Route 10 Operational Analysis Findings
Santa Maria Regional Transit Zero Emission Bus Fleet Rollout Plan – Contract Amendment M arch 2024 | 1
Memorandum
Date: Wednesday, July 12, 2023
Project: Santa Maria Regional Transit Zero Emission Bus Fleet Rollout Plan – Contract Amendment
To: Gamaliel Anguiano, City of Santa Maria
From: Marie Lewis Adams, HDR
Subject: Route 10 Operational Analysis Findings
The San Luis Obispo Regional Transit Authority (RTA) currently operates bus service between Santa Maria and San Luis Obispo designated as Route 10. The City of Santa Maria historically contributes a portion of its FTA 5307 funds to RTA, to support operation of the route, outside of a formal agreement with RTA. The City of Santa Maria, in partnership with RTA, the Santa Barbara County Association of Governments (SBCAG), and the San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) , wishes to assess the potential benefits and costs of alternative operating arrangements for Route 10 to achieve attractive, cost-effective service along this section of the US 101 corridor. This memo summarizes the findings of the analysis conducted.
1 Travel Demand
1.1 Overall Travel Patterns
Travel demand between Santa Maria and Nipomo, the Five Cities, and San Luis Obispo was analyzed using Replica, a data platform that uses mobile location data to create a representative sample of daily origin and destination patterns . Data from Replica captured travel demand for all modes of transportation between January and June of 2022.
Shown in Figure 1, weekday trips originating in Santa Maria peak during commute times at 7:00AM and 3:00PM, with the highest number of trips made from Santa Maria to the Five Cities. Travel between the Five Cities and Santa Maria is bidirectional during the peak periods. In contrast, trips from Santa Maria to San Luis Obispo peak in the morning, with a corresponding afternoon return peak, whereas trips to Nipomo show the opposite pattern. Weekday trips ending in Santa Maria (Figure 3) were the highest from the Five Cities at 7:00AM and 3:00PM.
Travel demand on the weekends, shown in Figure 2 and Figure 4, presents a bell curve with the highest number of trips at midday. Overall, weekend travel was highest between Santa Maria and the Five Cities, followed by Nipomo and San Luis Obispo.
Attachment B
Route 10 Operational Analysis Findings
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Figure 4. Weekday northbound trips from Santa
Maria, all modes (January – June 2022)
Figure 3. Weekend northbound trips from Santa Maria,
all modes (January – June 2022)
Figure 1. Weekday southbound trips to Santa Maria,
all modes (January – June 2022)
Figure 2. Weekend southbound trips to Santa Maria,
all modes (January – June 2022)
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1.2 Route 10 Ridership Patterns
In fiscal year (FY) 2018/2019, prior to the Covid- 19 pandemic, annual ridership on the route totaled over 193,000. Ridership in FY 2021/2022 totaled over 112,000, representing a decrease of over 40 percent. Notably, monthly ridership showed an increasing trend during the early months of 2022. With pandemic restrictions easing and workers returning to the office, local and national trends suggest that ridership will likely continue to increase in the near future. It is unclear, however, if or when ridership will return to pre-pandemic levels.
Route 10’s regular (non-express) service pattern includes 22 stops in each direction. Three of those stops (Government Center, Pismo Beach Premium Outlets, Santa Maria Transit Center) generate over 50 percent of total route boardings and alightings. When combined with the fourth highest-ridership stop, Tefft & Carillo in Nipomo, those four stops together account for approximately two-thirds of total activity along the route.
Route 10 ridership by time of day was compared with Replica data to assess differences in travel patterns between those riding transit and overall, non-mode-specific travel. Total Route 10 boardings between January and June 2022 are shown in the figures below. Boardings reflect commute-oriented travel demands on the weekdays and midday -focused travel demands on the weekend. This distribution closely reflects overall demand patterns, except for weekday northbound boardings, which show relatively higher trips in the morning peak and fewer in the afternoon compared to overall travel demand on the corridor, as shown in Figure 5. This more closely reflects the demand pattern for trips to San Luis Obispo suggests that the route is particularly well-suited to long distance commuters to downtown San Luis Obispo.
