Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
The Economics of Land Use
1330 Broadway, Suite 450 Oakland, CA 94612
510.841.9190 www.epsys.com
ECONOMIC & FISCAL
IMPACTS OF
DOWNTOWN HOUSING
City of Santa Rosa
Prepared by
Economic & Planning Systems
September 2023
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 1
STUDY OVERVIEW
This economic and fiscal impact analysis provides the City of Santa Rosa (City) with a quantitative assessment of potential benefits from infill housing development downtown.
EPS collaborated with City staff and business stakeholders to understand housing development plans, analyze anticipated economic and fiscal impacts, and to identify potential “catalytic” economic impacts. The findings of the Study cover:
Fiscal impacts of new housing on the Santa Rosa General Fund Economic benefi
ts from resident spending and residential operations
Potential citywide job growth and economic activity from business expans
ion enabled by new housing downtown
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KEY FINDINGS
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Economic & Planning Systems EPS PPT Presentation | 3
FISCAL IMPACT ON THE GENERAL FUND
Market rate apartments
generate a net annual
fiscal benefit to the
City’s General Fund,
with 1-bedroom units
yielding the most net
revenue.
Except for studio units,
below-market-rate
apartments yield a net
annual fiscal cost for
the General Fund.
Table 1: Annual Fiscal Impact of a Single Market-Rate Housing Unit (2023$) GF Item Studio 1-Bed 2-Bed
GF Revenue $972 $1,520 $1,673
GF Expense ($740) ($1,108) ($1,477)
Net Impact $233 $412 $197
Table 2: Annual Fiscal Impact of a Single Below-Market-Rate Unit (2023$) GF Item Studio 1-Bed 2-Bed
GF Revenue $788 $891 $1,214
GF Expense ($740) ($1,108) ($2,214)
Net Impact $48 ($217) ($1,000)
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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF HOUSING
Construction activity in the City of Santa Rosa supports the creation of one-time local economic benefits. Property management generates sustained economic activity.
Table 3: One-Time Economic Impact from Construction of a Single Unit (2023$) Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 2.82 $256,051 $445,575
Indirect / Induced 1.37 $89,229 $255,405
Total Impact 4.22 $345,280 $700,980
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
Table 4: Annual Economic Impacts of Property Management of a Single Unit (2023$) Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 0.01 $1,071 $4,964
Indirect / Induced 0.01 $625 $1,011
Total Impact 0.02 $1,697 $6,767
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
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ECONOMIC IMPACT OF RESIDENT SPENDING
New households spend in the local economy, which supports added local employment and income. The impact varies by household size and income.
Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 0.03-0.05 $1.5K-$2.4K $3.6K-$6.0K
Indirect / Induced 0.00-0.00 $197-$323 $531-$872
Total Impact 0.03-0.05 $1.7K-$2.8K $4.2K-$6.9K
Table 5: Economic Impact of Resident Spending from a Single Market-Rate Unit (2023$) Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 0.02-0.03 $1.2K-$1.5K $2.9K-$3.8K
Indirect / Induced 0.00-0.00 $156-$203 $420-$547
Total Impact 0.02-0.03 $1.3K-$1.7K $3.3K-$4.3K
Table 6: Economic Impact of Resident Spending from a Single Below-Market-Rate Unit (2023$) Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
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HYPOTHETICAL BUILDOUT OF 3,500 UNITS
The Downtown Santa Rosa Specific Plan
(DSASP) envisions the development of
7,000 new residential units within the
designated Planning Area.
The EPS analysis provides an illustrative
example of fiscal and economic impacts
based on a scenario where half of the units
contemplated by the Plan are constructed.
The EPS scenario assumes:
40% studio units
40%
one-bedroom unit s
20% two-bedroom unit s
The unit mix is based on development
projects planned for Downtown. The
buildout analysis accounts for inclusionary
units with 8% of the units designated for
below-market-rate households (Municipal
Code 21-02.050).
