CITY OF SANTA ROSA:
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT SUBCOMMITTEE
PRESENTATION
SANTA ROSA, CA DECEMBER 2025
Robert Eyler, PhD
President, Economic Forensics and Analytics Inc.
[email protected]
1 US Macro Forecast: Business Climate
These data are from November 2025: Data from Q3 2025
Bottom Line: No recession in forecast…yet
(15% for 2026, less than previous quarter)
Real
GDP (%)
Unemployment
Rate (%)
Core PCE
Inflation (%)
Previous New Previous New Previous New
2025 1.7 1.9 4.2 4.2 3.0 2.9
2026 1.6 1.8 4.5 4.5 2.5 2.7
2027 2.1 2.1 4.4 4.4 2.1 2.3
2028 1.8 1.8 4.3 4.3 N/A N/A
Source: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank
3 60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Dec-18
May-19
Oct-19
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Sep-22
Feb-23
Jul-23
Dec-23
May-24
Oct-24
Mar-25
Aug-25
Number of Workers
Labor Force Santa Rosa Residential Employment Santa Rosa Residential Labor Force and Employment Levels
January 2016 to August 2025
Santa Rosa unemployment
rate = 4.5%
Sonoma County = 4.5%
California 5.5%
Source: California EDD
4 -2.8%
-1.2% -0.7% -0.8%
-3.8%
-7.1%
13.7%
-1.3% -1.9% -3.0%
-6.1%
2.1%
-4.2%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%% Change
Taxable Sales, % Change from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025 (Annualized Totals) Current Dollars, Santa Rosa, Sonoma County otherwise, California, and Comparison Areas
Housing Markets: Forecast to October 2026, % Change in Median Home Prices, Napa and Selected Comparison Areas, as of October 2025 5 Source: ZillowTM Research
-1.4% -1.6%
0.0%
-3.9%
-2.1%
-5.3%
-1.8%
-0.8%
1.6%
0.5%
1.5%
0.5%
0.8%
1.4%
0.2%
0.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Santa Rosa Sonoma County Napa County SF
Occupancy Rates and Average Daily Rates, Napa,
July 2020 to Sept 2025, Monthly, Six-Month Moving Average 6 Source: CoStar
Jobs Forecast to 2030: Santa Rosa Compared to Sonoma
County, Number of Workers (+5,350 in Santa Rosa overall) 7 1,540
821 793
533 459
1,188
2,572
1,664
884
1,050 1,154
3,592
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Healthcare Real Estate/Leasing Transport/Logistics Finance Employment Services/Waste/Remediation
All Other Industries
Santa Rosa Forecast Sonoma County Forecast
Santa Rosa: Things to Watch as 2026 Approaches
• Taxable sales across the city economy during holiday season: a sign of things to come? • Business entry and exit: macroeconomic pressures on smaller businesses • Healthcare’s dominance to 2030: broader effects
• National- and state-level issues: watching for light stagflation symptoms Four key items for Santa Rosa:
• Continued housing market pressure: rents still rising as housing prices flatten • Retail pressures: tariffs flow through local retail as a regressive tax • Can manufacturing rise and diversify in Santa Rosa as a hub? • Wine industry concerns and Santa Rosa: differences between ag and visitors 8