93% of
pre-pandemic levels at rush
hour.**
Stronger Ecomony:
Today, 2.9 million people, or
37% of the 9-County Bay Area’s
population, live in the 20 cities
served by Caltrain. Corridor
economic driver of the state and
country.
4 Cleaner Air
• Reduces greenhouse gas
emissions with 100%
renewable electric service
• Improves local air quality
and reduces noise
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Caltrain is Supporting Local Economies
• Higher property values near stations
• Increased business activity and office demand
• Supports downtowns and local development
• Contributes to local tax bases across the corridor
Average rent per square foot refers to annual full service gross rents per square foot weighted by the building’s rentable building area.
Source: Costar, 2018; Strategic Economics, 2019.
Partnerships on
Major Initiatives
● Corridor Crossing Strategy
● Transit Oriented Development
● Redwood City Transit District
● Battery Electric Multiple Unit Train
● Diridon Station Business Case
● Portal (SF Downtown Extension)
● One Dollar Youth fare, Two Dollars
all day.
Innovative,Cost Effective:
Safety Enhancements
Worked with technology providers to improve audio
and visual directions by tracks
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4 Improved Service
• Faster: Express and local trains
• More Frequent:
- Every 15-20 mins weekday rush hour
- Every 30 mins, every station, 7 days a week
(compared to once an hour)
- 20% more service (26% equity priority stations)
• Better Experience: Free wi-fi, outlets at every
seat, bathrooms, digital displays, quieter inside
and outside the trains
• On-Time Performance: over 95%
8 Growing Ridership
• Since electrification: fastest growing transit system US (APTA); over 50% growth year over year; weekend highest ever; Giants/Sharks/Warriors 30%-50%+ increase from previous season • Diversified ridership: 50% moderative or above income and 37% low income; 10% youth, seniors, or people with disabilities
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5 Caltrain Ridership Trends by City
9 %I n c r e a s eApril 2026 (Post-electrification)August 2024 (Pre- electrfication)
City
83.5%312,774170,414San Francisco
119.8%25,41311,561South San Francisco
82.8%14,6878,034San Bruno
50.0%50,78233,852Millbrae
83.3%25,31313,809Burlingame
71.2%107,01462,519San Mateo
64.3%21,04912,811Belmont
75.6%23,12913,168San Carlos
62.1%67,12841,422Redwood City
59.1%28,06117,633Menlo Park
68.7%164,25597,382Palo Alto
54.4%72,45846,936Mountain View
92.0%61,52932,051Sunnyvale
96.6%25,21412,824Lawrence
104.7%34,79917,001Santa Clara
76.9%81,53946,090San Jose
54.2%1,9081,237Blossom Hill
64.7%3,2691,985Morgan Hill
119.6%991451San Martin
32.9%2,6281,978Gilroy
74.8%1,123,937643,158Total
Welcome City Partnerships
• Go Pass Program: City benefits economic, parking
and traffic relief, GHG reductions
• Creative partnership, exa mple: Downtown destinations 9 10
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6 Caltrain Fiscal Outlook and Ridership
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0 70,00020,000,000
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26*
Average Weekday Ridership
FY27*
Average Weekday Ridership
Total FY Ridership
• Ridership demand continues to grow in response to Caltrain’s electrified service improvements.
Total Fiscal Year and Average Weekday Ridership (FY19-27) Total Annual Ridership
Caltrain Ridership Trends
12 Projected FY25 to
FY26: +25% YOY
Total Annual
Ridership
Sources: Caltrain Annual Ridership Reports; Caltrain Fare Media-Based Ridership Estimates. *FY26 and FY27 projected. 11 12
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7 FY19 FY20 FY21
Notes: FY19-25 Actuals; FY26-27 projected.
Fares No Longer Cover the Same Share of Costs
• 2019, fare revenue comprised over 70% ($100M) of operating revenue • Today, while still nation leading, fare revenue accounts for ~30% ($43M) of operating revenue.
Caltrain Farebox Recovery Ratios (FY19-27)
13 72%
56%
24% 21% 25% 24% 26% 28% 29%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26* FY27*
14 Why Does Caltrain Have a $75M A nnual Operating Deficit? Commute Patterns
Shifted
Sustained, significant
changes in work patterns
across San Francisco and
Silicon Valley since the
pandemic.
Ridership &
Revenue Less Than
Before
Fewer riders meant lower
fare, parking, rental, and
advertising income.
Costs Rose
With Inflation
Operating costs grew
faster than revenue
across the transit
industry.
Electrification
Raised Fixed Costs
51 miles of new 25KV
electrical infrastructure to
maintain.
