City Council
Report
City Council Meeting: October 27, 2026
Agenda Item: 11.B
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To: Mayor and City Council
From: Matthew Hallock, Fire Chief, Fire Department
Subject: Adoption of Resolution Proclaiming a Local Emergency for the 2026-2027 El Niño Winter Season
Recommended Action
Staff recommends that the City Council:
1. Adopt a finding of no possibility of significant effect pursuant to Section 15061(b)(3) (Common Sense Exemption) of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines; and
2. Adopt the proposed resolution of the City Council of the City of Santa Monica Proclaiming the Existence of a Local Emergency for the 2026-2027 El Niño Winter Season.
Summary
Earlier this year, meteorologists and weather experts began noticing a warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean that correlates with a stronger-than-normal El Niño event.
Throughout the year, this warming has only increased and the meteorologists and weather experts have indicated that there is a near certainty of a Super El Niño event occurring for the 2026-2027 winter season. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is an oceanic phenomenon. The agency believes that there is uncertainty in the atmospheric response to current El Niño conditions. However, experts forecast this season’s El Niño to be one of the strongest on record, possibly exceeding El Niño conditions that prompted eight major storm events in 1982-1983 that caused significant damage, destroying the lower deck of the Santa Monica Pier and with it, large cranes and vehicles. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns in the United States and 2 of 6
globally. Potential impacts to Santa Monica include heavy rains, flooding, beach erosion, downed trees, landslides, infrastructure damage, and other disruptions.
Staff recommends the adoption of the attached proposed resolution proclaiming the existence of a local emergency for the 2026-2027 El Niño winter season. This proclamation will expedite and streamline the City’s response to the potential storms.
Discussion
On June 2, 2026, the World Meteorological Organization declared the start of the 2026- 2027 El Niño and estimated an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge over the summer. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an advisory on October 8, 2026, stating that El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027, over 83% chance. On October 15, 2026, the NOAA released its 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook which shows how a very strong El Niño could impact the nation’s winter weather. Wetter than average conditions are likely across the southern U.S., from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard.
With El Niño conditions already presenting at historic levels and continuing to strengthen, on September 21, 2026, California Governor Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency in anticipation of the historic El Niño storm season. This action mobilizes state resources ahead of the potential winter storms and other impacts, and directs state agencies to begin protecting vulnerable communities, prepare roads and critical infrastructure, stage emergency supplies, and assist local partners with reducing flood, landslide, and coastal risks.
Santa Monica’s hazard profile is covered extensively in the City’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP), which details the City’s vulnerabilities to extreme weather events, landslides, flooding and other natural disasters. The Plan details areas within the City most prone to coastal flooding as well as storm flooding. According to the LHMP, there are 85 beach-front properties located within a 100-Year Flood Zone, meaning that any year the property has a 1% chance of flooding in storm events. Urban flooding may occur in other areas throughout the city if intense rainfall overwhelms drainage infrastructure. This type of flooding is more likely to occur when a Flash Flood Warning is issued.
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On September 23, 2026, Los Angeles County proclaimed a local emergency for the anticipated arrival of El Niño conditions. This proclamation is intended to strengthen coordination among county departments and state partners, inspect and maintain flood-control infrastructure, prepare sandbag distribution sites, and assist with public outreach and other emergency preparations.
Recent events have already shown the impacts of El Niño – warming ocean waters by 3-4 degrees Celsius, raising sea levels about a foot higher than normal and increasing the amount of hurricane activity in the Pacific Ocean, resulting in higher wave heights and frequent storm surges. Beach cities such as Newport Beach, Long Beach, and Huntington Beach have already experienced an above normal number of “King” tides related to warm ocean water, in addition to significant beach erosion, flooding, and structural damage (nearby homes, businesses, pier, boardwalk). In fact, while Santa Monica’s inaugural Ocean Way Festival was canceled due to significant beach erosion caused by Hurricane Marie, this seems merely a prelude to the coming El Niño-fueled winter storms.
