Session Agenda
1. Short-Range Transit Plan (SRTP) introduction, context, and goals
2. CityBus system performance overview
3. Transit Fund financial status update
4. Proposed SRTP planning approach
5. Next Steps
6. Council questions and feedback
2 What is a Short-Range Transit Plan?
• Required by MTC and responsive to
regional guidelines
• Outlines 10-year service, financial, and
capital plans for the transit system
• Supports grant applications and funding
requests
• Provides policymakers and transit
managers with a roadmap for the transit
system that is informed by in-depth
analysis and public engagement
3 Context for SRTP Update
• Changes in travel and traffic patterns are driving the need for service changes to improve system performance.
• MASCOTS implementation provides the opportunity for CityBus to connect more powerfully with the regional transit network. • Local bus integration efforts enable CityBus to plan jointly with Sonoma County Transit and other partners.
• Fiscal cliff is in sight: service changes will need to be cost-neutral at best; plan should include a 10% service reduction scenario for FY28. 4 Goals for SRTP Update
1. Address growing service reliability issues
and ensure core system is strong
2. Build on MASCOTS by improving CityBus
connectivity to SMART and the regional
transit network, and integration with
Sonoma County Transit
3. Adopt a service plan that is financially
sustainable and responsive to significant
fiscal challenges in the Transit Fund
5 System Performance Overview
6 System Performance: Revenue Hours
Due to operational
and financial
constraints, total
revenue hours
remain at 83% of the
pre-pandemic level.
7 System Performance: Ridership
Ridership has
recovered in tandem
with restoration of
service hours, with a
ceiling due to
reduced hours.
8 System Performance: Productivity
Productivity is good
overall, with most
routes carrying more
than 15 passengers
per hour on average.
During peak periods
CityBus can serve
as many as 100
passengers on a
single trip.
9 System Performance: On-time Performance
Schedule adherence
is below standards,
and getting worse.
“On time” is defined as the
bus arriving at each major
stop within 5 minutes of the
scheduled time
10 Financial Status Update
11 Transit Fund Operating Revenue
• Transit Fund supported by
federal, state, and local grants
• Heavily reliant on sales tax-
based revenue sources: 70%
of operating budget
• State Transportation
Development Act (TDA) funds
are last dollar in
• TDA balance (held at MTC)
functions as capital and
operating reserve
TDA (sales tax)
51%
Federal 5307
formula
13%
Go Sonoma (sales tax)
10%
STA (sales tax on diesel)
9%
TDA Reserves
8%
Direct fare revenue
4%
Grants for
fare-free
3%
AHSC
2%
City General Fund
0.15%
12 Recent Revenue and Cost Impacts
• Remaining COVID-relief funding expended in FY24
• Staff Salaries and Benefits make up 65% of Transit operating budget; salary/benefits costs increased by 22% between FY23 and FY26 • 25% increase in paratransit costs with new contract in FY25 • ZEV transition has been expensive; higher than expected costs for vehicles, charging, maintenance of facilities and equipment • Transit operating grants have not kept up with costs
• Sales tax revenues have plateaued
• 16% drop in value of TDA sales tax since 2000
13 Transit Fund Reserves
• Transit reserves are TDA dollars held at MTC
• Operating reserve: at least 15% of operating budget
• Capital fund: TDA banked over time for capital projects and local match for federal/state grants
• Current pressures on reserves:
• Expect to use reserves for operations in FY27 and subsequent years based on revenue trends
• FY27 is the second year that no TDA will be banked for the capital fund (goal is to set aside $1M/year)
14 Projected “Fiscal Cliff”
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Ideal Overall Reserve Actual / Likely
Overall Reserve
Annual Expenses
Bus
purchase
Bus
purchase
15 Proposed Service Planning Approach
16 A Key Policy Trade-off: Coverage vs. Productivity
Coverage:
Slower, lower-frequency service everywhere
Productivity:
Frequency and speed in high-demand corridors
Low Ridership
but really important to the people who use it
High Ridership
but less service across the city
17 Principles of Transit Service Design
• Frequent Service: A coherent frequent network best serves riders. • Direct Route Alignments: Direct routes reduce travel time. • Bi-directional Service: Long segments of one-way operation (loops) take riders out of their way.
• Strong Anchor Points: Routes connecting multiple ridership nodes perform well and best serve riders.
• Spacing Between Routes: Duplicative service ties up resources. • Connectivity Between Routes: Connections should be as seamless as possible.
18 Opportunities
➢ Significantly improve systemwide on-time performance
• Re-time routes to reflect current traffic conditions and travel time • Make changes to improve schedule adherence:
• Adjust route alignments
• Connect routes that are “tight” with routes that have extra time • Address sources of delay (bus stop placement, signal timing, etc.) • Add cycle time to routes—at an additional cost
Keeps system reliable for riders; prevents downward spiral of ridership loss Supports effective transfers to regional transit network 19 Opportunities
➢ Re-invest in Route 1 as the backbone
of the CityBus system
• Add cycle time on weekday afternoons
(45 min.→ 60 min.)
• Re-establish weekday 15-minute
frequency
Addresses rider pass-ups during peak periods
Ensures strong connections to key destinations
Rationalizes service for future integration with SCT
20 Opportunities
➢ Use strategic route connections (interlines) to significantly expand one-seat access to SMART and crosstown connectivity • Riders can count on consistently-connected route pairs throughout the service day
• Eliminates need to transfer at the Transit Mall
• Isolates delays to ensure they do not cascade through the system Builds on MASCOTS to provide integrated local and regional transit network Improves connectivity and access for all riders, regardless of whether they are traveling to SMART
21 Behind the Curtain of Scheduling: Interlining
22 Benefits of Strategic Interlines
23 Constraints
• Financially-constrained plan: no additional buses can be added within existing resources; approach will incorporate planning for likely future service cuts
• Expansion of geographic coverage not recommended at this time • Hours must be reallocated within the system to improve on-time performance without adding operating cost
• Lowest-productivity routes (10, 16, 18) will be the first place we look • Alternative service models (deviated fixed-route, microtransit) on the table, but not major cost-savers
24 Route 10: North City Connector
• Serves important destinations
in northern Santa Rosa
• 60-minute frequency
• Southern segment between
Transit Mall and Coddingtown
has low ridership
25 Route 16: Oakmont
• Local deviated fixed-route
service with one shopping
trip/weekday
• Ridership has not recovered
post-COVID and is still
declining
• Partner (Oakmont Village
Association) exploring other
options
26 Route 18: East Circulator
• Serves several destinations in SE Santa Rosa, but very low ridership • Most ridership originates from Vintage at Bennett Valley senior housing and Montgomery Village
• 60-minute frequency with truncated service day
27 Next Steps
• Incorporate Council feedback from Study Session
• Begin public engagement in August:
• Focus will be on routes with proposed changes
• Range of outreach methods including targeted in-person outreach at key stops and onboard buses, online survey, stakeholder engagement and meetings
• Return to Council with initial recommendations in early Fall • Adopt short-term service changes in October-November
• Implement short-term service changes in January 2027
• Systemwide service reduction would not occur until FY28 • Complete full MTC SRTP update process in 2027
28 Questions?
29