Santa Monica
Parcel Tax
Survey
Conducted by Goodwin Simon
Strategic Research
October 2025
Presentation of Findings
Methodology
• Goodwin Simon Strategic Research completed 499 interviews with registered voters in Santa Monica between October 8 and 16, 2025. Fielding was conducted online via text invitations (46%) and by cell phones (53%) and landlines (1%).
• The sample was drawn from a list of Santa Monica voters who are likely to participate in a 2026 election based on past vote history.
• The survey was fielded in both English and Spanish.
• The margin of error for the full results is +/- 4.34% at a 95% confidence level. That is, if this survey were to be repeated exactly as it was originally conducted, then 95 out of 100 times the responses from the sample (expressed as proportions) would be within 4.34% of the actual population proportions. • The margin of error for questions about the flat tax option (N=252) and about the per square foot option (N = 247) is +/- 6.16%.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 2
Overview/Recommendations
• A majority in the mid-50s supports either version of a parcel tax after respondents learn how the funds might be used by the City and the SMMUSD – and learn that the funds will not be used by the state or federal governments. • However, initial support for a tax (i.e. based only on the 75-word ballot title and summary we tested for each version) is only in the mid-40s, a level that does not appear to be sufficient to pass a measure at the two-thirds level required for a city tax measure.
• If the city is interested in placing a measure of this kind on the ballot, we recommend identifying a lower amount to put before voters and a process of community outreach/education and additional voter research. • If a measure does proceed, we recommend 75-word ballot language that offers examples of how the funds could be used that are focused on voters’ highest priorities, specifically firefighters, homelessness, 911 services, and hiring/retaining teachers. Ideally the ballot language would also make clear that the funds can only be used in Santa Monica for essential city services and public education. An example is offered on the next slide. • Relatively few voters are aware of the Master Facilities Joint Use Agreement (MFJUA) with SMMUSD. Moreover, while most voters recognize that the District has need of funding, the community programs and services resulting from the MFJUA are not among the highest priorities for most voters.
• Still, the poll makes clear that voters are very supportive of the City and the District partnering to improve the services they provide to residents.
• The flat tax earns majority support from homeowners in the poll after they learn more about how the revenue will be used. In contrast the square footage tax still trails by 15 points among homeowners after more information.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 3
City approval ratings
steady since 2022
SMMUSD May 2019 Jan 2022 June 2024 October 2025
Positive 55% 48% 58% 58%
Negative 19% 27% 22% 15%
City May 2022 May 2024 October 2025
Positive 55% 59% 54%
Negative 40% 36% 41%
Approval ratings for the City are similar to what we found in 2022 and 2024.
While positive job ratings for the SMMUSD and the City are roughly similar, negative ratings continue to be higher for the city (41%) compared to the District (15%).
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 4
Limited awareness of
the Master Facilities
Joint Use Agreement
(MFJUA) with SMMUSD
• Only 36% of voters are aware of the agreement, with
homeowners and parents much more aware of it than
renters and non-parents
• Supporters of a tax tend to be less aware of the
agreement than tax opponents
MFJUA
Awareness All Owners Renters Parents Not Parents Voting Yes Voting No Yes 36% 46% 27% 60% 28% 33% 41%
No 59% 47% 68% 33% 67% 62% 52%
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 5
A majority of voters
(58%) recognize at least
some need for MFJUA
funding to help schools
Two in three voters who say
they are aware of the
agreement believe the public
schools need this funding,
compared to 53% of those
not aware of the funding.
About 71% of Yes voters say
there is a need for the funding
compared to 49% of the No
voters.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 6
Great need,
27%
Some need,
31%
Little/no need,
21%
Not sure, 21%
58%
Response to
proposed uses of
the tax revenue
For voters, the most important
uses of the funds include three city
services (homeless, firefighters,
911), plus “hiring and retaining
qualified teachers.”
This is especially the case for ”Yes
1x” voters, who are mostly those
who switched from No or Not sure
initially to Yes after hearing more
about the measures, and the
initially undecided voters.
