Santa Cruz City Council
January 18, 2022

CITY OF SANTA CRUZ
809 Center Street
Santa Cruz, California 95060

CITY COUNCIL AGENDA
Study Session – January 18, 2022
4:00 p.m. GENERAL BUSINESS, ZOOM
COVID-19 ANNOUNCEMENT: Due to the Omicron variant, in an abundance of caution, this meeting will be held via teleconference ONLY.

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January 18, 2022 City Council Study Session 2
City Council Study Session
4:00 P.M.

Call to Order
Roll Call
General Business

1. Climate Action Plan 2030 – Target Setting Study Session (CM) Review and provide feedback on the Climate Action Plan 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target options.

Adjournment
City Council Study Session

AGENDA REPORT
DATE: 01/11/2022
AGENDA OF: 01/18/2022
DEPARTMENT: City Manager
SUBJECT: Climate Action Plan 2030 – Target Setting Study Session (CM) RECOMMENDATION: Review and provide feedback on the Climate Action Plan 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target options.

BACKGROUND: It is up to the global community collectively to take action through governmental, civic, corporate and diplomatic means to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to keep global temperature rise to under 1.5 degrees Celsius, the tipping point for irreversible climate impacts. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I sixth assessment, under the current emissions trajectory, 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming will occur with the next two decades. Limiting warming to this level to prevent the most severe climate impacts depends on implementation of transformational actions this decade. While making investments to ensure this tipping point is not reached will be difficult and require managing trade-offs, it also provides a massive opportunity to create and retain better quality jobs, and achieve equitable health benefits and livelihoods. This agenda report outlines the technical considerations and options for setting community-wide and municipal emissions reduction targets. The study session will include a presentation that delves into deeper context and nuance when considering this information. The aim of the study session is to review and provide feedback on the GHG emissions reduction target options.

Since April 2021, City staff have worked with Climate Action Task Force members, other municipal staff and the broader community to develop the Climate Action Plan 2030 (Plan). The aim of the Plan development effort, coined Resilient Together Santa Cruz, is to determine the year and most equitable pathway to carbon neutrality. Two major community and employee engagement efforts since project initiation enabled the staff and consultant team to identify and iterate on working vision and value statements for the Plan and its intended outcomes. Through its equity advisors and small focus groups with historically under represented and frontline groups, the team has also iteratively developed and applied an equity screening tool, integrating equity considerations in both process and outcomes at each Plan development stage. A summary of the visioning and goal setting community engagements as well as the analysis of equity considerations from community engagement and frontline groups in particular are found in the attachment entitled Community Engagement Results and Summary.

1.1 In sum, the community as a whole has an aspirational vision for rapidly drawing down greenhouse gas emissions and seeks to set targets and an implementation pathway grounded in data and science. The working vision and value statements include:

Vision: Enact climate solutions that rapidly achieve deep decarbonization, and support and enhance an equitable community with robust active and public transportation, plentiful housing that is affordable, sustainable, and resilient, and regenerative landscapes.

Values:
• Ensure equity in all policies
• Build people-centric transportation infrastructure
• Promote efficient and low carbon/no carbon energy and water • Protect and enhance natural resources and urban parks • Eliminate waste and support local food sources
In addition to emissions reduction targets, the project team, based on community and staff engagement, is also developing climate restoration and climate economy goals, which may be more qualitative in nature. These goals will complement the emissions reductions targets eventually adopted to ensure other climate supportive actions are taken to achieve outcomes that support the community’s climate values.

DISCUSSION: Based on the feedback provided by the community, the requirements for a CEQA qualified Plan, state emissions reduction targets and considerations, and analysis of Paris Climate Agreement compliant science based target, the project team has drafted a set of potential emissions reduction target options, the focus of this study session for City Council to discuss and consider.

In 2006, the California Legislature passed the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32), which created a comprehensive, multi-year program to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the State. For the State to reach its GHG emissions reductions goals and targets, local governments must reduce their "fair share" of emissions to limit global warming.

California currently has established goals/targets for reducing GHG emissions by 40 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2030 (Senate Bill 32) and achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 (EO B-55-18).

For the City’s Climate Action Plan to be considered a “Qualified GHG Reduction Plan” (referred to thereon as a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan) that can be used for CEQA GHG emissions analyses tiering purposes pursuant to CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.51 , the City is required to adopt a GHG emissions reduction target that is at least as stringent as these State 1 1
For a CAP to be a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan, the Plan needs to meet the criteria set forth in CEQA Guidelines Section 15183.5(b), which is to accomplish the following: A. Quantify greenhouse gas emissions, both existing and projected over a specified time period, resulting from activities within a defined geographic area; B.

Establish a level, based on substantial evidence, below which the contribution to greenhouse gas emissions from activities covered by the plan would not be cumulatively considerable; C. Identify and analyze the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from specific actions or categories of actions anticipated within the geographic area; D. Specify measures or a group of measures, including performance standards, that substantial evidence demonstrates, if implemented on a project-by-project basis, would collectively achieve the specified emissions level; E. Establish a mechanism to monitor the plan’s progress toward achieving the level and to require amendment if the plan is not achieving specified levels; F. Be adopted in a public process following environmental review.

1.2 targets. Other advantages for jurisdictions that have a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan is that it shows a stronger commitment to reducing GHG emissions in line with State goals and therefore makes CEQA documents more legally defensible to potential litigation. It will also enable the City to be more competitive for grant funding.

In June 2021, Governor Newsom requested the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and California Air Resources Board (CARB) to accelerate California’s progress toward its climate goals in order to meet the urgency of the climate crisis. Given this new direction, and feedback received from the community, the City may want to consider a more ambitious target or aspirational vision to better align with the anticipated acceleration of the State’s carbon neutrality goal to 2035. A more ambitious target is one that the City and community would strive to reach, even if it is unlikely that the community achieves this level of emissions reductions. As aspirational vision instead would establish an intention to exceed State requirements and specify areas to accelerate implementation. In order to under the nuance of these different emissions reduction targets, it is important to review historical and project emissions.

Historical and Forecasted Emissions
As part of the Plan update effort, the City’s historical GHG inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2019) were updated from work presented in the June, 2021 CAP 2020 close out report to include off-road emissions and new on-road transportation data that used an origin-destination methodology. These updates give a complete picture of the community’s historical GHG emissions, and bring them into alignment with guidance from the Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)2 U.S. Community Protocol.

As previously mentioned, for the State to reach its GHG targets, local governments must reduce their “fair share” of emissions to limit global warming. The State’s GHG targets have been established as mass emissions targets and are often referenced as the legislative, or SB 32, target in local government target setting3. The State’s specific targets are each benchmarked to a 1990 GHG inventory, and, for most local governments, it is technically challenging to accurately back-cast a GHG inventory and estimate the amount of 1990 emissions due to the lack of available 1990 jurisdictional activity data. Guidance in the California Air Resources Board’s 2008 Climate Change Scoping Plan identified local governments as “essential partners” in achieving the State’s GHG targets, and encouraged adoption of local GHG targets “…that parallel the State’s previous target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 15% from current levels by 2020.”
To align with the State’s 2020 target, many local governments followed the 2008 Climate Change Scoping Plan guidance, which estimates 1990 emissions (also the 2020 target) as 15% below “current” (2005-2008) emissions. Following this methodology, Santa Cruz’s 1990 emissions is estimated to be 302,319 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e), or 15% below 2005 GHG emissions. Table 1 shows the City’s updated 1990, 2005, and 2019 mass (city-wide) and per capita (per person) emissions. Figure 1 shows the City’s 2019 emissions as a proportional pie chart. Figure 2 and Figure 3 graphically represents of the City’s 2019 mass and 2 Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) is the lead author of the greenhouse gas accounting protocols. ICLEI engages with local and regional governments worldwide to strengthen action and support sustainable urban development. 3 Mass emissions refer to the total GHG emissions within a particular boundary (in this case, the State of California), rather than emissions per person, also known as per capita emissions.

1.3 per capita GHG emissions, respectively. Transportation accounts for the largest source of emissions, followed by energy and waste/wastewater.

Table 1 Santa Cruz 1990, 2005 and 2019 GHG Emissions
Figure 1 2019 GHG Emissions by Sector
Energy
24%
Transportation
69%
Waste/Wastewater
7%
GHG Emissions Sector 1990 (MT
CO2e)
2005 (MT
CO2e)
20191 (MT
CO2e)
Annual GHG Emissions (Mass) 302,319 355,669 274,5842
Annual GHG Emissions (Per Capita) 6.08 5.53 4.22
Notes: MT CO2e: metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent 1 Due to the COVID19 pandemic, which disrupted community functions in 2020, 2019 is used as a proxy for 2020.
2 The City’s 2020 target was 30% below 1990 levels, or 211,623 MT CO2e.

1.4 Figure 2 2019 Mass GHG Emissions by Sector
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
Energy Transportation Waste/Wastewater
Mass GHG Emissions (MT CO2e)
Figure 3 2019 Per Capita GHG Emissions by Sector
-

0.50 1.00

1.50 2.00

2.50 3.00

3.50 Energy Transportation Waste/Wastewater
Per Capita GHG Emissions (MT CO2e)
The State reached its target to return to 1990 GHG levels in 2016, four years ahead of schedule.4 As shown in Table 1, the City of Santa Cruz reduced emissions below 1990 in 20195. However, the City adopted a more ambitious 2020 target of reducing community-wide GHG emissions 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 as part of its 2012-2020 Climate Action Plan. Although the CAP 2020 closeout report indicated the City met its 2020 target, upon inclusion of additional vehicle miles traveled not accounted for the AMBAG model, the City did not meet its 2020 target (211,623 MT CO2e), largely due to population and employment growth6. 4 California Air Resources Board (CARB). Latest state Greenhouse Gas Inventory shows emissions continue to drop below 2020 target. Available <https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/latest-state-greenhouse-gas-inventory-shows-emissions-continue-drop-below2020-target>. Accessed December 8, 2021. 5 Due to the COVID19 pandemic, which disrupted community functions in 2020, 2019 is used as a proxy for 2020. 6 ICLEI USA. July 2021. City of Santa Cruz Contribution Analysis. Submitted to City August 4, 2021.

1.5 The GHG inventories and Santa Cruz specific demographics projections were used to determine the community’s GHG emissions forecasts. The forecasts in Table 2 were developed to better understand how population and job growth in Santa Cruz could affect future GHG emissions in the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045. These forecasts help to determine the level of emissions reductions necessary to meet targets. For more information on the GHG inventories and forecasts see attachment entitled GHG Emissions Forecasts Memorandum.

Table 2 GHG Emissions Forecasts Emissions Forecast 2025 Emissions Forecast
2025
(MT
CO2e)
2030
(MT
CO2e)
2035
(MT
CO2e)
2040
(MT
CO2e)
2045
(MT
CO2e)
Business as Usual Forecast 335,150 300,519 309,929 320,156 330,054 Adjusted Forecast 311,244 256,715 249,834 248,562 250,569 Notes:

MT CO2e: metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
1 The Business-as-Usual Forecast (BAU) projects GHG emissions levels that scale with population, employment and transportation growth consistent with regional projections. 2 The Adjusted Forecast (Adjusted) accounts for GHG reductions expected to occur from adopted State legislation (e.g., 2019 Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, Senate Bill 100 – California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program, and more). For more information on the forecasts, reference the Santa Cruz GHG Forecasts Memorandum submitted to the City on November 11, 2021.

GHG Emissions Target Options
As the State is continuously considering and setting new GHG emission targets, this allows the City to choose one or more GHG emissions target(s) to meet the overall objectives of the Climate Action Plan. One of these objectives is to develop a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan that is consistent with State-mandated targets. But the City may also want to set additional targets to be either consistent with or go beyond international agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement, i.e., a science-based target (SBT). The general options for targets include, but are not limited to:
 State-mandated target for a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan (SB 32 Minimum Target) oSenate Bill (SB) 32/Executive Order (EO) B-55-18 – 40% below 1990 emissions level by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2045. The State-mandated target (or SB 32 minimum) requires a clear plan to reach the 2030 target of 40% below 1990 levels, and a pathway toward carbon neutrality by 2045.
 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability7 Science-Based Target (SBT) o60.7% below 2019 mass emissions by 2030 (62.8% below 2019 per capita emissions by 2030). The SBT sets a 2030 target that reflects maximum effort toward or beyond a fair share of the Paris Climate Agreement to keep global warming to under 1.5 degrees Celsius (50% reductions by 2030, compared to 2019 levels).  Aspirational targets not subject to CEQA qualified CAP requirements under consideration oCarbon neutrality by 2035. This target aligns with Governor Newsom’s recent direction to CARB to explore feasibility of carbon neutrality by 2035. 7 ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability is an international non-governmental organization that promotes sustainable development. ICLEI provides technical consulting to local governments to meet sustainability objectives. The "International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives" thus became "ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability", with a broader mandate to address sustainability issues, not only environmental issues. As a member of ICLEI, the City’s science based target was computed by ICLEI based on the revised 2019 emissions inventory results.

1.6 oCarbon neutrality by 2030. This target represents the most ambitious target that the City could pursue, consistent with the initiative called, “Climate Safe California.”  State-mandated Plus Target
oThis target could be more ambitious than the State-mandated target for a CEQA qualified Climate Action Plan (40% below 1990 levels) but less ambitious than carbon neutrality by 2030 or 2035. This target could aim to reduce GHG emissions somewhere between 45% - 85% below 1990 levels by 20308. The emissions reductions associated with this potential target are not shown in the data and tables below since a target within the range of emission reductions is dependent on feedback from City Council, staff and stakeholders.

As long as the SB 32 minimum target is selected or exceeded on the community-wide scale, different targets may be considered for emissions reductions on the community-wide and municipal scale only. For example, Santa Cruz County has adopted a non-binding aspirational target of carbon neutral municipal operations by 2030 but has not yet considered or adopted a community-wide (County-wide) target. After the study session, the project team will refine the target preferences and bring specific emissions target recommendations at both scales to City Council at an early March, 2022 study session, along with a implementation action set to consider.