112 112 56
280
1,288 1,288
644
3,220
0 500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Studio 1-Bed 2-Bed Total
Below-Market-Rate Market-Rate
1,400 1,400
700
3,500
Figure 1: Illustrative Example Unit Mix
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FISCAL IMPACT FROM BUILDOUT
Table 8: Illustrative Example Budget Detail ($2023)Buildout of 3,500 units generates an estimated annual positive net fiscal
impact of $883,400 annually for the
General Fund:
Table 7: Illustrative Example Annual Net Fiscal Impacts at Buildout ($2023)
Source: City of Santa Rosa, Operations and Maintenance
Budget (Fiscal Year 2022-2023)
Property Tax is over 50% of revenue
Public Safety (police and fire
servic
es) are more than 70% of City
cost
Operating Revenues $ %
Property Tax $2,311,305 50.9%
Motor Vehicle License Fees $1,038,278 22. 8%
Real Property Transfer Tax $185,192 4.1%
Sales Tax $386,484 8.5%
Utility Use Tax $262,366 5.8%
Franchise Fees $264,566 5.8%
Business Licenses $1,929 0.0%
Licenses and Permits $58,008 1.3%
Fines and Forfeitures $37,029 0.8%
Total Revenues (Rounded) $4,545,200 100.0%
Operating Expenditures $ %
General Government $30,792 0.8%
Communications/ Intergov. Relations $5,324 0.1%
F
inance $26,522 0.7%
Human Resources $11,291 0.3%
Housing and Community Services $1,143 0.0%
Fire $1,100,886 30.1%
Planning & Economic Development $213,024 5.8%
Police $1,516,227 41.4%
Recreation & Community Engagement $142,989 3.9%
Transportation & Public Works $600,753 16.4%
Water $12,868 0.4%
Total Expenditures (Rounded) $3,661,800 100%
GF Item Total Buildout
GF Revenue $4,545,200
GF Expense $3,661,800
Net Impact $883,400
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ONE-TIME ECONOMIC IMPACTS (CONSTRUCTION)
Construction activity in the City of Santa Rosa supports the creation of one-time local economic benefits totaling $2.5 billion and 14,800 jobs or $245 million and 1,500 jobs per year for 10 years.*
Table 10: One-Time Annual Economic Impacts Assuming a 10-Year Buildout (2023$) Table 9: One-Time Economic Impacts of 3,500 Unit Construction at Buildout (2023$) Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 9,870 $896,178,500 $1,559,512,500
Indirect / Induced 4,795 $312,301,500 $893,917,500
Total Impact 14,770 $1,208,480,000 $2,453,430,000
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 987 $89,617,850 $155,951,250
Indirect / Induced 480 $31,230,150 $89,391,750
Total Impact 1,477 $120,848,000 $245,343,000
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
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ONGOING ECONOMIC IMPACTS (HOUSING)
Household spending from 3,500 new units will create 146 jobs and generates an annual economic output of $19.0 million, while operations will generate an additional 70 jobs and economic output of $23.7 million annually.
Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 132.3 $6.8M $16.6M
Indirect / Induced 13.2 $897.4K $2.4M
Total Impact 145.5 $7.7M $19.0M
Table 11: Ongoing Economic Impacts of Resident Spending at 3,500 Unit Buildout ($2023) Table 12: Annual Economic Impacts of Property Management ($2023) Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 35 $3.8M $17.4M
Indirect / Induced 35 $2.2M $3.5M
Total Impact 70 $5.9M $23.7M
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HOUSING UNLOCKS ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
Business Leader Interviews Key Themes:
Local businesses struggle with recruiting and retaining new employ
ees in large part due to housing constraints
Diversified housing products across a broad price spectrum will increa
se potential to maintain and grow a diverse local workforce Employers believe that the current housing shortage is constraining their
growth prospects
Increasing housing downtown would add downtown businesses, improv
e vibrancy, and create a district that increases recruiting competitiveness
Three of four interviewees stated that infill housing has the potential to improve Santa Rosa’s competitive position in the Bay Area economy
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DOWNTOWN HOUSING’S CATALYTIC POTENTIAL
EPS interviews with local business
representatives confirmed the notion
that new housing downtown has the
potential to spur citywide job growth
and economic activity. To illustrate the
concept, EPS quantified additional
local employment opportunities that
might be filled by residents of new
downtown housing units.
With between 3,000 and 4, 000 new
units downtown, EPS estimates the
City might gain 2,000 to 2,600 new
jobs. Assuming these new jobs are
distributed across the local economy
similarly to today, the analysis finds
340-450 jobs in the Health Care, 160-
210 jobs in Professional Services, and
110-140 jobs in Manufacturing,
among other industries.
0% 5% 10% 15%
Management
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Education
Information
Government Enterprises
Transportation, Warehousing
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Wholesale Trade
Finance, Insurance
Real Estate
Manufacturing
Accommodation, Food Services
Admin. Support, Waste Management
Other Services (except Public Admin.)
Administrative Government
Professional, Scientific, Tech. Services
Construction
Retail Trade
Health Care, Social Assistance
Figure 2: Employment by Industry in Santa Rosa
Percent of Total Jobs Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
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CATALYTIC POTENTIAL – MULTIPLIER EFFECT
The job creation enabled by downtown housing will have ripple effects in the local economy. The total economic output from the upper end of buildout (4,000 units) will result in economic output of $561 million, with an additional 400 indirect/induced jobs on top of 2,600 direct jobs.
Economic Impact Jobs Labor Income Economic Output
Direct Spending 2,000 - 2,600 $144.8M - $193.0M $366.6M - $488.8M Indirect / Induced 300 - 400 $20.2M - $26.9M $54.2M - $72.2M Total Impact 2,300 - 3,000 $165M - $220M $420.8M - $561M Table 13: Ongoing Economic Impacts of Job Growth ($2023) Sources: EPS & IMPLAN
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METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
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PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE.