A very strong El Niño is expected to have the following potential impacts to the City:
• Increased potential for repeated heavy-rain events and saturated ground • Rapid urban flooding where drainage capacity is exceeded • Coastal wave action, beach erosion, and potential high-surf impacts • Falling trees, downed power lines, traffic disruption, and outages • Slope instability and debris movement, especially near steep terrain and neighboring burn-affected areas
• Bluff erosion with mud and debris falling on to Pacific Coast Highway City departments traditionally have the following roles and responsibilities during a storm response. These roles are regularly tested during drills and exercises and during coordination in smaller storm events.
Department Roles & Responsibilities
Emergency Management Cross-departmental Planning and
Coordination (including management of
multiple working groups); Coordination
with local/state/federal partners; EOC
Coordination/Management; Weather
event monitoring; Alert and warning;
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Public and stakeholder education
Fire Incident Response (traffic collisions,
flooding, water rescues, downed
trees/power lines); Community sandbag
distribution
Police Incident Response; Traffic Control/Traffic
Management
Public Works Beach Maintenance/Monitoring; Facility
Management/Maintenance;
Clearing/Monitoring Storm Drains/Catch
Basins; Downed Tree Response; Debris
Removal; Road Repairs; Bluff stability
monitoring; Sandbag Management
Community Development Property damage/safety assessments Communications Public Messaging (website, social media, news, etc.)
Human Services Outreach w/Vulnerable Populations;
Shelter Referrals
Preparations are already underway in the City to mitigate those impacts to our residents and community. Staff across all departments are engaged in identifying life safety risks, strengthening critical systems, and formalizing a continuity of operations during an emergency response to an El Niño event. Staff is also engaging residents, visitors, businesses, hotels, schools, and major employers for storm preparedness, pre-storm advisories, alerts and updates during the storms, and recovery after the storms. These actions build upon the City’s annual winter storm preparedness measures. City department preparedness and mitigation efforts include the following:
• Public Works construction of sand berms to reduce sand erosion on the beach and along storm drain outflows
• Public Works inspections and repairs on city facility roofs, gutters, and drains to prevent leaks and flooding
• Public Works cleaning of over 600 catch basins
• Fire Department purchase of additional sandbags for distribution at Fire Stations • Preparing “Storm Event” website with pre-storm and response information in five languages. Website will be promoted in all major storm event SMAlerts for improved community language access.
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• During storm events, temporarily relaxing criteria for persons experiencing homelessness to access shelter, allowing both first responders and outreach teams to refer people to shelter, regardless of their history of homelessness in the City.
The public has an important role today in mitigating potential storm impacts, especially to protect their property. Residents and businesses are encouraged to take the following steps to prepare for winter storms:
• Know your property’s flooding risk by checking FEMA flood maps or Cal OES’s My Hazards website
• If you experience flooding or ponding near your property, prepare sandbags. Ten empty sandbags are available at every Santa Monica fire station. A sandbag filling station is available in Clover Park’s parking lot • Use sunny days to prepare your property. Clear gutters, downspouts, storm drains and bioswales of leaves and other debris.
• Inspect and repair roofs, doorways and windows to prevent leaks • Sign up for Santa Monica’s mass notification system, SMAlerts, to receive multi-lingual weather warnings All of this information and more can be found on the City’s Extreme Weather and Emergency Preparedness webpages.
The proposed resolution supports the ability for the City to rapidly identify, procure, stage, preposition, and deploy equipment, supplies, services, and other resources throughout the City.
Environmental Review
Based on the record above, it can be seen with certainty that the Resolution Proclaiming the Existence of a Local Emergency for the 2026-27 El Niño winter season, which allows the City to prepare and respond to the forecasted severity of this year’s El Niño event through various means, including, but not limited to, streamlined procurement, will have no effect on the environment, and therefore, is categorically exempt from CEQA pursuant to Section 15061(b)(3) (Common Sense Exemption) of the CEQA Guidelines.
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Financial Impacts and Budget Actions
There is no immediate financial impact or budget action necessary as a result of the recommended action. Staff will return to Council if specific budget actions are required in the future.
Prepared By: Jonathan Tang, Administrative Services Officer Approved Forwarded to Council
Attachments:
A. RESO- Proclaiming Local Emergency (El Nino storms)