Following the consideration and selection of one or more of the targets above, there are two methodologies for calculating the minimum GHG emissions reductions the City must monitor to stay on track for meeting the selected target(s). The City could choose to adopt mass emission or per capita target. Mass emission targets describe emissions in terms of total MT CO2e without any adjustment for population growth. Many local governments, including the City of Santa Cruz, have been unable to reach their mass emissions targets because of population growth. The most recent (2017) California Climate Change Scoping Plan Update includes guidance that details the methodology and benefits of developing per capita targets. The key benefit of a per capita target is that it accounts for population growth, as the target does not become more difficult to reach if the City grows faster than projected. Since the City’s growth may be about 10% in the next 8 years, adopting a per capita emissions target is strongly suggested by the project team. Per capita emissions targets are developed by dividing the projected emissions in each target year by the forecasted population. Conversely, per capita target can be translated to mass emissions by multiplying the per capita emissions by the population. 8 Other jurisdictions that have adopted such targets include: City of San Luis Obispo – carbon neutrality by 2035; City of Watsonville – aspirational goal of net-negative emissions by 2030 and legal target 80% below 1990 levels by 2030; City of Santa Monica – 80% below 1990 levels by 2030; City of Palo Alto – 80% below 1990 levels by 2030; City of Cupertino – 49% reduction by 2035 and 83% by 2050.

1.7 Emissions Target Types
Mass Emissions Target Type
The first proposed methodology for the City to consider for setting a GHG emissions reduction target type is based on a total GHG emissions basis, also known as mass emissions. This is the traditional methodology for establishing emissions targets as a part of Climate Action Plans and was employed by the City for development of the 2020 target. The SB 32/Executive Order (EO) B-55-18 pathway to achieve statewide carbon neutrality by 2045 meets the minimum requirements for CEQA GHG emissions analyses streamlining9 . The pathway sets a 40 percent reduction from 1990 levels by 2030 and then carbon neutrality by 2045 consistent with EO B-55-

18. 3 provides GHG emissions targets for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 for the City based on the four potential targets under consideration discussed above. Figure 4 displays these targets graphically and compares them to the Business as Usual (BAU) and Adjusted Forecast.10 Table 3 GHG Emissions Forecasts and Potential Targets – Mass Reduction Emissions Forecast/Target
2025
(MT
CO2e)
2030
(MT
CO2e)
2035
(MT
CO2e)
2040
(MT
CO2e)
2045
(MT
CO2e)
Business as Usual Forecast1 335,150 300,519 309,929 320,156 330,054 Adjusted Forecast2 311,244 256,715 249,834 248,562 250,569 State-mandated Target (40% below 1990
emissions level by 2030, and progress
toward carbon neutrality by 2045)
223,752 181,391 120,928 60,464 0
Carbon neutrality by 2035 Target
(CARB directed to explore feasibility of
this target)
171,615 85,808 0 0 0
Carbon neutrality by 2030 Target) 124,811 0 0 0 0
ICLEI - Science-Based Target (based on
Paris climate goals – or 50% reductions
by 2030 compared to 2019 levels)
191,086 107,912 N/A N/A N/A
Notes:

MT CO2e: metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; CARB: California Air Resources Board) The emission associated with a “State-mandated Plus” target is not shown since a target within the range of emission reductions would have to be determined.
1 The Business-as-Usual Forecast (BAU) projects GHG emissions levels that scale with population, employment and transportation growth consistent with regional projections. 2 The Adjusted Forecast (Adjusted) accounts for GHG reductions expected to occur from adopted State legislation (e.g., 2019 Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards, Senate Bill 100 – California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program, and more).
9 CEQA streamlining refers to the ability of allowance lead agency to tier-off of existing environmental review and avoid the duplication of analysis prepared during planning-level or “programmatic”. The CEQA Guidelines provide several ways to streamline GHG analysis within CEQA documents. The CEQA guidelines state that project-specific environmental documents may rely on an EIR containing a programmatic analysis of greenhouse gas emissions as provided in section 15152 (tiering), 15167 (staged EIRs) 15168 (program EIRs), 15175–15179.5 (Master EIRs), 15182 (EIRs Prepared for Specific Plans), and 15183 (EIRs Prepared for General Plans, Community Plans, or Zoning). 10 For more information on the forecasts, reference Attachment 2, the Santa Cruz GHG Forecasts Memorandum submitted to the City on November 11, 2021.

1.8 Figure 4 Potential GHG Emissions Forecast (Mass Emissions) 0 50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1990 2025 2035 2045
BAU Forecast Adjusted Forecast
SB 32 Minimum (mass) Linear Reduction to Zero by 2035 (mass) Linear Reduction to Zero by 2030 (mass) ICLEI Science-based Target (mass) MT CO2e
Per Capita Emissions Target Type
The mass GHG emission targets can also be expressed on a per capita basis (the second proposed methodology for setting GHG emissions reduction targets). Per capita targets are derived by dividing the mass emissions by the forecasted population in each target year. The benefit of per capita targets is primarily the ability to control for population growth over time. By adopting a per capita target, the City can grow without sacrificing the ability to reach its GHG reduction goals. Per capita emissions targets can be calculated by dividing the mass emission presented above by the population in order to translate mass emissions into a per capita emissions target.

Table 3 provides per capita GHG emissions targets for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 for the City based on the targets described above. Figure 5 details the per capita GHG emissions targets compared to the projected BAU and Adjusted Forecast.

1.9 Figure 5 Potential GHG Emissions Forecast (Per Capita Emissions)

0.00 1.00

2.00 3.00

4.00 5.00

6.00 7.00
1990 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
BAU Forecast Adjusted Forecast
SB 32 Minimum (efficiency) Linear Reduction to Zero by 2035 (efficiency) Linear Reduction to Zero by 2030 (efficiency) ICLEI Science-based Target (efficiency) MT CO2e / Per Person
Target Comparisons
For the City to have a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan, the State requires that the City of Santa Cruz reduce GHG emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, under SB 32, and make progress toward carbon neutrality by 2045 under EO B-55-18. However, the City may choose to also set a more ambitious, or aspirational, target to meet carbon neutrality before 2045. As mentioned above, setting an aspirational target of carbon neutrality by 2035 would align with Governor Newsom’s recent direction to the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to explore carbon neutrality by 203511. This could make the City more competitive for future funding opportunities to meet a more ambitious carbon neutrality target. In addition, a more ambitious aspirational target, such as the ICLEI science-based target, would provide a conservative approach to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C), which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)12 determined is necessary to avoid the most negative impacts of climate change and ease climate change adaptation.13
11 Office of Governor Gavin Newsom. 2021. Governor Newsom Holds Virtual Discussion with Leading Climate Scientists on State’s Progress Toward Carbon Neutrality. Available <https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/07/09/governor-newsom-holds-virtualdiscussion-with-leading-climate-scientists-on-states-progress-toward-carbon-neutrality/>. Accessed November 11, 2021. 12 The IPCC is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change.
13 Hoegh-Guldberg, O., D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K.L. Ebi, F.

Engelbrecht, J.Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S.I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, and G. Zhou, 2018: Impacts of

1.5ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R.

Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I.Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T.Maycock, M.Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press

1.10 Table 4 presents an initial analysis of the level of effort required to achieve the State-mandated SB32 target (40% below 1990 levels by 2030) versus a more ambitious 2030 or 2035 carbon neutrality target or the ICLEI Science-based Target which is slightly less ambitious than the 2035 carbon neutrality target. This analysis includes the major GHG reduction measures required pursuant to the State Scoping Plan. Each measure was analyzed to that identify specific goals (i.e., activity data targets by 2030 and 2045) to address GHG emissions in each sector required for a CEQA qualified CAP (energy, transportation, and waste and wastewater)14 . A single measure generally addresses a subsector; for example, five measures may be established under the Transportation sector to address subsectors such as active transportation, public transportation, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and off-road equipment. The initial measure reductions depicted are in the process of being considered and adjusted in consultation with staff and relevant stakeholders. Table 4 also provides estimated costs and equity considerations.

Table 4 Target Comparisons
State-mandated SB 32
Minimum Target (40% below
1990 levels by 2030 and
pathway to carbon neutrality
by 2045) Carbon Neutrality by 2030 or 2035
Energy
Measures
 Electrify 28% of existing
residential buildings by
2030
 Electrify 20% of existing
commercial buildings by
2030
 Time of replacement
implementation and
voluntary (could be as high
as 10%)
 Assumes 6% noncompliance for residential
and 1.7% for commercial
 Electrify 100% of existing
residential buildings by 2030 or
2035 depending on target
 Electrify 100% of existing
commercial buildings by 2030 or
2035 depending on target
 Requires retrofits before time of
replacement
 Assumes 100% compliance
Transportation
Measures
 25% active transportation
mode share by 2030
(currently 19.5%)
 8% public transportation
mode share by 2030
(currently 7%)
 35% of passenger vehicles
are electric by 2030
 >25% active transportation mode
share by 2030 or 2035 depending
on target
 >8% public transportation mode
share by 2030 or 2035 depending
on target
 35% remaining passenger
vehicles are electric by 2030 or
14 The State is currently considering revising the State Scoping Plan to include carbon sequestration (e.g., tree planting, compost application). While this is not required for a CEQA qualified CAP currently, the project team is analyzing the potential for sequestration and will include it as a climate restoration measure in the Plan.

1.11 (currently 5% passenger
and commercial)
 25% of commercial
vehicles are electric by
2030 (currently 5%
passenger and commercial)
 50% off-road equipment
decarbonized by 2030
2035 depending on target
 20% remaining commercial
vehicles are electric by 2030 or
2035 depending on target
 50% off-road equipment
decarbonized by 2030 or 2035
depending on target
Waste and
Wastewater
Measures
 85% reduction in organic
waste by 2030
 35% reduction in inorganic
waste by 2030
 0% reduction in
wastewater process
emissions by 2030
 100% reduction in organic waste
by 2030 or 2035 depending on
target
 100% reduction in inorganic
waste by 2030 or 2035
depending on target
 100% reduction in wastewater
process emissions by 2030 or
2035 depending on target
Notes: M = million; ft2 = square foot; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; SCCRTC = Santa Cruz County Regional Transportation Commission; EV = electric vehicle; MBARD = Monterey Bay Air Resources District
As shown above, implementation of GHG reduction measures would need to reach 100% by 2030 or 2035 to reach an aspirational carbon neutrality target by those dates. This level of implementation is likely to be difficult to achieve in the next 10 to 15 years without substantial changes in federal and state funding and education and infrastructure investments. Although the Plan is designing implementation to mitigate equity concerns, in the near term those impacts may be more pronounced with a more ambitious target option because of the added investments required in the next 10 years. Moreover, the impacts of unmitigated climate change could likely also cause equity issues in the longer term, particularly to frontline communities ,which the City is addressing through the climate change adaptation initiatives.

Mass and per capita emissions targets for each of the potential targets listed above (i.e., statemandated SB 32 target and aspirational targets) are described in detail below.

Practically Achievable Emissions Reductions Aspirational Targets
 State-mandated Target (that meets SB 32 minimum
requirements)
 State-mandated Plus Target (This target could aim to reduce GHG emissions somewhere between 45% - 85% below 1990
levels by 2030)
 Carbon
Neutrality by
2030
 Carbon
Neutrality by
2035
 Science-based

1.12 Target
The City could choose to solely adopt the State-mandated target or a more ambitious Statemandated Plus Target, which meet or exceed the SB 32 minimum requirement. The City could also choose to adopt an aspirational overall emissions reduction target on the community-wide or municipal level, including measure specific aspirations, to reflect an aspirational vision. Any aspirational target would not be used for CEQA streamlining purposes but would allow the City to track progress made towards this target and potentially align with a science-based target and/or a more ambitious State target that could be enacted as a result of Governor Newsom’s direction to CARB to explore carbon neutrality by 2035.

Next Steps
The project team has developed an initial set of actions (i.e., the projects, policies, infrastructure and programming) across all State Scoping Plan measure categories (e.g., transportation, building energy, waste and wastewater) to reach the minimum emission reductions required to achieve a CEQA qualified CAP. The equity screening tool is currently being applied to the draft action set and actions will be revised based on the outcomes of the equity screening and internal staff dialogue. The revised draft action set will be released to the community for feedback through an online community dialogue platform the last week of January 2022, and will remain open through March 1, 2022.

In the meantime, the project team will consider the discussion from the January 18 study session and prepare emissions reduction targets and climate restoration and climate economy goal recommendations. In February, 2022 the project team will also prepare preliminary funding and implementation plans to reach the recommended emissions targets and associated goals. The project team will bring this body of work back to City Council for a study session the first week of March, 2022 to consider recommendations for emissions target(s) and other goals to adopt.

Between March and May, 2022, the project team will refine the final action set and funding and implementation plan, and draft the Climate Action Plan 2030. The project team aims to visit relevant commissions, conduct one additional major community engagement and bring the final Plan to City Council for adoption in June, 2022.

FISCAL IMPACT: The review of GHG emissions reduction targets as part of this study session does not have a direct fiscal impact but eventual setting of targets and adoption of the Plan will require significant investment from both the community and City municipally to implement the Plan. While example order of magnitude and per unit costs for various emission reduction actions were presented to at context to the target setting discussion, the next phase of the project will focus on costs, implementation and funding. In addition to seeking direction on preferred emissions reduction targets from City Council, the March study session will focus discussion on these important elements of the Plan development.

Prepared By:

Tiffany Wise-West
Sustainability and Climate
Action Manager
Submitted By:

Laura Schmidt
Assistant City Manager
Approved By:

Matt Huffaker
City Manager
ATTACHMENTS:

1.13 1. COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT RESULTS AND SUMMARY.PDF

2. GHG EMISSIONS FORECASTS MEMORANDUM.PDF

1.14 Community Visioning Summary
1 August 9, 2021
Visioning Engagement Overview
To develop a community vision of Santa Cruz in 2030, City staff, with support from BluePoint Planning and from Greenlining Institute for equity considerations, led a variety of engagement efforts in the City from June 29-July 29, 2021. This included an online visioning board through the Padlet application – one for the community at large and one for City staff – and 12 in-person visioning sessions, in which community members contributed images and words to posters. In-person visioning sessions were held at a local laundromat (2), the main and midtown branches of the Santa Cruz Library (5), the Beach Flats garden (2), Depot Park (1), a community market event (1), and the Museum of Art and History (1).

Overall, an estimated 263 people took part in the in-person visioning activities. Additionally, the Padlet had 221 posts and 169 comments from a total of 134 users. Some community members who were unable to contribute to the in-person poster also submitted comments via email afterward. Those comments are included in this summary as well. The outreach, the Padlet and all materials used in the in-person sessions were offered in English and Spanish. This summary takes into account all comments from in-person visioning sessions, and all Padlet comments dated through the month of July.