This briefing presents details of the
Economic and Fiscal Impact Analysis
conducted by Economic & Planning
Systems, Inc. (EPS) for the City of Santa
Rosa. The analysis examines the potential
benefits and costs of infill housing
development in the City’s downtown. The
study evaluates the potential for new
housing to have a “catalytic” effect on
local economic development.
Fiscal Impact. Assessment of the tax
revenue and service cost factors for
market-rate and below-market rate units
constructed in Santa Rosa.
Economic Impact. Evaluation of
employment opportunities generated
through the construction and operation of
new units in Downtown Santa Rosa.
Economic Development. Consideration of
local advantages and disadvantages to
create new opportunities for business
expansion, job growth, and fiscal
sustainability.
Catalytic Potential. Outlook on potential
economic expansion from new infill
housing and downtown vibrancy, including
job creation, income growth, and spending
in the local economy.
KEY TERMS
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FISCAL IMPACTS OF NEW HOUSING
METHODOLOGY
EPS conducted the fiscal impact analysis
(FIA) using current real estate market and
tax factors in combination with the City of
Santa Rosa Operations and Maintenance
Budget data for Fiscal Year 2022-2023.
The FIA evaluates implications of new
housing for the City’s General Fund,
considering revenue streams such as
property and sales taxes and the cost of
delivering public services. The analysis
estimates fiscal impacts for market-rate
and below-market rate units across a range
of unit sizes.
Actual fiscal impacts will depend on a
variety of factors that cannot be predicted
with certainty, including future changes in
City or State budgeting practices, the
efficiency of services, and other factors.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Service Population: 1 resident is equivalent to 0.33
employee; assumes 0.01 employee per unit for
multi-family operations.
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio $312K $399K
1-Bed $330K $630K
2-Bed $393K $672K
Per Unit Household Sizes:
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio 1.00 1.00
1-Bed 1.50 1.50
2-Bed 3.00 2.00
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio $1,664 $1,900
1-Bed $1,783 $3,000
2-Bed $2,139 $3,200
Per Unit Monthly Rents:
Service Costs: Include general government, housing,
community services, public safety, planning, economic
development, recreation, community engagement,
transportation, public works, and water, totaling
$737 annually per resident ($246 per employee).
Per Unit Assessed Values:
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OTHER FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS
Property Tax 12.5% City share of 1% of base AV City Attorney 15% $2.89 per Ser vice Population Motor Vehicle License Fees City Council 15% $1.17 per Service Population Real Property Transfer Tax $2.00 per $1,000 in AV City Manager 15% $2.14 per Service Population Sales Tax 1.00% of Estimated Taxable Sales Com./ Intergov. Relations 15% $1.07 per Service Population Utility Use Tax $52.81 per Service Population Finance 15% $5.34 per Service Population Franchise Fees $53.26 per Service Population Human Resources 15% $2.27 per Service Population Business Licenses $55.11 per Employee Housing and Community 25% $0.23 per Resident Licenses and Permits $11.68 per Service Population Fire 90% $221.61 per Service Population Fines and Forfeitures $7.45 per Service Population Planning & Econ.Development 50% $42.88 per Service Population Charges for Services Cost Recovery Police 90% $305.22 per Service Population Intergovernmental Revenue Not Impacted Recreation & Engagement 50% $28.85 per Resident Cannabis Industry Tax Not Impacted Transportation & Public Works 75% $120.93 per Service Population Transient Occupancy Tax Not Impacted Water 75% $2.59 per Service Population Investment Earnings Not Impacted Non-Departmental n/a Not Estimated Miscellaneous Revenues Not Impacted
Estimating Factors for General
Fund Expenditures
% Variable
of Budget
General Fund
Expense Category
General Fund
Revenue Category
Estimating Factors for
General Fund Revenues
Case Study Approach
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Annual Household Incomes:
Assumes 30 percent housing cost burden including utility allowances.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF NEW HOUSING
The Economic Impact Analysis (EIA)
evaluates one-time construction-related
impacts and ongoing operational impacts
attributable to new housing. Inputs to the
analysis include local construction
investments and apartment operating
data from local developers. Impacts from
household spending rely on data from
Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer
Expenditure Survey.
EPS relies on IMPLAN (regional economic
modelling software) to estimate job
counts, labor income, and multiplier
impacts that result when spending
recirculates in the City economy.
METHODOLOGY KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Construction Spend: $457K per unit, excluding land.
Operational Spend: of $5K per unit, excluding
property tax.
