May 5, 2026
City of Santa MariaBallot Measure Polling Survey
Assess voters’ perceptions of and satisfaction with city services Gauge support for a potential November 2026 ballot measure Research purpose
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 2 Mixed-mode survey of N=400 likely November 2026 voters in Santa Maria Conducted March 18 – 26, 2026; 15 minutes to complete
Quotas and weighting were set by age, gender, race and ethnicity, language, income, housing status, party affiliation, vote history, and city council district to ensure a representative sample. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish.
Margin of error ±4.9%
Due to rounding, some totals may differ by ±1 from the sum of separate responses Methodology
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 3 Initial test
Re-test
Reasons to Oppose
Final test
Survey flow of ballot measure tests:
Information on Measure components
Reasons to Support
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 4 AGE
RACE / ETHNICITY
<$50k
$50k - <$100k
$100k+
INCOME
GENDER
3%
Asian
1%
Native American / American Indian
1%
Pacific Islander / Native Hawaiian
1%
Black / African / African American
1%
Other
EDUCATION
21%
High school or less
40%
Some college or
2-year degree
38%
4-year degree or more
Demographic breakdown of survey respondents
N=400 Likely November 2026 Santa Maria Voters
HOME OWNERSHIP
Own
Rent/
Other
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 5 LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE
Demographic breakdown of survey respondents
N=400 Likely November 2026 Santa Maria Voters
PARTY
VOTE HISTORY IN RECENT STATEWIDE ELECTIONS
Democrat
CITY COUNCIL DISTRICT
Republican
No party preference (NPP)
Other
19%
District 1
23%
District 2
35%
District 4
22%
District 3
Key takeaways
Santa Maria voters are divided on the city’s direction. Thirty-nine percent believe the city is headed in the right direction, while nearly the same amount (41%) say it is on the wrong track, with the rest unsure.
Housing affordability, crime, homelessness, and cost of living are most often identified as the top issue facing Santa Maria. While affordability is a clear concern to voters, there are few specific mentions of taxes as the most important issue.
Two-thirds of voters are satisfied with the city’s delivery of services. Satisfaction is generally high across demographic groups.
Most voters feel their financial situation is good and do not expect their personal finances to worsen.
General mood
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 7 The proposed measure earns majority support (60%) in an initial test. Support is greater among District 1 and 2 voters, voters ages 18-29, and those who are satisfied with the city’s job performance in delivering services.
While voters are initially skeptical of the city’s fiscal management of tax dollars and its need for additional funding, support for the measure increases as voters learn about what it would fund and the included fiscal controls (74%, up by 14 percentage points from the initial test).
Voters react positively to each proposed use of funds, reinforcing broad appeal rather than reliance on a single priority. Maintaining parks, expanding youth services, and other funding priorities are important to voters.
Voters are receptive to all reasons to support tested. Messages focused on tangible city services and accountability measures resonate most strongly. Given voters’ skepticism about the city’s ability to manage their tax dollars, messages about concrete service impacts and fiscal oversight are likely to be more persuasive than broader or more abstract arguments.
Although 7 in 10 voters find the opposition argument about economic and cost-of-living impacts convincing , it does not significantly erode support for the measure. Support remains majority (64%) by the end of the survey.
Messages & ballot tests
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 8 Santa Maria voters are more likely to support than oppose a sales tax measure to fund essential services in the city.
A majority of voters (52%) form a solid base of support, consistently backing the measure across all ballot tests. Voters in this segment are likely to be Democrats, reside in City Council District 1, and are more likely to be satisfied with the city’s job performance in delivering services.
Likely opposition (23%) is formed by voters who consistently said they would vote no or were consistently unsure how they would vote on the measure. Republicans, voters ages 45+, white voters, residents of District 4, and those dissatisfied with city performance over-index in this segment.
A quarter of voters (25%) are persuadable, meaning their support shifts as they receive more information. These voters skew older and are more likely to be infrequent voters (those have voted in no or one of four recent statewide elections), suggesting conditional or uncertainty-driven support rather than firm opposition. Message-framing rather than persuasion alone will be key to moving this group.
All messengers tested are trusted by a majority of voters. Firefighters, local small business owners, and police officers emerge as the most trusted messengers, earning high trust not only among base supporters, but also among persuadable voters and even likely opposition.