Below are the categories listed on the Padlet and the number of comments/ ideas received for each category for all forms for visioning outreach. This set of numbers also includes “likes” on Padlet for a specific idea. If there was a single comment that touched on different category areas, each category the comment touched on were attributed to a separate category and assigned a category/ subcategory. A full PDF of all posts from the Padlet and a detailed list of all subcategories and support for each set of ideas is attached.

1. Transportation (368)

2. Housing (156)

3. Energy (148)

4. Open Spaces, Nature, and Ocean (124)

5. Water (86)

6. Public Health and Safety (78)

7. Jobs and Green Economy (70)

8. Waste, Food, and Food Systems (65)

9. Equity and Climate Justice (51)

10. Miscellaneous (104)

1.15 Community Visioning Summary
2 August 9, 2021
Primary Themes
Below are the most salient themes that surfaced through the engagement process. These themes are aggregated concepts built from the broader categories listed above and the community comments.

These themes will be the basis for the Climate and Energy Action Plan Community Vision and Goals.

Detailed comments are provided below.

1. Create a seamless and safe active transportation network. This includes creating more protected bike lanes and completing the County-wide rail trail to ensure that cyclists of all abilities feel comfortable biking. It also includes increasing walkability throughout the City and promoting pedestrian safety.

2. Create a robust, decarbonized, reliable public transportation system. There is support for reliable, electric buses, as well as an electric rail in the region. This aligns with general support for reducing the number of cars and traffic in Santa Cruz.

3. Establish more affordable, denser housing. Many comments indicated support for more, and denser affordable housing. Comments also expressed a sentiment against vacant second homes in the City.

4. Foster the unique City of Santa Cruz Community Character. There is support for maintaining the current cohesive building types and density in City. It is important to ensure that new development considers water supply, traffic, and impact on community character. Comments also offered visions of more ADUs to address the need for housing. Safety and resilience are also considered in this theme. This theme needs to be balanced with the Affordable and Denser Housing theme.

5. Support and maintain beautiful and regenerative landscapes and environment. There is great support for planting more trees in Santa Cruz, community gardens, and many people also expressed support for keeping heritage trees in the City. Community members also envisioned healthy, organic regenerative landscapes and agriculture in the City, as well as accessible beaches and ocean.

6. Promote clean energy and create resilient energy infrastructure and buildings. There is support for efficient, all-electric buildings, including increasing solar panels on buildings of all types. Many community members also envisioned a stable energy grid, including microgrids, energy storage, and electric vehicle charging.

7. Ensure sustainable water use in the City. There is a desire to align the City’s development with the capacity of the water system. There is also a desire for conserving and reusing water through greywater systems and other means.

8. Secure economic, racial, and environmental justice. Community members expressed a vision of economic and racial equity and environmental justice. This includes giving space for and centering BIPOC community groups.

1.16 Community Visioning Summary
3 August 9, 2021
Detailed Comments by Theme
Below are detailed summary comments organized under the themes and general comment categories.

The information is provided with the most common mentioned items down to the least. Some of the comments in the latter part can be considered within the 8 themes and are noted as appropriate.

Transportation (368)
Theme 1. Create a seamless and safe active transportation network throughout the City. “We hope the city creates more open spaces for people and bikes. We envision a city where there are fewer cars on the road and biking to school and work is fun and safe for everyone.” ● More bike lockers
o More bike lockers on the wharf & at the boardwalk
o More lockers downtown near major employers to disincentivize bike theft and encourage biking
● Re-establish bike share
o Support for JUMP bikes
o More bike share parking advertising in the SC Sentinel, Metro Headways, Goodtimes, and CTV.
● More protected bike lanes
o Well-marked, protected bike lanes bike lanes make it safer to get around on bikes and encourage biking
● Countywide rail trail (with UCSC link)
o Complete the Rail/Trail by 2023
o More equity & inclusion thought in the rail/trail
● Use parking department income to fund rebates for eBikes, especially for low-income populations
● Prioritize building sidewalks
o Wider sidewalks
o Sidewalks away from street so there can be green space between moving vehicles and pedestrians
o Create a pedestrian mall on Pacific Ave.
● Better and safer pedestrian crossing
o Install flashing beacons for crosswalks
Theme 2. Create a robust, decarbonized, reliable public transportation system. ● Electric buses
o Expand and electrify bus fleet
● Greater bus service
o Greater service on the Westside and along Highway 1
o Explore bus on shoulder programs
o Have much earlier and much later bus times for Downtown Go program, including a late-night bus route from Watsonville, SLV, Scotts Valley, Capitola & Santa Cruz. o Have an express bus from Watsonville to Scotts Valley.

1.17 Community Visioning Summary
4 August 9, 2021
o Add an electrical fleet back-up emergency plan to a feasibility study to consider grid stability
o Establish a light rail
▪ Support and establish an electric light rail from Santa Cruz to Watsonville o Greater alternative transit
▪ Create a park and ride with free shuttle to beach and tourist locations ● Fewer cars
o Reduce traffic
o Stop building of parking garage
Housing (156)
Theme 3. Establish more affordable, denser housing.
“Create high-density housing located near transit and job centers to move away from an auto centric Santa Cruz.”
● High density housing near transit
● Allow single-family lots to be split
● Create low-income apartments for varying size families ● More homes for locals and less vacant vacation homes
o Establish vacancy tax
Theme 4. Foster the unique City of Santa Cruz Community Character. ● Less dense development
o Reduced requirements for ADUs
o No tall buildings over 3-5 stories
o Maintain city’s ambiance
● Less Development
o Stop overdevelopment
▪ Cap growth to what City can sustain
▪ Concern about sustainability of water use
▪ Limit UCSC enrollment
o No more luxury hotels or apartments
Open Spaces, Nature, and Ocean (124)
Theme 5. Support and maintain beautiful and regenerative landscapes and environment. ● Tree filled, shady spaces
o Save heritage trees, don’t build at farmer’s market
o Plant more trees
● Healthy Landscaping
o Encourage lawn removal
o Regenerative landscaping and agriculture
▪ Healthy forestry initiatives

1.18 Community Visioning Summary
5 August 9, 2021
▪ Drought tolerant, native planting
▪ Stop pesticide use
▪ Prohibit gas landscaping equipment
● Healthy Oceans and Beaches
o Accessible for people of all incomes - No parking fees o Healthy ocean ecosystems
● Manage sea level rise
o Managed retreat of West Cliff
o Manage sea level rise
Energy (148)
Theme 7. Promote clean energy and create resilient energy infrastructure and buildings. ● Greater renewable energy
o More solar
▪ Put on new infrastructure
▪ Incentivize solar
o All-electric buildings
▪ Government buildings should be all-electric
● Stable energy grid
o Highly efficient buildings
▪ Construct Passive House buildings
o Reliable energy in blackouts
▪ Battery storage
▪ Establish municipally controlled microgrids
▪ More TOU rates
▪ Vehicle-to-grid charging
● Electric Car Infrastructure
o More electric vehicle charging
▪ Zero carbon electric vehicle charging at city parking lots and garages, powered by municipally-owned solar
▪ Install pay-for-use electric vehicle charging stations on curbs of multifamily buildings
▪ Charging at apartment buildings, grocery stores, restaurants o More electric vehicles
▪ Electrify City fleet
● Clean Energy Homes
o Make old rental units efficient
o Clean energy homes with solar power
● Support for zero carbon goal by 2030
o Ensure City follows up on action plan and implementation o Ban fossil fuel extraction

1.19 Community Visioning Summary
6 August 9, 2021
Water (86)
Theme 6. Ensure sustainable water use in the City.
● Sustainable Water Use
o Stormwater capture
▪ For homes
▪ Use stormwater to water golf course
o Gray water systems
▪ For City buildings
▪ Toilets in residential buildings
▪ Gray water system for Waste Management to wash down recyclables ● Align development with capacity of water system
o Concern over water related to planned development
▪ Division over what water source should be used for growing population o Create a water conservation plan
Equity and Climate Justice (51)
Theme 8. Secure economic, racial, and environmental justice. ● Economic Equity
o More diversity in property ownership
o Equitable housing conditions
o Address poverty
▪ Better wages
● Racial Equity
o Anti-racism work
▪ Center BIPOC and traditional ecological knowledge
▪ Symbiotic relationships and collaboration between groups o Diversity
o Remembering the past and healing
● Environmental and Social Justice
o Equitable outdoor spaces
▪ BIPOC can reclaim outdoor spaces
Public Health and Safety (78)
● Safety and Resilience (Connect to Theme 4)
o Safety and security
o Safety in extreme heat
o Resilience

1.20 Community Visioning Summary
7 August 9, 2021
▪ Paid BIPOC leadership to establish resilience hubs
▪ Emergency response plan
o Reduce wildfire risk
o Covid safety
▪ Outdoor dining
▪ Walk-up window for stores/ restaurants
● Good sense of community (Connect to Theme 4)
o Community streets
o Mutual aid
o Community art and murals
o Support and expand the Downtown Streets Team
o Establish a neighborhood liaison team or Equity Department within the City Waste, Food, and Food Systems (65)
● Reduce food waste
o Compost program
▪ Establish compost program for the City
▪ Make more compost bins available
o Divert biowaste for fuel
o Distribute extra food from restaurants
o Create city waste reduction goal
● Greater food access (Connect to Theme 5)
o More community gardens
▪ Support for homeless garden project
▪ Create a Santa Cruz Agricultural Park/ demonstration garden o Public fruit trees
Jobs and Green Economy (70)
● Healthy local economy
o Living wage jobs (Connect to Theme 8)
o Reduce parking requirement for businesses to make City more walkable and increase foot traffic (Connect to Theme 1)
● Create green jobs
o More LEED professionals trained in building systems (Connect to theme 7) o Green job apprentice program (Connect to Theme 8)
● Encourage remote work
o Incentivize working from home to reduce car use
o Encourage employers to allow remote work

1.21 Community Visioning Summary
8 August 9, 2021
Miscellaneous (104)
● Reduce plastic use and waste (Connect to Theme 4)
o Ban single-use plastics
▪ Ban sale of plastic water bottles
▪ Charge $ 0.25 for plastic bags
o Greater recycling
▪ Increase local recycling
▪ Advocate for extended producer responsibility
▪ Recycle bottle caps
● Reduce and enforce littering finds

1.22 Santa Cruz Climate and Energy Action Plan | October 20, 2021 Goals Survey Summary

1.23 Survey Details
• Survey was open between September 8- October 13, 2021 • 271 responses
• 76% of respondents live in the City (many in unincorporated SC County) • 13% of respondents identify as BIPOC
• 17% of respondents age 30 or younger
• 2% of respondents (n=5) from Beach Area, 3% (n=7) from Lower East Side • 20% of respondents are City employees

1.24 Survey Details
• Top 5 fields of professions of respondents were:
• Government, (24%)
• Education/ research (24%)
• Non-profit or CBO (23%)
• Retired (17%)
• Technology (13%)
• Top 5 neighborhoods of respondents were:
• Unincorporated Santa Cruz (21%)
• Lower Westside (18%)
• Outside of Santa Cruz (10%)
• Upper Westside (10%)
• Downtown (7%)
• Top 5 participation experiences were:
• Reviewed Climate Action Plan 2030
project website (45%)
• Received status updates and notifications
from City staff (40%)
• Participated in the Community
Engagement Preferences Survey (32%)
• Submitted comments via email or online
forms.(31%)
• Learned about the project at other events
where the Climate Action Program tabled
or presented (13%)

1.25 Major Takeaways
• Overall there is strong agreement with all of the goal statements. • Biggest action that community supports is to reduce emissions from personal vehicles by improving biking, walking, and public transit
• Strong desire to build more dense, mixed use and transit focused housing • Providing good wages are important to Santa Cruz community • Community somewhat split about “moonshot” vs measured approach to emissions reductions targets

1.26 Takeaways from Frontline Stakeholders
• Includes BIPOC, youth, and Beach Flats/ Lower Eastside groups • Overall there is strong agreement with all of the goal statements • Frontline stakeholders have similar priorities as overall respondents • Unlike the general survey responses, there is a strong preference for a measured and clear approach to achieving carbon neutrality

1.27 Takeaways from City Employees
• Slightly different priorities than general population, with an increased desire for the City to promote teleworking policies
• Lower support for City to lead educational efforts (plant-based diets, material consumption) than general population
• Lower support for promoting resilient neighborhoods
• Lower support for creating and promoting resilience in the business district • Overwhelming desire for a measured approach to achieving carbon neutrality

1.28 Theme 1. Transportation
Transportation is by far
the largest source of
emissions in Santa Cruz.

From the CAP 2030
visioning process, there is
recognition that the
community will need to
consider how to
drastically reduce these
emissions.

1.29 Theme 2. Buildings, Housing and Development
Energy use in buildings is
the second largest source
of emissions in Santa
Cruz. How and where we
construct new buildings
and existing
developments have the
potential to significantly
reduce these emissions.

As identified in the CAP
2030 visioning process,
affordable housing is also
a desirable use expressed
by the community.

Build dense, mixed residential
and business development
that is close to public transit
and services, filling in existing
neighborhoods,…
Build the resiliency of
neighborhoods, especially
those most impacted by
climate change (our
“frontline” communities).

Apply for grants that
emphasize
sustainable and
affordable housing.

Build resilient, energy
and water efficient new
and existing buildings
and infrastructure.

1.30 Theme 3. Parks and Open Spaces
From the CAP 2030
visioning process, our
community indicates
parks and open spaces
are a priority, integral to
our City’s health by
providing cooling to
counter heat island
effects, increasing habitat,
and filtering stormwater.

While the potential is
limited, trees and
vegetation in parks and
open spaces are also
central to our retention of
carbon.

1.31 Theme 4. Food and Waste
There is a desire to
reduce food waste in our
community and support
local organic food
production. This could
reduce emissions from
food waste while
supporting carbonsequestration by
promoting healthy soil
practices.

Educate our
community on the
role food and food
waste have along
supply chains, in
restaurants and
stores, and in our
homes in meeting
climate goals.

Reduce food waste
in our community
through composting
and surplus
distribution
programs, etc.

Support local
organic food
production which
reduces
transportation
emissions and
toxins from entering
the environment.

Educate on and
encourage
plant-based
diets
Educate on the role
material
consumption,
packaging waste
and waste diversion
have in meeting our
climate goals.