Northbound boardings are highest for the 7:14AM departure on weekdays and the 12:14PM departure on weekends. Southbound boardings are highest for the 3:33PM departure on weekdays and the 1:33PM departure on weekends. Weekday boarding activity is stronger in the AM peak northbound and the PM peak southbound, suggesting more passengers are heading northbound for work using Route 10.
Before the pandemic, RTA operated express patterns that served Cal Poly San Luis Obispo and made fewer intermediate stops. In 2019, the Cal Poly Library ranked 19 th out of 30 stops by ridership, despite
only being served by two round trip express runs per day. On a per trip basis, it ranked 9 th. This suggests potential latent demand for additional trips to Cal Poly.
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Figure 5. Weekday northbound travel demand compared
to Route 10 boardings (January – June 2022)
Figure 6. Weekend northbound travel demand compared
to Route 10 boardings (January – June 2022)
Figure 7. Weekday southbound travel demand compared
to Route 10 boardings (January – June 2022)
Figure 8. Weekend southbound travel demand
compared to Route 10 boardings (January – June 2022)
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2 Comparison with Potential SMRT Operation
This section provides a theoretical comparison of differences if the city of Santa Maria, which manages contract-operated Santa Maria Regional Transit ( SMRT) service, were to operat e the route with no changes to its current service pattern. This comparison is provided for informational purposes only.
2.1 Operational Impacts of Zero-Emissions Technology
Route 10 currently operates at one-hour headways using three diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) buses operating up to five round trips per day with 31- minute layovers at the Santa Maria Transit Center. SMRT is in the process of transitioning from diesel ICE buses to battery electric buses (BEBs) to comply with the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Innovative Clean Transit rule. RTA will also transition to zero- emissions technology to comply with CARB regulations, but on a different timeline than SMRT. Route 10 was analyzed to determine what changes to the operating pattern, if any, would be needed to deliver the same service with BEBs. BEBs have shorter range capabilities than ICEs, which is an issue when operating a longer-distance route. BEB ranges will likely continue to increase in future as the technology progresses.
The estimated daily energy need per vehicle for five round trips on Route 10 is 836 kilowatt -hours (kWh), well above the end- of-life battery capacity of 281 kWh for SMRT’s BEBs (end-of-life battery storage reflects a conservative estimate of battery capacity). If a 300-kW charger were available during layovers at the Santa Maria Transit Center , charging for at least 28 minutes between trips could provide enough energy for this route to operate. Therefore, it would be feasible to operate the service with no increase in the number of buses required if the necessary charging infrastructure is available at the Transit Center. Currently, SMRT is in the early stages of studying the possibility of installing charging equipment at the Transit Center. While this analysis provides an estimate of the requirements to operate BEBs on Route 10, ICE vehicles or a combination of BEB and ICE vehicles may be utilized during the transition phase.
2.2 Deadhead Requirements
RTA currently operates Route 10 with buses stored overnight and services at its facility at 253 Elks Lane in San Luis Obispo, just over 2 miles from Government Center, the northern terminus of Route
10. SMRT’s bus facility is located at 1303 Fairway Drive in Santa Maria, approximately 4 miles from the Santa Maria Transit Center , the southern terminus of Route 10. However, existing operational patterns require RTA to deadhead multiple trips to and from Santa Maria. Under the current schedule, two of three buses must first deadhead to the Santa Maria Transit Center in the morning to start their runs, and all three must deadhead back to San Luis Obispo at the end of the day – over 30 miles each way. Since two of the three buses both begin and end revenue service in Santa Maria, deadhead miles could be substantially reduced if more vehicles started and ended their operation in Santa Maria.
2.3 Subsidy Comparison
Table 1 shows the estimated operating costs, fare revenue, and subsidy under existing RTA operation and potential SMRT operation, using information provided by RTA and SMRT . Operating costs per hour were derived from the 2021 National Transit Database. While average fares are slightly lower, Route 10 Operational Analysis Findings
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SMRT’s lower hourly operating cost results in a reduction in total subsidy by over $ 710,000 and a $6.33 reduction in operating subsidy per passenger. This comparison does not consider any cost implications of responsibility for associated paratransit service.