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio $66.6K $83.1K
1-Bed $71.3K $128.5K
2-Bed $85.6K $138.8K
Total Annual Household Taxable Retail Spending:
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio $13,200 $16,900
1-Bed $14,500 $25,800
2-Bed $17,400 $27,900
Total Annual Household Taxable Retail Spending in
the City of Santa Rosa (50% of Total)
Unit Type BMR MR
Studio $6,600 $8,500
1-Bed $7,300 $12,900
2-Bed $8,700 $13,900
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CATALYTIC POTENTIAL: INTERVIEWS
EPS conducted 4 interviews with local
business experts, employers, and
stakeholders to assess potential
economic development outcomes that
could result from significant additional
housing in Downtown Santa Rosa. These
interviews provided important insights
into the City’s housing needs, the
possible effects of a revitalized
Downtown area, and the local economic
growth potential that might be realized
with new housing in the City.
Interviewees included a small business,
large-scale food equipment
manufacturer, a large technology
company, and a Business Organization.
The interviews serve as a foundation to
explore the potential economic effects of
infill housing Downtown.
Business type and trends
Workforce hiring and retention
Importance of housing to business
and/
or workforce
Housing needs
Other factors affecting business
compe
titiveness
Potential for catalytic impacts of
Down
town infill housing
METHODOLOGY KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED
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CATALYTIC POTENTIAL: ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
The interview results support the concept
that p otential citywide job growth and
economic activity from business expansion
can be enabled by new infill housing in
Downtown Santa Rosa.
EPS quantified these impacts by projecting
current City employment trends onto a
buildout scenario of 3,000-4,000 new
units. The projection uses the proportion
of existing working residents to estimate
the number of workers within the new
households. EPS uses recent commute
trends of City workers to determine the
total number of jobs generated at
buildout.
IMPLAN analysis estimates the industries
of these new jobs and the economic
impacts driven by this job growth.
METHODOLOGY ILLUSTRATIVE CALCULATION
Calculation Source
3,500 Net New Units a EPS Assumption
1.42 Average Residents/ Unit b EPS Assumption
4,956 Total Residents c = a * b Calculation
49.6% of Working Residents of Total
Population d
American
Community Survey
2021
2,459 Working Residents e = c * d Calculation
36.2% of Working Residents Living
and Employed in City f OntheMap, LEHD
2020
890 of Working Residents Living
and Employed in City g = e * f Calculation
38.7% of City Workers Living in City i OntheMap, LEHD
2020
2,300 Total Workers (i.e., Jobs) j = g / i Calculation
Assumption
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APPENDIX (DETAILED TABLES)
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table of Contents for Appendix (Detailed Tables)
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Table Number Title
Tables
Table 1 Annual Fiscal Impact Analysis per Unit Summary
Table 2 Annual Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary at 3,500 Unit Buildout Summary Table 3 Resident and Service Population Assumptions
Table 4 FY 2022-23 Budget Summary and Fiscal Impact Estimating Factors Table 6 Estimated per Unit Assessed Value Assumptions
Table 7 Property Tax and Property Tax In Lieu of VLF Revenue Table 8 Property Transfer Tax
Table 9 Annual Household Income Estimates
Table 10 Retail Sales Tax Estimate
Table 11 Revenue from Other Taxes and Fees
Table 12 General Government Operating Cost Estimates
Table 13 General Government Operating Cost Estimates by Unit Size Table 14 Economic Impact Analysis of Construction and Ongoing Operations Table 15 Economic Impact Analysis of Resident Spending
Table 16 City of Santa Rosa Population, Employment, and Service Population
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 1
Annual Fiscal Impact Analysis per Unit Summary
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item Market Rate BMR [1] Market Rate BMR [1] Market Rate BMR [1] General Fund Revenues $972 $788 $1,520 $891 $1,673 $1,214 $4,545,200 General Fund Expenditures ($740) ($740) ($1,108) ($1,108) ($1,477) ($2,214) ($3,661,800) Net Impact on General Fund $233 $48 $412 ($217) $197 ($1,000) $883,400 [1] Below-market-rate analysis is based on rental rates for low-income households (at or below 80 percent of AMI). [2] Assumes 8.0 percent of total program is affordable to low-income households consistent with Municipal Code 21-02.050.