1.32 Theme 5. Green Economy
There is a strong
community desire to
provide higher wages to
enable workers to live
where they work and
equitably increase the
number of green jobs in
Santa Cruz.

Focus on business district
creation, business
resiliency planning, and
bolstering the sustainability
and vibrancy of business
districts.

1.33 Select the 5 statements you feel are most
important for the community to address

1.34 Climate Action Plan Emissions Target
• Nearly even on which approach to the
target the City should take
• Slight preference for the bolder approach

1.35 Breakdown of resident responses

1.36 Breakdown of BIPOC responses

1.37 Breakdown of youth responses (under 30)

1.38 Breakdown of responses from Beach Flats and
Lower Eastside/ Eastside Sphere

1.39 Breakdown of responses from Beach
Flats and Lower Eastside
Listed are responses from
Beach Flats and Lower
Eastside from the standout
categories in which their
opinions’ differed from the
general public, along with
their responses.

Please note that 50 additional responses
from the Beach Flats community were
collected after the public response to the
survey. These responses are included
here but are not included in the general
summary provided on the ppt.

Expand the
number of local
green jobs
Encourage reduction
in number of daily
commutes through
expansion of
equitable
teleworking
Support local
organic food
production
Educate on and
encourage plantbased diets

1.40 Breakdown by City employees

1.41 Breakdown by City employees
Listed are some responses
from City employees from
the standout categories in
which City employees
opinions’ differed from the
general public, along with
their responses.

Focus on business district
creation, business resiliency
planning, and bolstering the
sustainability and vibrancy
of business districts.

Educate and
encourage plantbased diets
Educate on the role material
consumption, packaging waste
and waste diversion have in
meeting our climate goals.
10 20
30 40
10 20
30 40
50 1.42
Select representative comments
Great Work!
Tiffany is a Rock Star!
I would like to see post fire ecological
regeneration research and
implementation become a priority within
the CAP. We have the potential to draw
down carbon, heal our soil and create
more drought/fire resistant landscapes
through various projects with a lot of
potential in the CZU and elsewhere.

Even though all the areas you
mention are crucial for our area,
keeping food waste out of landfill
is low hanging fruit and can be
implemented the quickest of all.

Initiatives which also have public health
benefits should be prioritized.

Electrifying technologies that currently
burn gasoline (especially in two-stroke
engines) would have major benefits and
cost savings to residents' health.

We can not successfully
reduce traffic if we do not
invest in light rail.

It is absolutely crucial to mandate
that all proposed new residential
and business housing be water
neutral as well as energy
efficient.

1.43 Initial Community Values & Vision
• Expand and improve equitably distributed bikability, walkability, and public transportation infrastructure
• Limit onroad vehicles, the miles traveled, and traffic while transitioning any remaining car trips to electric vehicles.
• Build affordable, dense, mixed residential and business development that is close to public transit and services, especially for frontline communities • Ensure that all buildings and infrastructure are resilient, and water and energy efficient. • Increase the number of well paying jobs for Santa Cruz residents to live where they work. • Support, maintain and enhance accessible, beautiful, drought tolerant and/or regenerative landscapes and ecosystems.
• Reduce food and material waste and educate on the role of waste reduction in achieving the City’s climate action goals.

1.44 Thank
You!

1.45 Equity Considerations Recap
The following slides include equity considerations for the emissions reduction measures the community will need to implement.

This information was gathered from community engagement in the Fall 2021, Jamboard/ in-person exercises with Climate Action Task Force and Equity Advisors, and focus groups with
unsheltered people, youth and the NAACP of SC County

1.46 Equity Considerations Recap
Emissions Reduction Measures
Energy
• Consider affordability and impacts of
electrification
• Consider the ability of renters to electrify
• Ensure that benefits from distributed energy
resources (e.g. solar) are distributed equally
Transportation
• Take into account the affordability of EVs,
bikes, and public transportation
• Consider accessibility of payment methods for
transportation
• Promote safe and inclusive access to active,
public, and electric transportation, (including for
people of different mobilities, unsheltered
groups)
• Ensure equitable outreach for rebates and
programs
Water, Waste, and Wastewater
• Ensure that renters and multifamily
residents can participate in water
efficiency/ waste programs
• Conduct equitable and intentional outreach
to frontline communities
• Consider economic impact of water use/
upgrades
• Consider who can access compost/ waste
collection programs/ restrooms in public
spaces

1.47 Equity Considerations Recap
Climate Economy Measures
Green Jobs and Sectors
• Address equitable access (and any
associated funding) to job training and
green jobs
• Consider how to support green businesses,
particularly those owned by frontline
communities
• Consider how to make folks feel
comfortable going into different trades (e.g.
through education)
• Equitably and responsibly address public
safety
Consumption
• Address affordability of long-lasting goods
• Consider a community’s access to long- lasting goods
• Ensure equitable education on these topics
• Ensure affordability for sustainable single-use
or reusable packaging for small businesses
Diet
• Consider access to fresh foods and water
• Promote equitable health benefits for all
• Address the cultural appropriateness of foods
• Consider who is being supported by food
policies/ programs (e.g. small farmers)

1.48 Equity Considerations Recap
Climate Restoration Measures
Regenerative Landscapes
• Address access to green and public
space, including associated shading and
cooling benefits
• Incorporate culturally diverse/ indigenous
knowledge whenever possible
• Consider how to create job opportunities
for low-income and unsheltered
populations
• Address risk of displacement -
gentrification and repurposing of land
• Address a community’s vulnerability to
climate hazards
Air Quality
• Consider exposure to pollution
• Address vulnerability to pollution
• Consider affordability of air purifiers and
similar devices
Carbon Sequestration
• Promote equitable access to benefits of
regenerative landscapes, including
healthy soils, reduced stormwater runoff
and increased groundwater infiltration
• Consider equitable resources protection

1.49 SUMMARY OF EQUITY CONSIDERATIONS FROM SMALL FOCUS GROUPS WITH UNSHELTERED, YOUTH AND BIPOC GROUPS (FALL 2021/WINTER 2022) Emissions Reductions Climate Economy Climate Restoration Energy Transportation
Waste, Water, and
Wastewater Green jobs and sectors Consumption Diet
Regenerative
Landscapes Air Quality
Carbon
sequestration
Lack of affordable housing High costs for EVs
The same renter
considerations under
Energy apply to this
section as well, around
control, retrofits, etc. Access to skills training
need to encourage
"Free share" low cost
trades and other
exchanges
Food deserts:

Access to fresh fruit
and vegetables
Proximity of
regenerative
landscapes to Frontline
communities Proximity to air pollutants
Redevelopment
requirements for
green infrastructure,
etc. are equally
enforced across
neighborhoods.

Assuring energy burden of frontline does
not increase and potentially can be
decreased
Disincentives for parking could
increase costs for lower income workers who need to drive to work Lack of education/
enforcement of proper
waste collection (e.g.
compost) for Multifamily
building owners, which are
more likely to house lowincome communitiesInternet access for training
Packaged foods with
plastics, high amount
of waste, more often
consumed in lower
income communities. How to reduce overly
packaged products
while allowing folks to
still access cheaper
food in minimal
packaging, able to be
paid for by food
subsidies programs,
etc
Access to culturally
appropriate food
more parks in heavily
populated area
Sound pollution impacts that
impact quality of life in front
line communities are often
paired with air quality
concerns - proximity to
highways, etc.

Unequal access to
benefits of lower
temperatures from
trees
Electrification of buildings can increase
utility costs for renters and owners.

Complicated rebate processes
prevent access to cost-saving measures
Ensuring considerations for
multi-family households in
fee structures for water,
waste, etc.

Ensuring multi-lingual
job training is
connected to career
fairs and creating easy
to access job pipelines
The notion that
"thrifting is trendy" by
more affluent people
has caused some
resentment amongst
those who must thrift
- almost a
competition among
used goods and the
gentrification of
thrifting (wrong word
but IDK). How to
address this?
access to recipes,
kitchen appliances
Philadelphia has
shown a reduction in
gun violence with an
increase in green
spaces, reduction of
urban blight.

Increasing red tides, starting
earlier and ending later and
the connected air quality
implications of these toxins
released into the air,
specifically communities that
spend a lot of time on or
near water (fisherfolks).
ensure tree planting
is prioritized in
frontline blighted
neighborhoods
enforcement of building energy efficiency
standards for alterations of existing
dwellings and new construction. Full
cooperation with CEC. California Energy
Commission
need grants to help low income
people buy USED EVs
Potential rebates for watersaving measures down the
line may not reach
Frontline communities without intentional
outreach
rebranding of green
jobs to be more
inclusive, and not as
gendered (solar,
construction, etc
commonly considered
male jobs) left behind
so many other green
jobs that are not seen
as such.

Access to repair,
maintenance shops
that encourage reuse
rather than disposal
products.

Addressing
regulation that
prevents access to
local foods - i.e.
continuing to offer
parking pass for the
produce vendor in
Beach Flats
Ensure equitable
investment in open
spaces and parks,
ensure frontline
communities feel
welcome in and safe in
accessing
neighborhood parks
tree planting with tree
species specific to increased
air quality scrubbing (like
ginkos) in communties with
poor air quality
tree planting with
tree species specific
to increased air
quality scrubbing
(like ginkos) in
communties with
poor air quality
Costly retail spaces - limits ability to
manage and run small businesses
Access to bike helmets, bike lights,
etc.

How are large employers
accountable not only for
their operations but
supporting their
employee's participation
especially lower income
employees across these
categories
lifting up people living with homelessness and
other frontline
neighborhood/groups
with job opportunities
Places to shop are
near where people
live, work.

Access to good diet
and organic food in
schools
How make sure all
affected, with chance
for benefits, get the
word and easy access
extreme heat events
causing the release of methane in built
environments - collision of
multiple issues at once in
front line communities like
newly released air toxins,
urban heat island, etc.

Giving access to the
ocean to those that
otherwise don't
come. The ocean is
a carbon sink and
phytoplankton
produces much of
the oxygen we
breath - hence we
need to protect it by
supporting research
education and
resource protection.
incentives for median range income
households to change out natural gas /
propane fuels Poor access to charging stations
near term: how can we do
account shutoff prevention
for water like we do with
energy (CCES)
Jobs that don't require
college degrees
access and funding
for organic food and
good diets in
schools
Equitable access to
open spaces -
ocean/hiking safety,
transportation access
Early consequences of sea
level rise, in SC, black mold,
impacting housing, health,
and equity

1.50 Complicated rebate processes prevent
access to cost-saving measures
Housing insecurity contributes to
lack of ability to switch to EVs, as
renters do not know if their next
rental will have EV charging access
need much simpler ways to
reuse grey water
lifting up people living with homelessness and
other frontline
neighborhood/groups
with job opportunities
Development of
food spaces in
neighborhood
a lot of our landscapers
are culturally diverse. How do we use their
knowledge coupled with our direction to
implement regenerative
landscapes
Seasonal allergies and the
shifting seasons - how this
effects those whose health
is severely compromised by
allergens including but not
limited to particulates from
seasons..

Blue Carbon - the
ocean sequesters
so much carbonprotection is not
only healthy ocean
ecosystems, but
also means
sustainable tourism,
jobs creation and a
vibrant economy.
leverage reliable partners like Central
Coast Energy Services to expand services
to low income folks that align with our
essential emissions reduction measures
(electrification, transpo, green and health
homes)
Ensuring connection between bus,
rail/metro, public transit so that there
are not gaps in service. I.e - I caught
the bus at 10 at night, I am a single
female, I have to walk ___ distance
to get connection. Ensure public
transit is timed well to not leave folks
stranded or uncomfortable because
in those moments folks spend tons
of money on ubers, etc. or feel
unsafe
Small business
startups and training
along with the job
specific skills
change rules
around how
community garden
plots get assigned
(e.g., prioritize
lower income
levels) - also more
gardens -- our
neighborhood
doesnt have one
use indigenous
knowledge to develop
actions at this nexus
Opportunities to partner with
health care providers re:
connections of air quality
and rates of asthma
regulate (prevent)
tree removal - some
neighbors want to
remove 5 redwoods
because of the roots
creeping towards
their detached
garages, i feel this would be such a
loss for our
neighborhood
Lower income folks may be renters and
unable to engage landlords to electrify
buildings Limited public transportation service
Funding for new new
kinds of businesses for
BIPOC and poor in
transition
emphasis on more
community gardens
for food
"ownership",
access, low carbon
footprint - equity
practices on who
has access to
spaces
Tie jobs to
maintenance of
landscapes - trash
cleanups, restoration,
etc.

Protection against
increasingly lethal heat
Advantages aren't extended to renters.

Transit needs to be reimagined,
from the rail corridor to more shuttle
like regular services to better serve
community members - outside
UCSC ridership our metro ridership
seems low
training for
understanding building
science as an
individual trade as
opposed to only an
electrician or plumber
Eating less meat
will improve
community health
How can we bring
frontline groups list
Benchlands
Encampment
Stewardship Program
restoration efforts be
scaled into actual good
living wage jobs.
<<<adding onto this:
prioritize cooling centers and
other actions for exposed
community members
Renters have a really hard time having
influence over their household energy use
and modifications especially with landlords
in this town.
ask RTC to approve coast futura
system to transport low income workers
Address current
inadequate climate
science education
ensuring food
banks are providing
healthy options -
Second Harvest is
amazing at this.
addressing hunger
issues with good
food.

Danger of gentrification
- improve the areas
may create increased
property values, driving
out the people that the
actions were intended
to benefit. Affordability of air purifiers
Renters may lack ability to implement
changes without landlords on board
Gas station owners and repair
shops (not sure if they are lower
income or POC) may need help
transitioning to electric vehicle
service
safe and affordable
childcare options for
newborn through
preschool. - lack of
access to childcare
keeps women from
being able to work
better food is good
for everyone - tacos
can be made with meat substitutes
Canopy increases
increase property
values and hence
gentrification. How
spread trees and
gardens, parks etc. into
the neighborhoods
most needing them
without driving those
neighbors out!
reducing emissions will help
avoid further increases in
wildfires
need funding for electric building retrofits
for landlords
Lower income people are only
accessing state EV
rebates/purchasing EVs at a fraction
of moderate and high income
people. Bilingual/Bicultural
community outreach and purchase
guidance support is needed.