Combined result : These factors and the exhaustion of one-time COVID related funding sources have compounded to create a structural operating deficit that cannot be resolved through cuts or self-generated revenue alone.
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8 500
400
300
200
100
-
600
FY2027 FY2029 FY2031 FY2033
Revenue
FY2037 FY2039 FY2041
Millions
Projected Operating Deficit as of April 2026
FY2035
Expense
15-Year Operating Budget
Baseline Forecast Without External Funding
15 $75 Million Average A nnual Operating Deficit
Cost Containment Strategies
• Strategic hiring freeze
• Comprehensive cost reduction efficiency
program
• FY27: Line by line review, held operator
contract to previous level
• Implemented crew scheduling efficiencies
• Recouping costs for electricity returned to the
grid through regenerative braking
• Develop and evaluate Battery Storage Plan
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9 Non-Fare Revenue Strategies
Exploring new revenue sources
5-20 Year Long Term
Expand advertising &
media package
train wrapping
naming rights of
rolling stock and
station assets
Advertising and
Naming Rights
Solar farm, energy
storage facility for
traction power and
station energy needs
Solar, Energy
Storage Systems, EV
Charging Leasing
Cell tower leasing,
fiber leasing
Fiber Optic Cable and
Telecommunications
Leasing
Property conveyance
lease
commercial leasing
Transit-Oriented
Development
TOD and Commercial
Leasing
Private car
Charter train
Sport events
Special Events
1-2 Year Short Term 2-5 Year Medium Term
Schedule
18 Continue FY26 Service Levels
Maintain current service level using one-time State Loan funds through FY27.
No External Funding Scenario
FY2028FY2027FY2026
March 2026:
State Loan
Continue FY26 Service Levels
Service Cuts
Plan and Prepare for Service Cuts
June 2026: Caltrain Board Adopt
FY27 Budget and Framework for
November 2026: General
Election
Summer 2027: Measure Funds
Flow for FY28
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10 Fiscal Year 28+
Current Service vs. Potential Cuts in a No External Funding Scenario Today: Frequent Service 7 days a week
Frequent Weekday Service
Trains every 15 minutes peak; every 30 off-peak
Weekend Service
Trains every 30 minutes Saturday and Sunday
Long Hours of Service
Trains from ~5 AM to ~1 AM
Special Event Service
Extra trains support concerts, games and more
Potential Service Cuts (FY28+)
Hourly Weekday Service
Once per hour all day
No Weekend Service
All Saturday and Sunday trains eliminated
Early Shutdowns
End operations by 9 PM
No Special Event Service
Eliminate all special event trains
Station Closures
Close more than one-third of all stations. Potential for full service suspension if no external funding continues.
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11 Why Cuts Make the Problem Worse (Downward Spiral)
Cut Service
Reduced frequency
and span of service
delivers most savings.
Fewer Riders
Fewer riders due to
inconvenient service,
reducing ridership by a
projected 60% to 70%
Less Revenue
Less fare, parking,
advertising, leasing
revenue offsets
cost savings
Creates Cycle
Difficult to
Reserve
Deficit persists,
forcing
further reductions
Ridership could decrease significantly,
with losses compounded by other
agencies' contemplated cuts.
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Regional Transit – Connected Implications
22 • Specific cuts are not certain yet.
• Contemplated cuts other agencies in
conjunction would increase Caltrain’s
ridership loss.
• If no external funding, could stop
passenger service, and focus exclusively
on maintenance and safety of the corridor
and assets.
• Once shut down, minimum 2-4 years to
resume Caltrain passenger service.
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Critical Inflection Point
No External Funding Scenario
Reduce to hourly service
Eliminate weekend service
End service at 9:00 PM
Close ~1/3 of stations
Cut segments of service
Cuts to administrative costs
Eliminate special event service
Suspend all Caltrain service
Even Significant Cuts Won't Solve
the Deficit
Cutting service drives away riders,
reducing operating revenue in
a downward spiral, offsetting much of
the savings from cuts. Significant
deficit remains.
Ridership & Revenue Are Growing
Caltrain will continue to grow
ridership, generate revenue, and find
cost savings — but growth and cuts
cannot close the gap.
Important Crossroads
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13 Casey Fromson,C h i e fo fS t a f f
email: [email protected], Cell: 650.288.7625
Jason Baker, Government & Community Affairs Director
email: [email protected], Cell: 650.399.6093
Devon Ryan, Government & Community Affairs Manager
email: [email protected], Cell: 650.730.6172
Annie DeLancie, Government & Community Affairs Officer
email: [email protected], Cell: 650.730.3464
Questions & Contact Info
FOR MORE INFORMATION
WWW.CALTRAIN.COM
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