Climate-Safe California:
accelerating climate action
[email protected]
www.theclimatecenter.org
Climate Action Subcommittee, City of Santa Rosa
Jan 12, 2022
Barry Vesser
Update on COP 26
Glasgow Climate Summit
www.theclimatecenter.org
Good news:
• Agreements to cut m ethane & stop
deforestation by 2030
• First-ev er reference to phase down of coal
& fossil fuels subsidies;
• Beyond Oil & Gas Alliance (BOGA)
D
enmark & Costa Rica;
• Increase f inancial commitments to
developing countries (BUT still haven’t
delivered on Paris agreement commitments)
Bad news:
• Not enough
• Kicked the can down the road for urgently
needed
reduction targets
• Current commitments would mean up to ~3C
w
ith devastating consequences, especially for
frontline communities around the world
“I don’t at all feel that we [in
California] are leading the world
anymore.”
– Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, COP26, Glasgow
https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2021/11/california-climate-change-newsom/
At 1.1-1.2C now
Without change we are on track for
catastrophic climate chaos…
• Sognnaes e t al (Nature Climate Change,
Nov 22, 2021):
• All pledges put together still
r
esult in 2.2 to 2.9 C of
warming
• High end to 3.8°C including
uncertainty in climate response
• Climate Action Tracker (Nov 9, 2021):
• On track for 2.4 C warming
• UNEP (Oct 27, 2021)
• Updated pledges on track for
2. 7 C warming
• https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-pledges-still-not-enough-to-keep-warming-below-2-degree-limit/ • https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01206-3.epdf • https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/ • https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021 The Need for Speed, Methane Pavilion, COP26:
Profession Tim Lenton, Univ of Exeter & Pam
Pearson, Intl Cryosphere Initiative
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoUcjGbSifM
Non-linear difference between
1.5C and 2C warming
https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/whats-difference-between-15c-2c-global-warming-2021-11-07/ https://ieep.eu/news/more-than-half-of-all-co2-emissions-since-1751-emitted-in-the-last-30-years https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092021/global-warming-james-hansen-aerosols/ "For every increment
of global warming,
changes in extremes
become larger"
“Warming will likely
double over next two
decades …"
“Warming has doubled
since first COP"
Current global climate goals are inadequate
UN IPCC 1.5C Report- Oct 2018
• Cut emissions by 45% by 2030
AN
D
• remove up to 1000 Gt CO2e from
at
mosphere
to achieve net-zero emissions by
2050 and stay under 1.5C warming
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 /
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/summary-for-policy-makers/ UN operates by consensus, so goals are
conservative and not enough.
Current COP26 pledges put together still result in 2.2
to 2.9 C of “catastrophic” warming
Will pass 1.5°C dangerous warming by 2030
in California it could be as early as 2027
Xu, Y., et al, Global Warming will Happen Faster than We Think, Nature Dec 2018, 564(7734):30-32 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-018-07586-5
MoveCA Zoomposium, Jan 21 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3IOX5ru0BI&t=12s (at 16 min in) Hébert, R. et al. Climate Dynamics, 2020; DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05521-x CA impacts: personal communication with V. Ramanathan, Scripps/UC San Diego
“Code red for humanity….
This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet.”
-UN Secretary General António Guterres, Aug 9, 2021,
re: United Nation IPCCC 6th Assessment Report
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/un-sounds-clarion-call-over-irreversible-climate-impacts-by-humans-2021-08-09/ Global climate models do not include regional extreme
events we are now experiencing
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/02/canadian-inferno-northern-heat-exceeds-worst-case-climate-models https://grist.org/science/is-climate-change-happening-faster-than-expected-a-climate-scientist-explains/ “No temperature rise is safe”…rapidly warming
climate is the "greatest threat" to global public health - 220+ medical journal simultaneous editorial Sept. 7, 2021 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01915-2/fulltext https://www.npr.org/2021/09/07/1034670549/climate-change-is-the-greatest-threat-to-public-health-top-medical-journals-warn Lenton, Rockstrom, Gaffney, Rahmstorf,
Richardson, Steffen, Schyellnhuber.
Nature, Nov 27, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-
019-03595-0
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20
19/11/191127161418.htm
9 of 15 global
tipping points
underway now…
domino effect to
uninhabitable
‘hothouse’
climate if we
don’t act soon…
“We have
underestimated the risks
of unleashing
irreversible changes
…We are seeing strong
evidence already for
declaring a state of
planetary emergency…
The next decade is our
window…with
consequences for all
future generations.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/1911
27161418.htm
https://sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/1425542
https://medium.com/@rchrdhy/johan-rockstr%C3%B6ms-
10-point-agenda-for-saving-the-world-unofficial-
transcript-431261f885c6
- Johan Rockström, Director,
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impacts Research, 2019
Climate action delay costs trillions,
bankrupting our economy
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20201109.pdf https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/climate/climate-change-financial-markets.html Wang, D et al. Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018. Nature Sustainability, 2020 DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-00646-7 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/california-wildfires-will-cost-tens-of-billions-accuweather-estimates/612548 Political Economy Research Institute https://www.peri.umass.edu/images/CA-EconRecProgram-6-12-20_Final.pdf World Resources Institute https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/07/economic-benefits-climate-action-us • Costs much less investing big
t
oday rather than waiting until
2030 (For CA: est. $47 billion/year now vs. $110
billion/year starting in 2030 based on CA =14.6% of GDP) • $150 billion in damages from
2018
CA wildfires
• But $80 bi llion invested in
California generate ~725,000 jobs
• ~$12-20 bi
llion/year needed in CA
https://energyinnovation.org/wp-
content/uploads/2021/01/Cost_of_Delay.pdf
The nation and the world
are looking to California
to lead for a
climate-safe future
Need more aggressive, equitable policies
& accelerated timelines in CA now!
Climate-Safe California
Campaign for Rapid Decarbonization
www.theclimatecenter.org
GOAL: By 2025, CA will have enacted the bold
policies required by science to dramatically cut
emissions, start drawdown and secure resilient
communities for all by 2030, inspiring global
action
CLIMATE-SAFE CALIFORNIA
accelerate existing state goals 15 years…
2045 is too late
• Net-negat ive emissions by 2030 (drawdown greater than emissions) (Brown 2018 EO by 2045)
• 80% below 1990 GHG levels by 2030 (Schwarzenegger 2005 EO by 2050)
• Nature-ba sed annual sequestration greater than
emissions by 2030
Definition: net negative emissions is achieved when, as a result of human activities, moregreenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere than are emitted into it. – UN IPCC 1.5C Report https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/glossary/
1. Accelerate the phase-o ut of fossil fuel
development, production and use
2. Scale-u p nature -based sequestration to 100
MMT/year by 2030 on natural & working lands
3. Invest in community resilience, including
c
lean energy microgrids & storage
4. Fund climate action with $12-2 0 billion/year
and leverage private sector money
TYPES OF POLICIES REQUIRED BY
SCIENCE TO REACH
CARBON NEGATIVE BY 2030
www.climatesafeca.org
Guiding principles for Climate-Safe CA
targets, policies and programs
1- Based on the latest science
2- Ensure a just transition for fossil fuel workers and impacted communities
3- Prioritize climate justice and ensure lower-
income/BIPOC communities are no longer
disproportionately harmed by fossil fuels & equal access to climate solutions
Zabin et al Sept 2020 https://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/putting-california-on-the-high-road-a-jobs-and-climate- action-plan-for-2030/
Backed up by science:
“Accelerating the Timeline for Climate
Action in California”
Kammen et al Mar 2021
Sept 9 2021
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdf/curren
t/current_ca_trd.pdf
https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.07801
Secured extensive media covering including in
the LA Times: An Earth Day message for
California: Move faster on climate change.
One pathway to 80% by 2030: by sector
https://theclimatecenter.org/our-open-source-pathways-model-offers-climate-action-blueprint/ https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.07801
SB 582 (Stern):Climate Emergency Mitigation,
Safe Restoration, and
Just Resilience Act of 2021
Would establish:
• state’s first-ever statutory
net-negative emissions goal,
with a target date of 2035
• 80% below 1990 levels by
2030
• Just Resilience Plan to drive
urgently needed investments
in California’s most
vulnerable communities
• Establish “carbon
r
emoval” goal before 2035
But Governor Newsom heard us:
ordered Air Resources Board to evaluate
pathways to carbon neutral by 2035, 10 years
ahead of current law!
July 9, 2021
Also asked CPUC to establish a more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions target for electricity procurement by 2030
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2021/07/09/governor-newsom-holds-virtual-discussion-with-leading-climate- scientists-on-states-progress-toward-carbon-neutrality/ Creates a new CEC
program to support local
governments in vulnerable
communities to plan
local
energy systems and
microgrids for
decarbonization,
resilience, equity
SB 833 (Dodd): Plan and prioritize
Clean Energy Resilience for communities that
suffer most from air pollution and outages
Secured $200m from CPUC for microgrids
in most vulnerable communities
Microgrid Equity Coalition convened by The Climate Center
Scale up mobile power storage
CA’s school bus fleet = 24,200
If all-electric, could store ~¼ of peak electricity
usage & help clean the air
150 kW battery packs per bus; 24,200 times150 kW= 3600 MW, i.e. about ¼ of the evening duck curve ramp Dramatically Increase Sequestration
• Sequester addl. 100+ MMT CO2e
annually
in healthy soils, forests and
vegetation by 2030
• Carbon farming and gar dening
• Compost, rotational grazing, agroforestry
• Climate-smart habitat restoration and
m
anagement on land/coast
• Enhance protected habitats
Point Blue STRAW project
Carbon Farming, Marin
Kelp forests
https://www.marincarbonproject.org/carbon-farming
https://www.carboncycle.org/carbon-farming/
https://www.pointblue.org/our-work/restoration/
SB 27 (Skinner) signed into law
Requires state to set natural & working lands sequestration goals for 2030 and beyond
CHALLENGE: Bold, Equitable Climate Legislation
Stymied in Sacramento
https://theclimatecenter.org/our-work/legislation/
https://capitalandmain.com/california-oil-industry-continues-to-thwart-climate-related-bills Over 1493 endorsements of
Climate-Safe California including:
• ELECTEDS and APPOINTED (89)
• Congressmen Jared Huffman, Mike
T
hompson
• State Senators Henry Stern, Mike McGuire,
S
cott Wiener, Josh Becker
• State A ssemblymember Ash Kalra, Robert
Rivas, Jim Wood, and Kevin Mullin
• Petaluma, Windsor, Sebastopol, Cotati
• County of Sonoma, RCPA
• ACADEMICS and ECONOMISTS
• Dan Kammen, PhD, UC Berkeley*
• Hunter L ovins
• Ben S anter , PhD, Lawrence Livermore Labs
• Carl Mears, PhD, UN IPCC
• Steve Weissman, PhD, UC Berkeley*
*affiliations for identification purposes only
• BUSINESS (118)
• Enphase Energy
• Guayaki
• Terry Tamminen, Seventh Generation
Ad
visors*
• Ygrene E nergy Fund
• Simpliphi P ower
• Traditional M edicinals
• NGOs (151)
• California League of Conservation Voters
• Center for Sustainable Energy
• Local Government Commission
• Environment California
• Clean Coalition
• Climate Mobilization
Endorse Climate-Safe California today!
www.climatesafeca.org
89 elected/governments, 118 businesses, 151organizations, 1,000+ individuals = 1493