Studies on meat
consumption being
gendered - more
meat eaten by males. How to
consider cultural
and gendered
norms around meat
eating and how to
shift that without
ostracizing folks.
how do we make sure we don't squeeze out
folks living outside if
and when we want to
restore and create
regenerative
landscapes. how can we enlist them in
efforts to protect

1.51 Local renewable energy projects can be
designed to provide community center
emergency benefits to low income
communities
Safety while encouraging more
walking, biking.

Access to culturally
appropriate food
Multiple benefit
projects i.e. airing low
impact development /
bioswale components
to reduce the impacts
of flooding while
enhancing
greenspaces
CCCE may be purchasing large scale
utility renewables versus local distributed
solutions that can provide jobs and benefit
low income communities.
ensure all modes are considered,
such as folks in wheelchairs, etc for
forms of public transit or using
sustainable modes of transit (buses,
trains, sidewalks that connect all
corridors) Example: not cross walks
along Bay street even though there
are sidewalks
How to work with
local neighborhood
vendors - already
providing food to
frontline
communities, and
providing resources
to support more
climate conscious
choices
consider adaptive
landscapes that allow
multiple uses (e.g.,
flood control but also
community spaces
when not flooded) so
people don't need to move.
how do we address enforcement action
concerns in homes we are looking to
electrify (e.g.,homes with multiple families,
homes in lower income areas)
City should do equity budgeting
/capital planning to ensure
accountability on transportation
investments
draw on existing, make new and
cultivate trust with
orgs to direct low
income, other
frontline folks to
access actions and
resources. just bc it
exists doesn't mean
people can find it
trees help keep people
cool during heat waves
Out of town property owners may not fully
engage.
require bigger employers to provide
free electric van pools from watsonville and salinas
Multiple benefit
projects i.e. airing low
impact development /
bioswale components
to reduce the impacts
of flooding while
enhancing
greenspaces

1.52 Rincon Consultants, Inc.
200 Washington Street
Suite 207
Santa Cruz, California 95060
831 440 3899
[email protected]
www.rinconconsultants.com
Environmental Scientists Planners Engineers
December 10, 2021
Project No: 20-10678
Tiffany Wise-West, Sustainability and Climate Action Manager City of Santa Cruz, City Manager’s Office
809 Center Street, Room 9/10
Santa Cruz, California 95060
Via email: [email protected]
Subject: Santa Cruz Climate Action Plan,
GHG Emissions Forecasts Memorandum
As part of Task 3 of the Santa Cruz Climate Action Plan (CAP) Update, Rincon Consultants, Inc. (Rincon) has calculated future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts for each sector associated with land use in the City of Santa Cruz. The GHG emissions forecasts are based on the 2019 GHG emissions inventory and utilize Santa Cruz specific demographics projections. The forecasts were developed to better understand how population and job growth in Santa Cruz could affect future GHG emissions in the years 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045. The GHG emissions forecast presents two scenarios:
▪ Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU) that projects GHG emissions levels that scale with population, employment and transportation growth consistent with regional projections, and ▪ Adjusted Scenario (Adjusted) that accounts for GHG reductions expected to occur in response to local and regional compliance with adopted State legislation.

The presentation of these two forecast scenarios allows for an understanding of how GHG emissions levels may evolve without further action and how compliance with State legislation may contribute to reducing future GHG emissions levels.

GHG Emissions Sectors and Sources
The GHG emissions forecasts presented in this paper are based on the 2019 GHG emissions inventory calculated for Santa Cruz. The transportation sector was updated to include off-road emissions using the California Air Resources Board (CARB) OFFROAD2021 model, which were not calculated in the previous GHG inventories. In addition, on-road transportation data was updated by Kimley-Horn using the Santa Cruz County travel demand model (SCC TDM). The models used are widely accepted and regularly updated; this contributes to consistency and replicability of the data for future forecasts. All historical GHG inventories were also updated to include off-road emissions sources and updated on-road transportation emissions to allow for apples-to-apples comparison of inventories. Updates to previous inventories will be described in further detail in the Santa Cruz 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory section.

The GHG emissions sources included in this analysis align with those in the most recent (2017) California Climate Change Scoping Plan, which includes GHG emissions sources related to land use and

1.53 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

transportation in the City of Santa Cruz planning area.1 The GHG emissions sectors and associated sources included in this analysis are provided in Table 1.

Table 1 Santa Cruz GHG Emissions Sectors and Sources
GHG Emissions Sector GHG Emissions Source
Transportation Aggregated On-Road Transportation
Aggregated On-Road Transportation – EV Adjustment
Off-Road – Diesel
Off-Road – Gasoline
Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG)
Residential Residential Electricity Consumption1
Residential Natural Gas Consumption
Commercial Commercial Electricity Consumption1
Commercial Natural Gas Consumption
Wastewater Effluent from Treatment and Discharge of Wastewater Solid Waste Methane Commitment of Solid Waste Generated by Community Notes: EV = electric vehicle; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas 1 Electricity Consumption includes electricity provided by Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Central Coast Community Energy.

Santa Cruz 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory
The GHG emissions forecast analysis presented here is based on the emissions levels from each emissions source included in the 2019 GHG emissions inventory. Sources updated for the 2019 GHG Inventory baseline year include both on-road transportation and off-road vehicle emissions.

Off-Road Transportation Sector Updates
All historical GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2019) were updated to include off-road emissions sources. Off-road activity data, measured in U.S. gallons of fuel consumed by fuel type, was estimated using a combination of outputs from the CARB OFFROAD2021 Model (V1.0.1), per CARB recommendations. The updated inventories aggregate off-road activity by fuel type and allocate these emissions to the transportation sector. A summary of Santa Cruz historical off-road emissions for each inventory year is provided in Table 2.
1 California Air Resources Board (CARB). 2017. California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan. Available <https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/cc/scopingplan/scoping_plan_2017.pdf>. Accessed December 7, 2021.

1.54 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Table 2 Santa Cruz Historical Off-Road Transportation Emissions Summary Off-Road GHG Emissions Source 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019
Annual Activity Data (U.S. Gallons of Fuel) 985,725 1,069,503 1,030,882 1,015,670 1,008,050 Off-Road - Diesel 316,027 417,137 396,579 369,444 357,192 Off-Road - Gasoline 449,531 434,952 428,799 446,059 452,948 Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 220,167 217,414 205,503 200,168 197,910 CO2 Emissions (MT) 8,424 9,313 8,981 8,825 8,748
Diesel 3,227 4,259 4,049 3,772 3,647
Gasoline 3,947 3,819 3,765 3,916 3,977
Natural Gas 1,251 1,235 1,167 1,137 1,124
CH4 Emissions (MT) 4.34 4.23 4.16 4.30 4.36
Diesel 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.09
Gasoline 4.09 3.96 3.83 3.92 3.97
Natural Gas 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15
N2O Emissions (MT) 0.28 0.32 0.32 0.31 0.30
Diesel 0.15 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.17
Gasoline 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
Natural Gas 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08
Total CO2e Emissions (MT) 8,624 9,521 9,183 9,028 8,951 Diesel 3,268 4,313 4,101 3,820 3,693
Gasoline 4,077 3,945 3,889 4,046 4,108
Natural Gas 1,279 1,263 1,194 1,163 1,150
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

CO2 = carbon dioxide; CH4 = methane; N2O = nitrous oxide; CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent

1.55 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

On-Road Transportation Sector Updates
All historical GHG emissions inventories (2005, 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2019) were updated to include new on-road transportation data that follows the U.S. Community Protocol-recommended origindestination methodology. Previously, the City’s inventories included VMT data from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HMPS) and accounted for travel on Santa Cruz’s local roads only, otherwise known as in-boundary methodology. The Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) received a public records act request from Land Watch relating to Monterey County GHG inventories as well as pushback on the idea of cities not using an origin destination methodology as part of their climate action plan. To address the concerns raised by Land Watch, Kimley-Horn provided new daily Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) data for the years 2019, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045, and associated documentation describing the origin-destination methodology used to obtain the data for the City of Santa Cruz using the Santa Cruz County travel demand model (SCC TDM). Reference Appendix A for the detailed VMT methodology.

A summary of Santa Cruz on-road VMT emissions for each inventory year is provided in Table 3. To update the 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018 inventories, average VMT per capita was calculated (6,504) and multiplied by the city population for each of the inventory years and daily VMT was converted to annual VMT. On-road transportation emissions were calculated using the updated VMT data and updated emissions factors were derived from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) EMission FACtor (EMFAC) 2021 on-road model. In addition, passenger and commercial electric vehicle (EV) electricity consumption was updated using EMFAC 2021. Passenger and commercial EV emissions from electricity consumption are subtracted from residential and commercial energy emissions respectively and then added to the transportation sector for 2019. In forecast years, emissions from EV charging are attributed to the transportation sector. This emissions reallocation is labeled as an “EV adjustment” in the forecasts.

Table 3 Santa Cruz Historical On-Road Annual VMT and GHG Emissions On-Road Total Annual VMT 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019
On-Road Total Annual VMT 397,305,791 397,057,721 396,809,806 396,561,890 406,985,890 On-Road Total CO2e Emissions (MT) 204,940 198,684 184,181 177,773 179,967 Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

CO2 = carbon dioxide; CH4 = methane; N2O = nitrous oxide; CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent

1.56 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Updated Santa Cruz 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory
A detailed summary of the updated 2019 GHG emissions inventory, incorporating the aforementioned on-road and off-road transportation updates, is provided in Table 4.

Table 4 Santa Cruz 2019 GHG Emissions Inventory Summary GHG Emissions Sector/Source
CO2
(MT)
CH4
(MT)
N2O
(MT)
CO2e
(MT)
Activity Data Activity
Data Units
Transportation
Aggregated On-Road Transportation 176,445.5 14.1 11.8 179,966.9 406,985,890 VMT Aggregated On-Road Transportation – EV
Adjustment

9.9 0.0 0.0 11.9 2,186,508 kWh
Off-Road - Diesel 3,646.9 0.09 0.17 3,693.3 357,192 U.S. Gallons Off-Road - Gasoline 3,976.9 4.12 0.06 4,108.1 452,948 U.S. Gallons Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 1,124.1 0.15 0.08 1,149.8 197,910 U.S. Gallons Residential
Residential Electricity - 3CE 288.2 0.95 0.12 345.4 63,591,331 kWh Non Government Electricity - PG&E 3.0 0.04 0.00 5.2 2,452,316 kWh Residential Electricity – EV Adjustment -8.0 -0.03 0.00 -9.6 -1,771,071 kWh County Natural Gas 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 Therms
Non Government Natural Gas 42,244.0 3.98 0.08 42,377.0 7,967,582 Therms Commercial
County Electricity - 3CE 20.5 0.07 0.01 24.6 4,523,275 kWh City Electricity - 3CE 49.8 0.16 0.02 59.7 10,985,268 kWh Non Government Electricity - 3CE 709.9 2.35 0.28 850.9 156,663,619 kWh District Electricity - 3CE 22.2 0.07 0.01 26.6 4,901,850 kWh City Electricity - PG&E 0.3 0.00 0.00 0.5 236,870 kWh
District Electricity - PG&E 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 8,552 kWh County Electricity - PG&E 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.0 5,140 kWh
Commercial Electricity – EV Adjustment -10.4 -0.03 0.00 -12.5 -437,286 kWh County Natural Gas 791.1 0.07 0.00 793.6 149,201 Therms City Natural Gas 591.5 0.06 0.00 593.4 111,569 Therms
District Natural Gas 978.7 0.09 0.00 981.7 184,583 Therms Non Government Natural Gas 19,825.0 1.87 0.04 19,887.0 3,739,129 Therms Wastewater
Emissions from the Combustion of
Digester Gas
2,633.1 0.16 0.03 13.0 84,002,000 scf/Year
Process N2O Emissions from Wastewater
Treatment
N/A N/A 0.43 114.9 108,393 population
in service
area
Emissions Associated with Effluents to
Ocean
N/A N/A 2.36 626.5 825 kg N/day

1.57 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Solid Waste
Solid Waste Disposed of Outside
Jurisdiction
N/A 138.71 N/A 3,883.8 13,575 wet tons of
waste
City of Santa Cruz Resource Recovery
Facility
N/A 539.01 N/A 15,092.0 52,751 wet tons of
waste
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding.

NA = not applicable; CO2 = carbon dioxide; CH4 = methane; N2O = nitrous oxide; CO2e = carbon dioxide equivalent; PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric Company; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; kWh = kilowatt-hour Business-as-Usual GHG Emissions Forecast
A Business as Usual (BAU) GHG emissions forecast uses demographic projections and modeled on-road and off-road transportation emissions to estimate future GHG emissions without also considering the influence that compliance with adopted GHG reduction legislation or policies may have to reduce GHG emissions in the future. The BAU forecast is based on projected growth trends in population, and employment over time, consistent with local and regional projections. The BAU forecast does not account for GHG emissions reductions associated with local GHG reduction measures or legislative actions. BAU forecasts were estimated for 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045. The BAU GHG emissions projections were calculated based on the guidance of the Association of Environmental Professionals 2012 whitepaper Forecasting Communitywide GHG Emissions and Setting Reduction Targets.2 To develop a GHG emissions forecast, the appropriate “growth metrics” (e.g., population, housing, and employment projections) are multiplied by BAU “growth indicators,” (e.g., kilowatt hours of electricity used in households in 2019 divided by the number of households in 2019). This allows for projections of activity data that can be converted into GHG emissions estimates using specific GHG emissions factors, which is assumed to be the same in the future as in the 2019 GHG emissions inventory for most sectors.

The result is a BAU forecast in which GHG emissions change with time in relation to demographics, with the assumption that per capita activity data will continue in the future as it was in 2019, the year of the most recent GHG emissions inventory. This methodology is used for most GHG emissions sectors and sources included in the 2019 GHG emissions inventory. Exceptions include:
§ 3CE emissions factors, which are projected to increase through 2025 before decreasing again due to 3CE’s published procurement strategy – more detail provided in the Emissions Factors section below.
§ On-road transportation emissions, which are projected using the EMFAC Model, which models a business-as-usual scenario.
§ Off-road transportation emissions, which are forecasted using the OFFROAD 2021 model, which models a business-as-usual scenario.

The following provides an overview of the growth metrics, growth indicators, and GHG emissions factors used to project GHG emissions for the BAU forecast calculations.

Growth Metrics
In this BAU GHG emissions forecast, GHG emissions are assumed to be largely driven by consumption of fuel and energy, and generation of solid waste and wastewater by residents, households, and 2 Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP). Forecasting Community-Wide Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Setting Reduction Targets.