Table 1. Annual Subsidy Comparison by Operator
RTA Operation SMRT Operation Difference
Annual revenue hours* 9,907 0
Approximate annual ridership 113,000 0
Cost per hour $133.35 $58.34 -$75.01
Total annual cost $1,320,000 $580,000 -$740,000
Average Fare $1.79 $1.52 -$0.27
Total Fare Revenue $202,000 $171,000 -$31,000
Total Subsidy $1,120,000 $410,000 -$710,000
Subsidy per passenger $9.94 $3.61 -$6.33
*Assumes operation of August 2022 schedule over 255 weekdays, 52 Saturdays and 56 Sundays or holidays.
2.4 Start-Up Costs for BEB Operation
Route 10 requires three buses in daily service, and one additional spare bus will be required to maintain adequate spare ratio. To operate with only three buses using battery technology, installation of a charger at the Santa Maria Transit Center would also be required. Table 2 shows the estimated start-up costs associated with operation of Route 10 using BEBs, based on unit costs derived from the Santa Maria ZEB Feasibility Study completed in 2022. The total estimated start -up cost for either agency to operate Route 10 service with BEBs is approximately $4.6 million. Like the operating comparison above, this estimate does not consider any start -up costs associated with the potential need to operate paratransit service along the corridor.
Table 2. Estimated Start-Up Capital Costs
Item Unit Quantity Unit Cost Cost (2021$)
Battery Electric Buses Ea 4 $940,000 $3,760,000
Charger kW 300 $1,190 $357,000
Charger installation kW 300 $1,000 $300,000
Supporting infrastructure kW 300 $520 $156,000
Total $4,573,000
An important note is that the above Estimated Start-Up Costs are based on the most extreme, and least likely, hypothetical scenario of SMRT taking over the operations of Route 10. However, the start-up costs would be lower if operation of the Route 10 where shared between the two agencies, as illustrated by Shared Operation alternatives presented later in this report. 3 Route 10 Observations
Routing and Operations. The c urrent Route 10 route structure combines elements of local and express service. Notably, just four stops make up nearly two thirds of boardings. In addition, RT A operates an overlay express service during peak hours that makes fewer intermediate stops . The express service was suspended during the pandemic, and restoration was requested during the FY23 and FY24 SLOCOG unmet transit needs cycles. RTA has now restored one express round trip from Route 10 Operational Analysis Findings
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Santa Maria to Cal Poly . Scheduled travel times between Santa Maria and Government Center are approximately 15 minutes shorter, representing a 20 percent travel time savings while still serving nearly 70 percent of current riders (as of FY 2021/2022) with the six stops identified on the online schedule. Anecdotal information from Santa Maria riders and transit service providers suggests there is latent demand for more direct service between Santa Maria and San Luis Obispo.
Demand Patterns. As noted in Section 1.2 , boarding patterns show substantial ridership in the morning commute period northbound to San Luis Obispo, but the earliest arrival time in at Government Center is currently 7:28 AM. Demand for earlier weekday service was also identified in rider surveys for the 2017 Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo Transportation Connectivity Study. Providing earlier service would likely capture commuters with earlier start times. This represents a potential partnership opportunity with SMRT, since SMRT buses could begin service earlier without having to deadhead from San Luis Obispo.
In contrast to demonstrated ridership demand for commute trips to San Luis Obispo, there is significant travel demand between Santa Maria and the Five Cities and Nipomo that is not reflected to the same degree in Route 10 ridership. Better understanding of demand patterns between the Five Cities Area and Santa Maria could provide insight into potential opportunities for better first/last mile connectivity, particularly to/from the Pismo Beach Premium Outlets location. Given the close proximity of Nipomo to Santa Maria, express-type service may not provide convenient connections between these cities , and there may be an opportunity for a more local-type service if an appropriate interagency agreement could be developed.