Per Unit
3,500 Unit
Buildout [2]
Studio 2 Bedroom1 Bedroom
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 2
Annual Fiscal Impact Analysis Summary at 3,500 Unit Buildout Summary Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) General Fund Category 3,500 Unit Buildout
Operating Revenues
Property Tax $2,311,305
Motor Vehicle License Fees $1,038,278
Real Property Transfer Tax $185,192
Sales Tax $386,484
Utility Use Tax $262,366
Franchise Fees $264,566
Business Licenses $1,929
Licenses and Permits $58,008
Fines and Forfeitures $37,029
Total Revenues (Rounded) $4,545,200
Operating Expenditures
City Attorney $14,337
City Council $5,827
City Manager $10,627
Communications/ Intergovernmental Relations $5,324
Finance $26,522
Human Resources $11,291
Housing and Community Services $1,143
Fire $1,100,886
Planning & Economic Development $213,024
Police $1,516,227
Recreation & Community Engagement $142,989
Transportation & Public Works $600,753
Water $12,868
Total Expenditures (Rounded) $3,661,800
Net Fiscal Impact per New Unit (Rounded) $883,400
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 3
Resident and Service Population Assumptions
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Land Use
Service
Population [3]
PER UNIT
Market-Rate Units
Average 1.50 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.50 Studio 1.00 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.00 1BR 1.50 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.50
2BR 2.00 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 2.00
Below-Market-Rate Units
Average 1.83 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.84 Studio 1.00 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.00 1BR 1.50 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.50
2BR 3.00 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 3.00
3,500 UNIT BUILDOUT
Per Unit 1.42 Residents/Unit 0.01 Employees per Unit 1.42 Total 4,956 Residents 35 Employees 4,968
[1] Market-rate assumptions are based on EPS data derived from comparable projects. Below-market-rate assumptions are based on the City's published Affordable Housing Program.
[2] The number of employees for an apartment building can vary depending on the size of the building. [3] Service population is the sum of total residential population and one third of total employment, representing a measure of public service demand in which an employee generates one third the demand of a resident.
Sources: City of Santa Rosa Affordable Housing Program Rents, IMPLAN, Effective June 2022; Economic & Planning Systems Residents [1] Employees [2]
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 4
FY 2022-23 Budget Summary and Fiscal Impact Estimating Factors Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) FY 2022-23
Proposed Budget
Operating Revenues
Property Tax $34,695,000 12.5% City share of 1% of base AV Motor Vehicle License Fees $16,509,103
Real Property Transfer Tax $5,000,000 $2.00 per $1,000 in AV Sales Tax $74,745,226 1.00% of Estimated Taxable Sales
Utility Use Tax $10,674,100 $52.81 per Service Population Franchise Fees $10,763,600 $53.26 per Service Population Business Licenses $4,560,150 $55.11 per Employee
Licenses and Permits $2,360,000 $11.68 per Service Population Fines and Forfeitures $1,506,500 $7.45 per Service Population Charges for Services $21,393,337
Intergovernmental Revenue $5,150,640
Cannabis Industry Tax $1,800,000
Transient Occupancy Tax $5,750,000
Investment Earnings $600,000
Miscellaneous Revenues $1,995,000
Total Revenues $197,502,656
Sources: City of Santa Rosa, Operations and Maintenance Budget (Fiscal Year 2022-2023) Not Impacted
Not Impacted
Not Impacted
Not Impacted
Not Impacted
General Fund Revenue Category
Estimating Factors for
General Fund Revenues
Case Study Approach
Cost Recovery/ Not Estimated
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Table 5
FY 2022-23 Budget Summary and Fiscal Impact Estimating Factors Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) FY 2022-23 % Variable Estimating Factors for
Proposed Budget of Budget General Fund Expenditures
Operating Expenditures
City Attorney $3,888,597 15% per Service Population
City Council $1,580,544 15% per Service Population
City Manager $2,882,370 15% per Service Population
Communications/ Intergovernmental Relations $1,444,055 15% per Service Population Finance $7,193,577 15% per Service Population
Human Resources $3,062,482 15% per Service Population
Housing and Community Services $161,000 25% per Resident Fire $49,764,957 90% per Service Population
Planning & Economic Development $17,333,340 50% per Service Population Police $68,540,250 90% per Service Population
Recreation & Community Engagement $10,070,591 50% per Resident Transportation & Public Works $32,588,077 75% per Service Population Water $698,045 75% per Service Population
Non-Departmental ($8,942,425) n/a Not Estimated
Total Expenditures $190,265,460
Sources: City of Santa Rosa, Operations and Maintenance Budget (Fiscal Year 2022-2023) General Fund Expense Category
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Table 6
Estimated per Unit Assessed Value Assumptions
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Land Use Total Units
PER UNIT
Market-Rate Units [1]
Studio 1 $399,000 per unit
1 Bedroom 1 $630,000 per unit
2 Bedroom 1 $672,000 per unit
Below-Market-Rate Units [2]
Studio 1 $312,000 per unit
1 Bedroom 1 $330,000 per unit
2 Bedroom 1 $393,000 per unit
3,500 UNIT BUILDOUT [3]
Market-Rate Units [1] 3,220 $546,000 per unit
Below-Market-Rate Units [2] 280 $335,000 per unit
Total Assessed Value 3,500 $1,851,920,000
[1] Market-rate assessed value based on rents for new construction in Downtown Santa Rosa. Assumes operating expenses at 30% of gross operating income, and a 4.0 percent capitalization rate. [2] Below-market-rate assessed value based on maximum allowable rents (net utilities) for low-income (80% of AMI) households in the City of Santa Rosa, Effective June 2022. Assumes operating expenses at 30% of gross operating income, and a 4.0 percent capitalization rate.