Voter segments & messengers
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 9 General mood
Housing affordability, crime, homelessness, and cost of living lead as top issues among Santa Maria voters. Few mention taxes.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 11 What do you think is the most important problem facing Santa Maria today? 20%
Housing affordability
16%
Crime
12%
Homelessness
10%
Cost of living
9%
Traffic/Accidents
8%
Economy/Jobs
8%
Poor government leadership / Government mismanagement
7%
Immigration
7%
Growth/Population
6%
Infrastructure/Roads/Transportation
6%
ICE Raids
…
…
2%
Taxes/Tariffs
Initial ballot test
In an initial test, before seeing any other information, most voters would vote yes on a potential measure to fund essential services in the city, with less than 1 in 3 voters opposed.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 13 Certain
Lean
To maintain/enhance essential services including library, recreation, homelessness, at-risk youth programs, providing durable fiscal stability; shall the measure be approved adopting an ordinance to enact a 1/2 cent (0.5¢) general transactions and use tax, sales tax, until ended by voters, providing $13,000,000 annually, with no funds taken by Sacramento, all funds used locally? If the election were today, would you vote YES to support this measure or NO to oppose it?
Messaging & ballot re-test
All proposed uses of funds make voters more likely to support the measure, with no single service or component clearly more influential than the others.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 15 Much / Somewhat more likely
Somewhat / Much less likely
Don’t know
Reasons to support
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 16 Shorthand
Full Message
Community spaces and connection
Our community members use parks for birthday celebrations, programs for seniors, youth activities, and more. We need to maintain these amenities that keep our community vibrant and give people a place to connect.
Mandatory financial audits to ensure accountability
This measure requires mandatory financial audits and yearly reports to ensure the funds are spent as promised.
Infrastructure and accessibility
This measure would improve local infrastructure by adding bike lanes, walking trails, sidewalks, and ADA-accessible curb ramps that make it easier for everyone to get around Santa Maria.
Youth programs reduce long-term costs
Libraries, parks, and recreation programs provide positive opportunities for youth and strengthen our community, reducing long-term public safety costs.
Local control over local funds for local needs
This measure will give Santa Maria local control over local funds for local needs. No funds can be taken by Sacramento.
Help continue important programs and core services
This measure will help the city continue important programs such as library hours, parks and recreation services, and cleaning up homeless encampments.
Small cost for a big return
This measure will generate $13 million annually for Santa Maria, but only cost 5-cents on a $10 purchase. This is a small price to pay to protect and improve critical services for our community.
Visitors pay their fair share
This measure ensures visitors to Santa Maria pay their fair share for the community services they use, so all the burden does not fall on our residents.
Growth requires revenue
The City has been fiscally responsible with existing taxpayer dollars, but population growth and other factors mean we need to increase revenues in order to maintain the same level of city services.
Voters find all reasons to support the measure compelling, especially messages focused on clear service impacts and financial oversight.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 17 Very/ Somewhat convincing
Not too / Not at all convincing
Don’t know
Support, specifically strong support, increases after voters learn about services the measure could fund and reasons to support it.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 18 Certain
Lean
Yes
No
Don’t know
+14
-9
-5
Now that you know more about the measure, please consider it again.
To maintain/enhance essential services including library, recreation, homelessness, at-risk youth programs, providing durable fiscal stability; shall the measure be approved adopting an ordinance to enact a 1/2 cent (0.5¢) general transactions and use tax, sales tax, until ended by voters, providing $13,000,000 annually, with no funds taken by Sacramento, all funds used locally? If the election were today, would you vote YES to support this measure or NO to oppose it?
Though 7 in 10 voters find the opposition argument convincing, it does not have a significant impact on voters’ ultimate support for the measure.
DHM Research | City of Santa Maria Ballot Measure Polling Survey | March 2026 19 Certain
Lean
Yes
No
-10
+8
Opponents of this measure say it will drive shoppers and businesses out of Santa Maria, hurting the local economy. We already have Measure U to fund public safety, so the City needs to put the funds it already has to better use before asking residents to pay more. Families in our community simply cannot afford more taxes when many are already struggling with the high cost of living.
How convincing is this as a reason to oppose the measure? Now that you’ve heard more about the measure, please consider it again... If the election were today, would you vote YES to support this measure or NO to oppose it?