Transfers. The Santa Maria Transit Center is the primary Route 10 boarding location in the City of Santa Maria, and also serves as a transfer hub for SMRT routes. However, current schedules do not allow convenient connections between Route 10 and SMRT routes. Route 10 buses are scheduled to arrive and depart consistently at the same time each hour, whereas most SMRT routes operate on a 45-minute headway, meaning that ideal connections are possible at most once every 3 hours. One SMRT route (Route 2) operates on a primarily hourly schedule but arrives 10 minutes after Route 10 departs the transit center and departs 13 minutes before Route 10 arrives. Assuming no changes to these basic schedules, differences in headways limit the ability to make consistent connections. There may be opportunities to modify RTA or SMRT schedules to provide timed transfers to or from Route 10 at select points in the day. Surveys of Route 10 riders could help pinpoint the SMRT routes that these riders most frequently connect to, and these routes could be prioritized for connections.
Fare Payment. As a regional route, transfers are an important way to extend the reach of service, and the 2017 Route 10 on-board survey found that nearly a quarter of riders made a transfer on their trip.
Riders going between both transit systems to reach their final destination must pay full fare on both systems and navigate using two fare payment applications or physical passes. An inter-agency fare agreement would help reduce cost burdens for disadvantaged riders and could promote ridership on both RTA and SMRT Routes. If SMRT were to assume or supplement even just part of the operation of Route 10, an inter -agency agreement would still be recommended to preserve transfers to RTA, SLO Transit, and SoCo Transit routes that are currently available with RTA passes. Use of common fare media or purchasing systems could also help improve convenience, such as a single app which could be used to purchase fares for multiple agencies.
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4 Findings and Recommendations
While the subsidy comparison indicates that SMRT could operate Route 10 more cost effectively than RTA, the majority of the route is in RTA’s service area, and there are key connections to SoCo Transit and SLO Transit for which RTA has existing transfer agreements. Operational savings for the route would need to be balanced against upfront capital costs and the need to assume complementary paratransit service (unless the route is classified as a commuter bus, per FTA guidelines). In particular, SMRT would need to expand its fleet, whereas RTA is already in possession of buses for existing operations. In the long term, either agency would incur costs related to transition to zero- emission buses, and charging infrastructure would be needed to support operations with BEBs. As the agencies transition, a BEB charging agreement should be considered to facilitate efficient BEB operations across the region.
The City of Santa Maria has been providing a portion of its FTA 5307 funds to RTA to support the operating costs of Route 10 since the mid-1990s, outside of a formal or defined method, and there is a need to consider the most efficient use of public funds. Given that the analysis conducted indicates that SMRT can provide service with lower operating cost, and there are other potential operating efficiencies of buses beginning in Santa Maria, it is recommended that the two agencies discuss ways to maximize limited funding resources to address rider needs.
Assuming RTA intends to continue operating Route 10 in its current configuration, there may be a partnership opportunity for SMRT to operate supplemental express overlay service. This would allow for service expansion using SMRT’s drivers and would support earlier service northbound without buses needing to deadhead from San Luis Obispo. There are a number of different ways this could be structured, and continued discussions would need to take place on fare payment, schedules, and transfers; any service arrangement should be delivered in a way prioritizes simplicity for riders. Per California Transportation Development Act regulations, any extension of service into a neighboring service area requires the approval of the affected transit district. This would apply to both SMRT extending into RTA’s service area as well as RTA’s extension into Santa Maria as part of Route 10.
As a regional route, connecting services are important for customers to make complete trips and will only become more important if operations are streamlined . With buses operating only once an hour, timed transfers at major hubs like the Santa Maria Transit Center are crucial to making convenient connections, but current SMRT and RTA schedules do not allow for timed transfers. Another factor complicating passenger transfers between operators is the need to pay a second fare, which adds cost and complexity. RTA already allows transfers to SLO Transit and SoCo Transit with its passes .
A similar agreement with SMRT would improve customer convenience for connections between Route 10 and SMRT’s local routes.