[3] Reflects a weighted average. Assumes a 5.0 percent vacancy rate.
Sources: City of Santa Rosa Affordable Housing Program Rents, Effective June 2022; City of Santa Rosa Utilities Allowance Schedule, Effective May 2022; CoStar; Economic & Planning Systems, Inc.
Assessed Valuation per Unit
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 7
Property Tax and Property Tax In Lieu of VLF Revenue
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Property Tax and Estimating Factors MR BMR MR BMR MR BMR Property Tax
Net Assessed Value $399,000 $312,000 $630,000 $330,000 $672,000 $393,000 $1,851,920,000 Property Tax 1.0% Base Property Tax Rate $3,990 $3,120 $6,300 $3,300 $6,720 $3,930 $18,519,200 General Fund Property Tax Revenue [1] 12.5% Allocation to General Fund $498 $389 $786 $412 $839 $490 $2,311,305 Property Tax In Lieu of VLF
Existing Citywide Property Tax in Lieu of VLF
Citywide Assessed Value [2]
Percentage Increase in Citywide Assessed Value 0.001% 0.001% 0.002% 0.001% 0.002% 0.001% 6.3% New General Fund Property Tax In Lieu of VLF $224 $175 $353 $185 $377 $220 $1,038,278 [1] Property tax allocation rate based on Downtown tax rate areas including 004-297, 004-296, 004-214, 004-057, 004-051, 004-023, 004-300, 004-055, 004-299, 004-053, 004-001, adjusted to reflect State ERAF contributions.
[2] Provided by the City of Santa Rosa in May 2023 using incorporated City boundaries.
Sources: City of Santa Rosa, Operations and Maintenance Budget (Fiscal Year 2022-2023); County of Sonoma Assessor's Office.
Per Unit
3,500
Unit Buildout
2 Bedroom
$16,509,103
$29,446,398,440
Studio 1 Bedroom
see Table 6
Assumption/
Estimating Factor
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 8
Property Transfer Tax
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item MR BMR MR BMR MR BMR
Estimated Value $399,000 $312,000 $630,000 $330,000 $672,000 $393,000 $1,851,920,000 Transfer Tax per $1,000 of Assessed Valuation
Average Turnover [1] per Year
Total Property Transfer Tax to General Fund $39.90 $31.20 $63.00 $33.00 $67.20 $39.30 $185,192 3,500 Unit
Buildout
$2.00
5.0%
[1] EPS assumption based on long-term averages. A turnover rate of 5 percent suggests that investment properties sell approximately once every 20 years.
Per Unit
Studio 1-Bedroom 2-Bedroom
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 9
Annual Household Income Estimates
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Land Use
Monthly Rent +
Utilities per Unit [1]
Annual Unit
Rent + Utilities [2]
Avg. HH
Income [3]
Market Rate Housing
Studio $2,078 $24,936 $83,120
1-Br $3,212 $38,544 $128,480
2-Br $3,469 $41,628 $138,760
Below-Market-Rate
Studio $1,664 $19,968 $66,560
1-Br $1,783 $21,396 $71,320
2-Br $2,139 $25,668 $85,560
Market Rate Housing $2,810 $33,718 $112,392
Below-Market-Rate $2,016 $24,197 $80,656
[1] Includes utility allowances as stated in the City's Utility Allowance Schedule, Effective May 2022.
[2] Multiplied by twelve months.
[3] Incomes assume a 30 percent housing cost burden, consistent with affordable housing income eligibility standards.
Sources: CoStar; City of Santa Rosa Affordable Housing Program Rents.
PER UNIT
3,500 UNIT BUILDOUT
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 10
Retail Sales Tax Estimate
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item Market Rate BMR
PER UNIT
Project Households Retail Purchases in Santa Rosa
Estimated Annual Household Income
Studio $83,120 $66,560
1-BR $128,480 $71,320
2-BR $138,760 $85,560
Household Taxable Retail Spending as % of Income [1] MR BMR Studio 20.3% 19.86% $16,898 $13,218
1-BR 20.1% 20.33% $25,811 $14,499
2-BR 20.1% 20.33% $27,877 $17,394
Household Retail Spending in Santa Rosa [2]
Studio $8,449 $6,609
1-BR $12,906 $7,250
2-BR $13,938 $8,697
Net New Retail Sales Tax Captured in Santa Rosa
Studio $84 $66
1-BR $129 $72
2-BR $139 $87
3,500 UNIT BUILDOUT
Project Households Retail Purchases in Santa Rosa
Number of Units 3,220 280
$112,392 $80,656
$361,902,240 $22,583,680
MR BMR
20.1% 20.33% $72,705,731 $4,591,168
Household Retail Spending in Santa Rosa [2] 50% of retail expenditures $36,352,865 $2,295,584 Net New Retail Sales Captured in Santa Rosa 1.00% of Taxable Sales [3] $363,529 $22,956 Total Net New Retail Sales Tax Captured in Santa Rosa $386,484 [1] Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey for different income ranges. [3]
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CoStar
1.00% of Taxable Sales [3]
Assumptions
In November 2020, voters approved Measure Q (the combination of Measure P/N and Measure O-Temporary Fire Relief). Measure Q is a fifty-cent sales tax measure that expires in June 2030 and goes to the City's General Fund. This measure is not included within the analysis.