Note that the MFJUA funding was
the least important use of the
revenue for voters of the items we
tested.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 7
Ext. imp All
Voting
Yes
Voting
No
Not
sure Yes 2x Yes 1x Yes 0x
Homeless 56% 71% 38% 65% 73% 59% 37%
Firefighters 51% 59% 38% 64% 61% 56% 39%
Teachers 50% 71% 28% 51% 72% 51% 27%
911 48% 52% 40% 58% 53% 49% 42%
Preschool 42% 59% 23% 47% 60% 52% 19%
Arts/music 41% 55% 23% 46% 57% 47% 21%
Parks 40% 49% 28% 46% 50% 40% 29%
Libraries 39% 52% 24% 40% 54% 41% 22%
Streets 39% 42% 34% 44% 43% 43% 33%
MFJUA 34% 43% 22% 41% 45% 39% 21%
Voted yes both
times (2x)
when asked
about a tax
Voted yes once
but not twice
(1x) when
asked about a
tax
Voted yes 0
times (0x)
when asked
about a tax
Most influential
endorsers: Firefighters,
Teachers, Library
advocates
The relative importance of firefighters and teachers as influencers is especially important with undecided and
swing (Yes 1x) voters.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 8
More inclined to support tax if endorsed by:
All Owners Renters Yes voters No voters Not sure Yes 2x Yes 1x Yes 0x Firefighters 53% 47% 58% 68% 34% 60% 71% 66% 28%
Teachers 49% 45% 54% 75% 21% 53% 78% 60% 15%
Friends of SMPL 43% 34% 51% 65% 20% 39% 68% 44% 16%
SMRR 37% 22% 51% 53% 20% 37% 55% 47% 13%
LWV 35% 31% 38% 52% 17% 36% 55% 43% 11%
CEPS 34% 30% 38% 52% 12% 42% 54% 47% 7%
SM FSS 34% 32% 37% 49% 19% 33% 49% 41% 15%
PTA 32% 29% 36% 50% 13% 36% 52% 42% 8%
SM Forward 16% 16% 16% 25% 5% 20% 26% 24% 2%
Voted yes both
times (2x)
when asked
about a tax
Voted yes once
but not twice
(1x) when
asked about a
tax
Voted yes 0
times (0x)
when asked
about a tax
Comparing the flat and
square foot versions of
the parcel tax: initial
reaction
• Overall, the 45% support for a $540 flat parcel tax is not significantly different from the 42% support for the $0.08/square foot tax. • We find a notable variance in preference among self-identified homeowners, with 43% who support a flat tax and just 29% who would vote yes on a square footage tax.
• As is typically the case, we see renters, Democrats, younger voters, and parents most inclined to vote for either tax option.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 9
All Dems GOP Ind Owners Renters 18-39 49-64 65+ Parents Not
Parents
Flat yes 45% 52% 15% 41% 43% 47% 53% 39% 46% 58% 41%
Sq. ft.
yes
42% 52% 11% 33% 29% 53% 47% 38% 45% 40% 44%
Net flat
yes
3% 0% 4% 8% 14% -6% 6% 1% 1% 18% -3%
Flat no 40% 31% 72% 52% 43% 38% 27% 46% 42% 33% 42%
Sq. ft.
no
43% 32% 77% 55% 57% 32% 34% 49% 43% 41% 43%
Net flat
no -3% -1% -5% -3% -14% 6% -7% -3% -1% -8% -1%
$540
flat
$0.08/
sq. ft
Yes 45% 42%
No 40% 43%
Net yes 5% -1%
Not
sure
15% 14%
Reasons to support
the tax (open-end
responses)
The most frequent reasons
mentioned were
• To help public schools,
mentioned by 33% of yes
voters
• To help fund city services,
mentioned by 29% of yes
voters
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 10
Support rises to 55%-59% after voters learn more
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 11
45%
40%
15%
59%
33%
8%
Yes No Not sure
Flat tax
Unaided Aided
42% 43%
14%
55%
37%
8%
Yes No Not sure
Square Foot tax
Unaided Aided
The flat tax option seems to
generate more support and
less opposition from
homeowners compared to
the square footage option
After homeowners learn more about the flat tax, their
support for it rises to 54% with 42% opposed, compared to just 39% in favor and 54% opposed for the square footage option. Renter support for the flat tax version rises to 66% with 23% opposed.
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 12
All Owners Renters
Flat Unaided: Yes 45% 43% 47%
Unaided: No 40% 43% 38%
Unaided: Net yes 5% 0% 9%
Aided: Yes 59% 54% 66%
Aided: No 33% 42% 23%
Aided: Net yes 27% 12% 43%
Sq. Ft. Unaided: Yes 42% 29% 53%
Unaided: No 43% 57% 32%
Unaided: Net yes -1% -28% 21%
Aided: Yes 55% 39% 69%
Aided: No 38% 54% 23%
Aided: Net yes 17% -16% 46%
Movement
• Roughly 65% of initially undecided voters shifted to yes, and about 15% of no voters shifted to yes.
• The biggest movement of opinion was seen among:
• Renters
• Parents
• Voters under 39 (and especially renters under 40)
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 13
What information is
most important to
voters who move to a
yes vote?
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 14
There were two statements that are
most important for voters who move
from being initially undecided about or
opposed to a tax measure to supporting
it:
“The funds generated by the measure
will be spent entirely in Santa Monica
and none of it can be taken by the state
or federal government” and
“The funds generated by this measure
will protect local public schools if the
state or federal government cuts funding
for California schools.”
Proposed
Ballot
Language
(Flat tax
version)
PRESERVING SANTA MONICA SERVICES AND
PUBLIC EDUCATION
To maintain funding for homelessness,
firefighters, 911 emergency services, and libraries,
while preserving city funding for Santa Monica’s
public schools to retain quality teachers and
improve education quality, shall the measure
approving a tax of $540 per parcel, generating
approximately $12,000,000 annually until
repealed by voters, exempting seniors, be
adopted, with funds that cannot be taken by the
state or federal governments and can only be used
in Santa Monica, be adopted?
Goodwin Simon Strategic Research 15