Available: <https://califaep.org/docs/Forecasting_and_Target_Setting.pdf>. Accessed December 8, 2021.

1.58 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

employees in a jurisdiction.3 As such, this forecast assumes that as population and employment grow over time, it is expected that without changes to behaviors, policies, or technologies, GHG emissions will also grow. In a BAU forecast, this growth is assumed to be the primary metric for determining changes in future GHG emissions. For the Santa Cruz planning area, the growth and demographic projections used as the growth metrics for the BAU GHG emissions forecast were drawn from the Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) 2022 Regional Growth Forecast. AMBAG updates its regional forecast for population, housing, and employment to support planning efforts. A yearly increase in housing stock commensurate with the Regional Housing Needs Assessment (RHNA) allocations for 2015- 2023 is attributed yearly from 2015 to 2045. Santa Cruz growth metrics for the BAU forecast are provided in Table 5.

Table 5 Growth Metrics for Santa Cruz BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Growth Metric 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Population1 65,041 68,845 72,218 75,257 78,828 79,534
Employment2 24,193 25,465 26,045 26,441 26,762 26,992
Service Population3 40,343 44,317 45,594 46,863 48,203 49,636 Housing4 105,384 113,162 117,812 122,120 127,031 129,170 Notes: Service Population = Population + Employment
1-4. The compound growth rate for 2015-2020 period was used to estimate 2019 values.

Source:

Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG). 2020. Final 2022 Regional Growth Forecast. Available:
<https://www.ambag.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/Final%20Draft%202022%20Regional%20Growth%20Forecast_PDF_A.pdf>. Accessed August 24, 2021
3 All GHG emissions and forecasts are in the context of a CEQA-qualified Climate Action Plan and follow guidance from California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan, which excludes sources largely outside of jurisdictional control, such as consumption-related emissions.

1.59 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Growth Indicators
Growth indicators were developed from the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventories by dividing the activity data for each emissions source by the appropriate growth metric for the year 2020. The appropriate growth metric used for each growth indicator is developed based on the relevance of the GHG emissions source. For example, residential energy consumption would be expected to grow with the number of new households, commercial energy consumption would be expected to grow with the number of new jobs, and total solid waste generation would be expected to grow with both residents and employment (service population). Table 6 provides the growth metrics that were associated with each GHG emissions sector to develop growth indicators and project GHG emissions from each GHG emissions source in the respective sectors. Table 7 provides the growth indicators for Santa Cruz for each GHG emissions source.

Table 6 Growth Metrics and Associated GHG Emissions Sectors GHG Emissions
Sector GHG Emission Source Associated Growth Metric
Growth Metric Data
Source
Transportation All GHG Emissions Sources Service Population AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast
Residential
All GHG Emissions Sources except EV
Adjustment Households AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast Residential Electricity - EV Adjustment Service Population AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast
Commercial
All GHG Emissions Sources except EV
Adjustment Employment AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast Commercial Electricity – EV Adjustment Service Population AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast
Wastewater All GHG Emissions Sources Service Population AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast
Solid Waste All GHG Emissions Sources Service Population AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast

1.60 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Table 7 Growth Indicators for BAU GHG Emissions Forecast GHG Emissions Source Growth Indicator Units
Residential
Non Government Electricity - PG&E 98.6 kWh/Household
County Natural Gas 0.0 Therms/Household
Non Government Natural Gas 329.3 Therms/Household
Commercial
City Electricity - PG&E 5.9 kWh/Employee
District Electricity - PG&E 0.2 kWh/Employee
County Electricity - PG&E 0.1 kWh/Employee
County Natural Gas 3.7 Therms/Employee
City Natural Gas 2.8 Therms/Employee
District Natural Gas 4.6 Therms/Employee
Non Government Natural Gas 92.7 Therms/Employee
Wastewater
Emissions from the Combustion of Digester Gas 797.1 scf/Year/Person Served Process N2O Emissions from Wastewater
Treatment

1.0 Population in Service Area/Person
Served
Emissions Associated with Effluents to Ocean 0.0 kg N/day/Person Served Solid Waste
Solid Waste Disposed of Outside Jurisdiction 0.1 Wet Tons of Waste/Person Served City of Santa Cruz Resource Recovery Facility 0.5 Wet Tons of Waste/Person Served Notes: PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric Company; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; EV = electric vehicle; kWh = kilowatt-hour; scf = standard cubic foot; kg N = kilograms of nitrogen.

On-road transportation and off-road transportation BAU growth indicators not provided because BAU projections were modeled using the EMFAC and OFFROAD2021 models, respectively. 3CE BAU growth indicators not provided because 3CE energy BAU projections were estimated using 3CE published emissions factors based on confirmed changes in procurement strategy. 1 Person Served includes residents and employees (service population)

1.61 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

On-Road Activity Data
Activity data for the forecast of on-road transportation was modeled separately from the above growth metrics and growth indicators, using the Santa Cruz County travel demand model. Trip data was allocated based on whether the entirety of a trip took place within the City of Santa Cruz transit area, started or ended within the transit area, or started and ended outside of the transit area. 100 percent of daily trips completely within the jurisdiction, 50 percent of partially-within trips, and 0 percent of outside trips were allocated to the city. Reference Appendix A for the detailed VMT methodology. Daily VMT data was annualized using the annualization factor of 347, described in the EMFAC 2017 documentation for Light Duty Autos and Light Duty Trucks 1 and 2. The results are summarized in Table 8.

Table 8 Santa Cruz BAU GHG Emissions Forecast On-Road Transportation Data Growth
Metric
2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
VMT 406,985,890 427,528,637 444,647,535 461,766,086 478,884,984 496,003,882 406,985,890 Notes: VMT = vehicle miles traveled
Off-Road Activity Data
Activity data for the off-road GHG emissions forecast was modeled separately from the above growth metrics and growth indicators, using the outputs from the CARB OFFROAD2021 model. The OFFROAD2021 model was run for Santa Cruz County for the forecast years to obtain fuel consumption for gasoline, diesel, and natural gas. The equipment sectors drawn from the OFFROAD2021 model include:
▪ Construction and Mining Equipment
▪ Industrial Equipment
▪ Lawn and Garden Equipment
▪ Light Commercial Equipment
▪ Pleasure Craft
▪ Recreational Equipment
▪ Portable Equipment
▪ Transportation Refrigeration Units
The results of the OFFROAD2021 model were summarized for the above equipment sectors in Santa Cruz County. Santa Cruz City was allocated a percentage of county fuel consumption for each sector relative to Santa Cruz City’s proportion of jobs or population in the county. The results are summarized in Table 9.

1.62 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Table 9 Santa Cruz BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Off-Road Fuel Consumption Off-road Fuel Category 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Diesel 361,388 408,104 432,205 459,180 486,713 541,090
Gasoline 459,542 486,615 504,663 521,901 537,927 555,690 Natural Gas 206,367 207,364 207,852 210,232 211,353 213,175 Notes: All values are of the unit U.S. gallons of fuel.

Source: California Air Resources Board. 2021. OFFROAD2021 – ORION. Available: <https://arb.ca.gov/emfac/emissionsinventory/43c4fb407b5290c4aa6bc403e03c79c39ed6224a/>. Accessed November 2, 2021.

Emissions Factors
The BAU GHG emissions forecast is representative of a scenario where per capita community activities are generally similar to that of the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory and GHG emissions change based on projected population and job growth. As such, BAU activity data is multiplied by the emissions factors used to calculate GHG emissions from the baseline GHG emissions inventory to generate an estimate of future GHG emissions without influence from GHG reduction policies at the State or local level. The BAU GHG emissions factors for the relevant GHG emissions sources and sectors are provided in Table 10, reported in MT CO2e.

Table 10 BAU GHG Emissions Factors
GHG Emissions Source GHG Emissions Factor Units
Transportation
Aggregated On-Road Transportation 0.0004421945 MT CO2e/VMT Aggregated On-Road Transportation - EV Adjust 0.0000054266 MT CO2e/kWh Off-Road - Diesel 0.0103397100 MT CO2e/U.S. Gallons
Off-Road – Gasoline 0.0090696385 MT CO2e/U.S. Gallons
Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 0.0058095100 MT CO2e/U.S. Gallons Residential
Residential Electricity - 3CE 0.0000054312 MT CO2e/kWh
Non Government Electricity - PG&E 0.0000021156 MT CO2e/kWh County Natural Gas 0.0053187000 MT CO2e/Therms
Non Government Natural Gas 0.0053186776 MT CO2e/Therms
Commercial
County Electricity - 3CE 0.0000054312 MT CO2e/kWh
City Electricity - 3CE 0.0000054314 MT CO2e/kWh
Non Government Electricity - 3CE 0.0000054313 MT CO2e/kWh District Electricity - 3CE 0.0000054314 MT CO2e/kWh
City Electricity - PG&E 0.0000021155 MT CO2e/kWh
District Electricity - PG&E 0.0000021155 MT CO2e/kWh
County Electricity - PG&E 0.0000021156 MT CO2e/kWh
Commercial Electricity - EV Adjust 0.0053186641 MT CO2e/kWh County Natural Gas 0.0053186817 MT CO2e/Therms

1.63 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

City Natural Gas 0.0053186371 MT CO2e/Therms
District Natural Gas 0.0053186183 MT CO2e/Therms
Non Government Natural Gas 0.0000054312 MT CO2e/Therms
Wastewater
Emissions from the Combustion of Digester Gas 0.0000001544 MT CO2e/scf/Year Process N2O Emissions from Wastewater
Treatment 0.0010600316 MT CO2e/population in service area Emissions Associated with Effluents to Ocean 0.7598059430 MT CO2e/kg N/day Solid Waste
Solid Waste Disposed of Outside Jurisdiction 0.2860994475 MT CO2e/wet tons of waste City of Santa Cruz Resource Recovery Facility 0.2860988417 MT CO2e/wet tons of waste Notes: MT CO2e = metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent; PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric Company; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; kWh = kilowatt-hour; scf = standard cubic foot; kg N = kilograms of nitrogen Electricity BAU GHG Emissions Factors
GHG emissions associated with electricity provided by Central Coast Community Energy (3CE) are expected to change between the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory and the 2030 forecast year, and as such are accounted for in the BAU GHG emissions forecast. 3CE has published the expected GHG emissions factor associated with its electricity procurement between 2018 and 2030, with the GHG emissions factors increasing between 2020 and 2025, before decreasing again from 2026 to 2030.

These changes to the emissions factor are expected to occur regardless of the effects related to compliance with local policies and state legislation. As such, it would not be appropriate to account for these adjustments in the legislative reductions in the Adjusted forecast, and they are instead accounted for here in the BAU forecast. GHG reductions associated with 3CE electricity and the requirements of SB 100 beyond 2030 are accounted for in the Adjusted Forecast. PG&E emissions factors are applied to all PG&E energy provided, meaning for any customers opting out of 3CE energy.

Table 11 provides the GHG emissions factors used in the BAU forecast for 3CE and PG&E provided electricity for each of the forecast years. The weighted average of the two providers is used to project BAU electricity emissions from electric vehicles.

Table 11 BAU GHG Emissions Factors for Electricity
Electricity Provider 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Central Coast
Community Energy
(3CE)

0.000005431 0.000176000 0.000003725 0.000000000 0.000000000 0.000000000 Pacific Gas and
Electric (PG&E)

0.000002116 0.000002116 0.000002116 0.000002116 0.000002116 0.000002116 Weighted Average 0.000005308 0.000169544 0.000003665 0.000000079 0.000000079 0.000000079 Notes: All values are of the unit metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour.

Source:

Reference 3CE power content label

1.64 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Results
The following provides a summary of the results of the BAU GHG emissions forecast for each source in Santa Cruz. The results are reported in MT CO2e. The BAU forecast projects an increase in GHG emissions above the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory from transportation, wastewater, and solid waste. In terms of residential and commercial energy, emissions increase from 2019 to 2025, decrease from 2025 to 2030, and then slowly increase through 2045. An increase in the GHG emissions factor for 3CE electricity leading up to 2025 is expected to create a sharp increase in GHG emissions associated with electricity and the overall GHG emissions for the City of Santa Cruz. The subsequent decrease of the 3CE electricity GHG emissions factor results in a leveling off of GHG emissions levels in 2030, at which point steady growth in GHG emissions continues through 2045. Energy provided by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), though only a small proportion of the total energy provided in Santa Cruz, shows an increase over time due to population and job growth. Table 12 and Figure 1 provide a summary of the Santa Cruz BAU GHG emissions forecast.

Table 12 Santa Cruz BAU GHG Emissions Forecast Summary (MT CO2e) GHG Emissions Source 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Transportation 188,930 199,287 206,883 214,893 222,900 231,203 Aggregated On-Road Transportation 179,967 189,051 196,621 204,190 211,760 219,330 Aggregated On-Road Transportation - EV Adjustment 12 398 9 0 0 0 Off-Road – Diesel 3,693 4,220 4,469 4,748 5,032 5,595
Off-Road – Gasoline 4,108 4,413 4,577 4,733 4,879 5,040 Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 1,150 1,205 1,208 1,221 1,228 1,238 Residential 42,718 56,057 45,825 46,319 46,881 47,284
Residential Electricity - 3CE 336 11,448 200 0 0 0
Non Government Electricity - PG&E 5 5 5 6 6 6
County Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non Government Natural Gas 42,377 44,604 45,620 46,314 46,876 47,279 Commercial 23,216 58,599 25,753 25,853 26,592 27,383
County Electricity - 3CE 25 872 15 0 0 0
City Electricity - 3CE 60 2,119 37 0 0 0
Non Government Electricity - 3CE 849 30,214 531 0 0 0
District Electricity - 3CE 27 945 17 0 0 0
City Electricity - PG&E 0 1 1 1 1 1
District Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0 0
County Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0 0
County Natural Gas 794 872 897 922 948 976
City Natural Gas 593 652 671 689 709 730
District Natural Gas 982 1,078 1,110 1,140 1,173 1,208
Non Government Natural Gas 19,887 21,846 22,475 23,101 23,761 24,468

1.65 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Wastewater 754 810 843 874 909 925
Emissions from the Combustion of Digester Gas 13 14 15 15 16 16 Process N2O Emissions from Wastewater Treatment 115 123 128 133 139 141 Emissions Associated with Effluents to Ocean 626 673 700 726 755 768 Solid Waste 18,976 20,376 21,214 21,989 22,874 23,259
Solid Waste Disposed of Outside Jurisdiction 3,884 4,170 4,342 4,501 4,682 4,760 City of Santa Cruz Resource Recovery Facility 15,092 16,206 16,872 17,489 18,192 18,498 TOTAL 284,059 345,093 310,860 320,668 331,294 341,589
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding All values are of the unit metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e) To avoid double counting EV emissions in 2019 (the inventory year) and to attribute these emissions to the transportation sector, EV emissions were added to the transportation and removed from residential and commercial electricity. Forecast years do not require an adjustment, but rather an addition in emissions based on projected EV adoption, and consequent energy usage, to the transportation sector.

PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric Company; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; N2O = nitrous oxide; EV = electric vehicle Figure 1 Santa Cruz BAU GHG Emissions Forecasts (MT CO2e) through 2045 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
MT CO2e
Year
Transportation Residential Commerical Wastewater Solid Waste

1.66 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecasts
The Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast accounts for GHG emissions reductions that can be reasonably expected from local compliance with State legislation and regulations. These forecasted projections were calculated based on the guidance of the Association of Environmental Professionals 2012 whitepaper Forecasting Communitywide GHG Emissions and Setting Reduction Targets.4 The following section describes the State legislation and regulations that are expected to reduce Santa Cruz’s future GHG emissions.

GHG Reduction Legislation Included in Santa Cruz GHG Emissions Forecasts
The State of California has enacted regulations intended to reduce the state’s future GHG emissions. The impact of compliance with these regulations was quantified and incorporated into an Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast to provide an alternate forecast of future GHG emissions growth based on the City's commitment to achieve a 30% reduction in GHG emissions beyond established State regulations by 2020. The following State legislation were accounted for in the Adjusted Forecasts for Santa Cruz.

They represent currently adopted State legislation with clear implementation and enforcement mechanisms at the regional/state scale.
▪ 2019 Title 24 Building Energy Efficiency Standards
▪ Senate Bill (SB) 100 - California Renewables Portfolio Standard Program: emissions of greenhouse gases
▪ SAFE Part One - U.S. EPA and NHTSA Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient or SAFE Vehicles Rule Part One ▪ Innovative Clean Transit (ICT) Regulation
▪ Pavley Regulation
▪ Advanced Clean Cars Program
▪ Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation
GHG Reduction Legislation Calculations
EMFAC2021 was used to model transportation-related GHG emissions for the Santa Cruz forecasts. In addition, the following methodology was used to calculate energy-related GHG emissions reduction related to Title 24 and SB 100.
▪ Title 24: It is assumed that all growth in the residential sector is from new construction. Accordingly, Title 24 GHG emissions reduction for natural gas and electricity are calculated as a percentage of the projected increase in energy consumption beyond the baseline 2019 GHG emissions inventory, under the BAU forecast, as provided in Table 12. Overall, the energy consumption reduction impact of Title 24 is:
ú 53 percent reduction beyond the 2019 baseline for residential electricity and 4 Association of Environmental Professionals (AEP). Forecasting Community-Wide Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Setting Reduction Targets.

Available: <https://califaep.org/docs/Forecasting_and_Target_Setting.pdf>. Accessed December 8, 2021.

1.67 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

ú 7 percent reduction beyond the 2019 baseline for residential natural gas.5 ▪ SB 100: Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) and Central Coast Community Energy (3CE) currently provide electricity in Santa Cruz and are subject to SB 100 requirements. GHG emissions from electricity consumption are largely determined by the emissions factor associated with the supplied electricity. Legislative GHG emissions reductions from compliance with SB 100 are calculated as the difference between GHG emissions under the BAU GHG Emissions Forecast electricity and GHG emissions calculated using a SB 100-adjusted GHG emissions factor for a given forecast year. An adjusted GHG emission factor is calculated by scaling the baseline electricity GHG emissions factor with the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) 6 percentage for eligible
renewable electricity required for compliance with SB 100. Both of the electricity providers for Santa Cruz had different electricity emissions factors due to different RPS percentages in their electricity delivery mix. The RPS percentages and associated GHG emissions factors used to determine the Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast electricity emissions are provided in Table 13. GHG emissions factors were converted from kilowatt-hour (kWh) to Megawatt-hour (MWh) in the table. Note that while both Title 24 and SB 100 compliance influence GHG emissions reductions in the electricity sector, double counting of these reductions is avoided by accounting for Title 24 compliance reductions first and then accounting for reductions from SB 100 compliance.

Table 13 Electricity Provider Forecasted RPS and Electricity GHG Emissions Factors Energy Provider 2019
(Baseline)
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E)
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Percentage
29% 45% 60% 73% 87% 100%
Adjusted Electricity Emission
Factor (MT CO2e/MWh)

0.0021156 0.0016537 0.0011919 0.0007946 0.0003973 0.0000000 Central Coast Community Energy (3CE)
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Percentage
33% 60% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Adjusted Electricity Emission
Factor (MT CO2e/MWh) 0.005431 0.176000 0.003007 0 0 0
Notes: MT CO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; MWh = Megawatt-hour 5 California Energy Commission. 2018. 2019 Building Energy Efficiency Standards Frequently Asked Questions. Available:
<https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-03/Title_24_2019_Building_Standards_FAQ_ada.pdf>. Accessed June 21, 2021. 6 The RPS is one of California’s key programs for advancing renewable energy. The program sets continuously increasing renewable energy procurement requirements for the state’s load-serving entities.

1.68 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast Results
Compliance with state legislation is expected to result in GHG emissions reduction from the BAU GHG Emissions Forecast in the transportation, residential, and commercial sectors. Compliance with both the Pavley regulation, which requires automakers to control GHG emission from new passenger vehicles for the 2009 through 2016 model years, and the Advanced Clean Car Program, which combines the control of smog-causing (criteria) pollutants and GHG emissions into a single package of regulations, are expected to reduce GHG emissions from transportation. Compliance with Title 24 requirements are expected to reduce GHG emissions from reduced electricity and natural gas consumption in new residential housing units. Compliance with SB 100 requirements are expected to further reduce GHG emissions in the residential sector through reduced GHG emissions associated with electricity generation, as well as similar reductions in the commercial sector. The expected legislative reductions from SB 100 and Title 24 are summarized in Table 14.

Table 14 Santa Cruz Adjusted GHG Emissions Reductions
GHG Emissions Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Transportation Rules Reductions 23,601 43,799 60,091 71,589 79,479 Aggregated On-Road Transportation 24,571 43,830 60,091 71,589 79,479 Aggregated On-Road Transportation – EV Adjust1 -970 -30 0.18 0.19 0.21 Title 24 Reductions 304 2 0 0 0
Residential 304 2 0 0 0
Residential Electricity - 3CE 303 2 0 0 0
Residential Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0
County Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0
Non Government Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0
SB 100 Reductions 1 3 4 5 6
Residential 1 2 3 5 6
Residential Electricity - 3CE 0 0 0 0 0
Residential Electricity - PG&E 1 2 3 5 6
Commercial 0 0 0 1 1
County Electricity - 3CE 0 0 0 0 0
City Electricity - 3CE 0 0 0 0 0
Non Government Electricity - 3CE 0 0 0 0 0
District Electricity - 3CE 0 0 0 0 0
City Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 1
District Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0
County Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL REDUCTIONS 23,906 43,804 60,095 71,594 79,485
Notes:
1 Negative emissions reduction indicate an increase in emissions from electric vehicle adoption, and consequently energy usage. This adjustment goes to zero as the electricity emissions factor goes to zero.

PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; EV = electric vehicle; SB = Senate Bill

1.69 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Figure 2 shows the GHG emissions trends in terms of MT CO2e for the Adjusted Forecast. Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast emissions trend downward over time through 2045.

Figure 2 Santa Cruz Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecasts (MT CO2e) through 2045 Figure 3 shows the GHG emissions trends in terms of MT CO2e over the course of the BAU and Adjusted forecasts to illustrate the influence of compliance with state legislation on projected GHG emissions. The BAU GHG Emissions Forecast projects an overall increase of GHG emissions with population, housing, and employment growth. A substantial increase in GHG emissions is expected between 2019 and 2025 due to increased GHG emissions associated with electricity delivered by 3CE caused by a potential increase in GHG-generating electricity sources. However, these emissions are projected to decrease again leading up to 2030 and are expected to remain low compared to 2025 levels for the remainder of the forecast period. Compliance with SB 100 and Title 24 are expected to provide some reductions in GHG emissions resulting from reduced electricity consumption and a reduction in residential natural gas consumption required in association with new construction. However, since GHG emissions associated with electricity consumption are already low, the GHG reduction impact of these programs may be minimal.
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
MT CO2e
Year
Transportation Residential Commerical Wastewater Solid Waste

1.70 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Figure 3 Santa Cruz BAU and Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecasts (MT CO2e) through 2045 Table 15 provides the results summary of the GHG emissions forecast for Santa Cruz, including the BAU GHG Emissions Forecast, the Adjusted GHG Forecast, and the expected percentage GHG emissions reduction based on compliance with state GHG legislation.

Table 15 Santa Cruz GHG Emissions Forecast Results Summary 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Business-as-Usual Forecast 274,594 335,150 300,519 309,929 320,156 330,054 Transportation Reductions 0 23,601 43,799 60,091 71,589 79,479 Title 24 Reductions 0 304 2 0 0 0
SB 100 Reductions 0 1 3 4 5 6
Legislative Adjusted Forecast 274,594 311,244 256,715 249,834 248,562 250,569 Percent Reduction in GHG
Emissions from Legislation

0.0% 7.1% 14.6% 19.4% 22.4% 24.1%
SB = Senate Bill; GHG = greenhouse gas
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Business-as-Usual GHG Emissions Forecast Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast

1.71 City of Santa Cruz
Climate and Energy Action Plan

Table 16 provides more detail including emissions (in MT CO2e) by sector for milestone years from 2025 through 2045.

Table 16 Santa Cruz Adjusted GHG Emissions Forecast Detail (MT CO2e) GHG Emissions Source 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Transportation 188,930 199,287 206,883 214,893 222,900
Aggregated On-Road Transportation 179,967 189,051 196,621 204,190 211,760 Aggregated On-Road Transportation - EV Adjust 12 398 9 0 0 Off-Road - Diesel 3,693 4,220 4,469 4,748 5,032
Off-Road - Gasoline 4,108 4,413 4,577 4,733 4,879
Off-Road - Natural Gas (LPG) 1,150 1,205 1,208 1,221 1,228 Residential 42,718 56,074 45,826 46,319 46,881
Residential Electricity - 3CE 336 11,464 200 0 0
Non Government Electricity - PG&E 5 5 5 6 6
County Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0
Non Government Natural Gas 42,377 44,604 45,620 46,314 46,876 Commercial 23,216 58,603 25,753 25,853 26,592
County Electricity - 3CE 25 872 15 0 0
City Electricity - 3CE 60 2,119 37 0 0
Non Government Electricity - 3CE 849 30,218 531 0 0
District Electricity - 3CE 27 945 17 0 0
City Electricity - PG&E 0 1 1 1 1
District Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0
County Electricity - PG&E 0 0 0 0 0
County Natural Gas 794 872 897 922 948
City Natural Gas 593 652 671 689 709
District Natural Gas 982 1,078 1,110 1,140 1,173
Non Government Natural Gas 19,887 21,846 22,475 23,101 23,761 Wastewater 754 810 843 874 909
Emissions from the Combustion of Digester Gas 13 14 15 15 16 Process N2O Emissions from Wastewater Treatment 115 123 128 133 139 Emissions Associated with Effluents to Ocean 626 673 700 726 755 Solid Waste 18,976 20,376 21,214 21,989 22,874
Solid Waste Disposed of Outside Jurisdiction 3,884 4,170 4,342 4,501 4,682 City of Santa Cruz Resource Recovery Facility 15,092 16,206 16,872 17,489 18,192 TOTAL 274,594 335,150 300,519 309,929 320,156
Notes: Values in this table may not add up to totals due to rounding All values are of the unit metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO2e) PG&E = Pacific Gas and Electric; 3CE = Central Coast Community Energy; N2O = nitrous oxide

1.72 1
Rosemary Balsley
From: Garrett <[email protected]>
Sent: Saturday, January 15, 2022 5:41 PM
To: City Council
Subject: 1.18.22 Agenda Item #1 Climate Action Plan

1.18.22 Agenda Item #1 Climate Action Plan
Dear Council,
I can see you are spending a lot of money under the guise of one of the greatest scams in history, namely the CO2 climate change panic save the planet mass hysteria.

While I agree moving away from fossil fuels is itself desirable since pollution is itself unwanted and those sources of energy are not limitless, the panic "end of the world" fear tactics of the advocates who want to wield power and spend money need reigning in.

The "science" is nowhere advanced enough to say for sure the world will end in 10 years if massive action is not taken. We can't figure out whether this year to the next is a drought or not. There have been 100 year droughts, and short ones, it means little. the earth has been hotter, and colder before. The earth has had much higher CO2 before , and less. The earth is not static but also resilient, and very unpredictable even 50-100 years out. The earth has been warming for 20,000 years, but also undergoes some cooling periods along with the hot. The idea man can control climate is a lie. The idea man can predict climate 50-100 years out is a lie. We can't predict even weather much beyond a few weeks let alone climate many years out. The sea has been rising for 20,000 years. It's better to be too hot than too cold. If the earth were 2 degrees cooler, we'd be under 2 miles of ice.

This is to say your blowing a LOT of money in staff, blowing fear bubbles, and little will be shown for it.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, Santa Cruz can do that can be proven to have an effect on climate of the earth.

Yes, get used to the idea we will have to move away from the shore a bit over the next 100 years, but it won't be all that far for most people.

Admit renewable energy isn't ready for all out prime time and legislating away the use of fossil fuels before we are able and have RELIABLE renewable replacements is a fools errand.

From your own data, natural gas should be relived on most heavily as a replacement to coal and oil energy. This is doable, but in your ignorance you legislated away using natural gas last year in new homes. Stupid.

The EU has now finally admitted on Jan 5 that nuclear and natural gas will be considered clean energy. Smart.

The sun don't shine at night, the wind doesn't always blow, the all the rivers are dammed with hydro, and we can't store that energy with cost effective or even energy efficient, or pollution avoiding means.

Even solar panels are an eco disaster looming when they fail in 25 years.

Yes, fear mongering sells, allows the expenditure of vast sums of money, corrupt favors are passed out, and gas prices soar (Let's go Brandon!).

I missed the part where you calculated the exact climate benefit as a fraction of global climate change and how you will be measuring proof of that estimated benefit, in a cost per benefit analysis. I see only blind assumptions of fear.

I assume you mean "global warming" benefit, you don't really say.

I searched for "cow farts" in your documents, you missed that one.

Have a nice meeting.

1.73 2
Garrett Philipp - Westside

1.74 Santa Cruz Climate Action Plan 2030 | City Council Study Session Approach to GHG Reduction Targets, Measures

1.75 Placeholder for closed captioning / translation slides from resilient coast / how to rename oneself for gender pronous

1.76 3
● Receive update on Climate Action Plan 2030 development progress ● Discuss considerations of various potential emissions reduction targets Objectives of Study Session
Goal of Climate Action Plan 2030
development process:
● Prepare a CEQA qualified CAP that meets state targets ● Determine the year and most equitable pathway to carbon neutrality

1.77 1.78 4

EQUITY SCREENING TOOL
CAP 2030 Process and Components
VALUES +
VISION
GOALS
+

TARGETS

ACTIONS
CAP 2030

INCLUDING
FUNDING +

IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS

MEASURES

1.79 CAP 2030 Process and Components
VALUES
+ VISION

EMISSIONS

TARGETS

COMMUNITY
GOALS

CLIMATE

RESTORATION

MEASURES

EMISSIONS

REDUCTION

ACTIONS

CLIMATE

SUPPORTIVE

ACTIONS
CLIMATE RESTORATION:
• Regenerative Landscapes
• Urban Forest and
Sequestration
• Co-benefits like Air
Quality/Habitat/Ocean
Protection/ Healthy
Soils/Green Infrastructure
CLIMATE ECONOMY:
• Green Jobs + Sectors
• Consumption
• Diet
• Others
CAP 2030

INCLUDING
FUNDING +

IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS
CAP 2030

GUIDANCE

CRITERIA

APPLIED TO

ACTIONS

INCLUDING
EQUITY

SCREENING
TOOL

EMISSIONS

REDUCTION

MEASURES
(FOR CEQA

QUALIFIED
CAP)

CLIMATE

ECONOMY

MEASURES

1.80 CAP 2030 Process and Components
VALUES
+ VISION

EMISSIONS

TARGETS

COMMUNITY
GOALS

CLIMATE

RESTORATION

MEASURES

EMISSIONS

REDUCTION

ACTIONS

CLIMATE

SUPPORTIVE

ACTIONS
CLIMATE RESTORATION:
• Regenerative Landscapes
• Urban Forest and
Sequestration
• Co-benefits like Air
Quality/Habitat/Ocean
Protection/ Healthy
Soils/Green Infrastructure
CLIMATE ECONOMY:
• Green Jobs + Sectors
• Consumption
• Diet
• Others
CAP 2030

INCLUDING
FUNDING +

IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS
CAP 2030

GUIDANCE

CRITERIA

APPLIED TO

ACTIONS

INCLUDING
EQUITY

SCREENING
TOOL

EMISSIONS

REDUCTION

MEASURES
(FOR CEQA

QUALIFIED
CAP)

CLIMATE

ECONOMY

MEASURES

1.81 Engagement Process…
Visioning Engagement
● Padlet (65 unique individuals)
● Email comments (60)
● 16 in person events
● Several talks
Goal Setting Engagement
● 278 Survey responses to 2
dozen potential goal statements
● +50 frontline survey responses
● Small group meetings
● Several talks
=
VALUES
+ VISION

1.82 Initial Community Vision & Values
Vision: Rapidly enact climate solutions that support and enhance an equitable community with robust active and public transportation, plentiful housing that is affordable, sustainable, and resilient, and regenerative landscapes.

Values:
• Ensure equity in all policies
• Build people-centric transportation infrastructure
• Promote efficient and low carbon/no carbon buildings, energy + water
• Protect and enhance natural resources and urban parks • Eliminate food waste and support local food sources
An Aspirational +
Equitable Climate
Vision grounded in
Science + Data

1.83 Equity Screening Tool Creation Process
SCREENING AREAS:
• Community Health + Safety
• Just Green Jobs Facilitation
+ Creation
• Cultural Vibrancy
• Accessibility
• Accountability
• Affordability
VALUES +

VISION MEASURES

1.84 Equity Considerations Recap
Emissions Reduction Measures
Energy
• Consider affordability and impacts of
electrification
• Consider the ability of renters to electrify
• Ensure that benefits from distributed energy
resources (e.g. solar) are distributed equally
Transportation
• Take into account the affordability of EVs
and bikes
• Promote safe and inclusive access to
active, public, and electric transportation,
including for people of different mobilities
• Ensure equitable outreach for rebates and
programs
Water, Waste, and Wastewater
• Ensure that renters and multifamily
residents can participate in water
efficiency/ waste programs
• Conduct equitable and intentional outreach
to frontline communities
• Consider economic impact of water use/
upgrades

MEASURES

1.85 Applying Equity Screening Tool to Actions
• Each action evaluated through questions for each
screening area
• Is the action...
• Beneficial (+)
• Neutral (0)
• Harmful (-)
• An action cannot cause harm to frontline, lowincome communities or communities of color • If an action does cause harm, it was revised, or
there is a complementary action that mitigates that
harm ACTIONS

1.86 …Engagement Process (Jan - May)
^Public Dialog Platform
On Draft Actions
More focus
groups
(Feb)
City Council
Study
Session
(March)

REFINED

ACTIONS
VALUES +
VISION

REFINED
GOALS
+

TARGETS

MEASURES ACTIONS
draft
FUNDING +

IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS
CAP 2030, CEQA,
FUNDING +

IMPLEMENTATION
PLANS
(Webinar - May
Adopted - Aug)
+

1.87 Break for Questions before
Target Setting Slides + Discussion

1.88 Emissions Reduction
Target Setting
1) CEQA Qualified CAP Target
• Mass or Per Capita
1) Aspirational or Stretch Targets
GOALS
+

TARGETS
Can adopt one or both

1.89 CEQA Qualified CAPs & State Scoping
★ Strongest lever to reduce
emissions in development
★ Streamlines CEQA
requirements
To develop, City must:
1) Conduct a GHG Inventory for
areas under local influence
2) Identify a GHG reduction
target consistent with State
goals
3) Monitor progress of reaching
State Goals
2019 Santa Cruz Community-Wide
Emissions Inventory
~3% of Community-wide Emissions are from Municipal Operations Carbon Sequestration not part of State Scoping Plan - yet 43% within city
26% start/end
in/out city

1.90 Potential Emissions Reduction Targets
CEQA Qualified Targets (legally defensible)
❑ AB 32: 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels (adopted in 2020 CAP) ❑ SB 32: 40% reduction by 2030 from 1990 levels (9% reduction 1990 to 2020) * Minimum required for CEQA
*Puts us on path to Carbon Neutrality by 2045
*SB 32+ is also possible (>40%) if can demonstrate + attain feasible actions Aspirational or Stretch Targets (voluntary)
❑ State Carbon Neutrality Goal of 2045
❑ Science Based Target (60.7% reduction from 2019 by 2030) ❑ Aspirational Target of Carbon Neutrality by 2030 or 2035 1.91 City of Santa Cruz Forecasts
SB 32: 40%
reduction by
2030 from 1990
levels
(minimum
required for
CEQA) +
Pathway to
carbon neutral
by 2045.

1.92 *
Carbon sequestration is outside
of CEQA qualified CAP but under
consideration in the Scoping Plan
Update
CAP Measures

1.93 Emissions Reduction Measure Refinement Process
● Held working meetings with department heads and other stakeholders responsible for measure and action implementation
● Developed Suite of actions that exceed state minimum
● Aggressive, yet feasible, implementable, and defensible *Implementable actions are a key requirement of a CEQA CAP

1.94 2030 GHG Reduction Potential | 26% of emissions
Exceeds the SB32 Required Target
>40% reduction from 1990 by 2030 & pathway to carbon neutral by 2045
Measures - Reduce natural gas usage by 33% in residential buildings - Reduce natural gas usage by 30% in commercial buildings - Approach = time of replacement (natural gas equipment must be replaced with electric equipment at end of useful life) - Assumed non-compliance
○ (6% res; 1.6% comm requires permit compliance program) Costs - ~$117M to electrofit 9,360 dwelling units ($5k - $30k/DU - w/o rebates) - ~$3.2M to electrofit 30% of commercial spaces (exc. industrial spaces) - Roadmap developed in parallel to CAP - complete by July Energy Reduction Measures

1.95 Key Implementation Actions
Key Electrification Actions for SB 32 by 2030
● Pass an existing building electrification ordinance prohibiting new natural gas equipment in the City by 2024.
● Enforce compliance with new building natural gas prohibition and existing bldg electrification ordinances
● Co-develop a tariffed on-bill financing program

1.96 2030 GHG Reduction Potential | 69% of emissions
Exceeds the SB32 Required Target
>40% reduction from 1990 by 2030 & pathway to carbon neutral by 2045 Measures - 25% active transportation mode share (19.5% now) - 8% public transportation mode share (7% now; assume no rail thru 2030) - 35% passenger EV mode share (<5% pas+com now)
- 25% commercial EV mode share (<5% pas+com now)
- 50% off-road equipment decarbonized
Costs - Active transportation infrastructure-related costs by the City w/grants - Public transit requires partner cooperation + major grant investments - Community-wide EV + charging investment >$500M
- Residential EV investment w/o rebates ~$5k - $30k/used or new EV - Commercial EV investment w/o rebates can exceed $100k/EV Transportation Reduction Measures

1.97 Key Implementation Actions
Key Transportation Actions for SB32 by 2030
● Add 1,247 new publicly accessible Level 2 and 3 EV chargers ● Require residential rental + commercial building owners to install working electric vehicle chargers in 20% of parking spaces. ● Reduce number of vehicles in high-traffic zone(s) or on roads where other transit options are available implementing congestion charge that applies to passenger cars and car-sharing services with exceptions for handicap drivers and residents of those areas. ● Focus on telework and evaluate land use to keep people working in town

1.98 Waste/Wastewater Reduction Measures
2030 GHG Reduction Potential | 8% of emissions
Exceeds the SB32 Required Target
>40% reduction from 1990 by 2030 & pathway to carbon neutral by 2045 Measures - 85% reduction in organic waste
- 35% reduction in inorganic waste
- 0% reduction in wastewater process emissions
Costs - Reducing wastewater process emissions, though only a small part of the City’s overall emissions, would require substantial financial investments from the City
- Organic waste handling is a City cost with likely grant funding to assist

1.99 Key Implementation Actions
Key Waste Actions for SB 32 by 2030
● Implement an organic waste solution beyond food waste program. ● Heavy education
IN SUM, SB32 minimum requires…
● reduce from 4.2 to 3.7 MT/CO2e per person by 2030
● ~$750M in investment community-wide by 2030
● Ramped up municipal staffing + investment by 2030 (>$50M)

1.100
Potential Emissions Reduction from Measures
Emissions after Measure Reductions exceeds SB32>>

1.101
SB32+ Can we be more aggressive?
Yes, but would require more aggressive actions
● Require replacement of natural gas appliance before the end of their useful life through mandatory ordinance
● Substantially increase cost of driving single occupancy/gas vehicles through additional taxes/parking fees
● Institute other zero-emission vehicle areas in the City ● Ban cars in high traffic zones to increase public and active transportation
● Set a date for natural gas shut-off citywide (e.g., 2030 or 2035) CEQA CAP must be able to achieve real reductions + be legally defensible 1.102 City of Santa Cruz Forecasts
SB 32: 40%
reduction by
2030 from
1990 levels
(required for
CEQA).

Pathway to
carbon neutral
by 2045.
^Not CA specific
^ Climate Safe CA Target
^ Under consideration for new State Carbon Neutral target

1.103
City of Santa Cruz Forecasts
SB 32: 40%
reduction by
2030 from
1990 levels
(required for
CEQA).

Pathway to
carbon neutral
by 2045.
^Not CA specific
Carbon sequestration
Climate economy
Carbon Capture Technology
More aggressive measures
^ Climate Safe CA Target

1.104
Possible Stretch Target Approaches
● Adopt a linear reduction to carbon neutrality by 2045 ● Establish a visionary/aspirational goal of carbon neutrality by 2035 or 2030, with a strong focus on equity
○ Lean into climate restoration + economy measures (outside of CEQA CAP) ○ Focus acceleration municipally under areas of control ○ Enable innovation + pursuit of new technologies and opportunities ○ Adjust to address equity concerns as they arise
Update the CAP every 5 years to account for new opportunities and changing technologies/legislation 1.105
What Other Jurisdictions are Doing
City of San Luis Obispo Climate Action Plan for Community Recovery* - Carbon neutrality by 2035
City of Watsonville 2030 Climate Action and Adaptation Plan* - Aspirational goal of net-negative emissions by 2030
- Legal target 80% below 1990 levels by 2030 (City has already achieved the SB 32 minimum target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030) City of South Pasadena Climate Action Plan*
- SB 32 minimum target of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and progress toward carbon neutrality by 2045 City of Santa Monica Climate Action and Adaptation Plan* - 80% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030 (City was 36% below 1990 levels in 2019) City of Palo Alto Sustainability and Climate Action Plan (not CEQA qualified) - 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (City’s electricity portfolio is carbon neutral) City of Cupertino Climate Action Plan
- 49% reduction by 2035 and 83% by 2050 (includes carbon sequestration from urban forest program) Other Carbon Neutral by 2035: Fremont, Sunnyvale, Portola Valley, Menlo Park *CEQA Qualified Plan 1.106
Infrastructure Investment + Jobs Act
Funding + Implementation

1.107
January
- 1/18 City Council Study Session on CAP Goals
- 1/24 Consider.It community engagement
dialogue on CAP Actions to be released
- 1/24 - 1/28 More municipal + community
focus groups
February
- 1/31 - 2/4 CATF + Equity Task Force -
Implementation and Funding (date TBD)
- 2/7 CATF recruitment closes
- 2/10 CATF new members announced
- More small focus group engagement
(Business / developer engagement, bikers, etc)
March
- 3rd week of March City Council study Session
on Actions, Implementation + Funding 1.108