See Table 9
50.0% of retail
expenditures
Estimated Annual Household Income See Table 9
Total Household Income at Buildout
Household Taxable Retail Spending as % of Income [1]
[2] City sales capture based on local retail supply relative to the County's retail supply.
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 11
Revenue from Other Taxes and Fees
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Other Revenue Sources [1] Market Rate BMR Market Rate BMR Market Rate BMR Utilty Use Tax
2022-2023 Revenue to General Fund $10,674,100
Service Population 202,105 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 4,968 Revenue per Existing Service Population $52.81
Revenue per Unit $52.99 $52.99 $79.40 $79.40 $105.81 $158.62 $262,366 Franchise Fees
2022-2023 Revenue to General Fund $10,763,600
Service Population 202,105 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 4,968 Revenue per Service Population $53.26
Revenue per Unit $53.44 $53.44 $80.06 $80.06 $106.69 $159.95 $264,566 Business License Tax
2022-2023 Revenue to General Fund $4,560,150
Employees 82,745 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 35
Revenue per Existing Employee $55.11
Revenue per Unit $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55 $1,929 Licenses and Permits
2022-2023 Revenue to General Fund $2,360,000
Service Population 202,105 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 4,968 Revenue per Existing Service Population $11.68
Revenue per Unit $11.72 $11.72 $17.55 $17.55 $23.39 $35.07 $58,008 Fines and Forfeitures
2022-2023 Revenue to General Fund $1,506,500
Service Population 202,105 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50 2.00 3.00 4,968 Revenue per Existing Service Population $7.45
Revenue per Unit $7.48 $7.48 $11.21 $11.21 $14.93 $22.39 $37,029 Total Other Revenues per Unit $126.17 $126.17 $188.77 $188.77 $251.38 $376.58 $623,898 Per Unit
3,500 Unit
Buildout
Existing
Estimating Factors
Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 12
General Government Operating Cost Estimates
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item
City General
Fund Expenses
Percent
Variable [1]
Variable
Expenses
Per Capita
Expense
City Attorney $3,888,597 15% $583,290 202,105 Serv. Pop. $2.89 City Council $1,580,544 15% $237,082 202,105 Serv. Pop. $1.17 City Manager $2,882,370 15% $432,356 202,105 Serv. Pop. $2.14 Communications/ Intergovernmental Relations $1,444,055 15% $216,608 202,105 Serv. Pop. $1.07 Finance $7,193,577 15% $1,079,037 202,105 Serv. Pop. $5.34 Human Resources $3,062,482 15% $459,372 202,105 Serv. Pop. $2.27 Housing and Community Services $161,000 25% $40,250 174,523 Resident Pop. $0.23 Fire $49,764,957 90% $44,788,461 202,105 Serv. Pop. $221.61 Planning & Economic Development $17,333,340 50% $8,666,670 202,105 Serv. Pop. $42.88 Police $68,540,250 90% $61,686,225 202,105 Serv. Pop. $305.22 Recreation & Community Engagement $10,070,591 50% $5,035,296 174,523 Resident Pop. $28.85 Transportation & Public Works $32,588,077 75% $24,441,058 202,105 Serv. Pop. $120.93 Water $698,045 75% $523,534 202,105 Serv. Pop. $2.59
Non-Departmental ($8,942,425)
Total General Government $190,265,460 $737.20
[1] Percentage of costs that increase in proportion to growing service population, as opposed to fixed costs or costs recovered through fees or charges.
Estimating
Factors
Not Applicable
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 13
General Government Operating Cost Estimates by Unit Size Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item Market Rate BMR Market Rate BMR Market Rate BMR
City Attorney $2.89 /Serv. Pop. $2.90 $2.90 $4.34 $4.34 $5.78 $8.67 $14,337 City Council $1.17 /Serv. Pop. $1.18 $1.18 $1.76 $1.76 $2.35 $3.52 $5,827 City Manager $2.14 /Serv. Pop. $2.15 $2.15 $3.22 $3.22 $4.29 $6.42 $10,627 Communications/ Intergov. Relations $1.07 /Serv. Pop. $1.08 $1.08 $1.61 $1.61 $2.15 $3.22 $5,324 Finance $5.34 /Serv. Pop. $5.36 $5.36 $8.03 $8.03 $10.70 $16.03 $26,522 Human Resources $2.27 /Serv. Pop. $2.28 $2.28 $3.42 $3.42 $4.55 $6.83 $11,291 Housing and Community Services $0.23 /Resident Pop. $0.23 $0.23 $0.35 $0.35 $0.46 $0.69 $1,143 Fire $221.61 /Serv. Pop. $222.35 $222.35 $333.15 $333.15 $443.96 $665.57 $1,100,886 Planning & Economic Development $42.88 /Serv. Pop. $43.03 $43.03 $64.47 $64.47 $85.91 $128.79 $213,024 Police $305.22 /Serv. Pop. $306.24 $306.24 $458.85 $458.85 $611.46 $916.68 $1,516,227 Recreation & Community Engagement $28.85 /Resident Pop. $28.85 $28.85 $43.28 $43.28 $57.70 $86.56 $142,989 Transportation & Public Works $120.93 /Serv. Pop. $121.34 $121.34 $181.80 $181.80 $242.27 $363.20 $600,753 Water $2.59 /Serv. Pop. $2.60 $2.60 $3.89 $3.89 $5.19 $7.78 $12,868 Total General Government $737.20 $739.56 $739.56 $1,108.16 $1,108.16 $1,476.76 $2,213.96 $3,661,820 Per Unit
3,500 Unit
Buildout
2 BedroomPer Capita
Expense
Studio 1 Bedroom
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 14
Economic Impact Analysis of Construction and Ongoing Operations Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Economic Impacts per Unit
Employment
(Job Years) [1]
Labor
Income [2]
Economic
Output
One-Time Construction
Direct 2.85 $256,051 $445,575
Indirect 0.49 $33,045 $94,679
Induced 0.88 $56,184 $160,727
Total 4.22 $345,280 $700,980
Ongoing Operations
Direct 0.01 $1,071 $4,964
Indirect 0.00 $349 $1,011
Induced 0.00 $277 $792
Total 0.01 $1,697 $6,767
[1] Job-year refers to a unit of labor demand or employment equivalent to one full-time job for one year. employees) and Proprietor Income (payments to self-employed individuals and unincorporated business owners.
Source: IMPLAN
[2] Labor Income comprises Employee Compensation (wages, salaries, benefits, and payroll taxes of
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 15
Economic Impact Analysis of Resident Spending
Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Ongoing Resident Spend Employment [1] Labor Income [2] Economic Output
PER UNIT
Market Rate per Unit Spend
Studio
Direct 0.03 $1,488 $3,643
Indirect 0.00 $132 $367
Induced 0.00 $65 $164
Total 0.03 $1,685 $4,174
1-Bedroom
Direct 0.04 $2,262 $5,539
Indirect 0.00 $200 $559
Induced 0.00 $99 $249
Total 0.05 $2,562 $6,347
2-Bedroom
Direct 0.05 $2,443 $5,982
Indirect 0.00 $216 $603
Induced 0.00 $107 $269
Total 0.05 $2,767 $6,855
Below Market Rate Unit Spend
Studio
Direct 0.02 $1,177 $2,882
Indirect 0.00 $104 $291
Induced 0.00 $52 $130
Total 0.025 $1,333 $3,302
1-Bedroom
Direct 0.02 $1,277 $3,126
Indirect 0.00 $113 $315
Induced 0.00 $56 $140
Total 0.027 $1,446 $3,582
2-Bedroom
Direct 0.03 $1,531 $3,750
Indirect 0.00 $136 $378
Induced 0.00 $67 $169
Total 0.033 $1,734 $4,297
3,500 UNIT BUILDOUT
Direct 132.27 $6,776,092 $16,592,036
Indirect 7.94 $599,870 $1,673,764
Induced 5.29 $297,504 $745,756
Total 145.50 $7,673,467 $19,011,557
[1] Job-year refers to a unit of labor demand or employment equivalent to one full-time job for one year. employees) and Proprietor Income (payments to self-employed individuals and unincorporated business owners.
Source: IMPLAN
[2] Labor Income comprises Employee Compensation (wages, salaries, benefits, and payroll taxes of
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
Table 16
City of Santa Rosa Population, Employment, and Service Population Santa Rosa Downtown Residential Infill Fiscal and Economic Impact Analysis (EPS# 221050) Item Amount Sources
Housing Units 71,563 DOF 2023
Occupied Households 68,044 DOF 2023
Population 174,523 DOF 2023
Persons/Household 2.56 DOF 2023
Jobs 82,745 JobsEQ, 2022 Average
Service Population [1] 202,105 DOF 2023 / JobsEQ 2022
employment.
Sources: JobsEQ and State of California Department of Finance. [1] Daytime population is calculated by adding total residential population and one-third of total
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT
REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS
PUBLIC FINANCE
LAND USE & TRANSPORTATION
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT &
REVITALIZATION
FISCAL & ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
HOUSING POLICY
PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS (P3)
PARKS & OPEN SPACE ECONOMICS
EPS
ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT